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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Folks,

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Speaker 1: you have to go to Zurich and I mean john

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Speaker 1: a number two value meal McDonald's. No, it's like, seriously,

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Speaker 1: fourteen dollars for I mean you go in, folks, this

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Speaker 1: is right down by actually a happy meal. Now we

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Speaker 1: chat the price. Excuse me, you must you must not. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the kids get the happy meal with the four the

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Speaker 1: six piece chicken McNugget right. Hold on a second. He's

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Speaker 1: trying to say he's populist because he bought his kid

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Speaker 1: a happy meal and call at the about two places

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Speaker 1: that you can get some food. There is a restaurant

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Speaker 1: upstairs and then downstairs there's a burger king. So when

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Speaker 1: you go past the burger king, that's when you check

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Speaker 1: in just to see how much the mill cost, just

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Speaker 1: to just to get your updates, to take a look

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Speaker 1: at it. You say, wow, that's expensive. Then you walk on.

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Speaker 1: If you go down the street from air Maz where

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Speaker 1: the bow ties literally forty dollars more than it is

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Speaker 1: on Madison Avenue here. I mean, I'm not kidding of

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Speaker 1: the currency. I don't think you are. There is a

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Speaker 1: McDonald's al from New Jersey. Once he shared a lunch

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Speaker 1: with me there and you know he loaded up. He

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Speaker 1: had like two big max It was like forty two dollars.

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Speaker 1: Is SMB disagrees with what they're doing in sweet We're

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Speaker 1: going to continue this conversation now with Jahap jell and

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Speaker 1: news Credit Sweets, head of FX and Macro trading Strategy

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Speaker 1: Shahab Swede and abandoning negativent of interest rates? Can we

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Speaker 1: read anything into this more broadly for the other central

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Speaker 1: banks in Europe continuing this experiment, I think this was

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Speaker 1: well flanked, so the immediate price effect isn't really there.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, we are seeing interest rates

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Speaker 1: at the longer term interest rates going up across the

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Speaker 1: r area at this moment across Europe in general, um

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Speaker 1: as equity markets do better as the markets look forward

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Speaker 1: to a better growth growth prospect next year globally, So

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Speaker 1: all it really does I think is underline the fact

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Speaker 1: that at this point the market, if anything, is now

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Speaker 1: looking for higher rather than lower rates across UH, the

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Speaker 1: overall European rate space. UH. And that's that's probably the

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Speaker 1: most important aspect of this. I think, have you raised

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Speaker 1: a really good point, We've reached the bottom, and now

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Speaker 1: the path is going to be up. That seems to

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Speaker 1: be the implication. Is there a bigger message though to

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Speaker 1: be read through the idea that we did not see

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Speaker 1: much of a move in markets. It wasn't this amazing

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Speaker 1: catastrophic event going to zero. Does that give us a lesson? Well?

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Speaker 1: I think it tells you certainly that if you flag

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Speaker 1: what you plan to do well enough in advance, um,

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Speaker 1: and then it just so happens that global conditions are

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Speaker 1: supportive of what you want to do at that point

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Speaker 1: in time when you when you reach that decision, then

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Speaker 1: you can get away with a move like this notable

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Speaker 1: And it's notable as well. There were two dissenters to

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Speaker 1: this decision to the deputy governors disagreed, and what that

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Speaker 1: does it leaves some optionality to change course next year

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Speaker 1: without losing too much face. So I think that's that's

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Speaker 1: another fact that to bear in mind as well. Our

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Speaker 1: conditions conducive to going to zero in Europe right now.

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Speaker 1: I think it's it's different in the case of the

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Speaker 1: ECB and the EUR area simply because inflation expectations remain

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Speaker 1: very muted at this point in time, and there are

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Speaker 1: other significant risks. For example, some fear that the tariff

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Speaker 1: war UH as as the U S tarifer against China

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Speaker 1: subsides perhaps one against the your area could start. So

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Speaker 1: these kinds of risks probably mean that it's it's too

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Speaker 1: soon to think about any any form of movement away

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Speaker 1: from their it to rates by the CB and Sweden

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Speaker 1: is going to get a lot of attention today and

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Speaker 1: they may well do in the coming months too. But

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Speaker 1: the e c B is forecasting inflation of one point

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Speaker 1: one percent in Sweden and the Swedish Central Bank is

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Speaker 1: forecasting inflation of of what one eight per cent? As

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Speaker 1: you have, isn't that the difference for the e c

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Speaker 1: B and the ricks Bank. The Sweden is basically on

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Speaker 1: the money on target and the ECB is nowhere near.

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's a key part of this UH

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Speaker 1: and ultimately with the various disagreements that are going on

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Speaker 1: at the CD, apparently between the different central Bank governors.

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Speaker 1: That adds another layer of intrigue. I guess you could

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Speaker 1: say to the decisions that the CP is likely to make,

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Speaker 1: But yes, until inflation expectations move materially higher, it's quite

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Speaker 1: difficult to see a move away from negative interest rates,

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Speaker 1: especially as what will probably see if markets really get

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Speaker 1: excited about rates moving higher in Europe persistently is a

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Speaker 1: stronger euro to boot also titles you can do another

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Speaker 1: thing that they need to avoid for now. That's right

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Speaker 1: where you wanted to go. What is your call on Euro?

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Speaker 1: I mean, is it a tradeable currency next year? Well,

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Speaker 1: we actually think euro is still in the funding currency category.

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Speaker 1: We feel that those looking for a better global environment

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Speaker 1: in can look at other currencies they are more high

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Speaker 1: beta for investment as opposed to the Euro. So, for example,

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Speaker 1: we think the high beta space in G ten includes

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Speaker 1: the likes of Norway, Australian dollar um and in emerging

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Speaker 1: markets there's a lot of choices as well, UM, including

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Speaker 1: for example of South African rant. So uh, the Euro

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Speaker 1: as a negative rate currency is not the most appealing

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Speaker 1: to pick at this point. Well, so shall we shall

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Speaker 1: have joll and who's thanks so much? Credit Suez? Greg

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Speaker 1: Villier is a student of all this, from Johnson to

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Speaker 1: Clinton to President Trump, and he joins us right now

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Speaker 1: to meet Gregg. There was an entire somber tone to

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Speaker 1: the process. Am I wrong on that or did that

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Speaker 1: capture what you observed yesterday in Washington? No, you're right, Tom,

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Speaker 1: Good Morning. I think that Pelosi wanted to show the

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Speaker 1: country that they were not juvelant, and she cut off

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Speaker 1: any celebration very quickly. I thought that was pretty a

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Speaker 1: stute of her. She is going to delay. This is

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Speaker 1: something that I guess came out of nowhere. Uh. Does

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Speaker 1: she have the ability to delay the process to the Senate? Apparently?

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Speaker 1: And I think that's the big deal. I think that's

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Speaker 1: the story coming out of last night, which was so

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Speaker 1: predictable except for this new angle, and that is she

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Speaker 1: may delay for weeks any submission of impeachment charges to

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Speaker 1: the Senate until they show her that they're going to

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Speaker 1: have witnesses. Greig. I'm wondering going forward what the political

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Speaker 1: consequences of this vote will be, given the fact that

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Speaker 1: President Trump is using it to try to ignite his base.

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Speaker 1: Will that be effective? Well? It sure wasn't that rally

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Speaker 1: he had last night, and I think it was Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: and in a very raucous adoring crowd. So he's jimmed

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Speaker 1: up his basse, you know, whether he's jenned up that

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Speaker 1: great chunk of centrist voters that the people in America

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Speaker 1: who could be swayed that. The jury is still very

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Speaker 1: much out on that. But I do think he's united

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Speaker 1: the Republicans more than he could have ever hoped for. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that rarely has been Battle Creek, Michigan. I believe. I'm

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Speaker 1: just trying to understand the Republican Party, how we can

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Speaker 1: sort of separated out from President Trump. I mean, is

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Speaker 1: uh the Republican Party at this point the Trump Party,

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Speaker 1: and that essentially anything that is uh, you know, a

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Speaker 1: rebuke of him will be used to try to get

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Speaker 1: a voter voter turn at Well, you're right, Lisa, I

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Speaker 1: think that it's now his party entirely. He's dominated the party,

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Speaker 1: terrorized the party, and I think what they also own

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Speaker 1: is a three point five percent unemployment rate, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's a big plus. Gregg the President yesterday that

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Speaker 1: campaign rally, referred to the process as quote a political

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Speaker 1: suicide march for the Democratic Party. How's it playing out?

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Speaker 1: In the polls at a moment, Greg, Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: the poles GN have slightly weakened for impeachment. But Trump

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Speaker 1: said the last week that his poll numbers have gone

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Speaker 1: through the roof, which typically for Trump, is not true.

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Speaker 1: I think his poll numbers have improved a bit. But

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Speaker 1: there's more to come, and I think there's more twists

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Speaker 1: and turns like Pelosi withholding the impeachment charges going to

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Speaker 1: the Senate. You know, maybe we will hear from John Bolton,

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Speaker 1: maybe we'll hear from Rudy Giuliani. Maybe Trump himself will

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Speaker 1: continue to be his own worst enemy on things like

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Speaker 1: letters to Pelosi. So there's more twists in turns to come.

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Speaker 1: But the bottom line is still Trump will remain as president.

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Speaker 1: The Democrats say they're upholding the constitution. This isn't about

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Speaker 1: electoral politics, but it will have consequences for and a

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Speaker 1: conversation we've been having on this program, Greg, is essentially

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Speaker 1: that the president is already conducting a national campaign at

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Speaker 1: a time when the Democrats are still in the business

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Speaker 1: of selecting their nominee for the campaign next year. They

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Speaker 1: are focusing on the smallest states ahead of all of that,

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Speaker 1: and they're drowning in partisan politics down in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: Just how much can the president leverage this moment to

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Speaker 1: put himself on a firmer footing into next year. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think he can. And as you guys all know,

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Speaker 1: I try to be a centrist. I'm not an id

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Speaker 1: logue on one side or another. But I must say

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Speaker 1: it's a pretty sorry group of Democrats. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: debate tonight and I'm sure they're going to go after

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Speaker 1: each other pretty aggressively. I mean, there's no one in

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Speaker 1: the group that I see who clearly could be Trump.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's possible Trump could lose. I think the

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Speaker 1: electoral college map doesn't favor him as much. But boy,

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Speaker 1: that's a weak group of Democrats he's facing. We should

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Speaker 1: mention as well that Michael Bloomberg is the founder of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg lpean of course, of Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: and as a candidate for that Democratic UH nomination. That

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Speaker 1: speaks greg val to a recalibration into the weeks of

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Speaker 1: two thousand and twenty of what moderate means to Democrats,

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Speaker 1: Senator Warren has shifted. There's imperceptible changes. What's a moderate Democrat.

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Speaker 1: Look as we launch into the holiday season, Well, there's

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Speaker 1: three or four big ones, as you mentioned Bloomberg, There's Biden,

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Speaker 1: there's Amy Klovicharre's Buddha Jedge, who are all relatively moderate

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Speaker 1: for that party. But Trump, I think we'll try to

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Speaker 1: demonize any of them saying that. He'll say they all

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Speaker 1: favored big tax increases, they're all closet socialists. So you

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Speaker 1: mean he'll still have an argument. But I think right

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Speaker 1: now there's crazy primary season rewards, pandering in Iowa to

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Speaker 1: the most extreme elements. May Ward believe it or not,

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, who is I think had a little surge.

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Speaker 1: I think Sanders could win New Hampshire as he did

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Speaker 1: early four years ago. I mean, Greg, this is really important,

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Speaker 1: and you're a real student of this. For for those

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Speaker 1: of us that are clueless, that would be me included.

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Speaker 1: How different is this process to March third than the

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Speaker 1: last time around. Well, it's one very big difference, and

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Speaker 1: that is a major candidate. Mike Bloomberg is not contesting

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Speaker 1: the early primaries. He's saving his uh A powder. I

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Speaker 1: mean his ads have been quite good. In my opinion,

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Speaker 1: I think he could do well on March three. So

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Speaker 1: I don't want to diminish Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina,

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Speaker 1: but they're not quite as important as they were four

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Speaker 1: years ago. Greg, you're killing me every time you mentioned

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Speaker 1: Mr Bloomberg. You know, I'm I'm he's you're actually killing him.

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Speaker 1: He's actually I'm agent. Right here. We should mention again, folks,

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Speaker 1: Mr Bloomberg's affiliation with Bloomberg Surveillance Lisa, Greg, I'm curious

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Speaker 1: about what the playbook is post post election, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I was talking with one uh one investor who is

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Speaker 1: saying that perhaps will start talking about an infrastructure bill

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Speaker 1: again come next December. Is that plausible? Do you think

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Speaker 1: that we're actually going to see any feasible proposals like

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Speaker 1: that on the table. Well, they'll talk about it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they'll talk about tax cuts too, I think, talk about

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Speaker 1: big middle class tax reductions, which I don't see getting

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Speaker 1: past Pelosi. I don't see an infrastructure bill passing either,

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Speaker 1: But I think Trump will make it clear that he's

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Speaker 1: willing to spend money. If there's one big economic theme

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Speaker 1: in this city, it's not the monetary stimulus, it's the

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus, which I think will continue to be very

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Speaker 1: very robust. Oh, you know, I want to go Greg

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Speaker 1: to some of the challenges that are out there in infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: like in Merrimack, New Hampshire, build a nineteen fifty nine

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Speaker 1: eight nine over Seth Street. I mean, I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: your neck of the woods. Why is it so hard

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Speaker 1: to fix eighty nine over pass a merri mc New Hampshire. Well,

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Speaker 1: the first reason is that they have to figure out

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Speaker 1: a way to pay for it, and nobody, of course

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Speaker 1: would dare. No one in New Hampshire wants to pay

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Speaker 1: for it. But it's like a federal right. But even

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Speaker 1: on the federal level, no one wants a gasoline tax,

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Speaker 1: which could pay for it. But it'll come. And I

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Speaker 1: guarantee you guys, as we go through Trump will talk

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Speaker 1: a lot about infrastructure very quickly. Here, Greg, we built

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Speaker 1: the inter the interstate system. You're too young to remember this,

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Speaker 1: but we built the interstate system under Eisenhower. Sure, and

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Speaker 1: I think that Trump would love to do something similar.

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Speaker 1: Also a wild card, guys, student debt relief. I think

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Speaker 1: a proposal is coming. There's a piece this morning in

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Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal. They're not going to forgive it,

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Speaker 1: but they might restruct your debt. That's going to be

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Speaker 1: a plus for them. Greg Investment, Chief US Policy. I'm

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Speaker 1: just trying. Somebody's going to forgive the tours and payments.

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Speaker 1: I actually think that would be huge. That would be

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Speaker 1: huge economically because a lot of people say that that's

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Speaker 1: one thing that's been holding back housing formation in among

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Speaker 1: younger people, as well as just spending in general. A

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Speaker 1: huge past radium, Tim Keene and we are thrilled to

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Speaker 1: bring you his first interview after announcing UH and ease

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Speaker 1: back on the schedule from the grind of every day,

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Speaker 1: every day. And trust me, folks, if you're on Global

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Speaker 1: Wall Street, you know the grind of every day, every

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Speaker 1: day to occasionally during the week. He first began publishing

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Speaker 1: when his book was released in nineteen fifty seven, The

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Speaker 1: Grinch Who Stole Christmas? And we're well, we're thrilled to

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Speaker 1: have the Grinch with us here today. Dennis Gartment is

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Speaker 1: all Dennis. A lot of people saying, why is it

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Speaker 1: about health? Is it about this? Is it about that that?

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Speaker 1: Mrs Gartman say enough, do we blame the president as

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Speaker 1: a president Obama's fault? Why are retiring? Yes? Yes, that's yes.

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Speaker 1: Above it's primary. First of all, it's the guys that

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Speaker 1: I used to play golf with and beat all the

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Speaker 1: time who retired three years are beating me now, so

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Speaker 1: I've got to try to retire and try to catch

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Speaker 1: up with him. But quite honestly, when I started doing

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Speaker 1: this thirty five years ago, I got the China People's

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Speaker 1: Daily two days late in the mail, and I was

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Speaker 1: still a week ahead of everybody else. Now everybody gets

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Speaker 1: the China People's Daily on the internet. I mean it's instantaneous.

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Speaker 1: So the transformation of the businesses has simply gone past me.

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Speaker 1: So I've decided that nearly seventy years old and getting

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Speaker 1: up for thirty five years at one o'clock in the

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Speaker 1: morning trying to knock this thing out, it's time to

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Speaker 1: say I've grown past. You always have to throw a

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Speaker 1: history into it. And you've got a wonderful thing here,

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Speaker 1: uh from a guy you used to work with, Jess Livermore,

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Speaker 1: and you go, after all, after all, this is a

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Speaker 1: bull market. It's still a bull market. It's still a

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Speaker 1: bull market. That's a great line from Reminiscences of a

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Speaker 1: Stock Operator, which is a book that everybody who's an

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Speaker 1: investor or a trader should read and reread twice. You

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Speaker 1: ought to see my copy. It's just dog eared beyond belief.

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Speaker 1: But there's a great section in there where Jesse is

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Speaker 1: talking about getting out of a winning trade and he

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Speaker 1: talks to old Turkey, and Old Turkey says, well, after all,

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Speaker 1: it's still a bull market, and there's something to be

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Speaker 1: said for that. It is still a bull market. Things

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Speaker 1: are going from the lower left to the upper right,

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Speaker 1: and they'll continue right this down until they stop. So

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Speaker 1: that's the question that we Tom and I probably get

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Speaker 1: most often here on surveillances. You know, we're ten plus

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Speaker 1: years into this economic cycle. The markets have just been

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Speaker 1: ripping since the financial crisis, and we just had a

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Speaker 1: great twenty nineteen. What do I do? Pray, pray, pray.

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Speaker 1: There's the trend is still up and it's it's shocking

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Speaker 1: to me. And four years ago I thought that the

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Speaker 1: bull market could have come to an end. Three years ago,

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Speaker 1: it should have come to an end. Two years ago,

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Speaker 1: it should have come to an end. It will come

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Speaker 1: to an end when it comes to an end. You

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Speaker 1: have indications the types of activities that occurred at tops.

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Speaker 1: We work as a perfect example of the market. You're

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Speaker 1: a big share old there, weren't you know? I was

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Speaker 1: trying to be I was hoping it would go public

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Speaker 1: so I could get short. You had the last week

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Speaker 1: that that wonderful banana attached to a wall with with

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Speaker 1: with duct tape. But no, actually a friend of mine, dude.

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Speaker 1: But those are the sorts of things that happened at

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Speaker 1: market tops. But you know this, the market looks like

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Speaker 1: it wants to go parabolic, and it'll it'll continue until

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Speaker 1: some geopolitical circumstances changes things. It's interesting, I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's I don't really. I'm trying to think back to

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Speaker 1: how the markets behaved during the ninety impeachment of President Clinton.

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Speaker 1: But this market doesn't care. It doesn't care. And should

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Speaker 1: it do You think, well, yes it should, but it doesn't.

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Speaker 1: And until it starts to care, then then it cares.

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Speaker 1: It'll care when it cares, and it won't care until then.

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Speaker 1: All news in this environment is bullish. That's simply the

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Speaker 1: matter of fact. That's what's going on. You may find

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Speaker 1: it ludicrous, and I find it absolutely ludicrous, But nonetheless,

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Speaker 1: to fight that trend, I've tried to fight it two

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Speaker 1: or three times. It's is it just I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: based upon my thirty years in the business, if there's one,

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Speaker 1: you know truism, I've learned, it's just interest rates. Do

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Speaker 1: not fight. The Fed's sitting on the sidelines. That was

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Speaker 1: Marty's Wag's great line, and it's something that everybody should remember.

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Speaker 1: Don't fight. We've seen this in space here, I mean,

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Speaker 1: and you've written about this, dentists, and it's to the

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Speaker 1: point of the great Martin's wide this year with a vengeance,

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Speaker 1: Central Bank has shown their power. They're on the edge

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Speaker 1: of altra accommodative inflation adjusted FED funds target rates rolling back.

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Speaker 1: Do you perceive we're going to more ultra accommodation? Do

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Speaker 1: they find normal see here? Or we all gonna get

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Speaker 1: faked out with them like we did last year when

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Speaker 1: they said rates are going up. What's their propensity to tighten?

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Speaker 1: I think their propensity to tighten a is borderline zero

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Speaker 1: for at least the next year or so. Is their

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Speaker 1: propensity to ease any any greater? Probably not. I think

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Speaker 1: we could be right where we're at and FED funds

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Speaker 1: a year from now is where we're at right now.

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's that's probably normal for the for

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Speaker 1: the next twelve months or zero Edge had a great

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Speaker 1: chart they took from somebody that was the six stop

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Speaker 1: top stocks are concentrated like they were in What does

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Speaker 1: that signal to you? That's the kind of activity that

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Speaker 1: you get into market top. But it can continue to

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Speaker 1: go for on Amazon and Apple. Now I got lucky

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Speaker 1: and I got gain. What do I do? Hang on,

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Speaker 1: put a stop in, buy puts, do something right? Calls?

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Speaker 1: But the markets told you that you're right? Why? Why

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Speaker 1: why would you get out? Every time the past two years,

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Speaker 1: every time I've had something that was profitable and I

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Speaker 1: decided I'd take a shot and get out, I'd wish

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Speaker 1: two weeks later that I hadn't done that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's just what the market's telling us. That one of

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Speaker 1: the great lines to to be UH embraced is it

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Speaker 1: was either by Lord Kings or my good friend Gary Shilling.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter who it went to Lord Lord Shilling. Yes,

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Speaker 1: the market can remain illogical far longer than you or

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Speaker 1: I can remain solving. We got thirty forty seconds here

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Speaker 1: and then we'll come back with you, Dennis. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's the call of our lifetimes has been Gary shilling

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Speaker 1: his call of the bond market. Absolutely absolutely, I couldn't

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Speaker 1: agree more. Yea, Gary nailed at people laughed at him

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Speaker 1: when he started to talk about it at thirty five

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Speaker 1: years ago, and he's been right ever since. It's extraordinary call.

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Speaker 1: What we're gonna do is come back with Dennis Gartman

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Speaker 1: lost to talk about here with futures that negative to

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Speaker 1: Mr Garban of course writing his letter. We protect the

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Speaker 1: copyright of all of our guests unless they're retiring. You

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Speaker 1: can get the garment letter and it will still be published.

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Speaker 1: Look for that from Mr Gartman. Yeah, I love this.

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Speaker 1: He's got seven and counting. Yes, he's counting his days counting.

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Speaker 1: Don't we all know we're coming in by the years

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Speaker 1: here and Mike Hast the surveillance casket out back, he's

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Speaker 1: gonna roll me into one day. The sadness last night

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Speaker 1: when Afterthought came into the room and said, does this

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Speaker 1: mean the president loses his job? And I've explained to

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Speaker 1: a twelve year old you know the process and what's

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Speaker 1: going on. The somberness yesterday of this as well, and

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Speaker 1: I want to go to your support, as you've written

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Speaker 1: in your note, for years of Republican politics. Can the

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Speaker 1: Republicans soparty Party of Lincoln survive this two thousand nine? No, No,

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Speaker 1: it cannot. The Republican Party has given up being the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party. It used to be the Party of lower

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Speaker 1: taxes and free trade. Now it's the Republican Party of

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Speaker 1: Mr Trump. And that's what it's become. It's a it's

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Speaker 1: a personality cult. And I find that disconcerting. I I

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Speaker 1: have been a Republican all my life, and I find

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Speaker 1: it very difficult to maintain my Is this the Whigs

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Speaker 1: of eighteen forty two? I mean, I mean, you're Steep

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Speaker 1: and Henry Clay. You went to it's a small college

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Speaker 1: in North Carolina, North State, which is the that's the

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Speaker 1: Land Grant Whig School of the South. But is this

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Speaker 1: Are they going to go the way of the Whigs? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think they're Sadly, they're going to disappear. I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid that that's exactly what's going to happen. Um.

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Speaker 1: The better minds of the party are leaving quietly at

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Speaker 1: the fringes. And and this is yeah, let me repeat,

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Speaker 1: this is disconcerting. You expect the Republicans to stand firm

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Speaker 1: and the President during the Senate and it's just a

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Speaker 1: political well, they have no choice. They know if they don't,

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Speaker 1: they're going to be scathingly viewed by the President on

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Speaker 1: the national media and they're gonna be hurt by it.

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Speaker 1: So he's he's in the controlling position. So the best

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Speaker 1: they'll get is the best the Democrats will get is

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Speaker 1: maybe one defector, and if that I'd be surprised. So

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Speaker 1: as an investor, as I you know, go through this

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Speaker 1: month of January, here is a risk to my portfolio

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Speaker 1: for wherever how the Senate issue plays out. No, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we know how the Senate issue is going to play out.

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Speaker 1: They need to get two thirds of percent of the

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Speaker 1: votes in the Senate. They're not going to get close

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Speaker 1: to that. In fact, it probably will be a majority

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Speaker 1: of voting in his favor. I may find that disconcerting,

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Speaker 1: but that's what that's the reality of circumstance. So what's

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Speaker 1: the what's the risk. The risk is that some untoward

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Speaker 1: news may come out of the president, some silly thing

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Speaker 1: that he said. But even that's I think relatively in

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Speaker 1: consequential risk. Agreed in the screen Dennis Gartment with us.

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Speaker 1: Of course, the garment letter eight thousand, three eighteen. When

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Speaker 1: Mr Gartman joined the business, that was a three twelve

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Speaker 1: actually right now, actually it was four seventy six seven.

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Speaker 1: I do remember that if somebody say, go to cash

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Speaker 1: right now, first time, first time caller into Bloomberg Surveillance.

425
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 1: This is Doug in Florida. Asked Doug a question for

426
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: Mr Gartener favorite fan, Hey Dougie, how are you, buddy? Doug?

427
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: A question for Mr Gartener? Please? Oh the question I

428
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:25,199
Speaker 1: just asked on Twitter? UM went did I ask? Oh? Yes, uh,

429
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 1: talk amongst yourself answer the following question. UM. In March

430
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: two thousand nine, I felt that the equity market, the SMP,

431
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 1: was making a generational bottom, as you know, UM. Back

432
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: in June or early July of two thousand sixteen, I

433
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: made the case that bond yields are making a generational low.

434
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 1: Your thoughts, I think the next generational low is First

435
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 1: of all, congratulations, Doug. I mean, and you have been

436
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 1: hammering those points home for years and years and you've

437
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 1: been absolutely right, so well done. I think if we're

438
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 1: asking where's the next generational low going to be? I

439
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: think the next generational low is going to be in

440
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: the commodity markets, I think things are unbelievably scathingly and

441
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: com from incomprehensibly cheap at this point. The generational trend

442
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 1: in the bond markets likely to continue to go with

443
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 1: rates are continuing to go lower and prices are going

444
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: to continue to go higher, and the generational low in

445
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: the stock market that's going to continue to move from

446
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: from the lower left to the upper right until it stops.

447
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: But if we're looking for another generational low for something

448
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 1: that's inexpensive commodities, Doug Cass Dennis Garbon's idea of long

449
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 1: terms three days, we all know the three hours, hours

450
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 1: hours as well. Doug, you have set the bar this

451
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 1: year for a discussion of the most owned Amazon, and

452
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: you've had the courage to go out with the five

453
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: year view or even longer justify what Mr Bezos is

454
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 1: doing right now. Yeah, I have a price target basically

455
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 1: around five thousand dollars looking out five years from now,

456
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: and um I was initially concerned and what kept me

457
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: for Amazon, Sir Thomas and Dennis was for some time

458
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 1: until December of two thousand eighteen one the stoques trading

459
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: around fifty dollars UM was that I was concerned about

460
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 1: um regulatory interference. They're making all these um you know,

461
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 1: horizontal um vertical acquisitions within retail industry and across other

462
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: industry lines, and I thought there would be severe anti

463
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 1: trust problems. And I've come to the conclusion that the

464
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 1: regulatory headwinds are not nearly as concerning as I thought. Indeed,

465
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: regulations might even deepen the company's mode or franchise value

466
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: as um. Less capitalized companies without the financial resources of

467
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: Amazon and Bezos will be ill equipped um um um

468
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: to comply with new regular ations. So I think Amazon,

469
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: obviously the early and first adopter to the concept of

470
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 1: buying on the Internet, has a much much larger runways

471
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: than most investors expect. Dennis tell us about long term investment.

472
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,479
Speaker 1: I mean, you've got trades, and your gold trade has

473
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: been brilliant. What do you like on that? All? Way

474
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: more than that way more I've had I've had it

475
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: on for five years, so okay, But but tell us

476
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: about how you do long term investment like Cass is

477
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: doing an Amazon right now. I wish I had the

478
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: intellect that Doug has, because you don't either do what

479
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 1: and then nobody does? You don't have his golf cap.

480
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: He's actually mine was actually better than his for a while,

481
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 1: but my mind's deteriorating. His is getting better. And as

482
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: I I gave Doug, as David Bowie said, changes and

483
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: software arms right, so I know you told me that's

484
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 1: how I went all the tournaments. Is got at forty

485
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: seconds left? Tell me how you do long term investment? Basically,

486
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 1: the first thing I look at is what's the chart

487
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: telling me? Is it going from the lower left to

488
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: the upper right as the new highest coming have new

489
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: have have the lower have low has been consistently higher.

490
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: I want to look at first of all, fundament technically,

491
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,959
Speaker 1: is something telling me I'm to be bullish? And then

492
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: I'll go find the fundamentals, which is contrary to what

493
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 1: most people are taught. I'll go find the fundamentals that

494
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: keep me involved with that long with that long term trend.

495
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 1: But again, I want to hire a hammer home. The

496
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: idea if you're looking for the next generational low, look

497
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: at look at owning commodity prices period kind of discussion.

498
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: Red wheats in there as well, red hard red winter wheats.

499
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: This has been wonderful. Dennis Gartman, thank you so much

500
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 1: the Gartman Leward, Doug Cass, thank you for joining us

501
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,719
Speaker 1: this morning. Cast smarter than we are. It's warmer in Florida.

502
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 1: See partners, What are we doing? Tom? Of course, Paul,

503
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: what do you see there? I mean, you know again,

504
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 1: it's a little lift to lift, a little lift to

505
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,479
Speaker 1: the market. You know, if we see this every day,

506
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: just kind of lifts a little bit every day and uh,

507
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: in the absence of any news to see drifts higher.

508
00:27:54,160 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: You didn't tell Dennis, I'm in the triple webers Worth Slee.

509
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 1: It's worked out well this year. Welcome all of you worldwide.

510
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: We welcome with great sympathy all of you the two

511
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: points seven million taking the c f A exam in

512
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 1: June of two thousand twenty as well. Let me explain

513
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: it at the full disclosure. Cif A Institute has been

514
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: a huge supporter of what I do here at Bloomberg.

515
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: I am a member of the cif A Institute, and

516
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 1: I used to slide rule. That's how far back it goes.

517
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: An annual visit with Margaret Fitzgerald Franklin rather Margaret Franklin

518
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: of CFA, their president and CEO, and we welcome her

519
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: here today to talk about the future of Wall Street

520
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: and what the cf A Institute is doing. None of

521
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: that matters. You grew up with Frank Mahavelich. I mean

522
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: that's really cool. In Toronto. He was one of our heroes.

523
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: He was This is folks in hockey. When one play

524
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: are could change the game and Frank Mahavelich would sit

525
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: in the sun of the ice in the offensive zone

526
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: and no one could touch him. Your dad sharpened our

527
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: skates at least side Memorial Gardens. There were six teams.

528
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: This is back when it was real hockey, and they

529
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: were as you mentioned before, they were. It was a

530
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: down to earth thing. It wasn't people making eight or

531
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 1: fifteen million dollars a year. It was a really basic

532
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: It was a real thing. Let's let's talk about see

533
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 1: if A and start in Toronto. International organization you are

534
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: focused on see if A Toronto now in charge of

535
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: all of the world wide platform. How are you adapting

536
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: to the international nature? So it started out in Charlottesville, Virginia.

537
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: So let me just say I'm actually in Charlottesville. We

538
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: have nine offices around the world. Toronto is a society,

539
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 1: so I'm Canadian. But now the global CEO, and UM,

540
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 1: I would say my roots in Toronto actually probably the

541
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: most multicultural city in the world. Uh, we have we

542
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: have a large contingent of Chinese passport holders taking the

543
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: exams and elsewhere from around the world in Toronto, as

544
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: is the case in many Canadian cities. UM, And when

545
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: I wrote my exam, it was not as global. It

546
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: wasn't even close to being global the way it is

547
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: right now. How have you adapted the exam to the

548
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: new mathiness of global law street. It used to be

549
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: my son played lacrosse with your son? Do you have

550
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: an intern program? I mean that used to be out

551
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: it went and now it's about intellectual chops. How have

552
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: you adapted that ten years on? So the c f

553
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: A program has really two elements to it that keep

554
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: it current and on point. The first is the practice analysis.

555
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: That's where we go out to practitioners and make sure

556
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: that what's in the curriculum is relevant for call at

557
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: the just qualified candidate. The other aspect of that is

558
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: we get a lot of material that then informs our

559
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: professional learning. So, once you've got your charter, what is

560
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: the thought leadership, the skills, knowledge and capabilities that you

561
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,959
Speaker 1: need so that practice analysis is a critical component not

562
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: only of curriculum, but also of our lifelong learning. So, Margaret,

563
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 1: you're the first female CEO of the c f A Institute.

564
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 1: Talk to us a little bit about the diversity that

565
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: you see in the folks taken the cf A globally

566
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: now nowadays, So I am the first female CEO and

567
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: it's seventy three year history. UM, our industry suffers from

568
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: a lack of diversity. We are seeing the numbers change.

569
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: So for instance, China is fifty women in the candidate program. Um.

570
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 1: But but frankly, I got my charter in nine seven.

571
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: At that point, nineteen percent of the charter holders were women,

572
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: and it's our eighteen percent. It's now nineteen percent, UM

573
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: over twenty years later. So five years ago, myself and

574
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 1: Leah Bennett, who's a board member, started the Women in

575
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: Investment Management Initiative, which cf A Institute backed. Five years ago.

576
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 1: We had to present the evidence that actually having diverse

577
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: teams and including women, which is the universal diversity issue,

578
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: would improve risk and return. And what did you learn, um,

579
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: really that that the core tenant of portfolio diversification never

580
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: made it into team construction. UM. What I would say

581
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: is five years later, we don't have to push evidence.

582
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: We now see an energy and intensity by employers for

583
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 1: tools and strategies that will help them attract necessary and

584
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: critical um talent to make the best teams that they

585
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: can well. And I'm thrilled to announced, folks, my year

586
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: in program this year with Golden Sex is Abby Joseph Cohen.

587
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: Take Abby Joseph Cohen, who was a pioneer as an

588
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: economist and whether prodigious financial skills writing in the f

589
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: A J Journal as well, or someone like Sally craw

590
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: Check at sent for Burnsting as well. These are people

591
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: that were pioneers. They had prodigious intellectual chops. Why are

592
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: we floating at nine on females within the CFA institute?

593
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: That stunts? So the I think some of the language

594
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: we use doesn't attract the right type of people. So

595
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: when we use quant language and very mathematical language, it

596
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: sometimes doesn't appeal to the values. And the core of

597
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: what we do is developing portfolios to solve problem. But

598
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: women in finance have prodigious math abilities, I believe, and

599
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 1: Richards will join me in Davos with Fidelity International. Now

600
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: I mean she's first rate mathematical skills. Why can't we

601
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: jump start ourselves away from that? Mathew, no stereotype for women,

602
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 1: including my daughters. So I think, actually, right now, that's

603
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: exactly what That's exactly what we're doing. And I will

604
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 1: say there's an intensity and intention by employers around attracting women,

605
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 1: and that actually will take some time to make it

606
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: through um the pipe, but we really see something quite different.

607
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: I might note that oftentimes when it gets to trust

608
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: and when you move up through the ranks, uh, you

609
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: tend to gravitate to those who look like you. And

610
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 1: so it's critically important that we have women in those

611
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: senior leadership roles because if I can see it, I

612
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: can imagine it. Visibility is validity. So Margaret, Tom and

613
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 1: I wish speak to a lot of fund managers here

614
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: in a surveillance studio. What we're hearing more and more

615
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 1: about is E s G. Environmental sustainability and governance factoring

616
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 1: into their investment process more and more. How is that?

617
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: How are you incorporating that into the c FA curriculum.

618
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 1: So we've actually had it in the curriculum for about

619
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: the last five years. Of course it's increasing and importance.

620
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: So when we talk to practitioners and we do that

621
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 1: practice analysis, it really comes up what an observation is

622
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: that in particular, the US has been behind in this.

623
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: We've seen accelerating dramatically in the last six months UM

624
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: As portfolio managers, there is an increasing attention to what

625
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 1: might be the Minsky moment that immediate repricing of asset.

626
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: And so when we think about what charter holders do,

627
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 1: which is adhere to a fiduciary standard, putting their clients

628
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 1: interests of their own and solid research and due diligence,

629
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 1: you really probably want to make sure that you're paying

630
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: attention to those e s G. Factors that can material

631
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 1: impact UM security pricing and portfolio pricing. I was an

632
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: equity research analysts on the Cell side and then here

633
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg for thirty years. So I saw the article

634
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg Kernel today that was very disturbing. Analyst

635
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: jobs vanish as a perfect store crashes into research. Whether

636
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: it's mifted to just the decline of commissions, what are

637
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: you seeing from the cell side, what is that impacting

638
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: the demand for charter for the CFA designation at all.

639
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 1: We still see the demand as very high. So we're

640
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,240
Speaker 1: at the let's call it, at top of a market.

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00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 1: And that's often when you start to see a little

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00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: leveling off, when we have a contraction the need for

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00:35:55,320 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 1: better educated, more ethically oriented people striving for professionals, and

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00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 1: it's becomes much more apparent. So, um, we don't see

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00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: a diminishment in demand for the charter uh and for

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00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: charter holders, but the nature of what they're doing is

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00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: probably going to change over time. One final question question

648
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 1: a fund manager's alpha is the part of the fund's

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00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 1: return that can be attributed to one the market skill,

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00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: luck And we're not sure is it one and two,

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00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: one and three or one three and four. I may

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00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: posit this a little bit differently. We tend to base off.

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00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: We love our four decimal places. I think the greatest

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00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 1: challenge for portfolio managers is to really understand what it

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00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: is clients are trying to achieve, balance the competing priorities,

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00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 1: to develop a resilient portfolio that actually gets them where

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00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 1: they need to get to. It may or may not

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00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 1: include beating a benchmark. It may not be beating in

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00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: Butch Park. But once again this year they're like, wait

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00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: a minute, the market was up. What happened? Well, hopefully,

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00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: if it's properly diversified, everybody understand what the portfolio is

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00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 1: designed to do. Margret Fitzgerald, thank you for Rgret Franklin. No,

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00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: that's my eyes are failing me. Here it's Scotch. Margaret Franklin,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much with the c f A Institute

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00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 1: of Charlottesville, Virginia. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio