1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Read on this screen 7 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: here on this Monday morning. We've got rising interest rates, 8 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: we've got a slowing economy. Where do you put your 9 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: money to work? In that type of backdrop, let's check 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: in with Katie Nixon. She's a c IO of wealth 11 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: management at Northern Trust. That is a big, big account 12 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: for me back in the day when I was in analyst, 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: when I went to Chicago, had to check in with 14 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: the good friends of Northern Trust, had to get their 15 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: I I vote back in the day, and I'm proud 16 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: to report today always did. Okay, what's the I I vote. 17 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: It's the Institutional Investor magazine. Yes, that benchmark your total 18 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: wealth in the total worth in the world. And so 19 00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: in Chicago it was Northern Trust plus a couple of others. 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: All right, Katie, thanks so much for joining us. Here. 21 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 1: What's an investor to do here? In a rising interest 22 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 1: rate environment, slowing growth economy, it seems like a tough backdrop. Well, 23 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: good morning, and yes, a very difficult period certainly for investors, 24 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 1: as all periods of transition are. And you noted we're 25 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: in a period of transition related to some of the 26 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: macro outlook. We have slowing growth UM our perspectives will 27 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: also have slowing inflation as we get towards the middle 28 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: and the later part of this year. But we're also 29 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: wanted very important transition with respect monetary policy, going from 30 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: alter easy to less so UM. But what we would 31 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: characterize it as UM tighter, not tight. We still believe 32 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: that conditions are going to be at the end of 33 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: the day still quite accomminative UM, mainly because we don't 34 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: think the Fed is going to be able to go 35 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: through with all the rate hikes that are now built 36 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:57,279 Speaker 1: into built into market expectations. Do days then, like uh, 37 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: well this morning or Friday presented buying opportunity because clearly 38 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: this sell off is on the back of geopolitical risk. Well, 39 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I think if you look historically, what you 40 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: see as periods of high volatility typically are outside of recessions, 41 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: good time a good time to buy. What I would 42 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: say though, when it kind of goes back to one 43 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: of the comments made earlier about cash. You know, investors 44 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: right now need to go back to their plan and 45 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: make sure that their plan is right, that it's aligned 46 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 1: with their financial goals, that they have the liquidity, that 47 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: they have cash on hand to fund their goals during 48 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: periods of volatility. And right now we see volatility in 49 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: both the stock and the bond market, so you don't 50 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 1: want to be forced to sell your investment grade bonds, 51 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: your muni bonds, or your equities under durest. So it's 52 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: pretty safe to say it's a good strategy to have, 53 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: you know, a year of spending sitting in cash. Sometimes 54 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: it's an expensive insurance policy, certainly with zero interest rates 55 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: and an expensive insurance policy, but it's worth it during 56 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: periods like this when you can draw down your cash 57 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: and avoid having to sell other assets under durest. So 58 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: my best advice right now is go back to your plan, 59 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: make sure you have the cash that you might need 60 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: over the next year, because we're certainly going to be 61 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: in for a period of volatility here. This is becoming 62 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: consensus cash went from cash to king right as at 63 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: my wad of cash Paul. Paul has always been a 64 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: bullish cash. But but honestly, Katie, we've seen, um, you know, 65 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: cash was not favored last year, and it seems that now, 66 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: I mean you're talking about it. Golden Sacks I mentioned 67 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: earlier is recommending investors go to a substantial portion of cash. So, um, 68 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: it seems like the right time. Well, I would say 69 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: we always give that advice. Though. We have a goal 70 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: based framework where we specifically align clients financial goals with 71 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: assets and strategies, So we always recommend having a year 72 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: of cash um in portfolios. But I would say, though, 73 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: is you know, it's been a tough call for tactical 74 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: investors with respect to cash because you're you know, you're 75 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: getting zero um interest rates. You know, with high level inflation, 76 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: you're getting a deeply negative real rate. So for tactical 77 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: investors or shorter term time horizons that aren't aligned against goals, 78 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: it's been very difficult and challenging to hold cash. All right, 79 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: So if I'm not in cash, I want to be 80 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: in equities. I have the courage to be in equities. 81 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: As Tom King would say, am I looking at the 82 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: big growth names that have been so good for so long. 83 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: I'm thinking more than a decade? Really, Uh, you know, 84 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: the Damazons and the Apples have delivered for shareholders. Or 85 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: do I stick with that cyclical trade um that's worked 86 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 1: so well over the past couple of years. You know, 87 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: I would say both, um, And here's the reason. So 88 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: we we certainly see economic growth being above trend um 89 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 1: for this year, So that would suggest leaning into some 90 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: of those cyclical areas, including European stocks that have high leverage, 91 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: high exposure to global growth. That's said, though, think about 92 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: the forward forecast going into and beyond. Growth is going 93 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: to come off the boil, and when growth balls you 94 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 1: tend or or is the very slow and sluggish you 95 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: tend to see growth stocks outperform. So I would say, 96 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 1: don't try to time the turn in the cycle. You 97 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: want to own both and if you can add an 98 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: additional layer of sort of quality over both your growth 99 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: and value stocks, I think those are the kinds of 100 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: companies that will be able to really serve you well 101 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: during this period of excessive volatility and probably slower growth 102 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: going forward. You just want to finally wrap up your 103 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: thoughts on the FED because you said you don't think 104 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: they're going to be able to go through with the 105 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: what um, four or five rate hikes and then reducing 106 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: the balance sheet. What do you think is going to 107 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: flip the Fed? Well, I mean, I think the markets 108 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: right now piking in somewhere between five and seven rate hikes. UM. 109 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: We think that's way too aggressive given given our outlook 110 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: for where the economy is going and really what the 111 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,039 Speaker 1: economy is going to look like, um and the next uh, 112 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: you know, once we get past sort of the spring 113 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: in early summer, and I would say, you know, the 114 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: Fed may prefer they want to raise rates and start normalizing, 115 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: but the constraint is going to be the YEO curve, 116 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: and what we see right now is starty basis point. 117 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: The market is not giving the Feed a lot of 118 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 1: wiggle room here to raise rates five to seven times. 119 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: We think maybe the Fed's going to go and March. 120 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 1: That's that's a fet a complete could be fifty fifty 121 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: basis points. We hope they do. That will give a 122 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 1: strong message to the market that they're they're trying to 123 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: catch up, and then they may go a couple more times. 124 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: But We certainly don't think five to seven is in 125 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: the cards. All right, Katie, thank you so much for 126 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: joining us. Always appreciate getting your thoughts. Katie Nixon, ce 127 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: I O of Walth Management at Northern Trust, giving our 128 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: thoughts on these markets. Again, we have got a sell 129 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: off in the markets right today. In the last two years, 130 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: we've all been or many of us, many of us 131 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: have been working from home, learning from home. That's putting 132 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: a lot of data out there in the cloud. It's 133 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: putting it outside of the corporate offices, which raises all 134 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: kinds of cybersecurity issues. Let's get a handle on how 135 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: that's developing here, David Brittain, Global Strategy, were identity and 136 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: fraud from the firm experience at the ESPN Trades in London. Uh, David, 137 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: thanks much for joining us here. What have you guys 138 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: noticed from your clients in terms of data security, cyber fraud, 139 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: all those issues. How have they trended over the past 140 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: couple of years. Yeah? Thanks, it's a well, first of all, 141 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: it's a pleasure to be with you guys again and 142 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: to share a little bit of the thoughts that we've gotten. 143 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: Maybe for a little bit of context, are The group 144 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: that I work within where I leave strategy is the 145 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: identity and fraud group within Experience, as you rightly pointed out, 146 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: which we get access to a lot of interesting insights. 147 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: Uh And and with this rush to digital, unfortunately, the 148 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: digital progress has caused real rush to digital fraud as 149 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: well in fraud vulnerability. And so we we put out 150 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: a number of different predictions where we think fraud is 151 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: moving this year. It includes areas like we believe that 152 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: you know, we've all been hearing about ransomware. We think 153 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: ransomware a tax is going to increase going forward. Um, 154 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: and the and the crime that occurs there's not us 155 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: the ransom payout, that's the one that everybody is seemingly 156 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: most concerned about. But there's also data theft issues there 157 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: When those procesters get in and start to disrupt the networks, 158 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: there's a disruption to business. And then there's data theft 159 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: and compromise, which ultimately leads to a loss of trust. 160 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: So that's one thing that I think businesses need to 161 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: be increasingly aware of coming into the new year. How 162 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: do we the next one is David. First of all, 163 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: Nathan's mom works for you, and UH, we heard that 164 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: Nathan's mom works from home a lot of time. So 165 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:33,199 Speaker 1: you have workers at home. Are you confident in UM 166 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: your ability to keep things safe even as not all 167 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: of your employees are in the office. You know, it's 168 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: we We absolutely embrace what we call a security first 169 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: philosophy here at Experience, and we we ensure that the people, 170 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: the systems, and the processes are under a constant review 171 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 1: UH to ensure that they maintain we maintain a best 172 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: in class security posture, and we spent a lot of 173 00:08:57,760 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: time and energy on that. Not really the area of 174 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: MYFA specifically. I'm more focused on some of the solutions, 175 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: the data, the solutions and technologies we offer to the market, 176 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: and that's where we see things like along, I didn't 177 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: really mean your ability to to stay safe. I meant 178 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: all of us, you know, because we're all doing that 179 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: right now, David Um not being Paul but or Nathan, 180 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,479 Speaker 1: but everyone else seems is working from home and UM 181 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: there haven't been any massive catastrophes yet. Yeah. I think 182 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,559 Speaker 1: it speaks to the work that had been done leading 183 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: up to this, the trends around what businesses were investing 184 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: in to be able to enter and maintain that security, 185 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: the practices that were being laid out, they had to 186 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: be accelerated. We advanced the agenda of what it meant 187 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: to be digital very quickly over the course of two years, 188 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: probably ten years in advance and when they thought they 189 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: may need them. Um and and so there's a number 190 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: of different things. And for consumers themselves, Uh, there are 191 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: a couple of other things to consider. One is around 192 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: the evolution of the crypto and the crypto scams that 193 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: are happening. There's reportedly half a billion dollars in losses 194 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: recorded last year on crypto payment scams, and that goes 195 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: to uh, sort of a bit appropriate to the topic today, 196 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: appropriate for Valentine's Days, are on the romance scams, where 197 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of an increase over the last year, 198 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: specifically in the vulnerability and as you mentioned, we're all 199 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: working from home, we're all sort of isolated during the 200 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: pandemic and there's a need to reach out, and so 201 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: romance scams were it was the most profitable year for 202 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: romance scams last year in the market. Yeah, yeah, interesting. 203 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: All right, David, too short a time. We're gonna get 204 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: you back on. We'll chat. I want to talk about 205 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 1: zel scams with David. Yes, and honestly about the the 206 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: the the solutions they offer consumers. You know, I guess 207 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 1: the question here is a micron as it eases here 208 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: in many parts of the country, particularly here in New York, 209 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 1: it's the infection rate is extraordinarily low, kind of pre 210 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: um kind of omicron levels. The question once again end 211 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: for employers turns back to how do I get people 212 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: back to work? Do I want to get people back 213 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: to work? Do people want to come back to the 214 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: office per se? Uh? It continues to be an issue 215 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: for Corporate America. John Fish, he's a CEO and chairman 216 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,959 Speaker 1: of Suffolk Construction Company. John, thanks so much for joining 217 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: us here. What's your take of how this might normalize? 218 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: I e. Will people come back to the office, will 219 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: they work from home? Will they hybrid? What's your take? Well, 220 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: Matt and Paul, it's a pleasure to be with you 221 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: this morning. I want to thank you very much. I 222 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: do believe it's not if, but it's when. I think 223 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,439 Speaker 1: most people want to return to the work once they 224 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: feel safe. So I think what we need to be 225 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: doing is a society is really following the data all 226 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: along and right now, I think we really are transitioning 227 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: really from a pandemic to an endemic, and we can 228 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: see that through the numbers. So my sense right now, 229 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: the average office is about forty full. I think by 230 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: the springtime we're gonna be seeing eight and hopefully by 231 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: the summertime end of the sum we're seeing about But 232 00:11:58,480 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, I think 233 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: that's a direct we're going in right now. I gotta 234 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: push back against that. Um, if I were allowed to 235 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: work from home, I would never want to come back 236 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: to the office because I'd be working from home in Montana. 237 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: You know I would. But now you're gonna be in 238 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: Westchester community, and I love coming here, so don't get 239 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: me wrong. UM, And I love Westchester and I love 240 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: Suffolk County. I don't know where you are, John, but UM, 241 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: I'm guessing Boston. I think I think most people who 242 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: can are going to move are the kids, let's say, 243 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: are going to move to someplace that's not New York 244 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: prices and work for a place that is New York salary. UM, 245 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: I don't know, Uh, I don't know. I guess the 246 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: answer and we'll find out. But what are you hearing 247 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 1: from business leaders as far as getting people back in. 248 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: You know, I think fundamentally in the United States today, 249 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 1: in order for us to be competitive globally, we need 250 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: that energy, We need that cultural impetus to drive our 251 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 1: successes at our companies right now. And we saw the 252 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:04,599 Speaker 1: experiment with education. Education really was a failed experiment. I 253 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 1: don't think the kids retained or learned much during the 254 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: last eighteen months during this virus itself. And also the 255 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 1: impact and we talk about the cities. When you think 256 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: about service oriented type of jobs that are really our economy, 257 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: they basically shut down in our city areas and people 258 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: the white college jobs were able to work remotely. But 259 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, if we don't have 260 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: thriving cities, we're not going to have a strong economy 261 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: of the overall. And lastly, I would say this way 262 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: is that when you think about competitive edge, I've never 263 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:36,839 Speaker 1: heard of anybody really having been able to build a 264 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 1: culture remotely, or mentor remotely, or provide a sense of 265 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: leadership remotely. And probably most how do people get promoted remotely? 266 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: And I'm not saying people cannot work remotely, but I'm saying, 267 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 1: generally speaking, in order for this our society that continue 268 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: going forward in a productive, equal way. We need our 269 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: cities and our offices to come back to full health. 270 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 1: You know, I see a lot of you know on 271 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: TV and things. When I see you know, stories about 272 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: coming back to the office. I see a lot of 273 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: officers have the plastic dividers up between deaths. Have you 274 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: seen that around? What? What do you what are you 275 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: seeing in some of your building, some of your clients? 276 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: You know? What's really about is I think over the 277 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: last ten years is we know cities have grown quite 278 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: a bit old temper cent over the last ten years, 279 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: and this whole office space grew quite a bit and 280 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: it became very expensive. So what people did is they 281 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 1: took of the average squift foot allocation for a person 282 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: from probably about a hundred and seventy five down to 283 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: some even went below a hundred square feet. I think 284 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: what we're gonna see now with the omicrone virus subsiding, 285 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: I think people coming back to work and that squift 286 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: footage figure is probably gonna move back to that one 287 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: fifty to two square foot range. So at the end 288 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: of the day, in the next two or three years, 289 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: I do think the office market will move back to 290 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: where it originally was. It will set this resiliency and 291 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: I think people will want to come back to work 292 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: with each other. I wonder about travel between you know, 293 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: along the Eastern Seaboard. You are obviously, um we hear 294 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 1: a little Boston there, and I think you're rated one 295 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: of the one most important people in Boston one hundred 296 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: most influential people in Boston by Boston Magazine. You also 297 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: sit on the executive committee of the Real Estate Board 298 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: of New York, so you're up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 299 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: Is the mobility what you want to see right now? 300 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 1: You know it's again I'm gonna go back to this 301 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: issue of safety going to the airport's right now. I 302 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: think you look at their protocols have been put in place, 303 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: and I believe it is safe for people to travel today, 304 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: especially on your lines. You take a look at the 305 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: how to improve the hb A system on these build planes. 306 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: It's never been as strong as it has been right now. 307 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, what we are 308 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: seeing is dealing with an endemic. Right now. The numbers 309 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: in the data show the things the virus is subsiding, 310 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: and we are getting close hopefully to what we call 311 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: herd immunity. At the end of the day, if we 312 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: can achieve that, I think we're all back in business. 313 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, in a 314 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: competitive society, especially in globalization, we have to be with 315 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: each other. Totally agree. I just want to wonder what 316 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: you want to see beyond it. I mean, Paul and 317 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: I were done with the pandemic, so what's next to me? 318 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: I think in a sense of normalcy, I think what 319 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: people want to be they want to be with their 320 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: families with a sense of confidence and comfort, they want 321 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: to be with their work is in work and having 322 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: that social experience. At the end of the day, we 323 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: all think about building up personally and professional balance sheets. 324 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: We can't build that personal balance sheet or our professional 325 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: balance sheet working remotely in isolation. And I think the 326 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: whole issue of the school experience naturally prove that out. Hey, John, 327 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting some 328 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: of your time here, John Fish, CEO and chairman of 329 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: Suffol Construction Company, getting a little sense of kind of 330 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: what the new normal might look like for back to work. Um, 331 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's interesting here in New York city. 332 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: You cannot get an apartment. There's not any vacancies for apartments. 333 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 1: But I don't know where the do the kids still 334 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 1: go to hobo? They do, but yeah they do, But 335 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: I mean, but they're not going to the office. Is 336 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: that's really odd. One of the topics that Matt and 337 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: I like to discuss is the supply chain issue, which 338 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: has become such an economic headwin on a global scale 339 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 1: as as a one of the fallouts from this pandemic. 340 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,199 Speaker 1: And when we do that, we often talk about some 341 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 1: of the big, big companies, whether it's a big box 342 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: retailer like Walmart or a big transportation company like some 343 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: of the railroads. But I'm gonna go at it from 344 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: the angle of some smaller, newer businesses, and our next 345 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: guests can help us talk about that. Laura Modi, CEO 346 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: and co founder of Bobby. Bobby is a baby formula 347 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 1: delivery startup that sells direct to consumer and offers a 348 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: subscription service to parents across the United States. Laara, thanks 349 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. Talk to us about 350 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: your business getting stuff, delivering stuff. How are you dealing 351 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: with what is in you know, a supply change challenge 352 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: for so many sectors of this economy. Yeah, I'm delighted 353 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 1: to be chatting at you guys again. Look, I mean 354 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: there's global supply chain issues in every industry, but I 355 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 1: think we're seeing it. And the anxiety around infant formula 356 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,479 Speaker 1: is it's at an all time high. And it is 357 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,679 Speaker 1: because if there's any product that you shouldn't be running 358 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: out of, I mean, infant formula is one of those. 359 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,360 Speaker 1: So what we offer is we're directed consumer infant formula 360 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 1: delivery service. Bobby is one of the first organically and 361 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,399 Speaker 1: infantformers on the market in the last six years, and 362 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: we get the product wherever you are, to your door. 363 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: Like when you do look at why is there a shortage? 364 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: The consumer behavior is rapidly changing, and it's changing in 365 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: the way they shop, where they shop, the quantity at 366 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 1: which they're buying. And because of that, retailers are just 367 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 1: not quick enough to be able to respond. But online 368 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 1: we are last order. In Q four of last year, 369 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: we saw a hundred and eight percent increase in our 370 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: subscriptions because parents want the security in getting their formula 371 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: well and because it's difficult to get the kind of 372 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: formula you offer in this country. As you know, we've 373 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 1: spoken before. UM, I just moved over here from Berlin, 374 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: and the formula that um, everybody on Park Avenue wants 375 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 1: is is only available in Europe, it seems, so why 376 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: is that? Why? Um, have you been the first person 377 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: to fill this gap? You know, why didn't anybody else 378 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: see the problem and shoot in first? Well? First, I 379 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: mean Berlin, Germany is the birthplace of high quality insan 380 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 1: formia and in many ways was the inspiration to getting 381 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: Bobby off the ground. I would say many people noticed it, 382 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: and you know, as a tired, exhausted mom, it's the 383 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: first thing you see, which is why are returning to 384 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: a black market for European infant formula? Why are we 385 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: not able to get high quality intant formula here? Now? 386 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,400 Speaker 1: It would be remiss to not say that this wasn't 387 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: a journey. It takes a long time to essentially redesign 388 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: an intrant formula, find the suppliers of choice, and then 389 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: get it approved here in the US. So we went 390 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 1: on a three year journey just to get the FDA 391 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 1: green light to launch our formula. This is not a 392 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 1: pantry product. You can't just enter the market easily. It 393 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: takes a lot of rigor a lot of quality, and 394 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: we're very fortunate. By the way. I don't want to 395 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 1: go off on too much of a tangent, but when 396 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 1: I think of the importance of formula and nutrition for 397 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: infants and children, it always reminds me of there was 398 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: a Freakonomics in the first book when they talk about 399 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 1: changes made in the seventies lead to drops in crime 400 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 1: rates in the nineties. And I always think about the 401 00:20:54,720 --> 00:21:01,199 Speaker 1: importance of feeding our children well nutritionally. Um is up 402 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: there with like giving them love right in terms of 403 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: creating better citizens when they're eighteen, you know, and we don't, 404 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: and we have a real problem with that, I think, Um, 405 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 1: in this country, Laura, I don't know if if you've 406 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 1: noticed it, because judging by your accent, you didn't grow 407 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: up here, but it could make such a big difference. Um, 408 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: what do you do for the to help the underserved 409 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: or the underprivileged people who can't afford good formula? Yeah, 410 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: well said, I mean, I think we forget as well 411 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 1: that infant formula is the first food that a baby 412 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: is going to consume. So why is it that the 413 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 1: first ingredient is corn syrup or not setting them up 414 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: for success. We need to make sure that the nutrients 415 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: and ingredients in this product do set them up for 416 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: success at an adolescent as an adult. Um So for 417 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: the underserved, I mean this is really really important for 418 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: us that the affordability and access to high quality formulas 419 00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 1: out there for everyone. We've made a commitment that every 420 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: CAWNT purchase it equals a feed to a baby, and 421 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: we've made many different partnerships with those underserved communities like 422 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: Brilliant a Choice where we're giving Bobby back to make 423 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: sure it is accessed by everyone. Lauren, thank you so 424 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: much for joining us. We always appreciate getting your perspective 425 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: on the day to day small business in America dealing 426 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: with some of the challenges of growth and supply chain. 427 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: Laura Modi, CEO and co founder of the firm Bobby, 428 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: which provides a baby formula delivery. Thanks for listening to 429 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 430 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: interviews of Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 431 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller. Put 432 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: on fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before 433 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio,