WEBVTT - Businessweek Extra - Carlyle’s David Rubenstein

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<v Speaker 1>Face is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Jason

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<v Speaker 1>Kelly from Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Extra podcast. Carol, This week I caught up in Berlin

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<v Speaker 1>with David Rubinstein. You've heard of him, Yeah, I have, right,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a great name. You want to hear what

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<v Speaker 1>he has to say about the environment, and certainly a

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<v Speaker 1>really well named known and certainly a really well known

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<v Speaker 1>name to the world of private equity. He certainly is

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<v Speaker 1>we should mention, of course, he is the host of

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<v Speaker 1>the David Rubinstein Show on Bloomberg Televisions. We get to

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<v Speaker 1>know him that way as well. He mentions his show

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<v Speaker 1>in passing Take a listen. So this is mecca for

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<v Speaker 1>private equity every year, Berlin, of all places. What are

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<v Speaker 1>you learning, if anything, kind of as you walk around

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<v Speaker 1>and talk to people, Well, I'm learning how much I've

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<v Speaker 1>aged because I've seen seeing some of these same people

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<v Speaker 1>for twenty years, and they look younger and I look older.

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<v Speaker 1>So I've recognized that if you go to these conferences

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<v Speaker 1>long enough, you actually actually get to see people in

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<v Speaker 1>a different light. Seen these people when they were young,

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<v Speaker 1>now they're middleways, now they're older. But to be very serious, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>private equity seems to be in pretty good shape. There's

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<v Speaker 1>no real concern about the global economy here. People think

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<v Speaker 1>that fundraising is a pretty good shape. It's pretty easy

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<v Speaker 1>to raise money. Now you have to put the time

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<v Speaker 1>into it. Put the money is available. People want to

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<v Speaker 1>give money to private equity firms, and there are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of new private equity firms and are raising money

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<v Speaker 1>with modest track records. So right now, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>industry is feeling pretty good about itself. Well, and let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about that, because there is a very sort of

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<v Speaker 1>good warm feeling here in Berlin. The weather it's nice out.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe that's helping contribute to it. But you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>the meantime, you have President Trump and Kim over in Vietnam,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, trying to sort out their differences. You've got

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<v Speaker 1>Theresa May and Parliament, you know, trying to convince people

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<v Speaker 1>that she has the right deal for Brexit, numerous other

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<v Speaker 1>things happening around the globe. Is private equally a new

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<v Speaker 1>or ignorant or what's going on? Well, I wouldn't say

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<v Speaker 1>immune or ignorant. I would say obviously this kind of

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<v Speaker 1>setting is a bit of a bubble because people are

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<v Speaker 1>here to sell things, people here to buy things. But

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<v Speaker 1>private equity does reflect the global economy and does reflect

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<v Speaker 1>some of the concerns that we all have. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think right now people feel fairly a bulliant about their returns,

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<v Speaker 1>fairly good about their ability to raise new money. And

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<v Speaker 1>remember we're not in a recession anywhere in the world really,

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<v Speaker 1>and as a result, people are numbers look pretty good.

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<v Speaker 1>So if the economy were to go down, then people

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<v Speaker 1>won't feel so good. I contrast this a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>with Davos. Davos UH this year, people were a little downbeat.

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<v Speaker 1>They thought that economy was going to head down. The

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<v Speaker 1>American government official didn't show up. That put a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a damper on some of the evact events

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<v Speaker 1>that there. But generally Davos was probably not as a

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<v Speaker 1>bulliant as this place is today. It was only a

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<v Speaker 1>month ago. Did something change in the world fantastic character. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the people here are folks on private equity. There at Davosh,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got government leaders who worry about different issues. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a different kind of setting. But I would say when

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<v Speaker 1>you meet these people here today in private equity UH Mecca,

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<v Speaker 1>which is what some people would call it. It's really

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<v Speaker 1>a fairly happy place. People think that there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of money to be made and a lot of good

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<v Speaker 1>deals out there because one of the things that makes

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<v Speaker 1>them happy is they've got happy investors. At this point,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of money is going back to the big institutions,

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<v Speaker 1>the sovereign wealth funds. You talk to those guys all

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<v Speaker 1>the time. Why do they continue to pour money. Is

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<v Speaker 1>it just for the returns or is there something else

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<v Speaker 1>going well? There's no doubt that private equity has yielded

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<v Speaker 1>very good returns, and the sovereign wealth investors have so

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<v Speaker 1>much money they have to put it out with firms

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<v Speaker 1>that are able to consume that money and get good returns.

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<v Speaker 1>I think generally people are happy, think, but their biggest

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<v Speaker 1>concern is they're getting money back more rapidly than they

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<v Speaker 1>know what to do with it, so they have to

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<v Speaker 1>deploy it more quickly than they thought they were going to.

