WEBVTT - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 12!

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<v Speaker 1>The volume.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's twenty twenty four, and let's talk about something

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<v Speaker 2>winning in the NFL is hard. We know that quarterbacking

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<v Speaker 2>for Thepeople dot com, slash Colin or dial pound law

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<v Speaker 2>from your cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people

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<v Speaker 2>dot com, slash Colin, or pound law, pound five to

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<v Speaker 2>This is a paid advertisement, all right. Sharper Square, co

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<v Speaker 2>host of the favorites Chad Milman, all odds provided by DraftKings.

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<v Speaker 2>So I had a rant today on my very popular

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<v Speaker 2>syndicated radio show Milman.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, no I'm familiar. I've heard it's big.

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<v Speaker 2>People are talking. So my take is what you don't

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<v Speaker 2>want to become is the NBA a very strong top,

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<v Speaker 2>a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at

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<v Speaker 2>the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the

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<v Speaker 2>Eastern Conference. Now, and I said, as the NFL has

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<v Speaker 2>become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and

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<v Speaker 2>changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are

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<v Speaker 2>getting to be a little nbaish in the NFL. A

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<v Speaker 2>very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty

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<v Speaker 2>soft middle of like the Seahawks, Rams, and nine teams

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<v Speaker 2>with two or three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking.

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<v Speaker 2>And so I have never been prone to big favorites.

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<v Speaker 2>But Detroit last week at minus fourteen felt like one

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<v Speaker 2>of the smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and

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<v Speaker 2>a half. So I locked it in at ten this

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<v Speaker 2>week on the Herd. But I think one team's soft

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<v Speaker 2>tanking and one team is fighting for a playoff spot.

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<v Speaker 2>One team is now on a backup and not a

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<v Speaker 2>great backup. The other team has one of the better

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<v Speaker 2>rookie quarterbacks in a long time. That team's at home

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<v Speaker 2>playing for something. I know it's not sharp sharper square,

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<v Speaker 2>but I like the commanders here.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,

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<v Speaker 3>it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.

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<v Speaker 3>This is the week where they've decided they love massive

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<v Speaker 3>divisional favorites.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys

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<v Speaker 1>like the Cowboys.

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<v Speaker 3>And part of this is, yes, the number is so big,

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<v Speaker 3>but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he

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<v Speaker 3>was not very good against the Eagles last week on

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<v Speaker 3>Thursday Night.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, like.

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<v Speaker 3>Since that opening four game stretch where he was completing

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<v Speaker 3>eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete

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<v Speaker 3>more than seventy percent of his passes in a game.

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<v Speaker 1>And so you have to ask yourself, as.

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<v Speaker 3>He started to come back down to earth, has teams

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<v Speaker 3>started to figure him out.

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<v Speaker 1>That's really the key to this game.

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<v Speaker 3>And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did

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<v Speaker 3>last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the

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<v Speaker 3>first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of

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<v Speaker 3>being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in

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<v Speaker 3>the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups

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<v Speaker 3>in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters

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<v Speaker 3>that we see in the league. But the wise guys

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<v Speaker 3>are going to be on the Cowboys here because this

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<v Speaker 3>number in a division game is just too big for

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<v Speaker 3>a rookie quarterback who's who's steadily declined as the season

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<v Speaker 3>has gone on.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the way, the Rookie of.

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<v Speaker 3>The Year ares odds are a great way to look

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<v Speaker 3>at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up

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<v Speaker 3>in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation?

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<v Speaker 3>So the market is starting to recognize some of that.

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<v Speaker 2>So I like the Bears plus three and a half

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<v Speaker 2>hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that

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<v Speaker 2>they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that

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<v Speaker 2>they schemed up, layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they

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<v Speaker 2>just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy,

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<v Speaker 2>they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have

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<v Speaker 2>been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they

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<v Speaker 2>have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and

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<v Speaker 2>I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC

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<v Speaker 2>change mattered sharper square.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.

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<v Speaker 3>So the wise guys bet at five, they bet at

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<v Speaker 3>four and a half, they better at four. They're still

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<v Speaker 3>betting it a little bit at three at three and

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<v Speaker 3>a half. If it gets any further than this, if

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<v Speaker 3>I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you

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<v Speaker 3>are locking in the Bears at three and a half,

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<v Speaker 3>you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.

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<v Speaker 3>You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's

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<v Speaker 3>been in that game against Tennessee last week. They covered

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<v Speaker 3>the spread, but not because of anything Sam Donald did.

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<v Speaker 3>He had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,

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<v Speaker 3>So he is not having a very good sort of

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<v Speaker 3>second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The

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<v Speaker 3>problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I

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<v Speaker 3>challenge the wise guy perception on this is they like

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<v Speaker 3>the Bears largely because they think that Caleb did.

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<v Speaker 1>What you just said. He looked better.

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<v Speaker 3>He was getting rid of the ball in less than

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<v Speaker 3>two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's

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<v Speaker 3>been doing that, right, Can they really block against a

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<v Speaker 3>Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than

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<v Speaker 3>the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams

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<v Speaker 3>this season, when he is facing a team that has

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<v Speaker 3>a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive

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<v Speaker 3>players that end in a sack, When he's facing a

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<v Speaker 3>team that is a sack percentage of more than two

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<v Speaker 3>point two percent, he's one and six. So you're looking

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<v Speaker 3>at a guy who was facing a team that is

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<v Speaker 3>a sack percentage of five and a half percent. A

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<v Speaker 3>lot of times, it's not even because they're bringing pressure,

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<v Speaker 3>they're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just

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<v Speaker 3>confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks.

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<v Speaker 3>So to me, that's really the matchup you have to

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<v Speaker 3>be careful of. It's why I'm staying away from this game.

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<v Speaker 3>I just don't think there's any value in this number.

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<v Speaker 3>Too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play.

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<v Speaker 2>Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks, I've said this

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<v Speaker 2>for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.

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<v Speaker 2>I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.

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<v Speaker 2>Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll

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<v Speaker 2>move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.

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<v Speaker 2>He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.

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<v Speaker 2>Coseel said it on my show this week. They don't

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<v Speaker 2>outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They are

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<v Speaker 2>really smartly schemed, and I think this is an offense

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<v Speaker 2>that is young in spots that is growing in confidence.

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<v Speaker 2>I like teams that have an identity. As the season

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<v Speaker 2>goes on, it takes team's time. Even the Patriots at

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<v Speaker 2>Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's

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<v Speaker 2>time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams

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<v Speaker 2>still don't have it. Seattle doesn't. Arizona does sharper square.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I

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<v Speaker 3>agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly

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<v Speaker 3>who they are right they are even on defense, they

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<v Speaker 3>are still a physical football team. James Connor is a

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<v Speaker 3>really violent runner, and they know if they are able

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<v Speaker 3>to get him the ball and be effective in the

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<v Speaker 3>running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in

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<v Speaker 3>the passing game.

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<v Speaker 1>And they're just going to be the better team.

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<v Speaker 3>Because of those two players, especially against a team like

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<v Speaker 3>the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against

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<v Speaker 3>the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells

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<v Speaker 3>you how much they don't know who they are. Is like,

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<v Speaker 3>they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a

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<v Speaker 3>buy in advance of a huge division game. And I

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<v Speaker 3>would not take yet anything from the Seahawks win against

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<v Speaker 3>the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the

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<v Speaker 3>Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that impacted

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<v Speaker 3>the game tremendously. So Whise guys are with you. The

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<v Speaker 3>Cardinals inside, they're you know, pun intended. They're putting the

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<v Speaker 3>cards on the table here right because they can take

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<v Speaker 3>significant control of that division coming off of by with

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of hype on this team right now, so

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<v Speaker 3>it's a big step up game for them.

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<v Speaker 2>I like green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's

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<v Speaker 2>just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.

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<v Speaker 2>Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynchpin

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<v Speaker 2>of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged

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<v Speaker 2>up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this

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<v Speaker 2>about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're

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<v Speaker 2>a five and five football team, and they're not very

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<v Speaker 2>good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush.

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<v Speaker 2>Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue. They miss

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<v Speaker 2>a deep threat. Now, well, Christian McCaffrey is still not

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<v Speaker 2>at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay the

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<v Speaker 2>best kind of team to bet. They won and played poorly.

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<v Speaker 2>You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home minus one

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<v Speaker 2>and a half. Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys

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<v Speaker 2>are all over the Niners here. The number was a

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half.

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<v Speaker 3>They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news

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<v Speaker 3>because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder

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<v Speaker 3>and was going to be day to day. He practiced

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<v Speaker 3>yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa.

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<v Speaker 3>Here was about brock Purty and the wise guys. Look

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<v Speaker 3>at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger

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<v Speaker 3>difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than

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<v Speaker 3>the Packers, who are at the top of the luck

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<v Speaker 3>rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games.

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<v Speaker 3>They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play last week.

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<v Speaker 3>The Niners have had terrible life, terrible turnovers at the

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<v Speaker 3>wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time in multiple games. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically

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<v Speaker 3>opposite in terms of how things have played out for them,

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<v Speaker 3>and you ask a lot of wise guys and they'll

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<v Speaker 3>say they have this game even on the road at

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<v Speaker 3>Green Bay Power Raider to pick. So you're getting a

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<v Speaker 3>point and a half of value right now on the Niners.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's why the wise guys like them.

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<v Speaker 2>Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage.

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<v Speaker 2>I like Philly minus two and a half, it'll be

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<v Speaker 2>a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense

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<v Speaker 2>is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of

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<v Speaker 2>pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.

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<v Speaker 2>I think rosters it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a

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<v Speaker 2>semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>have to love Nick Siriani. They are hummon. Saquon Barkley

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<v Speaker 2>is playing the best football he's ever played in his life.

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<v Speaker 2>They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind

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<v Speaker 2>of surprised at the line. I thought it would be

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<v Speaker 2>bigger Sharper square.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's

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<v Speaker 3>no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today,

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<v Speaker 3>that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in

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<v Speaker 3>on the Rams when it's at three, They've come in

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<v Speaker 3>on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.

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<v Speaker 3>I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams

0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:30.400
<v Speaker 3>the past two weeks. I felt like they were in

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.200
<v Speaker 3>good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots

0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:36.400
<v Speaker 3>against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not

0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.000
<v Speaker 3>playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford but or

0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 3>not very well, and the key to this team, and

0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 3>you and I have talked about this. Sean McVay, for

0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 3>all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 3>to run the ball and that's the strength of this team.

0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:52.719
<v Speaker 3>I don't see the Rams being able to run the

0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.679
<v Speaker 3>ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by

0:12:55.720 --> 0:13:00.640
<v Speaker 3>the way, Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five,

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:04.360
<v Speaker 3>the Eagles have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which

0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.600
<v Speaker 3>is basically a fancy way of saying how many points

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:10.000
<v Speaker 3>they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play,

0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 3>to first, like this defense has finally figured out what

0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:18.200
<v Speaker 3>he was trying to teach them and they're locked in

0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:21.080
<v Speaker 3>In the back of the secondary. Cooper Degene is one

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.240
<v Speaker 3>of the top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus.

0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.559
<v Speaker 3>That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,

0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:29.440
<v Speaker 3>Cupp and pukuin Nukua.

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.240
<v Speaker 1>So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I

0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:33.319
<v Speaker 1>think it's a good spot for them.

0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:37.679
<v Speaker 2>Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, go back on

0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 2>the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:44.040
<v Speaker 2>now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 2>Special teams offense. They're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense.

0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 2>They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have

0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:56.360
<v Speaker 2>like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it

0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:00.520
<v Speaker 2>will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again.

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.679
<v Speaker 2>Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable.

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:10.280
<v Speaker 2>The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.680
<v Speaker 2>like the Chargers plus two and a half. Sharper Square.

0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 3>Two and a half is not where the wise guys

0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:20.440
<v Speaker 3>like it. They loved it at three. I think if

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.600
<v Speaker 3>you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of

0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 3>tempting fate, right, you would expect this to be a

0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:28.840
<v Speaker 3>field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:30.760
<v Speaker 3>about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the

0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 3>Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 3>who have they really played. We saw a little bit

0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:41.280
<v Speaker 3>of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals

0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:43.560
<v Speaker 3>did such a good job coming back and probably should

0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.760
<v Speaker 3>have won that game if not for some really some

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.680
<v Speaker 3>bad miss kicks and a couple of bad flags, and

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.560
<v Speaker 3>the Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.800
<v Speaker 3>Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done

0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.440
<v Speaker 3>all year, which has beat them in the second half

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 3>through the air? The talent I think where everyone is

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 3>seeing what's going on with lab McConkie and are excited

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 3>about him is a connection with Justin Herbert. But the

0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:09.680
<v Speaker 3>Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year,

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.000
<v Speaker 3>so you're gonna have to expect them to do something

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.640
<v Speaker 3>they haven't done this year in the second half, which

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:17.880
<v Speaker 3>is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to

0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 3>do it and basically win the game because you're betting

0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 3>less than the field goal.

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.960
<v Speaker 1>So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.

0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:29.320
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<v Speaker 2>I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 2>Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think. I think Drake May

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:15.160
<v Speaker 2>is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where

0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:20.280
<v Speaker 2>you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 2>more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game.

0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 2>But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:30.160
<v Speaker 2>England playing hard. People playing for stuff here, young team,

0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:34.320
<v Speaker 2>young coach, young quarterback. They're not playing like they want

0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 2>the number one pick, nor do they need it because

0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.879
<v Speaker 2>they have their quarterback. They're not They're not soft tanking

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:43.720
<v Speaker 2>for Shador Sanders. You know they have to upgrade positions

0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.880
<v Speaker 2>defensive end and wide receiver, and it's a defensive end

0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:51.920
<v Speaker 2>wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard,

0:17:52.000 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 2>keep it close, Sharper square.

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven

0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:58.440
<v Speaker 3>and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots.

0:17:58.520 --> 0:17:59.840
<v Speaker 1>There's no doubt about it.

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:03.000
<v Speaker 3>And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks.

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:07.560
<v Speaker 3>They were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great,

0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:10.760
<v Speaker 3>they got to Matthew Stafford, but the Rams gave that

0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.320
<v Speaker 3>game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns, they

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.920
<v Speaker 3>were missing snaps, they were thrown tipped interceptions.

0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:19.680
<v Speaker 1>They did not play well.

0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 3>And if you look at the game against the Raiders

0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:25.080
<v Speaker 3>last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points

0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 3>with three and a half minutes left, there was a

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 3>miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the

0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.080
<v Speaker 3>Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them

0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:38.399
<v Speaker 3>instead of getting the Raiders the ball back, and that

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 3>was sort of the end of the game, and they

0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:42.000
<v Speaker 3>ended up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is.

0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>But they were up by five points.

0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:46.959
<v Speaker 3>The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if

0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:50.240
<v Speaker 3>they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So

0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 3>I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I

0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:57.600
<v Speaker 3>have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer.

0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:01.919
<v Speaker 3>And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team

0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 3>is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It

0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 3>doesn't seem to really know how to run the math.

0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.720
<v Speaker 3>Yet when you're going for two, should you go for one,

0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:14.880
<v Speaker 3>when do you want to go forward?

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:15.680
<v Speaker 1>And fourth down?

0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:20.720
<v Speaker 3>He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of

0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:25.000
<v Speaker 3>pivot spots for the game, and that's where the biggest

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:27.400
<v Speaker 3>challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover.

0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:29.720
<v Speaker 1>But the wise guys are with you. They like the

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:30.400
<v Speaker 1>seven and a half.

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:33.880
<v Speaker 2>I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions.

0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 2>Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving, and they're you know,

0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 2>they're playing perfect football. The Colts. I thought Anthony Richardson

0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:45.600
<v Speaker 2>looked as good as he has ever looked. I think

0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.679
<v Speaker 2>they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of

0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:50.360
<v Speaker 2>that is the Jets aren't very good, but I've been

0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 2>saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel.

0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:56.080
<v Speaker 2>I really do like both of their lines, especially their

0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:59.280
<v Speaker 2>O line. They've got playmakers on the outside. I could

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:01.840
<v Speaker 2>see the Lions going to head to Thanksgiving. They're blowing

0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:04.320
<v Speaker 2>people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven

0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:05.120
<v Speaker 2>and a half at home.

0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:08.200
<v Speaker 1>Sharper Square couldn't be sharper sharpest player of the week.

0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:11.639
<v Speaker 3>Like the Colts are one of those teams where a

0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:13.600
<v Speaker 3>lot of wise guys when they look at this, certainly

0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:16.080
<v Speaker 3>how I think about it when I'm deciding if I

0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:20.000
<v Speaker 3>want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do

0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:24.320
<v Speaker 3>I believe this is sort of the right side from

0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:28.360
<v Speaker 3>a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against

0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:32.280
<v Speaker 3>going to have an overinflated number because they're public because

0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:34.920
<v Speaker 3>of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,

0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 3>nobody is winning at a better clip than the Lions.

0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:40.720
<v Speaker 3>They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.

0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:44.119
<v Speaker 3>That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number one.

0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:46.400
<v Speaker 1>Great. I like the Colts here. Number two.

0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:48.720
<v Speaker 3>Do I believe there's a part of the game where

0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 3>they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line,

0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:56.119
<v Speaker 3>best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has

0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:58.600
<v Speaker 3>been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I

0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:00.960
<v Speaker 3>think he played great last week. I think with his

0:21:01.040 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 3>ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get

0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.920
<v Speaker 3>pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will

0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:09.920
<v Speaker 3>show you they are not a team that's getting a

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:10.479
<v Speaker 3>lot of pressure.

0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.400
<v Speaker 1>So that's number two. I'd like that number three.

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.040
<v Speaker 3>There are a ton of trends that back this up,

0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:21.800
<v Speaker 3>and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling, but in this case,

0:21:21.960 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 3>like you got teams who are road favorites the game

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:29.880
<v Speaker 3>after being a double digit favorite in any location. They've

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:33.639
<v Speaker 3>had significant against the spread struggles the past decade, forty

0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:37.639
<v Speaker 3>three percent against the spread. Teams that are averaging thirty

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:42.080
<v Speaker 3>three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage those

0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:46.960
<v Speaker 3>teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,

0:21:47.080 --> 0:21:48.920
<v Speaker 3>and if they are coming off a double digit win,

0:21:49.080 --> 0:21:51.720
<v Speaker 3>twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of

0:21:51.720 --> 0:21:54.160
<v Speaker 3>matchup reasons. There's a lot of inflation reasons, then there's

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:54.880
<v Speaker 3>trend reasons.

0:21:54.880 --> 0:21:56.880
<v Speaker 1>So checks out all the boxes.

0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.520
<v Speaker 2>Okay, a game I want you to talk. Be into

0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.040
<v Speaker 2>Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a

0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:06.880
<v Speaker 2>divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young

0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:11.840
<v Speaker 2>teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's

0:22:11.880 --> 0:22:14.360
<v Speaker 2>a really interesting team right now, so we know their

0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:20.080
<v Speaker 2>defense has been exceptional. Bon Nicks is making leaps like big,

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:24.920
<v Speaker 2>no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton texts me this week

0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 2>and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm is

0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:31.679
<v Speaker 2>way better than anybody understands. Greg co cell echoed that

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:36.240
<v Speaker 2>this week he's like he's making NFL elite throws down

0:22:36.280 --> 0:22:39.960
<v Speaker 2>the middle. Of the field, hard deep throws. Arm is

0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 2>not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the

0:22:42.560 --> 0:22:44.600
<v Speaker 2>Broncos are the side for me. Sharper square.

0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to

0:22:49.040 --> 0:22:53.440
<v Speaker 3>this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed

0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:57.800
<v Speaker 3>with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened

0:22:57.840 --> 0:23:00.680
<v Speaker 3>by that Chiefs loss. And we saw this week right

0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:04.399
<v Speaker 3>like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on

0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:07.239
<v Speaker 3>the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:09.679
<v Speaker 3>game and that and it matched right like it was

0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 3>a Falcons team that was coming in and they were

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:14.880
<v Speaker 3>supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew

0:23:14.920 --> 0:23:17.360
<v Speaker 3>them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same

0:23:17.400 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 3>way this week about about the Raiders. I think the

0:23:20.040 --> 0:23:23.159
<v Speaker 3>number's gotten too high. It's at six, and that's because

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:27.399
<v Speaker 3>the Wise guys have been betting it up. There's no

0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 3>matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like their terrible team,

0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:35.359
<v Speaker 3>they seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner

0:23:35.400 --> 0:23:41.280
<v Speaker 3>Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four lost fumbles

0:23:41.320 --> 0:23:44.480
<v Speaker 3>this year, which is I think second in the NFL.

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:48.280
<v Speaker 3>He's got I think nine interceptions, which is third in

0:23:48.320 --> 0:23:54.199
<v Speaker 3>the NFL thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the script for

0:23:54.400 --> 0:24:01.000
<v Speaker 3>this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve points digit something,

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:03.879
<v Speaker 3>has a chance to put his team and get him

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 3>through the back door, and he does something that costs

0:24:07.040 --> 0:24:09.600
<v Speaker 3>his team the game. And you know, he loses the ball,

0:24:09.600 --> 0:24:13.560
<v Speaker 3>he fumbles whatever. So you're probably on the right side,

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:15.439
<v Speaker 3>but I think you've lost the value in the number.

0:24:15.840 --> 0:24:18.719
<v Speaker 2>Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:21.639
<v Speaker 2>like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:24.560
<v Speaker 2>but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know,

0:24:24.600 --> 0:24:27.680
<v Speaker 2>Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:30.560
<v Speaker 2>he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,

0:24:30.600 --> 0:24:32.720
<v Speaker 2>and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him.

0:24:32.720 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 2>But give me something else.

0:24:34.160 --> 0:24:36.880
<v Speaker 3>Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say,

0:24:37.119 --> 0:24:40.600
<v Speaker 3>Like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:43.480
<v Speaker 3>they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks

0:24:43.480 --> 0:24:46.439
<v Speaker 3>that he played. They like the idea that this is

0:24:46.480 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 3>also a really good run blocking unit. And while the

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:56.480
<v Speaker 3>Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still

0:24:56.480 --> 0:24:59.399
<v Speaker 3>an opportunity here for the Chiefs, and if they aren't

0:24:59.480 --> 0:25:02.000
<v Speaker 3>running a very well, they have liked what they've seen.

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 3>The wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce

0:25:03.800 --> 0:25:07.400
<v Speaker 3>Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially

0:25:07.440 --> 0:25:08.720
<v Speaker 3>against the chief secondary that.

0:25:08.760 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Isn't very good.

0:25:09.760 --> 0:25:12.120
<v Speaker 3>You got to go on the road win is a

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:17.960
<v Speaker 3>double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically

0:25:18.040 --> 0:25:24.520
<v Speaker 3>now this year, double digit favorites are rushing like it's been.

0:25:24.920 --> 0:25:27.159
<v Speaker 2>That's my take. At the top of this podcast was

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.240
<v Speaker 2>the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference

0:25:30.280 --> 0:25:34.200
<v Speaker 2>between Denver and Orlando is significant.

0:25:35.200 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 3>Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats

0:25:37.440 --> 0:25:39.440
<v Speaker 3>here then if you're going to be talking about this,

0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:42.840
<v Speaker 3>because it helps illuminate it a little bit.

0:25:43.280 --> 0:25:47.000
<v Speaker 1>So double digit favorites are five.

0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:49.640
<v Speaker 3>To oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated,

0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:53.520
<v Speaker 3>not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the

0:25:53.600 --> 0:25:55.720
<v Speaker 3>year and twenty seasons. Only the second time in the

0:25:55.760 --> 0:26:00.160
<v Speaker 3>past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they

0:26:00.160 --> 0:26:03.679
<v Speaker 3>are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to

0:26:03.720 --> 0:26:07.480
<v Speaker 3>go back to nineteen fifty that is the last time

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:11.919
<v Speaker 3>double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks.

0:26:12.200 --> 0:26:16.040
<v Speaker 3>Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The

0:26:16.080 --> 0:26:21.160
<v Speaker 3>point spread was less than a decade old in nineteen fifty.

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:24.720
<v Speaker 3>It was invented in like nineteen forty one by a

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:29.679
<v Speaker 3>commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time there was

0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:36.360
<v Speaker 3>this kind of double digit cover streak was nineteen fifty

0:26:36.880 --> 0:26:40.680
<v Speaker 3>and the spread was an infant. It barely existed. But

0:26:40.960 --> 0:26:42.439
<v Speaker 3>that's how unprecedented this is.

0:26:42.480 --> 0:26:44.760
<v Speaker 2>People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.

0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:52.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, that was just exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad,

0:26:52.400 --> 0:26:53.719
<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, So they're going to be on this. So

0:26:53.800 --> 0:26:55.919
<v Speaker 3>but the point is the wise guys are going to

0:26:55.920 --> 0:26:58.000
<v Speaker 3>be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend.

0:26:58.840 --> 0:27:01.080
<v Speaker 3>Same thing with the Titans, by the way, they don't

0:27:01.119 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 3>love it, but they're going to bet against how bad

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:06.000
<v Speaker 3>the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to

0:27:06.040 --> 0:27:10.000
<v Speaker 3>bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating

0:27:10.000 --> 0:27:12.639
<v Speaker 3>the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We

0:27:12.720 --> 0:27:15.479
<v Speaker 3>see j Stroud this year. They do like the Titans

0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:18.560
<v Speaker 3>defense talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:20.400
<v Speaker 3>in the foot every week. So if they can get

0:27:20.520 --> 0:27:23.400
<v Speaker 3>one of these breaks. That's the difference in a game

0:27:23.440 --> 0:27:24.919
<v Speaker 3>where the number is more than a touchdown.

0:27:25.720 --> 0:27:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.

0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>Good to see you too, brother.

0:27:31.560 --> 0:27:34.760
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