WEBVTT - Counterrevolution in Egypt

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<v Speaker 1>Hello everyone and welcome to It Could Happen Here.

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<v Speaker 2>My name is Dana Al-Kurd.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a researcher of Arab and Palestinian politics and today

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<v Speaker 1>I'm joined by Hossam Al-Hamalawi. Hossam is a journalist and

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<v Speaker 1>socialist from Cairo who was among the organizers of the

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<v Speaker 1>2011 protest.

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<v Speaker 2>He's been involved in the labor movement.

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<v Speaker 1>And the fight against police brutality in Egypt for many

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<v Speaker 1>years and holds a PhD in political science from the Free.

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<v Speaker 2>University of Berlin. He publishes a weekly newsletter on Egyptian politics,

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<v Speaker 2>which I'll be linking in the show notes, and is

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<v Speaker 2>author of the new book, Counter-Revolution in Egypt, Sisi's New Republic.

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<v Speaker 3>Hassan, thanks for joining us. Thank you, Diana, for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>So let me start off by talking about the beginning

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<v Speaker 2>of your book.

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<v Speaker 1>At the beginning of your book, you talk about your

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<v Speaker 1>own abduction and torture by state security in 2000. And

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<v Speaker 1>then you were an organizer, as I said, of the

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<v Speaker 1>2011 uprising. So how did living through this crisis repression

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<v Speaker 1>on a personal level shaped the way that you studied

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<v Speaker 1>the repression? And what can a participant see that maybe

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<v Speaker 1>an outside scholar might miss?

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<v Speaker 3>There was like a long-running tradition in academia and in journalism,

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<v Speaker 3>which fortunately is being challenged over the past couple of

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<v Speaker 3>decades at least. whereby this tradition tended to regard the

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<v Speaker 3>scholar or the journalist as someone who's completely separate from

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<v Speaker 3>whatever they are studying or reporting on. They should be,

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<v Speaker 3>between quotes, neutral, between quotes, objective. Any form of attachment

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<v Speaker 3>or passion for any cause would be considered a conflict

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<v Speaker 3>of interest, more or less. But I mean, a great

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<v Speaker 3>chunk of my career, and this is also expressed in

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<v Speaker 3>this book, I've been trying to challenge that. I consider

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<v Speaker 3>myself a scholar activist, not just a scholar. I was

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<v Speaker 3>also an activist journalist, not just a journalist. And in

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<v Speaker 3>that regards, in answer to your question, my experience when

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<v Speaker 3>it comes to state repression has definitely shaped not just

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<v Speaker 3>my intellectual trajectory, but my own personal life. After all,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm doing this interview with you from Berlin, not from

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<v Speaker 3>my home in Cairo, which I had to leave in

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<v Speaker 3>2015 and, you know, can't go back as long as

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<v Speaker 3>this regime exists. My repression, which included the repeated arrests, torture,

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<v Speaker 3>continuous threats to me and my family, exclusion from jobs,

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<v Speaker 3>and I mean, the list is too long. have planted

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<v Speaker 3>in me curiosity and also an existential reason to study

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<v Speaker 3>who's repressing me, actually. I mean, we tend to talk

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<v Speaker 3>about the state or the security apparatus. And I was

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<v Speaker 3>very much interested in putting faces and names to these

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<v Speaker 3>kind of entities. Who's doing what when it comes to repression?

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<v Speaker 3>Who's doing the monitoring and who's doing the arrest? What's

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<v Speaker 3>the profile of the officers who conduct these missions? Where

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<v Speaker 3>do they come from? What's their background? What's their life trajectories?

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<v Speaker 3>How do they justify for themselves their actions? What's their worldview?

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<v Speaker 3>And in so many ways, this curiosity has took me

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<v Speaker 3>on a very long journey to study this apparatus. also

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<v Speaker 3>with the declared aim of dismantling it one day when

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<v Speaker 3>we are victorious in the coming revolution.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so you really opened up kind of the black

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<v Speaker 1>box of the security apparatus and disentangled, I think, the

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<v Speaker 1>ways in which maybe outside scholars kind of gloss over

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<v Speaker 1>or lump different things together. And everything you're saying really

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<v Speaker 1>resonates with me as a Palestinian studying Palestine, like this

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<v Speaker 1>endless suspicion of your own perspective. I'm glad that, as

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<v Speaker 1>you said, there has been a pushback from our region

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<v Speaker 1>and from scholars and activists in other places. But on

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<v Speaker 1>this question of like actually doing the research, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it must have been challenging because this regime wants to obfuscate.

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<v Speaker 1>It wants to hide its doers. So it must have

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<v Speaker 1>been challenging to find sources. How did you find that information?

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<v Speaker 1>What was your methodology for the book?

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<v Speaker 3>That's a very good question. From the outside, Egypt looks

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<v Speaker 3>like a very opaque country for very reasonable causes at

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<v Speaker 3>the end of the day. This is a repressive regime.

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<v Speaker 3>It's allergic to the flow of information and freedom of

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<v Speaker 3>expression in general. Egypt is not a researcher-friendly country at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Once you mention Egypt in academia, people are always reminded

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<v Speaker 3>that with Giulio Regini, the Italian PhD scholar who was

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<v Speaker 3>brutally tortured and murdered in Egypt. We don't have freedom

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<v Speaker 3>of information acts in Egypt that allows us access into

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<v Speaker 3>the archives of this security apparatus and the military and

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<v Speaker 3>the other institutions that belong to that sector. But you

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<v Speaker 3>can always find your way if you decide to become innovative.

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<v Speaker 3>And I will just cite a couple of examples. First

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<v Speaker 3>is that sometimes the best information you can get about

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<v Speaker 3>an opaque military like the Egyptians is through their sponsors.

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<v Speaker 3>The Egyptian military is sponsored by the U.S. In the U.S.,

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<v Speaker 3>even when it's, of course, becoming sissified in so many aspects,

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<v Speaker 3>but still there is a room, Freedom of Information Acts

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<v Speaker 3>and other laws that allows you access. So if you

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<v Speaker 3>go down, after we're done with the recording, just go

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<v Speaker 3>to the U.S. State Department website, check the FOIA section,

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<v Speaker 3>and go back to 2011 and check Hillary Clinton's emails

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<v Speaker 3>that have been declassified. Right. The intelligence reports in these

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<v Speaker 3>emails almost contain the SCAB generals' meetings minutes, where Hillary

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<v Speaker 3>is like saying... General Rouhani said this while the other

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<v Speaker 3>general replied back saying no. And it's as if she's sitting,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, I mean, on the same meeting. But anyways,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they are her proxies and clients, so she

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<v Speaker 3>must get the information right away. So I managed to

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<v Speaker 3>get tons of information through actually declassified U.S. documents. The

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<v Speaker 3>second method, which I also invested some time in, Just

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<v Speaker 3>by the fact that the military are now in the

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<v Speaker 3>front seat, not in the back seat when it comes

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<v Speaker 3>to ruling, and I guess we'll touch more on this later,

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<v Speaker 3>there are tons of mics that are shoved in front

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<v Speaker 3>of the mouths of the different generals and the different

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<v Speaker 3>senior officials, as well as Sisi. And these guys don't

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<v Speaker 3>have any filters. They haven't received the same sophisticated training,

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<v Speaker 3>I guess, where militaries in Western quote unquote, democracies have,

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<v Speaker 3>where they are always in contact with the media. So

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<v Speaker 3>the kind of garbage and so many secretive things that

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<v Speaker 3>you actually can't believe that they are saying, it's unbelievable.

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<v Speaker 3>So just by browsing through their public statements, they are

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<v Speaker 3>spilling the beans left and right. The last thing that

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<v Speaker 3>I will say about the sources, I once heard a

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<v Speaker 3>story in the beginning of the 2000s or late 1990s

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<v Speaker 3>when I was still a student. And to be honest,

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<v Speaker 3>I have no idea if this story was, I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>it did happen or it's just an urban myth. But

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<v Speaker 3>when I heard it, it resonated with me and it

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<v Speaker 3>stayed with me for years to come and inspired me.

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<v Speaker 3>The story goes like as follows. Following the peace treaty

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<v Speaker 3>with Israel, when the Egyptians and the Israelis were sitting,

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<v Speaker 3>discussing joint cooperation projects. So the Israelis would, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>propose some agricultural project, for example, and then they would

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<v Speaker 3>tell the Egyptians, and we think that Mr. Mohammed, blah, blah, blah,

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<v Speaker 3>at this department, at your agricultural ministry, would be the

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<v Speaker 3>most qualified to lead it. And then they would like

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<v Speaker 3>suggest others and they would like keep on proposing names.

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<v Speaker 3>And the Egyptians were shocked to find out that, as

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<v Speaker 3>the story goes, that the Musad had the entire map

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<v Speaker 3>of the Egyptian bureaucracy just by monitoring the obituaries. Because,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, obituaries, maybe the Westerners don't know this, but

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<v Speaker 3>obituaries in the Arab world, You tend to put your

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<v Speaker 3>entire family tree and brag about all the members, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>of the family.

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<v Speaker 2>This engineer and this doctor.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the entire family tree. And each one, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you start posting their CVs and, you know, their achievements.

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<v Speaker 3>So actually, when I heard this, it stuck with me,

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<v Speaker 3>that story. And I applied that same methodology on like

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<v Speaker 3>trying to track down police officers who were involved in

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<v Speaker 3>torture in the years, like in the run up to

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<v Speaker 3>the 2011 revolution. And I used the same technique in

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<v Speaker 3>my research. So I managed to map, for example, the

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<v Speaker 3>new administrative structure of the military intelligence through obituaries, through

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<v Speaker 3>surfing through the obituaries and, you know, digging up names

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<v Speaker 3>and departments and uh and things like that so yeah

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<v Speaker 3>i mean there is always a way to to maneuver i.

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<v Speaker 1>Like how the security apparatus becomes a family business uh

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<v Speaker 1>and the military becomes a family business and i also

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<v Speaker 1>love the fact that we can use the like the

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<v Speaker 1>structures of american empire to study its outposts so um

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<v Speaker 1>yeah that's that's uh Very clever on your part to

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<v Speaker 1>weaponize those sources.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so let's get into the argument of the book.

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<v Speaker 1>Basically, there's this idea of a counter-revolution, I think maybe.

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<v Speaker 2>For the layman.

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<v Speaker 1>Also, I think in some of the theoretical literature, but

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<v Speaker 1>just generally speaking, the way that people think of counter-revolutions,

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<v Speaker 1>we're thinking of a restoration of an old regime. But

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<v Speaker 1>your main argument is that al-Sisi didn't restore Mubarak's Egypt.

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<v Speaker 1>Mubarak was the president prior to the 2011 uprising. But

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<v Speaker 1>he built something fundamentally different. You call it a second republic.

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<v Speaker 1>So what makes this order different? And why does that

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<v Speaker 1>distinction matter for how the world should understand Egypt right now?

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<v Speaker 3>This indeed was the main argument of the book. My

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<v Speaker 3>book was sort of an intervention in political debates that

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<v Speaker 3>have been happening among the Egyptian dissident community. When I

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<v Speaker 3>started this research, I'm talking here about the end of 2017, because,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, my book is, as you said earlier, it's

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<v Speaker 3>my doctoral actually dissertation, which I did here in Berlin.

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<v Speaker 3>So at the time, there were still debates about whether

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<v Speaker 3>this regime is a return to the Mubarak order or

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<v Speaker 3>is it something new? Now, speaking to you in 2026,

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<v Speaker 3>any five-year-old in Egypt would definitely, you know, would know

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<v Speaker 3>that this is something completely different. You don't need to

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<v Speaker 3>do a PhD about. But at the time, there was

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<v Speaker 3>still so much unclarity. And my argument was a victorious

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<v Speaker 3>counter-revolution does not restore the old order simply because the

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<v Speaker 3>old order has failed. And by failure here, Dana, I

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<v Speaker 3>don't mean The kind of failure that you and I

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<v Speaker 3>would think of, that the old regime was not democratic enough,

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<v Speaker 3>the old regime did not distribute wealth in an equal fashion. No,

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<v Speaker 3>in the eyes of the counter-revolutionaries, the old regime failed

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<v Speaker 3>because it failed to repress the revolution. So the kind

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<v Speaker 3>of victorious regimes that come out of such a counter-revolution

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<v Speaker 3>are usually regimes that try to avoid the mistakes of

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<v Speaker 3>the past. So the generals, for example, who led the

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<v Speaker 3>2013 military coup, they regarded Mubarak as too lenient, as

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<v Speaker 3>too weak. They completely detested the way that Hosni Mubarak,

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<v Speaker 3>between quotes, allowed those human rights NGOs to operate in

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<v Speaker 3>the country. They couldn't believe that Hosni Mubarak allowed, again,

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<v Speaker 3>between quotes, people to denounce him in the press, for example.

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<v Speaker 3>So this was not a restoration of the old Mubarak

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<v Speaker 3>authoritarian formula. I mean, make no mistake, I'm not nostalgic

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<v Speaker 3>to the Mubarak days. I don't see it as a

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<v Speaker 3>viable model. But this was not a restoration of that

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<v Speaker 3>old authoritarian formula. Instead, Sisi built a new regime, which,

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, he's the one who coined the phrase

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<v Speaker 3>the new republic or the second republic. And I know

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<v Speaker 3>many people, they like to ridicule, you know, this term

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<v Speaker 3>for very obvious reasons. But it's actually, it's quite accurate.

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<v Speaker 3>He contrasts the first republic, which lasted from 1953 to

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<v Speaker 3>That's one year after the three officers' coup, when they

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<v Speaker 3>abolished the monarchy and declared a republic, till 2013. This

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<v Speaker 3>is all of it. It included three successive regimes, Nasser, Sadat,

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<v Speaker 3>and Mubarak. Sisi lumped them all together in one lot

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<v Speaker 3>as the first republic, and actually I'm arguing that he's right.

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<v Speaker 3>Even when on the surface they had different inclinations, different

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<v Speaker 3>stated goals, different international alliances. But when it comes to

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<v Speaker 3>the core of how the state machine was organized, actually,

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<v Speaker 3>they didn't differ that much. And there was some logic

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<v Speaker 3>in organizing the security apparatus, which completely changed after 2013.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get into that in particular.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the fact that Abdel Nasser and Onward, they pitted

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<v Speaker 1>different parts of the security apparatus against each other.

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<v Speaker 2>Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm not a scholar of Egypt.

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<v Speaker 1>But my understanding is that under Mubarak's regime, they really bolstered,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, general intelligence and things like this. So always

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<v Speaker 1>kind of historically fragmenting different parts of the security apparatus

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<v Speaker 1>so that they are rivals.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course, the dictator can be the arbiter.

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<v Speaker 1>What you're saying is, in the book especially, is that

0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.990
<v Speaker 1>Sisi unifies them for the first time. And why is

0:15:39.070 --> 0:15:42.830
<v Speaker 1>that unification the key to kind of understanding not only

0:15:42.910 --> 0:15:45.570
<v Speaker 1>the type of repression, but the scale? And could it

0:15:45.650 --> 0:15:48.910
<v Speaker 1>have happened without the 2011 revolution?

0:15:49.410 --> 0:15:54.350
<v Speaker 3>There is a vast amount of literature in political science

0:15:55.540 --> 0:16:00.460
<v Speaker 3>that discuss this term. It's called the dominant perceived threat.

0:16:01.780 --> 0:16:06.070
<v Speaker 3>And the arguments usually that revolves around this term is

0:16:06.130 --> 0:16:12.210
<v Speaker 3>that when autocrats reach power, they usually have a dominant

0:16:12.270 --> 0:16:16.750
<v Speaker 3>perceived threat. I mean, don't get me wrong, any good autocrat,

0:16:16.810 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 3>if they want to stay in power for a long time,

0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.200
<v Speaker 3>they have to shield themselves from all sorts of dangers.

0:16:24.210 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 3>But there is always a dominant one. And according to

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 3>that dominant one, they start structuring their security sector or

0:16:34.140 --> 0:16:38.420
<v Speaker 3>security apparatus. So the argument also goes, and I mean,

0:16:38.460 --> 0:16:41.310
<v Speaker 3>I support it, and I think it's correct and accurate,

0:16:42.270 --> 0:16:45.130
<v Speaker 3>that if your dominant perceived threat is that of a

0:16:45.170 --> 0:16:49.870
<v Speaker 3>military coup, then you tend to fragment your apparatus as

0:16:49.930 --> 0:16:58.140
<v Speaker 3>you've just clarified. So you create multiple security institutions. And

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.860
<v Speaker 3>I mean security here in the functional sense, like the

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.780
<v Speaker 3>military would be a security institution. They will all have

0:17:05.300 --> 0:17:11.300
<v Speaker 3>overlapping mandates, hardly any communication or information sharing between them.

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.260
<v Speaker 3>They are always in a state of competition for resources.

0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:21.790
<v Speaker 3>And there isn't much horizontal channels of communication. the only

0:17:21.850 --> 0:17:26.210
<v Speaker 3>channels of communication are vertical. So that, as you also

0:17:26.250 --> 0:17:30.679
<v Speaker 3>clarified earlier, only the ruler would have the bird's eye

0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:35.620
<v Speaker 3>view of what's happening beneath them. At the same time,

0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:42.330
<v Speaker 3>this ruler or this autocrat would definitely take precautions against riots,

0:17:42.550 --> 0:17:48.600
<v Speaker 3>against foreign invasions, against what have you, but that if

0:17:48.710 --> 0:17:52.040
<v Speaker 3>the dominant perceived threat was that of a military coup,

0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:57.020
<v Speaker 3>they will do as we just explained. So during the

0:17:57.060 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 3>First Republic, I mean, how did the First Republic start?

0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:04.200
<v Speaker 3>In case your listeners do not know, in July 1952,

0:18:04.180 --> 0:18:10.070
<v Speaker 3>an eclectic group of nationalist army officers led by Colonel

0:18:10.130 --> 0:18:17.880
<v Speaker 3>Gamal Abdel Nasser, they overthrew the British-backed king, And they

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:22.550
<v Speaker 3>declared a republic a year later. This was a time, Dana,

0:18:22.630 --> 0:18:26.950
<v Speaker 3>where coups were almost a fashionable thing to do, I mean,

0:18:26.990 --> 0:18:31.730
<v Speaker 3>across the global south. These were the years of decolonization.

0:18:31.750 --> 0:18:37.610
<v Speaker 3>At the time, the militaries were still regarded in a favorable, actually,

0:18:37.750 --> 0:18:42.650
<v Speaker 3>kind of light by the nations that were still being formed.

0:18:43.230 --> 0:18:47.950
<v Speaker 3>Many of them came from the anti-colonial fights. The military

0:18:48.030 --> 0:18:54.670
<v Speaker 3>was regarded as a modernizing force professional that can get

0:18:54.710 --> 0:18:57.609
<v Speaker 3>the country to go forward and catch up with the

0:18:57.650 --> 0:19:01.620
<v Speaker 3>West and break dependency ties. There was all of these

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:07.500
<v Speaker 3>kind of nostalgic, romanticized visions of the military. So Egypt

0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:10.400
<v Speaker 3>in that case was not really that unique. It was

0:19:10.460 --> 0:19:13.679
<v Speaker 3>happening across our region and it was happening across the

0:19:13.700 --> 0:19:18.860
<v Speaker 3>global south. So the immediate concern of these conspirators was

0:19:18.940 --> 0:19:23.959
<v Speaker 3>a countercoup. It makes sense. So this was their dominant

0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:30.120
<v Speaker 3>perceived threat. And that's when the military intelligence colonel, Zakaria Mohideen,

0:19:30.980 --> 0:19:34.939
<v Speaker 3>who was dubbed Nasser's barrier in reference to Stalin's barrier,

0:19:35.660 --> 0:19:40.810
<v Speaker 3>he organized this security setup, which continued with us all

0:19:40.850 --> 0:19:46.150
<v Speaker 3>the way up until 2013. whereby he fragmented the security sector.

0:19:46.930 --> 0:19:50.220
<v Speaker 3>So you had the military, you had the interior ministry

0:19:50.380 --> 0:19:53.460
<v Speaker 3>and its secret police, which changed its name, you know,

0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:57.850
<v Speaker 3>several times from al-Mabahf al-Amma to Mabahf Amn al-Dawla to

0:19:58.490 --> 0:20:02.290
<v Speaker 3>then after the revolution, Al-Amn al-Watani. And he created the

0:20:02.310 --> 0:20:07.169
<v Speaker 3>General Intelligence Service in 1954, or our Mukhabarat, as we

0:20:07.210 --> 0:20:10.590
<v Speaker 3>call it. And by the way, it was modeled along

0:20:11.030 --> 0:20:14.010
<v Speaker 3>the structure of the CIA from the start. They were

0:20:14.050 --> 0:20:17.739
<v Speaker 3>very impressed, you know, with the CIA. And actually, they

0:20:17.780 --> 0:20:22.640
<v Speaker 3>enjoyed good relations in order to fight communism. Because, you know,

0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.800
<v Speaker 3>many people actually don't know that initially the three officers,

0:20:26.340 --> 0:20:30.360
<v Speaker 3>they didn't really express any left-leaning sympathies, but they were

0:20:30.420 --> 0:20:32.690
<v Speaker 3>kind of like pushed into it in the following years.

0:20:33.470 --> 0:20:38.689
<v Speaker 3>So this was the security setup. Not in their wildest

0:20:38.770 --> 0:20:42.879
<v Speaker 3>dreams did they ever imagine that a revolution could happen

0:20:42.940 --> 0:20:46.700
<v Speaker 3>in Egypt. I mean here a proper, like popular revolution.

0:20:48.040 --> 0:20:52.320
<v Speaker 3>And this is because our rulers, even when they, you know,

0:20:52.510 --> 0:20:56.230
<v Speaker 3>came in the post-colonial years, they still maintained this colonial

0:20:56.310 --> 0:21:02.010
<v Speaker 3>look whereby they despised their people. They saw the Egyptians

0:21:02.490 --> 0:21:08.540
<v Speaker 3>as human beings without agency. They regarded the Egyptians as

0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:15.830
<v Speaker 3>incapable of self-organizing and that if they are let free

0:21:16.369 --> 0:21:19.630
<v Speaker 3>or let loose, that they will bring the whole country together.

0:21:19.730 --> 0:21:23.469
<v Speaker 3>So there always has to be some patriarchal kind of

0:21:23.790 --> 0:21:30.280
<v Speaker 3>guardianship of the Egyptians. They expected few riots to happen

0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:33.780
<v Speaker 3>here and there, maybe some strikes here and there. but

0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:38.290
<v Speaker 3>not in their wildest nightmares that they thought a revolution

0:21:38.330 --> 0:21:43.270
<v Speaker 3>could happen. Comes 2011, and suddenly they are all shocked.

0:21:44.390 --> 0:21:49.170
<v Speaker 3>And for two and a half years, they were panicking

0:21:49.310 --> 0:21:51.410
<v Speaker 3>about the fact that, you know, the entire regime could

0:21:51.470 --> 0:21:56.310
<v Speaker 3>have collapsed. So out of this trauma and paranoia comes

0:21:56.490 --> 0:22:01.050
<v Speaker 3>out the counter-revolutionary regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. where the

0:22:01.170 --> 0:22:05.520
<v Speaker 3>dominant perceived threat now is that of a popular revolution.

0:22:06.260 --> 0:22:09.639
<v Speaker 3>And this is not, I mean, my own analysis. I mean, again,

0:22:09.720 --> 0:22:15.119
<v Speaker 3>Sisi does not miss a single occasion where he brings

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:16.899
<v Speaker 3>up 2011 and warns of 2011 and talks about, you know,

0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:25.530
<v Speaker 3>the conspiracies to bring down the state. Even, you know,

0:22:25.550 --> 0:22:28.869
<v Speaker 3>a few days ago, before we record this podcast, he

0:22:29.109 --> 0:22:32.429
<v Speaker 3>inaugurated the octagon. If the Americans have the Pentagon, we

0:22:32.450 --> 0:22:37.540
<v Speaker 3>have the octagon. And the octagon is not really to protect,

0:22:37.859 --> 0:22:40.640
<v Speaker 3>you know, the head of the state and the head

0:22:40.680 --> 0:22:44.680
<v Speaker 3>of the army and the senior brass from, you know,

0:22:44.720 --> 0:22:49.100
<v Speaker 3>foreign invasions, God forbid. It's, Sisi said it. He said that,

0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:53.050
<v Speaker 3>you know, we're not going to repeat another 2011. which

0:22:53.109 --> 0:22:56.130
<v Speaker 3>brought the whole country to a standstill. So now we're

0:22:56.190 --> 0:23:02.320
<v Speaker 3>moving the brain of the state somewhere safe. What ensued

0:23:02.410 --> 0:23:06.220
<v Speaker 3>was the unification of the security apparatus for the first

0:23:06.280 --> 0:23:10.960
<v Speaker 3>time since 1952. Don't get me wrong. I mean, they

0:23:11.060 --> 0:23:15.939
<v Speaker 3>are still like three separate institutions. Friction is bound to

0:23:16.000 --> 0:23:18.580
<v Speaker 3>happen between them, and it does happen every now and

0:23:18.619 --> 0:23:22.929
<v Speaker 3>then between them. They might have different views. But they

0:23:22.950 --> 0:23:26.850
<v Speaker 3>are not in competition. They are coordinating. They are sharing information.

0:23:27.430 --> 0:23:31.170
<v Speaker 3>Sometimes they even share the same structures. I mean, there

0:23:31.290 --> 0:23:34.609
<v Speaker 3>are units within the Egyptian army now that officially has

0:23:34.650 --> 0:23:38.490
<v Speaker 3>the police as part of it. Like Unit 888, for example.

0:23:39.230 --> 0:23:42.670
<v Speaker 3>They coordinate and they do joint operations all throughout the

0:23:42.750 --> 0:23:46.970
<v Speaker 3>Sinai counterinsurgency and in the war on terror between codes

0:23:47.210 --> 0:23:52.750
<v Speaker 3>in the Nile Valley. And In so many ways, everyone now,

0:23:52.990 --> 0:23:57.050
<v Speaker 3>they understand that the military is the apex ruler. It's

0:23:57.109 --> 0:24:00.629
<v Speaker 3>on the top. But with it, its younger siblings, the

0:24:00.650 --> 0:24:04.169
<v Speaker 3>Mukhabarat and the Interior Ministry, are in this kind of

0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:08.879
<v Speaker 3>unholy alliance, trying to protect the state from the conspiracies

0:24:09.220 --> 0:24:12.140
<v Speaker 3>of the evil Egyptian people at the end of the day.

0:24:12.980 --> 0:24:15.619
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I have so many questions. I could talk to

0:24:15.720 --> 0:24:16.380
<v Speaker 2>you forever, but.

0:24:16.440 --> 0:24:16.780
<v Speaker 3>Shoot me.

0:24:18.930 --> 0:24:21.109
<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, one of the questions that popped up

0:24:21.150 --> 0:24:25.110
<v Speaker 1>while you were talking about is because of the emergence

0:24:25.210 --> 0:24:30.800
<v Speaker 1>from decolonization and because of the wars with Israel, because

0:24:30.820 --> 0:24:33.119
<v Speaker 1>of all of the history that the military, the Egyptian

0:24:33.160 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 1>military has in the country. I mean, I think it's

0:24:35.660 --> 0:24:38.580
<v Speaker 1>common knowledge and public opinion would back it up to

0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:43.130
<v Speaker 1>some degree that Egyptian public perception has been very pro-military

0:24:43.470 --> 0:24:45.790
<v Speaker 1>and every ruler has come from a military background, as

0:24:45.810 --> 0:24:50.260
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned. And given that the Egyptian people have now

0:24:50.300 --> 0:24:53.280
<v Speaker 1>been named the dominant threat. Do you think that that

0:24:53.340 --> 0:24:56.810
<v Speaker 1>is changing public perception of the military apparatus?

0:24:57.920 --> 0:25:00.990
<v Speaker 3>Let me first just go back to, I mean, even

0:25:01.070 --> 0:25:06.170
<v Speaker 3>before 2011, whether Egyptians regarded the military favorably or not.

0:25:07.390 --> 0:25:10.750
<v Speaker 3>There is definitely, I mean, this factor which exists almost

0:25:10.810 --> 0:25:14.010
<v Speaker 3>in every country, and you're in America, so you understand

0:25:14.050 --> 0:25:17.730
<v Speaker 3>this too. The military is always a core pillar of

0:25:18.130 --> 0:25:23.330
<v Speaker 3>whatever nationalism or whatever nationalist ideology and patriotic ideology that

0:25:23.430 --> 0:25:27.350
<v Speaker 3>exists in any country. And in the case of Egypt,

0:25:27.790 --> 0:25:32.470
<v Speaker 3>the military, especially, you know, its role in the 1973

0:25:32.470 --> 0:25:37.270
<v Speaker 3>war against Israel, which is always depicted in our school

0:25:37.310 --> 0:25:40.669
<v Speaker 3>curriculums and in our movies and, you know, whatever culture

0:25:40.710 --> 0:25:46.900
<v Speaker 3>production as a smashing victory against the Israelis. which is not,

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:50.330
<v Speaker 3>you know, I mean, completely accurate, to be fair. So

0:25:50.850 --> 0:25:55.330
<v Speaker 3>there is definitely this glorification. But here is the thing,

0:25:55.750 --> 0:25:58.590
<v Speaker 3>you know, those who tell me that, you know, Egyptians

0:25:58.630 --> 0:26:01.600
<v Speaker 3>love the military and they regard it favorably, I always

0:26:01.640 --> 0:26:04.640
<v Speaker 3>tell them, you know, when it's conscription time, do you

0:26:04.740 --> 0:26:08.380
<v Speaker 3>find everyone just running to the conscription centers because they

0:26:08.400 --> 0:26:13.140
<v Speaker 3>can't really wait, you know, for, The moment they put

0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:15.979
<v Speaker 3>on the uniform and they get humiliated, you know, in

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:20.370
<v Speaker 3>some military factory or in some desert camp? Or do

0:26:20.470 --> 0:26:25.590
<v Speaker 3>people try to find whatever excuses and fabricate whatever medical,

0:26:26.770 --> 0:26:30.950
<v Speaker 3>you know, reasons in order to buy their way out

0:26:31.590 --> 0:26:35.270
<v Speaker 3>of the military? You know, I honestly, like from my

0:26:35.350 --> 0:26:38.609
<v Speaker 3>humble knowledge and from what I saw all throughout my

0:26:38.650 --> 0:26:42.630
<v Speaker 3>life in Egypt, it's a nightmare. Everyone tries to buy

0:26:42.910 --> 0:26:48.129
<v Speaker 3>their way out from the military. Now, when the military

0:26:48.150 --> 0:26:52.270
<v Speaker 3>intervened in the revolution, I'll go back also a little bit.

0:26:52.890 --> 0:26:57.610
<v Speaker 3>Maybe the military was not running traffic. Maybe the military

0:26:57.670 --> 0:27:02.889
<v Speaker 3>was not doing the actual daily policing before 2011. So

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:07.980
<v Speaker 3>most of the hatred was directed against the police because

0:27:08.020 --> 0:27:11.110
<v Speaker 3>they are the ones that, you know, that you see

0:27:11.170 --> 0:27:14.470
<v Speaker 3>on a daily basis, who interact with you on a

0:27:14.490 --> 0:27:17.969
<v Speaker 3>daily basis. The military, it is true that they were

0:27:18.030 --> 0:27:21.990
<v Speaker 3>in their camps, but their tentacles were all over society.

0:27:22.910 --> 0:27:27.010
<v Speaker 3>They had their own social clubs. As an Egyptian man,

0:27:27.250 --> 0:27:30.250
<v Speaker 3>like until a certain age, I can't leave the country

0:27:30.290 --> 0:27:33.990
<v Speaker 3>except with their permission. They have their own economic and

0:27:34.020 --> 0:27:39.409
<v Speaker 3>business ventures. They have their own special status. So yeah,

0:27:39.530 --> 0:27:43.970
<v Speaker 3>you don't see the brass daily, but they are always

0:27:44.010 --> 0:27:49.690
<v Speaker 3>there somehow, but remotely. After 2011, I mean, they first

0:27:49.770 --> 0:27:54.250
<v Speaker 3>deployed nationally on the streets following the collapse of the police.

0:27:55.170 --> 0:27:59.780
<v Speaker 3>And in my book, I actually do go in details

0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:07.240
<v Speaker 3>to clarify that not everyone welcomed their deployment initially. And

0:28:08.030 --> 0:28:12.030
<v Speaker 3>with their own acknowledgement, I got statements from the military

0:28:12.050 --> 0:28:15.669
<v Speaker 3>that talked about confrontations with the people as soon as

0:28:15.710 --> 0:28:19.510
<v Speaker 3>they were deployed. But at the same time, there wasn't

0:28:19.690 --> 0:28:22.230
<v Speaker 3>any other choice at the time in front of the

0:28:22.270 --> 0:28:26.360
<v Speaker 3>people except trying to win over the conscripts and win

0:28:26.540 --> 0:28:30.679
<v Speaker 3>over the military. Confronting the military at the time after

0:28:31.100 --> 0:28:34.700
<v Speaker 3>a very bloody war of attrition with the police over

0:28:34.800 --> 0:28:40.930
<v Speaker 3>the previous days would have been suicide. So the famous chant,

0:28:41.130 --> 0:28:44.400
<v Speaker 3>or the people and the army are one hand, that

0:28:44.460 --> 0:28:47.120
<v Speaker 3>came out in that context of us trying to win

0:28:47.220 --> 0:28:51.760
<v Speaker 3>over the conscripts. An appeal. Exactly. So I know that

0:28:51.820 --> 0:28:56.640
<v Speaker 3>this slogan then later got, you know, co-opted by the

0:28:56.660 --> 0:29:00.480
<v Speaker 3>military and by the counter-revolution to mean something else. But initially,

0:29:00.520 --> 0:29:05.140
<v Speaker 3>that's what it meant. So did the military keep its

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:10.170
<v Speaker 3>clout throughout the revolution? I belong to the Egyptian Revolutionary Socialists,

0:29:10.430 --> 0:29:15.030
<v Speaker 3>which is a revolutionary leftist organization in the country. We

0:29:15.110 --> 0:29:18.750
<v Speaker 3>were the only ones to issue an anti-military statement on

0:29:18.790 --> 0:29:21.850
<v Speaker 3>the 1st of February during the 18 days. No other

0:29:21.930 --> 0:29:26.750
<v Speaker 3>political organization issued any anti-military statements. And the 1st of

0:29:26.790 --> 0:29:29.250
<v Speaker 3>February here was kind of like prophetic even, like this

0:29:29.290 --> 0:29:31.930
<v Speaker 3>was one day before the Battle of the Camel that

0:29:31.990 --> 0:29:35.790
<v Speaker 3>was enabled partially also by the military at the time.

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:40.360
<v Speaker 3>And initially, we were an isolated minority. Most of the

0:29:40.380 --> 0:29:44.920
<v Speaker 3>public were against us. But then, as the revolution progressed

0:29:45.340 --> 0:29:49.320
<v Speaker 3>and people started to get disillusioned about the role of SCAF,

0:29:50.100 --> 0:29:54.060
<v Speaker 3>the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces, they started to remember, oh,

0:29:54.160 --> 0:29:57.920
<v Speaker 3>it was the Egyptian RS who were warning us from

0:29:57.980 --> 0:30:03.980
<v Speaker 3>the early on about this. And several confrontations exploded when

0:30:04.020 --> 0:30:07.420
<v Speaker 3>it comes to SCAF in the streets, whether it's the

0:30:07.440 --> 0:30:11.960
<v Speaker 3>Mohamed Mahmoud uprising in November or the Occupy cabinet clashes

0:30:12.760 --> 0:30:17.050
<v Speaker 3>in December 2011. So the thing of the military, like

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:20.330
<v Speaker 3>it goes back and forth, back and forth, up and down.

0:30:20.570 --> 0:30:25.740
<v Speaker 3>I cannot say that it's something constant with 2013. There

0:30:25.820 --> 0:30:30.650
<v Speaker 3>were sections of Egyptian society who supported the massacres and

0:30:30.690 --> 0:30:35.550
<v Speaker 3>supported the army's intervention. But also there were victims of

0:30:35.610 --> 0:30:39.610
<v Speaker 3>that intervention. And I think as Sisi lost clout as

0:30:39.690 --> 0:30:43.660
<v Speaker 3>he proceeded, because he's now running the country and governing

0:30:43.720 --> 0:30:48.460
<v Speaker 3>it solely by coercion, no consent, people can see in

0:30:48.540 --> 0:30:52.260
<v Speaker 3>front of them how the military turned into a monster

0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:56.610
<v Speaker 3>that's basically taking over everything in the country. Does that

0:30:56.790 --> 0:31:01.590
<v Speaker 3>mean when another revolution breaks out that everyone will be

0:31:01.690 --> 0:31:05.590
<v Speaker 3>anti-military from the start? I don't think so. If there

0:31:05.770 --> 0:31:11.620
<v Speaker 3>isn't a clear alternative that's telling the people that another

0:31:11.680 --> 0:31:15.920
<v Speaker 3>solution is possible other than the military, I think they

0:31:15.940 --> 0:31:18.300
<v Speaker 3>will play the same game of like getting rid of

0:31:18.340 --> 0:31:22.440
<v Speaker 3>the regime and retreating for a few steps, but keeping

0:31:22.480 --> 0:31:23.300
<v Speaker 3>things as they are.

0:31:24.000 --> 0:31:27.460
<v Speaker 1>And they are, you know, unfortunately, in some ways in

0:31:27.500 --> 0:31:30.520
<v Speaker 1>a strengthened position, as you said, because they learned the

0:31:30.560 --> 0:31:34.980
<v Speaker 1>lesson of the possibility of popular mobilization. I mean, they've

0:31:35.020 --> 0:31:37.570
<v Speaker 1>moved the capital, there's the octagon, like everything you've mentioned.

0:31:38.180 --> 0:31:40.330
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's so apt the way that you

0:31:40.370 --> 0:31:44.770
<v Speaker 1>described the regime acting like a colonial occupier more than

0:31:44.790 --> 0:31:46.970
<v Speaker 1>a national government, because it does, as you mentioned, have

0:31:47.010 --> 0:31:51.580
<v Speaker 1>this view of its own people as underdeveloped and unworthy

0:31:51.960 --> 0:31:52.600
<v Speaker 1>of having.

0:31:52.420 --> 0:31:53.880
<v Speaker 2>Their own political agency.

0:32:04.500 --> 0:32:09.700
<v Speaker 1>So for Egyptians today in Egypt, what does daily life

0:32:09.820 --> 0:32:14.479
<v Speaker 1>look like under this, you know, unfortunately, more aggressive system?

0:32:15.710 --> 0:32:20.610
<v Speaker 3>Unfortunately, it's a very miserable situation. When Sisi rose to

0:32:20.630 --> 0:32:25.210
<v Speaker 3>power and took office officially in 2014 as a president,

0:32:25.990 --> 0:32:33.490
<v Speaker 3>Egypt's foreign debt was roughly $ 41 billion. Today, it's over

0:32:33.490 --> 0:32:43.110
<v Speaker 3>$ 163 billion. In this year's government budget, we're talking about 63%

0:32:43.110 --> 0:32:47.190
<v Speaker 3>at least of the government budget will go for the

0:32:47.210 --> 0:32:54.060
<v Speaker 3>debt service. 63%. Let me repeat that again. 63% of

0:32:54.100 --> 0:32:57.220
<v Speaker 3>the government budget is not going to go for education,

0:32:57.280 --> 0:32:58.880
<v Speaker 3>it's not going to go for health, it's not going

0:32:58.900 --> 0:33:02.910
<v Speaker 3>to go for whatever, it's going just to pay the

0:33:03.070 --> 0:33:07.510
<v Speaker 3>interest on the debt. So this means also the following.

0:33:08.130 --> 0:33:13.170
<v Speaker 3>It means that there is austerity measures on steroids to

0:33:13.210 --> 0:33:16.380
<v Speaker 3>the extent that people are sharing their memories of the

0:33:16.410 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 3>2000s and 1990s as the good old days. And again,

0:33:20.940 --> 0:33:23.880
<v Speaker 3>these were the days of the height of our neoliberal transition,

0:33:24.140 --> 0:33:27.140
<v Speaker 3>which is part of why we had the revolution in

0:33:27.160 --> 0:33:31.100
<v Speaker 3>the first place. But the situation now, the economic situation

0:33:31.230 --> 0:33:35.620
<v Speaker 3>is that bad that even the austerity of the 1990s

0:33:35.720 --> 0:33:42.120
<v Speaker 3>and the 2000s, they sound like heaven today. Secondly, when

0:33:42.160 --> 0:33:48.160
<v Speaker 3>it comes to political repression, the political repression also, compared

0:33:48.240 --> 0:33:51.400
<v Speaker 3>to Sisi, Mubarak is a human rights activist. is a

0:33:51.420 --> 0:33:54.560
<v Speaker 3>human rights defender, you know, compared to what we're seeing today.

0:33:55.140 --> 0:33:59.860
<v Speaker 3>The unification of the repressive apparatus in Egypt only led

0:33:59.900 --> 0:34:06.650
<v Speaker 3>to heightened lethal and carceral violence. The regime, and this

0:34:07.190 --> 0:34:10.430
<v Speaker 3>might sound Orwellian, but the regime was boosting in the

0:34:10.469 --> 0:34:13.609
<v Speaker 3>public media that we're building the biggest prison on earth,

0:34:14.110 --> 0:34:18.770
<v Speaker 3>and they are listing this as part of their achievements. So,

0:34:20.260 --> 0:34:23.910
<v Speaker 3>How does life look like today? You have three or

0:34:24.030 --> 0:34:30.430
<v Speaker 3>four generations of Egyptians from, let's say, 2013 up until

0:34:30.469 --> 0:34:35.360
<v Speaker 3>today who graduated from university without ever taking part in

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:39.120
<v Speaker 3>a protest, without ever taking part in a political debate,

0:34:39.980 --> 0:34:44.339
<v Speaker 3>without ever drafting a statement or distributing a leaflet, without

0:34:44.460 --> 0:34:48.009
<v Speaker 3>ever taking part in a student union election, without ever

0:34:48.070 --> 0:34:53.430
<v Speaker 3>taking part in a parliamentary electoral campaign in their neighborhoods.

0:34:54.730 --> 0:35:00.969
<v Speaker 3>Sisi has desertified the political scene in Egypt. He dismantled

0:35:01.180 --> 0:35:07.420
<v Speaker 3>most of the political organizations in the country. Even apolitical charities,

0:35:08.080 --> 0:35:12.239
<v Speaker 3>any entity that's independent from the state got taken over

0:35:12.480 --> 0:35:17.760
<v Speaker 3>or dismantled by the state apparatus. So you have really

0:35:17.900 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 3>a draconian kind of regime that we've never witnessed in

0:35:21.219 --> 0:35:25.220
<v Speaker 3>our modern history, even under Nasser. I mean, Nasser usually

0:35:25.300 --> 0:35:27.670
<v Speaker 3>is always referred to as the reference when it comes

0:35:27.690 --> 0:35:30.890
<v Speaker 3>to military dictatorships and what have you, but it's not true. Yeah,

0:35:30.910 --> 0:35:33.509
<v Speaker 3>I mean, he was a dictator, of course, but he

0:35:33.610 --> 0:35:37.509
<v Speaker 3>feared the military. He feared a coup. So he had

0:35:37.570 --> 0:35:42.660
<v Speaker 3>to create a vast array of political institutions in order

0:35:42.719 --> 0:35:48.430
<v Speaker 3>to counter the military's power. And these political institutions were

0:35:48.610 --> 0:35:51.890
<v Speaker 3>a vehicle for Egyptians, though with limits, of course, but

0:35:51.989 --> 0:35:58.129
<v Speaker 3>to mobilize, to conduct, to discuss, to organize. And there

0:35:58.150 --> 0:36:01.790
<v Speaker 3>was some space, some kind of political education, which is

0:36:01.890 --> 0:36:06.180
<v Speaker 3>now non-existent. As I'm talking to you now, you know,

0:36:06.219 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 3>the Egyptian national team has returned to Egypt, our football

0:36:10.300 --> 0:36:13.339
<v Speaker 3>national team. And they have done like really a great

0:36:13.400 --> 0:36:15.859
<v Speaker 3>achievement at the World Cup, which, you know, it never

0:36:15.900 --> 0:36:21.000
<v Speaker 3>happened in our history. The government announced that they are

0:36:21.880 --> 0:36:27.750
<v Speaker 3>preparing like a mass popular welcome for the national team.

0:36:28.570 --> 0:36:32.569
<v Speaker 3>El Alamein, not in Cairo. So they arrived at the

0:36:32.610 --> 0:36:35.930
<v Speaker 3>Libyan border, at our border with Libya, like all the

0:36:35.950 --> 0:36:39.780
<v Speaker 3>way in the desert to be received by the state officials.

0:36:39.880 --> 0:36:43.410
<v Speaker 3>And later they will meet CEC. And, you know, like

0:36:43.430 --> 0:36:45.990
<v Speaker 3>a few hundred people like showed up in the desert

0:36:46.070 --> 0:36:51.350
<v Speaker 3>in that scorching, you know, sun heat to wait for them.

0:36:52.310 --> 0:36:57.220
<v Speaker 3>Because this regime is so crowd phobic, so people phobic

0:36:58.180 --> 0:37:00.779
<v Speaker 3>that they wouldn't even dream that, you know, they would

0:37:00.820 --> 0:37:03.560
<v Speaker 3>have this welcome in Cairo where the real crowds are.

0:37:04.560 --> 0:37:08.680
<v Speaker 3>It is to that extent. Our football league, for example,

0:37:09.020 --> 0:37:12.180
<v Speaker 3>which has always been famous and popular, you know, in

0:37:12.200 --> 0:37:16.430
<v Speaker 3>the Arab world and let alone Egypt, is being played

0:37:17.150 --> 0:37:21.590
<v Speaker 3>without fans. It stayed for years and the stadiums were empty.

0:37:21.790 --> 0:37:24.610
<v Speaker 3>And then they now allowed only 5,000 people to show up.

0:37:25.150 --> 0:37:28.200
<v Speaker 3>The capacity of the Cairo stadium, for example, is 120,000.

0:37:28.190 --> 0:37:30.509
<v Speaker 3>And I used to attend matches where it was full.

0:37:34.050 --> 0:37:36.790
<v Speaker 3>Now they only allow like, you know, 5,000 fans for

0:37:36.830 --> 0:37:41.029
<v Speaker 3>each one because they are so crowd phobic. This is

0:37:41.090 --> 0:37:44.549
<v Speaker 3>the reality we're living under. But I'm also arguing at

0:37:44.570 --> 0:37:46.110
<v Speaker 3>the end of the book that this is not a

0:37:46.150 --> 0:37:47.390
<v Speaker 3>sustainable model.

0:37:47.870 --> 0:37:49.930
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, an incarcerated population.

0:37:50.489 --> 0:37:52.280
<v Speaker 1>But as you said, at the end of the book,

0:37:52.950 --> 0:37:56.340
<v Speaker 1>you're saying there are cracks in the regime's internal unity.

0:37:56.640 --> 0:37:59.900
<v Speaker 2>And I think you also mentioned the parliamentary crisis.

0:38:00.719 --> 0:38:05.470
<v Speaker 1>So what do you think are the seeds of another 2011.

0:38:05.469 --> 0:38:07.900
<v Speaker 2>What would resistance look like this time? What would it

0:38:07.960 --> 0:38:09.020
<v Speaker 2>need to look like this time?

0:38:09.420 --> 0:38:12.960
<v Speaker 1>Because, I mean, you and I both agree that coercion

0:38:13.080 --> 0:38:16.080
<v Speaker 1>alone cannot sustain these types of regimes.

0:38:16.580 --> 0:38:20.799
<v Speaker 3>You were saying earlier that they have learned their lessons, which,

0:38:21.510 --> 0:38:24.870
<v Speaker 3>you know, on the surface, this might be true. But

0:38:24.989 --> 0:38:28.070
<v Speaker 3>I would argue that they have probably learned the wrong

0:38:28.150 --> 0:38:35.630
<v Speaker 3>lessons because there are counter-revolutions across history. That, yeah, was violent,

0:38:35.690 --> 0:38:39.610
<v Speaker 3>was repressive, you know, and there was bloodshed. But at

0:38:39.650 --> 0:38:44.799
<v Speaker 3>the same time, these counter-revolutions also, since they were farsighted,

0:38:45.110 --> 0:38:49.739
<v Speaker 3>they tried to address some of the problems that led

0:38:49.880 --> 0:38:53.160
<v Speaker 3>to the outbreak of the revolution in the first place.

0:38:53.940 --> 0:38:56.580
<v Speaker 3>Not because they are Democrats, but they just want to defuse,

0:38:56.900 --> 0:39:00.969
<v Speaker 3>you know, any potential problems. Now let's look at Egypt

0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:04.160
<v Speaker 3>and actually the Arab Spring in general, not just Egypt.

0:39:04.719 --> 0:39:09.239
<v Speaker 3>There are tons of reasons why the Egyptian and the

0:39:09.300 --> 0:39:15.560
<v Speaker 3>Arab revolutions broke out in 2011. But I can, in

0:39:15.600 --> 0:39:18.620
<v Speaker 3>a reductionist way, you know, I can simplify them into

0:39:18.680 --> 0:39:24.450
<v Speaker 3>two main problems. One is the issue of political repression

0:39:24.510 --> 0:39:28.630
<v Speaker 3>and police brutality. The other one is the social question

0:39:29.150 --> 0:39:34.380
<v Speaker 3>or Dawn. distribution of wealth these were the two main

0:39:34.660 --> 0:39:41.230
<v Speaker 3>structural problems that provided the objective conditions to have an

0:39:41.290 --> 0:39:44.370
<v Speaker 3>uprising in Egypt and actually the Arab world I mean

0:39:44.410 --> 0:39:47.890
<v Speaker 3>I can generalize here again knowing that each country had

0:39:47.950 --> 0:39:51.440
<v Speaker 3>its own specificities Syria had its own, you know, I mean,

0:39:51.520 --> 0:39:54.719
<v Speaker 3>conditions and problems. Tunisia had its own, blah, blah, blah. But,

0:39:55.100 --> 0:39:58.049
<v Speaker 3>you know, these two were the common denominator and the

0:39:58.090 --> 0:40:03.350
<v Speaker 3>main motor force for these revolutions. Now, let's look at Egypt.

0:40:03.910 --> 0:40:07.290
<v Speaker 3>The counter-revolution, yes, I mean, it killed the revolution. It

0:40:07.350 --> 0:40:12.190
<v Speaker 3>repressed the revolutionaries. But did they provide answers to these

0:40:12.230 --> 0:40:16.670
<v Speaker 3>two problems? No. Any child in Egypt could answer this.

0:40:16.710 --> 0:40:19.390
<v Speaker 3>You don't need a PhD scholar to tell you that

0:40:19.410 --> 0:40:24.830
<v Speaker 3>actually political repression is even much, much, much worse today. Secondly,

0:40:24.870 --> 0:40:27.839
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to the distribution of wealth, it's even

0:40:27.890 --> 0:40:33.180
<v Speaker 3>as much, the economic condition is, it's unbelievable at this point.

0:40:33.739 --> 0:40:37.900
<v Speaker 3>So as long as these two structural problems continue with us,

0:40:38.680 --> 0:40:43.980
<v Speaker 3>there will always be the objective conditions for another revolt.

0:40:44.760 --> 0:40:49.360
<v Speaker 3>What's missing here is the subjective conditions, which means it's

0:40:49.440 --> 0:40:52.360
<v Speaker 3>Hussam and Dana and X and Y and Z and

0:40:52.380 --> 0:40:56.620
<v Speaker 3>Muhammad and, you know, and Michael. And are we organized?

0:40:57.420 --> 0:41:02.000
<v Speaker 3>Are we trying to put out new ideas? Are we

0:41:02.640 --> 0:41:06.419
<v Speaker 3>trying to mobilize even under repression, you know, in these

0:41:06.460 --> 0:41:10.859
<v Speaker 3>campaigns here and there? That's what's missing. The repression was

0:41:10.980 --> 0:41:15.910
<v Speaker 3>extremely effective in terms of dismantling the different political organizations

0:41:16.050 --> 0:41:21.549
<v Speaker 3>and the independent unions in the country. But part of

0:41:21.830 --> 0:41:25.500
<v Speaker 3>also why the repression was effective was the fact that

0:41:25.760 --> 0:41:32.140
<v Speaker 3>there was full blank check backing from the regional and

0:41:32.200 --> 0:41:36.370
<v Speaker 3>the global allies of the regime. the UAE and Saudi

0:41:36.430 --> 0:41:40.510
<v Speaker 3>Arabia in specific, in the region. And globally, you had

0:41:40.750 --> 0:41:44.090
<v Speaker 3>the US and more importantly, the EU. I would actually

0:41:44.110 --> 0:41:47.299
<v Speaker 3>be arguing that it's the EU that's much more complicit

0:41:48.000 --> 0:41:52.759
<v Speaker 3>in enabling the Sisi regime more than America, which goes,

0:41:52.800 --> 0:41:56.160
<v Speaker 3>you know, against the historical trajectory of that regime. So

0:41:56.200 --> 0:42:01.270
<v Speaker 3>the regime was confident. The regime... could ask, you know,

0:42:01.750 --> 0:42:04.549
<v Speaker 3>the Gulf allies and the West, as long as he

0:42:04.570 --> 0:42:07.410
<v Speaker 3>was fighting the revolution, as long as he was dismantling

0:42:07.530 --> 0:42:12.610
<v Speaker 3>the Islamists, and as long as he's killing this boogeyman

0:42:12.850 --> 0:42:17.790
<v Speaker 3>called the January 2011 revolution. Until Sisi woke up by

0:42:17.790 --> 0:42:23.029
<v Speaker 3>2021 with COVID and the war in Ukraine, to find

0:42:23.170 --> 0:42:27.010
<v Speaker 3>out that, first, our debt has spiraled out of control,

0:42:27.590 --> 0:42:31.180
<v Speaker 3>and that the Gulf... were not really that keen on

0:42:31.280 --> 0:42:38.090
<v Speaker 3>keeping these bailouts to continue. There were even some leaked

0:42:38.130 --> 0:42:42.930
<v Speaker 3>reports that Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE complaining that

0:42:43.010 --> 0:42:46.450
<v Speaker 3>Sisi thinks he's some ATM. I don't know if it's

0:42:46.489 --> 0:42:51.270
<v Speaker 3>true or not, but it signaled a different mood. And

0:42:51.390 --> 0:42:55.410
<v Speaker 3>there was even a famous statement by Sisi, which then

0:42:55.510 --> 0:42:58.730
<v Speaker 3>was taken down from most of the news websites at

0:42:58.750 --> 0:43:02.160
<v Speaker 3>the time. But I had screenshotted it and I listened

0:43:02.219 --> 0:43:07.319
<v Speaker 3>to that speech where he was complaining, saying something along

0:43:07.360 --> 0:43:10.819
<v Speaker 3>the line of some of our Arab brothers, they think

0:43:10.860 --> 0:43:15.209
<v Speaker 3>that Egypt is incapable of progress and blah, blah, blah.

0:43:15.310 --> 0:43:17.610
<v Speaker 3>And he was like lamenting, you know what I mean,

0:43:17.630 --> 0:43:21.330
<v Speaker 3>the situation. And that's when, you know, the regime started

0:43:21.430 --> 0:43:27.170
<v Speaker 3>to act in a very unconfident way, released some political prisoners,

0:43:27.950 --> 0:43:30.770
<v Speaker 3>called for a national dialogue, which, I mean, it never

0:43:30.810 --> 0:43:34.190
<v Speaker 3>really materialized into anything important. But it was just a

0:43:34.270 --> 0:43:37.250
<v Speaker 3>signal that they were scared. They were scared because the

0:43:37.270 --> 0:43:43.290
<v Speaker 3>economic situation was bad. And because that if any form

0:43:43.730 --> 0:43:49.489
<v Speaker 3>of revolts take place, whether it's local or whether it's

0:43:49.590 --> 0:43:54.330
<v Speaker 3>on the national level, they don't have that civil society

0:43:54.430 --> 0:43:57.700
<v Speaker 3>in the Gramscian sense that can act as a buffer

0:43:57.840 --> 0:44:01.540
<v Speaker 3>to protect them. Hosni Mubarak was an autocrat, it's true,

0:44:02.060 --> 0:44:06.719
<v Speaker 3>but Hosni Mubarak was presiding over a very vibrant civil society.

0:44:07.820 --> 0:44:10.880
<v Speaker 3>And it's that civil society that actually saved the state

0:44:10.940 --> 0:44:15.989
<v Speaker 3>from a full-fledged revolution in January 2011. There was the

0:44:16.030 --> 0:44:19.509
<v Speaker 3>Muslim Brotherhood that you can try to negotiate with in

0:44:19.550 --> 0:44:23.569
<v Speaker 3>exchange for, you know, suspending Tahrir and we'll give you,

0:44:23.590 --> 0:44:26.069
<v Speaker 3>you know, a share of the cake. There used to

0:44:26.110 --> 0:44:30.190
<v Speaker 3>be like left-wing political parties that you can try to

0:44:30.250 --> 0:44:34.110
<v Speaker 3>negotiate with and promise, you know, some parliamentary seats in

0:44:34.170 --> 0:44:39.469
<v Speaker 3>exchange for diffusing industrial militancy. There was this, there was that,

0:44:39.510 --> 0:44:42.870
<v Speaker 3>there was this, there was that. This is what enabled

0:44:42.910 --> 0:44:47.590
<v Speaker 3>Hosni Mubarak to rule Egypt for three decades. But it

0:44:47.670 --> 0:44:52.610
<v Speaker 3>is exactly that authoritarian formula that Sisi and the generals

0:44:52.690 --> 0:44:57.390
<v Speaker 3>regarded as the main reason for 2011. So what we

0:44:57.430 --> 0:45:01.640
<v Speaker 3>have now is the state presiding over society without any buffers.

0:45:02.800 --> 0:45:06.280
<v Speaker 3>It's the military that's micromanaging the society on a daily basis.

0:45:06.820 --> 0:45:10.220
<v Speaker 3>It's the police that's micromanaging society on a daily basis.

0:45:10.760 --> 0:45:13.259
<v Speaker 3>It's the Mukhabarat who are also doing the same. And

0:45:13.300 --> 0:45:17.720
<v Speaker 3>there is division of labor between them. They will remain

0:45:17.840 --> 0:45:20.919
<v Speaker 3>united as long as things are going really well. But

0:45:21.219 --> 0:45:25.000
<v Speaker 3>once you hit the wall, once a crisis erupts, whether

0:45:25.040 --> 0:45:27.760
<v Speaker 3>you are a political organization, whether you are the state,

0:45:28.020 --> 0:45:31.780
<v Speaker 3>whether you are a group of friends, that's when people

0:45:32.080 --> 0:45:38.040
<v Speaker 3>start looking at one another and exchange blames or propose

0:45:38.300 --> 0:45:42.060
<v Speaker 3>very diverse ideas. Some will think we should go left,

0:45:42.320 --> 0:45:45.279
<v Speaker 3>others will say we should go right. And that's when

0:45:45.320 --> 0:45:49.439
<v Speaker 3>cracks start to happen. I'm not implying that, you know,

0:45:49.560 --> 0:45:53.070
<v Speaker 3>the divisions are now deep, but you can start seeing

0:45:53.610 --> 0:45:58.149
<v Speaker 3>few cracks here and there. And in the background, you

0:45:58.190 --> 0:46:03.350
<v Speaker 3>started to see also an incremental rise in industrial actions

0:46:04.250 --> 0:46:08.420
<v Speaker 3>over the past few years. It's not like the 2006

0:46:08.420 --> 0:46:12.860
<v Speaker 3>till 2011 strike wave, which, you know, once erupted in Mahalla,

0:46:12.880 --> 0:46:15.719
<v Speaker 3>it spread by the domino effect all over, you know,

0:46:15.739 --> 0:46:19.339
<v Speaker 3>the country. It's very incremental, has its own problems, but

0:46:19.460 --> 0:46:24.620
<v Speaker 3>it's rising. And it's that social movement, which I always

0:46:24.680 --> 0:46:26.480
<v Speaker 3>bet on for the future.

0:46:27.340 --> 0:46:31.050
<v Speaker 1>A lot to think about. And a lot of historical

0:46:31.110 --> 0:46:33.130
<v Speaker 1>events come to mind. So as you were talking, I

0:46:33.130 --> 0:46:35.549
<v Speaker 1>was thinking about the bread and the fodder. But like

0:46:35.590 --> 0:46:38.790
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, there's not some sort of buffer to absorb

0:46:38.810 --> 0:46:42.390
<v Speaker 1>in today's Egypt. Another thing I was thinking about as

0:46:42.430 --> 0:46:46.330
<v Speaker 1>we were talking the entire time was this sci-fi collection,

0:46:46.410 --> 0:46:50.690
<v Speaker 1>Egypt 100, about what Egypt looks like 100 years after 2011.

0:46:50.690 --> 0:46:52.989
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to put that in the show notes if

0:46:53.050 --> 0:46:56.049
<v Speaker 1>people are interested, because it imagines.

0:46:57.230 --> 0:47:00.149
<v Speaker 2>Moving the capital and doing all these things. What will

0:47:00.190 --> 0:47:02.270
<v Speaker 2>that mean for Egyptians in 100 years?

0:47:02.910 --> 0:47:06.109
<v Speaker 1>It's a little dystopian, but You are leaving me more

0:47:06.150 --> 0:47:08.370
<v Speaker 1>hopeful than sci-fi leaves me.

0:47:09.350 --> 0:47:12.250
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for coming on and I really

0:47:12.270 --> 0:47:12.890
<v Speaker 2>appreciate your time.

0:47:13.770 --> 0:47:15.989
<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Diana. It's always a pleasure to speak to you.

0:47:16.750 --> 0:47:17.350
<v Speaker 3>Take care, everybody.

0:47:21.690 --> 0:47:24.170
<v Speaker 2>It Could Happen Here is a production of Cool Zone Media.

0:47:24.350 --> 0:47:27.310
<v Speaker 1>For more podcasts from Cool Zone Media, visit our website,

0:47:27.550 --> 0:47:31.960
<v Speaker 1>coolzonemedia.com or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

0:47:32.320 --> 0:47:35.500
<v Speaker 1>or wherever you listen to podcasts. can now find sources

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<v Speaker 1>for It Could Happen Here listed directly in episode descriptions.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening.