WEBVTT - The Markets, Ukraine, Cyberthreats, And Supply Risks 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.479 called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.520 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Read on this screen 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.520 here on this Monday morning. We've got rising interest rates, 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:28.680 we've got a slowing economy. Where do you put your 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.360 money to work? In that type of backdrop, let's check 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:33.920 in with Katie Nixon. She's a c IO of wealth 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:38.400 management at Northern Trust. That is a big, big account 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:40.159 for me back in the day when I was in analyst, 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:42.600 when I went to Chicago, had to check in with 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:44.440 the good friends of Northern Trust, had to get their 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:46.240 I I vote back in the day, and I'm proud 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:49.520 to report today always did. Okay, what's the I I vote. 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:54.000 It's the Institutional Investor magazine. Yes, that benchmark your total 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:57.160 wealth in the total worth in the world. And so 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:00.000 in Chicago it was Northern Trust plus a couple of others. 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:02.600 All right, Katie, thanks so much for joining us. Here. 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:06.399 What's an investor to do here? In a rising interest 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:12.320 rate environment, slowing growth economy, it seems like a tough backdrop. Well, 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:16.480 good morning, and yes, a very difficult period certainly for investors, 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:19.119 as all periods of transition are. And you noted we're 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.760 in a period of transition related to some of the 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:26.319 macro outlook. We have slowing growth UM our perspectives will 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:28.920 also have slowing inflation as we get towards the middle 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.520 and the later part of this year. But we're also 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:35.039 wanted very important transition with respect monetary policy, going from 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.160 alter easy to less so UM. But what we would 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:42.240 characterize it as UM tighter, not tight. We still believe 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.160 that conditions are going to be at the end of 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:48.200 the day still quite accomminative UM, mainly because we don't 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:49.440 think the Fed is going to be able to go 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.200 through with all the rate hikes that are now built 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:57.279 into built into market expectations. Do days then, like uh, 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:01.680 well this morning or Friday presented buying opportunity because clearly 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:05.360 this sell off is on the back of geopolitical risk. Well, 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.320 I mean, I think if you look historically, what you 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:11.600 see as periods of high volatility typically are outside of recessions, 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:15.200 good time a good time to buy. What I would 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:16.600 say though, when it kind of goes back to one 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:21.160 of the comments made earlier about cash. You know, investors 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:23.200 right now need to go back to their plan and 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:25.560 make sure that their plan is right, that it's aligned 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.080 with their financial goals, that they have the liquidity, that 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.840 they have cash on hand to fund their goals during 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.960 periods of volatility. And right now we see volatility in 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:36.160 both the stock and the bond market, so you don't 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:38.799 want to be forced to sell your investment grade bonds, 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:42.200 your muni bonds, or your equities under durest. So it's 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.120 pretty safe to say it's a good strategy to have, 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.040 you know, a year of spending sitting in cash. Sometimes 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.160 it's an expensive insurance policy, certainly with zero interest rates 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.320 and an expensive insurance policy, but it's worth it during 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:56.400 periods like this when you can draw down your cash 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.160 and avoid having to sell other assets under durest. So 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:02.160 my best advice right now is go back to your plan, 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:04.200 make sure you have the cash that you might need 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.600 over the next year, because we're certainly going to be 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:09.560 in for a period of volatility here. This is becoming 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:13.720 consensus cash went from cash to king right as at 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.040 my wad of cash Paul. Paul has always been a 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:20.800 bullish cash. But but honestly, Katie, we've seen, um, you know, 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:26.280 cash was not favored last year, and it seems that now, 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:29.440 I mean you're talking about it. Golden Sacks I mentioned 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:35.160 earlier is recommending investors go to a substantial portion of cash. So, um, 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:38.520 it seems like the right time. Well, I would say 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:40.640 we always give that advice. Though. We have a goal 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:44.880 based framework where we specifically align clients financial goals with 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:48.440 assets and strategies, So we always recommend having a year 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:51.720 of cash um in portfolios. But I would say, though, 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:54.360 is you know, it's been a tough call for tactical 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.080 investors with respect to cash because you're you know, you're 0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:00.400 getting zero um interest rates. You know, with high level inflation, 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.240 you're getting a deeply negative real rate. So for tactical 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:07.120 investors or shorter term time horizons that aren't aligned against goals, 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:11.480 it's been very difficult and challenging to hold cash. All right, 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:13.040 So if I'm not in cash, I want to be 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:15.480 in equities. I have the courage to be in equities. 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:19.320 As Tom King would say, am I looking at the 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:22.440 big growth names that have been so good for so long. 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.000 I'm thinking more than a decade? Really, Uh, you know, 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:27.640 the Damazons and the Apples have delivered for shareholders. Or 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:31.240 do I stick with that cyclical trade um that's worked 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:33.599 so well over the past couple of years. You know, 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:36.240 I would say both, um, And here's the reason. So 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:40.520 we we certainly see economic growth being above trend um 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.039 for this year, So that would suggest leaning into some 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:47.880 of those cyclical areas, including European stocks that have high leverage, 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.880 high exposure to global growth. That's said, though, think about 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:55.760 the forward forecast going into and beyond. Growth is going 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:58.800 to come off the boil, and when growth balls you 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:01.479 tend or or is the very slow and sluggish you 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:04.599 tend to see growth stocks outperform. So I would say, 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.280 don't try to time the turn in the cycle. You 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.880 want to own both and if you can add an 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:13.240 additional layer of sort of quality over both your growth 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:15.320 and value stocks, I think those are the kinds of 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.120 companies that will be able to really serve you well 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.839 during this period of excessive volatility and probably slower growth 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:23.920 going forward. You just want to finally wrap up your 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:25.440 thoughts on the FED because you said you don't think 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:26.800 they're going to be able to go through with the 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.360 what um, four or five rate hikes and then reducing 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:31.640 the balance sheet. What do you think is going to 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:34.680 flip the Fed? Well, I mean, I think the markets 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:38.360 right now piking in somewhere between five and seven rate hikes. UM. 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:41.279 We think that's way too aggressive given given our outlook 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:43.440 for where the economy is going and really what the 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.039 economy is going to look like, um and the next uh, 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:48.880 you know, once we get past sort of the spring 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.160 in early summer, and I would say, you know, the 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:55.160 Fed may prefer they want to raise rates and start normalizing, 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:57.520 but the constraint is going to be the YEO curve, 0:05:57.600 --> 0:05:59.920 and what we see right now is starty basis point. 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:02.200 The market is not giving the Feed a lot of 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.040 wiggle room here to raise rates five to seven times. 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:07.800 We think maybe the Fed's going to go and March. 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:10.919 That's that's a fet a complete could be fifty fifty 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:13.159 basis points. We hope they do. That will give a 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.599 strong message to the market that they're they're trying to 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:18.520 catch up, and then they may go a couple more times. 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.560 But We certainly don't think five to seven is in 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:22.640 the cards. All right, Katie, thank you so much for 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.960 joining us. Always appreciate getting your thoughts. Katie Nixon, ce 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:29.640 I O of Walth Management at Northern Trust, giving our 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:31.719 thoughts on these markets. Again, we have got a sell 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:39.159 off in the markets right today. In the last two years, 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:41.880 we've all been or many of us, many of us 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:45.880 have been working from home, learning from home. That's putting 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:48.760 a lot of data out there in the cloud. It's 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:52.920 putting it outside of the corporate offices, which raises all 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:56.560 kinds of cybersecurity issues. Let's get a handle on how 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:00.800 that's developing here, David Brittain, Global Strategy, were identity and 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:07.080 fraud from the firm experience at the ESPN Trades in London. Uh, David, 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.440 thanks much for joining us here. What have you guys 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:14.960 noticed from your clients in terms of data security, cyber fraud, 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.880 all those issues. How have they trended over the past 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:21.080 couple of years. Yeah? Thanks, it's a well, first of all, 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:22.640 it's a pleasure to be with you guys again and 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.200 to share a little bit of the thoughts that we've gotten. 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:27.400 Maybe for a little bit of context, are The group 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:30.360 that I work within where I leave strategy is the 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:33.000 identity and fraud group within Experience, as you rightly pointed out, 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.480 which we get access to a lot of interesting insights. 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:40.680 Uh And and with this rush to digital, unfortunately, the 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:43.760 digital progress has caused real rush to digital fraud as 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.280 well in fraud vulnerability. And so we we put out 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:48.600 a number of different predictions where we think fraud is 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.160 moving this year. It includes areas like we believe that 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.320 you know, we've all been hearing about ransomware. We think 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:57.600 ransomware a tax is going to increase going forward. Um, 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.160 and the and the crime that occurs there's not us 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:03.040 the ransom payout, that's the one that everybody is seemingly 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:06.240 most concerned about. But there's also data theft issues there 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:09.760 When those procesters get in and start to disrupt the networks, 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.240 there's a disruption to business. And then there's data theft 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:14.640 and compromise, which ultimately leads to a loss of trust. 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:16.120 So that's one thing that I think businesses need to 0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:19.320 be increasingly aware of coming into the new year. How 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.040 do we the next one is David. First of all, 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:25.600 Nathan's mom works for you, and UH, we heard that 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.120 Nathan's mom works from home a lot of time. So 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:33.199 you have workers at home. Are you confident in UM 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:37.480 your ability to keep things safe even as not all 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:41.160 of your employees are in the office. You know, it's 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.040 we We absolutely embrace what we call a security first 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:47.880 philosophy here at Experience, and we we ensure that the people, 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.640 the systems, and the processes are under a constant review 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:55.199 UH to ensure that they maintain we maintain a best 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.760 in class security posture, and we spent a lot of 0:08:57.760 --> 0:08:59.560 time and energy on that. Not really the area of 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:03.120 MYFA specifically. I'm more focused on some of the solutions, 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:05.920 the data, the solutions and technologies we offer to the market, 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:09.520 and that's where we see things like along, I didn't 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.560 really mean your ability to to stay safe. I meant 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:14.360 all of us, you know, because we're all doing that 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:18.560 right now, David Um not being Paul but or Nathan, 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:22.479 but everyone else seems is working from home and UM 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:27.320 there haven't been any massive catastrophes yet. Yeah. I think 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:29.559 it speaks to the work that had been done leading 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:33.400 up to this, the trends around what businesses were investing 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.920 in to be able to enter and maintain that security, 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:39.360 the practices that were being laid out, they had to 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:42.040 be accelerated. We advanced the agenda of what it meant 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:44.920 to be digital very quickly over the course of two years, 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.400 probably ten years in advance and when they thought they 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:50.160 may need them. Um and and so there's a number 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.160 of different things. And for consumers themselves, Uh, there are 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.040 a couple of other things to consider. One is around 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.000 the evolution of the crypto and the crypto scams that 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:02.920 are happening. There's reportedly half a billion dollars in losses 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:06.400 recorded last year on crypto payment scams, and that goes 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.760 to uh, sort of a bit appropriate to the topic today, 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:14.040 appropriate for Valentine's Days, are on the romance scams, where 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.240 we've seen a lot of an increase over the last year, 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.800 specifically in the vulnerability and as you mentioned, we're all 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:23.480 working from home, we're all sort of isolated during the 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:26.560 pandemic and there's a need to reach out, and so 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.640 romance scams were it was the most profitable year for 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:33.160 romance scams last year in the market. Yeah, yeah, interesting. 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:34.880 All right, David, too short a time. We're gonna get 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:36.600 you back on. We'll chat. I want to talk about 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:41.360 zel scams with David. Yes, and honestly about the the 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:47.200 the the solutions they offer consumers. You know, I guess 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:49.960 the question here is a micron as it eases here 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.880 in many parts of the country, particularly here in New York, 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.679 it's the infection rate is extraordinarily low, kind of pre 0:10:56.280 --> 0:11:00.200 um kind of omicron levels. The question once again end 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:04.040 for employers turns back to how do I get people 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:05.800 back to work? Do I want to get people back 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:07.920 to work? Do people want to come back to the 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:11.280 office per se? Uh? It continues to be an issue 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.760 for Corporate America. John Fish, he's a CEO and chairman 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.959 of Suffolk Construction Company. John, thanks so much for joining 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:22.160 us here. What's your take of how this might normalize? 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:24.880 I e. Will people come back to the office, will 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.679 they work from home? Will they hybrid? What's your take? Well, 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:30.080 Matt and Paul, it's a pleasure to be with you 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:31.640 this morning. I want to thank you very much. I 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:34.760 do believe it's not if, but it's when. I think 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:37.439 most people want to return to the work once they 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:39.360 feel safe. So I think what we need to be 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.079 doing is a society is really following the data all 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:44.920 along and right now, I think we really are transitioning 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.200 really from a pandemic to an endemic, and we can 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.520 see that through the numbers. So my sense right now, 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:52.480 the average office is about forty full. I think by 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.400 the springtime we're gonna be seeing eight and hopefully by 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:58.400 the summertime end of the sum we're seeing about But 0:11:58.480 --> 0:11:59.559 I think at the end of the day, I think 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:02.600 that's a direct we're going in right now. I gotta 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.000 push back against that. Um, if I were allowed to 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:06.880 work from home, I would never want to come back 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:09.679 to the office because I'd be working from home in Montana. 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:12.840 You know I would. But now you're gonna be in 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:16.360 Westchester community, and I love coming here, so don't get 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:20.000 me wrong. UM, And I love Westchester and I love 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:23.200 Suffolk County. I don't know where you are, John, but UM, 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.560 I'm guessing Boston. I think I think most people who 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.120 can are going to move are the kids, let's say, 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.440 are going to move to someplace that's not New York 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.880 prices and work for a place that is New York salary. UM, 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:40.720 I don't know, Uh, I don't know. I guess the 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:44.240 answer and we'll find out. But what are you hearing 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:47.560 from business leaders as far as getting people back in. 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.920 You know, I think fundamentally in the United States today, 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.320 in order for us to be competitive globally, we need 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.920 that energy, We need that cultural impetus to drive our 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.760 successes at our companies right now. And we saw the 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:04.599 experiment with education. Education really was a failed experiment. I 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:08.559 don't think the kids retained or learned much during the 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.840 last eighteen months during this virus itself. And also the 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:13.839 impact and we talk about the cities. When you think 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:17.920 about service oriented type of jobs that are really our economy, 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:20.800 they basically shut down in our city areas and people 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.400 the white college jobs were able to work remotely. But 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.040 at the end of the day, if we don't have 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.880 thriving cities, we're not going to have a strong economy 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:31.160 of the overall. And lastly, I would say this way 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:34.520 is that when you think about competitive edge, I've never 0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:36.839 heard of anybody really having been able to build a 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:41.200 culture remotely, or mentor remotely, or provide a sense of 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:45.800 leadership remotely. And probably most how do people get promoted remotely? 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:49.400 And I'm not saying people cannot work remotely, but I'm saying, 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.840 generally speaking, in order for this our society that continue 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:58.040 going forward in a productive, equal way. We need our 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.760 cities and our offices to come back to full health. 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:02.679 You know, I see a lot of you know on 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.280 TV and things. When I see you know, stories about 0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:06.880 coming back to the office. I see a lot of 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:10.760 officers have the plastic dividers up between deaths. Have you 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:12.240 seen that around? What? What do you what are you 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.480 seeing in some of your building, some of your clients? 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.040 You know? What's really about is I think over the 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.520 last ten years is we know cities have grown quite 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:21.480 a bit old temper cent over the last ten years, 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:23.960 and this whole office space grew quite a bit and 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.120 it became very expensive. So what people did is they 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.440 took of the average squift foot allocation for a person 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.120 from probably about a hundred and seventy five down to 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:35.680 some even went below a hundred square feet. I think 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.440 what we're gonna see now with the omicrone virus subsiding, 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.920 I think people coming back to work and that squift 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.480 footage figure is probably gonna move back to that one 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.960 fifty to two square foot range. So at the end 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.120 of the day, in the next two or three years, 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:51.000 I do think the office market will move back to 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:55.040 where it originally was. It will set this resiliency and 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:56.720 I think people will want to come back to work 0:14:56.720 --> 0:15:01.040 with each other. I wonder about travel between you know, 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:05.880 along the Eastern Seaboard. You are obviously, um we hear 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.960 a little Boston there, and I think you're rated one 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:12.560 of the one most important people in Boston one hundred 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.720 most influential people in Boston by Boston Magazine. You also 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.960 sit on the executive committee of the Real Estate Board 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:22.920 of New York, so you're up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:25.800 Is the mobility what you want to see right now? 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:28.680 You know it's again I'm gonna go back to this 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.440 issue of safety going to the airport's right now. I 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.040 think you look at their protocols have been put in place, 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:36.960 and I believe it is safe for people to travel today, 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.000 especially on your lines. You take a look at the 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.280 how to improve the hb A system on these build planes. 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.480 It's never been as strong as it has been right now. 0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:46.040 But at the end of the day, what we are 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:49.680 seeing is dealing with an endemic. Right now. The numbers 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.040 in the data show the things the virus is subsiding, 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:55.680 and we are getting close hopefully to what we call 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:57.640 herd immunity. At the end of the day, if we 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:00.320 can achieve that, I think we're all back in business. 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:01.560 I think at the end of the day, in a 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:05.640 competitive society, especially in globalization, we have to be with 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.160 each other. Totally agree. I just want to wonder what 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.600 you want to see beyond it. I mean, Paul and 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:15.320 I were done with the pandemic, so what's next to me? 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:17.760 I think in a sense of normalcy, I think what 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:19.800 people want to be they want to be with their 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.440 families with a sense of confidence and comfort, they want 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:24.720 to be with their work is in work and having 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.320 that social experience. At the end of the day, we 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:30.160 all think about building up personally and professional balance sheets. 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.600 We can't build that personal balance sheet or our professional 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.640 balance sheet working remotely in isolation. And I think the 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:41.760 whole issue of the school experience naturally prove that out. Hey, John, 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:44.160 thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting some 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:47.240 of your time here, John Fish, CEO and chairman of 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:49.600 Suffol Construction Company, getting a little sense of kind of 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:54.640 what the new normal might look like for back to work. Um, 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:57.680 you know, it's it's interesting here in New York city. 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:02.480 You cannot get an apartment. There's not any vacancies for apartments. 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:06.200 But I don't know where the do the kids still 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:08.320 go to hobo? They do, but yeah they do, But 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:09.920 I mean, but they're not going to the office. Is 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:15.600 that's really odd. One of the topics that Matt and 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:18.320 I like to discuss is the supply chain issue, which 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:21.760 has become such an economic headwin on a global scale 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.240 as as a one of the fallouts from this pandemic. 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:26.199 And when we do that, we often talk about some 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:29.359 of the big, big companies, whether it's a big box 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.240 retailer like Walmart or a big transportation company like some 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.359 of the railroads. But I'm gonna go at it from 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:37.680 the angle of some smaller, newer businesses, and our next 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:41.160 guests can help us talk about that. Laura Modi, CEO 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.560 and co founder of Bobby. Bobby is a baby formula 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:47.640 delivery startup that sells direct to consumer and offers a 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:51.200 subscription service to parents across the United States. Laara, thanks 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:53.680 so much for joining us here. Talk to us about 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:58.800 your business getting stuff, delivering stuff. How are you dealing 0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:01.800 with what is in you know, a supply change challenge 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:05.720 for so many sectors of this economy. Yeah, I'm delighted 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:08.680 to be chatting at you guys again. Look, I mean 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:12.760 there's global supply chain issues in every industry, but I 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:17.680 think we're seeing it. And the anxiety around infant formula 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:20.479 is it's at an all time high. And it is 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:23.679 because if there's any product that you shouldn't be running 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:25.919 out of, I mean, infant formula is one of those. 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:30.360 So what we offer is we're directed consumer infant formula 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:34.040 delivery service. Bobby is one of the first organically and 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:36.399 infantformers on the market in the last six years, and 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.520 we get the product wherever you are, to your door. 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:44.240 Like when you do look at why is there a shortage? 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:49.000 The consumer behavior is rapidly changing, and it's changing in 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:51.520 the way they shop, where they shop, the quantity at 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.679 which they're buying. And because of that, retailers are just 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:58.400 not quick enough to be able to respond. But online 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:02.280 we are last order. In Q four of last year, 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.040 we saw a hundred and eight percent increase in our 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:11.720 subscriptions because parents want the security in getting their formula 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.639 well and because it's difficult to get the kind of 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.800 formula you offer in this country. As you know, we've 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:20.440 spoken before. UM, I just moved over here from Berlin, 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:25.639 and the formula that um, everybody on Park Avenue wants 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:29.160 is is only available in Europe, it seems, so why 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.280 is that? Why? Um, have you been the first person 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.639 to fill this gap? You know, why didn't anybody else 0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:42.119 see the problem and shoot in first? Well? First, I 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:46.080 mean Berlin, Germany is the birthplace of high quality insan 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.919 formia and in many ways was the inspiration to getting 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.760 Bobby off the ground. I would say many people noticed it, 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.840 and you know, as a tired, exhausted mom, it's the 0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:58.520 first thing you see, which is why are returning to 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:02.280 a black market for European infant formula? Why are we 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:05.240 not able to get high quality intant formula here? Now? 0:20:05.320 --> 0:20:08.400 It would be remiss to not say that this wasn't 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:13.840 a journey. It takes a long time to essentially redesign 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:18.000 an intrant formula, find the suppliers of choice, and then 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:20.720 get it approved here in the US. So we went 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:24.120 on a three year journey just to get the FDA 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:27.439 green light to launch our formula. This is not a 0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:31.159 pantry product. You can't just enter the market easily. It 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:34.359 takes a lot of rigor a lot of quality, and 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:36.240 we're very fortunate. By the way. I don't want to 0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.400 go off on too much of a tangent, but when 0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:42.360 I think of the importance of formula and nutrition for 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.280 infants and children, it always reminds me of there was 0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:48.040 a Freakonomics in the first book when they talk about 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.879 changes made in the seventies lead to drops in crime 0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:54.720 rates in the nineties. And I always think about the 0:20:54.720 --> 0:21:01.199