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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju Us prout read enough for running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 2: so sweet, Standard sixteen just glory extrocution. Guys, all I'm

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Speaker 2: looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of

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Speaker 2: the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with kind of buddy and

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Speaker 3: that's why.

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Speaker 2: You see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody pictionable, shut up the one is left to one

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Speaker 2: of the why eye glory want?

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to one of your favorite doctor betting podcast,

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Speaker 1: prow actually presented to you by our sponsors Petree sixty five,

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Speaker 1: any game and get two hundred in bonus bets. Money

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Speaker 1: is Michael Lieboff joining me is always my co hosts

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Speaker 1: and colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabundo. We have a

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Speaker 1: full slate of Premier League matches to go over. We'll

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Speaker 1: take a little tour around Europe as usual, stop in

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Speaker 1: Bundesliga Aliga. Here give out our three leg underdog parlay

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Speaker 1: and then our favorite bets in the Premier League before

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Speaker 1: we get out of here. And we're gonna start with

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Speaker 1: the headliner in the Premier League, which is Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: a kickoff between Liverpool and Arsenal. Liverpool at home plus

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Speaker 1: one seventy five. They are an underdog. Arsenal plus one

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Speaker 1: forty five to draw is plus two sixty the Gunners

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Speaker 1: BJ you'r gunners eight points up on City going into

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Speaker 1: the weekend. They've played one more match. I think people

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Speaker 1: have this one circled as a potential hurdle that needs

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Speaker 1: clearing by Michel te An. Arsenal going to anfield taking

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Speaker 1: on a Liverpool team that is mid table this season

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Speaker 1: defensively a wreck relative to where they're supposed to be.

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Speaker 1: Am I is it just too square to think that

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Speaker 1: this game, which features a really, you know, still a

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Speaker 1: strong Liverpool attack, to think that it's just taken over.

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Speaker 1: I think three and a half at plus one sixty

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Speaker 1: eight I saw out there looks pretty appealing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I really like Arsenal team total over

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Speaker 2: one and a half. You can get it at plus

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Speaker 2: one fifteen at some shops. Right now, It's like It's

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Speaker 2: the same story with Liverpool every weekend and week out right.

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Speaker 2: I mean they've they're in a very difficult run of

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Speaker 2: matches here. They just traveled the city and got dismantled

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Speaker 2: by them. They go to Chelsea. Obviously they don't concede

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Speaker 2: that they can see over two point two expected goals

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Speaker 2: and now they got to face an artional offense that

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Speaker 2: over their last nine matches have only been held under

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Speaker 2: one and a half expected goal one time, and that

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Speaker 2: was a match against Lester when they were basically just

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Speaker 2: controlling the entire match. So I don't really see what

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Speaker 2: Liverpool what problems Liverpool's defense is gonna present Arsenal. Right,

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Speaker 2: it's like the same conversation. Do you press Arsenal high?

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Speaker 2: Will they can play right through you because they're outstanding

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Speaker 2: and playing through pressure. Do you sit back and try

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Speaker 2: to stay compact? Well, Arsenal's incredibly good at creating overloads

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the pitch and then also beating

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Speaker 2: you out wide in one on ones with Martinelli and Sokka.

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Speaker 2: So I really don't know what Liverpool is going to do.

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Speaker 2: They did not have an answer for Chelsea. Again, Chelsea

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Speaker 2: didn't score, so you know the found score line makes

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Speaker 2: it look a lot better than it did clean sheet

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Speaker 2: for clop but again, it's just when Liverpool's played the

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Speaker 2: Big Six this season, in seven matches, They've conceded fifteen

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Speaker 2: point seven expected goals like they are getting destroyed by

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Speaker 2: the rest of the Big Six. So I have no

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Speaker 2: reasonably why Arsenal can't do the same here. Away from home,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool's defense has been a little bit better at Anfield,

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Speaker 2: but again, now Arsenal being without Saliba, without Tomyasu, Anthony

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Speaker 2: has been just fading their defense week in and week

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Speaker 2: out on this podcast, and yeah, they continue to concede.

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Speaker 2: So I would rather target the Arsenal offense here than

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Speaker 2: any type of money line or John Obett so Arsenal

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Speaker 2: over one and a half goals for me, I project

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Speaker 2: them around one point eight one point nine goals for

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Speaker 2: this match. I think there's tremendous value on the gunners

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Speaker 2: to put the ball in the back that at least twice.

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Speaker 1: Anthony, anything for you here, Yeah, I mean.

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Speaker 3: I've faded Arsenal's defense three the last four league matches.

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Speaker 3: We are three and oh on those fades, and this

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Speaker 3: is going to make it a fourth consecutive I'm going

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Speaker 3: to take both teams to score in over two and

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Speaker 3: a half goals minus one twelve is the best price

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Speaker 3: I was able to find out there on that It

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Speaker 3: is square, no doubt about it. We are definitely hip.

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Speaker 3: Huey lewis in the news to be square here, but

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Speaker 3: I don't really see a path either. Liverpool had no

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Speaker 3: answers for either man City or Chelsea in either match,

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Speaker 3: and I understand that it was a rotated team. I

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Speaker 3: do expect most sala Verrgil and Like and Thiago all

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Speaker 3: to play for Liverpool, and then that upgrades them quite

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Speaker 3: a bit. The market has moved very heavily against Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: As of Saturday morning, Arsenal was an underdog here. The

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Speaker 3: line was essentially flipped with Liverpool round plus one forty

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Speaker 3: Arsenal round plus one eighty. My projections make this a

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Speaker 3: true coin flip, so I would have a tiny bit

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Speaker 3: of value on Liverpool. But again you're really bucking you

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Speaker 3: know who in the world is betting Liverpool here this weekend.

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Speaker 3: That is the one thing that makes me want to

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Speaker 3: bet them a little bit. Like Arsenal come in in

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Speaker 3: great form. They've been rolling everybody Liverpool comes in and

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Speaker 3: ship form. They just got the you know, their brains

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Speaker 3: beat out of them for two matches against superior teams.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, Liverpool's matches since the World Cup break have

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Speaker 3: averaged three and a half expected goals. And you know

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Speaker 3: we've talked about Arsenal. They've conceded one point two x

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Speaker 3: g per match since the World Cup in the league

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Speaker 3: and have struggled a little bit defensively. And you're up

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Speaker 3: to against Sporting in those two matches. So this is

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Speaker 3: an Arsenal defense. It's shorthanded. It's a Liverpool attack that

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Speaker 3: I still love at home. You expect an open affair

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Speaker 3: and so I like both teams scoring over two and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 2: In this one.

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Speaker 1: Saturday morning, seven thirty am Eastern Time kickoff between Manchester

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Speaker 1: United minus two hundred hosting Everton plus six fifty. The

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Speaker 1: draw is plus three thirty three. The Toffee's coming off

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Speaker 1: a famous draw against Tottenham. Anthony I was updating him

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Speaker 1: because he wasn't watching. I couldn't really describe I watched it,

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Speaker 1: I couldn't really find the words to describe. Michael Keynes,

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Speaker 1: Bill Jaggieyelka esque game tie in goal Everdence three three

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Speaker 1: and three under Seawan Ditsch in that span a minus

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Speaker 1: one point six expected goal differential. When you look at

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Speaker 1: the quality competition and the stakes, it's it's pretty damn impressive.

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Speaker 1: The turnaround at Goodison Park. I think with Everett in

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Speaker 1: they're becoming a team. And this isn't just me saying

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Speaker 1: it as an Everdent fan that when the number gets

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Speaker 1: to this range, they're a live Diysch's teams. You know

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Speaker 1: what you're gonna get out of them. They're gonna work hard,

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Speaker 1: They're gonna make life hell on you in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the field. They're gonna fight for every ball. They're

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Speaker 1: not gonna give up cheap to anything cheap, whether it

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Speaker 1: be on a set piece or whatever. And they're going

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Speaker 1: to create on set pieces and give you a lot

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Speaker 1: to think about when they have a chance from direct kicks.

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Speaker 1: Those are the qualities of a good underdog. And I

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Speaker 1: know this is at Old Trafford, and I know United

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Speaker 1: are miles ahead of Everden, but I think the topees

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Speaker 1: are just always going to be dangerous at paying out

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Speaker 1: of these prices like they I don't think it's unfair

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Speaker 1: to say they've got one or two more wins like

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Speaker 1: this left in their locker for the rest of the season,

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Speaker 1: with the way that they've looked under Deutsch, Anthony, anything

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Speaker 1: for you. I know you and BJ aren't too hot

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Speaker 1: on this one. From a Benning's standpoint.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was really hoping for one and a half.

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Speaker 3: I thought we'd get it, but we didn't, so I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna pass. I kind of think my number is a

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Speaker 3: little bit high on United. I have them closer to

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Speaker 3: minus one eighty, but I still have them as a

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Speaker 3: solid home favorite here. I still have major question marks

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Speaker 3: about Everton's defense, which you know performed well against Spurs overall,

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Speaker 3: but again, like what does that even mean this year?

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Speaker 3: I'm still conceded, you know, two actually to Branford over

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Speaker 3: to to Spurs don't defend well. So yeah, especially going

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Speaker 3: away from home, I'd be more inclined to bet them

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Speaker 3: plus a half at home than I will be plus

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Speaker 3: one on the road.

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Speaker 2: In this spot.

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Speaker 3: If it gets to plus one point twenty five flat,

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Speaker 3: I'd probably still get there and bet it, But I

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Speaker 3: have to lay juice for that now, Like minus one

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty five on the plus one two point two five,

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Speaker 3: I just can't quite get there. Look, I think we're

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Speaker 3: starting to see what the problem could be for an

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Speaker 3: United going forward here with not even if after Casamira returns,

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Speaker 3: Just like in the match today, in the match against Newcastle,

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Speaker 3: there's just not enough shots and it's still been a

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Speaker 3: problem and it's just Anthony taking bad shots, Rashford being

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Speaker 3: the only consistent good shot producer and what that means,

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Speaker 3: especially when Casimiro is out, which he will be again,

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Speaker 3: so this is the third match of his four match

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Speaker 3: ban and then he'll be back for Chelsea in the

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Speaker 3: end of the month, which will be a fascinating matchup.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I have no real interest here. From betting perspective,

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Speaker 3: could see a BTTs, but with the United's defense kind

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Speaker 3: of just being more shaky out of possession.

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Speaker 1: Another underdog I've interested in is not even forced there

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Speaker 1: plus four fifty. At Phillip Park, Phyllis MIGHTUS won seventy five.

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Speaker 1: The draw here is plus three twenty. I owe paston

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Speaker 1: Villa an apology. I put them on the beach like

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Speaker 1: a month ago. They're six points out of a Champions

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Speaker 1: League spot. I mean, I come on, no, but however

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Speaker 1: you want to say, I have however you want to

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Speaker 1: say they're not on the beach. Like, if you're six

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Speaker 1: points out of a Champions League spot with nine to go,

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Speaker 1: you're not on the beach. So all the ssen Villa fans,

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Speaker 1: I do know one sen Villa fans who listens to

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Speaker 1: us regularly, I do apologize. You're not on the beach,

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Speaker 1: You're off the beach. You're still work, you're still at work.

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Speaker 3: It's too early for that, I think.

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Speaker 2: But here's I mean, it looked like it, like they

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Speaker 2: how did we miss?

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Speaker 3: I know they've run really well right then the win

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Speaker 3: against Leicester was no exception where you know they get

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Speaker 3: the red card and then they get one turnover the

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Speaker 3: tryer just shoots and he arrows it into the top

199
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Speaker 3: corner and just shambles. But how did we not profit

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Speaker 3: off of a Unai emory improving a team? I don't

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Speaker 3: know as a podcast, like how did we how did

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Speaker 3: we screw that up? Like the defense is not upset

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Speaker 3: at all.

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Speaker 1: They just start former manager and like we had me

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Speaker 1: and ahead of Vendetta against Gerrard and you you have

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Speaker 1: you had this poster up in your room.

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Speaker 3: It's it's freny because that at the beginning of the season. Remember,

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Speaker 3: I bet them best non Big six team at like

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Speaker 3: seven to one, and I wrote that ticket off for Dad,

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Speaker 3: and then I went back and I looked at it.

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Speaker 3: I was like, hmmm, are we still live here? And

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Speaker 3: like we're not because of Newcastle and Brighton, But for

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Speaker 3: one moment I was like that ticket could win. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, look like their defense has stopped conceding goals,

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Speaker 3: but they haven't stopped conceding chances, and so for me,

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Speaker 3: that makes them a dangerous favorite. I think they're clearly

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Speaker 3: better than Forrest. If this gets over one, though, I'm

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Speaker 3: going to take the trees I like for I think

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Speaker 3: they're not good enough defensively to trust them. Villa that well,

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Speaker 3: of course, but Villa in the situation.

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Speaker 1: Since the World Cup, Aston Villa has their the fourth

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Speaker 1: most points in the Premier League you know, games at

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Speaker 1: hand whatever, But that's despite a minus five and a

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Speaker 1: half expected goal differential and the third worst expectacles allowed.

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Speaker 1: They're expected points according to understat seventeen, actual points twenty

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Speaker 1: six in that timeframe.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and something's coming from bro.

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Speaker 3: Has them conceding one point one goals per match and conceit.

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Speaker 3: Since the World Cup conceding about one point eight XG

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Speaker 3: eight per match and that that that's a huge gap. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's necessarily been shot stopping either. I went back and

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Speaker 3: looked at some of the Martinez numbers and like he's been.

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Speaker 2: Slightly above that.

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Speaker 3: He's still on the Yeah, I mean he personally yeeah,

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Speaker 3: so Bill and not on the beach.

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Speaker 1: Their goalkeeper on the beach and they.

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Speaker 3: Played even with Lester. I don't know that match was

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Speaker 3: very even until the red guard.

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Speaker 2: I mean this match kind of sets up. You know.

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Speaker 2: We've seen a couple of teams that have played similarly

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Speaker 2: to what Nottingham Forest is going to do, like the

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Speaker 2: match against Everton where Everton was very dangerous in transition.

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Speaker 2: Against aston Villa, they created close to two expected goals,

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Speaker 2: just didn't put the ball on the back of the net.

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Speaker 2: West Ham put up or two expected goals against them,

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Speaker 2: only scored once. Chelsea obviously put in a great performance

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Speaker 2: for Graham, Potter got sacked, created over two expected goals,

248
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Speaker 2: couldn't find the back of the net last six manes.

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Speaker 2: Aston Villa is conceded seven point eight expected goals and

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Speaker 2: only conceded twice overall. So and I also saw that

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Speaker 2: Uniamriy has the third most points in the Premier League

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Speaker 2: since he took over Aston Villa. Only Arsenal in Manchester

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Speaker 2: City are the only two teams that have more points,

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Speaker 2: and right behind him is Brighton and Bournemouth. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean I went through my projections and you know,

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Speaker 2: I have Forest at plus round plus three fifty and

257
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Speaker 2: I was entering in the number and I was showing

258
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Speaker 2: edge of their money line at plus four forty. I

259
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Speaker 2: was like, all right, are we are we doing this?

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Speaker 2: I guess, like because now the market's going to be

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Speaker 2: a little overvalued on Aston Villa, So yeah, I guess

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Speaker 2: we're going. I guess we're going with the tricky trees

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Speaker 2: this weekend, Michael. But I'm with Anthony. I think I

264
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Speaker 2: need a straight you know, plus one at like minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty the money right here. I mean, because there's

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Speaker 2: a blowout.

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Speaker 1: I think there's just as much blowout potential with this,

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Speaker 1: and I agree.

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Speaker 2: It's yeah, Like it's just the nodding em Forest away

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Speaker 2: from Home thing. It's just always stuck in my head

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Speaker 2: whenever yeah, I see them, like it's just like it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I understand that they've underperformed on the road. But to

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Speaker 2: score five goals in fourteen matches and conceed thirty four

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Speaker 2: is just in a very very alarming thing to look at.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, I could be smart and just say like, oh,

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Speaker 2: they're do positive aggression because they've created twelve and a

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Speaker 2: half xpack to goals in the roads that are due

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Speaker 2: to to score at least, you know something. So I

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Speaker 2: don't know, maybe I will be on force, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's the market's getting a little too high with how

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Speaker 2: good Astonville has been running.

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Speaker 1: Zero wins, three draws, five pluses in their last eight

283
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Speaker 1: ringing endorsement, but and their x G data doesn't really

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00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:41,280
Speaker 1: suggest that they deserve anything better than their minus ten

285
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 1: goal differential. And that's man, But it's just this Villa

286
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:48,600
Speaker 1: team's not that good, you know. Forced like with Steve Cooper,

287
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Speaker 1: he got backed by the owner today, and I think

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Speaker 1: this is just this is a game that I think

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Speaker 1: they'll have circled as a potential like let's steal three

290
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 1: points to up our cause it just it feels like

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Speaker 1: a really good spot to sell high end on aston Villa,

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Speaker 1: who all three of us can agree are running quite hot.

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Speaker 2: So oh and we get we get Forrest in a

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Speaker 2: slam spot after that, I got United at home. Perfect.

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Speaker 2: So if Forrest.

296
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Speaker 3: A goal in a quarter there, oh yeah, you can

297
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Speaker 3: roll it over.

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Speaker 1: Just the money, it's some money. It's a money if United.

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Speaker 2: Oh and then then then even better, Michael. They go

300
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Speaker 2: to Liverpool after that.

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Speaker 1: See there you got three three plus four, you get

302
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Speaker 1: like what plus four fifty? Then you roll that over

303
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 1: on time. Yeah, it's just gonna be in the same.

304
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Speaker 2: Uh.

305
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 1: Brentford and Newcastle. Now the Bees plus two sixty at home,

306
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,040
Speaker 1: Newcastle plus one ten coming off of a five to

307
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Speaker 1: one victory over west Ham. The Bees are wobbling a

308
00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 1: little bit. Uh, two and one in the last three win, draw, loss,

309
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,800
Speaker 1: six point three e spectacles allowed in that span. A

310
00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:01,960
Speaker 1: lot of that obviously came in that circus against Brighton.

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00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,200
Speaker 1: I would lean towards Brentford here, I don't, don't. It's

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00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,920
Speaker 1: not like it's not jumping off the page at me

313
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 1: like that. That not even force number is. But that's

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00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,040
Speaker 1: where I'd be looking at bj What do you have?

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Speaker 2: I actually like to look at the over here. You

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00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 2: know the matches between these two teams. Obviously Brentford, this

317
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,520
Speaker 2: is only Brentford's second season in the Premier League. But

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Speaker 2: they've been very, very chaotic the three times that they've

319
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Speaker 2: faced each other. We look back last season at Saint

320
00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 2: Jay's Park, it was a thrilling three to three draw

321
00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,440
Speaker 2: where Newcastle created over two and a half expected goals.

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Speaker 2: Then the reverse fixture at the Brentford Community State and

323
00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:38,560
Speaker 2: Brentford got a red card and like the tenth minute

324
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 2: and then Newcastle scored four goals against them. And in

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00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,400
Speaker 2: the earlier meeting at Saint Jane's Park, Newcastle beat them

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Speaker 2: five to one off of one point five expected goals

327
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Speaker 2: and Brentford's only goals off and I have been Tony

328
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: penalty so and I think this is just something that

329
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 2: kind of gets lost. And when betting the Premier League

330
00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,520
Speaker 2: and styles of play with you know, Brentford and Newcastle

331
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Speaker 2: are obviously two of the better defensive teams in the

332
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 2: Premier League and are very very good at sitting deep

333
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,160
Speaker 2: and defending their penalty area. But when you have two

334
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 2: teams that play a very similar style, a very transitional,

335
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 2: you know, looking to beat teams on counter, it actually

336
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 2: creates a very end to end style match and you

337
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,920
Speaker 2: saw that with Newcastle and United with the way Newcastle

338
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 2: was able to press them and get chances going in transition,

339
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 2: the same thing when Newcastle just went and face Nottingham

340
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 2: for us, another low block transitional team where there's a

341
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:28,960
Speaker 2: lot of end to end type stuff that can happen

342
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 2: with these two matches. So I'm progrectioning close to three

343
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:37,119
Speaker 2: goals between these two sides, So I think this is

344
00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 2: a decent spot for an over Obviously, Newcastle just put

345
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 2: five past west Ham, who is one of the better

346
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 2: low block defensive teams in the Premier League, so I

347
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,720
Speaker 2: think it's a good spot here for the over all.

348
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 1: Three of us are in agreement for this next one.

349
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 1: West Ham will travel across London take on Fulham Fulham

350
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 1: plus one eighty west Ham plus one sixty two draw

351
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,680
Speaker 1: plus two twenty five. The Cottagers will be with thought

352
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 1: Alexander Mitrovich, who eight matches you can't do dust up

353
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:15,640
Speaker 1: with an official. Fulham's one and three win, jaw lost

354
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: and then last four nine goals allowed in that span,

355
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Speaker 1: four scored and they just gave up over three expected

356
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Speaker 1: goals to mighty Bournemouth anteon. You can go first here,

357
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,159
Speaker 1: but I think this one, this is a really good

358
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 1: spot for the team that we're betting.

359
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you get hammered in the midweek, crushed

360
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 3: in that match, then you get to go on the

361
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 3: road against in a London derby. But really this is

362
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 3: just like classic positive aggression team, negative aggression team. West

363
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 3: Ham back against the wall with moys here Fulham. I think,

364
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 3: you know, we've talked about them over and over again overachieving,

365
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 3: but now you're finally starting to see the regression. They've

366
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 3: lost three in a row in the league, gave up

367
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,880
Speaker 3: over two expected goals in all three of those matches.

368
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 3: Really weren't competitive in any of those matches. I know

369
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Speaker 3: that they ended up, you know, they took the lead

370
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 3: on Bournemouth, but that pretty much was one way traffic

371
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 3: for the majority of the match, got blown out by Arsenal.

372
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,320
Speaker 3: They've been much better at home this year, but again

373
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 3: I just don't trust this attack. They don't really seem

374
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 3: to have a plan B. And this is very quietly

375
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 3: an attack that even before they lost Mitrovic had only

376
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:29,200
Speaker 3: created more than one expected goal in two out of

377
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,200
Speaker 3: six matches. So you're talking about a Fulham team that

378
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 3: just ran over its skis for the entirety of the

379
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 3: first half of the season and now reality is setting

380
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 3: in west Ham Toronto, Bett, I project them around minus

381
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 3: one twenty, so I'm happy to take them minus one ten.

382
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,240
Speaker 3: I still have west Ham as a top ten team

383
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: in the league. That sounds crazy, but they're tenth for me,

384
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:57,159
Speaker 3: and I still have Fulham sitting fourteenth, so you know,

385
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 3: tenth at fourteenth, there's a bit of a drop off

386
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 3: between those teams. I project west Ham better and I

387
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 3: still better away from home. Give me the Hammers.

388
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with y'all. I'm going to take the Hammers

389
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,239
Speaker 1: on the money line. It's yeah, when I just keep

390
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 1: sinking money into David Moy's ship until he goes down.

391
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: He treated me so well last season. VJ Final thoughts

392
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 1: here on west Ham and Fulham.

393
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's just an awesome slam spot here

394
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 2: for west Ham. You know what's crazy is like, you know,

395
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 2: west Ham, I agree with you if they are a

396
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,879
Speaker 2: top ten team. They actually have a better expected goldferential

397
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 2: than Chelsea this season, which I think is very, very

398
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,439
Speaker 2: crazy to think about. You know, plus three points one.

399
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 2: Chelsea's at plus two point three. I mean Fulham's now

400
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 2: fourth to last and expect a gold differential, like Alexander

401
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 2: Mitrovich is probably would you say, the most important player

402
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 2: to his individual team in the Premier League of what

403
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: they want to accomplish and how they can actually have

404
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 2: success because we know the spell forul them. They want

405
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 2: to get about the Valla wide, they want to swing

406
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 2: in process and to be able to do that, you

407
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 2: gotta have a great front man and a guy can

408
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 2: go get those crosses like Mitrovic. Carls Nis just really

409
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 2: isn't that type of guy. So we've seen a little

410
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 2: bit of what Fulham is like without Mitrovich. They've been

411
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 2: without him for seven matches in the Premier League this season.

412
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 2: Without him, they're only averaging point eight to one expected

413
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 2: goals per match with him in the lineup there at

414
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: one point three seven, So he makes about a half

415
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 2: a goal difference to what Fulham can do offensively. So

416
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 2: this is just a really, really good west Ham spot

417
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: who has been by expected goals half a goal per

418
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: ninety better than Fulham this season. So even accounting for

419
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 2: home field advantage, even not taking into account Mitrovich being out,

420
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 2: there's no way you can get to west Ham. Basically

421
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 2: being a straight pick, I'm here at craven Cottage. So

422
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 2: I'm with you guys west Ham jon a Bett minus

423
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 2: one ten.

424
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you mentioned it. Mitrovich was getting three point

425
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 3: nine to seven shots per ninety this season, which is

426
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 3: ridiculously good.

427
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 2: He's the most important player to his team in the

428
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 2: Premier League.

429
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's and twelve expected goals in twenty so a

430
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 3: little over zero point six XU per ninety. Carlos Fvenisius

431
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 3: is getting two fewer shots per match and actually doesn't

432
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 3: have terrible uh you know, passing numbers, like gets involved

433
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 3: in the build up a little bit, But thirteen shots

434
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 3: and seven matches is really bad. And one point six

435
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 3: x G just not striker level production.

436
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 1: We've seen it.

437
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 3: We've seen enough Carlos veneties and this.

438
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 2: Is something to keep in mind because you know, like

439
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 2: we saw warrenm myth last week is like these. I

440
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 2: believe I believe the market is going to correct once

441
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 2: Betrivich is going to be out here for a long time.

442
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 2: I mean, his return data is going to be May thirteenth.

443
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 2: It's going to be a long time before he actually

444
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 2: comes back. So I would implore people that, you know,

445
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 2: the downswing happens when we talk about expected goals and

446
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 2: teams that are overperformed. The fallen team is overborn for

447
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 2: a really, really long time and now they're without their

448
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 2: best player. This is when the downswing happens. So get

449
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 2: in on the Fulham fades early and often before Metrovich

450
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: comes back.

451
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: Leicester City sans Brandon Rodgers minus won twenty, hosting Born

452
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: with plus three twenty that draw plus two eighty. I

453
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: got nothing here, I mean it would.

454
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 2: I had to I guess, say, my god, I had

455
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: to do a double take because their their interim manager

456
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 2: is Adam Sandler. Yeah, I thought it was Adam Sandler

457
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 2: for a second.

458
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: About collapsed just with the way that they living, like

459
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: the way that soccer's gone celebrity. Uh. I know you

460
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: wouldn't put it past the team because they are they

461
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:23,239
Speaker 1: are co caretaking managers, right so but yeah, I mean

462
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: from a betting standpoint, this is an easy pass.

463
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would say this like Lester came

464
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 2: out in a very very defensive formation and they started

465
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: vardy up top, which was I thought was quite interesting

466
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 2: against aston Villa. So if they do that here against Bournemouth,

467
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 2: I mean you may be potentially looking at it under

468
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: like I project two point four to two goals for

469
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: this match. So if they start Vardy up top and

470
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: they come out you know with Indeedy and and Dewsbury

471
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: Hall and they and they benched some of their attacking players,

472
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 2: that you might be able to get a chance for

473
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: an under. But yeah, this is a very easy pass.

474
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 2: Even if you want to look at Burnemouth, they've been very,

475
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 2: very poor away from home. So but hey, this is

476
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 2: a huge one for the relegation battle too, because lessure

477
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 2: is now down in it and Bournemouth needs this really

478
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 2: bad way to get out of it. So it's actually

479
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: a very very fascinating match.

480
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 3: I would bet the under if Laraty starts. I feel

481
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: the same way, you know, I Varty's cooked. His numbers

482
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 3: have fallen off a lot. And it was a much

483
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 3: more defensive approach. They really didn't do a ton of

484
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: pressing of Villa high the numbers suggest, you know, they

485
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 3: kind of let Villa do a little bit more build

486
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 3: up and then weighted and kind of lower, like they

487
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: were backed up the line of first attack and first

488
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 3: like we're going to win the ball off you. And

489
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 3: it was an interesting approach and it worked defensively. I mean,

490
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 3: they were very good defensively in the match. Conceded one

491
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 3: breakaway on a great through ball to Watkins, but other

492
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 3: than that, like Villa didn't really do much in the match.

493
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 3: And then they give their way the red car and

494
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: it was kind of a soft re read in my view.

495
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 3: But and then you know, holding on for dear life

496
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 3: couldn't quite do it. But yeah, I would bet the

497
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 3: under and nothing here, I think because it's a relegation

498
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 3: six pointer, you know that can go one of two ways.

499
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: Sometimes the market is just way too low on certain

500
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 3: attacks and the overs become cheap. This is not really

501
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 3: the case because Lester is as a team that has

502
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 3: overperformed their attacking numbers all year despite being in the

503
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: relegation battle, and with Vardy they just don't have enough shots.

504
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 1: Let's set up that relegation battle real quick before we

505
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: move on. It's weird seeing Lester. I mean, I know

506
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: we kind of expected, it's just it is this, this

507
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: trio of teams is just weird to see in the bottom.

508
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: Their fifth place, their fifth place two years ago. Yeah,

509
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: they were they were like a point, they were a

510
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: point away from the top four like two years ago. Yeah,

511
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: and now we're talking relegation.

512
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 3: They finished in the top half last season, they finished eighth.

513
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we were all on.

514
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 2: I mean I have a very large not very large,

515
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: but a large finished bottom half of the table.

516
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: Bet on them, so move, that's tough. I don't know

517
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: if they're gonna do it. Southampton on twenty three points

518
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 1: from twenty nine games at the foot, Leicester twenty five

519
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: from twenty nine, born With twenty seven from twenty nine.

520
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: Down there on gold differential, then it's forced and Everdimpo

521
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: on twenty seven points as well from twenty nine games,

522
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 1: west Ham twenty seven from twenty seven, Wolves twenty eight

523
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: points from twenty nine games, Leads twenty nine from twenty

524
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: nine and Crystal Palace my dirty.

525
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 3: Thoughts are up into thirteenth.

526
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, look out. So with that we can set up

527
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: Wolves and Chelsea Wolverhampton three to one at home hosting.

528
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: The Blues might just want to five. The draw is

529
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: plus two fifty. I feel like I've been waiting for

530
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: the spot for a while. I like Chelsea a million

531
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: different ways. Here. You can bet the money line, you

532
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: can bet a team total, you can bet an alternate spread.

533
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: That's probably how I'm gonna do it. I think Chelsea

534
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 1: mnus one and a half at a good number near

535
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: three to one, you can get plus two eighty. I

536
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,400
Speaker 1: think Chelsea minus two and a half at seven plus

537
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 1: seven fifty is fine. This team's gonna start scoring at

538
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: some point, and maybe it'll come. Maybe it'll come in

539
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: the Champions League, but maybe it'll come under Frank Lampard

540
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 1: if he is indeed going to be the interim manager.

541
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,199
Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago, someone on his podcat Yes

542
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: assured me that Todd Bowley, the new owner of Chelsea,

543
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 1: wouldn't be do something so crazy. He's not crazy. He's

544
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 1: not going to fire Grandpotter.

545
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: Would that owner the outside looking in, he looks.

546
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 1: Owner is ever crazy. The guy who spent a half

547
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: billion dollars on transfers.

548
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: I mean that's completely saying to spend two very very

549
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 2: January transfer window to fire your manager. You know what

550
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 2: you said? Do you want a long term plan.

551
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: When someone's behaving that normally, you know, spending half half

552
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: a billiary normal on transfers after coming in UH as

553
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 1: a new owner, you expect him to keep acting normally.

554
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: And that's what I guess he did, because he's he's

555
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 1: been We were told he's not crazy and wouldn't do

556
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: something crazy.

557
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 2: Shout at this club, Michael.

558
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: Uh, I don't even think robot of Brown, which would

559
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: have fired.

560
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 3: Michael. You already missed your victory lap Chance because you

561
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: missed the Sunday show.

562
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 1: I know, well I got I'm not going to miss it.

563
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: So uh Yeah.

564
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: Whoever that was on the podcast who said Todd Bowley

565
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: would never do that is I don't know, doesn't look

566
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: good anyways, Chelsea, I was casting by a million.

567
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: Here because it was stupid. I agree, though I like

568
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: to believe again. I mean, come on, I mean I

569
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 3: bet them every game. If you follow me in the app,

570
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 3: I either bet them or the over. You know, we

571
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 3: had them against Spurs, they lost. We had him against

572
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,239
Speaker 3: Dortmund they won. We had him against Lester they won.

573
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 3: I was starting to feel really good. Uh we had him,

574
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 3: We had the over. I had the over against Everton

575
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 3: beat ahead Everton. Michael had Everton probably should have could

576
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 3: have won that. But I mean they've created over one

577
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 3: and a half expected goals in their last six matches.

578
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 3: This is a team that has found something that works

579
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 3: for them to get a bunch of really good opportunities

580
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: for Harts and Felix to run at defenses and which

581
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: what they're very good at. And goal of Conte is

582
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: so important because it stabilizes them, you know, he along

583
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: with Enzo and Covid chicch like, it's a very effective

584
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 3: midfield ball winning, ball progression, ball carrying. All of them

585
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: have different skills and they are all very functional, and

586
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 3: I think it showed in the dominance against Liverpool. I

587
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: mean that match was one way traffic to start to finish.

588
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 3: Wolves are very overmanned here. Wolves are not good enough,

589
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 3: I think, attack wise to stay in this so at

590
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 3: plus you know you can find plus one oh five.

591
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 3: I love Chelsea here. I also kind of like the

592
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 3: over of course, but I just think the market's so

593
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 3: low on this Chelsea attack and there's no real reason for.

594
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 2: It to be.

595
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 1: You know.

596
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 2: I was, I gotta say some wonderful because I don't

597
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 2: have any else match. But I was reading something and

598
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: I don't know if I totally agree with it, but

599
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 2: somebody is basically saying, like X, she doesn't really take

600
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: account for what Potter was trying to do at Chelsea

601
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: and both at Brighton, where the chances that they would

602
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 2: create would be obviously very very difficult chances for the

603
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 2: personnel that they had. So guys like Haveverts, Neil Mapi

604
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 2: and whoever he had at Brighton to where you know,

605
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: somebody like a Lebatowski or a Holland or whatever it is,

606
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 2: that point four to five chance they convert just at

607
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: as such a better rate than anybody else, and so

608
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: it's very very difficult for guys like Felix and Averts

609
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,239
Speaker 2: under tight space is undertight windows where next G might

610
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: say like, oh, yeah, that was a point four to

611
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: five x G, but we just don't have the strikers,

612
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: the personnel to play the type of system, the crossing

613
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 2: and everything like that. I don't know if I totally

614
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 2: agree with it, but it also kind of makes sense

615
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: for what Chelsea's performance is, right, and it's kind of

616
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: what we've been saying, like it's just basically have Vert.

617
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: It's like he's just on a bad finishing run and

618
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 2: he's maybe just not a number nine an out and

619
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 2: out striker, and that's kind of what they need. So

620
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know if I totally agree

621
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: with it, but it it maybe is a little bit

622
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 2: of an explanation of why Chelsea just continually underperforms.

623
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't. I don't buy that. I mean, like

624
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 3: agree with the keepings.

625
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 2: It's like it kind of makes sense.

626
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I know that I talked about the Ell

627
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 3: pivot guys, but they did a thing where they they

628
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 3: said that they didn't even think Chelsea were better under Pottery.

629
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: You could have said that November and December. But since

630
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 3: January Chelsea have.

631
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: Been very good. They've been better.

632
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 3: Whoever, midwinter market the market feels that way too. I mean,

633
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 3: look at how much the market upgraded Chelsea. Uh, you know,

634
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: to the point where I was not even having that

635
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 3: much value on them anymore because the market was bumping

636
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 3: them faster than I could even in my numbers.

637
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: Uh.

638
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: And yeah, just wait, I'm waiting for the one fifty

639
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 3: five against aston Villa. Who's one of the hottest teams

640
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: in the league.

641
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: Who's going to be Potter's next club? What do you think?

642
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 3: Gotham?

643
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: The United States men's national team?

644
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: You Goverton? No?

645
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: No? Yeah? No's they got the best manager in the world.

646
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 3: Ham is interesting, maybe.

647
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, the West Ham, but he said he's gonna take

648
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: a break though he would like Wester immediately offered him.

649
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 2: That's when you know you've kind of like, I understand

650
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 2: Chelsea doesn't matter, but like when you fire your manager

651
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 2: and like literally the next day a team comes calling

652
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 2: and be like, yes, I want him. That's kind of

653
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,479
Speaker 2: how you know, maybe like oops, maybe we got rid

654
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: of this guy too soon.

655
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 3: Well, we talked about this on Sunday. The market moved

656
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: hard against them in the Champions League, and I disagree.

657
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: With that move, m antony, do you want to talk

658
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: about Spurs?

659
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 3: Not really?

660
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: All right, bj let's talk about Spurs. Their plus one

661
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: fifty five?

662
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 3: Can I take a victory of that?

663
00:31:58,920 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: It's Brighton?

664
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: Why because your team sucks?

665
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: Yeah?

666
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 3: I mean I was mocked on this show.

667
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: Why do they?

668
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 2: How do they suck?

669
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: I was mocked on this show.

670
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: Fourth place in the Premier League. They're in fourth place

671
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 1: in the best team, the best league in the world.

672
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 2: They drew one of the better teams.

673
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: I don't even know what the table looks like half

674
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 3: the season. I was shocked when I found out they

675
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,479
Speaker 3: were in fourth after the game against Everton.

676
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 2: Here's the thing.

677
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 3: I was mocked on this show in the fall, when

678
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 3: when Brighton hosted Spurs. Brighton was a pick and I

679
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: said Brighton should be favored in this match, and I

680
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 3: was mocked by both of you, said the numbers crazy,

681
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 3: no respect for Tottenham. Now it's at Spurs and Brighton

682
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 3: are a pick, and I finally agree that the market

683
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 3: is very high on Brighton, who by actually difference, might

684
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 3: be the third best team in the league.

685
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 2: They are best team in the league. They're gonna the

686
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: top four is going to be Arsenal City, Newcastle, Brighton,

687
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 2: that's going to be the top four.

688
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 3: I would not would have been shocked caught.

689
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 2: Up with Brighton. It sucks, like I really feel, I

690
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 2: texted Anthony. I texted Anthony, I said, I was getting

691
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: really excited about Brighton plus a half because two years

692
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 2: ago they would have been plus a half. Nobody would

693
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: have they market wouldn't have priced them this slow against Tottham.

694
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 2: And then I saw their pick. I was like, the

695
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: number's right. I can't do anything.

696
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,959
Speaker 3: I still have Brighton fifth, but I think I might

697
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: be wrong.

698
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: They might be the third best team in the Premier League. Honestly,

699
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: I mean they I mean they just keep putting up

700
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 2: a zillion expected goals every single game, like it's just

701
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 2: every time they're so good Man, Oh my gosh. And

702
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: Evan Ferguson is awesome by the way. Yeah, they finally

703
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 2: found a great striker that can you know, capitalize a

704
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 2: lot of these two.

705
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 1: Somebody feel neo Mopace.

706
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: There's yeah.

707
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 3: I mean, they're just so much better team than Tottenham.

708
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 3: So like, I wouldn't blame anybody who bet them.

709
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: What I will say now this is this is kind

710
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: of a bad matchup for Brighton given what Tottenham likes

711
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 2: to do and how aggressive Brighton is and and committing

712
00:33:58,600 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: men forward.

713
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 3: And I don't know, but are we good at that anymore?

714
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: I don't think we're that No, Well you're in I

715
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: mean you're in fourth place. Like I mean again, they

716
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 2: did nothing against Everton on Monday sides penalty. So how

717
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: many teams in the prem are better than Spurs? I

718
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 2: would say.

719
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 3: I have seven better seven?

720
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:19,959
Speaker 2: Who I was going to say, like five?

721
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 3: The only team it's not better than them, City, Arsenal, Liverpool.

722
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 3: Yeah they are Liverpool, Brighton, Chelsea and United all better.

723
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: Than Timeham, Arsenal, City, Newcastle, Brighton, Brentford.

724
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 3: I don't think they're better than Spurs, but they're not

725
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 3: that far behind. I mean, I happily bet Brentford pustle

726
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: half a time.

727
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, But like I said, do they still have another

728
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 2: match against Brentford on the schedule or they've played them twice?

729
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 2: We still have one more? Oh boy, I'm excited for

730
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 2: that one.

731
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have nothing else here though, I don't know that. Yeah,

732
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 3: and they end up getting maybe over. But but just

733
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 3: because Brighton's you know, matches under deserve be are just

734
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 3: insanely high events. But the Bryce On that it's getting

735
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 3: all out of hand as well. So I think the

736
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 3: market's just caught up with how good Seagulls are right

737
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: firs and the season hosting Brentford going to Leeds that

738
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 3: would be two fades.

739
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 1: Fifteen seconds and I truly, truly, truly mean, and I

740
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 1: will cut you off after fifteen seconds because we've talked

741
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 1: a lot about Brighton. What number are they going to

742
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 1: open to win the Premier League get next season? Anthony?

743
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 1: You can go first.

744
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 3: Thirty forty to one?

745
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 2: Will they'll be eighty to one? I think? Yeah, when

746
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 2: Newcastle was coming into this season, I.

747
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: Think they're going to be around the Newcastle range is

748
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: what I was gonna say, like eighty to one hundred.

749
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 1: I think I would bet it ten to one for

750
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: Top four, who knows what happens with the transfer market, but.

751
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: Likes exactly deserve.

752
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: They're close to triple digits with the same manager and

753
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: like a team that hasn't been ravaged by other teams.

754
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 1: Southampton next, they're twelve to one, hosting City, who trail

755
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: Arsenal by eight points minus four fifty. The draw is

756
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: plus five twenty five. Nothing for me from a betting

757
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: standpoint at all. I find this game to be wholly uninteresting.

758
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: I kind of like Southampton plus one and a half

759
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: at plus one ten. I mean, this is obviously a

760
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: sandwich spot here for City. They're going to play byron

761
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 2: in the Champions League. Obviously they still needed to fight

762
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: for the Premier League title. But I only have City

763
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: at minus two seventeen, and obviously they've been running incredibly

764
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 2: hot offensively over their last three games. But I mean, listen,

765
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 2: Southampton beat them in the EFL Cup at home to nothing,

766
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 2: and City didn't really play that much of a reverse

767
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 2: reserve type lineup, So there's a chance here where Southampton

768
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 2: can come out play a low block and listen, they've

769
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 2: given City some problems, like if you know, if you

770
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 2: got to talk about bogie teams, like they've kind of

771
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 2: been a bogie team for City over the years. Last

772
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 2: season they drew City twice and if you look at

773
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 2: the expected goals, like City didn't completely blow them out.

774
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: Obviously City killed them earlier season four nothing and it

775
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 2: was complete dismantling. But I mean the Southampton team, they

776
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 2: got to show some life at some point or else

777
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 2: they're getting really game. They probably are gonna ge really,

778
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:20,800
Speaker 2: they're probably gona fish dead last the Premier League. But

779
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 2: I am projicting some value on them, Like I only

780
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: project them at seven to one as a seven to

781
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: one underdog here, so I might this kind of feels

782
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 2: like maybe that that City Crystal Palace match from a

783
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:34,919
Speaker 2: few weeks ago where City was about to go playing

784
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 2: in the Champions League and they won that match one nothing.

785
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: It kind of slept through it. I think we might

786
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 2: have a similar match here. You know, Southampton's obvio was

787
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 2: gonna sit in there four four two. They're gonna stay

788
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: very compact, defend their penalty area and maybe they get

789
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 2: a few set peace opportunities to get the ball in

790
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 2: the back of the net. But at some point this

791
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 2: defense has to aggress positively. So, uh, Southampton plus one

792
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 2: and a half at plus one ten I think has

793
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 2: some value.

794
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if city is flat, it meant fess

795
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 3: itself in them defensively, falling asleep and conceding. So I

796
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 3: could you could sell me on a Saints team total,

797
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 3: but I will not be betting city against cities attack.

798
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 3: I have lost a good amount of money in the

799
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: last month doing that and I'm gonna put a pause

800
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: on it for this one. And that's a good time.

801
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 3: There's no better time to add more work to your

802
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 3: city to win the league positions.

803
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 2: Oh shut up.

804
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:25,399
Speaker 1: Leeds United is where we will wrap up the Premier

805
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 1: League for this show. Leads plus one ten hosting Crystal Palace,

806
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 1: Roy Hodgson, the Roy Hodgson Revolution. You know we talk

807
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 1: about these these managers like desserve Bee and Marco Silva,

808
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 1: these progressive managers, and who's more progressive than Roy Hodgson.

809
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: He leads Crystal Palace to Ellen Road.

810
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 2: Here.

811
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 1: I want another one that not too interested in I

812
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 1: think it would be a Palace as an underdog or nothing.

813
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 1: They looked really good, I thought, and they're like, what

814
00:38:58,440 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 1: does he do it?

815
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 2: He's pumped luster. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, pump like hotchin. I mean,

816
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 2: Hodgin might have a future in this he might have

817
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 2: a future in this league, Michael be on in this season, right,

818
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 2: I mean, like would they out shoot less year like

819
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 2: twenty seven to three or something like that, Like they

820
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 2: were completely I mean they have like a seventy five

821
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 2: percent field tilt. They haven't done that to any team

822
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: in the Premier leage under Viera, under in his tenure.

823
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 2: Like I don't know what Hodgson did. I thought I

824
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 2: was gonna be four four two, like stay compact against

825
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 2: Lester No, no, no, no four three three. Let's get

826
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 2: the mom moving forward. Let's press them high, and let's

827
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: cause some problems and let's tilt the field on the

828
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: control possession like again, you know, leads to what I'll

829
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: say about this is like they've been much much more

830
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 2: passive under Hobby Garcia, Like they've they're not pressing as

831
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 2: high as they they have been in the past. They've

832
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 2: been staying a lot more compact. So it's led to

833
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 2: you know, some lower events, tight matches. Obviously the matchkins

834
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 2: Arsenal and they conceded four. But you know, women without

835
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 2: Tyler Adams. I mean leads is they're not completely cooked

836
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 2: or finished because like McKenny and Rocha are fine, but

837
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 2: you know, Adams is so so important for what they

838
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: want to do in the middle of the pitch. So

839
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 2: I need to see another Roy Hodgson match, though, Michael,

840
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't know if I believe what happened

841
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 2: against Leicester. Maybe my eyes were deceiving me. Let's see

842
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 2: it one more time before we get on the palace train.

843
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 1: Boond this league of time, Anthony, you can kick us

844
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: off here.

845
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Stutgart on the money line at

846
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 3: plus one thirty. I said last week that I might

847
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 3: bet Stutgart every match for the rest of the season.

848
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 3: So far I'm owned one on those bets. After they

849
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 3: got beat and had two goals right off in the

850
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 3: first half and then lost three. Note Yon on the road.

851
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 3: They go on the road again to Bochum. They are Look,

852
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 3: my numbers project this to be about plus one ten,

853
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 3: so plus one twenty five is a pretty small edge

854
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 3: for me. But I think Stuttgart eventually is just going

855
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:57,359
Speaker 3: to positive aggress here. And now I get the worst

856
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 3: team in the league in Bochum. I know they've been

857
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 3: pretty good at home, pretty have to beat but eventually

858
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 3: bounces need to start going this team's way, which is

859
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 3: why I want them on the money line. I'm not

860
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 3: gonna lay huge juice on them, John Obett, I'm just

861
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 3: gonna take the money line because this team is not

862
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 3: getting relegated. They're going to start turning the corner. A

863
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 3: new manager coming in trying to fix what's been a

864
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,359
Speaker 3: very broken team for the last year.

865
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 1: I would about you, Bjay.

866
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 2: I like clone JOHNO Bett at minus one thirty on

867
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 2: the road against Augsburg, as the anthet likes to call Fraudsburg,

868
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 2: and they're doing it again. They have the worst non

869
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 2: penalty expected gold differential in the Bundesliga, but they are

870
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 2: sitting in twelfth place. Somehow they're going to survive yet again.

871
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: They are seventeenth to non penalty expected goals four seventeenth

872
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:39,480
Speaker 2: to non penalty expecta goles against. It is again outside

873
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,720
Speaker 2: of Bochum because Bocans conceded a billion penalties. They aren't

874
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 2: the worst team in the Bundesliga, and Cologne is a

875
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 2: team very similarly that to Stuttgart, where they're sitting in

876
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 2: the middle of the table, but they are actually a

877
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: top half of the table, maybe top seven type Bundesliga

878
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 2: type team. I mean their third and big scoring chances. Defensively,

879
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 2: they've conceded the fourth fewest big scoring chances. And the

880
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 2: big thing in this matchup is one is a very

881
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 2: very good set piece team. Second and next cheaper set piece.

882
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: Augsburg one of the worst defenses in defending set pieces.

883
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 2: In the flip side of that as well is Augsburg

884
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 2: is very very there. You know, there are four four two,

885
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 2: very They're one of the more compact teams in the Bundesliga,

886
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 2: so they're obviously very relyant on set piece as well.

887
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 2: Colone's the top five team at defending set pieces. So

888
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 2: really really good match up here for Coloonne. You know,

889
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 2: I project them around an even money favorite of the

890
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 2: road here. So uh, just gonna fade one of the

891
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 2: worst teams in the Bundesliga.

892
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 3: You know, we're you know, we're buying low here because

893
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 3: BJ's bet Con has no wins in their last six. Yeah,

894
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 3: my team Stutgart has one win in their last eight

895
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 3: and it came against Cool So yeah, I mean, just

896
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 3: classic bilows here in a German league that has been

897
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 3: quite bonkers with who's actually in the relegation zone. Two

898
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 3: pretty good teams relatively could go down this year.

899
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: What about La Liga? Anything for you here?

900
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 2: BJ? Yeah? I like Almeria and Valencia over two and

901
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 2: a half goals at plus one point fifteen. I don't

902
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 2: really think any match involving al Maria should be setting

903
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 2: up plus money or over two and a half. Their

904
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 2: matches have been thrilling in Spade. They're just coming off

905
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:13,720
Speaker 2: a two two draw with Celtevego. Their matches are averaging

906
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: two point nine to three expected goals per ninety minutes,

907
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 2: and that's because they have one of the worst defenses

908
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 2: in Spain, allowing over one point seven expected goals. Last

909
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:25,239
Speaker 2: seven matches, they've allowed fifteen point four expected goals. They're

910
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:28,240
Speaker 2: allowing the most second most big scoring chances in Spain,

911
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: and they're allowing the most crosses in Spain, which is

912
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 2: really important against Valencia, who is very very good at

913
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 2: attacking wide areas, completing the second most crosses of anybody

914
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 2: in La Liga. And Valencia is an underforming offense. They're

915
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 2: due for positive regression thirty goals off of thirty five

916
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 2: point three expected and in their last nine matches, they've

917
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: scored four goals off eleven and a half expected so

918
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: in Almeria. Though they are a dangerous counter attacking team,

919
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: they're very you know, they set up very very direct.

920
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 2: They are top ten in expected goals, their top five

921
00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 2: and final third to penalty box conversion rates, so they

922
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 2: are pretty deadly going forward. So over two and a

923
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,359
Speaker 2: half plus one fifteen, I protect about two point seven

924
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 2: goals for this match, So I like the value on

925
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:09,359
Speaker 2: plus money in over two and a half.

926
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: Anthony, anything for you and Spein.

927
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Barcia Gerona both teams to score. Look,

928
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,439
Speaker 3: every time Girona has gone up in class like they're

929
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 3: newly promoted team.

930
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 2: To the league.

931
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 3: Anytime they've gone up, they've actually been very competitive offensively,

932
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:28,280
Speaker 3: you know, produced at least one expected goal against Edledico,

933
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 3: against Rialso Si Dad, against Real Madrid, against the very

934
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 3: same Barcelona team that they lost one nil two against

935
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 3: Ryo by Akano, like they against Billboo twice. Like they

936
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 3: have been a team that has caused problems and attack

937
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 3: for these top sides. Barsha's only conceded nine goals in

938
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 3: the league this year. Terstig And has been unbelievable, but

939
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 3: I think the four goals they conceded to Real Madrid

940
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 3: today are a harbinger of things to come for this defense,

941
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 3: which is that they have run like gods. No team

942
00:44:56,239 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 3: has allowed more posts than bar Barcelona this year. Like

943
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 3: I said, with your Stagan shot stopping, it's been incredible

944
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 3: in La Liga. For this defense, just so overvalued in

945
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,959
Speaker 3: the market. I like both teams to score.

946
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 1: Italy BJ Yeah.

947
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Friday, Salernitana and Inter over three goals

948
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 2: at plus one oh five. Salernyitana's defense is so bad,

949
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 2: like just so so bad, one point eight expect goals

950
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 2: allowed per ninety minutes, and they're really bad against good

951
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 2: competition against the big seven in Italy, which is Roma, Napoli, Uventus,

952
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: Inter Ac Milan, Atalanta and Lazio. There they've allowed twenty

953
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 2: two point three expected goals in ten matches, so you

954
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 2: can all do the math out there what that is

955
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: per match. They're the worst pressing team in Italy. They're

956
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 2: second to last and box and final third entries allowed.

957
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 2: Just a really really bad defense. And even though Inter

958
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 2: has been going through this rough patch in Syria, they're

959
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 2: still one of the best offense in Italy. I mean

960
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: their second to non penalty expected goals and they're way overdue.

961
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 2: To score one goal in their last three Seria matches

962
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 2: off of seven point eight expected that is insane under performance.

963
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,760
Speaker 2: I know they have a huge Champions League match against

964
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 2: Benefica coming up this week, but they're in a massive

965
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,240
Speaker 2: battle to say inside the top four and their manager

966
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: Ignazi is still trying to save his job, so this

967
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 2: match is gonna be very very important for them. Salernitana,

968
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys know this, but they

969
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 2: have one of my guys who have been cursing his

970
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,760
Speaker 2: name for for quite a long time in this podcast

971
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 2: right now, Bulada, formerly of stodd Reims and via real legend. Yeah,

972
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 2: he scored ten goals for salary Tana this season. Has

973
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 2: cost me quite a bit of money. They have, so

974
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 2: they have some attacking talent, you know Pia tech Fu

975
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: who recently played at a c mLAN. He's got over

976
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 2: a point four actually for nine even scoring rates, so

977
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 2: there's some there's some talent on this Salarnyitana offense and

978
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 2: Inter's defense is gonna be without screener, so I think

979
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: it's a decent spot here to back and over. I

980
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be really high event.

981
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 3: Tune in for Lucaco to his three sitters and to

982
00:46:59,000 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 3: hit the.

983
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,800
Speaker 2: Back of then at three times from out the drop box.

984
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 1: To the anything in Syria. A.

985
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 2: Yes.

986
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 3: You know, it's funny. When you think of Roma and

987
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 3: you think of Terino, you probably think of two teams

988
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 3: under under under teams under teams, and so when they

989
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 3: play each other, everybody naturally thinks, oh, yeah, I'm gonna

990
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 3: bet the under. Well, the market isn't that stupid too,

991
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 3: and the total is two and that is too low.

992
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 3: Like I like poth teams to score, and I like

993
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: the over, I'm gonna split my bet on those two.

994
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 3: Like again, it's basically just like intuitive to the sense

995
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 3: of like, yes, the market is aware that Roman and

996
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 3: to Reno play low event matches and they overcorrect. In

997
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 3: this case, it's two attacks that have vastly underperformed XG

998
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 3: this year and could have more goals than they actually have.

999
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 3: And Roma especially is not a bad attacking team. Once

1000
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 3: they go up a goal, yes they tend to shut

1001
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 3: it down, but if they fall behind, if they're trying

1002
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 3: to hold the lead to Reno is capable of getting

1003
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 3: back into games, and they've played some pretty back and

1004
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,439
Speaker 3: forth crazy matches this year. Just you know, just because

1005
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,760
Speaker 3: you know Tarino to be a staunch defensive team doesn't

1006
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 3: mean they haven't gone back and forth in the Milan

1007
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 3: or even Juventus a couple of weeks ago. And so

1008
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 3: I like the over here and both teams to score.

1009
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 3: It's a contrarian play, for sure, it could look stupid

1010
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 3: if it ends no nil, but total is too damn low.

1011
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: BJ, you're the only one taking a dip in league.

1012
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 3: Oh this week, what Martin is hanging around?

1013
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 2: No, I'm gonna GoJ and I'm gonna go with the

1014
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 2: team that only the only team that actually has a

1015
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 2: chance of overtaking PSG, and that's Lens against Strasbourg. I

1016
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 2: like both teams to score it, even money Strasbourg. I

1017
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 2: mean electric offense, we all know that about them. Should

1018
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 2: be in the top three at this point instead of

1019
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 2: in the relegation battle. I mean they've created ten point

1020
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 2: five expected goals in their last six matches, coming off

1021
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 2: thrilling for to three loss to Monaco. The Lens defense

1022
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 2: is running credibly hot this season, like ridiculously well twenty

1023
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 2: goals allowed off a thirty one point five expected In

1024
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 2: their last four matches, they've allowed four to point three

1025
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 2: expected goals and only conceded once. It's a mixture of

1026
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: two things. Nodding in forced legend, Bryce was in net

1027
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 2: and he's running incredibly hot plus six post Shatt actually

1028
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 2: plus minus. And they've allowed the fourth most shots in

1029
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 2: France inside the six yard box twenty eight, but their

1030
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 2: opponents only scored eight of them, so they're just running

1031
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 2: ridiculously hot on those two fronts. Strasburg defensively is a disaster.

1032
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,279
Speaker 2: We all know that. I mean they're one point eight

1033
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 2: expectables allowed for ninety the last time they face Lens,

1034
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 2: Lens created over one point eight expected goals. Strasburg's gonna

1035
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:26,840
Speaker 2: bebout to their main defenders. Like this is just no

1036
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 2: ideal scenario for them defensively, But they do present offensive problems.

1037
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 2: The problem the offensive things they can do to present

1038
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:40,399
Speaker 2: Lens some problems for defenses run ridiculously well. So both

1039
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:43,839
Speaker 2: teams to score it even money. Also, I don't want

1040
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 2: to do it, but PSG's getting a little cheap against Nice.

1041
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 2: I'll just say that over the weekend, I don't. But

1042
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 2: I don't know where their heads are at right now,

1043
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: or if they even really care at this point. But

1044
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 2: I will say that I am projecting some value on PSG,

1045
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 2: but I need to wait and see what the market

1046
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 2: does a little bit, because minus one fifteen is a

1047
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 2: it's a tad love for me.

1048
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 3: I bet lens next weekend plus a half against PSG.

1049
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 3: Look ahead, I think PSG will drop points in both matches.

1050
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 2: M does Gallot does the Galatire leave by that point?

1051
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: And then is it Steven Gerrard Wright's coming in? That

1052
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:22,799
Speaker 2: was the report of the Scottish son.

1053
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 3: He will collapse the team to cash my Marseille future.

1054
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, he might be the next play the long game.

1055
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:31,839
Speaker 2: He might be the next manager. I'm just gonna say.

1056
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 3: That was the whole point. You bet Villa do well,

1057
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 3: wait for them to fire Gerrard. They do it, and

1058
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 3: then you fade PSG knowing they're going to go for

1059
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 3: Gerrard and then it works out in the end.

1060
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 1: Long cons time for our underdog parlay. We can go,

1061
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: we can go to you first year BJ, I.

1062
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 2: Mean, what's been the most successful thing for me in

1063
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 2: this these underdog parlays over this entire season. Who is

1064
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 2: fading Seville just weak in out. So let's do it

1065
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 2: again on Friday. Celtav Go plus two to fifty on

1066
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: the road at Sevilla. I mean, Selta Vego has been

1067
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 2: hot offensively, thirteen point three expected goals in their last

1068
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 2: eight matches. They're a top half of the La Liga

1069
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 2: team by every metric that you look at, and the

1070
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 2: market just continues to price Seville like they're still the

1071
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 2: six or seventh best team in Laaligo, when they're just

1072
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 2: still closer to the relegation zone than they are to

1073
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 2: the top four. I mean, this is still a bottom

1074
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 2: five defense. I don't really think they're back after scoring

1075
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 2: two goals and beating Cadiz on the road last weekend.

1076
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 2: So and they're also more focused on the Europa League.

1077
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 2: They got Manchester United coming up on Thursday, so that

1078
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 2: match is way way more important to them than this

1079
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 2: little dinky match on Friday against Celtaego, which you know

1080
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 2: is not going to make any difference of how they

1081
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 2: finish in La Legos. So Saltavego plus two fifty For.

1082
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:44,279
Speaker 1: Me, my underdog is Everden. They're plus six fifty at

1083
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:48,359
Speaker 1: the Theater of dreams Old Trafford three three and three

1084
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:53,320
Speaker 1: under Seawan Ditsch minus one point six expected goal differential,

1085
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 1: a vast improvement, only getting better. We haven't seen the

1086
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:59,439
Speaker 1: We have not seen the top yet. Ante. We haven't

1087
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 1: seen the top of this team. They're just gonna keep

1088
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 1: climbing and they just set up well they have. They

1089
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: profile really well as an underdog right now, and good

1090
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 1: at set pieces, good defending set pieces. We'll make life

1091
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 1: hell on teams in the midfield. That's a big deal.

1092
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 1: When Casimiro's out numbers just too good.

1093
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 3: I'm sorry to think. The worst thing we did as

1094
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 3: a podcast was hit that big Everagon ticket a couple

1095
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 3: of weeks ago when they played Arsenal, because now Michael

1096
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 3: is just gonna say every single week, well Everton is

1097
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 3: six to one again, and yeah.

1098
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you. They're gonna keep They're gonna they like

1099
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 1: I said, they'll do one more. They've got one or.

1100
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 3: Two more in net net Like if you hit the

1101
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 3: plus seven to fifty with as an Arsenal, you know

1102
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 3: you're sitting up and then you know you can lose

1103
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 3: like five in a row and then eventually they'll win

1104
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 3: again and then boom, yep, genius.

1105
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 2: All right.

1106
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 3: Look, Rio Vacano is at home in a big time

1107
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 3: matchup with Atletico Madrid. By Kano is plus three point fifty.

1108
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 3: Madrid has very quietly flown under the radar. I don't

1109
00:52:56,800 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 3: think we really talked about them enough in this spot.

1110
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 3: We spend so much time talking about the other Madrid

1111
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 3: that we don't really talk about the fact that a

1112
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 3: Luti's been on an impressive winning run. They won four

1113
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 3: straight in the league. I think now, Semon, Anthony, we

1114
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 3: know on the road and I'm going to take Vacano

1115
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:15,720
Speaker 3: plus three fifty. They do a very good job pressing,

1116
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 3: enforcing high turnovers. Their defensive press is very effective. I

1117
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 3: think they can shut down at Lati and turn this

1118
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 3: game into pretty much a coin flip.

1119
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 1: One hundred and seventeen to one. We're back.

1120
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 2: That's better, much much. That's why we went on three

1121
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 2: last week. It wasn't high enough.

1122
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:30,800
Speaker 1: Better. All right, on to our favorite bets in the

1123
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 1: Premier League for this weekend, Anthony, you and I are

1124
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 1: in the same match, so we can go first. I'll

1125
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,879
Speaker 1: set it up with Chelsea minus one and a half

1126
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 1: plus two eighty taking on Wolverhampton I've been waiting for

1127
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,280
Speaker 1: the spot for a long time. Like Chelsea's, the goals

1128
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: at one point are just going to pile in over

1129
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 1: two expected goals against Liverpool zero goals scored at some point,

1130
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 1: it's just going to happen. And who better than Wolverhampton

1131
00:53:56,560 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 1: for it to happen to.

1132
00:53:59,160 --> 00:53:59,919
Speaker 2: This is a good spot.

1133
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 1: I'm very excited and I'm excited to have Anthony with

1134
00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 1: me in some fashion.

1135
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a little bit concerned with the Champions League

1136
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 3: look ahead, but Chelsea is clearly undervalued here at plus

1137
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 3: one oh five. I don't think Wolves had the attacking

1138
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 3: firepower to keep up with Chelsea. Returning in Goloconte is

1139
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,359
Speaker 3: so massive for their transition defense, so massive for their

1140
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 3: ability to control matches in the middle of the park.

1141
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 3: And like you said, they've been doing a really good

1142
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:29,760
Speaker 3: job of getting felix and have its good chances running

1143
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,719
Speaker 3: at defense is taking advantage there. I think they're undervalued

1144
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 3: at plus one oh five and they're my best bet

1145
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 3: this weekend.

1146
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:36,839
Speaker 1: All right, BJ take us.

1147
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 2: Home west Ham. John o'bat minus one ten at the

1148
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:43,359
Speaker 2: Craven College against Fulham. This is just a classic by

1149
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 2: low Sell. High west Ham just lost five to one

1150
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,399
Speaker 2: to Newcastle at home. Now they're going on the road

1151
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: to Fulham, who is going to be without Alexander Mitrovich

1152
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 2: for eight matches now. He is the most important player

1153
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 2: to his team in the Premier League. Without Mitrovich in

1154
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 2: the lineup that we've had seven matches a sample size

1155
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 2: that at Fulham is only averaging point eight to one

1156
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 2: expected goals per match. With Mitrovich in lineup, they're averaging

1157
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 2: one point three seven and he means everything to what

1158
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 2: they want to do in their attack. They want to

1159
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 2: gets the ball wide and they want to swing in

1160
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:13,399
Speaker 2: a ton of cross I mean they complete the second

1161
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 2: most crosses in the Premier League. Well, west Ham is

1162
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:17,719
Speaker 2: the top five team at defending crosses, and the flip

1163
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:19,879
Speaker 2: side is west Ham is also very good at getting

1164
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 2: the ball and wide areas and crossing the ball in.

1165
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 2: They're also top five in the Pamillion offensively in cross

1166
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 2: as well. Full Home's in the bottom five at defending crosses.

1167
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 2: And also this is a Fulham defense that continues. They

1168
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 2: ran very very hot before the World Cup break. They

1169
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 2: just conceal close to three expected goals against Bournemouth. The

1170
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:37,800
Speaker 2: defense is starting to fall off now you don't have

1171
00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 2: your best attacker. This is where the Fulham regression hits,

1172
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:42,880
Speaker 2: and it hits in a big way. So this is

1173
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:44,839
Speaker 2: a really really good spot here for west Ham, who

1174
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 2: by expected goals has been a half goal better than Fulham.

1175
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 2: So even if you're counting for home field advantage, even

1176
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:52,320
Speaker 2: not in taking into the count the fact that Mitrovic

1177
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 2: is out, you'd still only have west Ham. You still

1178
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:57,200
Speaker 2: have west Ham around, you know, minus point two five

1179
00:55:57,640 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 2: on the road, so I can't even get them to

1180
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 2: a peck them there. So I think this is great

1181
00:56:01,040 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 2: value here on west Ham on the road. John A

1182
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 2: Betta minus one ten and.

1183
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 3: As a ring endorsement of that pick, somebody, how many

1184
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 3: who follows me the app just DM me ten minutes

1185
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 3: ago and said, saw you post west Ham on your

1186
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 3: action for Saturday? As a west Ham fan, I'm dying

1187
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 3: to know why. Well, when everybody's out, it's usually a

1188
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 3: good time to get back in.

1189
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:22,320
Speaker 1: Go Hammers, all right. For Anthony D Bundle Cunningham.

1190
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 3: Not ned Shelley though, screw him.

1191
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 1: Oh I'm Michael Ela wow so and thank you to

1192
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: our sponsor's bet three six'. Five we will see you

1193
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 1: Again monday Morning Champions league with our Friend. Eric when

1194
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 1: all does, Well bett of luck with all your.

1195
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:55,040
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