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<v Speaker 1>This is not a place, though, that people are that

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<v Speaker 1>worried today about economy falling apart or something in the

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<v Speaker 1>next year or so. Right now, people are feeling pretty

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<v Speaker 1>good about things. So let's talk about that money flow. Because,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, a lot of money is going back

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<v Speaker 1>to limited partners. That means they're trying to put more

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<v Speaker 1>and more money to work. How much do you worry

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<v Speaker 1>about the overhang the dry powder? I mean approaching two

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<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars at this point, there's no out there. There's

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<v Speaker 1>more dry path than there's ever been. But remember I

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<v Speaker 1>I tell people, you don't go to jail if you

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<v Speaker 1>don't invest the money. People are not gonna put money

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<v Speaker 1>out and bad deals because you typically have your own

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<v Speaker 1>money at risk with this, and you recognize that, and

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<v Speaker 1>you can hurt your track record if you put money

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<v Speaker 1>out when it's not good to do so. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you have a fund, then you have to invest only

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<v Speaker 1>seventy five of it. It's not terrible not to invest

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<v Speaker 1>the whole fund if you can't find good deals. So

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<v Speaker 1>people are worried about uh not you know, wasting money.

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<v Speaker 1>It's right for it, but I don't think it's been

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<v Speaker 1>a big issue in the industry right now. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about what you're up to these days. You uh

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<v Speaker 1>seated as it were, the CEO job, the co CEO

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<v Speaker 1>job to Q suddenly and Glenn Young can they're running

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<v Speaker 1>the firm day to day Yet as you pointed out

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<v Speaker 1>to me earlier, you're still one of the largest shareholders,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the largest shareholder. A lot of the economics still

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<v Speaker 1>uh come to you. So you have no lack of influence.

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<v Speaker 1>But what does your world look like at this point? Well, um,

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<v Speaker 1>we thought Bill Comma and Dan Daniello and I that

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<v Speaker 1>when we turned in our late sixty these are close

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<v Speaker 1>to seventy would be a good idea. I'll have younger

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<v Speaker 1>people running it. I think that is a good idea.

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<v Speaker 1>So we asked two people, Glenn Yonkan and Cus On

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<v Speaker 1>the lead a running day today. So we are now

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<v Speaker 1>Phil Connie and I are the co executive chairs. We

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<v Speaker 1>are the biggest shareholders. We have some influence. Of course

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<v Speaker 1>I'm You're a big shareholder, and Bill is still a

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<v Speaker 1>co c I O and I spend a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>time with investors, but I do spend time with other things.

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<v Speaker 1>I have set up a family office to invest my

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<v Speaker 1>money outside of Carlisle and heels deals with one conflict

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<v Speaker 1>with Carlisle. I am the chairman of the Kenny Center

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington' the chairman of the Smithsonian, chairman of the

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<v Speaker 1>Library of Congress Board, and I'm chairman of the council

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<v Speaker 1>and form relations. That takes some time. And I'm also

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<v Speaker 1>on the Harvard Corporation, which takes some time. And I,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, generally have a TV show that you may

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<v Speaker 1>know on a very very good network. I think maybe

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<v Speaker 1>the best network. I think it's the best network absolutely.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh So, what have you learned and in sort of

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<v Speaker 1>this new role it's not that different from what you

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<v Speaker 1>were doing before, but especially as an investor in a

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<v Speaker 1>family office, how are you going about that? What's the

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<v Speaker 1>what's the ethos of that? Well, in the family office,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm kind of doing some of the things I did

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years ago at Carli. I'm spending more time on

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<v Speaker 1>some of the investments, more time directly with UH with

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<v Speaker 1>a younger investment professionals, and I enjoy it. I have

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<v Speaker 1>one of my daughters works in the family office. We

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<v Speaker 1>have a very good team of people. So I'm reliving

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<v Speaker 1>my youth. Maybe I'll live longer. What's the what's been

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest surprise investing your own money all over again.

