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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined by my tag team partner Bau mcbrear. One more

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Speaker 1: week before the FedEx Cup playoffs and today we'll be

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Speaker 1: giving you a betting preview for the PGA Tours regular

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Speaker 1: season finale, the Windham Championship.

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Speaker 2: The first a quick recap of the three m open.

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Speaker 1: Bo mcbrear favorite Kurt kitty Yama gets a big win

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Speaker 1: in Minnesota. Kittiyama is pretty far down the leaderboard after

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Speaker 1: two rounds, sitting at six under par when the cut

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Speaker 1: line was five under par. But then Kitty Yama went

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Speaker 1: nuclear on the weekend. He carted twelve birdies on Saturday

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Speaker 1: and route to a round of sixty. Kitty Yama could

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Speaker 1: at a fifty nine if not for a bogie in

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Speaker 1: the par three seventeenth That put Kittyama into a tie

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Speaker 1: for the lead going into the final round, and he

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Speaker 1: kept the momentum going. Kittiyama birdied six of his first

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Speaker 1: eight holes on Sunday to build a sizeable lead. Jake

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Speaker 1: Knapp and Sam Stevens actually had a chance to tie

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Speaker 1: Kitti Yama if they could have birdied the par five

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Speaker 1: eighteenth hole, but Stevens got a bad lie after just

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Speaker 1: missing the fairway, had to scramble just to get his par,

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Speaker 1: and Nap dumped his second shot into the pond in

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Speaker 1: front of the green, eventually making bogie. Kitty Yama made

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Speaker 1: things a little uncomfortable with the boge on seventeen, and

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Speaker 1: then his second shot on eighteen landed in a greenside

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Speaker 1: bunker and gave him sort of an awkward lie on

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Speaker 1: a down slope, and Kitty Yama answered with a nice

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Speaker 1: bunker shot that set up an easy two pot par

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Speaker 1: for the win and a big win it was. It

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Speaker 1: vaulted Kitty Yama into fifty third place in the FedEx

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Speaker 1: Cup standings, with the top seventy qualifying for the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: which begin next week. Sam Stevens finished solo second at

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Speaker 1: the three M Open, one shot behind the winner Jake Knapp,

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Speaker 1: Matt Wallace, David Lipski, and Pearson Coody finished tied for third,

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Speaker 1: three shots back bo The NorCal Guy came through your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on your thoughts on Kurt Kittiyama's big win at

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Speaker 1: the three M Open.

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Speaker 3: What a great story, by the way, even if you're

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Speaker 3: not a NorCal fanatic with Chico t is like me.

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Speaker 3: It was a really good win for Kurt Kittiama. It

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Speaker 3: was exciting because he hadn't won since the twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: two Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's been struggling with his putting, especially,

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Speaker 3: and he's kind of been making the transition this season

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Speaker 3: from more of a grinded out type into a guy

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Speaker 3: who can go low at these types of tournaments where

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Speaker 3: birdies are at a premium enter. His older brother, Daniel Kittiyama,

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Speaker 3: who I competed against back in high school days eons ago,

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Speaker 3: and I ran into both of them. He was obviously

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Speaker 3: on the bag at the Barracuda a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: and I got to chat it up with him and

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Speaker 3: reminisce about the Northern Athletic League days back in those

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Speaker 3: back in five six or four oh five, and they

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Speaker 3: got a good laugh out of that, and apparently it's

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Speaker 3: it's working. They've always been really close as brothers, and

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Speaker 3: it's it's just really cool to see those two guys

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Speaker 3: really feed off each other. The energy that Daniel gives Kurt,

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Speaker 3: and then of course Kurt knows his game pretty well.

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Speaker 3: But I think Daniel knows Kurt's game really well too,

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Speaker 3: because it was a really good performance, starting on Saturday

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Speaker 3: when he barely made the cut because he couldn't make

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Speaker 3: any birdies on Friday, and turning that into a court

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Speaker 3: tide course record sixty eleven under par on Saturday to

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Speaker 3: seize the lead and then to come out hot on

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Speaker 3: Sunday and finish the job. I couldn't be proud of

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Speaker 3: my guy from Chico and his brother who's going to

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Speaker 3: be on the bag the rest of the season, which

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Speaker 3: has obviously been extended to at least the first round

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Speaker 3: of the playoffs. He'll also be in the field this

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Speaker 3: week at the window. So shout out to both of

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Speaker 3: the Kittyama brothers, and shout out to the Kittiyama family

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Speaker 3: because that is a golf family. They always have been

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Speaker 3: and there it's just a really exciting time for the

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Speaker 3: Northern California golf fans who have been following him his

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Speaker 3: entire career.

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Speaker 1: Very cool story, indeed, and six under after two rounds.

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Speaker 1: You would have thought that was too far back at

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Speaker 1: a birdie fest like this, but you texted me on

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Speaker 1: Saturday and said the Kidiyama was on watch man If

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Speaker 1: if not for seventeen, which kind of vexed him on

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Speaker 1: both of the weekend days, he would.

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Speaker 2: Have had it.

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Speaker 3: But still a team is playing tough. It was It

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Speaker 3: was cool though, because I did get a plus eight

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Speaker 3: fifty on him after his round Saturday, before the leader

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Speaker 3: for the guys who played in front of him had finished.

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Speaker 3: I got plus eight fifties. So even though I didn't

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Speaker 3: bet along with a lot of people who got him

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Speaker 3: at forty to one earlier in the week, I'll take

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Speaker 3: I'll take a w and a victory lap for knowing

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Speaker 3: the guy.

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Speaker 2: Very nice. Now it's onto the Windom Championship.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to the betting preview in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: but first a quick word about the Betting Pros app.

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Speaker 1: Since the Windom Championship is the final event before the

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Speaker 1: FedEx Cup playoffs, a lot of the big guns are

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Speaker 1: taking one last week off before the home stretch. No

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Speaker 1: Scotty or Rory this week, No Xander, no Ludwig. But

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Speaker 1: we do have a pretty deep field with the PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour's middle class training to either solidify their spot in

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Speaker 1: the top seventy for the playoffs or trying to work

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Speaker 1: their way in. The Windom Championship will be hosted by

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Speaker 1: Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North North Carolina. Designed by

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Speaker 1: Donald Ross, Sedgefield is a par seventy measuring seven and

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Speaker 1: thirty one yards. It's a short course. They're only two

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Speaker 1: par fives and they'll both be two shotters, measuring less

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Speaker 1: than five hundred and fifty yards. Two of the part

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Speaker 1: threes are about one hundred and seventy five yards, and

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Speaker 1: eight of the twelve par fours at Sedgefield range from

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Speaker 1: four hundred and five four forty two yards, so one

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Speaker 1: of the other power fours is only three hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy four yards. Players are going to be leaving the

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Speaker 1: driver in the bag.

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Speaker 2: This week.

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Speaker 1: You'll see a lot of players hitting three woods or

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Speaker 1: hybrids off the tee and still hitting wedges into these greens.

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Speaker 1: Driving accuracy far more important than driving distance this week.

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Speaker 1: There's a heavy incentive to hit fairways because Sedgefield has

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Speaker 1: Bermuda rough, and that rough gets real chewy with all

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Speaker 1: the heat and humidity in North Carolina this time of year.

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Speaker 1: There's also incentive to line your t shots and spots

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Speaker 1: that give you an optimal angle of attack into these greens.

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Speaker 1: Putting is going to be really important this week. Sedgefield

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Speaker 1: has Bermuda greens and they are tricky, heavily undulated greens.

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Speaker 1: I think we want to look for players who have

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Speaker 1: shown an aptitude for putting on Bermuda.

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rise the defending champ.

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Speaker 1: He was eighteen under power last year, two shots better

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Speaker 1: than Max Grazerman. Lucas Glover finished twenty under part to

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Speaker 1: win the wind him in twenty twenty three. Tom Kim

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Speaker 1: won in twenty with the score of minus twenty and

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Speaker 1: Kevin Kisner won in twenty twenty one, finishing fifteen under

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Speaker 1: par and winning a.

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Speaker 2: Wild six man playoff.

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Speaker 1: Believe it or not, it shouldn't be oppressively hot in

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Speaker 1: North Carolina this week. High temperatures will reach the upper

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Speaker 1: eighties on Thursday, but after that it's all low eighties

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Speaker 1: and upper seventies. Wind should be like to moderate and

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Speaker 1: their scattered thunderstorm chances the first two days bowl.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of Sedgefield Country Club.

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Speaker 3: Just the more challenging version of last week's golf course

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Speaker 3: TPC Twin Cities. Obviously, the rough was up last week,

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Speaker 3: but the fairways were a lot wider and the course

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Speaker 3: had a little bit more distance. This course is tighter,

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Speaker 3: the rough is even more penal. It's still going to

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Speaker 3: be a birdie making type of paradise, especially with the

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Speaker 3: weather not really being overly hot, which hot and human

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Speaker 3: in North Carolina's got to be really tough to grind

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Speaker 3: through four rounds of golf. One round might be okay,

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Speaker 3: but four rounds in a row in the humidity would

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Speaker 3: wear on you. The weather not being factor other than

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Speaker 3: some gusts of wind over twenty miles an hour, and

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Speaker 3: the first three days of the tournament, I still think

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Speaker 3: this is gonna be between fifteen to twenty two under par.

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Speaker 3: The field is going to be gunning for those last

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Speaker 3: couple precious playoff spots. It's all gonna be about finding

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Speaker 3: the fairway with whatever club you can find the fairway with,

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Speaker 3: because if you're off the fairway, you're not going to

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Speaker 3: hit these greens in any position to make the birdies

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Speaker 3: that will be necessary. And of course putting on these

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Speaker 3: very severely sloped and undulated greens. They're not overly fast,

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Speaker 3: but they are tough, they are tricky. That's the biggest

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Speaker 3: difference between this week and last week is last week

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Speaker 3: is one of the easiest putting weeks of the whole season,

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Speaker 3: and this is one of the more challenging ones because

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Speaker 3: of the nuance of the bermuda as well as the grain.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna hear the word grain a million times this

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Speaker 3: week when you're watching the broadcast. It's all real, it's

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Speaker 3: all valid. So yes, putting on bermuda is going to

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Speaker 3: be extremely important. But also you have a very concentrated

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Speaker 3: three buckets of approach proximity between one twenty five and

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Speaker 3: one seventy five is going to be about thirty percent

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Speaker 3: of the approach shots on this golf course. That's a

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Speaker 3: big carryover stat that is very sticky. We can definitely

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Speaker 3: predict who's going to do well with that because we

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Speaker 3: have a whole season of stats. We have pass stats

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Speaker 3: from the same tournament that's always at Sedgefield. This is

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Speaker 3: one of the times where we can actually dig into

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Speaker 3: the data figure out who's going to do well based

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Speaker 3: on all the shots that everybody's going to hit, who's

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Speaker 3: better at those approach shots, who's better at finding fairwayes,

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Speaker 3: and who's better at putting on Bermuda. Seems to be

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Speaker 3: a pretty good windfall going into the playoffs every year

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Speaker 3: because we can really sink our teeth into the real

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Speaker 3: data from this whole season and the fact that this

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Speaker 3: golf course is so predictable.

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Speaker 1: I'm anxious to see who you are dialed into after

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Speaker 1: going over the data, and we will get into the

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Speaker 1: odds for the windhom Championship. Right after Bow tells you

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Speaker 1: Let's get into the Window Championship odds. All odds are

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Speaker 1: courtesy of DraftKings. As of Monday afternoon, Matt Fitzpatrick has

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Speaker 1: been in fine form. He opens as the favorite at

220
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,800
Speaker 1: plus two thousand. Ben Griffin and Keegan Bradley are plus

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Speaker 1: twenty five hundred. Robert McIntyres plus twenty eight hundred. Jordan Speith,

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Speaker 1: Hedeki Matsuyama, Akshay Battia and Aaron Rye are plus three thousand.

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Speaker 1: Jake Knapp, Harry holl And Kirk Kitty Yama plus thirty

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Speaker 1: five hundred See Who, Kim, Luke Clanton and Lucas Glover

225
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Speaker 1: are plus four thousand. Adam Scott is plus forty five hundred,

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Speaker 1: and at plus five thousand are Sam Stevens, Ricky Fowler,

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Speaker 1: Michael Thorbjornsen, Max Grazerman and Cameron Young. Anyone here who

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Speaker 1: interests you.

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Speaker 3: Bo, Yeah, there's a couple. The favorites aren't really favorites

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Speaker 3: this week. For me, I was handicapping it to where

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Speaker 3: I wanted to like our favorite here, Fitzpatrick. But I

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Speaker 3: keep scrolling down and down and down to find him

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Speaker 3: in my model, and he's still going, still going. Even

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Speaker 3: though he's been playing well lately, it hasn't been on

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Speaker 3: courses like this. There he is fought all the way

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Speaker 3: down in the middle of pack. It's not good enough

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Speaker 3: for me to be betting a favorite with short odds,

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Speaker 3: especially for somebody who hasn't won in a very long time.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to start my card to a guy who

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Speaker 3: has won the season, who is Captain America, and who

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Speaker 3: is going to be a very popular choice in DFS tournaments.

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Speaker 3: Keegan Bradley twenty five to one odds to win this thing.

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00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:21,120
Speaker 3: He is the class of this field as far as

244
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Speaker 3: recent success, recent form, and just ball striking in general.

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Speaker 3: This guy is te Degreen number two in this field.

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00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:29,960
Speaker 3: He's number two on that short one twenty five to

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Speaker 3: one fifty approach bucket. He's number twelve an overall approach

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Speaker 3: and sixth and par four scoring. This is exactly who

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Speaker 3: I want to start with at twenty five to one.

250
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,040
Speaker 3: Just an amazing ball striker having a great season, and

251
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Speaker 3: it's going to be more fuel for the for the

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Speaker 3: conversation of whether or not Keegan Bradley will be a

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Speaker 3: playing captain at the Ryder Cup in September.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's interesting for sure. I think among the favorites,

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Speaker 1: he is probably the most appealing. Matt Fitzpatrick hasn't played

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Speaker 1: this event since twenty eighteen. He has been hot lately though,

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Speaker 1: with the top ten finish in each of his last

258
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Speaker 1: three events, including a fourth at the Open Championship. I

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Speaker 1: would to like Ben Griffin Moore like he had been

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Speaker 1: on fire throughout the late spring and early summer. But

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Speaker 1: I wonder bo has he run out of gas?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 1: He's missed the cut in his last two events, the

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Speaker 1: John Deere and the Open Championship. But Griffin has finished

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Speaker 1: top ten at the win him in two of the

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Speaker 1: last three years, so he has shown some aptitude for

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Speaker 1: this course. Robert McIntyre finished second at the US Open,

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Speaker 1: seventh at the Open Championship, but the Windham hasn't really

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Speaker 1: been a good event for him. He missed the cut

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Speaker 1: last year, finished sixty fifth in his only other appearance.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Akha Batilla for a second bow like

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Speaker 1: he's really interesting. It's been kind of a disappointing season

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Speaker 1: for Akshay hasn't seriously contended anywhere since the Players Championship,

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Speaker 1: where I believe he was third.

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Speaker 2: He did play fairly well at the.

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Speaker 1: Three m last week, finishing twenty fifth, and he is

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Speaker 1: a really pealing statistical profile for the Windom. Not long,

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Speaker 1: but pretty straight off the tee, good on approach, pretty

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00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 1: good wedge game, good on Bermuda greens. But he's missed

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Speaker 1: the cut in all four of his Windham appearances.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true, but I'm betting on Oxbata thirty to

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Speaker 3: one for him. It's not fair. It's it's not fair

283
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Speaker 3: that we get thirty to one odds on the guy

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Speaker 3: who's probably gonna win this tournament. Oxbatia is all the firepower,

285
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Speaker 3: He's all the all the everything you want in this tournament.

286
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,320
Speaker 3: Accuracy off the TA is great, especially when less than driver.

287
00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,720
Speaker 3: He got in trouble last on Sunday because he was

288
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Speaker 3: top five all the way through that tournament and then

289
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Speaker 3: fell apart because he couldn't he couldn't afford to miss

290
00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:47,240
Speaker 3: left off the tee at TPC Twin Cities and as

291
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Speaker 3: that was his horrible miss all day Sunday and it

292
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Speaker 3: knocked him all the way down to the twenty fifth finish,

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Speaker 3: where he was top five all week long until that happened.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that left miss is going to be

295
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Speaker 3: in his bag this week because he won't be hit

296
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Speaker 3: driver very often. It is a lot of drivers last week,

297
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Speaker 3: very few this week. Akshay's wedge game, his approach game

298
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Speaker 3: from one twenty five to one seventy five is not

299
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Speaker 3: just best in this field, it's best in the world.

300
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 3: Better than Scotti Scheffler, better than everybody, And so if

301
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Speaker 3: you're going to put a birdie maker like ax Shavatia

302
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Speaker 3: in this field where he's fourth and overall ball striking,

303
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,440
Speaker 3: his worst stat category is putting at forty ninth, and

304
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,000
Speaker 3: that's better. That's up from his previous years where he

305
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,480
Speaker 3: was outside of the top one hundred in putting and

306
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Speaker 3: Bermuda happens to be his weakest surface. But I still

307
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Speaker 3: think that this guy is going to light up the

308
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Speaker 3: scoreboard year. He's in different form this year than he

309
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Speaker 3: has in years past coming into the windhom Championship, So

310
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 3: I will be betting very aggressive on a good Aux

311
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Speaker 3: Shavati at thirty to one.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about another bow mcbeer favorite. Harry Hall.

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Speaker 1: The Englishman is pretty interesting. Has a streak of seven

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Speaker 1: straight top twenty fives. While he did have that streak

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Speaker 1: and it was snapped with a mere twenty eighth place

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Speaker 1: finish at the three m o Ben Haul's an excellent potter,

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00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 1: fares pretty well on Bermuda greens, but he's missed the

318
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Speaker 1: cut at the wind in the last two years, which

319
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 1: were his first two appearances here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he struggles off the tee Fairway's gained he's ninety

321
00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 3: third in this field, and strokes gained approach he's ninety

322
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Speaker 3: second in this field. So as great as his short

323
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,120
Speaker 3: game is, I think he's a little short this week.

324
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 3: I do understand he makes more birdies than just about anybody,

325
00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 3: but the fairways gained and the accuracy on approach, it's

326
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Speaker 3: got to be better than what Harry Hall has shown us.

327
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,360
Speaker 3: Bogey avoidance is good, strokes gained part four is good.

328
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:36,960
Speaker 3: It all checks out. I just would like to see

329
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 3: a little bit more value on the books for Harry

330
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 3: Hall because he really hasn't chased any wins recently, especially

331
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Speaker 3: on a full field event like this. So I think

332
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 3: I'll skip Harry Hall this week, even though I do

333
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 3: really enjoy watching him play.

334
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, the top twenty bet might be in play for

335
00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 1: Harry Hall, but I agree he doesn't look like a

336
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 1: great value to win out right.

337
00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 2: I don't know if there's much else to see here

338
00:16:59,200 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 2: from this group.

339
00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 1: Decki Matciama he's missed the cut here in his last

340
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: three appearances. Aaron Raye won here last year, but he

341
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 1: had finished seventy first and missed the cut in his

342
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:12,119
Speaker 1: two previous wind Him appearances, and hasn't really contended seriously

343
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:17,639
Speaker 1: in any tournament since February. Your guy Kurkidiamobo just doesn't

344
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,440
Speaker 1: seem like a good fit for Sedgwick. Not that accurate

345
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,879
Speaker 1: off the team is putting hasn't been all that sharp

346
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 1: until last.

347
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,880
Speaker 3: Week, and sudding has been bad, been bad.

348
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 1: And Seawoo Kim also not real sharp lately. He did

349
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,640
Speaker 1: win this event in twenty sixteen, has had three other

350
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,840
Speaker 1: top five finishes here in the last six years, but

351
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,160
Speaker 1: based on recent form, doesn't look like a great play.

352
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 1: Let's get to some more of the odds. Danny McCarthy, JT.

353
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,200
Speaker 1: Post and Ryan Gerard, Nikolai Hoigard and Matt Wallace are

354
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:51,440
Speaker 1: all plus fifty five hundred Thorbiorn Olison, Sung, J M. Pearson,

355
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,880
Speaker 1: Cootie and Kevin Yu are plus six thousand, Yes, Perspens

356
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 1: and Tony Finow, Davis Thompson and Maxhoma are plus sixty

357
00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 1: five hundred, Andrew Novak, Tom Kim, Bud Cowley, Ryan Fox

358
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,960
Speaker 1: and Keith Mitchell are plus seven thousand, and at plus

359
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 1: seventy five hundred are Jackson Coyven, Alex Smalley, Emiliano Grio,

360
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,560
Speaker 1: Rico Hooye, and Michael Kim what about the mid range

361
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 1: options bow? Is there anyone worth an investment here?

362
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,719
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be monitoring Luke Clanton, who's currently at

363
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 3: forty to one, but is very likely to slip here

364
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 3: with the field kind of moving away from him as

365
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 3: a popular choice after last week. If he slips to

366
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 3: that fifty range, I'll be all over Luke Clanton because

367
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,720
Speaker 3: he's at fifth in my model, sixth in my model

368
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 3: ball striking extraordinaire, Bertie making extraordinaire. He has struggled at

369
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 3: avoiding bogies, which doesn't seem to be too big of

370
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 3: a deal here. He's a good enough putter middle of

371
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,720
Speaker 3: the packing of putting there. But I'm going to really

372
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 3: be looking at You're gonna love this. Ryan Gerard, the

373
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 3: winner of the Barracuda. He was another guy that I

374
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 3: chatted up on the practice screen before his Saturday round

375
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 3: a couple weeks ago. This guy's dialed in, and Ryan

376
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,919
Speaker 3: Gerard when he he's dialed in, he's really tough to

377
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,639
Speaker 3: beat because he is absolutely nails with the irons and

378
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 3: he's very accurate off the tee. He's he's really kind

379
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 3: of only struggled with the shortest approach bucket. But he's

380
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 3: been so good at the one twenty five to one

381
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 3: fifty and the one fifty to one seventy five buckets

382
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 3: that I'm not too worried about that. He's seventh in

383
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,880
Speaker 3: overall approach in this field and the hot putter recently

384
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 3: with the win at the Barracuda, that's going to help

385
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 3: him here. I really like Ryan jard at fifty five

386
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,120
Speaker 3: to one and at seventy to one Bud Collie. Every

387
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,640
Speaker 3: time there's a short golf course with birdies that need

388
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: to be made, we're gonna have Bud colly go scoop

389
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 3: up those birdies for us, because this guy is a

390
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 3: machine on these shorter courses. Would I like to play

391
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,880
Speaker 3: him at any any place over seventy four hundred yards, Nope,

392
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 3: But it's it's the short golf courses with wedge play

393
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 3: that's required. Bud Callie is the best par four golfer

394
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 3: in this field. Number one on strokes gain par four,

395
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 3: He's he's pretty much in the top half of the

396
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 3: field and every other statistic category thirteenth and putting, eighteenth

397
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,439
Speaker 3: and birdies and fourth and bogie avoidance. He's he's a

398
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 3: really solid player that shakes advantage of bermudas surfaces. I

399
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 3: think Bud Colly is the one to bet it's seventy

400
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 3: to one, seventy five to one depending on the books.

401
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 3: That's a green light right there.

402
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 1: There are a couple others in this group who kind of

403
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 1: interest me. Denny McCarthy, great potter. He's had two top

404
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 1: fifteen's here in the last five years and the lack

405
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 1: of distance off the tea won't kill him at this course.

406
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 1: And Ryan Fox, who missed the cut last year in

407
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 1: his Wyndham debut bought. He's won twice this year and

408
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 1: has been pretty good putting on Bermuda's surfaces. Then there's

409
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: some guys who they've been horses for the course maybe,

410
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 1: but I just don't know if the form justifies a

411
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,199
Speaker 1: JT post in poor form of late. Did win this

412
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 1: event in twenty nineteen and has had some other good showings.

413
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 2: Sung j M be interesting to see.

414
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 1: If Sedgefield can perk him up because he has either

415
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 1: missed the cut or finished outside the top fifteen it's

416
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 1: last seven than events, but he's had three top tens

417
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,159
Speaker 1: and five top twenty fives at the wind him in

418
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: just the last six years, and Tom Kim seems like

419
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 1: he's slowly but surely getting his act together after mostly

420
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 1: disappointing season. He won this event in his only other

421
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 1: appearance here in twenty twenty two. What about long shots

422
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,360
Speaker 1: of eighty to one or longer boa does anyone stand out?

423
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, this guy has been playing great the last few weeks,

424
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 3: including a win at the ISCO, which I did shout

425
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 3: out beforehand. William Mao eighty to one, That's exactly what

426
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: we're looking for. The ISCO in Louisville was a seven

427
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 3: thousand yard course much like this one with Actually I

428
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 3: think the ISCO Championship course was tougher than Sedgefield. Is

429
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: so William Mao on these shorter golf courses. Another guy

430
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 3: that really ups the updy ante when it comes to

431
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 3: wedge approach game. Makes a ton of birdies, pretty strong

432
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 3: putter as well. I'll be betting him at eighty to one.

433
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,640
Speaker 3: Patrick Fishburne. I've thrown out a couple bets for him

434
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: this season, one hundred and twenty to one. Another guy

435
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 3: who makes a lot of birdies, not necessarily good at

436
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 3: avoiding the big numbers, but Fishburne young player he'll keep

437
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 3: getting better. And these are the types of events where

438
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 3: we see the Tom Kims at twenty years old a

439
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 3: couple of years ago win this tournament. These are this

440
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 3: is the opportunity where if you're not pushing for a

441
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 3: playoff spot, you're looking for prize money of course, and

442
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: you're looking to keep your status. Some of these guys

443
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 3: are coming up on conditional status. They're trying to get

444
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 3: the lock up the top one hundred to keep their

445
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 3: card next season. That's both of Mao and Fishburn are

446
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 3: both looking to keep their card through twenty twenty six,

447
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 3: and so I expect strong performances there. And then at

448
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,239
Speaker 3: two hundred to one, Jackson Suber. Suber is coming in

449
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 3: really strong in my model at number twenty two on

450
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 3: the strength of number two in this entire field and

451
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 3: Birdier better percentage. That's great well, he's also number three

452
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 3: in bogie avoidance. Ironically it's because of his short game,

453
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 3: especially hutting. He's also a really good approach player at

454
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 3: thirtieth in this field. The one thing I worry about

455
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 3: with Suber is off the tee. He's number one twenty

456
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 3: two and fairways gained, but at two hundred and one.

457
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 3: I think that's baked in. I think that he's got

458
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: the firepower to make some noise at two hundred and one.

459
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: Some of the names I'll mention as compelling long shots

460
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: Christian Bazutenhout eighty to one, shortened, straight off the t

461
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: in ranks twelfth in strokes gained putting. He's finished top

462
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: twenty and two of his last three events and was

463
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 1: twenty second at the Windham last year. Nico Etriveria has

464
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 1: kind of a similar profile to Bizutenhout short and straight

465
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,880
Speaker 1: off the tee. Very good putter. Nico is ninety to one.

466
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 1: Kevin Royd one hundred to one, has played pretty well

467
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: of late, straight driver, pretty solid potter. Adam Spencon one

468
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one. He's finished seventh here in

469
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: each of the last two years and is coming off

470
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: a fourteenth place finish at the three M Open. Although

471
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: Man Svenson ranks one hundred and sixty eighth in strokes

472
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 1: gained putting. That's the BlimE the profile there and both

473
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: a favorite of mine this season. Sammy Vallamaki one hundred

474
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: and seventy to one. Excellent potter and I love the price.

475
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, you do.

476
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: I'm going to give a little comment on Niko Echavaria,

477
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 3: since he seems to be the darling of the entire

478
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 3: golf betting industry today. I am going to be completely

479
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: fading Niko Echevarria because even though he is number one

480
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: in putting in this field, which is a very valuable

481
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 3: stat at Sedgefield, he's outside the top one hundred and

482
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 3: five of the other categories here, including off the te ball,

483
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: striking and proximity on approach, outside the top one hundred

484
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 3: in this field. So even though he's ninety to one,

485
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 3: I think that's still not a value for Nico because

486
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 3: if he can't find the fair way here, it won't

487
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 3: matter if he's putting for birdie bogie parr. He's he's

488
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 3: not going to be looking at enough bogies to keep

489
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: pace here. I am completely off of Niko Echeveria, and

490
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 3: I'm I'm kind of surprised to see that everybody seems

491
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 3: to putting all their eggs in his putting ability when

492
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 3: it takes two or three shots to get into a

493
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 3: putting situation.

494
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: Good points.

495
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: All right, Let's compare the early betting cards. Bo who

496
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: is on yours.

497
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 3: So starting off, I have Keegan Bradley at twenty five

498
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 3: to one. Ok Sha Batia thirty to one. That ox

499
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 3: shay bed is going to be a full ladder. I

500
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 3: got Luke Clanton at forty to one, but I'm going

501
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 3: to be looking to invest more if he slips to

502
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 3: deeper odds. Ryan Gerard fifty five to one, Bud Caley

503
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 3: seventy to one, William Mout eighty to one, Patrick Fishburne

504
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,360
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty and Jackson Super two hundred to one.

505
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: I too, am betting Aksha Batilla at thirty to one.

506
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 1: I've got Danny McCarthy at fifty five to one. I

507
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 1: think I've let you talk me into Bud Cauley Baul.

508
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 1: What is Bud seventy to one?

509
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 2: Yep. I'm also going to go with Christian Zudenhout.

510
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 1: At eighty to one, and a little something on Sammy

511
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: Vallamaki at one hundred and seventy to one. Now for

512
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: a one and done competition, pretty good week for both

513
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: both of us. At the three I'm open BO had

514
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: Jake Knapp. He tied for third and earned four hundred

515
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: and ten thousand and twenty five dollars. Could have been

516
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: better if he hadn't splashed down on number eighteen on Sunday,

517
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: could have at least had that solo third and goten

518
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: you a few one hundred thousand dollars more.

519
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 3: But one hurt a little bit. That one hurt a

520
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:19,479
Speaker 3: little bit.

521
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: Yes, I had Chris got her up.

522
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 1: He tied for tenth fell off a little bit on

523
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: the weekend after contending for the first two days, but

524
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: his tie for tenth was good for two hundred and

525
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: sixty three nine hundred dollars.

526
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: And so, yeah, I'm a million on you.

527
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: I got a million.

528
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: Bo was banked about eight point seven million for the season.

529
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 1: I'm about a million behind at seven point seven million.

530
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: Your honors this week? Bo, who you got?

531
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: So I'll just say it now. I did have Kurt

532
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 3: Kitty I'm a fourth in my model last week, but

533
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 3: because of his putting form which showed the first two days,

534
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 3: I didn't pick him in the one and done, and

535
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: I'm also not going to pick him this week. But

536
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 3: I was kicking myself because he should have been my

537
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 3: pick last week and that would have been great. But

538
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: this week I'm going to go with Kegan Bradley.

539
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: Captain America is I'm gonna go with Akha Batiya. I mean,

540
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: after the way you've talked him up, all I need

541
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: not go with young Aksha.

542
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 4: Yeah.

543
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna need all million dollars from the

544
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 3: prize money to catch up.

545
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: That's all for this week's Betting Pros PJA podcast. Please

546
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: come join us again next week when we'll be previewing

547
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the FedEx

548
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: Saint Jue Championship.

549
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone.

550
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

551
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

552
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

553
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,199
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554
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,960
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555
00:27:51,000 --> 00:28:06,400
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