Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: to take you back to our Bloomberg Live event, our
Speaker 1: invest Global Virtual event happening right now on Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 1: and TV as well. We have with us joining is
Speaker 1: U S Treasury Secretary Stephen Manu Shim joining David Rubinstein
Speaker 1: of the Carlisle Group. He's the co founder and co
Speaker 1: executive chairman. Let's listen in. I would like to do
Speaker 1: a stimulus bill. Unclear whether it's uh something that other
Speaker 1: Republicans want to do. On Capitol the What is your
Speaker 1: view on the likelihood of another bill and what is
Speaker 1: the timing for that? Well, David, it's something we're very
Speaker 1: seriously considering. The President has been clear that we put
Speaker 1: a lot of money into the economy. We had an
Speaker 1: unprecedented response on a bipartisan basis and in the last
Speaker 1: Care's bill, and there's no question that money is having
Speaker 1: a major impact on the economy. Whether it's the p
Speaker 1: p P which impacted fifty million workers, or whether it's
Speaker 1: the direct payments of over a hundred and sixty million
Speaker 1: or enhanced unemployment, these are all having an important part
Speaker 1: of protecting American workers in American business. I actually just
Speaker 1: left the Republican Senate lunch and we are beginning to
Speaker 1: discuss the different aspects of what another bill would look like.
Speaker 1: We want to take our time because number one, uh,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of money we still haven't put out.
Speaker 1: Number Two, we want to make sure whatever we do
Speaker 1: going forward is much more targeted to the businesnesses that
Speaker 1: are most impacted. But the timing, you think that it's
Speaker 1: likely that sometime in July a bill might pass both houses.
Speaker 1: I do that that would be the timing. Okay, and
Speaker 1: the negotiations. There are some people who think that you
Speaker 1: are not tough enough on the Democrats, and therefore some
Speaker 1: Republicans are saying that you should have a partner, Mark
Speaker 1: Meadows or somebody else to negotiate. But in your view,
Speaker 1: you'll be the principal person negotiating with the Congress on
Speaker 1: this legislation. Is that right? Well, David, I mean, let
Speaker 1: me first be clear what I'm doing. I'm doing at
Speaker 1: the direction of the President and the president's policies. Uh,
Speaker 1: last time Mark had just come on board, and I
Speaker 1: asked Mark to come up with me. He was He
Speaker 1: was very critical and helping with the last bill. So
Speaker 1: we have a great, great teamwork and he will be
Speaker 1: there with me. But let me just say I'm very
Speaker 1: proud of the fact that the last two bills were
Speaker 1: nine to zero and a hundred to zero. That this
Speaker 1: isn't a question of being tough enough or not being
Speaker 1: tough enough. We had unprecedented bipartisan support at a time
Speaker 1: when it was critical to get money into the economy
Speaker 1: and to help American workers. The parts that are the
Speaker 1: various bills have passed so far, which do you think
Speaker 1: has been the most effective so far. Uh, the p
Speaker 1: p P, the unemployment insurance, Uh, the other loan programs.
Speaker 1: Which are you think I think is working the best
Speaker 1: so far? Well, David is as you know, because you
Speaker 1: you've lived through other financial times. Uh, this is a
Speaker 1: very very different situation than we've ever seen before. This
Speaker 1: is the first time that we've shut down the entire
Speaker 1: US economy because of a virus, and we we had
Speaker 1: to have a different approach. And the reason I mean
Speaker 1: a different approach was it was very important to get
Speaker 1: money into the economy quickly. Things that took four or
Speaker 1: five or six months, even if they in the long
Speaker 1: term worked better, would not have been effective. So we
Speaker 1: needed to have a range of tools, and if you
Speaker 1: look at the Cares Act, there were different tools that
Speaker 1: we used to put massive amounts of money into the economy. Obviously,
Speaker 1: as I just mentioned before, you had the p p P,
Speaker 1: you had the direct payments, you had the unemployment. We
Speaker 1: also had a program for the airlines, which was was
Speaker 1: very critical. We had fifty billion dollars that we could
Speaker 1: work with the Federal Reserve on the thirteen three facilities,
Speaker 1: and this really worked perfect. The mirror announcement of some
Speaker 1: of these facilities unlocked the markets even without spending a
Speaker 1: penny of taxpayer dollars. It unlocked to the point where
Speaker 1: you know, we've had unprecedented corporate issuance. Companies like Boeing,
Speaker 1: which I thought we're going to need to come to
Speaker 1: us in our national security program, bar twenty five billion
Speaker 1: dollars in the market without putting a penny of taxpayer
Speaker 1: money at risk. So right now, would you say that
Speaker 1: the legislation that you've passed as working reasonably well? Would
Speaker 1: you say the Fed has done as good a job
Speaker 1: as you would like them to do. They have an
Speaker 1: lending program which I think has not yet actually spent money.
Speaker 1: And can you say whether the President is happy today
Speaker 1: or happier today with the Secretary with the head of
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve. Well, I think I think the Federal
Speaker 1: Reserve has done a phenomenal job. We speak to them
Speaker 1: almost on a daily basis. These programs are a combination
Speaker 1: of work of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, and
Speaker 1: I think we've worked very well together. Every single one
Speaker 1: of these programs is now up and running. So we
Speaker 1: have a municipal bond program, we have a money market program,
Speaker 1: we have a commercial paper program. We have a main
Speaker 1: street program that's now up and running. We have a
Speaker 1: corporate primary and secondary. We had a program that lent
Speaker 1: to two banks and non banks for P p P loans.
Speaker 1: So the Fed acted in unprecedented response. And yes, I
Speaker 1: I think you've seen the President is very please with
Speaker 1: what the FETE has been doing. Okay, in terms of
Speaker 1: these programs, they do cost money. So the debt of
Speaker 1: the United States has increased a fair bit. I think
Speaker 1: maybe four trillion dollars or something like that. Are you
Speaker 1: worried about the impact of that, either on the dollar
Speaker 1: or inflation? Well, David, this is this is like a war.
Speaker 1: Fighting those virus is like fighting a war. And the
Speaker 1: President I were determined to spend what we needed to
Speaker 1: spend to protect the American workers in the American public.
Speaker 1: This was not their fault. So no different than going
Speaker 1: into a war. You don't say I'm gonna stop here
Speaker 1: and and and deal with the consequences. I think over
Speaker 1: the long term, the good news is long term interest
Speaker 1: rates are very low, so the cost of this debt
Speaker 1: is very low. We're borrowing a lot of money long term.
Speaker 1: We have a lot of liquidity. Uh, the dollar is
Speaker 1: the reserve currency of the world, so we have a
Speaker 1: lot of liquidity and borrowing. And yes, over time we're
Speaker 1: going to need to deal with the debt. I think
Speaker 1: you have to look at both the debt as a
Speaker 1: percentage of GDP and a percentage of what it costs
Speaker 1: to carry it. So these are things we'll look at
Speaker 1: over time. In terms of the loans that are being made. Now,
Speaker 1: at one point you had said it was important not
Speaker 1: to reveal who the borrowers were. Recently you've said you
Speaker 1: think it's okay that it's closed. Why did you change
Speaker 1: your mind or why did the government change its position? Well, David,
Speaker 1: let me clarify when when we negotiated these deals on
Speaker 1: a bipartisan basis, we agreed to an unprecedented level of
Speaker 1: transparency and oversight. And we didn't need to do this,
Speaker 1: but we agreed within the federal reserve programs and within
Speaker 1: the programs coming from the Treasury, the direct loans, there
Speaker 1: would be complete transparency, and that was very clear. We
Speaker 1: never really discussed the specifics of the p p P. Now,
Speaker 1: it is true when the SBA makes seven A loans,
Speaker 1: they are transparent. The issue here was you had businesses
Speaker 1: that took loans based upon their payroll and and no
Speaker 1: different we're not publicizing everybody's name who is getting enhanced unemployment.
Speaker 1: We wanted to make sure we protected small businesses the
Speaker 1: confidentiality of their payroll. So I think we've struck the
Speaker 1: appropriate balance on protection and transparency. And what we just
Speaker 1: agreed on a bipartisan basis with the SBA Committee is
Speaker 1: that we would release the names on about seventy five
Speaker 1: percent of the dollars and about twenty of the actual loans,
Speaker 1: So that's all loans above a hundred and fifty thousand,
Speaker 1: and we'll put them in buckets, so you don't know
Speaker 1: the exact size, but we'll bucket them. Uh, there'll be
Speaker 1: you know, one fifty to three fifty. I think it's
Speaker 1: a million to two million, five million to ten million,
Speaker 1: various different buckets. And on the very small loans a
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand and below or at least the
Speaker 1: detales of the names, but not the borrowers. So I
Speaker 1: think we got to an important compromise of transparency on
Speaker 1: the majority of the money with the idea of protecting
Speaker 1: very small businesses sold proprietors and and and others confidentiality. Okay,
Speaker 1: in this quarter, we have slipped into our recession. And
Speaker 1: according to the Natural Bureau Economic Research, which makes the
Speaker 1: official determinations and when you're in a recession or not,
Speaker 1: do you think by the end of this year we
Speaker 1: might be out of the recession, David, I I do,
Speaker 1: But the the traditional economic metrics are aren't really appropriate
Speaker 1: given we shut down the economy. So first, let me
Speaker 1: say there were way too many people that lost their
Speaker 1: jobs and got laid off, and again, we're not going
Speaker 1: to be done until we get every single one of
Speaker 1: those people back to work. So I'm not really focused
Speaker 1: on the technical issue of it is a recession or
Speaker 1: it's not a recession. I'm focused on helping all these
Speaker 1: small businesses and all the workers, and that that's what
Speaker 1: our job. And I think you saw the recent employment numbers.
Speaker 1: People thought there'd be another eight million people unemployed. We
Speaker 1: put two and a half million people back to work. Clearly,
Speaker 1: this is the p P P working. And you saw
Speaker 1: a great retail sales. I think you're gonna see the
Speaker 1: economy had a very bad second quarter. I think you're
Speaker 1: going to see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in
Speaker 1: the third quarter. And some people who have been gotten
Speaker 1: the p PP loans are very happy with them, but
Speaker 1: they say it's unclear whether they have to repay them
Speaker 1: or not. Will the s b A clarify who actually
Speaker 1: has to repay or not repay those loans. Well, the
Speaker 1: good news is again I think we struck the right
Speaker 1: balance here and for for all loans that are less
Speaker 1: than two million dollars, we created a safe harbor around
Speaker 1: the certification unless there's things like fraud. And for loans
Speaker 1: over two million, they're going to go through an electronic
Speaker 1: review do to make sure that the companies needed the
Speaker 1: money in the certification, and I think that would be
Speaker 1: a very fair process as we go through that, if
Speaker 1: you owe taxes on April fifteen, you could file on July.
Speaker 1: Is there any consideration, as some people have speculated that
Speaker 1: it might be postponed once again to maybe September fift Well, David,
Speaker 1: it's something I'm thinking about. As of now, we're not
Speaker 1: intending on doing that, but it is something we may consider.
Speaker 1: I am pleased to report that I think it was
Speaker 1: absolutely the right thing to do at the time, because
Speaker 1: we were absolutely worried about people couldn't get to their
Speaker 1: accountants couldn't get their information. And I'm pleased to report
Speaker 1: that returns filed or down only ten percent year over year,
Speaker 1: and refunds are down only ten pc. So the majority
Speaker 1: of Americans have filed the mad already. Those people that
Speaker 1: needed to get refunds got them. I'd encourage all Americans,
Speaker 1: if you can file your tax returns, go ahead and
Speaker 1: do it, particularly if you think you have a refund,
Speaker 1: and we will look carefully as we we approached this
Speaker 1: July day. Okay, now, you've talked about shutting down the economy,
Speaker 1: which obviously we had to do and was done, but
Speaker 1: you've also said recently that we can't do it again
Speaker 1: because we just can't afford to do it. So are
Speaker 1: you worried that new COVID cases are breaking out in
Speaker 1: states like Florida or Texas and how will you deal
Speaker 1: with that in terms of opening up the economy again
Speaker 1: but also protecting the safety of people. Well, David, I
Speaker 1: think the President made the absolute right decision. Was a
Speaker 1: very difficult decision in shutting down the entire economy. The
Speaker 1: issues that we were concerned about at the time were
Speaker 1: hospitals were getting way overcrowded. We had issues of ventilators,
Speaker 1: and we had issues of not having enough medicines. Um.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, kind of. We had an unprecedented effort,
Speaker 1: especially in places like New York, where we built out
Speaker 1: extra hospital beds in the convention center. We sent the
Speaker 1: Navy ship there to be ready as a hospital in
Speaker 1: The good news is those never needed to be used. Um.
Speaker 1: Right now, we're in a different situation. Right now, we
Speaker 1: have plenty of capacity, We've got plenty of ventilators, We've
Speaker 1: made great progress on viral treatments, and we've had made
Speaker 1: great progress on testing. So I think this is going
Speaker 1: to be an issue that we have to look at
Speaker 1: on a local by local basis. Where there are breakouts,
Speaker 1: they'll they'll be contract tracing UM. And I think we're
Speaker 1: just in a completely different situation. So I I think
Speaker 1: it would be highly unlikely we get to a point
Speaker 1: where we need to shut the economy down again. Okay,
Speaker 1: you were one of the principal negotiators with Bob Leheiser
Speaker 1: of the deal with China. Are you confident that the
Speaker 1: Chinese can honor the commitments to buy the products from
Speaker 1: the United States that they agreed too. I have every
Speaker 1: expectation that they will. They have continued to tell us
Speaker 1: that they will, as recently as last week when Secretary
Speaker 1: of Pompeio met with one of the senior people that
Speaker 1: flew in from China and they had a summit. So
Speaker 1: I have that I have that expectation that they will
Speaker 1: lead up to their obligation. Now having said that, UM,
Speaker 1: let me just comment on I think the world wants
Speaker 1: a lot more transparency on COVID. How did it start,
Speaker 1: how did it spread, how did it spread around the world,
Speaker 1: And it didn't spread within China, So we shouldn't confuse
Speaker 1: these two issues. Yes, we have expectations that they will
Speaker 1: live up to their trade agreements, but we also have
Speaker 1: expectations they need a lot more transparency around the disease.
Speaker 1: There is not more transparency. Do you think there will
Speaker 1: be a decoupling with the Chinese economy and the US economy.
Speaker 1: I think you have talked about that recently, but you
Speaker 1: see that as being separate in the trade agreement. But
Speaker 1: are you worried about or you think it could be
Speaker 1: appropriate to have a decoupling at some point? Well, I
Speaker 1: don't want to speculate, David, it could, Um, I think
Speaker 1: you have a lot of companies that are beginning to
Speaker 1: look at their supply chains and making sure they diversify them,
Speaker 1: and I think that's something that's prudent to do wherever
Speaker 1: they are around the world. You have a lot of
Speaker 1: companies that are looking at bringing jobs back to the
Speaker 1: US because of our tax incentives in other areas. As
Speaker 1: we have said all along, if we can compete with
Speaker 1: China on a fair and level playing field, it is
Speaker 1: a great opportunity for US businesses and US workers, as
Speaker 1: China has a large, growing middle class several hundred million people.
Speaker 1: But if we can't participate and compete on on a
Speaker 1: fair basis, then you are going to see a decoupling
Speaker 1: going forward. So the Chinese government is thinking about changing
Speaker 1: the ways in which it operates and overseas Hong Kong.
Speaker 1: The President has been concerned about that, so has Secretary Pompeio.
Speaker 1: If the Chinese government were to go forward with legislations considering,
Speaker 1: do you think the US government might impose some type
Speaker 1: of sanctions to show its disapproval of what's going on? Well, David,
Speaker 1: it's it's our policy. We don't comment on future sanctions.
Speaker 1: But what I will comment on is the President and
Speaker 1: This was a few weeks ago. It is Rose Gardens
Speaker 1: speech instructed me to convene what's called the President's Working
Speaker 1: Group on Capital Markets. This is myself and all the
Speaker 1: major regulators, and we're looking at all of these issues
Speaker 1: very carefully as it relates to both Hong Kong and
Speaker 1: as it relates to UH Chinese issuance on on the
Speaker 1: US exchanges. Hey, now, recently there was a report that
Speaker 1: we're running out of not running out of, but we're
Speaker 1: having a little uh less demand for less supply. I
Speaker 1: should say up coins. We have a lot of dollar
Speaker 1: bills I guess in circulation, but because of COVID, we
Speaker 1: don't have as many coins. So what are you gonna
Speaker 1: do about that? Well, David, let me first say I
Speaker 1: want to thank the hard working men and women at
Speaker 1: the buer of engraving and at the mint UH and
Speaker 1: that that's where we make both the money and where
Speaker 1: we make the coins. And through this entire period they
Speaker 1: didn't shut down production. In matter of fact, as it
Speaker 1: relates to UH circulating money UH in in bills, we
Speaker 1: had unprecedented deliveries to the Federal Reserve which they were
Speaker 1: able to put into the various banks as it relates
Speaker 1: to coins, because so business, so many businesses shut down,
Speaker 1: a lot of coins got stuck in in the system.
Speaker 1: So we we got a little bit far behind on coins.
Speaker 1: But I know they're redoubling their efforts and that that'll
Speaker 1: workout fine. I have a lot of pennies and quarters
Speaker 1: at my house. Maybe I can drop them off somewhere
Speaker 1: and help them some loudest way. I'll let you know,
Speaker 1: So ask as many as you have, David. I know
Speaker 1: you've got plenty of them, okay. So, Um, being Secretary
Speaker 1: of the Treasury in a normal time is not easy,
Speaker 1: very busy, one of the most important jobs in Washington
Speaker 1: or in the country. But during this time you've been,
Speaker 1: you know, working around the clock. Have you had any
Speaker 1: time to just breathe, any time to see your family?
Speaker 1: How are you? Are you working out of your office,
Speaker 1: You're working out of your home? How are you getting
Speaker 1: through this period of time? I'm working out of the Treasury,
Speaker 1: So basically every day I go from my home to
Speaker 1: the Treasury, to the White House, which is right next door,
Speaker 1: and back. Um, we we've had about a hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty people working around the clock in in the Treasury
Speaker 1: and the rest of the people working telecommuting. I think,
Speaker 1: like a lot of businesses, we were actually pleasantly surprised
Speaker 1: that a lot of areas we could effectively work by telework.
Speaker 1: There were other areas like the I R s where
Speaker 1: it was much harder to do certain things. You can't
Speaker 1: open the mail. We had truckloads of mail back up
Speaker 1: in physical returns and audits. But uh, I want to
Speaker 1: thank we had an enormous uh group of people here
Speaker 1: that have been working around the class and uh, I'll
Speaker 1: have plenty of time to rest down down the road.
Speaker 1: My family understands that percise there's any time it just
Speaker 1: just relax, a little bit of walk or exercise, or
Speaker 1: you have no time for that, trying to do a
Speaker 1: little bit of exercise. Never enough, but trying to do
Speaker 1: a little bit. So as you go forward, UM, you
Speaker 1: obviously enjoy the job, and you obviously are well respected
Speaker 1: by many of your colleagues. UM. So, if President Trump
Speaker 1: is reelected, would you be interested in serving another four
Speaker 1: years in this position? Yes, David, as I said before,
Speaker 1: I would be, But that's for the president to decide, Okay,
Speaker 1: And going forward, what kind of advice would you give
Speaker 1: to anybody else who serves as Secretary Treasury at some
Speaker 1: point what is the best thing to do and what's
Speaker 1: the thing you should avoid being doing as Secretary Treasury. Well,
Speaker 1: the interesting part about Secretary of Treasury is it spans
Speaker 1: across so many different parts of the government. So a
Speaker 1: large part of the job is domestic and international finance.
Speaker 1: Very big part of the job is just operational. We
Speaker 1: we we manage a lot of the payment processing, obviously,
Speaker 1: all the borrowings for the government, and something that I
Speaker 1: spent a lot of my time on and I think
Speaker 1: I've talked about this before. Prior to COVID, I was
Speaker 1: probably spending fifty percent of my time on national security
Speaker 1: issues because sanctions have been such an important part of
Speaker 1: our national security strategy. And despite John Poulton's comments in
Speaker 1: the books complaining that I didn't do enough sanctions, it's
Speaker 1: really somewhat ridiculous since under President Trump we've done more
Speaker 1: sanctions than any previous administrations combined. But we've had a
Speaker 1: very unified approach myself, Secretary Pompeo, d O D, and
Speaker 1: the c i A as to how we approached the
Speaker 1: national security issues. Hey, the stock market is roughly where
Speaker 1: it was before we went into the recession. Why do
Speaker 1: you think the stock market seems to be so ebulliant
Speaker 1: relatively strong when the economy is not as strong as
Speaker 1: a stock market. That has that been a surprise to
Speaker 1: you as somebody who used to spend a lot of
Speaker 1: time in the markets, Well, David, having spent a lot
Speaker 1: of time in the markets, as I always like to say,
Speaker 1: I'm not good at predicting where they are going to
Speaker 1: be tomorrow or next week. I am good at predicting
Speaker 1: where they're going to be in the future. I think
Speaker 1: what you've seen and first let me just say the
Speaker 1: stock market is a market of stocks. So certain stocks
Speaker 1: have done phenomenally well. You look at companies like Apple
Speaker 1: that are great companies, and and again Covid is not
Speaker 1: going to have a giant impact on their business and
Speaker 1: they're a technology leader. You look at some of the
Speaker 1: retailers and that they've had a pretty difficult situation. Uh,
Speaker 1: if you haven't been a major retailer, you know you
Speaker 1: had your stores closed, You're already dealing with online issues.
Speaker 1: And the fact that interest rates came down obviously also
Speaker 1: changes valuations. But I think the bigger issue is the
Speaker 1: US is the still the bright spark of the economic
Speaker 1: growth around the world. Beloved confidence that our economy is
Speaker 1: going to come back in the third and fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: and people want to invest in the US. So as
Speaker 1: part of a new bill, if a bill does go
Speaker 1: through Congress, would infrastructure be part of the President is
Speaker 1: talked about having an infrastructure bill. Would that be a
Speaker 1: separate or would that possibly part of our stimulus bill
Speaker 1: or a relief bill. I think, as you know, the
Speaker 1: President has been very interested in infrastructure since the campaign.
Speaker 1: It's something we've been talking about on a bipartisan basis.
Speaker 1: The President's interested in roads and bridges and tunnels, and
Speaker 1: we continue to have those conversations. The issue with infrastructure
Speaker 1: is normally these are not shovel ready. So normally these
Speaker 1: even if we pass something, this isn't going to impact
Speaker 1: getting people back to work in September and October. So
Speaker 1: I think that the likelihood is the CARES the next
Speaker 1: Care's bill, is going to be very focused on. We
Speaker 1: want to make sure that twenty million people that don't
Speaker 1: have jobs because of COVID get back to work, and
Speaker 1: that's going to be our focus, and for them to
Speaker 1: get back to work quickly. How do you keep up
Speaker 1: with your colleagues around the world. Who are the finance
Speaker 1: ministers of major countries that we have relationships with? You
Speaker 1: regularly consult with them or you do it one on one.
Speaker 1: How do you do that right now during this crisis. Well,
Speaker 1: I have very good relationships with a lot of my counterparts,
Speaker 1: so I do speak to them on a regular basis. Also,
Speaker 1: this year, UH, the United States is chairing the G
Speaker 1: seven presidency, so I convene pretty much every other week
Speaker 1: a call of the G seven finance ministers, your deputies.
Speaker 1: We tend to rotate, so we're we're in direct communication.
Speaker 1: And one of the things I've said to all of
Speaker 1: them is now it's even more important than ever that
Speaker 1: we are working together as we all battle this disease
Speaker 1: and focus on rebuilding our economies. So do you worry
Speaker 1: about the impact of COVID on the emerging markets, which uh,
Speaker 1: you know have a different currency which is relatively weaker
Speaker 1: against the dollar recent months, or so are you worried
Speaker 1: about the economies uh in those countries being able to
Speaker 1: repay debt that they may owe to people in the
Speaker 1: United States. Well, I am worried about that. We're doing
Speaker 1: a lot of work at the I m F and
Speaker 1: the World Bank on those economies. We've we've created a
Speaker 1: debt moratorium for the particularly poor countries because what they're
Speaker 1: going through, and that that's something we are definitely focused on,
Speaker 1: is is working with the poorest countries. Were also very
Speaker 1: focused on what we call debt transparency, making sure that
Speaker 1: it's transparent when country is borrow whether it's from China
Speaker 1: or Europe or anywhere in the world, that there's transparency
Speaker 1: into the situation. Now, in the last recession ten years
Speaker 1: ago or so, the banks were in pretty big trouble
Speaker 1: and they had to be in effect given additional capital
Speaker 1: by the United States at some points. Um right now,
Speaker 1: you think the banks are in very good shape and
Speaker 1: our financial institutions are safe and strong despite the COVID crisis.
Speaker 1: I do, David, Unlike last time, as you said, the
Speaker 1: bank capital rules have changed, the mix of their books
Speaker 1: have changed. You don't have these problems mortgages that you
Speaker 1: had last time. Underwriting has gotten much better. So the
Speaker 1: banks had very good capital and very good liquidity coming
Speaker 1: into this. And I think what we've seen is in
Speaker 1: the beginning of COVID there was a big run to
Speaker 1: draw revolvers, and I think we've seen a lot less
Speaker 1: of that. And my understanding of speaking to the major
Speaker 1: bank CEO is the typical mid market companies again, if
Speaker 1: they're not in retail and entertainment and restaurants, if they're
Speaker 1: not in the areas that are particularly hard hit, have
Speaker 1: a reason amount of liquidity and borrowing power. So the
Speaker 1: first Treasury Secretary was Alexander Hamilton's and you probably have
Speaker 1: seen the play Hamilton's. So do you ever get any
Speaker 1: whispers at night from the ghost of Hamilton's saying you're
Speaker 1: doing a good job, or do this, or do that,
Speaker 1: or you just imagine what he might be recommending that
Speaker 1: you do all the time, David, I got I got
Speaker 1: a big portrait of him. He stares at me at
Speaker 1: my desk and occasionally he gives me some good advice. Okay, Steve,
Speaker 1: Mr Secretary, thank you very much for your time. I
Speaker 1: appreciate your giving us your insights and good luck on
Speaker 1: all the things you're working on. Thank you. David. All right,
Speaker 1: you've been listening to our Bloomberg Live invest Global virtual event.
Speaker 1: The Carlisle Group's co founder and co executive chairman, David
Speaker 1: Rubinstein catching up with our U S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Minution,
Speaker 1: and of course some of the key headlines, uh were
Speaker 1: a bunch actually a lot listening. Um are talking about
Speaker 1: the economy, um, he said. The Secretary said that they
Speaker 1: are very seriously considering another stimulus and that they discussed
Speaker 1: aspects of a net of another stimulus bill with senators
Speaker 1: and said it could pass possibly by July. He did
Speaker 1: talk us at Terry Stephen Monution about it being more
Speaker 1: targeted to those businesses who need it. He also talked
Speaker 1: about the economic outlook and said he does expect, like
Speaker 1: many that we talked to here on Bloomberg, that there
Speaker 1: would be a bad second quarter and thinks that we
Speaker 1: will see a spectacular rebound off of the third quarter.
Speaker 1: Does think that we will be out of a recession
Speaker 1: by the end of the year. But then went on
Speaker 1: to certainly point out about how we need to watch
Speaker 1: all of those that will still be out of works
Speaker 1: out of work. One more thing, though highly unlikely that
Speaker 1: we will get to a point where we would have
Speaker 1: to shut down the economy again. This on a day
Speaker 1: when we continue to see spikes and virus cases around
Speaker 1: the country. All right, be sure to check out Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Live on the Bloomberg Terminal for more of these conversations
Speaker 1: from our invest Global Virtual event. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Jason Kelly
Speaker 1: wandering into the studio. Yarl mass does this started to Yeah,
Speaker 1: it starts at too. You missed two killer interviews, Um,
Speaker 1: but I know you'll catch up later. Certainly, the US
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretor Stephen Manustion just wrapping up with David Rubinstein,
Speaker 1: and then we heard from Carmen Reinhardt of the World Bank,
Speaker 1: so lots of talk about the outlook. I feel like
Speaker 1: Carmen Reinhardt a little bit more cautious than Stephen Manution. Yeah,
Speaker 1: well that probably checks out, right. I mean, I guess
Speaker 1: nuctions job to be a little uh enthusiastic, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: absolutely so we did feel that. And there's talk of
Speaker 1: another stimulus, as you know, that's certainly given some support
Speaker 1: to the financial markets. We do need to get into
Speaker 1: though our Bloomberg economics today because what's interesting is, you know,
Speaker 1: we know, Jason, you and I have talked about how
Speaker 1: Americans have managed to put aside some money in savings
Speaker 1: in this shutdown, Right, you're not out there spending as
Speaker 1: much money maybe as you you were in the past.
Speaker 1: That's the good news. The bad news is, as Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News Personal Finance editor Ben Steve Berman reports, it may
Speaker 1: not be enough to get Americans through the aftermath, and
Speaker 1: Ben joins us for today's Business Week Economics. He's on
Speaker 1: the phone in New York City. Ben, So, what's going
Speaker 1: on here? Well, for the longest time, economists have been
Speaker 1: worried about the fact that there's a big chunk of
Speaker 1: Americans that just don't seem to be saving very much money.
Speaker 1: So if you ask people, can you handle a four
Speaker 1: hundred dollar expense, about two and five americans say no. Actually,
Speaker 1: if I if that came along, if I had a
Speaker 1: car repair bill or something, I would actually have to
Speaker 1: go into credit card debt to handle it. I don't
Speaker 1: have four hundred dollars in cash sitting around. And that
Speaker 1: was before this crisis. So when this crisis hit, there's
Speaker 1: a bit there's been a lot of worry about like
Speaker 1: what what is this going to do? Especially if it
Speaker 1: goes on too long. So, as you said, right now,
Speaker 1: things look pretty good. There's government stimulus, money has gone
Speaker 1: out and people just aren't spending as much money. But um,
Speaker 1: my story is just basically about what happened as time
Speaker 1: goes on, and there's some reasons to really worry about
Speaker 1: American households. Yeah, I mean the numbers here are really scary,
Speaker 1: as you say, Ben, So what is the I mean,
Speaker 1: is there a remedy here? I mean the market is
Speaker 1: Carol mentioned is rising on the possibility of more stimulus.
Speaker 1: Is more stimulus than the answer or what happens? I
Speaker 1: think I think more stimulus is definitely part of it.
Speaker 1: That the real problem these households are facing is so
Speaker 1: you have people that aren't saving, right, but you actually
Speaker 1: be surprised that um, about half the people who live
Speaker 1: sort of hand a mouth that they're not able to save,
Speaker 1: but half of them actually have some middle class wealth.
Speaker 1: They're actually middle class or not poor. And that's because
Speaker 1: what they're doing is they're putting a lot of their
Speaker 1: wealth in retirement accounts and in their homes, and then
Speaker 1: that just makes it so much harder to access that money,
Speaker 1: um in an emergency. Basically, it's the same liquidity problems
Speaker 1: we face in the financial crisis for for banks, this
Speaker 1: is the same liquidity problems households are potentially going to
Speaker 1: face if there isn't the kind of stimulus, isn't the
Speaker 1: kind of um are the are the kind of benefits
Speaker 1: for safety unemployed or for small business owners that are
Speaker 1: shut down? Um? If those things go away, then then
Speaker 1: households are going to be really having to do things
Speaker 1: like cash out of retirement accounts, which we could mean
Speaker 1: selling at the exact wrong time. It could mean taking
Speaker 1: out uh, you know, home equity loans, even selling homes um,
Speaker 1: just just to be able to survive. Yeah, And that's
Speaker 1: the that's the tough part. Right. So even if they've
Speaker 1: created some wealth, whether it's in their retirement accounts or
Speaker 1: even in their homes, they may be forced to tap
Speaker 1: into the into that and that's really unfortunate, right because
Speaker 1: those are the things that are going to carry them
Speaker 1: in those later years as they get older. Right. And
Speaker 1: the really troubling thing is is when this is happening
Speaker 1: to say people in their fifth these are sixties who
Speaker 1: are getting close to retirement, they don't have time to
Speaker 1: go have a new career um and restart that that
Speaker 1: four ohn K like the money and there is really
Speaker 1: valuable to them, and um, you could really have some
Speaker 1: people who are getting close to retirement who really have
Speaker 1: have a lot to worry about. Well, and it must
Speaker 1: be frustrating for a lot of folks been because in
Speaker 1: some ways, you know, saving for retirement, I mean we
Speaker 1: were sort of beaten, were we beat people into that
Speaker 1: rights like save your money, save your money, put it,
Speaker 1: put it aside. And so to be in this situation
Speaker 1: where folks have to dip into that is uh, beyond disappointing.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's troubling to some extent. Yeah, And there's
Speaker 1: some really good policy questions about that, like should we
Speaker 1: be encouraging so much retirement, so much retirement savings that
Speaker 1: they have the expensive day on a rainy day fund?
Speaker 1: And there are actually some people who say, hey, we
Speaker 1: should really be encouraging middle class people to have these
Speaker 1: randy day funds somehow maybe you can kind of keep
Speaker 1: it off limits somehow, but we you get people to
Speaker 1: save for emergencies like like as I said, like a
Speaker 1: car repair build. If you can't handle a four dollar expense,
Speaker 1: that's really a problem for getting to work every day potentially,
Speaker 1: and so um, but really I don't. I'm not I
Speaker 1: wouldn't blame any of these people for for putting all
Speaker 1: their money retirement accounts. And I mean there's there's a
Speaker 1: tax incentive to do so for both of those things,
Speaker 1: and and you're actually going to get a higher rate
Speaker 1: of return if you do that, as long as nothing
Speaker 1: goes wrong. And of course what's happening now is something
Speaker 1: went wrong, and we're not even tapping those people who
Speaker 1: don't have those retirement plans, or those people who don't
Speaker 1: even have enough money to be able to afford home,
Speaker 1: so they can't even tap into that equity if they
Speaker 1: wanted to. So it's it's a tough situation. Ben, thank
Speaker 1: you so much, and I think it's really timely, especially
Speaker 1: just coming off of Secretary of the Treasury Steve of
Speaker 1: Venusian and Carmen Reinhardt talking about the outlook and what
Speaker 1: kind of recovery we might see on the other side.
Speaker 1: Ben Steve Hman is Personal finance editor. Bloomberg News on
Speaker 1: the Phone in New York City City and check them
Speaker 1: out on Twitter as well as Applomberg dot com. You're
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason
Speaker 1: Kelly on Bloomberg Radio, we turned out to Nick Lieber
Speaker 1: to talk about small business owners still struggling. This has
Speaker 1: been I'm sorry, UM, we are We're continuing to look
Speaker 1: at this story and just try and figure it out.
Speaker 1: So tell us what's going on with this story. Hi, Hi,
Speaker 1: this is Nick weiber Um. I'm a contributor to Bluemberg
Speaker 1: Business Week, and we've been doing a series about how
Speaker 1: main street businesses are dealing with the pandemic. And there's
Speaker 1: been a number of small business administration relief programs and
Speaker 1: other programs to try to help them, and it's been
Speaker 1: kind of uneven and kind of choppy, and the businesses,
Speaker 1: many of the smallest ones, have been having a hard
Speaker 1: time navigating the programs. There's the paycheck Protection program, which
Speaker 1: we've heard a lot about UM and which the application
Speaker 1: deadline is June. There's still over a hundred billion dollars
Speaker 1: available two independent contractors and two small employers. UM. There's
Speaker 1: the e I d L program. There are a bunch
Speaker 1: of different programs. There's there's been a bunch of conflicting
Speaker 1: information UM, and think for the smallest business owners, it's
Speaker 1: been a frustrating process. Yeah, no, doubt about it, Nick,
Speaker 1: and and listen, there's a lot going on in our
Speaker 1: and to forgive us if we were a little crazy,
Speaker 1: my apologies, it's just you know, it's just one of
Speaker 1: those days. Tuesdays are those days where we're always like, ah,
Speaker 1: so listen, I completely get no need please, no need
Speaker 1: to your very busy no needs because totally totally cool.
Speaker 1: I have to say, Jason and I talked to a
Speaker 1: lot of CEOs, and we've talked to a lot of
Speaker 1: members at the small business community. Just yesterday we talked
Speaker 1: with Todd Left, who was the CEO at Hand and
Speaker 1: Stone Massage and Facial Spot. They have a bunch of
Speaker 1: franchisees across the country and about half of them were
Speaker 1: able to tap into the p p P virus relief
Speaker 1: program from the government. And he said, you know, they
Speaker 1: worked with their franchisees to make sure that they could
Speaker 1: get into it, but it's not been so easy for everyone.
Speaker 1: So you guys do this great story and continue the
Speaker 1: great coverage in the magazine about how to do it.
Speaker 1: So what should they be thinking? Because that p p
Speaker 1: P program right the application now deadline is June, so
Speaker 1: it's just around the corner So what do people need
Speaker 1: to be thinking about and where they If you are
Speaker 1: a small business owner, you can still tap into I mean,
Speaker 1: I think you can go to there's an advocacy group's
Speaker 1: website that has a list of lenders i e. Banks
Speaker 1: and others that are still accepting applications. And you don't
Speaker 1: need to be an existing customer, So you can go
Speaker 1: to Small Business Majority's website and you can find a
Speaker 1: list of lenders that will take your application, even if
Speaker 1: you're not an existing customer. You can apply for up
Speaker 1: to ten million dollars and and then you can see
Speaker 1: if you get it. That's part one. Part two, of course,
Speaker 1: is getting that loan forgiven, and the sp A has
Speaker 1: recently released new rules making the forgiveness process in theory easier.
Speaker 1: So those, I think are the two things to keep
Speaker 1: in mind. One that there are still lenders that will
Speaker 1: help you access the money, and to the in theory,
Speaker 1: the forgiveness guidelines are easier. Yeah, it's interesting to to
Speaker 1: have seen this, you know, through the eyes of a
Speaker 1: lot of small businesses, uh, Nick, because it was challenging
Speaker 1: on the front end, and even uh that notion of
Speaker 1: do you have to be a customer you don't have
Speaker 1: to be a customer. I mean that so much of
Speaker 1: this was not clear at the beginning. And I do
Speaker 1: wonder if businesses who aren't smart enough to read Bomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week and your coverage, you know, even realize, you know,
Speaker 1: some of how this is has evolved, because it's certainly
Speaker 1: and this is not a no shade to anyone, but
Speaker 1: it certainly wasn't perfect and easy to understand from the beginning.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, there was a lot of conflicting information. It's
Speaker 1: the rules have changed. Their multiple programs. There's another program
Speaker 1: called E I d L, which used to make loans,
Speaker 1: not not forgivable loans, but loans after disasters of up
Speaker 1: to two million dollars. It's been reduced to a hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty thousand dollars. Confusingly, when you apply, you can't
Speaker 1: put the amount you actually would like to borrow. They
Speaker 1: assess you and they give you what they give you.
Speaker 1: Even more confusing, they will also give you up to
Speaker 1: ten tho dollars. There's a grant you get a thousand
Speaker 1: dollars per employee. Add add you know, to your point,
Speaker 1: just add add to all of that the fact that
Speaker 1: if you're really you know, you run your hair stylist,
Speaker 1: your run a hardware store, your in a pretty small business.
Speaker 1: You don't have a cp A, you don't have a lawyer.
Speaker 1: You're trying to figure this stuff out. Is this alone?
Speaker 1: Is this a grant? So I think it's it's been.
Speaker 1: It's been really tricky for a lot of a lot
Speaker 1: of the smallest businesses. And let's not forget I just
Speaker 1: got about thirty seconds here. You've got the main Street
Speaker 1: lending program from the FED. We heard j Powell talk
Speaker 1: about that a lot. There's also an employee retention credit,
Speaker 1: I mean, there's pandemic unemployment assistance. I mean, and of
Speaker 1: course there's state programs. I mean, this is really a
Speaker 1: helpful article, and we're gonna make sure we put it
Speaker 1: out on Twitter, Nick, because I do think, um, some
Speaker 1: small businesses they just don't have the they're just trying
Speaker 1: to stay alive and they don't even know what's out there.
Speaker 1: So this is a really helpful guide to it. Nick,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, really appreciated. Bloomberg business Week contributor
Speaker 1: Nick liber joining us on the phone from Brooklyn. I
Speaker 1: have to say, Jason, this series, um that Business Week
Speaker 1: has been doing their Business Week Small Business Survival Guy,
Speaker 1: which you can find out more at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 1: These stories have been very specific, lots of details and
Speaker 1: just telling you here's what you need to do here
Speaker 1: Titan go about maybe finding some assistance for your small basis.
Speaker 1: And even the way they're laid out. I love the
Speaker 1: way they're laid out because it's like bing bing bing
Speaker 1: bing bing. This is what you need to know about
Speaker 1: this one. It's very very useful. It's the sort of
Speaker 1: thing you can send around to the small business owners
Speaker 1: that you know and love, and I hope that they
Speaker 1: can take advantage of some of this. And I do
Speaker 1: go back to that conversation as you mentioned yesterday. I'm
Speaker 1: the CEO of handed Stone because if you were able
Speaker 1: to participate in this, I mean, it was the difference
Speaker 1: between surviving and not in many cases. I'm growing a
Speaker 1: journal now. But you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: dr home, honey, please, I'll do the riding revels me.
Speaker 1: I want to drive, just drive, baby questions trying this
Speaker 1: drive to the Cloboberg radio. It is time for the
Speaker 1: drive to the close and back with us. Is Eric Clark,
Speaker 1: portfolio manager of Rational Dynamic brands Fun on the phone
Speaker 1: from San Diego. That Fun, by the way, beating just
Speaker 1: about all of its peers uh this year and over
Speaker 1: the past three years. Over the past three years, Jason
Speaker 1: has been up on average eighteen percent annually, so really
Speaker 1: a consistent top performer. I thought you were going to
Speaker 1: pour one out for the segue. I know I was.
Speaker 1: Dan came in. I wonder what he has to say
Speaker 1: that we should catch up with him anyway. It's like
Speaker 1: to talk to Eric Clark, though. UM, guessing you're not
Speaker 1: tooling around on a segway there in San Diego, though,
Speaker 1: But there's some cool you could be. I mean, there's
Speaker 1: some cool segue tours around San Diego. I'm sure as
Speaker 1: long as I wear a helmet, right exactly, That's exactly right,
Speaker 1: all right? So what do you make of this market?
Speaker 1: Where are you looking? At a time where it feels
Speaker 1: like everybody's enthusiastic about just about everything. It makes me nervous.
Speaker 1: It always makes me nervous when everybody's too excited about anything,
Speaker 1: or when everybody's too scared about everything. So we've actually
Speaker 1: been trimming into this strength. Were at the top end
Speaker 1: of the range and that's you know, that's kind of
Speaker 1: part of our process. You know, sell it the at
Speaker 1: the top end of the range and then and then
Speaker 1: you know, raise some cash and then be able to
Speaker 1: buy at the bottom end of the range because I
Speaker 1: feel like we're going to stick to this higher than
Speaker 1: average volatility, which just gives you bigger ranges that you
Speaker 1: can trade versus invests. So that's that's kind of where
Speaker 1: we're focused. So eat Eric. So if you're trimming into
Speaker 1: the strength, does that mean you're just because some stocks
Speaker 1: have had a significant run up that their positions have
Speaker 1: just gotten too large, So you're just kind of, you know,
Speaker 1: reallocating a little bit or are you increasing cash because
Speaker 1: you feel like we're just at a bit of a
Speaker 1: top here, Well, I feel like we're we're closer to
Speaker 1: a short term top. But you know what, some of
Speaker 1: the names, some of these tech stocks and and digital
Speaker 1: payments stocks have just gone completely insane. I mean, you know, Shopify, Amazon, Spotify, PayPal,
Speaker 1: Square Trade Desk, you know, some of those names have
Speaker 1: just been tremendous performers and and I still think July
Speaker 1: earnings will be a little bit more of a realization
Speaker 1: that things are probably getting better on the margin, but
Speaker 1: maybe not as good as the stocks uh and their
Speaker 1: performance over the last month or two. So you know,
Speaker 1: just kind of risk managing, trimming some of those positions
Speaker 1: that got a little bigger than I would like given,
Speaker 1: you know, the fundamental So we're we're pretty disconnected, and
Speaker 1: I think most people would agree with that. So where
Speaker 1: do you add in a in a market like this
Speaker 1: because there have been some some stocks that have have
Speaker 1: taken some hits here. Yeah, I mean, we're we're adding
Speaker 1: to some of the names that have pulled back. You know,
Speaker 1: I've added to Lulu when it pulled back. Um, I
Speaker 1: added to Facebook when it pulled back, added to home Depot,
Speaker 1: I mean, Sherwin Williams. You know, we're we're selling some
Speaker 1: of the sexy stuff and at in to some of
Speaker 1: the boring stuff, you know, a Domino's pizza, a Walmart,
Speaker 1: some of that stuff. And and that just gives me
Speaker 1: a little bit more balance between you know, being all
Speaker 1: in on the really sexy um, you know, kind of
Speaker 1: high tech brands, high beta brands, and and just getting
Speaker 1: a little bit more balance. And and we're back down
Speaker 1: to you know, having seven or eight per sending cash
Speaker 1: that I love to use as transitional cash because the
Speaker 1: market always gives you an opportunity to buy something on
Speaker 1: a dip. Yeah, what do you make of Starbucks here?
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a pretty radical move that they made
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks back, you know, sort of closing
Speaker 1: stores shifting to this walk up, pick up, drive through
Speaker 1: uh model. It feels like it says something about at
Speaker 1: least where they think we're going in terms of the
Speaker 1: new world order. Yeah, I think I think the road
Speaker 1: might be a little bumpy for for Starbucks. But I
Speaker 1: think they're doing the right thing. They are taking a
Speaker 1: look at their footprint, identifying where they can expand where
Speaker 1: they can get better at least prices, where they can
Speaker 1: add the drive through capabilities. Um, so I think they're
Speaker 1: doing everything that they need to do for any You
Speaker 1: know that you get a pandemic or something like this,
Speaker 1: and it and it shows you where you have some
Speaker 1: holes in your business model, and the smart companies try
Speaker 1: to fix those holes and and I think they'll be
Speaker 1: they'll come out stronger on the other end, just like
Speaker 1: most of the best brands that have the footprint locally,
Speaker 1: they're gonna now get a chance to get better real
Speaker 1: estate prices, better locations for expansion if they have the
Speaker 1: capital and they have the really relevant brand. So the
Speaker 1: Chipotles and the Lulu's and um and Starbucks, they're going
Speaker 1: to be able to expand and that's going to add
Speaker 1: to growth over time. What are some of the trends
Speaker 1: you think coming off the virus eric that will stay
Speaker 1: with us and that might shape your strategy longer term here. Well,
Speaker 1: I think the exercise. I mean, I don't know about
Speaker 1: you guys, but I mean we see more people outside
Speaker 1: just because they're a little bit pent up, and I
Speaker 1: think that that people are getting in shape again it's summertime,
Speaker 1: and I think the trend of just feeling better and
Speaker 1: and and exercising, and that that feeds into the ath
Speaker 1: leisure with the Nike and the Lulu And then I
Speaker 1: just think the e commerce thing is just going to continue.
Speaker 1: If you were an e commerce user, there's nothing that's
Speaker 1: going to change that. But if you were a laggered
Speaker 1: and you were forced to do that and you've realized
Speaker 1: how easy that process is with an Amazon or or
Speaker 1: whoever your favorite brands are, I think you're going to
Speaker 1: start continuing to do that and really focus on the
Speaker 1: brands where you really have a great experience at the
Speaker 1: shopping level, like a Lulu um that that that's gonna
Speaker 1: You're gonna focus on those physical stores where you love it,
Speaker 1: but you're also going to use e commerce as a
Speaker 1: way to you know, streamline your day and be more efficient,
Speaker 1: and that that leads into a big overweight in Amazon still.
Speaker 1: And I know, Jason, you guys as a family do
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff online and a lot of apps.
Speaker 1: We do too, But it's interesting having conversations. I talked
Speaker 1: to Buddy just this morning. They're like, yeah, we did
Speaker 1: our first order you know, through instacrt as a result
Speaker 1: of being shut down, you know, several months ago. So
Speaker 1: it's I do think that there it's an environment that
Speaker 1: Eric's right, you know, like we've heard from others that
Speaker 1: people are doing things differently and they're like, Okay, this
Speaker 1: wasn't so hard. I like it and may stay with it.
Speaker 1: And so that's the trend. Yeah, And so what do
Speaker 1: you worry the most about sort of disrupting this market, Eric, Well,
Speaker 1: I I think the unemployment claims and the support that
Speaker 1: we're getting, you know, if Congress decides to drag their
Speaker 1: views a little bit, there's a lot of people, I
Speaker 1: mean millions of people who are going to find themselves
Speaker 1: with not having some of the support that they have
Speaker 1: and they don't have a job, and if it's harder
Speaker 1: to find a job, I mean that that's certainly an issue.
Speaker 1: So I hope that they do what they need to
Speaker 1: do to support this economy and the and the population
Speaker 1: and the unemployed. Um, while while we're kind of getting
Speaker 1: back to normal with with companies feeling better about hiring again,
Speaker 1: so not always worries me. July earnings again, not that
Speaker 1: they're going to be particularly bad, but maybe they're just
Speaker 1: not as good as the doc market indicates. And then
Speaker 1: I and then I always worry about the election, that
Speaker 1: that will come over, you know, when we get in
Speaker 1: through the through the rest of the year. But the
Speaker 1: July earnings and I think the support the Congress is
Speaker 1: kind of giving people I think are the bigger issues
Speaker 1: because those are those are near turn that we have
Speaker 1: to focus on well. In the Secretary of Treasury Steven
Speaker 1: and Nushan already said second quarter not expecting much, but
Speaker 1: expects to start to see a recovery come the third
Speaker 1: quarter and into later this year. Eric Clark, Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, portfolio manager at Rational Dynamic Brands Fun joining
Speaker 1: us on the phone from San Diego. Thanks so much
Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on itune,
Speaker 1: South Cloud, Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: And of course you can always listen to our radio
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