1
00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:04,280
Speaker 1: There is a general feeling among the public that it's

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: time for a change.

3
00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:09,280
Speaker 2: Candidate who speaks out against a kind of old political

4
00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 2: power and still pitch yourself as new.

5
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:14,600
Speaker 3: Around the world, there could be some serious changes.

6
00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,639
Speaker 4: Twenty twenty three was a year of conflict and confusion.

7
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:23,120
Speaker 4: Russia and Ukraine's war pounded on in a seemingly endless stalemate,

8
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,280
Speaker 4: and fighting in the Middle East has rapidly escalated since

9
00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:31,360
Speaker 4: Hamasa's October seventh attacks on Israel and Israel's subsequent invasion

10
00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:35,880
Speaker 4: of Gaza. But we finally made it to twenty twenty four,

11
00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:38,640
Speaker 4: and this year, voters across the world will have a

12
00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,240
Speaker 4: chance to share how they are feeling at the polls.

13
00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,199
Speaker 4: There are elections in over sixty countries that account for

14
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:49,480
Speaker 4: over forty percent of the world population. These elections mark

15
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 4: the biggest test democracy has faced in generations. Whatever the outcomes,

16
00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,040
Speaker 4: the world won't look the same on the other side

17
00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 4: of them. On the show, we'll hear from Bloomberg reporters

18
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,959
Speaker 4: across the globe who are covering these elections on what

19
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,319
Speaker 4: to watch for and what these elections are likely to

20
00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,600
Speaker 4: mean for all of us. I'm your host, Sarah Holder

21
00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:23,040
Speaker 4: and This is the big take from Bloomberg News. Voters

22
00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,679
Speaker 4: in these elections across the globe are of course seeking

23
00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,920
Speaker 4: candidates that can address local pocketbook issues like inflation and jobs,

24
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:32,640
Speaker 4: but whether they know it or not, their votes are

25
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,360
Speaker 4: also going to shape big global conflicts.

26
00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:40,800
Speaker 3: If you look across the globe, basically there's conflict everywhere.

27
00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,119
Speaker 4: Daniel Flatley is a national security reporter for Bloomberg.

28
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 3: All of those conflicts have some dimension that could be

29
00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 3: changed by the outcome of an election.

30
00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 4: Voters who go to the polls this year will also

31
00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,640
Speaker 4: be helping shape something national security experts call the global

32
00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,840
Speaker 4: economic order. Daniel explained what that means.

33
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,440
Speaker 3: Basically, you're talking about the quote unquote Western nations like

34
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,160
Speaker 3: the US, in Europe and a lot of the poorer

35
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,679
Speaker 3: countries around the world who are trying to basically get

36
00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,840
Speaker 3: a share of this piece of the pie that is

37
00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:22,120
Speaker 3: the global economy. And within that economic order, you have rivalries, right,

38
00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 3: So you have the US and Europe basically, and then

39
00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:31,800
Speaker 3: you have China. And China has risen faster than anyone

40
00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:36,359
Speaker 3: really expected and has become a real economic rival not

41
00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,919
Speaker 3: just to the US but to Europe and a lot

42
00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:40,480
Speaker 3: of European nations as well.

43
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 4: There are a lot of moving parts here, so let's

44
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 4: start with the elections in these three countries, Russia, Venezuela

45
00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,520
Speaker 4: and India. Together they're home to more than one and

46
00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,360
Speaker 4: a half billion people, almost half the number of voters

47
00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,080
Speaker 4: participating in this year's slate of elections. The influence these

48
00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:02,160
Speaker 4: leaders have on regional and global concerns is first. Let's

49
00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,680
Speaker 4: talk about Russia, where the election outcome is almost certain.

50
00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,280
Speaker 4: A twenty twenty one rule change paved the way for

51
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,960
Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin to pursue up to two more six year

52
00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,800
Speaker 4: terms as president, and this year Putin faces no meaningful

53
00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,520
Speaker 4: opposition for the role he first helmed in March two

54
00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,720
Speaker 4: thousand and has essentially held ever since. And next in Venezuela,

55
00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,440
Speaker 4: our colleague Pati Laya tells us what to expect.

56
00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,799
Speaker 5: With slim chances of winning an open election, Malua is

57
00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,800
Speaker 5: pulling out almost every lever at his disposal to rally

58
00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 5: domestic support and extend his rule. Still longtime Venesswanan observers

59
00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 5: finding highly unlikely that Maluro would allow any opponent to

60
00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,960
Speaker 5: defeat him next year, his main rival, opposition primary winner

61
00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:48,280
Speaker 5: Maria Gurna Machau is still banned from running for public office.

62
00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 4: And then in India, Narendra Modi is all but assured

63
00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,120
Speaker 4: a third term as Prime minister. He's seen as a

64
00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,160
Speaker 4: crucial political partner to the US and other allies who

65
00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:58,360
Speaker 4: have tended to turn a blind eye to concerns over

66
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,920
Speaker 4: political assassinations on form or in soil, discrimination against minority groups,

67
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,440
Speaker 4: and the seeming lack of fairness in the upcoming national elections.

68
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 4: Here's Daniel again for more on this relationship.

69
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 3: The first state dinner that Biden hosted was Prime Minister

70
00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 3: Narendra Modi here in the US, and that was a

71
00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:21,400
Speaker 3: signal basically that this partnership is important and needs to

72
00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,360
Speaker 3: be preserved at all costs, because if you look at

73
00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,240
Speaker 3: the world the way that national security officials here in

74
00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,719
Speaker 3: the US look at the world, basically what they're seeing

75
00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:38,080
Speaker 3: is threats from multiple vectors China, Russia, the Middle East, Iran.

76
00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,440
Speaker 3: But they have an important partner in India.

77
00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:46,080
Speaker 4: While elections in Russia, India and Venezuela seem predetermined, the

78
00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,960
Speaker 4: outcome of many upcoming elections across the globe remain unknown.

79
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,840
Speaker 4: We'll get into which other nations go to the polls

80
00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,520
Speaker 4: and what their voters are deciding.

81
00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:59,920
Speaker 3: After the break, the US is no longer the unipolar

82
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,080
Speaker 3: power in the world. There's a rising China. There's other

83
00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,000
Speaker 3: countries that are vying for a piece of the pie,

84
00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:10,240
Speaker 3: and as that sort of shakes itself out, who is

85
00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 3: running these countries is going to be enormously consequential.

86
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,719
Speaker 4: In some places, the status quo looks primed to change.

87
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,760
Speaker 4: Our colleague Alex Wickham in the UK lays out the

88
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:20,360
Speaker 4: state of play.

89
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,200
Speaker 1: There years of political turmoil with the Conservatives in power

90
00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,599
Speaker 1: since Brexit, five prime ministers in seven years. In particularly

91
00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,599
Speaker 1: over the last few years with Boris Johnson, Liz Trust

92
00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,359
Speaker 1: and Rissie Sunak, we have perhaps the biggest prospect of

93
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:40,560
Speaker 1: a changing government in fourteen years. The opposition Labor Party

94
00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,440
Speaker 1: is now consistently ahead in opinion polls by around twenty points,

95
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,599
Speaker 1: so Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, is well on course

96
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,000
Speaker 1: to become the next prime minister.

97
00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,200
Speaker 4: And in Mexico, Maya Averbach reports.

98
00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,760
Speaker 2: Mexico will likely have its first female president at the

99
00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:02,040
Speaker 2: end of this year. Runder the race by a huge

100
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,239
Speaker 2: margin is Claudia schein Bam, who comes from the current

101
00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:10,279
Speaker 2: ruling party. Her competitor, Social Galvis has called attention to

102
00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,360
Speaker 2: the current president's record on violence, a really high homicide rate,

103
00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:19,880
Speaker 2: the lack of green energy policies, the importance for reforms.

104
00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,279
Speaker 2: We see a kind of mimicry of the discourse between

105
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:28,560
Speaker 2: these two leading women trying to pitch themselves as candidates

106
00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,159
Speaker 2: who will really represent the voice of the people in

107
00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:31,839
Speaker 2: this race.

108
00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,360
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, in West Africa, new leaders in Ghana and Senegal

109
00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,480
Speaker 4: will face their own unique set of challenges. Yinke Ibukun

110
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:41,919
Speaker 4: lays out the stakes in Ghana.

111
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,479
Speaker 6: Dana's next leader has their work cut out for them.

112
00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 6: The country is in the throes of a dead crisis

113
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,039
Speaker 6: and the central bank is struggling to tame inflation under

114
00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,440
Speaker 6: an IMF program. The victor will have little physical space

115
00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,039
Speaker 6: to respond to citizens' immediate concerns.

116
00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,400
Speaker 4: By contrast, Senegal is one of africa'st longest growing economies.

117
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,719
Speaker 4: It's slated to begin oil and gas production this year

118
00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,400
Speaker 4: and preparing for an election that could undermine its stability.

119
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:13,000
Speaker 4: Even in places with smaller economies like these, elections can

120
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 4: have big consequences. They can set off a kind of

121
00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,920
Speaker 4: butterfly effect where electoral results in one country will influence

122
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 4: policy in others. Additional oil production in Mexico or Senegal

123
00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:27,160
Speaker 4: can influence US energy policy.

124
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,120
Speaker 3: So you have energy producing states that are kind of

125
00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,480
Speaker 3: fighting for relevance at this point. With a lot of

126
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,880
Speaker 3: these countries that have economic resources and have and are

127
00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,440
Speaker 3: kind of up and coming, so to speak, they want

128
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,680
Speaker 3: to really show that they can hold sway on the

129
00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:45,640
Speaker 3: world stage, that they can influence events.

130
00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,640
Speaker 4: Where elections are free and fair. The leaders voters choose

131
00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,280
Speaker 4: matter a lot, not only for local economies but for

132
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 4: the global economy as investors look to try and make

133
00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,520
Speaker 4: sense of a changing global economic order and versus like

134
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,560
Speaker 4: the COVID pandemic, Climate change and regional conflicts inject chaos

135
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:09,000
Speaker 4: into an already complex world. Dan says, pay attention to

136
00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,640
Speaker 4: the way this election season shakes out.

137
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:16,360
Speaker 3: So whether it comes to housing policy, industrial policy, whether

138
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,520
Speaker 3: to bail out certain companies or not bail out other companies,

139
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 3: how long the recovery takes, how long it lasts, or

140
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:26,600
Speaker 3: even look at the COVID nineteen pandemic, all of those things.

141
00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,920
Speaker 3: Those decisions are ultimately made by politicians. How we get

142
00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:37,520
Speaker 3: from here to there is going to involve a lot

143
00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:41,000
Speaker 3: of day to day decisions that are going to be

144
00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,680
Speaker 3: shaped by philosophies of the candidates that are.

145
00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:49,360
Speaker 4: Running, and we'll keep following these elections as they unfold,

146
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,120
Speaker 4: both inside the US and outside. Later this week, voters

147
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,400
Speaker 4: in Taiwan will decide on their president, and our Big

148
00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,840
Speaker 4: Take Asia team will have stories in the build up

149
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,520
Speaker 4: and aftermath of the results. This weekend, the US presidential

150
00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,640
Speaker 4: primaries will begin in Iowa, where our new sister show,

151
00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,079
Speaker 4: The Big Take, DC, will be on the ground as

152
00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,000
Speaker 4: former President Donald Trump will try and fend off rivals

153
00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,160
Speaker 4: for the chance to unseat President Joe Biden this November.

154
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,040
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to The Big Take from Bloomberg News.

155
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,960
Speaker 4: I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by Alex Sugiura.

156
00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,920
Speaker 4: It was fact checked by Molly Nugent. It was mixed

157
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 4: by Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is our executive producer and

158
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:31,559
Speaker 4: head of podcasts. Thanks for tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow.