WEBVTT - BBO Columnist Mohamed El-Erian Talks Jobs Data

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>The Job's Report came out just moments ago, and it

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<v Speaker 2>came in like this, one fifty one, just a small

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<v Speaker 2>downside surprise. We were looking for one sixty. Lots of

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<v Speaker 2>numbers to talk about. El swear to do that right now,

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<v Speaker 2>we can bring Mohammad al Aaron of Queen's College, Cambridge

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<v Speaker 2>into the program. Mohammed, Welcome to the program, sir. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>get to that Job's report. What's your interpretation of things?

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<v Speaker 3>I think you captured it well when you said, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>no big news here. The only one thing that I

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<v Speaker 3>would be torturing is the labor force participation.

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<v Speaker 1>But everything else came in as expected.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think everybody's writing saying what's more important, what's

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<v Speaker 3>ahead of us?

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<v Speaker 1>Not this report?

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<v Speaker 4>That said Muhammad, We've been talking a lot about the

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<v Speaker 4>momentum in the US economy and the fact that it

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<v Speaker 4>takes a long time to turn things around. Is there

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<v Speaker 4>any part of this report that makes you concerned about

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<v Speaker 4>the level of exceptionalism that we're coming off of into

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<v Speaker 4>this period of certainty?

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<v Speaker 3>Not in this report, Lisa, but in a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>other data. There is, you know, the edge of the

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<v Speaker 3>US has been predictability, has been transparency, and you're starting

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<v Speaker 3>to see more and more business step back, not just

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<v Speaker 3>on a short term basis, but really think how much

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<v Speaker 3>longer do I need before I figure out what's my

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<v Speaker 3>operating environment?

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<v Speaker 1>And that builds on itself really quickly.

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<v Speaker 3>So you know, the risk here is that below the

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<v Speaker 3>economic exceptionalism, which is strong economic performance, strong acid price performance,

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<v Speaker 3>has been this notion of the US edge, and.

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<v Speaker 1>I worry that this edge is being eroded right now.

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<v Speaker 4>So Mohammed, are you saying it's the death of US exceptionalism.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm saying it's under enormous pressure. We still have attributes

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<v Speaker 3>that other countries, you know, would dream of. So you

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<v Speaker 3>don't kill the US economic exceptionalism, but you could put

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<v Speaker 3>it on pause as people try to figure out what

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<v Speaker 3>the operating environment is.

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<v Speaker 2>Muhammed's worth five six weeks into a new administration. Has

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<v Speaker 2>that much changed that quickly in such a short amount

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<v Speaker 2>of time, So I think.

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<v Speaker 3>There's been lots of changes. Just go to Germany and

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<v Speaker 3>see what's happening there. Look at the debate there. It's

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<v Speaker 3>been a spotnik moment for Germany in terms of defense spending,

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<v Speaker 3>infrastructure spending. John, all I can tell you is that

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<v Speaker 3>all the consensus trades at the beginning of the year

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<v Speaker 3>have been upended, every single one of them currency weights,

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<v Speaker 3>relative US equity performance to the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 3>I can go across the board, every single consensus trade

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<v Speaker 3>has been upended, and that tells you that there has

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<v Speaker 3>been significant change, which.

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<v Speaker 4>Raises a question about how much this is a trade

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<v Speaker 4>and how much this is a fundamental shift that can

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<v Speaker 4>actually get implemented in economic data. That takes time, and Stephanie,

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<v Speaker 4>I would ask you that how long is the transmission

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<v Speaker 4>mechanism for some of these things at a time when

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<v Speaker 4>there are some fundamental policy shifts that will take time

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<v Speaker 4>to implement, but it takes even longer time to ripple

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<v Speaker 4>through the underlying data and the underlying sense of strengths.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, to take a couple of months for us to

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<v Speaker 5>start to see it reflect on the data. Of course,

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<v Speaker 5>for example, today the February data looked just fine. The

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<v Speaker 5>March data are going to start to reflect this, and

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<v Speaker 5>I would expect in the next three months we'll start

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<v Speaker 5>to see the real impact. So, for example, the impact

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<v Speaker 5>from tariffs, it takes about three to six months to

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<v Speaker 5>work its way into the CPI data, so that's when

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<v Speaker 5>we start to see that. The payrolls numbers we're going

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<v Speaker 5>to start to see in the next couple of months

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<v Speaker 5>because the job a lot of the job cuts are

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<v Speaker 5>fairly immediate, and then you'll see the government contractors as

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<v Speaker 5>a result the fallout from that afterwards. So I would

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<v Speaker 5>expect in six months time we'll see a lot more

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<v Speaker 5>of this truly reflected in the data, but we'll start

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<v Speaker 5>to see it in the next couple of prints.

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<v Speaker 4>Kathy from an investment perspective and Muhammad was talking about

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<v Speaker 4>how the policy shifts have been pretty dramatic and the

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<v Speaker 4>market is trying to be a forward looking prognosticator.

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<v Speaker 6>How do you make bold moves?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you just hide out in cash?

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<v Speaker 4>Do you keep your allocations? I'm serious, it's sort of

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<v Speaker 4>such a volatile time with sort of the reality checks

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<v Speaker 4>coming out where there isn't that much news in the

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<v Speaker 4>economic data.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you know, I don't think cash is the solution

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<v Speaker 6>because you know that it gives you some optionality. So

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<v Speaker 6>building some liquidity I think is a good idea, and

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<v Speaker 6>I think people undervalue liquidity in their asset allocation when

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<v Speaker 6>things are good, and we've had this long stretch of

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<v Speaker 6>everything's great and who needs liquidity? Now I think you

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<v Speaker 6>do need liquidity, but we are also keeping our benchmark duration,

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<v Speaker 6>like right at benchmark, we're not extending yet. We hope,

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<v Speaker 6>we hope to see on opportunity, but there's too much

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<v Speaker 6>noise right now to take that risk. And then we're

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<v Speaker 6>saying up in credit quality because you just don't have

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<v Speaker 6>enough excess return there to justify taking a lot of

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<v Speaker 6>credit risk. And we don't know what industries are really

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<v Speaker 6>going to get hit. Some industries are going to suffer,

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<v Speaker 6>and we do expect some spreads to widen as a

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<v Speaker 6>result of that.

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<v Speaker 2>Europe's had a long stretch of everything's bad, and that's

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<v Speaker 2>changed pretty quickly. Maham, it's come to you on that.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember in early November, shortly after the election, you

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<v Speaker 2>said to us on this program, that sucking sound you

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<v Speaker 2>hear is capital coming in from the rest of the

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<v Speaker 2>world into the United States. That sucking sound we heard

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<v Speaker 2>this week was capital gun elsewhere. And we've heard that

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<v Speaker 2>a lot throughout the year so far. Mohammed, what do

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<v Speaker 2>you think about that reversal in flows that a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of people have identified recently, and how sustainable do you

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<v Speaker 2>think it is?

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<v Speaker 3>So that reversal makes sense given what has happened over

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<v Speaker 3>the last few weeks, is it sustainable?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, John, You know.

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<v Speaker 3>The jury still out as to whether Europe is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be able to go from words to actions. It's

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<v Speaker 3>not easy politically, it's not easy socially. They have governance issues.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'm not sure that sucking, the reversal sucking sound,

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<v Speaker 3>if you luck, is going to continue for a while.

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<v Speaker 3>But I understand why, because there's been a shock to

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of the conventional wisdom on the US and

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<v Speaker 3>on Europe.

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<v Speaker 4>Muhammed, has there been an end to the sucking sound

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<v Speaker 4>from the United States?

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see the data.

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<v Speaker 3>I suspect you'll see that there's certainly less fewer influence

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<v Speaker 3>coming into the US. But has it completely stopped. I doubt,

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<v Speaker 3>I really doubted. The US has some attributes that are

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<v Speaker 3>very difficult to mess up. So the US is still

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<v Speaker 3>you know, whether you want to call it the cleaner,

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<v Speaker 3>sturdy shirts or whatever, but it's simply not as clean

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<v Speaker 3>for outsiders as it was a few weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 4>But Muhammad, where was everyone the president was talking about

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<v Speaker 4>these policies.

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<v Speaker 5>For months leading up to the election, and then talking

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<v Speaker 5>about these policies for months between the election and inauguration.

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<v Speaker 5>Everyone knew what his plan was.

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<v Speaker 4>Why is everyone shocked?

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<v Speaker 3>Sequencing and you talked about it earlier today, So we

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<v Speaker 3>know the five areas in which he's going to move

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<v Speaker 3>to our unambiguously beneficial to the economy. Three have good

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<v Speaker 3>and bad to them. There's a journey issue in those,

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<v Speaker 3>and the hope and the market expected that the sequencing

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<v Speaker 3>wouldn't be what it is now. What you're getting now

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<v Speaker 3>is okay, we've got to get go through the detox,

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<v Speaker 3>we've got to go through the disturbances, and then we

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<v Speaker 3>will get the good. The market expected the good to

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<v Speaker 3>come much earlier, therefore offsetting the bad, and that's not

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<v Speaker 3>what has happened.

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<v Speaker 2>It's definitely not in your head away. That's how it's speaken.

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<v Speaker 5>You agree, absolutely, we were expecting tariff to become a

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<v Speaker 5>bigger thing for later in the year to tie to TCJA.

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<v Speaker 5>They're coming much earlier. This has a legitimate impact on

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<v Speaker 5>the economy. And by the way, the uncertainty is even

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<v Speaker 5>greater than anyone had anticipated. So to the point earlier

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<v Speaker 5>on capex being sort of stalled out here. It's hard

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<v Speaker 5>to make any investments when you don't even know what

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<v Speaker 5>the tax rates are going to be from a tariff perspective,

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<v Speaker 5>and then they change day to day.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll reacting to the payroll report next week. Is the

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<v Speaker 2>CPI number that comes on the twelfth on a Wednesday, Mouhammed,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to come to you just on a final question,

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary best in yesterday at the Economic Club in New York,

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<v Speaker 2>SETI blin team Transit trade to get the band bank

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<v Speaker 2>together at the Federal Reserve and look through any inflation

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<v Speaker 2>pop coming off the back of the tariffs. I just

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<v Speaker 2>wonder how you feel about Team Transitory getting the band

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<v Speaker 2>back together, joh.

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<v Speaker 3>I'll go back to what Stephanie said. There was price

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<v Speaker 3>passed through from tariffs. Companies are much more agile in

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<v Speaker 3>how they think about passing on prices than they were before.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think, you know, if Team Transitor gets back together,

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<v Speaker 3>I wouldn't have them commit to too long a playlist.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a good way of putting it.

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<v Speaker 2>Muhammad, We'll leave it there, thank you. Sir Muhammad al

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<v Speaker 2>Aerian of Queen's College, Cambridge on the Federal reserve on

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<v Speaker 2>the jobs data and this market as well. And a

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<v Speaker 2>special thanks to Stephanie Roth WILLF Research and Kathy Judges

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<v Speaker 2>at child Swap