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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 1: They're running a game so smoothe so sweet tendred.

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Speaker 3: Sixteen, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 3: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 3: shut with.

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Speaker 1: That shot with mine? Good buddy, And that's why you see.

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Speaker 3: Your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount on the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 3: God sh shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: I'm a all. It's left to one the wide eyed

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Speaker 2: drill confused, How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Yogo benito, Ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to Wondergol,

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Speaker 1: the soccer betting podcast from the Action netwhere I'm your

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Speaker 1: host Michael Liebaugh, and joining me today are Mike colleagues

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Speaker 1: Anthony Dubundo and BJ Cunningham. And gentlemen. It is a

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Speaker 1: great time of year on the sporty calendar. Conference championships

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Speaker 1: are starting in college football. The Ashes Cricket's most prestigious

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Speaker 1: and dramatic series featuring Australia and England starts in a

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Speaker 1: week and most importantly, we have some midweek fixtures. Finally,

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League to talk about, and we'll get

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Speaker 1: to all ten of those, plus we'll touch on La Liga,

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Speaker 1: Siria A League, Oh and give out our favorite underdogs

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Speaker 1: and best bets by the end of the show. But

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Speaker 1: we will start things off at Old Trafford where Manchester

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Speaker 1: United are hosting Arsenal on Thursday at three fifteen pm.

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Speaker 1: United even money favorites right now plus one hundred, Arsenal

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Speaker 1: plus two eighty five, the draw plus two sixty. The

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Speaker 1: Michael Carrick era is off and running. They held Chelsea

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Speaker 1: to a one to one draw on Sunday in a

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Speaker 1: game they were very lucky to do that. They were

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Speaker 1: out chanced by Chelsea by a wide margin. The defensive

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Speaker 1: struggles are still there for United, but I think that

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Speaker 1: people will probably see the they only allowed one goal

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Speaker 1: and they held via reality in a good performance. In

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Speaker 1: a good defensive performance, I should say against vi Area,

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Speaker 1: people will we'll bet into that. They'll probably bet into

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Speaker 1: the Carrick Revolution. They'll bet into maybe this defense has

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Speaker 1: figured things out, but if you look under the surface,

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Speaker 1: they really haven't. So BJ do you think that there's

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Speaker 1: value going against United? Going with United? Maybe playing the

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Speaker 1: total How are you playing this week's headliner.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's value in playing the total, probably

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Speaker 2: not either side in this one. I have Manchester United

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Speaker 2: projected around even money, which is where they're sitting, so

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Speaker 2: I think it's fairly priced. But I do like over

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Speaker 2: three goals at plus one twenty five. So United have

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Speaker 2: a new intern manager, Ralph Rangnick, who basically has managed

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Speaker 2: all throughout Germany and his career, and he's pretty much

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Speaker 2: the mentor to guys like You're in Cloud, Thomas Touchel,

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Speaker 2: Elian Nigels, miant So, and he basically created the high pressing,

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Speaker 2: heavy metal style football that we kind of see today

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Speaker 2: with Liverpool. So it'll be interesting to see, you know,

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Speaker 2: once he takes the reins how quickly he'll be able

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Speaker 2: to transform Manchester United into maybe his style of play.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to take some time.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: Manchester United this season's thirteenth and passed per defensive action

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Speaker 2: fifteenth and pressure success rate and have the second fewest

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Speaker 2: pressures in the Premier League and their defensive problems are

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Speaker 2: still there. They got, like you said, they got very

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Speaker 2: very lucky against Chelsea. They basically lucked out on our

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Speaker 2: Georgino mistake to score and then gave up around three

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Speaker 2: expected goals too Chelsea. They still have those injuries on defense,

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Speaker 2: Vanes out, Shaws out, pog Was out, so Arsenal should

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Speaker 2: be able to create a lot of chances going forward.

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Speaker 2: The problem is that Arsenal in this match defensively has

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Speaker 2: really really struggled when they have to face a decent offense.

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Speaker 2: They so far of the season they allowed three point

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Speaker 2: one seven expected goals to Chelsea, four point two to

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Speaker 2: two Demand City, two point one to Leicester, and three

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Speaker 2: point five to Liverpool. So for MANYU who's sixth and

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals and shots per ninety, they should

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Speaker 2: be able to create some chances against his Arsenal defense.

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Speaker 2: So I have three point zero six goals projected for

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Speaker 2: this one, so I think there's some value on over

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Speaker 2: three goals at plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Arsenal's track record against the stronger competition is what's

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Speaker 1: kind of keeping me off their price. I think if

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Speaker 1: it couldntinues to go up, I'll be interested. But I

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Speaker 1: do like the over But like I said, they were

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Speaker 1: outscored eleven mil against City, Chelsea and Liverpool, and I

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Speaker 1: know United is not near those teams, but still a

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Speaker 1: touch above the competition that Arsenal has been defeating. And

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Speaker 1: they're clearly, like Anthony was saying last episode, this is

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Speaker 1: a mid table club. We should treat them as such.

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Speaker 1: So I'll wait for a bigger number if I could

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Speaker 1: get one on Arsenal. But yeah, I do like the

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Speaker 1: over at three, Anthony, what about you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna have some disagreement.

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Speaker 4: I'm finally playing one of these big matches. I feel

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Speaker 4: like I've been sitting out the Marquee Match of the

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Speaker 4: week almost every week recently, not anymore. First half under

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Speaker 4: one goal plus one ten. Surprise to see this at

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Speaker 4: plus money. I think United's gonna come out with a

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Speaker 4: very similar approach to this match against Chelsea, in the

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Speaker 4: sense they're going to sit off, try to contest the

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Speaker 4: middle of the park and force Arsenal to break them down,

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Speaker 4: even though they are the home side. I also don't

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Speaker 4: really still trust this Arsenal attack, which had a good

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Speaker 4: performance against Newcastle, but what we've seen from Newcastle has

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Speaker 4: been they're probably the worst defense in the PREM. Now

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Speaker 4: with Norwich and upgrading their manager situation, they're the worst

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Speaker 4: defense in the PREM. So I'm not reading too much

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Speaker 4: into Arsenal's really good performance there.

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Speaker 3: There are other.

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Speaker 4: Issues that have come against good defensive sides still exist,

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Speaker 4: and while I'm not calling United a good defensive side

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Speaker 4: by any stretch, throwing three center midfielders in there not

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Speaker 4: starting Ronaldo, if they do that again, I think it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be very hard for Arsenal to break them down

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Speaker 4: and create high quality chances, and the same thing for

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Speaker 4: Manchester United to going the other way. Arsenal had their

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Speaker 4: issues against teams who have very complex possession structures who

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Speaker 4: are able to keep the ball and prevent Arsenal from

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Speaker 4: winning it off of them. We saw that with Liverpool,

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Speaker 4: Chelsea and City. I'm not sure United is at that

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Speaker 4: point right now, and I don't think they're gonna be

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Speaker 4: able to boss this match and keep Arsenal off the ball.

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Speaker 4: Ben White and Gabrielle when they've started, have been a

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Speaker 4: pretty solid defensive pairing. My questions about Arsenal are not

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Speaker 4: as much defensive as they are in attack, and so

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna think this is gonna be a slow start

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Speaker 4: before it opens up, and I'm going under one goal

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Speaker 4: in the first half at plus one ten. I think

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Speaker 4: it very well could push there's a very high chance

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Speaker 4: of that, but I think more likely to see zero

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Speaker 4: than two here and then that's why I'm surprised to

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Speaker 4: see a plus money's number next to the.

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Speaker 1: One from a top four to six pointer to a

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Speaker 1: relegation six pointer. Newcastle minus one to fifteen home favorites

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Speaker 1: against Norich City, who are plus three ten on the

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Speaker 1: money line to draw us plus two seventy. This is

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Speaker 1: a two thirty pm kickoff on Tuesday. Before every show

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Speaker 1: we pick out the marketing matchup, which is the one

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Speaker 1: we just discussed. I really do think that there was

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Speaker 1: there is an argument to be made that Norwich versus

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Speaker 1: Newcastle from a betting perspective is the marketing matchup this

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Speaker 1: week because I can't look away from the price on

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Speaker 1: Nororich City right now plus three ten against Newcastle, who

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Speaker 1: I think are the worst team in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: I know they're at home, but this team is a mess,

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Speaker 1: just an absolute mess. Defensively, they're allowing one point sixty

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Speaker 1: seven expectacles per match in their last six. Yes, the

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Speaker 1: competition was tough. Spurs, Palace, Chelsea, brightenholve Albion, Brentford and Arsenal,

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Speaker 1: but still get a stop. That's what this team needs

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Speaker 1: to do and they haven't been able to do it.

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Speaker 1: It's clear what this team is lacking, and it's a

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Speaker 1: good defense. You'd figure that maybe Eddy Howe coming in

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Speaker 1: would be able to write that ship, but he's not

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Speaker 1: that kind of manager anyway, so the appointment doesn't make sense.

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Speaker 1: This team doesn't make sense, and they also don't score like,

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Speaker 1: they don't create chances. They've created less than point seventy

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Speaker 1: five expected goals four in five of the last six matches.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, nord City were pretty unlucky not

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Speaker 1: to just absolutely bowl rush Wolves this week. Yeah, it

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Speaker 1: wasn't like they put up three expecta goals, but they

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Speaker 1: were the better team. Dean Smith has shown when he

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Speaker 1: took over Villa he can organize a team to start

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Speaker 1: where he can take them from that point on, who knows,

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Speaker 1: but at least he's doing a good job of getting

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Speaker 1: this team on the same page. Defensively, I don't think

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Speaker 1: Newcastle is going to be able to score or generate

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Speaker 1: much going forward, and I do think nord City will

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Speaker 1: be able to do that against a porous porest defense.

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Speaker 1: I think plus three ten is an awesome number. I

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Speaker 1: would bet this down to maybe like plus two forty.

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Speaker 1: That's how much I like this number. So give me

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Speaker 1: Nord City in a bottom of the table six pointer, Anthony.

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Speaker 1: Are you joining me with the Canary Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like them plus a half quite a bit.

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Speaker 4: Point three expected goals allowed is the fewest that Norwich

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Speaker 4: has allowed in the Premier League since we have tracking

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Speaker 4: data on Football reference dot com, so pretty much their

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Speaker 4: last three trips to the Premier League. It is the

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Speaker 4: fewest expected goals they've allowed in a game. Expected goal

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Speaker 4: difference has these two teams about even?

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Speaker 3: Now?

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Speaker 4: Think about that, given how bad Norwich was at one

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Speaker 4: point in the season, that Newcastle's attack was actually firing

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Speaker 4: relatively well at the beginning of the season. That's dropped

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Speaker 4: off considerably. My numbers Newcastle plus one twenty to win,

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Speaker 4: So Norwich minus won twenty to get at least a point.

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Speaker 4: Here the numbers right around minus one ten, right now?

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Speaker 3: I like that.

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Speaker 4: The other interesting thing here Newcastle's two of their four

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Speaker 4: starting defenders, Matt Ritchie and Jamal Lasels, who is the

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Speaker 4: captain on Saturday, they're both out due to yellow card suspension.

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Speaker 4: Big loss defensively for a team that's already struggled to

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Speaker 4: keep out goals. They've had goalkeeper issues. They've been rotating

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Speaker 4: through Darlow and de Brovka without much success with either

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Speaker 4: of them.

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Speaker 3: And Norwich City.

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Speaker 4: As much as we also credit Dean Smith for the improvements,

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Speaker 4: we also have to credit Billy Gilmore, who's back in

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Speaker 4: the side. He did not play for the last month

199
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Speaker 4: or so played the last three matches, not a coincidence

200
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Speaker 4: that Norwich improved defensively.

201
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Speaker 3: He's more solid in the midfield.

202
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Speaker 4: He's been pretty good at winning the ball, pressuring tackles

203
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Speaker 4: for ninety impressive stuff from the young twenty year old lad.

204
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Speaker 4: Newcastle wants to have the ball, but they don't have

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Speaker 4: the personnel.

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Speaker 3: To be good with the ball right now or to

207
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Speaker 3: win it back.

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Speaker 4: They started John Joe Shelby, who we all love for

209
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Speaker 4: his occasional bangers where he hits twenty five yard screamers,

210
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Speaker 4: but he adds almost nothing defensively, very little passing range,

211
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Speaker 4: doesn't do much, pretty much just a one man midfield

212
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Speaker 4: of Joe Willick and I don't like that at all

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Speaker 4: against Norwich here when I need him to win in

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Speaker 4: their minus money here, So I think Norwich is to

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Speaker 4: play plus a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Billy Gilmore at Todd kantwill working his way into

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Speaker 1: the squad too. Like so Daniel Farka, for as much

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Speaker 1: fun as he was to listen to after matches with

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Speaker 1: his team wouldet blown out and you'd be all positive

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Speaker 1: and stuff. He wasn't playing two of their better players

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Speaker 1: on a team that was in a relegation dogfight. So

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Speaker 1: can't well Gilmore the Canaries. Let's go Norwich City plus

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Speaker 1: three ten on Tuesday afternoon at two thirty. Another Tuesday

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Speaker 1: afternoon kickoff. This one of three fifteen leads United plus

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Speaker 1: one forty five home favorites against Crystal Palace plus two

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Speaker 1: o five the draws plus two to thirty Palace let

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Speaker 1: me down. This past weekend against Eston Villa. Not a

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Speaker 1: great performance from them, But I think this is a

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Speaker 1: good opportunity by low on a team that I believe in.

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Speaker 1: I think is over the course of the year, you

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Speaker 1: continue to back this team, I think you're gonna get

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Speaker 1: paid off pretty handsomely. And this leads team sure like

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Speaker 1: they just had a draw against Brighton and we're able

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Speaker 1: to hold them in that match, but they still allowed

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Speaker 1: one point nine expected goal, so this is not a

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Speaker 1: good defensive team and Palaces and they should be able

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Speaker 1: to handle this Leeds offense. They've both teams like depress.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Vieira has done a great job. This midfield is

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Speaker 1: really really good for Pallace, so I think plus two

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Speaker 1: five is a pretty good number here to go against

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Speaker 1: a once again another POORUS defense and it is a

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Speaker 1: pretty good Bilo spot. BJ. I know you disagree with me,

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Speaker 1: so tell the people what well.

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Speaker 2: I think we're just going to disagree on Crystal Palace

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Speaker 2: every single week because I am not as high on

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Speaker 2: them as you are. When I was looking at this match,

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Speaker 2: the home road splits for Crystal Palace are actually quite bad.

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Speaker 2: Away from Stelhurst Park, they have a negative two point

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Speaker 2: nine to one non penalty expected goal to French. I'm

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Speaker 2: allowing one point four to eight expected goals per match

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Speaker 2: when they're at home plus six point four to seven

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected gold Differnchal no only point five six

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Speaker 2: expected goals per match, so quite big differences between home

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Speaker 2: and away. Offensively, they're still below average twelfth and non

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Speaker 2: penalty expected goals thirteenth and shots for ninety. But the

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Speaker 2: big thing and when you're facing leads you have to

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Speaker 2: be good versus pressure. Christ Palace is pretty average tenth

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Speaker 2: in offensive passes per defensive action, but the five matches

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Speaker 2: that they've played against teams inside the top seven and

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Speaker 2: passes per defensive actions, they've only created over one expected

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Speaker 2: goal once and that was against Brighton at home and

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Speaker 2: I only created one point one to three expected goal.

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Speaker 2: So I do think leads is high press will be

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Speaker 2: able to be effective, especially at home. Leads offensively, I

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Speaker 2: do think they're starting to turn a corner the tenth

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Speaker 2: and expected goals fifth and shots for ninety fifth and

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Speaker 2: box entries, But the biggest thing is leads is really

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Speaker 2: really bad versus pressure. They're seventeenth in pressure success rate allowed,

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Speaker 2: but Crystal Palace only eleventh and passes per defensive action

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Speaker 2: and fifteenth and pressure success rate. It also looks like

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Speaker 2: they'll be getting Luke ailing back for injury, which is

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Speaker 2: big on the right flank there helping out defending Zaha.

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Speaker 2: Also a lot of Chrysal Palace's chances offensively have come

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Speaker 2: off with crosses this season, the sixth most completed in

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Speaker 2: the eighteen yard box in the Premier League. Leads allowed

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Speaker 2: the second fewest crosses in their on eighteen yard box,

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Speaker 2: so I have leads projected at plus one fifteen. Info

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Speaker 2: Goal has some leads of fifty one percent, so I

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Speaker 2: like leads John o'bett at minus one thirty.

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Speaker 1: And we'll move on to Wednesday afternoon to thirty pm kickoff. Southampton,

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Speaker 1: fresh off they're drubbing at the hands of Liverpool, are

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Speaker 1: plus one fifty five home favorites against Leicester City plus

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Speaker 1: one seventy five. The draw is plus two thirty five.

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Speaker 1: It's taking a lot for me not to back Southampton

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Speaker 1: here coming off of that loss, because I think this

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Speaker 1: Leicester defense once again is starting to show some real

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Speaker 1: issues and I think Southampton, a team that does press,

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Speaker 1: can cause them some problems. But at the moment, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna stay away from it. Anthony, how do you see

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Speaker 1: this one shaking out?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I think it's Southampton or pass.

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Speaker 4: When you look at the expected goals numbers, I think

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Speaker 4: Lester's over performance of the last two years over their

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Speaker 4: expected goals, which was very heavily driven by penalties, is

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Speaker 4: very much clouding what the perception of them is as

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Speaker 4: a team, and it certainly did for me and I

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Speaker 4: had them rated sixth coming into the season or fifth.

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Speaker 4: They're down at eighth now and at a certain point

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Speaker 4: I think I still have them too high because I

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Speaker 4: have them two spots.

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Speaker 3: Ahead of actually three spots ahead of Southampton.

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Speaker 4: You know, their expected goals numbers are just not good

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Speaker 4: and at a certain point we need to start accepting that.

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Speaker 4: I understand they beat Watford four to two on Sunday,

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Speaker 4: but they allowed over to expected goals to Watford, who

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Speaker 4: have had an offensive renaissance under run YERI recently, and

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Speaker 4: we'll get to that in a minute. But the concerns

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Speaker 4: defensively when you look at the amount of box entries

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Speaker 4: they're allowing, when you look at the amount of chances

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Speaker 4: they're allowing, and the fact their attack is still very

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Speaker 4: heavily reliant on quick strike stuff and doesn't really have

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Speaker 4: a plan in possession to build and progress the ball

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Speaker 4: up the pitch. I think it creates a pretty high

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Speaker 4: paced game and I think Southampton is favored there at home,

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Speaker 4: has some attacking regression coming again, created over one expected goal,

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Speaker 4: did not score, So it's Southampton or pass I'm not

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Speaker 4: sure if I'm going to fire on this one yet,

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Speaker 4: but definitely lean that way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was with you. I was hoping that this

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Speaker 1: number would sort of skyrocket after what we saw with

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Speaker 1: Liverpool just absolutely demolishing Southampton, but it's not getting to

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Speaker 1: that point yet. Another Wednesday kickoff Watford eight to one

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Speaker 1: home underdogs against Chelsea minus two ninety five the draws

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Speaker 1: plus four to fifty. I think this number is too

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Speaker 1: high on Chelsea, but I also don't think I am

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Speaker 1: going to bet against them at eight to one. Watford

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Speaker 1: has been hilarious since Ranieri took over. They've had twenty

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Speaker 1: total goals in their last five games. They've had a

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Speaker 1: four to two, a five to two, I think, a

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Speaker 1: FO one. So this team has been playing rock and

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Speaker 1: roll football under Claudio Ranieri. That probably isn't gonna work

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Speaker 1: against Chelsea. I don't think bj do you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Probably not. I like the total in this one

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Speaker 2: over three goals at plus one twenty five. Like you said,

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Speaker 2: their matches have just been crazy ever since the five

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Speaker 2: zero loss of Liverpool. They're averaging two point one eight

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Speaker 2: expect goals per match. They just put up a way

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Speaker 2: over two expected goals against Lester on Sunday. They're now

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Speaker 2: ninth and big scoring chances and it's very clear that

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Speaker 2: Rinieri wants to play a very open four to one

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Speaker 2: four one.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: The biggest problem for Watford this season though, is they

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Speaker 2: are horrible in defensive transition and they're very susceptible to

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Speaker 2: get beat on the counter because they're the third most

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Speaker 2: pressure team in the Premier League and they have the

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Speaker 2: worst pressure success rate allowed. So going against Chelsea side

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Speaker 2: that has the second best pressure success rate and is

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Speaker 2: incredibly deadly on the counter, especially with Werner and Lukaku

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Speaker 2: finally healthy, this one could get out of hand very

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Speaker 2: very quickly. And you know, we've talked about Chelsea offensive

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Speaker 2: and defensive progression seems like every single podcast, but they're

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Speaker 2: still third in non penalty expected goals four shots per

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Speaker 2: ninety and big scoring chances. About Watford is eighteen the

355
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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals. Watford also down a center back

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Speaker 2: and their starting goalkeeper, Ben Foster for this match, so

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Speaker 2: I just don't see how Chelsea's not going to put

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Speaker 2: at least two or three in the back of the nets.

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Speaker 2: I have two point nine to one goals projected for

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Speaker 2: this one, so I like over three goals at plus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I think courage and more courageous is the way Watford's

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Speaker 1: been playing like they been in the first few weeks

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Speaker 1: of the season. It's it seemed like a team that

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Speaker 1: had no problem trying to be on the back foot

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Speaker 1: and knew going into matches like we're not going to

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Speaker 1: win this one. Let's just try to keep it respectable.

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Speaker 1: And then Claudia Orginieri replaces Zisco and all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: there is a little bit of confidence in this group

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Speaker 1: and they're playing that way. They're playing a little bit,

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Speaker 1: you know, balls to the walls. It's they're fun to watch,

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Speaker 1: which is something I didn't think I would say, you know,

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Speaker 1: six weeks ago, seven weeks ago, Anthony, do you see

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Speaker 1: anything of value in this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean you mentioned it.

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Speaker 4: Coming into the season, I had Watford twentieth projected them

377
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Speaker 4: to be the worst team in the league, picked them

378
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Speaker 4: to be the worst team in the league, did not

379
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 4: bet it. But I think it's interesting how they're going

380
00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 4: about it because when you look at their numbers, they

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Speaker 4: have the third worst expect the goal difference because they

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Speaker 4: have some negative outliers where they gotten paddled a few times,

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Speaker 4: and you expect that as a team that's in the

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Speaker 4: bottom five in the league. When you look at them overall,

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Speaker 4: they have the sixth worst goal difference. They're sitting four

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Speaker 4: points above the relegation zone. They've notched some big wins

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Speaker 4: against Norwich that of course, the big win against Benchester United,

388
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Speaker 4: the big win against Everton. They're getting wins enough to

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Speaker 4: keep them in the league and that's really the goal

390
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,359
Speaker 4: here for Watford as they turn over their squad and

391
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,760
Speaker 4: kind of look toward the future. But the interesting thing

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Speaker 4: here against Chelsea, and this is a concern, is that

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Speaker 4: when they played and have played teams like City in

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Speaker 4: the past, when the team played teams like Liverpool earlier

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Speaker 4: this year, they have really struggled. When they haven't been

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Speaker 4: able to get out of the pressure and find the

397
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Speaker 4: out ball, they've kind of fallen apart. And if there's

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Speaker 4: one thing Liverpool or Chelsea will do in this game

399
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Speaker 4: is they will pen them in. Whereas when Watford gets

400
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Speaker 4: beyond that first level of the press, like they were

401
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 4: easily able to do against Man United, who had no

402
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,280
Speaker 4: structure or no clarity on what to do, it was

403
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,400
Speaker 4: very easy for their great attacking players like Dennis Ennis

404
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 4: my Lasar to break into space create chances to score

405
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,159
Speaker 4: four goals get only fired. But when they play a

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Speaker 4: team who has that structure, it's very much more difficult

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Speaker 4: for them, and that's when the mistakes and the lack

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Speaker 4: of talent defensively tends to show.

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Speaker 3: So I agree with Bjay on the over. It took

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Speaker 3: two and three quarters.

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Speaker 4: I actually just put it in before we started recording

412
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Speaker 4: minus one ten. I think Chelsea has shown a clear

413
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Speaker 4: difference this year too, that they don't want to win

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Speaker 4: one or two, no anymore, they want to go get

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Speaker 4: more and more goals. It's been a clear change when

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Speaker 4: you look at their numbers playing one ahead, they've been

417
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Speaker 4: much more aggressive this year compared to last year, and

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Speaker 4: so I think that also all favors the over, and

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Speaker 4: that's why I think two or three for Chelsea and

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00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,160
Speaker 4: maybe one for Watford as well.

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Speaker 1: I like the over, and just a quick word for

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00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 1: town cleverly still playing in the Premier League after all

423
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,639
Speaker 1: these years running rampant in the Watford midfield. Next up

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Speaker 1: we'll talk west Ham minus one fifteen home favorites against

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Speaker 1: Brighton Hove Alvey on their plus three twenty on the

426
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Speaker 1: money line to draw is plus two seventy five two

427
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Speaker 1: thirty pm kickoff Wednesday. Brighton hasn't been eight lately, which

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Speaker 1: is obviously depressing to us here on this podcast, as

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Speaker 1: they were the team that we loved to lose money

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Speaker 1: on last season and then won some money on at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of this season. West Ham also have hit

432
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Speaker 1: a little bit of a rough patch after defeating Liverpool

433
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Speaker 1: going into the international break in that famous win at

434
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Speaker 1: the London Stadium. They've lost two in a row to

435
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Speaker 1: a good competition Wolves and Manchester City in a snow match.

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Speaker 1: I think you're getting a decent number already on west

437
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 1: Ham at minus one fifteen. I want to wait to

438
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 1: see if this goes to plus money. If it does,

439
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 1: I think I will back David Moyes's Hammers. But I

440
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 1: know it's against both of your soccer ethos to bet

441
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 1: against Brighton, so I'm assuming that I'll probably be on

442
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 1: a west Ham island by myself here, Is that right? BJ?

443
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 2: Yeah? I love Brighton plus half a goal at even

444
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 2: money really, like you mentioned, really bad back to back

445
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: performances for west Ham now, granted, like you said, it

446
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,119
Speaker 2: was against Wolves and Manchester City on the road, but

447
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 2: only point sixty seven total expected goals through those two matches.

448
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,479
Speaker 2: That's really concerning, and the loss of Abana is just

449
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 2: it's very clear that west Ham's build up play is

450
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 2: hurting without him. They don't have a guy to start

451
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 2: that build up play and get it to Declan Rice,

452
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 2: get it moving forward up to Antonio. And now they're

453
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 2: facing a team in Brighton that's an incredible pressing team.

454
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,399
Speaker 2: Their fourth and passes per defensive action and fourth and

455
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 2: pressure success right, so it's going to be more difficult

456
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: for west Ham to actually get their build up play going,

457
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,679
Speaker 2: get the ball moving forward. And Brighton. I mean they

458
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 2: had a classic Brighton performance on Saturday, drew zero zero

459
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,679
Speaker 2: with leads one unexpected goals one point nine to nine

460
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 2: to point eight. They're still playing at an elite level

461
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 2: defensively on allowing one point one non penalty expected goals

462
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 2: for match, their fifth and shots allowed per ninety third

463
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,679
Speaker 2: and big scoring chances allowed in sixth and crosses completed

464
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: in their own eighteen yard box, and that's huge because

465
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 2: that's how west Ham creates a lot of their chances.

466
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 2: Their second in the Premier League and crosses completed in

467
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 2: the penalty area. Brighton has been pretty decent away from

468
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,640
Speaker 2: home only one loss the season, which against aston Villa.

469
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: When you know and Bill really wasn't able to create

470
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 2: much in that match. They have around it even non

471
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: penalty expected goal deferential in those six matches. Also looks

472
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 2: like Enoch and Waipa will be back in the midfield.

473
00:20:58,440 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 2: He was on the bench against Leeds and him and

474
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 2: sum we're playing together. Is a nightmare matchup for teams.

475
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 2: They're trying to beat the press and move the ball

476
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 2: forward because they're two of the best pressing midkillers in

477
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 2: the Premier League. I only have west Ham projected at

478
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 2: plus one twenty. If you look at Info Goal, they

479
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: have west Ham at forty two percent. So I think

480
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 2: there's some value on our Seagulls at plus halfable at

481
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 2: even money.

482
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 1: Anthony, I should note that you you have been betting

483
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 1: against Brighton a little bit this season, but you're going

484
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 1: back to the Seagulls for this one, aren't you.

485
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: I am indeed yes.

486
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 4: When you look at west Ham overall, there's been a

487
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 4: significant downturn in the last four or five matches in

488
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 4: their passes into the penalty area, and when I look

489
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 4: at that, I think a few things.

490
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 3: One, Okay, they played better teams Liverpool.

491
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 4: Manchester City, Wolves, more resistant to the kind of press

492
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 4: and possessed football that west Ham had been pretty good

493
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 4: at playing against the mid table and lower sides early

494
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:46,959
Speaker 4: in the season.

495
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 3: But it also just could be some regression to what

496
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 3: last year's west Ham team was.

497
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 4: We talked about this, I wrote about this west Ham

498
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 4: playing much more like a big team this year, Boston

499
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 4: more matches, controlling possession, progressing the ball at the field,

500
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 4: not as reliant on transition and counterattacks. While you're playing

501
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 4: a team now who plays more like a Liverpool or

502
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 4: a City in the way that they possessed the ball

503
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 4: and the way that they prevent you from progressing the

504
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 4: ball through the middle of the park, I think it's

505
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 4: going to be a very difficult situation for west Ham

506
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 4: to break down a very stingy Brighton defense. I have

507
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 4: been betting against Brighton's attack a little bit, especially when

508
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,400
Speaker 4: they didn't have malpe in there. But Malpey was back

509
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 4: and played relatively well. Didn't find the goal, but did have,

510
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 4: like we said, over one and a half expected goals.

511
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 4: It was a classic Brighton performance as a favorite where

512
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 4: they could not get the margin. But I like backing

513
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 4: them as a dog here, so I'm back on the

514
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 4: Brighton train for now plus a half. I also agree

515
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 4: with bj my production west Ham plus one twenty five.

516
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 4: When these two teams played last year, west Ham was

517
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 4: plus one thirty five. I'm not sure that the perception

518
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 4: of either team has changed that much in the last

519
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 4: calendar year. If anything, Brighton solidified themselves as a pretty

520
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 4: solid mid table team since then.

521
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 3: Same with west Ham.

522
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 4: Maybe slightly better, but west Ham a little overvalued here.

523
00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 4: Think Brighton gets a result.

524
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: Off to the Black Country we go Wolverhampton minus one

525
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: twenty favorites at the MOLINU against Burnley. The draws plus

526
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 1: two to fifty five a Wednesday two thirty pm kickoff.

527
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: Burnley unbeaten in their last four. They have three draws

528
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 1: in that span and a win, and they're playing better.

529
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 1: They are starting to do what we kind of expected

530
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 1: them to do, which is grind out wins, grind out

531
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: points against better opposition, make life a living hell when

532
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: you're playing against them. Their defensive numbers still aren't great,

533
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: but they're doing what Burnley does, which is getting results.

534
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: That being said, I think I like Wolves in this one.

535
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: At the moment. It's my as one twenty. I want

536
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 1: to see if maybe there is a little bit of

537
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: Burnley steam because they also didn't play this weekend because

538
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: of the snow that came through Turf. More so, their

539
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: game against Tottenham's postponed. So I wonder if maybe the

540
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: rest factor gets people to bet into Burnley, the fact

541
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 1: that they've been a little bit better. I'll see if

542
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 1: I can get Wolves at a plus number very similar

543
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 1: to west Ham, but that's probably the only way I'm

544
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: looking at. I don't think the number is high enough

545
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 1: to get involved with Burnley, but I do want to

546
00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: say I think this Burnley team's going to be a

547
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: team I'll be betting on a lot in the second

548
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: half of the season for sure. Anthony, how are you

549
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 1: seeing this one?

550
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 3: I am surprised you are not on Burnley here.

551
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 4: I thought this is a classic midweek Burnley spot for

552
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 4: Michael Leeboff, I was expecting that when we did the

553
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 4: pod prep, I was like stunned. When I went into

554
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 4: our little dock that we have it, I saw that

555
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 4: you were going to be on Wolves. Potentially some regression

556
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 4: coming for them too, or at least has come for

557
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 4: them in terms of their ability to get the ball

558
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 4: into the middle, into the dangerous areas on the pitch.

559
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 4: First five matches of the season they had nine to nine, eight,

560
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 4: seven and eight passes into the penalty area. The last

561
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: five matches they've had combined eleven. So we're looking at

562
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 4: a team that is having a lot of attacking breakdowns

563
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 4: in the final you know, getting the ball from the

564
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: attacking third into the final third has been a big

565
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 4: issue for them, and I'm not sure that Burnley's the

566
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 4: team you want to play when you have that issue.

567
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 4: So I'm passing here, if anything, lean towards Burnley to

568
00:24:58,440 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 4: get a point here, even away from home.

569
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really hard for me to look away from

570
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: that number. But you know, I do think that this

571
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: Wolves team, similar to Crystal Palace, is not being priced

572
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: I guess appropriately. Both of these teams, I think are

573
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: teams that I will be betting on quite a bit

574
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: as the season progresses. All right, Moving on another Wednesday

575
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: kick off a three to fifteen PM aston Villa eight

576
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: to one home underdogs against Manchester City minus two to

577
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: eighty five the draws plus four point fifty. Stephen Girard

578
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 1: has sorted out Villa's defensive issues. It seems they have

579
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: allowed under one expected goal in both of the matches

580
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: that he's been in charge in the Premier League. Brighton

581
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 1: was one opponent in the Crystal Palace this weekend, which

582
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: is impressive. I don't think he's going to be able

583
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: to do that against Manchester City, who in their own

584
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 1: right are a great defensive team. They have allowed one

585
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: point two expected goals total over their last three matches.

586
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 1: So the City team is just impossible to break down,

587
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 1: it seems. I don't think Villa are going to be

588
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: able to the screams of a match where Villa is

589
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 1: going to stick to their defensive structure that they want

590
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 1: to play under Gerard, especially while he sorts things out.

591
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: I don't think they'll take that many risks, and I

592
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: think City will be able to just kind of wait

593
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: a mountain claw a one or two nil victory. So

594
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: I like to under three City unders. They haven't really

595
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: been treating me well this season, but this is a

596
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 1: team that, Yeah, for all the offensive firepower they have,

597
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: their defense is just so good and they're so they

598
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: have such a good ability just suck the life out

599
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: of your opponent that oftentimes you'll see them win, you know,

600
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: two nail maybe two to one. So under three for

601
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 1: me is I think a pretty good bet. Bja do

602
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: you see anything for Gerard versus Pep.

603
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's kind of a past me. I do

604
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 2: lean under along with you still know Jack Relish still

605
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: know Kevin de Bruyna. Looks like Phil Foden is also

606
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 2: questionable for Manchester City, so that you know, obviously hurts them.

607
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 2: Obviously they have a ton you know, of depth in

608
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 2: their attacking midfielder ranks, so you can say it doesn't

609
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: really matter. You know, aston Villa hasn't really done much

610
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 2: offensively in steven Yards first two matches. You know, they

611
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 2: barely created close to one expected goal against Brighton, only

612
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: point four to five expected goals and they're two one

613
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: win against Crystal Palace. He's been setting them up in

614
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: a four two three one. Didn't play Emil Wendia this

615
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 2: weekend and brought up off the bench. So you know,

616
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: this is going to be another situation where Manchester City

617
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: is going to have a large share of the possession

618
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 2: and aston Villa is going to look hit him on

619
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: the counter and I don't know if they're really going

620
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 2: to be able to do that against Man City's defense

621
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 2: right now. So I do lean under three goals, but

622
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 2: right now it's pass for me.

623
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 4: I think the most interesting thing about this is, you know,

624
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 4: Okay Jarard had two great defensive performances, but they came

625
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 4: against Brighton without new Malpey, who had almost no shot getters,

626
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,360
Speaker 4: and then it came against Crystal Palace, who I think

627
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 4: we're all except apparently Michael, we're a little skeptical of

628
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 4: whether they can keep up these attacking numbers that they've

629
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 4: put up early in the season. And so this is

630
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 4: a huge, huge, huge step up and class and teams

631
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 4: you're facing. But also when you mentioned the fact that

632
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 4: you know Brighton is number one in the league at

633
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 4: final third possession not turning into shots, well City one

634
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 4: of the most efficient in the league, as you might

635
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 4: predict at turning final third possession into shots. Now, they

636
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 4: don't have, like Beja mentioned, some of their best attackers,

637
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 4: but they have so much depth that I don't even

638
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 4: think it matters. I also want to send my condolences

639
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: to anyone who had the under three in the west

640
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 4: ham City game on Sunday, because that game was one

641
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 4: nill going in the stoppage time and then City hits

642
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 4: has a great goal from Fernandinho who I think hadn't

643
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 4: scored in a year, and then of course Lanzini puts

644
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 4: a top Bins twenty five yard hit in from about

645
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 4: a mile away off the post and end. So terrible

646
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 4: beat if you had a terrible push if he had

647
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 4: the under in that game. But I think if there's

648
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 4: a look here, it's in the first half to go

649
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 4: the under, because I think City may pile on here late,

650
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 4: but I think early in the game, if you're going

651
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 4: to get a great effort, and Gerard's system is effective

652
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 4: at keeping City out, it'll be early on in the game,

653
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 4: Whereas I think as the game gets later. We've actually

654
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,239
Speaker 4: seen Villa has had more success when teams sit off

655
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 4: a little bit, kind of just pass it around. Villa

656
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 4: has actually had some success in those games at trying

657
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 4: to get in like a Nico late goal or two.

658
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, City unders are they're kind of like betting against Liverpool,

659
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: Like it's almost like you always again to see under

660
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: three or underd three and a half as as a

661
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: good value play, but they're an outlier team and sometimes

662
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: you just got to treat them as such and ignore it.

663
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 1: But I'm not gonna do that. I'm going to the

664
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: under here. Speaking of Liverpool, they are traveling to goodness

665
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: In Park for the Merseyside derby Evert in our home

666
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: there plus seven fifty Liverpool minus two sixty five the

667
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: draw is plus four to twenty five. I was I

668
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 1: don't know if I have it within me to watch

669
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: Everden right now depleted through injuries, not playing well. Rafa

670
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: Benitez obviously won a Champions League with Liverpool, so the

671
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: Liverpool fans coming to Goodison Park will surely have some

672
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: fun with that. It's just not a really fun time

673
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: to be an Everden fan. That being said, and this

674
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: is the conundrum we face every week with Liverpool. Because

675
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: they are such a good team and they put up

676
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: all these crazy numbers week in and week out, just

677
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: like they did against Southampton, their price just gets inflated.

678
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: Like there are people out there not passing any judgment

679
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 1: to people who bet like this, who just like, yeah, Liverpool,

680
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,719
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna keep backing Liverpool. I'm just gonna keep

681
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: doing it because what do they do? They basically win

682
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: every time they step on the free by this number.

683
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: I think is just too high on Liverpool once again,

684
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 1: so I'm not going to go there. I will likely,

685
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: unfortunately miserably have a very painful bet on Everett in

686
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: a small one on the money line at plus seven

687
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: fifty at Goodison Park, and I really hope you're not

688
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: joining me, either one of you. But Anthony will start

689
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: with you.

690
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

691
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 4: You know, Barney at the bar loves to bet Liverpool,

692
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 4: and I don't blame Barney in this situation.

693
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 3: I think this is a terrible matchup.

694
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 4: The only argument you could make for Everton is that

695
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 4: one for Charleston will be back, so that helps the

696
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 4: attack a little bit, pretty significantly so in fact, But

697
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 4: the way Everton have looked this year against teams who

698
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 4: press them, against teams who have high energy styles, you know,

699
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 4: especially with this being a rivalry where you don't expect

700
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 4: Klopp to ease up at all, and Liverpool knowing that

701
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: you know, in this title race, goal difference may well

702
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 4: decide it, and there's no reason to really take the

703
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 4: foot off the gas here. I mean, this is as

704
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 4: bad of a spot as you're going to get for Everton.

705
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 4: Geary Mina not expected back, looks like he's going to

706
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 4: be out, Talvert Lewin still out. They did get the

707
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 4: core back to Mauri Gray got in there, but we're

708
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: still going to really get Solomon Rondo on going up there.

709
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 4: I mean, the guy had zero point one expected goals

710
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 4: per ninety and five nineties.

711
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 3: That's unbelievably bad for a striker.

712
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 4: It's gonna take everything in me to not square out

713
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 4: and go to Liverpool here, but I'm gonna.

714
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 3: I'm gonna pass for now. We'll see how the market moves.

715
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 1: Every didn't have it once since a win over at

716
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 1: Norwich in September. They're plus seven fifty to be relegated.

717
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: Right now, they're only six points clear of the drop

718
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,719
Speaker 1: zone and Burnley has a game in hand because of

719
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: the snowed out game, which is just more evidence of

720
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: why you shouldn't really do everything you can to avoid

721
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: betting on the Toffees. But I just can't look.

722
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 4: Like still mad about those tickets that I did in

723
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 4: cash fading Everton early in the year because now they

724
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 4: can't win a match.

725
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: But they did. That's a funny thing about this team

726
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: is like their numbers overall don't look that glaringly bad

727
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,719
Speaker 1: because when they had been good players, right because when

728
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 1: they were healthy, they had a structure that was working

729
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: and their offense was going well. But everyone knew their

730
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: squad was thin, and as soon as they had the injuries,

731
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 1: everything's kind of fall in too shit, and that's what

732
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: we're looking at now. But BJ that's not enough to

733
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: keep you off this team.

734
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 2: They're really not that bad. I mean, like you know,

735
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 2: against Brentford this past weekend they were even unexpected goals

736
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 2: only allowed. Brentford have five total shots outside of the

737
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 2: penalty point five to three expected goals. They still created

738
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 2: one point two to one expected goals despite you know,

739
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 2: having basically nobody that could provide anything going forward. But

740
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 2: at the same time, like Anthony mentioned, is the horrible matchup.

741
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 2: Everton's horrible versus pressure. They've allowed the second most big

742
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 2: scoring chances this season, so going against Liverpool, that's just

743
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do. I'm trying, I'll be honest,

744
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: I'm just sitting here trying to find the courage to

745
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 2: put in Everton vet in the award winning Action Network app.

746
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 2: And it probably will only happen if Liverpool gets steamed

747
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 2: north of minus three fifty, which could happen, honestly, before

748
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 2: match time. Other than that, I will pass. But I'm

749
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 2: a weak person. And if I see Everton plus two

750
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: Eddie at close at you know, minus one ten, I

751
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 2: think I'll have to play that.

752
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, are we going to get a plus two?

753
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 1: We might.

754
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 3: Hope we don't get a plus two.

755
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 2: We might. I mean Liverpool is minus two sixty right now,

756
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 2: and they're kind of in the realm of like Bayern

757
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: Munich at this point when they're playing a bad team,

758
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 2: that they will just get steam hard at the end.

759
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: Because people see Liverpool, they see that number and they say,

760
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 2: oh my gosh, this is one of the best teams

761
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 2: in the world. Most sola Saudio Mane, like how could

762
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 2: they ever lose? You know, and obviously in a matchup

763
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: like this with Everton with all their injuries, like yeah,

764
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 2: of course, like that number is that high. But at

765
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 2: the same time, you know, we could see some some

766
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 2: hard steam on Liverpool and if that happened, I really

767
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: honestly hope it doesn't happen, because that means I'll have

768
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: to end up taking Everton and watching them mose five nothing.

769
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

770
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 3: This is Everton one draw in their last six Premier

771
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 3: League matches.

772
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it came against Man United.

773
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 4: Well they had a Tottenham draw on there too, actually

774
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 4: so United in Tottenham, but they played off the park

775
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 4: by west Ham Watford City Wolves.

776
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's stressing me out. I don't want to talk

777
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 1: about it anymore. Tottenham Hotspur they're taking on Brentford Spurs

778
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 1: minus one sixty five home favorites Brentford plus four to

779
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: seventy five in the money line to draw just north

780
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: of three to one at plus three ten. This is

781
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 1: a Thursday kickoff two thirty pm. The Bees Brentford, like

782
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 1: you just said, they really gutted out to victory over

783
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: Everton on Sunday morning. They got the one goal came

784
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: through penalty. They probably were a little lucky not to

785
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: concede a penalty on their own. But this is a

786
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: team that's kind of the opposite of Everdon right now,

787
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 1: Like this is a galvanized team that will go the

788
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: extra mile to get the result and a lot of

789
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 1: times in sports, not just in soccer but in hockey

790
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 1: like that is something like that is something you should

791
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 1: take into account. They are a tough team to play against,

792
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: their defenses holding up. They really are all on the

793
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 1: same page under Thomas Frank So I think that they

794
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: can get a result here, and I don't really trust

795
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: the Spurs offense, nor do I trust Antonio Conte to

796
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: kind of come in and just open things up for

797
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,320
Speaker 1: this team to turn this a dude back and forth affair.

798
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be more of a chess match,

799
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: all the ingredients I like for a draw. It's plus

800
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 1: three ten. I think that's a really good number for that.

801
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: I bet, so that's where I'm going. Brentford Tottenham draw

802
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 1: plus three ten, Thursday two thirty pm kickoff. Anthony, you

803
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: are a Spurs fan, do to have confidence in them

804
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: to be able to get the separation needed to cover

805
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 1: these kind of numbers against Brentford.

806
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 4: No, I still think they're a little inflated here. They've

807
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 4: been inflated for a while. They also got steamed both

808
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 4: against Everton and Leads thinking that's some new manager steam

809
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 4: coming in there. Pretty encouraging second half against Leeds if

810
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 4: there was an awful first half, but I'm not going

811
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 4: to read too much into a second half performance against

812
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 4: a team who was very shorthanded, was at home. I

813
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 4: think Brentford has the attacking, counterattacking pieces that can get

814
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 4: after this Tottenham team and get on the board, and

815
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 4: if they do, it's very hard to see Tottenham scoring

816
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 4: a significant number of goals here to cover the spread

817
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 4: that's set at one. There's a little bit of juice

818
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 4: on Brentford. I'm willing to eat the juice here. In

819
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 4: fade Tottenham. I think it's the fourth time I've faded

820
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 4: in this year, and I'm two and one, so I

821
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 4: know bj how many games Tottenham play. They played twelve games,

822
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 4: so Bja has faded time them twelve times, but he's

823
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 4: going to make it thirteen on Wednesday. This is my

824
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 4: fourth fade of Spurs. I just really don't trust them

825
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 4: to get margin against some of these bad teams in

826
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 4: the PREM. And they play Norwich next that's probably going

827
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 4: to be a fade as well. And then they've got

828
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 4: a Brighton road trip coming up. Not even sure they'll

829
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 4: be favored in that one. I definitely don't have them

830
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 4: projected as favorites in that one. So you know, maybe

831
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 4: KNTE will start to turn this around and I'll have

832
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 4: to adjust my priors. But my priors say right now

833
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 4: that Tottenham is one of the worst attacks in the prem.

834
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: Harry Kane looks cooked.

835
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 4: And until that changes, and I'll be watching the underlying

836
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 4: numbers closely, I'll let you know if it does. But

837
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,959
Speaker 4: until it changes, Brentford plus one minus one, twenty go ahead.

838
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 3: B J ran about Spurs again.

839
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 2: Well, you know, as an Arsenal fan, we haven't had really,

840
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 2: you know, much hope over the years. So like my

841
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: favorite part of this podcast every single week is coming

842
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 2: on and just ripping Tottenham a new one. And I'm

843
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 2: going to keep doing it until they show any sign

844
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 2: of life. Because what on earth is this number on Tottenham?

845
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 2: This is way way too high against the Brentford's side

846
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 2: that's one of the more under teams in the Premier League.

847
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 2: Tottenham is sixteenth in non penalty expected goals, nineteenth and

848
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 2: shots perinati, fourteenth in box entries and eighteenth and crosses

849
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 2: completed into the eighteen yard box. And I think I've

850
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 2: said that every single week, but I'm going to keep

851
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: saying it until they show any sign of life. And

852
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 2: they just lost to Slovenian side Murra in the Europa

853
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 2: Conference League on Thanksgiving. I know nobody was really paying attention,

854
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 2: but a two to one loss to a side that

855
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: small is alarming and can I I'd like to read

856
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: a quote from manager Antonio Conte after the match. After

857
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 2: three weeks, I am starting to understand the situation at

858
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:36,280
Speaker 2: this moment. The level at Tottenham is not so high.

859
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 2: I am happy to stay here, but we have to

860
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: work a lot to improve the quality of the squad.

861
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 2: That's basically what I've been saying for the last two weeks.

862
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: And also if we put that in a little manager translator,

863
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: that says, hey, Daniel Leeve, you're gonna have to open

864
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 2: up your checkbook big time in January or else I'm gone.

865
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 2: So and I don't think Daniel Lee is going to

866
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 2: do that. So the current squad he has is terrible

867
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 2: anybody's basically what he's saying is I can't work with

868
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 2: this team. So unless they improve greatly, this team's going

869
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 2: to be, you know, round seventh eighth all season long.

870
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 2: You know, Brentford obviously, you know, gut it out that

871
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: win on Sunday, But they have a plus three point

872
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,720
Speaker 2: eight one non penalty expected gold differential, which is fourth

873
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: best in the Premier League. But they're somehow sitting at

874
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 2: the bottom half of the table. The biggest weakness of

875
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:17,959
Speaker 2: the Brentford defense is their dead last in the Premier

876
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 2: League and crosses completed in their own penalty area. Well, Tottenham,

877
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 2: like I already mentioned their eighteenth and crosses in the penalty area,

878
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: so they're not gonna be able to get at this

879
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 2: Brentford defense and expose their vulnerabilities. So I have Tottenham

880
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: projected at plus one eleven. So I love Brentford plus

881
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 2: one at minus one twenty five and I'm gonna keep

882
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 2: fading this Tottenham team until they show any sign of life.

883
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got Tattenham minus one twenty so I'm not

884
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: quite as low on them as BJ but I'm pretty

885
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 4: low on them too. The one encouraging thing progressive passes

886
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 4: total the delta between four to against second best of

887
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 4: the season against Leeds. Only Watford game early in the

888
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 4: year was better. That's relatively encouraging Watford. The Averteon game

889
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 4: was also the time they were plus in that department

890
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:06,280
Speaker 4: in almost a month, so there's some possible things happening.

891
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 4: But again, when your striker's cooked, then he's only getting

892
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 4: two three shots for ninety you're not going to get

893
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 4: enough production to cover large.

894
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 2: Spreads, right, And also Christian Romero's out, So is like

895
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 2: Kante really going to play a back three of Eric Dyer,

896
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 2: Ben Davies and Tanganga like he did he did, And

897
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 2: that's that's just really well, that's it's just not going

898
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 2: to work long term against better, you know, attacking sides

899
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,800
Speaker 2: than Murras. So this number is way too high. I

900
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 2: really don't understand how Tottenham is all the way up

901
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 2: at minus one sixty five right now.

902
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: And that concludes the Premier League slate, the first midweek

903
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: slate of the season, and it's such a such a

904
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: fun time. As we get towards the holidays, we'll have

905
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: tons of midweek fixtures, Boxing Day, et cetera. It seems

906
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 1: like these teams this is when the rubber kind of

907
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: hits the road for the season. The title race should

908
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: start to really come into a clear focus, so should

909
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 1: the relegation battle and the top four of the kind

910
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 1: of storylines will be set for the next four or

911
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: five months. Here, all right, let's move on. There is

912
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,240
Speaker 1: there are other match is going on in other leagues,

913
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: including Syria. Ah BJ What is your favorite bet this

914
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: week in the Italian top flight?

915
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, like Torino minus won twenty at home against Himpoli

916
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 2: Torino one of the more underrated teams in all of Europe.

917
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 2: They're currently sitting in thirteenth place in Syria A, but

918
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 2: I have a plus seven point three non penalty expected

919
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 2: gold effronial, which is fifth in Italy. The main reason

920
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 2: for that, you know, we talk about at the beginning season,

921
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,839
Speaker 2: but they're really really good defensively, allowing only point eight

922
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: one non penalty expected goals for match, which is second

923
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 2: best behind only Napoli. They're also second in shots allowed

924
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: per ninety fourth and box centuries allowed and second and

925
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 2: crosses completed in their own team yard box. What I

926
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: love most about this matchup though, Torino is the best

927
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 2: pressing team in Italy first, and passes per defensive action

928
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 2: pressure success rate in ball recovery as well, and Polly

929
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,720
Speaker 2: offensively is seventeenth. And offensive passes per defensive action Torino

930
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 2: pretty good offensively seventh and non penalty expected goals eighth

931
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 2: and shots per ninety and fifth and crosses completed in

932
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 2: the penalty are while em Polly is bottom three defensively

933
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 2: in those three metrics. Torino dealing with a couple injuries,

934
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 2: Andrea Bloti is out, but he hasn't really done much

935
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: this season, only point ninety one expected goals and eight appearance,

936
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 2: so I don't think he's an absence will be that

937
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 2: big of a blow. I have Torino projected at minus

938
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: one fifty three, so I think there's some value on

939
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 2: them at minus one twenty.

940
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 1: Anthony, Where are you going in Syria this weekend?

941
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 3: Yeah?

942
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 4: Back in my good pal. Jose Mourinho under three goals

943
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 4: Bologna and Roma minus one twenty.

944
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 3: Here's the reality about Roma.

945
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 4: The early season for them, I have never seen Jose

946
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 4: Mourinho coach a team that was so open at the back,

947
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 4: that was so willing to take chances going forward, that

948
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 4: was so bad defensively.

949
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: And then they had a couple of losses. The losses

950
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 3: started to creep in.

951
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 4: They lost to Milan, they blew the lead against Menetsia

952
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 4: a couple of times. They had that embarrassing defeat at

953
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 4: Bodo Glimpt in the Europa Conference League where they lost

954
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 4: six to one.

955
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 3: It was one of the worst of beats of his career. Okay,

956
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 3: so we get an international break.

957
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 4: Then what happens Old Mourinho somewhat rears his ugly head

958
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 4: with his anti football Roma the last two games consecutive

959
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 4: clean sheets against Genewa and Torino to one to win.

960
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 4: Much more pragmatic, much less open, and the market really

961
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 4: isn't factoring that in here. I know Tammy Abraham has

962
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 4: some positive aggression coming in attack, but Roma is not

963
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 4: willing to take nearly as many chances as they were prior.

964
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 4: And it's not that different from what he did last

965
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 4: year at Tottenham when they had that three to three

966
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 4: draw with west Ham. They were playing pretty open, willing

967
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 4: to concede chances, willing to go for more goals. They

968
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 4: had that terrible draw and then he was like, nope,

969
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 4: we're shutting it down, and then they've tried to grind

970
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 4: out one no wins for the rest of the season.

971
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: I think maybe won't quite be that extreme, but I

972
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 4: think we're going to start to see something like that

973
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 4: in this situation here. Bologna also a ton of defensive

974
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 4: aggression coming. They play open, but I'm not sure that

975
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 4: they're going to be able to break down what's been

976
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 4: actually a relatively solid Roma defense the last few weeks,

977
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 4: and the numbers show it in terms of how much

978
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 4: they're allowing teams to get out and transition against them,

979
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 4: so I like the under three here only project two

980
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 4: point seven to.

981
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 3: One, so a little under here in Syria.

982
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 1: In the midweek, there's also one league match. It's Real

983
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: Madrid minus two thirty five against Athletic bill Bao, who

984
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 1: are seven to one on the money line to Druss

985
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 1: plus three sixty three pm Wednesday kick off. Of course

986
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 1: I'm going to be backing my boys from the Basque Country,

987
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: Athletic bill Bao seven to one. I mean, this is

988
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 1: a great defensive team. The numbers just way too high,

989
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: and you're getting a team that won't play itself out

990
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: of a game. Even against a team like Real Madrid.

991
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 1: This team won't. They're not going to in all likelihood

992
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: make the mistakes, make the defensive lapses that elite teams

993
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 1: like Madrid or you know, the Manchester Cities of the world,

994
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 1: Bayern Munichs of the world will be able to feast on.

995
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: So as long as they can stay in this game

996
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: and you're getting seven to one, they can drag this

997
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 1: thing out as long as possible. And you're sitting there

998
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,479
Speaker 1: with a seven to one ticket, that's a good bet.

999
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 1: So I'll take bill Bau plus seven to one bj

1000
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: you'd come into the Basque country with me with this one?

1001
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I'd like to a bow. Plus one, Listen

1002
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 2: what happened to Madrid on Sunday when the severe Real

1003
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: Madrid match was just astonishing because Sevilla not only should

1004
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: have gotten at least a draw, they really should have

1005
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 2: beaten Real Madrid. Madrid was benefited by a goalkeeping era.

1006
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: They the ref completely missed a clear penalty and then

1007
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 2: Savie also hit one off the woodwork, so three wonderful

1008
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 2: things went right for Real Madrid. And then of course

1009
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 2: Venetias Junior does what he has been doing all season long,

1010
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 2: and he finished one from way outside the box. So

1011
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 2: Niches Junior and Kareem Benzema have combined for twenty goals

1012
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 2: in La Liga off of thirteen point four to six

1013
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: expected goals.

1014
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 1: They're very good.

1015
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 2: They're not that good against VIA. I mean, Real madridally

1016
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 2: created one point two eight expected goals on Sunday, and

1017
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 2: if you take away that goalkeeping air for the first

1018
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 2: goal which led to a tap in for Kareem Benzema,

1019
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,839
Speaker 2: the only created zero point six to two expected goals

1020
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 2: off of thirteen shots. That's bad, and like you mentioned now,

1021
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 2: They're going up against the second best defensive team by

1022
00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals in La Liga, who plays a

1023
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 2: very defensive traditional four to four to two, and we'll

1024
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 2: just look to hit Real Madrid on the counter. And

1025
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 2: their style of play is very conducive to draws because

1026
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 2: Athletic bo bows unbeaten on the road this season, but

1027
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 2: they have one win and six draws and Real Madrid

1028
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: defensively has not been that great fourteenth and non penalty

1029
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 2: expected goals twelfth and shots for onty twelfth and big

1030
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,319
Speaker 2: scoring chances allowed. Courtois has not been very good in

1031
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: that minus one post shot expected goal plus minus this year.

1032
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 2: So this number is too high on Real Madrid. I

1033
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 2: have them projected at minus one thirty three, So I

1034
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: like Athletical but Billboo plus one, which will probably be

1035
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 2: at plus money.

1036
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1037
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: Billboo is known for its defense. But Anthony, you actually

1038
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 1: think that this offense can maybe hang with Madrid.

1039
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 3: In this one. I think BJ was too kind to

1040
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 3: the Real Madrid defense. Not that bad.

1041
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 4: They're fourteenth and expected goal is allowed that is terrible,

1042
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 4: and it's personnel related, but it's also you know, style

1043
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 4: of play related. I mean they're just very open and

1044
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 4: dangerously dangerously open on the counter attack. They've been very

1045
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 4: vulnerable to them all year, and the billbo attack is

1046
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 4: the reason why they have one of the best expected

1047
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 4: goal differences in the league. We always know that they're

1048
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,720
Speaker 4: going to be sturdy defensively, but in terms of going forward,

1049
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 4: they're in the top four and expected goals created this season,

1050
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 4: and they're also underperforming, so they've got a ton of

1051
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 4: regression coming in attack here thirteen goals from two expected

1052
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 4: guys like Anachi Williams, always dangerous on the counter at

1053
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 4: bill Boo have also played well against the big boys.

1054
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 4: They got a draw with Barcelona, thought they were the

1055
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 4: better team in that game. I got a draway Atletico Madrid,

1056
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 4: also getting a draw with Socia Dodds, so they've gotten

1057
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 4: results against all of the big teams in this league

1058
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 4: pretty much. They beat for the Real as well. I

1059
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 4: think they get on the board here and it was

1060
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 4: a little juicy, so I played both. The over team

1061
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:25,399
Speaker 4: total was a little juicy if you want to chase

1062
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 4: an over one and a half team total. I don't

1063
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 4: hate that either, but I'm playing both teams to score

1064
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 4: here because I do think ultimately Real will get the

1065
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 4: goal at home and minus one ten is a good

1066
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 4: number there.

1067
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 1: It does beg repeating something I bring up all the

1068
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 1: time when we talk about bill bowis that they don't

1069
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: buy players in the transfer market. They just develop them

1070
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: and they have to be from the best country. So

1071
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 1: they are quite a peculiar and interesting club. All right,

1072
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 1: let's move on to the next part of the program.

1073
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 1: This is where Bja takes over and gives us his

1074
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 1: favorite League oh play of the week.

1075
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, full first off athletic bill boo. You know that process.

1076
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 2: They've never been relegated, only them, I believe in Real

1077
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 2: Majard are the only two teams to never be relegated

1078
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 2: from Loligo. But anyway, let's move to France. Probably the

1079
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: worst match of the week or midweek Choice against Lorient.

1080
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 2: I love under two and a half goals of minus

1081
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 2: one twenty. These are two of the worst offensive teams

1082
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 2: in League on. Choice and Lorient both have scored only

1083
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 2: thirteen goals in fifteen matches and they're creating under one

1084
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 2: expected goal per match. Lorient dead last in shots per

1085
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 2: ninety and big scoring chances, nineteenth in box entries, and

1086
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 2: their second to last in pressure success rate allowed. Troyce

1087
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 2: isn't a great defensive team, but they did just hold

1088
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 2: Marseille to one point one five expected goals on Sunday,

1089
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 2: and fifty seven percent of their matches this season have

1090
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:40,439
Speaker 2: gone under two and a half goals. Lorient defensively has

1091
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 2: been a nightmare, but they're only allowing point nine to

1092
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 2: six expected goals from open play. They've just been horrific

1093
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 2: on set pieces and had really bad penalty luck. Troye

1094
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 2: is pretty bad offic set pieces, only point zero seven

1095
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 2: expected goals per set piece, and they've only scored ten

1096
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 2: goals from open play this season, so it's no surprise.

1097
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,720
Speaker 2: They're fifteenth in non penalty expected goals shots for ninety

1098
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 2: and eighteenth in box centuries. I only have two point

1099
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 2: zero seven goals projected for this one, so I like

1100
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 2: under two and a half goals and minus one twenty

1101
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 2: with two of the worst offensive teams in France.

1102
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 1: We're getting towards the end of this week's episode, but

1103
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 1: before we do, of course, we will be giving out

1104
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,759
Speaker 1: our favorite underdogs for the midweek. I'll go first. I

1105
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: can't begin to tell you how much I like the

1106
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,359
Speaker 1: number on Norich City against Newcastle Newcastle is the worst

1107
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: team in the Premier League and they are odds on

1108
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 1: to be Norwich City, who are improving. They're not good either,

1109
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 1: but they are improving under Dean Smith and they are

1110
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 1: kind of the right team to take advantage of Newcastle's

1111
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 1: glaring deficiencies. So I like Norwich City. Three to one

1112
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: is a great number. I've played all the way down

1113
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 1: the plus two forty. Give me the Canaries to start

1114
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 1: this parlayoff. BJA, what is your favorite underdog play this week?

1115
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I already mentioned it. Brentford plus four seventy at Tottenham.

1116
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:59,400
Speaker 2: This number is and completely overinflated for Tottenham. I've already

1117
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 2: said a million t but I'll say it again. Sixteenth

1118
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 2: and non penalty expected goals, nineteenth and shots pereneti, fourteenth

1119
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: in box entries and eighteenth and crosses completed in the

1120
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 2: eighteen yard box. Conte does not have the squad that

1121
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 2: he wants to play with right now. They have a

1122
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 2: long ways to go to actually, you know, basically get

1123
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,240
Speaker 2: up to this number against the Brentford team that's very underrated.

1124
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 2: Fifth best non penalty expected goal differential in the Premier

1125
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 2: League or sorry, fourth best non penalty expected, gold defferential

1126
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 2: in the Premier League, but somehow they're in the bottom

1127
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 2: half of the table. Tottenham will not be able to

1128
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 2: exploit Brentford's weaknesses defensively. Brentford also defensively tenth in shots

1129
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 2: perineti sixth and the big scoring chances allowed, so I

1130
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be very hard for Tottenham to create chances.

1131
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: Also know Christian Romero for Tottenham, so the back three

1132
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 2: is just not going to have a lot of long

1133
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 2: term success with Eric Dyer, Davies and Tanganga. So I

1134
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: only have Tottenham projected at plus one eleven, so I

1135
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 2: love Brentford at plus four to seventy five.

1136
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 1: All right, Anthony, your favorite underdog resides outside of the

1137
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:53,760
Speaker 1: Premier League. Who are you going with this week?

1138
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with Uda Nasci plus four fifty on

1139
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 4: the road at Lazio.

1140
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,280
Speaker 3: Really not buying much in do Loatzio this season.

1141
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 4: They are even and expected goals four and expected goals

1142
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 4: allowed sorry, ball really not working out when you look

1143
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 4: at how bad they've been out of possession fifteenth, in

1144
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 4: box entries allowed sixteenth and crosses allowed into the penalty area.

1145
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 4: They've kind of been a mess defensively going forward, haven't

1146
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 4: been a ball progression juggernaut either. They're facing a Utnesse

1147
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 4: team who I'm not going to pretend is some is

1148
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,399
Speaker 4: some great team. They're very mediocre in Syria, but their

1149
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 4: expected goals difference is actually quite similar to Latsio. Overall,

1150
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 4: they're a below average Siria team. Latio simply should not

1151
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,320
Speaker 4: be minus one to seventy money line favorites against anybody

1152
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 4: in this league except the worst of the worst, which

1153
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 4: Udonesi is not. So I'm hoping my guy Isaac's success

1154
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 4: can find some success in this game and Udinessei can

1155
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 4: get all three points on the road here like the price.

1156
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 4: I've hit two in a row, so probably gonna lose badly,

1157
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 4: but we're hoping for three and Esse to get us done.

1158
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 1: Brentford, Norwich and Udinesi. If you partlay all three of

1159
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,280
Speaker 1: those guys together one hundred twenty nine to one, there's

1160
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 1: your holiday shopping done and dusted. If all three of

1161
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 1: those teams win, which they won't. All right, let's move

1162
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 1: on to our favorite bets for the Premier League the

1163
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:12,239
Speaker 1: midweek fixtures. I'll start us off Crystal Palace plus two

1164
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 1: o five. I am a true believer in this team.

1165
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:17,240
Speaker 1: I think the overall body of work is really starting

1166
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 1: to show. And yeah, they did lose last week and

1167
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:21,959
Speaker 1: they were my favorite bet last week, but I'm gonna

1168
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 1: buy low on them plus two to five against a

1169
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: porous Leeds United defense, which, despite a good performance in

1170
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 1: terms of actual results last week, still gave up one

1171
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 1: point nine expected goals to Brighton. So I think that

1172
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,839
Speaker 1: this Palace defense should have no problem scoring and they're

1173
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 1: defensively capable enough to keep this Leads United offense at Bay.

1174
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 1: Give me Crystal Palace plus two o five. That's my

1175
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,600
Speaker 1: favorite bet there. Tuesday three fifteen pm kickoff in the

1176
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 1: Premier League. BJ. What is your favorite bet in the

1177
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 1: Premier League this week?

1178
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Brighton plus half a goal at even

1179
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: money against West Ham. Two really bad back to back

1180
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 2: performances for West Ham in the Premier League against Wolves

1181
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:57,919
Speaker 2: and Manchester City on the road point six to seven

1182
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:01,280
Speaker 2: total expected goals created in those two matches. The loss

1183
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,800
Speaker 2: of Obana at center back is huge for the Hammers

1184
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 2: right now. He is the beginning of their entire build

1185
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 2: up play and without him they're really struggling to find

1186
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,320
Speaker 2: that build up play from the back. Now they're facing

1187
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 2: one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League.

1188
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,280
Speaker 2: Brighton is fourth and passes per defensive action and pressureus

1189
00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: success rate. Last weekend was a classic Brighton performance. They

1190
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 2: drew zero zero with leads but one unexpected goals one

1191
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 2: point nine to nine to point eight. They're still playing

1192
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:25,799
Speaker 2: at an elite level defensively. They're allowing one point one

1193
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals per match their fifth and shots

1194
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: loud per ninety and third and big scoring chances allowed

1195
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 2: but the big one in this one match is west

1196
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: Ham is second and crosses completed in the eighteen yard bocks.

1197
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 2: Brighton is sixth in the Premier League in preventing crosses

1198
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 2: into their own penalty area. Brighton has been pretty decent

1199
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 2: away from home, only one loss this season, which is

1200
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:44,439
Speaker 2: against Aston Villa, who didn't really create anything against them.

1201
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 2: They have around an even a non penalty expected goldfferential

1202
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 2: on the road and in those six matches. Also Enoch

1203
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 2: and Waipu will be back for Brighton. He was on

1204
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 2: the bench against Leeds, probably will get the start along

1205
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: with Basuma and those two are a nightmare against teams

1206
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 2: who are trying to get through the press. I have

1207
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,400
Speaker 2: west Ham projected at plus one twenty, so I like

1208
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 2: Briton plus half a goal and even money.

1209
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 1: And Anthony, I'll let you wrap up this show with

1210
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: your favorite Premier League bet of the midweek.

1211
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's go with the Canaries Norwich plus a half

1212
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:15,319
Speaker 4: against Newcastle. Norwich coming off their best defensive performance they've

1213
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,879
Speaker 4: had in the Premier League since we've had XG data

1214
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 4: that we can track game by game. The expected goal

1215
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 4: difference on these two teams is about even my number

1216
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 4: Norwich minus one twenty to get a point. You can

1217
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 4: find even to minus one ten out there right now.

1218
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,439
Speaker 4: I really like that Newcastle is going to be down

1219
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 4: multiple starters defensively, including their captain Jamala Sells and Matt

1220
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 4: Ritchie due to yellow cards suspension. Billy Gilmore has returned

1221
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 4: to improve the Norwiche midfield. New manager Bounce is underway

1222
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 4: for Norwich, who have looked better, and really Newcastle does

1223
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 4: not fit and does not have the personnel to play

1224
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:47,319
Speaker 4: the way that Eddie Howe wants to.

1225
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,359
Speaker 3: Not really buying into the John Joe Shelby revolution here.

1226
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 4: Don't think Newcastle should be minus money against anybody, so

1227
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 4: as bad as they look at the weekend, I'm going

1228
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 4: to keep fading them. I'm going to take Norwich plus

1229
00:53:57,560 --> 00:53:59,720
Speaker 4: a half minus one ten.

1230
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:02,919
Speaker 1: And that will do it for another episode of Wonder Goal.

1231
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,920
Speaker 1: We will be back on Thursday to preview this weekend's

1232
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 1: matches and get used to us because it's about to

1233
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 1: get really really busy here in the soccer calendar as

1234
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,760
Speaker 1: all the festive fixtures come our way, and we're happy

1235
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 1: to have you along for the ride. Good luck with

1236
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 1: all your bets this weekend. For BJ, for Anthony, I'm Michael.

1237
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 1: We'll see you on Thursday.