WEBVTT - Mnuchin on Next Stimulus Bill

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. Right now, I do want

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<v Speaker 1>to take you back to our Bloomberg Live event, our

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<v Speaker 1>invest Global Virtual event happening right now on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>and TV as well. We have with us joining is

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<v Speaker 1>U S Treasury Secretary Stephen Manu Shim joining David Rubinstein

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<v Speaker 1>of the Carlisle Group. He's the co founder and co

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<v Speaker 1>executive chairman. Let's listen in. I would like to do

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<v Speaker 1>a stimulus bill. Unclear whether it's uh something that other

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans want to do. On Capitol the What is your

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<v Speaker 1>view on the likelihood of another bill and what is

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<v Speaker 1>the timing for that? Well, David, it's something we're very

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<v Speaker 1>seriously considering. The President has been clear that we put

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of money into the economy. We had an

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<v Speaker 1>unprecedented response on a bipartisan basis and in the last

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<v Speaker 1>Care's bill, and there's no question that money is having

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<v Speaker 1>a major impact on the economy. Whether it's the p

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<v Speaker 1>p P which impacted fifty million workers, or whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>the direct payments of over a hundred and sixty million

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<v Speaker 1>or enhanced unemployment, these are all having an important part

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<v Speaker 1>of protecting American workers in American business. I actually just

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<v Speaker 1>left the Republican Senate lunch and we are beginning to

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<v Speaker 1>discuss the different aspects of what another bill would look like.

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<v Speaker 1>We want to take our time because number one, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of money we still haven't put out.

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<v Speaker 1>Number Two, we want to make sure whatever we do

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<v Speaker 1>going forward is much more targeted to the businesnesses that

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<v Speaker 1>are most impacted. But the timing, you think that it's

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<v Speaker 1>likely that sometime in July a bill might pass both houses.

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<v Speaker 1>I do that that would be the timing. Okay, and

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<v Speaker 1>the negotiations. There are some people who think that you

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<v Speaker 1>are not tough enough on the Democrats, and therefore some

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans are saying that you should have a partner, Mark

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<v Speaker 1>Meadows or somebody else to negotiate. But in your view,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll be the principal person negotiating with the Congress on

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<v Speaker 1>this legislation. Is that right? Well, David, I mean, let

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<v Speaker 1>me first be clear what I'm doing. I'm doing at

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<v Speaker 1>the direction of the President and the president's policies. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>last time Mark had just come on board, and I

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<v Speaker 1>asked Mark to come up with me. He was He

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<v Speaker 1>was very critical and helping with the last bill. So

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<v Speaker 1>we have a great, great teamwork and he will be

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<v Speaker 1>there with me. But let me just say I'm very

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<v Speaker 1>proud of the fact that the last two bills were

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<v Speaker 1>nine to zero and a hundred to zero. That this

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<v Speaker 1>isn't a question of being tough enough or not being

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<v Speaker 1>tough enough. We had unprecedented bipartisan support at a time

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<v Speaker 1>when it was critical to get money into the economy

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<v Speaker 1>and to help American workers. The parts that are the

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<v Speaker 1>various bills have passed so far, which do you think

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<v Speaker 1>has been the most effective so far. Uh, the p

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<v Speaker 1>p P, the unemployment insurance, Uh, the other loan programs.

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<v Speaker 1>Which are you think I think is working the best

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<v Speaker 1>so far? Well, David is as you know, because you

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<v Speaker 1>you've lived through other financial times. Uh, this is a

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<v Speaker 1>very very different situation than we've ever seen before. This

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<v Speaker 1>is the first time that we've shut down the entire

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<v Speaker 1>US economy because of a virus, and we we had

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<v Speaker 1>to have a different approach. And the reason I mean

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<v Speaker 1>a different approach was it was very important to get

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<v Speaker 1>money into the economy quickly. Things that took four or

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<v Speaker 1>five or six months, even if they in the long

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<v Speaker 1>term worked better, would not have been effective. So we

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<v Speaker 1>needed to have a range of tools, and if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the Cares Act, there were different tools that

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<v Speaker 1>we used to put massive amounts of money into the economy. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>as I just mentioned before, you had the p p P,

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<v Speaker 1>you had the direct payments, you had the unemployment. We

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<v Speaker 1>also had a program for the airlines, which was was

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<v Speaker 1>very critical. We had fifty billion dollars that we could

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<v Speaker 1>work with the Federal Reserve on the thirteen three facilities,

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<v Speaker 1>and this really worked perfect. The mirror announcement of some

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<v Speaker 1>of these facilities unlocked the markets even without spending a

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<v Speaker 1>penny of taxpayer dollars. It unlocked to the point where

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we've had unprecedented corporate issuance. Companies like Boeing,

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<v Speaker 1>which I thought we're going to need to come to

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<v Speaker 1>us in our national security program, bar twenty five billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars in the market without putting a penny of taxpayer

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<v Speaker 1>money at risk. So right now, would you say that

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<v Speaker 1>the legislation that you've passed as working reasonably well? Would

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<v Speaker 1>you say the Fed has done as good a job

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<v Speaker 1>as you would like them to do. They have an

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<v Speaker 1>lending program which I think has not yet actually spent money.

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<v Speaker 1>And can you say whether the President is happy today

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<v Speaker 1>or happier today with the Secretary with the head of

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve. Well, I think I think the Federal

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<v Speaker 1>Reserve has done a phenomenal job. We speak to them

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<v Speaker 1>almost on a daily basis. These programs are a combination

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<v Speaker 1>of work of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think we've worked very well together. Every single one

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<v Speaker 1>of these programs is now up and running. So we

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<v Speaker 1>have a municipal bond program, we have a money market program,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a commercial paper program. We have a main

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<v Speaker 1>street program that's now up and running. We have a

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<v Speaker 1>corporate primary and secondary. We had a program that lent

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<v Speaker 1>to two banks and non banks for P p P loans.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Fed acted in unprecedented response. And yes, I

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<v Speaker 1>I think you've seen the President is very please with

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<v Speaker 1>what the FETE has been doing. Okay, in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>these programs, they do cost money. So the debt of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States has increased a fair bit. I think

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<v Speaker 1>maybe four trillion dollars or something like that. Are you

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<v Speaker 1>worried about the impact of that, either on the dollar

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<v Speaker 1>or inflation? Well, David, this is this is like a war.

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<v Speaker 1>Fighting those virus is like fighting a war. And the

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<v Speaker 1>President I were determined to spend what we needed to

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<v Speaker 1>spend to protect the American workers in the American public.

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<v Speaker 1>This was not their fault. So no different than going

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<v Speaker 1>into a war. You don't say I'm gonna stop here

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<v Speaker 1>and and and deal with the consequences. I think over

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<v Speaker 1>the long term, the good news is long term interest

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<v Speaker 1>rates are very low, so the cost of this debt

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<v Speaker 1>is very low. We're borrowing a lot of money long term.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a lot of liquidity. Uh, the dollar is

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<v Speaker 1>the reserve currency of the world, so we have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of liquidity and borrowing. And yes, over time we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to need to deal with the debt. I think

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<v Speaker 1>you have to look at both the debt as a

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<v Speaker 1>percentage of GDP and a percentage of what it costs

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<v Speaker 1>to carry it. So these are things we'll look at

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<v Speaker 1>over time. In terms of the loans that are being made. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>at one point you had said it was important not

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<v Speaker 1>to reveal who the borrowers were. Recently you've said you

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<v Speaker 1>think it's okay that it's closed. Why did you change

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<v Speaker 1>your mind or why did the government change its position? Well, David,

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<v Speaker 1>let me clarify when when we negotiated these deals on

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<v Speaker 1>a bipartisan basis, we agreed to an unprecedented level of

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<v Speaker 1>transparency and oversight. And we didn't need to do this,

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<v Speaker 1>but we agreed within the federal reserve programs and within

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<v Speaker 1>the programs coming from the Treasury, the direct loans, there

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<v Speaker 1>would be complete transparency, and that was very clear. We

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<v Speaker 1>never really discussed the specifics of the p p P. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>it is true when the SBA makes seven A loans,

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<v Speaker 1>they are transparent. The issue here was you had businesses

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<v Speaker 1>that took loans based upon their payroll and and no

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<v Speaker 1>different we're not publicizing everybody's name who is getting enhanced unemployment.

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<v Speaker 1>We wanted to make sure we protected small businesses the

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<v Speaker 1>confidentiality of their payroll. So I think we've struck the

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<v Speaker 1>appropriate balance on protection and transparency. And what we just

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<v Speaker 1>agreed on a bipartisan basis with the SBA Committee is

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<v Speaker 1>that we would release the names on about seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the dollars and about twenty of the actual loans,

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<v Speaker 1>So that's all loans above a hundred and fifty thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll put them in buckets, so you don't know

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<v Speaker 1>the exact size, but we'll bucket them. Uh, there'll be

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<v Speaker 1>you know, one fifty to three fifty. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a million to two million, five million to ten million,

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<v Speaker 1>various different buckets. And on the very small loans a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty thousand and below or at least the

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<v Speaker 1>detales of the names, but not the borrowers. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think we got to an important compromise of transparency on

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<v Speaker 1>the majority of the money with the idea of protecting

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<v Speaker 1>very small businesses sold proprietors and and and others confidentiality. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>in this quarter, we have slipped into our recession. And

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<v Speaker 1>according to the Natural Bureau Economic Research, which makes the

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<v Speaker 1>official determinations and when you're in a recession or not,

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<v Speaker 1>do you think by the end of this year we

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<v Speaker 1>might be out of the recession, David, I I do,

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<v Speaker 1>But the the traditional economic metrics are aren't really appropriate

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<v Speaker 1>given we shut down the economy. So first, let me

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<v Speaker 1>say there were way too many people that lost their

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<v Speaker 1>jobs and got laid off, and again, we're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to be done until we get every single one of

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<v Speaker 1>those people back to work. So I'm not really focused

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<v Speaker 1>on the technical issue of it is a recession or

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a recession. I'm focused on helping all these

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<v Speaker 1>small businesses and all the workers, and that that's what

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<v Speaker 1>our job. And I think you saw the recent employment numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>People thought there'd be another eight million people unemployed. We

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<v Speaker 1>put two and a half million people back to work. Clearly,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the p P P working. And you saw

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<v Speaker 1>a great retail sales. I think you're gonna see the

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<v Speaker 1>economy had a very bad second quarter. I think you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in

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<v Speaker 1>the third quarter. And some people who have been gotten

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<v Speaker 1>the p PP loans are very happy with them, but

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<v Speaker 1>they say it's unclear whether they have to repay them

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<v Speaker 1>or not. Will the s b A clarify who actually

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<v Speaker 1>has to repay or not repay those loans. Well, the

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<v Speaker 1>good news is again I think we struck the right

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<v Speaker 1>balance here and for for all loans that are less

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<v Speaker 1>than two million dollars, we created a safe harbor around

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<v Speaker 1>the certification unless there's things like fraud. And for loans

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<v Speaker 1>over two million, they're going to go through an electronic

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<v Speaker 1>review do to make sure that the companies needed the

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<v Speaker 1>money in the certification, and I think that would be

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<v Speaker 1>a very fair process as we go through that, if

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<v Speaker 1>you owe taxes on April fifteen, you could file on July.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there any consideration, as some people have speculated that

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<v Speaker 1>it might be postponed once again to maybe September fift Well, David,

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<v Speaker 1>it's something I'm thinking about. As of now, we're not

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<v Speaker 1>intending on doing that, but it is something we may consider.

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<v Speaker 1>I am pleased to report that I think it was

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely the right thing to do at the time, because

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<v Speaker 1>we were absolutely worried about people couldn't get to their

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<v Speaker 1>accountants couldn't get their information. And I'm pleased to report

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<v Speaker 1>that returns filed or down only ten percent year over year,

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<v Speaker 1>and refunds are down only ten pc. So the majority

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<v Speaker 1>of Americans have filed the mad already. Those people that

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<v Speaker 1>needed to get refunds got them. I'd encourage all Americans,

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<v Speaker 1>if you can file your tax returns, go ahead and

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<v Speaker 1>do it, particularly if you think you have a refund,

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<v Speaker 1>and we will look carefully as we we approached this

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<v Speaker 1>July day. Okay, now, you've talked about shutting down the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>which obviously we had to do and was done, but

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<v Speaker 1>you've also said recently that we can't do it again

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<v Speaker 1>because we just can't afford to do it. So are

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<v Speaker 1>you worried that new COVID cases are breaking out in

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<v Speaker 1>states like Florida or Texas and how will you deal

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<v Speaker 1>with that in terms of opening up the economy again

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<v Speaker 1>but also protecting the safety of people. Well, David, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the President made the absolute right decision. Was a

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult decision in shutting down the entire economy. The

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<v Speaker 1>issues that we were concerned about at the time were

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<v Speaker 1>hospitals were getting way overcrowded. We had issues of ventilators,

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<v Speaker 1>and we had issues of not having enough medicines. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, kind of. We had an unprecedented effort,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in places like New York, where we built out

0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 1>extra hospital beds in the convention center. We sent the

0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Navy ship there to be ready as a hospital in

0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>The good news is those never needed to be used. Um.

0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:19.360
<v Speaker 1>Right now, we're in a different situation. Right now, we

0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:23.000
<v Speaker 1>have plenty of capacity, We've got plenty of ventilators, We've

0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 1>made great progress on viral treatments, and we've had made

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.960
<v Speaker 1>great progress on testing. So I think this is going

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:33.760
<v Speaker 1>to be an issue that we have to look at

0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 1>on a local by local basis. Where there are breakouts,

0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:41.440
<v Speaker 1>they'll they'll be contract tracing UM. And I think we're

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 1>just in a completely different situation. So I I think

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>it would be highly unlikely we get to a point

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>where we need to shut the economy down again. Okay,

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:53.479
<v Speaker 1>you were one of the principal negotiators with Bob Leheiser

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.280
<v Speaker 1>of the deal with China. Are you confident that the

0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 1>Chinese can honor the commitments to buy the products from

0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:02.160
<v Speaker 1>the United States that they agreed too. I have every

0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 1>expectation that they will. They have continued to tell us

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:11.119
<v Speaker 1>that they will, as recently as last week when Secretary

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:15.400
<v Speaker 1>of Pompeio met with one of the senior people that

0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:18.840
<v Speaker 1>flew in from China and they had a summit. So

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 1>I have that I have that expectation that they will

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:25.120
<v Speaker 1>lead up to their obligation. Now having said that, UM,

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>let me just comment on I think the world wants

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:33.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot more transparency on COVID. How did it start,

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>how did it spread, how did it spread around the world,

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 1>And it didn't spread within China, So we shouldn't confuse

0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 1>these two issues. Yes, we have expectations that they will

0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>live up to their trade agreements, but we also have

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.560
<v Speaker 1>expectations they need a lot more transparency around the disease.

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.520
<v Speaker 1>There is not more transparency. Do you think there will

0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 1>be a decoupling with the Chinese economy and the US economy.

0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.080
<v Speaker 1>I think you have talked about that recently, but you

0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.160
<v Speaker 1>see that as being separate in the trade agreement. But

0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.200
<v Speaker 1>are you worried about or you think it could be

0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>appropriate to have a decoupling at some point? Well, I

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 1>don't want to speculate, David, it could, Um, I think

0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:12.760
<v Speaker 1>you have a lot of companies that are beginning to

0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 1>look at their supply chains and making sure they diversify them,

0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's something that's prudent to do wherever

0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>they are around the world. You have a lot of

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>companies that are looking at bringing jobs back to the

0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:27.880
<v Speaker 1>US because of our tax incentives in other areas. As

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 1>we have said all along, if we can compete with

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 1>China on a fair and level playing field, it is

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>a great opportunity for US businesses and US workers, as

0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:43.240
<v Speaker 1>China has a large, growing middle class several hundred million people.

0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:47.200
<v Speaker 1>But if we can't participate and compete on on a

0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 1>fair basis, then you are going to see a decoupling

0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 1>going forward. So the Chinese government is thinking about changing

0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 1>the ways in which it operates and overseas Hong Kong.

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:03.200
<v Speaker 1>The President has been concerned about that, so has Secretary Pompeio.

0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.160
<v Speaker 1>If the Chinese government were to go forward with legislations considering,

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:09.840
<v Speaker 1>do you think the US government might impose some type

0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:14.120
<v Speaker 1>of sanctions to show its disapproval of what's going on? Well, David,

0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:17.040
<v Speaker 1>it's it's our policy. We don't comment on future sanctions.

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:20.640
<v Speaker 1>But what I will comment on is the President and

0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:22.920
<v Speaker 1>This was a few weeks ago. It is Rose Gardens

0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:26.960
<v Speaker 1>speech instructed me to convene what's called the President's Working

0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 1>Group on Capital Markets. This is myself and all the

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:34.440
<v Speaker 1>major regulators, and we're looking at all of these issues

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>very carefully as it relates to both Hong Kong and

0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 1>as it relates to UH Chinese issuance on on the

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:44.520
<v Speaker 1>US exchanges. Hey, now, recently there was a report that

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:46.480
<v Speaker 1>we're running out of not running out of, but we're

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 1>having a little uh less demand for less supply. I

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 1>should say up coins. We have a lot of dollar

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.560
<v Speaker 1>bills I guess in circulation, but because of COVID, we

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>don't have as many coins. So what are you gonna

0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 1>do about that? Well, David, let me first say I

0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:04.520
<v Speaker 1>want to thank the hard working men and women at

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.679
<v Speaker 1>the buer of engraving and at the mint UH and

0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 1>that that's where we make both the money and where

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:13.440
<v Speaker 1>we make the coins. And through this entire period they

0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.480
<v Speaker 1>didn't shut down production. In matter of fact, as it

0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:22.600
<v Speaker 1>relates to UH circulating money UH in in bills, we

0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:26.159
<v Speaker 1>had unprecedented deliveries to the Federal Reserve which they were

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.760
<v Speaker 1>able to put into the various banks as it relates

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:33.919
<v Speaker 1>to coins, because so business, so many businesses shut down,

0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:38.159
<v Speaker 1>a lot of coins got stuck in in the system.

0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.679
<v Speaker 1>So we we got a little bit far behind on coins.

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:42.920
<v Speaker 1>But I know they're redoubling their efforts and that that'll

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:46.320
<v Speaker 1>workout fine. I have a lot of pennies and quarters

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.679
<v Speaker 1>at my house. Maybe I can drop them off somewhere

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:50.720
<v Speaker 1>and help them some loudest way. I'll let you know,

0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>So ask as many as you have, David. I know

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:58.359
<v Speaker 1>you've got plenty of them, okay. So, Um, being Secretary

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:00.919
<v Speaker 1>of the Treasury in a normal time is not easy,

0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 1>very busy, one of the most important jobs in Washington

0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:06.200
<v Speaker 1>or in the country. But during this time you've been,

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:08.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, working around the clock. Have you had any

0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:13.000
<v Speaker 1>time to just breathe, any time to see your family?

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.080
<v Speaker 1>How are you? Are you working out of your office,

0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:16.840
<v Speaker 1>You're working out of your home? How are you getting

0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.679
<v Speaker 1>through this period of time? I'm working out of the Treasury,

0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.000
<v Speaker 1>So basically every day I go from my home to

0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.360
<v Speaker 1>the Treasury, to the White House, which is right next door,

0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:28.919
<v Speaker 1>and back. Um, we we've had about a hundred and

0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:32.520
<v Speaker 1>fifty people working around the clock in in the Treasury

0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>and the rest of the people working telecommuting. I think,

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.080
<v Speaker 1>like a lot of businesses, we were actually pleasantly surprised

0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.639
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of areas we could effectively work by telework.

0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:44.800
<v Speaker 1>There were other areas like the I R s where

0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:47.200
<v Speaker 1>it was much harder to do certain things. You can't

0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:50.320
<v Speaker 1>open the mail. We had truckloads of mail back up

0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.199
<v Speaker 1>in physical returns and audits. But uh, I want to

0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:58.440
<v Speaker 1>thank we had an enormous uh group of people here

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 1>that have been working around the class and uh, I'll

0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.000
<v Speaker 1>have plenty of time to rest down down the road.

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:08.200
<v Speaker 1>My family understands that percise there's any time it just

0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:10.639
<v Speaker 1>just relax, a little bit of walk or exercise, or

0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:12.399
<v Speaker 1>you have no time for that, trying to do a

0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.040
<v Speaker 1>little bit of exercise. Never enough, but trying to do

0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:19.199
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. So as you go forward, UM, you

0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>obviously enjoy the job, and you obviously are well respected

0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.159
<v Speaker 1>by many of your colleagues. UM. So, if President Trump

0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 1>is reelected, would you be interested in serving another four

0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:31.359
<v Speaker 1>years in this position? Yes, David, as I said before,

0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 1>I would be, But that's for the president to decide, Okay,

0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.760
<v Speaker 1>And going forward, what kind of advice would you give

0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:41.600
<v Speaker 1>to anybody else who serves as Secretary Treasury at some

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:44.120
<v Speaker 1>point what is the best thing to do and what's

0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:48.640
<v Speaker 1>the thing you should avoid being doing as Secretary Treasury. Well,

0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the interesting part about Secretary of Treasury is it spans

0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 1>across so many different parts of the government. So a

0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:59.480
<v Speaker 1>large part of the job is domestic and international finance.

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:02.440
<v Speaker 1>Very big part of the job is just operational. We

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.440
<v Speaker 1>we we manage a lot of the payment processing, obviously,

0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:08.840
<v Speaker 1>all the borrowings for the government, and something that I

0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:10.640
<v Speaker 1>spent a lot of my time on and I think

0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:13.399
<v Speaker 1>I've talked about this before. Prior to COVID, I was

0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 1>probably spending fifty percent of my time on national security

0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:21.320
<v Speaker 1>issues because sanctions have been such an important part of

0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:26.240
<v Speaker 1>our national security strategy. And despite John Poulton's comments in

0:20:26.280 --> 0:20:28.879
<v Speaker 1>the books complaining that I didn't do enough sanctions, it's

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.520
<v Speaker 1>really somewhat ridiculous since under President Trump we've done more

0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:37.679
<v Speaker 1>sanctions than any previous administrations combined. But we've had a

0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:42.240
<v Speaker 1>very unified approach myself, Secretary Pompeo, d O D, and

0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:44.680
<v Speaker 1>the c i A as to how we approached the

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:49.240
<v Speaker 1>national security issues. Hey, the stock market is roughly where

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:51.919
<v Speaker 1>it was before we went into the recession. Why do

0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>you think the stock market seems to be so ebulliant

0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:57.080
<v Speaker 1>relatively strong when the economy is not as strong as

0:20:57.080 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 1>a stock market. That has that been a surprise to

0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.040
<v Speaker 1>you as somebody who used to spend a lot of

0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:04.520
<v Speaker 1>time in the markets, Well, David, having spent a lot

0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:06.800
<v Speaker 1>of time in the markets, as I always like to say,

0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:09.639
<v Speaker 1>I'm not good at predicting where they are going to

0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:13.119
<v Speaker 1>be tomorrow or next week. I am good at predicting

0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:16.200
<v Speaker 1>where they're going to be in the future. I think

0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:18.439
<v Speaker 1>what you've seen and first let me just say the

0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:22.560
<v Speaker 1>stock market is a market of stocks. So certain stocks

0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:26.000
<v Speaker 1>have done phenomenally well. You look at companies like Apple

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:29.159
<v Speaker 1>that are great companies, and and again Covid is not

0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:32.200
<v Speaker 1>going to have a giant impact on their business and

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:34.679
<v Speaker 1>they're a technology leader. You look at some of the

0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:39.680
<v Speaker 1>retailers and that they've had a pretty difficult situation. Uh,

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.960
<v Speaker 1>if you haven't been a major retailer, you know you

0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:46.320
<v Speaker 1>had your stores closed, You're already dealing with online issues.

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:50.639
<v Speaker 1>And the fact that interest rates came down obviously also

0:21:50.840 --> 0:21:54.719
<v Speaker 1>changes valuations. But I think the bigger issue is the

0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:58.200
<v Speaker 1>US is the still the bright spark of the economic

0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:01.840
<v Speaker 1>growth around the world. Beloved confidence that our economy is

0:22:01.840 --> 0:22:04.119
<v Speaker 1>going to come back in the third and fourth quarter,

0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:08.960
<v Speaker 1>and people want to invest in the US. So as

0:22:09.040 --> 0:22:10.840
<v Speaker 1>part of a new bill, if a bill does go

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:14.480
<v Speaker 1>through Congress, would infrastructure be part of the President is

0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:16.600
<v Speaker 1>talked about having an infrastructure bill. Would that be a

0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:19.440
<v Speaker 1>separate or would that possibly part of our stimulus bill

0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:22.320
<v Speaker 1>or a relief bill. I think, as you know, the

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:25.960
<v Speaker 1>President has been very interested in infrastructure since the campaign.

0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:29.280
<v Speaker 1>It's something we've been talking about on a bipartisan basis.

0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:34.160
<v Speaker 1>The President's interested in roads and bridges and tunnels, and

0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 1>we continue to have those conversations. The issue with infrastructure

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:41.560
<v Speaker 1>is normally these are not shovel ready. So normally these

0:22:41.720 --> 0:22:44.120
<v Speaker 1>even if we pass something, this isn't going to impact

0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:47.439
<v Speaker 1>getting people back to work in September and October. So

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:50.120
<v Speaker 1>I think that the likelihood is the CARES the next

0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:52.639
<v Speaker 1>Care's bill, is going to be very focused on. We

0:22:52.680 --> 0:22:56.000
<v Speaker 1>want to make sure that twenty million people that don't

0:22:56.040 --> 0:22:58.480
<v Speaker 1>have jobs because of COVID get back to work, and

0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:00.240
<v Speaker 1>that's going to be our focus, and for them to

0:23:00.240 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 1>get back to work quickly. How do you keep up

0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 1>with your colleagues around the world. Who are the finance

0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:09.879
<v Speaker 1>ministers of major countries that we have relationships with? You

0:23:09.960 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 1>regularly consult with them or you do it one on one.

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 1>How do you do that right now during this crisis. Well,

0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:19.080
<v Speaker 1>I have very good relationships with a lot of my counterparts,

0:23:19.119 --> 0:23:22.199
<v Speaker 1>so I do speak to them on a regular basis. Also,

0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:25.600
<v Speaker 1>this year, UH, the United States is chairing the G

0:23:25.760 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 1>seven presidency, so I convene pretty much every other week

0:23:30.960 --> 0:23:34.960
<v Speaker 1>a call of the G seven finance ministers, your deputies.

0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 1>We tend to rotate, so we're we're in direct communication.

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:40.000
<v Speaker 1>And one of the things I've said to all of

0:23:40.040 --> 0:23:43.440
<v Speaker 1>them is now it's even more important than ever that

0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:47.520
<v Speaker 1>we are working together as we all battle this disease

0:23:47.680 --> 0:23:51.960
<v Speaker 1>and focus on rebuilding our economies. So do you worry

0:23:52.000 --> 0:23:56.520
<v Speaker 1>about the impact of COVID on the emerging markets, which uh,

0:23:56.640 --> 0:23:59.240
<v Speaker 1>you know have a different currency which is relatively weaker

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:02.200
<v Speaker 1>against the dollar recent months, or so are you worried

0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:05.639
<v Speaker 1>about the economies uh in those countries being able to

0:24:05.680 --> 0:24:07.800
<v Speaker 1>repay debt that they may owe to people in the

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:12.720
<v Speaker 1>United States. Well, I am worried about that. We're doing

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:14.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot of work at the I m F and

0:24:14.720 --> 0:24:17.800
<v Speaker 1>the World Bank on those economies. We've we've created a

0:24:17.840 --> 0:24:22.240
<v Speaker 1>debt moratorium for the particularly poor countries because what they're

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:26.760
<v Speaker 1>going through, and that that's something we are definitely focused on,

0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:30.040
<v Speaker 1>is is working with the poorest countries. Were also very

0:24:30.080 --> 0:24:33.919
<v Speaker 1>focused on what we call debt transparency, making sure that

0:24:34.000 --> 0:24:37.600
<v Speaker 1>it's transparent when country is borrow whether it's from China

0:24:37.880 --> 0:24:41.280
<v Speaker 1>or Europe or anywhere in the world, that there's transparency

0:24:41.520 --> 0:24:46.480
<v Speaker 1>into the situation. Now, in the last recession ten years

0:24:46.480 --> 0:24:49.320
<v Speaker 1>ago or so, the banks were in pretty big trouble

0:24:49.359 --> 0:24:51.760
<v Speaker 1>and they had to be in effect given additional capital

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:54.560
<v Speaker 1>by the United States at some points. Um right now,

0:24:54.720 --> 0:24:56.399
<v Speaker 1>you think the banks are in very good shape and

0:24:56.440 --> 0:25:00.680
<v Speaker 1>our financial institutions are safe and strong despite the COVID crisis.

0:25:01.920 --> 0:25:05.320
<v Speaker 1>I do, David, Unlike last time, as you said, the

0:25:05.359 --> 0:25:09.199
<v Speaker 1>bank capital rules have changed, the mix of their books

0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:12.240
<v Speaker 1>have changed. You don't have these problems mortgages that you

0:25:12.320 --> 0:25:16.280
<v Speaker 1>had last time. Underwriting has gotten much better. So the

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:19.320
<v Speaker 1>banks had very good capital and very good liquidity coming

0:25:19.359 --> 0:25:23.199
<v Speaker 1>into this. And I think what we've seen is in

0:25:23.280 --> 0:25:27.359
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of COVID there was a big run to

0:25:27.480 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 1>draw revolvers, and I think we've seen a lot less

0:25:31.119 --> 0:25:33.600
<v Speaker 1>of that. And my understanding of speaking to the major

0:25:33.640 --> 0:25:38.360
<v Speaker 1>bank CEO is the typical mid market companies again, if

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:41.520
<v Speaker 1>they're not in retail and entertainment and restaurants, if they're

0:25:41.520 --> 0:25:43.919
<v Speaker 1>not in the areas that are particularly hard hit, have

0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:48.879
<v Speaker 1>a reason amount of liquidity and borrowing power. So the

0:25:48.920 --> 0:25:52.280
<v Speaker 1>first Treasury Secretary was Alexander Hamilton's and you probably have

0:25:52.320 --> 0:25:54.720
<v Speaker 1>seen the play Hamilton's. So do you ever get any

0:25:54.880 --> 0:25:57.480
<v Speaker 1>whispers at night from the ghost of Hamilton's saying you're

0:25:57.480 --> 0:25:59.199
<v Speaker 1>doing a good job, or do this, or do that,

0:25:59.320 --> 0:26:02.560
<v Speaker 1>or you just imagine what he might be recommending that

0:26:02.600 --> 0:26:05.520
<v Speaker 1>you do all the time, David, I got I got

0:26:05.520 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>a big portrait of him. He stares at me at

0:26:08.080 --> 0:26:13.919
<v Speaker 1>my desk and occasionally he gives me some good advice. Okay, Steve,

0:26:14.240 --> 0:26:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Mr Secretary, thank you very much for your time. I

0:26:16.640 --> 0:26:19.679
<v Speaker 1>appreciate your giving us your insights and good luck on

0:26:19.680 --> 0:26:24.879
<v Speaker 1>all the things you're working on. Thank you. David. All right,

0:26:24.920 --> 0:26:28.080
<v Speaker 1>you've been listening to our Bloomberg Live invest Global virtual event.

0:26:28.119 --> 0:26:31.600
<v Speaker 1>The Carlisle Group's co founder and co executive chairman, David

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Rubinstein catching up with our U S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Minution,

0:26:36.520 --> 0:26:39.320
<v Speaker 1>and of course some of the key headlines, uh were

0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:44.320
<v Speaker 1>a bunch actually a lot listening. Um are talking about

0:26:44.320 --> 0:26:48.359
<v Speaker 1>the economy, um, he said. The Secretary said that they

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:52.160
<v Speaker 1>are very seriously considering another stimulus and that they discussed

0:26:52.200 --> 0:26:56.280
<v Speaker 1>aspects of a net of another stimulus bill with senators

0:26:56.320 --> 0:26:59.240
<v Speaker 1>and said it could pass possibly by July. He did

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:01.960
<v Speaker 1>talk us at Terry Stephen Monution about it being more

0:27:01.960 --> 0:27:05.200
<v Speaker 1>targeted to those businesses who need it. He also talked

0:27:05.200 --> 0:27:08.119
<v Speaker 1>about the economic outlook and said he does expect, like

0:27:08.200 --> 0:27:10.840
<v Speaker 1>many that we talked to here on Bloomberg, that there

0:27:10.880 --> 0:27:12.840
<v Speaker 1>would be a bad second quarter and thinks that we

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:16.760
<v Speaker 1>will see a spectacular rebound off of the third quarter.

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:19.919
<v Speaker 1>Does think that we will be out of a recession

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:21.959
<v Speaker 1>by the end of the year. But then went on

0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 1>to certainly point out about how we need to watch

0:27:26.040 --> 0:27:27.960
<v Speaker 1>all of those that will still be out of works

0:27:28.400 --> 0:27:30.600
<v Speaker 1>out of work. One more thing, though highly unlikely that

0:27:30.640 --> 0:27:32.479
<v Speaker 1>we will get to a point where we would have

0:27:32.520 --> 0:27:34.600
<v Speaker 1>to shut down the economy again. This on a day

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:38.320
<v Speaker 1>when we continue to see spikes and virus cases around

0:27:38.480 --> 0:27:41.240
<v Speaker 1>the country. All right, be sure to check out Bloomberg

0:27:41.280 --> 0:27:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Live on the Bloomberg Terminal for more of these conversations

0:27:44.560 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 1>from our invest Global Virtual event. This is Bloomberg Business

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:53.040
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

0:27:55.040 --> 0:27:58.240
<v Speaker 1>You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Jason Kelly

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:03.600
<v Speaker 1>wandering into the studio. Yarl mass does this started to Yeah,

0:28:03.600 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 1>it starts at too. You missed two killer interviews, Um,

0:28:06.280 --> 0:28:08.560
<v Speaker 1>but I know you'll catch up later. Certainly, the US

0:28:08.600 --> 0:28:12.080
<v Speaker 1>Treasury Secretor Stephen Manustion just wrapping up with David Rubinstein,

0:28:12.119 --> 0:28:14.200
<v Speaker 1>and then we heard from Carmen Reinhardt of the World Bank,

0:28:14.280 --> 0:28:18.280
<v Speaker 1>so lots of talk about the outlook. I feel like

0:28:18.320 --> 0:28:22.600
<v Speaker 1>Carmen Reinhardt a little bit more cautious than Stephen Manution. Yeah,

0:28:22.720 --> 0:28:26.240
<v Speaker 1>well that probably checks out, right. I mean, I guess

0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:30.639
<v Speaker 1>nuctions job to be a little uh enthusiastic, right, Yeah,

0:28:30.760 --> 0:28:33.080
<v Speaker 1>absolutely so we did feel that. And there's talk of

0:28:33.119 --> 0:28:35.720
<v Speaker 1>another stimulus, as you know, that's certainly given some support

0:28:36.040 --> 0:28:38.640
<v Speaker 1>to the financial markets. We do need to get into

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:43.840
<v Speaker 1>though our Bloomberg economics today because what's interesting is, you know,

0:28:44.000 --> 0:28:45.840
<v Speaker 1>we know, Jason, you and I have talked about how

0:28:45.840 --> 0:28:49.880
<v Speaker 1>Americans have managed to put aside some money in savings

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:52.360
<v Speaker 1>in this shutdown, Right, you're not out there spending as

0:28:52.440 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 1>much money maybe as you you were in the past.

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:57.120
<v Speaker 1>That's the good news. The bad news is, as Bloomberg

0:28:57.120 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 1>News Personal Finance editor Ben Steve Berman reports, it may

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:03.160
<v Speaker 1>not be enough to get Americans through the aftermath, and

0:29:03.200 --> 0:29:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Ben joins us for today's Business Week Economics. He's on

0:29:06.000 --> 0:29:08.640
<v Speaker 1>the phone in New York City. Ben, So, what's going

0:29:08.680 --> 0:29:13.280
<v Speaker 1>on here? Well, for the longest time, economists have been

0:29:13.280 --> 0:29:16.080
<v Speaker 1>worried about the fact that there's a big chunk of

0:29:16.120 --> 0:29:19.320
<v Speaker 1>Americans that just don't seem to be saving very much money.

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:22.840
<v Speaker 1>So if you ask people, can you handle a four

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollar expense, about two and five americans say no. Actually,

0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:31.200
<v Speaker 1>if I if that came along, if I had a

0:29:31.240 --> 0:29:33.200
<v Speaker 1>car repair bill or something, I would actually have to

0:29:33.200 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 1>go into credit card debt to handle it. I don't

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:37.280
<v Speaker 1>have four hundred dollars in cash sitting around. And that

0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 1>was before this crisis. So when this crisis hit, there's

0:29:42.200 --> 0:29:43.959
<v Speaker 1>a bit there's been a lot of worry about like

0:29:44.200 --> 0:29:46.480
<v Speaker 1>what what is this going to do? Especially if it

0:29:46.520 --> 0:29:49.960
<v Speaker 1>goes on too long. So, as you said, right now,

0:29:50.240 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 1>things look pretty good. There's government stimulus, money has gone

0:29:53.840 --> 0:29:57.959
<v Speaker 1>out and people just aren't spending as much money. But um,

0:29:58.080 --> 0:30:01.000
<v Speaker 1>my story is just basically about what happened as time

0:30:01.080 --> 0:30:03.560
<v Speaker 1>goes on, and there's some reasons to really worry about

0:30:03.560 --> 0:30:09.280
<v Speaker 1>American households. Yeah, I mean the numbers here are really scary,

0:30:09.320 --> 0:30:14.960
<v Speaker 1>as you say, Ben, So what is the I mean,

0:30:15.040 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 1>is there a remedy here? I mean the market is

0:30:17.080 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 1>Carol mentioned is rising on the possibility of more stimulus.

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Is more stimulus than the answer or what happens? I

0:30:26.600 --> 0:30:29.640
<v Speaker 1>think I think more stimulus is definitely part of it.

0:30:29.720 --> 0:30:33.240
<v Speaker 1>That the real problem these households are facing is so

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:36.240
<v Speaker 1>you have people that aren't saving, right, but you actually

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:40.440
<v Speaker 1>be surprised that um, about half the people who live

0:30:40.760 --> 0:30:43.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of hand a mouth that they're not able to save,

0:30:43.480 --> 0:30:46.479
<v Speaker 1>but half of them actually have some middle class wealth.

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:49.320
<v Speaker 1>They're actually middle class or not poor. And that's because

0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:51.520
<v Speaker 1>what they're doing is they're putting a lot of their

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:55.440
<v Speaker 1>wealth in retirement accounts and in their homes, and then

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:58.920
<v Speaker 1>that just makes it so much harder to access that money,

0:30:59.560 --> 0:31:03.240
<v Speaker 1>um in an emergency. Basically, it's the same liquidity problems

0:31:03.240 --> 0:31:05.920
<v Speaker 1>we face in the financial crisis for for banks, this

0:31:06.000 --> 0:31:09.320
<v Speaker 1>is the same liquidity problems households are potentially going to

0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:12.920
<v Speaker 1>face if there isn't the kind of stimulus, isn't the

0:31:13.040 --> 0:31:15.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of um are the are the kind of benefits

0:31:15.960 --> 0:31:18.520
<v Speaker 1>for safety unemployed or for small business owners that are

0:31:18.520 --> 0:31:21.440
<v Speaker 1>shut down? Um? If those things go away, then then

0:31:21.440 --> 0:31:23.880
<v Speaker 1>households are going to be really having to do things

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:27.040
<v Speaker 1>like cash out of retirement accounts, which we could mean

0:31:27.080 --> 0:31:30.719
<v Speaker 1>selling at the exact wrong time. It could mean taking

0:31:30.720 --> 0:31:35.600
<v Speaker 1>out uh, you know, home equity loans, even selling homes um,

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:38.760
<v Speaker 1>just just to be able to survive. Yeah, And that's

0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:41.160
<v Speaker 1>the that's the tough part. Right. So even if they've

0:31:41.200 --> 0:31:43.560
<v Speaker 1>created some wealth, whether it's in their retirement accounts or

0:31:43.600 --> 0:31:46.200
<v Speaker 1>even in their homes, they may be forced to tap

0:31:46.280 --> 0:31:49.320
<v Speaker 1>into the into that and that's really unfortunate, right because

0:31:49.640 --> 0:31:52.520
<v Speaker 1>those are the things that are going to carry them

0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 1>in those later years as they get older. Right. And

0:31:56.360 --> 0:31:58.800
<v Speaker 1>the really troubling thing is is when this is happening

0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:00.840
<v Speaker 1>to say people in their fifth these are sixties who

0:32:00.880 --> 0:32:04.120
<v Speaker 1>are getting close to retirement, they don't have time to

0:32:04.280 --> 0:32:07.760
<v Speaker 1>go have a new career um and restart that that

0:32:07.880 --> 0:32:10.680
<v Speaker 1>four ohn K like the money and there is really

0:32:10.760 --> 0:32:13.400
<v Speaker 1>valuable to them, and um, you could really have some

0:32:13.520 --> 0:32:16.400
<v Speaker 1>people who are getting close to retirement who really have

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 1>have a lot to worry about. Well, and it must

0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:21.440
<v Speaker 1>be frustrating for a lot of folks been because in

0:32:21.600 --> 0:32:24.400
<v Speaker 1>some ways, you know, saving for retirement, I mean we

0:32:24.400 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 1>were sort of beaten, were we beat people into that

0:32:28.360 --> 0:32:30.160
<v Speaker 1>rights like save your money, save your money, put it,

0:32:30.440 --> 0:32:33.240
<v Speaker 1>put it aside. And so to be in this situation

0:32:33.320 --> 0:32:38.200
<v Speaker 1>where folks have to dip into that is uh, beyond disappointing.

0:32:38.240 --> 0:32:42.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's troubling to some extent. Yeah, And there's

0:32:42.520 --> 0:32:44.880
<v Speaker 1>some really good policy questions about that, like should we

0:32:44.960 --> 0:32:48.400
<v Speaker 1>be encouraging so much retirement, so much retirement savings that

0:32:48.480 --> 0:32:51.520
<v Speaker 1>they have the expensive day on a rainy day fund?

0:32:51.520 --> 0:32:53.000
<v Speaker 1>And there are actually some people who say, hey, we

0:32:53.040 --> 0:32:55.200
<v Speaker 1>should really be encouraging middle class people to have these

0:32:55.280 --> 0:32:57.640
<v Speaker 1>randy day funds somehow maybe you can kind of keep

0:32:57.680 --> 0:33:00.640
<v Speaker 1>it off limits somehow, but we you get people to

0:33:00.640 --> 0:33:03.360
<v Speaker 1>save for emergencies like like as I said, like a

0:33:03.360 --> 0:33:06.400
<v Speaker 1>car repair build. If you can't handle a four dollar expense,

0:33:06.480 --> 0:33:10.560
<v Speaker 1>that's really a problem for getting to work every day potentially,

0:33:11.320 --> 0:33:14.440
<v Speaker 1>and so um, but really I don't. I'm not I

0:33:14.440 --> 0:33:16.640
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't blame any of these people for for putting all

0:33:16.680 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 1>their money retirement accounts. And I mean there's there's a

0:33:19.480 --> 0:33:22.680
<v Speaker 1>tax incentive to do so for both of those things,

0:33:23.320 --> 0:33:25.520
<v Speaker 1>and and you're actually going to get a higher rate

0:33:25.560 --> 0:33:28.320
<v Speaker 1>of return if you do that, as long as nothing

0:33:28.320 --> 0:33:30.360
<v Speaker 1>goes wrong. And of course what's happening now is something

0:33:30.360 --> 0:33:32.520
<v Speaker 1>went wrong, and we're not even tapping those people who

0:33:32.600 --> 0:33:37.200
<v Speaker 1>don't have those retirement plans, or those people who don't

0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:39.160
<v Speaker 1>even have enough money to be able to afford home,

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:42.000
<v Speaker 1>so they can't even tap into that equity if they

0:33:42.000 --> 0:33:45.120
<v Speaker 1>wanted to. So it's it's a tough situation. Ben, thank

0:33:45.160 --> 0:33:47.080
<v Speaker 1>you so much, and I think it's really timely, especially

0:33:47.120 --> 0:33:50.440
<v Speaker 1>just coming off of Secretary of the Treasury Steve of

0:33:50.480 --> 0:33:53.720
<v Speaker 1>Venusian and Carmen Reinhardt talking about the outlook and what

0:33:53.840 --> 0:33:55.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of recovery we might see on the other side.

0:33:55.560 --> 0:33:58.280
<v Speaker 1>Ben Steve Hman is Personal finance editor. Bloomberg News on

0:33:58.320 --> 0:34:01.040
<v Speaker 1>the Phone in New York City City and check them

0:34:01.040 --> 0:34:03.560
<v Speaker 1>out on Twitter as well as Applomberg dot com. You're

0:34:03.640 --> 0:34:07.360
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:34:07.440 --> 0:34:11.440
<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio, we turned out to Nick Lieber

0:34:11.520 --> 0:34:16.960
<v Speaker 1>to talk about small business owners still struggling. This has

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:23.319
<v Speaker 1>been I'm sorry, UM, we are We're continuing to look

0:34:23.400 --> 0:34:26.279
<v Speaker 1>at this story and just try and figure it out.

0:34:26.320 --> 0:34:31.759
<v Speaker 1>So tell us what's going on with this story. Hi, Hi,

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:35.400
<v Speaker 1>this is Nick weiber Um. I'm a contributor to Bluemberg

0:34:35.480 --> 0:34:39.280
<v Speaker 1>Business Week, and we've been doing a series about how

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:45.000
<v Speaker 1>main street businesses are dealing with the pandemic. And there's

0:34:45.000 --> 0:34:49.799
<v Speaker 1>been a number of small business administration relief programs and

0:34:49.840 --> 0:34:53.759
<v Speaker 1>other programs to try to help them, and it's been

0:34:53.880 --> 0:34:57.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of uneven and kind of choppy, and the businesses,

0:34:57.520 --> 0:34:59.719
<v Speaker 1>many of the smallest ones, have been having a hard

0:34:59.719 --> 0:35:04.759
<v Speaker 1>time navigating the programs. There's the paycheck Protection program, which

0:35:04.760 --> 0:35:09.319
<v Speaker 1>we've heard a lot about UM and which the application

0:35:09.400 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>deadline is June. There's still over a hundred billion dollars

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:21.040
<v Speaker 1>available two independent contractors and two small employers. UM. There's

0:35:21.200 --> 0:35:24.319
<v Speaker 1>the e I d L program. There are a bunch

0:35:24.360 --> 0:35:27.400
<v Speaker 1>of different programs. There's there's been a bunch of conflicting

0:35:27.440 --> 0:35:32.479
<v Speaker 1>information UM, and think for the smallest business owners, it's

0:35:32.640 --> 0:35:35.680
<v Speaker 1>been a frustrating process. Yeah, no, doubt about it, Nick,

0:35:35.800 --> 0:35:38.040
<v Speaker 1>and and listen, there's a lot going on in our

0:35:38.080 --> 0:35:39.919
<v Speaker 1>and to forgive us if we were a little crazy,

0:35:41.000 --> 0:35:43.759
<v Speaker 1>my apologies, it's just you know, it's just one of

0:35:43.800 --> 0:35:46.880
<v Speaker 1>those days. Tuesdays are those days where we're always like, ah,

0:35:46.920 --> 0:35:50.440
<v Speaker 1>so listen, I completely get no need please, no need

0:35:50.480 --> 0:35:54.279
<v Speaker 1>to your very busy no needs because totally totally cool.

0:35:54.360 --> 0:35:55.719
<v Speaker 1>I have to say, Jason and I talked to a

0:35:55.719 --> 0:35:57.319
<v Speaker 1>lot of CEOs, and we've talked to a lot of

0:35:57.360 --> 0:35:59.960
<v Speaker 1>members at the small business community. Just yesterday we talked

0:36:00.400 --> 0:36:02.360
<v Speaker 1>with Todd Left, who was the CEO at Hand and

0:36:02.400 --> 0:36:04.680
<v Speaker 1>Stone Massage and Facial Spot. They have a bunch of

0:36:04.719 --> 0:36:08.640
<v Speaker 1>franchisees across the country and about half of them were

0:36:08.680 --> 0:36:11.760
<v Speaker 1>able to tap into the p p P virus relief

0:36:11.800 --> 0:36:14.080
<v Speaker 1>program from the government. And he said, you know, they

0:36:14.160 --> 0:36:16.439
<v Speaker 1>worked with their franchisees to make sure that they could

0:36:16.440 --> 0:36:19.560
<v Speaker 1>get into it, but it's not been so easy for everyone.

0:36:19.640 --> 0:36:22.480
<v Speaker 1>So you guys do this great story and continue the

0:36:22.480 --> 0:36:26.120
<v Speaker 1>great coverage in the magazine about how to do it.

0:36:26.200 --> 0:36:28.120
<v Speaker 1>So what should they be thinking? Because that p p

0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:31.640
<v Speaker 1>P program right the application now deadline is June, so

0:36:31.640 --> 0:36:34.120
<v Speaker 1>it's just around the corner So what do people need

0:36:34.160 --> 0:36:36.319
<v Speaker 1>to be thinking about and where they If you are

0:36:36.320 --> 0:36:40.839
<v Speaker 1>a small business owner, you can still tap into I mean,

0:36:40.880 --> 0:36:44.640
<v Speaker 1>I think you can go to there's an advocacy group's

0:36:44.719 --> 0:36:48.800
<v Speaker 1>website that has a list of lenders i e. Banks

0:36:48.960 --> 0:36:53.680
<v Speaker 1>and others that are still accepting applications. And you don't

0:36:53.719 --> 0:36:56.600
<v Speaker 1>need to be an existing customer, So you can go

0:36:56.680 --> 0:36:59.640
<v Speaker 1>to Small Business Majority's website and you can find a

0:36:59.719 --> 0:37:03.279
<v Speaker 1>list of lenders that will take your application, even if

0:37:03.320 --> 0:37:06.440
<v Speaker 1>you're not an existing customer. You can apply for up

0:37:06.440 --> 0:37:09.920
<v Speaker 1>to ten million dollars and and then you can see

0:37:10.000 --> 0:37:13.200
<v Speaker 1>if you get it. That's part one. Part two, of course,

0:37:13.360 --> 0:37:17.960
<v Speaker 1>is getting that loan forgiven, and the sp A has

0:37:18.080 --> 0:37:23.840
<v Speaker 1>recently released new rules making the forgiveness process in theory easier.

0:37:24.600 --> 0:37:26.319
<v Speaker 1>So those, I think are the two things to keep

0:37:26.360 --> 0:37:29.240
<v Speaker 1>in mind. One that there are still lenders that will

0:37:29.400 --> 0:37:32.800
<v Speaker 1>help you access the money, and to the in theory,

0:37:32.840 --> 0:37:37.719
<v Speaker 1>the forgiveness guidelines are easier. Yeah, it's interesting to to

0:37:37.840 --> 0:37:39.640
<v Speaker 1>have seen this, you know, through the eyes of a

0:37:39.680 --> 0:37:43.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of small businesses, uh, Nick, because it was challenging

0:37:43.560 --> 0:37:46.520
<v Speaker 1>on the front end, and even uh that notion of

0:37:46.719 --> 0:37:48.400
<v Speaker 1>do you have to be a customer you don't have

0:37:48.440 --> 0:37:50.759
<v Speaker 1>to be a customer. I mean that so much of

0:37:50.760 --> 0:37:52.680
<v Speaker 1>this was not clear at the beginning. And I do

0:37:52.800 --> 0:37:56.680
<v Speaker 1>wonder if businesses who aren't smart enough to read Bomberg

0:37:56.719 --> 0:38:00.120
<v Speaker 1>Business Week and your coverage, you know, even realize, you know,

0:38:00.520 --> 0:38:03.560
<v Speaker 1>some of how this is has evolved, because it's certainly

0:38:03.880 --> 0:38:06.480
<v Speaker 1>and this is not a no shade to anyone, but

0:38:06.600 --> 0:38:09.440
<v Speaker 1>it certainly wasn't perfect and easy to understand from the beginning.

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:12.799
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, there was a lot of conflicting information. It's

0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:16.680
<v Speaker 1>the rules have changed. Their multiple programs. There's another program

0:38:16.719 --> 0:38:20.440
<v Speaker 1>called E I d L, which used to make loans,

0:38:20.680 --> 0:38:25.319
<v Speaker 1>not not forgivable loans, but loans after disasters of up

0:38:25.360 --> 0:38:29.280
<v Speaker 1>to two million dollars. It's been reduced to a hundred

0:38:29.280 --> 0:38:34.000
<v Speaker 1>and fifty thousand dollars. Confusingly, when you apply, you can't

0:38:34.040 --> 0:38:37.200
<v Speaker 1>put the amount you actually would like to borrow. They

0:38:37.239 --> 0:38:39.560
<v Speaker 1>assess you and they give you what they give you.

0:38:40.400 --> 0:38:43.719
<v Speaker 1>Even more confusing, they will also give you up to

0:38:43.760 --> 0:38:46.600
<v Speaker 1>ten tho dollars. There's a grant you get a thousand

0:38:46.600 --> 0:38:50.960
<v Speaker 1>dollars per employee. Add add you know, to your point,

0:38:51.000 --> 0:38:53.799
<v Speaker 1>just add add to all of that the fact that

0:38:53.840 --> 0:38:57.840
<v Speaker 1>if you're really you know, you run your hair stylist,

0:38:58.000 --> 0:39:01.240
<v Speaker 1>your run a hardware store, your in a pretty small business.

0:39:01.560 --> 0:39:03.800
<v Speaker 1>You don't have a cp A, you don't have a lawyer.

0:39:03.880 --> 0:39:06.560
<v Speaker 1>You're trying to figure this stuff out. Is this alone?

0:39:06.680 --> 0:39:09.200
<v Speaker 1>Is this a grant? So I think it's it's been.

0:39:09.440 --> 0:39:11.600
<v Speaker 1>It's been really tricky for a lot of a lot

0:39:11.640 --> 0:39:14.279
<v Speaker 1>of the smallest businesses. And let's not forget I just

0:39:14.320 --> 0:39:16.360
<v Speaker 1>got about thirty seconds here. You've got the main Street

0:39:16.440 --> 0:39:18.759
<v Speaker 1>lending program from the FED. We heard j Powell talk

0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:21.360
<v Speaker 1>about that a lot. There's also an employee retention credit,

0:39:21.440 --> 0:39:24.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's pandemic unemployment assistance. I mean, and of

0:39:24.520 --> 0:39:27.040
<v Speaker 1>course there's state programs. I mean, this is really a

0:39:27.080 --> 0:39:29.000
<v Speaker 1>helpful article, and we're gonna make sure we put it

0:39:29.040 --> 0:39:32.239
<v Speaker 1>out on Twitter, Nick, because I do think, um, some

0:39:32.360 --> 0:39:35.080
<v Speaker 1>small businesses they just don't have the they're just trying

0:39:35.080 --> 0:39:37.799
<v Speaker 1>to stay alive and they don't even know what's out there.

0:39:37.840 --> 0:39:40.520
<v Speaker 1>So this is a really helpful guide to it. Nick,

0:39:40.600 --> 0:39:43.480
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, really appreciated. Bloomberg business Week contributor

0:39:43.680 --> 0:39:46.680
<v Speaker 1>Nick liber joining us on the phone from Brooklyn. I

0:39:46.680 --> 0:39:49.680
<v Speaker 1>have to say, Jason, this series, um that Business Week

0:39:49.680 --> 0:39:51.920
<v Speaker 1>has been doing their Business Week Small Business Survival Guy,

0:39:51.960 --> 0:39:54.319
<v Speaker 1>which you can find out more at Bloomberg dot com.

0:39:54.760 --> 0:39:57.719
<v Speaker 1>These stories have been very specific, lots of details and

0:39:57.760 --> 0:39:59.920
<v Speaker 1>just telling you here's what you need to do here

0:40:00.040 --> 0:40:03.200
<v Speaker 1>Titan go about maybe finding some assistance for your small basis.

0:40:03.239 --> 0:40:04.719
<v Speaker 1>And even the way they're laid out. I love the

0:40:04.719 --> 0:40:06.520
<v Speaker 1>way they're laid out because it's like bing bing bing

0:40:06.560 --> 0:40:08.200
<v Speaker 1>bing bing. This is what you need to know about

0:40:08.200 --> 0:40:10.840
<v Speaker 1>this one. It's very very useful. It's the sort of

0:40:10.880 --> 0:40:13.560
<v Speaker 1>thing you can send around to the small business owners

0:40:14.080 --> 0:40:17.239
<v Speaker 1>that you know and love, and I hope that they

0:40:17.239 --> 0:40:18.960
<v Speaker 1>can take advantage of some of this. And I do

0:40:19.040 --> 0:40:21.480
<v Speaker 1>go back to that conversation as you mentioned yesterday. I'm

0:40:21.640 --> 0:40:23.960
<v Speaker 1>the CEO of handed Stone because if you were able

0:40:24.120 --> 0:40:28.160
<v Speaker 1>to participate in this, I mean, it was the difference

0:40:28.200 --> 0:40:35.000
<v Speaker 1>between surviving and not in many cases. I'm growing a

0:40:35.200 --> 0:40:38.680
<v Speaker 1>journal now. But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,

0:40:39.719 --> 0:40:44.279
<v Speaker 1>dr home, honey, please, I'll do the riding revels me.

0:40:44.640 --> 0:41:00.080
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive, just drive, baby questions trying this

0:41:00.960 --> 0:41:07.719
<v Speaker 1>drive to the Cloboberg radio. It is time for the

0:41:07.800 --> 0:41:09.759
<v Speaker 1>drive to the close and back with us. Is Eric Clark,

0:41:09.840 --> 0:41:13.240
<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager of Rational Dynamic brands Fun on the phone

0:41:13.280 --> 0:41:15.680
<v Speaker 1>from San Diego. That Fun, by the way, beating just

0:41:15.719 --> 0:41:17.920
<v Speaker 1>about all of its peers uh this year and over

0:41:17.960 --> 0:41:20.720
<v Speaker 1>the past three years. Over the past three years, Jason

0:41:20.719 --> 0:41:24.520
<v Speaker 1>has been up on average eighteen percent annually, so really

0:41:24.560 --> 0:41:27.120
<v Speaker 1>a consistent top performer. I thought you were going to

0:41:27.200 --> 0:41:30.160
<v Speaker 1>pour one out for the segue. I know I was.

0:41:30.719 --> 0:41:32.359
<v Speaker 1>Dan came in. I wonder what he has to say

0:41:32.640 --> 0:41:35.759
<v Speaker 1>that we should catch up with him anyway. It's like

0:41:35.800 --> 0:41:38.440
<v Speaker 1>to talk to Eric Clark, though. UM, guessing you're not

0:41:38.800 --> 0:41:41.040
<v Speaker 1>tooling around on a segway there in San Diego, though,

0:41:41.080 --> 0:41:43.839
<v Speaker 1>But there's some cool you could be. I mean, there's

0:41:43.840 --> 0:41:47.120
<v Speaker 1>some cool segue tours around San Diego. I'm sure as

0:41:47.120 --> 0:41:50.720
<v Speaker 1>long as I wear a helmet, right exactly, That's exactly right,

0:41:51.640 --> 0:41:53.520
<v Speaker 1>all right? So what do you make of this market?

0:41:53.680 --> 0:41:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Where are you looking? At a time where it feels

0:41:56.719 --> 0:42:02.720
<v Speaker 1>like everybody's enthusiastic about just about everything. It makes me nervous.

0:42:03.120 --> 0:42:06.800
<v Speaker 1>It always makes me nervous when everybody's too excited about anything,

0:42:06.920 --> 0:42:11.560
<v Speaker 1>or when everybody's too scared about everything. So we've actually

0:42:11.600 --> 0:42:14.319
<v Speaker 1>been trimming into this strength. Were at the top end

0:42:14.400 --> 0:42:16.920
<v Speaker 1>of the range and that's you know, that's kind of

0:42:16.960 --> 0:42:19.560
<v Speaker 1>part of our process. You know, sell it the at

0:42:19.560 --> 0:42:21.520
<v Speaker 1>the top end of the range and then and then

0:42:21.719 --> 0:42:23.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, raise some cash and then be able to

0:42:23.440 --> 0:42:25.680
<v Speaker 1>buy at the bottom end of the range because I

0:42:25.680 --> 0:42:28.440
<v Speaker 1>feel like we're going to stick to this higher than

0:42:28.520 --> 0:42:31.840
<v Speaker 1>average volatility, which just gives you bigger ranges that you

0:42:31.880 --> 0:42:35.480
<v Speaker 1>can trade versus invests. So that's that's kind of where

0:42:35.480 --> 0:42:37.560
<v Speaker 1>we're focused. So eat Eric. So if you're trimming into

0:42:37.560 --> 0:42:39.560
<v Speaker 1>the strength, does that mean you're just because some stocks

0:42:39.560 --> 0:42:41.680
<v Speaker 1>have had a significant run up that their positions have

0:42:41.719 --> 0:42:44.279
<v Speaker 1>just gotten too large, So you're just kind of, you know,

0:42:44.320 --> 0:42:48.640
<v Speaker 1>reallocating a little bit or are you increasing cash because

0:42:48.880 --> 0:42:50.680
<v Speaker 1>you feel like we're just at a bit of a

0:42:50.719 --> 0:42:54.120
<v Speaker 1>top here, Well, I feel like we're we're closer to

0:42:54.160 --> 0:42:56.520
<v Speaker 1>a short term top. But you know what, some of

0:42:56.520 --> 0:42:59.560
<v Speaker 1>the names, some of these tech stocks and and digital

0:42:59.640 --> 0:43:07.160
<v Speaker 1>payments stocks have just gone completely insane. I mean, you know, Shopify, Amazon, Spotify, PayPal,

0:43:07.320 --> 0:43:09.880
<v Speaker 1>Square Trade Desk, you know, some of those names have

0:43:09.960 --> 0:43:13.600
<v Speaker 1>just been tremendous performers and and I still think July

0:43:13.800 --> 0:43:16.400
<v Speaker 1>earnings will be a little bit more of a realization

0:43:16.520 --> 0:43:20.080
<v Speaker 1>that things are probably getting better on the margin, but

0:43:20.239 --> 0:43:23.399
<v Speaker 1>maybe not as good as the stocks uh and their

0:43:23.400 --> 0:43:26.080
<v Speaker 1>performance over the last month or two. So you know,

0:43:26.200 --> 0:43:29.719
<v Speaker 1>just kind of risk managing, trimming some of those positions

0:43:29.760 --> 0:43:32.440
<v Speaker 1>that got a little bigger than I would like given,

0:43:32.960 --> 0:43:35.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, the fundamental So we're we're pretty disconnected, and

0:43:35.400 --> 0:43:37.879
<v Speaker 1>I think most people would agree with that. So where

0:43:37.920 --> 0:43:39.560
<v Speaker 1>do you add in a in a market like this

0:43:39.600 --> 0:43:42.000
<v Speaker 1>because there have been some some stocks that have have

0:43:42.200 --> 0:43:45.720
<v Speaker 1>taken some hits here. Yeah, I mean, we're we're adding

0:43:45.760 --> 0:43:47.840
<v Speaker 1>to some of the names that have pulled back. You know,

0:43:47.840 --> 0:43:50.880
<v Speaker 1>I've added to Lulu when it pulled back. Um, I

0:43:50.920 --> 0:43:54.760
<v Speaker 1>added to Facebook when it pulled back, added to home Depot,

0:43:55.840 --> 0:43:58.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Sherwin Williams. You know, we're we're selling some

0:43:58.520 --> 0:44:00.560
<v Speaker 1>of the sexy stuff and at in to some of

0:44:00.560 --> 0:44:04.759
<v Speaker 1>the boring stuff, you know, a Domino's pizza, a Walmart,

0:44:04.880 --> 0:44:06.680
<v Speaker 1>some of that stuff. And and that just gives me

0:44:06.719 --> 0:44:09.680
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more balance between you know, being all

0:44:09.760 --> 0:44:12.640
<v Speaker 1>in on the really sexy um, you know, kind of

0:44:13.560 --> 0:44:17.080
<v Speaker 1>high tech brands, high beta brands, and and just getting

0:44:17.080 --> 0:44:19.479
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more balance. And and we're back down

0:44:19.520 --> 0:44:21.600
<v Speaker 1>to you know, having seven or eight per sending cash

0:44:22.000 --> 0:44:24.520
<v Speaker 1>that I love to use as transitional cash because the

0:44:24.560 --> 0:44:26.680
<v Speaker 1>market always gives you an opportunity to buy something on

0:44:26.719 --> 0:44:28.839
<v Speaker 1>a dip. Yeah, what do you make of Starbucks here?

0:44:28.880 --> 0:44:31.319
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's a pretty radical move that they made

0:44:31.360 --> 0:44:33.680
<v Speaker 1>a couple of weeks back, you know, sort of closing

0:44:33.719 --> 0:44:37.480
<v Speaker 1>stores shifting to this walk up, pick up, drive through

0:44:38.120 --> 0:44:41.719
<v Speaker 1>uh model. It feels like it says something about at

0:44:41.800 --> 0:44:44.880
<v Speaker 1>least where they think we're going in terms of the

0:44:44.920 --> 0:44:48.919
<v Speaker 1>new world order. Yeah, I think I think the road

0:44:49.080 --> 0:44:52.200
<v Speaker 1>might be a little bumpy for for Starbucks. But I

0:44:52.239 --> 0:44:54.520
<v Speaker 1>think they're doing the right thing. They are taking a

0:44:54.520 --> 0:44:58.759
<v Speaker 1>look at their footprint, identifying where they can expand where

0:44:58.760 --> 0:45:02.080
<v Speaker 1>they can get better at least prices, where they can

0:45:02.120 --> 0:45:05.919
<v Speaker 1>add the drive through capabilities. Um, so I think they're

0:45:05.960 --> 0:45:09.480
<v Speaker 1>doing everything that they need to do for any You

0:45:09.520 --> 0:45:12.719
<v Speaker 1>know that you get a pandemic or something like this,

0:45:12.760 --> 0:45:14.560
<v Speaker 1>and it and it shows you where you have some

0:45:14.640 --> 0:45:17.319
<v Speaker 1>holes in your business model, and the smart companies try

0:45:17.360 --> 0:45:20.080
<v Speaker 1>to fix those holes and and I think they'll be

0:45:20.120 --> 0:45:22.160
<v Speaker 1>they'll come out stronger on the other end, just like

0:45:22.280 --> 0:45:26.960
<v Speaker 1>most of the best brands that have the footprint locally,

0:45:27.320 --> 0:45:29.719
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna now get a chance to get better real

0:45:29.840 --> 0:45:35.000
<v Speaker 1>estate prices, better locations for expansion if they have the

0:45:35.080 --> 0:45:37.840
<v Speaker 1>capital and they have the really relevant brand. So the

0:45:38.160 --> 0:45:42.880
<v Speaker 1>Chipotles and the Lulu's and um and Starbucks, they're going

0:45:42.920 --> 0:45:44.759
<v Speaker 1>to be able to expand and that's going to add

0:45:44.760 --> 0:45:47.120
<v Speaker 1>to growth over time. What are some of the trends

0:45:47.160 --> 0:45:50.120
<v Speaker 1>you think coming off the virus eric that will stay

0:45:50.160 --> 0:45:54.600
<v Speaker 1>with us and that might shape your strategy longer term here. Well,

0:45:54.760 --> 0:45:56.479
<v Speaker 1>I think the exercise. I mean, I don't know about

0:45:56.480 --> 0:45:59.319
<v Speaker 1>you guys, but I mean we see more people outside

0:46:00.080 --> 0:46:02.160
<v Speaker 1>just because they're a little bit pent up, and I

0:46:02.200 --> 0:46:06.080
<v Speaker 1>think that that people are getting in shape again it's summertime,

0:46:06.120 --> 0:46:09.600
<v Speaker 1>and I think the trend of just feeling better and

0:46:09.600 --> 0:46:12.799
<v Speaker 1>and and exercising, and that that feeds into the ath

0:46:12.880 --> 0:46:15.160
<v Speaker 1>leisure with the Nike and the Lulu And then I

0:46:15.200 --> 0:46:18.520
<v Speaker 1>just think the e commerce thing is just going to continue.

0:46:18.560 --> 0:46:20.799
<v Speaker 1>If you were an e commerce user, there's nothing that's

0:46:20.840 --> 0:46:23.799
<v Speaker 1>going to change that. But if you were a laggered

0:46:24.239 --> 0:46:26.480
<v Speaker 1>and you were forced to do that and you've realized

0:46:26.520 --> 0:46:29.600
<v Speaker 1>how easy that process is with an Amazon or or

0:46:29.640 --> 0:46:31.800
<v Speaker 1>whoever your favorite brands are, I think you're going to

0:46:31.920 --> 0:46:35.000
<v Speaker 1>start continuing to do that and really focus on the

0:46:35.040 --> 0:46:37.320
<v Speaker 1>brands where you really have a great experience at the

0:46:37.360 --> 0:46:41.879
<v Speaker 1>shopping level, like a Lulu um that that that's gonna

0:46:42.160 --> 0:46:45.080
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna focus on those physical stores where you love it,

0:46:45.120 --> 0:46:47.080
<v Speaker 1>but you're also going to use e commerce as a

0:46:47.120 --> 0:46:49.800
<v Speaker 1>way to you know, streamline your day and be more efficient,

0:46:49.880 --> 0:46:53.000
<v Speaker 1>and that that leads into a big overweight in Amazon still.

0:46:53.239 --> 0:46:55.520
<v Speaker 1>And I know, Jason, you guys as a family do

0:46:55.560 --> 0:46:57.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot of stuff online and a lot of apps.

0:46:57.280 --> 0:46:59.759
<v Speaker 1>We do too, But it's interesting having conversations. I talked

0:46:59.760 --> 0:47:02.319
<v Speaker 1>to Buddy just this morning. They're like, yeah, we did

0:47:02.360 --> 0:47:04.400
<v Speaker 1>our first order you know, through instacrt as a result

0:47:04.400 --> 0:47:06.759
<v Speaker 1>of being shut down, you know, several months ago. So

0:47:06.840 --> 0:47:10.080
<v Speaker 1>it's I do think that there it's an environment that

0:47:10.280 --> 0:47:12.080
<v Speaker 1>Eric's right, you know, like we've heard from others that

0:47:12.719 --> 0:47:14.799
<v Speaker 1>people are doing things differently and they're like, Okay, this

0:47:14.840 --> 0:47:17.120
<v Speaker 1>wasn't so hard. I like it and may stay with it.

0:47:18.400 --> 0:47:21.319
<v Speaker 1>And so that's the trend. Yeah, And so what do

0:47:21.360 --> 0:47:26.200
<v Speaker 1>you worry the most about sort of disrupting this market, Eric, Well,

0:47:25.920 --> 0:47:30.080
<v Speaker 1>I I think the unemployment claims and the support that

0:47:30.160 --> 0:47:33.799
<v Speaker 1>we're getting, you know, if Congress decides to drag their

0:47:33.880 --> 0:47:35.840
<v Speaker 1>views a little bit, there's a lot of people, I

0:47:35.840 --> 0:47:39.560
<v Speaker 1>mean millions of people who are going to find themselves

0:47:39.600 --> 0:47:42.239
<v Speaker 1>with not having some of the support that they have

0:47:42.280 --> 0:47:44.200
<v Speaker 1>and they don't have a job, and if it's harder

0:47:44.239 --> 0:47:47.280
<v Speaker 1>to find a job, I mean that that's certainly an issue.

0:47:47.360 --> 0:47:49.920
<v Speaker 1>So I hope that they do what they need to

0:47:49.960 --> 0:47:53.400
<v Speaker 1>do to support this economy and the and the population

0:47:53.400 --> 0:47:56.880
<v Speaker 1>and the unemployed. Um, while while we're kind of getting

0:47:56.880 --> 0:48:01.240
<v Speaker 1>back to normal with with companies feeling better about hiring again,

0:48:01.360 --> 0:48:05.680
<v Speaker 1>so not always worries me. July earnings again, not that

0:48:05.680 --> 0:48:08.319
<v Speaker 1>they're going to be particularly bad, but maybe they're just

0:48:08.400 --> 0:48:11.960
<v Speaker 1>not as good as the doc market indicates. And then

0:48:11.960 --> 0:48:14.040
<v Speaker 1>I and then I always worry about the election, that

0:48:13.960 --> 0:48:16.520
<v Speaker 1>that will come over, you know, when we get in

0:48:16.560 --> 0:48:17.920
<v Speaker 1>through the through the rest of the year. But the

0:48:18.000 --> 0:48:21.320
<v Speaker 1>July earnings and I think the support the Congress is

0:48:21.400 --> 0:48:23.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of giving people I think are the bigger issues

0:48:23.280 --> 0:48:25.279
<v Speaker 1>because those are those are near turn that we have

0:48:25.320 --> 0:48:28.000
<v Speaker 1>to focus on well. In the Secretary of Treasury Steven

0:48:28.000 --> 0:48:30.440
<v Speaker 1>and Nushan already said second quarter not expecting much, but

0:48:30.560 --> 0:48:33.200
<v Speaker 1>expects to start to see a recovery come the third

0:48:33.280 --> 0:48:36.440
<v Speaker 1>quarter and into later this year. Eric Clark, Thank you

0:48:36.480 --> 0:48:39.680
<v Speaker 1>so much, portfolio manager at Rational Dynamic Brands Fun joining

0:48:39.760 --> 0:48:42.040
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from San Diego. Thanks so much

0:48:42.080 --> 0:48:45.000
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on itune,

0:48:45.000 --> 0:48:48.120
<v Speaker 1>South Cloud, Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:48:48.160 --> 0:48:49.959
<v Speaker 1>And of course you can always listen to our radio

0:48:50.000 --> 0:48:52.799
<v Speaker 1>show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch

0:48:52.840 --> 0:48:55.280
<v Speaker 1>us on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News.