1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: The Conversation of the Day, Amy with Silverman, joins us 7 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 2: from the Royal Bank of Canada RBC Capital Markets. Amy, 8 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 2: you take the four cross moments and you bringing it 9 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: into the dispersion in the market, the huge variance of opinions. 10 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: How does one navigate the markets with such wide dispersion? 11 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 3: Hi, Tom, Yeah, it's a great question. It's one that 12 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: folks have been noodling on because when you do have 13 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 3: high dispersion in the market, so meaning some stocks are 14 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 3: going one way, others are going the other way, you 15 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: do have this effect of it kind of canceling out 16 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 3: on the index level and making signals like the VIX 17 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,680 Speaker 3: look lower than I think we feel it ought to be. Right, 18 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 3: you have closed the closed VIX hasn't even surpassed that twenty, 19 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: but we all feel the whiplash of those headlines and 20 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 3: part of the culprit for why it feels lower from 21 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 3: a volatility perspective, is that dispersion is so high, we 22 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 3: don't have this big correlated co move particularly during earning. 23 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: And now as we go into February, we have our 24 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 2: Hobbsey and double negative moment with Amy Woo Silverman. Amy, 25 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 2: is it what I do do in the market or 26 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 2: is what matter now? What I avoid, what I do 27 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 2: not choose to do. 28 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 3: You know, when you have these high dispersion environments, it 29 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 3: really really matters what you what you do do. And 30 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 3: you know, my favorite stat about this is you could 31 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 3: have the same level of vix tom, you could have 32 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 3: the same level s and P draw down, but in 33 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 3: a high dispersion environment, if you made the right stock 34 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 3: pick versus the wrong stock pick, you know, that outperformance 35 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: differential could really be huge. It really matters if you're 36 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 3: in the right sector. Is it really matters if you're 37 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 3: in the right stocks versus a high correlation environment where 38 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 3: it's all macro, we're all riding one wave. 39 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 2: She's like the Queen of active management. I mean, that's 40 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 2: what we're talking about here. Amy. 41 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,679 Speaker 4: There seems to be you know, now we have a 42 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 4: President Trump back in office. Here, the the headline risk 43 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 4: seems to be back into this market. How do you 44 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 4: suggest that investors hedge that? Should they hedge that, should 45 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 4: they not worry about it? Should they look through it? 46 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 5: What do you say? 47 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 3: You know, look, I, first of all, I don't drive, 48 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 3: but for some reason, I really like driving analogies and 49 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 3: my volatility outlook was called watch out for potholes. And 50 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 3: that's exactly what we're going to get. You know, when 51 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 3: you have someone like Trump in power, it's we're just talking. 52 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 3: There are these potholes you're going to get. It could 53 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 3: be like in August fifth, it could be like a 54 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 3: February twenty eighteen. You know, we got our fingers and 55 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 3: toes cross. But because of that, you know, I do 56 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 3: think hedging makes sense, and simply because the positioning has 57 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: gotten a lot more long after two consecutive twenty plus 58 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 3: percent s a p years, right, there's just more to hedge. 59 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 3: And we do see that starting to climb up in 60 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 3: the skw in Tom's favorite word, the Kurtross, you are 61 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 3: seeing that hedging demand rise much more than it has 62 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 3: in the past two years. 63 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 4: So I guess maybe one of the more recent headlines 64 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 4: risk has just been terrorists. Do your clients care about that? 65 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 4: Do they think it's a risk. Do they kind of 66 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 4: look through that and say, hey, it's just a negotiating tool. 67 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 4: We're not going to worry about the economic impacts. 68 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 3: You know, it's so funny when we have these kind 69 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 3: of macro client round tables. The most surprising kind of 70 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 3: anecdote I can tell you is clients just say that 71 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 3: they believe Trump will manage the stock market. And obviously 72 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: there's no sort of fundamental analysis there. But I can't 73 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 3: tell you how many times I've heard that that they 74 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 3: just think the stock market will be okay, that this 75 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 3: is all just part of a negotiation tactic. And that's 76 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 3: another reason why I think you don't see these volatiley 77 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 3: potholes kind of priced out to these fat or left 78 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: tails that you feel like they ought to be given 79 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 3: the headlines that you know, that is anecdotally what investors 80 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 3: keep telling me. 81 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,119 Speaker 2: I'm reading Roger Altman as I try to get into 82 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: the baseball season, one of his classic books from Here's Ago, 83 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: It's a Tigers in nineteen sixty eight. Norm cash ol 84 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 2: Kline amys Woo doesn't know what this is, but the 85 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 2: answer is the baseball analogy, Amy Wood. It sort of 86 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 2: like a batting average, thirty percent of the stocks go 87 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 2: up in seventy percent don't really participate. Which way are 88 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 2: we in that direction? Are we talking about fewer winners 89 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 2: in more malaise or the other way around? 90 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: You know, I really think investors hope it's the other 91 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 3: way around. And we've seen fits and starts of that, 92 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 3: right So, you particularly after the deep seek news, there 93 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 3: was this question of if Megacaptec's going to keep holding 94 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 3: us up? And when you saw that rotation, when that 95 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 3: Monday that news came out, where did we go to? 96 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 3: We went to all the breadth widening trades that have 97 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,040 Speaker 3: had fits and starts since last year. But I do 98 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 3: you think that's what investors still believe is their keystone 99 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 3: for this market being healthy. Of course, make a captech 100 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 3: has to be, okay, Tom, it's just too much of 101 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 3: a concentration not to be. But you know, small mid 102 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 3: cap or what breadth widening traits that that's still what 103 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 3: investors are really hoping for this market to be bowied 104 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: up to this year. 105 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 4: Amy, where do you see value in this market? I 106 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 4: think some people, you know, they're trying to get away 107 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 4: a little bit from maybe the mag seven kind of 108 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 4: concentration risk into this market looking for maybe some value 109 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 4: outside of that. 110 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 5: Where do you guys see that? 111 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 3: So one thing that we've talked about as one of 112 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 3: our pillars for hedging is because you have this index suppression, 113 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 3: you know SMP hedging may not necessarily be your best bet. 114 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 3: We have a lot of thematic baskets where we think 115 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 3: that hedging differential makes a lot of sense. So you know, 116 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 3: if you believe in I versus you don't believe in 117 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 3: an A actually using those thematic basket differentials and hedges 118 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 3: versus using your traditional tools. 119 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 2: Like we keep us out of suspense, I understand the 120 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 2: New York Mets are the attic basket, particularly after bringing 121 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 2: Alonzo on board. Give us an example, Amy with Silverman 122 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 2: of a thematic basket. 123 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 3: So we have a lot of them, and it's it's 124 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 3: sort of you know, it's very driven by clients. But 125 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 3: a good example is what stocks would benefit from AI continuing. 126 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 3: They don't necessarily have to be AI specific names. They 127 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 3: could be AI adjacent names like utilities. And then we 128 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 3: have the opposite, right, we have your traditional cyclical baskets. 129 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,480 Speaker 3: When you look at that differential TOM in the weighted 130 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 3: average applied volatilities. To me, that gives you a much 131 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 3: better sense of where risk is right now than just 132 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 3: purely using something like the SMP index. And we look 133 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 3: at those differentials really closely because it gives us a 134 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 3: sense much more of skew nowadays than just looking at 135 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 3: the index level. 136 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 2: Okay, well, where's the value trap right now? On a 137 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 2: quantitative basis when you look at the harmful you got 138 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 2: to hedge? And if you want to avoid a value trap, 139 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 2: how do you study that? And what do you avoid? 140 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 3: You know, I think what you avoid right now is 141 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 3: getting trapped in the dispersion on that index level. So 142 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 3: for instance, you know, if you are thinking about a 143 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: hedge right now, you may actually be better off with 144 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 3: idiosyncratic hedges because of where dispersion is than using something 145 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 3: like S and P or something that is much more 146 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 3: going to benefit if you get a pickup in correlation. 147 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 3: To me, that's the difference right now in this market 148 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 3: that wasn't true in a higher correlation environment. To me, 149 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 3: that's the trick right now when you're thinking about hedging 150 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 3: your reports. 151 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 6: I mean, that's just what she just said there. 152 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 2: Let me translated, folks, She said, use the Boston Red 153 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 2: Sox as an age. 154 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 6: That's what she said. 155 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 4: Amy, You know what, the stock markets adder near all 156 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 4: time highs. Here are you seeing downside protection? Are folks 157 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 4: hedging some of their gains? 158 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 6: Here? 159 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 3: They are? They? And you know, to me, it's really interesting, 160 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 3: right because if you look the past two years, we 161 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 3: were in this fomo yolo market, one was buying call options. 162 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 3: But you know, the one distinction I'll tell you is 163 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 3: it's really a dichotomy between what institutional investors are doing 164 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 3: and what retail is doing. We're actually still continuing to 165 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 3: see that fits to the right tail on the retail side, 166 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 3: it's mostly the institutional investors that are now thinking more 167 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 3: about protecting their portfolio. And then that goes back to 168 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 3: what I had said earlier about well, how do we 169 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: protect our portfolios right now in a high dispersion environment. 170 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 3: You know, do we use our traditional indices or do 171 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 3: we think much more sector and stock specific, use those 172 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:33,079 Speaker 3: thematic baskets. I don't know baseball at all, but I 173 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 3: guess they're like the Boston Red Sox, but you know, 174 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 3: be much more specific about that in an environment where 175 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 3: you know, some things are going one way and some 176 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 3: things are going the other way. 177 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 2: When you see the ten year yield come in, I 178 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 2: mean it's more like a Francis Donald question. But when 179 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 2: you see the yield space come in in the somewhat 180 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 2: exuberance within the cacophony of political news, including in Canada 181 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 2: any with Silverman, is this a bull market? And the 182 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 2: answer is, I'm sorry, we're printing higher at seeames. 183 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,679 Speaker 3: We certainly are. And you know, to me, it's one 184 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 3: of those like it's going to be great until you 185 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 3: get that volatility potfule, right, it's going to be great 186 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,199 Speaker 3: till you get that August fifth or that February twenty eighteen. 187 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 3: But you know, the one thing I'll say about what 188 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 3: Besson said about targeting that yield versus marketing rates is 189 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 3: we have to really be careful Tom about watching the 190 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:26,239 Speaker 3: rates versus equity wall correlations changing, because that's a relationship 191 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 3: we've been counting on, just like bond equity correlations. But 192 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 3: you know, when people start to kind of say we're 193 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 3: thinking about this, then you have to watch that relationship 194 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 3: because if that breaks, we see a lot of other 195 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 3: things breaking to I. 196 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 2: Mean, nobody cares. All they want to know is skylt 197 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 2: Caruso over People Magazine has Jason confirming Taylor Swift will 198 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 2: be at the Super Bowl to support Travis. Okay, great, 199 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 2: we have to remind everyone, Amy Wu Silverman dragged I say, 200 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 2: dragged her daughter to see Taylor. So they said they're 201 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 2: looking and screaming like Row six or something. I mean, Taylor, 202 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 2: Adam and all that. Give us a Taylor Swift update, 203 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 2: Amy Wo Silverman, I mean, do you go with the 204 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 2: Chiefs just because she's going to darken the door in 205 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 2: New Orleans? 206 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 7: I guess. 207 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 3: Look, I know so little about football, like it's worse 208 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 3: than what I know about baseball. But if that's where 209 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 3: tem Taylor is, I guess that's where we are too, 210 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 3: So go chief. 211 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 2: Okay, Amy Wo Silverman, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. 212 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 6: RBC Capital Markets. 213 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 214 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 215 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 216 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 217 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 2: David Rosenberg leads his note this morning with comments on 218 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Treasury. David just to begin with, can 219 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Treasury single handedly lower the ten year yield. 220 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 5: No US, there you go. 221 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 4: So what do you expect to hear from our secretary 222 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 4: of the treasure What would you like to hear from 223 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:08,079 Speaker 4: the secretary? 224 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 8: Well, you know, I mean the assumption is that Besson 225 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 8: has any real influence on the president. I think that 226 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 8: we don't really know the answer to that. But we 227 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 8: know that Donald Trump is going to do what he 228 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 8: wants to do. So it really comes down to you know, 229 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 8: what he says and ultimately what he does and what 230 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 8: you think his objectives are. But to me, you know, 231 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 8: the most important voice, by far is what the President 232 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 8: has to say. I don't think Scott Besson has the 233 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 8: same degree of influence on Trump say that Bob Rubin 234 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 8: may have had on. 235 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 5: Bill Clinton back in the day. 236 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 8: So, you know, tremendous respect for the Treasury secretary, but 237 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 8: I question just how much influence he really has. 238 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 2: We're going to get to this with David Rosenberg. I 239 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 2: did a panel with him up in Toronto. It was 240 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:01,319 Speaker 2: like riveting on the politics of Canada and the I've 241 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 2: been reading the Globe and mail, David Shreeman and others 242 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 2: up there. 243 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 6: I want to get to that in a moment. 244 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 2: You have a headline David Rosenberg's classic David, and it's 245 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 2: the bond bullion barbell outpaces the equity market. 246 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 6: To me, that's fascinating. 247 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:21,839 Speaker 2: Describe the bond bullion barbell. 248 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 8: Well, it's the barbell or the blended return between the 249 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 8: two save havens, which are treasuries and gold, which combined 250 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 8: have generated a total return of around six percent so 251 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 8: far this year, the SMB one hundred total returns four 252 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 8: and a half percent. Just a reminder to people out 253 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 8: there who have ice in their veins and the risk 254 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 8: on momentum trade that's dominating the headlines that actually, when 255 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 8: you look risk for reward, combined bonds and gold have 256 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 8: actually been a better strategy year to date, still early on, 257 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,079 Speaker 8: than the equity market's been. So that was basically the 258 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 8: message is that if you're looking for alternatives, that particular 259 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 8: strategy is actually a great stabilizer, not just a stabilizer, 260 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 8: but also is adding alpha to your total portfolio. 261 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 4: David Tomorrow, here in the United States, we're going to 262 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 4: get the non farm payrolls here. 263 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 5: What are you looking for? 264 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 6: Him? 265 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 4: How do you think the Fed's gonna kind of look 266 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 4: at this data? 267 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 8: Well, it's a great question. I mean, the question is 268 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 8: not just about non farm payrolls, but about just the 269 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 8: data right now in general. How much influence are they 270 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 8: going to have because the Fed is already lead down 271 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 8: the gauntlet that nothing is happening in the first half 272 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 8: of the year. And you remember, you go back a 273 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 8: few months ago, we had a ton of rate cuts 274 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 8: being priced in immediately, and that's not happening because of 275 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 8: all the Trump uncertainty. So I'm not so sure that 276 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 8: tomorrow's number is going to have a big influence on 277 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 8: the Fed. Of course, you know, the markets trade around it. 278 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 8: We just had back to back months. You know the 279 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 8: new Powell inflation indicators no longer you know the super core, 280 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 8: you know the CPI X energy X shelter. It's the 281 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 8: market based core pc the flavor, which he's discussed several times, 282 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 8: and that metric has come in at zero point one 283 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 8: percent each of the past two months. And I think 284 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 8: without all the Trump uncertainty, especially regarding tariffs, and you 285 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 8: could argue also a fiscal policy, although right now fiscal 286 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 8: policy is tightening on the spending side, so it's really 287 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 8: mostly about tariffs. The FED would still be talking about 288 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 8: cutting rates right now. When you're talking about what the 289 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 8: trend in the market based core PC to flavor, you know, 290 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 8: it's running now on a three and six month basis 291 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 8: right of the two percent target. And this has become 292 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 8: Powell's favorite indicator. But they're actually signaling that they're on 293 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 8: hold in definitely, and that's because of all the policy 294 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 8: uncertainty that we have in front of us, and we 295 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 8: have to wait for that clarity to come to the 296 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 8: fore whenever it does come to the fore. But the 297 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 8: Fed right now is signaling nothing's going on rate wise 298 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 8: until the summer. So tomorrow's number, I don't think is 299 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 8: going to bear a lot unless you know, we're going 300 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 8: to get revisions to the household survey and the payroll survey. 301 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 5: They'll probably show some convergence. 302 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 8: We're going to get, you know, the numbers coming off 303 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 8: that new population count based on the immigration file or 304 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 8: the previous boom and immigration. So the question for me 305 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 8: is going to be the big number tomorrow Actually after 306 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 8: we all look at the non farm payroll headline and 307 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 8: the visions is what how did this affect the unemployment rate? 308 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 8: And so so far as that nudge is the unemployment 309 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 8: rate up tells the fad, there's more slack than they thought, 310 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 8: and that could you know, maybe bring marginally the date 311 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 8: forward for when they might start cutting interest rates again. 312 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 5: But to me, nothing much beyond that. 313 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 4: David, I know in your note this morning, you talk 314 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 4: about the US trade deficit and the big dent to 315 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 4: US growth coming from the widening trade deficit. You're focused 316 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 4: on the trade deficit, but I don't think the folks 317 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 4: in Congress are How do you think about the US 318 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 4: trade deficit? 319 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 8: Well, I'm looking more at at the components, Like we've 320 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 8: had a big decline in exports in December and they're 321 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 8: down precipitously through the past four months. And what that's 322 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 8: telling me is one thing is about the impact of 323 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 8: the super strong US dollar. People, I don't think you're 324 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 8: recognizing just how much financial conditions in the US of 325 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 8: titan over the course of the past few months. And 326 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 8: on top of that, it's also telling me that this 327 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 8: how weak the global economy is right now that we're 328 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 8: seeing the exports side really starting to not just accelerate 329 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 8: but now contract, So of course it's going to lead 330 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 8: to fourth quarter GDP downward revisions to what we already 331 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 8: saw from the commerce Department. But it's telling us something 332 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 8: about the state of the global economy, both in Asia 333 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 8: and Europe, that it's coming back to hit home in 334 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 8: terms of the reduction and exports, and exports have a 335 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 8: very powerful multiplier impact on the rest of the industrial sector. 336 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,479 Speaker 8: And you're right, nobody else is talking about it. So 337 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 8: I thought, Okay, I guess I'll order that. 338 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 2: Mart David Rosenberg wh this week continue with Rosenberg Research, Toronto. 339 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,239 Speaker 2: Thrilled he's with us this morning. Futures up sixteen. They 340 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 2: advance across the arc of the morning here nineteen minutes 341 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,239 Speaker 2: away from a market open. We welcome all of you 342 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 2: on a commute across the nation, across Canada as well, 343 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 2: and of course on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. Paul 344 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,199 Speaker 2: and I really humbled by the statistics for January. They 345 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: let us into the statistics. I have to buy lunch, 346 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 2: you know, yep, they forced me to buy lunch. 347 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 6: But you know that's fine, thods just fine. 348 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 2: There we were, David Rosenberg, you and I did this 349 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 2: panel up in Toronto. I was shocked at what I 350 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 2: perceived is the struggle of the Canadian spirit in Toronto. 351 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: And I want you to explain the power right now, 352 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 2: I've got CBC here with the Conservatives with forty three 353 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 2: percent of the vote, the Liberals, whoever's going to replace 354 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 2: Trudeau with twenty three percent of the vote. Is it 355 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 2: like France where they get together in a coalition or 356 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 2: is it just in our translation Republicans versus Democrats. 357 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 5: Well, another great question. 358 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 8: You know, it's a parliamentary system here, but it's not 359 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 8: as it's not as fragmented as it. 360 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 5: Is over in Europe. 361 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 8: There's really three main parties and actually, for the past 362 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 8: several years, because the Liberals didn't have a majority, the 363 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 8: justin Trudeau Liberals had to team up with the Socialist 364 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 8: and DP party to be able to well not have 365 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,120 Speaker 8: a majority, but have a coalition so that they wouldn't. 366 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 5: Be a non confidence vote. 367 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 8: A few months ago that coalition broke and now of 368 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 8: course we're in a leadership race and Parliament is closed 369 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 8: right now, and then we'll have it probably to life 370 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 8: sometime I would expect during the spring. 371 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:05,719 Speaker 5: So it's not as fragmented. 372 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:09,400 Speaker 8: I don't think that unless we have a minority government, 373 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 8: we're not going to have a coalition. If the polls 374 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 8: are accurate right now, I'm not so sure that they are, 375 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 8: because we don't know who's going to be leading a 376 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:20,680 Speaker 8: Liberal party. Mark Carney, being an outsider and being hailed 377 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 8: of course, is having all these tremendous global economic and 378 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 8: financial credentials, and he's not going to be tainted by 379 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 8: the past number of years of failed Liberal policies. He'll 380 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 8: be a fresh face. I would expect that if we 381 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 8: have this conversation a couple of months from now, Tom, 382 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 8: that those polls are going to narrow win. If Carney 383 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,479 Speaker 8: wins the Liberal leadership race, which I think he probably 384 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 8: will at this point. But if the election was held 385 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 8: today based on those polls, it would be it would 386 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 8: be a Brian mulroney like landslide majority of the Conservatives. 387 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:56,120 Speaker 8: But I wouldn't extrapolate that because Carney. If Carney emerges victorious, 388 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 8: he's going to pack a very powerful punch. 389 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 2: Do you or anyone have any idea what happens? What 390 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 2: is it twenty seven days? Like David, do you have 391 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,400 Speaker 2: any idea what happens in twenty seven days? 392 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 8: Well, I don't think the tariffs are going to be coming. 393 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,959 Speaker 8: I'm notwithstanding the quotes thirty day reprieve because we have 394 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 8: to look at the facts that are presented in front 395 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 8: of us, you know, Friday, last Friday at the White House, 396 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 8: when asked if there was any chance that the tariffs 397 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 8: on Canada and Mexico would be averted, he said, no, 398 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 8: not a chance. They're a done deal. And then one 399 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 8: phone call on Monday with Mexico and two in Canada. 400 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 8: Next thing, you know, well, no, we've got a thirty 401 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 8: day reprieve. Remember he changed his mind as to when 402 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 8: he was going to level the tariffs. He still has 403 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 8: the power to do that. And so the question comes why, 404 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 8: because what Mexico. Let's talk about Canada. What did Canada 405 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 8: really do? Like, what did we do? 406 00:20:58,480 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 6: What? 407 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,199 Speaker 8: Like fentadelts are like, what is that We'll have a 408 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 8: few helicopters and drones looking over the border. The one 409 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 8: point three billion dollars of more border security and enforcement 410 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 8: justin Trude already pledged that quite a while ago. So 411 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 8: you know what really changed, What really changed is that 412 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 8: Canada Mexico moved a little bit. And now Donald Trump 413 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:27,359 Speaker 8: can once again claim a win to the US general public. 414 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 8: He got a win from Canada. It went from Mexico 415 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 8: got you know, got a win from Colombia got a 416 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 8: win from Panama, So he's just collecting all these wins. 417 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 8: Of course, I think that they're inflated. But I think 418 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 8: that the bottom light here is that it comes back 419 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 8: to the initial question about about Scott Besson about you know, 420 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 8: they want to get inflation down, they want to get 421 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 8: the So answer the question, can he directly get the 422 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 8: ten year note yield down? Well, not directly, win directly, 423 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 8: you know, forego all the tax stimulus and keep your 424 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 8: focus on on the spending restraint right now, Well that's 425 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 8: the help and anything you can. 426 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 5: Do to reduce inflation. 427 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 8: Inflation expectations will tell me that's not going to bring 428 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 8: down to ten year treasury no yields. So certainly, you 429 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 8: know he can have an influence from a fiscal policy standpoint. 430 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 8: But yeah, ask you of the question why did Trump 431 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 8: change his mind? And why do I think he was 432 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 8: never going to take him seriously or literally? He campaigned 433 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 8: on a lot of things, but the biggest campaign message 434 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 8: was he was going to unwind the rest of all 435 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 8: the Biden inflation. He was going to bring ghastly and 436 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 8: the grocery prices down. Didn't you know, well, how are 437 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 8: you going to do that and then put a tariff 438 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 8: on Mexico, which applies sixty percent of US food imports 439 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 8: or thirty percent. Canada supply sixty percent of oil imports. 440 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,959 Speaker 8: There would be a massive inflation shock, even temporarily, and 441 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 8: that would work against his objectives. So as I think 442 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 8: about it, and I wasted too much time on the 443 00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 8: weekend worrying and writing about it that it was never going. 444 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 5: To happen, it didn't happen. 445 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 8: And I still have Canadians here are still on tenor 446 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 8: hooks about what's going to happen on March first. 447 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 5: I'm telling them, I mean, he's not gonna do it, 448 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 5: I guess. 449 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 8: So maybe he'll get more concessions and show that I 450 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 8: got more wins. 451 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 5: But it's a to me basically. 452 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 8: You know, Justin Trudeau had a chance to actually call 453 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 8: Trump's bluff, but he didn't. But no, I don't think 454 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 8: I think that if they didn't as close to zero 455 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,680 Speaker 8: percent probability, I do not think the tariffs are coming 456 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 8: into your country because it's. 457 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 5: Going to work against it. Right, It's going to work 458 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 5: against Trump's legacy. 459 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 6: I gotta squeeze this in a one minute. 460 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 2: David, one of the reasons. I'm a Montreal Canadians fan. 461 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 2: Is a gunpoint I was for We had a family 462 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,719 Speaker 2: family that we knew called the Great Britains, and we 463 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 2: would go up to the Thousand Islands of two lifetimes 464 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 2: ago David Rosenberg, and there was this relationship between America 465 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:57,119 Speaker 2: and Canada wrapped around the Saint Lawrence Seenway and Gananaqua 466 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 2: up to Montreal. 467 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 8: Is that gone, Well, it's it's I wouldn't say it's gone, 468 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 8: but you know, it's it's been impaired, at least for now. 469 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 8: I really I don't like the fact that you know, 470 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 8: we're booing you know, national anthems. I mean, this is 471 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 8: more about you know, half the US population voted against Trump, Like, 472 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 8: what are you booing against? It's really h It's really 473 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 8: about the president. So be the president. But the reality 474 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 8: is that you know, politics will compulx will go. 475 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 5: I wouldn't, you know. 476 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 8: Extrapolate this into the future, but right now, right right now, 477 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 8: I got to say Canadians generally speaking, and of course 478 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 8: I live in Toronto, they're feeling really hurt by what's happened. 479 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 5: And the thing is that. 480 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 8: I don't think the tariffs are going through. But the 481 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 8: die has been cast and the damage is done by 482 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 8: the way Tom not just here but in the US 483 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 8: too because of the uncertainty that's being implemented into not 484 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 8: just the financial markets, but in the economy. I think 485 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 8: you're going to find the one thing that's going to 486 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 8: be shelved in bulcan United States because just because of 487 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,919 Speaker 8: the specter and the threat with the tariff, it's going 488 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 8: to be shelving capital spending. 489 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 2: Clients say, I'm out of time, Michael Barsa's get out 490 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 2: the hook. David Rosenberg. That was wonderful. Thank you so much, 491 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on 492 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,360 Speaker 2: his Canada. 493 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 494 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,679 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 495 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 496 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 497 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 498 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 6: This in the Washington Post. 499 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 2: This time the anti Trump resistance is in the courts, 500 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 2: not in the streets. For both of you supporting the 501 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 2: president and those upset at the president. Wendy Schiller with 502 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 2: his now professor at Brown University. The subtitle Professor Schiller 503 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 2: is a president issues orders that some say disregard the law. 504 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 2: A hap hazard group of opponents is filing lawsuits. Where 505 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 2: is the judiciary professor Schiller? 506 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 7: Well, good morning, Tom, Good morning, Paul and Lisa. You know, 507 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 7: did you shary? 508 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 9: We have to wait and see which judiciary is We 509 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 9: know venue shopping, which is the term that describes people 510 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 9: who are interested in getting a particular ruling from the 511 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 9: federal courts, find a plaintiff in particular jurisdictions to match 512 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 9: what the ruling is that they want. So the ninth 513 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 9: certain California, is thought to be somewhat liberal. 514 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 7: The fifth Circuit that deals. 515 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 9: With Texas, mostly in Oklahoma and Louisiana, is thought to 516 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,959 Speaker 9: be quite conservative. 517 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 7: So those are appeals court circuits. 518 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 9: You start in the district courts and you really venue 519 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 9: shop to see can you get a judge. 520 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,400 Speaker 7: We had a ruling from a Rhode Island judge that will. 521 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 9: Issue a ruling that at least will give an injunction 522 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,679 Speaker 9: or some time for you to mobilize other forces in 523 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 9: the American political system. 524 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 2: So I got somebody in Bethesda listening to ninety ninety 525 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 2: one FM. Good morning, Nathan Hager his food courts better 526 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 2: than our Yeah, I don't know how that sounds. 527 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 6: Very good, Wendy. 528 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 2: That person in Bethesda now looking at Doze or you know, 529 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 2: name the crisis. I guess they're going after the FAA 530 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 2: tomorrow whatever, whatever the crisis is. How long do they 531 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 2: wait for the judiciary, whether Texas or California to show up. 532 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 9: Well, they've already showed up, right, I mean, they've already 533 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 9: been in junctions against the Birthright Executive Order for example, 534 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 9: most recently the spending the freeze on the money that 535 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 9: was spent. There already are temporary injunctions, but they're temporary. 536 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 9: They have to really go to court and get them 537 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 9: more firm if they want to do any stalling or blocking. 538 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 7: And so it's going to crawl through the courts. 539 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,199 Speaker 9: And the question is does the trumpministration pay attention to 540 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 9: the federal courts? 541 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 7: Will they actually abide by federal rulings? 542 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,679 Speaker 9: You know, in the past, we've had state governors that 543 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 9: said no to federal government. It's unusual to have the 544 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 9: federal government, the executi branch say no to the federal courts. 545 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 9: That's coming and I think that's something we haven't seen before, 546 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 9: and the impact of all these or Tom, we just 547 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 9: simply don't know. I mean, first of all the issues orders, 548 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 9: then he takes it back or issues orders, and then 549 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,200 Speaker 9: he qualifies. So in terms of the Trump administration, how 550 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 9: much is real firing federal employees seems to be quite real. 551 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 9: The impact that the average American will feel, that's gonna 552 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 9: take a while. 553 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 4: So, Wendy the news flow. Not surprisingly, he continues to 554 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 4: be pretty darn steady coming out of Washington, DC. What's 555 00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 4: the feeling about this Gaza news over the past a 556 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,959 Speaker 4: couple of days. Was it an off the cuff the remark? 557 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 4: Was it a serious policy initiative? What are you hearing 558 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 4: from your sources? 559 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 9: I can only, as I always do, speculate, But it 560 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 9: is so in keeping with Donald Trump. 561 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 7: He sees a beautiful property. I mean, it's on the water, 562 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 7: it's beautiful, the weather's great. 563 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 9: He literally, i think, perceives this as a good deal, 564 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 9: A good deal for Palestinians, A good deal unless they 565 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 9: are forcibly removed, obviously. 566 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 7: Which would not be a good deal. 567 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 9: But he's saying, nothing's ever stuck, and if you do, 568 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 9: you don't have economic livelihood. 569 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 7: You can't survive, and that is true. So you know, 570 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 7: not every single thing Donald Trump says is untrue. 571 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 9: We don't have any right to take it over at all, buyers, sell, 572 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,719 Speaker 9: or displace anybody. But when you think about his mindset, 573 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 9: it's totally in keeping with Donald Trump's mindset to solve 574 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 9: the problem through a business deal. 575 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 2: Was this the way Andrew Jackson was. 576 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 9: Andrew Jackson didn't have nearly as many layers of government 577 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 9: despite Jefferson's effort to build a bureaucracy. 578 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 7: And he was a general. I mean, you know this story. 579 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 9: You know very well about Eisenhower, how frustrated he was 580 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 9: as president of the United States because he had been, 581 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 9: you know, the leader of the European theater in World 582 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 9: War Two. He was a general and he would say 583 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 9: things and they wouldn't get done. Trump has a general's 584 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 9: mentality in that sense, and he wants things done. That's 585 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 9: why he's letting us run the way he is. But 586 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 9: when you can't fly because that's not working, when your 587 00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 9: water is no longer clean because that's not working, then 588 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 9: we have to see whether there's any public reaction. 589 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 4: So, Wendy, I guess one of the more nuts and 590 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 4: bolts things coming out of Washington is they need to 591 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 4: get a budget strategy going here. There's a lot of 592 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 4: legislation that's kind of cueued up over the next several months. 593 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 4: Do we have any idea how this will play out? 594 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 4: Is a Trump administration, do they have a game plan 595 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 4: for some of this legislation and some of this budgetary issues. 596 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 7: This is a jogging between the House and the Senate 597 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:25,480 Speaker 7: Visa v. 598 00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 6: Trump. 599 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 9: The Senate promises reconciliation, which means that you don't get filibustered. 600 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 9: That means you can guarantee that you will get a 601 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 9: budget through and the tax cut bill through, just as 602 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 9: Obama used it for the Affordable Care Act. 603 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:38,959 Speaker 7: You can promise that to Trump. 604 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 9: So in the game of delivering, John Thune, the Senate 605 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 9: majority leader Republican, can deliver, whereas Mike Johnson does not 606 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 9: have the votes to deliver the same budget because the 607 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,920 Speaker 9: very far right fiscal hawks want deeper cuts that the. 608 00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 7: Senate won't take. So Fune is saying, listen, side with. 609 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 9: Us, put pressure on the House because our people won't 610 00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 9: take those cuts, and then you've got a government that 611 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 9: will shut down. Here's the thing to watch for. Democrat 612 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 9: strategy maybe to shut down the government. We're just throwing 613 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,480 Speaker 9: it out there, but I'm just saying, if you're going 614 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 9: to stop this juggernaut of firing people and shutting things down, 615 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 9: shut the government down. 616 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 2: So under your quaffin launch at Tammany Hall Pub and 617 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 2: Parlor in Providence, there's like four Republicans brown that's where 618 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 2: they go to lunch. So, Professor Schiller, you're the Republicans 619 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 2: the conservatives at Tammany Hall Pub and Parlor, and they 620 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 2: ask you, when has mister Musk shown the door? How 621 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 2: do you frame that discussion, that dialogue right now about 622 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 2: this absolutely original thing that is doge. 623 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 7: Again, the same mantra over and over again. 624 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 9: When people who live in red leaning states feel the 625 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 9: impact severely from some of the lack of government. 626 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 7: Oversight, the lack of government inspection. 627 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 9: We've got a bird flu that seems to be persistent, 628 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 9: that's affecting now Nevada. You know, you need the federal 629 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 9: to come in and have USDA, you need CDC, you 630 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 9: need these entities. 631 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 7: And when they aren't there and nobody is picking up 632 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 7: the phone and you can't get help, sooner or later 633 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 7: you will turn on the federal government. In turn on 634 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 7: Donald Trump. 635 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 9: And if that happens and his ratings go down, his 636 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 9: full numbers have already gone down a little bit since 637 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 9: he was elected, then he'll look to Musk and he'll 638 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 9: conveniently probably blame Elon Musk and show them the door. 639 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 7: But for a lot of people, that may take too 640 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 7: long for them. 641 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 9: To sort of escape any kind of injury or harm. 642 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,240 Speaker 9: So we'll have to see you can make the federal 643 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 9: brok more efficient. I think there's a reasonable argument to make, 644 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 9: but the way that they're doing it maybe too abrupt. 645 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 7: And what you say, and there are more than four 646 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 7: Republicans at Brown, I will. 647 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 2: Just tell you, thank you, we'll go We'll go wild 648 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 2: today ten Wendy just on doge In, mister Musk, we 649 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 2: get forty thousand people. I guess they's show on the 650 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 2: door in September. I don't know what's your timeline on 651 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 2: Elon Musk. Do you haven't your head like this guy's 652 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 2: got through the weekend? Does this guy got through March? 653 00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 2: Does this guy got to the next test earnings? What's 654 00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 2: the shiller timeline on mister Musk? 655 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 7: Well, just one simple thing. 656 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,480 Speaker 9: A lot of federal grants run on a January schedule 657 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 9: and a July schedule, So now you're dealing with the 658 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,959 Speaker 9: people who did apply in January or we're going to 659 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 9: and now you're thinking about July. And as that money 660 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 9: freezes up, it's hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. 661 00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 9: People are going to feel it all over the country 662 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 9: in their hospital systems in particular. 663 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 7: So I think that's I'm looking at JUNI or July in. 664 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 9: Terms of impact. You know, all these changes, what are 665 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 9: the impact? And now you're gonna have Robert F. Kennedy 666 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 9: most likely getting through at HHS. That's another huge feeder 667 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 9: of money from the federal government to individuals and institutions. 668 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 9: When that money gets blocked, you know, services may not 669 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 9: be able to be provided, and then people are going 670 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 9: to feel It's the same scenario as Nu Gingrid in 671 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 9: nineteen ninety five. He was really run high January to 672 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 9: July and then things fell off the. 673 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 6: Right huge insight. 674 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 2: That's what we love having Professor Schiller on. 675 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,479 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 676 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android 677 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 678 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 679 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:17,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 680 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 2: So daily look at the front pages that Lisa Matteo report. 681 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 2: She's far beyond driven. 682 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 6: Lisa, what do you have? 683 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 10: Okay? Count down to the super Bowl? Right, So the 684 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,080 Speaker 10: Wall Street Journal has this look into the new trends 685 00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 10: that you're going to see during the commercials because of 686 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 10: commercials a big draw for the Super Bowl. Right, So, 687 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 10: one burger chain is bringing back an old marketing strategy. 688 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:38,760 Speaker 10: Listen to this, and I've got. 689 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 3: Just what you need to cure that post party bub. 690 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 7: The Carls Junior hangover Burger. 691 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:47,880 Speaker 10: Carl's Junior bringing the sexy advertising back bikinis and burgers. 692 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,719 Speaker 10: You remember Paris Hilton, right, Kim Kardashian, they started this 693 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 10: whole commercial trend. Now it's influencer alex Earl. Okay, for 694 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 10: those of you who are watching YouTube, you can see 695 00:34:58,200 --> 00:34:59,840 Speaker 10: the commercial right now. 696 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 2: There you go. 697 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 10: But the experts are saying that it shows the shift. Yes, 698 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 10: there it is. Remember remember Paris Hilt. Oh my, see, 699 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 10: no one's paying attention to. 700 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 2: Lisa by the only planet that doesn't know is the 701 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 2: rock and a commercial. 702 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 6: That's all I want, No, no. 703 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,000 Speaker 10: But what they're saying is that they're showing. They're saying 704 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 10: that it's kind of the country feeling the new feeling 705 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 10: under the new administration. That's what they're saying. So the 706 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 10: new administration is saying going back to old ways, and 707 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 10: this carls Junior going back to old ways. 708 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 4: That you to commercial. 709 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 2: Can I just suggest maybe it will be a pleasant 710 00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 2: relief for all from what everybody's going through on a 711 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 2: day to day basis. Okay, get the Sunday and it's 712 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,280 Speaker 2: actually like football. 713 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:45,839 Speaker 5: A good football game. 714 00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 10: You know who else is doing Open AI is actually 715 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 10: debuting a commercial at the Super Bowl that's going to 716 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 10: the Wall Street journals. 717 00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 5: So stay tuned for that. 718 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:55,880 Speaker 2: Sports books. 719 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,279 Speaker 10: Okay, So they want to cash in on the Taylor 720 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,480 Speaker 10: Swift fever at the Super Bowl, but it's not that easy. 721 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,120 Speaker 10: So novelty prop bets you know what I'm talking about, right, 722 00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,240 Speaker 10: super Bowl centering on Taylor Swift, like Will Travis Kelsey 723 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,759 Speaker 10: proposed to Taylor Swift on the field, like those kind 724 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,799 Speaker 10: of bets. Okay, but they're on unregulated sites so the 725 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 10: real guys can't get to it. But they're doing something different. 726 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 10: So Draft Kings is coming up, with a quick way. 727 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 10: They're called Swifty specials. So these kind of bets so 728 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,320 Speaker 10: prop bets that are named after Swift songs. So for example, 729 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,959 Speaker 10: you have the shake it Off bet right, okay, which 730 00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 10: has the Philadelphia Eagles scoring first and Chiefs to win. 731 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,200 Speaker 10: And then you have the Mine Bets, which is Swift's 732 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 10: boyfriend Kelsey getting eighty seven or more receiving yards and 733 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:40,720 Speaker 10: scoring more one and more touchdowns. 734 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:41,080 Speaker 3: You see. 735 00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,919 Speaker 10: So they're kind of using it that way in order 736 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,319 Speaker 10: to get it to be allowed either set. 737 00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 2: So the answer is that the Eagles win. It's a 738 00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,720 Speaker 2: Champagne problems betright. 739 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,759 Speaker 6: That's one of her sons, exactly. Think I knew that. 740 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,840 Speaker 10: Next, okay, Moms and dads, I know I'm having trouble 741 00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 10: keeping up with the lingo that the kids are coming 742 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,920 Speaker 10: up with. It's fast and furious. The journal saying it's 743 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,319 Speaker 10: because of social media. So for example, remember Riz that 744 00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 10: was like the hot word. It's old, it's old read yes, okay, 745 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:16,800 Speaker 10: So you have to get to the new words like betamaxing, giat, gigachad, battie. 746 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,560 Speaker 10: Have you heard any of these? Sigma? 747 00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:19,279 Speaker 2: Okay? 748 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,399 Speaker 10: So Tom, if your daughter calls you omega like you're 749 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,239 Speaker 10: so Omega, that's a bad thing. That's just just letting 750 00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 10: you know. 751 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 7: So if it comes up at the dinner table, no. 752 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 2: Go try dell, don't look I co try deal and 753 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:34,879 Speaker 2: it didn't work. 754 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,760 Speaker 4: Omega is like the lowest rate the. 755 00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:40,560 Speaker 6: Today. 756 00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, get squeeze one. 757 00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,040 Speaker 10: And that's also AM radio could get a second wind. 758 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:47,879 Speaker 7: We're very excited about this. 759 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 10: Okay, objections from EV manufacturers, you remember that, right, but 760 00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 10: biparts in legislation, advancing again in the Senate, so it 761 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,959 Speaker 10: could come back and get a second wind again. 762 00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,759 Speaker 6: The newspaper is Lisa Matteo. Thank you so much. 763 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:04,920 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apples, Spotify, 764 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,320 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 765 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 766 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:17,040 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 767 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 768 00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,360 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.