WEBVTT - Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:26.604 Pushkin, Hey, Risky Business listeners. This weekend, Nate and I 0:00:26.644 --> 0:00:28.604 took a break from the World Series of Poker to 0:00:28.684 --> 0:00:32.124 go to the Aspen Ideas Festival. Sunday night, we got 0:00:32.124 --> 0:00:35.244 to tape a live episode of the Risky Business podcast 0:00:35.564 --> 0:00:38.204 and we're so happy to share that with you today. 0:00:38.484 --> 0:00:44.044 We hope you enjoy it. Welcome back to Risky Business, 0:00:44.084 --> 0:00:47.884 a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kondakova. 0:00:47.564 --> 0:00:48.524 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:49.244 --> 0:00:51.844 So today on the show, we're going to be starting 0:00:52.404 --> 0:00:54.284 with a little bit of poker. So Nate and I 0:00:54.324 --> 0:00:57.364 are both here from lovely Las Vegas because it is 0:00:57.404 --> 0:01:00.004 currently the middle of the World Series of Poker, but 0:01:00.124 --> 0:01:02.884 we love Aspen and the Aspen Ideas Festival so much 0:01:03.204 --> 0:01:05.084 that we're taking time off to be here. 0:01:05.284 --> 0:01:08.204 With only one straight days of poker, we can spare 0:01:08.284 --> 0:01:10.164 one day for the Aspen Night Festivals. 0:01:10.484 --> 0:01:14.284 We're going to be talking about a recent controversy at 0:01:14.444 --> 0:01:17.124 the World Series of Poker and what happened there. But 0:01:17.924 --> 0:01:21.044 after that we're going to be getting into something much metior. 0:01:21.444 --> 0:01:23.524 Yeah, I think the election of z around. 0:01:23.604 --> 0:01:26.284 I'm Donnie in New York or not, excuse me, The 0:01:26.364 --> 0:01:29.004 nomination he's still has to win. The general election is 0:01:29.164 --> 0:01:32.084 one of the most interesting and seismic events in American politics, 0:01:32.444 --> 0:01:34.444 at least since the election, you know, one of the 0:01:34.484 --> 0:01:38.484 most successful opportunities for like a explicitly socialist left wing 0:01:38.484 --> 0:01:41.444 candidate to Governess said, it's actually very pro financed. New 0:01:41.484 --> 0:01:44.404 York is not left in the way that Portland is 0:01:44.524 --> 0:01:46.244 or Espen might be, or things like us. We're going 0:01:46.284 --> 0:01:48.804 to talk about both the strategy behind rank choice voting 0:01:48.804 --> 0:01:50.364 and how that might have affected things, but also just 0:01:50.764 --> 0:01:53.364 you know, a big political moment, how this might affect 0:01:53.364 --> 0:01:54.924 the party's decisions going forward. 0:01:55.284 --> 0:01:58.364 And after that we will play a little game called 0:01:58.524 --> 0:02:02.484 how likely is It where we will test our knowledge 0:02:02.524 --> 0:02:08.284 and your knowledge of probabilistic thinking. So let's get into it, Nate. Yeah, So, 0:02:08.444 --> 0:02:14.124 first of all, we have a controversy at the World 0:02:14.164 --> 0:02:17.284 Series of Poker last week was one of the biggest 0:02:17.364 --> 0:02:20.364 tournaments of the summer. It's called the millionaire Maker because 0:02:20.404 --> 0:02:22.924 first place is always guaranteed to be at least a 0:02:22.924 --> 0:02:26.844 million dollars. This was a record breaking millionaire Maker, so 0:02:27.004 --> 0:02:30.884 second place was also over a million dollars. This was 0:02:31.204 --> 0:02:35.804 complicated by the fact that there was also a promotion 0:02:36.364 --> 0:02:39.804 being run by a rival brand, the World Poker Tour, 0:02:40.204 --> 0:02:42.964 which one of the two players who ended up getting 0:02:43.004 --> 0:02:44.924 heads up, which is one of the final two players, 0:02:45.004 --> 0:02:48.404 was eligible for which meant that if he won the tournament, 0:02:48.484 --> 0:02:51.484 and only if he won the bracelet, he would get 0:02:51.484 --> 0:02:56.284 an extra million dollars. So think about for a second, right, 0:02:56.324 --> 0:02:59.284 in the context of decision making, in the context of 0:02:59.884 --> 0:03:04.884 incentives exactly, incentives matter. What that does they get heads up? 0:03:05.204 --> 0:03:07.244 So two people left, only one. 0:03:07.084 --> 0:03:09.924 Time wines final feo. 0:03:10.004 --> 0:03:12.644 Happens to be the guy who can win this additional 0:03:12.684 --> 0:03:15.204 million dollar bonus on top of the million dollars has 0:03:15.204 --> 0:03:15.644 already won. 0:03:15.844 --> 0:03:20.124 Yes, Unfortunately, this guy has a chip deficit of nine 0:03:20.284 --> 0:03:23.284 to one. So that means that the other player, right, 0:03:23.324 --> 0:03:26.124 the one who is not eligible for the million dollars, 0:03:26.364 --> 0:03:30.524 has him out chipped nine times. So what that means 0:03:30.604 --> 0:03:33.124 is that usually nine times out of ten, that guy's 0:03:33.164 --> 0:03:35.604 going to win the tournament. And what happens to the 0:03:35.604 --> 0:03:42.404 million dollar bonus, It disappears incentives matter. So what ended 0:03:42.484 --> 0:03:46.764 up happening was a very strange heads up match that 0:03:46.844 --> 0:03:49.764 looked an awful lot. This is just allegations, you know, 0:03:49.844 --> 0:03:53.604 nothing proven, an awful lot like collusion. There was a 0:03:53.724 --> 0:03:56.604 lleged chip dumping where one of the players dumped chips 0:03:56.644 --> 0:03:59.284 to the other players and made what was supposed to 0:03:59.324 --> 0:04:02.004 be an incredibly competitive, televised by the way this was 0:04:02.044 --> 0:04:05.604 all televised match into something that looked very strange into 0:04:05.644 --> 0:04:07.684 people outside of poker. They were like, what in the 0:04:07.684 --> 0:04:12.044 world was going on? The player who had the million 0:04:12.084 --> 0:04:16.164 dollar incentive won the bracelet, won the tournament, and they 0:04:16.164 --> 0:04:18.244 are now currently both under investigation. 0:04:20.204 --> 0:04:21.884 Yeah. No, I mean there are a couple of themes here. 0:04:21.924 --> 0:04:23.764 I mean one is kind of how so it's not 0:04:23.844 --> 0:04:27.524 just that the tournament is televised, it's that in televised poker, 0:04:27.964 --> 0:04:30.924 the audience gets to see the player's private cards. 0:04:31.204 --> 0:04:32.804 Right, So to think that you could have. 0:04:32.844 --> 0:04:35.844 This live streamed on TV and everybody can like see 0:04:35.844 --> 0:04:37.884 the hands face up, basically accept the two opponents that's 0:04:37.884 --> 0:04:40.964 taped to lay fifteen minutes. Right, If one player what's 0:04:40.964 --> 0:04:45.884 his name, Jesse, Jesse, If Jesse had been way ahead. 0:04:45.644 --> 0:04:47.684 Then maybe, like you know what, maybe we're gonna be 0:04:47.724 --> 0:04:48.204 a little loose. 0:04:48.244 --> 0:04:52.404 But instead, every single decision he plays as though he 0:04:52.444 --> 0:04:55.164 has knowledge of what his opponent has. 0:04:55.284 --> 0:04:55.484 Right. 0:04:55.524 --> 0:04:57.124 Almost that exception to the point where the hosts are 0:04:57.124 --> 0:04:59.484 commenting on the real time. If you go and look 0:04:59.524 --> 0:05:02.964 at computers, computers now have solved poker at least heads 0:05:03.044 --> 0:05:05.044 up pick a poke in particular to a high degree. 0:05:05.204 --> 0:05:07.924 These are all plays that are done zero percent of 0:05:08.004 --> 0:05:10.724 the time in op and we'll play that are done 0:05:10.764 --> 0:05:14.564 almost your percent of the time by two very experienced players. Right, 0:05:14.884 --> 0:05:17.604 things like folding a pair to a tiny bit, which 0:05:17.684 --> 0:05:18.204 heads up poker. 0:05:18.204 --> 0:05:19.924 It's hard to make a hand in poker. You're never 0:05:19.964 --> 0:05:24.164 supposed to do that. And so now and people are torn. Right. 0:05:24.164 --> 0:05:26.684 There are people who say, well, they didn't hurt anyone 0:05:26.724 --> 0:05:29.124 because they were heads up, right, so it's not like 0:05:29.164 --> 0:05:31.764 they took chips from a third player. Now, I'm writing 0:05:31.764 --> 0:05:34.724 a book right now about cheating in games, and so 0:05:34.844 --> 0:05:37.244 this is something that kind of I've thought about a lot. 0:05:37.444 --> 0:05:40.044 And on the one hand, I am sympathetic a little 0:05:40.044 --> 0:05:42.444 bit to that argument because a lot of the worst 0:05:42.724 --> 0:05:45.364 cheaters and a lot of the big cheating things in games, 0:05:45.484 --> 0:05:48.484 it hurts other people, right, it hurts other players. You're 0:05:48.524 --> 0:05:52.564 taking away equity from other players. If we assume that 0:05:52.644 --> 0:05:56.684 they were playing completely above board up until this point, 0:05:56.884 --> 0:06:00.764 then no one else was hurt. However, However, there is 0:06:00.804 --> 0:06:03.644 another consideration here. Right. So one of the things that 0:06:03.804 --> 0:06:07.444 I am a huge proponent on, and we've talked about 0:06:07.444 --> 0:06:09.324 this on the show, is sportsmen. 0:06:09.884 --> 0:06:10.004 Right. 0:06:10.044 --> 0:06:14.044 There are two concepts, gamesmanship and sportsmanship. Gamesmanship is you 0:06:14.124 --> 0:06:16.484 know I'm going to win, and you know, I don't 0:06:16.484 --> 0:06:18.604 care how I get there, right, Like, I will take 0:06:18.684 --> 0:06:22.204 every single edge I can possibly take because I want 0:06:22.284 --> 0:06:25.164 to get there. Sportsmanship is doing it in kind of 0:06:25.164 --> 0:06:28.124 a the spirit of the game, right, the spirit of 0:06:28.164 --> 0:06:30.924 the sport, in a to use an old school term, 0:06:30.924 --> 0:06:35.084 in a gentlemanly fashion, right, that you actually respect the 0:06:35.084 --> 0:06:38.924 game you're playing. When you're looking at a televised competition 0:06:39.204 --> 0:06:42.244 that's representing the game and people are watching it and 0:06:42.324 --> 0:06:47.884 expecting something to instead of competition, instead of an actual match, 0:06:48.244 --> 0:06:53.724 to give people, you know, chip dumbing or whatever it is, 0:06:54.244 --> 0:06:56.644 that goes against the spirit of the game, and that 0:06:56.764 --> 0:06:57.084 is something. 0:06:57.204 --> 0:06:58.124 Also it also. 0:06:58.124 --> 0:07:00.364 Lates the rules, Like the first rule of poker is 0:07:00.364 --> 0:07:03.204 that one player to a hand. It's an individual game, 0:07:03.444 --> 0:07:06.084 not a team game. Right, So that fundamental precept of 0:07:06.084 --> 0:07:07.004 poker is violated. 0:07:07.164 --> 0:07:09.124 It does, and you know, I was thinking about it 0:07:09.164 --> 0:07:12.124 in kind of broader games. Like imagine if you were 0:07:12.164 --> 0:07:14.964 watching a tennis match, right, that's also a heads up match, 0:07:15.004 --> 0:07:17.764 a player one against the other, and it became clear 0:07:18.204 --> 0:07:20.964 that someone was throwing the match, and that's happened, right. 0:07:21.044 --> 0:07:23.604 Tennis is actually one of the sports where cheating is. 0:07:24.404 --> 0:07:27.084 There's a lot of it going on, and if you 0:07:27.164 --> 0:07:30.124 watch that, you feel cheated as a spectator and as 0:07:30.124 --> 0:07:32.164 a lover of the game, you kind of feel like 0:07:32.244 --> 0:07:35.204 something was taken away from you. So I can understand. 0:07:35.404 --> 0:07:38.244 And by the way, I really like Jesse, like the 0:07:38.644 --> 0:07:42.084 player who ended up winning. He's sweet and sweet, wonderful guy. 0:07:42.404 --> 0:07:44.804 But you have to be careful, right, if you like someone, 0:07:44.884 --> 0:07:46.644 it doesn't mean that what they did know in the rest. 0:07:46.644 --> 0:07:47.964 It's just kind of a theme that will tie this 0:07:48.044 --> 0:07:50.564 into kind of larger themes at this conference. So I 0:07:50.684 --> 0:07:52.684 not just straddle back and forth being poker and like 0:07:53.044 --> 0:07:54.884 the real world, but like I am involved in like 0:07:55.524 --> 0:07:58.644 lots of small, tight knit communities, right, I'm not an 0:07:58.684 --> 0:08:00.004 effective out your wist, But I know a lot of 0:08:00.004 --> 0:08:02.524 people who describe themselves that way, right, I know, like 0:08:02.564 --> 0:08:05.244 the sports analytics nerds, I know people who work in 0:08:05.244 --> 0:08:08.044 politics and politics analytics nerds right, and like over and 0:08:08.084 --> 0:08:11.284 over again, people are very short sighted about the weird 0:08:11.764 --> 0:08:14.764 by normal person standards, norms and their small communities and 0:08:15.564 --> 0:08:18.284 don't think about what happens when this kind of translates 0:08:18.564 --> 0:08:20.684 to the outside world that hey, actually there's such a 0:08:20.684 --> 0:08:23.364 thing as like the state of Nevada has gaming regulations. 0:08:23.524 --> 0:08:26.724 If there's no regularity, are actually obligated to report that? 0:08:26.924 --> 0:08:29.044 Or the fact that, okay, why are we having this 0:08:29.044 --> 0:08:32.204 world series poker? It's bigger every year, despite the tariffs 0:08:32.204 --> 0:08:35.764 and despite various headwinds, writing their setting record fields again 0:08:35.844 --> 0:08:36.204 this year. 0:08:36.244 --> 0:08:37.764 Well where do the players come from? Right? 0:08:37.804 --> 0:08:41.004 They come from like watching poker on TV or on 0:08:41.084 --> 0:08:43.004 video and saying that would be extremely fun if one 0:08:43.044 --> 0:08:44.684 day I were to make a final table and I've 0:08:44.684 --> 0:08:46.964 done it, you know, I have one time finished second 0:08:47.004 --> 0:08:49.244 place an event like this, right, you know, it's a 0:08:49.284 --> 0:08:51.604 thrill of a lifetime. But like to undermine that and 0:08:51.644 --> 0:08:53.764 to do it in this way that like, I don't know, 0:08:53.804 --> 0:08:56.724 I think it a narrowness of like perspective. 0:08:56.884 --> 0:08:59.204 It does, it does, and I do think that. You know, 0:08:59.244 --> 0:09:01.964 when you're even talking about game theory, there's short term 0:09:01.964 --> 0:09:03.924 and there's a long term, and you need to be, 0:09:04.604 --> 0:09:06.084 you know, no matter what, you need to have the 0:09:06.124 --> 0:09:07.924 long term in mind and the long term health of 0:09:07.964 --> 0:09:12.284 the game and of how it's perceived. And on that note, Nate, 0:09:12.364 --> 0:09:15.724 do you want to switch gears and go a little 0:09:15.764 --> 0:09:19.444 bit into the game theory of a different arena of politics. 0:09:19.884 --> 0:09:24.724 So we are both New Yorkers and we just had 0:09:25.324 --> 0:09:29.844 a Democratic primary that is national news. That is rare 0:09:30.244 --> 0:09:33.964 for a primary, even in New York, but we had 0:09:34.004 --> 0:09:36.644 a very unexpected winner of the primary and zar on 0:09:36.684 --> 0:09:41.844 mom Donnie showing a lot of shifts in the Democratic Party, 0:09:41.964 --> 0:09:45.804 the Democratic Party base, and the potential the game theory 0:09:45.804 --> 0:09:49.324 for the Democratic Party going forward. This is one kind 0:09:49.364 --> 0:09:52.964 of potential blueprint should they choose to accept it. 0:09:53.364 --> 0:09:57.324 So one amazing thing is that younger voters actually turned 0:09:57.324 --> 0:10:00.484 out at a higher rate than older voters in a selection, 0:10:00.604 --> 0:10:06.444 which basically never happens in elections anywhere. Right, So he 0:10:06.524 --> 0:10:09.884 spoke very much the vernacular of vertical video and kind 0:10:09.884 --> 0:10:12.084 of how young people think about in general. He's a 0:10:12.164 --> 0:10:14.604 you know, charismatic guy that's kind of a New York 0:10:15.124 --> 0:10:18.284 archetype of this kind of multi ethnic hustler type, but 0:10:18.364 --> 0:10:21.004 friendly guy and obviously a smart ambitious guy. Right, It's 0:10:21.044 --> 0:10:23.724 like a type we recognize, I think have some appreciation 0:10:23.844 --> 0:10:26.964 for in New York. He's a problem member the Democratic 0:10:27.044 --> 0:10:32.444 Socialist of America. During the campaign emphasized affordability, cost of living, 0:10:32.884 --> 0:10:37.764 had tangible proposals on like free buses, rent freezes for 0:10:37.844 --> 0:10:42.844 certain types of buildings, right, city owned grocery stores, thirty 0:10:42.844 --> 0:10:45.804 dollars minimum wage. Right, So tangible focused on that, not 0:10:45.804 --> 0:10:48.604 culture worse stuff. And he winds up beating former governor 0:10:48.644 --> 0:10:51.564 and Dupomo, who in a terrible campaign but was very complacent. 0:10:51.604 --> 0:10:55.284 And I think this is a kind of a generational moment. 0:10:55.804 --> 0:10:58.524 I think it is, and I think it's very interesting 0:10:58.604 --> 0:11:03.204 to see that Momdani was actually able to get the 0:11:03.284 --> 0:11:08.364 voters who turned to Trump during the presidential election, that 0:11:08.524 --> 0:11:12.124 demographic to actually come out and vote for the Democrats. 0:11:12.164 --> 0:11:15.724 And there are you know, videos from him campaigning where 0:11:15.764 --> 0:11:19.404 he actually manages to talk to kind of that exact 0:11:19.564 --> 0:11:23.884 demographic that you know, voted for not just a different 0:11:23.924 --> 0:11:27.364 type of Democrat, but for Republicans in the presidential election. 0:11:27.484 --> 0:11:29.004 Yeah, I mean it's a little bit because you know, 0:11:29.364 --> 0:11:32.244 so we had comparatively high turnout about a million, probably 0:11:32.284 --> 0:11:33.804 one point oh five million, right. 0:11:33.724 --> 0:11:35.244 Yeah, this was our high start. 0:11:35.924 --> 0:11:36.484 But there are eight. 0:11:36.444 --> 0:11:39.004 Million people in New York City of whom three point 0:11:39.044 --> 0:11:41.284 three to three point four million are registered Democrats, right, 0:11:41.324 --> 0:11:44.204 so you're still only getting twenty five or thirty percent 0:11:44.684 --> 0:11:45.444 of the electorate. 0:11:46.164 --> 0:11:48.284 With that said, very broad based. 0:11:48.084 --> 0:11:51.684 Right, He won precincts even in Staten Island, which is 0:11:51.724 --> 0:11:53.804 kind of cuomo home turf. Not all of them, but 0:11:53.844 --> 0:11:54.244 some of them. 0:11:54.284 --> 0:11:54.484 Right. 0:11:54.844 --> 0:11:57.404 You know, Cuomo wins the Central Parkies, but you go 0:11:57.444 --> 0:11:59.084 even a couple of blocks into the Upper east Side, 0:11:59.084 --> 0:12:01.244 one of the more conserve neighborhoods, he started some mom 0:12:01.284 --> 0:12:04.764 don Aid precincts right there. So, you know, a very 0:12:04.764 --> 0:12:07.404 impressive performance. And of course we will be accused as 0:12:07.444 --> 0:12:09.924 the New Yorkers are being provincial. But New York is 0:12:10.004 --> 0:12:13.364 so big and so diverse, right that not in the 0:12:13.364 --> 0:12:16.204 same proportions, But we have like lots of Conservatives in 0:12:16.204 --> 0:12:17.804 New York are out number by liberals. We have lots 0:12:17.844 --> 0:12:21.564 of conservatives, right, We have every imaginable ethnic group and 0:12:21.844 --> 0:12:24.164 slice of racial demographic right. There are lots of working 0:12:24.164 --> 0:12:27.684 class people in New York. He mostly did well among 0:12:27.724 --> 0:12:30.924 the kind of upper middle class, you know, kind of 0:12:31.004 --> 0:12:33.804 white people. Basically, but there are those two, right, and 0:12:33.844 --> 0:12:36.684 did well enough? This is important, did well enough among 0:12:36.684 --> 0:12:39.124 the other groups, right, because sometimes can they say, Okay, well, 0:12:39.324 --> 0:12:41.924 we're not going to win any you know Democrats, Right, 0:12:41.964 --> 0:12:44.084 We're not going to win any working class white men, 0:12:44.164 --> 0:12:46.204 so just write them off, treat them as a zero, 0:12:46.364 --> 0:12:49.884 when actually, like getting thirty percent of working class non 0:12:49.964 --> 0:12:54.324 college men as opposed to twenty percent makes a big deal. Right, 0:12:54.444 --> 0:12:57.644 Trump in this past election got something like eighteen to 0:12:57.644 --> 0:13:01.164 twenty percent of the black vote, which is a significant minority. 0:13:01.284 --> 0:13:01.484 Right. 0:13:01.684 --> 0:13:06.484 Mitt Romney got four percent against Barack Obama in twenty twelve. Right, 0:13:06.564 --> 0:13:09.964 So going from four percent to twenty percent the population, 0:13:10.004 --> 0:13:12.124 you can do that math, right, that's quite a big swing. 0:13:12.244 --> 0:13:15.084 Actually, yeah it is, mate. Do you actually think that 0:13:15.484 --> 0:13:18.324 the election was at all affected by the fact that 0:13:18.364 --> 0:13:21.924 this was the second primary where ranked choice voting was 0:13:21.964 --> 0:13:26.124 actually in use, because that was something that people really were, 0:13:26.484 --> 0:13:27.964 you know, emphasizing during the. 0:13:27.884 --> 0:13:30.884 Candidate You guys know what rank choice voting or run off? 0:13:30.964 --> 0:13:32.524 Okay everyone. 0:13:33.964 --> 0:13:37.924 Festival, and we covered it for our listeners on the 0:13:37.924 --> 0:13:43.964 pod last week. So I mean, okay, so ranked choice 0:13:44.004 --> 0:13:48.364 voting means you have five choices, you rank your choices. 0:13:48.764 --> 0:13:53.004 If your first choice candidate is not one of the 0:13:53.044 --> 0:13:55.884 top two candidates, then your choice gets moved to your 0:13:55.924 --> 0:13:59.164 next ranked candidate, and so on down the line. 0:13:59.684 --> 0:14:02.764 Yeah, so Zoran seemed to understand this and Cuomo did not, 0:14:03.404 --> 0:14:07.804 yes one thing. He formed alliances with other candidates, right, 0:14:08.004 --> 0:14:11.644 especially Brad Lander, the third place candidate. Now, from a 0:14:11.644 --> 0:14:15.084 game theory standpoint, I don't think this is necessarily rational 0:14:15.124 --> 0:14:18.084 for Brad Lander, because like, if you're in third place 0:14:18.124 --> 0:14:19.684 and the other guy's in second place or maybe a 0:14:19.684 --> 0:14:23.124 first place, right, you don't necessarily want to help him out, right, 0:14:23.364 --> 0:14:25.764 But I think Brad Lander hates Andrew Cuomo's guts, has 0:14:25.764 --> 0:14:27.244 a lot of people do in New York and so 0:14:27.724 --> 0:14:32.844 and so there was that surround a very positive campaign 0:14:32.884 --> 0:14:37.284 and a substantive campaign, which is a change from how 0:14:37.324 --> 0:14:38.804 campaigns are often run. 0:14:38.844 --> 0:14:41.684 And I do think, like not uniquely the left in 0:14:41.724 --> 0:14:44.244 the United States. I mean, look at Trump also. 0:14:44.044 --> 0:14:46.084 In NAGA, right, but like there often is a lot 0:14:46.084 --> 0:14:49.804 of negativity, a lot of anxiety, right, and that wasn't 0:14:49.804 --> 0:14:52.804 what he was doing, right. He was a smart, substantive guy, 0:14:53.324 --> 0:14:57.284 you know, who literally walked the entire length of Manhattan, 0:14:57.364 --> 0:15:00.004 like the last day before the campaign wearing a suit, 0:15:00.044 --> 0:15:02.764 and so like did every podcast in the world. 0:15:02.804 --> 0:15:04.484 I think I've done. I've done like six podcasts in 0:15:04.484 --> 0:15:04.964 the day before. 0:15:05.004 --> 0:15:08.324 I think Zorn probably beat that record, but he very 0:15:08.404 --> 0:15:12.444 much earned it, and Cuomo was pure negative. We do 0:15:12.444 --> 0:15:16.164 have a general election still where Cuomo is running again, right, 0:15:16.524 --> 0:15:17.164 I don't know if that. 0:15:17.284 --> 0:15:19.444 And so is Sarah Adams maybe and Eric. 0:15:19.284 --> 0:15:22.404 Adams and come a mirror defective from your practic party 0:15:23.164 --> 0:15:26.204 friendly with Trump. Right, you also have the proper Republican nominee, 0:15:26.244 --> 0:15:29.164 Curtis Sliwa, who is a guy who founded The Guardian 0:15:29.204 --> 0:15:31.844 Angels and owns like fifty six cats or something like that. 0:15:32.244 --> 0:15:36.204 So yeah, yeah, So I'm also interested, you know, from 0:15:36.444 --> 0:15:38.724 from the point of view of like the game theory 0:15:38.764 --> 0:15:43.524 of the Democratic Party. Right, we have this election which 0:15:44.004 --> 0:15:47.204 seems like an anomaly but might not be, and a 0:15:47.204 --> 0:15:50.684 lot of the Democratic establishment don't want to embrace Zora 0:15:50.804 --> 0:15:53.564 Mom Donnie right there. They think that he is, you know, 0:15:53.644 --> 0:15:57.604 too fringe, right, that he is too radical, that some 0:15:57.644 --> 0:16:00.844 of his ideas are are too kind of too out there, 0:16:00.964 --> 0:16:03.964 and that they want to go safer, They want to 0:16:03.964 --> 0:16:06.044 go more middle of the road, which is what they 0:16:06.564 --> 0:16:09.644 were saying during the presidential election that they lost. 0:16:09.724 --> 0:16:11.364 Yeah, it's kind of it's kind of hard to be 0:16:11.444 --> 0:16:14.284 like an exciting centrist is part of the problem. 0:16:14.324 --> 0:16:16.844 You know, I don't know if Mayor Pete is exciting. 0:16:16.884 --> 0:16:19.964 I guess he's a well spoken person, for example. But like, 0:16:20.044 --> 0:16:22.844 sometimes more the energy comes from the left. Again, like 0:16:23.084 --> 0:16:27.364 to me, and look, I'm a University of Chicago economics major. 0:16:27.404 --> 0:16:30.084 I'm unapologetically kind of a neoliberal. 0:16:30.164 --> 0:16:33.124 Right, it does seem to me like, look, the left 0:16:33.124 --> 0:16:35.244 has not had the economic left has not had a 0:16:35.284 --> 0:16:38.924 lot of power in the United States recently, right, And 0:16:38.964 --> 0:16:40.884 so I've become more sympathetics because I'm like, well, we 0:16:40.884 --> 0:16:42.964 haven't made those mistakes. They will make mistakes, and it's 0:16:43.004 --> 0:16:45.964 very hard to govern a state like New York. It's 0:16:46.004 --> 0:16:48.724 particularly hard to govern New York City because New York 0:16:48.764 --> 0:16:52.124 State controls the taxation policy, a lot of the budget 0:16:52.364 --> 0:16:56.444 and things like that. They're always rivalries between Albany and 0:16:56.444 --> 0:16:59.564 and city Hall, right that without being different. 0:17:00.124 --> 0:17:02.884 Yeah, absolutely, And I also wonder, you know, if mom 0:17:02.924 --> 0:17:05.524 Donnie does get elected. Right, this is a big if. 0:17:05.604 --> 0:17:10.004 Still right, we're we're i mean twenty five percent, but 0:17:10.044 --> 0:17:13.844 seventy five percent, as we know, is not one hundred percent, 0:17:14.564 --> 0:17:17.764 as we very well know. So he but let's assume 0:17:17.804 --> 0:17:21.764 he gets elected. It's going to also be a very 0:17:21.764 --> 0:17:25.684 interesting shift where kind of candidates like Mom Dannie have been, 0:17:26.004 --> 0:17:28.044 you know, the underdog right, and it's been kind of 0:17:28.084 --> 0:17:31.204 the the underdog story of someone who is kind of 0:17:31.724 --> 0:17:35.164 young and kind of more radical and has those ideas 0:17:35.484 --> 0:17:38.524 and wins despite the odds. Now, what happens when you 0:17:38.604 --> 0:17:43.244 become the establishment right like that that underdog story shifts 0:17:43.444 --> 0:17:47.164 your incentives. We were talking just now in poker about incentives. 0:17:47.204 --> 0:17:51.684 Incentives matter in everything. Your incentives shift, right, the things 0:17:51.724 --> 0:17:55.124 that you were able to promise suddenly you have to 0:17:55.164 --> 0:17:58.404 make coalitions with other you know, with lobbyists, with other 0:17:58.484 --> 0:18:01.644 ruling factions, with you know, you need to face the 0:18:01.644 --> 0:18:04.764 realities of power. And so it's much easier to kind 0:18:04.804 --> 0:18:08.564 of be the idealist before you get elected. And once 0:18:08.644 --> 0:18:13.484 you're once you the establishment, that changes and you change. 0:18:13.604 --> 0:18:16.604 And so I'm going to be very very curious to 0:18:16.644 --> 0:18:20.164 see what happens and how that story kind of ends 0:18:20.244 --> 0:18:22.964 up shifting, and then what happens to the supporters kind 0:18:23.004 --> 0:18:25.044 of what all the downstream effects are going. 0:18:24.844 --> 0:18:27.164 To be Yeah, you're registered in Nevada. Now I am, Yeah, 0:18:27.164 --> 0:18:27.644 I'm in New York. 0:18:27.724 --> 0:18:30.484 This is the rarer time when I have a general 0:18:30.524 --> 0:18:34.444 election vote in New York that could plausibly matter. And 0:18:34.884 --> 0:18:37.324 you know, people like me who might be kind of 0:18:37.364 --> 0:18:40.204 on vaguely the center of the culturally center left and 0:18:40.284 --> 0:18:44.644 economically centered something right, A lot of people are are 0:18:45.644 --> 0:18:48.364 concerned about him, but like, to me, it's a bit 0:18:48.444 --> 0:18:52.124 like if you're picking a founder for a startup, right, 0:18:52.124 --> 0:18:57.444 you're kind of going more off like the rod intelligence 0:18:57.484 --> 0:19:00.804 and talent and work ethic, maybe more than like the 0:19:00.804 --> 0:19:04.204 particular program or platform, right, or at least it's kind 0:19:04.204 --> 0:19:06.924 of like what I'm telling myself potentially, And the fact 0:19:06.924 --> 0:19:10.364 that he's a lot of dexterity in talking about policy, right, 0:19:10.404 --> 0:19:12.484 He went on, like the Odds odd Lots podcast, which 0:19:12.484 --> 0:19:15.404 is Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway, which is kind of 0:19:15.404 --> 0:19:17.724 in the same family as Risky Business, right, and like 0:19:18.244 --> 0:19:22.404 talking a lot of wankery about policy and things like that, Right, 0:19:22.444 --> 0:19:26.804 And like I like politicians who who are elected officials 0:19:27.124 --> 0:19:28.644 and are responsive to. 0:19:28.644 --> 0:19:30.244 Some degree to fulblic opinion. 0:19:30.244 --> 0:19:33.204 I think it's how democracy should should function, right, and 0:19:33.244 --> 0:19:35.204 he can say here are my priors. I'll stay for 0:19:35.244 --> 0:19:37.924 the working class. I don't like capitalism all that much. Right, 0:19:37.964 --> 0:19:40.324 but he's not proposing anything too radical and like and 0:19:40.364 --> 0:19:43.604 it's not angry. You know, Bernie Sanders understood that. 0:19:43.844 --> 0:19:44.044 Right. 0:19:45.084 --> 0:19:47.604 The one moment when the Sanders campaign got a little 0:19:47.604 --> 0:19:50.764 bit angry was toward toward twenty twenty when they won 0:19:50.804 --> 0:19:53.164 the first couple of primaries and they were instead of 0:19:53.644 --> 0:19:55.604 bending the knee to the Timparty Party. Remember going to 0:19:55.604 --> 0:19:58.964 a rally in Nevada, Bernie wound up winning basically three 0:19:58.964 --> 0:20:01.444 states in a row. Iowa was disputed between him and 0:20:01.524 --> 0:20:03.644 their pete, So we won't get into that, right, but 0:20:03.684 --> 0:20:06.524 two and a half out of three, right, and he 0:20:06.564 --> 0:20:10.044 gave species that were like, yeah, well screwed you Democrats establishment, 0:20:10.124 --> 0:20:12.684 right now, you have to kiss my ring. And there 0:20:12.724 --> 0:20:14.444 they still had leverage, right, they still had leverage. They 0:20:14.484 --> 0:20:16.804 had the leverage to have Jim Clyburn and Amy club 0:20:16.884 --> 0:20:19.884 Ashar Mayor Repete everybody else rally behind. 0:20:19.724 --> 0:20:22.284 Joe Biden successfully for one term. 0:20:22.364 --> 0:20:23.644 You know, whether that was a good decision of a 0:20:23.644 --> 0:20:25.884 long run or not, we'll be I think debated, but like, 0:20:26.124 --> 0:20:27.564 but yeah, you don't want to like rub it in 0:20:27.604 --> 0:20:30.764 someone's face when they still have chips on the table, 0:20:30.804 --> 0:20:32.924 so to speak, and so and so, you know, it 0:20:32.924 --> 0:20:36.724 would behooves around to understand there's still a losible. We're 0:20:36.724 --> 0:20:39.164