WEBVTT - Xerox CEO on Business Reinvention 

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business Week,

0:00:10.760 --> 0:00:14.040
<v Speaker 1>insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's

0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:18.720
<v Speaker 1>most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech

0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:22.880
<v Speaker 1>news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:25.760
<v Speaker 1>and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:29.360
<v Speaker 2>It is Bloomberg BusinessWeek. That's Carol, I'm Tim. Shares of

0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:32.240
<v Speaker 2>Xerox falling today as much as thirteen percent did close

0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.159
<v Speaker 2>out the day lower by about five point eight percent.

0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.920
<v Speaker 2>The company did report adjustin earnings per share for the

0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:41.239
<v Speaker 2>fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, though revenue

0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:46.120
<v Speaker 2>did beat analyst estimates. We've got with us Steve Bandrzak,

0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:48.440
<v Speaker 2>the CEO of Xerox Holdings Corp. He joins us here

0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.040
<v Speaker 2>in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio.

0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:52.839
<v Speaker 3>Steve, good to see you. How are you great to

0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:54.600
<v Speaker 3>have me? Thank you doing well? Hey?

0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:56.840
<v Speaker 2>So, you said in the earnings release that we continue

0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:00.000
<v Speaker 2>to see steady progress in our reinvention, reflecting the res

0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.080
<v Speaker 2>resilience of our team and initiatives taken to date.

0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:06.200
<v Speaker 3>Where are you right now in your reinvention? Yeah? So

0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:07.600
<v Speaker 3>reinvention is a three year journey.

0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:09.480
<v Speaker 4>The three year program that we set up and it's

0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.480
<v Speaker 4>all about getting Zerox back to revenue growth and getting

0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.280
<v Speaker 4>back to double digit operating profit. And so we're about

0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:17.959
<v Speaker 4>two thirds into that journey. But really the important part

0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:21.520
<v Speaker 4>is we're set the foundation of the overall reinvention strategy.

0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.559
<v Speaker 4>The first is getting our core stable and growing again,

0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.640
<v Speaker 4>and we put a bunch of different things around what

0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:28.360
<v Speaker 4>we do in our operating model, what we do with

0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.880
<v Speaker 4>our sales team, what we're doing with our channels, new

0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.880
<v Speaker 4>product introductions, and so forth. Second piece is we have

0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:36.280
<v Speaker 4>to get twenty percent of our revenue that is growing

0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:39.160
<v Speaker 4>faster than the decline in the print industry. So we've

0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.280
<v Speaker 4>acquired a company called it Savvy, which is a really

0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.160
<v Speaker 4>IT solution. So if you think about a services led

0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.960
<v Speaker 4>software enabled business, a tech powerhouse that drives productivity in

0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:49.600
<v Speaker 4>a workplace, that's where we're going.

0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.560
<v Speaker 2>And one of the things we're really so diversifying into consulting.

0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:56.480
<v Speaker 4>Diversifying into services and software. So if you think about

0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:59.880
<v Speaker 4>all the different tools that you have in the IT space,

0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:03.200
<v Speaker 4>we have and have the ability to bring it into

0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:06.760
<v Speaker 4>SMB medium and smaller business units, where.

0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.240
<v Speaker 2>You have the relationships with the businesses already because they

0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:10.440
<v Speaker 2>have your printer products.

0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:13.480
<v Speaker 4>Being two hundred thousand clients that we have in that space,

0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:15.720
<v Speaker 4>and we talk about relationships. It's not that we ship

0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.240
<v Speaker 4>them stuff. We actually people ten thousand service technicians on

0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.799
<v Speaker 4>the ground inside of the facilities where we have long

0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.840
<v Speaker 4>term relationships and we trust it. So we're now bringing

0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:28.720
<v Speaker 4>other services, things like network as a service, security is

0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:31.480
<v Speaker 4>a service. Many of these companies do not have the

0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.920
<v Speaker 4>IT capabilities of very large companies like Bloomberg, where they

0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:37.680
<v Speaker 4>have tremendous IT assets and they can take advantage of

0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:41.119
<v Speaker 4>all these technology trends. If you're a school, you're a university,

0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:44.160
<v Speaker 4>you're a medical center, you're a strip mall, you're a hospital,

0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:46.800
<v Speaker 4>you don't have those capabilities. So you can talk about

0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:48.880
<v Speaker 4>AI all you want, but if you don't have the

0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:52.280
<v Speaker 4>infrastructure and you don't have the ability to orchestrate all

0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:55.200
<v Speaker 4>that data and serve it up into AI, it's completely useless.

0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.040
<v Speaker 4>So we're excited about playing in that space.

0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:58.919
<v Speaker 5>So you're two thirds of the way into your plans,

0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.640
<v Speaker 5>and I think when it comes to your priorities, your

0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:05.080
<v Speaker 5>reinvention plans deep it is about that it's you know,

0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:08.720
<v Speaker 5>your acquisitions, How do you want investors to measure success

0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.240
<v Speaker 5>when they look at your company? Right now? Investors, if

0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:13.480
<v Speaker 5>you look at the reaction today, not so key on

0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.760
<v Speaker 5>what they heard. So how should investors measure your success

0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:17.360
<v Speaker 5>at this point?

0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:20.000
<v Speaker 4>A couple of things. First of all, when you think

0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.960
<v Speaker 4>about a journey of a reinvention, you've got to get

0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:25.680
<v Speaker 4>your core fundamentals right, and that's what we're doing in

0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:27.520
<v Speaker 4>the first part of it. So you're starting to see

0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:31.480
<v Speaker 4>things like twenty percent sales productivity. We're seeing that, we're

0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.760
<v Speaker 4>seeing double digit placement of units in the in the

0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:37.680
<v Speaker 4>Q four where you have that where you place a unit,

0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:40.120
<v Speaker 4>and then you see long term supplies as you go forward,

0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:44.360
<v Speaker 4>So signs of how do we get our core business stable. Second,

0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:47.520
<v Speaker 4>the acquisitions. You think about lexmod acquisition right right when

0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:50.040
<v Speaker 4>we go and make that acquisition, it is immediately a creative.

0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:50.920
<v Speaker 3>You with two.

0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:53.760
<v Speaker 4>Hundred million dollars percentages about a dollar EPs, it's a

0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.400
<v Speaker 4>creator will actually lower our debt. So the acquisition strategy

0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.600
<v Speaker 4>strengthens our core diversifies our business. The other thing is

0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.840
<v Speaker 4>we have digital services, right you talk a lot about

0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:06.720
<v Speaker 4>AI digital services, the ability to take data. You think

0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:10.040
<v Speaker 4>about AI without data is completely useless. Well, we play

0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:10.720
<v Speaker 4>in that space.

0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.160
<v Speaker 5>But how much data? I mean, if you listen, we

0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.000
<v Speaker 5>talk about this NonStop. In terms of the power of

0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:18.600
<v Speaker 5>AI is based on the data it can acquire. There

0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.040
<v Speaker 5>are so many data providers and to be fair, probably

0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.599
<v Speaker 5>bigger than you guys. So how do you compete in

0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:28.640
<v Speaker 5>terms of the quantity and clarity and quality of your data?

0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:31.440
<v Speaker 4>Not the data providers, it's the data that our clients own.

0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:32.919
<v Speaker 4>So if you think about hospitals, you.

0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:35.120
<v Speaker 5>Think about managing their data.

0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:37.520
<v Speaker 4>Helping them orchestrate it. It's really important.

0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:37.720
<v Speaker 6>Right.

0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.760
<v Speaker 4>You could have it on physical files where it's paper based, right,

0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:42.440
<v Speaker 4>it could be in share points, it could be in

0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.320
<v Speaker 4>all over. Think about things like video. Nobody thinks about

0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:48.440
<v Speaker 4>data in terms of video, things like censor data.

0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:48.720
<v Speaker 7>Right.

0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:51.800
<v Speaker 4>We help our clients orchestrate all that and then serve

0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:53.839
<v Speaker 4>it up on top of AI. So we're using the

0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.680
<v Speaker 4>data that our clients have, even data that they don't

0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.280
<v Speaker 4>realize that they need to drive differentiation use it AI.

0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:02.840
<v Speaker 4>So think about video data, right, and you put AI

0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:06.479
<v Speaker 4>on video data and you send somethings wrong in a campus, Well,

0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:08.800
<v Speaker 4>that doesn't do anything unless you can have it to

0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.760
<v Speaker 4>the appropriate alert systems. We do that every day with

0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:13.480
<v Speaker 4>our workflow and our processes.

0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:17.640
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned you want revenue to outpace the decline of

0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:21.599
<v Speaker 2>the actual print and paper business.

0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:23.880
<v Speaker 3>Does that hit a floor.

0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:28.359
<v Speaker 2>Somewhere where Yes, people are using more electronic communications, so

0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:29.440
<v Speaker 2>they're not printing as much.

0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:31.200
<v Speaker 3>But when does that decline stop?

0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:33.320
<v Speaker 4>So two things prison A print is not dead, which

0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:34.040
<v Speaker 4>is really interesting.

0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:38.839
<v Speaker 3>People look at print. It is not dead. A ton

0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:39.279
<v Speaker 3>of print.

0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:41.760
<v Speaker 4>It's a shift right, even the badge coming in right,

0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:43.680
<v Speaker 4>you think about the bridges coming into this bound in print.

0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:46.200
<v Speaker 4>So print even you take a look at ups boxes,

0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:49.320
<v Speaker 4>Amazon boxes, we're printing a ton. So print isn't debt.

0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:51.720
<v Speaker 4>We have to move where print is. When you take

0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:54.159
<v Speaker 4>a look at TAGA decline in print over the next

0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:56.840
<v Speaker 4>couple of years, it's two to three percent decline. So

0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:59.119
<v Speaker 4>we want to decline slower than us who we're actually

0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.640
<v Speaker 4>gaining market share. But the other real thing is when

0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:04.440
<v Speaker 4>you think about print, there's a tremendous amount of value

0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:09.080
<v Speaker 4>inside of print value and invoices, valuing contracts value in

0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:12.799
<v Speaker 4>medical records. We can help our clients to unleash that

0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:16.640
<v Speaker 4>that particular data, unleash that power of that data and

0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.680
<v Speaker 4>actually turn into something that's actionable. And that's what we're

0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:20.920
<v Speaker 4>working on helping our clients.

0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:23.400
<v Speaker 5>You know, looking at your stock, it's been on a

0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:26.839
<v Speaker 5>somewhat steady, you know, decline. Let me just throw it out.

0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:28.840
<v Speaker 5>It lost fifty four percent last year. It is up

0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.200
<v Speaker 5>eight percent a year to date. About seventeen percent though

0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:34.440
<v Speaker 5>of the float is shorted. So there's a real negative

0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.640
<v Speaker 5>skew in terms of what investors expect from you guys

0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:42.200
<v Speaker 5>as part of the strategy. Ultimately, is someone buying you

0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.800
<v Speaker 5>guys out? I mean, have you had interested suitors? Is

0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:45.200
<v Speaker 5>that it?

0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.000
<v Speaker 4>You know, just the opposite. We're going to be the consolidated.

0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:50.080
<v Speaker 5>I know you've been buying, but I'm just curious, have

0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:50.920
<v Speaker 5>you had anybody?

0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.200
<v Speaker 4>No, we want to be a tech powerhouse. We want

0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:56.920
<v Speaker 4>to drive productivity in the workplace. We've got an incredible brand.

0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.279
<v Speaker 4>Do you think about Xerox. In the history of Xerox,

0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.960
<v Speaker 4>We've got ten thousand plus partners. You don't build that

0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:06.560
<v Speaker 4>channel partnership overnight. We have tremendous go to market assets,

0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:08.919
<v Speaker 4>tremendous assets what we do. So No, we're going to

0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:10.440
<v Speaker 4>be the consolidator in our industry?

0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:13.840
<v Speaker 5>Would you implore explore doing something even larger to kind

0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.200
<v Speaker 5>of scale does matter in this? Forsture, I don't know

0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:16.920
<v Speaker 5>what to tell you.

0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:19.120
<v Speaker 4>Look, I did the IBM PC spin out as part

0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:21.400
<v Speaker 4>of the team that built Lenovo, so I understand what

0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:24.200
<v Speaker 4>consolidation takes and what it looks like. We will be

0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.040
<v Speaker 4>the consolidator in our industry. We're going to be a

0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:26.960
<v Speaker 4>tech powerhouse again.

0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:27.360
<v Speaker 1>How much?

0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.360
<v Speaker 5>Because right now you're about a one point one billion

0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:32.120
<v Speaker 5>dollar marketing, Like what's your anticipation of like kind of

0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:33.760
<v Speaker 5>where you go if you think about the market.

0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.320
<v Speaker 4>Camp today for the we think we're tremendously on the

0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:36.880
<v Speaker 4>values from a market cap perspective.

0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:40.080
<v Speaker 3>You just take investors short. Yeah, right, But that's okay.

0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.480
<v Speaker 4>That's why I talk about the reinvention to three year strategy.

0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:45.280
<v Speaker 4>You know, I'm not trying to build something for tomorrow.

0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:48.160
<v Speaker 4>I'm trying to build something long term, sustainable growth and

0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:50.880
<v Speaker 4>something that puts us back in the tech powerhouse position.

0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:52.800
<v Speaker 4>What I love to see if you take a look

0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.000
<v Speaker 4>at it, savvy and you take a look the partners

0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.320
<v Speaker 4>that we have in the ecosystem and the reason why

0:07:57.360 --> 0:07:59.400
<v Speaker 4>they're coming to us is because we can reach clients

0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:00.400
<v Speaker 4>they don't read right.

0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:01.360
<v Speaker 3>And so when you.

0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:04.520
<v Speaker 4>Think about the office space, you think about hospitals, you

0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:07.000
<v Speaker 4>think about all the places that we service, we can

0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:10.520
<v Speaker 4>bring tremendous amount of value by bringing us partners into

0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:11.440
<v Speaker 4>that ecosystem.

0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:14.840
<v Speaker 2>I want to talk a little bit about the balance sheet.

0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.400
<v Speaker 2>Buybacks have stopped, dividends on the decline, partly due to acquisition. Yes,

0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:21.960
<v Speaker 2>free cash flow now targeted toward debt reduction. How much

0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:23.440
<v Speaker 2>debt do you think you can pay down over the

0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:25.720
<v Speaker 2>next two years and give us an idea of your

0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.200
<v Speaker 2>ultimate capital structure goals. And why even keep a dividend

0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:28.760
<v Speaker 2>at this point?

0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:30.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So a couple of things.

0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:31.880
<v Speaker 4>So first of all, we just recently announced that we

0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:33.680
<v Speaker 4>cut the dividend half, trying to get it back to

0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:35.880
<v Speaker 4>a normal ratio in terms of what was what would

0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:38.319
<v Speaker 4>we look like? And so we're really focusing on now

0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:39.839
<v Speaker 4>is how do we lower our debt. And one of

0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:41.480
<v Speaker 4>the things that people don't realize if you take a

0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.080
<v Speaker 4>look at out total debt. Inside of that total debt,

0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:47.360
<v Speaker 4>we have we call finance receivables where we have taken

0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:50.200
<v Speaker 4>leases or we've taken manage print services put it on

0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:51.000
<v Speaker 4>our balance sheet.

0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:52.040
<v Speaker 3>We flip that.

0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:54.000
<v Speaker 4>Strategy a couple of years ago and we called forward

0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:56.199
<v Speaker 4>front agreement. So what happens at the end of each quarter,

0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:58.880
<v Speaker 4>we have a company that actually buys those receivables, we

0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.840
<v Speaker 4>get that cash back in and so today we started

0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:03.839
<v Speaker 4>that journey and we said we had about one point

0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:06.439
<v Speaker 4>four billion that we can actually put cash back onto

0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:09.160
<v Speaker 4>the balance sheet. We have about two years left of that,

0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.640
<v Speaker 4>so that gives us, if we do nothing other than

0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.760
<v Speaker 4>continued a strategy, roughly four hundred million dollars for the

0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:16.760
<v Speaker 4>next two years that we put on a balance sheet,

0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:19.600
<v Speaker 4>and we're using that to drive our reinvention. We're using

0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:22.360
<v Speaker 4>that to drive our acquisitions. We're using that to.

0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:23.160
<v Speaker 3>Reduce our debt.

0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:25.199
<v Speaker 4>So we loaded the dividends so that we can help

0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:27.840
<v Speaker 4>pay back our debt when we do. The Lexmann acquisition

0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:28.959
<v Speaker 4>will accelerate that.

0:09:29.240 --> 0:09:31.000
<v Speaker 5>So you paid down how much debt in the of

0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:32.080
<v Speaker 5>the next two years, only got.

0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:33.160
<v Speaker 4>About ten to y Yeah, the goal is to get

0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:34.720
<v Speaker 4>around three to three and a half percent.

0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:39.520
<v Speaker 5>Okay, reduction, reduction, Okay, all right, good to know we've

0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:41.360
<v Speaker 5>ran out of time. We had a million more questions

0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:43.079
<v Speaker 5>come back, Hopefully you'll come back.

0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.160
<v Speaker 4>I look forward to so much for having me on.

0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.600
<v Speaker 5>Steve, of course, is the CEO of Xerox Holdings Corporation,

0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.160
<v Speaker 5>joining us right here in our Bloomberg Business Week studio.

0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:51.880
<v Speaker 5>This is Blueberg.

0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.800
<v Speaker 2>Carol, I don't know you. You were listening to Caroline

0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:59.360
<v Speaker 2>Levitt earlier of the UH I almost said to buy

0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:00.559
<v Speaker 2>the Trump and administration.

0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.319
<v Speaker 3>She's the White House Press secretary, right, you heard that

0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.360
<v Speaker 3>little bit. She was asked, I know we were preparing

0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:06.880
<v Speaker 3>for a show.

0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:08.439
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, to be fair, but we were listening.

0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:08.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:09.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because it.

0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:11.520
<v Speaker 3>Was the first White House Press briefing.

0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:12.199
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly.

0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:13.960
<v Speaker 3>She said that the National.

0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:17.680
<v Speaker 2>Security Council is studying concerns associated with the Chinese AI

0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:20.920
<v Speaker 2>company Deep Seek. That's according to the White House Press Secretary.

0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:22.600
<v Speaker 2>She was asked about it todayt her first press briefing.

0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.240
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's interesting, right, and we've had Trump's ais are

0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:29.000
<v Speaker 5>David Sachsing and Fox News that there is substantial evidence

0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:32.000
<v Speaker 5>at Deep Seek distilled knowledge from open a Eyes.

0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:33.800
<v Speaker 2>Model, so dust is settling.

0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:35.920
<v Speaker 5>You know, well this listen, We've talked about this with

0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.360
<v Speaker 5>our own Rachel Metz. That Open Ai, according to someone

0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:41.960
<v Speaker 5>in the know, a person familiar that they seem to

0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:47.640
<v Speaker 5>be looking into exactly how deep seek did what they

0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:52.120
<v Speaker 5>did and whether or not they tapped into a open

0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:56.520
<v Speaker 5>aies model. So it's interesting and I think this is

0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:57.959
<v Speaker 5>part of what we're trying to figure out in the

0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:01.560
<v Speaker 5>last twenty four to forty eight hours since the story

0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.600
<v Speaker 5>hit yesterday about deep Seek's capabilities and being able to

0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:06.920
<v Speaker 5>do what it did in terms of creating a chatbot

0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:13.000
<v Speaker 5>add a much cheaper it seemed like investment input. Uh,

0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.640
<v Speaker 5>and so we're trying to understand did it really cost

0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:20.080
<v Speaker 5>that little? Are the capabilities on par with open aies chatchypt.

0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:21.800
<v Speaker 5>I don't know. There's a lot of questions we're trying

0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:23.840
<v Speaker 5>to figure out, and what did they use to do it.

0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:27.200
<v Speaker 2>That was a point that Ian King also made to

0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:31.440
<v Speaker 2>us earlier in the program. He said, well, if they

0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:37.760
<v Speaker 2>indeed were able to use these degraded Nvidia GPUs that

0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.920
<v Speaker 2>are not subject to export restrictions, then that would be

0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:44.200
<v Speaker 2>pretty remarkable, right right, because that would show you don't

0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.240
<v Speaker 2>need the compute that you thought you needed in order

0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:47.440
<v Speaker 2>to do something to the scale.

0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:50.080
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, I feel like there's still

0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:53.760
<v Speaker 5>a lot of questions and we're getting more information, so too,

0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:55.719
<v Speaker 5>this is going to be there's going to be more

0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:56.600
<v Speaker 5>to come curate.

0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm curious what Michelle Geida thinks about it. She's CEO

0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.959
<v Speaker 2>of the Croc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Produce. She's

0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:05.200
<v Speaker 2>also former Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs.

0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:07.839
<v Speaker 2>She did that in the first Trump administration from twenty

0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.439
<v Speaker 2>eighteen to twenty twenty. She joins us from Nashua, New

0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.720
<v Speaker 2>Hampshire this afternoon. Michelle, how did you look at the

0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:18.520
<v Speaker 2>news about deep Seek that really we learned last week

0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.160
<v Speaker 2>but really came to the fore yesterday.

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.040
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, as you guys were just saying, there are were

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 6>and still are a lot of question marks around deep Seek,

0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 6>in particular, how much did it really cost for them

0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.760
<v Speaker 6>to develop this new quote unquote cheap model that they've

0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 6>self reported. Did they do it without in video chips

0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 6>or the advanced in video chips? Did they do it

0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 6>without subsidies? So still a lot of question marks. I

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.880
<v Speaker 6>think the most important thing to focus on is what's ahead,

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:49.280
<v Speaker 6>And regardless of whether this was an effort in which

0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.360
<v Speaker 6>a Chinese government had a hand or not, the Chinese

0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.280
<v Speaker 6>government will have a hand in it going forward. Because

0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 6>if it is as strategic as it sounds, deep Seek

0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:01.600
<v Speaker 6>is a game changer, could be a game changer for

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 6>the overall AI ecosystem and being able to more efficiently

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.280
<v Speaker 6>compute than we've done before. And so we can anticipate

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:12.440
<v Speaker 6>that the Chinese government is going to co opt this

0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.120
<v Speaker 6>and start to use it to its strategic advantage for

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:18.880
<v Speaker 6>civil military fusion where there are no barriers between a

0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 6>consumer app and what China wants to do with a

0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:25.679
<v Speaker 6>military and that has implications for our national security all right.

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 5>But at the same time, you know, most nations would

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:30.600
<v Speaker 5>say I'm gonna play Devil's advocate a little bit, right,

0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 5>the US is trying to be the best as well

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:34.679
<v Speaker 5>when it comes to AI. Right, this is what just

0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.680
<v Speaker 5>goes on around the world. I'm sure Europe wants to

0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:39.920
<v Speaker 5>make sure that they are, you know, in the game

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.000
<v Speaker 5>as well when it comes to AI. I understand not

0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 5>all parts of the world collaborate, certainly on advanced technology,

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:49.960
<v Speaker 5>and there are national security concerns. So what's the right

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.720
<v Speaker 5>policy going forward where a certain amount of collaboration is required,

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 5>especially you know, whether it's you know, nuclear warheads or AI,

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.000
<v Speaker 5>we need a certain amount of collab aberration to make

0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.240
<v Speaker 5>sure that the world can survive going forward.

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.719
<v Speaker 6>Yes, you're exactly right, and that's what tech diplomacy is

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.040
<v Speaker 6>all about, is how do we get trusted partners and

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.520
<v Speaker 6>allies that includes the europe and like minded partners who

0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.640
<v Speaker 6>ultimately believe in freedom, who ultimately believe in the dignity

0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 6>of individuals, who do things like abide by the rule

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.120
<v Speaker 6>of law. So we're looking for those trusted partners. Europe

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 6>is a great example. Indo Pacific partners are a great example.

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.040
<v Speaker 6>The challenge with China is that they have proven time

0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.480
<v Speaker 6>again that they are in authoritarian state and they have

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 6>a different value set that they want to advance through

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.200
<v Speaker 6>the use of emerging technology. So you're exactly right. The

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.080
<v Speaker 6>more allies that we can get behind trusted technology that

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 6>advances things like liberty and security, the better.

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.200
<v Speaker 2>Is there a concern that in this administration we could

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:52.520
<v Speaker 2>potentially alienate some of our allies. We saw what happen

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.880
<v Speaker 2>over the weekend with Columbia. There's a real tit for

0:14:55.960 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 2>tat going on there Mexico. In sending these planes of

0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 2>migrants back, We've i know, ruffled some feathers there to

0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 2>the north with potential tariffs on Canada. What about when

0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 2>it comes to parts of Europe with discussion of Greenland,

0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:18.920
<v Speaker 2>the Panama Canal as well in the you know, in

0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:23.240
<v Speaker 2>Central America. Is there a chance that we could alienate

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 2>allies who might be important when it comes to tech diplomacy.

0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 6>Well, this is what diplomacy is all about. It's the

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.760
<v Speaker 6>art of being able to advance your own national interests

0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 6>at the same time, you can do it in collaboration

0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 6>with trusted partners and allies who have similar interests. And

0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 6>let's not forget in the first Trump administration, the founders

0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 6>of the Kroc Institute, Keith Krack and Mung Chang At,

0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.920
<v Speaker 6>the president of Purdue University, built the Clean Network to

0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 6>secure five G that had sixty countries and two hundred

0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:55.760
<v Speaker 6>telecommunications companies all working together to put trust at the

0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 6>center of five G and not use untrusted vendors like Huawei.

0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.600
<v Speaker 6>So well, there is a case study on how to

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 6>work together with sixty countries at least to secure critical technology.

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.840
<v Speaker 6>And I think there's a similar opportunity to do that now.

0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 5>So Michelle, let me ask you. You have some insight

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:18.120
<v Speaker 5>having been a member of the Trump administration the first

0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 5>first go round. And I'm just curious that the diplomacy

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 5>that we're seeing so far out of the White House

0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.760
<v Speaker 5>feels like it can be somewhat combative even to former

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:31.560
<v Speaker 5>US allies. You sound like you are arguing that we

0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 5>should be, you know, if anything, reaching out perhaps to

0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.680
<v Speaker 5>our European allies to make sure that we are working together,

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.560
<v Speaker 5>to collaborate on something like AI, to make sure that

0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 5>there is supremacy for the United States as well as

0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 5>with our allies against maybe other foes. So how does

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 5>the diplomacy that we might get or lack thereof, out

0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 5>of this current administration perhaps maybe is problematic, especially when

0:16:55.480 --> 0:17:00.720
<v Speaker 5>it comes to something like AI, development, supremacy, security.

0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.640
<v Speaker 6>Well, remember that diplomacy as a means to an end.

0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:08.480
<v Speaker 6>Diplomacy doesn't happen for diplomacy's sake. It's ultimately to advance

0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.320
<v Speaker 6>the interests of the United States. And when you think

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.720
<v Speaker 6>about the case study with the clean network in twenty

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 6>twenty in the last the first Trump administration and what

0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 6>we stand to do now remember it's also really early

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 6>in the administration. But diplomacy as a means to an end,

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:25.960
<v Speaker 6>and so the ultimate measure of success is did we

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:28.879
<v Speaker 6>advance the interests of the United States and ideally our

0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 6>partners and allies at the same time, And there's different

0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.679
<v Speaker 6>methods for doing that. And when you have trusted partners

0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:36.960
<v Speaker 6>and allies, you can be open and honest and have

0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:40.080
<v Speaker 6>direct conversations around how you achieve these ultimate goals.

0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:43.119
<v Speaker 5>Well, what insight can you give us about having been

0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.639
<v Speaker 5>part of the first Trump administration in terms of I

0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:48.240
<v Speaker 5>think it's fair to say I've been talking with a

0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 5>lot of CEOs, we have organizations saying it's early days,

0:17:52.200 --> 0:17:54.600
<v Speaker 5>as you said, in the administration, But how do you

0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:58.240
<v Speaker 5>from someone who has some inside knowledge of kind of

0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:02.800
<v Speaker 5>what is maybe just talk are speaking, you know, kind

0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.199
<v Speaker 5>of harder, and what is the things that really will

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:10.080
<v Speaker 5>become actions and policy that will impact businesses and markets

0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:11.000
<v Speaker 5>and relationships.

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:13.720
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well, it's always hard to tell them. I'm not

0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 6>in government right now, and so the thing to know

0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:20.720
<v Speaker 6>is that there are generally multiple channels of communication, whether

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:23.639
<v Speaker 6>it's coming from the State Department or other agencies, but

0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:26.760
<v Speaker 6>there are multiple lines of communication, and so all of

0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:31.199
<v Speaker 6>those things happened together to help advance America's interests. What

0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:34.560
<v Speaker 6>I can say is under this administration, what we've seen

0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.800
<v Speaker 6>so far when it comes to the leading theme for

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.480
<v Speaker 6>this administration, when they say America First, we've seen that

0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:44.280
<v Speaker 6>it also means innovation first, and when it comes to

0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:48.040
<v Speaker 6>artificial intelligence, that means supporting and advocating for projects like

0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.679
<v Speaker 6>the Stargate project that was announced last week. Up to

0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:54.240
<v Speaker 6>half a billion dollars being dedicated toward American leadership and

0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:55.320
<v Speaker 6>artificial intelligence.

0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:57.359
<v Speaker 5>That is, though if the government, that is, if company

0:18:57.520 --> 0:18:59.640
<v Speaker 5>right after that. But that's if companies spend it, right,

0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:03.320
<v Speaker 5>I mean, there isn't any government money, and some taxpayers

0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:05.280
<v Speaker 5>might find that to be a good thing, But I mean,

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:09.120
<v Speaker 5>having said that, it's there are questions, even Elon Musk's question,

0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:11.399
<v Speaker 5>whether or not the companies have the money to actually

0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 5>spend on that. So if we leave it completely in

0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.080
<v Speaker 5>the private sector, could that be problematic? And if so,

0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.280
<v Speaker 5>what role should the government have in supporting something like AI?

0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:23.080
<v Speaker 6>But I think you hit the nail on the head,

0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 6>and the point there is that the government is unleashing

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.159
<v Speaker 6>the private sector and laying out the vision and the

0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:33.359
<v Speaker 6>mandate for American innovators, not American regulators, American innovators to

0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:35.920
<v Speaker 6>make sure that we're leading an artificial intelligence, and we

0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.400
<v Speaker 6>know through the course of our history that is how

0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:40.320
<v Speaker 6>we lead, and that is how we win and compete.

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:42.920
<v Speaker 6>We will not regulate our way to becoming the world

0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 6>capital of AI together with our partners in ally so

0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:50.400
<v Speaker 6>unleashing the private sector and launching the next few stargate

0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:52.840
<v Speaker 6>projects would be the most effective thing the government can

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 6>help catalyze right now.

0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.440
<v Speaker 2>Michelle, you mentioned you're not currently in government. You're a

0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:00.600
<v Speaker 2>former Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs from

0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 2>twenty eighteen to twenty twenty in the first Trump administration.

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:07.920
<v Speaker 2>We haven't spoken since the new president. The president has

0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.720
<v Speaker 2>been sworn in again, would you go back and work

0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:11.879
<v Speaker 2>in his administration again?

0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 6>You know, it was an honor to serve the first time.

0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:18.240
<v Speaker 6>My family came here from Vietnam. My father served in

0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:21.159
<v Speaker 6>the Vietnam War, and so I believe fully that it

0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:22.840
<v Speaker 6>is an honor to serve your country at any time.

0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:24.840
<v Speaker 6>But look, the work that we're doing the CROC Institute

0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 6>for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue is really vital. We are

0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:30.359
<v Speaker 6>making sure that we're working with partners and allies in

0:20:30.359 --> 0:20:33.600
<v Speaker 6>the private sector and as well as with government to

0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:37.960
<v Speaker 6>make sure technology advances freedom, Perdue is doing extraordinary work

0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:41.359
<v Speaker 6>graduating more engineers than any other top university in the

0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:44.760
<v Speaker 6>country in order to advance national security. So I'm honored

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:46.080
<v Speaker 6>to be doing this work right now.

0:20:46.520 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 5>All right, we're going to leave it on that note. Michelle,

0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:50.840
<v Speaker 5>thank you so much, really appreciate it. Michelle Gaide she

0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:54.400
<v Speaker 5>CEO of the Kroc Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue and,

0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:57.359
<v Speaker 5>as we said earlier, former Assistant Secretary of State for

0:20:57.400 --> 0:21:00.760
<v Speaker 5>Global Public Affairs from twenty eighteen to twenty twenty. So

0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:03.880
<v Speaker 5>that was during the first Trump administration. Joining us from

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:04.679
<v Speaker 5>New Hampshire.

0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:06.520
<v Speaker 3>You know, we haven't talked a lot about Eco data

0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:08.159
<v Speaker 3>every since. It's kind of it's been wild.

0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:10.480
<v Speaker 5>I was thinking about getting ready for this segment. I'm like,

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 5>oh yeah, Eco Data fed me like it's just.

0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 3>Always saw Mike m Key earlier today. Yeah, he's on

0:21:16.320 --> 0:21:18.640
<v Speaker 3>his way to DC right now for tomorrow. Right, that's

0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:19.240
<v Speaker 3>how he rolls.

0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:22.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, maybe he's listening or watching right breaking down that Mike.

0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.359
<v Speaker 2>US home price gains picked up pace in November as

0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:28.040
<v Speaker 2>buyers remained on the hunt for properties even in the face.

0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:29.080
<v Speaker 3>Of higher borrowing costs.

0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:32.119
<v Speaker 2>We're talking about the national gauge of prices the SMP

0:21:32.520 --> 0:21:36.040
<v Speaker 2>core Logic Case Schiller, rising three point eight percent from

0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:38.200
<v Speaker 2>a year earlier. It was larger than three point six

0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:40.560
<v Speaker 2>percent annual increase back in October.

0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:43.080
<v Speaker 5>All right, so we want to talk about housing. And

0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:45.679
<v Speaker 5>this is a favorite guest. Katie Hubbard watches all of

0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:49.000
<v Speaker 5>this closely. She's executive vice president of Capital markets over

0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:52.520
<v Speaker 5>at Walton globally Walton Global, excuse me. They are a

0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:55.560
<v Speaker 5>privately owned asset and real estate investment company. They've got

0:21:55.640 --> 0:21:58.640
<v Speaker 5>nearly four point four billion dollars worth of land under management,

0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:02.199
<v Speaker 5>nearly ninety thousand eight under management across the United States,

0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:05.640
<v Speaker 5>and they operate in the retail, industrial, and commercial sectors.

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:08.560
<v Speaker 5>But it's a great read on housing in particular. Katie

0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:10.920
<v Speaker 5>joining us from Denver. Katie, good to have you back

0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:14.159
<v Speaker 5>with us. We talked to you periodically. How would you

0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:18.280
<v Speaker 5>describe the housing market and the market for development and

0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:19.520
<v Speaker 5>building of homes right now?

