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Speaker 2: This is a paid advertisement, all right. Sharper Square, co
Speaker 2: host of the favorites Chad Milman, all odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 2: So I had a rant today on my very popular
Speaker 2: syndicated radio show Milman.
Speaker 1: Now, no I'm familiar. I've heard it's big.
Speaker 2: People are talking. So my take is what you don't
Speaker 2: want to become is the NBA a very strong top,
Speaker 2: a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at
Speaker 2: the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the
Speaker 2: Eastern Conference. Now, and I said, as the NFL has
Speaker 2: become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and
Speaker 2: changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are
Speaker 2: getting to be a little nbaish in the NFL. A
Speaker 2: very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty
Speaker 2: soft middle of like the Seahawks, Rams, and nine teams
Speaker 2: with two or three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking.
Speaker 2: And so I have never been prone to big favorites.
Speaker 2: But Detroit last week at minus fourteen felt like one
Speaker 2: of the smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and
Speaker 2: a half. So I locked it in at ten this
Speaker 2: week on the Herd. But I think one team's soft
Speaker 2: tanking and one team is fighting for a playoff spot.
Speaker 2: One team is now on a backup and not a
Speaker 2: great backup. The other team has one of the better
Speaker 2: rookie quarterbacks in a long time. That team's at home
Speaker 2: playing for something. I know it's not sharp sharper square,
Speaker 2: but I like the commanders here.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,
Speaker 3: it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,
Speaker 3: you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.
Speaker 3: This is the week where they've decided they love massive
Speaker 3: divisional favorites.
Speaker 1: I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys
Speaker 1: like the Cowboys.
Speaker 3: And part of this is, yes, the number is so big,
Speaker 3: but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he
Speaker 3: was not very good against the Eagles last week on
Speaker 3: Thursday Night.
Speaker 1: In fact, like.
Speaker 3: Since that opening four game stretch where he was completing
Speaker 3: eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete
Speaker 3: more than seventy percent of his passes in a game.
Speaker 1: And so you have to ask yourself, as.
Speaker 3: He started to come back down to earth, has teams
Speaker 3: started to figure him out.
Speaker 1: That's really the key to this game.
Speaker 3: And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did
Speaker 3: last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the
Speaker 3: first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of
Speaker 3: being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in
Speaker 3: the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups
Speaker 3: in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters
Speaker 3: that we see in the league. But the wise guys
Speaker 3: are going to be on the Cowboys here because this
Speaker 3: number in a division game is just too big for
Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback who's who's steadily declined as the season
Speaker 3: has gone on.
Speaker 1: And by the way, the Rookie of.
Speaker 3: The Year ares odds are a great way to look
Speaker 3: at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up
Speaker 3: in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation?
Speaker 3: So the market is starting to recognize some of that.
Speaker 2: So I like the Bears plus three and a half
Speaker 2: hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that
Speaker 2: they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that
Speaker 2: they schemed up, layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they
Speaker 2: just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the
Speaker 2: luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy,
Speaker 2: they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God.
Speaker 2: I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have
Speaker 2: been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they
Speaker 2: have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and
Speaker 2: I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC
Speaker 2: change mattered sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.
Speaker 3: So the wise guys bet at five, they bet at
Speaker 3: four and a half, they better at four. They're still
Speaker 3: betting it a little bit at three at three and
Speaker 3: a half. If it gets any further than this, if
Speaker 3: I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you
Speaker 3: are locking in the Bears at three and a half,
Speaker 3: you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.
Speaker 3: You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's
Speaker 3: been in that game against Tennessee last week. They covered
Speaker 3: the spread, but not because of anything Sam Donald did.
Speaker 3: He had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty
Speaker 3: percent of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,
Speaker 3: So he is not having a very good sort of
Speaker 3: second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The
Speaker 3: problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I
Speaker 3: challenge the wise guy perception on this is they like
Speaker 3: the Bears largely because they think that Caleb did.
Speaker 1: What you just said. He looked better.
Speaker 3: He was getting rid of the ball in less than
Speaker 3: two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's
Speaker 3: been doing that, right, Can they really block against a
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than
Speaker 3: the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams
Speaker 3: this season, when he is facing a team that has
Speaker 3: a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive
Speaker 3: players that end in a sack, When he's facing a
Speaker 3: team that is a sack percentage of more than two
Speaker 3: point two percent, he's one and six. So you're looking
Speaker 3: at a guy who was facing a team that is
Speaker 3: a sack percentage of five and a half percent. A
Speaker 3: lot of times, it's not even because they're bringing pressure,
Speaker 3: they're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just
Speaker 3: confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: So to me, that's really the matchup you have to
Speaker 3: be careful of. It's why I'm staying away from this game.
Speaker 3: I just don't think there's any value in this number.
Speaker 3: Too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play.
Speaker 2: Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks, I've said this
Speaker 2: for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.
Speaker 2: I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.
Speaker 2: Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll
Speaker 2: move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.
Speaker 2: He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.
Speaker 2: Coseel said it on my show this week. They don't
Speaker 2: outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They are
Speaker 2: really smartly schemed, and I think this is an offense
Speaker 2: that is young in spots that is growing in confidence.
Speaker 2: I like teams that have an identity. As the season
Speaker 2: goes on, it takes team's time. Even the Patriots at
Speaker 2: Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's
Speaker 2: time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams
Speaker 2: still don't have it. Seattle doesn't. Arizona does sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I
Speaker 3: agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly
Speaker 3: who they are right they are even on defense, they
Speaker 3: are still a physical football team. James Connor is a
Speaker 3: really violent runner, and they know if they are able
Speaker 3: to get him the ball and be effective in the
Speaker 3: running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in
Speaker 3: the passing game.
Speaker 1: And they're just going to be the better team.
Speaker 3: Because of those two players, especially against a team like
Speaker 3: the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against
Speaker 3: the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells
Speaker 3: you how much they don't know who they are. Is like,
Speaker 3: they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a
Speaker 3: buy in advance of a huge division game. And I
Speaker 3: would not take yet anything from the Seahawks win against
Speaker 3: the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the
Speaker 3: Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that impacted
Speaker 3: the game tremendously. So Whise guys are with you. The
Speaker 3: Cardinals inside, they're you know, pun intended. They're putting the
Speaker 3: cards on the table here right because they can take
Speaker 3: significant control of that division coming off of by with
Speaker 3: a lot of hype on this team right now, so
Speaker 3: it's a big step up game for them.
Speaker 2: I like green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,
Speaker 2: if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's
Speaker 2: just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.
Speaker 2: Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynchpin
Speaker 2: of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged
Speaker 2: up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this
Speaker 2: about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're
Speaker 2: a five and five football team, and they're not very
Speaker 2: good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush.
Speaker 2: Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue. They miss
Speaker 2: a deep threat. Now, well, Christian McCaffrey is still not
Speaker 2: at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay the
Speaker 2: best kind of team to bet. They won and played poorly.
Speaker 2: You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home minus one
Speaker 2: and a half. Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys
Speaker 2: are all over the Niners here. The number was a
Speaker 2: two and a half.
Speaker 3: They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news
Speaker 3: because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder
Speaker 3: and was going to be day to day. He practiced
Speaker 3: yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa.
Speaker 3: Here was about brock Purty and the wise guys. Look
Speaker 3: at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger
Speaker 3: difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than
Speaker 3: the Packers, who are at the top of the luck
Speaker 3: rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games.
Speaker 3: They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot of
Speaker 3: blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play last week.
Speaker 3: The Niners have had terrible life, terrible turnovers at the
Speaker 3: wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time in multiple games. Right,
Speaker 3: So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically
Speaker 3: opposite in terms of how things have played out for them,
Speaker 3: and you ask a lot of wise guys and they'll
Speaker 3: say they have this game even on the road at
Speaker 3: Green Bay Power Raider to pick. So you're getting a
Speaker 3: point and a half of value right now on the Niners.
Speaker 3: So that's why the wise guys like them.
Speaker 2: Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage.
Speaker 2: I like Philly minus two and a half, it'll be
Speaker 2: a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense
Speaker 2: is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of
Speaker 2: pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.
Speaker 2: I think rosters it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a
Speaker 2: semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I don't
Speaker 2: have to love Nick Siriani. They are hummon. Saquon Barkley
Speaker 2: is playing the best football he's ever played in his life.
Speaker 2: They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind
Speaker 2: of surprised at the line. I thought it would be
Speaker 2: bigger Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's
Speaker 3: no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today,
Speaker 3: that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in
Speaker 3: on the Rams when it's at three, They've come in
Speaker 3: on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,
Speaker 3: and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams
Speaker 3: the past two weeks. I felt like they were in
Speaker 3: good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots
Speaker 3: against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not
Speaker 3: playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford but or
Speaker 3: not very well, and the key to this team, and
Speaker 3: you and I have talked about this. Sean McVay, for
Speaker 3: all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes
Speaker 3: to run the ball and that's the strength of this team.
Speaker 3: I don't see the Rams being able to run the
Speaker 3: ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by
Speaker 3: the way, Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five,
Speaker 3: the Eagles have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which
Speaker 3: is basically a fancy way of saying how many points
Speaker 3: they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play,
Speaker 3: to first, like this defense has finally figured out what
Speaker 3: he was trying to teach them and they're locked in
Speaker 3: In the back of the secondary. Cooper Degene is one
Speaker 3: of the top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus.
Speaker 3: That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,
Speaker 3: Cupp and pukuin Nukua.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I
Speaker 1: think it's a good spot for them.
Speaker 2: Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, go back on
Speaker 2: the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,
Speaker 2: now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.
Speaker 2: Special teams offense. They're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense.
Speaker 2: They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have
Speaker 2: like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it
Speaker 2: will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again.
Speaker 2: Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable.
Speaker 2: The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I
Speaker 2: like the Chargers plus two and a half. Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: Two and a half is not where the wise guys
Speaker 3: like it. They loved it at three. I think if
Speaker 3: you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of
Speaker 3: tempting fate, right, you would expect this to be a
Speaker 3: field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked
Speaker 3: about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the
Speaker 3: Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but
Speaker 3: who have they really played. We saw a little bit
Speaker 3: of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals
Speaker 3: did such a good job coming back and probably should
Speaker 3: have won that game if not for some really some
Speaker 3: bad miss kicks and a couple of bad flags, and
Speaker 3: the Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the
Speaker 3: Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done
Speaker 3: all year, which has beat them in the second half
Speaker 3: through the air? The talent I think where everyone is
Speaker 3: seeing what's going on with lab McConkie and are excited
Speaker 3: about him is a connection with Justin Herbert. But the
Speaker 3: Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year,
Speaker 3: so you're gonna have to expect them to do something
Speaker 3: they haven't done this year in the second half, which
Speaker 3: is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to
Speaker 3: do it and basically win the game because you're betting
Speaker 3: less than the field goal.
Speaker 1: So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.
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Speaker 2: I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as
Speaker 2: Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think. I think Drake May
Speaker 2: is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where
Speaker 2: you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow
Speaker 2: more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game.
Speaker 2: But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New
Speaker 2: England playing hard. People playing for stuff here, young team,
Speaker 2: young coach, young quarterback. They're not playing like they want
Speaker 2: the number one pick, nor do they need it because
Speaker 2: they have their quarterback. They're not They're not soft tanking
Speaker 2: for Shador Sanders. You know they have to upgrade positions
Speaker 2: defensive end and wide receiver, and it's a defensive end
Speaker 2: wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard,
Speaker 2: keep it close, Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven
Speaker 3: and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots.
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it.
Speaker 3: And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks.
Speaker 3: They were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great,
Speaker 3: they got to Matthew Stafford, but the Rams gave that
Speaker 3: game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns, they
Speaker 3: were missing snaps, they were thrown tipped interceptions.
Speaker 1: They did not play well.
Speaker 3: And if you look at the game against the Raiders
Speaker 3: last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points
Speaker 3: with three and a half minutes left, there was a
Speaker 3: miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the
Speaker 3: Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them
Speaker 3: instead of getting the Raiders the ball back, and that
Speaker 3: was sort of the end of the game, and they
Speaker 3: ended up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: But they were up by five points.
Speaker 3: The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if
Speaker 3: they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So
Speaker 3: I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I
Speaker 3: have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer.
Speaker 3: And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team
Speaker 3: is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to really know how to run the math.
Speaker 3: Yet when you're going for two, should you go for one,
Speaker 3: when do you want to go forward?
Speaker 1: And fourth down?
Speaker 3: He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of
Speaker 3: pivot spots for the game, and that's where the biggest
Speaker 3: challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover.
Speaker 1: But the wise guys are with you. They like the
Speaker 1: seven and a half.
Speaker 2: I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions.
Speaker 2: Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving, and they're you know,
Speaker 2: they're playing perfect football. The Colts. I thought Anthony Richardson
Speaker 2: looked as good as he has ever looked. I think
Speaker 2: they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of
Speaker 2: that is the Jets aren't very good, but I've been
Speaker 2: saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel.
Speaker 2: I really do like both of their lines, especially their
Speaker 2: O line. They've got playmakers on the outside. I could
Speaker 2: see the Lions going to head to Thanksgiving. They're blowing
Speaker 2: people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven
Speaker 2: and a half at home.
Speaker 1: Sharper Square couldn't be sharper sharpest player of the week.
Speaker 3: Like the Colts are one of those teams where a
Speaker 3: lot of wise guys when they look at this, certainly
Speaker 3: how I think about it when I'm deciding if I
Speaker 3: want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do
Speaker 3: I believe this is sort of the right side from
Speaker 3: a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against
Speaker 3: going to have an overinflated number because they're public because
Speaker 3: of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,
Speaker 3: nobody is winning at a better clip than the Lions.
Speaker 3: They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number one.
Speaker 1: Great. I like the Colts here. Number two.
Speaker 3: Do I believe there's a part of the game where
Speaker 3: they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line,
Speaker 3: best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has
Speaker 3: been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I
Speaker 3: think he played great last week. I think with his
Speaker 3: ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get
Speaker 3: pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will
Speaker 3: show you they are not a team that's getting a
Speaker 3: lot of pressure.
Speaker 1: So that's number two. I'd like that number three.
Speaker 3: There are a ton of trends that back this up,
Speaker 3: and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling, but in this case,
Speaker 3: like you got teams who are road favorites the game
Speaker 3: after being a double digit favorite in any location. They've
Speaker 3: had significant against the spread struggles the past decade, forty
Speaker 3: three percent against the spread. Teams that are averaging thirty
Speaker 3: three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage those
Speaker 3: teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,
Speaker 3: and if they are coming off a double digit win,
Speaker 3: twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of
Speaker 3: matchup reasons. There's a lot of inflation reasons, then there's
Speaker 3: trend reasons.
Speaker 1: So checks out all the boxes.
Speaker 2: Okay, a game I want you to talk. Be into
Speaker 2: Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a
Speaker 2: divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young
Speaker 2: teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's
Speaker 2: a really interesting team right now, so we know their
Speaker 2: defense has been exceptional. Bon Nicks is making leaps like big,
Speaker 2: no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton texts me this week
Speaker 2: and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm is
Speaker 2: way better than anybody understands. Greg co cell echoed that
Speaker 2: this week he's like he's making NFL elite throws down
Speaker 2: the middle. Of the field, hard deep throws. Arm is
Speaker 2: not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the
Speaker 2: Broncos are the side for me. Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to
Speaker 3: this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed
Speaker 3: with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened
Speaker 3: by that Chiefs loss. And we saw this week right
Speaker 3: like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on
Speaker 3: the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that
Speaker 3: game and that and it matched right like it was
Speaker 3: a Falcons team that was coming in and they were
Speaker 3: supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew
Speaker 3: them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same
Speaker 3: way this week about about the Raiders. I think the
Speaker 3: number's gotten too high. It's at six, and that's because
Speaker 3: the Wise guys have been betting it up. There's no
Speaker 3: matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like their terrible team,
Speaker 3: they seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner
Speaker 3: Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four lost fumbles
Speaker 3: this year, which is I think second in the NFL.
Speaker 3: He's got I think nine interceptions, which is third in
Speaker 3: the NFL thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the script for
Speaker 3: this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve points digit something,
Speaker 3: has a chance to put his team and get him
Speaker 3: through the back door, and he does something that costs
Speaker 3: his team the game. And you know, he loses the ball,
Speaker 3: he fumbles whatever. So you're probably on the right side,
Speaker 3: but I think you've lost the value in the number.
Speaker 2: Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I
Speaker 2: like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,
Speaker 2: but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know,
Speaker 2: Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though
Speaker 2: he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,
Speaker 2: and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him.
Speaker 2: But give me something else.
Speaker 3: Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say,
Speaker 3: Like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what
Speaker 3: they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks
Speaker 3: that he played. They like the idea that this is
Speaker 3: also a really good run blocking unit. And while the
Speaker 3: Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still
Speaker 3: an opportunity here for the Chiefs, and if they aren't
Speaker 3: running a very well, they have liked what they've seen.
Speaker 3: The wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce
Speaker 3: Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially
Speaker 3: against the chief secondary that.
Speaker 1: Isn't very good.
Speaker 3: You got to go on the road win is a
Speaker 3: double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically
Speaker 3: now this year, double digit favorites are rushing like it's been.
Speaker 2: That's my take. At the top of this podcast was
Speaker 2: the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference
Speaker 2: between Denver and Orlando is significant.
Speaker 3: Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats
Speaker 3: here then if you're going to be talking about this,
Speaker 3: because it helps illuminate it a little bit.
Speaker 1: So double digit favorites are five.
Speaker 3: To oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated,
Speaker 3: not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the
Speaker 3: year and twenty seasons. Only the second time in the
Speaker 3: past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they
Speaker 3: are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to
Speaker 3: go back to nineteen fifty that is the last time
Speaker 3: double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks.
Speaker 3: Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The
Speaker 3: point spread was less than a decade old in nineteen fifty.
Speaker 3: It was invented in like nineteen forty one by a
Speaker 3: commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time there was
Speaker 3: this kind of double digit cover streak was nineteen fifty
Speaker 3: and the spread was an infant. It barely existed. But
Speaker 3: that's how unprecedented this is.
Speaker 2: People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.
Speaker 3: I mean, that was just exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad,
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, So they're going to be on this. So
Speaker 3: but the point is the wise guys are going to
Speaker 3: be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend.
Speaker 3: Same thing with the Titans, by the way, they don't
Speaker 3: love it, but they're going to bet against how bad
Speaker 3: the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to
Speaker 3: bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating
Speaker 3: the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We
Speaker 3: see j Stroud this year. They do like the Titans
Speaker 3: defense talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves
Speaker 3: in the foot every week. So if they can get
Speaker 3: one of these breaks. That's the difference in a game
Speaker 3: where the number is more than a touchdown.
Speaker 2: Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.
Speaker 1: Good to see you too, brother.
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