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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noelman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are a company media company, sports betting media company

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Speaker 1: that focuses on sports betting, news, information analysis, how markets

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Speaker 1: are moving, what games are priced at all over the country,

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Speaker 1: at every sports book. But we do love our friends

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel. I am joined twice a week by my partner,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: my brother. You're there. I thought you're gonna keep going.

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Speaker 1: You're firing away, Chad, So I just let let you

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Speaker 1: go on your role, you know to what That's what

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Speaker 1: I do here. I'll let you do. It's true, and

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Speaker 1: I never know when I'm going to stop. But I

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Speaker 1: do want to reiterate we have so many new listeners

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Speaker 1: because of the partnership that Action has with Colin Cowherd

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Speaker 1: and the Volume Podcast Network. I do feel like we

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Speaker 1: need to for a few weeks continue to introduce ourselves,

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Speaker 1: remind people of who we are, what we do. You

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Speaker 1: are a professional better. I know a little bit about

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Speaker 1: betting from having covered this world for twenty years, especially

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Speaker 1: as immersively as I have at the Action Network since

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Speaker 1: we launched in January of two eighteen. UM, we've got

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Speaker 1: a variety of analysts, a variety of reporters, a variety

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Speaker 1: of experts. UH, you and I do this twice a

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Speaker 1: week during the football season. On Tuesday, we are going

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Speaker 1: through every single game on the NFL slate sides totals

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Speaker 1: things that we like. We are trying to narrow it

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Speaker 1: down on Thursdays, five picks that we love that we

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Speaker 1: may or may not put into an unnamed contest. Um,

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Speaker 1: but at the very least, it's five picks that listeners

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Speaker 1: can feel really good about heading into the weekend. A reminder,

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Speaker 1: we will track all of the picks that we make

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. It's free, it's award winning.

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Speaker 1: Download it. You can follow me, you can follow Simon.

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Speaker 1: You'll be able to see what picks we're making on

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning, because that's when we'll lock everything in, because

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Speaker 1: that's when lines have moved and we've seen the best advantages, etcetera. UM,

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Speaker 1: So you'll be able to see that. But we'll be

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Speaker 1: doing this Tuesdays and Thursdays, and then on Fridays, I

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Speaker 1: will be doing a podcast with Signed with Colin in

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Speaker 1: which he's given me five picks he loves and I'm

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Speaker 1: telling him when he's wrong. Um, it's pretty amazing stuff, Simon. Today,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna come up with a Survivor pick. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: nail down our final five in theory. We're gonna do

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Speaker 1: some money line parlays. We're gonna offer up another review

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Speaker 1: at the end of the show, Matt Mitchell. Are we

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Speaker 1: gonna do that? Yes? Will be more to enter into

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Speaker 1: the running for the Play of the Year from Simon. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we'll do that. We'll do a big balls better the week.

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Speaker 1: We'll do a hornets Nest bet. I'm walking to a

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Speaker 1: fucking hornets nest. All right, now, be my companion. I

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Speaker 1: need you to make me, help them be jealous of me.

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Speaker 1: But there's already been like this is why it's valuable

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Speaker 1: doing the show twice a week. On Tuesday, we had

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Speaker 1: a lot of ideas. As you noted, Simon, you are

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Speaker 1: very deep in the professional betting business. You have a

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Speaker 1: lot of contacts, a lot of people listen to the show.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned on Tuesday, you will talk about games on

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Speaker 1: the show, and then you will get people texting you

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Speaker 1: being that's crazy you're wrong. That's already happened. Uh one

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Speaker 1: game in particular I want to talk about, which I've

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Speaker 1: already bet. You can see it in the app. I

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Speaker 1: wish we had a conversation before I did that. Giants

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Speaker 1: Broncos under we loved on Tuesday. You're getting a lot

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Speaker 1: of blowback about it today. Yeah, it's just tough because

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Speaker 1: I like the whole theory behind it, where you have

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Speaker 1: two of the top five defenses in the league with

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Speaker 1: two quarterbacks that are kind of the mix. So it

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Speaker 1: sounds like a sound play on paper. But I guess

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys think the lines moved too much.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people have this at forty and their system,

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Speaker 1: and it's down to forty one in some books, So

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Speaker 1: people over adjusted at this point, and too much money

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Speaker 1: is coming on the under, so it seems like the

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Speaker 1: advantage now it's towards you over. So I was gonna

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Speaker 1: bet pretty heavily on this under, and I'm either just

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Speaker 1: gonna stay away or I'll just take the over um

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Speaker 1: closer to game time, hope it goes you and lower. Basically,

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Speaker 1: the theory you're referring to, you gotta get the best

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Speaker 1: of the number right, that's not always the biggest deal

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Speaker 1: because again, this is Week one. A lot of these

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Speaker 1: numbers have been hit by professionals for the last three

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Speaker 1: or four months. Again, things are gonna be a lot

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Speaker 1: different in a couple of weeks because that's when the

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Speaker 1: lines are gonna get a lot smarter and uh, just

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Speaker 1: more advantage. Where these early weeks here like, yeah, I

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Speaker 1: feel confident about a lot of these bets, but again,

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Speaker 1: it's so fluky. Week one we talked about all the time.

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Speaker 1: The Jaguars won one game last year and it was

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Speaker 1: Week one they won. They beat the Colts, who are

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Speaker 1: a playoff team. So it's just one of these things

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Speaker 1: where week when I like to bet on the weird

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Speaker 1: stuff to happen, and it tends to work out for me.

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Speaker 1: So that's again, that's what a lot of stuff we're

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Speaker 1: doing this week. We're we're big dog betters. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: be taking a lot of underdogs this week. So that's

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Speaker 1: that's just the way it's gonna be. I will look

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Speaker 1: this morning, I slapped you and Matt Mitchell are producer

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Speaker 1: the twelve Sides and Totals bets I was making. I

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Speaker 1: also slapped you the money line parlay bets I was making,

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Speaker 1: which we're going to discuss today. Here's my question. I

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Speaker 1: slapped you at like I don't know, nine the fucking

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Speaker 1: Giants and broncos Under was on that list, and and

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Speaker 1: your response was a little bit of a heart. You

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Speaker 1: gave me a little heart like an emoji, meaning like,

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Speaker 1: all right, he must still love all these Honestly, I

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Speaker 1: equally eyes with your chat. I didn't even started. I

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Speaker 1: didn't go through all of them. I saw how it started,

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Speaker 1: and I realized it was just all the bets we

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Speaker 1: talked about. So I just let it go. Um, that's

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Speaker 1: on me. Yeah, I'm having a lot of calls and

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Speaker 1: text this morning. Chat are your immediate superstar. It happens.

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Speaker 1: It's this week though. If I say we go and five,

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Speaker 1: people are gonna leave me alone. Um. And if I

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Speaker 1: go five and oh, I'm gonna hold out for a

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Speaker 1: new contracts. So it's exciting to see what happens after

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Speaker 1: this weekend. Joined the club. Brother, We're all all of

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Speaker 1: us are always on a permanent hold up. We always

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Speaker 1: deserve more money. Um, that's fine, Listen, You've you've done

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Speaker 1: so much for me in my life already that if

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Speaker 1: I lose one game because you weren't paying attention. That's

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Speaker 1: totally fine. Um. I did talk to a buddy last night. Uh,

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Speaker 1: my buddy Matt, who are a lot of people who

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Speaker 1: listen to the podcast for the past few years. No,

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Speaker 1: he's a guy who we went in. We bet all

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Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty six games a couple. Is it

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Speaker 1: to fifty six to six? Yeah? It wasn't last year's

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Speaker 1: the year before, two years ago. Um, but every single

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Speaker 1: game in the NFL we want a significant amount of money.

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Speaker 1: Felt great. Blew it all on a massive sushi dinner.

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Speaker 1: Uh in early in New York, which turns out, uh

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Speaker 1: was one of the last times you could go out

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Speaker 1: in the city. And that you know, he's in San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: I was in New York. We went out together. Um

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Speaker 1: last night we're talking about sort of betting for the year,

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Speaker 1: and it's so funny. You know, he is a high

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Speaker 1: powered executive in the tech space. He's done very well

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Speaker 1: for himself, beautiful family, beautiful wife, beautiful home in the

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Speaker 1: Bay Area, and we were talking about how much money, Like,

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Speaker 1: did he want to go in with me? If I'm

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Speaker 1: going to make these best this year? Did he want

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Speaker 1: to go in, we'd go fifty, and he's like, it's

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Speaker 1: so much to risk. I'm like, dude, getting married as

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Speaker 1: a risk, having kids is a risk. Leaving your job

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Speaker 1: as a lawyer in Chicago to go work at a

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Speaker 1: startup in say Francisco, across the country is a risk.

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Speaker 1: Taking the jobs you've taken is a risk. Give me

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Speaker 1: a little bit of scratch so we can bet on

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Speaker 1: these games together. It's not a risk. But it's so

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Speaker 1: funny how people think about risks. Right, Betting the cash

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Speaker 1: component of it is a risk. I argue that we

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Speaker 1: all take bigger risks every day doing what we do

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Speaker 1: in our lives and putting a little money down on

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Speaker 1: NFL games. And it's definitely one of those stigma things

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Speaker 1: where it's like he just knows the thing where he's

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Speaker 1: like he feels like everyone else where. It's like no

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Speaker 1: one ever wins in the sports betting thing. So that's

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Speaker 1: probably where he's coming from. But simon, we do we do,

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Speaker 1: Like that's my job here. I'm just trying to change

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Speaker 1: bull re views. It's like, even though I was talking

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Speaker 1: to a buddy about this week one, um, even if

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Speaker 1: I go over five, I'm not gonna hear a peep

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Speaker 1: from any of my clients the next week. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: still be right back there with me betting on whatever

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Speaker 1: I do here. Yeah, we might a leave of our

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Speaker 1: fans after one week here. I kind of want people

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Speaker 1: to understand it's just Evan flows, that's it's just the

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Speaker 1: way that sports betting is that we're me and Chat

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Speaker 1: aren't gonna go five and over a week. I think

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Speaker 1: we have five and three times last year, which for

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Speaker 1: us was a huge deal. That's the reason we finished

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Speaker 1: in the top twenty four. So it's always the goal.

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Speaker 1: But three and two here, if we keep we if

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Speaker 1: we give out a couple of money line dogs, that's

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Speaker 1: that's a really profitable year here. So as always the

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Speaker 1: goal for us, that shore will be Uh, Matt, my buddy,

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Speaker 1: Matt is texting me no joke as we speak. It's

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Speaker 1: the second week in a row that I'm talking about

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Speaker 1: him on the podcast and he's texting me. At the

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Speaker 1: same time. He says hello to everybody. I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: We got to go three and two every week. That's

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Speaker 1: how we win fans, it's how we win friends, it's

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Speaker 1: how we win money. You slacked me early this morning,

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Speaker 1: let me recap what we did so last week. We

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Speaker 1: talked about every game and at the end of it,

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Speaker 1: we circle a handful of games that we felt strongly

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Speaker 1: about that we knew we were going to want to

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Speaker 1: discuss today. To narrow down our list of five, we

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Speaker 1: loved Washington football team plus one against the light Chargers

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Speaker 1: at home. We love the Texans plus two and a

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Speaker 1: half against Jacksonville at home. That game is now up

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Speaker 1: to three. We love Pittsburgh at plus six and a

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Speaker 1: half on the road of Buffalo, Detroit plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half at home against San Francisco. Uh we circled

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Speaker 1: Kansas City minus six and a half as a question mark.

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Speaker 1: We circled Green Bay and minus four as a question mark.

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Speaker 1: And you slapped me and Matt Mitchell this morning with

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Speaker 1: a picture of the games that you were listening for

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Speaker 1: us so far, and it included, um, Pittsburgh, still Detroit, still,

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Speaker 1: Washington football team still in Cincinnati. Yeah, where did that

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Speaker 1: come from? Uh? So, what I like to do when

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Speaker 1: I do these things, it's like I try to go

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Speaker 1: with just right when I wake up. I checked these

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Speaker 1: lines right when they where whenever they added to the contest,

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Speaker 1: and I just put the first five in without even

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Speaker 1: like checking any of my notes, without even thinking. I

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Speaker 1: just think we're the best looking ends for value. And

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Speaker 1: then I'm gonna go back and obviously update it and

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Speaker 1: keep going through it and check it before you send

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Speaker 1: out what we're gonna do on Sunday. That's just a

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Speaker 1: good number. I mean, we talked about I like the

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Speaker 1: three and a half with since, but that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: the first one we're gonna drop, Like I'm already already

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Speaker 1: dropped them since I sent that picture. Um So that

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Speaker 1: was one of those where I just like the value.

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Speaker 1: And the reason Houston didn't make the cut for us

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Speaker 1: is I told you I want that three. It's two

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Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. So that's one of

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Speaker 1: these things where again I'm not trying to beat the

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Speaker 1: dead horse here, but mean, Chad, we do we do

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Speaker 1: care about the number. I mean, it's there's a big

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Speaker 1: difference between three and just you know, two and a half.

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Speaker 1: We we pushed I think four times last year, and

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Speaker 1: again that's the reason we finished where we did. So

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Speaker 1: we're always trying to get the best of the number

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Speaker 1: because it does come in where it matters a lot.

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Speaker 1: Especially in this contest with so much movement before the

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Speaker 1: game's kick off. So from me chat right now, we

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Speaker 1: dropped since and we're looking about adding minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half Denver, which is one of the chalkiest plays

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Speaker 1: of the week. But again it's under three. That's a

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Speaker 1: good number for this Denver team. Break it down for me.

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Speaker 1: Why do you think so other than Teddy Covers, I

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Speaker 1: mean Teddy on the road, it's been good to me.

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Speaker 1: I think he's eighteen and four. I'll have to look.

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Speaker 1: I know. Um that's Lab. That's where I go for

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Speaker 1: all these numbers. Are our friendly company here. Yeah, we

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Speaker 1: love that Labs. Go check it out. It's got like Las,

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Speaker 1: it's got. It's got, no joke, millions and millions of

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Speaker 1: data points that track information from a betting point of

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Speaker 1: view going back more than twenty years. So when Simon

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Speaker 1: talks about Teddy Covers, Teddy Bridgewater is eighteen and four

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Speaker 1: in this spot. He's able to go back and look

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Speaker 1: at every game against the spread that Teddy Bridgewater has

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Speaker 1: ever played on the road as a starter as a

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Speaker 1: short favorite. I can tell you that in twenty two

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Speaker 1: games at this number, he's covered eighteen. He's eighteen and four,

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Speaker 1: and that's one he's looking at where like, I understand

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Speaker 1: what people are saying. Now this is a very cha play,

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Speaker 1: but that's what like again, Me and you talk all

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Speaker 1: the time. There's there's sometimes you want to be sharp,

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Speaker 1: and there's sometimes you don't really overthink this. And if

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Speaker 1: I think this line should be three and it's two

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Speaker 1: and a half, you take Denver there. It's just a

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Speaker 1: really good number, especially in the fact that all the

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Speaker 1: question marks with the Giants we don't know well at QUM,

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Speaker 1: we don't know if he's a cent. We already know

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Speaker 1: that old line has a bunch of issues. It just

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Speaker 1: feels like Denver in this first game is just a

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Speaker 1: smart player. It's such a small number. I hate this game.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe we're falling but not I mean, I

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Speaker 1: just hate it. We are falling back into the bad

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Speaker 1: habits we made last year. And it also goes against

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Speaker 1: our principles in that we are betting on a like

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Speaker 1: By the way, I've been a much bigger fan of

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Speaker 1: the Broncos the entire preseason than you have, and and

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Speaker 1: touting Teddy Bridgewater is going to be the starter, and

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be good for that team. But do I

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Speaker 1: want a mediocre team on the road as a favorite it?

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Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean? That's that goes against

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Speaker 1: everything we believe in. They're not mediocre though, that's the problem.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Teddy Bridgewater is, but the rest of that team,

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Speaker 1: like Jerry Judy Sutton, no of fan. I mean, they

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Speaker 1: got weapons on all offense and their defense is legit

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Speaker 1: top five in the league. So it's one of these

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Speaker 1: things where I'm down on Denver. But I I had

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Speaker 1: them starting the year two and no I have them

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Speaker 1: winning this game. I haven't winn next week against Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: So again, I just think that's a fair number that

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Speaker 1: at minus two. Of course, yead I wish it was

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Speaker 1: still plus one or pick that's what it was before

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Speaker 1: Teddy was named the starter. But I just think we're

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Speaker 1: still getting fair value here. Again, we we have three

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Speaker 1: dogs right now. We have Detroit as a dog. We

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Speaker 1: have Pittsburgh as a dog team the football team. So

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Speaker 1: we did this last year. We like going three dogs

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Speaker 1: and two favorites. I know green Bay is incredibly chalky.

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Speaker 1: I mean, as soon as we got I would say

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Speaker 1: we put our show at like five o'clock said, by

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Speaker 1: seven o'clock, I had at least five emails yelling at

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Speaker 1: me about taking Green Bay against the Saints. So it's

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Speaker 1: one of the these things where the pros think green

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Speaker 1: Bay is being incredibly overvalued, that the Saints are gonna

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Speaker 1: run it all over green Bay's terrible run defense, and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to keep this game close and

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Speaker 1: keep it, you know, under four points. Where I look

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Speaker 1: at this game and we've talked about it, I don't

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Speaker 1: understand how moving from the home field Superdome but their

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Speaker 1: home crowd indoors to an outdoor stadium is beneficial to

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Speaker 1: the Saints team. It's one of these things where I

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Speaker 1: don't want to really understand how Len moved one point

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Speaker 1: five points. I guess it's because again the books are

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Speaker 1: scared of professionals, and the professionals think they have a

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Speaker 1: good number here. But to me, I had this up

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Speaker 1: at six now, So again I think we're getting a

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Speaker 1: really good number here with green Bay. And I still

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Speaker 1: think people are a little bit a little bit too

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Speaker 1: down on green Bay, where they think because they're alignes

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Speaker 1: on and because Aaron Rodgers was holding out, and maybe

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Speaker 1: there's some bad you do there it's it's just one

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Speaker 1: of the things they are physic. People were thinking it's

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Speaker 1: Aaron rodgers Worth. Jamis wins to on a neutral field.

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Speaker 1: And you can talk all you want about green Bay.

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Speaker 1: They're one of the top three teams NFC. So it's

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Speaker 1: just interesting where I think the professionals are thinking that

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Speaker 1: green Bay can be run on. Jamis wints gonna make

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Speaker 1: one or two plays to keep this getting close. Why

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Speaker 1: I just look at the other way where I just

319
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Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a complete blow out and

320
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Speaker 1: the books are just gonna take a loss year. Well,

321
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Speaker 1: they'll get it back in other games. So this is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: You get a lot of feedback on the Giants and

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Speaker 1: Broncos total that we talked about on Tuesday. We decided

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Speaker 1: that the best of the number is lost. It had

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Speaker 1: been at forty five. At forty two, it's too low

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Speaker 1: to make any younger bets on it. Uh, Packards and Saints.

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Speaker 1: You are at this point. I've listened to a lot

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Speaker 1: of Action Network experts talk about this game, liking the

329
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Speaker 1: Saints for a variety of reasons. You've been getting feedback

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Speaker 1: from your sports betting wise guy colleagues that they like

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Speaker 1: the Saints, and you are stand ending firm that you

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Speaker 1: like the Packers at minus four based on your number,

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Speaker 1: you think everybody else is wrong. This is fun. This

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00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,880
Speaker 1: is why sports betting is the best and why I

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Speaker 1: love sports bettors. They are the cockiest motherfucker's in the world.

336
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Speaker 1: They truly believe in their number, They truly believe in

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Speaker 1: their system. It's why sports bettors get into this space.

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Speaker 1: They can't make it in a world where they have

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Speaker 1: to be reporting to somebody else where, they have to

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Speaker 1: be taking direction from somebody else. They so firmly believe

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Speaker 1: in their own skill set, in their own ability, and

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Speaker 1: their own brilliance. It's amazing. So I'm pretty I'm pretty

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Speaker 1: bad though, because I'm just so agreeable. So if these

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Speaker 1: guys calling me up or they're saying any of this stuff,

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Speaker 1: I just let them say what they gotta say. I'm

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Speaker 1: just like, yeah, yeah, I like I hear you. But

347
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Speaker 1: it's just different. We're Week one. I don't really take

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Speaker 1: them as serious. But again, if this was week six

349
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Speaker 1: or seven and these same guys are hitting me up, Chad,

350
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Speaker 1: we we'll be switching this bet. Because it's just one

351
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Speaker 1: of the things where I'm gonna trust my own number

352
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Speaker 1: early on and let the people build up more data

353
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Speaker 1: as this season goes along. Where it's like, I think

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00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 1: people overvalue too much of what happened last year and

355
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Speaker 1: just looking at what's going to happen this upcoming season. Alright,

356
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Speaker 1: So you're telling me right now that Packers minus four

357
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Speaker 1: over Saints will end up being one of our at

358
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Speaker 1: the end of this podcast, is going to be one

359
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Speaker 1: of our top five picks. So that will be the

360
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Speaker 1: fourth pick along with Pittsburgh plus six and a half,

361
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 1: Detroit plus seven, and hash Washington Football team plus one

362
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 1: we are watching unless we find two chalk we like better.

363
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 1: It's just I like going a couple of chalk in

364
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Speaker 1: this thing, because, like we talked all the time, the

365
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 1: public they win sometimes at the time the public is

366
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Speaker 1: gonna win their bets. So that's what I'm trying to

367
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Speaker 1: do a balancing act here with I'm trying to take

368
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Speaker 1: sharp numbers, but I'm also trying to take some public

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Speaker 1: numbers here. So well, look, another game that moved that

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Speaker 1: we talked about, um uh the other day was Carolina

371
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Speaker 1: at the Jets, and that number was it five Jets

372
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Speaker 1: plus five. The other day, you said at that number,

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Speaker 1: you might have to take the Jets. It's now down

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Speaker 1: to four Panthers minus four. I went in on the

375
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Speaker 1: Panthers at minus four this morning based on what we

376
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Speaker 1: talked about the other day. Why wouldn't we do that?

377
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 1: Like the Panthers defense is improved. I'm not a big

378
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: believer in the Jets. The theory that we have about

379
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 1: rookie coach, rookie quarterback going on the road for Trevor

380
00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 1: Lawrence and Urban Meyer applies to Robert Sala and Zack Wilson.

381
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 1: Obviously they're not favorites. They're underdogs vice versas true for

382
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:42,680
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But everything about the Panthers quarterback who is

383
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 1: in a better position, coach, who has proven it, defense

384
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 1: that has improved, it feels like a Panther's Panthers beat

385
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 1: to me, why aren't we putting that one in saving

386
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 1: our unnamed contest? It's it's five and a half. Oh god,

387
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 1: that's terrible, And then we're not putting the Jets. And um,

388
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 1: I told you on our fictional show that I like

389
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 1: the over in this game. I like Caroline at the four.

390
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 1: I think that's what the number should be. But I

391
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 1: don't want to put a lot of money on that.

392
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 1: I'd rather just take the over and just think that

393
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 1: both these offenses can score a high rate. So for me,

394
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 1: that's one of those where I do like the four.

395
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Speaker 1: I think it's a fair number, but it won't be

396
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: one of our five because we're not getting that value

397
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: in the contest. All right, Well, that reminds me, I

398
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,360
Speaker 1: gotta bet the Panthers Jets over over their total right now,

399
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 1: which forty four and a half. Wow, it's gone up

400
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 1: a little four and a half of vandel Right now,

401
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,679
Speaker 1: you've just referenced our fictional show. I should say, we

402
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 1: do a show every Sunday me during the football season.

403
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: It's me, It's Simon Hunter at Sean Kerner, It's Chris

404
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 1: Raybond and Samantha Pavidi for fantasy, Dann Revel on the

405
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: news desk. It's called Convinced Me. It's on at Action

406
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 1: Network h Q Sunday mornings at eleven, best pregame show

407
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: for the NFL. Bar none, no fluff, no sentiment, just

408
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 1: stuff that you need to get ready for fantasy, to

409
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 1: get ready for betting, to make good picks. Check it out,

410
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 1: all right, So if we're looking are we Are we

411
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 1: looking for more chalk at this point? If we have

412
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 1: four that we like, are we looking for more chalk?

413
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 1: I mean, my favorite chalk is that it is the

414
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: Green Bay in Denver, Right, so we got that Denver

415
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 1: talked about Chris and stuck. You how they talked to

416
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 1: how much they love New England. I've had a couple

417
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:33,919
Speaker 1: of professionals reach out to me they love that one

418
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: as well. You just know how I feel about rookie

419
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: quarterbacks chat. I just I hate doing it. I hate

420
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: taking rookies as favorites. And the fact that he's the

421
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: weapons they have against this Miami defense. It's just gonna

422
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 1: be so interesting to see if they can really, you know,

423
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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick can really upstage his Miami team, because I

424
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: told you Miami is that sleeper team I have this year.

425
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Speaker 1: They're one of my favorite teams coming to the season.

426
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Speaker 1: So I can't I can't let us take New England.

427
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 1: I have to stay what my my vision was for this.

428
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 1: This Miami team, I think too it takes that next step,

429
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: So I gotta stay away from this Patios one. So

430
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 1: there's not many short favorites that we're gonna find that

431
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 1: I'm gonna love chat. I'll be honest, dude, I can't

432
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 1: fucking bet the Denver Broncos I can't. It's a it's terrible.

433
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: That's a good number, though, I feel like through it.

434
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 1: I'm going through it. Let's see. By the way, I

435
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,159
Speaker 1: just do want to say this. Uh, we refer to

436
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: Stucky and Chris. Uh. That is, of course Stucky and

437
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, the analysts for the Action Network who do

438
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 1: their NFL betting preview episode every Thursday morning on the

439
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast. I got up extra early this morning

440
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 1: to listen to that, to prep for this show, to

441
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: prep for the day. It's it's fantastic. It's a great listen. Alright.

442
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: So we like Green Bed We're going against everybody in

443
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 1: the world. We are a kind of classs. I love

444
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: that about us. In fact, I'm gonna be getting close

445
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 1: to bedding Green Bay. I noticed that the line for

446
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 1: green Bay at FanDuel is now down to three and

447
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 1: a half. No, it's gonna be one with classic either.

448
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 1: I'm sharper than the sharp shedter math pie in my face,

449
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: but I know the pros are gonna come in. All

450
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 1: these reasons to come in on the Saints, but I

451
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 1: can't do it, especially some of their logic where it's like,

452
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 1: oh have you seen Aaron Rodgers last starts in Florida?

453
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, is that really what we're doing here?

454
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: So there's different things where it's just like I can't

455
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 1: listen to all the noise. That's why I try to

456
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 1: stay away from social media for football season because there's

457
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 1: just so much noise, or like it doesn't mess with

458
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: your head because it makes you question all your own thicks.

459
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,160
Speaker 1: So well, there's such a thing as splicing the pietoo

460
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: than right, like, at some point, like you can look

461
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: at every data set there is and find a reason

462
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 1: about one side or the other. So you go here. Principles.

463
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: Our principles tend to be we look for teams that

464
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,199
Speaker 1: we think are undervalued in the market. We look for

465
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: teams that are home underdogs. And we're generally sticking to

466
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 1: those principles right now. Um, like, I legit can't find

467
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: you a favorite, chat, I'm trying really hard right now

468
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 1: to find you another favorite, So don't find me a favorite.

469
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: Let's find the fifth team that we I mean, we also,

470
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: by the way, the other game that we haven't talked about.

471
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: Is Kansas City against Cleveland, which you were you were

472
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 1: very high on. Yeah, I still love it. Um, it's

473
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: just we're not getting a great line. I'm seeing it

474
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 1: at some books now it's down to five and a

475
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 1: half in our contest's minus six and a half. So

476
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: that's again, I'm just I'm just going off value where

477
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 1: I actually think six and a half is still good

478
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 1: value for the Chiefs, But for our situation, we much

479
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: rather have that five and a half for exactly what

480
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 1: we've talked about before. You can't trust kickers anymore, so

481
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 1: that that's six can be a key number where I

482
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 1: feel much more comfortable taking five and a half. But

483
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: I love the Chiefs chat. And if the Chiefs don't

484
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: cover this game, I feel like you're not gonna be

485
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: that pissed at me. But when Detroit loses by fifty points,

486
00:24:58,119 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 1: you're gonna be like, dude, what the funk was that?

487
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: By the way, I will never be like I am

488
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: all over this Detroit game, I'm all over this Houston game.

489
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: I'm all over this action football team game. And now

490
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: a word from our friends at fan Duel. The NFL

491
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 1: is back and FanDuel sports Book wants you to get

492
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,959
Speaker 1: the most out of every game with same game parlays.

493
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 1: One of the things I love about betting on football

494
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: is that I'm always finding new player or game props

495
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 1: that I like. And what's cool about Fan Duel sports

496
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 1: Book is you can combine these props with other bets

497
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: from the same game to score an even bigger payout.

498
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 1: For Tonight's Thursday night football game, a same game parley

499
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: I like is Tampa money Line and over fifty one

500
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 1: and a half based on the information from my co

501
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: host Simon and our Action Network projectionists Master Sean Kroner.

502
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: And with FanDuel, I get an easy to use app

503
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:57,359
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504
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,560
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505
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506
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507
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,600
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508
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509
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,879
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510
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511
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: dollar first deposit required, must wager in designated offer market

512
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,840
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513
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: terms at sports book dot vanduel dot com. Gambling problem

514
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com

515
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 1: slash r G in Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia one eight

516
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 1: hundred nine with it in Indiana. Visit one eight hundred

517
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: gambler dot nets in West Virginia or call one eight

518
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 1: hundred next step or text next step to five three

519
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: three two in Arizona. Let's get back to the show,

520
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: all right, we've been bouncing around the board. I want

521
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: us to get to five solid picks that we feel

522
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: great about today Again, I will caveat These could change

523
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: and we will update on Sunday. We will send them out,

524
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: we will put them in the app. We will add

525
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: notes to the app that indicate these are the ones

526
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 1: we love. These are contest worthy picks. But I still

527
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: wanted to get the survivor, and I still want us

528
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: to get the money line parlat So let's settle on

529
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: the five picks. We love the Washington football team, we

530
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 1: love Detroit, we love Pittsburgh, We're gonna lean towards Green Bay,

531
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 1: which at FanDuel is now down to three and a half.

532
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: You let's let's narrow it down. Let's make the choice

533
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: between Denver minus two and a half Kansas City minus

534
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 1: five and a half. If you're telling me those are

535
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: the two choices. I've got a team in Cleveland that

536
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: I think is already becoming overvalued. We've seen their Super

537
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 1: Bowl odds skyrocket during the offseason. They are They're getting

538
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,719
Speaker 1: way overhyped against a Super Bowl winning team from two

539
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: years ago, a super Bowl team from last year that

540
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: was missing its entire offensive line, that has the best

541
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: player in football according to the NFL Top one, has

542
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: a potential Hall of Fame career ahead of and the

543
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: line is moving in Cleveland's direction. Guy, don't tell me

544
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: I'm betting Teddy Bridgewater as a road favorite over Patrick

545
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 1: Mahomes at home in September. I would say that that's

546
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: the difference is Arrowhead. Arrowhead to me is a top

547
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 1: five stadium, especially at the fans. Let's go Chad. You

548
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: know I love the Chiefs. Bookmakers make traps for professionals.

549
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: This feels like a trap game where they're trying to

550
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: get you to take Cleveland. They're trying to sucker people

551
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 1: in here and to buy into the hype, and I'm

552
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: trying to fade that noise. So again on your six

553
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: now five and a half. I love, love, love the Chiefs,

554
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: and you Reid in September is on a streak. So

555
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 1: I told Chat, I'm putting a lot of Kansas City

556
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: chief money line into a lot of my two team parlays. Alright,

557
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: So Chiefs minus five and a half, me and Simon

558
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: against the sports betting professional wise guy World Packers minus

559
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: three and a half, Washington football team plus one, Detroit

560
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, Pittsburgh plus six and a half.

561
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: The only one we don't have in there right now

562
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: is the Texans, which are plus three. Fandal. We're gonna

563
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: keep waiting on that number and see where it ends up.

564
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: But I do I do like the plus three, you know,

565
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: I like that number. So I'm just going over all

566
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: those picks. I gotta say, is Pittsburgh are big balls

567
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: better the week? Chat? Big balls better the week that

568
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: that feels like a big balls bet. We're literally taking

569
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: a team everyone hates in Pittsburgh. All you hear about

570
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: how old Ben Roethlisberg is how bad this old line

571
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: is playing against everyone's favorite team, the Sweethearts to the NFL.

572
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: Everyone's all in on Josh Allen m v P. Everyone's

573
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 1: all in on the over of the Bills win total

574
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: eleven and a half twelve, everyone's all in on them.

575
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: One of the division, they have them coming in second

576
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: or winning the the the a f C. It's I

577
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: do like the Bills. I think they're a good team.

578
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: But regression is the name of the game. So this

579
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: is a trip up spot here. So big ball is

580
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: better than week plus six and a half. Give me

581
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh chat. Also, I think I know what our hornets

582
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: Nest game is. It's got to be the Packers and

583
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: the Saints because it's you and me walking into a

584
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 1: goddamn hornets nest against the rest of the sports betting world. Yeah,

585
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest all right now'll

586
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 1: be my companion on all of our colleagues. Everyone we

587
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: know is gonna be on the Saints, and me and

588
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: Chad were riding with Joe Public here we're gonna go

589
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: Green Bay. So this is definitely quantifies as the Hornet's

590
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: Nest This is why they call it's gambling. Everybody is

591
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: going to have an opinion and we get to be

592
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: going against the grain. I love this about us. Yeah,

593
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: and friendly reminder mean Chad had no oh and five

594
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: weeks last year, so we start their own five That

595
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: would be such amazing, amazing karma. Oh my god, Simon,

596
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: can we not even I'm so overinvested in this week.

597
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: We have so much writing on it, We got this podcast,

598
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: there's new people listening. I like dark humor. I'm so

599
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: nervous about it already. I guess I guess the only

600
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: way we can do it is confront the fear. Right,

601
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: That's it's impossible. Detroit's a lock, right chat seven and

602
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: a half. Well, all right, so let's talk about that

603
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 1: for a second, because explain to people concept of money

604
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: line parlay, which I've put several money line parlays into

605
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 1: the app. Already. You've talked about the Chiefs being in

606
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: some of your money lies, talked about what we're doing here. Yeah,

607
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: I've done some chalk money line parlays where I've done

608
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: like the Buccaneers with the Chiefs. Are, I've done Green

609
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: Bay with the Chiefs Are. I've done Green Bay and

610
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers or the Rams of the Buccaneers. It's a

611
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: little juicy. It's like minus one forty a lot of

612
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: those um to eat down that big we do. We

613
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: get a little weird here, and we like doing money

614
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: line parlays. So again, these things won't make sense, but

615
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: they hit. It's crazy to say, but these things said.

616
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 1: Last year I had the Jaguars and Washington football team.

617
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: I think it was seventeen to one, UM, because I

618
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: believe the Jaguars were a ten point underdog and Washington

619
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: was a seven point underdog playing the Eagles last year.

620
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: That hit that that it's literally seventeen to one. So

621
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: my favorite long shot money line party this week. There's

622
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: a couple of different ones, but I really like Detroit

623
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh and or you pair it up with Oakland,

624
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: which plays on the Monday night because again, yeah, Vegas. Sorry,

625
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: I'm so sorry. Uh. It's one of these things where

626
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: I like headghout opportunities. So it's it's one of those

627
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: where you know, I might throw the Chiefs and Bucks

628
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: and with a parlay with uh Las Vegas money line, um,

629
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: and I can just head you out on Monday night football.

630
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: So different things like that. Um, it's it's all about

631
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: giving yourself an extra out. So that that's what I

632
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 1: like to do with these money line parties. I like

633
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: taking long shots that I can headge out, that I

634
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: can just hit that middle number and no matter what,

635
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 1: how much did you win on that? A new football team?

636
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: Uh it was at Jacksonville parlay last year. I don't know, um,

637
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: because I do so many weird ones man like um Like,

638
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: I think the Cardinals two were like a five or

639
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: six point underdog to the forty niners last year a

640
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: week one, and like I had them in a bunch

641
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: of money line parlays too. Um again, last year was

642
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: really flukey. That was a big year of the dog.

643
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: I think dogs covered over fifty eight percent at the time. UM,

644
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: So it was a very profitable year for these money lines.

645
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: A good year, it would be, um, you know, forty

646
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: eight because if you hit that, you're up a decent

647
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 1: amount of money with these money line parlays. So I

648
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: would say last year I probably had um again we

649
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: talked about because it was COVID. I didn't have that

650
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: much money in going into the season because it was

651
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: just so much unknown. So I would say like, you know,

652
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: my take home might have been over twenty k, but

653
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: this year, if it all hits, you know, it could

654
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: be like six figures because I'm just way more invested

655
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 1: in this season coming up than I was last year.

656
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: Mm hmm, I'll take some of that. Are you ready

657
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: for the Survivor pick? I'm ready. Let's roll. Who do

658
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: we got? Okay, So me and Chad we did it

659
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: a little weird last year where we would just go

660
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: best available. We didn't really care about saving too much.

661
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: We just wanted to win each week, and then we

662
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: dealt with what happened later on. Um, we end up

663
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 1: winning a Survivor contest with the Jets. Yeah, the Jets

664
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 1: won two games last year. Me and Chad picked one

665
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 1: of them right, and we end up winning Survivor Contest

666
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: with the Jets. Let that sink out. So same thing

667
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: this year. Um, we we're just trying to just win

668
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: the first week, and I did want to take the bucks,

669
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: but then I started looking at people that we have

670
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 1: the Action Network. Our guy read and you know, he

671
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: was Travis Racings, our Survivor pool expert. He's the best,

672
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 1: and he was basically just talking about how you know,

673
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,919
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers have some really easy games later in the year. Um,

674
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 1: they're kind of on these teams you might be able

675
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: to hold onto where the Rams they don't really have

676
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 1: that many easy games. Um. Again, this game feels like

677
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 1: an incredible trap. Who who doesn't see Matthew Stafford having

678
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: a meltdown somehow against this various defense and somehow ay

679
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,919
Speaker 1: Dalton shocks the world and wins nine to three or something. Weird.

680
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,359
Speaker 1: But that's like a lesson of a five percent chance

681
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 1: of afne uh. Just by the math, if if we

682
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,439
Speaker 1: if they play this game a hundred times, we're gonna

683
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: be winning this game over seventy percent at the time.

684
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 1: So just off that alone, we probably want to take

685
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 1: the Rams here, just get it out of the way

686
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 1: because in that division, it doesn't feel like we have

687
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: that many opportunities to be taking the Rams. So for

688
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: Survivor contest, I know it's it's it's pretty scary that

689
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: we're taking a Sunday night primetime game, but we just

690
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: need to win. We don't even cover seven a half.

691
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 1: We just needed to win. So I like the Rams

692
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: here at that number. I like that the only other

693
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: one if we want to be crazy Tennessee, Oh Titans.

694
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 1: Now we'll save them for when they play the Jacker Houston.

695
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's a good point. We don't want to

696
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 1: think too much about the future, but there are certain

697
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 1: teams we're gonna try and save it for later on.

698
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,479
Speaker 1: All right, so let's go with the Rams. The Rams

699
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:08,439
Speaker 1: will be our survivor pick. Let's let's summarize here right now,

700
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: the five teams that we love the most. Chiefs minus

701
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: five and a half, Packers minus three and a half,

702
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: going against the grain. That's our that is our Hornets

703
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: Nest better the week. We like the Washington football team

704
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: plus one. We like Detroit plus seven and a half.

705
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: We like Pittsburgh plus six and a half. That is

706
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: our big Balls Better the Week here, Rams will be

707
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: our survivor team. We are loaded with money line parlays.

708
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 1: Colin and I are going to discuss all this later

709
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: today it's Thursday. We're gonna do it live on the

710
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 1: Volume YouTube channel. Uh. He's gonna give me his five picks.

711
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: I will judge them based on the professional better wise

712
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 1: guys sharp point of view, and I will give him

713
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: mine and hours as well. That podcast will later on Fridays.

714
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 1: Convince me at Action Network ah Q on Sunday's eleven

715
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 1: a m. Eastern. You should do Survivor pick I can.

716
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: I'll put a little an extra deposit in for Colin Calhary.

717
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: You should. It's on me. Just have them picked every week.

718
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: Pick a Survivor team. I'll do it. I'll tell him today.

719
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: I love I love that. Uh. Listen, you very generously

720
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 1: said if people submit their five star reviews and make

721
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: them funny, you will. We will put everyone into a

722
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,439
Speaker 1: pool and they will get a chance to win one

723
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: of your three or four whale picks best picks of

724
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: the year. Um, and so we're still getting reviews. Here's

725
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: some funny ones that made us laugh. One Best NFL

726
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 1: Betting Podcast. Matt Mitchell is collecting the names of the

727
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: people who submitted these. They will all go into a

728
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: pool and we will randomly choose Best NFL a betting podcast,

729
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 1: actual prose, giving sharp picks. You can legitimately make money

730
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: following their picks. Also, Chad is a delf. Wow, I'll

731
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: take it. I can see why you picked that one.

732
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: I'll take it. Here's another one hashtag mute chat five stars.

733
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,240
Speaker 1: Study show that a mother's voice has a soothing power

734
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 1: on a child, that we can reduce stress and increase

735
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: comfort at same power has heard in Simon Hunter's voice

736
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: when he's talking about betting on pro football. All Right,

737
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: those came from h HT and vod Zilla email podcasts

738
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: at Action network dot com. You will win a prize,

739
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: you know, some swag or something, but you were also

740
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 1: entered into the pool to win. Simon's one of his

741
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 1: big plays of the year. Simon, I think we covered

742
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: it all the first Thursday edition of the NFL season.

743
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 1: I feel good. I feel ready because like we have

744
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 1: a lot of winners chat, I'm feeling pretty pretty confident,

745
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 1: which has always doomed us in the past. So hopefully

746
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 1: by Sunday, I have tons of doubt so our picks

747
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: can come through and win. Hoping a hundred percent that

748
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 1: we turned the tide on our confidence. That is the

749
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: way to go into any situation, as has been the

750
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 1: favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network for Simon Hunter,

751
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: IM Chad Newman. Download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple

752
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: Podcasts wherever you get your podcasts until next time Tuesday

753
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 1: of next week. I love you, h