0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:23.240
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, So the year ended high, Carolyn, Tim, thank you

0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:25.600
<v Speaker 7>so much for having me. I mean, all of all

0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 7>of the sentiments were up. Homebuilders sentiment is up, a

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:33.160
<v Speaker 7>new home sales are up, prices and also resale is up,

0:22:33.400 --> 0:22:35.280
<v Speaker 7>and so that's trickling as you see into the Case

0:22:35.280 --> 0:22:38.400
<v Speaker 7>Shiller numbers. The reason the prices are up on Case

0:22:38.400 --> 0:22:41.520
<v Speaker 7>Shiller is because there is a supply issue. So as

0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 7>we've talked about before, it's definitely regional and its seasonal.

0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:47.560
<v Speaker 7>So New York posted high the highest games is seven

0:22:47.600 --> 0:22:51.359
<v Speaker 7>point two percent your over year, Chicago coming in second,

0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:54.640
<v Speaker 7>just over six percent, in Washington behind that just under

0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:59.280
<v Speaker 7>six percent. However, Tampa came in at negative zero point

0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:02.080
<v Speaker 7>four percent you and that's just because of the supply

0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:05.439
<v Speaker 7>in those markets. We're Chicago's just over two months, just

0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:08.959
<v Speaker 7>two months of supply, New York at historical low supply,

0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:11.840
<v Speaker 7>and Tampa's hovering over nine months of supply. And so

0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:15.479
<v Speaker 7>that's that's feeding into the price. The price is that

0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:16.040
<v Speaker 7>you see there.

0:23:16.200 --> 0:23:17.680
<v Speaker 2>How are you seeing this play out in your world?

0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:20.160
<v Speaker 2>Because you're you're very far from the world of single

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:24.240
<v Speaker 2>family homes. You're from the world of you know, large

0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:27.119
<v Speaker 2>tracts of land that are sold then to the folks

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:30.119
<v Speaker 2>who build those developments that have those single family and

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:32.879
<v Speaker 2>multi family homes. How does the data that we get

0:23:32.920 --> 0:23:35.119
<v Speaker 2>on a month to month basis affect the decisions that

0:23:35.160 --> 0:23:36.200
<v Speaker 2>you make at Walton.

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:39.679
<v Speaker 7>Global yeah, Tim, So we are feeding land to the

0:23:39.680 --> 0:23:41.840
<v Speaker 7>public homebuilders. That's what we do a Walton. We have

0:23:42.359 --> 0:23:45.560
<v Speaker 7>over one point eight billion dollars currently under contract for

0:23:45.640 --> 0:23:48.200
<v Speaker 7>over sixty thousand lots, so we're very close to what

0:23:48.520 --> 0:23:50.800
<v Speaker 7>the home builder sentiment is and they need more land.

0:23:51.160 --> 0:23:53.119
<v Speaker 7>And as you know we've talked about before, there's an

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:57.359
<v Speaker 7>affordability issue and unless rates drop dramatically, which we know

0:23:57.480 --> 0:24:00.600
<v Speaker 7>that's not going to be happening anytime soon, or prices

0:24:00.640 --> 0:24:03.080
<v Speaker 7>drop and with low inventory, prices aren't going to drop.

0:24:03.359 --> 0:24:05.960
<v Speaker 7>We just we need more homes, We need more home supplied.

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:08.480
<v Speaker 7>We need builders to build more homes to keep the

0:24:08.520 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 7>affordability in check. And so our largest client is the

0:24:12.040 --> 0:24:14.240
<v Speaker 7>our hoard in the number one home builder and they're

0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:18.159
<v Speaker 7>really closing that affordability gap where twenty eight percent of

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:21.520
<v Speaker 7>new homes sold last year were sold at the three

0:24:21.640 --> 0:24:24.280
<v Speaker 7>hundred to three hundred and ninety nine thousand dollars price range,

0:24:24.280 --> 0:24:28.440
<v Speaker 7>So you can see people targeting that affordable house and

0:24:28.040 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 7>that's that's up in that category to twenty eight percent

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 7>of all home sold, which is a big jump since

0:24:32.800 --> 0:24:33.679
<v Speaker 7>twenty twenty one.

0:24:33.800 --> 0:24:38.200
<v Speaker 5>How cautious, Katie, are builders when it comes to building.

0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:41.359
<v Speaker 5>They never want to overbuild, right because that's going to

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:44.600
<v Speaker 5>hurt them. So how cautious? Because I feel like we

0:24:45.280 --> 0:24:48.120
<v Speaker 5>have been talking about the lack of supply, the lack

0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 5>of affordable housing forever. So how careful are they? I

0:24:53.400 --> 0:24:58.560
<v Speaker 5>understand permitting in regional variations, but to be fair, how careful?

0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:00.760
<v Speaker 5>And I understand they have to be when publicly held,

0:25:00.800 --> 0:25:02.720
<v Speaker 5>but how careful are they to make sure that they

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:05.119
<v Speaker 5>don't overbuild and so that maybe holds back supply?

0:25:06.720 --> 0:25:09.320
<v Speaker 7>It does. I mean, our builders are the largest, our

0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:13.040
<v Speaker 7>clients are the largest builders, and they're definitely bullish on

0:25:13.040 --> 0:25:16.639
<v Speaker 7>what's happening because in order for people to get that home,

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.919
<v Speaker 7>they're buying down mortgage rates and they need land to

0:25:19.920 --> 0:25:21.399
<v Speaker 7>be able to build the homes they're going to. I mean,

0:25:21.440 --> 0:25:24.760
<v Speaker 7>deer Horn's gonna build over ninety thousand homes this year

0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:28.400
<v Speaker 7>and sell ninety thousand homes. Where smaller builders are absolutely

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:30.760
<v Speaker 7>more cautious. They don't have the ability to finance land

0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:33.200
<v Speaker 7>off balance sheet. They have to really build and sell

0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:35.080
<v Speaker 7>as they go, and so they can't get caught with

0:25:35.119 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 7>too much inventory or the public builders they can go

0:25:37.880 --> 0:25:40.800
<v Speaker 7>to a private equity firm investors and say hey, we've

0:25:40.800 --> 0:25:43.680
<v Speaker 7>got too much inventory, and sell chunks of homes at

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:46.000
<v Speaker 7>a time if needed, so that they don't go into

0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.920
<v Speaker 7>spring season having too much inventory on their books. So

0:25:49.240 --> 0:25:52.480
<v Speaker 7>they're watching it closely, but they have levers to pull

0:25:52.600 --> 0:25:55.640
<v Speaker 7>because they've got very strong margins, and so they've got

0:25:55.680 --> 0:25:58.080
<v Speaker 7>just different ways the big builders in order to be

0:25:58.160 --> 0:26:00.639
<v Speaker 7>able to manage that supply and control the land to

0:26:00.760 --> 0:26:02.919
<v Speaker 7>keep building homes and keep that supply.

0:26:03.320 --> 0:26:05.160
<v Speaker 5>So in New York, you mentioned numbers in New York

0:26:05.160 --> 0:26:07.800
<v Speaker 5>in terms of housing supply and what's going on. Your

0:26:07.880 --> 0:26:11.480
<v Speaker 5>governor Kathy Hochel has proposed restrictions on large financial firms

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:15.760
<v Speaker 5>buying homes. State legislators of Virginia and Nebraska have had

0:26:15.800 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 5>similar ideas. The ideas that you know, investors are buying out,

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:25.159
<v Speaker 5>reducing the supply. What is your take and what you

0:26:25.280 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 5>are seeing? Do homebuilders want to make sure that private

0:26:28.000 --> 0:26:29.840
<v Speaker 5>equity is still in that market so that if they

0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 5>have over supply, they're in there to pick up.

0:26:31.640 --> 0:26:35.880
<v Speaker 7>The homes, not necessarily in those urban infill locations where

0:26:35.880 --> 0:26:38.680
<v Speaker 7>they're constrained. I'm talking about, you know, building large master

0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:42.040
<v Speaker 7>planned communities more on the outskirts of you know of

0:26:42.160 --> 0:26:46.159
<v Speaker 7>the outskirts of the core, but as far as New

0:26:46.240 --> 0:26:48.600
<v Speaker 7>York goes, I would say one thing that is keeping

0:26:48.760 --> 0:26:53.440
<v Speaker 7>the prices high in supply low is that only nineteen

0:26:53.480 --> 0:26:57.639
<v Speaker 7>percent of the entire state have mortgages over six percent,

0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:00.800
<v Speaker 7>so you're really seeing a lock in rate effect in

0:27:00.800 --> 0:27:01.359
<v Speaker 7>that market.

0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:06.920
<v Speaker 2>Kidding the price, Katie, I want to talk a little

0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:10.439
<v Speaker 2>bit about what the federal government could do to increase

0:27:10.440 --> 0:27:13.119
<v Speaker 2>housing supply in this country. We heard Jdvans bring it

0:27:13.160 --> 0:27:16.359
<v Speaker 2>up actually at one of the the only vice presidential debate,

0:27:16.640 --> 0:27:19.119
<v Speaker 2>talking about the idea of selling federal fund for federal

0:27:19.200 --> 0:27:23.399
<v Speaker 2>lands rather or building homes on federal lands. Are you

0:27:24.160 --> 0:27:26.760
<v Speaker 2>thinking about that realistically as a way that the federal

0:27:26.800 --> 0:27:29.640
<v Speaker 2>government increases housing supply in this country.

0:27:30.160 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 7>Well, you know, we heard President Trump at Davo say

0:27:32.760 --> 0:27:35.240
<v Speaker 7>that he's just going to demand that interest rates come down,

0:27:35.320 --> 0:27:37.960
<v Speaker 7>So it's definitely top of mind for them of how

0:27:37.960 --> 0:27:40.760
<v Speaker 7>they can increase the affordability. We're really to wait and

0:27:40.760 --> 0:27:42.639
<v Speaker 7>see with what the government policies are going to do,

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:46.919
<v Speaker 7>whether it's tariffs that could cause the material prices to

0:27:46.960 --> 0:27:49.200
<v Speaker 7>go up and then that would cause inflation, and inflation

0:27:49.320 --> 0:27:52.480
<v Speaker 7>comes in, then mortgage rates will increase. Obviously they're talking

0:27:52.480 --> 0:27:55.600
<v Speaker 7>about mass deportation, which there's already a labor shortage. We

0:27:55.640 --> 0:27:58.560
<v Speaker 7>already can't build enough homes, I mean, building a million

0:27:58.640 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 7>homes a year now is difficult because of labor. I mean,

0:28:02.800 --> 0:28:05.040
<v Speaker 7>so if there's an even further labor shortage, that could

0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:07.560
<v Speaker 7>drive prices up. And then on the flip side of that,

0:28:07.680 --> 0:28:13.480
<v Speaker 7>talking about you know, government spending, tax cuts, deregulation, so

0:28:13.520 --> 0:28:16.720
<v Speaker 7>making building easier. Those are all things where our clients

0:28:16.760 --> 0:28:18.440
<v Speaker 7>are at a wait and see. We're going to see

0:28:18.560 --> 0:28:21.639
<v Speaker 7>what happens with those policies, and they'll have to report

0:28:21.720 --> 0:28:23.920
<v Speaker 7>back on the government selling their land.

0:28:24.240 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 5>All right, good stuff, A big overview and such an

0:28:26.800 --> 0:28:29.560
<v Speaker 5>important part certainly of the US economy. Katie Hubbard is

0:28:29.600 --> 0:28:33.200
<v Speaker 5>executive VP of Capital Markets over at Walton Global, joining

0:28:33.320 --> 0:28:36.280
<v Speaker 5>us on this Tuesday from Denver, Colorado. Katie, thanks again