1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,119 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 2: I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 2: Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, 4 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 2: finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, 5 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. 7 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: Right now, and this is important. You need to reset 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 2: for the weekend. You need to reset for the second 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: half of twenty twenty three, and particularly if you've not 10 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 2: participated in the seven tech stocks. Mike Wilson will brief 11 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 2: on the caution that is out there. He is at 12 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley. They're us equity strategists and has been. I'm 13 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: going to suggest cautious through thick and thin of this 14 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: pandemic and forward. Mike, what are you writing this weekend 15 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: to recalibrate a cautious call. 16 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, good to see you guys. I mean, our call 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 3: really hasn't changed. You know, we're very disciplined on price 18 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 3: and as you know, we got tactically bullish last fall 19 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 3: at thirty five hundred because that was a good price 20 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 3: and now or of course back to the high end 21 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 3: of the range, and that's not a good price, and 22 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 3: that's at the SMP level. That's not really what's been 23 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 3: interesting over the last six or seven months. As you know, 24 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 3: what's been interesting is what's going on under the surface. 25 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 3: I would say in the fourth quarter that was a 26 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 3: very hated rally because it was led by kind of 27 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 3: the old economy financials, industrials and energy materials. It was 28 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 3: all based on, you know, the China reopening story, which 29 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 3: was legitimate, and technology stocks obviously disappointed and they did 30 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 3: not trade well in the fourth quarter, So there was 31 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 3: a hated rally because that's what people own. 32 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 4: Now. 33 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 3: Of course, the SMP is training at the same price 34 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 3: it was in early December, we got cautious again and 35 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 3: tech is obviously going to the moon. And now this 36 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 3: rally is loved because these you know, this is what 37 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 3: people want to buy, is what people want to own. 38 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 3: Its a lot more in interesting and you know, kind 39 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 3: of exciting to own AI and technological revolution, and it 40 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 3: is to hold some those old economy stock that's you. 41 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 4: Know, well why do I want to own this long term? 42 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 3: So it's just an interesting development we would characterize this 43 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 3: as the bear market is continuing. 44 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 4: Okay, this is what bear markets do. 45 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 3: They they're designed to fool you, confuse you, make you 46 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 3: do things you don't want to do, chase things at 47 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 3: the wrong time, probably sell them at the wrong time. 48 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 3: And the overriding we think the overwriting driver. Okay, if 49 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 3: this year's rally has been increased liquidity. Liquidity has improved 50 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 3: dramatically both on a global scale, and the weaker dollar 51 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 3: is helped, that's going the wrong way now again. And 52 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: then of course, ironically, the banking failures that happened in 53 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 3: March led to an injection of liquidity from the FDIC 54 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 3: and the FED, and we think those things have really 55 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 3: conspired to drive the market. I mean, nobody talks about 56 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 3: the fathtic crypto is up sixty percent this year, okay. 57 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 3: And then the next one, of course, is the is 58 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 3: a tech world, So this is what's going on. We 59 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 3: think that the fundament cases not support you know, where 60 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 3: stocks are treating today, whether it's at the index level 61 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 3: or at the single stock level, and the second half 62 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 3: is going to be a bit choppier and probably downward 63 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 3: in the index. 64 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 5: Let's just talk about the index a little bit more 65 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 5: and great to have you with us as all ways, 66 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 5: particularly going into the long weekend. Mike, you really started 67 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 5: the debate this week on this program, and we reflected 68 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 5: on your note from over the weekend into Monday when 69 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 5: you said the following that there are many technical signals 70 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 5: that conflict with the idea that this is the beginning 71 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 5: of a new cycnical ball market. There was a short 72 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 5: list after that of those signals, and one was extreme narrowness, 73 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 5: poor breath. We presented that severe supermanium a peer of 74 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 5: yours over at Bank for America, and she said, narrow 75 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 5: breadth is not a precursor for doom and gloom. Michael, 76 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 5: just wanted to give you the opportunity to respond to that. 77 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 5: What is it about narrow breadth that you think signals 78 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 5: something at the index level? 79 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 4: Well, I think there's you could debate this one way 80 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 4: or the other. 81 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 3: Meaning, when you make a market low, you typically do 82 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 3: have you know, severely negative breadth. That is a good sign. 83 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 3: However the index is usually down with it. So we 84 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 3: think where we are is the index is telling you 85 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 3: things are rosy, things are fine, and the breath is 86 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,119 Speaker 3: telling you otherwise. And then when we put our fundamental 87 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 3: overlay on top of that, which is, you know, we're 88 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 3: way out of consensus now on the earnings front. Then 89 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 3: we can make the conclusion that the internals right, the 90 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 3: breath is being one of those, but the internals and 91 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 3: the leadership is telling you that growth is going to 92 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 3: be a problem in the second half of this year. 93 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 3: Whether that's an economic recession or not, doesn't it We 94 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 3: think it's going to be an earnings recession that's way 95 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 3: worse than what people are currently modeling. And like, I 96 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 3: want to go back to the beginning of the year. 97 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,919 Speaker 3: You know, you guys are good readers of our reports. 98 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 3: You remember in the beginning of the year, I was 99 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 3: somewhat nervous that everyone was in the same camp. 100 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 4: At that point. We were our view is very consensus. 101 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 3: On the fire and ice, you know, the tightening and 102 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 3: then the slow down, and so we were trying to 103 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 3: figure out, well, how could everybody be right? That doesn't work. 104 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 3: And so what we've done now is we've worked off 105 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 3: that oversoul condition. 106 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 4: And more importantly, now. 107 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 3: I would say the consensus is actually optimistic on earnings again, 108 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 3: and that's just where we completely disagree. 109 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 5: So Mike can we just build on the challenge to 110 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 5: the index level retesting the loads of last year, given 111 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 5: the muscle of five or so names doing just ridiculous 112 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 5: things of one hundred percent plus METSA and video, et cetera. 113 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 5: Is that a big enough challenge to the view that 114 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 5: we can retest the lows of last year. 115 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 4: Well, not necessarily note at all. 116 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 3: In fact, it kind of sets us up where it's 117 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 3: probably inevitable now because what's happening is you're you're basically 118 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 3: forcing people into these stocks at bad prices. Now. I mean, 119 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 3: you know, the evaluations last fall on these stocks in particular 120 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 3: was extremely attractive. And if you look at the performance 121 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 3: of all of these names, with the exception perhaps of 122 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 3: the one this week, which you know earnings are going up, 123 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 3: the earnings are not driving these stocks. It was one 124 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 3: hundred percent multiple expansion, which goes back to our gritty questions. So, look, 125 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 3: the price is wrong in our view because the earnings 126 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: are probably going to be wrong for most of these stocks, 127 00:05:57,839 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 3: not all of them, but most of them. 128 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 4: And so from here we think it is still a 129 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 4: stock picking game. 130 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 3: And of those six seven eight stocks, my guess is 131 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: two of them will probably be okay, and the other 132 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 3: ones will not because there's they are the economy. 133 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 4: Okay, they can't avoid the economic. 134 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 3: Slowdown and the top line slowdown that we see in 135 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 3: the second half of this year. 136 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 2: Mike, maybe a bit off your remit, but I got 137 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 2: to go here. Just percolating in the zeitgeist into June 138 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 2: is the once again debate of active versus index usage 139 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: in the equity market. Give us your update on the 140 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 2: value of active versus the value of index investing. 141 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 3: Really interesting confluence right now, because you know, you could 142 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 3: argue both are working at the moment, right I mean, 143 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 3: you know, having the right stocks in your portfolio has 144 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 3: been really the only way to make money this year. 145 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 3: The problem is is that those stocks are such a 146 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 3: big part of the index. The passive person could say, look, 147 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 3: my passive strategy is working as well, you know, and 148 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,679 Speaker 3: so we still think active will have a comeback here 149 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 3: as we go through the next couple of years. It 150 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 3: already is to some degree. But boy, it's you know, 151 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 3: it's the market once again. The market is doing a 152 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 3: very good job of kind of fooling us into whatever 153 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 3: we want to believe. We think active will be the 154 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 3: place to be for the next two or three years. 155 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 3: It's going to be a comeback there. 156 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 2: Mike, uh, dovetail this with Ellen Zettner. Take the recession 157 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 2: call of Morgan Stanley and dovetail into your caution on equities. 158 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so Ellen and team, I mean, they're not looking 159 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 3: for a hard landing, but they are looking for, though, 160 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 3: is a very sluggish economy. So there's sort of zero 161 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 3: percent P growth right now that you know, that's fine 162 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 3: if you still got price. Our view is that zero 163 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 3: percent GDP growth will lead to bad price, and we're 164 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 3: already seeing that in the good sector. And then we've 165 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 3: done some consumer work recently, which is we're starting to 166 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 3: see signs that even the high end is starting to 167 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 3: pull back on spending intentions on services. 168 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 4: So you know, services is seventy percent of the economy. 169 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 3: It's you know, goods are seventy percent of the S 170 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 3: and P five hundred earnings. So in other words, the 171 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 3: economy can stay kind of at zero, but that's not 172 00:07:57,880 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 3: going to be a good outcome for SMP ear needs. 173 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 6: And our view, Mike Debasi Lobster. 174 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 3: Well, we can't afford it because we're parish. You know, 175 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 3: I'm cheap anyway, So you know. 176 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 5: Mike, we'll try and hook you up with one. Thanks 177 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 5: for repairing this morning. We appreciate it, Mike Wilson that most. 178 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: Cares about economics, fans investment or that, as you know, 179 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 2: over the years I've made clear, the Bank of England 180 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,479 Speaker 2: simply does it better. Maybe it's because it's a surprisingly 181 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 2: new public institution versus the FED and all the codified 182 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 2: history of the Fed. But what they do, more than 183 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 2: anything is they take in people with different views. I 184 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 2: think of Adam Posen now at the Peterson Institute. Excuse me, 185 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 2: the Internet, I I f I'll get it right, International Economics, 186 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 2: Peterson International Economics in Washington. I think of David blanche 187 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 2: Flower at Dartmouth and now they go brilliant and the 188 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: number of months by bringing in somebody really original in 189 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: economic analysis and policy discussion, Meghan Green of the Croal 190 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 2: Institute and of course at Brown University. She will join 191 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: the Bank of England. And obviously with those constraints she 192 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 2: cannot speak about the Bank of England. She cannot speak 193 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 2: about the United Kingdom. We checked where they're entourage, she 194 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: cannot speak about the future of Tottenham's Spurs, and she 195 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 2: can definitely not speak about the politics between Cambridge and 196 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 2: Oxford is just too deep and too dangerous to go 197 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:40,719 Speaker 2: to this morning. Megan, congratulations on this hugely important appointment. 198 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: I wanted just to talk today about the American economy 199 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 2: and the certitude we have of guessing vectors of inflation. 200 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: You're expert at the history of the study of that. 201 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: Can we actually gain a vector of inflation? 202 00:09:58,640 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 3: Yeah? 203 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 7: Look, the inflation data was always going to be bumpy 204 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 7: coming down, and that's what we're seeing. But I think 205 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 7: what we can gauge is sort of underlying trends and 206 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 7: look for signs of persistence of inflation. In the US, 207 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 7: the core capital goods data that just came out surprised. 208 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 7: On the upside, that's about seventy percent of fixed investment, 209 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 7: So that suggests that demands pretty strong in the UK economy, 210 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 7: and core PCEE was stronger than many had hoped. So, 211 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 7: you know, I wouldn't read too much into one data point, 212 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 7: but it does suggest that the FED isn't done. So 213 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,839 Speaker 7: even if the FED does end up pausing, I don't 214 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 7: think it's finished here. We've seen that corporate earnings have 215 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 7: been pretty strong. That means that there's a lot of 216 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 7: labor hoarding that may well continue keeping the labor market strong. 217 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 7: That again keeps demand strong and keeps upper pressure on inflation. 218 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 7: So I think that the Fed's got more work ahead 219 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 7: of it. 220 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 2: One of the Meghan Green realities is plain language. You 221 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 2: actually speak in English, Thank you for that'll help you 222 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 2: with the Bank of England. You speak of the is 223 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 2: a weird time in history. Define that phrase. 224 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 7: So it's a weird time in history. Just given the 225 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 7: success of shocks that we've had on the economy between 226 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 7: a pandemic a war, a lot of the indicators aren't 227 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 7: really responding, particularly to tightening of monetary policy, as one 228 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 7: might expect. And the labor market here is a great example. 229 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 7: The labor market is holding up freakishly well given how 230 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,439 Speaker 7: much aggressive tightening there's been in the US, and as 231 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 7: I just said, you know, that keeps demand really strong, 232 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 7: and so the Fed's trying to sort of kill off 233 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 7: demand to bring it back in line with supply. So 234 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 7: we can see price stability, but it's just not transmitting 235 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,719 Speaker 7: monetary policies, just not transmitting into the real economy as 236 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 7: we expected it might. 237 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 2: Donnie Constanin was on earlier with Miszouo, also out of Oxford, 238 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 2: and he made very clear as there is a partition 239 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 2: between demand driven inflation and supply side inflation. Obviously that's 240 00:11:56,080 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 2: a pandemic inflation. Are we still living the pandemic in 241 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 2: the wall of data scene in America this morning? Are 242 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 2: we still living the pandemic in our funny savings ratios 243 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 2: and what that means for income and spending? 244 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 8: I think we are. 245 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 7: It's a bit too early to say how long that 246 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 7: will actually last, but we're seeing it in consumption patterns. 247 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 7: We're seeing it in people's decisions to leave jobs to move, 248 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 7: We're seeing in the real estate market. So the pandemic 249 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 7: is very much still with us, and I think some 250 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 7: things will structurally change going forward as a result of 251 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 7: the pandemic. We're just not sure exactly what it is. 252 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 7: If you look at the labor force participation for different demographics, overall, 253 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:37,599 Speaker 7: it's recovered. 254 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 6: In the US. 255 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 7: It took a really long time, but there are differences, 256 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 7: particularly among older workers, and I think that will be 257 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 7: with us for a while. That said, we really struggled 258 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 7: with supply constraints, not just in the labor market, but 259 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 7: also of course with global supply chains during the pandemic 260 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 7: and an immediate aftermath of the pandemic, and if you 261 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 7: look at a bunch of gauges for global supply, chain 262 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 7: tightness actually eased quite a lot. So I think that 263 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 7: piece has eased, and yet inflation remains stronger than what 264 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 7: we'd hope. 265 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 2: Okay, inflation is stronger than we hope, but there's a 266 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 2: belief there of getting back now. I don't want to 267 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 2: get in trouble with Bank of England here, but the 268 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 2: former Vice chair of the of the FED, Richard Clarita, 269 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 2: and others are debating a two percent idea. Would you 270 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 2: suggest the greater theory of our macro policy forward is 271 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 2: going to be an adjustment of any given central banks 272 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 2: band or target that they're getting back to. 273 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 7: So we may we're certainly beginning a debate about that, 274 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 7: I think among the intelligentsia, but I don't think we've 275 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 7: made much progress on that. Some are calling for a 276 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 7: higher inflation target in the US, in particular, you know, 277 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 7: somewhere around three percent. The FED and most other major 278 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 7: central banks have defined price stability as is the metric 279 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 7: target around two percent. What the academic literature shows is 280 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 7: that actually until inflation gets above four percent, most people 281 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 7: don't really notice it. Yeah, so I'm not sure they 282 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 7: don't notice inflation at least in terms of you know, 283 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 7: they hit to their actual standards of living. So whether 284 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 7: it's two percent or three percent, that may be more 285 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 7: of an academic debate. 286 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 1: You absolutely nailed this. 287 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 2: I got one minute left back, and I'm sorry, but 288 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: this is research out of VCU that Olivia Blanchard is 289 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 2: calling sentient inflation. Are we anywhere near sentient inflation where 290 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 2: we're just comfortable with our inflation rate? 291 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 7: So no, I don't think we are near an inflation 292 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 7: rate that we as the public or that the Fed's 293 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 7: willing to tolerate. In the US, I think I think 294 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 7: it will need to come down closer to the two 295 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 7: percent target before the Fed's really ready to hang up 296 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 7: its boots and be done with it. So, as I said, 297 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 7: we might get a pause in June, but I wouldn't 298 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 7: take a pause to mean that the FED is done. 299 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 7: I think there's more work to be done. 300 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 2: Megan very quickly here, and I'm really trying to stay 301 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 2: away from the Bank of England police here, and I 302 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: think I'm safe going here as well. One of the 303 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 2: great things about Fenway Park, Meghan Green. And it's not 304 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 2: Narrogance at Lagger Beer, it's the Yankee Lobster Company. Can 305 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 2: you give us a rating on the lobster roll from 306 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 2: the Yankee Lobster Company at Fenway Park? 307 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 7: I can't tell me because why would anyone ever get 308 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 7: anything but a Fenway Frank at Fenway Parks? So I've 309 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 7: never had it. I stick with Fenway Franks. 310 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 1: Bottle that and you will see that. 311 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 2: As she enters the August doors of the Bank of England, 312 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 2: Meghan Green, congratulations from the Crawl Institute. Joining us now 313 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 2: Janette Lowe, Managing Director Policy Research at Strtigas it is 314 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 2: a Baird company. 315 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: Jeannette, what is a distinction for you? What will you 316 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: listen for this weekend? 317 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 9: So first, thanks for having me. So we do have 318 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 9: a deal coming together, which is good news. There are 319 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 9: still a lot of details that need to be worked out. 320 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 9: As you continue to hear that they've made progress and 321 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 9: they are limiting the number of issues that still need 322 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 9: to be taken into account and finalized among the negotiators. 323 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 9: So it does seem like we are getting closer. We're 324 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,359 Speaker 9: definitely going to be looking at how this deal is structured. 325 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 9: This is definitely smaller than what the Republicans initially proposed. 326 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 9: They were looking at ten years of discretionary spending PAPS. 327 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 8: We might be more at two years. 328 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 9: So that how that's going to be structured is going 329 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 9: to be important, I think for the markets, because there 330 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 9: is this anticipation that we're going to get some austerity 331 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 9: out of this deal. But even if we don't get 332 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 9: austerity out of this deal, we still think there's more 333 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 9: for school austerity in the years ahead. 334 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 2: For the United States, this is really really important right 335 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 2: where I want to go, and this is literally the 336 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 2: history learned. 337 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 1: At Richmond and BEU. 338 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 2: What's the difference between our austerity and what's say the 339 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 2: United Kingdom is living. They seem to be drowning in 340 00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 2: an austere psychology. I don't see that. In the last 341 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 2: eight or ten years in Washington, I see you know, 342 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 2: if it moves, spend, it spend every dollar. 343 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: What's changed. 344 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 9: So what we've seen is that, you know, obviously the pandemic, 345 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 9: you've had extraordinary fiscal stimulus come into and that the 346 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 9: government provided, and then obviously we've had inflation come on 347 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 9: top of that. What's really been the key change now 348 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 9: because to your point, we have been able to just 349 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 9: spend and cut taxes quite freely for the past number 350 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 9: of years, but now that we've had to interest rates 351 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 9: prise so much that is now increasing the cost of 352 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 9: the US debt, and so net interest costs for the 353 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 9: US are now increasing. We have seen historically that once 354 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 9: those rates hit fourteen percent of tax revenues, financial markets 355 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 9: begin to impose austerity on policy makers. We are currently 356 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 9: at twelve point seven percent, and we anticipate that we 357 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 9: will get to fourteen percent by the end of the year, 358 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 9: and so that is where we're really looking. That's going 359 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 9: to start to squeeze the federal budget. So even if 360 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:04,000 Speaker 9: this deal is not particularly austere, which given the current 361 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 9: contours it doesn't seem like it will be, we are 362 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 9: still looking at the fact that over the next couple 363 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 9: of years, the policymakers still have a number of other 364 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 9: times that they're going to have to come into play 365 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 9: to think about how do they bring the US fiscal 366 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 9: budget into a better alignment to kind of handle some 367 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 9: of these costs that they're dealing with. 368 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,679 Speaker 5: Jenna, can we just finish on the X date, the 369 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 5: so called X state the Treasury doesn't have a precise 370 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 5: idea of when that force. We're all guessing KIA they 371 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 5: have some information about tax receipts. It can be very 372 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 5: lumpy sometimes. How are you reading the tea leaves of 373 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 5: that situation. 374 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 2: Right? 375 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 9: So, I mean, I think all the negotiators want to 376 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 9: operate off the fact that we have June first as 377 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 9: the X state. Now there always is a little bit 378 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 9: of flexibility with that. Treasury wants to have a little 379 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 9: bit of a buffer so that if we were to 380 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 9: cross over the X state, you would still have maybe 381 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 9: some cash to still continue to make payments before the 382 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 9: Treasury Department actually run out of cash. Maybe they might 383 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 9: be able to make it to g third, maybe not. 384 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 9: They did put out an auction this morning that does 385 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:06,640 Speaker 9: make it seem like they might have a little bit 386 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 9: more cash at the X state. But I think the 387 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 9: more important thing is is that their negotiators are focused 388 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 9: on the X state, and if we were to cross it, 389 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 9: we do think that would be quite a market jolt. 390 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 9: It would actually help with get a deal if we 391 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 9: still hadn't gotten one at the same time, but I 392 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 9: think that the actual loss of cash is less important 393 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 9: than that X state right now, just for policy makers 394 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 9: to be able to control their. 395 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 5: Focus Jenna, just to finish on that point when they 396 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 5: start to think about prioritizing spending. I think there can 397 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 5: be some confusion between going through the X state and 398 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:39,360 Speaker 5: defaulting on debt obligations. 399 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 6: There can be two different things. 400 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 5: How do you think the treasury will start to prioritize 401 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 5: spending as we if we go through that date? 402 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 4: Exactly. 403 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,239 Speaker 9: It's a great point because the big thing that we 404 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 9: have been trying to focus on is the fact that 405 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 9: this would naturally not be a default if we crossed 406 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 9: over the X state. Treasury we believe would prioritize making 407 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 9: interest and principal payments on treasuries to be more about 408 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 9: prioritizing spending and payments to bills that need to go out. 409 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 9: At some point. We still think that the treasury would 410 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 9: prioritize things like Social Security, Medicare, defense, but then it's 411 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 9: about whether or not you pay some other federal contractors 412 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 9: on time. 413 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 8: So it seems more like a you. 414 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 9: Know what we would see when we have a government 415 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 9: shut down with trying to move payments around, but it's 416 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 9: not an actual default on US treasuries. 417 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 5: Thank Claire and that abulary shed it. Thanks pretty and 418 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 5: Jeanette love that that's tatigue. 419 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 2: This is what matters, folks, because you're living the tech 420 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 2: dream like we are, and mister Ives is leading away 421 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 2: with optimism on their profitability. They're enduring profitability is at 422 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 2: Webbush Securities in Kooper Tino yesterday they saw what you saw. 423 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 2: What does the NVIDIA four point four standard deviation leap 424 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 2: mean for alphabet and particularly what's it mean for Apple? 425 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 10: Look, I mean this in my opinion, it's eight hundred 426 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 10: billion of income and I'll spend now over the next 427 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 10: decade for big tech. When you look specifically at the 428 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 10: read through for Apple, I mean there's no better read 429 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 10: through what I believe. And we'll see more of the 430 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 10: developer conference in terms of overall demand and this AI revolution, 431 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,120 Speaker 10: it's opening up a total addressable market for these big 432 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 10: tech players that wasn't there six months ago. 433 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: Is it profitable? 434 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 2: Ad that's at the top of the income statement, that's 435 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 2: cap bax off cash flow, But will it be profitable? 436 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,360 Speaker 10: It is a gold mine in terms of profitability from 437 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 10: a margin perspective, because that's right now. N Della and Redman, 438 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 10: I mean they're popping the champagne because for every dollar 439 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 10: that you're gonna see a AI spend, that's margin incremental 440 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 10: fifteen percent incremental margin. So I think what's starting to 441 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 10: happen with the stocks is that Street's starting to look 442 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:52,640 Speaker 10: through the trajectory. You're looking at higher margin business growth 443 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 10: that's really gonna be You could really count in two 444 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 10: hands the amount of players that are gonna benefit in 445 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 10: the first second derivative, And when you saw it from 446 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 10: the video, it shows this is a gold rush that's real, 447 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 10: not hype theme maybe like Metaverse, you know, and Crypto 448 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 10: and some of the others. 449 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 5: So we've got into the long weakend, and there's going 450 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 5: to be a bunch of family members of people who 451 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 5: follow this stuff, maybe even by it, who are going 452 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 5: to hear of this company for the first time. It's 453 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 5: been performing really well for a long time. But for 454 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 5: a lot of other people, they might not be familiar 455 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 5: with this name. It's not exactly a household name outside. 456 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 6: Of Wall Street. Can you run people through what they 457 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 6: actually do and what they're leveraging here. 458 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 10: So when you think Navidia, in my opinion, I viewed 459 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 10: as the hearts and lungs the app percenter of Really 460 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 10: from a chip perspective of AI and what i'll call 461 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 10: big data technology, nothing works without the video chips, Microsoft, Google, Amazon. 462 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 10: It's all feeding off the VIDIA. And that's why I 463 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 10: kind of view as the foundation. The best derivative in 464 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,640 Speaker 10: terms of what you see as a forecast, what's coming 465 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 10: down the pike three six, nine months from now is 466 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 10: what you saw from Jensen with the four billion dollar 467 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,959 Speaker 10: guidance raids, because that now is going to feed into Microsoft, 468 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 10: It's going to feed into big tech, and I think 469 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 10: you know, in my opinion, it's not just about the guidance. 470 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 10: This is a historic day that shows the AI revolution. 471 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 10: I believe it's probably the biggest transformational tech trend I've 472 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 10: seen since covering tech in the late nineties. 473 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 5: That's a lot of hyperbolic language, So let's strip some 474 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 5: of that down and talk about valuations. When it comes 475 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 5: to momentum in names like this, how relevant are valuation 476 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 5: metrics given the story that you're describing in this big 477 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 5: future that you're expecting. 478 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,360 Speaker 10: I think when you become laser focused on valuation over 479 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 10: the next year, you would have missed basically every transformational 480 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 10: tech stock the last fifteen years. So in my opinion, 481 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 10: to look at that, it's looking at the leaves instead 482 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 10: of forest through the trees. But I look at it 483 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 10: like you could look at an incremental five to ten 484 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 10: dollars per share of earnings power when you start to 485 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 10: rejector it out, you know, as Tom and I have 486 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,239 Speaker 10: talked you on Apple, I mean I view Apple right 487 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 10: now in some of the parts, I could argue that 488 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 10: AI adds another They're thirty to forty dollars per share 489 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 10: to the Apple Story app. 490 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 6: We're doing with AI? What's that about? 491 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 10: Well, I think we're going to see the developer conference 492 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 10: because ultimately they're going to really right now the billions 493 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 10: even spend on an AI, it's going to be another 494 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 10: use case that you're going to be able to deploy 495 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 10: within their install base within those two billion iPhones. 496 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 5: But when we be talking about sirion steroids, what are 497 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 5: you describing here? 498 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 10: So from an AI perspective, they're really going to be 499 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 10: from a user perspective, be giving users the ability to 500 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 10: on the services side, from a cloud, from music, from 501 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 10: TV to more and more of the devices cross pounding 502 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 10: between different devices that you're going to be able to 503 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 10: get different information within the actual Apple user. And I 504 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 10: think what Cook's going to talk about is AI could 505 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:53,240 Speaker 10: be really another foundation, another monization of the Cupertino growth story. 506 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 2: You're the Ober Bowl, you got a lot of people 507 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: taking shots at you, and any research report halfway through 508 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 2: there's three paragraph some total risks. What's the lead total 509 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 2: risk paragraph? 510 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 1: To AI? 511 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 10: Biggest risk is basically what I view is the US 512 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 10: China decoupling, because you could argue that that's a risk 513 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 10: from an AI perspective, and today Taiwan to risk. 514 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 1: Because this stuff is actually made off TSM. 515 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 10: I mean, look, I was just in Taiwan a week 516 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 10: and a half ago. I think right now it's Barkworths 517 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,399 Speaker 10: and Bye. In my opinion, in terms of as an 518 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 10: overall risk, biggest risk is just companies don't spend. They 519 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 10: had to heighten the economy ultimately, but as of right now, 520 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 10: what we're seeing is, you know, I think this is 521 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 10: right now a green light to own tech, you know, 522 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 10: in terms of what we view and I think this 523 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 10: is just I think the start. I think texts being 524 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 10: up another ten to fifteen. 525 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: Applebite margin thirty two cents on the dollar. What does 526 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 1: AI do to that? Out five years. 527 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 10: That basically increased it by about five hundred BIPs. 528 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 1: So what is that some of the parts did you say? 529 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: Up some of them? 530 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 10: Some of the part you can say, Apple, it could 531 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,199 Speaker 10: add thirty to four dollars per share as it all 532 00:25:58,280 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 10: gets monetized into the base. 533 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 6: It's amazing, isn't it. I've heard it easy to sit 534 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 6: here and just be smug. 535 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 8: You know. 536 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 5: I reflected on this a couple of times in the 537 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 5: last few years, and once more recently. There's this great 538 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 5: exchange Dan, and I'm sure you've seen it between an 539 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:17,199 Speaker 5: analyst on Wall Street, bullish on the Internet, and a 540 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 5: journalist from sixty minutes. And the journalist from sixty minutes 541 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 5: is sitting with this analyst on Wall Street and saying 542 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 5: Amazon's worth more than Sears. Does that make sense? 543 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 9: You know? 544 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 5: He's so he's so convinced he's right about Amazon just 545 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 5: being this bubble and Seas being you know what Sears was. 546 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 5: And I'm just trying as hard as I can to 547 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 5: be open minded about this moment. At the moment, Dan, 548 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 5: any reflections on this period and that one. 549 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,199 Speaker 10: I mean, this period reminds me of what I've viewed 550 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 10: coming out of the Apple launch with jobs in seven 551 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 10: and it reminds me of my visits with e commerce 552 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 10: companies in late nineties. In terms of so I would say, 553 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 10: there's only two other times that I would compaired to this, 554 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 10: and I believe that's why Nadella, that's why Cook, that's 555 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 10: why Jentsen are going after as your by recommendations. 556 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 2: Built half the houses in the Hamptons, I mean anything 557 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 2: over five thousand square feet. 558 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 1: They got a breastplack on it. 559 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 2: Thank you, Dan, Because well, would you like to weigh 560 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,959 Speaker 2: in on the lobster roll debate in the Hampton's here? 561 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 2: I mean you've got a little bit of experience at that. 562 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 10: I do look super bullish in the lops of roll 563 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,440 Speaker 10: in Hampton's, but I continue believe the best loops of 564 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 10: roles are a six one seven. 565 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,720 Speaker 1: Area could so help in Boston. You like it with 566 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 1: the hot butter the cold. 567 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 10: I did look and even though I'm a Long Island guy, 568 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 10: I'm more of a six one seven when it comes 569 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 10: to ops rolls. 570 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 1: Johonna's no idea we're talking. I mean, I mean you 571 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 1: don't have to go to. 572 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 6: Maine to get the proper lobster in Boston. I'm very 573 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,400 Speaker 6: well traveled. Thank you, but I will set. 574 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 2: Farawoo Durgen Parks years ago. Could you imagine what the 575 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 2: waitress would do to John Fairwood your accent? 576 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: Who are you. 577 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 10: But the guy? The guy's a legend. 578 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 6: It doesn't matter where where you tell him. You clear 579 00:27:58,400 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 6: that up. 580 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 5: I just got this message from Mandolai on Twitter, and 581 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:02,719 Speaker 5: thank you for writing game, because a lot if you've 582 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 5: given us recommend are we recommendation? Loves the landing in Clinton, Connecticut. 583 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 5: Oh yes, looks like this little shack by the water. 584 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 6: It looks fantastic. 585 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 2: Jonathan emails in surf Avenue, Coney Island. I'm actually down 586 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 2: there a couple of times a year, after thought forces 587 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 2: me to go down. 588 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: Nathan's there. It is one, one, two too. 589 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 10: And there's some under there's some under the radar lops 590 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,239 Speaker 10: or rule places and Hampton Bees and not in the 591 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 10: core Hampton's, you know, some places a little. 592 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 1: Off the grid out there. 593 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 10: A research report on I could and maybe thing and 594 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 10: and maybe a Chad gpt angle as well. 595 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 6: Very cold, this might that happen. 596 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 11: Of wet bush. 597 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 2: We're gonna get through this very quickly because every moment's important. 598 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 2: In Monaco and John Ferrell's far more abrupt than I 599 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 2: am can say is in every sport there's someone that 600 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 2: transcends the day to day grind of the sport. 601 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 1: You have your heroes. 602 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 2: Maybe it's Michael Jordan and basketball. Maybe it's a guy 603 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 2: named Judge for the New York Yankees. Daniel Ricardo is 604 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 2: so large for Red Bull and for F one racing. 605 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 2: Anne Hathaway keeled over at the met Gala when she 606 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 2: met him the other day. 607 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 6: I bet she did. 608 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 1: She Ann Hathaway. 609 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 2: Fell Ivan Goods fell apart. 610 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 6: Hardaway was the fanboy hit, not Daniel. 611 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: You know what the problem is. 612 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 2: He's wearing Tom Brown at the met Gala, Thank you 613 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 2: Vogue for the images, and. 614 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 1: He puts on a fake bow tie. Can you talk 615 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: to him, John, when you're in Monico this weekend. 616 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,239 Speaker 2: We need Ricardo in a real bow tie, not a 617 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 2: pretend bow tie. 618 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 6: Tie by you. 619 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 5: We can sew a twhim right now, Daniel on place 620 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 5: to site, joined us guy and get into the Rice 621 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 5: weekend in Moniccau. Daniel, wonder for to catch up with you, mate, 622 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 5: Just talk to us about how special race weekend is 623 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 5: in Monakau. 624 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 12: I thought we were just going to talk about both eyes. 625 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,400 Speaker 12: I I, well, let's talk about Monaco. It's put it 626 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 12: this way. I've been coming here now for thirteen fourteen 627 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 12: years and it doesn't get old like that. That feeling. 628 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 8: I don't know. Monica is just it's so special. 629 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 12: It transforms into this, honestly, like this magical place for 630 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 12: the race that rhymes. 631 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 8: And you have to. 632 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 12: I feel like everyone has to experience Monica Grand Prix 633 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 12: at least once in their life. 634 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 6: It's pretty surreal, Daniel, just to build on that. 635 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 5: One thing for us, as we've discussed Formula one, it's 636 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 5: explosion in the United States with with your boss, mister 637 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 5: Horner others as well, is whether we resolute in the 638 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 5: heritage of the sport as we expand in places like Vegas, 639 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 5: Miami and elsewhere. 640 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 6: How do you feel about that? 641 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 12: I think there's look, they're always I think needs to 642 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 12: remain a place for the as you say, like the 643 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 12: historic venues, you know, yeah, your Monico's, You're I guess 644 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 12: if it's Spa in Belgium or Silverstone Monza. So these 645 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 12: places for me should always have a presence on the calendar. 646 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 12: But I also love going to new places and I think, 647 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 12: you know, how we're able to open ourselves up to 648 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 12: new markets now and see the growth in the States. 649 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 12: For me, I love because I really enjoy spending time 650 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 12: in the States, so having. 651 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,680 Speaker 8: Like three races there is pretty unreal. 652 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 12: So I'm I'm somewhere in the middle where I'm definitely 653 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 12: open to having new venues, but I think you still 654 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 12: have to keep those core few. 655 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,560 Speaker 8: They shall always remain if we can. 656 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 5: I'd love to talk about your future as well. You're 657 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 5: a super charismatic guy. Your personality, as I'm sure you're aware, 658 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 5: has transcended the sport with what's happened on Netflix and beyond. 659 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 5: But Daniel, I know deep down and you're a racing driver, 660 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 5: and I want to understand from your perspective how frustrating 661 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 5: it's been just been on the outside, on the fringes 662 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,320 Speaker 5: of the sport being the reserve driver. What it's like 663 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 5: being in the simulator is if it's anywhere near to 664 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 5: what it's like actually sitting in the car. 665 00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 12: I think this year certainly serves a purpose for me. 666 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 12: I did need to kind of, I guess, remove myself 667 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 12: a little bit from well, yeah, literally, I guess from 668 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 12: the driver's seat, just to in a way like, in 669 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 12: simple terms, probably just fall back in love with it 670 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 12: again and to really like miss the sport. I'd come 671 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 12: off like a more difficult kind of twelve twenty four 672 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 12: months like competitive wise, and I was starting just to 673 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 12: just have too many bad days where I needed a 674 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 12: bit of a reset and a refresh. 675 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 8: So I'm getting that this year. Sure it is frustrating. 676 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,480 Speaker 12: To be on the sidelines and to watch, but that's 677 00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 12: also building, like this fire and that desire back. 678 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 8: So the plan is to find myself a seat next year. 679 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 12: And but I don't I don't want to just be there, 680 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 12: you know, I don't want to just get a seat, 681 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,520 Speaker 12: you know, to say I'm an F one driver, I 682 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 12: want to find my way back to a podium. 683 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: And Daniel, you're in the in between age. 684 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know much about F one driving, 685 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 2: but I've got a lionso making a splash this year 686 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 2: at forty something years old. 687 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: You got a lot of young turks following behind you. 688 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 2: Tell us the experience value, whether it's Miami or Monaco, 689 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 2: what do you what do you sell to a new 690 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 2: team or even the Red Bull when you're you've got 691 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: a lot more experience, How does that matter in a 692 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 2: given race, including this weekend. 693 00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think the little experience is I think in 694 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 8: this sport as well a lot of sports. 695 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 12: But it's it's very valuable because you know, it comes 696 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 12: in terms of on driving, on on track situations. Of course, 697 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 12: the more you can read a situation then that can 698 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 12: obviously help. But also then building a car or helping 699 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 12: the guys that build the current design the car, helping 700 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 12: them with feedback and understanding. This helps the team ultimately 701 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,720 Speaker 12: progress and move forward. So that's the value I guess 702 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 12: in experience. You know, I'm thirty three at the moment. 703 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 12: As you mentioned Alonso, he's in his forties now and 704 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,239 Speaker 12: he's having one of the best years. 705 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 8: Of his career. 706 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 12: So that's encouraging for me because there is days you 707 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 12: feel a bit old. Then seeing someone like him, you're like, oh, 708 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 12: I feel young again. 709 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 1: So yeah, look at the end of the. 710 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 12: Day, it's how bad you want it, and look, I'm 711 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 12: still in shape, and if I want it, then I 712 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:39,759 Speaker 12: believe I'll get back to it. 713 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,120 Speaker 2: I'm the ugly American learning about Formula one, and John 714 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 2: Farroh has been great about explain to me the red 715 00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:49,760 Speaker 2: Bull distinction. I was comparing them to the West Coast 716 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:55,280 Speaker 2: Eagles of Australian Football, who are in last place right now. 717 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 1: You've been red Ball. 718 00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,080 Speaker 2: Since you are like fifteen years old. Sixteen? What's the 719 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 2: Red Bull Pixie Dust? 720 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,239 Speaker 12: Well, I don't know if that was a jab at me, 721 00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,480 Speaker 12: because I love the Eagles and yes they're having an 722 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:17,839 Speaker 12: absolutely terrible season, but yeah, Red Bulls certainly, Yeah, they're 723 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 12: the opposite right now and they've they've been look for. 724 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:21,879 Speaker 8: Me growing up. 725 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 12: They were the program, you know, that was the that 726 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 12: was the franchise if you will, that everyone wanted to 727 00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 12: be a part of and signed for. You know, they 728 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,359 Speaker 12: had all the resources to progress you up the ladder if. 729 00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,320 Speaker 8: You were having the results. 730 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 12: So that for me is like the family that gave 731 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 12: me the opportunity and now being back in the family, 732 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 12: it's like it feels like like it's the biggest family 733 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 12: I've ever had in racing and the place where I 734 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:49,440 Speaker 12: feel like I belong. 735 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,680 Speaker 8: So right now, like that's my that's my dream. 736 00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 12: Is to be back here with this team racing and 737 00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,480 Speaker 12: hopefully winning another Monaco one day. 738 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 5: You think it's potential to get a again at Red 739 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:05,080 Speaker 5: Bull Racing, Daniel or you're looking out swear, I. 740 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,400 Speaker 12: Think, log I in this sport, I know things can 741 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 12: change so quickly, and even in at the end of 742 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 12: twenty eighteen. 743 00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 8: You know, when when I moved. 744 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 12: On to Reno, people probably never ever thought they'd see 745 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,320 Speaker 12: me wearing a red bull polo shirt again. So things, 746 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,359 Speaker 12: things certainly change and can happen, so never say never. 747 00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,240 Speaker 12: I'm also just like, look, if I focus on myself 748 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,720 Speaker 12: and apply myself and keep training, keep working hard, then 749 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 12: anything could happen. 750 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,319 Speaker 8: So yeah, and it helps when you got you know, 751 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:36,720 Speaker 8: good looks in this sport. 752 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 5: So of course, like Charles Leclair, I was just wondering, 753 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,160 Speaker 5: I never speak a bit of Italian. You've you've got 754 00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,320 Speaker 5: that Italian blood running through your veins. Can you imagine 755 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:51,439 Speaker 5: being in the red outfit over a Ferrari I look. 756 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 8: I again, never say never. 757 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 12: I feel like it probably would have happened by now 758 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:01,400 Speaker 12: if it would have, so, yeah, that one's probably more slim. 759 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:06,479 Speaker 8: But honestly, this is a love to be here. That's 760 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:07,839 Speaker 8: that's that's right. 761 00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:09,799 Speaker 5: App That's a nice place to leave it. Daniel, this 762 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 5: was a pleasure, a privilege. If you make it to 763 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 5: New York drop By, we'd love to catch up with you, 764 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,960 Speaker 5: Daniel Ricardo, that you bring out halfway think of course, 765 00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 5: bring out to and TK is going to teach you 766 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,920 Speaker 5: how to do it the Boats. 767 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,560 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and 768 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday 769 00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the 770 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In. 771 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:36,760 Speaker 1: And the Bloomberg Business app. 772 00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,920 Speaker 2: You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always 773 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:42,480 Speaker 2: I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. 774 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg