1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:04,880
Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome.

3
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:08,360
Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

4
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,640
Speaker 1: We're throwing up.

5
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:14,960
Speaker 2: I'm sitting it to cash. Touchdo.

6
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920
Speaker 4: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

7
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:20,280
Speaker 4: go to wind.

8
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 2: That's incredible.

9
00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:24,840
Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

10
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,160
Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to

11
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:35,159
Speaker 3: fall and we are underway.

12
00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,839
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

13
00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 1: am your host Jill Gallant, filling him for Chris Raybond.

14
00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,239
Speaker 1: Here for NFL Week eighteen, and it's time for the

15
00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:50,040
Speaker 1: Touchdown Show more Anytime Touchdowns for week eighteen. Sean Kerr,

16
00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:52,280
Speaker 1: or the Odds Maker, is back for NFL Week eighteen,

17
00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,000
Speaker 1: and we've got Grant Ney for filling in for Chris Raybond.

18
00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,400
Speaker 1: He worked does great work at Scores and Odds last week, though,

19
00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 1: guys had a pretty good week for Touchdown Show Pod.

20
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 1: We hit the Sunday Night football Parlay Cerner. We had

21
00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,759
Speaker 1: Juwan Jennings, Luther Burden, Jake Tongus, Trey McBride, Hunter, Henry,

22
00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,080
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin. So we had some pretty good winners last week.

23
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:12,640
Speaker 1: We're going to try to bring some more for you.

24
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:13,640
Speaker 2: For Week eighteen.

25
00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,080
Speaker 1: We're going to go through the entire NFL Week eighteen

26
00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,679
Speaker 1: slate and we'll find some guys we're seeing value on

27
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,920
Speaker 1: in the anytime touchdown market, and we're going to track

28
00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,640
Speaker 1: all of those bets in the Touchdown Show account on

29
00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,319
Speaker 1: the Action Network apps. So be sure to follow that account,

30
00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:27,880
Speaker 1: and if you want to tell any of these bets,

31
00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,080
Speaker 1: look for the quick slip link in the podcast and

32
00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,640
Speaker 1: video description, or you can go to Action network dot

33
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,040
Speaker 1: com slash bet now. Now, before we get into these touchdowns,

34
00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:38,080
Speaker 1: I'll toss it over to Chris Raybond for a word

35
00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:39,080
Speaker 1: from our sponsor.

36
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,680
Speaker 4: The Action Network podcast has teamed up with Draft Kings sportsbook,

37
00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,400
Speaker 4: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two

38
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 4: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.

39
00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,600
Speaker 4: Staying on the action and use your bonus bets on

40
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:58,280
Speaker 4: Draftkings's same game parways for a shot at an even

41
00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:03,000
Speaker 4: bigger payout. To get started, use promo code Action Network

42
00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:07,920
Speaker 4: when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use code Action Network

43
00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,080
Speaker 4: when signing up and bet five bucks to get two

44
00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,760
Speaker 4: hundred back in bonus bets if your bet wins.

45
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 3: The crown is yours.

46
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,000
Speaker 1: All right, we're wake eighteen. We've got two games on

47
00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:25,280
Speaker 1: Saturday with big playoff implications. We got Carolina going to

48
00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,880
Speaker 1: Tampa to play the Buccaneers and we've got the Seahawks

49
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,600
Speaker 1: going to San Francisco to play the forty nine Ers. Curner,

50
00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:32,680
Speaker 1: you're up first. What touchdown bets do you like for

51
00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 1: Panthers Buccaneers?

52
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, So for the Bucks, I'm gonna go with Bucky

53
00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,240
Speaker 5: Irving here at plus one sixty five. You know, he's

54
00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,960
Speaker 5: really struggled in year two. He's you know, messed a

55
00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,519
Speaker 5: handful of games due to injury. Hasn't scored in three

56
00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,120
Speaker 5: straight games. So I think it's a good by low

57
00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,440
Speaker 5: spot on him because you know, despite his struggles, they've

58
00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,880
Speaker 5: been sticking with him as the clear lead back win healthy.

59
00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,160
Speaker 5: And you know, the Panthers have allowed ten touchdowns now

60
00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,040
Speaker 5: over the last six games to running backs, so this

61
00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,119
Speaker 5: is a good spot for running backs in general. And

62
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,880
Speaker 5: you know, Sean Tucker's always a threat to score once

63
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 5: they get close to the goal line. He's been sort

64
00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,480
Speaker 5: of the vulture back. Not surprising. I kind of figured

65
00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,800
Speaker 5: that would be the case. But you know, Bucky's fully

66
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,320
Speaker 5: cable of scoring further out, especially as a pass catcher.

67
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,200
Speaker 5: You know, he has three receiving touchdowns this season. He's

68
00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,919
Speaker 5: very good after the catch, so you know he has

69
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:28,920
Speaker 5: multiple paths to get there. So I think it's it's

70
00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 5: a good Bilo spot on him at plus one sixty five.

71
00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,320
Speaker 5: And on the Panther side, you know, Mike Evans is

72
00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 5: in this game, but I'm going with another m Evans,

73
00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:43,560
Speaker 5: Mitchell Evans at plus six point fifty. I've always thought,

74
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,480
Speaker 5: you know him as like a sneaky touchdown bet because he's,

75
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,680
Speaker 5: you know, the Panthers number three tight end.

76
00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:49,960
Speaker 3: Who the hell would bet on him?

77
00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,920
Speaker 5: But he's usually out there in red zone package or

78
00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:58,360
Speaker 5: goal line packages, I should say, And you know Jatavian

79
00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,120
Speaker 5: Sanders is out. Avion missed three games earlier in the season,

80
00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,320
Speaker 5: and Evans scored a touchdown in two of those three games,

81
00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 5: so he stepped up with Sanders out in the pass.

82
00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:10,680
Speaker 5: So the fact that we give him a plus six

83
00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:12,840
Speaker 5: to fifty here, I think is good. I think you

84
00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:14,480
Speaker 5: know a lot of people are going to be in

85
00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:19,360
Speaker 5: on Rico Dawdle here, who needs a touchdown to hit

86
00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:21,400
Speaker 5: his incentive. So I think, you know, a lot of

87
00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,360
Speaker 5: the markets on him, so I think Evans is being

88
00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,400
Speaker 5: overlooked of it here at plus six point fifty, you know,

89
00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:30,480
Speaker 5: I'm projecting him closer to like plus five hundred. I

90
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 5: just think he's a sneaky bet here with with Sanders

91
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,919
Speaker 5: out plus. You know, the Buccaneers have allowed seven touchdowns

92
00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 5: in the last six games of tight ends. They allowed

93
00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,840
Speaker 5: that career game to Kyle Pitts, but they've been a

94
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,400
Speaker 5: little bit leakier against tight ends in general. So I

95
00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,200
Speaker 5: think Evans is definitely sneaky here.

96
00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 1: I think both Evans and Tremble too, because I think

97
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,240
Speaker 1: I'm seeing Tremble right now around five to one as well.

98
00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,120
Speaker 1: Like just I think you could bet both tight ends

99
00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,640
Speaker 1: for the Panthers in this game. And I think it's

100
00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:02,279
Speaker 1: funny to take kudos to you for taking an Evans

101
00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:05,359
Speaker 1: touchdown bet in a Bucks game and it's not Mike Evans.

102
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 1: They're just congratulations. That's really hard to do. So Mitch

103
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,560
Speaker 1: Evans seven to one, Bucky Irving Bustlin sixty five. That's

104
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,760
Speaker 1: from Kerner for Panthers Buccaneers, and reminder about this game

105
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,000
Speaker 1: the Bucks they need to win, but the Falcons also

106
00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 1: to lose if they want to clinch the NFC South title,

107
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,840
Speaker 1: So we'll see how that plays out on Sunday. Now

108
00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:26,479
Speaker 1: we move to the Seahawks at the forty nine Ers.

109
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 1: The NFC West title, the NFC number one seed is

110
00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,880
Speaker 1: up for grabs. Grant, I'm sure you're pretty sure where

111
00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,719
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with this. On the Niner side,

112
00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,880
Speaker 1: Jawan Jennings right now has just been an unreal touchdown

113
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,599
Speaker 1: run for him. He's around plus one to ninety eight

114
00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,960
Speaker 1: touchdowns over the last eight games. I think he's almost

115
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,080
Speaker 1: matchup proof. He's shown the ability that he can get

116
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,680
Speaker 1: open and get targets against both man and zone coverages.

117
00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,240
Speaker 1: He's really evolved into a legit wide receiver one in

118
00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,839
Speaker 1: this offense. Obviously a tougher matchup facing the Seahawks, but

119
00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:57,520
Speaker 1: given his touchdown run and how many times we've given

120
00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,080
Speaker 1: him out on the show, I don't think there's a

121
00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,560
Speaker 1: better choice on the forty nine Ers side at this stage,

122
00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,920
Speaker 1: especially because I'm not certain that George Kittle is back

123
00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 1: to one hundred percent or if he's going to be

124
00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,480
Speaker 1: at one hundred percent by this game. So I think

125
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,279
Speaker 1: Jennings is who we want on the forty nine Ers side.

126
00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a little bit of a risk on

127
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,159
Speaker 1: the Seahawks side though, I'm gonna take Sam Donald around

128
00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,040
Speaker 1: plus nine point fifty. Obviously there's no rushing touchdowns yet

129
00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,000
Speaker 1: this year for him. Kurner, I don't know if I

130
00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,479
Speaker 1: would call him a mall Santa, because I feel like

131
00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,560
Speaker 1: we know that Sam Donald can run. I'd call him

132
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,480
Speaker 1: more like the tin Man, like very stiff but mobile

133
00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,359
Speaker 1: once he gets a little greased up, you know, like

134
00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 1: he could be a matchup too where he could see

135
00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,520
Speaker 1: some more scrambling. Forty nine Ers run defense I think

136
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 1: has started to aggress as the season has gone on,

137
00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:40,719
Speaker 1: with more injuries piling up, Like only twelve rushing touchdowns

138
00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,400
Speaker 1: allowed on the year, but from context, five of those

139
00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,240
Speaker 1: allowed over the last four games, and the forty nine Ers,

140
00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,599
Speaker 1: according to PFF, twenty eighth in defensive run play success

141
00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 1: right in the red zone. So I think with the

142
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,040
Speaker 1: Seahawks theyve been so predictable near the goal line with

143
00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,600
Speaker 1: Charbonnay and Kenneth Walker. I think the misdirection play action

144
00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,359
Speaker 1: rush attempt for Donald is very much on the table,

145
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,559
Speaker 1: especially in a critical game where turnovers could be an issue,

146
00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,800
Speaker 1: and I think Darnold might have that in his head.

147
00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:08,800
Speaker 1: He doesn't want to throw that costly interception near the

148
00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:10,960
Speaker 1: goal line, So I could see him running for a touchdown,

149
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,640
Speaker 1: and I love the odds at plus nine point fifty.

150
00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 1: All right, before we continue, don't forget to sign him

151
00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,680
Speaker 1: for Action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts

152
00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:21,680
Speaker 1: like Sean Kerner Chris Raybond. Grant me for myself our

153
00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,960
Speaker 1: entire Action Network team. Plus you can get access to

154
00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,760
Speaker 1: our pro projections power by Kerner and the predictive analytics team.

155
00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 1: Just go to Actionnetwork dot com slash pro and get

156
00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,520
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off the annual price with the promo code

157
00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:37,840
Speaker 1: POD twenty. Okay, let's now move to the Sunday Slate Grant.

158
00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,120
Speaker 1: You're up first, and we are looking at Saints at Falcons.

159
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:41,680
Speaker 1: What do you got?

160
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, So on the Saints side of things, I mean,

161
00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,600
Speaker 2: the only guy really left around is Jwan Johnson, and

162
00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,480
Speaker 2: so I'm picking him for a touchdown. You can find

163
00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 2: a matter on plus two hundred. Lobby obviously has that

164
00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,760
Speaker 2: blood clot not going to play in the spot here,

165
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,440
Speaker 2: So who else are they going to throw the ball to?

166
00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,200
Speaker 2: Who else is going to provide any of the offense. Like,

167
00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 2: Johnson has been great this season, and the volume has

168
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,120
Speaker 2: been good, heading close to one hundred yards last week.

169
00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 2: He's going to be the go to guy most likely

170
00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,440
Speaker 2: in this offense, at least in the receiving game this week.

171
00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:16,360
Speaker 2: And it's just I mean, it's not like it's a

172
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,920
Speaker 2: great matchup. Atlanta is above average versus the tight end,

173
00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,720
Speaker 2: but it's just a spot where I can't see them

174
00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,640
Speaker 2: really doing too much else in this offense other than

175
00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,800
Speaker 2: throw the ball to Johnson. So I think the volume

176
00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,040
Speaker 2: should be there. The odds are just a bit too high.

177
00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 2: They kind of thought about Taysom Hill, maybe he gets

178
00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,120
Speaker 2: heavily involved here, but I ended up going with Johnson

179
00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,320
Speaker 2: here in this spot, and then on the other side

180
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,880
Speaker 2: Drake London to score touchdown plus one point seventeen. He

181
00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,880
Speaker 2: absolutely crushed my hopes in dreams last week. Just awful

182
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:50,160
Speaker 2: watching him out there and getting absolutely nothing. But prior

183
00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,920
Speaker 2: to that, like, he's gotten just massive volume pretty much

184
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,720
Speaker 2: all season long while he's been healthy. I mean, prior

185
00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 2: to last game, eight targets, nine targets, eight targets, fourteen

186
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,520
Speaker 2: ten sixteen. He has six touchdowns of the season six,

187
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,160
Speaker 2: all six of which came in the last eight games

188
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,040
Speaker 2: he's played. Obviously missed quite a few with that injury,

189
00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,680
Speaker 2: but he's still probably the wide receiver one he is

190
00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:17,200
Speaker 2: I think currently questionable, but they've this is a spot

191
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,040
Speaker 2: where I think that they're going to throw the ball

192
00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 2: to him. I mean, they don't really have anything to

193
00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,880
Speaker 2: play for except for to potentially knock the Bucks out

194
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 2: of the playoffs here. But London at plus one seventy

195
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,240
Speaker 2: just seems a bit too low in the spot. And

196
00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:30,960
Speaker 2: I mean maybe it's just a by low from the

197
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,560
Speaker 2: fact that he hasn't scored in his last three games,

198
00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 2: the fact that he was essentially absent from the last game.

199
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,880
Speaker 2: So plus one seventy, he's pretty solid odds here and

200
00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:40,840
Speaker 2: I'm rolling with it.

201
00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean another week of practice, another week

202
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,440
Speaker 1: of getting healthy, I think that should put Drake London

203
00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 1: in a good spot. The Juwan Johnson one is a

204
00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,960
Speaker 1: fun one too, especially given that who else is really

205
00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,520
Speaker 1: left on the saint side. From a pass catcher standpoint,

206
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,120
Speaker 1: I will say Taysom Hill did catch my eye a

207
00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,560
Speaker 1: little bit, just with that nostalgia factor of thinking that

208
00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,600
Speaker 1: this could potentially be his last game in a Saints uniform,

209
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,840
Speaker 1: but that remains to be seen. I'm not still not

210
00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 1: sure who I'm going to take in that game, but yeah,

211
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,719
Speaker 1: Juwan Johnson, I think is a very solid look here.

212
00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,600
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to the AFC North Brown's at Bengals. Curner,

213
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 1: you're up.

214
00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:12,600
Speaker 3: What do you like?

215
00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 4: Uh?

216
00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, this game's a disaster the markets all over

217
00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:20,800
Speaker 5: the place. But looks like Raheem Sanders is right around

218
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:21,680
Speaker 5: plus two forty.

219
00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:22,280
Speaker 3: I love that.

220
00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:26,120
Speaker 5: So I'm going right back to the well with rocket here.

221
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,120
Speaker 5: And last week, you know, the Browns backfield played out

222
00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:34,240
Speaker 5: about how I expected with Quinchewn Judkins out, Dylan Sampson

223
00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,720
Speaker 5: was sort of, you know, the lead back overall, but

224
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,000
Speaker 5: you know, Sanders was the lead back on early downs.

225
00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,839
Speaker 5: He had fifty one percent of the snaps on early

226
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,800
Speaker 5: downs and short yardage. Yet he took one hundred percent

227
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,920
Speaker 5: of the short yardage snaps, which is what I figured

228
00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,560
Speaker 5: because you know, he's the bigger back. He's six feet

229
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,600
Speaker 5: tall two thirty so he's probably gonna see similar touch

230
00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,160
Speaker 5: on upside as Judkins. Really, so this is a good

231
00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,040
Speaker 5: spot against the Bengals. So getting him at plus two forty.

232
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:04,959
Speaker 5: You kind of have to think of it. You're getting

233
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,240
Speaker 5: Judkins at plus two forty is how I think about it,

234
00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,240
Speaker 5: because he does play that goal line role. And then

235
00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,160
Speaker 5: on the other side, I'm gonna go with another running

236
00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 5: back here, Taj Brooks at eleven to one. He is

237
00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,439
Speaker 5: the Bengals third string back. Hasn't played much this year

238
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,840
Speaker 5: because Chase Brown's been healthy all season long, so that

239
00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,599
Speaker 5: you know, hasn't opened up any work for the backups.

240
00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 5: So Week eighteen could be more of an evaluation week.

241
00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,679
Speaker 5: They already know what they have in, you know, thirty

242
00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,559
Speaker 5: three year old Samaj ap Ryan, however old he is now,

243
00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,319
Speaker 5: so I could see them giving Taj a little bit

244
00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,200
Speaker 5: more work as they start to evaluate for next season.

245
00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,440
Speaker 5: They could also just blow the Browns out. Taj got

246
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,080
Speaker 5: you know, mop up duty last week, so I think

247
00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,840
Speaker 5: Taj once the market opens up for a last touchdown score,

248
00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,480
Speaker 5: That's probably where I would take Taj because if he

249
00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:57,960
Speaker 5: does score a touchdown, it's probably going to be, you know,

250
00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,520
Speaker 5: later in the game, potentially the last score of the game.

251
00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,840
Speaker 5: So I think Taj being the last touchdown score four

252
00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:05,920
Speaker 5: Week eighteen makes a ton of sense.

253
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,679
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that we didn't try to look for a

254
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,000
Speaker 1: long shot tight end or something like that, just given

255
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: where the Bengals defense has been all year. But then

256
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,240
Speaker 1: once you get past your Harold fan and then you realize,

257
00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,680
Speaker 1: like you know, David Njoku probably isn't gonna play either,

258
00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,079
Speaker 1: and then you're like, all right, am I feeling good

259
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,840
Speaker 1: about Blake Whitehart here? And then once you go down

260
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,679
Speaker 1: that rabbit hole, it doesn't feel very good. I'm betting

261
00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,840
Speaker 1: I would say Blake white Heart is the play. He's

262
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,640
Speaker 1: their only healthy tight end right now. Even Brendan Bates

263
00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,120
Speaker 1: is questionable. But the market they're.

264
00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 5: Price in white Heart down to plus seven fifty right now.

265
00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,319
Speaker 5: So if you take that and Fanon suits up, you're

266
00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,400
Speaker 5: gonna look like an idiot. But you know, if fans

267
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,360
Speaker 5: real I don't think Joku's gonna play. He hasn't practiced yet,

268
00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,760
Speaker 5: he hasn't practiced for weeks now. He's a free agent,

269
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,199
Speaker 5: no shot he plays. If Fannin's out and they still

270
00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,400
Speaker 5: have white Heart, you know, over six to one. I

271
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,400
Speaker 5: would take a nibble on that, but yeah, talking him

272
00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,480
Speaker 5: in at plus seven to fifty and fan and might

273
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,280
Speaker 5: still play might sound silly, but yeah, I think I

274
00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:09,160
Speaker 5: think taking Whiteheart if fans out makes makes sense.

275
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,439
Speaker 1: Well, and the taj Brooks bet too, especially if the

276
00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 1: Bengals are ended up blowing them out, that looks even

277
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,840
Speaker 1: better to at around eleven to one. So all right,

278
00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 1: that's Bengals Browns. Let's move to Cowboys Giants. I got

279
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,319
Speaker 1: that game this week. All right, I'm gonna go pretty

280
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,679
Speaker 1: choky in these ones. Kerner, You've kind of laid out

281
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 1: this case the last few weeks of why we like

282
00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,560
Speaker 1: to take George Pickens, and I'm gonna take it because, look,

283
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,840
Speaker 1: I'm not really a contract incentive better for the most part,

284
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,720
Speaker 1: I find a lot of the time you can find

285
00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:36,600
Speaker 1: an edge every once in a while, but most of

286
00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,520
Speaker 1: those incentives are just baked into the odds now. But

287
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,280
Speaker 1: I still think that George Pickens has a little bit

288
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:45,280
Speaker 1: of incentive attached because we know he wants that new

289
00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,480
Speaker 1: contract in the offseason and this is the last game

290
00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,600
Speaker 1: for him to make an impression on both Jerry Jones

291
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,720
Speaker 1: and other front offices to give him that wide receiver

292
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,360
Speaker 1: one money. And when you look at his stats, he

293
00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,600
Speaker 1: has a couple milestones that could lead him to maybe

294
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,840
Speaker 1: even getting a few more targets to get into that

295
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,560
Speaker 1: of elite status. He's eight catches away from one hundred

296
00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,119
Speaker 1: perceptions and he's one touchdown away from ten. Those benchmarks

297
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:07,880
Speaker 1: to me are important because right now, Kerner, when you

298
00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,840
Speaker 1: look at the data for NFL, there's only two wide

299
00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,400
Speaker 1: receivers that have one hundred plus catches and ten touchdowns

300
00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,960
Speaker 1: as Jackson Smith and Jigbit and a Monross ain't Brown

301
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,760
Speaker 1: and Will. When a Monross signed his contract in twenty

302
00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 1: twenty four, he was the highest paid wide receiver in

303
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 1: the NFL. So I'm banking on pickings to play like

304
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,960
Speaker 1: there's literally millions of dollars on the line. So he's

305
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 1: around plus one fifty five. Jackson Dart is the other

306
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:32,680
Speaker 1: one that I like in this game. He's around plus

307
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,160
Speaker 1: one seventy. He's got nine touchdowns this year. He scored

308
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 1: twice last week versus the Raiders. He's actually tied for

309
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:42,200
Speaker 1: second amongst all quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns, tied with

310
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,560
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. But he's done that at only eleven games,

311
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 1: whereas those guys have played the full season. And I

312
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 1: think the Giants have started to kind of take that

313
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,240
Speaker 1: bubble wrap off of him, especially after taking some big hits.

314
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,480
Speaker 1: So I think with this being the finale, playing at home,

315
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:56,480
Speaker 1: this is kind of the spot that you want to

316
00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 1: grab Jackson Dart when you can get it around plus

317
00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,800
Speaker 1: one seventy. So that is Cowboys Giants. Let's now move

318
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,680
Speaker 1: to Colts Texans. Grant what touchdown best do you like

319
00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 1: for Colts Texans?

320
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is obviously an interesting one because now Riley

321
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,560
Speaker 2: Leonard is getting the start who they didn't want to

322
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,000
Speaker 2: play and decide to play Philip Rivers instead for a

323
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,920
Speaker 2: few weeks. Still did look phenomenal, but I mean that

324
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,440
Speaker 2: shows that he might not be the greatest. But still

325
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,400
Speaker 2: you're getting some pretty ridiculous odds on a lot of

326
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 2: these receivers in this offense. I mean almost every single

327
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 2: one of them are plus five hundred or more. So

328
00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:29,920
Speaker 2: I just kind of went with the best one in

329
00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 2: that offense, which is Michael Pittman in my opinion, so

330
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 2: plus five hundred on him. He's only out in a

331
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,600
Speaker 2: few sports books, but the odds are pretty high here. Obviously,

332
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna be surprised if the Colts don't end

333
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 2: up scoring a touchdown, but that's kind of baked into

334
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 2: the odds here plus five hundred for Pittman going up

335
00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 2: against one of the tougher defense in the league, and

336
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 2: there's a chance that Jacksonville's playing at the same time.

337
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,520
Speaker 2: If they got the game in hand, that maybe the

338
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,080
Speaker 2: Texans kind of loosen up a little bit because they

339
00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:58,640
Speaker 2: don't really have too much to play for if they

340
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 2: don't end up getting Jacksonville to lose. So Michael Pittman

341
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 2: at plus five hundreds of who I'm rolling with on

342
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 2: the Colt side of things, and then on the technic

343
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,240
Speaker 2: side of things, Nico Collins plus two twenty. I don't

344
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 2: really see sas Gardner playing in the spot. I mean,

345
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 2: obviously they got nothing to play for. He has been practicing,

346
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,520
Speaker 2: so sauce likely I is definitely a downgrade for that defense.

347
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,280
Speaker 2: They've been beat up pretty heavily in the last few weeks.

348
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously brock Party just absolutely shredded them a

349
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 2: few weeks ago, so they've been beat up in the

350
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 2: passing game. Nico Collins obviously can score from pretty much

351
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:31,960
Speaker 2: anywhere on the field. Plus two twenty on Collins in

352
00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,240
Speaker 2: a normal game is always way too high of a

353
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,560
Speaker 2: line there. I do worry a little bit that maybe again,

354
00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,760
Speaker 2: like I said, if Jacksonville's blowing out Tennessee, maybe Houston

355
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 2: kind of sits some guys a little bit in the

356
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 2: second half. But as of right now, like Nico Collins

357
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 2: even in the first half and maybe three corps of plays,

358
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 2: still not a terrible bet at plus two twenty or

359
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,200
Speaker 2: addam that they're in their dome, Collins can really score

360
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 2: from anywhere. And this this line just a bit too.

361
00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 1: High, I think in theory two though that is baked

362
00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 1: into the odds, right the plus two twenty that there

363
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,959
Speaker 1: is the potential of just fourth quarter not playing very

364
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: much or you know, or even just being a blowout

365
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,199
Speaker 1: Riley Leonard and the Colts just sucking and they end

366
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,960
Speaker 1: up leading by like twenty entering the fourth quarter. But again,

367
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,400
Speaker 1: it's very difficult to pass on a wide receiver one

368
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,480
Speaker 1: when you get it at plus two twenty and very

369
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 1: friendly conditions in a positive matchup as well. So kudos

370
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,919
Speaker 1: to you, Michael Pittman plus five hundred and Nico Collins

371
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,680
Speaker 1: plus two twenty. Those are the bets that Grant likes

372
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:32,320
Speaker 1: for Colts Texans. Now let's move to another AFC South game.

373
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 1: This will be the Titans versus the Jaguars. Kerner, where

374
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 1: are we going for that one?

375
00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, so this game, I'm definitely going shocky here. I'm

376
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 5: gonna go with Tony Pollard on the Titan side at

377
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 5: plus one to eighty. He's a player with a ton

378
00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 5: of incentives and the Titans have nothing to play for.

379
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,120
Speaker 5: I talked about his prop extensively on the Productions Pod

380
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 5: earlier this week. But you know, he needs sixty six

381
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 5: yards for quarter million dollars and two touchdowns for another

382
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:06,360
Speaker 5: quarter million dollars, and you know those the sixty six

383
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 5: yards is pretty close to my medium projection for him.

384
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 5: So I think that's one of those spots where the

385
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 5: Titans will probably go out of their way to kind

386
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 5: of help him get there, you know, give him some

387
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 5: extra touches. And I was saying, it's kind of important

388
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 5: for teams to do this because you want to act

389
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 5: in good faith in these situations, because the Titans specifically

390
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,600
Speaker 5: are trying to attract free agents in the offseason. They

391
00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:31,119
Speaker 5: have a massive budget for next year, so you know,

392
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 5: showing you operate in good faith in these spots and

393
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 5: not act like Sean Payton and you know, act like

394
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 5: a deck and like, prevent these incentives from hitting is huge,

395
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 5: So I think they're going to give him some extra

396
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,439
Speaker 5: touches here. So I'm already projecting him at value here

397
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 5: without even like boosting him or anything. At plus one

398
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 5: eighty plus. You know, if you take him at two touchdowns,

399
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 5: it's eighteen to one. That's actually what he's going for anyway,

400
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,120
Speaker 5: So you know, I would nibble on that a bit,

401
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,159
Speaker 5: so like Pollard here plus one eighty and then the

402
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 5: other side, I'm going to go with Parker Washington at

403
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 5: plus two oh five. You know, I've brought him up

404
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 5: a few times on this show. I just think he's

405
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,639
Speaker 5: playing at a very high level right now. And you know,

406
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 5: throughout the season he's seen his playing time fluctuate because

407
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,120
Speaker 5: you wouldn't expect Parker Washington to be a top two

408
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,880
Speaker 5: receiver for the Jaguars this year, but he's proven himself.

409
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,120
Speaker 3: And you know, he was limited a bit.

410
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 5: After he returned in week fifteen, but last week he

411
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,679
Speaker 5: was back to a full time role. He had a

412
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,239
Speaker 5: ninety five percent routes run rate. Again, he's operating as

413
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 5: a clear top two target. He's been really their top

414
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 5: target the last couple of weeks and Trevor Lawrence is

415
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 5: playing at a high level right now, so love him.

416
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,679
Speaker 5: At plus two of five, I'm projecting this closer to

417
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 5: plus one sixty, so I think we're getting quite a

418
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 5: bit of value here.

419
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, he really broke our heart last week for Nick

420
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 1: Giffin and I because remember if we collabed on him

421
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 1: for the Action Playbook Live Pick and he got the

422
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 1: end zone target that we wanted and it got intercepted,

423
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 1: So that was the one thing that just the drawback,

424
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 1: but the volume was there, so we were feeling pretty

425
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: good about why. And then Tony Pollard nice little ladder

426
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 1: section here where you could get any time around plus

427
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 1: one eighty and then two touchdowns around sixteen to one

428
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 1: to get that incentive. All right, we are going to

429
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: move now to Packers Vikings, So full disclosure, we're recording

430
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 1: this Friday afternoon, and this is still the only game

431
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 1: with no touchdown odds up for anything anywhere. So what

432
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: I'm going to do is I'm going to take both teams, defensive,

433
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,639
Speaker 1: special teams touchdowns. And the reason why is because I

434
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: could probably project this price normally around draft at DraftKings

435
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: for these types of props they're anywhere between plus four

436
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,919
Speaker 1: twenty five plus five hundred depending on the matchup, and

437
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 1: so I'm going to go with that idea that they're

438
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 1: probably going to be around plus four twenty five plus

439
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 1: four fifty. So to make this case, all you got

440
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: to do and immediately is just look at Clayton tunes

441
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 1: career box scores, because he is starting and he's got

442
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 1: three interceptions in twenty seven career dropbacks, two fumbles on

443
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 1: sixteen career carries, and he's going on the road to

444
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 1: a very loud environment and a defense that loves to blitz.

445
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: They could be in their own territory a lot, maybe

446
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 1: get stripsacked and that comes a touchdown. So the Vikings

447
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: pass defense as well has just been a brick wall

448
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 1: for the second half of the season. Their fifth in

449
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 1: defensive dv WAI versus the pass don't give up a

450
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 1: lot of passing touchdowns. So I think Clayton Tune is

451
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,719
Speaker 1: going to struggle and that could lead to a Vikings

452
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 1: defensive special teams touchdown. The Packers as well, though, they're

453
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 1: live for a defensive special teams touchdown, especially if JJ

454
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: McCarthy is going to play, because he's not impervious to turnovers.

455
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,400
Speaker 1: They're not very effective on offense with him at quarterback,

456
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 1: he's still got a hairline fracture in his hand, He's

457
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: thrown an interception in all but one start, and Max

458
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: Brozmer might even make an appearance like this total is

459
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 1: all the way down to thirty five and a half.

460
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,640
Speaker 1: It's the lowest total of the week. So if you're

461
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: betting on touchdowns in this game, make sure to get

462
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: the best value you can. That's why, if anything, I'm

463
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,199
Speaker 1: just going to keep it simple and just go with

464
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,959
Speaker 1: the defensive special teams touchdown on each side. So that

465
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: is Packers Vikings. Let's now move to Chargers Broncos, where

466
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert has been announced that he is going to sit,

467
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 1: or at least Jim Harbaugh announced it. So Grant you're up.

468
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: What are we looking at for touchdown props in this game?

469
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: Knowing that Justin Herbert isn't going to play.

470
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, So on the Chargers side of things, there's not

471
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 2: really many odds out there. We have no idea which

472
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 2: position players are going to even be playing, which defensive

473
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 2: players are going to be playing. Chargers really have no

474
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: reason to risk injury on any of them. But Lance

475
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 2: is going to get the start, and that's what I'm

476
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 2: rolling with because you can find his odds around four

477
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: thirty and Trey Lance, like we haven't seen much of

478
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 2: him in his career, but in the games he does

479
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: end up starting, Dude's running a lot. I mean, going

480
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 2: all the way back when he was on San Francisco

481
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty two. It's only full game he

482
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 2: ran for fifty four yards. First season, he had eighty

483
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: nine yards rushing in the game. He didn't get into

484
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 2: the en zone much, but that's a lot of just variance.

485
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 2: He's probably going to be running the ball, especially if

486
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 2: he doesn't have a ton of guys to throw to. Obviously,

487
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 2: going up against Denver, it's a tough defense who's probably

488
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: going to be forced to scramble because he's going to

489
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 2: be on the run a lot. So all these kind

490
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 2: of look point towards the most likely scenario is Lance

491
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 2: going to be the main guy can get into the

492
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 2: end zone depending on who else is playing. So I'm

493
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,199
Speaker 2: rolling with him at plus four thirty. And then on

494
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 2: the Denver side of things, Denver essentially needs to win,

495
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 2: like they pretty much have to win if they don't,

496
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: then they need Jacksonville to lose, and the Patriots lose,

497
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 2: that's an all likelihood not going to happen. So they

498
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 2: want to win this game here, so they're going to

499
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 2: be full throttle pretty much until the game's fully in hand.

500
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 2: And Sutton is the guy who's been getting just a

501
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 2: ton of volume recently. Ten targets in each of the

502
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,679
Speaker 2: last four games, three touchdowns in last five games, and

503
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 2: should have had one last week two. So the volume

504
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 2: is fantastic, and we're getting his odds plus two hundred

505
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 2: here just seems far too high for a guy getting

506
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 2: that much volume in recent weeks, going up against a

507
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 2: team that may not be playing a lot of their

508
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: starters on a team that needs to win in the

509
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 2: spot to get that first round by seven plus two

510
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 2: hundreds in that pick over there, and Lance plus four

511
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: to thirty on the other side.

512
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, over the last four games, Grant, I'll concede with

513
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 1: you right now, Courtland Sutton has just been on a

514
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: tear from a target standpoint forty one targets over the

515
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: last four games. There's only five players ahead of him

516
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 1: in that span, and that's JSN, Trey McBride, Jamar Chase, Puka, Nakua,

517
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: a Monross, Saint Brown. So tell me the next time

518
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 1: that you can get any four of those guys at

519
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: two to one to score a touchdown and we'll bet them,

520
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: because that's the kind of volume that you want for somebody,

521
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: especially with a guy like Sutton who is a legit

522
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: wide receiver one in this offense. So good, fine by you.

523
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to Chiefs Raiders. Kerner, you're up, man,

524
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 1: Honestly with this game, I'm still kind of trying to

525
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: decide to where I want to go with this one.

526
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see where you went for your touchdown

527
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: props for Chiefs Raiders.

528
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, on the Chief side, I'm going to go with

529
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 5: Hollywood Brown at plus three seventy. He has some major

530
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 5: incentives at play here. He needs one more touchdown for

531
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 5: seven one hundred and fifty thousand dollars and two touchdowns

532
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 5: for a million more. The problem is he has Chris

533
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 5: Olidocin trying to throw him the ball. So, I mean,

534
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 5: I don't love this play here, but I'm already factoring

535
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 5: that in. You know the fact that they're gonna have

536
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 5: you know, old duck and under center. Plus it you know,

537
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 5: it's also likely this is Travis Kelsey's last game. They

538
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 5: could force feed him in the red zone as well.

539
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 5: But you know, they are facing a Raiders team that's

540
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 5: literally trying to lose in order to lock up the

541
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 5: number one pick. Their team totals you know, twenty one points,

542
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 5: which is healthy enough, you know, to score you know,

543
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 5: probably two touchdowns here. So I'm projecting him plus you know,

544
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 5: three forty as fair odds, and that's not even factoring

545
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 5: in him, you know, going up to Olid Dokin in

546
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 5: the game and say, remember, you know, I get like

547
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 5: a million dollars if I score a touchdown, I'll kick

548
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 5: you, you know, fifty.

549
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 3: K or whatever. I mean, that kind of stuff probably happens.

550
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 5: So I like Brown here at plus three seventy, I'm

551
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 5: assuming this will get bet down as we see more

552
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 5: and more tweets about incentives come out over the next

553
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 5: couple of days. And then on the other side, gonna

554
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 5: go with my guy Michael Mayer here at plus three seventy.

555
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 5: I always mention on the show that whenever Bowers is out,

556
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 5: I'm going to be taking Michael Mayor, who's one of

557
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 5: the best backup tight ends in the league.

558
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 3: You know, it's unfortunate that.

559
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 5: The Raiders had Bower's fault to them because they already

560
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 5: had a first round talent in Mayor. He only went

561
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 5: you know, in the second round a few years ago

562
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 5: in the draft because some of the teams just didn't

563
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 5: prioritize tight end. But he was certainly a first round talent.

564
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 5: So anytime he gets a spot start for Bowers, he's

565
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 5: in play. And last week I was joking with Raybond

566
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 5: on the Productions Pod that he might get punished last

567
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 5: week for you know, going for nine catches eighty nine yards.

