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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, so you can hear

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Speaker 1: the chatters from the crowd.

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Speaker 2: We have a big chant, a big chance to make

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Speaker 2: it all question the Big Bucks three punter fame? What

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Speaker 2: a man?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, Buckets Edition, brought to

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Speaker 1: you by FanDuel Sportsbook. My name is Matt Moore. I'm

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Speaker 1: the senior NBA writer for the Action Network. Glad to

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Speaker 1: be with you, Thanks for joining us. We're going to

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Speaker 1: preview the conference finals in the NBA Playoffs as the

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles Lakers take on the Denver Nuggets and the

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Speaker 1: Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics face off as a

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Speaker 1: Bubble Final four rematch on both sides of the bracket.

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Speaker 1: To help me break it down, give some best bets.

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Speaker 1: We've got Jason Temp You can know him from Volume

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Speaker 1: Sports from Hoops tonight.

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Speaker 2: Jason, How you doing, dude, I'm doing great, Matt. I

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Speaker 2: can't tell you how excited I am to talk. I

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Speaker 2: know we're opening with Heat Celtics, but I've been stuck

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Speaker 2: in my Lakers echo chamber for a couple of weeks

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Speaker 2: now on Twitter, and I've got all this Lakers optimism

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Speaker 2: and what I want to hear is a good old

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Speaker 2: fashioned case for the Nuggets, and I'm excited to hash

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Speaker 2: that out with you and get some some quality perspective.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited.

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Speaker 1: I'll you know, I'll try and make a case for

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Speaker 1: the number one seed in the Western Conference. I'll try

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Speaker 1: and do that a little bit later, but I want

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Speaker 1: to start. We're gonna go ahead, We're gona get best

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Speaker 1: bets for each series, and then we'll break down how

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Speaker 1: we see it going Basketball Heavy podcast on this one

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Speaker 1: with Jason. Let's start with the Eastern Conference as the

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Speaker 1: Boston Celtics fresh off a thrilling Game seven win over

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Speaker 1: the Philadelphia seventy six ers, who flopped like dead fish.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, can dead fish flop? If they can,

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Speaker 1: definitely that's what it looked like. A horrible ending for

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Speaker 1: the Sixers, but a great win for the Celtics. Jason

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Speaker 1: Tatum shrugs off the Game five struggles or Game six struggles. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: he showed up in late in that game and it

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Speaker 1: was phenomenal. Fifty one in the closeout, Absolutely incredible performance.

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Speaker 1: Sell these huge favorites in the series minus five point

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Speaker 1: fifty on the series price, pure heat plus three ninety.

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Speaker 1: Jason what's your best bet for Celtics versus Heat?

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Speaker 2: All right, Matt, my best bet would be Jason Tatum

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Speaker 2: minus one eighty for Series MVP, and the case is

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Speaker 2: pretty simple. I think I think Boston wins if you

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Speaker 2: look at the way that Boston's offensive usage is broken

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Speaker 2: down over the course of this playoff run. I just

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Speaker 2: don't think Jlen Brown's going to average enough points in

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Speaker 2: order to get series MVP. We've also seen Philly do this,

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Speaker 2: and I think we'll see Miami do something different or

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Speaker 2: something similar. I wouldn't be surprised if they deployed Jimmy

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Speaker 2: Butler on Jlen Brown as a little bit more of

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Speaker 2: a strength versus strength type of matchup, and then you

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Speaker 2: will see someone like Caleb Martin guarding Jason Tatum with

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Speaker 2: a lot of ball pressure. And I think the idea

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Speaker 2: there is I think Miami wants Jason Tatum to take

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Speaker 2: a bunch of off the dribble jump shots and things

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Speaker 2: along those lines. I just think he naturally ends up

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Speaker 2: being the scoring leader of the series, and quite frankly,

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Speaker 2: like I really do view Game six as a breakthrough

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Speaker 2: moment of sorts for Jason Tatum. I mean, he had

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Speaker 2: a rough pull up jump shooting season. All year, he

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Speaker 2: shot below thirty percent on pull up three, struggled a

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Speaker 2: little bit to start the postseason. That kind of felt

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Speaker 2: to me like breaking through, and I think that is

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Speaker 2: evidenced by the way he just attacked Game seven from

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Speaker 2: start to finish. So I think Jayson Tatum's in a

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Speaker 2: good groove. I think He's got a good chance to

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Speaker 2: lead the team in scoring by a significant margin. I

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Speaker 2: think Boston wins. So if you wanted to bet Boston

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Speaker 2: to win the series, but do so with better odds,

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Speaker 2: I think Tatum minus one to eighty first series MVP

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Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I like that one. I'm going to take. My

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Speaker 1: best bet is going to be the Miami Heat plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half on an alternate series spread minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty four. So this is a nice come confluence

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Speaker 1: of two things I very much enjoy when I'm betting

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Speaker 1: these series. One is that the market is forced into

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Speaker 1: a window where at asked to edge this in Boston's favor.

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Speaker 1: There's no way for the power rating for them to

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Speaker 1: be able to accurately push up the Heat enough, Like

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Speaker 1: they just can't get Miami up high enough to catch

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Speaker 1: the team that was the title favorite up until basically

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Speaker 1: late February and then became the title favorite immediately again

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Speaker 1: after the Bucks were eliminated, like the Celtics became title

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Speaker 1: favorites with Malcolm Brogden signed, or when they traded for

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Speaker 1: Malcolm Brogden in the preseason. They were the favorites all

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Speaker 1: the way through until the Bucks took over the number

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Speaker 1: one seed and then they reclaimed it. There's no way

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Speaker 1: for the book to account for this. So we've got

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Speaker 1: good value, I think from a the perspective of getting

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Speaker 1: value on Miami. And then this returns to the same

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Speaker 1: thing that I bet when I bet on the Sixers

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half versus the Celtics. Boston's a

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Speaker 1: great team, like they really are. They're a great team.

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Speaker 1: They're versatile, and they're deep, and they're switchable, and they're sound,

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Speaker 1: and they have so many shooters, and Tatum's great and

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Speaker 1: Brown's great. They screw around. This name screws around, and

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Speaker 1: they screwed around three times versus the Sixers and almost

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Speaker 1: lost a series and honestly, they probably should have wrapped

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Speaker 1: up in five or six games. They're gonna do it

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Speaker 1: again here because Miami is an undead monster. What happens is,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, matchups can determine how close the series is,

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Speaker 1: but not who wins it. So the Celtics are better.

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Speaker 1: The Celtics have edges. The Celtics are gonna win the series,

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Speaker 1: but the Heat are gonna make this painful. It's what

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Speaker 1: they do, and the Celtics make it painful on themselves.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take plus two and a half. All

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Speaker 1: I need is to wins. I don't expect Miami to win.

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Speaker 1: I actually one thing I will say. Another one I

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Speaker 1: very much like is correct score after two games Heat

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Speaker 1: two one plus three fifty. I actually really like. I

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Speaker 1: like if I could parlay Heat two one plus three

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Speaker 1: fifty with Celtics to win the series, I'd be all

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Speaker 1: in on that. Because Jason, I think the Celtic the

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Speaker 1: heater taking Game one. I think the Celtics are gonna

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Speaker 1: find themselves once again being like what is wrong with

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Speaker 1: this team? And then they're win and finally and make

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Speaker 1: the finals again.

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Speaker 2: I am a thousand percent with you on this one.

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Speaker 2: I love that. I love that Miami plus two and

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Speaker 2: a half games, I to me, it's it's half the

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Speaker 2: messing around, which is absolutely true. I think you, I

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Speaker 2: think you really saw that identity get solidified against the Hawks,

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Speaker 2: like they just they cannot put teams away and they

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Speaker 2: have not put a team away since since the Brooklyn

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Speaker 2: Nets last year. To me, it's also that and and

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Speaker 2: I'm not I'm curious to hear your opinion on this,

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Speaker 2: but to me, Eric Spolser is the best coach in

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Speaker 2: the NBA. I think I think I think he's the

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Speaker 2: best in terms of making it in two ways, making

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Speaker 2: other teams play to their weaknesses, but also covering the

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Speaker 2: weaknesses for his specific team. And specific with Boston, you

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Speaker 2: can bait them into some things with heavy ball pressure

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Speaker 2: because they love they have a bunch of guys who

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Speaker 2: like to take pull of jump shots. To go with

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Speaker 2: heavy ball pressure and channel them into rim protection. They

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Speaker 2: tend to make poor rim decisions and they can get stagnant,

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Speaker 2: especially when they uh with Miami switching the way that

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Speaker 2: they do from time to time. I believe that Eric

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Speaker 2: Spolser is gonna make these do play to their ugliest tendencies,

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Speaker 2: which is naturally going to end up extending the series.

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Speaker 2: I love the way you pointed that out, like the

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Speaker 2: matchup might dictate how long the series goes, but the

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Speaker 2: better team is usually going to win, right And my

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Speaker 2: favorite example that is like that twenty fifteen calves like

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Speaker 2: Lebron's a nightmare matchup for them and his ability to

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Speaker 2: slow down the space at the pace and make them

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Speaker 2: get out of rhythm into attack matchups all over the floor.

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Speaker 2: But there was just never enough juice to have a

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Speaker 2: real chance to win that series. And so that makes

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Speaker 2: a ton of sense to me. They're gonna make them uncomfortable,

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Speaker 2: They're gonna switch and stagnate. They're gonna run them off

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Speaker 2: the three point line and try to channel them into

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Speaker 2: help at the rim and bait them into bad decisions

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Speaker 2: to me. To me, it's almost a guarantee that this

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Speaker 2: series goes long.

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Speaker 1: I have from earlier in the playoffs and they first

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Speaker 1: posted ECF. I grab Jalen Brown at a really long number.

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Speaker 1: He's still a very long number here based off of

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Speaker 1: kind of what you talked about. He's still plus five hundred.

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Speaker 1: That's for finals MVP, for easy, He's all the way

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Speaker 1: down to plus two fifty. What's interesting here is the

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Speaker 1: idea of Butler on Brown is not something that I

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Speaker 1: consider and it's a really good point by you. This

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Speaker 1: morning at shoot around at practice, rather bam Outebio said that,

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Speaker 1: you know he's willing and able. You know he is

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Speaker 1: open to guarding Jason Tatum at times if that's the

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Speaker 1: matchup that they want to go to, which makes a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense. If Horford starts and they don't go

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Speaker 1: double big, right, if you don't have to have Bam

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Speaker 1: on Robert Williams because you're gonna just need him for

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Speaker 1: the size, then you can probably get away with Cale

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Speaker 1: Martin on Horford. Horford's not going to post up Cale

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Speaker 1: Martin and just like go to work. That's that if

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Speaker 1: he were to this, that he would be like, sure,

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Speaker 1: we will accept that. That's fine with us. And so

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Speaker 1: the question if Butler does guard Jalen Brown, obviously that

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Speaker 1: gets a lot harder, especially with Brown struggles in terms

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Speaker 1: of his handle, right, Jimmy's gonna be really physical up

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Speaker 1: into him, cause him disruptions, He'll get him away from

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Speaker 1: his spots most most especially and make it harder on Jalen.

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Speaker 1: I do kind of let Jalen in terms of jail

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Speaker 1: Jason Tatum in games. In Game seven basically got past

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Speaker 1: all of the issues that he's had with his pull

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Speaker 1: up jumper. But that's been a problem for him over

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Speaker 1: the last really year since he suffered the wrist injury

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Speaker 1: last year, which was an under talked about kind of thing.

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Speaker 2: Oh I didn't know about that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he had a risk injury last year. It was

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Speaker 1: like real under the radar. I actually heard about it early,

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Speaker 1: like there were whispers about it earlier on, but it

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Speaker 1: wasn't anything. I felt confident in the bet and then

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Speaker 1: like after the finals, it was like, yeah, no, he

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Speaker 1: had like a pretty bad risk brain and had to

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Speaker 1: recover from it. And that's one of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: Boston fans have kind of been like had an eye

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Speaker 1: on some of his pull up shooting is he's had

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Speaker 1: like rist injuries tend to take a long time to heal.

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Speaker 1: Nicole Yo could just prove of that. He's he's dealt

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Speaker 1: with that as well. So Tatum's pull up numbers haven't

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Speaker 1: been awesome. He was elite in Game seven when he

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Speaker 1: absolutely cooked Joel Embiid, But like Jalen Brown's gonna have

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Speaker 1: a lot more of those opportunities, especially the heater playing

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Speaker 1: more drop than I'm used to them, seeing like they

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Speaker 1: are no longer like the we're just gonna switch everything

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Speaker 1: on you team, Like that's what this was in two

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Speaker 1: thousand than twenty honestly, and even last year is this

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Speaker 1: was just two teams being like, we're gonna switch everything constantly,

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Speaker 1: just switch with switch to switch, and it's all gonna

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Speaker 1: be tough one on one basketball, because that's how it goes.

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Speaker 1: Both of these teams have embraced a shallow drop a

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Speaker 1: lot more as this has gone on, But even then,

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Speaker 1: I kind of trust Jalen a little bit more to

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Speaker 1: attack those kind of spots. I don't mind taking Jalen there.

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Speaker 1: My question for you would be if they do move

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Speaker 1: Bam into guarding more of Tatum when it's one big

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Speaker 1: and Horford, how do you see that matchup? Complain now,

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Speaker 1: I don't.

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Speaker 2: Again, I understand Bam holding up well when they do

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Speaker 2: switch for whatever reason, But to me, I want to

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Speaker 2: get underneath Tatum and Brown. I want guards and ball pressure.

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Speaker 2: To me, that would be the best way to kind

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Speaker 2: of play them into their worst tendencies. So like I

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Speaker 2: and for the record, I prefer running drop coverage against

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Speaker 2: teams that aren't great pull up jump shooting teams, right,

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Speaker 2: and so with these, you know, Tatum Brown pick and rolls,

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Speaker 2: I would want bam at a Bayo kind of like

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Speaker 2: baiting them into tougher pull up mid range jump shots,

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Speaker 2: especially with Tatum who doesn't like to take them anymore.

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Speaker 2: Like I did you see that crazy stat I tweeted

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Speaker 2: out the other day that James Harden was attempting four

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Speaker 2: times as many mid range jump shots as Jason Tatum

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Speaker 2: is playoff right, it just doesn't make any sense, right,

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Speaker 2: And that's another big part of why I like the

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler on Jalen Brown matchup is like Jaylen Brown

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Speaker 2: loves to use physicality to get to these short little

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Speaker 2: fadeaways over both shoulders around ten to fifteen feet pull

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Speaker 2: up jump shots at ten fifteen feet. Jimmy's got more

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Speaker 2: capability of bumping him off of his base in those situations.

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Speaker 2: But as far as dam goes, yeah, like, I think

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Speaker 2: it'd be a waste to put him on the perimeter

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Speaker 2: against those guys, especially if they plan on running more drop.

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Speaker 2: I would want ball pressure, ball pressure, ball pressure, And

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Speaker 2: Caleb Martin to me, has actually done a really nice

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Speaker 2: job in this postseason run of getting up underneath ball

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Speaker 2: handlers and making them feel uncomfortable. I think that would

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Speaker 2: be the best path is just challenge their hand funnel

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Speaker 2: them into the paint, make them try to make good

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Speaker 2: rim decisions at against bam Adebayo. Counting on the consistent

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Speaker 2: rotations on the back end that you always get from

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Speaker 2: a Spolster team, Sposter's going to randomly throw zone at

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Speaker 2: him to to try to throw them off. Like, I'm

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Speaker 2: so confident that we're going to have extended stretches of

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Speaker 2: this series where the Celtics look out of sorts, because

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Speaker 2: that's just what Eric Spolster does. Remember that game last year,

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Speaker 2: I think it was Game four where it was like, Oh,

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Speaker 2: we're just going to pick them up that half court

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Speaker 2: all game long, and they're just they're just going to

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Speaker 2: turn it over every possession and we're going to get out.

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Speaker 2: You know, Like, there's going to be extended stretches where

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Speaker 2: they look like they're out of sorts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's the thing is the market can't

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Speaker 1: account for this gap. And also I will say this,

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Speaker 1: the market is probably not accounting for Tyler Hero. This cap.

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Speaker 1: I think, to me, this cap reflects that Tyler Hero

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Speaker 1: is still out and I'm like hero probably returns at

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Speaker 1: some point in this series.

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Speaker 2: Is he coming back?

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Speaker 1: You think? I think so. Guys get over fractures a

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Speaker 1: lot easier than they get over sprains, right, which is

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Speaker 1: a crazy but true thing, just like you break something

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Speaker 1: and you're able to come back from it. And I

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Speaker 1: think that if he's able to bring something just a

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Speaker 1: little bit scoring because they're gonna need it. Look at

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Speaker 1: the Heat. Scoring is absolutely it's really funny. So for example,

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Speaker 1: the first three games versus Milwaukee, their effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: And if you don't know, if you're not a big,

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Speaker 1: big stats guy, why would you look at a who

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Speaker 1: wants to look at a graph and a hoops combo?

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Speaker 1: If you're that kind of person, if you're like fifty

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Speaker 1: five percent or better, it's like, that's okay. If you're

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Speaker 1: in the sixties, it's really good. The first three games

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Speaker 1: of the Bucks series were sixty eight point five for

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Speaker 1: the Heat, sixty three point one, sixty three point one.

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Speaker 1: Here are the last four games for the Heat in

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Speaker 1: the nixt series forty two point eight, fifty four point seven,

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Speaker 1: forty nine point four, forty four point five. Like, the

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Speaker 1: Heat basically got the shooting that they needed. To pull

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Speaker 1: off the upset as an eight seed, got a Knicks

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Speaker 1: team that was not probably probably in my opinion, really

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Speaker 1: shouldn't have been there. And then they've got banged up

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Speaker 1: and worn out by Miami and got out coached by Spolstra,

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Speaker 1: and then like the Heat offense went back to what

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Speaker 1: they've been all season, but it didn't matter because they

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Speaker 1: already had a team on the ropes by the time

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Speaker 1: that they got there. So, like the thing is is

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Speaker 1: in this series, I honestly I'll be curious on your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on this, Jason. I think we're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: lot of blowouts because I think there's gonna be games

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Speaker 1: where Boston's is composed and the offense is functioning and

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Speaker 1: they're hitting shots and it's Celtics by fifteen. And then

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be games when the Celtics look like absolute disasters.

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Speaker 1: They're turning the ball over and the Heat have I

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Speaker 1: think the variance in this series is gonna be pretty high,

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Speaker 1: which is odd because the Heat had a record number

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Speaker 1: of clutch games this season. Clutch I think definitely leans

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Speaker 1: towards Miami. Like if Miami's gonna win the series, they

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Speaker 1: need more clutch games, but I kind of think we're

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Speaker 1: gonna see a lot of games where it's very tilted.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny. I have a couple of Knicks fans

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Speaker 2: that are on our a team at the volume, and

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Speaker 2: I had one of a message me like late in

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Speaker 2: the series, I think it was during Game five or

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Speaker 2: game six, and he goes, He's like, man, like, I

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Speaker 2: just can't believe how well Miami's been shooting in this series.

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Speaker 2: And I'm like, they're not really shooting all that well

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Speaker 2: if you look at me, look at it like this,

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Speaker 2: like I'm like, you must be forgetting the Milwaukee Bucks series,

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Speaker 2: or Jimmy Butler was making every damn pull up jump

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Speaker 2: shot that he took. There was like the part of

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Speaker 2: the reason that that Jalen Brunson possession took place where

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Speaker 2: he had the ball down two with fourteen seconds left

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Speaker 2: or whatever. Big part of that was Jimmy Butler got

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Speaker 2: to a couple of late pull up jump shots that

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Speaker 2: he was hitting against Milwaukee that he was not hitting

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Speaker 2: against the Knicks. I I agree. I think that we'll

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Speaker 2: see Celtics blowouts. I just don't know that Miami has

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Speaker 2: the firepower to blow out this Celtics team, and maybe

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Speaker 2: I'm wrong about that, and at the same time, like

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Speaker 2: I think that. I think that on the Miami front,

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Speaker 2: if Miami wins the series, which is I think you

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Speaker 2: and I both agree, is an extreme long shot, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna have a Game two the twenty eleven finals Dallas

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Speaker 2: Miami type of situation, like there's gonna be some game

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Speaker 2: that Boston has control over of and they're up fourteen

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Speaker 2: with seven minutes left, and the next thing you know,

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Speaker 2: it's like, like, uh uh, Missoula is calling a time

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Speaker 2: out because it's a two point game after another Jimmy

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Speaker 2: Butler pick at half court runout dunk, you know what

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Speaker 2: I mean, Like gonna they're gonna have to steal one.

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Speaker 2: And then to me, like that's kind of a smart

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Speaker 2: veteran team thing as well, where it's like, oh, it's

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Speaker 2: Game two, we've already stole Game one, let's punt and

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Speaker 2: not waste our older legs trying to keep this game close.

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Speaker 2: We'll let this one go kind of thing. So I

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Speaker 2: could see some blowouts in this series. I just don't

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Speaker 2: think Miami has the firepower.

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Speaker 1: I should be clear. A Celtics blowout looks like thirty

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Speaker 1: points a Miami blowout looks like twelve. That's exactly twelve points.

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Speaker 1: Is Kevin Love playable in this series?

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Speaker 2: See? This is the thing that freaks me out just

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Speaker 2: in general with Boston should they make the finals if

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Speaker 2: the Lakers get there. In my opinion, one big weakness

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Speaker 2: with the Lakers rosters containing dribble penetration with teams that

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Speaker 2: can space them out that consistently was a problem even

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Speaker 2: down the stretch of the season in the regular season

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Speaker 2: when they were trying to fight for play in positioning.

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Speaker 2: I freak out about their five out lineups without Horford

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Speaker 2: and Anthony Davis just being further away from the paint

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Speaker 2: and them needing to contain dribble penetration, and Boston's going

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Speaker 2: to be able to put Miami in some similar predicaments

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Speaker 2: that said, like, I just you could have said the

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Speaker 2: same thing about, like, oh, is Kevin Love going to

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Speaker 2: be able to stay on the floor as New York

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Speaker 2: is run in just a million Jalen Brunston picking rolls,

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Speaker 2: and it's like, actually, they did you know, is Kevin

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Speaker 2: Love going to be able to handle downhill rim pressure

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Speaker 2: from Giannis and Drew Holliday it's like Eric Spolster just

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Speaker 2: has found a way to make it work. I think.

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Speaker 2: I think in large part by simplifying his role, Like

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Speaker 2: you could tell they were really focused on him just

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Speaker 2: being a dominant rebounder in that last series, like as

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Speaker 2: long as you box out, we'll cover for you elsewhere

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Speaker 2: on the floor, like those kinds of things. And so

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Speaker 2: I just I have a feeling that Spulsure will find

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Speaker 2: a way. Maybe it's through a zone, Like maybe it'll

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Speaker 2: just because Miami Zone is like the only zone I've

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Speaker 2: seen that actually works. I don't know if it's just

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Speaker 2: because they practice it more what the deal is, But

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Speaker 2: I don't know if it's zone. I don't know if

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Speaker 2: it's just a lot of help and pick and roll

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Speaker 2: coverage or or just really good rotations on the back end.

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Speaker 2: But I have a feeling they'll find a way to

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Speaker 2: keep him on the floor.

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Speaker 1: All of that, too, is the somethings just don't run

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Speaker 1: a lot of pick and roll, but that's just not

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Speaker 1: who they are. They're built a lot more off of

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Speaker 1: perimeter action, moving the ball side to side, and then

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Speaker 1: you know isolation with Tatum and Brown and so you know,

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Speaker 1: in those situations, I don't know who the player is

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Speaker 1: that's going to get, you know, Love on him to

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Speaker 1: be able to really take advantage of that. If Smart

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Speaker 1: ends up on him on a switch, if they run

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Speaker 1: off ball screens, and sure like Marcus Smart might attack him,

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Speaker 1: He'll probably live with that. Like there's all these kinds

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Speaker 1: of situations where they can probably get by on the

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Speaker 1: offensive end. That'll be I think just kind of as

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Speaker 1: interesting in terms of what role Love plays. If he

402
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Speaker 1: can space the floor a little bit to be able

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Speaker 1: to get some of Boston from not collapsing at the rim,

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Speaker 1: that's obviously, I think really important. It is real anging

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Speaker 1: in that the sixer series was so demanding in terms

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Speaker 1: of the mechanisms of pick and roll with hard and

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Speaker 1: Embiid and how much like they were. One of the

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Speaker 1: reasons I like Boston and win the series after Game

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Speaker 1: five was I had no idea what they were doing

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Speaker 1: in game five, like their their their defensive coverage on

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Speaker 1: Joel Embiid was mind boggling, Like, hey, Joel, would you

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Speaker 1: like the exact shot that made you MVP all game?

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Speaker 1: We're just gonna give it to you. How about we

414
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Speaker 1: just give it to you the shot that made you,

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Speaker 1: m VP will give it to you all game. And

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Speaker 1: then they just tied it up in six and seven.

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Speaker 1: They did a really good job in both Game six

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Speaker 1: and seven of either blitzing the ball handler and bringing

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Speaker 1: the help side defender to tag Embiid on the short

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Speaker 1: roll or just hedge and recover and being really cognizant

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Speaker 1: of where he wanted to get that ball. This Heat

422
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Speaker 1: team is very different in terms of the dynamics of

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Speaker 1: how they run the offense. Uh so much of this

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Speaker 1: it really is. It's funny like six year Celtics was

425
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Speaker 1: like a tactical matchup of this versus that and this,

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Speaker 1: and like how are you going? Okay, you gotta do

427
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Speaker 1: this and then this, and then you gotta be here

428
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Speaker 1: and you gotta be in this position versus Harden and

429
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Speaker 1: make sure that you can recover and you got dre

430
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Speaker 1: PJ Tucker but don't let him get to that. And

431
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 1: then this series is basically just like I don't know, man,

432
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,919
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler might just do some shit. Like it's just

433
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 1: kind of wild, h is there? Let me ask you

434
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 1: this question. What is more? These two situations we agree

435
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 1: are unlikely, but I do want to get your thoughts

436
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 1: on it is it more likely that Jimmy Butler wins

437
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: Conference Finals MVP in a loss, or that someone other

438
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 1: than Jimmy Butler wins Conference Finals MVP for the heat?

439
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 2: You mean for the Celtics. No, for the heat? Okay, well,

440
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: isn't isn't bam at a bio like plus forty four

441
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 2: hundred or something insane like that, I would think. I

442
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 2: don't think it's to me. It's like the point totals

443
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,640
Speaker 2: are just like, even if Boston loses the series, Tatum

444
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 2: is gonna average twenty eight. Like like we can talk

445
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: all we want about the about the h the approach,

446
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 2: and like there are some shot charts. There are some

447
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: games where I watch a bad Tatum game and I

448
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: pull up the shot chart and I'm like, bro, it's

449
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 2: all it's all above above the break threes and shot Like, dude,

450
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 2: have some variants in your game so that you're a

451
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 2: little more less predictable. But the value is and this

452
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: is where the analytical approach has its has its advantages.

453
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: Is even in that kind of limited approach, he's just

454
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 2: going to get to twenty eight points just because of

455
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 2: shot value and his ability to get to the foul line, right, So, like,

456
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: I just don't see a universe where Boston wins the

457
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 2: series and Tatum is averaging twenty eight and doesn't win

458
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 2: the conference finals and MVP. So so from that standpoint,

459
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 2: I would think it'd be I think it would be

460
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 2: pretty unlikely that Jimmy would win as a loser.

461
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,320
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Speaker 1: All right, let's let's go to the Western Conference.

487
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 2: Oh, here we go.

488
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 1: Lakers Nuggets on base here in Denver. Not a Nuggets fan,

489
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: but I do cover the team. Lakers, as a seventh seed,

490
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:46,360
Speaker 1: have made the conference finals. We'll get into all sorts

491
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: of stuff of this fascinating series. The Nuggets have never

492
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 1: beaten the Lakers in a conference finals series and never

493
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 1: beat the Lakers in the playoff series. They are over

494
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 1: versus the Lakers all time. What's your best bet for

495
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: Lakers Nuggets?

496
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 2: Okay, I would bet Lakers four to two at plus

497
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 2: four hundred. I think that this team kind of reminds

498
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: me a little bit of Boston and that they have

499
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: the wildest oscillations between their best punch and their worst punch.

500
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: With Boston, I think it stems from arrogance. With the Lakers,

501
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 2: I think it stems from energy conservation. I don't think

502
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: it's a coincidence that not only have their series followed

503
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 2: identical pads in terms of wins and losses, but they

504
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 2: followed identical pads in terms of the close games. The

505
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: same games have been close game one, Game one, Game four,

506
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 2: Game four, right, and then pretty much everything else has

507
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: been blow out to it. And I think it stems

508
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 2: from Lebron James and Anthony Davis and these extended stretches

509
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 2: of physical exertion versus when they're more in a coasting

510
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 2: type of mood. So if the Lakers were to win

511
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 2: the series, I think it's extremely likely that at that

512
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: it's in six. There's even an even wilder bet you

513
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 2: can make plus twenty three hundred for exact series pat

514
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 2: Lakers win Game one, Nuggets win Game two, Lakers win

515
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: three and four, Nuggets win Game five, Lakers win Game six.

516
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: I have a feel like because if the Lakers, I

517
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: have a feeling the Lakers will bring a great effort

518
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 2: tomorrow night, which would mean that Game two, it would

519
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 2: be very difficult if they fell down one to come

520
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: back again and bring that energy because they just haven't

521
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: really brought consecutive dominant efforts yet in this postseason and

522
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 2: just what that means for Lebron and Anthony Davis and

523
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: their bodies. I'll say this though, because I'm I'm I'm

524
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 2: really excited to hear your take here because I have

525
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: a ton of Lakers optimism. I believe in this team.

526
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 2: I do that said. I know, I'm a fan. I

527
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: joke on my show this is my one blind spot

528
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 2: because my childhood fanhood of Lebron and the way that

529
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: that just sways everything that I see the game. I

530
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: am terrified of this Nuggets team. I have so much

531
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 2: respect for Nikola Jokic. I think there's a decent chance

532
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 2: that he just resoundingly outplays Anthony Davis, and if he does,

533
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: I think this could be over quickly. Which is why

534
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 2: my other best bet that I put was Nuggets to

535
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: win the series in five at plus four to ten.

536
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: Interesting and the path the path there would be the

537
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 2: Nuggets win one in two and then they get a

538
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 2: split in LA and then they close out in Game

539
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: five at home. I think if the Nuggets win this series,

540
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 2: I think it's quick. And if Jokic out plays Anthony

541
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 2: Davis to the point where he's in foul trouble or

542
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 2: they have to consistently send a ton of help in

543
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 2: post ups and in roll situations, I think they get

544
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: picked apart by the shooting and I think it becomes

545
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 2: an issue. But if Anthony Davis Stonewall's Yokic, I think

546
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 2: the depth of the Lakers roster, the Lebron James element,

547
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: I think could carry the Lakers through the day.

548
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 1: So I think I bet. I would recommend if this

549
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 1: is how you're feeling, if you're a Lakers better to me,

550
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: the best bet is Lakers. The win Game one, Lakers

551
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 1: will win the series. At plus two to eighty, you

552
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: get almost three to one on Essentially, this is like,

553
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: there's so many reasons to take this the Lakers, as

554
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 1: you mentioned, this has been the script for them. Balls

555
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: of the Wall Game one, steal Game one on the road,

556
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: completely surrendering crater A. Game two, don't care, got the split,

557
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: gonna go back, save them legs, go back home. Balls

558
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: of the Wall Game three, put the pressure on them

559
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: in game four, give up game five, finish it in six.

560
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 1: That's been their script through two rounds. If the Lakers

561
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: take game one, the Nuggets now have to win on

562
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: the road. They have been a bad road team all season.

563
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 1: They finished under five hundred. They are under five hundred

564
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 1: five and eight when Nikola Yoki is a dog on

565
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: the road. They are one and two in the playoffs.

566
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: In that situation, it is the question. A lot of

567
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: this gus get into what is more likely that the

568
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 1: Lakers steal a road game or the Nuggets steal a

569
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: road game. And if you believe in the Lakers enough

570
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 1: to think that they will steal one, then you should

571
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 1: absolutely be on Lakers game one plus two to eighty.

572
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: You can also do score after three games, as I

573
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, if you don't want to go into exactly

574
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 1: game one, if they well, they might lose game one,

575
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 1: but then come back and hit him in game two,

576
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 1: you can also getugget Lakers two to one at plus

577
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: one eighty six. That gives you a little bit more

578
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 1: room there. But I do think that plus two eighty

579
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: and game one before the Nuggets have a chance to adjust,

580
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 1: I think is really crucial. Neither of these is my

581
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: best bet for the series, because my best bet for

582
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: the series is gonna be good old fashioned minus one

583
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: and a half for the Domber Nuggets plus one fifty four.

584
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: I get the number one seed in the Western Conference

585
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: with home court to win in less than seven games.

586
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 1: I talked about this on buckets, and I want to

587
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 1: go through it right now. A big reason why if

588
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 1: you say, like you don't even think the Lakers can

589
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 1: push it to seven, here's the thing. Everyone that tells

590
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: you that they're taking X team and seven means I

591
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: don't know that's what that means. It means they're basically

592
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: a coin flip, and if they take the home team,

593
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: they're like, well it's a coin flip, but this team's

594
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: better and they're at home. Thanks bold stuff, Thanks for

595
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: really laying it out there. Most series don't go seven.

596
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: If they do go seven, it's because of things like

597
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: what we saw in this sixer series right where it's

598
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,959
Speaker 1: like the Celtics lose Game one without Joel Embiid playing

599
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: and then completely melt in Game five. Most scenarios they

600
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 1: do end in six. And for me, I do believe

601
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 1: in the Nuggets and home court. They've been so good

602
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: there all year. They've been so great in the playoffs.

603
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: They are such a beast. The series is tough for me.

604
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: It really is, because what this is is this is

605
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: history versus the basketball side. The history of this says

606
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: the Lakers are gonna win. The Lakers always win. That's

607
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: what they do. You could have bet my favorite NBA

608
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: betting stat since two thousand, you could bet blind the

609
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,479
Speaker 1: Lakers to win the finals every year since two thousand,

610
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: including a five year stretch which was the worst in

611
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 1: franchise history, and you'd be up money right now.

612
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: That's how much they win.

613
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: At the numbers that they get.

614
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: That said.

615
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: What I do think is interesting, though, is there is

616
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: like this idea of that's the narrative side of this,

617
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: so we get past like all the basketball stuff. This

618
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,479
Speaker 1: gets into like, okay, but the Lakers and like they

619
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 1: win and Lebron and do they win? If you go back,

620
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: the Lakers were favored in most of those series because

621
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: they were great teams. If you go back, here are

622
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: the four times that Lebron has won as an underdog.

623
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: He is won in the underdog as an underdog in

624
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: a series he's he's only been a dog outside of

625
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: the finals versus the Warriors a handful of times. But

626
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: the times that he's won as a dog, the twenty

627
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: eighteen Raptors Conference semifinals, That's right, the Raptors were favored.

628
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: This is where heads back and laugh in that series.

629
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 1: The twenty sixteen Warriors, obviously they were dogs in that

630
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 1: series and three to one comeback, the twenty twelve Thunder series.

631
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: They were actually dogs in that first heat championship, surprising

632
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: the true they were actually dogs of that Thunder team.

633
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: And the two thousand and seven Pistons Conference semifinals when

634
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: he went.

635
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: Well, they were dogs this year against the Warriors. Two

636
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 2: weren't they? Uh?

637
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 1: They were? I'm sorry, this is before the season, gotcha?

638
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: Got when is Lebron won as a dog before the season.

639
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 1: So like the history has kind of said that Lebron

640
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: has won when he's been a favorite, and when he's lost,

641
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: it's been because the other team is better, and that

642
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: to me does factor into this. Is like the books

643
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: still believe that the Nuggets are power rated better and

644
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: the reason that is because the Nuggets have been better.

645
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: It would be one thing if it was like, well,

646
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 1: the Nuggets were number one, but they've been only okay

647
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, but they've been great in the playoffs.

648
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: I'm really fascinated by the argument of trying to figure

649
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: out which of these teams is more real, because the

650
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: temptation is to be like, the Lakers just beat the

651
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: defending champions who had never lost in the Western Conference

652
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: playoff series. The counter argument is, the Lakers just beat

653
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: a team that went seven games with the Kings and

654
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 1: maybe should have lost, had a very middling, very middling

655
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 1: offensive rating the entire season, and the Warriors, and we're terrible,

656
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: terrible on the road all season. Now, the Nuggets are

657
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: not good, the Warriors were terrible. On the flip side,

658
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,959
Speaker 1: it's the Nuggets faced the Suns with Kevin Durant and

659
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: Devin Booker and a whole lot of nothing, and then

660
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 1: they face the Wolves, who know when really things are serious.

661
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: I actually think the Wolves probably were like a pretty

662
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 1: like a tougher matchup than probably it seems on paper

663
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: with a lot of the stuff that gets into this.

664
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: My biggest tactical question for you, I think you're you're

665
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 1: right in the Davis thing where another reason if you're

666
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: looking at Lakers and You're like, well, I don't want

667
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 1: to bet, like, I don't want to bet a number

668
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: of games. I just want to bet the Lakers to win.

669
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 1: But then number isn't great for a seven seed at

670
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: plus one thirty, I do think you can get value

671
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: on betting Anthony Davis to win Western Conference Finals MVP,

672
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: because to me, that really is, like so much of

673
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: the series is, if Anthony Davis is the best player

674
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: in the series, the Lakers are going to win because

675
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: it means that Jokic was not able to dominate and

676
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: Davis was hitting mid range jumpers. If Nikolea Jokic is

677
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: the best player in the series, the Nuggets are going

678
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: to win because that means the Lakers couldn't solve him.

679
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 1: And to me, that really is what so much of

680
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: this comes down to. Can can Jokic pull Davis out

681
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 1: far enough to help the back line so the Lakers

682
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: can't just clog the paint as they've dominated so much

683
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Can Yokic hit tough contest shots over

684
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,959
Speaker 1: Davis just to try and break a little bit of

685
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: what they want to do. There's been some numbers flowing

686
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: today about how much the Lakers doubled Jokic in the

687
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: regular season. Regular season is a different animal. I want

688
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: to ask you that question, how much do you expect

689
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: the Lakers to say to day Yokis to beat Davis

690
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: one on one and stay home, versus how much do

691
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: you think they bring help both in pick and roll

692
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 1: in post ups.

693
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 2: I think it starts with him leaving him on an island.

694
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: I went back and watched as much of the and all.

695
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 2: Of course, as is usually the case with this Lakers season,

696
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: all the footage involves pre deadline stuff. But I saw

697
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 2: it like Anthony Davis has a little bit of a

698
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 2: high center of gravity and Jokic doesn't have too much

699
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 2: trouble bumping him off of the spots. That freaks me out.

700
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: So I think that it's going to be an absolute

701
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 2: battle as it pertains to Anthony Davis trying to figure

702
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 2: him out over the course of the series. And that's

703
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: kind of where I see it. It's less to me

704
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 2: about game one game two, but at some point over

705
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 2: the course of the series, can Anthony Davis figure out

706
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: how to handle Yokic on an island? Because from there,

707
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 2: I think if they can guard the Murray Jokic pick

708
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 2: and roll two on two or Yokic post ups one

709
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 2: on one. I actually really like the Lakers' chances in

710
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 2: the half court to hang and be able to give

711
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 2: this offense some problems. The problem is is Jokic gives

712
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,760
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis issues on a couple of specific fronts. Anthony

713
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 2: Davis really struggles with physical offensive rebounding bigs that can

714
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 2: knock him off a position when he offers some sort

715
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 2: of help to a guard, right, so like he waves

716
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: a hand at a pull up shooting guard and the

717
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: dude just ducks in and hits him out of the lane,

718
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 2: gets an offensive rebound that can give him some problems.

719
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: Anthony Davis can struggle in transition running the floor and Jokic.

720
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: I mean the first matchup they had this year in Denver,

721
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 2: Jokic straight up dominated Anthony Davis just in transition by

722
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: pushing the ball up the floor, sprinting up and down

723
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 2: the floor for cross matches, and getting quick post ups

724
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: because Anthony Davis wasn't matched up. He's got a bunch

725
00:34:55,320 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 2: of unique things that will actually cause Anthony David problems. Now,

726
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 2: you said hitting mid range jump shots. You know what's

727
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 2: so interesting, and it's to me what makes this Laker

728
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: team so unique. Anthony Davis can get away with devoting

729
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 2: the line's share of his resources to the defensive end

730
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: because of the offensive versatility of this roster. I am

731
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 2: really curious to see. In my opinion, I actually put

732
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 2: this down as one of my best bets for Lebron

733
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: to average more than five point eight assists per game.

734
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: You can get that at minus one point fifteen right now.

735
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: And I look at it from the same point of

736
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 2: the Nuggets pick and roll coverage and the fact that

737
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: they're probably they had Aaron Gordon going over screens often

738
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: and in a traditional drop coverage Jokic a little bit high,

739
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: kind of like that similar high drop to what they

740
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 2: were running against the Suns with a lot of paint

741
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 2: attention behind him. Now, as I'm watching those foot that footage,

742
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 2: I'm seeing Patrick Beverley on the weak side and I'm

743
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: seeing Tory Brown Junior on the week side. So like

744
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: they're able to load up in a little bit of

745
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 2: a different manner in that footage. But to me, like,

746
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 2: I think you can get away on the offensive end

747
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 2: running everything through Lebron in the guards with token post

748
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: ups and touches for Anthony Davis, which allows him to

749
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 2: devote his attention to Jokic on the defensive end. So

750
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: to me, it's literally that simple. You laid it out perfect.

751
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: If Jokic can control defensively, or if Anthony Davis can

752
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: control Jokic on the defensive end of the floor, I

753
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 2: think that's enough to win the series. But like legitimately,

754
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 2: Jokic is equipped in a way that attacks a lot

755
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: of eighties specific weaknesses, so I would not be the

756
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 2: least bit surprised if this ends up looking a little

757
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 2: bit like a chem in the mid nineties, just running

758
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 2: through all the bigs.

759
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: I know the answer to this, but I'm very curious

760
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 1: to get your thoughts on it. How different is the

761
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: Yogic Davis matchup from twenty twenty in the Bubble.

762
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 2: I think it's completely fundamentally different. I think Jokic was ascending,

763
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: but I'm seeing a player that has a command of

764
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 2: the game that he didn't have back then, specifically as

765
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: it pertains to knowing when it's time to score the basketball.

766
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 2: One of my biggest things that you see it critical

767
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 2: of Yokic within the past, and you know, one of

768
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,720
Speaker 2: my favorite examples of that this year was the embid

769
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: game is like, sometimes the game calls for you to

770
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 2: be the aggressor. And I think that clicked a lot

771
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 2: in the Sun series in particular, where he was just like,

772
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 2: you know what, my team's best chance to score here is,

773
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,319
Speaker 2: I'm just bigger than all these dudes, So I'm I'm

774
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 2: going to get to these little pop shots and hook

775
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,959
Speaker 2: shots in the lane. Ironically, that's the thing that's missing

776
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 2: from Embiid in my opinion, is he just doesn't have

777
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 2: a reliable push shot hook shot in the lane that

778
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: he can go to that's not a jumper the way

779
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 2: that Jokic does. But I think Jokic is twice the

780
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 2: player he was in twenty twenty. What do you think?

781
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, that control of the game is a really good

782
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 1: way to put it. It's really to me, like what

783
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 1: defines greatness in the NBA is how much do you

784
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 1: control the game. And Jokic's ability to un like Katie's

785
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: talked about this in his postgame press conferences about Jokic,

786
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: and the other guys have mentioned it. You can't speed

787
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: him up, you can't speed him up, you can't slow

788
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: him down. Everything is what he wants to do. He

789
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: try and bring a double to get him a little frantic.

790
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: He's gonna read it and he's gonna make a pass.

791
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,879
Speaker 1: And oftentimes the biggest thing of this passing and it's

792
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 1: actually gonna be pretty Usually it's not because playoffs are

793
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: pretty simple. I think it's ConA be a little bit

794
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: more complicated in the series. One of the biggest best

795
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 1: things about Yogic is passing. He doesn't just make the

796
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: what I would refer to as the Houston Rockets pass,

797
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: which is like, oh, they collapse, I'm gonna kick to

798
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: a spot up shooter is he anticipates the coverage, the

799
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: close out to it, fakes it, and then finds the

800
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: cutter underneath on the second sequence. And like those little

801
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 1: plays are like so high level and they're very difficult

802
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 1: to get to. It's funny is like the Lakers are

803
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 1: so good at the base stuff that they're gonna have

804
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 1: to go to some of these secondary mechanisms to get

805
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 1: past all the Lakers very good rotations and sense of

806
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: spacing and things like that. What's interesting, I think is,

807
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 1: and this still remains true in the playoffs, when they

808
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 1: call Yogic scores more than thirty eight points. I include

809
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: this because like a thirty nine game. He had a

810
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: thirty nine point game, which is basically the same as

811
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 1: a forty. The Nuggets are one in three in the

812
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: playoffs when Yogic scores thirty eight thirty nine points or more, so,

813
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: the idea of making him a score has a lot

814
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 1: of validity to it. Now, one of the problems here

815
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: is like, if he's scoring, it's usually because the other

816
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 1: guys aren't hitting shots. So there's a correlation here, right,

817
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,240
Speaker 1: which is like, if other guys are scoring, he's happy

818
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 1: to get twenty five to thirty, even twenty to twenty

819
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 1: five and rack up fifteen assists, Like that's what he'd

820
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 1: like to play, Like Jokic's ideal game would probably be like,

821
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: honestly'd probably be like ten, twenty and twenty. But like,

822
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: if he's scoring, it's usually because it's needed and it

823
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: will be needed in the series. Like, you're absolutely right

824
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 1: that it is needed in the series. By the way,

825
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 1: when he has more than ten assists six and four

826
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, that question of Davis and if he

827
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: can handle him alone. Fouls are also gonna be a

828
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 1: big part of this too. Man Like Poy, he's got

829
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 1: really bad foul trouble in twenty twenty on. I mean

830
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 1: the the calls were I think not great like in general,

831
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 1: but that's not a surprise. Like this is the thing

832
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 1: with the Lakers is like Lakers fans will say they're

833
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: really physical. This is what they do. They they draw

834
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 1: fouls on you with their physicality. Absolutely true, it's about

835
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: the degree to which they do. Austin Reeves, guy, I

836
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be really important in the series. Like

837
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 1: we go through the guys that are gonna be important

838
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 1: in the series. I think it's like Aaron Gordon and

839
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 1: Austin Reeves. I do have this question for you. I

840
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 1: didn't think Delo was gonna be playable versus the Warriors,

841
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: and the fact that the Warriors couldn't play him off

842
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: the floor, I think it's a huge indictment where Golden

843
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 1: State was. Is the Delo playable in this series?

844
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 2: I would imagine. So he actually competed pretty well defensively.

845
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,160
Speaker 2: I thought there were there were a handful of missed

846
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:51,840
Speaker 2: box outs, miss rotations, bad transition defense possessions, but like

847
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: like he held up pretty decently well against Andrew Wiggins

848
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: in isolation situations. I thought he's kind of underrated big,

849
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 2: like he's a little bit big and strong. I've always

850
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 2: been more concerned with D'Angel Russell and his shot selection

851
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 2: and decision making on the offensive end of the floor.

852
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: The Lakers have actually managed to keep him playable. I've

853
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 2: never actually, in my time watching d'angela Russell with the

854
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,240
Speaker 2: Lakers thought, man, he's absolutely killing us on the defensive

855
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,879
Speaker 2: end of the floor. Now that remains to be seen

856
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,240
Speaker 2: with this Nuggets team. But again, that to me comes

857
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 2: down to the Anthony Davis matchup. Like if we have

858
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: to guard the pick and roll three on two and

859
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: we have to guard the post two on one and

860
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 2: d loo is running around in rotation, I think it

861
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: could be a problem, But I'm not. And this to

862
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 2: me is I think this Laker team in general holds

863
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 2: up pretty well against ancillary offensive pieces. This has been

864
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 2: a theme for them since twenty twenty. But like they

865
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 2: defended Klay Thompson phenomenally well, right, like they defended like

866
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 2: Jared Jackson, I thought they defended pretty well for the

867
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 2: most part. They figured out how to stop Desmond Bane

868
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 2: by the end of the Memphis Grizzly series, like they

869
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,720
Speaker 2: their guards Pete Ham usually has a scheme that works

870
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 2: for that specific player and his weaknesses. I'm less worried

871
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 2: about D'Angelo Russell and more worried about can the Lakers

872
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 2: play their wings, because with Jared Vanderbilt, it's an offensive limitation.

873
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 2: I believe that if Jared Vanderbilt starts, I wouldn't even

874
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 2: be surprised if you saw Nicola jokiccard him from time

875
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 2: to time. And then you put Aaron Gordon on Anthony,

876
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 2: David brotton Bracket you know in the post, or just

877
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 2: straight up double you're gonna but and then with the

878
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 2: Ruey hatcha Murra thing, it's the locking and trailing. Denver

879
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,879
Speaker 2: has so many screening actions that they run for Michael Porter,

880
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,479
Speaker 2: Junior Katavi's Caboll Pope and for Jamal Murray, and Ruey

881
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 2: struggles with screen navigation, and so that was how the

882
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 2: Warriors basically played him out of that series, was he

883
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 2: couldn't run off the screens. And then if you can't

884
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 2: play your two forwards, they have to downsize and they

885
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: have to go to the three guard lineups, and then

886
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 2: they start to really struggle with rebounding and they gave

887
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 2: up twelve offensive rebounds with their three guard lineup in

888
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: the first half against the Warriors. So I'm I'm like,

889
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 2: Darvin's so good at in the guards and being like, oh,

890
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: Dlo doesn't have it tonight, We're going heavy on Dennis

891
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 2: in Austin. Oh, Dennis doesn't have it tonight. We're going

892
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 2: heavy on d Lo and Austin. You know. But with

893
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 2: the with the forwards, if Jokic can play them off

894
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: of the floor, that's where I think the Lakers could

895
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,760
Speaker 2: run into some problems because now when they go small,

896
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 2: Lebron engaged to cover for that lack of size, which

897
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 2: can be a weakness for that group because they only

898
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 2: want to bring it when they have to, and so

899
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 2: that I'd be keeping an eye on Ruley and Vanda. Yeah.

900
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 1: On the on the other side, I don't then Nuggets

901
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: don't know what to do with Lebron, like they will

902
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: not They're not going to say that, but I'll just

903
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: tell you that they don't know what to do, Like

904
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:37,799
Speaker 1: AG's going to guard him, but if you run, if

905
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: he if he runs. Their base coverage is one four

906
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: switch one to five at level. Lebron is the best

907
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: ball handler in the league at this point. At reversing

908
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: to the weak side like he is. It's a laser

909
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:57,479
Speaker 1: every single time.

910
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 2: I'm sorry to cut you off, actually, because this is

911
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: directly related to that. Did you feel like the Phoenix

912
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: Suns left meat on the bone, picking you guys apart

913
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 2: and pick and roll with the weak side kicked passes.

914
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 1: I think what really kind of happened was we found collectively.

915
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: I think we found out that Devin isn't there yet

916
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 1: in that pass Kevin's never been really good at and

917
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: I only Kevin's ever Like, I think Kevin's a really

918
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: good passer in versus drop coverage, like he can make

919
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 1: multiple reads, but versus blitz coverage, he's always kind of

920
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 1: trying to like force his way out of it. Devin's

921
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 1: a really gifted passer, but we did kind of see

922
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 1: that heavy pressure. He was really frustrated with it. Like

923
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 1: it's kind of funny because it goes back to the

924
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 1: summer League don't double mething, but like Devin really struggled

925
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: making that. Now he did it, and then they found

926
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,240
Speaker 1: Landry Shammitt and like Shammitt had that huge Game four

927
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 1: where he is seventeen in part because of those shots.

928
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's that much meat on the

929
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 1: bone because I think from an NBA perspective, you're always

930
00:44:58,120 --> 00:44:59,720
Speaker 1: going to be like, I'm gonna take what the defense

931
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: gives me, right, And the Nuggets have gotten pretty good

932
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:07,399
Speaker 1: in their containment there. The problem is just like, look,

933
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: you can apply pressure, but it's Lebron He's six' eight

934
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: and a monster and one of the smartest basketball players

935
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: ever and Able like there was a time twenty eleven

936
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 1: ish where he would get in a lot of trouble jump,

937
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,880
Speaker 1: passing and then like by like twenty, fourteen that was.

938
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 1: Gone like he was like he can, jump he can

939
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: jump past whenever he wants, to, right like just fading,

940
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,399
Speaker 1: away jump pass, overhead, boom laser to this, corner kick,

941
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 1: out corner. Three and if That's dila Or Austin, Reeves

942
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 1: Lonnie walker Or, ruey any of those, guys that's a

943
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: high percentage look for A lakers team that needs high

944
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 1: percentage looks in the. Series like there is again we

945
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 1: get back to like the the interesting thing about these

946
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 1: two paths and very easy thing is The nuggets have

947
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: not faced anything defensively like These. Lakers The lakers have

948
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 1: faced nothing like what they're going to see offensively from.

949
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 1: This denvers of, course, Right so they got to get

950
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 1: their offensivefficiency, up which is WHY i think that that's

951
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: really key on. SWITCHES i do think That lebron's gonna

952
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 1: be able to. Hunt he's gonna be able to hunt Down.

953
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,400
Speaker 1: Jamal and if you hunt Down, jamal do you just

954
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 1: send the naked. Double if you send the naked, double

955
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 1: you wind up in the same situation where it's, Like,

956
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 1: okay who's. Open, Right The lakers have enough scorers to

957
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: make it at least like to be able to generate enough.

958
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: Offense their half court offense still isn't. Elite it's just

959
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 1: not like it's. Not this is not an elite half quart.

960
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: Offense they're gonna needed to create turnovers and force it

961
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: in transition Where denver has been really. Weak they've been

962
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 1: good in these, playoffs but that's a very big weakness for.

963
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 1: Them and then The lakers proved in twenty twenty they

964
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 1: can win that, way just push the ball and. Score

965
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 1: BUT i am really curious to see what they do

966
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 1: With lebron because you have these two kinds again kind

967
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: of competing factors of The nuggets don't have a good

968
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 1: option if he's able to Get Aaron gordon shook loose of,

969
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:53,800
Speaker 1: him and Even Aaron gordon's gonna have trouble because It's lebron.

970
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: Versus this is not The Lebron james that we've seen

971
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: over the Last cup like for the last two. Decades

972
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: this is a lesser version because of the foot injury and,

973
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 1: age and like that gap is probably going to determine

974
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 1: a lot of the. Series if he summons the, power

975
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: he can get them through the. Series if he, can't

976
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: then The nuggets offensive floor is high enough maybe for

977
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:14,399
Speaker 1: them to. Win.

978
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 2: Well, again if It's game six late in the, SERIES

979
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,359
Speaker 2: i have no doubt That lebron can tap into it

980
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: for one. Game so, yeah like expecting him to dominate

981
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 2: the series THAT i think is unrealistic at this. Point to,

982
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 2: me hedging is going to be a huge part in

983
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:32,479
Speaker 2: this series BECAUSE i believe That lebron demonstrated In game

984
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 2: six and has demonstrated in several stretches over the course

985
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 2: of this postseason that he's still an absolute handful in the.

986
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 2: Post but that, Said Aaron gordon's a much bigger and

987
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 2: stronger player Than Andrew wiggins's AND i actually really like

988
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,919
Speaker 2: that matchup For denver in the post If lebron tries

989
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 2: to work, there BUT i think he's going to be

990
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 2: doing a ton of what he did towards the end

991
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 2: of the, series which is calling Up Steph curry's, Man

992
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 2: Jordan poole's man into high screens and trying to get

993
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 2: downhill or get a switch. There and that that's where

994
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 2: you have to take advantage of the fact That austin in,

995
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 2: particular di'angelo And dennis are not great movement. Shooters they're

996
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: not guys that can quickly pick and pop to the

997
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,280
Speaker 2: three point line and get their feats At, Ironically Lonnie

998
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 2: walker is probably their best guard at pick and pop,

999
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 2: shooting which is why they ran so many of those

1000
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: guard to guard screens with him towards the. End but

1001
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 2: Like lebron's going to try to pick on On jamal

1002
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,280
Speaker 2: AND kcp a ton in the, post and the best

1003
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 2: way to cover THAT i think would just to beat

1004
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 2: a head hedge and recover and basically say a Dare

1005
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 2: Austin reeves or D'Angel russell to take a movement three

1006
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 2: going side to. Side that, said like if they, start

1007
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 2: If lebron starts getting the matchups he wants in the.

1008
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 2: Post that's WHERE i could see them really starting to

1009
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 2: slow down the pace of the game and bowlly him

1010
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 2: inside a little. Bit but THERE i, agree, like there's

1011
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,840
Speaker 2: no they have not faced a defense of this, caliber

1012
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 2: but The lakers have not faced an offense of this.

1013
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 2: Caliber that's WHY i think early in the series these

1014
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 2: games could have some funky. Results there's gonna be a

1015
00:48:57,920 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 2: lot of feeling each other out to start this. Series.

1016
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 1: YEAH i think the other thing is the bench rotations

1017
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 1: may beginning be interesting Because davis is basically his natural

1018
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: rotation is he's just gonna Mirror. Yokic they're both gonna

1019
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,479
Speaker 1: play all, first they're gonna come back in between ten

1020
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: and eight minutes in the second and fourth and fourth

1021
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 1: and then play the. Duration But lebron plays that stagger,

1022
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: rotation and that's where The nuggets have been at their

1023
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 1: most vulnerable is whenever The yokic is not on the.

1024
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 1: Floor what's interesting in the contrary is THAT i THINK

1025
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 1: i looked at this, morning The lakers have like a

1026
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: ninety eight point seven offensive rating when an eighty's not

1027
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 1: on the court in the, playoffs and like that's like,

1028
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 1: What but it's that's very. True, however maybe the series

1029
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 1: is easier because you won't be going Against Draymond, green

1030
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: and you won't be going against The grizzlies very good

1031
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 1: half court, defense and instead you're gonna be going against

1032
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,879
Speaker 1: Like Jeff green And Bruce, brown Like. Lebron if he's

1033
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 1: gonna have a big, series he'll be able to pick

1034
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 1: on that second unit because he'll have his choice of

1035
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,719
Speaker 1: DO i want to attack a Smaller Bruce brown or

1036
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 1: a Slower Jeff, Green and either one of those is

1037
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,120
Speaker 1: a mismatch for, him even in a diminished. State if

1038
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 1: you can't be those then, yeah they're in. Trouble they

1039
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 1: gotta win those. Minutes, Okay so you Like lakers and,

1040
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 1: SIX i Like nuggets and. Six we'll see how it shapes.

1041
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 1: Out As jason ten From Volume, sports you can find

1042
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 1: him On Hoops. Tonight make sure to follow him On

1043
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 1: twitter as well as in the episode. Description thanks for joining, us.

1044
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 1: Everybody we'll be back later this week with more. EPISODES

1045
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 1: i think we've Got, okay we've GOT nhl coming, up

1046
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 1: lots of. Stuff make sure to keep it here on

1047
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 1: The Action network. Podcast if you enjoyed this, podcast make

1048
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 1: sure check out. Buckets so OUR Nba betting, podcast daily

1049
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: podcast all throughout the. Week we've Got Conference finals previews.

1050
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: Up thanks for joining, us, everybody have yourselves a good.

1051
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: Day until next, time pleas get. Plucking Action network reminds

1052
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 1: you please gamble. Responsibly if you or someone you care

1053
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: about has a gambling, problem help is available twenty four

1054
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,240
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight Hundred gambler