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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 3: It's time for history. They're all in line. We're ready

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Speaker 3: for this time.

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Speaker 1: They're all in the Belmont Stakes. Brink of another two

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Speaker 1: legs four back to with wind on the turn to

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Speaker 1: get at the pickup drive near the back of the pen.

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Speaker 1: As the field turns for home, Hendy first do and

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Speaker 1: opening on the other side.

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Speaker 4: It's trying first drive.

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Speaker 1: As they come to the final drolong.

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Speaker 3: Kick, fedling on what's drove down to the.

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Speaker 1: Line that a possible result here.

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Speaker 4: Whash that Bell Stakes.

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Speaker 5: Hello and welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 5: I'm sean guerrilla, joined today by Mike Conti and Mike Samich.

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Speaker 5: Should break down the one hundred and fifty fifth running

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Speaker 5: of the Belmont Stakes, also the fiftieth anniversary since Secretariat's

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Speaker 5: record setting run at Belmont Park in Helmont, New York.

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Speaker 5: Going to post at seven oh two pm Eastern Time

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Speaker 5: on Saturday. It will be race twelve on the card.

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Speaker 5: We have an exciting weekend for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.

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Speaker 5: Nine Grade one stakes, four Grade two stakes, a handful

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Speaker 5: of Grade three stakes, as well, in my opinion, the

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Speaker 5: best racing weekend in American horse racing aside from Breeders'

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Speaker 5: Cup weekend. We're gonna jump right into the Belmont Stakes though,

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Speaker 5: and then go back and talk about the Friday and

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Speaker 5: Saturday undercards and get some other best bets, some ways

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Speaker 5: to play these cards from our horse racing handicappers. Let's

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Speaker 5: start off talking about the pace though of the Belmont

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Speaker 5: Stakes again, race twelve on Saturday twelve, seven oh two

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Speaker 5: pm post time. The pace is the key here because

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Speaker 5: the number four National Treasure who was your Preakness winner,

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Speaker 5: he is five to one in the Belmont Steaks, might

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Speaker 5: be the loan speed. Again, I don't see much other

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Speaker 5: speed in here, just like we didn't see much other

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Speaker 5: speed on Preakness Day going against them. He was able

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Speaker 5: to wire that field. Is he gonna be able to

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Speaker 5: do it at a mile and a half in the

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Speaker 5: Belmont Stakes and stay the distance is the question. I

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Speaker 5: think the big X factor in terms of pace is

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Speaker 5: the number eight Angel Vampire, who was your post time

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Speaker 5: favorite in the Kentucky Derby after the number six forte

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Speaker 5: in Kneebo mon Stakes scratch out of the Derby, but

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Speaker 5: he is putting on blinkers for this race. I think

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Speaker 5: that's going to keep him closer to the pace and

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Speaker 5: that might make things a bit more interesting if nobody

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Speaker 5: else sends with National Treasures. So, Mike Conti, I want

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Speaker 5: to go to you first. How do you handicap the

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Speaker 5: pace for this race? And how do you see National

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Speaker 5: Treasure's ability if nobody else goes with him to maybe

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Speaker 5: stay that mile and a half?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, ajink Chan, you hit a nail on the head, right.

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Speaker 2: National Treasure is loan speed on paper, and yes it's

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Speaker 2: a mile and a half, but again loan speed.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we've got blinkers going on Angel of Empire. National

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Speaker 2: Treasure is going to get the lead. The question is

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Speaker 2: is he can he get the distance? And in this spot,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think it's a really interesting way to

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Speaker 2: look at it. We've seen a couple of other horses

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Speaker 2: in the past go gate to wire in the Elmont.

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Speaker 2: It's it's the big sandy, right, we know, big sweeping turns.

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Speaker 2: It's a tiring racetrack, especially on that dirt course. So

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Speaker 2: ten National Treasure get the distance, We'll see. I think

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Speaker 2: that he's the only logical one to go out for

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Speaker 2: the lead and get the pace. You know, maybe we

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Speaker 2: see somebody else like the five Il Morocco try to

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Speaker 2: try to go out, But I just don't think that

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Speaker 2: he's fast enough. I think National Treasure has way more

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Speaker 2: natural gate speed to be able to break and get

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Speaker 2: the lead early. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I think National Treasure, the way he's been moving around

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Speaker 5: the track leading up to this race too, has really

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Speaker 5: impressed the morning clockers as well, Mike Samich. Other than

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Speaker 5: the five, maybe you know who's thirty to one on

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Speaker 5: the board, and if he was ninety to one, I'm

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Speaker 5: not even sure if I would bet him to hit

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Speaker 5: the underneath an exotics. Is there anybody else you think

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Speaker 5: can compete with National Treasure and maybe force him to

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Speaker 5: actually run hard early and not have much left in

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Speaker 5: the tank late.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Ilmi, I call in the five is pretty

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Speaker 1: interesting here. I mean went twenty three to forty five

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Speaker 1: and one last time going a mile, so has the

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Speaker 1: speed if you try and quarter a horse. IHM out

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Speaker 1: of there to get to National Treasure. And I thought

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Speaker 1: Kanti brought up a great point there that the natural

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Speaker 1: speed of National Treasure is what really helps him. It

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Speaker 1: was just a masterclass ride from John Velasqua was in

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Speaker 1: the Preakness. If you go back and you watch it,

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Speaker 1: Mage broke well and Velaska has just floated out from

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Speaker 1: that three path all the way out and pinched Mage back,

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Speaker 1: forced the other speed wide into the first turn, and

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Speaker 1: then was able to cut the corner and go slow

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Speaker 1: there for the first half mile. I do think that

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Speaker 1: the draw was very important here you mentioned Angel Empire.

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Speaker 1: The last two horses to be drawn were both brad

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Speaker 1: Cox's horses, Angel of Empire and Tapa Shoes on the rail.

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Speaker 1: Tapa Shoes drawing the one makes Tapa Shoes an interesting

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Speaker 1: pace perspective horse. In my mind, I think that's the

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Speaker 1: other one that has some early get up. And if

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Speaker 1: you look at this, Tapa Shoes clearly the worst of

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Speaker 1: the three brad Cox horses, but clearly possesses the most

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Speaker 1: speed of the three. Brad Cox horses went forty six

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Speaker 1: and four to the half mile last time at Oakland Park,

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Speaker 1: going a mile in an eighth And if I'm Brad

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Speaker 1: Cox and I've got three, we see Chad Brown do

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Speaker 1: this on the turn. One of them's going and I'm

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Speaker 1: not letting anyone get an easy lead. You have the

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Speaker 1: Railhorse now with speed. I think that's the brag Cox

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Speaker 1: is going to go. I think Tapa Shoes is going

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Speaker 1: to be the horse that tries to press National Treasure early,

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Speaker 1: especially when you have horses like Hit Show, who doesn't

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Speaker 1: want to press the pace but wants to be around it,

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Speaker 1: and Angel Empire who's probably going to be coming from

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Speaker 1: the clouds in a way. So it makes sense to

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Speaker 1: me that Brad Cox says, hey, we're using Tapa Shoes early.

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Speaker 1: We're making National Treasure work for this lead, and especially

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Speaker 1: with that Gay Raw, the rail draw forces the hand

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Speaker 1: in my mind of Tapa Shoes. So I think Tapa

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Speaker 1: Shoes tries to send with National Treasure create a little

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Speaker 1: bit more of a mess early than what we saw

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Speaker 1: in the Preakness. Yeah, very interesting point there. When you

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Speaker 1: own a third of the field as the trainer, you

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Speaker 1: can basically set up the pace for yourself if you

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Speaker 1: can create a rabbit to go with the other early speed.

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Speaker 1: I like the Angel Vampire maybe best coming in on paper,

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Speaker 1: So if they're going to set up the race for him,

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Speaker 1: maybe I like him the most as a top wing contender.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to your top wing contenders, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about some horses who are going to also for the race.

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Speaker 1: We did talk briefly about the number five Il Moraklow

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Speaker 1: at thirty to one. Is he a horse that you're

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Speaker 1: not going to include in any exotics? And then a

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Speaker 1: horse that I personally going to go against here the

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Speaker 1: number nine red route one didn't see much speed in

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Speaker 1: the breakness. You need to be forwardly placed if you're

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Speaker 1: going to hit the board at Belmont. He's not training

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Speaker 1: as well as he was coming into the briefness. Don't

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Speaker 1: love him coming back off at two weeks for rest.

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Speaker 1: So curious if you're.

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Speaker 5: Going to use the number nine red Route one in

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Speaker 5: a race where you typically need to be forward and

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Speaker 5: he's going to be coming from the clouds. We also

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Speaker 5: may not see much base so much you're gonna go

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Speaker 5: right back to you. The five and the niner tosses

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Speaker 5: for me to agree or disagree.

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Speaker 1: I would agree with both of those. I read Route

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Speaker 1: one is just going to be too far back. You

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Speaker 1: made a great point, Sean. A lot of people say, oh,

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Speaker 1: it's a mile and a half race that favors closers.

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Speaker 1: That is wrong. Actually does not generally favorite closers here

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Speaker 1: at Belmont. You need to be more forwardly placed, especially

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Speaker 1: to win the race. Generally it's hard to win from

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Speaker 1: way off the pace. In this spot, you can hit

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Speaker 1: the board, you can muck it up a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And I guess Red Route one which is going to

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Speaker 1: be trying to run up for that third or fourth spot.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at the horses that Red Route

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Speaker 1: one has beaten, it just does and give you confidence

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Speaker 1: that this is a horse that's going to hit the board.

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Speaker 1: Here in the Belmont, for me, look, I always try

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Speaker 1: and chuck a favorite. Tapa Trice is gonna be the

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Speaker 1: horse I chuck here. The three horse who look is

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Speaker 1: gonna be three to one, three to one in the

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Speaker 1: morning line probably goes off as your third choice. I

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Speaker 1: think Angela Vampire gets bet out of the second choice here.

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Speaker 1: But the more I watch Tapa Trice, horse has a

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Speaker 1: boatload of talent, just has not caught up mentally to

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Speaker 1: that talent yet. And when you go back and you

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Speaker 1: watch the derby, just again a lot of issues from

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Speaker 1: a just an athletics standpoint, not athletic enough to get

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Speaker 1: to holes, slow out of the gate, just slow. In general,

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Speaker 1: early we mentioned how closers generally don't farewell. Well, guess what,

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Speaker 1: Tapa Trice is gonna be a closer here. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: be way back there as well. I'm scared this is

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Speaker 1: the horse that's gonna kill my super But I am

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Speaker 1: gonna leave Tapa Trice out as well. I think he's

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Speaker 1: the one that you can chuck at a short price.

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Speaker 5: Habits have had a lot of success in the Belmont,

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Speaker 5: winning the Belmont Stakes. I agree. I don't love his

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Speaker 5: running style either. We'll probably be against him from an

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Speaker 5: actual win contender for that reason. I'll probably use them

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Speaker 5: defensively in exotics though, But that is interesting going against

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Speaker 5: one of, you know, the shorter priced horses if you

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Speaker 5: really want to.

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Speaker 1: Juice up your tickets.

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Speaker 5: So the five and the nine we agree on as tosses,

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Speaker 5: you're also going to toss the two degrees as well.

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Speaker 5: Mike CONTI five and nine agree or disagree, and then

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Speaker 5: where else are you looking to toss?

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Speaker 2: Cut your card? Agree on five and nine completely. And

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Speaker 2: the other one, frankly, is who Mike Samach talked about

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Speaker 2: earlier in the One for the exact same reason that Mike.

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Speaker 3: Spoke about, right, Tapa Shoes.

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Speaker 2: It's it's very logical to believe that he's going to

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Speaker 2: be sent to try to create some more pace in

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Speaker 2: this race and at least press the pace and force

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Speaker 2: National Treasure to use more of his speed early on

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Speaker 2: in this race. And so for that reason, the one

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Speaker 2: to me is a toss. I don't want to call

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Speaker 2: him a rabbit, but I don't think that he's in

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Speaker 2: this race to win the race.

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Speaker 5: So the one thing I do want to point out,

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Speaker 5: just based on clocker reports, I have gotten encouraging signs

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Speaker 5: from Tapa Chow's even though he hasn't raised it a while.

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Speaker 5: They've actually said he's been working better than Hit Show,

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Speaker 5: which I think is interesting.

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Speaker 3: Hit Show.

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Speaker 5: The reports were a bit more glowing going into the Derby,

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Speaker 5: just in terms of like current form.

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Speaker 1: That stuff I.

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Speaker 5: Really think is very readily available information for these big

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Speaker 5: race days.

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Speaker 3: So just take that for what you will.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, maybe he hangs on for third

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Speaker 5: or fourth, but if he's going to be used as

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Speaker 5: a rabbit, he's setting up the other horses in his barn.

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Speaker 5: Let's talk about your top link contenders. So we know,

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Speaker 5: Mike Salmach you're not going to go with the number

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Speaker 5: two Tapa Trice. Curious though, amongst Forte, who was your

223
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Speaker 5: original morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby ended up

224
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Speaker 5: scratching the number four National Treasure? Who's five to one?

225
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Speaker 5: Who is your Preakness winner? And then you have Angel

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Speaker 5: Lampire the number eight at seven to two. Who you

227
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Speaker 5: prefer amongst those? And if you're considering it all, maybe

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Speaker 5: including anybody else because the number three Arcangelo at eight

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Speaker 5: to one, the Peter Panwinter has gotten a lot of

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Speaker 5: us this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a this is a big moment for

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Speaker 1: Kanti and I. Here we're trying to hit the triple

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Speaker 1: crown on the Action Pod Network. Here had Maje in

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Speaker 1: the first race, Kanti had National Treasure there in the Preakness.

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Speaker 1: So the questions can we close it out with the Belmont.

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Speaker 1: One of the reasons I picked Mage in the Derby

237
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Speaker 1: was the Florida Derby, which I thought was a wildly

238
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Speaker 1: underrated race. I think it might be a key race

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Speaker 1: the way fort Bragg ran on Derby Day. Maje obviously

240
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Speaker 1: comes back to win the Derby. I don't want to

241
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Speaker 1: pick Forte, but I'm gonna go ahead and pick Forte here.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think he's done anything wrong. We talked

243
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,079
Speaker 1: about how you have to be more forwardly placed. I

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Speaker 1: think of the main contenders, Forte is the one who

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Speaker 1: is going to be closest to the pace. Again, like

246
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Speaker 1: I didn't find the two isn't a bad price here either.

247
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Speaker 1: We were just staring at three to one in the

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Speaker 1: Derby in a twenty horse field. This is not the Derby.

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Speaker 1: This isn't as tough of a field. Now there's questions

250
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,560
Speaker 1: with him coming back. He's had obviously a longer layoff

251
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Speaker 1: because he did miss the Derby, but all the reports

252
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Speaker 1: he's training well. Took a little bit of a a

253
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Speaker 1: rough step earlier this week but didn't affect him, and

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Speaker 1: there's been no rumors. Last time we did this for

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Speaker 1: the for the Derby, there were rumors swirling he was

256
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Speaker 1: going to pull out of the race. None of that

257
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,120
Speaker 1: has happened yet, so I think everything's good to go

258
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Speaker 1: with Forte. I still think that Florida Derby was the

259
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Speaker 1: best prep race we've seen heading into the three Triple

260
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Speaker 1: Crown races. I think you're going to get enough pace

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Speaker 1: early to set it up for him to sit in

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Speaker 1: midpack and make a move. And oh, by the way,

263
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,800
Speaker 1: he's danced all the dances. He likes to win. It

264
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Speaker 1: is just a horse that has heart and wants to

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Speaker 1: get the job done. I think it's Fort's race to lose,

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Speaker 1: and I think five to two is not a bad

267
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:33,920
Speaker 1: price on him either.

268
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Speaker 5: He's the classiest horse in the field by far, and yes,

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Speaker 5: you know, I would not overlook him, especially considering what

270
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,360
Speaker 5: else we have coming back. I don't think you can

271
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Speaker 5: go against four tea completely. Anybody else you're going to

272
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Speaker 5: use on multi race tickets if you're building, i'd say

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Speaker 5: mostly for multise Any other horses you're going to include.

274
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Speaker 1: Angel Vampire I think is really interesting too. I'm a

275
00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 1: little concerned about where Angel Vampires sitting, as you mentioned Sean.

276
00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,400
Speaker 1: Adding the blinkers I think does help, but I'm concerned

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Speaker 1: he's going to be too far back. And the three

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Speaker 1: Archangelo is the other one that I just kept going

279
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Speaker 1: back to, and we talked about how Tappitts have a

280
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Speaker 1: ton of success. Well, this is an arrogate but out

281
00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:12,320
Speaker 1: of a tap at mayor that has on the on

282
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Speaker 1: the female side of the family. Rags to Riches and Giselle,

283
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,120
Speaker 1: two horses that have both won the Belmont. So clearly

284
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Speaker 1: what has the breeding to like this track, has a

285
00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:22,800
Speaker 1: breeding to like the distance, and is peaking at the

286
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:24,600
Speaker 1: right time as well. I mean, you like to see

287
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Speaker 1: a win over the track and the horse taking a

288
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Speaker 1: step forward. So for me, the three Arcangelo, the six

289
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,440
Speaker 1: forte in the eight are your main win contenders. I

290
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,320
Speaker 1: like Forte on top, but I would not be shocked

291
00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:36,960
Speaker 1: if either of the other two get the job done.

292
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,959
Speaker 5: Three six' eight For Mike somch potentially in multi race,

293
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Speaker 5: tickets but Certainly king on the six. Forte, Yeah Angel

294
00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 5: mempire was my initial. Reaction arcangelo was a.

295
00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:49,680
Speaker 3: Horse to at eight to.

296
00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:51,960
Speaker 5: ONE i initially looked at and said that price is

297
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 5: probably about. Right if he was fifteen to, ONE i

298
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,560
Speaker 5: would absolutely be betting him to win, that you, know

299
00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,120
Speaker 5: that's PROBABLY i expected maybe fifteen to, one twelve to.

300
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,440
Speaker 5: ONE i Think darvi d did a really good job

301
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,320
Speaker 5: making this morning. Line MIKE conti who are your top

302
00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:05,880
Speaker 5: win contenders and your top overall.

303
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:07,480
Speaker 3: Selection so the.

304
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 2: Top overall selection for just about every reason That Mike

305
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:14,480
Speaker 2: samitch just mentioned is number three Arc. Angelo when you

306
00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:15,320
Speaker 2: look at this.

307
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,240
Speaker 3: Horse, overall we've heard it. Right the win over.

308
00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:22,160
Speaker 2: The, track the horse has progressed really nicely throughout his.

309
00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:26,080
Speaker 2: Career and, YES i do believe that he's bred top

310
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,439
Speaker 2: and bottom for this, race right and for a race

311
00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:33,360
Speaker 2: of this. Distance you, Know Jabier castlano obviously just won

312
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,960
Speaker 2: the Derbyond. Mage he's been riding exceptionally well this. Year

313
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 2: he's Ridden arcangelo in these two last, starts which were both,

314
00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,880
Speaker 2: wins so he knows this horse really. Well AND i think,

315
00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,720
Speaker 2: that unlike some of the other issues with some of

316
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,640
Speaker 2: the deep closers that we've talked, About arcangelo is someone

317
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:55,000
Speaker 2: that's gonna, sit you, know in a stalking type position, two,

318
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:59,080
Speaker 2: three four. Lengths you look at Where arcangelo has been

319
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,400
Speaker 2: at first in those last two, races it was never

320
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,559
Speaker 2: more than four lanths, Out so he's not gonna be

321
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 2: coming from the. CLOUDS i think he will be very nicely.

322
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,400
Speaker 2: POSITIONED i love the post position for him being in

323
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,960
Speaker 2: the three, because as we, mentioned you know number One

324
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,560
Speaker 2: Tapa shoes is probably gonna get. Sent we know That

325
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 2: National treasure is gonna, go we know that the five

326
00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 2: Ear maricolo is probably also going to try to, go

327
00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,440
Speaker 2: and so it Leaves nash or excuse, me Leaves arcangelo

328
00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,680
Speaker 2: being able to sit a really nice trip on that

329
00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,760
Speaker 2: rail with those other. Horses we know tap It trice

330
00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,960
Speaker 2: has the gate, issues so it Leaves arcangelo this really

331
00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,320
Speaker 2: beautiful rail trip That i'm envisioning for him and coming

332
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 2: clean for. Home, SEAN i agree with. YOU i Think

333
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,400
Speaker 2: david did an awesome job with the morning. LINES i

334
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,240
Speaker 2: thought we were going to get like a ten to

335
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:50,240
Speaker 2: twelve to one.

336
00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,360
Speaker 3: Range eight to one is still attractive enough to.

337
00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,120
Speaker 2: Me AND i also think, that you, know for for

338
00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 2: every reason That Mike somuch mentioned with FOURTE i do

339
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,360
Speaker 2: think That fort's going to take a decent amount of

340
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 2: money in, here and SO i don't. KNOW i, MEAN

341
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 2: i think That archangelo will stay at eight to. ONE

342
00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,440
Speaker 2: i don't see him dipping much below, that but we

343
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,000
Speaker 2: also maybe get a little bit of a luck and

344
00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,080
Speaker 2: see him float up to nine or ten to. One

345
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 2: so that's he's my top. CHOICE i will also be

346
00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 2: using in my multi race. Bets i'll also be Using National,

347
00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,840
Speaker 2: treasure just because of the fact, that again he moves so.

348
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,000
Speaker 2: Fluidly he just won The. Preakness he has the most

349
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,240
Speaker 2: natural gate speed and if for whatever, reason you Know

350
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,480
Speaker 2: tapachu's has issues in the, gate Your miracolo doesn't get

351
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 2: sent whatever it could. Be if he is loan speed

352
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,920
Speaker 2: and gets a loose, lead you, know he could easily

353
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 2: win this. Thing and then, LISTEN i do, Agree forte

354
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 2: has done nothing. WRONG i mean we said this on

355
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,960
Speaker 2: the podcast when we were doing The derby. Podcast, Right

356
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 2: forte has done nothing wrong in his. Career you, KNOW

357
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,760
Speaker 2: i don't love though that he took another misstep.

358
00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 3: Again it just it makes you.

359
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 2: Wonder, Right i'm not saying the horse isn't. SOUND i

360
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 2: just don't. Know and so that's the reason why he's

361
00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,320
Speaker 2: not gonna be a top win. Contender But i'm also

362
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 2: not gonna let him beat me because you, know for

363
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,400
Speaker 2: the for those that follow, Right Mike, ropoli who's the

364
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 2: owner Of, Forte, Right micropoli is A New york. Guy last,

365
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 2: Year micropole won The belmont with modonegall and at the

366
00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,600
Speaker 2: time he said that that was the most important race

367
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 2: for him to, win being A New york. Guy so

368
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,080
Speaker 2: you know that this race means something to these. Connections

369
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 2: so you Know i'm not gonna leave him off the.

370
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 2: Ticket So i'm three four and uh and fort as

371
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 2: my as my top win, contenders and my top selection

372
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 2: will be number Three, Archangelo yeah fourte the number six

373
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 2: The New York course trained By Todd, pletcher owned By

374
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 2: micropole five to two favorite on the morning line Top

375
00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,520
Speaker 2: plutcher also has the second, choice the number two Tap It,

376
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 2: traces we discussed at three to. One but even though

377
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 2: we don't have a lot of consensus Throughout friday And,

378
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 2: saturday we do have slight consensus here in The Belmont.

379
00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 2: Stakes guys both tossing the five in the. Nine they

380
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,960
Speaker 2: both like the three to six and the eight as

381
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 2: top wing, contenders And kanti is also going to use

382
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 2: the number four because nobody likes to get beat By Bob.

383
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 2: Baffert when these cards close out and you have a

384
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 2: lot of money riding on the, line let's back up

385
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,959
Speaker 2: just a second before we get to the, undercard, bets

386
00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,400
Speaker 2: figure out the horses you're going to use. Underneath there's

387
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 2: not a lot of, options, certainly and we've already tossed

388
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 2: the five and nine at fifteen to one and thirty

389
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:28,280
Speaker 2: to one as potential long shot, candidates so doesn't leave

390
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 2: much on the board in terms of top long shot.

391
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 2: Contenders but if you guys had to key around one

392
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 2: specific horse in terms of building your exactas your trifectas

393
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 2: that aren't your top wing. Contenders where are you, Going,

394
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 2: Kanti i'm going to start with you. First i'm actually

395
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 2: going to go to a horse that you mentioned before

396
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 2: who hasn't really been getting all the buzz in terms

397
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 2: of the workout, reports a number seven Hit. SHOW i

398
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 2: thought That Hit show was frankly a little bit more

399
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,639
Speaker 2: forwardly placed THAN i expected him to be in The.

400
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 2: Derby you, know he ran pretty much three four wide

401
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 2: that entire. RACE i thought that it looked like that

402
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 2: on the far turn in The, derby that he looked

403
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,959
Speaker 2: like he was in prime position and just clearly didn't

404
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,879
Speaker 2: have it that. DAY i do think that he has,

405
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 2: something though to give in this, race and again a

406
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:20,160
Speaker 2: horse that doesn't need to be too far. Back we've

407
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 2: belabored the point of the pace in this, race but

408
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 2: not a deep, closer but yet can have and has

409
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 2: shown a closing. Kick maybe he just didn't Like, Churchill

410
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 2: i'm not entirely, sure but at ten to, One brad

411
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 2: Cox Manny Franco, man he's been on this, horse you,

412
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 2: know three other times, before including a, Win so that

413
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,480
Speaker 2: would be a top long shot THAT i would look

414
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 2: to use underneath in my Vertical.

415
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,400
Speaker 3: Exotics as a tap it mare as.

416
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 5: Well would you certainly like to see for getting the

417
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 5: mile and a Half Mike samich top Long shot or

418
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 5: top you know horse the key underneath an exotics for?

419
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,360
Speaker 1: YOU i mean for, me it's two, horses and we've

420
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 1: already talked about both of. Them you have to figure

421
00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: out how to inject some price into The triple and

422
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,119
Speaker 1: The superfecta and the Three arcangelo sitting at eight to

423
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: one for all the reasons we've discussed. Before if you're

424
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 1: not putting them on, TOP i think that's a very

425
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,199
Speaker 1: logical horse to be using it a little bit of a,

426
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,160
Speaker 1: price And Hit show it would be the other one

427
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,679
Speaker 1: for me as. WELL i had a seventy five to

428
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 1: one derby ticket On Hit. Show this is one of

429
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: those horses WHICH i picked out a while, ago and

430
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,159
Speaker 1: you go back and you look at his races and

431
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,359
Speaker 1: you can kind of poke holes in them on, paper

432
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,919
Speaker 1: but when you watch them on the, replays they're significantly.

433
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:25,640
Speaker 1: Better we talked About Hit show going into The. Derby

434
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,080
Speaker 1: it's a HORSE i used in My SUPER i Think

435
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,400
Speaker 1: Mike conti used him As super as. Well horse ends

436
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 1: up running. Fifth thanks disarmed for killing the Super but

437
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,600
Speaker 1: this was one of those Where Hit show if you

438
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 1: go back and you specifically watch the race two back

439
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 1: The Wood memorial going a mile and an eighth ends

440
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,680
Speaker 1: up running. Second There Lord miles wins at a monster.

441
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,320
Speaker 1: Price but that day was the thirteen horse broke twelve

442
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 1: out of. Twelve has butt swung out on the first

443
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 1: turn going five, wide was four wide on the second,

444
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 1: turn and played bumper cars down the. Lane there was

445
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 1: a ton of trouble, there AND i agree With. MIKE

446
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 1: i think he was too close to the. PACE i

447
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 1: think the connections wanted him forwardly, placed and the clock

448
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 1: in the head There Manny franco may not have been

449
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: as good as they had, helped and so he was

450
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: fowardly placed in near half a hot pace and yet

451
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: still was able to hang. OUT i thought him and

452
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: Two phills both ran very good races to run second

453
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 1: and fifth in The. Derby yet it doesn't look as

454
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 1: good on paper because he ran. Fifth and SO i

455
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 1: think that getting ten to one On Hit show is

456
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 1: an advantage. Here and we talked About Brad cox having

457
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 1: that rabbit on the. Rail if If tapachuw's does Play

458
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,679
Speaker 1: Rabbit Hit show's the one that's going to benefit from.

459
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 1: This the three and the seven should be sitting right

460
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 1: behind the one and the four and the five who

461
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 1: are going.

462
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 2: To be out.

463
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 1: Early those two get the best trip, here AND i

464
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 1: think both of them are live to hit the, board

465
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,679
Speaker 1: and they're the way you spice this thing. Up with

466
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 1: eight to one and ten to, one.

467
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 5: The guy to sort these horses into a's and, B'S

468
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 5: i would put your top line the a's between you

469
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,879
Speaker 5: two at, three, six and, eight and then THE b

470
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 5: line at the four and the seven With National treasure

471
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:47,600
Speaker 5: And Hit.

472
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 4: Show hi, there, Listeners we're back to invite you to

473
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,879
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496
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Speaker 5: People we will talk, about you, know specific ways you

497
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 5: want to bet this. RACE i know it's Still. Wednesday

498
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 5: we have a couple of days to think about. TICKETS

499
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 5: i put out my tickets like two hours before these

500
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 5: races Because i'm crunching the numbers AND i feel Like

501
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 5: charlie in The It's Always sunny meme going, crazy you,

502
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 5: know in front of the, whiteboard AS i build out my,

503
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 5: tickets but as Of wednesday, Afternoon Mike salmich any tickets

504
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 5: that you think you'll definitely be playing On saturday for

505
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 5: The Belmont, STAKES.

506
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: I will have a superfected, ticket which is a single

507
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 1: To forte on top With, Arcangelo Hit show And Angel

508
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 1: vampire in the second third and four spots for five.

509
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 1: Bucks that will cost me thirty, Dollars So i'll have

510
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: that superfected ticket for. SURE i will probably have a

511
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: superfected ticket With arcangelo And forte as a two on,

512
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 1: top BECAUSE i do think if you can Get arcangelo in,

513
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 1: there that's going to juice out the. PAYOUTS i really

514
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,199
Speaker 1: like this pick four. Sequence you Get cody's wish in

515
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 1: the first, race SO i think is a reasonable. Single

516
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 1: the second, race you have up to The mark and

517
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: Two europeans For apple b both coming. IN i think

518
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 1: those are the really the only three contenders. THERE i

519
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 1: Like arcangelo And forte, here and my best bet on

520
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: The saturday card is actually in the last, Race spirit

521
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: Of Saint louis For Chad, brown trying to turf for

522
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: the first, time drew the. RAIL i think that horse

523
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: is five to two in the morning. Line should be

524
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 1: closer to even. Money SO i have two singles in

525
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 1: that that late pick, four AND i have two other

526
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 1: pretty big opinion. Races so for, ME i think that

527
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: the late pick four is exceptionally playable if you do

528
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 1: want to Play cody's wish who is the one into

529
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 1: up to the? Mark who is the? Eight and the

530
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: three and the four in that race are both The,

531
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 1: Europeans and then you play six to three here in

532
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 1: The belmont and you close it out with singling the

533
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: one in the final? Race good.

534
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 5: Stuff, Yeah i'm gonna have you just recap that ticket

535
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 5: one more time and we get back Through saturday's undercard

536
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 5: races and then close it out with you, KNOW i

537
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 5: guess it's a it's a post.

538
00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: Limb the thirteenth race ON.

539
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 5: Sat is that where we're gonna refer to it as

540
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 5: it's the race that they stick on the cards of

541
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 5: some people stay around and alleviate some of the traffic

542
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 5: Leaving Belmont, park Which i've been in before and is

543
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 5: an absolute. Nightmare MIKE conti any tickets directly connected to

544
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 5: The belmont For saturday that you know you'll be, Playing, yeah.

545
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 2: So i'm definitely going to be playing a Super i'm

546
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 2: going to Single arcangelo on. Top i'm going to Use National,

547
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 2: Treasure angel Of, empire fourte And Hit show in the, two,

548
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 2: three and four, Spots so a little bit more expensive

549
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: Than samich's ticket, there but by Singling arcangelo on, top

550
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 2: it also should extract if that comes in much more

551
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 2: value there for. Me so that's going to be the

552
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: big one That i'm going to. Play and Then i'm

553
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 2: just going to play a straight COLD exacta Where i'm

554
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 2: gonna Play arcangelo over FOURT a BECAUSE i do think

555
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: for all the reasons that we've mentioned that you can't

556
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: Leave forte out of, It and SO i will be

557
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: Singling forte in that second, spot right And arcangelo in

558
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: the top spot for a cold exact in The Belmont. Stakes,

559
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,959
Speaker 2: Yeah i'm, hoping you, know the rest of the public

560
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 2: and other handicappers out there are not as high On

561
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 2: arcangelo as you two, are just BECAUSE i don't want

562
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: the opinion on him from the public perspective getting so

563
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: high that everybody's betting. HIM i was very high In,

564
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: arcangelo even eight eight to. ONE i, SAID i expected

565
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: something closer to ten to, one twelve to, one maybe

566
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: even fifteen to. One but you, know if the rest

567
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,719
Speaker 2: of the consensus is as high on him as Ut,

568
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 2: ARE i don't know if it'll ever get.

569
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: There let's back up To.

570
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 5: Friday because we have plenty of great races Throughout Belmont

571
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 5: stakes Weekend Gold Cup friday At Belmont. Park The Gold

572
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 5: cup is race, ten but. PLENTY i believe there's Three

573
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,400
Speaker 5: grade one, stakes Two grade two stakes On. Friday Mike,

574
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 5: SAMICH i want to go to you. First don't have

575
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 5: to give me a multi race. Sequence just any best

576
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 5: bets that you have On friday's, undercard in, particular any

577
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 5: horses that you're going to say and try to build

578
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 5: your multi race tickets.

579
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 2: Around.

580
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 1: YEAH i got two horses THAT i like quite a.

581
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 1: Bit the first one to me is a stone cold

582
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: single race. Six this is a sixty two thousand dollars

583
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 1: non winter or two optional. Allowance the two Horse rockney

584
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 1: coming in here For Michael Maker lescano gets them. Mount

585
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: this is just a pure loan speed. Play we're going

586
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: six furlongs On belmont's. Dirt there is no one that

587
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: can go With. ROCKNEY i don't think that anyone can

588
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 1: even really Press. Rockney and if when you have a

589
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,400
Speaker 1: horse who is a length to two lengths loose At belmont,

590
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 1: sprinting who has shown the ability to continue moving when they. Sprint,

591
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,640
Speaker 1: well that's a horse that you want to be. Using

592
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 1: is a four year old who is two for three

593
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: over The belmont. Surface the other race ended up running

594
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: second four for six at the distance three to. ONE

595
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 1: i think is a. Gift we'll see if we actually

596
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 1: get that on race. Day i'm expecting more around the

597
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 1: nine to five, mark But rockney in the sixth for,

598
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: me is a stone cold. Single then the other, race

599
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 1: WHERE i think you can take a. Shot this is

600
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 1: more of a little bit of a long. Shot but

601
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: the eighth race, here The grade One New, york really tough.

602
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 1: Race you get the deal in here who ran really

603
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: well on the on The derby, undercard but taking a

604
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: step up in. Class and Then Warlike, goddess who just

605
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: a phenomenal. Horse she's been amazing for the last two.

606
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: Years For billmont And joel A lazario six to five

607
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: favorite on the morning, Line i'm gonna go to a

608
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: little bit of an up and, comer, Though i'm gonna

609
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 1: go to the four horse market, segmentation WHO i think

610
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: will control the. Pace in this, race you're getting six

611
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 1: to one For Chad brown And Jose. ORTIZ i wouldn't

612
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: completely Chuck Warlike, goddess BUT i think you got to

613
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 1: include market. Segmentation who will either be in the lead

614
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: or sitting in second. Place it's a four year old

615
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: who just keeps getting. Better AND i like this the

616
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: fact That Chad brown takes a shot here at a

617
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: mile and a. Quarter and if we're gonna Beat Warlike,

618
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 1: goddess who has been dominated a mile and a, HALF

619
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 1: i think the mile and a quarter distance in speed

620
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: is the way to do. It so market. Segmentation the

621
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 1: four in the eighth race On friday with the other

622
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: Horse i'm looking.

623
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 5: At seeing that horse's name written out as one word

624
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 5: breaks the brain a little. Bit not gonna, lie But

625
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 5: Chad brown has four of the eight in that. Field

626
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,719
Speaker 5: and just to recap race, Six Mike somich Likes rottney

627
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 5: and then in race eighth and before market, Segmentation mike

628
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 5: Conti Friday undercard, bets favorite, bets horses you're singling using

629
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 5: in multi race, tickets keying on are you feel not

630
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:10,719
Speaker 5: A Friday's?

631
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 3: Card, Yeah i'm gonna.

632
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: Give you one Horse sewan because there's one horse THAT

633
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 2: i really like AND i think is at a pretty square.

634
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: Price and then a race that we haven't talked about.

635
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 2: Yet gonna go to race, nine which is The Eggcorn,

636
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: steak and in The ACORN i really like number eight A.

637
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 3: Seed she's coming in.

638
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 2: OFF i don't think it was a bad race in

639
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: the Eight, BELLS i don't think it was great, Either

640
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: but she's stretching out in distance to run a route.

641
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 3: For the first time in her.

642
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 2: Career, Listen Chad brown doesn't put his horses in places

643
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 2: where they can't, win, Right and in this, spot, yes

644
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: you have some horses in. Here you, Know Mounning's gold pretty, mischievous.

645
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 2: Right you've got some other horses in here who we've

646
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: seen a lot on this you, Know Kentucky oaks type,

647
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 2: trail Dorth vader as. Well AND i just think that

648
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 2: you're gonna be able to see the eight to seed

649
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 2: sit a really nice. Trip she's stretching out in, distance

650
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: LIKE i, mentioned AND i just think that this is

651
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 2: a race where we can continue to see her. Improve

652
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 2: it's only her third career, start so it's not in.

653
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: Predit you, know it's not some huge mystery. Here it's

654
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 2: just something where it's, like, okay if she can continue

655
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: to improve as she's gained, experience this could be a

656
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: horse at a really square price that you can build

657
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 2: some really nice multi race tickets around. With taking a

658
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 2: big shot at a single in this eight horse a

659
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 2: seed at eight.

660
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 5: To one good you want a nice single single. Double

661
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 5: you could play The Chad brown double the number four

662
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 5: market segmentation in race, eight and then the number eight

663
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 5: a seed in race. Nine that would give you a

664
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 5: pretty nice payout if they cashed at six to one

665
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 5: and eight to one respectively on the morning. LINE i

666
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 5: do want to get both of your thoughts on The Gold,

667
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 5: cup whether you have direct thoughts on horses you want

668
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 5: to use in A Gold Cup Belmont stakes, double whether

669
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 5: there is a the preference you have between The european

670
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 5: horses and The american horses in this. Field the favorite

671
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 5: the number Two siscani at eight to five is A british,

672
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 5: horse but even channel maker eight to one bunch Of

673
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 5: american horses are pretty lower on the odds board usually

674
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 5: see the euros a bit shorter in, price and amongst

675
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 5: all of the favorites in, here it's actually a decent.

676
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 5: Spread MIKE conti going to you. First you know you

677
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 5: may not have specific thoughts on this, rate but at any,

678
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 5: leans at this point in, time that we could maybe

679
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 5: connect to The Belmont.

680
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: Stakes, YEAH i, mean, listen you know you said right

681
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 2: in number, TWO i mean Anytime charlie Apple be sends a,

682
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: horse AND i Think i've said this in the past

683
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 2: on this, podcast but anytime That charlie Apple be sends

684
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 2: a horse over to us terfer us soil in, general

685
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 2: you know that that runner is going to be. Live

686
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 2: you know that that runner is, prepped it's. Ready you

687
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: know that horse is ready to.

688
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 3: Go so excuse.

689
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 2: Me the number, Two, SISCANNE i think you, know very

690
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 2: live horse to be. Using the other horse, though THAT

691
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 2: i thought was interesting is the number. Seven amazing grace

692
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 2: at six to, one, right this horse has run over

693
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: this ground At. Belmont, granted albeit it was a good turf,

694
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: course not a firm, course which we should get this,

695
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: weekend that was only the horse's SECOND us. Start Chris

696
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 2: clemont always seems to get his runners ready for these big,

697
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 2: races especially on the, turf and especially these long turf.

698
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 3: Races, listen we've talked about time and time.

699
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 2: Again this has not Been joel's. Year he has been

700
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,719
Speaker 2: performing a little bit better at this, meet and, frankly

701
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 2: when he's been performing the best is when he's been

702
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 2: teaming up With clemont on the. Turf SO i do

703
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: think that the number Seven Amazing grace is very interesting

704
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 2: at a nice price of six to.

705
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 5: One so the two and the seven For conti in

706
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 5: The Gold, cup with maybe the, three, six four and

707
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 5: then eight in The Belmont. Stakes Mike Samich greer disagree

708
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 5: on the two and the seven in The Gold, cup

709
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 5: which is race, ten five forty seven pm post On,

710
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 5: friday than any other ones you're considering.

711
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: USING i Think siscany is going to be tough. HERE

712
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: i mean you go two Back gloss by a neck to,

713
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 1: broom a very good. Horse when you this is one

714
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: of those that is just facing upper tier class over

715
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: In europe and now shipping over here For Charlie applebee

716
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: And buick's taking them out as, well you know That

717
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: siscani is gonna run. Well definitely a deserving favorite here

718
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: and the horse THAT i have on top two other

719
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: HORSES i think are worth. USING i looked At Amazing.

720
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: GRACE i have amazing grace. UNDERNEATH i think fourth or

721
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: fifth type spot in this. Race i'm not going to

722
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: put amazing grace on. TOP i do think the eleven

723
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: high definitions. Interesting this is a horse that was trained

724
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: By aidan O'Brien back in twenty twenty two and danced

725
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: all the, dances including running against baid And mistriff At Royal.

726
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: ASCOT i believe it was or No Is. York i'm

727
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 1: sorry where her? Face both to those switched over to

728
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: the sun. Right joseph, O'Brien who has had some success

729
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: shipping over here to THE, us gets Jose ortiz to

730
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: take them. Out this is A galileo. Horse galileo likes

731
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: these longer, distances and this horse has succeeded at two

732
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: miles before getting eight to one in the morning line

733
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: on the eleven high definition WHO i think make think

734
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: makes some? Sense and then just from a pure pace,

735
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: play if you want to get, wonky the four tide

736
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: of The sea is gonna be, loose so you're gonna

737
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: get your heart. Racing it's just question when you get

738
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: your heart broken, right because it probably not good enough to,

739
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: win but is gonna be in the lead for a

740
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: really long, time and SO i don't hate the idea

741
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: of just playing a little bit of A saver double

742
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 1: into forte Or savor double Into archangelo using the four

743
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: who is just? Dead loan speed here going two?

744
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 5: Miles how deep we talked about a structure last, Time

745
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 5: samich and you gave such good, information you, know regarding

746
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 5: single race. Exotics when you're doing a two day, double

747
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 5: how deep are you willing to? Go you, know your

748
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 5: top choices are technically the favorites in both, races or

749
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 5: you're gonna press up an opinion on the two favorites

750
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 5: in a. Single do you think that's like not worth

751
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 5: enough value even if it. Hits would you rather try

752
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 5: to single in one of the races and then hit

753
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 5: a price in? Another how what's your preferred way to

754
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 5: play those two day?

755
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: DOUBLES i will probably not play this two day. DOUBLE

756
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: i don't like daily doubles going. FAVORITE i think it

757
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: absolutely kills the value of the. Double if you can

758
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: get around one of the two, favorites generally there is

759
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: value in. It if you go favorite, favorite it generally

760
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: does not have much. Value So i'll look at the,

761
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 1: Board i'll see what the prices are and what the

762
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: implied odds will be on forte off of playing the

763
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: two assist can here in front of. It but my

764
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 1: plan going into the weekend is not to play this.

765
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: Double IF i, DID i would probably be playing the

766
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 1: eleven to three and not playing it for a, lot

767
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: just taking a. Swing If i'm getting like sixty to,

768
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,800
Speaker 1: one fifty to, one something like. That i'm playing the

769
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: eleven here with the three because you're getting eight to

770
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: one on both morning, lines So i'll take a peek at.

771
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: That and IF i think there is exponential, value Meaning

772
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 1: i'm getting over ten to one on both of, them

773
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: so a dollar would have to pay at least one

774
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 1: hundred to, one Then i'll probably throw a couple bucks on.

775
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: It but as of, Now i'm not planning on playing

776
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 1: it BECAUSE i don't play favorite favorite doubles. Generally great.

777
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 5: Stuff let's move on To saturday's, card The Belmont Stakes,

778
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,399
Speaker 5: undercard same.

779
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: Deal you know It's.

780
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 5: WEDNESDAY i don't expect you to have all of your tickets,

781
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 5: Together but any horses that you're planning on building Your saturday,

782
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 5: around any races you're really keying in, On Mike, samich your,

783
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,439
Speaker 5: Thoughts First Spirit Saint.

784
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: LOUIS i mentioned thirteenth race At belmont is a state

785
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 1: RED n one x. Allowance this horse has tried the

786
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: dirt twice but yet to touch the. Turf it's A

787
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 1: magna de'orro lemon drop kid on the. Bottom this horse

788
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: should absolutely love the. Turf ran very well in the first,

789
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 1: race his first, race one by eight lengths At, aqueduct

790
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 1: going a mile stretched. OUT i just wasn't able to

791
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: get By Olympic dreams late going a mile in an.

792
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 1: Eighth BUT i think turf is the preferred. DISTANCE i

793
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 1: love the post. Position this is A Chad brown that

794
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 1: has tactical, speed so it's not like we're going to

795
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: be forever off the. Pace SO i think the One

796
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: spirit Of Saint louis in the thirteenth is going to

797
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: be ultra tough to get around other. HORSE i like

798
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: it a little bit of a. Price let's go to

799
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: the sixth race, here it's the, marathon and this is

800
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: a race where generally you don't have a ton of,

801
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 1: pace but in this version of, it you've got like

802
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: four or five horses that want to, go including two

803
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 1: of them in the four in the five horse, Here

804
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 1: Bright future and next who both have a very fast

805
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: early time for. Ratings both want to go quickly up.

806
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 1: Front we're talking like the four has gone forty five

807
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: and changed the last two times going a half. Mile

808
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,240
Speaker 1: you can't do that going a mile and a. HALF

809
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 1: i think it sets up exceptionally well for the two

810
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 1: Horse Red, one who is six to one on the morning,

811
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 1: line stretched out to a mile and a half for

812
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: the first time last time. Out but the key for

813
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: me here is how well we have done inside the

814
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: Mic maker. Barn Mike maker is exceptional at claiming these

815
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 1: horses and stretching them out on the. Turf he's also

816
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 1: pretty darn good at it doing it on the. Dirt

817
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,959
Speaker 1: we saw him claim this horse for fifty thousand and three,

818
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,240
Speaker 1: back runs it back with a sixty thousand dollars. Allowance

819
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 1: you see a nice little improvement best career, race and

820
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:35,479
Speaker 1: then runs it back at a mile and a half

821
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: on the undercard On churchhill weekend run second To warrant

822
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: at twelve to, one pops a career best. Buyer now

823
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: you're getting, Third Mike. Maker they're. Out Mike maker and

824
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 1: we talked about the breeding in The. Belmont this is

825
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: a gun runner on the top and a tap it

826
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 1: mayre on the. Bottom that mile and a half distance

827
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 1: should hit it right between the. Eyes you're getting the

828
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: pace setup and you're getting the right, price so that

829
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: the two Horse red run six to one on the

830
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: morning line in The grade Two, brooklyn the sixth race On,

831
00:36:58,200 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 1: SATURDAY i think is awfully.

832
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 5: LIVE i like The brooklyn quite a. Bit it is

833
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 5: the same distance as The Belmont. Stakes you don't See

834
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 5: american dirt runners go a mile and a half very,

835
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 5: often but this is for the older horses four year

836
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 5: old and, up so same distance as The. Belmont kind

837
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 5: of a fun. RACE i will definitely be Betting red

838
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 5: run alongside.

839
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: You Mike.

840
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 5: SAMICH i just want to go back to The hillendale

841
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 5: met mile race ten because you mentioned earlier you are

842
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 5: going to Single cody's wish and to pick four to

843
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 5: close out your card that also ends with the number

844
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 5: One spirit Of Saint louis and race.

845
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: Thirteen is that? Correct, Yeah i'm gonna play a pick

846
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 1: four that's just one with, three, four eight with, three

847
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: six with, one And i'll probably play it one with

848
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 1: eight with six with one or a nice chunk of

849
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 1: change and just single all four of. Them and see

850
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: if we can get it's not gonna look if it

851
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: goes one eight six, one it's probably four. Favorites BUT

852
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: i think you're gonna get enough people spreading in that

853
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: pool that if you play it for twenty five bucks,

854
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 1: cold it's still very much worthwhile.

855
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 3: PLAYING i like that quite a.

856
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 5: Bit that sounds like a fun way to play the

857
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 5: final four races On saturday's, card and that would. Start

858
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 5: that bet would start at five oh four pm and

859
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 5: you'd be playing a pick. Four MIKE Conti Saturday's, Undercard saturday's.

860
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 5: Postlam if you have any thoughts in race, thirteen how

861
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 5: are you connecting the dots to get to The bellmont

862
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 5: or maybe playing pick fours pick five's before we get.

863
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 2: There So i'm actually gonna play a pick five before

864
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 2: we get there that ends in The. BELMONT i, will

865
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 2: for you, know with some, fun BECAUSE i do agree

866
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,839
Speaker 2: With mike THAT i really do like the one In race,

867
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 2: Thirteen Saint Joe, Louis SO i do really like that.

868
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 2: Horse But i'm gonna go with the all grade one

869
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 2: pick five sequence that ends in The. Belmont so starts

870
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 2: in race eight in The Woody. Stevens and this is

871
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 2: Where i'm going to actually try to extract some serious

872
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: value out of. Here my top pick in here Is

873
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 2: gilmore number twelve at twelve to. One this horse ran

874
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 2: in The Pat Day, mile and if you watch.

875
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 3: Where this horse, was the horse was always three to.

876
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: Four, wide and then on the as everybody fanned, out

877
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 2: this horse has pushed like it says eight wide on the,

878
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 2: paper but if you go in THE, pps if you

879
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: go look and you start counting, pats it's like ten or.

880
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: TWELVE i, mean it's really. Wide AND i think that there's,

881
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: frankly there's more PACE i believe in here today in

882
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 2: The Woody stevens than there wasn't The Pat Day, mile

883
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 2: which only Favors gilmore based on running. Style and so you,

884
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 2: know this is the second time That irad will be

885
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 2: a Board gilmore in, here AND i just think that

886
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 2: this horse at twelve to one is really interesting to.

887
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 2: Me SO i will also be Using General jim And Fort,

888
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 2: bragg who were the first and second place finishers in

889
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 2: That Pat day mile as, Well but so basically those

890
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 2: three coming out of The Pat DAY i really. Like

891
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 2: gilmour at twelve to one is a really interesting play to, me,

892
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 2: though AND i think a great way to start this

893
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 2: pick five with some. Value then you get to raise.

894
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 2: Nine this is tough because, honestly this is a spot

895
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: where you have to wonder from The caravel can why

896
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 2: are they running here and not going to ascot?

897
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 3: Right and so Is.

898
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 2: Caravell just no longer in top? Form she's run against

899
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,720
Speaker 2: the boys and beat the boys plenty of times. Before

900
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 2: you just, wonder, though why not ship? Right are they

901
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 2: worried that shipping takes too much out of? Her i'm

902
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: not entirely. Sure i'm not gonna let her beat, me

903
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 2: especially in multi race. Bets the, horse, though THAT i

904
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:32,720
Speaker 2: think was interesting to me AT i think a fair

905
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 2: price is number Eleven Cosa creed at nine to. Two

906
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,320
Speaker 2: the horse has shown, that you, know he Loves. Belmont

907
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 2: he has three wins over The belmont turf, course and,

908
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 2: frankly he's a horse THAT i think is he's gotten,

909
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 2: older he's just gotten, better and so a horse that you,

910
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,720
Speaker 2: KNOW i think can really stand a chance to Beat

911
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 2: caravel if if there are others in, here which it

912
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 2: looks like there, are that are going to try to

913
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 2: go With, Caravell Cossa creed's going to be the one

914
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,360
Speaker 2: trying to pick up those pieces. Late in the ninth,

915
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 2: race the DRIPER i will be Using caravel And Cosa.

916
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 2: Creed In race, TEN i will be Singling cody's Wish.

917
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 2: LISTEN i didn't Have cody's wish as my top selection

918
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 2: On Derby day but in The churchill Downs grade.

919
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:19,879
Speaker 3: One BUT i.

920
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 2: Also didn't see as much pace as there was in that,

921
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 2: race and there's way more pace in this race today

922
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 2: than there was that, day AND i just Think cody's

923
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 2: wish is far. Superior i'm not worried about the one.

924
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 2: Post he's actually getting a little bit more. Distance he's

925
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 2: won at a mile, before so not worried about. THAT

926
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 2: i mean he's won six times at a, mile so

927
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: not worried about that. WHATSOEVER i think he's just. DOMINANT

928
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 2: i frankly think we're going to be lucky if we

929
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 2: get seven to. Five SO i will Single cody's wish

930
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 2: there in the eleventh, race probably to nobody's, surprise because

931
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 2: he was my best bet on the undercard On Derby

932
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 2: day as. Well i'm going right back to the well

933
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 2: and up to the, mark similar To. Tasamich i'm also

934
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 2: going to single up to the mark in this, spot

935
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 2: which is, where which is Why i'm trying to extract

936
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: value a little bit in the earlier races, Here SO

937
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 2: i will be singling up to the mark in. Here

938
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 2: he's eight to. Five, LISTEN i think we all know

939
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 2: by now right he's found his excuse, me his preferred.

940
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 2: Surface AND i think that he's just coming into his

941
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 2: own overall as a. Horse he's just continuing to. Progress and,

942
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: FRANKLY i don't think that there's a ton of world

943
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 2: beaters in here to begin with eight to, five even

944
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 2: even MONEY i would be betting him to win at

945
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 2: at this. Point BUT i will be singling him in

946
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 2: the pick five and then in The, belmont right BECAUSE

947
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 2: i have those two singles at shorter prices. EARLIER i

948
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 2: don't mind in this pick five using four horses in,

949
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 2: here which will Be, Arcangelo National, Treasure angel Of empire And.

950
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 3: Forte. Yeah good.

951
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 5: Stuff and you, KNOW i think the eighth and the

952
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 5: ninth races On saturday's cart are the most difficult races

953
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 5: of the weekend. Handicaps SO conti gave you a pick

954
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 5: five that starts with a single in race. Eight samich

955
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 5: gave you a pick four that ends with a single

956
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 5: in race. Thirteen so if you want to find a

957
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:13,240
Speaker 5: way to Avoid race nine or having too much invested

958
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 5: in it because it is a very difficult race to,

959
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 5: handicap that might be the way to go about. It

960
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 5: play the late pick, four play the pick five that

961
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 5: starts in RaSE, eight and go. Shallow that'll do it for.

962
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 5: Us thank you for tuning in for the twenty twenty

963
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 5: Three Beaumont stakes preview presented By, FanDuel The Action network

964
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 5: Podcast we will see you back In november For Breeders Cup.

965
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 5: Weekend For Mike, samich For Mike, Conti I'm Sean.

966
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 1: Zarillo best of luck this.

967
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 3: Weekend hope you cashing.

968
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 4: Tickets Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

969
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,919
Speaker 4: or someone you care about has a gambling, problem help

970
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 4: is available twenty four to seven at one eight Hundred

971
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 4: gambler