568
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 5: Again they're trying to lose, but he's too good to

569
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 5: bottle up. So I like him here at plus three seventy.

570
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,719
Speaker 5: And as always, like whenever Bowers is out, I'm usually

571
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 5: looking to invest in Mayor.

572
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, plus three seventy is a great price for Mayor,

573
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 1: and even Marki's brown like the incentives. You know, it

574
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: could it could happen pretty early. And I was looking

575
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 1: at the touchdown odds again just with Travis Kelce, because

576
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: I think they're like, you know, plus two sixty plus

577
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: two seventy, but you're banking on him being foresped, not

578
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: necessarily that he has the talent the score because I

579
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: don't know if anybody's been watching cheaps games over the

580
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 1: last month, but he has looked very slow and very

581
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: old in my opinion. So Travis Kelcey though, if you

582
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: want to bet him, he's around plus two sixty. But

583
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: we like Hollywood Brown plus three seventy with that seven

584
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand dollars incentive for a touchdown. All right,

585
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: Jets Bills is on my plate here. Now. Initially I

586
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 1: was looking at Josh Allen thinking that maybe he was

587
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: going to go into full Josh Allen mode and try

588
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: to get move up in the seating for AFC. But

589
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 1: he hasn't practiced this week, guys, and Sean McDermott has

590
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 1: kind of hinted that, you know, he's dealing with a

591
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: bit of a foot injury, so he might not end

592
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 1: up playing. So he might end up doing what he

593
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: didlast year in Week eighteen, where he played one snap,

594
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: left the game and then Mitch Trubisky comes in and

595
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: plays the rest so he can get that Ironman Street going.

596
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: So I think a lot of the Bills, especially starters

597
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 1: like Dalton Kink Dawson Knox, you know Khalil Shakir, I

598
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: don't think they're going to play that much if that's

599
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: the case, with Josh Allen not playing as well. So

600
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: I think we look at Jackson Hawes. He's around plus

601
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 1: four to fifty three touchdowns this year, playing the most

602
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: snaps for any Bills tight end over the last like

603
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 1: three games, and I fully expect to get the Bills

604
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: to hold out a lot of players in this one,

605
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: and I think he could have a huge role in

606
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: Week eighteen if Kinkaid and Knocks are inactive and facing

607
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: the Jets. They've been awful defending tight ends this year,

608
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: thirtieth the defensive dv AWA nine touchdowns allowed. You could

609
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: even look at a long shot Herner even Khaliki Latu

610
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: around twenty to one for a Bills long shot, but

611
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Jackson Hawes at plus four to

612
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: fifty and on the Jets side, this is literally the

613
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: only lone bright spot on the Jets this year. Eighty

614
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,479
Speaker 1: Mitchell at plus three fifty, I know we saw has

615
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: been looking good, could get close to one thousand yards,

616
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: but I think Ady Mitchell right now is the guy

617
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: you want, especially because Brady Cook is going to be

618
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 1: playing a quarterback and it hasn't been great. The only

619
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,479
Speaker 1: touchdown pass that he has this year is to Ady Mitchell,

620
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: and Mitchell leads the Jets with three end zone targets

621
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 1: in the four games that Brady Cook has played. He

622
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: also leads the Jets and targets for roat, run and

623
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: deep targets since he's come to the team. So if

624
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: there's any Jets wide receiver that can somehow maybe get loose,

625
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: maybe some broken coverage, I think it's Ady Mitchell. He's

626
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 1: around plus three to twenty five. So those are my

627
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: two bets for Bill's Jets. All right, next game, we

628
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: are looking at the commanders at the Eagles right now,

629
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: looking like Jalen Hurts may not play in this game.

630
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 1: Josh Johnson is probably going to play on the commander's side.

631
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: So Grant, where do we go for touchdown props in

632
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 1: this game?

633
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, Philly really doesn't have anything to play for.

634
00:29:54,640 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think they can increase their spot

635
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 2: unless the Bears lose. So I mean they're still probably

636
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: going to try and get the two seed, but who knows.

637
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 2: I think that Tank Bixby is probably going to be

638
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 2: in for a decent workload, So I'm just rolling with

639
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: him at plus one forty five. It's just a bit

640
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: too high of odds. I saw the Action projections had

641
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 2: him as one of the top values here, so that's

642
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 2: just what I'm kind of rolling on that side, since

643
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 2: there's so many unknowns at the moment. And then over

644
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: on the Washington side of things, I mean, we got

645
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: a thirty nine year old Josh Johnson on his twenty

646
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 2: seven different team in his career playing and last week

647
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 2: when he played, he was targeting scary Terry a decent amount.

648
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: You can get his odds around plus three ten, plus

649
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: three twenty, depending on where you look, and that's just

650
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 2: a bit too high. I mean, he's obviously a very

651
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 2: town receiver. We may see several guys on the defensive

652
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: end of the Eagles not playing in this spot, so

653
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 2: the matchup should be a bit easier here. Odds are

654
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 2: good and that's what I'm rolling with there.

655
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: All right, Terry mccorm plus three ten, you can get

656
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: a wide receiver one against that Eagles defense, and I

657
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,479
Speaker 1: think there's maybe even a good chance maybe even Quinhoon

658
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: Mitchell for example, may not play, which would give him

659
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: a little bit better matchup for Terry as well in

660
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: Tank Bixby when he's getting playing time. It's a pretty

661
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: good spot h him facing the Commanders. All right, let's

662
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: now move to Lions at the Bears, Kerner, I have

663
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 1: a feeling you're going to go with two of your

664
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: favorites in this one.

665
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 2: Who do you like?

666
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is like my favorite rookies bowl here, So

667
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 5: for the Lions side, everybody should know that I'm going

668
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 5: with Isaac Dislaw here.

669
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 3: Looks like he's plus two fifty, which might be.

670
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 5: The lowest it's been all year, other than that game

671
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 5: where we thought a mon rob was going to be

672
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 5: out and then he played through it. But you know, Jill,

673
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 5: you know he was one of my favorite rookies heading

674
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 5: into the season. A lot of that was just due.

675
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 5: I thought he would be overlooked as being a you know,

676
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 5: a third round pick and essentially being the number five

677
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 5: target as a rookie. I think a lot of people

678
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 5: misunderstood my teslaw love like I'm well aware he was

679
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 5: the number five target. That's why I said he's probably

680
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 5: the best number five target in the league. I never

681
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 5: thought he would get targets over Jamiir Gibbs, amnra Jamo,

682
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 5: Sam Laporta. So when people point out, you know, he

683
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 5: has six touchdowns on just twenty six targets on the season,

684
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 5: that essentially proves my point in the end.

685
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 3: And this this is a meaningless game.

686
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 5: You know, Sam Laporter remains on IR, a' monra is

687
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 5: dealing with me and ankle injuries. So I think Teslaw

688
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 5: could see you know, a ton of playing time this week,

689
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 5: probably move him up, you know, the target pecking order.

690
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 5: And the thing is like, he has six touchdowns on

691
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 5: the season despite you know, a few targets. Some of

692
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 5: his non touchdown catches have been highlight reel plays as well,

693
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 5: so anytime he's drawn a target, good things have happened.

694
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,959
Speaker 5: So I think, you know, the final week, they'll probably

695
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 5: want to feed him a couple more targets and you know,

696
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 5: start planning for next year. So love Teslaw here at

697
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 5: plus two point fifty. And on the other side, probably

698
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 5: my like the favorite rookie from this year's class for

699
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 5: me is Luther Burden all the way down to plus

700
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 5: one thirty. So I think the cat's kind of out

701
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 5: of the bag on him. I kind of said, you know,

702
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 5: last Sunday night. You know, this game's gonna be on

703
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 5: national TV if he goes off here, which you know,

704
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 5: I had his overs and everything. You know, I think

705
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 5: the cat's gonna be out of the bag, which it has.

706
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 5: But I think we're still getting some value here, you know,

707
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 5: plus one thirty. It sounds like he's fully healthy. You know,

708
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 5: he he got an injury at the end of the

709
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 5: game last week. Seems to be fine. Romo doonsay does

710
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 5: look you know, closer to doubtful. So I think Burden's

711
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 5: going to be the guy again here this this week.

712
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 5: So he's still you know, on the up up trend.

713
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 5: I think he's gonna be like an Aman raw JSN

714
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 5: type in the next one to two seasons. So, you know,

715
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 5: getting him at plus one thirty, I still like it here.

716
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: Well, we had to come a long way to get

717
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: to these odds, right, Like if you go back to

718
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: week one when you would make fun of me because

719
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: I didn't know who Isaac Deslaw was. He was sixteen

720
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: to one to score a touchdown in that game against

721
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: the Packers. Like, we had to have a lot of

722
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: things happen, like Xam Laporta, you know, yeah, losses play

723
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: all that stuff. Same thing with Luther Burdon. He was

724
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: probably around like eight to one in week one to score,

725
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: and then by the time we get to hear now

726
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: he's looking like arguably maybe the best wide receiver on

727
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 1: the team at this point. So very interesting developments here,

728
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: but again two rookies that it's maybe not too late

729
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 1: to get behind in Lions at Bears. All right, now

730
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: moving to Cardinals at Rams. I've been pretty vocal about

731
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: this guy on the show pretty much since Jacoby Brissett

732
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: took over at quarterback. I'm taking Trey McBride again at

733
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 1: plus one sixty. It's just too good of odds to

734
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: ignore from me. And I know he didn't score when

735
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: they played each other in Week fourteen, he still saw

736
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,760
Speaker 1: nine targets, two in the end zone. It's been pretty

737
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 1: obvious that this is just a trend that you have

738
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 1: to keep kind of backing where Brissett is just gonna

739
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: spam McBride near the goal line with tar and the

740
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 1: Rams are also expected to play their starters. I don't

741
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: know if it'll be the full game, but I don't

742
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: think this is just going to be a Cardinals blowout

743
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 1: against a backup quarterback, you know what I mean for

744
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 1: the Rams. So I think there's going to be some

745
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 1: back and forth, so that'll lead to a little bit

746
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: more scoring on the Cardinals side. And if that is

747
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: the case for the Rams, I'm going to take Terrence

748
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: fergus again around plus four fifty. And look, I've been

749
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: pretty I don't want to say anti Colby Parkinson. I

750
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,760
Speaker 1: just was like, Okay, this isn't sustainable. At some point

751
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: the ball is going to have to go around here.

752
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 1: But he's around plus two to fifty to score in

753
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: this game. So if you want to take him, that's okay.

754
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 1: But I just think Terrence Ferguson offers a little bit

755
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 1: better value in this matchup. He scored in each of

756
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: the last two games. With Davonte Adams out, He's seeing

757
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: a ton of downfield targets, three of his four targets

758
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: last week for twenty plus yards or more. And the

759
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,479
Speaker 1: Cardinals are thirty first in defensive DVA versus tight ends.

760
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 1: So you can make a case for both Colby or

761
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: Terrence Ferguson, or even Davis Allen if you wanted to.

762
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: But I think of the three, if I'm going to

763
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: play the tight end, Roulette in this game. I think

764
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: Terrence Ferguson at plus four fifty is the guy we want.

765
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 1: All right, Grant, let's wrap up Week eighteen and then

766
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: we'll do our favorite touchdown parlay and talk about Sunday

767
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 1: night football as well. So this is the Sunday four

768
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 1: pm slate. You are wrapping it up here with the

769
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: Dolphins at the Patriots. Who do you like?

770
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, not going to be a fun game. I mean,

771
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 2: Patriots obviously still want to get that win for the

772
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 2: potential chance of the one seed, but I mean their

773
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 2: odds are kind of nuked everywhere because they're eleven and

774
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 2: a half point favorite. So I'm rolling with one of

775
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 2: the running backs and that is Traveon Henderson at plus

776
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: one twenty five. And it's just I was kind of

777
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 2: in between him and Stevenson. Ended up going with Henderson.

778
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: I know the matchup is tough versus the Dolphins run Devens.

779
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 2: It's been much better in the second half of the season.

780
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 2: But he can obviously break one off. He should get

781
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 2: decent volume. They're big favorites here, so probably running later

782
00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: in the game. It's always tough trying to figure out

783
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: between Stephen Henderson but I'm rolling with Henderson here and

784
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 2: then on the Miami side of things, Wattle is currently questionable,

785
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 2: but if he plays plus three thirty just kind of

786
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: seems silly. I mean, New England's been bad versus wide

787
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 2: receiver ones this year, I think, nearly bottom of the league.

788
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 2: Wattle is obviously a very talented wide receiver. They're going

789
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 2: to probably be passing a lot because they're big dogs

790
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 2: in the spot, so getting him at plus three thirty

791
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 2: is just ridiculous if he doesn't end up playing. And

792
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 2: I mean h Chan currently is questionable at the moment.

793
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: Waller just got put on IR so he's not playing

794
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 2: this week, and a lot of their weapons are not

795
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:37,919
Speaker 2: in there, so they're probably going to have to rely

796
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 2: on Waddle evenmore, Ahchan doesn't play. If wall doesn't into playing,

797
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 2: a Chan doesn't end up playing, I think you can

798
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: look at Ali Gordon who's currently at plus four hundred,

799
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: but who knows what they ought to be there. But

800
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 2: as of right now, that Wattle plus three thirty is

801
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 2: just screaming at me. So that's what I'm rolling in.

802
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 1: Well, Waddle to me, and again, anybody can bet on Wattle,

803
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: I will never tell them not to bet on Waddle.

804
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 1: I'm just more anti Wattle. Better I'll bring you some context.

805
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 1: So last week I was talking to Kerner about Jalen

806
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 1: Wattle and how much I liked him to score in

807
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: that matchup, and I said, my biggest issue is, though,

808
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 1: is I find a lot of the time he's a

809
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: bit made of glass. A lot of the time, if

810
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: he takes one hit, it's like he won't you don't

811
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 1: see him for the rest of the game. Well, he

812
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: didn take that big hit and I thought there was

813
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 1: that maybe a void or something like that. Well he

814
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 1: ends up playing a little bit in the fourth quarter,

815
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 1: just playing like insignificant snaps. And I know he ended

816
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: up playing through the injury. But man, that's the been

817
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 1: always the hang up for me with Jalen Wattle whenever

818
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 1: I bet him, so I wish you nothing but luck

819
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 1: Grant because he has burned me just too many times

820
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: over the years. But Travion Henderson, I love that pick too,

821
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 1: A plus one twenty five. I love both of the picks.

822
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: It's just man, Wattle drives me crazy sometimes. All right,

823
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 1: before we get into the Sunday and Ach game, it's

824
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: time for our favorite anytime Touchdown Parlay presented by DraftKings.

825
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 1: We're gonna pick our favorite player to find the end zone,

826
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 1: and we can use both the Saturday and Sunday slate

827
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: and we're going to parlay those to get Kerner. You

828
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: were up first, who would you like to put on

829
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 1: the anytime touchdown Parlay?

830
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 5: Let's go with Tank Bigsby here at plus one twenty.

831
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 5: This was one of the top touchdown edges in the

832
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 5: prop tool. But you know, his odds have been plummeting,

833
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 5: but I'm gonna stick with him here. I think this

834
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 5: is a solid pick because he should be the lead

835
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 5: back with you know, Philly expected to wrest their starters,

836
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 5: so I think Tank should see a ton of work here.

837
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 5: You know, the Eagles traded for him earlier in the season,

838
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 5: but he hasn't played much. But he's been solid in

839
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,280
Speaker 5: limited action this season. On forty two carries, he's averaging

840
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 5: five yards after contact, which would lead all qualified running

841
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 5: backs on the season. Plus, you know, I think Tanner

842
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 5: McKee's pretty solid. I think he could drive even the

843
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 5: backups down the field multiple times against this commander's defense

844
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 5: and set up you know, someone like Bigsby for a touchdown.

845
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 5: And I doubt that they're going to have McKey running

846
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 5: the Tushbush play, so I think, you know, Tank's gonna

847
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 5: probably get some of the traditional short yards work that

848
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:03,439
Speaker 5: Sekuon Barkley doesn't really get. So I like getting Tank

849
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 5: here at plus one twenty.

850
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 1: All right, Tank Bigsby is the first leg. I'm gonna

851
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: be pretty consistent with my love for Juwan Jennings. He's

852
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 1: going to be on the parlay. He's just been scoring

853
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 1: too many touchdowns to ignore, eight touchdowns over the last

854
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: eight games. I know it's a tough matchup against the Seahawks,

855
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 1: but I love him in this matchup, So grant take

856
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:25,800
Speaker 1: us home. Who are you betting for the touchdown parlay

857
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 1: for Week eighteen?

858
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, last one going with the guy that Sean liked,

859
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 2: Parker Washington plus two to five. I mean, the volume

860
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 2: has just been phenomenal. He's been good. Obviously, Jags need

861
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 2: to win here in order to keep the division and

862
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 2: potentially get the one seed in a long shot. But Washington,

863
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: he's just been too good recently. And one hundred and

864
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 2: fifteen hundred and forty five yards of receiving the last

865
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 2: two games ten targets and each had a TD and

866
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:51,919
Speaker 2: one probably should have had a TV in the other

867
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 2: one and three touchdowns in the last seven games. So

868
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 2: he's just been too good recently. Just the volume has

869
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 2: been fantastic. So plus two of five Harker Washington, That's

870
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: what I'm rolling with.

871
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: All right, So tank bigsby Juwan Jennings, Parker Washington. You

872
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,240
Speaker 1: parlay all three of those and you get around eighteen

873
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: to one, So, I mean, would be perfect for a

874
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 1: one to eighty challenge if you're doing that to wrap

875
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 1: up the year. So that was our favorite anytime touchdown

876
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: parlay presented by DraftKings. Now let's get into Sunday Night football.

877
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 1: Let's talk about this AFC North battle between the Ravens

878
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: at Steelers. Pretty low total. It's an AFC North total

879
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 1: guys forty and a half. Ravens are road favorites at

880
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: three and a half. So we're going to do a

881
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 1: parlay for this one. Kerner, if you had to do

882
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 1: a parlay for this one, what what touchdown leg would

883
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: you want to do for the first leg.

884
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Pat Farremouth here at plus

885
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 5: three ten. Darnel Washington's been placed on the IR You

886
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,840
Speaker 5: know he broke his arm, and when he left the

887
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 5: game early last week, Moove had a huge boost in

888
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 5: playing time. He saw a seventy seven percent routes run rate,

889
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 5: So I'm expecting, you know, massive boos and playing time

890
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 5: for him here. Plus, you know DK metcalf is serving

891
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 5: the second game of his suspension, so I think his

892
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 5: target chair is also gonna get a boost too because

893
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,800
Speaker 5: he's essentially, you know, a wide receiver in this offense.

894
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 5: And you know Calvin Austin is even questionable as well,

895
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 5: so I think they're gonna have to lean on Move

896
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 5: a ton here, especially in the red zone. So like

897
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:20,280
Speaker 5: getting him here at plus three ten.

898
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Isaiah Likely. He's around four to one.

899
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 1: If people recall that game against the Steelers, he could

900
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: have had two touchdowns in that game. He did end

901
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: up scoring one, But in these kind of matchups, I

902
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 1: want more of the backup tight end who is a

903
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 1: big target in the end zone. So I think Isaiah

904
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 1: likely at four to one. I love that pix. So

905
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 1: we're gonna pair Pat Fryer Moose with Isaiah Likely. Grant

906
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: take us home. What touchdown bet do you want to

907
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: do for Sunday Night Football.

908
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: I'm going with a backup running back, Keaton Mitchell. You

909
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 2: can get him at plus six fifty, which seems a

910
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 2: little bit. I know he's not playing a ton of

911
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 2: snaps every single week, but he's still getting plenty of opportunities.

912
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 2: Last week, nine carries two targets. Week before nine carries,

913
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 2: week before eight carries one target. And he can do

914
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 2: a little bit in the receiving game. He can break

915
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 2: off a big run at a given time. Last time

916
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 2: he played Pittsburgh, six rushes for seventy six yards, broke

917
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 2: off a fifty five yard er, didn't score, but I

918
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 2: only scored once this season. But the odds are just

919
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 2: too high for a guy getting this type of workload.

920
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 2: I know everyone wants to go with Derrick Henry, and

921
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry was in December. I guess it's now January,

922
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 2: but still same concept. He's probably still going to get

923
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 2: a decent workload here. But Mitchell is getting more than

924
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 2: enough work to justify a plus six point fifty touchdown number.

925
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 2: So I'm rolling with it.

926
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'm not sure how healthy Lamar is from

927
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 1: a scrambling standpoint either, So I don't think that you're

928
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 1: going to see any Lamar vultures, whether it be from

929
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 1: Dereck Henry or Keaton Mitchell near the goal line. So

930
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: when you parlay Pat Fryarmuth, Isaiah Likely and Keaton Mitchell,

931
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:58,760
Speaker 1: I'm seeing it right now at DraftKings, guys, one hundred

932
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 1: and forty to one for this parlay. I love this parlay,

933
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 1: especially because of given the exceeded roles. I know Keaton

934
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: Mitchell is probably going to be the harder one to hit,

935
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:09,919
Speaker 1: but there's a reason why it's one hundred and forty

936
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 1: to one. Very good value here, So good job by you, guys,

937
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 1: and we're going to add our anytime touchdown parlays to

938
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 1: the Parlay Express account in the Action App, So go

939
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: follow up Parlay Express.

940
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 3: If you haven't yet.

941
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 1: And while you're looking at Parlay Express in the Action app,

942
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 1: make sure to sign up for Action Pro. It's the

943
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 1: only way you get the best bets and best prices

944
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 1: with immediate notifications when our action experts post their picks.

945
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 1: And you can also find all quick siplinks for these

946
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 1: bets that we gave out today in the podcast description,

947
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: or you can visit actionetwork dot com slash bet now

948
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: So that'll do it for the NFL Week eighteen Touchdown

949
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 1: Show presented by DraftKings. My thanks to Sean Kerner and

950
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 1: Grant need For for joining me today. And if you

951
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,240
Speaker 1: haven't yet, check out our new quick slip bot called

952
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 1: Playbook and just tell it to grab whatever bets you're

953
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 1: looking for. It'll create a quick siplink for you in

954
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: a matter of seconds. It's at Playbook on X and Twitter,

955
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 1: and make sure to subscribe to the Action Network podcast

956
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 1: so you don't miss anything this season. We got a

957
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 1: bunch still coming up, a bunch of podcasts and shows

958
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 1: coming up for the NFL playoffs. You can find Sean

959
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: on X, the at the Underscore Oddsmaker, myself at g

960
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: Dog five thousand, and Grant at g Neefer and you

961
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: can find us on the same handles on the free

962
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:22,399
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network apps. So until next time, Bone

963
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: shouts and as my man Raybaum will say, let's get

964
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 1: this sh money.