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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets as me Joey P joe P Zapia and

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Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead the

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Speaker 1: Championship Sunday, and we've got not one, but two specials

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Speaker 1: for you this weekend. First, let's start with the AFC special.

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Speaker 1: Here we're talking about the Broncos. We're talking about the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Erics and I are on the edge of our

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Speaker 1: seat hoping our pass could get back to the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: And of course, if there's somebody who likes to throw

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Speaker 1: a little cold water on the Patriots, it's our good

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Speaker 1: friend the Welsh who was back. Yay, we missed the Welsh.

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Speaker 1: She was moving. He took some days off to unpack,

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Speaker 1: and now we're gonna unpack the AFC Championship game. Here

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Speaker 1: they've got their best bets for the game. We've also

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Speaker 1: got some touchdown call, same game parlay, all that stuff. So, Welsh,

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Speaker 1: we haven't seen you in a while. We miss you,

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Speaker 1: So whyn't you kick us off here with your first

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Speaker 1: bet for the AFC Championship Game?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 3: Were you throwing a little bit of shade like I

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Speaker 3: don't think the Patriots are a good team.

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Speaker 4: Well, my first.

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Speaker 3: Bet is on the Patriots. Yay, we're not gonna go

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Speaker 3: full game, We're gonna go first half. Patriots first half

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Speaker 3: on the spread minus two and a half.

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Speaker 4: It is floating around.

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Speaker 3: A lot of places might want to try to get

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Speaker 3: you at three and a half. You gotta get two

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Speaker 3: and a half. The Patriots fourteen wins against the spread

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Speaker 3: in the first half this season, the number one first

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Speaker 3: half team ats. They are currently two and zero in

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Speaker 3: the first half during the playoffs, and they have been

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Speaker 3: a juggernaut. They have been a monster.

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Speaker 4: Obviously.

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Speaker 3: I'd also throw out that you're looking at the Broncos

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Speaker 3: and what is their offense going to be able to

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Speaker 3: do versus them.

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Speaker 4: I really like the position that the Patriots are in.

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Speaker 3: I really like for them to be able to take

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Speaker 3: this in the first half, and I'm looking for them

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Speaker 3: to be up by a field goal. So minus two

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Speaker 3: and a half in the first half. One of my

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Speaker 3: favorite bets. Patriots the best at it.

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Speaker 1: And they're gonna do it again. Speaking of the first

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Speaker 1: half of the AFC Championship game, you can join us

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Speaker 1: here live on Betting Pros to watch Seth Wollcock and

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Speaker 1: Scott Bogman sweat out the first half of the AFC

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Speaker 1: Championship game two forty five Eastern time right here on

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Speaker 1: the channel. Subscribe to the channel, ring the bell to

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Speaker 1: lickos ding so you get the notification when we are live.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna take you through their favorite bets for the game,

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Speaker 1: the first half bets they're gonna sweat it out, plus

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Speaker 1: Welsh's bet right here and you can sweat along with

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Speaker 1: them and make some bets right here on the channel.

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Speaker 1: So make sure you join us live for AFC Championship

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Speaker 1: first half with Scott Bogman and Seth Wolcock. Shout out

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Speaker 1: to Seth taking over so I can watch my Patriots

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Speaker 1: play because I don't have to coach football because the

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Speaker 1: snowstorm looks like it'shutting down the entire area. As Andrew

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Speaker 1: said to hopefully I just have power. That's the only hope.

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Speaker 1: So Andrews, your phone is charged, you'll be good to go. Well,

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Speaker 1: and if I had no Internet, that's gonna be tricky.

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Speaker 2: What you have five g baby?

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Speaker 1: Come on, I do have the five data. But you

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Speaker 1: know that's true. Yeah, that's true. Oh yeah, that's true.

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Speaker 1: I always use that anyway.

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Speaker 2: Right, you might be cold, you might be cold watching

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Speaker 2: the game, but you'll be watching.

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Speaker 1: It might be freezing watching the game, but.

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Speaker 4: Drake Mayil keep you warm.

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Speaker 1: You'll be That's right, Drake, Drake may May. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about Andrew Erckson. What's your first bet here

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Speaker 1: of the five for AFC Championship Sunday.

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Speaker 2: I am taking the Broncos with the points Broncos plus

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Speaker 2: five and a half. I think that the lines have

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Speaker 2: shifted too far in favor of the Patriots because of

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Speaker 2: the bow Knicks injury. You know, they asked odds makers

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Speaker 2: before the start of the season how many points all

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Speaker 2: the quarterbacks were worth against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Boon Nicks was worth four points.

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Speaker 2: But we've seen how this line has shifted. It was

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Speaker 2: originally going to be Broncos minus one and a half

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Speaker 2: hosting the Patriots with Bonnicks as the starting quarterback, and

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Speaker 2: it's shifted over six points. And I think that's too

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Speaker 2: much for bo Nicks too. We talked about a little

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Speaker 2: bit before we start recording. I mean, not the perfect quarterback.

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Speaker 2: I think his biggest impact this year has been on

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Speaker 2: the clutch factor and picking up first downs with his legs,

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Speaker 2: but he hasn't been a great quarterback in terms of

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Speaker 2: helping the Broncos cover spreads. The Bronco has been one

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Speaker 2: of the more overrated teams this year in terms of

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Speaker 2: covering when they've been a favorite this season, but as

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Speaker 2: an underdog, they've covered four straight as an underdog.

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Speaker 1: They're actually one.

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Speaker 2: Of the few undefeated teams against the spread as an

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Speaker 2: underdog season four oho to one against the spread, four

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Speaker 2: and one straight up as an underdog this season. So

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Speaker 2: Denver showed out when they've been counted out by the

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Speaker 2: odds makers, and I think again they're gonna do that

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Speaker 2: in this particular matchup because I think for the New

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Speaker 2: England Patriots heading on, this is the first time the

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Speaker 2: Patrios have faced an elite defense on the road this season.

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Speaker 2: We saw the last two weeks elite defense, elite defense.

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Speaker 2: Their offense has scored less than twenty points per game

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Speaker 2: in both of those contests. So I think that the

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Speaker 2: way that we've seen this offensive line play Will Campbell

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Speaker 2: has been terrible over the last two weeks, and now

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Speaker 2: he's facing the number one defense in sacks generated and

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Speaker 2: sacked percentage. Like that concerns me. Drick May has six

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Speaker 2: fumbles over the last two weeks. He had nine in

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Speaker 2: the entire regular season. So if one of these balls

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Speaker 2: doesn't bounce in favor of the Patriots, you get short fields,

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Speaker 2: tough place to play in Denver, hostile environment. So I

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Speaker 2: do ultimately think the Patriots win because bo Nicks they're

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Speaker 2: gonna miss him in the fourth quarter in the second half.

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Speaker 2: But I think this is gonna be tight, more of

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Speaker 2: a field goal type of game. So give me the

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Speaker 2: Broncos with the points. Again, Patriots to win, but I

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Speaker 2: think the Broncos cover.

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Speaker 1: I agree. I think these two defenses will, you know,

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Speaker 1: keep it tight here. I do like I'm a little

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Speaker 1: annoyed at all the Jarrett's Didham coverage that's coming out

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Speaker 1: here recently too, where it's all this, look at what

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Speaker 1: you did against you know, the forty nine ers in

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Speaker 1: this game, and look at it, like stop, okay, just

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Speaker 1: stop with that. If he was that good, he would

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Speaker 1: have gotten a job already somewhere else. He's a backup

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Speaker 1: quarterback for a reason. Look how much he's being paid

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Speaker 1: as a backup. Well, that's because they had a young

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Speaker 1: quarterback and they could afford to pay a higher backup

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Speaker 1: because they had a young quarterback. So stidamam. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: we'll make a couple of plays. I don't doubt that.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, let's just pump the brakes

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Speaker 1: a little bit now, speaking of those Drake May turnovers

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Speaker 1: and Drake May's season. Here, Welsh, your next pick has

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Speaker 1: to do with Drake May. Let's talk about it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've actually got a Jared Sidham one. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: do it a little bit as well, but I'm going

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Speaker 3: to just go back to it.

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Speaker 4: This is so weird. You guys are like you like.

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Speaker 3: Oh Patriots fans, and you both are just like well

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Speaker 3: Jared studio him and the Broncos and covering like I'm

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Speaker 3: the Patriots guy here. A lot of my bets are

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Speaker 3: on the Patriots because I think they're the superior team.

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Speaker 3: I feel like you guys are giving a lot more

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Speaker 3: credit to Jared Sidham than need be the Patriots. Guess what,

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Speaker 3: The defensive matchups are not going to get any easier

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Speaker 3: when you get to the super Bowl if they make it,

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Speaker 3: and they're a pretty good offense as well, and Drake

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Speaker 3: May pretty good quarterbacks, So yes, It's a great defensive matchup,

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Speaker 3: Broncos the best out there, but that's also going to

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Speaker 3: put them in a situation where Drake May is going

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Speaker 3: to have to sling the ball. I don't think they're

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Speaker 3: going to be as successful in the running game. It

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Speaker 3: might lead to Drake May even running a little bit more,

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Speaker 3: But I like the passing yards, So I'm going to

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Speaker 3: go with the passing yards over at two twenty three

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Speaker 3: point five. That's the over on Drake May's passing yards.

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Speaker 3: He has hit this in seven of his last ten games,

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Speaker 3: and as a matter of fact, he's only gone under

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Speaker 3: this passing line five times the entire season. Broncos, they've

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Speaker 3: given this up to quarterbacks in three of the last

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Speaker 3: five games played. But I thought this was interesting. The

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Speaker 3: two that didn't go over the passing marker, we're against

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Speaker 3: Trey Lance and Chris Oladokin. So I think that as

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Speaker 3: good as that Broncos defense is, the way that the

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Speaker 3: Patriots are going to do this and make this happened

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Speaker 3: is in the passing game. So Drake May over on

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Speaker 3: the passing yards that is bet number two for apparently my.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, we're just giving the Broncos respect. Also you

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Speaker 1: have to keep in mind, Andrew and I have a

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Speaker 1: lot of bad memories of going into Denver and being disappointed.

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Speaker 1: So it's a little bit of, you know, psychological issues

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Speaker 1: that we're trying to work through here. Today.

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Speaker 3: You're doing the reverse thing where you're in the playoffs

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Speaker 3: and fantasy and you're down and then you text the

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Speaker 3: congratulations over like, I know this game.

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Speaker 1: You missed it though on out of Bounds were recapsled

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Speaker 1: last week here in the Betting Pros Live. I was

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Speaker 1: able to successfully jinx both the Bills and the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 1: I had my Denver Broncos headband and then I had

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Speaker 1: my Bills hat, and then going back and forth, and

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Speaker 1: eventually I did get Josh Allen eliminated for the playoffs

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Speaker 1: and bo Nicks eliminated for the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: So it just why do you have all the other

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Speaker 4: teams stuff?

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Speaker 1: Because because every year three different flag football teams for

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Speaker 1: NFL Flag, So we get gear, and I got cool

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Speaker 1: stuff laying around the house all the time. You know,

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Speaker 1: when I when I coached the Broncos, I get Bronco stuff.

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Speaker 1: When I coached you know, the Patriots, I had Patriots

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Speaker 1: stuff and I already had Patriots stuff.

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Speaker 3: It's all forty nine ers here, except I have I

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Speaker 3: have a hat from a unaired commercial that Joe Piezap

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Speaker 3: and I did that was potentially going to air on

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Speaker 3: like remember that, And it was a it was a

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Speaker 3: Chargers hat, and I wore it around and every time

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Speaker 3: people are like, oh, you charge a fan, and I'm

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Speaker 3: like ew no, and I'm like, oh, I forgot I'm

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Speaker 3: wearing the Chargers hat that I was purchased.

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Speaker 2: Well, Joe is slowly becoming that Homer Simpson meme where

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Speaker 2: he comes out of the bush with just a different

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Speaker 2: hat of a team.

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Speaker 1: I'm always a Patriots fan, but I got NFL gear

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Speaker 1: because this is what I do. I coach football. I

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Speaker 1: do NFL shows nothing wrong with that. Hey, my Rams

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Speaker 1: team from last winter, undefeated Rams team. I got the

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Speaker 1: big pennant hanging up right here in the office. You

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Speaker 1: know why undefeated champions lift forever.

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Speaker 4: That's why that might happen in the playoff too. Well,

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Speaker 4: so you have.

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Speaker 1: To check out the NFC show for that. Ericson, You've

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Speaker 1: got some bets on, Evan Ingram. Let's take your favorite

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Speaker 1: one here with the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Evan Ingram over nineteen and

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Speaker 2: a half receiving yards. So what I'm expecting to see

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Speaker 2: from Jared's Didham this week is more throws over the

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Speaker 2: middle of the field. That's one of the main differences

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Speaker 2: between him and bo Nix, the other being he also

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Speaker 2: takes way more sacks than Mowaennicks does, so that also

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Speaker 2: plays into why like the under in this game. But

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Speaker 2: I think Evan Ingram is kind of the X factor

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Speaker 2: for the Broncos passing attack. You look at the receivers

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Speaker 2: for Denver Courtland Sun probably gonna match up with Christian Gonzales. Okay,

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Speaker 2: that kind of takes him potentially out of the equation.

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Speaker 2: The next two guys, Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant, well,

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Speaker 2: they both got hurt last week, both limited in practice

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday. We'll see with them how they shake out

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Speaker 2: in terms of the offensive game plan. But that leaves

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Speaker 2: Marvin Mims, who I have been fooled once too many times,

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Speaker 2: trying to chase his points in production. So I can

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Speaker 2: also guarantee Evan Ingram breakout game because Marvin Mims broke

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Speaker 2: out last week. Because Sean Baiten, the usage never carries

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Speaker 2: over from week to week. You look at the matchup,

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Speaker 2: he lines up in the slot primarily again, so I

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Speaker 2: like that in terms of Jared said him taking over

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Speaker 2: as the quarterback, and I think the Patriots have kind

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Speaker 2: of been just mediocre against tight ends this year eleventh

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Speaker 2: in yards allowed to tight ends this year fifty seven

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Speaker 2: point one. Evan Ingram, a hot before last week, had

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Speaker 2: gone over twenty receiving yards in three straight games. Buffalo

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Speaker 2: Bills are one of the best evinces against tight ends,

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Speaker 2: So I'm not going to hold last week's dud against

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Speaker 2: Van Ingram even when those other receivers went down. I

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Speaker 2: think with Jared's didn't look I don't expect you can't

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Speaker 2: copy and paste all of his numbers, but he's thrown

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Speaker 2: for at least two hundred nineteen yards in his four

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Speaker 2: starts in the NFL. Like, I don't think he's gonna

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Speaker 2: go out there and throw for one hundred yards. So

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Speaker 2: if he's going to bring one of his receivers along

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Speaker 2: for the ride, I'm kind of pinpointing and circling Evan

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Speaker 2: Ingram as that player. He's four games with forty yards

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Speaker 2: or more seventy nine receiving arts is his season high.

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Speaker 1: Four tight ends.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots have faces either have gone for at least

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Speaker 2: sixty two yards. They've allowed two one hundred yard games

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Speaker 2: two tight ends. So I think that because this is

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Speaker 2: such a low number, I want to ladder bet Evan

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Speaker 2: Ingram this week because you can get Evan Ingram to

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Speaker 2: get fifty receiving yards at close to five to one odds,

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Speaker 2: and I just don't think that's a very high bar

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Speaker 2: for him to pass based on what we could potentially

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Speaker 2: see with the quarterback switch. Sobay I'm seeing is if

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Speaker 2: I'm right about Stidham like honing in on Ingram as

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Speaker 2: the matchup to attack against this Patriots defense, then I

266
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Speaker 2: think you can make a big profit off an Evan

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Speaker 2: Ingram big type of game, especially with those other receivers

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Speaker 2: maybe not as involved in the game plan as they're

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Speaker 2: putting it together for Sunday's game.

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Speaker 1: Now, your third pick also has to do with Evan

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Speaker 1: Ingram because you think he actually has the upside. If

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Speaker 1: you're right about all this to score and that return

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Speaker 1: is five to one.

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Speaker 2: Well, you can't run on the Patriots defense. So I'm

275
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Speaker 2: not expecting any of these Denver Bronco running backs to

276
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Speaker 2: find the end zone in any capacity. Again, Courtland Sutton

277
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Speaker 2: has the tough matchup Gonzalez. Troy Franklin has been the

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Speaker 2: other red zone guy, but he's dealing with the hamstring injury,

279
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Speaker 2: so I think that leaves Evan Ingram is the next

280
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Speaker 2: man up in terms of usage in the red zone.

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Speaker 2: So I love his odds again, five to one, the

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Speaker 2: Patriots second highest passing touchdown rate allowed the season, because

283
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Speaker 2: as I mentioned before, can't run on this team and

284
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Speaker 2: the dever Broncos have been really inconsistent running game.

285
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Speaker 1: We'll see if JK.

286
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Speaker 2: Dobbins comes back. I think that he's a long shot

287
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Speaker 2: to play. Harvey's been too inconsistent, especially near the goal line.

288
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Evan Ingram a lot in this game,

289
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Speaker 2: and if I'm right about him, I'm going to be

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Speaker 2: a very very happy man.

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Speaker 1: Now, Welsh, I don't want to leave you out of

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Speaker 1: the Evan Ingram conversation because you've got Ingram bet as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just when you thought you were done with Evan Ingram,

294
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Speaker 3: it's the even Ingram Show. Because I'm in the same

295
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Speaker 3: space with Erickson here. I think Stidham is going to

296
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Speaker 3: be target targeting Evan Ingram, and there might be I

297
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,560
Speaker 3: don't know if I'm quite as comfortable in the ladder

298
00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,679
Speaker 3: betting territory, but you know what it's floating out there

299
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Speaker 3: for us. But where I'm going because I'm going on receptions.

300
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Speaker 3: That reception marker is at like two and a half

301
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Speaker 3: right now. He hit this in five of his last

302
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Speaker 3: six regular season games, tight ends have been on average

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Speaker 3: getting just under six by five point seven catches and

304
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Speaker 3: over fifty yards receiving against the Patriots on the ear

305
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Speaker 3: So kind of as mentioned like, you know, that is

306
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Speaker 3: an open space, especially for Evan Ingram in that tight

307
00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,199
Speaker 3: end market be able to find some success. But also

308
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Speaker 3: you know Stidham is going to be looking for safety

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Speaker 3: net options. He's going to be facing a ton of blitz.

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Speaker 3: He's going to be probably on his heels. The outside

311
00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,200
Speaker 3: is going to be a tough spot for him to throw,

312
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Speaker 3: and I think Evan Ingram is going to be that

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Speaker 3: safety net option for him. This is a classic backup

314
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Speaker 3: quarterback tight end where they can't ear the ball out

315
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Speaker 3: and they're going to look for that safety net and

316
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Speaker 3: that is where I think Evan Ingram is going to shine.

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Speaker 3: I don't mind the receiving yards, but I legit think

318
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Speaker 3: it's going to be Stidham one look and then it

319
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Speaker 3: is going to be dump off to Evan Ingram and

320
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Speaker 3: Evan Ingram is going to have to play some yak.

321
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Speaker 4: So I actually the yards are cool.

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Speaker 3: I think I might lad other receptions and play four

323
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Speaker 3: to five in this one. This one is you know,

324
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Speaker 3: anywhere from like one twenty to one to fifteen on

325
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Speaker 3: three receptions. I might play that up, and like Erickson,

326
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Speaker 3: if he hits, we're going to be happy boys. If not,

327
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Speaker 3: we're going to be swimming in sledge and it'll be

328
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Speaker 3: a bad Evan Ingram and will you know, curse his

329
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Speaker 3: name for the rest of the purvity.

330
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Speaker 2: But it's going to be this seen from the Joker

331
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Speaker 2: or the bat or Batman or the Dark Knight. When

332
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Speaker 2: the Joker lights up all that money on fire, like

333
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,080
Speaker 2: that's going to be betting on Evan Ingram to have

334
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Speaker 2: a big game and him.

335
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Speaker 1: Glad you land on the right Batman film, Eventually.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of Batman. There's a lot of references

337
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Speaker 4: to the Darkmans.

338
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Speaker 2: Not even Batman's not even in that title of that movie.

339
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Speaker 4: He's well, he's the Dark Knight.

340
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Speaker 1: He is the Dark Knight.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that is who's the best Batman? By the way,

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Speaker 4: who is the best Batman?

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Speaker 1: I'd still, says Christian Bale. All round, I have a

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Speaker 1: I have a saucepot for Keaton, but in terms of

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Speaker 1: like the Batman part of it, I still I think

346
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Speaker 1: want to be pretty good too. To be honest, I

347
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Speaker 1: think he does a pretty good job on that. It's

348
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Speaker 1: a very different version.

349
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Speaker 3: It's more hipsters want Keaton to be the guy and

350
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Speaker 3: want him to be the only guy. But Bail was

351
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Speaker 3: the best, Pattinson was underrated.

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Speaker 1: Kilmer forgotten Batman too. Just I think Valkimer wouldn't have

353
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Speaker 1: been better if it was more of a serious film.

354
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Speaker 1: It was so goofy that they didn't say the so

355
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Speaker 1: let's go to the next bet Yeah, let's go to

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Speaker 1: the next one. By the way, before you want to

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Speaker 1: keep conversations like this going, but instead about betting, go

358
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 1: to our discord bettingpros dot com slash chat. It's free,

359
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,000
Speaker 1: it's fun. You get expert picks from guys like Matt

360
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 1: Perrault on their plus. If it's NBA, if it's NHL,

361
00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,920
Speaker 1: if it's football, we got everything going on. Their college

362
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 1: hoops is around the quarter too, with the big tournament

363
00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 1: looming in March, so make sure you go over and

364
00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 1: join our discord again bettingpros dot Com slash Chat. Next up,

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Speaker 1: Welsh Jared Stidham. You promised it and now deliver.

366
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Speaker 3: All right, and look at this, we're playing an under

367
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:35,520
Speaker 3: because it's Jared Stidham. Jared'stidham rushing yards opened up at

368
00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 3: fourteen and a half and we are playing the under.

369
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Speaker 3: Now him facing you know, a lot of guys in

370
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,480
Speaker 3: his face, a lot of bullets and stuff could potentially

371
00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:48,560
Speaker 3: have him moving through. But I wouldn't look back at Sidham. Stidham,

372
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Speaker 3: over his career, has thirty seven total carries for a

373
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Speaker 3: total of one hundred and one yards. That's like two

374
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Speaker 3: point seven yard, just under three yards per carry. Over

375
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Speaker 3: the last three years, win given an opportunity because he's

376
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 3: had minimal opportunities, he has seen fourteen carries. Those have

377
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 3: equated to twelve yards. Patriots, they're averaging giving up about

378
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 3: three carries to quarterbacks total. I don't think Sidham is

379
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 3: going to be in a spy now to be fair,

380
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,240
Speaker 3: you know, if all the guys are taken away. Maybe

381
00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 3: he's able to bring it up. I just don't think

382
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 3: that's going to be the case. I think Stidham, they're

383
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,360
Speaker 3: going to keep ingram in low. They're going to keep

384
00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 3: guys like r. J.

385
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 4: Harvey.

386
00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 3: He's going to take a bunch of sacks, and I

387
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 3: don't think the opportunity for him to be flying is

388
00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 3: going to happen. It hasn't happened in his career. I

389
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 3: see why the lines open up there, but I absolutely

390
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 3: love smashing the under on fourteen point five rushing yards

391
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 3: for Sidham in this game.

392
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 1: All right, Andrew for your fourth pick. Between the Patriots

393
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,000
Speaker 1: defense and Jared Sidham playing quarterback. What kind of day

394
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,160
Speaker 1: does that portend for Courtland Sutton?

395
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 2: Probably an inefficient day for the Broncos number one wide receiver.

396
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 2: So I'm going to take the under on his receptions

397
00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,360
Speaker 2: at four and a half. He's been under this number

398
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 2: in three straight games. You are considering the tough matchup

399
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 2: against Christian Zalez, you have a new quarterback under center,

400
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,160
Speaker 2: So I think this one just hey, the process of

401
00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 2: the process, process, kate the under here. Someton's a good player,

402
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 2: but he hasn't really played up to that level over

403
00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. So I'm taking the under here.

404
00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,680
Speaker 1: Okay, the under for Courtland Sutton. So finally get under

405
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,919
Speaker 1: from the undertaker. Love that all right, Welsh, give me

406
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Speaker 1: your last pick here and then we'll get to our

407
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,560
Speaker 1: favorite picks, some touchdown calls. The SGP actually got a

408
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:22,239
Speaker 1: lot of stuff left in the show. But let's get

409
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Speaker 1: to the last pick for you guys. First. Let's start

410
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:25,159
Speaker 1: with Hunter Henry for you.

411
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Speaker 3: Yeah, speaking of any time touchdown, Hunter Henry, anytime touchdown

412
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Speaker 3: is where I'm going to go. Broncos have given up

413
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,280
Speaker 3: touchdowns to tight ends in three of their last six games.

414
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 3: Henry four touchdowns over his last five games. And though

415
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,119
Speaker 3: we've seen guys like you know, Booty or even like

416
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 3: a to Mario Douglas, see like increased red zone targets

417
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 3: as mentioned a bunch in here, the corner matchups. I

418
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:46,959
Speaker 3: guess we've talked about it on the other side, but

419
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,399
Speaker 3: you know you're going to have the corner matchups locking

420
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 3: down a lot of these guys. It May is going

421
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Speaker 3: to be looking at Hunter Henry. So I really like

422
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 3: this spot for Hunter Henry. I think, unlike you guys,

423
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 3: that Drake May is going to have a successful game,

424
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Speaker 3: and Hunter Henry will be one of the reasons behind it.

425
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Speaker 3: So anytime touchdown for Hunter Henry were then Patriots.

426
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Speaker 1: For the record, I think May will have a successful

427
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 1: game because he will make some plays. The Denver Broncos

428
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,160
Speaker 1: off defense is very good, and they are playing at home.

429
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 1: It's a distinct advantage. It's a tough building. I know

430
00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 1: they've been road warriors all year, and they've been terrific

431
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,440
Speaker 1: at home, and they've won all these Excuse me, they've

432
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Speaker 1: terrific on the road, winning all these games in a

433
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Speaker 1: row on the road. But I still got to give

434
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 1: some credit to how good the Denver Broncos team is defensively.

435
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 1: And Sean Payton's a good football coach. He's gonna have

436
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 1: them ready to play. And sometimes these weird things happen, right,

437
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 1: you know, guys rally around a backup quarterback. That's what

438
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,359
Speaker 1: happened all those years ago to the Rams, right, Kurt Warner.

439
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:36,560
Speaker 1: But it's all late in the game.

440
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 4: Nick Foles. Nick Foles pointed out, like, hey, don't let

441
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 4: the show, don't sleep.

442
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 1: Quarter show your mouth, you know, to Tom Brady. Right,

443
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:49,120
Speaker 1: that's right, that's right, Thank you. Andrew Actually, I don't

444
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 1: know if I'm happy about that. Now you're sad about it?

445
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 4: What do you do? You guys even hear yourself rocket.

446
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:55,199
Speaker 4: You're going to covers.

447
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 1: That's all I care about. They're going to cover. Okay, yeah,

448
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,800
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about your final here, Andrew? What

449
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 1: do you have here? Last, but not least, R J.

450
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 2: Harvey under forty three and a half rushing yards slammed

451
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 2: the under on woody marks last week.

452
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 1: He didn't even come cold.

453
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 2: He didn't even twenty yards despite having double digit carries.

454
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 2: Because you can't run on the Patriots defense. We got

455
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 2: Milton Williams, you got Tonga, you got Robert Splaine. Just

456
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 2: you can't run on the Patriot Steve. It's no running

457
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 2: back has more than sixty rushing yards through the first

458
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 2: eleven games played when they were all healthy. Through two

459
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,439
Speaker 2: playoff games, none of the running backs have exceeded twenty

460
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 2: five more rushing yards. So I think this is just

461
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 2: rinse and repeat JK.

462
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 4: Dobbins.

463
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 2: Maybe he comes back, maybe he doesn't.

464
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:32,920
Speaker 1: But R J.

465
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 2: Harvey has been under forty three and a half rushing

466
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 2: yards in his last three games, and his rushing yards

467
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 2: have actually decreased in six straight games. So trust the process.

468
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 2: Bet against running backs facing the Patriots run defense.

469
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,000
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. All right, let's talk about

501
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 1: it here, Welsh, what is your favorite bet for AFC

502
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 1: Championship Game.

503
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 3: Of the five bets that I've laid out for you.

504
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:22,199
Speaker 3: I absolutely love New England to cover the spread in

505
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: the first half minus two and a half. As I

506
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 3: said before, they have been monsters at it they've been

507
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: the best in the NFL at it and they're gonna

508
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 3: do it again in this one. So Patriots minus two

509
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 3: and a half first half spread. That is my hard

510
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 3: rock best bet.

511
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: Andrew, what is your hard rock best bet for AFC

512
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:38,719
Speaker 1: Championship Sunday?

513
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: Taking the Broncos with the points plus five and a half.

514
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 2: Matt Pearlt mentioned this stat nugget earlier this week that

515
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 2: four point or more home underdogs in the playoffs are

516
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 2: ten and zero against the spread. So they've been undefeated

517
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 2: so far this season against the number and past seasons

518
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 2: against the number. And when you look at Drake May,

519
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 2: when he's faced top ten defenses this year, he's been

520
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 2: sacked at least five times in every single match pick

521
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 2: it's top ten defense, and he's thrown at least one interception.

522
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: So I think that's enough. Where he's they're getting stalled

523
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 2: out drives, there's a potential turnover here or there, and

524
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: I think that's enough to keep this within a field goal.

525
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: So give me the Broncos, even if the Patriots end

526
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: up winning it in the fourth quarter.

527
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: All Right, you put those two things together at hard

528
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 1: rock Bet, you get plus four thirty one, So that

529
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: is our SGP here for the AFC Championship game. And

530
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 1: if you're looking for touchdown calls, don't forget the guys

531
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: already made them. You get Hunter Henry plus two to

532
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: twenty Evan Ingram plus five hundred. They're looking for Evan

533
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 1: Ingram to have a big day potentially here for Jarrett

534
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 1: Stidham and the Denver Broncos. But if you're gonna place

535
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 1: these bets, do it over at hard Rock Bet again

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538
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: job today as always, and if you love this, you're

539
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 1: gonna love the NFC one even more so make sure

540
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast feed,

541
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 1: and check out our NFC Best Bet show as well.

542
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us. But the story of the

543
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: game goes on. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey p We'll

544
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: see you next time kids and Joey Championship Sunday.

545
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 3: I'm also the Welsh by I didn't say in the

546
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 3: Welsh Nope, because you haven't been here in a couple

547
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 3: of weeks.

548
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 4: Go Patriots.

549
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: I'll do it again for the Welsh and Andrew ericson

550
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time kids. That

551
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: time it was the Welsh too.

552
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 4: Boom.

553
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

554
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,320
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555
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

556
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,639
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557
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,399
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558
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,000
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