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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome? Into?

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Speaker 2: A Wednesday morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast would

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Speaker 2: be Matt Parolt at Sports Talk Matt is Me on

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Speaker 2: Well All Socials. Twitter included this podcast being brought to

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Speaker 2: by BETMGM and the one thousand dollars first bet offer

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Speaker 2: for new users with the promo code Juice at betmgm

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Speaker 2: dot com. If you are in Massachusetts, welcome to the party.

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Speaker 2: That promo code Juice gets you two hundred dollars in

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Speaker 2: bonus bets without having to deposit at betmgm dot com

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Speaker 2: with the promo code Juice. So an oh and to

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Speaker 2: night last night down two point two units kind of frustrating.

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Speaker 2: Somebody said in the discord channel that Monday was a

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Speaker 2: lucky win. Well, if Monday was a lucky win, then

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Speaker 2: tonight's oh and two was unlucky because if Southeast Missouri

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Speaker 2: State didn't go six minutes without scoring, and if they

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Speaker 2: didn't shoot nine of twenty from the free throw line,

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Speaker 2: we most likely get the over in the first game.

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Speaker 2: The second game just was a brutal I knew it

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Speaker 2: was going to be ugly, not really sure it was

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Speaker 2: going to be that ugly. I got the minus three

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Speaker 2: number I was looking for, So I jumped in with

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M Corpus Christie, so I got that

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Speaker 2: bet right. Should have made that official. That should have

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Speaker 2: been the play. And then I should have taken Pitt

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Speaker 2: that was plus two and a half. That was the play.

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Speaker 2: I like that as well. So just unfortunately not really

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Speaker 2: a good overnight wagering for me. Should have done a

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Speaker 2: little more staying with totals, I guess on that. But

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Speaker 2: I'm right back here with some total bets here on

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Speaker 2: a Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: So you know what does that mean? Webout me?

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Speaker 2: I don't really know, but we've got I got one

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Speaker 2: bet in the NHL, I have one bet in the

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Speaker 2: NBA and one bet in college basketball. I have no

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Speaker 2: idea what to do with the Fairleigh Dickinson number. The

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Speaker 2: only reasonhy I bet the Corpus Christie game is because

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Speaker 2: Steve Lutz is a friend and I've worked with coach

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Speaker 2: for a long time and I've known him for literally,

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Speaker 2: you know, over a decade. So I was phenomenally happy

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Speaker 2: for him and sent them a text and I was

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Speaker 2: just so happy for him that he won that game.

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Speaker 2: He covered for me, which was great. They went by

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Speaker 2: four depending on what number you bet. They were four

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Speaker 2: and a half at open down to three and a

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Speaker 2: half at most books, and then right before the tip

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Speaker 2: off money came in on Southeast Missouri State, which again

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Speaker 2: I mean, I can't get. I had great closing line

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Speaker 2: value on both games last night, great closing line value.

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Speaker 2: I had two points minimum in both games depending on

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Speaker 2: your book. Didn't matter, right Steam, I mean, whether I'm

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Speaker 2: with Steam or against Steam, it doesn't really matter. I'll

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Speaker 2: say it again. I like it when the number doesn't move.

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Speaker 2: I prefer the number to stay right where it is

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Speaker 2: so I can do research, I can play off of it,

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Speaker 2: and I can bet, and I am perfectly comfortable being,

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Speaker 2: you know, betting games that nobody is betting, and the

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Speaker 2: number doesn't get touched, and it just goes the way

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Speaker 2: I wanted to go. If the number moves in my favor, great,

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Speaker 2: But in college basketball right now, it just feels like

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Speaker 2: when the number moves, just not on the right side.

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Speaker 2: Whether it helps me or hurt me, that number moves,

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Speaker 2: I'm like, uh, oh, that's not good. So we're down

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Speaker 2: one point two units on the week Long Way to Go.

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Speaker 2: I went with one bet on Monday, two bets on

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Speaker 2: Tuesday off three bets going, and then Thursday and Friday.

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Speaker 2: Obviously we'll get in really heavily. So here's the thing.

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Speaker 2: All right, if you haven't joined the Betting Pros and

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Speaker 2: gotta fill up my bracket tonight.

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Speaker 1: That reminds me. I gotta go ahead and do that

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Speaker 1: and fill my bracket, all right, So.

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Speaker 2: We'll work backwards in the order of what people are

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Speaker 2: going to be playing again.

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Speaker 1: I have no idea what to do with the first

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Speaker 1: game with Fairleigh Dickinson.

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Speaker 2: I'm two sixteen teens that I know very little about,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not entirely comfortable jumping in here, to be

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Speaker 2: quite honest, Texas Southern's been here quite a bit. I've

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Speaker 2: watched a bunch of Texas Southern's games when they're fourteen

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Speaker 2: and twenty.

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Speaker 1: What do you do with that?

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Speaker 2: I have absolutely no idea what you do with Texas Southern.

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Speaker 2: I have no idea what the books are going to

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Speaker 2: do with this. I have no clue what the pros

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Speaker 2: are going to do with this game. This is an

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Speaker 2: absolute no play for me. I just I can't wrap

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Speaker 2: my head around it. And I really I would love

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Speaker 2: to see, you know, an angle. Maybe it's a live bet,

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Speaker 2: maybe it's something that I want to take in game,

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Speaker 2: but I just can't. I can't put my brain around it.

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Speaker 2: The total, I mean the numbers two total was one

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Speaker 2: forty seven on this Texas Southern is eleven nineteen and

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Speaker 2: two ATS Fairley Dickinson is thirteen eight and one ATS.

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Speaker 1: No idea, no play, no knowledge.

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Speaker 2: So the previous host loves to talk about this and

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Speaker 2: not talking I'm not talking badly about Sean, but I

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Speaker 2: know Sean.

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Speaker 1: Ben's big on this trend.

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Speaker 2: And I've been joking around on Twitter about this trend

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Speaker 2: because Shawn didn't start it, but he's been pretty over

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Speaker 2: vocal about the first half unders in the n DOUBA Tournament.

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Speaker 2: It's like the catnip for Twitter right now, for betting Twitter,

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Speaker 2: It's first half unders in the n S DOUBLEA tournaments.

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Speaker 2: People around robbining it. You guys are on the Discord

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Speaker 2: channel saying, if you take out the one seed in

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Speaker 2: the two seed it hit at eighty percent last year

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Speaker 2: first half unders in the opening round. Yes, absolutely, go

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Speaker 2: fire on this. It's a good play. One in one

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Speaker 2: last night though, hypothetically, Okay, the game that both games

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Speaker 2: went under one first half over for pitt and Mississippi

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Speaker 2: State that went over sixty two.

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Speaker 1: It went over.

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Speaker 2: So it's not an automatic. Okay, it's not a sure

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Speaker 2: fire thing.

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Speaker 1: One in one.

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Speaker 2: A lot of games to go, but this game is

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Speaker 2: one game. I actually circled Arizona State and Nevada for

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Speaker 2: our first half under. I was watching this pulling some numbers,

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Speaker 2: and the numbers are pretty significant. Okay, So Arizona State

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Speaker 2: averages thirty two point four points per game this season

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Speaker 2: the first half. Nevada averages thirty two point eight. Okay,

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Speaker 2: you plug, you combine thirty two and thirty two, what

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Speaker 2: do you get sixty four? The first half total is

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Speaker 2: sixty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a new building, we've got jitters, we've

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Speaker 2: got nerves, but we also have a Nevada basketball team

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Speaker 2: that plays extremely slow. Nevada on offense, they have the

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Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty third right in the middle of

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Speaker 2: the pack, but pretty slow in comparison for average possession

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Speaker 2: length on offense. But on defense they make you work,

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Speaker 2: and I mean they make you work. They are three

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Speaker 2: hundred and fortieth for post sorry for per possession time

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Speaker 2: on defense. Okay, they're not looking to you know, they

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Speaker 2: are in your face. They play tenacious defense. They're going

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Speaker 2: to grind you and make you work the shot clock.

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Speaker 2: So when you have fresh legs, that's tremendous.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: The last three games for both teams, they've been averaging

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Speaker 2: twenty eight points per first half. Now that's fifty six points. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so that's well under But let's go through those games

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Speaker 2: for a seconds. So against San Jose State in the

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Speaker 2: in the Mountain West Tournament, twenty six points in the

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Speaker 2: first half scored by Nevada Against UNLV in the final

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Speaker 2: regular season game of the year, they scored twenty one points.

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Speaker 2: But against Wyoming, who was horrific on the year, they

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Speaker 2: scored thirty seven points in the first half. Okay, So

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Speaker 2: tournament game, neutral setting, they scored twenty six points. Last

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Speaker 2: time they went, they played out Arizona State in the

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Speaker 2: PAC twelve Championship Tournament. In the game that they lost,

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Speaker 2: they scored twenty eight points in the first half. In

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Speaker 2: the game that they won, they scored thirty nine points

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Speaker 2: in the first half.

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Speaker 1: That was against USC A little bit of a shocker.

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Speaker 2: Against Oregon State in their final home game, they scored

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Speaker 2: twenty nine points right on the road. This year, Arizona

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Speaker 2: State averaged thirty one points per game in the first half.

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Speaker 2: Nevada averaged thirty three point two points per game in

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Speaker 2: the first half. So we're right on this number of

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Speaker 2: sixty two and a half. This is gonna be sweaty,

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Speaker 2: all right. I'm not gonna sit there and tell you

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Speaker 2: that we're going to be coasting our way through a

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Speaker 2: dead under. I don't think it's gonna be like twenty one,

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Speaker 2: twenty two, twenty two or twenty two twenty one.

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Speaker 1: It's not gonna be.

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Speaker 2: Way under sixty two and a half. But there's a

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Speaker 2: chance that it's in the fifties. And I think it's

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Speaker 2: worth the bet. Okay, it's worth to come in. It's

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Speaker 2: minus one to ten on both sides to lay the

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Speaker 2: one one point one units down on Arizona State and

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Speaker 2: Nevada to take the under the first half sixty two

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Speaker 2: and a half. It's gonna be trendy. I think this

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Speaker 2: number will move. People will be all over it, the

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Speaker 2: books will need the over. Everyone in betting world and

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Speaker 2: betting Twitter is going to be on this. But this

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Speaker 2: was the game I was always gonna bet because I

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Speaker 2: just think I've watched Nevada play this year and they

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Speaker 2: grind and being a grinding type of team, I just

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Speaker 2: think this is one of those games where Nevada their

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Speaker 2: offense up against a good defensive team. I mean adjusted

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Speaker 2: defensive efficiency Arizona State twenty eighth in the country, Nevada

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Speaker 2: adjusted defensive efficiency forty third in the country. Nevada offense

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Speaker 2: is pretty good. It's pretty efficient, sixty one sixty first

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Speaker 2: an adjusted offensive efficiency. But field goal percentage effective field

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Speaker 2: goal percentage one hundred and ninetieth. That's not great against

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Speaker 2: Arizona State, whose effective field goal percent defense is twentieth.

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Speaker 2: So Arizona State tough to score on. Nevada's offense not phenomenal.

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Speaker 2: On the other side, Arizona State's effective fel goal percentage

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Speaker 2: is three hundred and eighth, and that's not good. Okay,

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Speaker 2: they don't take good shots, they don't make good shots.

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Speaker 2: Nevada's defense is one hundred and fourth in that category.

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Speaker 2: But three point percentage Arizona State thirty one point four

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Speaker 2: three point percentage, that's three hundred and fifteenth two point percentage.

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Speaker 2: It's forty seven point nine, that's two hundred and seventy fourth.

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Speaker 2: And free throw percentage Arizona State is sixty eight point nine,

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Speaker 2: that's two hundred and eighty eighth. Nevada hits their free throws.

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Speaker 2: They're six in the country hitting free throws. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we saw the first game where tons of free throws

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Speaker 2: got made by Corpus Christy and none got made by

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Speaker 2: Southeast Missouri State and we lost the over So you know,

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Speaker 2: you take that for what it is. But under sixty

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Speaker 2: two and a half first half under Arizona State and

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Speaker 2: Nevada in the second game of the Dayton nothing on

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Speaker 2: the first game in Dayton for the play in tournament. Okay,

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Speaker 2: NBA game talk about Kings and the Bulls. Yeah, you

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Speaker 2: might go MAT's going to the NBA. Well, look, two

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Speaker 2: forty is a total. I'm gonna look at Okay, if

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Speaker 2: I see two forty, two thirty nine, two forty, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna look at it because that is such a high number.

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Speaker 2: So we saw it with the Warriors in our game

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Speaker 2: against the Suns, where in the first half we saw

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Speaker 2: a nuclear performance, unbelievable performance by Klay Thompson. Second half

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Speaker 2: everything slowed down. Game did go under for us at

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Speaker 2: two thirty nine and a half. Kings Bulls total was

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Speaker 2: two thirty nine. Most totals for the Bulls at home

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Speaker 2: this year have been hovering around two twenty five, so

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Speaker 2: this is fourteen points higher. And you might go, well,

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Speaker 2: that's because the Kings matt The last time I bet

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Speaker 2: an under for the Kings on the road, that was

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Speaker 2: at the Clippers, in which the second highest scoring game

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Speaker 2: in NBA history took place. Just FYI, you want to

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Speaker 2: fade this, go right ahead, But the gambling gods only

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Speaker 2: one for me, missing that total by the largest margin

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Speaker 2: I have ever missed an NBA bet, and I think

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Speaker 2: it's the largest margin I've ever missed any bet ever.

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Speaker 2: One hundred and twelve and a half points. That's how

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Speaker 2: many points I missed this lat The bet wasvlving the

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Speaker 2: Clippers and the Kings. I bet under and it was

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve and a half. It was the

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Speaker 2: first game out of the break. But that's insanity, right,

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Speaker 2: it was like what one seventy six, one seventy five,

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Speaker 2: something like that.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it again. Here's why.

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Speaker 2: The Bulls are thirty eight and twenty nine to the

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Speaker 2: under on the year this season, but at home they're

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Speaker 2: twenty and thirteen to the under. The Kings are a

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Speaker 2: massive overteam at home, we know this, But on the road,

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Speaker 2: the Kings are twenty and twelve to the under, which

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Speaker 2: is really wild. This is the highest total for a

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Speaker 2: home game for the Bulls since they took on the

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Speaker 2: Spurs when it was two thirty nine, same total. That

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Speaker 2: game went under by seven points. I'm going to hope

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Speaker 2: that we don't see someone go crazy in this game

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Speaker 2: and that under again minus one ten one point one units.

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Speaker 2: I'm going under two thirty nine for the Kings and

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Speaker 2: the Bulls.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully the Bulls don't go.

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Speaker 2: Crazy, Hopefully they play defense and we don't see another

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Speaker 2: ridiculous missed by me by one hundred and twelve and

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Speaker 2: a half points. But again, I've talked about this before. Guys,

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Speaker 2: roller coaster ride. We go up, we go down. February

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Speaker 2: I was red hot. Couldn't have been hotter in February.

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Speaker 1: March.

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Speaker 2: I look, I might not be Okay, March might be

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Speaker 2: a scuffling month. I might be giving a lot of

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Speaker 2: units back. Okay, I've been giving units back last week.

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Speaker 2: We lost down this week. Just FYI. So again, I

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Speaker 2: tell you what I'm betting. If you want to fade me,

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Speaker 2: I don't care. Don't be a jerk about it, but

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Speaker 2: I don't care. I'm just giving you what I'm playing.

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Speaker 2: You want to play the opposite, That is fine. My

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Speaker 2: job is to give you the information that I'm playing.

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Speaker 2: You don't agree. Oh the other way that might be

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Speaker 2: the case for the hockey bet here tonight and so

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Speaker 2: wild in the Blues. How about this the Minnesota Wild,

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Speaker 2: a team that's made maybe more money on for us

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Speaker 2: since I've come back to the juice and anybody else?

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Speaker 2: To the under three and oh to the over over

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Speaker 2: their last three games, nine seven and six goals scored

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Speaker 2: in the three games involving the Wild. The Blues are

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Speaker 2: two and one to the over over their last three,

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Speaker 2: five and five over your last ten games at home.

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Speaker 2: This is flurry against Bennington. Floury's better on the road

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Speaker 2: than at home, but Benningon's got a three point one

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Speaker 2: goals against average and gave up four goals in the

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Speaker 2: five to three loss in Saint Louis. The first time

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Speaker 2: Minnesota played at Saint Louis, five to three game went

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Speaker 2: way over six. This is the last game of the

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Speaker 2: four game road trip from Minnesota. Three games have gone

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Speaker 2: over on this trip so far. I like betting streaks. Okay, Yes,

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Speaker 2: tired legs are a concern knocking in tonight and it'd

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Speaker 2: be like man last game before the road trip. That's

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Speaker 2: a little scary, Matt. Okay, I'll give you that. But

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis has scored, has been involved seven straight games.

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Speaker 2: Six goals or more have been scored in games involving

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis. So this is more of a play on

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis than it is a play on Minnesota. Minnesota

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Speaker 2: may only need to get two, they may give up five,

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Speaker 2: and it could be a five to two final. If

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Speaker 2: it's a four to two final, we push. And I'm

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Speaker 2: comfortable here because I've got even money on this to

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Speaker 2: the over six over five to three the first time

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00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,760
Speaker 2: these teams met three nothing in Minneapolis, but that's because

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Speaker 2: they play differently when they're at home. There on the road,

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Speaker 2: the Wild have been more wide open, and they have

320
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,080
Speaker 2: been really wide open on this you know, on this

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Speaker 2: current road trip.

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Speaker 1: It's wild to watch.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's a different type of team, but it's

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Speaker 2: going flying in the face of what the Wild have

325
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Speaker 2: been all year long. I thought about playing a first

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Speaker 2: period over Saint louis Is seven and three to a

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Speaker 2: gift goal in the first ten minutes, seven and three

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Speaker 2: to the over over their last ten games to over

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Speaker 2: one and a half goals. Thought about that, Yeah, couldn't

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Speaker 2: pull the trigger on it. It's tough to do that

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Speaker 2: with Minnesota. It's just I don't know, it's tough to

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Speaker 2: do that. They're still phenomenal if you want to talk

333
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Speaker 2: about Minnesota in the second period, they're still, you know,

334
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Speaker 2: a team that definitely takes a look at for going ahead.

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Speaker 2: And well, I guess, actually, you know what, they've been

336
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Speaker 2: nice cold lately. They were really good. They're still at

337
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Speaker 2: six two percent for this season over one and a

338
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Speaker 2: half goals in the second period, but they're hitting just

339
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Speaker 2: twenty percent over the last ten games eight two for

340
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,720
Speaker 2: ten rather over the last ten games for Minnesota, so

341
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Speaker 2: actually they have been great for that in the second period,

342
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 2: so that trend has changed for that. And you know,

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Speaker 2: the Wild are still the worst team in hockey to

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Speaker 2: a first period over just twenty six times in sixty

345
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,879
Speaker 2: six games, but five out of the last ten fifty

346
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 2: percent this has come in and gone over for them.

347
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Speaker 2: In Saint Louis. Has I said three and one, sorry,

348
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Speaker 2: seven and three rather to the over in a first period,

349
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Speaker 2: So you want to do better over one and a

350
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Speaker 2: half goals. You can do that if you want. And

351
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Speaker 2: the gift for Saint Louis as well has been a

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Speaker 2: pretty profitable bet to come in. It's kind of weird,

353
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Speaker 2: but there's seven and three to a goal in the

354
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Speaker 2: first ten minutes. That's why I'm betting over Blues, Wild

355
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,639
Speaker 2: over six even money here in hockey, all right. So

356
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 2: we are going under sixty two and a half Arizona

357
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Speaker 2: State in Nevada in the first half of the second

358
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:25,919
Speaker 2: game in Dayton, under two thirty nine kings in the

359
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Speaker 2: Bulls in the NBA, and over six goals for even

360
00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 2: money for the Wild and the Blues. All those bets

361
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: are to win one unit coming back. If we go

362
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,120
Speaker 2: two and three, sorry two and one, it's a winning night.

363
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Speaker 2: So let's go ahead and have another one. Let's get

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Speaker 2: back on the winning track after an zero and to

365
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Speaker 2: night yesterday minus Matt Parltz following me on Twitter at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt. Each and every morning it is They'll

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Speaker 2: Just podcast being brought to you by Bet.

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Speaker 1: I'm Jim