WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 15 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.720 Check it down Man, down Man, Thursday morning, December one. 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:16.800 It is the Beating the Book Podcast Megapod Live from 0:00:16.800 --> 0:00:21.080 the d Our Home, each and every week on the megapod, 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:25.600 Gill Alexander, Mike Palm, Vice President Operations at Circus Sports, 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.400 Derrick Stephen's conciliaria as always here at the d with 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:31.720 me and Todd wishnep from his mom's cork attic somewhere 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.279 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thank you, gentlemen for being here our 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:39.440 esteemed guest this week speaking of the conciliary, Mike Palm, 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.920 He's conciliaria as I mentioned, for Derrick Stevens, who runs 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:45.920 the joint owns the joint Circus Sports. And of course 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:48.880 the deep part of that, uh can we call it conglomerate? 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:50.720 Is that? Can we call it a conglomerate? Do you 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:52.640 like that? Worry? Hey? I guess you could say whatever 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:57.040 you want on this podcast, but can we ever? Uh? 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.400 Derrick Stevens, everybody, thank you for being here. I appreciate it. 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:02.360 You were kind of to come last year, your annual appearance. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.000 Can we call an annual parents on the bank upon 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.600 We appreciate it? Man, Thank you, Thanks Gil for inviting me, 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.440 Mike for inviting me, Todd, thank you very much, honored 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.760 to be here, and and you have come equipped with 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.199 your Survivor grid, which I want to get to off 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:20.720 the top, which is you have got to be because 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:23.400 you this was all you. You were the guy who 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:25.959 obviously you have a hand in everything that goes on here, 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.720 but this was really your baby, right Like you wanted 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.120 to do a Survivor concause everybody else was doing handicapping 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.280 standard five games. You guys do that with millions, But 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:38.399 Survivor in just two years has become so awesome. You've 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.039 got to be truly fulfilled by that. Well, I mean, yeah, 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:43.560 it's it's uh, it's kind of bitter sweet and subways, 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:45.560 I kind of uh, you know, I kind of like 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.160 this year the way it's playing out, and get people, 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:50.680 get people into it. I mean, I've played Survivor for 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:54.000 more than thirty years, and uh, and and all the 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:56.720 ups and downs throughout all those decades. You know, I've 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:00.120 had some great, great sweats over the years, and I 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.040 just really wanted to give an opportunity for for others 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:05.840 to to participate. I mean, obviously this starts off as 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.480 his office pools and you know, in the Midwest maybe 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:11.360 a little bit more prevalent. And uh and I just 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:15.360 thought that Survivor could take off. So all that being said, UM, 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:17.880 I'm glad we did it last year. I'm very glad 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.079 we're doing it this year. And I'm glad so many 0:02:20.120 --> 0:02:22.040 people made it through the middle of the season to 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.480 be able to kind of start to see a little 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:26.000 bit of the light at the end of the tunnel 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:29.080 and understand the strategy behind this. I mean, this is 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.320 like a multiplayer chess match here, this is this is 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.240 true now. At the same point, I also tell you, Um, 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:37.680 I took a big chunk of profit sharing out of 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:40.480 some of my guys, like bike and everything else like that, 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.399 because you know, you could build a lot of great 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:44.320 things when you take a million eight hit on a 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:48.120 on an idea. So unfortunately, I don't I don't really 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:50.520 have a scenario where I'm getting fired for it. But uh, 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.040 but but I think we might have been off for that. 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.080 We could chew it our first year. You're saying, if 0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:57.679 somebody else came up with this, they might be I 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:00.280 don't know. We're pretty we're pretty uh, we're pretty good 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.320 about dealing with ideas. And some work and some don't. 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:04.760 You know, that's all the thing. We try a lot 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:07.160 of things, some work, some don't. Mikey, you know, we 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:11.239 sat in the meeting back in the spring deciding format, 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:13.800 and and we came down to the end, well, what 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.079 are the guarantees. Do we still want to do a guarantee? Yes, 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:19.280 we do want to do a guarantee. You know, we 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:23.480 expected Survivor to grow exponentially. Uh, it was sort of 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:25.920 you know, harmed by the pandemic last year, and it 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:27.560 was the first year or not, and we didn't really 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:29.600 have a chance to introduce into the market of people 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:31.960 that didn't understand it yet at Dead Pointer hadn't heard 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:35.560 of it. So we finally got to a discussion point 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.720 where I said, what about four million and four million 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.440 guaranteed for both? And there seemed to be general agreement 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:44.520 in the room, and and I thought we were gonna, 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:47.400 We're gonna, you know, end the meeting and go forward. 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:51.040 And then then Derek said, nah, you know, eight millions 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:54.040 just not sexy enough nice at oh really, but two 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:57.200 years ago one point five million was a very sexy number. 0:03:57.240 --> 0:03:59.840 So you know, he wanted to do test sexy inflation 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:03.440 gets inflation. Tell me, tell me it's all inflation now. 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:06.080 But so that that's where it was, Gil he said, 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.720 let's let's do ten million. I said, okay, five and no, 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.720 not five and five, not five and six and four, 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:14.720 six and four. We're gonna get five thousand more people 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:17.000 than we did last year we had thirty. We're gonna 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.880 get five thousand more people in the Survivor And you 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:21.600 know it ended up they were both just a little 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:24.719 over four thousand, four thousand eighty entries and Survivor and 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:26.880 I don't I don't mean to to not talk about 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.719 circle millions, because obviously that's awesome too, but four thousand 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:34.800 eighty and Survivor were down to twenty three survived, all 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:38.280 survived last week twenty one different people with twenty three 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:41.440 entries because two people have to uh, and there's still 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:44.320 the possibility of the one million dollar bonus in week eighteen. 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:45.880 I guess that's what I want to ask you, Derek, 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:49.520 is um so the rules that you guys both came 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:51.680 up with the one million dollar bonus at the end, 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:55.800 if you still have the chiefs and the bucks available. Um. Also, 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.120 of course, the biggest things are the Thanksgiving and Christmas corks, 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:03.080 thanksgivings a standalone week. Last year you added Christmas Week, 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:07.200 And in the end, we know people who I didn't 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:09.479 like that, they thought it added too much luck to 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:13.360 the process. I would kind of argue that it's awesome 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:16.080 because it almost adds more strategy to it. Yes, there's 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:19.720 more luck, but I think the strategy overweighs that you 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.040 you've gotta you've gotta be happy about that too. I 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:24.160 would think in the washing the end, Yeah, I mean 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:27.560 last year when we had thirty five contestants, go eighteen 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.120 and oh and we had just over a thousand contestants, 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:33.120 I kind of thought, well, you know, obviously, with us 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.240 putting the guarantee out, we thought we're gonna have far 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:40.080 many more contestants, and we thought that, you know, we 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:43.240 gotta add a little bit more complexity and a little 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:46.000 bit more strategy to it. So, um, the NFL gave 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.240 us the gift of the extra week, so that took 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:51.800 care of one extra leg. But I just didn't think 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:55.520 nineteen was going to be enough. Um, and I really 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:58.120 liked the way when the schedule came out that we 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:01.560 could create this Christmas Week because I think the strategy 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.520 of the Thanksgiving week. Everyone really likes it. And it 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.320 makes you think in week two, in Week three, am 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:09.840 I gonna shoot the Am I gonna shoot the Bears? Lines? 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.720 Am I gonna shoot shoot the Cowboys? Or something like that. 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:14.880 So I kind of thought, Okay, we're gonna take that 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:18.160 same theme and we we have a three day, three 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:21.240 three game Christmas week between the Thursday and the two 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.080 two Saturday games. And I thought what that would do 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:28.080 would would create more strategy. So I thought it would 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:33.840 reduce randomness, reduce luck because now you have to protect 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:37.120 for these six teams and Thanksgiving and these six teams 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:41.359 in on Christmas and uh, And I thought I thought 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.520 going a twenty and oh was was going to be uh, 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:46.920 you know, probably the right number with the number of 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.560 people because because it's not linear tex pinential, I mean, 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:52.360 the nineteenth you know, the nineteenth selection, the twenties selection 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:54.520 makes it a lot lot harder. Yeah. And just to 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:56.719 wrap it up, the Survivor talk to just to let 0:06:56.720 --> 0:07:00.599 people know of those twenty three remaining entries, each value 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:03.600 currently of over two d sixty thousand dollars almost two 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:07.839 hundred sixty one thousand uh. For this week's purposes of 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.760 the big favorites, Dallas and Buffalo not available to anybody 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:14.120 in the field. Sixteen of twenty three have Miami available, 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:17.080 fifteen of twenty three have San Francisco available, thirteen of 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:20.560 twenty three have Arizona available, and just four of twenty 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:23.239 three have Tampa Bay available. Maybe they're saving Tampa Bay 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.200 for the last week. By the way, two of twenty 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:28.560 three have Kansas City available for that last bonus and 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:31.320 the other little thing. Ten of twenty three have green 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:34.360 Bay available for Christmas. Green Bay has all of a sudden, 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:38.080 looked like the only Christmas play to make um, but 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:40.760 obviously ten people have that option. Ten entries have that. Yeah, 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:42.520 I mean, back in August, we're talking about how you 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.800 gotta save Arizona, you gotta save Arizona, and that looked 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.200 like that looked like to you know, the initial the 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:50.680 initial strategy that you gotta hang on to. But then 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.920 what's happened with both Green Bay and Cleveland. Green Bay 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.880 has become probably the play you gotta save for Christmas, 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.160 just become more of the favorite. Now out of all 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:02.640 out of out of our twenty three entrance, twenty two 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:07.440 of them have either Green Bay or Arizona. UM. I 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:10.160 think what you're gonna see, You've got this other team 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.800 that's lurking out there, that has a lot of availability, 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:14.960 And I think the Tennessee Titans are going to be 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:19.200 very critical UM for for these entrance moving forward here 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:22.520 because the availabilities there, and there's a couple of couple 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.920 of situations where you know, when you start thinking about, 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:29.600 you know the interview did with Joe Peter, you're thinking about, Okay, 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.640 it's one thing to to to make your selection and survive, 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:35.839 but now you really you really have to evaluate the pot. 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.840 You got to figure out, Okay, what's someone else doing. 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.840 There could be a reason why not taking um one 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:45.240 of the one of one of those two on Christmas. 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:49.320 You may have an opportunity to significantly increase your your 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:51.840 intrinsic value you want to ticket. So you really gotta 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:54.520 evaluate how you how you play every one of these out. 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:56.360 I know, I talked to parlay G the other day 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:59.160 on Sunday. So parlay G is flying in every every 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:02.199 Sunday morning, and and he's making his own hedge bets 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.480 in the book one of the last entrance, Yeah, one 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:07.680 of the last entrance, And and he has mapped out 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.920 for every entrance what he expects them to do. I 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.120 think that working his way back. So I thought I 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:18.000 had a really interesting conversation with with him and Banks 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.520 on Sunday, and I think before the season I said 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:22.600 it here, which is, I don't think you map out 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:24.600 the whole season to begin with. I think you played 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:27.440 a survive early and then you played a win, which 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:29.360 is what Joe said the other day on Sunday, or 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:33.280 excuse me on Tuesday on the Numbers game as well. Um, 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:37.560 really really fascinating game for sure, and then circummillions the lead. 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:41.640 The leader is what now? Through now, Hannibal barkas first 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:44.559 and second one of his entries fifty one and nineteen. 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:47.320 He's in second place at fifty and twenty. Then there's 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:50.040 a three way tie for third, two of them with 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.079 the same person, Derbify and mad Russian has the other 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.360 one at forty and twenty one. So Barkers got a 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:59.080 two game lead over those three and and an entry 0:09:59.080 --> 0:10:01.920 in between him as well. With four weeks to go. Oh, 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.120 I don't even know what to think about millions and 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.240 any handicapping contest anymore. In the NFL, with five games 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:09.599 a week, you don't want to take away anything for 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.160 obviously he's got one end to their right, But like, 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:16.920 is it anything but a massive pool where one person 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:19.480 is just sort of randomly going to be awesome? Because 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.640 is there any rhyme or reason to this? Like Las 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:24.960 Vegas Chris had two great years, James Selinas had two 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:27.160 great years. Even that's not a big enough sample size 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:30.720 right to like really know if you can do this. 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:34.600 As Roxy Roxboro famously says, gil nobody wins at football 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:36.600 all the term nobody and that was even back then. 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:39.720 Now good for him man or good for her whoever 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.199 it is. Remember when Hannibal Barker was at like se 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.760 and PAULI had the theory let's fade him the whole 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:49.640 rest of the way. That don't. But it's interesting with 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.480 two entries here, or even for derbify with two At 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.360 what point do you because they've been making same entries 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.720 with these right, what point two weeks left, one week left, 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:03.000 do you vary at the end? I think I think so, 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.079 because that's the that's the hammer at the end if 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:09.600 you have that option. Yeah, yeah, still too early with 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:14.160 four weeks left in in millions millions three by the way, Todd. 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.480 How do we do last week? God Todd, who was 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:22.040 not changed since the Ivan Power administration. Now, it's interesting 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:24.560 that when you and Mikey agreed, it didn't work out 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:28.800 so well for the two of you. The Wolfie football team, 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:30.440 which I was also going to take, but when I 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:32.679 saw YouTube take it, I realized that was a mistake. 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:35.520 I stayed away from the Woofties, and the Woofties did. 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:42.160 What the woofs do is defense organization. We made the 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.520 pick on Thursday, we found out Saturday they wouldn't have 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.319 half their defense. It's like the entire practice squad. I think, 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:53.080 now you need a defense. Come on, I'm a payers. 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.920 It's just funny that whenever you got whenever more than 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.680 like two of us agreed, that pick never wins. You 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.680 guys also agreed on Arizona on Monday Night Football and 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:05.440 took it in the Old Key Star on that one 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.160 as well, So both of you guys went one and two. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.920 I also went one in two with my every week winner, 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:16.000 Jack's under my Jags under wins every week. That's the 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:21.880 only thing I picked correctly. My loss is the Buffalo Bills, 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:26.640 which I totally deserved the whole way and Buffalo. That 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:28.560 was a joke. That was a joke that I didn't 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:31.280 deserve to cover at the end when I should have covered, 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:33.839 because clearly the Bills were the wrong side the whole time, 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:37.199 and then they were going to cover, and then Jets. 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:39.640 The Jets didn't really have a chance. So that was 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:43.200 a bad pick on the teeth. So basically the standings 0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:45.880 say the same. Mike is eighteen twenty and one, You're 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:47.880 a half game behind at eighteen and twenty one. I'm 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.880 two behind in the lost column. I'm sorry, I messed 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:55.160 it up. You are seventeen going the wrong way. You 0:12:55.240 --> 0:13:00.199 are nineteen and twenty three. Mikey is two and one, 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:02.400 stays at half a game ahead of you again, and 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.920 I am eighteen and twenty four. On the teaser side, 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.880 everybody won their teasers, so you are six and seven 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:10.840 one Mikey seven and seven, and I am nine and 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:15.160 five Mikey with an incredibly lucky teaser win. When the 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:19.520 Pittsburgh Steelers decided, well, actually when the guy on Minnesota 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:24.000 decided to taunt at twenty nine to nothing. As soon 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:27.240 as he did it, I said to myself, watch that 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.800 be important, And all of a sudden. Here we go, 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.520 and we're back into the old NFL. It comes down 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.520 to the last play. It doesn't matter if it's twenty 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.680 nine and nothing. It's always going to come down to 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:41.920 the last play. Pittsburgh got the ball the way to 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:43.840 the twelve yards. By the way, the ball was in 0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:46.960 Friar moves hands in the end zone. He could have 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:50.880 fought that ball for a touchdown. That was unbelievable. Nice 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:54.120 job by Chase Claypool a wasting time with his first down. 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:56.440 And then to blame the guard that came over and 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.360 tried to get the ball from him. He blamed the guard. Well, 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.480 it was it all wrong right, like he started the 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:05.200 stupidity and then the guard made it worse. Joe Green 0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:07.520 had the best quote. Who said, what are we doing 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:11.040 trying to win games? Or show are behinds? Did Joe 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:13.480 Green have a nickname? By the way, he was mean, 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.280 by the way, when that's happening, aren't you guys just 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.480 saying to yourself Kirk Cousins, what he is? Kirk Cousins 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.840 gonna thro my friend texting he goes, Kirk Cousin's gonna 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.040 throw a pick six here immediately threw that interception to 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:26.920 the guy. I don't know how the Steeler's defensive back 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.359 didn't get in the end zone, but he threw that interception, 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.720 and you're just like, what, how is this happening every week? 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.200 That Kirk, because it's unbelievable. He ran out of gas 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.240 after fifteen years. I didn't get that. I texted I 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.560 was like, how did he not score? All? Right, let 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.000 me ask you this question when Tom was down fifteen 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.400 and he scores. I don't like going for two there 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:51.160 because it takes all the momentum out of their sales 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.360 when they don't get the two another down nine. I 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.640 know some people say you want you want to know 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:57.960 how many times? But I thought it stunted the momentum 0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:04.080 right there for them. Yeah, had rufus. That's the age 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.320 old argument. Do you want to know ahead of time 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.120 what you need or do you do you want to 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.400 keep the momentum. I don't think there's a right or wrong. Yeah, 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.880 I mean I think most people. Most people were offended, right. 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:16.720 I got like at least three or four tweets when 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.680 Baltimore tried to take it from nine to seven. And 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.840 I do think it's about knowing the future. Right, you 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:24.760 want to know what you need. There is the old 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:26.960 school thought, which is what you're talking about. Mikey. Doesn't 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:28.600 make it the wrong thought. It's the old school thought, 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.080 which is, no, you want your players having the mentality 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:32.560 that it's only one more store. But it's really not 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.240 one more score, right, It's that you gotta go six 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.480 and two, and if you leave that too for the end, 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:39.520 you're just leaving it up to the gods at that point. 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.760 But the nine and seven is different, Gilly, because in 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.120 the nine and seven you're taking yourself out of even 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:47.920 having that opportunity to get the last touchdown if you 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.920 miss it. What Mikey saying on the fifteen is just 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:52.960 wait to do it on the last one is opposed 0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:55.320 to do it on the earlier one. Those are two 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:57.560 sort of different, a little bit a little bit different. 0:15:57.640 --> 0:15:59.800 Nine let's just take nine and nine to seven versus 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:02.400 eight to six. Nine to seven is about knowing the future, 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:05.520 knowing what you need. Eight to six is actually a 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:10.440 mathematical probability enhancement for winning. You actually should go from 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.960 eight to six. But Mike, you run it up about fifteen. 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.480 At fifteen, should they have should they have just kicked 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:19.440 the extra point? There, and he's he's he's of the 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.200 opinion that you want to keep the momentum rolling, which 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:23.760 you know, I don't have a problem with that. It 0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.359 was like the self fulfilling prophecy for all the Minnesota's 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.000 fans watching Cousins implode in a game that they absolutely 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.440 were dominating. Right, So I thought that kind of took 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.800 a little bit of the pressure off of Cousins the 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:35.760 next drive, knowing they were still up two scores with 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:37.760 four minutes to go or five minutes to go. All right, 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:39.440 let's talk about third before we get to our best bets. 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:40.680 Let's talk about it. I don't know, by the way, 0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.120 I have no idea who we're all getting the three 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.160 best bets this week. Um, but Thursday Night Football tonight 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:47.120 it is now a three and a half point spread. 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:48.920 So it's gone from three to four to three and 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.960 a half, three to four to three, back to three 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.120 and a half in favor of the Chiefs tonight all 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.720 the road against the Charges. So the issue with so 0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:00.160 many of our games official podcast, uh, the issue is 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:05.159 that Chris Jones COVID for the Chiefs, Rashawn Slater, they 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:08.840 standing out offensive line for the Chargers COVID. Probably I 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.400 think it means more that's laters out, but that's that's 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.800 just my opinion. The issue is that both Austin Ekeler 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:19.359 and Derwin James are questionable. So I'm not sure how 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:21.920 I can make any pre flop bet on this not 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.000 knowing if those two guys are playing or not, or 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.160 either of those two guys. You guys have any bets 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:30.440 on this game tonight so far? UM, I do not. 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:33.800 But um, you know, people often ask what are you 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.280 gonna need? Well, when you have a situation like what's 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:41.080 going on this week, that's come in far later because 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.600 no one wants to make an early best. So our 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.080 our volume on this game, which should be over the top, 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.960 it's not as of right now because exactly for the 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:54.800 reasons you stated, people want to wait. Um, I think 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:57.000 if you had to make a play right now, I 0:17:57.040 --> 0:17:59.199 think you've got to be looking at the chargers. Chargers 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.280 are at home charges the money, and then the way 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:03.399 COVID plays out, you may have you may have a 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.800 certain move where you're gonna get a lot of value 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.760 on the chargers play over the next let's say six hours, 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.840 where I have a hard time believing you can get 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.480 a lot of value out of a Chief's play because 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:18.560 at three and a half, it doesn't really make that 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:20.480 much of a difference if it goes to a five 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:23.000 and a half. Effectively, Yeah, I mean you got the four. 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:24.560 But but I think if you had to make a 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:28.080 play right now, um and considering that um, the COVID 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:30.200 numbers maybe random, I would take the I would take 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.080 the Charges. I think I agree with all of that, 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.040 liking you, Eileen, Chiefs, but I think this is the 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.600 way you play this because I think the Charges when 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:39.600 tonight they're going to run the table and win the West. 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.280 You lay one sixty five with the Chiefs tonight and 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.360 you can find plus two forty to win the division 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.439 with the Chargers. That's how you would play. That's how 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:50.120 I would Okay, alright, look at mikey go, that's interesting. 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:54.640 The the the uh I think that you know, I've 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:57.520 only said it five million times, but I think people 0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:00.240 are starting to get the idea you have to these 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:04.440 games in game, and this could not be any more 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:08.480 of the most obvious scenario now this week, when everybody's 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:11.679 out in every single game, you have no idea who's playing. 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.199 Just watch the damn game and then bet. My god, 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.560 why wouldn't you wait to makes no sense. I've never 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:20.600 heard you mentioned that before the first time. I know, 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:22.600 I've never mentioned that. I've never mentioned But you know 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:24.439 what if the guys, if you want to keep betting pregame, 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:26.439 go ahead, keep betting pregame. All right, Well, we have 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:29.199 to make three pregame bets here, Todd. That's how this works. 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.360 So uh, it's it's increasingly difficult because there's so many 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:35.520 other games with moving parts. But Derek will start with you, 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:38.359 what as of Thursday morning? Anyway? And this is the problem. 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.640 We do this earlier, earlier in the week, obviously with 0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:43.639 with not complete information. But what's your first best bet? Well, 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:45.760 let me let me just ask Todd. Todd, you listed 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:50.159 out the records of Mike, Gil and yourself. Do you 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:52.840 ever keep records of who the how the guests have done? Yes? 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.600