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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: POPA, All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five forty coty five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the kick as block the college football Laura stundon,

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and.

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Speaker 3: The lateral turn.

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Speaker 2: The counter on the.

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Speaker 1: Inside, don't you The lad.

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Speaker 2: Came off the field to night. It's not the size

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Speaker 2: of the dog in the fighting, it's the size of

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Speaker 2: the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Mike Calvary's. I'm joined today by Josh Nunn, an analyst

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Speaker 1: of college football here in the Action Network universe. Josh

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Speaker 1: specializes in FCS and group of football, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be digging deeper into the off season research that he's

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Speaker 1: been conducting, targeting two more wind totals and a future

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Speaker 1: and I'm also going to bring two of my own

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Speaker 1: to the table and a Heisman future as well. If

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Speaker 1: you want to go ahead and follow Josh through the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app, you're going to want to go and

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Speaker 1: search his nickname, which is Duck, and you're gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to tail everything that he puts in there, which

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Speaker 1: is incredibly important, vitally important in the off season because

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Speaker 1: these numbers can move. We were just talking off air

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Speaker 1: about how much movement there have been as it relates

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Speaker 1: to Southern miss You want to get the best numbers possible.

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Speaker 1: We talked about it in the last Win Total episode.

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Speaker 1: And also shopping around is incredibly valuable. The Action Labs

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Speaker 1: comparison tool allows you to do it easily through our

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Speaker 1: app and you know, through our offerings and everything under

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Speaker 1: the sun here at the Action Network. Because the difference

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Speaker 1: between a six at minus one fifty a six and

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Speaker 1: a half at plus one twenty sometimes it can feel

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Speaker 1: like you're just nitpicking a little bit. But when you're

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Speaker 1: stacking these bets up in the off season and they're

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Speaker 1: riding for five or six months, if you want to

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Speaker 1: get the most ROI as possible to get that money

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Speaker 1: back and be able to stack those winnings up, and

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Speaker 1: a big part of it is shopping round and getting

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Speaker 1: the best numbers ahead of time. So just that was

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Speaker 1: my little evangelizing there. I'm preaching from the pulpit here,

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Speaker 1: you guys understand it. Just a reminder before you pull

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Speaker 1: the trigger on anything you hear here to make sure

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Speaker 1: you shop around in your state with as many legal

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Speaker 1: sports books as possible. All right, Josh, we now have

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Speaker 1: the table setting done. We're going to hop right into

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Speaker 1: the main course. You have an under that you've targeted

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Speaker 1: out of the AAC and it's two lane sitting at

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Speaker 1: eight and a half plus money plus one ten at

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. This is you know, too late. It's interesting

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Speaker 1: to me. I'm going to just tee this up for

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Speaker 1: you and let you run with the football. This used

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Speaker 1: to be a really hard place to win at when

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Speaker 1: you think back really into the mid nineties and the

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Speaker 1: late nineties when Tommy Bowden got this program really cooking

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Speaker 1: with Rich Rod's offense and Sean King at the helm.

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Speaker 1: They go undefeated in nineteen ninety eight twelve and zero,

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Speaker 1: but outside of that they want a single bowl game

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Speaker 1: for the next nineteen seasons. Before willly it's got things

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Speaker 1: going in the right direction, and even so he's still

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Speaker 1: at a two to ten record in twenty twenty one

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Speaker 1: before they got on this hot streak and they won

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Speaker 1: the Cotton Bowl. And then he passed the baton to

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Speaker 1: this new coaching staff that you're going to get into

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Speaker 1: in a moment after year one, what's interesting though, is

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Speaker 1: just all of it. Used to say this is a

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Speaker 1: program in the shadow of the SEC. They used to

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Speaker 1: play in the Superdome in front of you know, three

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Speaker 1: hundred people. Now they have this beautiful home stadium, and

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Speaker 1: these expectations have to continued to rise year over year,

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Speaker 1: all the way up to eight and a half for

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Speaker 1: a wind total. If you told me five years ago

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Speaker 1: that Tulane would have an eight and a half win total,

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Speaker 1: I would say that's got to be an auto under bet.

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Speaker 1: But obviously the expectations have changed. So when you look

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Speaker 1: at their schedule, they draw three Power four teams in

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Speaker 1: the first four weeks, and I happen to be higher

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Speaker 1: on them than most. You got Northwestern Duke and Ole Miss.

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Speaker 1: That duke matchup, by the way, features their former quarterback.

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Speaker 1: All right, enough for me, tell me why you're going

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Speaker 1: under on the Green Wave.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I just look at a couple of different

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Speaker 4: things last year with Tulane. They had some really competitive,

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Speaker 4: close losses against Power four competition last season, and then

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Speaker 4: they really kind of just ran through the American schedule

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Speaker 4: up until the last game of the season where they

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Speaker 4: lost at home against Memphis. I was really stunned by

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Speaker 4: that performance. I was also stunned by their performance against

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Speaker 4: Army in the AAC Championship game, and not in and

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Speaker 4: of itself that they lost the game, but it was

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Speaker 4: really how they were out of position on defense. They

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Speaker 4: were just ill prepared offensively, the red zone execution was

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Speaker 4: just so poor, and it was just stunning how ill

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Speaker 4: prepared they looked against Army. And then they ended the

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Speaker 4: season looking just very very poor in the bowl game

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Speaker 4: where they had a plethora of opt outs and they

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Speaker 4: had a lot of their talent that had already moved

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Speaker 4: on and decided to not play this year. I am

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Speaker 4: focusing on their regular season win total under for a

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Speaker 4: lot of the reasons that you mentioned. Right, they have

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Speaker 4: a really tricky non conference with three Power four squad

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Speaker 4: odds that I think are ascending. Northwestern is not going

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Speaker 4: to be a competitor in the Big Ten, but they're

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Speaker 4: going to be a very vastly improved team.

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Speaker 3: They're going to have a much.

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Speaker 1: More They have a quarterback, I mean, just adding Preston

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Speaker 1: Stone into the mix for a program that perennially overachieves

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Speaker 1: when there's no expectations, I believe their win total is

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Speaker 1: at four on this upcoming season four and a half

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Speaker 1: somewhere like that. Preston Stone is a huge upgrade if

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Speaker 1: he's healthy. So right off the bat, a game that

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Speaker 1: last year you probably could have penciled in a w

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden it's a toss up or a

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Speaker 1: potential loss.

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Speaker 4: And really in that game too, I think that you'll

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Speaker 4: find the heart and soul. Last year for two lane

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Speaker 4: defensively was the defensive line, and they're having a complete

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Speaker 4: rebuild on the defensive line and in the secondary, and

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Speaker 4: you'll see a lot more dynamic explosiveness from Northwestern in

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Speaker 4: their passing attack with some of the key transfers that

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Speaker 4: they have in including Griffin Wilde, who comes in from

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Speaker 4: South Dakota State was likely a Big twelve talent anyway.

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Speaker 3: He was recruited by some Big.

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Speaker 4: Twelve schools out of high school who just never ended

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Speaker 4: up coming to the table, but probably where he belongs anyway,

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Speaker 4: and so he'll really provide a shot in the arm

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Speaker 4: two to the passing attack. I think that's going to

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Speaker 4: be a much more competitive game than people realize. I

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Speaker 4: already have Northwestern plus seven and a half in pocket

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Speaker 4: for Week one. Duke is ascending with plenty of talent.

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Speaker 4: Ole Miss on the road is going to be one

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Speaker 4: of those that's not going to.

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Speaker 3: Be very easy.

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Speaker 4: There's that Week five against the spread spot that'll be

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Speaker 4: really tough when they've already played four games, and then

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Speaker 4: they have to go to Tulsa and that'll be a

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Speaker 4: really tough spot. Maybe not a game they lose, but

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Speaker 4: that'll be definitely a tough against the spread spot. And

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Speaker 4: then you've got these two games at home in the

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Speaker 4: middle of the season, hosting East Carolina and Army, and

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Speaker 4: those will be no kpewalks. You've got two competitive, tough

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Speaker 4: road games at Utsa and at Memphis. And I'm just

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Speaker 4: looking down the line at the personnel and the talent

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Speaker 4: that they lost. Darien Mensa was just such a great quarterback.

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Speaker 4: They lost Makay Hughes off to Oregon. Three of the

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Speaker 4: top pass catchers are gone. Offensively, the offensive line is

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Speaker 4: a complete rebuild. But to me, the heart and soul

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Speaker 4: of this team next year was a unit that really

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Speaker 4: waked a lot of havoc on opposing quarterbacks, and that

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Speaker 4: was the defensive line, and their production is just completely gone.

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Speaker 4: Patrick Jenkins has gone, Aiden Huntington is gone, and to

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Speaker 4: have to rebuild that defensive line is going to take

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Speaker 4: some time. I think that when you look at Tulane,

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Speaker 4: they're going to have specific goals that they've set out

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Speaker 4: in the preseason, and they can still accomplish those goals.

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Speaker 4: They will still be a player in the American but

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Speaker 4: I think the non conference is going to just be

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Speaker 4: a little too tricky to navigate, and they do got

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Speaker 4: some conference spots, specifically at UTSA and then at Memphis

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Speaker 4: in November, that are just going to be a cause

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Speaker 4: for me to want to go under the market on

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Speaker 4: this win total consistently amongst eight or nine chops is

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Speaker 4: about minus one twenty to minus one thirty five. But

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Speaker 4: bet MGM still has a plus one ten out there,

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Speaker 4: and that's a significant advantage to the player to get

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Speaker 4: that extra thirty five cents worth of juice, which is

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Speaker 4: why we agreed shopping around using the Odds comparison tool

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Speaker 4: get the best number. It is such a more advantageous

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Speaker 4: play at that plus one ten price point. I think

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Speaker 4: Twulane can still be a very good team this year

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Speaker 4: and can still be a player in the American But

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Speaker 4: to assume nine and three or better with what this

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Speaker 4: team loses from a production standpoint on both sides of

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Speaker 4: the ball just too much for me. So at plus

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Speaker 4: one ten, give me under eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: You're down in the G five, the muck, the dirt.

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Speaker 1: You're army crawling through some of these games in November

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Speaker 1: that nobody's watching. You know, Bowl hopes are out the window.

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Speaker 1: You watched a decent amount of ball State football last year.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of their transfer quarterback coming in,

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Speaker 1: potentially winning the starting job out of camp and being

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Speaker 1: the new face of the program, essentially for some role

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Speaker 1: on his staff.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that he had a lot put on

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Speaker 4: his shoulders at Ball State. I think that they were

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Speaker 4: in a tough position anyway, with a really really poor defense,

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Speaker 4: and so Scott new and the group really put a

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Speaker 4: lot on Kate and seemens A to really outscore teams,

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Speaker 4: to try to stay in games. And you know, I

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Speaker 4: think the stats were probably a little better than expected

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Speaker 4: from him. But you're also stepping up in competition this season,

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Speaker 4: and you're not playing against some of those softer MAC

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Speaker 4: defensive lines in softer Max secondaries. So I think it'll

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Speaker 4: be a situation where siemens A is serviceable. But I

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Speaker 4: just don't think that we're going to see the type

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Speaker 4: of performances and the type of explosive talent that Darien

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Speaker 4: Mensah had. There's a reason he was off immediately to

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Speaker 4: the Power four level. I think he'll be a serviceable quarterback,

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Speaker 4: but slight downgrade.

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Speaker 3: To be honest with you, all right.

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Speaker 1: I will see your plus one ten on that two

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Speaker 1: lane under and I'll raise you plus one thirty eight

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Speaker 1: on the IOWA over seven and a half wins. Not

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Speaker 1: exactly the sexiest program in America to get in on

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Speaker 1: and over with, but let's just talk sheer success for

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Speaker 1: Kirk Farns. He has gone over this number seven and

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Speaker 1: a half wins in nine eight seasons, and it would

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Speaker 1: be ten if they had played a normal amount of

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Speaker 1: games during that COVID year because they went six and

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Speaker 1: two in limited action. He surpassed seven and a half

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Speaker 1: wins basically in a decade snapshot, with only two slightly

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Speaker 1: above average quarterbacks in that entire ten year run in CJ.

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Speaker 1: Bethard and Nate Stanley. The rest it was just a

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Speaker 1: clown car of underachievers at quarterback, and that's really putting

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Speaker 1: it nicely. But then of course they're running Brian Farren's

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Speaker 1: offense for most of that time. He's torpedoing their chances

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Speaker 1: on a yearly basis, I mean the whole drive for

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Speaker 1: three twenty five, it was a joke. They finally get

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Speaker 1: rid of him and they bring in a living, breathing

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Speaker 1: offensive quarterback coordinator with a real, i would say vision

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Speaker 1: for how best to structure an offense around the pieces

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Speaker 1: that he has. He can be multi dimensional in terms

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Speaker 1: of his game planning and his playbook that he puts together.

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Speaker 1: And last year you saw it. In the three years

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Speaker 1: before his arrival in Iowa City, their average finish in

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Speaker 1: scoring was one hundred and eighteenth one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: eighth in total offense, which is just unheard of at

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Speaker 1: the Power four level. In year one, he elevated their

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Speaker 1: offensive seventy second in scoring, so they went from true

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Speaker 1: tire fire to mediocre, which was good enough for them

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Speaker 1: to be competitive against just about everybody on their schedule,

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Speaker 1: a twelve point three point per game increase year over year.

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Speaker 1: So he's already proven in one year on campus what

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Speaker 1: he can do, but now he finally has a quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Mark Gronowski comes in from South Dakota State, and for

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Speaker 1: those who are not all that familiar with him, he

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Speaker 1: is arguably the best resume of any transfer quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the last two cycles. He's a two time FCS national champion.

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Speaker 1: He won the Walter Payton Award, which is the FCS Heisman.

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Speaker 1: He's a master over twelve thousand total yards and one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty total touchdowns in his college career as

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Speaker 1: a starter, He's just a winner. He's forty nine and six.

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Speaker 1: He's a really accurate intermediate passer, and that particularly shows

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Speaker 1: up on film when you look at what he does

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. He can layer passes over the

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Speaker 1: outreach arms of linebackers in front of DB's It gives

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Speaker 1: them a chance to score when they get their opportunities,

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Speaker 1: getting six instead of settling for three. And I think

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Speaker 1: he's the best running threat that Ioways had a quarterback

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and two when Brad Banks, by the

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Speaker 1: Way finished second in the Heisman race. Now, Bill Connley,

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Speaker 1: it's funny he said, you know, they replacing a lot

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Speaker 1: defensively in terms of personnel, but he's not picking against

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Speaker 1: them in terms of this defensive staff and what they're

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Speaker 1: able to do. Year in and year out. So he's

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Speaker 1: already put them tenth in SP plus in the preseason

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Speaker 1: on defense, twelve on special teams. So really I'm not

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Speaker 1: asking for a total turnaround on offense where all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden they're a top twenty unit if they can

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Speaker 1: be a top forty unit all of a sudden, when

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Speaker 1: you start looking at their opportunities on this schedule, you

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Speaker 1: start to nod your head that they're not going to

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Speaker 1: be outclassed, with the exception of probably the Penn State

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Speaker 1: and Oregon games, which by the way, both come to

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Speaker 1: Iowa City, and Penn State has stubbed their toll multiple

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Speaker 1: times as a highly rated team in Iowa City in

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Speaker 1: the past fifteen to twenty years. They've lost twice as

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Speaker 1: a top four team playing at Iowa And for that reason,

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Speaker 1: I think there's a chance that they're going to be

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Speaker 1: in one of those two games, but I don't need

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Speaker 1: those wins to be able to get over this seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. The final piece, by the way, offensively,

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Speaker 1: I skipped over a really stealthy hire Wake Forest. You know,

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Speaker 1: the Clall offense. Dave Clausen had a tremendous run, elevating

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Speaker 1: a program that's really just a basketball school there in

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Speaker 1: North Carolina. All of a sudden, people forget that Warren

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Speaker 1: Rigjeiro was really the mastermind offensively. He was the one

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Speaker 1: who perfected that slow mesh and was able to elevate quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: When you look at John Wolford, who has now made

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Speaker 1: five six million dollars in the NFL as a backup

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Speaker 1: Jamie Newman, how about Sam Hartman. Sam Hartman accounted for

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Speaker 1: fifty touchdowns in a season with the Demon Deacons offense,

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Speaker 1: which is incredible. So all of a sudden, things start

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Speaker 1: clicking for me where I could see Gronowski being somebody

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Speaker 1: that goes north to thirty touchdowns when you add it

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Speaker 1: in with this defense and special teams. Now I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at the schedule layups. They got Albany and UMass at

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Speaker 1: home early. Those are two wins. They're going to be

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Speaker 1: a slight favorite at Rutgers against Indiana, Minnesota at home,

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Speaker 1: Michigan State at home. We'll say even the Syhawk game

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Speaker 1: is going to be pretty close to a toss up.

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Speaker 1: They're going to be a slight dog in that one.

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Speaker 1: They also go to Madison to play Wisconsin. They're home

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Speaker 1: against Penn State and Oregon. As I mentioned at USC

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Speaker 1: late in the season at Nebraska, what's interesting about the

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Speaker 1: timing there USC. If things start to go off the rails,

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Speaker 1: I think it get really dicey for Lincoln Riley and

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Speaker 1: you could finally feel the heat later in the season.

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Speaker 1: You saw it last year as things kind of fell

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Speaker 1: apart a little bit in the back half of the schedule.

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Speaker 1: This USC team could be ascending or they could be

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Speaker 1: descending at a rapid rate. So I want to catch

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Speaker 1: them later in the season. And then that Nebraska game,

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Speaker 1: I think it's absolutely going to be a grudge match.

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Speaker 1: But you look at when they're playing. It's late in

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Speaker 1: the season. The Cornhuskers go to UCLA, then they go

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Speaker 1: to Penn State, so it's a west coast trip and

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Speaker 1: east coast strip, and then they're back on a short

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Speaker 1: week on Black Friday. So in terms of the timing

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Speaker 1: and when that game falls on the schedule, another one

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Speaker 1: where I could see them winning. My point here is

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Speaker 1: that I always only outclassed roster wise clearly twice the

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Speaker 1: entire season in terms of just the starting tow to

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Speaker 1: and it's Penn State and it's Oregon. They could drop both.

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Speaker 1: I still feel good about them going eight and two

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Speaker 1: against the rest of the schedule at plus money. I

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Speaker 1: love it. It's one of the most generous offerings in

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Speaker 1: terms of an over at plus money across all one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six FBS teams. So I'm in on

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Speaker 1: the Hawkeyes. What do you think about that assessment?

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Speaker 3: I love how you broke down the team.

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Speaker 4: I think that Gronowski is such an underrated quarterback and

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Speaker 4: his stat line at South Dakota State maybe not eye popping,

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Speaker 4: but South Dakota State ran an offense that was such

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Speaker 4: that they stressed balance. They ran the ball a lot

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Speaker 4: more than maybe what other personnel within the locker room

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Speaker 4: would have wanted. And we wrote up a lot of

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Speaker 4: FCS action here at the Action Network last season, and

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Speaker 4: part of that was involving South Dakota State, and there

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Speaker 4: was actually a little friction in that locker room based

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Speaker 4: on how they were using some of their skill guys

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Speaker 4: and the lack of quantity with what they were throwing

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Speaker 4: the ball. And it was really kind of a situation

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Speaker 4: where a lot of that personnel and offense wanted to

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Speaker 4: throw it more. They just were so conservative. Gronowski could

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Speaker 4: have done so much more. But you talk about the

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Speaker 4: fifteen yard out, you talk about some of those goal

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Speaker 4: line routes, hitting the whip route, hitting the dig route.

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Speaker 4: I mean, those routes are so hard to time. And

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Speaker 4: he puts the ball in very good situations and protects

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Speaker 4: it well. He can slide in the pocket well, he

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Speaker 4: can avoid the rush.

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Speaker 3: Right to his feet.

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Speaker 4: He's really a solid player and a very very good

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Speaker 4: talented quarterback for Iowa, something that they have not had

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Speaker 4: there at some time. When I break down the schedule,

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Speaker 4: I like it. I mean, you look at Albany, you

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Speaker 4: look at revenge situation against Iowa State in a game

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Speaker 4: that they had firmly in hand last season, so you

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Speaker 4: know that one circle for them in red ink as

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Speaker 4: a revenge situation. Even on the room U Mass, I

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Speaker 4: think Rutgers is going.

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Speaker 2: To be.

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Speaker 4: Decent, but maybe not as potent offensively without Kyle Nunjai

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Speaker 4: and some of the other guys that they had on

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Speaker 4: offense last season. Indiana is going to be a very

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Speaker 4: solid group, but I don't think they're going to be

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Speaker 4: the feisty bunch that we saw last year in Signetty's

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Speaker 4: first season. So I mean that's a situation where that's

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Speaker 4: a winnable game. Wisconsin is significantly down. I think they

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Speaker 4: catch Penn State in a situation where they could have

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Speaker 4: a puncher's chance in that game. You know, with Iowa,

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Speaker 4: regardless of the personnel, they are the epitome of consistency

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Speaker 4: in major college football defense and special teams. They don't

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Speaker 4: make mistakes, they don't get beat deep, they don't give

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Speaker 4: up a lot of explosives, and their special team play

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Speaker 4: is very, very consistent. That's something you want when you're

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Speaker 4: looking at betting and over. You want that third phase

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Speaker 4: of football to be extremely sound.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, two more quick notes, just in terms of the schedule.

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin also breaking in a new offense, Jeff crimes with

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Speaker 1: that reliably violent offense, the RVO. It did not work

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Speaker 1: out at his last stop, and I don't know, there's

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Speaker 1: just some issues in terms of he had that one

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Speaker 1: great year at Baylor. He's still making a meal out

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Speaker 1: of that. I just don't necessarily see the pieces working

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Speaker 1: for Wisconsin right away. And then Penn State. They have

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Speaker 1: a potential look ahead to Ohio State. That's their next

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Speaker 1: game on the schedule, as clearly a game that is

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Speaker 1: defined the James Franklin era of being really good but

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Speaker 1: not quite good enough so that Iowa schedule in terms

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Speaker 1: of how it lays out, the timing of who they

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Speaker 1: play and when and where. I don't think it can

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Speaker 1: get much better for a team like that out of

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Speaker 1: either the Big Ten or the SEC in terms of

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Speaker 1: having an opportunity to be competitive in ten eleven of

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Speaker 1: those games, but at a very reasonable win total of

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Speaker 1: seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: All right about that is you're looking at the Big Ten,

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Speaker 4: they're probably going to get three or four teams into

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Speaker 4: the playoff. That's going to keep Iowa really engaged late

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Speaker 4: in the season if they have one or two losses

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Speaker 4: and they may not necessarily be positioning for the conference title,

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Speaker 4: but they might be positioning for playoff positioning in the

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Speaker 4: twelve team playoffs. So that could be a really fascinating

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Speaker 4: thing to keep an eye on down the stretch. With

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Speaker 4: those last couple of games against Michigan State and ATMA Rask,

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Speaker 4: it should be fully locked in.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: Wazoo last year was a bit of a darling. They

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Speaker 1: even found themselves as a dark horse collegeable playoff contender

403
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Speaker 1: late in the season end up fading. And you think

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Speaker 1: that is going to continue. You're going under five and

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Speaker 1: a half wins at minus one to four out in

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Speaker 1: the market. I want to say this before you get

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Speaker 1: into selling me on it, because it's year one of

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Rodgers, and I want to say this. He is

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Speaker 1: a rising star in the profession. South Dakota State was

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Speaker 1: ascending already when he took over. He still went twenty

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Speaker 1: seven and three, won a national title, got to the

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Speaker 1: semifinals in his second year, and it was almost all

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Speaker 1: predicated on defense because they just absolutely suffocated people tops

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Speaker 1: in scoring defense back to back years. And Wazoo hasn't

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Speaker 1: had a fearsome defense really since the early two thousands

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Speaker 1: under Mike Price. You know, when they went to the

417
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Speaker 1: Rose Bowl, they had ded Achilanu and Isaac Brown off

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Speaker 1: the corner. They were able to get after quarterbacks, you know,

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Speaker 1: and really pressed teams without having to blitz back then.

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Speaker 1: But they've had a few defensive linemen pop over the years,

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Speaker 1: but I haven't really seen a great unit from the Koogs.

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Speaker 1: So I do think that given time, using the transfer portal,

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Speaker 1: using the traditional high school recruiting, he can find the

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Speaker 1: those overlooked players, which is exactly what he's gonna need

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Speaker 1: to do to get players to come to the surface

426
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Speaker 1: of the moon, which is Pulman Washington in the middle

427
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Speaker 1: of nowhere. They don't have a deep nil war chest,

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Speaker 1: but he's a good talent evaluator. Most of the guys

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Speaker 1: who rise up from the FCS ranks are And I

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Speaker 1: think there's a really good chance in year two, year three,

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Speaker 1: when they're in what the Pack eight, what are they

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Speaker 1: going to call themselves? The Pac ten if they can

433
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Speaker 1: get some more teams there, whatever the Pacific Conference becomes.

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Speaker 1: I think that they're going to be a feisty program.

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Speaker 1: I'm just not sure he can do it with this

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Speaker 1: bunch and the roster that he has currently. And I

437
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 1: think you agree with me on that.

438
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 3: I do a great.

439
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 4: Higher long term. I think a guy that can win

440
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:43,399
Speaker 4: there in the second, third, fourth year type of build

441
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 4: with the program. But there's a lot happening here at

442
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 4: Washington State. They lost so much production on both sides

443
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 4: of the ball way. Sean Parker running back going to Utah,

444
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 4: John Mattier off to Oklahoma. Four of the top five

445
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,880
Speaker 4: pass receivers from last year, either Kyle Williams was drafted

446
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 4: into the NFL, then three other of those participants transferred

447
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 4: onto larger programs. The defense, while they do bring in

448
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 4: some FCS talent and we'll get into that in just

449
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 4: a minute, there is a complete and full rebuild along

450
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 4: the defensive line and in the secondary, and the production

451
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 4: lost and with what they are replacing in the second

452
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 4: half of the depth chart is really going to be concerning.

453
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 4: There's twenty six FCS players that I account that they've

454
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 4: brought in on the two d on.

455
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 3: Both sides of the ball.

456
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 4: And this is now the second year for Wazoo out

457
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 4: of the PAC twelve, and they're no longer playing the

458
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 4: Mountain West hybrid schedule, and now this is the second

459
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 4: class where they're no longer recruiting the same athletes as Oregon, UCLA,

460
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 4: USC Utah. They're just not recruiting those same players. And

461
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 4: so your entire program talent wise, from the nucleus outward

462
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 4: is dropping. Another interesting thing pertaining to the schedule is

463
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 4: Wazoo did not travel east of the Mountain time zone

464
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 4: last season. They do four times this season in playing

465
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 4: a true independent schedule. So the quick hitters on the

466
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 4: road games that I think will be very difficult at

467
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 4: North Texas the week before they play Washington at Colorado

468
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 4: State the week after they play Washington, then they get

469
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 4: a bye week, They've got to go to Ole Miss,

470
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 4: and then they've got a double back for Virginia, and

471
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 4: those are going to be two brutal games in the Southeast.

472
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 4: That a is just their environments that WAZU is not

473
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 4: used to traveling to. There's going to be depth issues

474
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 4: with this team on.

475
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 3: Both sides of the wall.

476
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 4: We saw with a much more talented program, the team

477
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 4: just ran out of gas and ran on fumes. Last season.

478
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,360
Speaker 4: You mentioned Wazoo being a fifteen Minute of Fame playoff

479
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 4: team for some time, and they were kind of running

480
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 4: through the Mountain West. But if you look closer, it

481
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 4: took a miracle for them to beat San Jose State

482
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 4: at home. It took a miracle for them to beat

483
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 4: San Diego State on the road. That team was down

484
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 4: by thirteen in the fourth quarter and had to have

485
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 4: a miracle to come back and win that one. And

486
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 4: then I'm sorry, but they certainly ran out of gas

487
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 4: when they lost against New Mexico, Oregon State, and my goodness,

488
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 4: Wyoming at home before getting blown out in the bowl game.

489
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 4: It was incredible to just see the team fade, and

490
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 4: I can certainly see with the lack of depth that

491
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 4: this team has from an FBS personnel standpoint, they have

492
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 4: good FCS talent from an FBS standpoint, the travel and

493
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 4: this team is going to run out of steam very quickly.

494
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 4: I believe the schedule doesn't provide a ton of pure gimmes.

495
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 4: They should beat Idaho, although I will say no FBS

496
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 4: team due to my recollection, has been more well known

497
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 4: for kind of playing with their food at the FCS

498
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 4: level than Washington States. We've seen Portland State beat them,

499
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 4: We've seen Eastern Washington beat them. We've seen Idaho hang

500
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 4: within seven points of Washington State. So probably a win,

501
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 4: but man, they play with their food a lot against

502
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 4: FCS competition. San Diego State is likely to be improved.

503
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 4: You know that Washington is circling that Apple Cup game

504
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 4: in red ink based on how that game ended last

505
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 4: season with Washington's blown chances. My goodness, Colorado State at

506
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 4: elevation is really where I think that the lack of

507
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 4: depth and some of the fatigue can really start to

508
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 4: set in. And then what's the spread going to be

509
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 4: when they go to Ole Miss twenty six and a

510
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 4: half or so. I mean, it's just not likely a

511
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 4: winnable game. Same thing with Virginia. I'm a little bit

512
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 4: more high on Virginia this year and what they bring

513
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 4: in at the offensive line and at the running back position.

514
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 4: And that's certainly one that Virginia has to think they've

515
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 4: got to win that game in order to surpass Bowl

516
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 4: eligibility and finally start to get over the hump for

517
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 4: that program. It's kind of now or never Virginia. And

518
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 4: then after those two long road trips, you've got Toledo

519
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 4: coming to town, and you know Toledo's going to be

520
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 4: excited to play that Washington State bunch on the road.

521
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 4: Just another tough game that's far from m gimme. They

522
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 4: got Oregon State twice. Oregon State has a bunch of talent,

523
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 4: and Oregon State's going to be really hungry for some

524
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:10,959
Speaker 4: wins in the second half of the schedule after that

525
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 4: first half of their schedule. Really could see that take

526
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 4: a toll on them. And then the last road spot

527
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 4: and this is the last thing I'll mention. November twenty

528
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 4: second at JMU. JMU has made some exceptional offseason portal gets.

529
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 4: I love what Bob Jesney is building there with James Madison.

530
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 4: It's still a team that has never won the Sun

531
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 4: Belt unbelievably. You think that team should have about two

532
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 4: or three Sun Belt titles at this point, but they

533
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 4: weren't eligible. This proud bunch is going to probably be

534
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 4: thinking about being an outside chance at the Group of

535
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 4: five playoff representation. There's no way that this team throws

536
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 4: up a stinker at home against Washington State and a

537
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 4: potential resume builder. There's five really really tough road games.

538
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,479
Speaker 4: There's plenty of other land mines on the schedule. This

539
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 4: bunch will probably be competitive throughout the season early, but

540
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 4: I can see the fade happening and sliding and the

541
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 4: overall talent level top to bottom and the depth is

542
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 4: really going to hinder this squad. Under five and a

543
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 4: half is the play for me in my opinion.

544
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: Six and six would.

545
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 4: There be so many things that have to go right

546
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 4: for Wazoo this year, true independent schedule, lack of recruiting,

547
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 4: the overall depth under five and a half.

548
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're also drawn just a lot of quarterbacks. I'm

549
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: high on, you know, Williams with the Washington Huskies. I

550
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: think he could be a revelation. You saw what he

551
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: did in the bowl game. If they fully unleash his potential,

552
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: that could be a game that they can embarrassed early

553
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 1: in the year Ole Miss Austin Simmons. I think he

554
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: could be a breakout star. If you look at Virginia's

555
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 1: upgrade at quarterback bringing in Morris from Unt and then

556
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: Colorado State, you know with follower Nickelosi, just their offense

557
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: in general is far more balanced than it was two

558
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 1: years ago. They can run the football really well. So yeah,

559
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: I look at this as a lot of offenses that

560
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: will present Jimmy Rodgers defense in year one, which is

561
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 1: really a year zero when you look at his personnel,

562
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: I think that they could just be on their heels

563
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: the entire season, unable to stop the run, unable to

564
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: stop the pass before they get some real dudes in

565
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: their front seven. So I'm with you on this. I

566
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: think that they were clearly a paper tiger down the

567
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: stretch last year. It was a cute story as they

568
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 1: inch their way into the ap top twenty, but then

569
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 1: they got exposed. When you're losing to New Mexico, then

570
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 1: things are going to get really rocky, particularly against the schedule,

571
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 1: all right? Would you like to go yard at this

572
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: baseball season?

573
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: Well?

574
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,600
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588
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:06,960
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590
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597
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598
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599
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600
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 3: Four to two.

601
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: In New York, called the twenty four to seven hope

602
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: line at one eight seven seven eight hope and why

603
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: or text hope and why. All right, I'm gonna go

604
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: ahead and balance out some of your unders with another

605
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: over here. I like over three and a half wins

606
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: the rice al. You are going to have to lay

607
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: some significant juice. You're gonna want to shop around. I

608
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: saw as low as minus one sixty. It starts with this,

609
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: I believe in coach Abel Scott. Abel is a turnaround specialist.

610
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: He took a winless high school team used the tom

611
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: Osbourne option offense the out of the I formation, using

612
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: those powerbacks that dive pulling it, getting you know, down

613
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. Pitching it out all of a sudden.

614
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: By year three, their division champs. His next high school

615
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 1: hires them, turn them into absolute killers, one not one,

616
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: but two Virginia State championships. Then he goes to Washington

617
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: and Lee at the D three level as an OC

618
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: and takes that option offense, those option principles, moves it

619
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 1: back from under center to a shotgun attack, and that's

620
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: really where his career went thermonuclear. He goes from the

621
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: d D three level as a coordinator, he's promoted to

622
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: head coach, and then he leaves for Davidson. And if

623
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: you've watched any cutups of what he's done with the

624
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: Davidson Wildcats in the past seven seasons, it's just fun

625
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: to watch. I think generally for casuals, they want to

626
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: see the passing game. They want to see the vertical

627
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: passing game, in particular those great athletes on the perimeter,

628
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: and sometimes you know, short shreff can be given to

629
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 1: the running game and people just aren't as interested if

630
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: you watch it. Before he got there, Davidson was pitiful.

631
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: The Wildcats had six straight seasons with two wins or fewer.

632
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 1: They were winless in conference play for the previous five seasons.

633
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: He comes in there in year one, and this is

634
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: critical for this Rice play. Year one gets him to

635
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: six and five. Then came three straight FCS playoff appearances.

636
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: In his seven years with Davidson, his teams led the

637
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: country and rushing six times. That's how innovative he is

638
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: with what he does out of the shotgun and how

639
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: he gets people on the perimeter and just running around

640
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 1: through by everybody.

641
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: On the defense.

642
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,959
Speaker 1: They targeted him early in this coaching carousel. In this cycle,

643
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:49,959
Speaker 1: they got him in November. It allowed him to hit

644
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 1: the ground running. In terms of high school recruiting, he

645
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: recruited the sixth best class in the AAC, which may

646
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: not sound amazing, but at Rice, given their academic standards

647
00:30:58,480 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: for those non the no RICE is one of the

648
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: best academic institutions in the country, certainly in Texas, so

649
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: that can sometimes be a hurdle. Well, having the sixth

650
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: best class in the AAC, that's the second best class

651
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: out of the high school ranks in the past decade

652
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: for Rice, so the talent and fusion coming there.

653
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 3: He went smaller on.

654
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: The transfer class, but he added two quality starters who

655
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: could give them some heft on the defensive line and

656
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 1: a potential answer in this quarterback room in Lucas Sheerhorn.

657
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 1: He comes in from Kansas State. What did kannsaw do?

658
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 1: They ran at least option principles in terms of some

659
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: of their looks. So he's someone who's clearly athletic enough

660
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: and has the repetition and the time in the offense

661
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: with the gibbs, with the polls, with the pitches to

662
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 1: be able to come in and hit the ground running.

663
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 1: Here Drew DeVillier and Chase Jenkins also in that quarterback room.

664
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: Jenkins is somebody who's got the speed and the savvy

665
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 1: to run this spread attack. I'm not necessarily enamored with

666
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: one quarterback in particular, but I like what they have

667
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: in this quarterback room. Now, let's get into the schedule.

668
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 1: Last year they went four to eight, but they also

669
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 1: had three one possession losses, so they were on the

670
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 1: cusp of basically doing and living up to expectations last season.

671
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: They have six games at least on this schedule that

672
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: I circle right now that they could win. They're going

673
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: to be a sizeable favorite over Prairie View A and M.

674
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: That should be a dub short favorite at home against

675
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: UAB and against FAU and then a short dog at

676
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: Charlotte home against Yukon home against North Texas. When you

677
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: run the ball, when you possess the football, when you

678
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: dominate the turnover battle, that's what Scott Abel teams do.

679
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: You have a chance not only to win all the

680
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: games you're supposed to win, but you can also pull

681
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 1: an upset or two by shrinking those games down. And

682
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: I think with the current landscape of college football there's

683
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: a lot of turnover. There's clearly the coaching turnover. That

684
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: used to be a big detriment and that's why coaches

685
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: used to get three or four years to get things

686
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: going in the right direction. But now every single season

687
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: it's free agency. Every single roster has fifty percent or

688
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: more turnover. And it's how good are your coaches at

689
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: basically installing and making things simple and teaching it to

690
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: your players, and then do you have the stars at

691
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: the key positions in your offense and defense to make

692
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: it happen. I think one of these quarterbacks is going

693
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: to pop, and I think the Rice is an interesting

694
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: option for a team that's going to fly way under

695
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: the radar because they're going to the FCS ranks for

696
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 1: a coach. They're coming off a feurig and eight campaign

697
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: of these guys are going to stink. There is a

698
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: reason why sportsbooks are prohibitively pricing this over in minus

699
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: one sixty. That's their way of just swatting people away.

700
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: We don't want to see this ticket come up to

701
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: the window. What are your thoughts on the rice Als

702
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: being feisty, maybe fighting closer to Bowl eligibility in year

703
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: one under Scott Able.

704
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 4: Great higher, dynamic higher, and a real under the radar higher. Remember,

705
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 4: Scott Abel did all of the things that he had

706
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 4: done with the successful rush record setting rushing offenses in

707
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 4: the non scholarship FCS Pioneer Football League, and so none

708
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 4: of those athletes that were playing for the Wildcats were

709
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 4: receiving tuition money to be there.

710
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 3: They were paying their own way. So he was.

711
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 4: Already up against it recruiting athletes that were not receiving

712
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 4: scholarships to be there. Scott Abel has a real consistency

713
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 4: for winning at academically advanced programs. Right He's used to

714
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 4: coaching at schools that are more challenging to get into.

715
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 4: That put more of a stress on academics, and that

716
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 4: is Rice, quintessential Rice. That is exactly the type of

717
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 4: person that he's going to recruit there. He's going to

718
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: stress the academics and he's going to get people that

719
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 4: are really going.

720
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: To buy into the system that he wants to run.

721
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 4: I think that Rice is a real interesting case study

722
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 4: because you don't have any film on what these guys

723
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 4: are going to do and the wrinkles that he ran

724
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 4: at Davidson with the inverted triple option with potentially four

725
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 4: possible ball carriers on any one play. He was not

726
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 4: afraid to run a traditional inverted triple, but he'd also

727
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 4: run some receiver carrying the ball and they would just

728
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 4: have some different looks with some of the different motions

729
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 4: and some of the quirky stuff that he was really

730
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 4: able to put his fingerprint on with that offense. You

731
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 4: don't have any film on that yet. So some of

732
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 4: these teams are really going to have a tough time

733
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 4: in the early part of the schedule with scouting Rice.

734
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm.

735
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 4: Immediately looking at a fifteen and a half sixteen and

736
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 4: a half point number when they visit Louisiana to open

737
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 4: the season. I mean, that's going to be one of

738
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 4: those games where, like you had mentioned, they can possess

739
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 4: the football, stay on the field on third and short,

740
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 4: which they did very well at Davidson, can really shrink

741
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:21,479
Speaker 4: those games and give that.

742
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 3: Team a chance to be competitively.

743
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 4: I think that, you know, you look at the loss

744
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 4: of a quarterback like EJ. Warner, who has played predominantly

745
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 4: pretty well everywhere he's gone, but it's just a different

746
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 4: system and you need a different athlete with a different

747
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 4: skill set, and so that's kind of a It is

748
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 4: a loss, but it's not as big of a loss,

749
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 4: and it's easily absorbed because they're going to run a

750
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 4: different system anyway, EJ would not have been effected. Running

751
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 4: back position should be short up just fine. I think

752
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 4: they'll have some personnel along the offensive line in order

753
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 4: to run that system as long as they can get

754
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 4: enough work and enough repetition in it. But I do

755
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 4: look at the schedule, and you know, I wouldn't be

756
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: surprised if they were to defeat a team like Louisiana

757
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 4: in the opener. Prairie view is that they should firmly defeat,

758
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 4: and they do take FCS competition very seriously. They typically

759
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 4: are a team that will blow out those local Texas

760
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 4: FCS squads. They winnable games at Charlotte posting Florida Atlantic

761
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 4: posting Yukon. Yukon's a feisty bunch and they're a proud group,

762
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 4: and they do play pretty well, and I think Yukon

763
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 4: can pile up the wins the season, But certainly not

764
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 4: an unattainable situation for Rice. Not unwinnable at home by

765
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 4: any means. Posting UAB North Texas. I mean, we really

766
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 4: may not know exactly what they're going to be defensively,

767
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 4: and by that point in the season, everyone might run

768
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 4: through North Texas defensively, So it could be a good

769
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 4: situational matchup for Rice. And then that last game of

770
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 4: the season at South Florida. How many years have we

771
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,359
Speaker 4: seen South Florida compete with teams like Alabama and then

772
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 4: they throw up complete stinkers and they're losing games that

773
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 4: they absolutely have no business losing. And so that could

774
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 4: be another situation where I just look at Rice and

775
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 4: they've got this new offense with not a lot of

776
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 4: footage and not a lot of people, We're going to

777
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 4: know exactly what they're doing, and they're going to have

778
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 4: a lot of shots on goal. They're going to have

779
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 4: a lot of opportunities to fire away the ammunition. And

780
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 4: I think that it's going to be one of those

781
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 4: seasons where, yeah, they may not sniff a Bowl game,

782
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 4: but they're building. They're setting the foundation for a program

783
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 4: that could start to build their way into that middle

784
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 4: tier of the American Three and a half wins seems light.

785
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 4: In my preseason research, I was thinking that this total

786
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 4: would come out at four four and a half. I

787
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,760
Speaker 4: value a full win at about one hundred and ten cents.

788
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 4: I think it's sixty cents or so for half a win,

789
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 4: and so the true number on this should probably be about.

790
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 3: Minus two to twenty.

791
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, minus one sixty minus one sixty five, I

792
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 4: think this is play go over the three and a half.

793
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're looking for a poor man's Vandy or

794
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. You watch those games last year. You can

795
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: see it in the face of the competition, particularly the

796
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 1: Alabama game. You know, Malchi Moore was just throwing a

797
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 1: fit at the end of the game because they just

798
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: played keep away. It's like, uh, we're in a third

799
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 1: and four, it's managed well. If we don't get it

800
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 1: by a yard, we're going to go for it on

801
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: fourth down, and we're going to run some kind of

802
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: option or replay or quarterback power that's going to be

803
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: really difficult to stop in a phone booth. That is

804
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 1: what Rice is going to bring to the table to

805
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: be able to shrink those games down. So yeah, I

806
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 1: just view this as it's mispriced by a full game

807
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 1: my projection would have had at four and a half,

808
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: and then it becomes more of a stay away because

809
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 1: I need them to win those games, you know, probably

810
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 1: one or two, even at home. They still have to

811
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: have an upset. They're going to be a dog to

812
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: a team like Yukon that you mentioned. But all of

813
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: a sudden, I think the math starts working for me

814
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 1: in terms of potential wins when it's sitting at three

815
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 1: and a half. All right, now it is time to

816
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: bookends the end of this episode with some futures. You're

817
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 1: going with Buffalo to win the Mac at eight to one.

818
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: This is interesting to me because I was a big

819
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: Pete Limbau guy. I talked about him a lot last year.

820
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 1: They were able to do so much with that defense

821
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: that was just headlined by arguably the best duo of

822
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: G five linebackers in the entire country. Now, they lost Dolac,

823
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: but they bring back Red Murdoch and offensively they have

824
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: to improve. So walk me through a little bit what

825
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: you're envisioning in a MAC that should be pretty wide

826
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: open when you look at a lot of the traditional powers,

827
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: there's a kraken there for a team to wiggle their

828
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: way through and to potentially win a MAC title that

829
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: didn't necessarily you know, have themselves knocking on the door

830
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: in the past few seasons.

831
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 4: There is, and specifically on the defense, I think you've

832
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 4: just seen the returning production at all three levels. While

833
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 4: they do lose Dolac, and Dolac was a really dynamic

834
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 4: Sean Dolac was a dynamic linebacker for them, but they

835
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: replace him with four players that had some pretty significant

836
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 4: time last year, and the unit overall grades out pretty well.

837
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 4: I think that well, Dolac will be a loss, I

838
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 4: think they'll be okay overall at the position, especially when

839
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 4: you get into the conference schedule. Almost everybody who took

840
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 4: a snap in the secondary is returning. They have some

841
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 4: real continuity in the secondary for the first time a while,

842
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 4: and even the defensive line, while they didn't create a

843
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 4: tremendous amount of havoc overall. Kobe Stewart comes back. He

844
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 4: had ten sacks last year, plenty of quarterback hurries and

845
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 4: just created some havoc in the backfield. And I think

846
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 4: at the detackle position they'll be okay as well with

847
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 4: just the returning people that they have that have just

848
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 4: been naturally recruited. Not even a lot of wild factor

849
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 4: in the portal, but just players that they've recruited and

850
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 4: have been having a taste of it through their red

851
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 4: shirt freshman or red shirt sophomore year. Now you're three

852
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 4: years into the program. Time for those people to step up.

853
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 4: I really like the schedule. We'll get into that a

854
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 4: little bit here, but when you look at the max schedule,

855
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 4: first of all, their non conference schedule is such to

856
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 4: where I don't think Buffalo is going to get too

857
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 4: tremendously beat up. They travel to Minnesota in week one,

858
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 4: and then they've got FCS Saint Francis, Troy, and University

859
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 4: Connecticut all at home in the non con But if

860
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 4: we're just going to isolate mac play, what I can

861
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 4: in vision for the University of Buffalo is they could

862
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 4: easily get off to a six and oh start in

863
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 4: league play. They've got Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Massachusetts, Akron,

864
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 4: a descending and kind of rebuilding Bowling Green, and then

865
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 4: kind of a mixed bag of Central Michigan, who I

866
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 4: think did make a really really good hire hiring the

867
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 4: offensive line coach from Army, A couple favorable bye weeks

868
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,280
Speaker 4: here where they get bye week halfway through the season,

869
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 4: then they've got three conference polls that should be winnable games.

870
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 4: Then they get another buy and they kind of get

871
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 4: to regroup a second time before that final push in

872
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 4: the back forth of the schedule. Buffalo could very easily

873
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 4: be six and zero in league play, and they just

874
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 4: they would need a win in their last two, of

875
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 4: which they're hosting weekday games against Miami of Ohio and

876
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 4: Ohio University for a chance to kind of move into

877
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 4: that position and get into that second slot in Detroit.

878
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 4: I think they have just as good of a chance

879
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 4: as anybody to have a say in what happens in

880
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 4: the Mid American Conference and position themselves to to not

881
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 4: need a lot to happen, or maybe even dare I

882
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 4: say control in the driver's seat, have the control over

883
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 4: the MAC Championship berth in their hands. I look at

884
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 4: the other teams that are slighted ahead of them in

885
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 4: the future's menu. Toledo I think will be a strong

886
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 4: MAC team this season, but not necessarily having the separation

887
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 4: from the pack that everybody else has. While Ohio still

888
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 4: does have rock solid personnel at the quarterback and running

889
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 4: back position, they're losing some personnel defensively, they're losing their staff,

890
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 4: and there's just going to be a little bit of

891
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 4: transitional finding your footing can common into just replacing your

892
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 4: entire staff. And then Miami of Ohio, they kind of

893
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 4: do the same thing every year. Where they are typically

894
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 4: known to junk their non conference, they really focus on

895
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,399
Speaker 4: league play. But Miami has some pieces that they're trying

896
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 4: to replace as well, although they do bring in Daikwon

897
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 4: Finn and he'll be a little bit more dynamic. They

898
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 4: lose running backs, they lose receiving personnel, they lose defenders,

899
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 4: and so I don't necessarily think that at the spots

900
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 4: that you can play Buffalo low. It's priced accordingly based

901
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 4: on the talent. One thing I love about Pete Lombo

902
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 4: is he really focuses on special teams, and you just

903
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 4: know year over year the special teams under Pete Lombo

904
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 4: is really going to improve. They're as low as plus

905
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 4: four hundred, plus four twenty, even one book at plus

906
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 4: three ninety. So if you go to a widely available

907
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 4: shop where you can still find a plus seven to fifty,

908
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 4: there's still tremendous value in this Bulls team that has

909
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 4: a lot of returning personnel. Buffalo plus seven fifty.

910
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 3: I like it, all right.

911
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: I teased it at the opening that I was going

912
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: to get a long shot to win the Heisman Trophy,

913
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: something fun for the offseason, a little bit of couch change.

914
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 1: When I saw this number, I wanted one hundred and

915
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: twenty five to one. It's actually two hundred to one

916
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: on the market Mark Gronowski. As I mentioned earlier, the

917
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 1: FCS transfer up to Iowa to win the Heisman Trophy.

918
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 1: And I'm going to do a bit of table setting

919
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 1: here because I can already feel people rolling their eyes.

920
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 1: Oh and Iowa quarterback. Listen, there's been two Iowa quarterback

921
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 1: runner ups in the last let's call it fifth the

922
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 1: years eighty five, two thousand and two. I think he's

923
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: going to be somebody who has all the right components,

924
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 1: because there's been a change philosophically in Heisman voters. What

925
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: used to be in the seventies, eighties, and nineties. All

926
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: the voters were enamored with teams and players that were

927
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,479
Speaker 1: buying for the national championship. If you were, you didn't

928
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 1: necessarily need to be in a position to finish number

929
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 1: one or once we got to the BCS, to play

930
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 1: for a national championship, but he had to be top five,

931
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: top six, and naturally, as we've gone and that playoff

932
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,360
Speaker 1: has expanded from four, we saw winners like Lamar Jackson

933
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: who did not make the playoff, Caleb Williams at USC,

934
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 1: Jane Daniels. They were all within striking distance at some

935
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 1: point during those campaigns, and they had enough credibility from

936
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 1: that to then say, look at these huge numbers that

937
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: I'm putting out now that the field has tripled from

938
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: four to twelve. My contention before last season was that

939
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 1: the pool of candidates was going to grow. And not

940
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: only did we see Travis Hunter win from a three

941
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,439
Speaker 1: loss team team, but five of the top six vote

942
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: gutters in the Heisman race last year came from programs

943
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: that headed into bowl season outside of the College Ball

944
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,760
Speaker 1: Playoff rankings top eight. That was the first time something

945
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 1: like that had happened since the Heis And race in

946
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,720
Speaker 1: two thousand and seven. There's a ton of crazy upset.

947
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: There was new faces in the mix. So I think

948
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,399
Speaker 1: this is going to be the new norm where there's

949
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: at least candidates that are going to be viable that

950
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: even five or six years ago would have been shut

951
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 1: out from consideration because hey, you're not going to be

952
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:29,919
Speaker 1: a top five team. I don't think I was going

953
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: to be a top five team. But I think that

954
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:33,399
Speaker 1: they're going to be a player in the Big ten

955
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: race and be nationally ranked and have an opportunity to

956
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 1: be in that conversation for one of the last two

957
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 1: at large bids to get in. And if that is

958
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 1: the case, and his offensive staff is able to feature

959
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 1: him in the way that I think that they can,

960
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: you could see expectations work in his favor. What's interesting

961
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: is with like Garrett Nasmeyer, for instance, he is a

962
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,760
Speaker 1: top five consensus Heisman candidate coming in, he is priced

963
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 1: in a way that it doesn't make sense to tie

964
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 1: up your money for five months, NUS, it's through no

965
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: fault of his own. He is going to be compared

966
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 1: statistically to Jane Daniels, who just won, you know, two

967
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 1: years ago at LSU at the same position. That's going

968
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 1: to hurt him in terms of what he can do

969
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 1: to overtake that. Iowa. It's beyond below the floor in

970
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: terms of where this bar is. All he has to

971
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: do is step over it. And Tim Lester has been

972
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 1: able to unleash a quarterback. We remember Caleb Elbe at

973
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: Western Michigan. That guy had fifty one touchdowns in nineteen games.

974
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: He was a bit of a dual threat. He had

975
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: forty one passing touchdowns. He sprinkled in ten rushing touchdowns.

976
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 1: I'm telling you just go to YouTube and watch Gronowski

977
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 1: and what he did in the running game at South

978
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 1: Dakota State. He's a long strider. When he got to

979
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 1: full speed, he was running away from defensive backs. And

980
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, this schedule is as ideal it can

981
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 1: get for a big ten or SEC candidate because there's

982
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 1: just not a vicious gauntlet. There's not a three game

983
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:58,240
Speaker 1: stretch where you have to worry about him really getting

984
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: banged up. There's no Ohio State on the menu, and

985
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: then those opportunities, those huge marquee games at home against

986
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 1: Penn State, at home against Oregon, you getting upset there

987
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 1: within potentially a stat friendly system by comparison to what

988
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: Iowa used to have. All of a sudden, I think

989
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 1: he is really interesting at two hundred to one, and

990
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 1: I don't think it hurts. It's a human interest, you know, award,

991
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: the character, the off field stuff. It can matter a

992
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: little bit. It certainly can help in terms of elevating

993
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: somebody who may be on equal footing to another candidate.

994
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 1: His rags to Rich's story, to go from FCS, to

995
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: go from Brookings, South Dakota to Manhattan for the you know,

996
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 1: the Heisman presentation that is made for TV kind of

997
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 1: you know, absolute fodder. And when you also get the

998
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: fact that he's a borderline genius. He's already earned a

999
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,879
Speaker 1: master's in engineering. Like I said, one hundred and twenty

1000
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 1: five to one, I was interested. Two hundred and one,

1001
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 1: I'm pulling the trigger. I think he's one of the

1002
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:54,280
Speaker 1: most interesting players from a long shot perspective on the board.

1003
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,439
Speaker 1: I know it's a lot to be able to get

1004
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 1: there in terms of an IOWA player making it to

1005
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: York for this presentation. But what are your thoughts on

1006
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 1: Gronowski elevating the entire program and being rewarded for it

1007
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 1: at season's end.

1008
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 4: I think Iowa is really trying to change the nuclear

1009
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 4: makeup of their team, right. They don't want to.

1010
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 3: Win these games seventeen to seven anymore.

1011
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 4: They're really focusing on having a much more dynamic offense.

1012
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 4: It's two hundred to one for a reason, but it's

1013
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 4: a two hundred to one that this guy's an absolute

1014
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 4: laser home run hit that Iowa can really win a

1015
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 4: lot of the games that they should win, which really

1016
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 4: goes hand in hand with that over seven and a

1017
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 4: half they we discussed. Two hundred to one is really

1018
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 4: not a lot that you have to risk in order

1019
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 4: to have some high upside. Could be in some pretty

1020
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 4: good position in that wage. You're here about six seven

1021
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 4: games into the season. You'll know if it has legs.

1022
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 1: That'll do it. For tonight's episode, thanks again for joining us.

1023
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,320
Speaker 1: Reminder that up next we're gonna have Stucky, Yes, Stucky

1024
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 1: back in the Captain's chair. He's going to be cutting

1025
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: up with Alex Kaloj from Action Networks Analytics department, and

1026
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 1: then Colin and I are going to return next week

1027
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 1: to talk Omaha, Omaha, Omaha. The College World series will

1028
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 1: be set. We'll be talking about it on Wednesday, so

1029
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: make sure to update your podcast feed. Don't want to

1030
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 1: miss that as soon as it drops. As always, five

1031
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 1: star reviews and ratings wherever you've listened to the pod

1032
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 1: are greatly appreciated thanks to my co host Josh Nunn

1033
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 1: and our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy. I'm your host, Mike Calabres.

1034
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets as always, and we'll

1035
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 1: see you back here next time at the Big Bets

1036
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:20,280
Speaker 1: on Gampus podcast.

1037
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1038
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1039
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler