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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: So it's twenty twenty four, and let's talk about something

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Speaker 2: really really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan

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Speaker 2: claim with Morgan and Morgan is really really easy. Like

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Speaker 2: winning in the NFL is hard. We know that quarterbacking

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Speaker 2: in the NFL is hard, submitting a claim is easy.

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Speaker 2: You're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee

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Speaker 2: is free unless they win. For more information, go to

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Speaker 2: for Thepeople dot com, slash Colin or dial pound law

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Speaker 2: from your cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people

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Speaker 2: dot com, slash Colin, or pound law, pound five to

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Speaker 2: nine from your cell Morgan and Morgan as a proven

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Speaker 2: track record of fighting for you to get a full

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Speaker 2: and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life.

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Speaker 2: This is a paid advertisement, all right. Sharper Square, co

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Speaker 2: host of the favorites Chad Milman, all odds provided by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: So I had a rant today on my very popular

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Speaker 2: syndicated radio show Milman.

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Speaker 1: Now, no I'm familiar. I've heard it's big.

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Speaker 2: People are talking. So my take is what you don't

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Speaker 2: want to become is the NBA a very strong top,

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Speaker 2: a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at

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Speaker 2: the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the

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Speaker 2: Eastern Conference. Now, and I said, as the NFL has

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Speaker 2: become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and

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Speaker 2: changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are

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Speaker 2: getting to be a little nbaish in the NFL. A

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Speaker 2: very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty

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Speaker 2: soft middle of like the Seahawks, Rams, and nine teams

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Speaker 2: with two or three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking.

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Speaker 2: And so I have never been prone to big favorites.

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Speaker 2: But Detroit last week at minus fourteen felt like one

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Speaker 2: of the smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and

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Speaker 2: a half. So I locked it in at ten this

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Speaker 2: week on the Herd. But I think one team's soft

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Speaker 2: tanking and one team is fighting for a playoff spot.

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Speaker 2: One team is now on a backup and not a

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Speaker 2: great backup. The other team has one of the better

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterbacks in a long time. That team's at home

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Speaker 2: playing for something. I know it's not sharp sharper square,

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Speaker 2: but I like the commanders here.

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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,

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Speaker 3: it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.

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Speaker 3: This is the week where they've decided they love massive

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Speaker 3: divisional favorites.

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Speaker 1: I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys

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Speaker 1: like the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: And part of this is, yes, the number is so big,

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Speaker 3: but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he

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Speaker 3: was not very good against the Eagles last week on

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night.

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Speaker 1: In fact, like.

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Speaker 3: Since that opening four game stretch where he was completing

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Speaker 3: eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete

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Speaker 3: more than seventy percent of his passes in a game.

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Speaker 1: And so you have to ask yourself, as.

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Speaker 3: He started to come back down to earth, has teams

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Speaker 3: started to figure him out.

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Speaker 1: That's really the key to this game.

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Speaker 3: And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did

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Speaker 3: last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the

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Speaker 3: first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of

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Speaker 3: being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in

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Speaker 3: the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups

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Speaker 3: in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters

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Speaker 3: that we see in the league. But the wise guys

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Speaker 3: are going to be on the Cowboys here because this

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Speaker 3: number in a division game is just too big for

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Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback who's who's steadily declined as the season

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Speaker 3: has gone on.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, the Rookie of.

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Speaker 3: The Year ares odds are a great way to look

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Speaker 3: at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up

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Speaker 3: in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation?

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Speaker 3: So the market is starting to recognize some of that.

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Speaker 2: So I like the Bears plus three and a half

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Speaker 2: hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that

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Speaker 2: they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that

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Speaker 2: they schemed up, layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they

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Speaker 2: just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the

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Speaker 2: luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy,

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Speaker 2: they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God.

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Speaker 2: I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have

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Speaker 2: been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they

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Speaker 2: have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and

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Speaker 2: I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC

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Speaker 2: change mattered sharper square.

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Speaker 3: So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.

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Speaker 3: So the wise guys bet at five, they bet at

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Speaker 3: four and a half, they better at four. They're still

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Speaker 3: betting it a little bit at three at three and

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Speaker 3: a half. If it gets any further than this, if

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Speaker 3: I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you

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Speaker 3: are locking in the Bears at three and a half,

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Speaker 3: you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.

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Speaker 3: You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's

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Speaker 3: been in that game against Tennessee last week. They covered

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Speaker 3: the spread, but not because of anything Sam Donald did.

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Speaker 3: He had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty

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Speaker 3: percent of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,

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Speaker 3: So he is not having a very good sort of

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Speaker 3: second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The

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Speaker 3: problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I

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Speaker 3: challenge the wise guy perception on this is they like

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Speaker 3: the Bears largely because they think that Caleb did.

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Speaker 1: What you just said. He looked better.

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Speaker 3: He was getting rid of the ball in less than

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Speaker 3: two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's

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Speaker 3: been doing that, right, Can they really block against a

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Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than

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Speaker 3: the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams

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Speaker 3: this season, when he is facing a team that has

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Speaker 3: a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive

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Speaker 3: players that end in a sack, When he's facing a

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Speaker 3: team that is a sack percentage of more than two

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Speaker 3: point two percent, he's one and six. So you're looking

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Speaker 3: at a guy who was facing a team that is

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Speaker 3: a sack percentage of five and a half percent. A

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Speaker 3: lot of times, it's not even because they're bringing pressure,

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Speaker 3: they're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just

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Speaker 3: confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: So to me, that's really the matchup you have to

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Speaker 3: be careful of. It's why I'm staying away from this game.

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Speaker 3: I just don't think there's any value in this number.

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Speaker 3: Too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play.

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Speaker 2: Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks, I've said this

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Speaker 2: for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.

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Speaker 2: I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll

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Speaker 2: move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.

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Speaker 2: He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.

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Speaker 2: Coseel said it on my show this week. They don't

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Speaker 2: outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They are

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Speaker 2: really smartly schemed, and I think this is an offense

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Speaker 2: that is young in spots that is growing in confidence.

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Speaker 2: I like teams that have an identity. As the season

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Speaker 2: goes on, it takes team's time. Even the Patriots at

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Speaker 2: Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's

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Speaker 2: time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams

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Speaker 2: still don't have it. Seattle doesn't. Arizona does sharper square.

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Speaker 3: So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I

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Speaker 3: agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly

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Speaker 3: who they are right they are even on defense, they

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Speaker 3: are still a physical football team. James Connor is a

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Speaker 3: really violent runner, and they know if they are able

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Speaker 3: to get him the ball and be effective in the

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Speaker 3: running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in

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Speaker 3: the passing game.

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Speaker 1: And they're just going to be the better team.

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Speaker 3: Because of those two players, especially against a team like

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against

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Speaker 3: the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells

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Speaker 3: you how much they don't know who they are. Is like,

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Speaker 3: they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a

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Speaker 3: buy in advance of a huge division game. And I

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Speaker 3: would not take yet anything from the Seahawks win against

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Speaker 3: the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the

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Speaker 3: Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that impacted

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Speaker 3: the game tremendously. So Whise guys are with you. The

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Speaker 3: Cardinals inside, they're you know, pun intended. They're putting the

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Speaker 3: cards on the table here right because they can take

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Speaker 3: significant control of that division coming off of by with

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Speaker 3: a lot of hype on this team right now, so

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Speaker 3: it's a big step up game for them.

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Speaker 2: I like green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,

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Speaker 2: if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's

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Speaker 2: just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.

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Speaker 2: Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynchpin

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Speaker 2: of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged

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Speaker 2: up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this

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Speaker 2: about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're

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Speaker 2: a five and five football team, and they're not very

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Speaker 2: good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush.

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Speaker 2: Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue. They miss

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Speaker 2: a deep threat. Now, well, Christian McCaffrey is still not

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Speaker 2: at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay the

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Speaker 2: best kind of team to bet. They won and played poorly.

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Speaker 2: You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home minus one

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Speaker 2: and a half. Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys

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Speaker 2: are all over the Niners here. The number was a

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Speaker 2: two and a half.

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Speaker 3: They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news

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Speaker 3: because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder

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Speaker 3: and was going to be day to day. He practiced

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Speaker 3: yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa.

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Speaker 3: Here was about brock Purty and the wise guys. Look

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Speaker 3: at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger

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Speaker 3: difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than

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Speaker 3: the Packers, who are at the top of the luck

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Speaker 3: rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games.

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Speaker 3: They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot of

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Speaker 3: blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play last week.

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Speaker 3: The Niners have had terrible life, terrible turnovers at the

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Speaker 3: wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time in multiple games. Right,

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Speaker 3: So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically

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Speaker 3: opposite in terms of how things have played out for them,

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Speaker 3: and you ask a lot of wise guys and they'll

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Speaker 3: say they have this game even on the road at

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Speaker 3: Green Bay Power Raider to pick. So you're getting a

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Speaker 3: point and a half of value right now on the Niners.

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Speaker 3: So that's why the wise guys like them.

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Speaker 2: Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage.

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Speaker 2: I like Philly minus two and a half, it'll be

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Speaker 2: a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense

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Speaker 2: is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of

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Speaker 2: pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.

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Speaker 2: I think rosters it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a

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Speaker 2: semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I don't

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Speaker 2: have to love Nick Siriani. They are hummon. Saquon Barkley

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Speaker 2: is playing the best football he's ever played in his life.

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Speaker 2: They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind

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Speaker 2: of surprised at the line. I thought it would be

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Speaker 2: bigger Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's

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Speaker 3: no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today,

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Speaker 3: that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in

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Speaker 3: on the Rams when it's at three, They've come in

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Speaker 3: on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,

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Speaker 3: and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams

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Speaker 3: the past two weeks. I felt like they were in

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Speaker 3: good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots

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Speaker 3: against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not

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Speaker 3: playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford but or

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Speaker 3: not very well, and the key to this team, and

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Speaker 3: you and I have talked about this. Sean McVay, for

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Speaker 3: all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes

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Speaker 3: to run the ball and that's the strength of this team.

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Speaker 3: I don't see the Rams being able to run the

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Speaker 3: ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by

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Speaker 3: the way, Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five,

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Speaker 3: the Eagles have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which

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Speaker 3: is basically a fancy way of saying how many points

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Speaker 3: they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play,

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Speaker 3: to first, like this defense has finally figured out what

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Speaker 3: he was trying to teach them and they're locked in

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Speaker 3: In the back of the secondary. Cooper Degene is one

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Speaker 3: of the top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus.

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Speaker 3: That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,

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Speaker 3: Cupp and pukuin Nukua.

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Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a good spot for them.

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Speaker 2: Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, go back on

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Speaker 2: the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,

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Speaker 2: now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.

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Speaker 2: Special teams offense. They're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense.

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Speaker 2: They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have

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Speaker 2: like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it

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Speaker 2: will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again.

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00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,679
Speaker 2: Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I

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Speaker 2: like the Chargers plus two and a half. Sharper Square.

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Speaker 3: Two and a half is not where the wise guys

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Speaker 3: like it. They loved it at three. I think if

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Speaker 3: you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of

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Speaker 3: tempting fate, right, you would expect this to be a

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Speaker 3: field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked

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Speaker 3: about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the

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Speaker 3: Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but

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Speaker 3: who have they really played. We saw a little bit

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Speaker 3: of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals

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Speaker 3: did such a good job coming back and probably should

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Speaker 3: have won that game if not for some really some

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Speaker 3: bad miss kicks and a couple of bad flags, and

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Speaker 3: the Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the

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Speaker 3: Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done

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Speaker 3: all year, which has beat them in the second half

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Speaker 3: through the air? The talent I think where everyone is

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Speaker 3: seeing what's going on with lab McConkie and are excited

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Speaker 3: about him is a connection with Justin Herbert. But the

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Speaker 3: Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year,

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Speaker 3: so you're gonna have to expect them to do something

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Speaker 3: they haven't done this year in the second half, which

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Speaker 3: is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to

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Speaker 3: do it and basically win the game because you're betting

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Speaker 3: less than the field goal.

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Speaker 1: So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.

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Speaker 2: I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as

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Speaker 2: Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think. I think Drake May

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00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,160
Speaker 2: is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where

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Speaker 2: you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow

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00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 2: more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game.

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Speaker 2: But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New

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Speaker 2: England playing hard. People playing for stuff here, young team,

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Speaker 2: young coach, young quarterback. They're not playing like they want

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Speaker 2: the number one pick, nor do they need it because

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Speaker 2: they have their quarterback. They're not They're not soft tanking

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Speaker 2: for Shador Sanders. You know they have to upgrade positions

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Speaker 2: defensive end and wide receiver, and it's a defensive end

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Speaker 2: wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard,

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Speaker 2: keep it close, Sharper square.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven

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Speaker 3: and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it.

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00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 3: And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks.

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Speaker 3: They were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great,

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00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 3: they got to Matthew Stafford, but the Rams gave that

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00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 3: game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns, they

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00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,920
Speaker 3: were missing snaps, they were thrown tipped interceptions.

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00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:19,680
Speaker 1: They did not play well.

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Speaker 3: And if you look at the game against the Raiders

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Speaker 3: last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points

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00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 3: with three and a half minutes left, there was a

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00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 3: miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the

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00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 3: Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them

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00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 3: instead of getting the Raiders the ball back, and that

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00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 3: was sort of the end of the game, and they

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00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 3: ended up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: But they were up by five points.

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00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:46,959
Speaker 3: The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if

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00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 3: they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So

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Speaker 3: I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I

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00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 3: have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer.

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Speaker 3: And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team

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00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:06,520
Speaker 3: is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It

354
00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to really know how to run the math.

355
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 3: Yet when you're going for two, should you go for one,

356
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 3: when do you want to go forward?

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00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 1: And fourth down?

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00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 3: He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of

359
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 3: pivot spots for the game, and that's where the biggest

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00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,400
Speaker 3: challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover.

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00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 1: But the wise guys are with you. They like the

362
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 1: seven and a half.

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00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,880
Speaker 2: I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions.

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00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 2: Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving, and they're you know,

365
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 2: they're playing perfect football. The Colts. I thought Anthony Richardson

366
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: looked as good as he has ever looked. I think

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00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,679
Speaker 2: they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of

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00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,360
Speaker 2: that is the Jets aren't very good, but I've been

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00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 2: saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel.

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00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 2: I really do like both of their lines, especially their

371
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 2: O line. They've got playmakers on the outside. I could

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00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 2: see the Lions going to head to Thanksgiving. They're blowing

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00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 2: people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven

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00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:05,120
Speaker 2: and a half at home.

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00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 1: Sharper Square couldn't be sharper sharpest player of the week.

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00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 3: Like the Colts are one of those teams where a

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00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 3: lot of wise guys when they look at this, certainly

378
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 3: how I think about it when I'm deciding if I

379
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 3: want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do

380
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 3: I believe this is sort of the right side from

381
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 3: a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against

382
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 3: going to have an overinflated number because they're public because

383
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 3: of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,

384
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 3: nobody is winning at a better clip than the Lions.

385
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 3: They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.

386
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 3: That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number one.

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00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 1: Great. I like the Colts here. Number two.

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00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 3: Do I believe there's a part of the game where

389
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 3: they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line,

390
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 3: best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has

391
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 3: been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I

392
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 3: think he played great last week. I think with his

393
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 3: ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get

394
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 3: pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will

395
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:09,920
Speaker 3: show you they are not a team that's getting a

396
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:10,479
Speaker 3: lot of pressure.

397
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 1: So that's number two. I'd like that number three.

398
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 3: There are a ton of trends that back this up,

399
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 3: and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling, but in this case,

400
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 3: like you got teams who are road favorites the game

401
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 3: after being a double digit favorite in any location. They've

402
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 3: had significant against the spread struggles the past decade, forty

403
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 3: three percent against the spread. Teams that are averaging thirty

404
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 3: three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage those

405
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 3: teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,

406
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: and if they are coming off a double digit win,

407
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 3: twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of

408
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 3: matchup reasons. There's a lot of inflation reasons, then there's

409
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 3: trend reasons.

410
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 1: So checks out all the boxes.

411
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 2: Okay, a game I want you to talk. Be into

412
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a

413
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 2: divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young

414
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 2: teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's

415
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 2: a really interesting team right now, so we know their

416
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 2: defense has been exceptional. Bon Nicks is making leaps like big,

417
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 2: no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton texts me this week

418
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 2: and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm is

419
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 2: way better than anybody understands. Greg co cell echoed that

420
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 2: this week he's like he's making NFL elite throws down

421
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 2: the middle. Of the field, hard deep throws. Arm is

422
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 2: not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the

423
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: Broncos are the side for me. Sharper square.

424
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to

425
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 3: this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed

426
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 3: with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened

427
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 3: by that Chiefs loss. And we saw this week right

428
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 3: like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on

429
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,239
Speaker 3: the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that

430
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 3: game and that and it matched right like it was

431
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: a Falcons team that was coming in and they were

432
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 3: supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew

433
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,360
Speaker 3: them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same

434
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 3: way this week about about the Raiders. I think the

435
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 3: number's gotten too high. It's at six, and that's because

436
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: the Wise guys have been betting it up. There's no

437
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 3: matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like their terrible team,

438
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 3: they seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner

439
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 3: Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four lost fumbles

440
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 3: this year, which is I think second in the NFL.

441
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: He's got I think nine interceptions, which is third in

442
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 3: the NFL thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the script for

443
00:23:54,400 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 3: this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve points digit something,

444
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 3: has a chance to put his team and get him

445
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 3: through the back door, and he does something that costs

446
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: his team the game. And you know, he loses the ball,

447
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: he fumbles whatever. So you're probably on the right side,

448
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 3: but I think you've lost the value in the number.

449
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,719
Speaker 2: Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I

450
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 2: like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,

451
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know,

452
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 2: Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though

453
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,

454
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him.

455
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: But give me something else.

456
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 3: Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say,

457
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 3: Like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what

458
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 3: they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks

459
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 3: that he played. They like the idea that this is

460
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 3: also a really good run blocking unit. And while the

461
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 3: Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still

462
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 3: an opportunity here for the Chiefs, and if they aren't

463
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 3: running a very well, they have liked what they've seen.

464
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 3: The wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce

465
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 3: Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially

466
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 3: against the chief secondary that.

467
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: Isn't very good.

468
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 3: You got to go on the road win is a

469
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 3: double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically

470
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 3: now this year, double digit favorites are rushing like it's been.

471
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 2: That's my take. At the top of this podcast was

472
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 2: the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference

473
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 2: between Denver and Orlando is significant.

474
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 3: Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats

475
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 3: here then if you're going to be talking about this,

476
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 3: because it helps illuminate it a little bit.

477
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: So double digit favorites are five.

478
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 3: To oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated,

479
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the

480
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 3: year and twenty seasons. Only the second time in the

481
00:25:55,760 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 3: past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they

482
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 3: are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to

483
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 3: go back to nineteen fifty that is the last time

484
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 3: double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks.

485
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The

486
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 3: point spread was less than a decade old in nineteen fifty.

487
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: It was invented in like nineteen forty one by a

488
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 3: commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time there was

489
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 3: this kind of double digit cover streak was nineteen fifty

490
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 3: and the spread was an infant. It barely existed. But

491
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 3: that's how unprecedented this is.

492
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 2: People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.

493
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 3: I mean, that was just exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad,

494
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:53,719
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, So they're going to be on this. So

495
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 3: but the point is the wise guys are going to

496
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 3: be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend.

497
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: Same thing with the Titans, by the way, they don't

498
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: love it, but they're going to bet against how bad

499
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to

500
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating

501
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 3: the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We

502
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 3: see j Stroud this year. They do like the Titans

503
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: defense talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves

504
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 3: in the foot every week. So if they can get

505
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 3: one of these breaks. That's the difference in a game

506
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 3: where the number is more than a touchdown.

507
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.

508
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: Good to see you too, brother.

509
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,760
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