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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Brownowitz Jay Lee, we bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 1: It is a jobs report that is always economic in

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Speaker 1: about our lives, and because of that, always political as well.

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Speaker 1: And this has become a wonderful tradition at Bloomberg to

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Speaker 1: give pause to look at the data and then to

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Speaker 1: speak to the Secretary of Labor of the United States

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Speaker 1: former Mayor of Boston John Farrell, with Murty Walsh, the

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Speaker 1: US Labor Secretary Marty while she joined us from Washington.

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Speaker 1: Secredy Welsh. Fantastic to catch out with you, Sarah. Happy

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Speaker 1: New Year to you. Let's get straight into the Job's Report.

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Speaker 1: I remember a few months back asking you how can

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Speaker 1: we get in ancient dawn without unemployment climate? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think it's Jelf's report is just for you, sir. Can

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Speaker 1: you tell me what's in this that you think makes

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Speaker 1: it sustainable? Well, I hope we continue the steady growth

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing, uh, seeing the unemployment number come down,

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Speaker 1: I think we have room to grow in communities of color,

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Speaker 1: particularly the black community. Let's, you know, community get those

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Speaker 1: numbers down a little bit. We've seen, you know, wages

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Speaker 1: are still year over year up four point one percent.

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Speaker 1: We went down about one tenth of a percent. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think, well, we're in a very interesting

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Speaker 1: economic time and I don't think that a recovery that

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Speaker 1: that we used to coming out of recession and going

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Speaker 1: intercession is compatible to what we're experiencing today. So I

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Speaker 1: hope we can continue to see these job numbers moving forward.

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Speaker 1: We saw good greens and construction, hospitality, leisure, education, and

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Speaker 1: health those areas in the last couple of months. We

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Speaker 1: haven't seen the growth we've seen today, so we just

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Speaker 1: want to see it across the board. I think companies

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Speaker 1: realize it too, that it's important for us to continue

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Speaker 1: move our economy forward. They're bringing people on and we

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Speaker 1: need to keep bringing inflationary pressures down. It's not just

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Speaker 1: the numbers today, it's the jumps numbers we've seen a week.

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Speaker 1: The job openings numbers still elevated, the quicksrate elevated, indicating

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Speaker 1: some confidence. I'm looking at this at the moment. Secondy

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Speaker 1: Wolst and I listened to the tech companies who are

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Speaker 1: making these massive layoffs. How do you distinguish between what's

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Speaker 1: happening there and what you see in the official data. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think the tech companies are actually looking the way

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Speaker 1: their business models are. They're looking at how inflict the

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Speaker 1: inflation rate impacts their business. And a lot of these

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Speaker 1: folks that are being laid off in the tech industry

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Speaker 1: are finding jobs in areas that quite honestly, people looking

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Speaker 1: for tech experts all across the country. But these tech

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Speaker 1: companies had garbled up so much talent. Certainly I would

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Speaker 1: like to see a lot short tracking in the near

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Speaker 1: future these tech companies rehiring folks back. We don't want

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Speaker 1: to see any industry in the United States of America

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Speaker 1: going through a process of laying large amounts of people off.

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Speaker 1: We want to see them are being successful. A lot

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Speaker 1: of people arguing that we have still a tight labor market,

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Speaker 1: and with that secondary worlsh You and I have been

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Speaker 1: talking about the return of labor power, So let's touch

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Speaker 1: on that a little bit. Can you give us an

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Speaker 1: update on the West Coast sports situation. We've gone back

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Speaker 1: and forth on this for I think about nine months now.

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Speaker 1: Secondary WOLVESH what's coming on and how close are we

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Speaker 1: to deal? Yeah, I went out there. I was out

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Speaker 1: there a lot this week. Actually, Monday, I went out

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Speaker 1: to the West Coast Ports. I had a meeting. I

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Speaker 1: walked the port in in l A and uh in

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Speaker 1: Long Beach, and we had good conversations. I asked both sides,

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Speaker 1: the union and the company. Uh, they're back at the table.

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Speaker 1: They're moving forward. UH, and they're having conversations and dialogues

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Speaker 1: and UM. You know the one thing I did ask them,

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Speaker 1: they didn't give me a date. I'd like to see.

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Speaker 1: You know, the quicker week can get this resolved, the

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Speaker 1: better because it will bring a little peace of mind

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Speaker 1: to people, particularly in industries of shipping. And I think that,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think both sides are committed to getting

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Speaker 1: it done. I'm not concerned. This is a very different

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Speaker 1: situation than the rails. The rails were a situation where

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Speaker 1: both sides, in the beginning of the conversation weren't having conversations.

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Speaker 1: In this particular case, the shipping companies and the unions

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Speaker 1: have been talking all consistently all along. What would make

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Speaker 1: you concerned? Um, if if we don't. It made me

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Speaker 1: concerned if they have a breakdown and conversation. Uh, this

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Speaker 1: contract like the like, like the rail contracts, the massive contract.

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Speaker 1: There's lots of different pieces to it. But but if

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Speaker 1: if one side indicate to me that they felt they

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Speaker 1: would be in there was an obstacle in the way.

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Speaker 1: And that's not the case, at least not as yet.

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Speaker 1: I was you know, when we started talking about this

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Speaker 1: in the very beginning, I was hoping that we'd have

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Speaker 1: a contract by labor Day, but clearly I was very wrong. Well,

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Speaker 1: we've gotta wait, and hopefully don't have to wait too long.

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Speaker 1: Another story that involved the union movement secredy WLS. So

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Speaker 1: you're also involved in Conico Phillips. You're aware of this

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Speaker 1: situation with its Alaska operations, this eight billion dollar all

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Speaker 1: project in the Arctic. On the one hand, you've got

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Speaker 1: huge union support for the project. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: the environmentalist hates it. And what more involvement from the administration.

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Speaker 1: Where are you won this? Secretary Wals Do you have

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Speaker 1: a side in this one? No? I haven't in neittially

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Speaker 1: had to sign this one, but I was asked earlier,

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Speaker 1: and you know that the labor unions are certainly putting

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Speaker 1: lots of pressure in calling me on this all the

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Speaker 1: side because they're concerned about it. So we're kind of

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Speaker 1: seeing as we move forward here, what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Is there a compromise and what does that compromise look like.

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Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not dead involved in the conversation, so

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Speaker 1: I can't I can't answer that question if there's a compromise.

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Speaker 1: Final question to you, then, on the situation in Washington

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Speaker 1: struggle to vote a House speaker. Secondly, Welsh is someone

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Speaker 1: who works in the administration. I think it's important. I

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Speaker 1: saw some criticism of the situation in the United States

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Speaker 1: from Chinese state media, and I asked the question at

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Speaker 1: the time when I saw that criticism, what would we

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Speaker 1: prefer some of the features of democracy where you get

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Speaker 1: some chaos or what takes place in dictatorships. And I

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Speaker 1: want to understand from you, do you see the situation

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Speaker 1: in the House right now? Secondly, well, she's a feature

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Speaker 1: of democracy or something worse, not yet, but but I

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Speaker 1: do hope that the Congress can get a speaker of

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Speaker 1: the House, even something that that I might not agree

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Speaker 1: with completely, but we need to get we need to

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Speaker 1: get our government up and running fully. Uh, certainly. And

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Speaker 1: I think that you know that there the Republicans are

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Speaker 1: going through some challenges right now and they're trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out what's going to happen there and hopefully it

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Speaker 1: will be worked out shortly. Secondly, Welsh, we appreciate your time,

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Speaker 1: so happy New Year. We'll catch up soon, no doubt.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. Right now, let's go to Randall Crossner. He

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Speaker 1: is a former FED governor. I want to take this

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Speaker 1: big green broaders Mike Gains Lisa says, massages the data.

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Speaker 1: This with an equity lift in the market, bonds and determinant.

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Speaker 1: Right now we have curb a little bit of curbing version.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to oversell that. Randa Krasner to me,

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Speaker 1: this is an Elizabeth Warren jobs report. We are employing

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Speaker 1: America's Americans. These are good numbers. We need to revisit this.

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Speaker 1: Why does the FED want unemployment? Why do they want

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Speaker 1: us to have less jobs? I think that's a huge

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Speaker 1: confusion for our listeners and viewers. I think that's right.

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Speaker 1: It's an important point to make because it's not that

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Speaker 1: the FED wants fewer jobs. What they want is lower

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Speaker 1: wage growth more because they're worried about persistent inflation. Ument

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Speaker 1: of all of the costs of UH of of our

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Speaker 1: production in the US is related to jobs and wages,

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Speaker 1: and so if that's going up really fast, that can

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Speaker 1: make it very difficult for inflation to come down on.

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Speaker 1: This is the immaculate disinflation report. UM that you're starting

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Speaker 1: to get lowered wage growth, but um lower unemployment rate,

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Speaker 1: continued high growth in jobs. As I had said before,

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Speaker 1: this has never happened before where we've been able to

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Speaker 1: bring the growth of wages down and the inflation rate

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Speaker 1: down without having the unemployment rate go up. This is

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Speaker 1: one of those new theories we're talking about before that

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Speaker 1: the FED is putting forward. It would love to see

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Speaker 1: this happen, that the the wage rate growth comes down

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Speaker 1: without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This is

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Speaker 1: just one month's number, So let's not say that we've

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Speaker 1: got that victory here, but it's consistent with this very

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Speaker 1: optimistic view that that people have that potential, or that

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Speaker 1: some people have that maybe we could get through this

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Speaker 1: without a significant procession. Ready, let's say that this is

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Speaker 1: the science of the immaculate disinflation that should talk about.

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Speaker 1: And let's say we get another read like this next

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Speaker 1: month and the month after. How many does it take

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Speaker 1: for the FED to adjust given the balance of risks

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Speaker 1: that this is not actually an accurate picture and that

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Speaker 1: inflation is still strong and that the labor market is

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Speaker 1: too strong for the Fed's wishes. So they're certainly going

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Speaker 1: to continue to buy buy insurance. They're not gonna say, oh,

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Speaker 1: h the the inflation wage inflation is coming down, just

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Speaker 1: like overall inflations coming down, We're done. They're not going

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Speaker 1: to say that at all. They're certainly going to continue

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Speaker 1: to to raise rates at the end of this month,

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Speaker 1: likely continue to do that in uh in in March,

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Speaker 1: but it may make it more likely that they go

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Speaker 1: twenty five basis points rather than fifty basis points at

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Speaker 1: these meetings. I think that's really where it's going to be.

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Speaker 1: But there's gonna be buying some inflation because they know

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Speaker 1: that this is sort of a new and untested hypothesis. Um,

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Speaker 1: maybe it'll work, but they're not going to take the

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Speaker 1: risk that AH declare victory and then the wage rates

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Speaker 1: start to go up. Inflation rates start to go up,

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Speaker 1: and then they've really got to move in uh interest

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Speaker 1: rates up because they worry about using credibility. And Randy,

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Speaker 1: thank you, just wonderful converis from you as always lucky

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Speaker 1: to catch up with Randy Cruiser that the University of

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Speaker 1: Chicago and of course fullmerly the Federal saf Right now,

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Speaker 1: Jeff Rosenberg joins his portfolio manager of the Conundrum Fund

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Speaker 1: at black Rocker Thrill you could join us this morning, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you the question I was gonna

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Speaker 1: ask Professor Krassner, but instead I'll go to Professor Jeff Rosenberg,

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Speaker 1: and that is, can you substitute a duration or a

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Speaker 1: stasis in FED policy for going up to a higher rate?

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Speaker 1: Can you actually get away with that shell game? Uh?

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Speaker 1: You know, it depends on what we're looking at today

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Speaker 1: in in the data and what it implies about inflation

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Speaker 1: today is about you know, wage inflation, and you know,

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Speaker 1: can the Fed get away with a pause is really

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Speaker 1: about whether they're making good on the inflation uh trajectory

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Speaker 1: as the market is expecting it to decline. So they'll

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Speaker 1: pause if inflation is declining, but they won't be able

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Speaker 1: to if they're not achieving their inflation objectives. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: I just want to comment second on the report is

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Speaker 1: mixed between the unemployment rate and the and the and

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Speaker 1: the wages. As we have seen for a number of reports,

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Speaker 1: the payroll report has really become kind of the stepchild

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Speaker 1: of of economic reports relative to next week's cp I.

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Speaker 1: So what's really important here is what can we look

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Speaker 1: through into this report as to what it says about inflation.

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Speaker 1: And obviously the headline on that is average hourly earnings

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Speaker 1: and that's a little bit positive. But what I want

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Speaker 1: to highlight out of this report is something we haven't

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Speaker 1: talked about yet. You know, the big expectations in inflation

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Speaker 1: is that you have this persistent expectation that goods deflation

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Speaker 1: is going to support the consensus expectation for declining inflation.

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Speaker 1: One thing out of today's payroll report I think that's

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Speaker 1: interesting to highlight is that if you look at the

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Speaker 1: goods components whosale, trade, retail transportation, those are up total

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Speaker 1: twenty six k in terms of UH. In terms of

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Speaker 1: UH the monthly payroll gains. That's a significant change relative

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Speaker 1: to the pace of about a three month average of

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Speaker 1: negative four six month average of around six, and if

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Speaker 1: you look through and you squint a little bit, it

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Speaker 1: is worth noting that this is a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a different story that we've had an expectation that the

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Speaker 1: good side is deflating. If you look into today's payroll report,

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Speaker 1: it tells you a little bit of a different story

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Speaker 1: that that maybe you're seeing some signs of life in

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Speaker 1: the goods. If we see that into next week's pay

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Speaker 1: CPI report, that's gonna be a big change relative to

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Speaker 1: market expectations. I think that's one of the interesting takeaways

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Speaker 1: from today's payroll report. People don't do nuance well, JEF,

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Speaker 1: especially after living under the Fed's thumb for so long

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Speaker 1: in terms of don't fight the Fed. So there is

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Speaker 1: a question of as you pass through the nuances of

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Speaker 1: this data, what do you do? How does it shift

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Speaker 1: what you actually do in the markets which you buy?

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Speaker 1: What your thesis is, Yeah, well, this is the thesis

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Speaker 1: for the market consensus. Thesis is that goods deflation is

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Speaker 1: supporting the p inflation expectations. That supports the bed pause

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Speaker 1: and really feeds into the market the bond market expectation

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Speaker 1: that the FED can can pivot, so you have the

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Speaker 1: tension is really on the services inflation today. On the headline,

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Speaker 1: you get a little bit of support for that because

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Speaker 1: you see average eily earnings coming down. But this is

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Speaker 1: still a strong labor report. It's still a strong labor market,

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Speaker 1: and we are not yet seeing a significant tightening in

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Speaker 1: labor markets from the significant tightening and interest rates. That

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Speaker 1: maybe lags, but it may also point to a lack

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Speaker 1: of interest rate sensitivity in the broader economy outside obvious

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Speaker 1: candidates like real estate. I'm looking right now at the

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Speaker 1: market reaction as market participants passed through this, you could

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Speaker 1: see yields significantly lower on the front end. This to

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Speaker 1: me is interesting. Down to four point four percent, it's

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Speaker 1: something to write home about considering some of the follow

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Speaker 1: toty we've seen. But would you lean against this, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: would you actually say this labor market report is nothing

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Speaker 1: particularly shocking in order to go against what people think

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Speaker 1: in terms of a hawkish FED and that they're going

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Speaker 1: to hold rates at five percent for much longer than

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Speaker 1: currently priced into markets. I think you can't read too

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Speaker 1: much into today's report. As as I said, it's it's mixed.

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Speaker 1: It's got a little bit of everything, or a little

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Speaker 1: bit of something for every point of view. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: then I think if if you stare really closely at

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Speaker 1: some of the data, there is a suggestion here that

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Speaker 1: this consensus view on the good side, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: undermined a little bit. I wouldn't read too much into that,

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Speaker 1: And I think the kind of mixed messages reflective in

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Speaker 1: a relatively muted bond market reaction to the report so far,

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Speaker 1: if you're joining us on radio and television, Jeffrey Rosenberg,

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Speaker 1: where this black rock? We continue here with a nice

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Speaker 1: lift of the market's features up down, features up two

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Speaker 1: forty seven. The vix comes in nicely, so it is

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Speaker 1: a better equity market off the report. A bit of

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Speaker 1: disinversion in the two stents spread. We are on negative

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Speaker 1: seventies six basis points, a less inversion here, uh seen

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Speaker 1: by the report. Michael McKee calls it a conundrum, jeff F. Rosenberg,

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Speaker 1: How do you allocate here? The hallmark of what we've

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Speaker 1: seen the last two days in surveillance and conversation is

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Speaker 1: everyone extending out their view. It doesn't matter which shops

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Speaker 1: sell side by side, everybody's is reaching out. How do

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Speaker 1: you allocate a portfolio given all this uncertainty? Right now,

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Speaker 1: where the safety maybe just to take a stasis bet,

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Speaker 1: not a dynamic bet out into two thousand three. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a there's a lot of sort of

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Speaker 1: false changing in positions that associated with you know, year

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Speaker 1: ahead outlooks in the turn of the calendar. We haven't

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Speaker 1: really changed much in terms of the arrative from where

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Speaker 1: we left off at the end of last year. This

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Speaker 1: is a market that is is split between kind of

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Speaker 1: soft landing and hard landing scenarios. But where the consensus

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Speaker 1: expectation around declining inflation, you know, leads the ability for

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Speaker 1: the FED to pivot. And what's interesting and what we saw,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the minutes earlier this week, is the

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Speaker 1: tension that that creates with this financial conditions component of

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Speaker 1: monetary policy transmission. That is, you know, the FED wanting

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Speaker 1: to push back on markets getting too far ahead of

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Speaker 1: of a FED pivot. And I think that means for

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Speaker 1: portfolio positioning, you've got to take what the market gives you,

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Speaker 1: and I think you've got to be pretty cautious going

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Speaker 1: into that uncertainty. What the markets giving you right now

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Speaker 1: in the fixed inco market is an inverted yield curve.

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Speaker 1: Your best yields are found with the least amount of risk,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's what you've got to take here

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Speaker 1: until some of the clarity around hard soft landing, consensus

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Speaker 1: views around inflation being realized start to get validated in

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Speaker 1: the data. F Rosenberg, thank you so much with black rockets.

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Speaker 1: So I'm let's talk about the explosion of hiring. The

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Speaker 1: numbers out of Amazon, it just they're unimagined, just where

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Speaker 1: airplanes are trucks. It's unamagine the tomp to add a

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Speaker 1: million people to the workforce, and my single company and

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Speaker 1: in what three is it's just phenomenal. We're gonna do this.

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Speaker 1: I just used my fancy new iPhone to take an

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Speaker 1: expanded shot here of Lisa Brand. What's Jonathan fair on?

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Speaker 1: Our guest Dan ives he has senior equity research channelists

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Speaker 1: Wedbush Securities. And we're supposed to talk Apple, except Tesla's

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Speaker 1: not cooperating, So we will go over to Tesla printing

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Speaker 1: on one or three point zero zero? Do you have

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Speaker 1: in your head a price of Tesla where ms Mr

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Speaker 1: Musk's world unravels. Look, I don't think we're there yet,

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Speaker 1: I mean, but I will say that, look about sixties

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Speaker 1: seventy hours of the sell off has been must Twitter driven.

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Speaker 1: Now now, clearly this part is the demand story, the

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Speaker 1: price cuts that we're seeing in China. Know, but I

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Speaker 1: believe a look at a hundred hours, we're getting to

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Speaker 1: a point that I believe this is starting to get

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Speaker 1: to just a massive risk ward to own despite going

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Speaker 1: into a Q four where clearly that they're gonna lower

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Speaker 1: guide into and I think that's really the fear. Can

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Speaker 1: you help me understand the demand backdrop, particularly in China,

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Speaker 1: specifically in China, do you think I was off the

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Speaker 1: back of the lockdowns just a lack of spending more

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Speaker 1: broadly in that economy, or off the back of competition.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to work out what lasts here and what fights. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think about thirty to view is COVID driven in

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Speaker 1: terms of the lockdowns and really what we've seen in country.

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Speaker 1: But but no doubt. I mean it's an arms race

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Speaker 1: that's happening in China from from Neo X being to

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Speaker 1: you know called twenty and thirty other o e M

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Speaker 1: s that are really going after Tesla. But when I

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Speaker 1: look at the e V market in China, we're still

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Speaker 1: in the second third inning I just view this as

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Speaker 1: the market going from hyper growth two more moderated growth

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Speaker 1: incession when they've reopened. I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: would make the argument right now that this is a

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Speaker 1: more actionalistic Chinese consumer when they reopen it, they've got

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Speaker 1: the spare cash to spend and buy a vehicle and

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Speaker 1: they buying Tesla's or they go in local. Well, that's

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Speaker 1: been the being. Ultimately, the brand of Tessla continues to

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Speaker 1: really be unmatched, and I think that's why if you

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Speaker 1: look at the Chinese consumer, especially on the higher end,

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Speaker 1: if they're going for E v s, I'd say two

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Speaker 1: of every three is going for a Tesla. And now

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Speaker 1: the problem is competition price. Competition was I due to

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Speaker 1: margins and that's why the clock struck midnight for TESTSA

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Speaker 1: in terms of hyper growth, and that's what you're seeing

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Speaker 1: reflecting the stock. Although the as we said, seventy of

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Speaker 1: the sell off we believe has been musk Twitter driven

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Speaker 1: all right, well, and not to get into the whole

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Speaker 1: drama there, but there is this question, if you strip

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Speaker 1: out that isn't related to that, how much Tesla is

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Speaker 1: representative of a bigger story within the text sphere in

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Speaker 1: particular that you're seeing with a lack of demand, a

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Speaker 1: saturation after so much buying of certain types of electronics

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Speaker 1: during the pandemic. How much have we already seen a

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Speaker 1: right sizing some of the tech companies if they do

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Speaker 1: layoffs versus they're more to be going more to more

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Speaker 1: room to actually cut. First of all tech companies, if

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Speaker 1: you looked the last four or five years, and they

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Speaker 1: were spending money like rock stars, so at that pace,

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Speaker 1: if you look at it, that was not sustainable clearly,

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Speaker 1: and then now going into a recessionary environment and will

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Speaker 1: call a hangover post COVID from a growth perspective, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see the cuts. But I look, I view the

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Speaker 1: cuts similar to as I view him in O. Nine

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Speaker 1: and No. One oh two. It's ultimately the start of

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Speaker 1: a right sizing that weeds the next up cycle. Is

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Speaker 1: this Silicon Valley adulthood upon them given crisis and they

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Speaker 1: saved us all with the cardboard boxes when we couldn't

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Speaker 1: go out, just as one example. But is it now

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Speaker 1: finally Silicon Valley, with cost cuts, with shocks financially finds

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Speaker 1: a new adulthood, a new sobriety to act like other

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Speaker 1: American companies. I think they're transitioning toward that, towards that

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Speaker 1: adulthood because I think they have learned from their mistakes,

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Speaker 1: and I think all Microsoft never had this problem. Well

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Speaker 1: look if you look at Redmon and how Microsoft did ultimately,

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Speaker 1: they've been tacticians as long as i'd say with Apple

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Speaker 1: in terms of everything that cooks done. But I think

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Speaker 1: when you look at the rest attack, I mean it

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Speaker 1: was really an arms race to really outspend because of

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Speaker 1: the talent level and what demand looked like. And now

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Speaker 1: it's really happening. I think we go into this Q

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Speaker 1: four earnings numbers get cut. I believe Texas under owned

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Speaker 1: today's two thousand nine. The New York City cab drivers

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Speaker 1: barrash on Tech, and then I think we sit here

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Speaker 1: in February March, April to spend. Also what happens on macro.

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Speaker 1: I think tech stocks ripped higher from here despite sentiment,

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Speaker 1: which you know, many yelling fire in a crowd theater,

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Speaker 1: but you think we've got a guy through the kitchen

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Speaker 1: sinking moment the kitchen we has to happen the last

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Speaker 1: two weeks of January across the board, and that in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, marks what I view as a core bottle

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Speaker 1: to the real question for a lot of people then

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Speaker 1: is how much more down side is they're off the

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Speaker 1: back of that kitchen sinking moment or do you think

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Speaker 1: that kitchen sink leads to a roundy Because you get

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Speaker 1: this release whisper numbers usually or i'd say eight tim

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Speaker 1: percent above street. Today they're probably eight to ten percent

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Speaker 1: below the street. And I think that's the difference from

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Speaker 1: institutional perspective. You've alreadys these byside numbers come down across

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Speaker 1: the board, a lot of bad news baked in here

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Speaker 1: and look fundamentally, especially on enterprise software cybersecurity across the board.

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Speaker 1: I mean we're seeing nine deals still get done. And

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Speaker 1: also remember if you look at Apple, given everything we

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Speaker 1: saw with COVID in terms of China, all the supply

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Speaker 1: chain issues, you would be like, Okay, they're gonna pre

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Speaker 1: announce negive, not even a question. They already announced their date.

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Speaker 1: So again it just goes to a point demand. Despite

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Speaker 1: what I think you know in terms of the clock

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Speaker 1: striking midnight in the eyes of many, I think it's

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Speaker 1: holding up better than expected. Specifically in Cupertino. The story

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Speaker 1: of two thousand twenty two is a real bifurcation of

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Speaker 1: big tech. It was no longer big tech. It was

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Speaker 1: specific industries that they're catering to. With technology is a

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Speaker 1: preeminent business. Are there any big tech companies that you

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Speaker 1: don't think will revive, that you don't think will be

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Speaker 1: under priced, that you think kitchen sink it and then

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Speaker 1: have to kitchen sink it again later on this year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's really more on the social media. I mean,

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00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: like when you look as where a meta play is

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00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 1: that they have significant headwinds because of what's happening on

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00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 1: Apple iOS and just digital advertising, and obviously more money

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00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: spend to a metaverse. But it goes back that they

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00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: cut costs. Look at that stocks in Zuckerberg actually peeled

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00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 1: back spending. John, Let's look at this. This is the reality.

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00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: Take a photo, run it to forty eight mega petzels,

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00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: which is a new magnificent resolution, edited in another app,

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00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 1: Throw it out to tree and house sitting in the studio.

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00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 1: She nails it, gets it done, and we get it

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00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 1: up in twelve seconds. That's the Dana I's world. You

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00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: love this camera, don't you? I do? I do? I

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00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 1: love the chip. No, no, let me rephrase this. This

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00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 1: has helped me here. The chip is what matters. Nobody

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00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: in the financial media talks about the A this or

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00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: the A chip in whichever toy you're talking. It's the

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00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 1: biggest innovation to a matter of Apple in the last

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00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: six or seven years in terms of chips. They they're

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00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 1: basically being intel at their own game. I've fantastic to

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00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: see you just brilliant shares your stylus tkah looking great.

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00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 1: I mean loving the jacket. But it kind of for

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00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 1: New Year's great. This is all right, tom fordy yesterday

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00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: from Davidson and Dan Eves today. These peaks are encyclopedic

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00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: on this stuff. It's not a lot of blah blah.

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00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 1: But for somebody's take first, think about how long they've

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00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 1: been around. They've never had to live with five percent

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00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: interest rates. Yes, And I'd also make the argument in

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00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 1: the United States they've never really faced truly a cychnical test,

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00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 1: because the pandemic for some industries, of course, was a

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00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: cygnical test. For these tech firms, it was. Now they've

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00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: got an acceleration of demand for many of these firms

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00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 1: in their current form, this year could well be if

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00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 1: we do get that recession, the first cychnical test they faced.

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00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: That's a new sobriety I'm talking about. And the other

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00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 1: side of it is and you know, we'll talk to

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00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: Dan about this in the coming weeks. We're gonna go

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00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: to earnings. I believe February second for Apple seven. I

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00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: think January. It's February. We at the end of January,

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00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 1: the big we Amazon, We're gonna go to earnings and

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00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 1: they're gonna go, hey, we're selling all these stupid phones

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00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: through the mobile phone companies for next to no money.

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00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 1: John Parrell needs one of these, don't you think. I

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00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: think Pharren needs and iPhone. I think I'm rocking it.

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00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 1: I think I'm rocking a twelve. I don't want to

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00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: change this down. I'm not ready to do that just yet.

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00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: We'll see what am I waiting for? The fifteen six? Yes,

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00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: the sixteen Okay, keep going. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

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00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: ten AMI Eastern. I'm Bloomberg Radio and I'm Bloomberg Television.

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00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 1: Each day from six to nine am for insight from

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00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international Relations and

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00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom

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00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 1: keene In. This is Bloomberg. H