1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:23,450 Speaker 1: Pushkin a warning before we start. This cautionary tale discusses 2 00:00:23,530 --> 00:00:27,210 Speaker 1: death by suicide. If you're suffering emotional distress or if 3 00:00:27,250 --> 00:00:31,250 Speaker 1: you're having suicidal thoughts, support is available, for example, from 4 00:00:31,290 --> 00:00:34,570 Speaker 1: the nine eight to eight Suicide and Crisis Lifeline in 5 00:00:34,650 --> 00:00:42,570 Speaker 1: the US. Funeral director Ron Fleet is driving his van 6 00:00:42,650 --> 00:00:46,450 Speaker 1: to a hospital in Catherine de Barnes, a quiet village 7 00:00:46,490 --> 00:00:51,250 Speaker 1: in the countryside near Birmingham, England. Catherine de Barnes is tiny, 8 00:00:51,570 --> 00:00:54,810 Speaker 1: just a few dozen houses and a nineteenth century pub. 9 00:00:55,410 --> 00:00:57,690 Speaker 1: To get to the hospital, you drive half a mile 10 00:00:57,730 --> 00:01:00,850 Speaker 1: out of the village down a narrow lane flanked by 11 00:01:00,930 --> 00:01:04,930 Speaker 1: hedgerows and fields. The hospital is a big, old building 12 00:01:05,170 --> 00:01:09,490 Speaker 1: and twenty acres of grounds. The year is nineteen seven eight. 13 00:01:10,650 --> 00:01:13,090 Speaker 1: You might expect this to be a journey. Ron Fleet 14 00:01:13,210 --> 00:01:16,730 Speaker 1: knows well. Funeral directors do tend to become familiar with 15 00:01:16,770 --> 00:01:20,930 Speaker 1: their local hospitals. But no. The hospital in the village 16 00:01:20,970 --> 00:01:24,610 Speaker 1: of Catherine de Barnes hasn't seen a death for years. 17 00:01:25,330 --> 00:01:30,010 Speaker 1: It hasn't seen a patient for years. It's an isolation hospital, 18 00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:34,490 Speaker 1: kept empty but ready just in case someone gets some 19 00:01:34,730 --> 00:01:39,770 Speaker 1: appalling infectious disease that requires them to be confined safely 20 00:01:39,930 --> 00:01:45,490 Speaker 1: away from the public. Year after year after year, the 21 00:01:45,570 --> 00:01:50,290 Speaker 1: hospital's husband and wife caretakers have kept award with sixteen 22 00:01:50,370 --> 00:01:57,210 Speaker 1: beds on constant standby, ready for patients who mercifully never came. 23 00:01:59,170 --> 00:02:03,730 Speaker 1: But now they have had a patient and she's died. 24 00:02:05,650 --> 00:02:08,810 Speaker 1: Ron Fleet assumes that the body he's come to collect 25 00:02:09,090 --> 00:02:12,450 Speaker 1: will be in a morgue or a fridge. It isn't. 26 00:02:13,410 --> 00:02:16,530 Speaker 1: He's directed to a garage some distance away from the 27 00:02:16,570 --> 00:02:23,130 Speaker 1: main hospital building. In the garage, he finds a transparent 28 00:02:23,410 --> 00:02:29,250 Speaker 1: body bag. It's clear that this woman must have suffered terribly. 29 00:02:30,130 --> 00:02:34,330 Speaker 1: Her body and face are covered with saws, scars, and 30 00:02:34,570 --> 00:02:39,050 Speaker 1: fluid filled pustules, and the body's on the floor, not 31 00:02:39,210 --> 00:02:42,290 Speaker 1: a trolley. How's he going to get it into his van? 32 00:02:43,530 --> 00:02:46,730 Speaker 1: He goes back to the main building to ask someone 33 00:02:46,770 --> 00:02:52,370 Speaker 1: to help him. Nobody seems keen. Fleet opens the back 34 00:02:52,410 --> 00:02:57,090 Speaker 1: doors of his van and heaves the body inside. Some 35 00:02:57,170 --> 00:03:02,370 Speaker 1: kind of liquid sloshes around inside the transparent body bag. 36 00:03:03,730 --> 00:03:07,610 Speaker 1: I really hope this bag doesn't split, thinks ron Fleet. 37 00:03:09,410 --> 00:03:40,330 Speaker 1: I'm Tim Harford, and you're listening to cautionary tales. By 38 00:03:40,370 --> 00:03:44,130 Speaker 1: the nineteen sixties, smallpox had become rare enough in England 39 00:03:44,210 --> 00:03:48,930 Speaker 1: that when someone got it, it was often misdiagnosed. In 40 00:03:49,010 --> 00:03:52,930 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty six, for example, a young man called Tony 41 00:03:53,130 --> 00:03:56,970 Speaker 1: became ill with what seemed like flu. Tony called in 42 00:03:57,010 --> 00:04:00,210 Speaker 1: sick to his job as a medical photographer at the 43 00:04:00,290 --> 00:04:03,330 Speaker 1: University of Birmingham and spent a few days in bed 44 00:04:03,850 --> 00:04:09,210 Speaker 1: with aches and a fever. Then came the rash, when 45 00:04:09,250 --> 00:04:12,250 Speaker 1: he thought he'd better get a doctor to look at it. 46 00:04:12,330 --> 00:04:15,570 Speaker 1: Maybe a sweat rash, said the doctor. You'll have been 47 00:04:15,610 --> 00:04:18,530 Speaker 1: sweating with that fever, or it could be a reaction 48 00:04:18,650 --> 00:04:22,570 Speaker 1: to the medicine you've been taking. Anyway, nothing to worry about. 49 00:04:24,130 --> 00:04:27,450 Speaker 1: Tony starts to feel better, well enough to resume his 50 00:04:27,570 --> 00:04:31,770 Speaker 1: social life. He needs to freshen up a bit, so 51 00:04:31,810 --> 00:04:35,090 Speaker 1: he borrows his dad's raisor to shave. He's got to 52 00:04:35,090 --> 00:04:38,010 Speaker 1: be careful as he's still got that rash on his face, 53 00:04:38,170 --> 00:04:44,370 Speaker 1: and he accidentally slices through one of the pustules. He 54 00:04:44,450 --> 00:04:46,930 Speaker 1: goes to the pub with his dad and his girlfriend. 55 00:04:47,570 --> 00:04:53,330 Speaker 1: The barman winces sympathetically nasty attack of acne. A week 56 00:04:53,370 --> 00:04:56,290 Speaker 1: and a bit later, Tony's dad gets a spot on 57 00:04:56,410 --> 00:05:01,210 Speaker 1: his face where he's nicked himself with the razor Tony borrowed. 58 00:05:02,250 --> 00:05:06,650 Speaker 1: He then gets a fever and more spots. An old 59 00:05:06,730 --> 00:05:09,050 Speaker 1: man who'd been drinking in the pub gets hilled too, 60 00:05:09,090 --> 00:05:14,490 Speaker 1: who he infects his teenage grandson, who infects a hitchhiker 61 00:05:14,530 --> 00:05:17,090 Speaker 1: he meets at a roadside cafe while on a trip 62 00:05:17,130 --> 00:05:20,690 Speaker 1: to the beach. A couple of hours drive away. The 63 00:05:20,770 --> 00:05:23,410 Speaker 1: hitchhiker gets home to another part of the country and 64 00:05:23,530 --> 00:05:28,170 Speaker 1: infects his mum. Various people go to doctors who say, 65 00:05:28,530 --> 00:05:33,610 Speaker 1: probably flu or that looks like chicken pox. It's eight 66 00:05:34,010 --> 00:05:38,330 Speaker 1: weeks before someone sees a doctor who seen smallpox before 67 00:05:39,130 --> 00:05:45,970 Speaker 1: and says, hmm, let's test for that. There are two 68 00:05:45,970 --> 00:05:50,370 Speaker 1: types of smallpox. Veriola major was the one you really 69 00:05:50,410 --> 00:05:55,090 Speaker 1: didn't want. It killed about thirty percent of those it infected. 70 00:05:55,970 --> 00:06:00,330 Speaker 1: Veriola minor was much less serious, but still no joke. 71 00:06:00,810 --> 00:06:06,250 Speaker 1: Its fatality rate was one percent, comparable to COVID. Once 72 00:06:06,330 --> 00:06:10,170 Speaker 1: the tests confirmed that Variola minor is at large, the 73 00:06:10,250 --> 00:06:14,330 Speaker 1: medical authorities start to put the pieces together. They find 74 00:06:14,690 --> 00:06:20,290 Speaker 1: seventy three people who've been infected. Luckily, nobody's died. The 75 00:06:20,330 --> 00:06:23,690 Speaker 1: medics trace back the roots of infection, and they seemed 76 00:06:23,730 --> 00:06:30,690 Speaker 1: to converge on young Tony. But where had Tony got it? Well, 77 00:06:30,810 --> 00:06:33,650 Speaker 1: smallpox might have been rare in England at the time 78 00:06:33,930 --> 00:06:37,450 Speaker 1: that it was still common enough in the Indian subcontinent. 79 00:06:38,210 --> 00:06:41,450 Speaker 1: The last outbreak of small pox in Britain four years 80 00:06:41,490 --> 00:06:45,010 Speaker 1: earlier turned out to have started with people recently arrived 81 00:06:45,010 --> 00:06:49,650 Speaker 1: from Karachi. Birmingham had a high rate of immigration from 82 00:06:49,650 --> 00:06:53,690 Speaker 1: the subcontinent. Tony enjoyed a varied social life with friends 83 00:06:53,730 --> 00:06:58,450 Speaker 1: from all backgrounds. It was perfectly possible, as Tony's own 84 00:06:58,530 --> 00:07:01,410 Speaker 1: case showed, to go out on the town while not 85 00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:06,410 Speaker 1: realizing you're infectious with a mild case of Veriola minor. 86 00:07:07,290 --> 00:07:10,050 Speaker 1: Most likely Tony had picked it up from someone he 87 00:07:10,050 --> 00:07:14,690 Speaker 1: had met at a party. The building at the University 88 00:07:14,730 --> 00:07:18,370 Speaker 1: of Birmingham where Tony worked as a medical photographer, also 89 00:07:18,530 --> 00:07:23,450 Speaker 1: housed a laboratory that did research on smallpox. The lab 90 00:07:23,610 --> 00:07:27,010 Speaker 1: was run by a man called Henry Bedson, a well 91 00:07:27,050 --> 00:07:32,930 Speaker 1: respected smallpox expert. Bedson had been cultivating strains of Variola 92 00:07:33,090 --> 00:07:38,690 Speaker 1: minor just over a week before Tony's symptoms started. The 93 00:07:38,850 --> 00:07:43,530 Speaker 1: incubation period for smallpox is typically between a week and 94 00:07:43,610 --> 00:07:49,930 Speaker 1: a fortnight. Quite a coincidence. Was it just a coincidence? 95 00:07:50,890 --> 00:07:54,890 Speaker 1: Nobody seemed too worried. At the time, the university didn't 96 00:07:54,930 --> 00:07:58,290 Speaker 1: feel the need to hold an investigation. Tony's office wasn't 97 00:07:58,330 --> 00:08:01,330 Speaker 1: even on the same floor as the smallpox lab, and 98 00:08:01,530 --> 00:08:06,090 Speaker 1: everyone knew smallpox didn't spread that easily. It needed both 99 00:08:06,330 --> 00:08:11,330 Speaker 1: close personal contact and a dose bad luck. Think about 100 00:08:11,330 --> 00:08:15,010 Speaker 1: the outbreak Tony started. Yes, it passed it on to 101 00:08:15,050 --> 00:08:17,770 Speaker 1: a few people, but he met many more who didn't 102 00:08:17,770 --> 00:08:22,850 Speaker 1: get infected. In eight weeks, only seventy three people had 103 00:08:22,850 --> 00:08:26,570 Speaker 1: picked it up. The idea that virus particles might have 104 00:08:26,930 --> 00:08:30,890 Speaker 1: found their way out of Bedson's lab and wandered around 105 00:08:30,930 --> 00:08:34,490 Speaker 1: the building, missing everyone else, until they met Tony on 106 00:08:34,570 --> 00:08:42,290 Speaker 1: the floor above seemed fantastical. Still, the coincidence was striking. 107 00:08:43,010 --> 00:08:46,210 Speaker 1: It occurred to Bedson's boss, the head of the department, 108 00:08:46,570 --> 00:08:50,490 Speaker 1: that he should probably get an outside opinion. He asked 109 00:08:50,530 --> 00:08:54,210 Speaker 1: another smallpox expert to visit the university and check that 110 00:08:54,290 --> 00:09:01,290 Speaker 1: Bedson was taking adequate precautions. All looks perfectly standard, said 111 00:09:01,290 --> 00:09:07,690 Speaker 1: the expert, Same as any other smallpox lab. By nineteen 112 00:09:07,730 --> 00:09:11,930 Speaker 1: seventy eight, twelve years later, Henry Bedson has moved up 113 00:09:11,930 --> 00:09:14,850 Speaker 1: in the world. He's still at the University of Birmingham, 114 00:09:14,850 --> 00:09:18,770 Speaker 1: but he's now the head of Department of Medical Microbiology. 115 00:09:19,490 --> 00:09:23,410 Speaker 1: He's forty eight years old, married with three young kids. 116 00:09:24,050 --> 00:09:30,090 Speaker 1: He looks like a stereotypical academic scientist, bald, softly spoken, 117 00:09:30,570 --> 00:09:35,490 Speaker 1: tweed jacket. With his new departmental duties, Bedson no longer 118 00:09:35,530 --> 00:09:38,210 Speaker 1: has time to be so hands on in his old 119 00:09:38,290 --> 00:09:42,570 Speaker 1: smallpox lab, but he has a PhD student doing research, 120 00:09:43,170 --> 00:09:48,130 Speaker 1: and that research is important. In those twelve years, much 121 00:09:48,170 --> 00:09:53,210 Speaker 1: has changed. Smallpox is no longer common on the Indian subcontinent, 122 00:09:53,890 --> 00:09:58,530 Speaker 1: or indeed anywhere. It's been wiped off the face of 123 00:09:58,570 --> 00:10:02,370 Speaker 1: the earth. Teams of workers led by the World Health 124 00:10:02,490 --> 00:10:06,370 Speaker 1: Organization have been visiting the furthest flung villages of the 125 00:10:06,370 --> 00:10:11,690 Speaker 1: world's poorest countries, persuading people to be vaccinated, tracing contacts 126 00:10:11,770 --> 00:10:15,890 Speaker 1: where they find a case. Henry Bedson himself has been 127 00:10:15,930 --> 00:10:20,050 Speaker 1: involved the who sent him to Afghanistan and Pakistan as 128 00:10:20,170 --> 00:10:24,290 Speaker 1: part of an expert committee, and all that hard work 129 00:10:24,730 --> 00:10:28,770 Speaker 1: has succeeded. It's been eight months now since the last 130 00:10:28,850 --> 00:10:33,250 Speaker 1: report of a case of smallpox anywhere in the world. 131 00:10:33,890 --> 00:10:37,250 Speaker 1: That case was in Somalia. It looks likely to go 132 00:10:37,330 --> 00:10:41,490 Speaker 1: down in history as the very last time any human 133 00:10:41,890 --> 00:10:47,530 Speaker 1: gets this terrible disease. Ever, but what if there was 134 00:10:47,570 --> 00:10:52,370 Speaker 1: a way smallpox might come back? What if there was 135 00:10:52,410 --> 00:10:57,090 Speaker 1: a similar virus lurking in some population of wild animals, 136 00:10:57,810 --> 00:11:02,370 Speaker 1: liable to cross over to humans at any time? Smallpox, 137 00:11:02,570 --> 00:11:06,890 Speaker 1: after all, like many human diseases, originally came from animals, 138 00:11:07,690 --> 00:11:13,650 Speaker 1: maybe camels, gerbils. It's not entirely clear, and two recent 139 00:11:13,730 --> 00:11:19,330 Speaker 1: discoveries were troubling Henry Bedson. Researchers in the Netherlands and 140 00:11:19,490 --> 00:11:24,050 Speaker 1: Russia had found a virus that looked very much like smallpox, 141 00:11:24,650 --> 00:11:29,730 Speaker 1: lurking in samples taken from wild monkeys and rodents. This 142 00:11:30,050 --> 00:11:35,770 Speaker 1: new mystery virus had become known as whitepox. But what 143 00:11:36,050 --> 00:11:40,170 Speaker 1: was whitepox? How exactly did it differ from the various 144 00:11:40,210 --> 00:11:45,170 Speaker 1: strains of Variola major? Might it pose a threat to humans? 145 00:11:46,450 --> 00:11:50,250 Speaker 1: These were the questions Henry Bedson had his PhD student 146 00:11:50,370 --> 00:11:55,290 Speaker 1: investigating that Bedson had a problem because the wighthow was 147 00:11:55,330 --> 00:12:00,370 Speaker 1: worried about another way smallpox might come back. What if 148 00:12:00,410 --> 00:12:04,290 Speaker 1: it leaked from a lab? Plenty of labs around the world, 149 00:12:04,530 --> 00:12:09,090 Speaker 1: like Bedson's, were working on smallpox viruses. The wh show 150 00:12:09,290 --> 00:12:13,690 Speaker 1: wanted to restrict all future research to just a handful 151 00:12:13,770 --> 00:12:18,090 Speaker 1: of labs that would meet more stringent new safety standards. 152 00:12:18,490 --> 00:12:23,170 Speaker 1: Bedson's lab was not on the list. Henry Bedson wrote 153 00:12:23,170 --> 00:12:25,890 Speaker 1: to the World Health Organization, Can I have a few 154 00:12:25,930 --> 00:12:29,490 Speaker 1: more months to finish up my white box research? My 155 00:12:29,570 --> 00:12:32,210 Speaker 1: lab's been scaling down. I promise I'll be done by 156 00:12:32,210 --> 00:12:37,050 Speaker 1: the end of the year. Bedson was arguably being economical 157 00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:40,650 Speaker 1: with the truth. The lab had scaled down compared to 158 00:12:40,730 --> 00:12:44,210 Speaker 1: a few years ago. It had just one PhD student now, 159 00:12:44,650 --> 00:12:47,370 Speaker 1: but in the hope of completing his white box work 160 00:12:47,530 --> 00:12:51,770 Speaker 1: before his lab had to close, Bedson had just scaled 161 00:12:52,010 --> 00:12:56,250 Speaker 1: up his stocks of smallpox, taking delivery of twenty two 162 00:12:56,690 --> 00:13:01,210 Speaker 1: new samples of different strains of the virus. The World 163 00:13:01,290 --> 00:13:06,450 Speaker 1: Health Organization wrote back, okay, then just until the end 164 00:13:06,490 --> 00:13:11,490 Speaker 1: of the year. Bedson was relieved, and then one evening 165 00:13:11,490 --> 00:13:15,650 Speaker 1: in August at home, his phone rang. It was a 166 00:13:15,690 --> 00:13:21,810 Speaker 1: doctor he knew, calling from the hospital. Henry said the voice, 167 00:13:22,410 --> 00:13:27,570 Speaker 1: I've got a patient here with a suspected case of smallpox. 168 00:13:30,210 --> 00:13:44,250 Speaker 1: Cautionary tales will be back after the break. By nineteen 169 00:13:44,330 --> 00:13:47,250 Speaker 1: seventy eight, young Tony has left his job as the 170 00:13:47,250 --> 00:13:50,730 Speaker 1: medical photographer at the University of Birmingham. There's a new 171 00:13:50,770 --> 00:13:55,050 Speaker 1: photographer now working on the floor above Henry Bedson's smallpox lab. 172 00:13:55,730 --> 00:13:59,850 Speaker 1: Her name is Janet Parker and she's forty years old. 173 00:14:00,570 --> 00:14:04,890 Speaker 1: On the second Friday in August, Janet begins to feel unwell. 174 00:14:05,770 --> 00:14:08,290 Speaker 1: A few days later, she starts to get a rash. 175 00:14:09,130 --> 00:14:13,770 Speaker 1: She sees a doctor chicken pox. She also has sostiitis, 176 00:14:14,170 --> 00:14:18,050 Speaker 1: and the doctor prescribes antibiotics for that. A couple of 177 00:14:18,090 --> 00:14:21,970 Speaker 1: days later, the rash is much worse. She sees a 178 00:14:22,050 --> 00:14:27,570 Speaker 1: second doctor, maybe an allergic reaction to the antibiotic. He 179 00:14:27,650 --> 00:14:32,970 Speaker 1: prescribes a different antibiotic. Days go by and Janet's condition 180 00:14:33,090 --> 00:14:38,490 Speaker 1: gets worse and worse. She sees a third doctor. This 181 00:14:38,610 --> 00:14:42,170 Speaker 1: doctor calls the infectious diseases unit at the hospital. I 182 00:14:42,170 --> 00:14:46,210 Speaker 1: don't think it's chicken pox, she says. But I'm stumped. 183 00:14:46,530 --> 00:14:50,170 Speaker 1: Can one of your infectious disease specialists visit her home 184 00:14:50,210 --> 00:14:53,770 Speaker 1: and take a look. We don't do home visits, say 185 00:14:53,810 --> 00:14:59,570 Speaker 1: the hospital. That's the policy. Well, let it's smallpox. No 186 00:14:59,690 --> 00:15:02,570 Speaker 1: chance of that, says Janet's doctor. She hasn't been out 187 00:15:02,610 --> 00:15:07,250 Speaker 1: of the country for five years. The hospital will send 188 00:15:07,250 --> 00:15:11,610 Speaker 1: an ambulance and it is admitted to the infectious diseases unit. 189 00:15:12,530 --> 00:15:16,090 Speaker 1: The specialist there takes a close look at Janet and 190 00:15:16,210 --> 00:15:21,490 Speaker 1: makes some notes. Parsicular rash, most pronounced on the face, 191 00:15:22,370 --> 00:15:28,650 Speaker 1: lesions half a centimeter, white fluid, more advanced lesions with 192 00:15:28,850 --> 00:15:35,410 Speaker 1: darkened centers, no lesions in the mouth, febrile question mark 193 00:15:36,330 --> 00:15:44,930 Speaker 1: drug reaction, then question mark, question mark, question mark variola. 194 00:15:45,450 --> 00:15:50,810 Speaker 1: The doctor consults her colleagues it can't be smallpox, but 195 00:15:50,850 --> 00:15:54,610 Speaker 1: they're sufficiently puzzled to want to rule it out. The 196 00:15:54,650 --> 00:15:58,370 Speaker 1: trouble is none of them have experienced with smallpox. They've 197 00:15:58,370 --> 00:16:01,890 Speaker 1: only seen it in textbooks. But they still have access 198 00:16:01,930 --> 00:16:06,970 Speaker 1: to a designated regional smallpox consultant, a doctor who's worked 199 00:16:06,970 --> 00:16:11,010 Speaker 1: in Bangladesh and knows the disease. They find his number. 200 00:16:12,410 --> 00:16:15,410 Speaker 1: It's seven point thirty in the evening, and the regional 201 00:16:15,450 --> 00:16:18,090 Speaker 1: smallpox consultant is about to open a bottle of wine 202 00:16:18,130 --> 00:16:21,650 Speaker 1: at home when his phone rings. He doesn't get many 203 00:16:21,730 --> 00:16:25,610 Speaker 1: calls like this, maybe once a year, but he doesn't 204 00:16:25,610 --> 00:16:28,170 Speaker 1: mind because he gets a fee for every call out. 205 00:16:29,010 --> 00:16:31,530 Speaker 1: So far, it's always been either a bad case of 206 00:16:31,610 --> 00:16:35,690 Speaker 1: chicken pox or an allergic reaction to a drug. He 207 00:16:35,730 --> 00:16:40,050 Speaker 1: puts his wine aside, drives to the hospital, finds Janet's 208 00:16:40,130 --> 00:16:47,690 Speaker 1: room and that looks like smallpox. But who is this 209 00:16:47,730 --> 00:16:52,330 Speaker 1: woman and how on earth has she got smallpox in Birmingham, 210 00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:56,730 Speaker 1: eight months after the world's last recorded case in Somalia. 211 00:16:57,730 --> 00:17:01,130 Speaker 1: The doctors fill him in on Janet's details. She works 212 00:17:01,170 --> 00:17:05,330 Speaker 1: as a medical photographer at the University of Birmingham. Hm. 213 00:17:06,410 --> 00:17:10,130 Speaker 1: The consultant, of course, knows all about the smallpox lab 214 00:17:10,330 --> 00:17:17,810 Speaker 1: at the university. It'd better call Henry Bedson, Henry, he says. 215 00:17:18,090 --> 00:17:21,930 Speaker 1: When Bedson answers the phone, I've got a patient here 216 00:17:22,610 --> 00:17:27,690 Speaker 1: with a suspected case of smallpox. It's a lady who 217 00:17:27,730 --> 00:17:32,930 Speaker 1: works as a photographer at the medical school at the 218 00:17:32,970 --> 00:17:37,770 Speaker 1: other end of the line. Henry Bedson is too stunned 219 00:17:37,930 --> 00:17:42,050 Speaker 1: to speak. The consultant takes a sample of the fluid 220 00:17:42,130 --> 00:17:46,250 Speaker 1: from Janet's postules and drives to the medical school to 221 00:17:46,330 --> 00:17:51,610 Speaker 1: meet Henry Bedson. Together the two men open up the 222 00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:56,850 Speaker 1: lab and put the slide under the microscope. Bedson looks 223 00:17:56,890 --> 00:18:01,010 Speaker 1: first without a word. He moves aside to let the 224 00:18:01,050 --> 00:18:07,090 Speaker 1: consultant see. There's no doubt it's smallpox. They'll need to 225 00:18:07,170 --> 00:18:10,650 Speaker 1: run more tests to confirm that its very ola major 226 00:18:11,330 --> 00:18:16,650 Speaker 1: and find out exactly which strain. Bedson sets the tests 227 00:18:16,690 --> 00:18:21,570 Speaker 1: in motion. The regional smallpox consultant picks up the phone 228 00:18:22,370 --> 00:18:25,610 Speaker 1: and makes the call that he's never had to make before, 229 00:18:27,970 --> 00:18:36,570 Speaker 1: open up the isolation hospital at Catherine de Barnes. As 230 00:18:36,610 --> 00:18:40,730 Speaker 1: the fictional Dr Duffenschmertz might put it, if I had 231 00:18:40,770 --> 00:18:43,730 Speaker 1: a nickel for every time a medical photographer at the 232 00:18:43,810 --> 00:18:48,730 Speaker 1: University of Birmingham got smallpox, I'd have two nichols, which 233 00:18:48,890 --> 00:18:52,810 Speaker 1: isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice. 234 00:18:53,930 --> 00:18:57,570 Speaker 1: Back in nineteen sixty six, when Tony got smallpox, it 235 00:18:57,650 --> 00:19:00,410 Speaker 1: had seemed ludicrous to think that the virus might have 236 00:19:00,450 --> 00:19:04,090 Speaker 1: gone walk about from Henry Bedson's lab around the building. 237 00:19:04,970 --> 00:19:08,530 Speaker 1: But soon after, in nineteen seventy, a young man in 238 00:19:08,570 --> 00:19:11,650 Speaker 1: Germany developed fever and a rash a week and a 239 00:19:11,690 --> 00:19:15,130 Speaker 1: half after flying home from a backpacking trip to Karachi. 240 00:19:15,970 --> 00:19:20,530 Speaker 1: With that travel history, German doctors suspected smallpox right away. 241 00:19:21,170 --> 00:19:27,610 Speaker 1: They put the man in strict isolation. Still, somehow, seventeen 242 00:19:27,890 --> 00:19:33,130 Speaker 1: other people in the hospital developed smallpox, including patients two 243 00:19:33,130 --> 00:19:39,770 Speaker 1: floors distant who never left their room. How One explanation 244 00:19:39,970 --> 00:19:44,170 Speaker 1: was that smallpox might be more capable of airborne transmission 245 00:19:44,250 --> 00:19:48,050 Speaker 1: than had previously been thought. Investigators set off a smoke 246 00:19:48,090 --> 00:19:50,610 Speaker 1: device in the room where the man had been and 247 00:19:50,770 --> 00:19:55,250 Speaker 1: tracked how the smoke wafted into the corridors, up the stairwells, 248 00:19:55,370 --> 00:20:00,130 Speaker 1: and into other rooms. The results mapped pretty well onto 249 00:20:00,130 --> 00:20:05,690 Speaker 1: the pattern of infections at the University of Birmingham. Henry 250 00:20:05,690 --> 00:20:09,450 Speaker 1: Bedson and his colleagues stand in the courtyard ou side 251 00:20:09,450 --> 00:20:13,650 Speaker 1: the medical school. They're checking how close the photographer's office 252 00:20:13,850 --> 00:20:18,330 Speaker 1: is to the smallpox lab. Not very close. They're at 253 00:20:18,410 --> 00:20:22,810 Speaker 1: least forty feet apart. If the virus particles wafted through 254 00:20:22,850 --> 00:20:26,170 Speaker 1: the air to Janet, it's far from obvious what route 255 00:20:26,210 --> 00:20:31,530 Speaker 1: they might have taken. By now, various authorities are competing 256 00:20:31,650 --> 00:20:35,970 Speaker 1: to take the situation in hand. One insists that everyone 257 00:20:36,010 --> 00:20:39,370 Speaker 1: who has anything to do with the smallpox lab has 258 00:20:39,450 --> 00:20:45,170 Speaker 1: to go into quarantine, including Henry Bedson. That seems like overkill. 259 00:20:45,730 --> 00:20:49,730 Speaker 1: Bedsen's been thoroughly vaccinated, and if it'd got smallpox at 260 00:20:49,730 --> 00:20:53,090 Speaker 1: the same time as Janet Parker, he'd have known about 261 00:20:53,090 --> 00:20:57,810 Speaker 1: it long before now. Still, though Bedson's told stay at 262 00:20:57,850 --> 00:21:03,250 Speaker 1: home you can't be too careful. Another authority insists that 263 00:21:03,290 --> 00:21:07,930 Speaker 1: the smallpox lab be immediately fumigated to kill any virus 264 00:21:07,970 --> 00:21:12,610 Speaker 1: particles that might be Only afterwards that they realize this 265 00:21:12,730 --> 00:21:16,690 Speaker 1: means they've killed the samples from Janet Parker that Bedson 266 00:21:16,730 --> 00:21:20,650 Speaker 1: had been testing to identify which strain of smallpox she'd got. 267 00:21:21,530 --> 00:21:25,690 Speaker 1: That Bette get another sample while they still can. At 268 00:21:25,730 --> 00:21:29,810 Speaker 1: the hospital in Catherine de Barnes. Janet is still just 269 00:21:29,930 --> 00:21:34,250 Speaker 1: about clinging to life. They call the smallpox lab at 270 00:21:34,290 --> 00:21:37,570 Speaker 1: the University of Liverpool and ask one of the professors 271 00:21:37,610 --> 00:21:40,370 Speaker 1: to drive the one hundred miles to Birmingham to visit 272 00:21:40,490 --> 00:21:44,570 Speaker 1: Janet and take samples back for testing. We'll arrange a 273 00:21:44,610 --> 00:21:49,250 Speaker 1: police escort, of course, they say. As the professor leaves 274 00:21:49,290 --> 00:21:52,250 Speaker 1: the motorway near Birmingham, he's met by a policeman on 275 00:21:52,290 --> 00:21:55,370 Speaker 1: a motorcycle who leads him through the city and down 276 00:21:55,490 --> 00:21:59,290 Speaker 1: the quiet country lanes to the twenty acre site of 277 00:21:59,330 --> 00:22:03,290 Speaker 1: the hospital at Catherine de Barnes. The policeman thinks his 278 00:22:03,410 --> 00:22:09,450 Speaker 1: job is done and says farewell. The professor is confused, Wait, 279 00:22:09,690 --> 00:22:13,010 Speaker 1: you're leaving me here, but surely the whole point of 280 00:22:13,050 --> 00:22:15,810 Speaker 1: a police escort is to get me safely back to 281 00:22:15,890 --> 00:22:19,930 Speaker 1: my lab when I'll have highly contagious samples of smallpox 282 00:22:19,930 --> 00:22:23,930 Speaker 1: in my car. Now, the Policeman's confused. Nobody's told me 283 00:22:23,970 --> 00:22:27,130 Speaker 1: anything about that, sir. All the way back to Liverpool. 284 00:22:27,650 --> 00:22:31,130 Speaker 1: I've finished my shift at five o'clock. At five o'clock, 285 00:22:31,450 --> 00:22:36,210 Speaker 1: they're still gridlocked in central Birmingham. The policeman waves goodbye, 286 00:22:37,170 --> 00:22:40,410 Speaker 1: screw this, Thanks the professor. He decides to give the 287 00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:44,050 Speaker 1: rush hour traffic time to clear and detours into the 288 00:22:44,090 --> 00:22:47,250 Speaker 1: suburbs to call in at the home of his old friend, 289 00:22:47,650 --> 00:22:56,410 Speaker 1: Henry Bedson. Bedson is not coping well with quarantine. He 290 00:22:56,650 --> 00:22:59,570 Speaker 1: hates being holed up at home when he could be 291 00:22:59,610 --> 00:23:03,170 Speaker 1: doing something to help. The phone keeps ringing, and he 292 00:23:03,250 --> 00:23:06,010 Speaker 1: keeps thinking he'd better answer it in case it's important. 293 00:23:06,570 --> 00:23:09,490 Speaker 1: But it's always some journalist trying to get into admit 294 00:23:09,570 --> 00:23:12,610 Speaker 1: that he's to blame for all the chaos that's unfolding 295 00:23:12,610 --> 00:23:16,490 Speaker 1: in the city. The desperate search to trace and quarantine 296 00:23:16,530 --> 00:23:21,890 Speaker 1: and vaccinate anyone Janet Parker might have met. Bedson's friend 297 00:23:21,930 --> 00:23:26,250 Speaker 1: tries to lift his spirits, but the next morning Bedson 298 00:23:26,530 --> 00:23:30,650 Speaker 1: writes a note I'm sorry to have misplaced the trust 299 00:23:30,930 --> 00:23:34,050 Speaker 1: which so many of my friends and colleagues have placed 300 00:23:34,050 --> 00:23:40,090 Speaker 1: in me and my work. Bedson writes. I realize this 301 00:23:40,250 --> 00:23:44,050 Speaker 1: act is the least sensible thing I have done, but 302 00:23:44,130 --> 00:23:46,730 Speaker 1: it may allow my wife and children to get some peace. 303 00:23:48,770 --> 00:23:53,170 Speaker 1: Bedson calls to his wife, I'm just going to the 304 00:23:53,210 --> 00:23:59,450 Speaker 1: garden shed. Cautionary tales will be back in a moment. 305 00:24:11,610 --> 00:24:16,010 Speaker 1: Henry Bedson is still alive when his wife finds him 306 00:24:16,010 --> 00:24:19,570 Speaker 1: in the shed, though he's losing a lot of blood. 307 00:24:19,770 --> 00:24:23,810 Speaker 1: She runs back to the house. As she's about to 308 00:24:23,810 --> 00:24:29,290 Speaker 1: pick up the phone, it starts to ring local radio news. 309 00:24:29,330 --> 00:24:32,210 Speaker 1: Can I speak to Professor Bedson? Get off the line, 310 00:24:32,770 --> 00:24:36,410 Speaker 1: yells Bedson's wife. She slams the receiver down and picks 311 00:24:36,450 --> 00:24:39,010 Speaker 1: it up again. I don't know it's the wife, she says. 312 00:24:39,010 --> 00:24:43,730 Speaker 1: She wants us to get off the line. Henry Bedson 313 00:24:43,970 --> 00:24:48,210 Speaker 1: survives for five days on life support before doctors conclude 314 00:24:49,010 --> 00:24:54,090 Speaker 1: that he won't recover. Five days after that, Janet Parker's 315 00:24:54,090 --> 00:24:59,290 Speaker 1: life finally ebbs away. Funeral director Ron Fleet is sent 316 00:24:59,330 --> 00:25:04,850 Speaker 1: to collect her body. Janet is cremated, then they fumigate 317 00:25:04,890 --> 00:25:13,490 Speaker 1: the crematorium just to be safe. Janet Parker has infected 318 00:25:13,690 --> 00:25:19,210 Speaker 1: only one other person, her mum. Once her mum recovers, 319 00:25:19,730 --> 00:25:25,090 Speaker 1: humanity is once again free from smallpox. But if it's 320 00:25:25,130 --> 00:25:27,970 Speaker 1: going to stay that way, it might help to find 321 00:25:28,010 --> 00:25:34,250 Speaker 1: out how had Janet got it. The government appointed a 322 00:25:34,290 --> 00:25:38,210 Speaker 1: committee to investigate. They tried the same kind of test 323 00:25:38,290 --> 00:25:42,170 Speaker 1: as in the German hospital, setting off a smoke device 324 00:25:42,250 --> 00:25:46,170 Speaker 1: in the smallpox lab to understand where the airflow might go. 325 00:25:47,370 --> 00:25:50,770 Speaker 1: The smallpox lab was a small inner room connected to 326 00:25:50,850 --> 00:25:55,330 Speaker 1: a larger outer lab. If the door between those rooms 327 00:25:55,450 --> 00:25:58,970 Speaker 1: was open, the air from the smallpox lab could get 328 00:25:59,010 --> 00:26:02,770 Speaker 1: into the outer lab, and the door was open sometimes 329 00:26:03,170 --> 00:26:06,850 Speaker 1: because the smallpox samples were stored in that outer lab, 330 00:26:07,730 --> 00:26:10,930 Speaker 1: But if smallpox parts got loose in that outer lab, 331 00:26:11,250 --> 00:26:14,610 Speaker 1: it shouldn't pose a risk. Everyone who was allowed into 332 00:26:14,650 --> 00:26:19,650 Speaker 1: the outer lab had been vaccinated against smallpox. But a 333 00:26:19,770 --> 00:26:24,450 Speaker 1: little bit of the smoke drifted further, some beyond the 334 00:26:24,490 --> 00:26:29,010 Speaker 1: outer lab and into a corridor, and some into a 335 00:26:29,090 --> 00:26:33,570 Speaker 1: service duct, and from the service duct threw a badly 336 00:26:33,610 --> 00:26:37,210 Speaker 1: fitted access panel into a room on the floor above 337 00:26:38,410 --> 00:26:42,970 Speaker 1: not Janet Parker's office, another room used for storage, but 338 00:26:43,050 --> 00:26:47,650 Speaker 1: that also had a telephone with an outside line. Janet 339 00:26:47,730 --> 00:26:51,730 Speaker 1: Parker's office phone didn't have an outside line, so when 340 00:26:51,770 --> 00:26:55,330 Speaker 1: she needed to make orders for supplies of photographic materials, 341 00:26:55,490 --> 00:26:59,410 Speaker 1: should use the phone in that storage room, sitting close 342 00:26:59,770 --> 00:27:04,730 Speaker 1: to the badly fitted panel. The investigators determined that Janet 343 00:27:04,770 --> 00:27:08,850 Speaker 1: had placed an unusually large number of orders on the 344 00:27:08,890 --> 00:27:12,770 Speaker 1: line last Tuesday in July, two and a half, weeks 345 00:27:13,050 --> 00:27:17,690 Speaker 1: before she began to feel ill. That timeline doesn't quite 346 00:27:17,770 --> 00:27:22,010 Speaker 1: stack up. The usual incubation period for smallpox is one 347 00:27:22,090 --> 00:27:25,290 Speaker 1: to two weeks, not two and a half. And you 348 00:27:25,330 --> 00:27:30,010 Speaker 1: can query how relevant that German hospital really is. There 349 00:27:30,290 --> 00:27:34,050 Speaker 1: you had a young man with smallpox coughing up clouds 350 00:27:34,050 --> 00:27:38,010 Speaker 1: of virus particles. Here you had a lab with workers 351 00:27:38,210 --> 00:27:45,290 Speaker 1: trying carefully to minimize contamination. Still, the investigators conclude infection 352 00:27:45,810 --> 00:27:49,730 Speaker 1: through the service duct is the most probable route that 353 00:27:49,770 --> 00:27:54,850 Speaker 1: they could find. Armed with the investigator's report, a government 354 00:27:54,970 --> 00:27:59,530 Speaker 1: agency decides to sue the University of Birmingham for failing 355 00:27:59,610 --> 00:28:05,610 Speaker 1: to ensure health and safety at work. In his book 356 00:28:05,970 --> 00:28:11,170 Speaker 1: The Last Days of Smallpox, the author Mark Pallin describes 357 00:28:11,250 --> 00:28:16,770 Speaker 1: the case in detail. Witness after witness attests that Henry 358 00:28:16,770 --> 00:28:22,330 Speaker 1: Bedson was known for being meticulous about safety procedures. You 359 00:28:22,490 --> 00:28:27,170 Speaker 1: can't eliminate all risks from lab work. As one expert 360 00:28:27,210 --> 00:28:33,530 Speaker 1: witness says, perfection is impossible. But Henry Bedson's smallpox lab 361 00:28:33,690 --> 00:28:36,650 Speaker 1: was doing nothing ntypical by the standards of the time. 362 00:28:37,850 --> 00:28:42,850 Speaker 1: What about the pox in the ducts hypothesis? The university's 363 00:28:42,930 --> 00:28:46,970 Speaker 1: lawyer calls a professor to testify for the defense. I've 364 00:28:47,010 --> 00:28:50,970 Speaker 1: been doing some calculations, the professor says, based on how 365 00:28:51,090 --> 00:28:54,450 Speaker 1: much smoke made it from the smallpox lab into the 366 00:28:54,530 --> 00:28:58,170 Speaker 1: room with a telephone, and how many virus particles typically 367 00:28:58,170 --> 00:29:01,930 Speaker 1: get into the air from routine lab work, I reckon 368 00:29:02,050 --> 00:29:04,810 Speaker 1: you might expect virus particles to make it into the 369 00:29:04,850 --> 00:29:09,570 Speaker 1: telephone room at the rate of one particle every two 370 00:29:09,610 --> 00:29:13,890 Speaker 1: to twenty thousand years. The lawyer for the Health and 371 00:29:13,970 --> 00:29:18,050 Speaker 1: Safety agency calls an expert witness, too, but it seems 372 00:29:18,090 --> 00:29:22,050 Speaker 1: that he hasn't researched his experts views. When asked about 373 00:29:22,050 --> 00:29:25,570 Speaker 1: the investigator's theory that Janet had got the virus through 374 00:29:25,570 --> 00:29:30,210 Speaker 1: the service duct, the expert says he thinks it's highly implausible. 375 00:29:31,570 --> 00:29:35,290 Speaker 1: The lawyer's taken aback his own witness has just dismissed 376 00:29:35,330 --> 00:29:39,170 Speaker 1: the central plank of his case. But if we discount 377 00:29:39,370 --> 00:29:43,690 Speaker 1: the duct hypothesis, the lawyer asks, with what does that 378 00:29:43,810 --> 00:29:50,170 Speaker 1: leave us? The expert replies, it leaves you with a puzzle. 379 00:29:55,970 --> 00:29:59,290 Speaker 1: Say the words lab leak. Now, of course, and the 380 00:29:59,330 --> 00:30:04,730 Speaker 1: city that springs to mind isn't Birmingham, It's Wuhan. A 381 00:30:04,770 --> 00:30:08,810 Speaker 1: novel coronavirus pandemic just happens to start in a city 382 00:30:09,090 --> 00:30:12,890 Speaker 1: which has a lab that does research on novel coronaviruses. 383 00:30:13,490 --> 00:30:19,330 Speaker 1: Quite a coincidence. Was COVID a lab leak? That debate 384 00:30:19,650 --> 00:30:24,010 Speaker 1: rumbles on, But I wondered if the Birmingham story might 385 00:30:24,050 --> 00:30:28,050 Speaker 1: give us any general lessons about lab leaks. I think 386 00:30:28,090 --> 00:30:32,730 Speaker 1: there are two lesson. Number one, the puzzle might never 387 00:30:32,770 --> 00:30:37,850 Speaker 1: be solved. We might only ever have competing stories and 388 00:30:37,890 --> 00:30:41,050 Speaker 1: our own best guess as to which makes most sense. 389 00:30:42,650 --> 00:30:46,170 Speaker 1: The second lesson starts with another observation from that trial, 390 00:30:46,930 --> 00:30:52,210 Speaker 1: Perfection is impossible. No matter how careful you try to be, 391 00:30:52,650 --> 00:30:56,970 Speaker 1: there'll always be something you might overlook. Think about that 392 00:30:57,090 --> 00:31:01,810 Speaker 1: evening before Henry Bedson despairingly went to his garden. Shed 393 00:31:03,770 --> 00:31:08,650 Speaker 1: Bedsen's at home, forced to quarantine because you can't be 394 00:31:08,650 --> 00:31:13,330 Speaker 1: too care but parked outside on his drive is his 395 00:31:13,490 --> 00:31:19,090 Speaker 1: friend's car containing highly dangerous smallpox samples from Janet Parker. 396 00:31:19,810 --> 00:31:22,930 Speaker 1: The professor then drives his car one hundred miles up 397 00:31:22,970 --> 00:31:26,490 Speaker 1: the motorway with no police escort. What if it had 398 00:31:26,530 --> 00:31:31,890 Speaker 1: a crash? Or think about fumigating the crematorium after Janet 399 00:31:31,890 --> 00:31:36,530 Speaker 1: Parker's body was burned just to be safe. Yet nobody 400 00:31:36,530 --> 00:31:39,770 Speaker 1: had thought about the risk to funeral director Ron Fleet, 401 00:31:40,010 --> 00:31:44,210 Speaker 1: who had to lug Janet's corpse into his van without help, 402 00:31:44,850 --> 00:31:49,610 Speaker 1: praying the body bag wouldn't burst. There'll always be something 403 00:31:49,650 --> 00:31:55,050 Speaker 1: you might overlook. In twenty fourteen, in a lab in Bethesda, Maryland, 404 00:31:55,650 --> 00:31:59,770 Speaker 1: half a dozen glass pals of smallpox were discovered in 405 00:31:59,810 --> 00:32:03,450 Speaker 1: a cardboard box at the back of a cupboard, forgotten 406 00:32:03,850 --> 00:32:08,570 Speaker 1: since the nineteen fifties. If we're going to do research 407 00:32:08,610 --> 00:32:12,570 Speaker 1: on deadly viruses, we have to accept some risk that 408 00:32:12,650 --> 00:32:16,290 Speaker 1: something will go wrong in some way we hadn't considered. 409 00:32:16,970 --> 00:32:19,330 Speaker 1: So the second lesson I want to suggest is this, 410 00:32:20,330 --> 00:32:23,570 Speaker 1: we'd better be damn sure that that research is worth it. 411 00:32:26,370 --> 00:32:31,250 Speaker 1: Perhaps in the case of Birmingham, the puzzle has an answer. 412 00:32:32,090 --> 00:32:36,730 Speaker 1: In twenty eighteen, the author Mark Pallin tracked down the 413 00:32:36,850 --> 00:32:39,770 Speaker 1: lawyer who had represented the university in the court case. 414 00:32:40,370 --> 00:32:44,850 Speaker 1: The lawyer was now eighty five years old. The author asked, 415 00:32:45,850 --> 00:32:50,850 Speaker 1: do you know what really happened? Well, said the lawyer, 416 00:32:51,650 --> 00:32:56,690 Speaker 1: there was a rumor, a very strong rumor. I could 417 00:32:56,730 --> 00:33:00,250 Speaker 1: never get anyone to say it on the record, but 418 00:33:00,290 --> 00:33:04,970 Speaker 1: the rumor went like this, back in the nineteen seventies, Remember, 419 00:33:05,330 --> 00:33:10,530 Speaker 1: nobody had smartphones or digital cameras. To make holiday photos, 420 00:33:11,010 --> 00:33:15,210 Speaker 1: you needed roles of film, and they were pricey. A 421 00:33:15,250 --> 00:33:19,570 Speaker 1: photographer at an institution like a medical school could buy 422 00:33:19,610 --> 00:33:23,530 Speaker 1: those films in bulk at a discount. There was a 423 00:33:23,530 --> 00:33:27,010 Speaker 1: well established tradition in the medical school. The rumor went 424 00:33:27,530 --> 00:33:32,090 Speaker 1: that the photographer would get you cut price films. That 425 00:33:32,410 --> 00:33:36,610 Speaker 1: might explain why Janet was placing so many orders in 426 00:33:36,690 --> 00:33:40,130 Speaker 1: the last week of July, just before everyone went on 427 00:33:40,170 --> 00:33:45,490 Speaker 1: their summer holidays. And what if a few days later, 428 00:33:46,050 --> 00:33:49,650 Speaker 1: Janet had gone around the building delivering to her colleagues 429 00:33:49,810 --> 00:33:53,090 Speaker 1: the supplies she'd got for them. What if she had 430 00:33:53,250 --> 00:33:57,530 Speaker 1: popped into the outer lab just for a moment to 431 00:33:57,650 --> 00:34:00,690 Speaker 1: drop off a roll of film. What if this year 432 00:34:01,010 --> 00:34:04,970 Speaker 1: she had chosen just the wrong moment when there were 433 00:34:05,090 --> 00:34:08,370 Speaker 1: virus particles in the air or on a surface she 434 00:34:08,650 --> 00:34:13,810 Speaker 1: happened to touch. It's only a rumor, just one more 435 00:34:13,930 --> 00:34:19,210 Speaker 1: competing story. But if Janet had encountered the virus a 436 00:34:19,250 --> 00:34:22,850 Speaker 1: few days after the investigator's guessed, it would make the 437 00:34:22,890 --> 00:34:27,530 Speaker 1: incubation period line up. And if the tradition of photographers 438 00:34:27,610 --> 00:34:31,850 Speaker 1: delivering film to their colleagues went back to young Tony, 439 00:34:32,850 --> 00:34:36,970 Speaker 1: that would also neatly solve the two nickel question of 440 00:34:37,010 --> 00:34:43,850 Speaker 1: why an infection might have happened twice as one more 441 00:34:43,930 --> 00:34:49,170 Speaker 1: loose end to tie up. One final irony was the 442 00:34:49,250 --> 00:34:53,930 Speaker 1: research worth it. Henry Benson, remember had been anxious to 443 00:34:53,970 --> 00:34:59,530 Speaker 1: complete his work on whitepox, the mysterious virus from labs 444 00:34:59,570 --> 00:35:04,850 Speaker 1: in the Netherlands and Russia. If whitepox was similar to smallpox, 445 00:35:05,490 --> 00:35:09,330 Speaker 1: it might live in wild populations of monkeys and rodents 446 00:35:09,490 --> 00:35:15,410 Speaker 1: and then jump back to humans. After Bedson's death, other 447 00:35:15,490 --> 00:35:21,730 Speaker 1: researchers finished the job. They found that white pox was 448 00:35:21,730 --> 00:35:28,770 Speaker 1: a mirage. These viruses weren't just like smallpox, they were smallpox, 449 00:35:29,330 --> 00:35:33,730 Speaker 1: and the smallpox didn't come from the animals. The samples 450 00:35:33,730 --> 00:35:37,130 Speaker 1: from rodents and monkeys in the Dutch and Russian labs 451 00:35:37,730 --> 00:35:43,250 Speaker 1: had been contaminated with smallpox. In the labs themselves. The 452 00:35:43,290 --> 00:35:46,650 Speaker 1: monkeys and rodents had never had a pox like virus 453 00:35:46,730 --> 00:35:52,490 Speaker 1: at all. That kind of contamination shouldn't happen in a lab, 454 00:35:52,570 --> 00:35:58,330 Speaker 1: of course, but sometimes it does. Perfection is impossible. If 455 00:35:58,370 --> 00:36:03,090 Speaker 1: the work in Henry Bedson's lab had been perfect, Janet 456 00:36:03,090 --> 00:36:07,130 Speaker 1: Parker could never have got smallpox. But if the Dutch 457 00:36:07,170 --> 00:36:11,570 Speaker 1: and Russian labs had been perfect, Bedson wouldn't have been 458 00:36:11,570 --> 00:36:25,970 Speaker 1: doing that work in the first place. A key source 459 00:36:26,010 --> 00:36:29,730 Speaker 1: for this episode was Mark Pallon's book The Last Days 460 00:36:29,770 --> 00:36:34,090 Speaker 1: of Smallpox Tragedy in Birmingham. For a full list of 461 00:36:34,090 --> 00:36:48,090 Speaker 1: our sources, see the show notes at Timharford dot com. 462 00:36:48,490 --> 00:36:52,050 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales as written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright, 463 00:36:52,250 --> 00:36:56,250 Speaker 1: Alice Fines, and Ryan Billy. It's produced by Georgia Mills 464 00:36:56,370 --> 00:37:00,170 Speaker 1: and Marilyn Rust. The sound design and original music are 465 00:37:00,170 --> 00:37:03,730 Speaker 1: the work of Pascal Wise. Additional sound design is by 466 00:37:03,810 --> 00:37:09,090 Speaker 1: Carlos san Juan at Brain Audio. Bend Dafhaffrey edited the scripts. 467 00:37:09,970 --> 00:37:13,850 Speaker 1: The show features the voice talents of Melanie Guttridge, Stella Harford, 468 00:37:14,050 --> 00:37:19,250 Speaker 1: Oliver Hembrough, Sarah Jupp, Massaam Monroe, Jamal Westman, and rufus Wright. 469 00:37:19,890 --> 00:37:22,690 Speaker 1: The show also wouldn't have been possible without the work 470 00:37:22,770 --> 00:37:27,610 Speaker 1: of Jacob Weisberg, Greta Cohene, Sarah Nix, Eric Sandler, Carrie Brody, 471 00:37:27,890 --> 00:37:33,210 Speaker 1: Christina Sullivan, Kira Posey, and Owen Miller. Cautionary Tales is 472 00:37:33,250 --> 00:37:37,530 Speaker 1: a production of Pushkin Industries. It's recorded at Wardoor Studios 473 00:37:37,650 --> 00:37:41,130 Speaker 1: in London by Tom Berry. If you like the show, 474 00:37:41,410 --> 00:37:44,530 Speaker 1: please remember to share, rate and review. 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