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<v Speaker 1>You've always been doing it to some extent, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is really yours, in your family's money. My surprise is

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<v Speaker 1>really that there are a lot of people out there

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<v Speaker 1>who don't think I'm too old to want to put

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<v Speaker 1>their money with me or have me be an investor

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<v Speaker 1>with them. You know, I don't think I'm gonna live

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<v Speaker 1>for another thirty or forty years, but people are willing

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<v Speaker 1>to have my money and willing to have me engage

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<v Speaker 1>with them, so that makes me feel good. I'd be

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<v Speaker 1>interested in your thoughts on sort of wealth right now

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<v Speaker 1>because we're in such an interesting political time print. You've

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<v Speaker 1>been very involved in the Giving Pledge. You uh, you

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<v Speaker 1>are part of a cohort of philanthropists who give a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of to this. What political moment are we at

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<v Speaker 1>right now? Well, clearly in the United States right now,

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<v Speaker 1>there is a feeling that the wealth um disparity is

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<v Speaker 1>so great that the government needs to do something about it,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can see in the Democratic primaries a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of talk about wealth redistribution. I don't really think that's

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<v Speaker 1>likely to happen anytime soon. It's not that easy to do.

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<v Speaker 1>You can't just tax all the people in the forks

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<v Speaker 1>more hundred and solve all your problems. But I do

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<v Speaker 1>think there's gonna be more concerned about it. I do

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<v Speaker 1>think politically this probably helps the Republicans Because more and

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<v Speaker 1>more that people talk about wealth taxes and higher state

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<v Speaker 1>taxes and higher taxes on people of certain incomes, you're

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<v Speaker 1>probably gonna get a lot of people saying, well, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think I can support that party. So to some

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<v Speaker 1>extent you have to wonder whether some people in the

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party that talk about this are really plans by

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<v Speaker 1>the Republican Party to get more attention to the fact that, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the Democrats that they got control of some of these

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<v Speaker 1>things would not be good for some people are wealthy. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously that's tongue in cheek, but there's no doubt that

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<v Speaker 1>some people who are very visible on the on the

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<v Speaker 1>wealth changing situation are probably people that actually help Republicans.

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<v Speaker 1>And so where does that end in your estimation? We're

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<v Speaker 1>in a very different political environment post mid terms than

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<v Speaker 1>we were. Uh what do you think? Well, right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think there's gonna be any tax bill between

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<v Speaker 1>now and the next presidential election. I think that's done.

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<v Speaker 1>There's nothing that the Senate that's control by the republic

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<v Speaker 1>is going to pass that the House would pass. But

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<v Speaker 1>if the next presidential election were to be won by

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump, I don't think you'll see a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>change in this area. If one of the Democratic candidates

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<v Speaker 1>that is talking about this were to win, then obviously

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<v Speaker 1>there will be some change in this areas just Matchell,

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<v Speaker 1>So more regulation not coming at the moment for private

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<v Speaker 1>equity carried interests, you know, always comes back into the conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>I know you've been asked about this recently. Do you

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<v Speaker 1>think there are any gonna be any changes that would

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<v Speaker 1>materially affect private equity anytime soon? Well, I think private

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<v Speaker 1>equity is generally regarded as being doing a pretty good job,

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<v Speaker 1>so I don't see a lot of regulatory push on it.

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<v Speaker 1>On care interest right now, I don't see that the

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<v Speaker 1>House of Representatives passing a major tax bill that the

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<v Speaker 1>Senate will also pass, and therefore I think there's not

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<v Speaker 1>likely to be anything until after the next presidential election.

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<v Speaker 1>So macro economically, what's your biggest concern for the balance

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<v Speaker 1>of en Well, the biggest concern for the last couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years is can the economy continue growing at a

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<v Speaker 1>rate that escapes the recession. We haven't had a recession

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<v Speaker 1>in about ten years, and at some point the economy

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<v Speaker 1>will slow down. I don't see it happening now. Another

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<v Speaker 1>concern is the amount of debt. We have twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars of federal debt. We're having one point three

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<v Speaker 1>trillion this year of additional deficit, which will add to

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<v Speaker 1>the debt. That's a concern of some people. Uh. One

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<v Speaker 1>of your former colleagues, I believe, is the German of

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve. You've interviewed him, J Powell. Uh, what

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<v Speaker 1>do you make of the job he's doing so far,

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<v Speaker 1>especially given you know, pretty dramatic change over the last

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<v Speaker 1>few months in terms of interest rates. He had a

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult situation. Whoever was in his position would probably

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<v Speaker 1>happen normalized interest rates a bit, and he's done that.

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<v Speaker 1>But the economy is in still pretty good shape. So

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think he's should be criticized because actually he

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<v Speaker 1>managed to get some increases of interest rates off the

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<v Speaker 1>ground which were necessary, without actually hurting the economy. So, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>that was my conversation with David Rubinstein, always a character

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<v Speaker 1>wide ranging, of course, gotta talk little politics, gotta talk

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit about what he's doing these days, because

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't have exactly the same day job anymore. No,

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<v Speaker 1>it's very different and always good to get his perspective.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, That is the Bloomberg Business Week Extra Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Carol Masser along with Jason Kelly, and this is

0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:33.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg