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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go revering the corner.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds remaining, so it just goes throwing under the basket,

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Speaker 1: under the basket. It's the crew for the wind God.

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Speaker 2: Leader hit that one from a parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome wadies, gentlemen to a very special edition of the

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Speaker 1: BBOC podcast. It is March. It is conference tournament time.

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Speaker 1: The weave is here. Matthew Cox, kind Ofckey and Jim Root.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go through some of the non conference A

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Speaker 1: tourney games per usual to kick us off. Got some

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Speaker 1: monster games actually Monday Tuesday. Hit some of the remaining

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Speaker 1: kind of fun mid major games Monday Tuesday, but then

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Speaker 1: dive right into the three connrace servants that kick off Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: That is the Horizon, the sun Belt, and the Patriot.

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Speaker 1: You have an opening on Monday in the Horizon. Shouts

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Speaker 1: to IU, Indy and Cleveland State to what our beaks.

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Speaker 1: We have some hot takes in that one. But first

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Speaker 1: Kai Jim, let's talk about some powerful power conference games.

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Speaker 1: I always stay at Arizona and Duke NC State do

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Speaker 1: battle on Monday, and then we have some SEC action

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Alabama at Georgia, Nebraska goes out west to Ucla.

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Speaker 1: I guess they stay out west. I should say after

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Speaker 1: the USC game, then Kentucky at Texas, and let's start

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Speaker 1: with the Monday too. For gents, we'll get to some

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Speaker 1: of the big Sky action. Know some of you big

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Speaker 1: Sky fiends are looking for us to talk about all

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Speaker 1: the implications with that tournament. There actually aren't very many

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Speaker 1: spoiler alert, but I always stay Arizona. We actually have

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Speaker 1: lines out for these kai Arizona minus seven and a

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Speaker 1: half against the Clones, and Duke is laying nine off

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Speaker 1: of their demolition of Virginia over the weekend at will

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Speaker 1: Wade will Wade's house. I guess any interest in either

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Speaker 1: one of these for you?

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Speaker 3: Gosh, I think Arizona's pretty unstoppable' That's what I took

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Speaker 3: away from the Kansas game this past week. Also, ioa

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Speaker 3: pretty funny they were named a one seed and then

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Speaker 3: promptly lose two out of three. Pretty sure they're off

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Speaker 3: that line now. So I lean towards Arizona here, But heck,

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Speaker 3: I really like the idea of Iowa State as a

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Speaker 3: medium to big dog, a team that I think plays

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Speaker 3: very very well as an underdog with their their defense.

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Speaker 3: Obviously Josh Jefferson, who's one of the best players in

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Speaker 3: the country. I leaned their way a little bit against Arizona.

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Speaker 2: And then Jen.

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Speaker 3: This feels a classic well weighed game for me, a

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Speaker 3: classic hype spot for him. He can't win normal games,

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Speaker 3: but he can win huge games in the ACC.

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Speaker 4: I think it's the Duke is.

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Speaker 3: Right to be picked off if you have the balls

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Speaker 3: to fade Duke, who seems to be inevitable right now.

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Speaker 3: I lean towards both the dogs in.

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Speaker 1: Summary, real quick, is NC State really like an eight

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Speaker 1: seed as I look at Bracken Matrix.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, around eight to ten, somewhere around the nine seed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been ugly for them recently. Yeah, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of like I've seen this sentiment on Twitter, like

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Speaker 2: do we have to have this team in the tournament?

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Speaker 2: Like they aren't they're so frustrating, Like they get such

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Speaker 2: puffy chess when they blow out mega shorthanded North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: I think you kind of see them ride the wave

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Speaker 2: a little bit here. It's a very emotionally tied team,

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Speaker 2: like the crowd can actually lift them. I think you'll

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Speaker 2: see that. I think Duke wins, but I saw ten

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Speaker 2: and a half at an early opener. I think it's

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Speaker 2: smart that it's down to nine. I would take double

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Speaker 2: digits probably with NC State. I'm with Kai. I think

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Speaker 2: NC State does compete there. They've got a lot of size, athleticism,

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Speaker 2: they can switch a bunch. I think Boozer has a

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Speaker 2: Mondo day and they're gonna have to double him because

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Speaker 2: I don't think Lubin or Darien Williams can handle him inside.

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Speaker 2: But there's enough shot making on that NC State team

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Speaker 2: from Williams, from Paul McNeil. Copland's a great table setter.

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Speaker 2: I think there's enough there in the offensive department to

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Speaker 2: you got to make shots over the top of Duke

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Speaker 2: because they're so long and they keep you out of lane.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is the best in the country. But I

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Speaker 2: buy the juice there for Inncis State definitely lean their way.

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Speaker 2: Not an official bet for me. I'm thinking about locking

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Speaker 2: in Arizona though Iowa State just has not impressed me.

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Speaker 2: As Kai mentioned since the reveal Real Struggles, I thought

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Speaker 2: they should beat shorthanded BYU. They did not. I thought

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Speaker 2: they should beat, maybe even blow out shorthanded Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: based on forcing turnovers, Well, they forced fifteen and only

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Speaker 2: committed seven and still lost basically by double digits at home.

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Speaker 2: And yes, Texas Tech made threes, but Texas Tech shot

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Speaker 2: seventy one percent inside the arc. Iowa State shot forty three.

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Speaker 2: Like that's really bad. That's a massive gap with no

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Speaker 2: top end. That really can't happen against the Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: team that's playing super small and trying to just outshoot

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Speaker 2: you from deep. You can't get dominated at the rim,

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Speaker 2: and that is what's going to happen against Arizona, who

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Speaker 2: is maybe the best rim team in the entire country

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Speaker 2: with crevas with a waka. They got Copete back and

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Speaker 2: he looked really good against Kansas. So, Maddie, I have

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Speaker 2: a towards Arizona. I think where they're at like third

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Speaker 2: analytically might even understate them. I think they're on the

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Speaker 2: tier with Duke in Michigan and Ken Palm has them

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Speaker 2: like two points behind an efficiency margin. I'm not buying that.

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Speaker 2: With Pete, I think they're like that true super elite team.

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Speaker 2: So lean towards NC State and Arizona.

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Speaker 1: For me, yeah, I kind of the Arizona. The Ku

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Speaker 1: game convinced me. I probably did elevates Arizona and my

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Speaker 1: hierarchy there. The Pete being back is such a game changer,

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Speaker 1: just like another kind of superhuman strength wing there that

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Speaker 1: can just do everything, super versatile. Tuesday, God, I have

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Speaker 1: a lot here. The Nebraska at UCLA games intriguing. Like

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Speaker 1: Nebraska looks you know, they look very I mortally, they've

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Speaker 1: got off to all these slow starts and then they

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Speaker 1: kind of get into a groove second half and they

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Speaker 1: just certainly don't look like a a top you know,

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Speaker 1: a top flight team, but they play very well connected.

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Speaker 1: Curious what Cronin tries to do in terms of their

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Speaker 1: defensive scheme there. Kentucky A and m also kind of

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Speaker 1: a fun matchup, and then the off to the races

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Speaker 1: go at Alabama at Georgia. That total is going to

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Speaker 1: be h one ninety.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't won eighty three at cppum yea.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to probably open ones eighty six

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Speaker 1: and people will probably be eager to bet that over

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Speaker 1: kay any take on total side in these three games.

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Speaker 1: A few other on Tuesday we can get to, but

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Speaker 1: those are kind of three that stuck out to me.

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Speaker 1: That's with the most intrigued.

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Speaker 3: Bama firing and all cylinders man eight straight wins. I

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Speaker 3: think they get it again as a short favorite against Georgia.

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Speaker 3: Kim Oom's got a one. I mean I will take

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Speaker 3: Alabama all day with that, especially over what a seventy

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Speaker 3: plus possession.

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Speaker 4: Game, seventy five possession game.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be up and down as the total suggests.

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Speaker 4: Nebraska, I lean their way.

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Speaker 3: They have a shorter travel than UCLA is coming back

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Speaker 3: from Minnesota. Nebraska just killed USC and very impressive team

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Speaker 3: this season. I think I leaned their way as well. Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: I'm glad A and M finally came back down to earth.

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Speaker 3: They're two and six over the last eight after starting

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Speaker 3: seven to one in the SEC.

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Speaker 4: That's more who A and M is to me.

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Speaker 3: I the start was a bit of a facade and

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Speaker 3: it's hard to fall right now what Kentucky's doing. The

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Speaker 3: game against Van Butt was never close. Chandler has been awesome,

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Speaker 3: been very impressed with them. So lean Kentucky strongerly in

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Speaker 3: to Nebraska against UCLA strongest.

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Speaker 4: And I will be taking Alabama for the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Jim, Okay, We're not quite head to head, but I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna take Ucla. I just I know the travels is frustrating,

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Speaker 2: and I'm sure Cronen we'll mention it. But the one

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Speaker 2: off trip to Minnesota, you take the loss. You come

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Speaker 2: back home where they've been way way better. They're one

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Speaker 2: and six straight up outside of the Pacific time zone

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Speaker 2: getting back home there against Nebraska. UCLA is coming off

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Speaker 2: home wins against Illinois against USC by twenty. I know

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Speaker 2: Nebraska's comfy, cozy out there, but as Matt mentioned, their

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Speaker 2: first half against USC was not good. It was a

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Speaker 2: complete second half surge after Chad Baker mazzar I got

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Speaker 2: banged up and couldn't come back in a game. I

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Speaker 2: think I'm a little bit skeptical of like the true

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Speaker 2: peak version of the Huskers, and I've seen the connected

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Speaker 2: portion of UCLA, like what they can look like when

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Speaker 2: it's working with Dent, with the shooting from Clark and Perry.

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Speaker 2: Billadoh's versatile inside out game. I think, what's his name,

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Speaker 2: Nico Medved for Minnesota said, Billdoh has been like banged up.

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Speaker 2: He's like, man, look at that guy. He's playing like

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Speaker 2: a first team All conference guy despite you know, some

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Speaker 2: some nagging injuries. So I'm going to take UCLA as

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Speaker 2: the home dog, even against the kind of odd travel

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Speaker 2: spot for them. Actually lean to A and M a

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Speaker 2: little bit. I think their press can bother Kentucky. I

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Speaker 2: thought Vanderbilt would do the same, So grain of salt

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Speaker 2: folks out there, if if you want, I think I

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Speaker 2: took Vanderbilt on the weekend BBOC episode and got that

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Speaker 2: thrown in my face. But you know, sometimes you got

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Speaker 2: to go back to the well. I like that pressure

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Speaker 2: against Kentucky always been brilliant. Chandler has been awesome. Like

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Speaker 2: Kai said, he can't miss basically an SEC play Lean

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Speaker 2: to A and M. And then I was Kai on

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Speaker 2: the last one. Alabama just kind of cruising. They got

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Speaker 2: filing back in that when at Tennessee got the road

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Speaker 2: revenge after losing it home to them, and George's got

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Speaker 2: surreal in the paint. That's kind of it, Like they're

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Speaker 2: not gonna really exploit that interior softness for Alabama. Jordan

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Speaker 2: ross Smith's last game for Georgia. I'm a huge fan

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Speaker 2: of his, but you'd like to have the full contingent

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Speaker 2: in the back court when you're taking on Alabama's guard group.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Lean towards Alabama Texa saying, and then I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna take U c l A plus three Matthew.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny looking at bracket A DI Crod. Now

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Speaker 1: it's UCLA, and then five SEC teams that are clustered

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Speaker 1: around the ten eleven seed line, Georgia, A and m Missouri,

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Speaker 1: your Missouri Tigers, Texas, Auburn, and then my Indiana Hoosiers.

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Speaker 1: Some people think they're oh my god, they're gonna lose today.

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Speaker 1: If you listeners tomorrow they're at the I bet they

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Speaker 1: lose by twenty state ten live. We'll see how that ages.

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Speaker 1: I have nothing. Yeah, let's I want to get to

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Speaker 1: some of these min major games, especially in the Conors

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Speaker 1: turnt so let's let's move to the best of the rest.

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Speaker 1: I have no action either of those. I was just

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Speaker 1: trying to run the splits on the La UCLA usc

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Speaker 1: ats when you're getting the craps by in terms of

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Speaker 1: travel when your opponent doesn't have to. But it's basically

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Speaker 1: been like a coin flip this year, so it's not

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Speaker 1: like any crazy edge there. I actually agree with the CRONA.

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Speaker 1: That's a tough spot Saturday Tuesday, when Nebraska has been

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Speaker 1: right there. All right, let's move on to the Big

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Speaker 1: bad Sky.

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Speaker 4: Kay.

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Speaker 1: They did this last season too, where basically every team

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Speaker 1: finishes up on Monday, and I think every team is

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Speaker 1: playing three and five Thursday, Saturday, Monday. I need to

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Speaker 1: double check that real quick. But just a a scan

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Speaker 1: of what the situation is for the conference tournament. Idaho

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Speaker 1: is locked.

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Speaker 2: What's the name of the conference tournament?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 1: The Potato Idaho? Uh, starch madness, starch madness. Did you

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Speaker 1: know that crave is? Craven's doing the call again this year?

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Speaker 1: I think I hope he has a lifetime contract. It's

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Speaker 1: it makes that one of the better tournaments to watch.

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Speaker 1: So Idaho is locked into the seventh seed. Everyone else

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Speaker 1: has something to play for in theory, but the way

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Speaker 1: this bracket's set up, you want to be in the

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Speaker 1: top six. But there's not real advantage to being like,

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Speaker 1: you know, one, two versus fourth or three to six

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Speaker 1: and then seven to ten. That's where you're kind of

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Speaker 1: in a tough spot. Portland State is locked up a

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Speaker 1: share with they already, but they went out, they went

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Speaker 1: on Monday. They lock it up out right. Obviously they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be motivated to play Eastern Washington, a team I've

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Speaker 1: been on basically every game for three or two months

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Speaker 1: to start the year, can't lose, and all I do

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Speaker 1: is cover and win by doubles every time they go out.

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Speaker 1: There's a small chance they can actually sneak into that

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Speaker 1: one seed, but they're probably sitting at the two to three.

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Speaker 1: Just my overall angle here. Kind of know if you

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Speaker 1: have any takes on of these matchups, but I think

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Speaker 1: and you're in the Idaho or Sacramento State, Idaho State,

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Speaker 1: Northern Arizona Pod, all of those teams are kind of

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Speaker 1: locked into that play in spot. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: they're going to fold, but they don't really have any

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Speaker 1: real motivation in my opinion, so I don't I could

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Speaker 1: see maybe some blowouts here. That's just my hunch. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you have an opinion on that or

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Speaker 1: any other matchups, but fun big Sky action. It kind

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Speaker 1: of lead us into next weekend when the tournament kicks off.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Operation Fade Sax State still, I think

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Speaker 3: that's a good a good road state identity. You guys

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Speaker 3: should they're home against Sideahose State, but I'm still leaning

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Speaker 3: towards Idaho State in that game.

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Speaker 4: I gosh, I hope.

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Speaker 3: Portland State wins as a future holder on them.

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Speaker 4: They've lost three straight and kind of.

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Speaker 3: Maybe a close time choke job would really be unfortunate

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Speaker 3: because Montana State in Asian Washington Man are playing way

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Speaker 3: better and they have I know, Montana States on the road,

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Speaker 3: but I still call that an easier game than Portland

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Speaker 3: State hosting Weaver State and then e Wash. Yeah, eight

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Speaker 3: eight straight wins is crazy. I lean their way to

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Speaker 3: win again against Idaho. As you said, Vandals surprisingly in

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Speaker 3: the seventh seed, locked in nothing strong though in the

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Speaker 3: bigs in the Big Sky, Matt No, no official place.

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Speaker 2: Eastern Washington is now twelve and five against the spread

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Speaker 2: in league play, and that is because not only have

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Speaker 2: they won eight straight, they have covered eight straight. It's

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Speaker 2: absurd right now, the stretch that they're on. Yeah, Matthew,

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Speaker 2: just looking at some of those in dead spots, like

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Speaker 2: I think I probably would fade Idaho when you've got

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Speaker 2: Ewash playing for a title potentially at least a shred

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Speaker 2: of a possibility of sharing it and Idaho completely locked

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Speaker 2: into their seed. And it's just also like I feel

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Speaker 2: like statistically you should bet on the regression considering the

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Speaker 2: shooting splits that you watch has had over the stretch,

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Speaker 2: Like they have the number one three point center offense

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Speaker 2: and defense in the league, and it's even more extreme

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Speaker 2: over that eight game cover streak. But I kind of

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Speaker 2: want to just ride the lightning with them. Man, it's

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Speaker 2: it's a hot, hot team against the team and nothing

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Speaker 2: to play for. Why not? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I kind of like Weaver who is not playing three

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Speaker 1: and five actually a whole week off, and they're playing

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Speaker 1: the like clearly flatlining Perland State who has no depth,

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Speaker 1: and I think are just fine with like they are.

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Speaker 1: They have a claim of the title outright versus not

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Speaker 1: out right. Maybe they can't am sure they care to degree,

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Speaker 1: but I kind of like we were there no official play,

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Speaker 1: but I did give that a good, close close look.

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Speaker 1: I think that teams very under right now. They're geting

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Speaker 1: a little bit healthier. Only lost in that span is

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Speaker 1: to Eastern Washington, who he knows juggernaut. So Tuesday just

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Speaker 1: worth mentioning Miami Ohio plays. They have two more games

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Speaker 1: left to complete their regular season undefeated stretch, this one

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Speaker 1: against Toledo. Very curious what this number opens up. I

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Speaker 1: assume it will be a very high scoring game filled

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Speaker 1: with crazy insane runs, as most Toledo games are. First

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Speaker 1: game Miami went pretty handily. There nothing for me, probably

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Speaker 1: like a nine point spread. Maybe tempted to back to

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Speaker 1: Leo there is like a big dog guy. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: but not the officially. I got to see what the

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Speaker 1: price is there.

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Speaker 3: Very tempted, especially if Skaljack is out for Miami exactly.

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Speaker 2: That's the thing that's confirmed, right, Yeah, is he after

301
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Speaker 2: the radio after after the game Steel Center's radio show.

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Speaker 2: He'll be fine. He'll be fine for the next game,

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Speaker 2: despite the reports that are already out there. But kay,

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Speaker 2: as we talked about at the bar yesterday, I woke

305
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Speaker 2: to that. I'm I'm thinking Steele is maybe playing a

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Speaker 2: little possible with the committee and I'm not fully sure

307
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Speaker 2: that he's going to be Yeah, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I'll be on Toledo, Matthew tough two game stretch here

309
00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,160
Speaker 3: hosting Toledo and then at Ohio for Miami to finish

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Speaker 3: it out. They win thirty games, I think they should

311
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Speaker 3: be in the tournament. I've seen just really stupid Twitter interactions,

312
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Speaker 3: of course, because that's what Twitter.

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Speaker 4: Is discussing Miami is at large.

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Speaker 3: People just don't understand how this works, including Bruce Pearl

315
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Speaker 3: apparently no idea.

316
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Speaker 2: It's so clueless on the selection.

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Speaker 4: He just has no idea. It's a shame, and his.

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Speaker 2: Nippo son wants to make the tournament at fifteen and

319
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Speaker 2: fourteen exactly.

320
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Speaker 4: Yeah, so, but I will be taking Toledo.

321
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Speaker 3: I think the West Michigan game, Gosh, yet another game

322
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Speaker 3: Miami should have lost and they just found a way

323
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Speaker 3: to win, came back at the end. There, but seven

324
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Speaker 3: points probably what the spread will be. I'll be on

325
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Speaker 3: the rockets.

326
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Speaker 2: Jim, what do you guys think of the pandulo prop

327
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Speaker 2: right now? And maybe Draftckings has a two. It's Miami

328
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Speaker 2: to go undefeated in the regular season. Now the big

329
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 2: is stupid on it. It's minus two to ten yes,

330
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Speaker 2: plus one fifty four. No, you probably bet like if

331
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Speaker 2: you want Miami to do it, I would just moneyline

332
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Speaker 2: roll over the two games, wait on no side surprise

333
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,840
Speaker 2: minus two to ten, Yes, they go undefeated plus one

334
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Speaker 2: fifty four.

335
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Speaker 1: No.

336
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Speaker 2: I'm sort of intrigued by the no, you get both games,

337
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 2: but you could also just intrigued that both money lines

338
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:27,200
Speaker 2: Ontiledo and Ohio. There yeah, I did. The Scaljack thing

339
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 2: is huge. I'm going to be monitoring that right up

340
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 2: till game time. I'm not at all convinced that he's

341
00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,440
Speaker 2: going to be back because reminder, they've already lost Evan

342
00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,760
Speaker 2: Ipsorrow their point guard starting coming into the year, and

343
00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 2: Skaljack had emerged into a stud. And then the third

344
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 2: stringer I can't even remember his name, made like a

345
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 2: big play down the stretch of the Miami game. I

346
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 2: know it's the freshman Trey Perry. Trey Perry, like Perry. Yeah,

347
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 2: started played thirty minutes at fourteen points, three assists, one turnover, Like, okay,

348
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,280
Speaker 2: all right, we just manufactured point guards here at miam Ohio.

349
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Speaker 2: I'm yeah, I would. I'm scared of fading them because,

350
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Speaker 2: like I said, they just continuously find a way to win.

351
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Speaker 2: But I think taking the points is fair. I think

352
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Speaker 2: till you can keep it.

353
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Speaker 1: Close, Jim, I'm gonna look closer at that. I think

354
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,439
Speaker 1: fair should be like minus one fifty for yes, minus

355
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,200
Speaker 1: one forty, just assume like an eight.

356
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:17,399
Speaker 2: I think so too.

357
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Speaker 1: That's why the note sid point the next two games.

358
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, those that's interesting. I think they know people want

359
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 2: to bet.

360
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 1: The s because right fun. Yeah, of course, all right,

361
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 1: that's Homer for me, Thank you, Jim. Let's move on

362
00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 1: to some spots Section three here for again kind of

363
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 1: focusing on Monday, Tuesday, the final season finale. Yeah, let me.

364
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 1: I want to there's one I really like that I

365
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 1: want to kick off with because I want to actually

366
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 1: talk about the best bet that I have, as opposed

367
00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,760
Speaker 1: to just giving context to games with with no action.

368
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:51,160
Speaker 1: I love Drexel at hostra here. The Dragons have been

369
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,800
Speaker 1: just kind of thorn and everyone side all year.

370
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 4: Every season.

371
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,919
Speaker 1: It seems like Spiker kind of gets his team randomly

372
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 1: playing good. Late they have kind of rope adoped Garfield,

373
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 1: who has been injured all year and now he's like

374
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 1: healthy and he's an absolute force when he's at his best,

375
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:06,680
Speaker 1: and just look like he's been like the last two

376
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 1: games against Host's frontline. That's the neutralizing piece. Low low, low,

377
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 1: it is impossible to blow out Drexel. It seems like

378
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,919
Speaker 1: I think this game is like ugly, ugly, ugly, sixty

379
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 1: to like fifty five. We'll see what that line opens at.

380
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,879
Speaker 1: It's plus ten on I think it's gonna closer like eight. Frankly,

381
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 1: but I think eight's a good value. I probably make

382
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 1: that five to six even, and I recognize I'm probably

383
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 1: been too low on Haster this season, but then they've

384
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 1: had some depth issues. But I like Druxel gym go ahead

385
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 1: and run three other spots.

386
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 2: Though, well, I just will mention in addition to that

387
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 2: because I'm gonna be on Drexel as well, done to

388
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 2: like seven, host's fully clinched into the three hundred percent

389
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 2: can't move up, can't move down, so like that probably

390
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 2: changes their incentive system there. And they've they've been a

391
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 2: little banged up this year, and not quite like Delaware.

392
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,440
Speaker 2: Sometimes I confuse those two, but they've they've been a

393
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 2: little banged up, and I think they'll kind of just

394
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 2: foot off the gas pedal, especially against the hyperphysical team

395
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 2: like Trexel that has something to play for between the

396
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 2: four and the five and could fall away to the

397
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 2: sixth seed in a disaster scenario for them. So with

398
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 2: you on that one, Matthew, great call out. There's a

399
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,360
Speaker 2: couple teams that are awful loss that I think otherwise

400
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 2: would be in tough spots like Tennessee had they been

401
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: able to pull it out against Bama, would be all

402
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 2: time sandwich spot between that between Vandy on the weekend.

403
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 2: Now they're minus nine going to Columbia South Carolina. I

404
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 2: still lean towards the game Cocks there. I think you've

405
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 2: struggled to get like the absolute home run version of Tennessee.

406
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 2: But aful loss. It's a little bit hurtful on the spot.

407
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 2: BYU's minus one at Cincinnati. It's their second straight row

408
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,640
Speaker 2: game out east. They just lost at West Virginia. They're

409
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 2: hosting Texas Tech on Saturday, the Battle of the acl

410
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,880
Speaker 2: shortcomings in the big twelve. I kind of like since

411
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 2: he there, though, I think BYU's fading a little bit,

412
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,880
Speaker 2: since he's got that defense, They've got not like perfect

413
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 2: guys to throw it de Bonsa, but maybe Boba Miller

414
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,160
Speaker 2: gives him some trouble, maybe since your Harris gets under

415
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 2: him a little bit. So lean towards since he there,

416
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,879
Speaker 2: and a couple others, I'll go through real fast. UCF's

417
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 2: off a bad home loss to Baylor minus seven at

418
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: home or so Oklahoma State in a very high total game.

419
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 2: I think you could maybe take a look at the

420
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 2: Knights there. When I will be betting is Texas TCU

421
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: plus twelve at Texas Tech. KAI hate going back to

422
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 2: this freaking well of fading Texas Tech without Topvin because

423
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 2: they just are going to shoot forty five percent from

424
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 2: three in every game it appears. But TC is such

425
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: a feisty underdog. It's a tough follow up to winning

426
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 2: at Hilton Magic. So I'll take the horn Frogs there

427
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 2: plus twelve. Louisville and Illinois are both off losses and

428
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 2: now get inferior teams. Louisvel's much better against inferior competition

429
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,160
Speaker 2: minus fifteen versus Syracuse. I think that's a decent look.

430
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 2: Illinois minus nineteen against Oregon Illinois is an extra day

431
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: of rest Oregon. This line will probably be shorter because

432
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 2: Oregon's playing much better with Biddle back in the lineup,

433
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,440
Speaker 2: but longer travel for Oregon there and then, as Matt

434
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 2: mentioned directs and of course I'm gonna be fading Air

435
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 2: Force again. I know it didn't work over the weekend,

436
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 2: and it was so bad that like Wyoming only beat

437
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 2: them by I think two and Sundance Wick's had like

438
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,639
Speaker 2: a whole rant in the press are about like we

439
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,919
Speaker 2: can criticize guys that get paid to play. I was

440
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 2: so mad at my players because they won by not

441
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 2: enough against air Force. That's how bad air Force is.

442
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:21,679
Speaker 2: And you get Grand Canyon off a loss an actual

443
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 2: good team minus eighteen on the road in Colorado Springs.

444
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 2: I think I'm still gonna go with Grand Canyon there.

445
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 2: So that's my rundown of spots, Kyle, go to you.

446
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 2: Any of those jump out as a whole bunch of them.

447
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: Chorge actually took the lead there. They were down ten

448
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 1: and came back and took the lead and then they lost. Man,

449
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 1: I gotta think air Force is like and we can't

450
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 1: win that one? Yeah, what chance to we had?

451
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 3: Probably be on fad air Force next couple not official

452
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 3: for the pod, though I'm going direct sly. I do

453
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 3: love the Drexel spot there. Matthew Gray call game one

454
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 3: with sub sixty possessions, three point game Hawsher got up,

455
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 3: but then Drexel, as they do best defense in the league,

456
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 3: came back and mucked it up. And I like Gym's

457
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: TCU TA hornor Frog's been playing great lately in my opinion,

458
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 3: they've played themselves into the right side of the bubble

459
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 3: currently into the playing game right around there. When winners

460
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 3: of six of seven Texas tech man. I just don't

461
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 3: believe they're better without JT. Top and I can't believe

462
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 3: they are. They are three and oh straight up and

463
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 3: against the spread hasn't really been a sweat yet.

464
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 4: I think TCU at least can keep it close, even

465
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 4: though it's on the road.

466
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 1: Matthew, Yeah, Luke, bam mcgoy, bamgoy, the Englishman you last name.

467
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 2: Bam bamoy ignored the second b final.

468
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 1: Bamgoy, awesome offense light lately. I can't believe he's been

469
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 1: like a just a good role guy, not like a

470
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: featured post guy, but allowing the guards to flourish. All right,

471
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: let's go to conference attorney talk. I'm gonna kick it

472
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 1: off with the We have the horizon, the sun belts

473
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: in the Patriot. I have some some really hot not

474
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: hot takes, but well bake takes on the horizon, some

475
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 1: bell Patriot. I think we're just gonna tell you to

476
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: I guess bet Navy or bet Colegate and see what happens.

477
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 1: Maybe a little more nuanced to that. But let's go

478
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: deep on the horizon here, fellas. It's the same format

479
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: as last year. Now we have eleven teams, in this league,

480
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: every game to start is on the campus sites. The

481
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: highest seed will host. You win that, you move on

482
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: to Indy and that's where kind of the neutral site

483
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,239
Speaker 1: carries for for the quarters, semis and title for the

484
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 1: exception of Cleveland State IU Indie. As we tease on

485
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 1: the odd site starts tomorrow, they gotta win a extra game.

486
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: The winner they will play Right State, who is the

487
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 1: one seed the not the prevailing favorite, but right in

488
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 1: neck and neck with Robert Morris in Oakland's a few

489
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 1: percent below them, and then it kind of gets into

490
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 1: more of the dark horse mush of the league. Off

491
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: the any take on Cleveland State IU INDI tomorrow, I'm

492
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 1: looking at the total as we would instinctively believe it's

493
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,199
Speaker 1: going to be super super high scorn, but nothing out

494
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: yet officially here, and we'll get an early open that

495
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: pops to State.

496
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 4: Yeah.

497
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 3: I lean towards iun D beat them once this year,

498
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 3: and they have the capability to score a lot of points,

499
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: not to play defense, but the capability to score a

500
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 3: lot of points and to make a lot of threes

501
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: chaos in a tournament setting. So I will be picking

502
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 3: iun D in the Goat Conference tournament pool shout out.

503
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 2: Say, I've had I have IU Indy in a in

504
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: a season long pool because they were super cheap and

505
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 2: I was hoping to get a few cheap Horizon wins.

506
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: And down the stretch they kept playing well early and

507
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: then like fading second half. The same thing happened against

508
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,959
Speaker 2: Fort Wayne in the finale. They're up six at halftime,

509
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 2: they lose by six for the game. I worry that

510
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 2: like their lack of athleticism and kind of lack of

511
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 2: depth playing that style, like it's not as deep as

512
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: you'd want. You want to be able to go like

513
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 2: ten guys deep when they're playing as fast as they

514
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,679
Speaker 2: do trying to press, and they're not pressing quite as

515
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 2: much in the league play. But yeah, I want to

516
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 2: take them. I want to like drag line with Ben

517
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 2: Hollett here and I you in it. But I'm gonna

518
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: let's stay away from that one, Matthew.

519
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 1: And neither first round matchups that jump out at you, guys,

520
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 1: or just general dark horse picks to win the conference tournament.

521
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: Let me just run through the Osier real quick. So

522
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: Right State is plus two thirty, Robert Morris plus two forty.

523
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: I think those are terrible bets. Honestly, yes, agreed. Oh,

524
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: I mean I think they're good just like yeah, I

525
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: will say the what differentiates those? You know, those are

526
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: like the two most physical teams in the league. For like,

527
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: that's more skill based, i'd are you not always super

528
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: athletic Oakland plus five hundred. I think that's going to

529
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 1: be my pick, but I don't love the value. I

530
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: think Michael Hoe got hurt over the weekend. They're not

531
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: very deep. I need to check on that. And then

532
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy came out of nowhere, so Detroit Green Bay

533
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: the find that Go Leebs are both plus eight to

534
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: fifty plus nine hundred NKU. Darren Horror is nine to

535
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: five against the spread in this format. They've been kind

536
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: of a March a March Magic carpet rider. They're at

537
00:25:55,240 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: twelve hundred, Youngstown State nineteen hundred, pretty far. Thirty five

538
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: in the Milwaukee I fuck could win this damn thing

539
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: is seventy to one KAI. Now, I don't know how

540
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: they're not all the way. Hell, they got Faison Fields

541
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 1: back one of their key bags. But maybe they're just

542
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: not that good. But if you're gonna throw a dart,

543
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: I think that's the dart you throw is Milwaukee.

544
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's good dart in case, good dart. You know

545
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 3: what I'm taking though, At ten to one on DraftKings,

546
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 3: I'm taking Green Bay. And here's why I love because

547
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 3: emotional hedge. It's an emotional hedge because if Gottlee makes

548
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 3: the tournament, I'm going to drive myself crazy, so I

549
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 3: might as well make some money and and green Bay

550
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: can win it. One of the best in the league,

551
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 3: begs you, Well, they've beaten just about everybody I think.

552
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 3: I don't think they beat Right State. But yeah, I'm

553
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: taking green Bay for the emotional hedge sitting there.

554
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 2: I kaya joked about that in our discord today with

555
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 2: that very thing. Yeah, I just can't stand the like

556
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 2: amount of media propping up of Gottlie that will happen

557
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: after that without at least having a pycheck go into

558
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: my pocket. So there's gonna be some amount of money

559
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 2: thrown there, and if it ends up being a donation,

560
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 2: I'm okay with that. I'm frustrated that Northern Kentucky plays Oakland, Matthew,

561
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: because I was targeting Northern Kentucky at least for a

562
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 2: quarterfinal bet. But I respect campy. I respect them in

563
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 2: this format. That injury you mentioned to the Hogue is

564
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 2: worth wandering because.

565
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 1: It's not sure. But I know he did play way.

566
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 1: I saw hisman's were way down.

567
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like they got Garrett back, but it's

568
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: Robinson Garrett, never Tubou, I believe, as they call him.

569
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 2: It's like kind of a five man team. Like it's

570
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 2: really not there's not much to it. They have six

571
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 2: man team, so you gotta keep an eye on their rotation.

572
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 2: If he's out. Maybe Northern Kentucky's worth a stab because,

573
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 2: like you said, they just make moves in this event,

574
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 2: and it's usually wide open, like you often get a

575
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 2: team from like the bottom half of the like five

576
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 2: through eight that can make the finals. So yeah, I

577
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: agree the top two teams like I wouldn't even remotely

578
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 2: consider betting them to win three games, even if one

579
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: of them's at home at plus two thirty or whatever.

580
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 2: So lean to maybe in Northern Kentucky bet especially if

581
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 2: Hogue are huge. I don't know exactly how it was pronounced. Yeah,

582
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: leaned there, but this is not one that I'm going

583
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 2: to be sprinkling other than the Green Bay Phoenix emotional hedge.

584
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 4: Yes, fourth, noting that they received this tournament after the

585
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 4: first round.

586
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: So you can't exactly look at the draw right now

587
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 3: right and be confident.

588
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 2: And that's good for the high seeds. You guarantee to

589
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 2: not like have to play a top matchup.

590
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's funny. I looked at I know

591
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: said Robert Worse a terrible but I do. They have

592
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: one seven in a row and they beat Right State

593
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: twice in that run Oakland as well. Again, as I said,

594
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: they're the number one rebounding team offensively and defensively in

595
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 1: the conference, Right State Summer two and both. I think

596
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: that's not a fluke why those two teams are where

597
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: they are. Physicality, rebounding, winning, the possession of war is

598
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: going to translate. Who knows he's to get hot? And

599
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: then this is a conference where it does a ton

600
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: as everyone plays zone in this league, right, so you

601
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: gotta be able to execute and it's man in zone.

602
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: I was looking at some of the zone offensive splits.

603
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: There wasn't anything crazy that jumped out. But that's why

604
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: this this comment turn is always really crazy. Just there's

605
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: a lot of like in game volatility and swing. So

606
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: probably a fun live betting conference. Just anecdotally.

607
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: Anything takes stupid. Part of my brain wants to take

608
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 2: a little Milwaukee.

609
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, the last year.

610
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: And it like didn't go that well.

611
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 4: I don't know.

612
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 2: Yovanovitch injury like midway through the year, I think is

613
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 2: really what crippled them. He was kind of a key

614
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 2: piece for them, front court creator a little bit. They

615
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 2: could play through him some. But Hubbard's missed most of

616
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 2: the season and Aguilart is just kind of maddening. But

617
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: last year, thought they were a good bet lose to

618
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 2: open right away at that price for a team that preseason,

619
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 2: I thought I had the talent to win it. Like,

620
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 2: I just I think I've got to sprinkle a little bit. Matthew.

621
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm always a sucker for I can't ye.

622
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: I just don't think that's a good price. I just

623
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: I don't I think that the I respect, you know,

624
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: teams like Youngstown. I don't think it's terrible and pretty

625
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: four waye although John Kaufman has like a terrible it

626
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 1: was like his commerce tournaments part has been really bad.

627
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: I don't think they're terrible either. Yeah, this is kind

628
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: of gonna be a game to game type thing for me.

629
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: I have no official plays here. I feel like that's lane.

630
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: I think I gotta at least say take something kai.

631
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: But here I am in Detroit Mercy Worth Matching. They've

632
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 1: been sneaky, very impressive down the stretch. Yeah, it's very

633
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: hots I. They have a good mojo, a bunch of

634
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: kids from Detroit local like Motor City dudes, Orlando love

635
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: Joys like a mid range maestro. So let's talk to

636
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: the fun belt, which is the stairway to seven as

637
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: it's been branded. This is the bracket of depth, and

638
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: especially this season when you have such a league that

639
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: was riddled with parody, and you get to look at

640
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: Arkansas State, a very very good seven seed has to

641
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: win one, two, three, four five games compared to Coastal

642
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: app State UH three and then Troy Marshall two. So

643
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: let's run through kind of what the set up here.

644
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 1: Troy ended up after a little bit of a sluggish February,

645
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: they ended up securing the one seed. Marshall gets to two,

646
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: so they get the bye to the semi app State

647
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: and Coastal are the four to three or three four

648
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: four three? They get the by to the quarter. Then

649
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: the next group is Texas State, South Alabama at five six,

650
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: and then it's Southern miss Arkansas State. If you're not

651
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: if you're below that point, I can't. I don't know

652
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: how you can win this this field. James Madison, Georgia

653
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: Southern Sorry, and then Louisiana Georgia State, Old do Minyon

654
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: Louisian Road. Not only do you have no chance, but

655
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: you're not any good. Like the top ten teams are

656
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: thinking like at least like competent teams, but like eight

657
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: through ten there, I just like, man, I don't know

658
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: what you're gonna do, having to go Thursday, Friday, Saturday,

659
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: Sunday and then Monday. Kay, thoughts in the bracket, anything

660
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: that jumps out of you have a couple of takes

661
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: here on I think some situational edges that kind of

662
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: popped last season.

663
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, you have to go the top four.

664
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: The market Arkansas State up there in the top four,

665
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 3: I think right now for odds, but because their best

666
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 3: kim Pom team, But heck, five games in five days,

667
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: I don't think you can take them. And Matt said

668
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 3: it it's a parody ridden league. So it's top four.

669
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 3: I don't see coastal win in this league. I can't

670
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: believe they've got a top four seed. Shouts to Justin Gray.

671
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 3: I think it's app State, Marshall, or Troy. I don't

672
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 3: know the last time a top two seed has won this.

673
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 3: I know Matt's probably gonna save Richie Riley's had comments

674
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 3: about getting buys to the Semis before in this tournament,

675
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 3: I am going to submit ab State is my pick

676
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 3: in this one. Dustin Kerns has a magic about him

677
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 3: in this tournament.

678
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that would logically, Kai, I think that

679
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 2: that would makes the most sense to me, given both

680
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: draw and price combined. They're the best defense in the league,

681
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 2: which matters a lot, the number one two point percentage defense,

682
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 2: that defensive rebounding team. They are very stout inside and

683
00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: they're very comfortable in the half court. They had that

684
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 2: magical I think they won five games in five days,

685
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 2: like a couple of years back under Kerns. Yeah. The

686
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 2: one characteristic that that team had though, was a lot

687
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: of shot making guards, and this year's version of that

688
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 2: unfortunately Kyu kind of you handwave them, but it's coastal

689
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 2: to me. I like their three pronged guard attack with

690
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: Beatle Danceler and Jones. Those guys can all have like

691
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: a thirty point game and explode. And they've at least

692
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 2: got decent interior defense, like Pete is an awesome interior

693
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 2: shot blocker, rebounder. They've got Ice McVicker's been hurt, but

694
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 2: they've got two other six to ten guys in the

695
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 2: rotation that can kind of contribute in there. Their defense

696
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 2: has been pretty good in the league top five. Nobody

697
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 2: in this league is all that good. Like there's no

698
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 2: like great net rating. Team Troy is like plus eight

699
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: per one hundred possessions per Kenpom, and that's not that

700
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: much of a standout. They're just that they're winning because

701
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: of the draw or their best odds. That way, I'm

702
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,959
Speaker 2: going to take a flyer on Coastal Matthew fourteen to one,

703
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 2: give me the shots. I actually discussed this. I texted

704
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: a little with Stucky before this, so for any BBOC

705
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 2: listeners that would love to hear his take on it,

706
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: I've initially said app State, and he kind of helped

707
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: talk me into to Coastal as well.

708
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 1: Best Coach. No, it's my pick too. I think they're

709
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 1: in the perfect spot. Like I said last year, the

710
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,919
Speaker 1: three and four seeds both won, which would be app

711
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 1: State Coastal, and they both went on to knock off

712
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: the one two seed and one of those spot. I

713
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 1: mean Richie Riley talked to in the summer, He's like

714
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 1: playing on that Monday or that Sunday, Like getting off

715
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 1: till Saturday is one thing. Like the extra Sunday rest

716
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 1: was just awkward. It just felt like it was almost

717
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: a disservice of how long they got off, given more

718
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: when the league ended. So I I think Coastal in

719
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: that spot, and I think I'm with Jim. I know

720
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 1: they're not like super ranked that highly analytically, but I

721
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: think they have kind of that DNA that can play

722
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: well in a tournament format where you can have the

723
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 1: best player or shot maker on the floor too, with

724
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:56,919
Speaker 1: the pretty stout defense and a coach I like, good

725
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 1: size and like Marshall doesn't ski. I mean like I'd

726
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: much rather play Coastal against Marshall than Appstat against Troy,

727
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: who I do think is the best team. The coach

728
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 1: I like the most, So just that drawl and then

729
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: Marshall's defense has been really shaky ever since Matthew von

730
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: goon As I call him went out. They really they

731
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: couldn't get on any stops. So I think Coastals are great,

732
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: not only just the value of the spot. It feels

733
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: like the pricing here maybe didn't fully encapsulate the spot

734
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: in the bracket. I'm sure that's not the case, but

735
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 1: I donated him good. That's my pick.

736
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: I was just filtering since they started like playing really well.

737
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 2: They had a really slow start to conference play Coastal did.

738
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: They lost for their first five and starting January tenth,

739
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 2: when they beat Upstate at home, they are eleven and

740
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: ten and three in conference play. They had the one

741
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: win in the Max Sundeut Challenge. They're one hundred and

742
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 2: seventy first nationally, which is a lot better than their

743
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 2: season long Ken Palm rank if you throw out their

744
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 2: non con stuff, and they're roughly analytically equal to Arkansas State,

745
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 2: South Alabama, Troy, who are all in the one sixties.

746
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 2: So like they're right on that level, playing at that

747
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 2: level with those guards that I think can step up

748
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 2: in a postseason type of arena. Yeah, I think it's

749
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: worth the flyer, Matt. Here we go, let's go, let's go.

750
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 1: Shots, Kai, you got anything here? I'm doing my little

751
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: money line rollover Cali Clearer is just kind of compare

752
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: for contexts what that could be.

753
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: But any takes best values.

754
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 3: Coastal Yeah, just based on their spot in the bracket.

755
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 3: For sure, they have to go through either South Alabama

756
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 3: or Arkansas State, So I I don't I don't love

757
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: that app State side of the bracket. Besides Troy, I

758
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 3: think is a lot friendlier. But their odds are five

759
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 3: to one and not not really my my bag.

760
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: Baby, I can't believe that the Arkansas Arkansas State odds

761
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: like they're plus eight to fifty at least at FanDuel,

762
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: but it's Caesars. They're plus five eighty five to win.

763
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 2: That's five games, five days.

764
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 4: Not a good bet.

765
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: I got coastaled around fair is like eleven percent on

766
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: a rollover. It sucks because my favorite team in the

767
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 1: league is is South Alabama and that's who's gonna who.

768
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 1: That's who they could play. Coast will probably get South

769
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 1: Alabama or Arkansas State. So that's kind of part of

770
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 1: where we might be short we might be short sighted

771
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: in our evaluation here. It might be too forward looking,

772
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,479
Speaker 1: not looking backward as to what's coming down the Pike.

773
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: I mean it could be their toughest game, could be

774
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: that first game if they do actually go all the

775
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: way here. But that's a small play for me. I

776
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: do think again, a lot of these numbers a little

777
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 1: bit don't get great value here. That's why the money

778
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: light rollover kind of side by side comparison's worth doing.

779
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 1: For those of you nerds out there.

780
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 4: You mentioned South Am on that home court advantage.

781
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're like in an hour away. Riley always talks

782
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: about how they he like loves playing there because they

783
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: get they'll get they get a pretty good crowd. So

784
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 1: I'm sure it's not worth anything more than like a

785
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 1: fraction of a of a decimal of a basis point.

786
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 1: But we'll see uh final takes on the fund Belts

787
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: anything that in the opening matchups Louisiana or a shortest state

788
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: older miniverse Monroe. I think ODU, who got kind of

789
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: hot last season, is certainly a team I thought would

790
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: be way better. Kind of has like that. Maybe they

791
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: just randomly play well. Could see them smacking both mon

792
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: Row and Georgia Southern to get to Arkansas State. Maybe

793
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: you'd ride them for a couple of games. That's my

794
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 1: only other.

795
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: There's what do you guys think Monroe is against the

796
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 2: spread this year?

797
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 4: Poor?

798
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've They've actually a lot of close k non cars.

799
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: They've also just been.

800
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 2: Too They're seventeen and twelve against the spread.

801
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,919
Speaker 1: I'm shocked by the conference the kind of came back.

802
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean, I guess they started so low

803
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 2: because the roster was bleak in that entries early. I

804
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: actually like that that they've won at Old Dominion. Like

805
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,919
Speaker 2: for Odu, we're the we're the only team to lose

806
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 2: to them in the league. We got to come out

807
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 2: with our pants on fire.

808
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 1: Yeah all right. The Patriots sound very patriotic with not

809
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,320
Speaker 1: many great takes here, but this is fun because everything

810
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 1: is on campus Sites ten team. Top six get to

811
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 1: buy bottom four got to do the playing thing. So

812
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,000
Speaker 1: Buck nun Army will duke it out on Tuesday to

813
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: play Navy, who is unstoppel right now, and then Lafayette

814
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: Holy Ross will vie for the chance to play Lee

815
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: High the number two seed.

816
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:05,439
Speaker 4: Kai.

817
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 1: I like the Mountainhawks on paper this year, be you

818
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 1: American the four to five colgates the darling of this league,

819
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,399
Speaker 1: but not this season. And then Loyal and Maryland are

820
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: the three six I'm looking at. Maybe that Colgate Loyal

821
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:19,919
Speaker 1: and Maryland spot is like the winner of that game.

822
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 1: Could they sort of emerge in the final against Navy

823
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: and maybe shock the world just because I love both

824
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,240
Speaker 1: arguably the two favorite coach in the league. Or Colgate

825
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: Loyal Maryland. But I don't know Jim any of their

826
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: takes here. What am I missing in terms of matchups value?

827
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: But just what the Navy is? I mean minus one

828
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 1: sixty five the winner is feels pretty crazy?

829
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, DraftKings, Yeah, I bet, I bet that I was

830
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 2: surprised to be Draft Kings. Let me get on it.

831
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 2: I just Navy's been a complete juggernaut in this league.

832
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 2: They very nearly have the best offense in the best defense.

833
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: They have the best defense by ten points per one

834
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: hundred posessions, Like they are not even close, and nobody's

835
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 2: even remotely touching them. That's two point percentage defense, best

836
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 2: three point percentage of defense, best free throw rate allowed,

837
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 2: It's so hard to score on them. Best block rate

838
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 2: and best steeler rate. Steam at five starters come back

839
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 2: from last year. They're very, very connected. They've got a

840
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: star in Benini. I'm all the way and then them

841
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: in league play, Navy is fifteen to two to one

842
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:25,800
Speaker 2: against the spread. Yeah, like auto, just hit the button

843
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 2: every time the midship Men play. Don't get cute and

844
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 2: try to find the spot. I'm not gonna get cute

845
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 2: with a bet in this league. I'm not even really

846
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 2: looking that hard at American or Colgate. Jalen Cox missed

847
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 2: the last game, the finale against Navy, and they're like

848
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,839
Speaker 2: kind of useless without him. He is more or less

849
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 2: of the offense. Him and Alexi Yanko the freshman. So

850
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 2: I'm I'm all Navy here, Matthew, especially with that like

851
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 2: the price disparity for one book to have minus two

852
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,359
Speaker 2: hundred and another have minus one twenty. It's crazy. And

853
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 2: all these games are at home, so yeah, give me

854
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 2: the middies.

855
00:40:55,960 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 1: Roll goats number one and in minutes continuity. So yeah,

856
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: they were supposed to be good. They were good, and

857
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: they have it even better against more like my They

858
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: got crushed out of the gate by Yale, and I

859
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 1: think they're sort of tiny except for Big Aiden the Cayo. Yeah,

860
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 1: he's a monster man. They're one thirty five and Keempo.

861
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 1: I mean they get in they're probably like a fifteen.

862
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: This is not like a play in fourteen fourteen fourteen.

863
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: So we'll see how seriously we take them, you know,

864
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 1: I don't know.

865
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 2: I'll probably fade them. I think they called with North

866
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: Carolina with Vasar and Wi.

867
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 1: I remember watching the game. They look competitive, for sure.

868
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: They look like they could hang there as sort of

869
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 1: a fiicy dog. I know they kind of sag in

870
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: and make you hit shots, which is you know, probably

871
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,439
Speaker 1: smart as a the I Gues said the three hundred

872
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 1: and fifty ninth the tallest team in America. That's that's

873
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: basically it's a four garden, one end approach.

874
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, starting six to eleven, they won the lead by

875
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 3: six games. Yeah, I'm taking Navy as well.

876
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: Any other matchups we like first round here. I kind

877
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 1: of like Loyola here against Colgates.

878
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 4: Yes, you're a Lola guy.

879
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think uh Leffler's a really good coach. They

880
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 1: got they have been banged up this year. They took

881
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: Coliate to ot I remember, and they lost to Colgate

882
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: the first time like two points. Like both games were

883
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 1: super close. They're on the road. Obviously, Colgate's been really

884
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: good at home, but Loyola Maryland's like home road splits

885
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 1: from what I tracked, Like they're one of the better

886
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: road teams relatively in the country. They just have no

887
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 1: home core value. So I think in terms of the

888
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: rope of ports, get like maybe a half point of

889
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 1: value there. I like the great hands, like they get

890
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 1: it done. That's gonna be a uh.

891
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 2: They're kind of a fun, like talent level team too,

892
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 2: because Tatosi was at Wyoming, Springer was at Okay, it

893
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: was air Force, but he was a Mountain West player.

894
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 2: And steam Key is like, I'm not gonna say he's

895
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 2: an NBA athlete, but he can jump out of the gym.

896
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 2: So like, they've got kind of fun blend of guys there.

897
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: And they're still pretty young too, Like it's a lot

898
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 2: of freshman, sophomore and a couple of juniors. I think

899
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 2: it's a it's a nice bet. I would definitely check

900
00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 2: Jalen Cox's status for Colgate, whether he's in or out

901
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 2: come come game time. If he's out, I think Greyhons.

902
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: Area, Yeah, that'll be that one will move quickly. I

903
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: got nothing else, so guys for the Patriot, nothing official

904
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 1: for it. Sounds like you guys are all over. Maybe

905
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 1: for the tournament. I got nothing there. Let's get to

906
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: our picks. Jim, recap your slate last week or do

907
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 1: you want to decid? Do I want to see you

908
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 1: up to recap last week? That went well? If now

909
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 1: we can just kind of ignore it, but I think

910
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: it went well for well for all of us.

911
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I was the dud with a four and

912
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 2: three week. Sorry for dragging you boys down.

913
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: Ford one man. That's guys three and not bad. I'll

914
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 1: take it all right, Jim, go ahead, what's your recap?

915
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: You're to pump your chest out and then remind the

916
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: folks of what they're betting. Slash what you're betting.

917
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I we'll go through the individual bets. But yeah,

918
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 2: I was four and three last week. We've had a

919
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 2: pretty solid year on this podcast. Well done, Little golf

920
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 2: clap for US TCU plus twelve, probably play it down

921
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 2: to eight because the Texas tech lines have been so

922
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,439
Speaker 2: far off the kem pot market because of the top

923
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 2: in absence, but they have been playing well. But I'll

924
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,760
Speaker 2: be on TCU. UCLA plus three despite the travel disparity

925
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 2: against nor against Nebraska. Drexel plus ten probably down to seven.

926
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: With that spot in the matchup against host who's clinched.

927
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 2: I am gonna go Texas A and M minus one

928
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 2: at home against Kentucky. I keep kind of hitting my

929
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: head against the wall with Kentucky. But I shouldn't let

930
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 2: last game affect my handicap of this one with that

931
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt loss that I took. So Aggie's at home minus

932
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 2: one off their loss to Texas and Grand Canyon minus eighteen,

933
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 2: continuing to fade air Force with a team that is

934
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 2: good off of a loss. Matthew, that's my group, Kai,

935
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 2: how over to you.

936
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 3: I'm taking Alabama against Georgia as a short road favorite.

937
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 3: I'm taking Toledo against Miami.

938
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 4: Ohio because I'm so brave. I'm a scrooge.

939
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 3: Drexel against hostre great call up by Matthew, and then

940
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 3: TCU I will take against Texas Tech on the road.

941
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 1: I got drive with three LL last week, by the way,

942
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 1: and I shot matt Drexel plus eight. I'm gonna keep

943
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 1: it to my three. This is technically a moving target

944
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 1: in terms of my volume, so I'm gonna go didrex

945
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: Sol plus eight is kind of my strike there. Maybe

946
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: plus seven against Hofstra Loyola Maryland's I just kind of said,

947
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 1: I think plus five ish Cox is worth probably two

948
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 1: three least maybe plus four is where I draw the

949
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 1: line there, and then my Coastal I'm looking at my pricing,

950
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,320
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna go with the money line rollover

951
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: because I think the first game, if you're gonna if

952
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: you're gonna give Arkansas State, I mean, there'll be a

953
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:30,360
Speaker 1: dog in that game. So I'd rather just kind of

954
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 1: start off with a you know, a plus money bet

955
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 1: and then keep keep running forward. Getting that fourteen to

956
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: one doesn't look as good compared to I think some

957
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,359
Speaker 1: of the money line options coming coming up the bracket there.

958
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: So Coastal dres sold Loyola and that's it for me.

959
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 1: I think that's it for us, Fellas. Good luck on

960
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 1: the opening week confs Erman. Next week's going to be

961
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: insanely busy as we get to the title games, so

962
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 1: they'se been majors. Then also kick off the annoyingly large

963
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 1: behemoth brackets and the power conferences that'll start basically Monday

964
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: Tuesday the following week. Make sure to check out Stucky's

965
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 1: pod and then come back and join us next week

966
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: as we get you checked up for the early week stuff,

967
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 1: and then we're gonna go tomorrow and I think Tuesday, right, Jim,

968
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: in terms of getting you as prepped for all the

969
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 1: rest of the mid major brackets this week.

970
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,320
Speaker 2: Yep, I was just gonna say, keep an eye on

971
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 2: the BBOC feed. There's gonna be a million episodes coming out.

972
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 2: Matt and I are recording one with Stucky tomorrow doing

973
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: five new leagues, and we got a couple more Stucky's

974
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 2: doing midweek, I think with maybe Greg Wadell and one

975
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 2: or two others. The next Sunday, Me and Kai are

976
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 2: doing episodes with Stucky for that second week of commence tournaments,

977
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 2: and I think Mike Calbertys and Duck we'll cover the

978
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 2: final couple of leaks so that every all thirty one

979
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 2: tournaments are gonna be previewed on the BBOC fee. So

980
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 2: make sure to check.

981
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 1: Out again, subscribe. It's all there again, good luck, handicap

982
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 1: sharp March is here. It's our Christmas. Thank you again folks,

983
00:46:48,920 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: and stand by past week. Action Network reminds you please

984
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

985
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

986
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:20,240
Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler