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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along

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Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from ceo, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Let's bring in our next guest.

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Speaker 1: Now going to be a fascinating conversation with Jim Anderson,

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Speaker 1: who is CEO of Social Flow and in full disclosure,

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Speaker 1: social Floe as a platform that is used by Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: for social media purposes, used by many many companies. Jim, Welcome.

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Speaker 1: We brought you on because we want to talk to

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Speaker 1: you a little bit about what happened at that also

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Speaker 1: rally over the weekend and how K pop Zoomers and

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Speaker 1: those who stand with them, if you like, managed to

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Speaker 1: reserve tickets for this rally and then of course they

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Speaker 1: didn't turn up. They weren't interested in doing that. They

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Speaker 1: how did it work to talk to us about TikTok

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Speaker 1: and the power of sort of amplification. Yeah, funny, Jail,

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Speaker 1: thanks for having me. This is this is a great

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Speaker 1: story in terms of just illustrating the power of viral

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Speaker 1: distribution on social networks, right, I mean that's not a

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Speaker 1: new concept. Facebook's weren't been around for more than a decade,

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Speaker 1: Twitter and others. And so what we saw is TikTok,

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Speaker 1: which is an application typically is for like to dance

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Speaker 1: videos being harnessed in a really new and different way.

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Speaker 1: But the same algorithms that pow are those dance videos

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Speaker 1: and make them show up in your feet also power

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Speaker 1: the teenage activists efforts and interestingly, they're they're disappearing messages. Right.

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Speaker 1: One of the things about TikTok is the messages disappear

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Speaker 1: after some period of time. So not only did their

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Speaker 1: parents not know what was going on, because parents, I

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Speaker 1: have a teenage daughter, it's awfully difficult to know what's

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Speaker 1: going on with your teenager, but the messages themselves disappeared.

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Speaker 1: So it's sort of teenage tradecraft at work in a

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Speaker 1: in a social media world. So, Jim, do we have

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Speaker 1: hard data that shows that this is what really happened,

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Speaker 1: that there was, in fact, I guess quote unquote bogus

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Speaker 1: requests for tickets that were never fulfilled or picked up. Well,

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Speaker 1: we don't, and there's really no way for us to know.

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Speaker 1: I can I can bet you that the campaign, the

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Speaker 1: Trump campaign, has that data, but it's certainly not going

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Speaker 1: to be in their interests to sort of give this

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Speaker 1: story any oxygen and to admit that that happened. And

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Speaker 1: I do want to make one really important point, because

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Speaker 1: this this issue officers gets dislated. The activities of the

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Speaker 1: teenagers didn't keep people from showing up to the rally.

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Speaker 1: I think the fact that we're in the midst of

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Speaker 1: a global pandemic. The rally was in Tulsa, Oklahoma. That

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Speaker 1: population of Tulsa's four hundred thousand. You know, you're asking

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Speaker 1: to fill an eighteen or nineteen thousand feet arena plus

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Speaker 1: forty thousand feet of of overflow from the outdoor stage.

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Speaker 1: I think what they did, though, is they created the expectation,

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Speaker 1: oh my goodness, this thing is out of control. The

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Speaker 1: campaign wanted to believe that there was sort of this

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Speaker 1: giant pent up demand, and so then they started talking

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Speaker 1: about it. They wanted to believe it was true, and

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Speaker 1: then they got set up just for a big, giant,

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Speaker 1: sort of deflation of expectations. That's what the thieves managed

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Speaker 1: to see exactly. So, on the one hand, there was

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Speaker 1: a little bit of hubris. They were boasting about how

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Speaker 1: many people are coming, they were creating out door overflow spaces.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, there was complacency. They didn't sort

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Speaker 1: of call to arms the base, which may have been

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Speaker 1: a good thing given the coronavirus has definitely knock gone away.

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Speaker 1: What's the power that you know, a group of fans

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Speaker 1: like K pop fans and zoomers and so on can

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Speaker 1: leverage on TikTok Beyond this is there is there something

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Speaker 1: a little more political in terms of getting out the

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Speaker 1: vote or in terms of you know, um, convincing people

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Speaker 1: to participate in democracy more. Yeah, I think there definitely

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Speaker 1: are a lot of things and and you know, many

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Speaker 1: people are excited that. Wow, that's is sort of the

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Speaker 1: type of a much larger sphere as uh teenagers come

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Speaker 1: of age, come of voting age. Specifically, I saw speciftic

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Speaker 1: this morning that one of an eligible voters will be

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Speaker 1: gen z uh and the upcoming presidential election. So you know,

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Speaker 1: they they're starting to find their voice. And I'll go

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Speaker 1: back to these algorithms. I mean, it's now very specky

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Speaker 1: and not very accessible to talk about algorithms, but largely

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Speaker 1: algorithms are a political right. They can spread content on left, right, middle,

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Speaker 1: updown that they generally are not political. I know people's

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Speaker 1: criticisms of them are significant and they feel like their

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Speaker 1: side is being discriminated against. But if the teenagers are

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Speaker 1: excited and are spreading it and are paying attention, the

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Speaker 1: algorithms noticed that, and then they contribute to that. And

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Speaker 1: I've sent viral distribution of of content is and and

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Speaker 1: that's exactly what TikTok is doing. So jim I, I

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Speaker 1: know that TikTok is a Chinese company. I can imagine

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration that Trump campaign knows this as well.

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Speaker 1: Should we expect a torrent of tweets coming out of

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Speaker 1: President Trump, you know, saying that Chinese China is interfering

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Speaker 1: with the election of the campaign. Well, I would always

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Speaker 1: hesitate to predict what the president is going to do

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Speaker 1: on Twitter for all the obvious reasons. But I will

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Speaker 1: say that there was bound to be some really uncomfortable

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Speaker 1: conversations and probably uncomfortable Sunday at TikTok. When you're owned

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Speaker 1: by a Chinese company, They've gone to great efforts, including

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Speaker 1: hiring a very senior executive from Disney to try to

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Speaker 1: sort of build their brand as not a Chinese own brand.

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Speaker 1: That's probably the last thing they want to say. And

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Speaker 1: to be clear, TikTok. TikTok really had nothing to do

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Speaker 1: with this from a company standpoint. They just provided the platform.

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Speaker 1: The K pop users or other teenagers provided the excitement

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Speaker 1: and the energy, and they used the platform in some

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Speaker 1: ways as the platform was designed to be used, which

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Speaker 1: is to distribute you know, viral videos, um. But but

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Speaker 1: in other ways, you know, sort of the use case

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Speaker 1: in and around politics is certainly not what TikTok likely

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Speaker 1: had in mind. Jim Anderson, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us. Fascinating kind of story here that I'm sure

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Speaker 1: is going to continue to develop and will continue to follow.

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Speaker 1: Jim Anderson, CEO of Social Flow, based in New York City, Fannie,

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Speaker 1: that's just interesting. You think about social media and the

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Speaker 1: impact that's having obviously across all of our lives over

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Speaker 1: the past ten years or so, but certainly the political

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Speaker 1: sphere as well. And we thought it was really limited

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Speaker 1: to a kind of a Facebook, a Twitter kind of thing,

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Speaker 1: but here comes TikTok, and each one of these platforms

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Speaker 1: has a different way of connecting with the audience. And

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Speaker 1: it may be the same audience and maybe different audiences,

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Speaker 1: but TikTok content needs to be very different from Twitter

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Speaker 1: content or Facebook content. And just as a as a

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Speaker 1: sort of a separate example, you look at Sarah Cooper,

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Speaker 1: who's the impersonator of Trump. She made her debut really

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Speaker 1: on TikTok, even though she had been on the other platforms.

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Speaker 1: It was on TikTok that you really took off and

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Speaker 1: then transferred to Twitter. Yeah, and as Jim mentioned, TikTok

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Speaker 1: obviously really popular with the really the the younger demos.

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Speaker 1: And that's certainly interesting from a political perspective. And it

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Speaker 1: is time checken with Bloomberg Opinion or Joy Now by

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Neil Ferguson. He's also Senior Fellow at

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Speaker 1: the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Noted historian of course,

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Speaker 1: and author of many many books, from The Ascent of

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Speaker 1: Money to the House of Rothschild, Too Much much More. Neil,

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Speaker 1: thanks for joining your latest column. America is on the road,

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Speaker 1: but whether it's on the road to relapse or recovery

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Speaker 1: is the question. What say you? Well, maybe both. That's

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Speaker 1: the same. We can see really to rapid recovery, not

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Speaker 1: only in some of the obvious nuns like the unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate or retail sales, but actually mobility data, which is

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Speaker 1: a great higher frequency tracker of what's happening in the country.

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Speaker 1: And you can see that just looking at say the

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Speaker 1: Google data on trips to retail and recreation destination. They're

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Speaker 1: on track to be back normal by around July ten

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Speaker 1: or eleventh. And at the same time, what we're seeing

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Speaker 1: is significant increases in case numbers, not nationwide, but in

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Speaker 1: particular regions the South, for example, some Western states, and

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Speaker 1: so we've got both relatively rapid it's not v shaped recovery. Also,

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Speaker 1: and of course there's a relationship. You're getting this increase

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Speaker 1: in in case numbers, positive tests and hospitalizations, especially in

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Speaker 1: states like Aaron Zone, Florida and texass to look like

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Speaker 1: you've got got a second wave of COVID ninetine in

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Speaker 1: those states, and that that's the problem that we're seeing

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Speaker 1: in the US today. Were rapidly retuble economically, but without

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Speaker 1: social distending, without masks wearing, people are being somewhat reckless.

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Speaker 1: By comparison with the europe pensive part. And that's driving

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Speaker 1: in case numbers back up neil to what extent as

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Speaker 1: the I guess the COVID virus and a response to

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Speaker 1: it at the state level and the reopening strategies at

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Speaker 1: the state level, how was that to what extent has

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Speaker 1: that become politicized? I e. The more conservative UH states

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Speaker 1: and regions of the country perhaps taken a less stringent

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Speaker 1: uh COVID response than maybe some of the more democratic

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Speaker 1: or liberal regions of the country. It's hy politicized more

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Speaker 1: than I think in any other country that I've I've studied.

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Speaker 1: Attitudes towards the pandemic itself varies substantially across party lines.

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Speaker 1: If you look at civics data, Democrats are still really

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Speaker 1: worried about COVID betein in their area and Republicans really aren't.

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Speaker 1: You look at the different strategies states have adopted. The

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Speaker 1: speaking Blue states slower to reopen uh US in touch

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Speaker 1: lockdowns all along and red states UH less intense locklands

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Speaker 1: ease earlier reopening. And so what that translates in a

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Speaker 1: really striking feature, really striking divergence in not only have

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Speaker 1: them on the recovery, but the second wave problem. Now,

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Speaker 1: there's a slightly confounding fact here which shares some uh,

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Speaker 1: some eidemiologists have been commenting on in the last twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours that part of what makes COVID nineteens spread

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Speaker 1: a lot is their conditioning teams, and so in states

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Speaker 1: that are hotter, like Arizona where people actually don't want

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Speaker 1: to be outside because it's so hot, in mus Try,

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Speaker 1: in parts of Texas, obviously in Florida, air con use

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Speaker 1: has gone up in the last couple of months. And

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Speaker 1: so because of the correlation between red states and hot states,

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Speaker 1: it's not just a partisan divide that's driving a second

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Speaker 1: wave in red states. It's also the fact that they're

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Speaker 1: hot states. Yeah, and I will say our books southerl

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Speaker 1: Under a great column on that. The other day, Neil

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Speaker 1: talked to us about the different approaches to reopening around

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Speaker 1: the world, because obviously, you know, countries can't stay closed forever.

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Speaker 1: And you have Italy, which was extraordinarily badly hit reopening

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Speaker 1: and I'm sure they were terrified, but they did it.

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Speaker 1: The likes of Sweden, which didn't take the same approach whatsoever,

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Speaker 1: and as having sort of different problems. Now, is there

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Speaker 1: a model that's maybe the perfect model. Well, there are

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Speaker 1: certainly better models than the one that the US is adopting,

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Speaker 1: which my colleague Hoover John Cochin called the dumb reopening,

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Speaker 1: where you just go back to normal without social distancing

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Speaker 1: really and without mask wearing. If you go all the

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Speaker 1: way to East Asia where the pandemic struck first, the

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Speaker 1: role more balls of Taiwan and South Korea, which really

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Speaker 1: pioneered early testing and contact tracing, didn't have to do

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Speaker 1: full lockdowns, and in fact, in the case of Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: have had minimal COVID nine for COVID nineteen fatalities. Europe

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Speaker 1: lies somewhere in the middle, and it is a very

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Speaker 1: picture because you've had pretty disastrous experiences in Italy and

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Speaker 1: Spain and Belgium, whereas in Germany and also interestingly in

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Speaker 1: Greece they quickly cottoned onto the need for for testing

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Speaker 1: and contact tracing. And I think if you look at

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Speaker 1: the European states that have reopened the soonest, and that

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Speaker 1: would include Germany, Austria, Denmark as well as Switzerland, there's

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Speaker 1: no sign as at this point of second waves in

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Speaker 1: those countries, not in case numbers and certainly not immortality.

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Speaker 1: It's all about jumping on these super spreader events because

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen is is spread by a relative minority of

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Speaker 1: people who given to a lot of people, like twent

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Speaker 1: of infected people are responsible for eight a send of infections.

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Speaker 1: If you're doing testing and contact tracing, you can get

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Speaker 1: those super spreaders or stop the super spreader events from happening.

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Speaker 1: If you don't do testing and contact tracing in a

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Speaker 1: systematic way, which is the American route that we're going down,

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Speaker 1: it's basically playing lack a mole with a blindfold on,

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Speaker 1: and if you've ever tried that, you'll find that you

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Speaker 1: miss a lot of mold ken you know, at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of this whole issue, here, this whole process of

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Speaker 1: dealing with the pandemic, I was surprised there wasn't a

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Speaker 1: federal response. It was more of a state by state response,

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Speaker 1: and we became accustomed hearing Governor Cuomwell from the State

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Speaker 1: of New York giving this the daily update. Should I

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Speaker 1: have expected a federal response, well, historically, because it's a

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Speaker 1: federal system which devolves a lot of responsibility to state

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Speaker 1: and indeed municipalities. The answer that question, no, really because

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Speaker 1: in all the previous pandemics, whether you look at the

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Speaker 1: Big Influenza or there the other influenza pandemic of fifty

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Speaker 1: seven fifty, it was essentially a decentralized story where state

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Speaker 1: municipalities took their own decisions about how strictly to limit

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Speaker 1: public gatherings. So this is certainly not an unprecedented story.

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Speaker 1: I do think that the federal government has a role

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Speaker 1: to play, though, and I don't think it played that

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Speaker 1: role very brillian. This is usually blamed on President Trump,

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Speaker 1: I think to access by the media. Clearly his judgment

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Speaker 1: wasn't fantastic, and indeed on some issues it was downright crazy.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at what was going on at

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Speaker 1: the level of the Department of Health and Human Services

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Speaker 1: and look down at CDC, there was a pretty serious

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Speaker 1: public health failure at the federal level. Testing, far from

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Speaker 1: being ramped up, actually was held back by CDC. And

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Speaker 1: I do think there's a lot of questions still to

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Speaker 1: be asked about why it was that HHS generally failed

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Speaker 1: but at least communicate effectively to the states what they

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Speaker 1: needed to do. So no, I think there was a

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Speaker 1: failure at the federal level, even in this system that

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Speaker 1: is relatively de central minded. Neil, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. We really appreciate your insight. Neil Ferguson.

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Speaker 1: He's a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

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Speaker 1: Also Bloomberg opinion columnists based at their in beautiful Palo

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Speaker 1: out There, California, one of the greatest, most beautiful places

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Speaker 1: in the US. Well, as you know, it's been quite

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Speaker 1: the volatile a few months. Markets underwritten by central banks

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Speaker 1: around the world, and plenty plenty demand four dollars. Let's

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Speaker 1: bring in somebody who knows a little bit about how

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Speaker 1: to put together a portfolio and what to do maybe

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Speaker 1: in an era of such volatility. Down scaley as head

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Speaker 1: of market research and Strategy of Wealth Management, and Morgan

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Speaker 1: Stanley Don thanks for joining. You obviously have plenty of

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Speaker 1: clients that are probably calling you and saying, what do

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Speaker 1: we do, where do we put our our our money

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Speaker 1: to work? What asset classes could benefit us here? What

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Speaker 1: do you say to them? Yeah, good morning, Bonny, and

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for having me on your your

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Speaker 1: show this morning. So a look, we're getting called and

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Speaker 1: we're getting zoomed. Of course now by time, so we're

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Speaker 1: telling them a couple of things. Number One, we're saying

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Speaker 1: that you've seen the big crash and the big euphoric

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Speaker 1: rally back and the big news. The big fireworks are

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Speaker 1: over for now. We think the market is likely to

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Speaker 1: consolidate into a arrange the next three to six months,

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Speaker 1: as the market starts to consider some other factors including

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Speaker 1: what's the rate of change on the reopening amid the reopening,

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Speaker 1: what does the virus flare ups look like? Um. At

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Speaker 1: the same time, you're gonna start to hear more positive

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Speaker 1: progress or potential headlines around vaccines, anti viral therapy. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And so the market is really juggling a lot of factors,

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Speaker 1: both to the upside and the downside, and in some

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Speaker 1: we think that keeps the market rather consolidated at least

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Speaker 1: for the next three or six months. But we do

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Speaker 1: think going into next year, and you've heard Morgan family

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Speaker 1: talk about this extensively now for three months, we do

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Speaker 1: think the overarching theme is a V shaped economic for

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Speaker 1: every going into next year. All right, Dan, So the

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Speaker 1: V shape recovery going into next year, that's you know,

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Speaker 1: at one point that was kind of I would call

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Speaker 1: it consensus initially uh, and then that seemed to fade.

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Speaker 1: Here is the the depths of the pandemic. Any economic

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Speaker 1: data started coming out and people are saying, I don't

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Speaker 1: think that V is gonna happen. Now it seems to

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Speaker 1: be coming back a little bit. What's the the kind

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Speaker 1: of the two or three drivers for you to say

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Speaker 1: a V shape recovery? Sure, it's it's an excellent question,

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Speaker 1: and one I would just highlight we we really reiterated

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Speaker 1: throughout despite potentially you know, changing sentiments among among the consensus.

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Speaker 1: So what's driving the V shape recovery. It's really the

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Speaker 1: size and the scope and the speed of policy. So

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Speaker 1: when you look at fiscal and monetary policy combined, we've

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Speaker 1: already executed around a level around fifty five oh of

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Speaker 1: U s GDP, which we all know it far exceeds

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Speaker 1: any historical stimulus measures in any cycle ever. So that's

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Speaker 1: number one. Number two, we think that the speed of

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Speaker 1: the policy response has been incredibly notable. Why because when

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Speaker 1: you look at precedents like oh A, it took the

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Speaker 1: FED and it took Congress months to put together the

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Speaker 1: emergency playbooks they executed back then, and that unfortunately allowed

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Speaker 1: the credit cycle to deepen. And so what's really different

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Speaker 1: this time is that the policymakers acted immediately. And the

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Speaker 1: fact was the episode of the crisis was health. So

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Speaker 1: it's a completely bipartisan related epicenter and and and something

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Speaker 1: everyone could band together around. And I think that's really crucial, right,

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Speaker 1: because it prevented a health slash economic crisis from morphing

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Speaker 1: into a financial crisis. So the second part of the

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Speaker 1: policy V shaped impact is truly seeing the credit markets

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Speaker 1: and some of the liquidity in the markets, functioning companies

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Speaker 1: accessing capital markets very efficiently as you've seen. And I

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Speaker 1: guess I would say the last part, right is we

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Speaker 1: all know we are a consumer lead economy, and when

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Speaker 1: you look at the initial reaction from consumers who are

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Speaker 1: just starting to reopen and resume normal activities. We saw

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Speaker 1: the retail sales upside surprise recently. We heard a very

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Speaker 1: positive housing and mortgage update at our Morgan Stanley Financials

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Speaker 1: conference recently. We think the consumer is going to come

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Speaker 1: back particularly strong given the pend up demand, and that

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Speaker 1: all informs the V shaped scenario done. What proportion of

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Speaker 1: the people you speak with, both clients and colleagues are

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Speaker 1: concerned about inflation? Very very few, So it's something we

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Speaker 1: don't hear often either from our institutional clients. Were the

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Speaker 1: largest prime broker in the world. We don't hear it

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Speaker 1: very often from our wealth management clients. Perhaps sporadically from

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Speaker 1: the wealth management clients too, are particularly um you know,

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Speaker 1: from business owning backgrounds, etcetera. Who are you know? They're

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Speaker 1: very focused on the deficit as an example, and and

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Speaker 1: that makes sense. But in terms of the overall fears

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Speaker 1: or concerns around inflation, I would say it's very limited.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's another point Morgan Stanley has made

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Speaker 1: in terms of an upside surprise having that policy response,

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Speaker 1: that continuation in policy, particularly on the fiscal side, we

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Speaker 1: do expect a re up of fiscal upwards of a

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Speaker 1: trillion when the some of the benefits expire July month

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Speaker 1: end um. We also would highlight again the consumer demand

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Speaker 1: the recovering commodity markets. We've seen tremendous capital expenditure declines

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Speaker 1: in oil given everything that's happening there now, We've obviously

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Speaker 1: seen a pickup in driving well, I'm sure we'll see

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Speaker 1: eventually a pick up in more airline related transportation fuel

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Speaker 1: demand that will take longer obviously, but it'll happen, and

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Speaker 1: thus you get to see an upward bias towards commodity

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Speaker 1: prices um and then, last but not least, what happens

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Speaker 1: with China. Right, this is really an enormous question mark

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Speaker 1: in terms of capital uh moving around the world, supply

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Speaker 1: chains and to the extent we have supply chain restoring,

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Speaker 1: that's potentially another source of inflation down the road. Hey, Dan,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us day. We really appreciate

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Speaker 1: your thoughts. We've covered a lot of ground there. Dan Skelly,

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Speaker 1: head of Equity market Model, Portfolios and market Strategy at

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley Wealth Manager. They have about two and a

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Speaker 1: half trillion dollars under management, so they get to see

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Speaker 1: a lot of the market. Giving us his thoughts there,

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Speaker 1: And Vonnie, I think the key thing is there Morgan

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Speaker 1: Stanley holding to that V shaped recovery. Yeah. And I'm

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Speaker 1: really fascinated that not more people are just floating the

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Speaker 1: idea of potential inflation. And perhaps it is because Bill

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Speaker 1: Dudley's op ed in Bloomberg Opinion put it in my

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Speaker 1: mind today. But there is a huge balance street out there,

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Speaker 1: and you have to wonder how long it will be

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Speaker 1: before people do start to be concerned about inflation. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you think about a ten trillion dollar balance. She just extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: We were a below four billion dollars just several months ago.

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Speaker 1: Now we have a very interesting interview for you this

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Speaker 1: as travel begins to ramp up just ever so slowly again, Delta,

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Speaker 1: for example, saying that it was going to restart flights

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Speaker 1: to China via Soul this week. It's only going to

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Speaker 1: be once a week, and then July it will be

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Speaker 1: twice a week. But we are seeing just very small

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Speaker 1: green shoots of travel starting up. Bryantsky is Airbnbs CEO.

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Speaker 1: He is discussing with Bloomberg here now White travel as

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Speaker 1: we know it will never actually be the same. None

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Speaker 1: of us were prepared for really a once in a

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Speaker 1: century crisis. Our industry travel has described COVID as as

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Speaker 1: big as nine eleven and two thousand and eight, many

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Speaker 1: times over, something more akin to World War Two. And

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Speaker 1: when that happened, it felt like I was working on

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Speaker 1: our S one. We were going to file it March

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Speaker 1: thirty one, and it felt like twelve years of success,

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Speaker 1: and you know, had all these things, and life was

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Speaker 1: great and suddenly in you know, you build something in

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Speaker 1: twelve weeks and you lose most of it in four weeks.

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Speaker 1: I can't quite describe what that feels like. And it

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Speaker 1: just felt like everything the company oak. I felt like

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Speaker 1: a captain of a ship in our torpedo just hit

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Speaker 1: the side of the ship. Now, travel came basically to

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Speaker 1: a standstill, and in many cases people didn't want to travel,

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Speaker 1: or they couldn't travel legally. It was illegal to rent

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Speaker 1: an airbnb. What was the lowest point for you? The

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Speaker 1: darkest hour? There were so many dark hours. That's the

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Speaker 1: old like quote attribute to Winston Churchill. If you're going

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Speaker 1: through hell, just keep going and man um I will

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Speaker 1: tell you the first dark moment was when we had

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Speaker 1: about a billion dollars of cancelations from guests. You also

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Speaker 1: had to cut of the company, and you gave you know,

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Speaker 1: an incredibly generous severance package your note to the team.

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Speaker 1: I could I could feel the pain in there, you know,

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Speaker 1: talk to me about going through that process cut your staff.

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Speaker 1: It was the saddest thing I've ever done in my life,

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Speaker 1: at least professionally, and we weren't sure if we'd have

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Speaker 1: to do a layoff and we had to face the

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Speaker 1: hard truth that travel we did not know when it

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Speaker 1: was gonna return, and we knew that when travel returned,

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Speaker 1: it would be different, it would never be the same.

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Speaker 1: You don't think travel will ever be the same, Well, um,

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Speaker 1: I will. I I don't know for sure, but here's

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Speaker 1: what I'll say. Travel will be back, but we'll look different.

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Speaker 1: What trends are you seeing in Europe and Asia versus

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Speaker 1: the United States? So United States has been very, very strong.

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Speaker 1: It's again, I don't want to I want to clarify,

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Speaker 1: it's we. We we cannot declare recovery anywhere because we

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Speaker 1: don't yet know where it's pent up demand in temporary

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Speaker 1: or sustainable recovery. But we've seen a temporary recovery. United States, Europe,

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Speaker 1: most of Europe we've seen a recovery, a temporary recovery.

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Speaker 1: Other than the United Kingdom. United Kingdom I think is

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Speaker 1: still lockdown until July one, But France, Germany, Italy, Spain,

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Speaker 1: you're seeing really strong growth. Um, Latin America is not

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Speaker 1: covered in. Asia is starting to recover but not yet recovered.

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Speaker 1: So North America and Europe are extremely strong. Latin America

430
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: Asia kind of a bit behind. How much do you

431
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 1: think getting back to a normal defense on a vaccine

432
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 1: or even then, things are going to be different. Travel

433
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 1: as you knew it is over. You're never ever gonna

434
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: see it again. I'll just say that right there, travel

435
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: as we knew it from the Valentine's Day and before

436
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: is over. It's gone. It doesn't mean travel is gone,

437
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: but that travel is gone, and nobody knows quite what

438
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: it's going to be because it's really up to the

439
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: industry to invent the way forward. But again, I think

440
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: business travel is really really going to be hit for

441
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: a while. I think a lot of people are realizing

442
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,239
Speaker 1: they can do meetings on zoom, the rethinking a lot

443
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: of the conventions and conferences. People are going to rediscover

444
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 1: the outdoors. For example, there's four hundred national parks in

445
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 1: the country. Most Americans have never been a national park.

446
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 1: Most Americans don't even know if they live within two

447
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: hundred miles in national park. I think one prediction national

448
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: parks gonna be in People are going to travel a

449
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 1: lot more out yours. These are things that are going

450
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: to happen. And the other thing that I think is

451
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: going to happen is travel in living are going to

452
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 1: blend together. What do I mean, Well, if you can

453
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: do your job from home, then if you can work

454
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 1: from home, you can fearly work from any home anywhere

455
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: in the world, as long as you're in the right

456
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: time zone. And so what you're gonna start to see

457
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: is not just travel redistribution, but you might see and

458
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: no one can say for sure, population redistribution. People may

459
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 1: start moving to small towns and communities. That was a

460
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 1: fascinating discussion Airbnb CEO Bryant Chesky speaking with Bloomer Technologies

461
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: Emily Chang on why travel as we know it will

462
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: never be the saying that's a big, big statement, Vonni.

463
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: I wonder how things will in fact play out. I mean,

464
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: it's good to actually hear the truth, right Poles. So

465
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: many people pretending that, you know, at some point we

466
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: will go back to pre pandemic times, but that's never

467
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: gonna happen. We're never going to be pre pandemic again.

468
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: And you know, as much as people say these things

469
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 1: emerge every twenty years or so, when it's true, this one,

470
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: for you is different in the sense that it is

471
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: just so ridiculously easy to catch, and you know, vaccines

472
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 1: are so far away. We don't know how long they last.

473
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: So yeah, I can completely imagine the travel as we

474
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 1: knew it, where you just could hop out to the

475
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: air board, jump on a you know, a shuttle plane

476
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 1: down to DC or wherever you wanted to go in

477
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: the world that's done. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see.

478
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: I mean, Brian Chesky, Airbnb CEO, he certainly has a

479
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 1: great window into global travel trends. I mean, Airbnb is

480
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: just everywhere, and he was suggesting that certain European markets

481
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 1: coming back a little bit sooner than some others. UK

482
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,439
Speaker 1: still in lockdown, and you're seeing some pockets of strength

483
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 1: here in the US. Um. But again, I think the

484
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: until there is you know, arguably, I think a lot

485
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: of observers say, until there is a globally available vaccine

486
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: that you know, just consumer activity in general on a

487
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: global scale will be greatly reduced or just certainly impacted.

488
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: And I think that's kind of what we're hearing from

489
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: the Airbnb CEO. And it's interesting that he hasn't ruled

490
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: out an i P O this year, but artney, yeah,

491
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 1: I'm sure it's not something they're immediately thinking about. Also,

492
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 1: that lawsuit with New York City has now been settled

493
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: about providing host data, and in New York you you

494
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 1: have to stay for thirty days now, which also changes

495
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: the business model. Yeah, absolutely so off to see how

496
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: that plays out for the good folks at Airbnb. Thanks

497
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and

498
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast

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00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,959
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at

500
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn. And Paul Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

501
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

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00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio