WEBVTT - Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig) 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:16.044 Pushkin. 0:00:26.284 --> 0:00:29.364 Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. 0:00:29.564 --> 0:00:33.284 I'm Nate Silver. My co host Maria Khannikova is off today, 0:00:33.284 --> 0:00:36.484 but we do have a special guest. David Swag is 0:00:36.524 --> 0:00:38.764 a journalist and author, most recently of the book An 0:00:38.804 --> 0:00:42.044 Abundance of Caution, American Schools, The Virus and the Story 0:00:42.084 --> 0:00:45.724 of Bad Decisions. He also writes a substack newsletter, Silent Lunch. 0:00:45.884 --> 0:00:48.644 So welcome David. There are two reasons we're having you 0:00:48.684 --> 0:00:50.844 on today. Why is I really like your book, In fact, 0:00:50.964 --> 0:00:53.724 I endorse it. I blurred the back cover. And the 0:00:53.804 --> 0:00:56.164 other is that it is Risky Business. It is a 0:00:56.204 --> 0:00:59.364 show about making better decisions. That's our tagline, and this 0:00:59.444 --> 0:01:01.444 is the case where a lot of really bad, high 0:01:01.484 --> 0:01:04.524 stakes decisions were made. So welcome, Welcome to the show, David, 0:01:05.004 --> 0:01:09.084 Thanks Nate, and to help you and the audience navigate, 0:01:09.524 --> 0:01:11.564 we are covering quite a bit of territory today. I 0:01:11.604 --> 0:01:13.444 want to kind of situate us at the start of 0:01:13.444 --> 0:01:16.284 the pandemic, which may be a traumatic time frankly for 0:01:16.684 --> 0:01:18.244 a lot of people. I want to talk through the 0:01:18.284 --> 0:01:21.884 notion of cost benefit analysis and go through some terminology there, 0:01:22.404 --> 0:01:25.404 talk about politics, and psychology talk about the model. So 0:01:25.404 --> 0:01:27.124 there's a lot to get to. But I want to 0:01:27.164 --> 0:01:31.084 first just ask, Okay, sometimes you'll hear this more often 0:01:31.124 --> 0:01:33.924 from liberals who may be at made a Interesteff, we 0:01:33.924 --> 0:01:36.204 didn't have the best possible COVID response, But why is 0:01:36.244 --> 0:01:39.084 it important to talk about this? I mean, it's been 0:01:39.124 --> 0:01:42.564 more than more than five years. What's your response to that. 0:01:43.284 --> 0:01:46.284 Well, I'd say I have two responses. One is that 0:01:47.164 --> 0:01:52.684 this was, to my mind, possibly the most important event 0:01:52.804 --> 0:01:55.964 in some regards, you know, as far as infringing on 0:01:56.084 --> 0:01:59.684 personal liberties of American citizens that we've seen in a 0:01:59.764 --> 0:02:02.724 generation or more. And you know, when you compare it 0:02:02.724 --> 0:02:04.684 to other events like I don't know nine to eleven 0:02:04.804 --> 0:02:08.964 or the Iraq War, the amount of analysis and books 0:02:08.964 --> 0:02:15.244 written and scholarly study of those events to me seems 0:02:15.284 --> 0:02:18.084 like there should be that but times ten for this, 0:02:18.204 --> 0:02:21.524 I mean, like the actual impact on every single person 0:02:21.524 --> 0:02:24.324 in the country, and of particular interest to me children, 0:02:24.604 --> 0:02:29.164 to my mind, has not remotely been adequately studied or 0:02:29.204 --> 0:02:32.084 reckoned with one of the prime reasons I wrote my book. 0:02:32.444 --> 0:02:36.644 And the second answer to your question is that, ultimately, 0:02:36.844 --> 0:02:39.204 you know, I think, like any good books should be 0:02:39.964 --> 0:02:42.964 my book is not really about the pandemic. That's the backdrop, 0:02:43.324 --> 0:02:46.964 but hopefully what it's about is indeed to the topic 0:02:47.004 --> 0:02:49.684 of your podcast. It's really, to use a medical word, 0:02:49.724 --> 0:02:53.124 it's an anatomy of decision making, and my whole book 0:02:53.204 --> 0:02:58.684 is interested in how do individuals, how do policymakers, and 0:02:58.684 --> 0:03:02.564 how do we as a society make decisions, particularly when 0:03:02.604 --> 0:03:05.964 we have limited information and in a time of crisis. 0:03:06.364 --> 0:03:08.844 I use the pandemic as a case study or is 0:03:08.884 --> 0:03:12.324 a back to kind of explore these these dynamics in 0:03:12.364 --> 0:03:16.644 our country, where the reader hopefully comes away from the 0:03:16.684 --> 0:03:20.204 book with an understanding about these kind of decision making 0:03:20.284 --> 0:03:24.884 dynamics that can be applied really to any time that's happening, 0:03:24.964 --> 0:03:26.804 not just a sort of retrospective. 0:03:26.804 --> 0:03:29.764 Look, do you think there's some scar tissue where people 0:03:29.804 --> 0:03:32.564 find it traumatizing it because, like so, we just had 0:03:33.204 --> 0:03:36.884 two big books come out about Joe Biden, which is 0:03:36.884 --> 0:03:39.404 a case that in certain ways is parallel where things 0:03:39.444 --> 0:03:42.244 maybe people on the left kind of got wrong right 0:03:42.324 --> 0:03:47.924 directionally speaking, do you think people are traumatized by this 0:03:48.004 --> 0:03:49.964 experience and don't like talking about it? 0:03:50.084 --> 0:03:52.524 Well, I don't just think and I know it because 0:03:53.004 --> 0:03:57.084 many people have told me so. But you know, a 0:03:57.164 --> 0:04:01.084 reaction I've heard many times to the book is someone 0:04:01.124 --> 0:04:03.124 said they wanted to put their fist through a wall 0:04:03.444 --> 0:04:06.204 while they were reading it. Someone else said they cried, 0:04:06.404 --> 0:04:08.684 people are cringing. Someone said they had to read it 0:04:08.724 --> 0:04:11.844 in stages. But with all that said, to my mind, 0:04:11.884 --> 0:04:15.724 this is something that is both a difficult but necessary read. 0:04:16.764 --> 0:04:18.204 So Scar Tiss would be damned. 0:04:18.924 --> 0:04:21.364 So I do want to take us back now five 0:04:22.004 --> 0:04:25.484 plus years roughly. You know, for me, it was kind 0:04:25.484 --> 0:04:27.804 of a crazy time. This is just the climax of 0:04:27.844 --> 0:04:31.364 the Democratic primary campaign. So I'm like flying around like 0:04:31.404 --> 0:04:35.084 New Hampshire and South Carolina and various events, big conference 0:04:35.084 --> 0:04:38.764 in Boston. Increasingly you see every flight, every flight, it's 0:04:38.804 --> 0:04:41.044 a little bit emptier every time. You get a little 0:04:41.084 --> 0:04:44.324 bit more worried about, you know, maybe we shouldn't be 0:04:44.324 --> 0:04:48.804 gathering all these people together. You are in Westchester County, correct, 0:04:48.884 --> 0:04:52.044 which is if people don't know, it's the immediate northern 0:04:52.084 --> 0:04:57.724 suburbs of New York City, stereotypically nice, leafy houses, liberal, 0:04:57.964 --> 0:05:01.524 kind of pro democratic politics, middle class, upper middle class 0:05:01.524 --> 0:05:04.564 depending on the precise community. Right, And you're a dat 0:05:04.604 --> 0:05:09.964 of too Yep, everything you said sounds accurate. I live 0:05:10.004 --> 0:05:12.164 part time in Weschester County two. My mom grew up 0:05:12.204 --> 0:05:15.124 in a town called Crotons, so I can visualize this 0:05:15.244 --> 0:05:17.804 and like, so one might say, it's like not the 0:05:17.804 --> 0:05:20.924 worst place to be in a pandemic, right, It's kind 0:05:20.924 --> 0:05:24.124 of medium density. There tend to be parks and places 0:05:24.164 --> 0:05:26.804 to go jogging. So what's your sense at the very 0:05:26.884 --> 0:05:30.124 start of the pandemic when do you start to worry 0:05:30.204 --> 0:05:33.084 this is going to be severe? How are you behaving? 0:05:34.644 --> 0:05:38.204 Like most people in my area when when things kicked off, 0:05:38.244 --> 0:05:41.364 I listened to the experts. We locked down. I'm a 0:05:41.364 --> 0:05:44.004 little embarrassed to admit we even wiped our groceries when 0:05:44.044 --> 0:05:47.284 they came in. So I did not start out as 0:05:47.284 --> 0:05:50.844 a contrarian on this. I had no political motivations in 0:05:50.924 --> 0:05:54.804 this at all, and I had no reason to disregard 0:05:54.844 --> 0:05:59.884 what we were being told simultaneously. However, within like day 0:05:59.964 --> 0:06:04.244 one of so called remote learning, it was very obvious 0:06:04.284 --> 0:06:08.484 to me that this was not going to work over 0:06:08.564 --> 0:06:12.004 a long period of time. It seemed a reasonable trade 0:06:12.044 --> 0:06:15.444 off initially based on the information we were given, so 0:06:15.484 --> 0:06:19.764 I wasn't disregarding that, but Nevertheless, this still seemed like, whoa, 0:06:19.764 --> 0:06:21.884 how is this going to play out? Because this is 0:06:21.924 --> 0:06:23.844 not working. I had a third grader and a fifth 0:06:23.884 --> 0:06:26.964 grader at the time, and it was just obvious this 0:06:27.084 --> 0:06:30.844 was going to be a disaster, and that really led 0:06:30.884 --> 0:06:32.604 me to start digging into this. 0:06:33.244 --> 0:06:35.764 So when did you have these moments, David where you 0:06:35.804 --> 0:06:38.484 felt like, oh my god, there's not a lot of 0:06:38.724 --> 0:06:43.724 trustworthy information. What were those those inflections? 0:06:43.804 --> 0:06:46.204 Yeah? So, like I said, I sort of had no 0:06:46.284 --> 0:06:49.844 reason initially to disregard what we were being told. But 0:06:49.884 --> 0:06:54.124 my nature, just my disposition is to always be somewhat skeptical, 0:06:55.284 --> 0:06:59.244 and initially I wasn't pursuing this professionally at all. It 0:06:59.324 --> 0:07:03.364 was just sort of my own need to feel informed 0:07:03.404 --> 0:07:07.244 about what was going on. And what changed for me 0:07:07.444 --> 0:07:10.324 was I started realizing the information was getting I started 0:07:10.364 --> 0:07:15.124 emailing infectious disease experts and epidemiologists and others, almost all 0:07:15.164 --> 0:07:18.324 of them in Europe because the ones in the States 0:07:18.364 --> 0:07:21.604 weren't responding or didn't have the information. But I started 0:07:21.604 --> 0:07:23.924 reaching out to people in Europe trying to get more information, 0:07:24.324 --> 0:07:29.124 and I very quickly had this strange feeling. I'm like, 0:07:29.484 --> 0:07:32.244 holy shit, like none of this stuff is really being 0:07:32.284 --> 0:07:35.124 printed in the Times or I'm not seeing this elsewhere. 0:07:35.604 --> 0:07:37.804 And then that's when I was like, all right, maybe 0:07:38.604 --> 0:07:40.804 I need to do something about this. I'm in the media. 0:07:40.884 --> 0:07:43.804 You know, it's like the media is disappointing me. Well, okay, 0:07:43.844 --> 0:07:45.684 then I guess it falls on my shoulders. And I 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:48.524 was writing another book at the time, obviously totally unrelated 0:07:48.564 --> 0:07:51.364 to the topic. I just couldn't concentrate on anything. All 0:07:51.404 --> 0:07:55.324 I could think about was this insane, you know, circumstance 0:07:55.644 --> 0:07:58.564 that we were in. And then just more specifically, Nate, 0:07:59.524 --> 0:08:03.164 toward the end of April, I was walking with a 0:08:03.204 --> 0:08:05.564 friend of mine on the high school track here in 0:08:05.564 --> 0:08:09.204 my town and we were dutifully separated on like lanes 0:08:09.404 --> 0:08:13.924 one and four, wearing masks most likely. And by the 0:08:14.044 --> 0:08:18.284 end of April, I think it was new cases in 0:08:18.364 --> 0:08:22.844 New York had dropped by something like fifty percent. And 0:08:23.044 --> 0:08:25.204 as you'll recall and everyone else will, you know, we 0:08:25.204 --> 0:08:28.524 were told and the official slogan was fifteen days to 0:08:28.564 --> 0:08:31.604 slow the spread that began in March, and then they 0:08:31.724 --> 0:08:34.484 tacked another thirty days onto that, and you know, and 0:08:34.524 --> 0:08:37.524 there was seemingly, to my mind like there was no 0:08:37.604 --> 0:08:39.804 real debate or pushbackers, just like, oh yeah, I remember 0:08:39.804 --> 0:08:43.084 how we told you fifteen days. Now we're adding another thirty. 0:08:43.124 --> 0:08:47.564 And so the thing is, the reasoning behind the fifteen 0:08:47.644 --> 0:08:50.404 days to slow the spread was we had to prevent 0:08:50.524 --> 0:08:53.004 hospitals from being overwhelmed. And you know how, we were 0:08:53.044 --> 0:08:56.044 shown this this graph of you know, if everyone just 0:08:56.084 --> 0:08:59.084 follows instructions, you'll have this gentle slope, and if you 0:08:59.124 --> 0:09:01.604 don't follow instructions, we'll have this spike and the hospitals 0:09:01.604 --> 0:09:04.404 will be overwhelmed. So by the end of April, cases 0:09:04.444 --> 0:09:07.004 had fallen, new cases had fallen something like fifty percent. 0:09:07.324 --> 0:09:09.804 And I said to my friend, I'm like, oh, well, 0:09:10.324 --> 0:09:12.124 do you think schools are going to open next week? 0:09:12.204 --> 0:09:13.444 You know, I assume, And he's like, what are you 0:09:13.484 --> 0:09:15.684 talking about. I'm like, well, we did it. We flattened 0:09:15.684 --> 0:09:18.484 the curve, man. We we had a very specific goal 0:09:18.604 --> 0:09:21.164 that we were told we needed to achieve. We achieved it. 0:09:21.284 --> 0:09:25.444 We flattened like literally, and and then he was like, dude, 0:09:25.484 --> 0:09:27.844 they're not going back. They're not going back to school, 0:09:28.164 --> 0:09:30.564 and like, still, even though I've retold this story a 0:09:30.564 --> 0:09:32.364 million times and talk about in the book The Hairs 0:09:32.364 --> 0:09:34.324 on the back of my neck still stand up, because that, 0:09:34.484 --> 0:09:36.884 to me was one of the in was like the 0:09:36.924 --> 0:09:41.844 initial moment where I'm like, oh, like, so that's really 0:09:41.884 --> 0:09:44.364 weird that we're in a country where the government told 0:09:44.404 --> 0:09:46.564 us like, here's the thing you need to do, here's 0:09:46.604 --> 0:09:49.244 the goal that we're trying to achieve. Then we achieved 0:09:49.244 --> 0:09:52.644 that goal, but but then they just kept going anyway. 0:09:53.084 --> 0:09:58.044 Yeah, I know, people forget how much goodwill there was, right, Like, 0:09:58.084 --> 0:10:01.244 so when shit hit the fan, like kind of Rudy 0:10:01.284 --> 0:10:05.524 Gobert Tom Hanks day, Right, I was flying to Kansas City, 0:10:05.844 --> 0:10:11.604 where my partner's father was in hospice cares. So, you know, 0:10:11.884 --> 0:10:14.804 to be in an environment like that, in a kind 0:10:14.804 --> 0:10:17.564 of rural Missouri hospital at a time when this disease 0:10:17.604 --> 0:10:19.924 is getting to spread around the country was I think 0:10:19.964 --> 0:10:22.844 scary for everybody involved. Right, But we wound up staying 0:10:22.844 --> 0:10:25.964 in Kansas City for a month because there's a giant 0:10:26.004 --> 0:10:28.524 red circle around New York City. Of course, there's no 0:10:28.684 --> 0:10:31.884 way to ascertain cases in Kansas City. I call the 0:10:31.964 --> 0:10:33.924 Department of Health in Missouri. They're like, have you been 0:10:33.964 --> 0:10:36.124 to Wuhan, China, Well, then you can't get a COVID 0:10:36.124 --> 0:10:38.524 test kind of thing, right, But then it was that 0:10:38.644 --> 0:10:40.804 question of like, what is the endgame here? 0:10:40.884 --> 0:10:41.004 Right? 0:10:41.044 --> 0:10:44.564 I remember we had friends over like you. At first 0:10:44.764 --> 0:10:48.004 I was very cautious, remember, like yelling at a stranger 0:10:48.004 --> 0:10:50.804 for not wearing a mask on an elevator and some 0:10:50.924 --> 0:10:54.164 carini ish behavior there, right, But gradually there was kind 0:10:54.204 --> 0:10:56.764 of this thing where you start to I roll and 0:10:56.804 --> 0:10:59.284 group chat and you're like, we can't really not do 0:10:59.364 --> 0:11:01.164 and we don't even have kids, you do, right, we 0:11:01.204 --> 0:11:04.324 can't really stay cooped up for the definite future, right, 0:11:04.364 --> 0:11:06.244 because you could project fotward that like there was no 0:11:06.804 --> 0:11:08.804 there was no plan at all. 0:11:09.524 --> 0:11:13.764 So one of the things that was really important to me, 0:11:14.084 --> 0:11:15.964 and you know what I call like a record scratch 0:11:16.044 --> 0:11:18.484 moment in the book is when at the end of 0:11:18.524 --> 0:11:22.724 April and beginning of May, twenty two countries in Europe 0:11:22.804 --> 0:11:27.164 began reopening their lower schools. So this is not like 0:11:27.324 --> 0:11:30.444 one tiny schoolhouse in the you know, in the countryside 0:11:30.484 --> 0:11:33.964 of you know, Denmark, twenty two countries and this includes 0:11:34.444 --> 0:11:38.404 massive cities like Paris and you know and elsewhere. And 0:11:39.484 --> 0:11:43.084 toward the end of April, the education ministers of the 0:11:43.124 --> 0:11:46.964 EU met or met you know, at least online and 0:11:47.044 --> 0:11:52.364 they said, we've observed no negative consequences of this. They 0:11:52.404 --> 0:11:54.724 met a second time in June and they hade the 0:11:54.804 --> 0:11:59.324 same reaction and that for me, I remember watching the 0:11:59.444 --> 0:12:02.524 video of this and like I just it was like 0:12:02.564 --> 0:12:05.444 a sense of unreality because that is the type of 0:12:05.484 --> 0:12:08.724 thing that should have been splashed across the front pages 0:12:08.764 --> 0:12:11.804 of every newspaper. This should have been you know, crawling 0:12:11.844 --> 0:12:14.404 on the screen on every cable news network. This was 0:12:14.444 --> 0:12:18.724 the news. Ostensibly we were waiting for Europe looked at 0:12:18.764 --> 0:12:21.084 all the same information we had and came to a 0:12:21.244 --> 0:12:26.044 very different conclusion about what was wise, and for them 0:12:26.324 --> 0:12:28.284 was we should open the schools. And it is not 0:12:28.484 --> 0:12:31.004 because Europe controlled the virus, which is like one of 0:12:31.044 --> 0:12:34.484 the false arguments about oh well Europe did that, because 0:12:34.484 --> 0:12:37.284 they know they didn't. I give an analysis within my book. 0:12:37.644 --> 0:12:39.404 You know, maybe on a country level when you look 0:12:39.444 --> 0:12:41.204 at it, but if you look at different you can 0:12:41.244 --> 0:12:44.684 match up city to city, small town to small town, 0:12:45.004 --> 0:12:46.844 and go on and on and on and see that 0:12:47.004 --> 0:12:50.484 in Europe they had cases that were above, that were below, 0:12:50.684 --> 0:12:52.844 and that were around the same. It was all over 0:12:52.884 --> 0:12:55.884 the map, you know, literally and figuratively. So they didn't 0:12:56.004 --> 0:12:58.364 quote control the virus. I think that you know, they 0:12:58.404 --> 0:13:00.884 weren't doing mass mandates across the board, they weren't doing 0:13:00.924 --> 0:13:03.444 distancing across the board of six feet. They didn't have 0:13:03.444 --> 0:13:06.044 have the filters, they didn't have barriers across the board, 0:13:06.284 --> 0:13:08.964 none of this stuff that we were told, and nevertheless 0:13:08.964 --> 0:13:13.204 they said we haven't observed any negative impact. That is 0:13:13.244 --> 0:13:17.884 an extraordinary moment that this was ignored and then if 0:13:17.884 --> 0:13:20.684 it was ever mentioned, was waved away. I ultimately wrote 0:13:20.684 --> 0:13:23.284 about it in June I think that meeting, and you know, 0:13:23.364 --> 0:13:25.804 and I talk about it in my book, but this 0:13:26.044 --> 0:13:30.484 was not covered. Essentially, this was just memory hold. So 0:13:30.564 --> 0:13:34.004 that was one key point, key moment. Another one was 0:13:34.324 --> 0:13:37.964 when the cases had fallen in New York City, as 0:13:37.964 --> 0:13:41.164 I mentioned, you know, by the end of April dropped 0:13:41.164 --> 0:13:45.444 something like fifty percent. Another key moment was an article 0:13:45.484 --> 0:13:49.084 that had come out on NPR. Of all places where 0:13:49.124 --> 0:13:54.124 they talked about the where they talked about the daycares 0:13:54.164 --> 0:13:57.724 and the YMCAs, tens of thousands of kids were in 0:13:57.764 --> 0:14:02.124 these programs early on and they observed no real outbreaks 0:14:02.204 --> 0:14:05.524 or no kind of like overt negative impacts of this. 0:14:06.164 --> 0:14:08.324 And then lastly there was the study out of Sweden 0:14:08.404 --> 0:14:10.964 where they never closed the lower schools. And by the way, 0:14:11.044 --> 0:14:14.524 Stockholm is, you know, that's a major city. We had 0:14:14.764 --> 0:14:18.884 like empirical evidence just kind of like screaming at us 0:14:18.964 --> 0:14:22.244 in the face, and it just kept being waved away. 0:14:23.324 --> 0:14:26.084 So those were kind of like three or four really 0:14:26.124 --> 0:14:30.564 important moments quite early in the pandemic when it was 0:14:30.684 --> 0:14:34.644 clear that schools were not driving the pandemic, and indeed, 0:14:34.924 --> 0:14:38.084 tons of studies later on showed how schools by and 0:14:38.164 --> 0:14:42.484 large tended to mirror at most or or be below 0:14:42.964 --> 0:14:45.164 the community rates of infection. 0:14:47.524 --> 0:14:48.884 Do you want to talk a little bit, So, first 0:14:48.884 --> 0:14:51.524 of all, it is an election year. Do you think 0:14:51.564 --> 0:14:53.884 the polarity of this was inevitable? What if Hillary Clinton 0:14:54.324 --> 0:14:56.644 had gotten a few more thousand votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, 0:14:56.684 --> 0:14:59.644 Pennsylvania and Hillary Clinton had been president, do you think 0:14:59.644 --> 0:15:01.324 this would have polarized in reverse? 0:15:02.004 --> 0:15:04.684 You know, it's a counterfactual, so who's to say. But 0:15:06.444 --> 0:15:09.684 I do think, based on all the evidence that I 0:15:09.764 --> 0:15:15.324 describe in my book, it seems impossible to not see 0:15:15.324 --> 0:15:18.684 it that way. That and I you know, and I believe, 0:15:18.724 --> 0:15:21.084 and you can tell me if you disagree, But I 0:15:21.084 --> 0:15:24.924 think I make a pretty strong, like lawyerly persuasive case 0:15:25.364 --> 0:15:29.884 that much of the response in America from the public 0:15:29.884 --> 0:15:32.684 health establishment, from the legacy media, from the broader sort 0:15:32.684 --> 0:15:35.644 of like left wing you know, elites, so to speak, 0:15:36.044 --> 0:15:40.684 was reactionary against Trump and against Republicans. And you know 0:15:40.724 --> 0:15:42.884 that's not just sort of like an opinion. There's all 0:15:42.924 --> 0:15:46.524 sorts of like interesting data on this, and also you know, 0:15:46.604 --> 0:15:49.804 my anecdotal experience of this, you know, and we can 0:15:49.844 --> 0:15:53.044 get into it. You know, there's the countless numbers of 0:15:53.084 --> 0:15:55.804 doctors and others who reached out to me saying that 0:15:55.884 --> 0:15:58.044 they agreed with the stuff I was writing, but they 0:15:58.044 --> 0:16:01.764 were afraid to say so publicly, or they were explicitly 0:16:01.844 --> 0:16:04.524 told they couldn't say so. I don't make this statement 0:16:04.644 --> 0:16:09.084 lightly about the left being reactionary. I think a lot 0:16:09.124 --> 0:16:11.444 of people and left weren't even aware that they were 0:16:11.484 --> 0:16:14.044 being reactionary. I don't even know how much they were 0:16:14.124 --> 0:16:16.324 thinking about it. This is what the people from on 0:16:16.524 --> 0:16:18.844 high were telling them. So, you know, we could get 0:16:18.844 --> 0:16:22.004 into it. But it's like most these you know, most 0:16:22.044 --> 0:16:26.164 experts in anyfield have a relatively narrow range of expertise. 0:16:26.564 --> 0:16:29.844 But yet somehow this is slightly tangential to your question. 0:16:29.884 --> 0:16:34.084 But somehow anyone who was a quote epidemiologist, anyone who 0:16:34.164 --> 0:16:36.964 had MD after the name, they all of a sudden 0:16:36.964 --> 0:16:40.124 became experts in like an entire way of living your life, 0:16:40.164 --> 0:16:42.684 an entire sort of societal response. 0:16:43.044 --> 0:16:46.044 I can't I can't resist the bait about the way 0:16:46.044 --> 0:16:48.284 that experts were thrown around and they I mean, first 0:16:48.284 --> 0:16:52.644 of all, sometimes it was just like blatantly exclusionary, where 0:16:52.644 --> 0:16:55.644 if you're you know, like Jay Boicharia who now works 0:16:55.684 --> 0:16:58.284 to the White House, right perfectly what credential expert, but 0:16:58.284 --> 0:17:00.604 he was going against the consensus, so therefore was kind 0:17:00.644 --> 0:17:03.204 of black balls too strong a phrase. He had a 0:17:03.204 --> 0:17:05.244 strong voice and social media and so forth right, but 0:17:05.364 --> 0:17:10.124 like who is an expert when it comes to COVID policy? 0:17:10.444 --> 0:17:13.604 So that's an awesome question, and it's one of the 0:17:13.964 --> 0:17:16.164 to my mind, I think key threads in my book 0:17:16.684 --> 0:17:22.284 where I discussed the idea that only certain people were 0:17:22.604 --> 0:17:26.684 allowed really within the public conversation and within the media 0:17:27.364 --> 0:17:31.524 to weigh in on what we should be doing. There's 0:17:31.564 --> 0:17:34.404 sort of two problems with that. One is that someone 0:17:34.444 --> 0:17:37.364 like Anthony Fauci has a particular at least ostensibly a 0:17:37.364 --> 0:17:41.844 particular expertise within infectious diseases and perhaps how to manage them. 0:17:42.644 --> 0:17:46.684 He does not have an expertise in the values of 0:17:46.844 --> 0:17:52.284 society and in second order effects of non pharmaceutical interventions 0:17:52.284 --> 0:17:55.404 and mitigations that I know, that's like a mouthful, but 0:17:56.244 --> 0:17:59.764 in plain English, he's not an expert on what happens 0:17:59.804 --> 0:18:04.844 to children who when schools are closed and they won't 0:18:04.884 --> 0:18:08.204 be able to graduate, you have kids stuck at home 0:18:08.284 --> 0:18:13.404 with an abusive parent. Because child abuse cases had skyrocketed, 0:18:13.444 --> 0:18:15.524 and by the way, we knew this data as early 0:18:15.564 --> 0:18:18.844 as April of twenty twenty. They already had indications that 0:18:19.244 --> 0:18:22.244 very very bad things were happening to a lot of 0:18:22.404 --> 0:18:27.924 really vulnerable kids. So Anthony Fauci, you know, and others 0:18:27.924 --> 0:18:31.244 sort of like within that lane, have a very specific 0:18:31.724 --> 0:18:35.484 range of knowledge and expertise, and yet they were given 0:18:35.644 --> 0:18:40.004 this mandate really on being the overall sort of director 0:18:40.284 --> 0:18:45.204 of society. And then to make matters worse, Nate, there 0:18:45.204 --> 0:18:48.724 were other people who sort of fashioned themselves as these 0:18:48.804 --> 0:18:52.284 like COVID pundics, who really for much of the population 0:18:52.924 --> 0:18:57.044 dictated how they were supposed to think about what was 0:18:57.364 --> 0:19:02.524 prudent and what was critical or not critical about various 0:19:02.724 --> 0:19:05.244 interventions that we had to be subject to. 0:19:05.724 --> 0:19:07.764 Yeah, my model of this right, as you have kind 0:19:07.804 --> 0:19:12.604 of one group of experts that might attempt to predict 0:19:13.324 --> 0:19:15.844 how bad the disease will be, both in terms of 0:19:15.924 --> 0:19:19.364 number of cases and mortality under certain scenarios. You might 0:19:19.404 --> 0:19:22.484 have another group of experts, maybe more economists, who talk 0:19:22.484 --> 0:19:24.764 about what the what the trade offs are, what are 0:19:24.764 --> 0:19:28.044 the consequences of closing schools, And then it's a society's 0:19:28.164 --> 0:19:33.404 job to, in our flawed democratic system way that expert 0:19:33.444 --> 0:19:38.924 evidence and make what our ultimately political decisions. But I 0:19:38.964 --> 0:19:40.604 want to set one thing up, and maybe it's kind 0:19:40.604 --> 0:19:44.884 of an inside baseball question about the reporting of the book, 0:19:44.924 --> 0:19:48.484 But so, why the decision to focus so much on 0:19:48.724 --> 0:19:50.524 schools right? Why that focus? 0:19:50.884 --> 0:19:53.444 I mean, I use schools right as a launch point 0:19:53.564 --> 0:19:55.764 into this sort of larger Obviously I get into a 0:19:55.764 --> 0:19:58.964 lot of mask mandate stuff and all these other interventions 0:19:59.124 --> 0:20:02.644 imposed I would say schools and children in tandem, because 0:20:02.804 --> 0:20:05.444 I'm really concerned about not just the school closures, but 0:20:05.484 --> 0:20:09.884 the broader sort of view of children in society during 0:20:09.924 --> 0:20:12.524 in America and the positioning of them as these sort 0:20:12.564 --> 0:20:17.084 of like silent super spreaders and the interventions that were 0:20:17.124 --> 0:20:20.004 imposed on them in our country in a sort of 0:20:20.404 --> 0:20:24.004 somewhat uniquely aggressive medical culture that we have here, you know, 0:20:24.044 --> 0:20:26.604 where it's like two year olds had to be masked 0:20:26.644 --> 0:20:31.644 in America, whereas in Europe, the ECDC, that's their version 0:20:31.644 --> 0:20:34.284 of the CDC, they didn't even recommend that kids in 0:20:34.324 --> 0:20:37.324 primary school wear masks at all. And you know, the 0:20:37.364 --> 0:20:40.044 World Health Organization they had mask mandate. I think it 0:20:40.084 --> 0:20:42.684 was age six and up. So the fact that just 0:20:42.684 --> 0:20:44.844 just one of the zillion examples, the fact that it 0:20:44.884 --> 0:20:47.724 was like required for two year olds in America to 0:20:47.724 --> 0:20:52.244 wear masks was you know, it was quite unusual and 0:20:52.324 --> 0:20:55.644 worthy of comment. So the reason I mentioned this is 0:20:55.644 --> 0:21:00.444 is to me, the kind of like biggest unforced error 0:21:01.164 --> 0:21:04.884 in America was the long term closure of schools, and 0:21:04.924 --> 0:21:11.524 then secondarily the impositions imposed on children when schools were open. Finally, 0:21:12.604 --> 0:21:16.164 that of all the harms that happened, to my mind, 0:21:16.244 --> 0:21:18.964 this one is, you know, and it's hard to quantify 0:21:19.004 --> 0:21:23.404 this stuff, mate, but this was perhaps the most consequential, 0:21:23.764 --> 0:21:30.724 and if not the most consequential, certainly the most unnecessarily 0:21:30.804 --> 0:21:33.884 harmful of all the interventions that were imposed. 0:21:35.204 --> 0:21:37.284 Yeah, I want to get one. So I guess I'm 0:21:37.284 --> 0:21:42.884 going to ask you an epidemiological question, right. So one 0:21:42.924 --> 0:21:45.204 of the first things that was there very early on 0:21:45.324 --> 0:21:49.564 that this disease was hitting older people exponentially harder than 0:21:49.724 --> 0:21:54.004 younger people, which is not true for all pandemics. So 0:21:54.324 --> 0:21:59.044 can you explain why that was true for this particular coronavirus. 0:21:59.604 --> 0:22:02.564 One of the things that that I'm really interested in 0:22:02.604 --> 0:22:05.244 his narrative formation and you know, and I talk about 0:22:05.244 --> 0:22:07.124 that a lot in the book is like how these 0:22:07.164 --> 0:22:11.604 certain narratives and ideas were formed and then how they 0:22:11.644 --> 0:22:16.044 were enforced. And one of them is even when you 0:22:16.124 --> 0:22:21.564 think about the term novel coronavirus, even the word novel 0:22:22.204 --> 0:22:26.964 adds on an immediate type of association for people. This 0:22:27.044 --> 0:22:30.764 is new, and often with a disease, something that's new 0:22:31.004 --> 0:22:35.244 is going to be particularly scary. Think about the word COVID. 0:22:35.564 --> 0:22:39.204 It's written in all caps. It's different than just like 0:22:39.324 --> 0:22:43.164 the flu, you know, in lowercase. These things, these things matter, 0:22:43.444 --> 0:22:46.844 I think to some extent. And the reality is that 0:22:47.244 --> 0:22:51.244 coronaviruses have been with us for a zillion years. Much 0:22:51.244 --> 0:22:54.084 of the common colds that we get are from coronaviruses. 0:22:54.444 --> 0:22:58.284 There's a lot of literature that shows that SARS Kobe two, 0:22:58.524 --> 0:23:02.004 which causes COVID, you know, the novel coronavirus, that it 0:23:02.044 --> 0:23:06.404 behaved very similarly to way other coronaviruses had behaved. And 0:23:06.444 --> 0:23:10.324 I interviewed this gentleman who's a specialist in actious diseases 0:23:10.364 --> 0:23:14.404