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Speaker 1: Strap on your parachute. It's time for What Goes Up

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Speaker 1: with Sarah Ponza and Mike Reagan. Hello and welcome to

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Speaker 1: What goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly Markets podcast. I'm Sarah Ponzac,

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Speaker 1: a reporter on the Cross Asset Team, and I'm Mike Reagan,

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Speaker 1: a senior editor at Bloomberg. This week on the show

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Speaker 1: Goodbye Hello, we'll recap what drove markets in the crazier

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Speaker 1: that was, discuss where we stand now, and look ahead

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Speaker 1: to the new year. Spoiler alert, our guest shares the

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Speaker 1: key thing the market is missing. He says the old

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Speaker 1: adage don't fight the fed is on its last legs. Well, Sarah,

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Speaker 1: thank goodness on his last legs. As you point out,

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Speaker 1: goodbye twenty. I never thought we'd we'd lived to see

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Speaker 1: the day when this year year ended. Uh, it's the

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Speaker 1: year that felt like two decades. Absolutely absolutely um. And

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Speaker 1: we'll of course close out the show today with our

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Speaker 1: tradition The craziest thing I saw in markets this week, Sarah,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a little a little teaser on mine.

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Speaker 1: It's something for the crypto aficionados out there. I know

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Speaker 1: we have a few of them in the listenership, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like we don't give them the content they crave.

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Speaker 1: So my crazy the thing this week is Crypto. Well,

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Speaker 1: I will say, I don't think we've been able to

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Speaker 1: go through the last five episodes or so without mentioning Crypto.

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Speaker 1: So Crypto aficionados that do listen to the podcast, You're welcome,

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Speaker 1: cannot be avoided. Made made itself unavoidable. But uh, this

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Speaker 1: week on the show, a new guest for us. We're

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Speaker 1: very happy to have him. Uh. He was the strategist

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Speaker 1: for a long time at Kenner Fitzgerald. He this year

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Speaker 1: started his own firm called Alpha Omega Advisors. He's the

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Speaker 1: CEO and founder of that firm. His name is Peter Ceccini. Peter,

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Speaker 1: welcome to the show. Thank you for having me, Mike

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Speaker 1: and Sarah. So, Peter, let's let's start with that. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of our listeners will remember you

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Speaker 1: was the strategist at Canner. But what's tell us about

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Speaker 1: Alpha Omega Advisors. What you started this year? This project? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's it's been an awful lot of fun. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's an independent research and advisory firm. Um and uh,

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Speaker 1: it's it's enabled me to uh focus on a number

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Speaker 1: of my passions, UM, to do a bit of a

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Speaker 1: bit more writing on topics uh that weren't necessarily of

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Speaker 1: interest to institutional clients. UM, albeit many of those clients

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Speaker 1: are obviously consumers of my research. I've also partnered with

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Speaker 1: um Rosa and Rubini, which is no real Rubini's firm.

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Speaker 1: I do quite a bit of writing for them as well.

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Speaker 1: I am writing a book and I'm having a wonderful

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Speaker 1: time doing doing that. So I've also I'm sitting on

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Speaker 1: a number of boards right now which has been a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun. UM. One in particular, called Encino is

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Speaker 1: a clean energy firm which does environmental testing UM and

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Speaker 1: providing a bunch of advisory work on a spoke basis

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Speaker 1: to both hedge funds as well as two companies. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the book, I assume that's a romance novel. Yes it is.

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Speaker 1: It's all about my romance with the Federal Reserve. So

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Speaker 1: what we all need, it's what we all need right now. Well, well, Peter,

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Speaker 1: congratulations on it all. Absolutely, I would. I imagine it's

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Speaker 1: been quite the year to go off on your own

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Speaker 1: in many ways, and I was actually hoping that we

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Speaker 1: could start by reflecting and looking back at I keep saying,

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Speaker 1: but I feel as though if you had told someone

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Speaker 1: what was going to happen at the start of the year,

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Speaker 1: that we were going to see the unemployment rate shoot higher,

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Speaker 1: that people are going to be stuck at home, what

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Speaker 1: businesses we're going to have to deal with, and maybe

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Speaker 1: left out what happened with the federal Reserve, what happened

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Speaker 1: with fiscal policy, it would have been really hard to

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Speaker 1: imagine the performance that we saw across financial markets. So

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Speaker 1: hoping you could just run us through why it is

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Speaker 1: that we've been able to see this unbelievable performance, really

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Speaker 1: eye popping performance across the board, and and just get

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Speaker 1: us caught up to where we stand now. Yeah, well, well, well,

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Speaker 1: like every like everybody else, I have my two cents

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Speaker 1: certainly to share. I'm not sure how how much insight

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Speaker 1: frankly that that that that it provides, but you know,

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, coming coming into the year, I

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Speaker 1: think that's a good place to start, because one of

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Speaker 1: the reasons I've been so surprised by the ferocity of

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Speaker 1: the rally um was because what I perceived as being

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Speaker 1: a rather weak backdrop coming into the year and so

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Speaker 1: I actually came into the year UM pretty cautious, and

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Speaker 1: you know, few remember, but you know, not to go

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Speaker 1: back too far beyond investors memories. But but you know,

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Speaker 1: at the end of two thousand and eighteen, it was

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Speaker 1: quite a bit of of equity market volatility, which was

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Speaker 1: prompted by ten year yields rising above three uh ten

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Speaker 1: year yield went to three and a quarter. Equity markets

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Speaker 1: just just could not tolerate yields at that level. UM.

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Speaker 1: The FED was then forced in a way to act

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Speaker 1: by the treasury market with a yield curve in version

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Speaker 1: both from three months to ten year and then eventually

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Speaker 1: a little later in the year from two years to

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Speaker 1: ten years UM manifesting. And you know, the FED hates

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Speaker 1: it when the tenure yield is below FED funds, right,

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Speaker 1: so they're almost forced to cut when that happened because

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Speaker 1: it's so bad for banks UM. And we saw a

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Speaker 1: loan volume UM beginning to to contract into the end

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Speaker 1: of two thousand nineteen, and we saw you know, flat

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Speaker 1: earnings for the SMP five, deeply negative earnings for small caps,

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Speaker 1: and corporate earnings overall for both private and public companies

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Speaker 1: down you know, well over five. So my view was

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Speaker 1: was going to be a rocky year to begin with.

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Speaker 1: And I think, you know, one of the most one

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Speaker 1: of the most surprising things for this year. I know

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get to this topic a little later, was

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Speaker 1: the fact that in some ways the pandemic UM actually

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Speaker 1: forestalled I think a number of the defaults that would

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Speaker 1: have happened in its absence because of the ferocity of

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Speaker 1: the policy response on the both the monetary policy side,

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Speaker 1: UM and especially on the fiscal policy side, and the

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Speaker 1: use of Section thirteen three under the Federal Reserve Act

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Speaker 1: to UM as I've written to wed the FED to

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Speaker 1: the Treasury UM. So so I'll stop there. But but

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Speaker 1: I think that was the backdrop we came into the

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Speaker 1: year with and and and lastly, I guess you look

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Speaker 1: at about on the SMP five D. I did feel

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Speaker 1: the market was oversold and became somewhat constructive because because

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Speaker 1: of the policy response that that I expected. But you know,

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Speaker 1: in late June early July, I really became quite cautious

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Speaker 1: because I just felt there was too much uncertainty to

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Speaker 1: propel the rally much further than that. That obviously was

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Speaker 1: not correct. So Peter, let's uh, get you up to

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Speaker 1: date now with with how you're seeing the market now.

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Speaker 1: I was reading some notes you sent over to Sarah,

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Speaker 1: and I um, one line you say is, uh, I

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Speaker 1: remain tactically bullish based on sentiment and flows near term,

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Speaker 1: but the bull narrative is about as hollow as I've

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Speaker 1: ever heard it. I think that makes sort of a

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Speaker 1: lot of logical sense that you know, you can't really

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Speaker 1: fight this tape. It's it's a it's a market that

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Speaker 1: just wants to keep powering higher, whether it be sort

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Speaker 1: of irrational youth work, retail flow, or whatever is causing it.

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Speaker 1: But how do you position for for this type of environment?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with you that it seems like, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, at some point the bull narrative is only

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Speaker 1: going to take us so far, and that there will

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Speaker 1: be kind of a comeback to earth moment um. The

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Speaker 1: tricky part to me and correct me if if you

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Speaker 1: think I'm wrong, But I feel like those corrections can

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Speaker 1: be so fast. You know, you you wake up one

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Speaker 1: morning and the futures are already down two or three percent,

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Speaker 1: and you've kind of missed that opportunity to take profits

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Speaker 1: if that's what you wanted. To do so, is it

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Speaker 1: a matter of sort of hedging it out with options

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Speaker 1: or some some volatility futures or something and and and

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Speaker 1: otherwise remaining fully invested. How exactly would you sort of

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Speaker 1: position yourself in this type of environment? Yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: it's Um, it's it's incredibly difficult, and it has been

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Speaker 1: for a number of months, given the uncertainties, right, and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure we're gonna talk a little bit about the

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Speaker 1: political environment that that makes it even uh more tricky,

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Speaker 1: if you will, and balancing those things, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: the tactical bullishness that I sort of adopted, um just

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Speaker 1: before Thanksgiving was a sort of you know, hands in

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Speaker 1: the air kind of moment, because you know, there are

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Speaker 1: times when, uh, you know, when you're playing when you're

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Speaker 1: playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers, you're actually

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Speaker 1: you're the fool, right, So you you have to recognize,

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Speaker 1: um when where when you know what I say, and

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Speaker 1: about things like earnings growth, um, when when that is

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Speaker 1: just less important than the narratives that are driving the markets.

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Speaker 1: And for me, I didn't feel like there was anything

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Speaker 1: to derail the narrative that the vaccines were here, um,

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Speaker 1: that that growth was going to pick back up, which

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Speaker 1: which it has, although strangely enough, market has continued to

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Speaker 1: rally even with some of the data coming out, you know,

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Speaker 1: rather weakly in my in my view, um, notwithstanding the

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Speaker 1: p M I that came out, but you know, to

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Speaker 1: fight that, it felt. I've lived through these, I've lived

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Speaker 1: through several cycles, and you know this, this one feels

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Speaker 1: a lot like I remember asking myself, how uh you

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Speaker 1: know companies that had you know, no almost no earnings

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Speaker 1: or negative cash flow apart me and almost no revenues.

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Speaker 1: You know, it could be worth hundreds of millions of

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Speaker 1: dollars And okay, it's not a perfect and allergy, but

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Speaker 1: from a sentiment standpoint, it does feel quite the same.

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Speaker 1: And I think you had a lot of new entrants

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Speaker 1: into the market then Visa V back in the days, Mike,

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Speaker 1: you and I might remember. Um, not to exclude you, Sarah,

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Speaker 1: but I think we're older than now. Um, Peter, you're

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Speaker 1: blowing my lip. You're you're blowing my lid here all

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Speaker 1: these off as a millennial, I had all the listeners

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Speaker 1: convinced I was twenty five. It's not a good thing.

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Speaker 1: It's not. But you know, living through that period you know,

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Speaker 1: it feels very similar to it where there was a

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Speaker 1: new new set of investors entering the market, you know,

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Speaker 1: and if you know that, you would trade stocks on

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Speaker 1: your E trade account, which was the you know, the

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Speaker 1: the early mover, then on your PC and your big

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Speaker 1: CRT screen, and you know, and that made a difference.

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Speaker 1: And I think that added to the froth then. And

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Speaker 1: I think you've got a similar dynamic going on now. Um.

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Speaker 1: I was look, I was keen to it, um as

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Speaker 1: early as September nineteen. I wrote a piece called the

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Speaker 1: Robin Hood Rally, and in that piece I talked about

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Speaker 1: these new entrants, and I also talked about how rates

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Speaker 1: are actually not necessarily a great justification for high higher

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Speaker 1: PE multiples, which sets up this answer a little bit

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Speaker 1: as well. And we can talk about that later if

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Speaker 1: it makes sense. But to get to your question, how

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Speaker 1: do you position yourself? It's very difficult to hedge the

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Speaker 1: book right now, Um, when you look at the options

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Speaker 1: volatility surfaces on almost any index, and and the cyclical

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Speaker 1: rally in particular, and the Russell rally in particular seems

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Speaker 1: way overdone. Um, it's very hard to buy put options.

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Speaker 1: And so what you have to do is engage in

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Speaker 1: more sophisticated strategies that really do require a delta view

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Speaker 1: or a view on direction in the underlying which precisely

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Speaker 1: what can generally try to avoid when you're buying volatility,

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Speaker 1: right And what I mean by that is the only

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Speaker 1: way to really for you know, to pursu to fund

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Speaker 1: a Russell strategy is to sell a call to buy

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Speaker 1: a put replix spread, so that you're selling a little

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Speaker 1: bit of alatility to to to fund your downside protection.

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Speaker 1: And you know you're making a directional bet that that

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Speaker 1: that it's a lot more directional than if you're just

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Speaker 1: buying a Russell put for example, And the same is

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Speaker 1: true for the SMP. So hedging is extremely difficult right now.

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Speaker 1: If you're very long, obviously you can sell calls to

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Speaker 1: to sort of overwrite your portfolio. And so I think

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Speaker 1: that is a good strategy for those who are long.

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Speaker 1: For those who are underinvested already, the premium burn from

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Speaker 1: just buying expensive put options is is probably too much

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Speaker 1: to tolerate. So that's that's difficult. Um. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think being a little bit heavier in cash makes sense here. UM.

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Speaker 1: I do still like gold, um and you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: I you know, I g is a good place to hide,

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Speaker 1: but you're just not getting a heck up a lot

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Speaker 1: of yields. So I mean that's sort of how I'm positioned,

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Speaker 1: right I you know, uh, you know, own some investment,

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Speaker 1: great credit things going to continue to get support from

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Speaker 1: the Treasury and the fed um. But I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: dipping my tone into high yield. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: that's a chase that's going to end poorly at the SMP.

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Speaker 1: SMP ratings is predicting a nine perspective default rate and

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Speaker 1: yet uh, you know, we have some of the lowest

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Speaker 1: absolute yields in high yield um that we've ever seen. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this brings me to another line that you wrote that

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Speaker 1: that I really loved, and I'm going to read it

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Speaker 1: verbatim because I'm sure if I curse on the podcast,

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Speaker 1: I'll get in a lot of trouble from my bosses.

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Speaker 1: But by the bull star and signed dash t for

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Speaker 1: a trade into Christmas on fun flows, but don't buy

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Speaker 1: into the nonsense nonsense narratives permanently. And this leads me

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Speaker 1: to ask you, would you say that at least some

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Speaker 1: pockets of the market are in a bubble. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've seen the NASZAC one hundred more than double now

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Speaker 1: in a year's time span. We've seen a SPA boom.

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Speaker 1: We see the I p O market just on fire.

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Speaker 1: As you mentioned, we've seen a retail trading phenomenon even

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Speaker 1: taking advantage of the option market. One, are we in

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Speaker 1: a bubble? And too? Even if we are, what can

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Speaker 1: you do about that? Because bubbles, as we all know,

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Speaker 1: can can last for a long time until they don't. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they they most certainly can. So you know, bubbles are

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Speaker 1: about context. Right. It was interesting, um, you know for

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Speaker 1: those of us nerds, and I know you guys are

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Speaker 1: just like me and your nerds about this stuff too,

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Speaker 1: so we you know, we listened to Chairman Powell and

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Speaker 1: his press conference and he pointed to the FED model, right,

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Speaker 1: he said, you know, equities actually don't look all that

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Speaker 1: rich when taking too into account the fact that um

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Speaker 1: greats are as low as they are. And um, you know,

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Speaker 1: in in in the notes that I sent to you,

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Speaker 1: and in a piece I put out, you know, I

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Speaker 1: quoted Bill Dudley and you know he said, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'll quote them stimulus provided by lower interest rates inevitably

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Speaker 1: wears off. Cutting interest rates boost the economy of of

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Speaker 1: bringing future activity into the present. Easy money encourages people

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Speaker 1: to buy houses and appliances now rather than later. But

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Speaker 1: when the future arrives, that activity is missing. The only

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Speaker 1: way to keep things going is to lower interest rates

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Speaker 1: further until that is they hit their lower bound, which

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Speaker 1: in the US is zero. And that's Bill Dudley, not me.

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Speaker 1: And that's a very incomplete description of how monetary policy works,

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Speaker 1: but it's it's good enough for for for our conversation.

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Speaker 1: So especially in that context, right in the context of

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Speaker 1: the fact that the FED can't lower rates anymore and

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Speaker 1: that we're really reliant I think on fiscal policy, UM,

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Speaker 1: I think equities look rich as a general matter. UM.

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Speaker 1: And you know, moreover, um, when when we're talking about

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Speaker 1: why rates are low, rates were already quite low coming

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Speaker 1: into the pandemic, because activity was already slowing because there

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Speaker 1: was so little inflation. I think the FED has has

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Speaker 1: proven its inability to stimulate inflation. In fact, um, one

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Speaker 1: of the things I'm writing about in my book, and

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Speaker 1: I've written about in pieces over time, is the fact

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Speaker 1: that the FED has actually created the disinflationary environment to

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Speaker 1: some extent by creating over investment UM, which leads to

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Speaker 1: difficulty for firms and getting price. And when you can't

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Speaker 1: get price, uh, profitability suffers. And when profitability suffers, you

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Speaker 1: can't rage raise workers wages, which is at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, what the FED really cares most about.

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Speaker 1: So back to the bubble question, are there areas of

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Speaker 1: the market that are in a bubble? Yeah, clearly, um.

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Speaker 1: And I think small caps right now have went from

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Speaker 1: somewhat over sold too wildly overbought because I do not

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Speaker 1: see how earnings are to come back for cyclical companies.

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Speaker 1: There are clearly bubbles in tech. I actually have a

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Speaker 1: sort of proprietary basket of of ten companies that I've

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Speaker 1: been watching for for a while, and um, they are

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Speaker 1: way into bubble uh territory. And the way that I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to name names for those kind police for

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Speaker 1: obvious reasons, but the way I typically look at that

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Speaker 1: is I look at companies with negative cash flow, and

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Speaker 1: I look at the multiple of revenue. So it's a

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Speaker 1: basket of negative cash flow companies that's trading at multiples

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Speaker 1: of revenue above ten times. And um. Not only the

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Speaker 1: number of companies like that at at some of the

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Speaker 1: highest levels I've ever seen. But the multiple multiples of

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Speaker 1: revenues have expanded well above ten times in many cases.

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Speaker 1: So yes, and many of those are obviously speculative technology companies. Peter,

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Speaker 1: I love that analogy used. Uh just now you said, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know sometimes when you're playing chess and the rest

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Speaker 1: of the market is playing checkers, you're you're the one

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Speaker 1: that can end up looking bad. And you know, I

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Speaker 1: obviously this was a big year for for checkers players

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Speaker 1: in the in the market, uh, even scrabble players as

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Speaker 1: uh Dave Portnoy uh was famously picking letters out of

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Speaker 1: the scrab scrabble bag to to pick stock tickers. I.

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Speaker 1: You know, now we have this another jolt of fiscal

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Speaker 1: spending coming. You know, as we record this, you know,

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Speaker 1: we still don't know if it will be six hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars or two thousand dollar checks sent out to most Americans. UM.

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Speaker 1: I know you've paid a lot of attention to sort

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Speaker 1: of the Dave portnoise of the world this year and

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Speaker 1: and done a lot of thinking about it. Does this

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Speaker 1: fiscal uh spending that's coming now, this this sort of

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Speaker 1: you know checks in the mail? Um, is it gonna

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Speaker 1: be off to the races again in the market? I mean,

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Speaker 1: is that enough to sort of get us rallying again? Uh?

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Speaker 1: You know, fundamentals be damned, just you know, grab those

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Speaker 1: scrabble letters out of the bag and start picking stocks again.

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Speaker 1: Is do you think that's a risk? Man? I wish

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Speaker 1: I could answer that. I'll tell you, I'll tell, I will,

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Speaker 1: I will. I'll give it a shot, like, um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's all. That's that's the best we can ask. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So so if we remember, you know, uh, for a

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Speaker 1: look for a while, the the stimulus package that just

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Speaker 1: passed was expected, you know, quite a bit earlier that

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Speaker 1: the conversation was is it coming before the election? Is

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Speaker 1: not coming for it? Right? And you know, my view

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Speaker 1: was likely wasn't going to come for the election, and

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Speaker 1: that that probably wasn't gonna be all that good for equities.

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Speaker 1: That turned out not to be the case. Right at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, no one really cared. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think the mistake I made there was that there

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Speaker 1: continued to be uh knock on effects from the previous

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Speaker 1: uh stimulus package. And when you look at money supply

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Speaker 1: money supply, there's a couple of things. Money supply actually

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Speaker 1: does not expand UM in the way many people think

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Speaker 1: it does in response to monetary policy. It just it

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Speaker 1: simply doesn't, because monetary policy is actually not a money

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Speaker 1: phenomenon the way many think it's an interest rate phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: Fiscal policy, on the other hand, when you deposit money

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Speaker 1: into people's checking accounts, that by definition right increases the

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Speaker 1: money supply, and a lot of that additional liquidity in

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Speaker 1: a real way went into the stock market UM. And

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Speaker 1: that persisted for quite a bit longer, I think than

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Speaker 1: many people thought. And I think what it suggested was

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Speaker 1: that the amount of stimulus that came out of the

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Speaker 1: first package was actually more effective than many of us

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Speaker 1: believed it would be UM. And so that, you know,

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Speaker 1: that leads me to my assessment of the second stimulus package,

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Speaker 1: which is a two thousand dollars is a ludicrously large

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Speaker 1: amount UM and it you know, we can get into

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Speaker 1: the political motivations behind it, but it's just it's uh.

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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think that's a great thing, and I

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Speaker 1: hate to agree with Laurence Summers, but but I will

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Speaker 1: in this case and and say, you know, it's it's

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Speaker 1: just not it's not warranted. Um, So will that drive

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Speaker 1: equities higher? If you get a two thousand dollar check?

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Speaker 1: You know, Mike, it might Uh, indeed, indeed it could,

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Speaker 1: um in which to me would increase the risk of

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Speaker 1: the market all the more because when the liquidity finally

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Speaker 1: does run out, after we come back to a sense

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Speaker 1: of normalcy sometime late next year, Um, you know that

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Speaker 1: that the rug will be pulled out from under the market.

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Speaker 1: The question is just kind of when that happens, and uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, what are the risks of this new strain

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Speaker 1: and lots of other things, but but yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: that that's clearly one of the things that could drive

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Speaker 1: these drive these Marketshire. I just pulled up some data

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Speaker 1: from this company investment Yodley, which is a data aggregator

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Speaker 1: on how the stimulus checks were put to use in

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Speaker 1: the markets the first time. Just for some background, listen

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Speaker 1: to these numbers. So, people are named between thirty five

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Speaker 1: dollars and seventy five dollars a year increased stock trading

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Speaker 1: by more than the prior week after receiving their stimulus check.

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Speaker 1: And then those making between a hundred and a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty k increased trading by eight two percent. And those

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Speaker 1: that earn more than a hundred fifth K traded about

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Speaker 1: fifty more often. So if you look at these numbers,

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Speaker 1: it is pretty unbelievable, and there is data that shows

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Speaker 1: that it did have an effect on people trading more

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Speaker 1: often and getting into the market. But I also want

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Speaker 1: to circle back, Peter to to a point that you

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Speaker 1: made early on in the conversation, that being that before

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen hit, before any of us knew that we

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Speaker 1: were going to be dealing with the pandemic this year,

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Speaker 1: that we didn't necessarily have a very strong set up

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Speaker 1: coming into And like you said, it feels like a

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Speaker 1: lot of people forget that. And I've been looking at

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Speaker 1: analysts earnings estimates for the SMP five hundred for one,

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Speaker 1: looking for a hundred sixty seven dollars to share. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you're right in the ballpack park again of the prior

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Speaker 1: year when we were at peak earnings earnings growth. From

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Speaker 1: your perspective, are are people losing site of where we

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Speaker 1: were coming from the base that we were coming from

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Speaker 1: before even dealing with this recession, the bear market COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen um to all of a sudden assume that it's

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Speaker 1: going to be off to the races again. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: mean most certainly in my opinion, UM, that that's one

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Speaker 1: of the things that that just doesn't make an awful

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Speaker 1: lot of sense to me. UM. The trajectory on the

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Speaker 1: way in was as you just laid it out, fairly weak.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, some of the earnings estimates that

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Speaker 1: I'm seeing, as you said, this consensus is just below

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Speaker 1: one seventy, are gonna require multiples that just don't make

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Speaker 1: a lot of sense to me within the context of

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Speaker 1: the fact that rates can't go any lower. So if

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Speaker 1: we're looking for multiple expansion to continue to drive the rally, UM,

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get that because the

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Speaker 1: feds um efficacy is limited, right. It can it has firepower.

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Speaker 1: No one's saying the FED doesn't of ammunition. It can

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Speaker 1: print money, and it can go by treasuries for as

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Speaker 1: long as it would like. UM. But at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, when you're at zero, Uh, that's the

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Speaker 1: stimulative impact is is muted because you can't push it

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00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: below zero at least well you can. We know rates

429
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,880
Speaker 1: can go negative, but studies have shown that negative rates

430
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: really actually don't do a heck of a lot and

431
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 1: the FETE has stated pretty clearly it doesn't want to go.

432
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: So I think, yes, I think that is one huge

433
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 1: piece that people are missing. We're not just back to

434
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: you know, this to the moon uh scenario for earnings.

435
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 1: If if anything, we're back to a situation where UM

436
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 1: cash flows remain challenge and by the way, debt levels

437
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 1: have exploded UM and many of your reporters have done

438
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: a pretty good job following this that they're now two

439
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: trillion dollars of I think what have been characterized as

440
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 1: zombie companies where uh, you know, many of these are

441
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: larger company these where uh earnings or cash flows don't

442
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: cover interest. And of course the counter argument to that

443
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 1: is immediately, well, we're talking about a pandemic here. Uh

444
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: you know, earnings are going to get better, but I

445
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: would say, we can't count on that. And that's to

446
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: me with this extra netload why I think SMP UM

447
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 1: is rightly pointing out that default rates should increase considerably

448
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: in yeah, you right that, Uh. I guess SMP expects

449
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: UM speculative speculative grade default rates increased to nine percent

450
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: by one from six point three uh this September. UM,

451
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 1: you're thinking even higher to something like twelve. Um. You know,

452
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 1: it's interesting to me because that those defaults tend to

453
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: sort of lag the the economic downturn to to some degree,

454
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: I guess, UM, so we we still could be facing

455
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: this this wave of default even as the economy starts

456
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 1: rebounding next year. Has the FED basically you know, inoculated

457
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 1: the credit markets though with these programs this year were

458
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: how do you see that all working out for the

459
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: rest of the year. You know, will the Fed be

460
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 1: able to to basically keep the corporate bond market calm

461
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: even if these default rates UH spike up a little bit? Yeah?

462
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: That you know, that's fantastic question. Um. Another question obviously,

463
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: to which I do do not have an answer, but

464
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 1: only an opinion. UM. That's that we're in the business

465
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 1: of giving opinions. I suppose, but sometimes sometimes the default

466
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 1: cycle leads the downturn and at other times it lags.

467
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: I agree with you on that. So the question here

468
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: becomes does the default cycle UH to some extent UH

469
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: catalyze a second slowdown? Um? And does it catalyze the

470
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: second slowdown because of the reason for UH the default cycle,

471
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: which is that earnings are failing to grow and I

472
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 1: actually happen to think that that may be the case. Now,

473
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: this this in turn hinges on a rather esoteric top

474
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: or topic which I'm sure many of your listeners are

475
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: are are focused on. But it really depends whether or

476
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: not the FEDS emergency powers if you will, that's not

477
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: the technical term, but whether or not it can use

478
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: the exigent circumstances exception under Section thirteen three of the

479
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Act to continue to work with Treasury. And

480
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: again Treasury has to agree to it and fund these

481
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 1: special perfect purpose vehicles with first lost capital, which is

482
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: then in turn used to extend these loans. Okay, and

483
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 1: these these loans through the primary and secondary blending facilities

484
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: are really just sort of tarp in disguise. They just

485
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: decided not to call it that this time. Um. But

486
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 1: the question becomes, will those programs which are supposed to

487
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: be emergent or emergency exigent, right that's the language of

488
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve Act, do they become more permanent? And

489
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: interestingly enough, during the most recent pandemic relief package, Patrick

490
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: Tooney actually stuck up his hand and said, you know,

491
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: I want this to change. Um. So, so there are

492
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: those in the legislature that that legislature that are aware

493
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 1: of this issue UM, and whether or not the investing

494
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: public becomes confident that there will be a permanent backstop

495
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: in the credit markets and the corporate credit markets will

496
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 1: clearly way on how risk plays and whether or not

497
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 1: that the fault cycle UM is dead forever or not.

498
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: You know, if it is dead forever, then I think

499
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: we unfortunately have a situation where our system of capitalism

500
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 1: is dead because I think without some level of default

501
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: and recession, you know, that price discovery mechanism just doesn't

502
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: work anymore. So you're you're you're begging a very deep

503
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: philosophical question, which in fact is the is the topic

504
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: of the book that I'm undertaking, well to be seen

505
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: and Mike Love's philosophical questions I do. I like the

506
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: teaser on the book too. That was well well done.

507
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: He snuck that in there. Well, we can't wait for

508
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: the book, I guess, uh sometime in one can we

509
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:16,479
Speaker 1: expect it? Yes, with with with any with any luck, Okay, good, Well,

510
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: we'll have to have you back on when it's out,

511
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: and we'll we'll do a little book club, little OpenH

512
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: Oprah's book Club I love it. Hopefully I'll get her done.

513
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: But with the death of capitalism, Sarah, I think that's

514
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: our cue to move into the crazy things. What what?

515
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: What a queue stand clear of the craziest things we

516
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: saw in markets this week? So why don't you get

517
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 1: us started, Sarah, what's the craziest thing you saw this week? So?

518
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: I actually wanted to share one from a listener. First,

519
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: we got an instant Bloomberg from Kendall bull Over at

520
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: Bank of America Securities. Uh, he missed the cut off

521
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: for last week's episode. I'll admit, just by a hair

522
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: but I wanted to include it this week because it

523
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: is pretty crazy. Um. So, what he points out is

524
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,239
Speaker 1: that if you look at Quantum Escape now, this is

525
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: a Bill Gates back electric vehicle startup, but the spread

526
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: between the stock price and the warrant price right now

527
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: is about seventy five dollars. The stock price has gone

528
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: from under twelve dollars at the beginning of November to

529
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: around one dollars today at the time of his writing me.

530
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: And then he says this isn't a small spack with

531
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: market cup of around forty billion dollars now and the

532
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: cost to currently short, the stock in the lending market

533
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: is around minus n so just wild dist locations and

534
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: again fits into the idea the narrative of of the

535
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: spack boom that we've seen this year. Wait, the cost

536
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: to borrow is mina is negative, is what he said?

537
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: That's I think I want to borrow that one night.

538
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sell it. I'm just gonna borrow it.

539
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: That's that's pretty fascinating though. Yeah, alright, uh, Peter, you

540
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: got anything crazy for us this week? Yeah? I mean

541
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: I never thought i'd live to see the day when

542
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: President Trump was on the same page as Nancy Pelosi.

543
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: I think that wins. I think that wins. I think

544
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: you're right. Who would have thought to talk about a

545
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: crazy ending to a crazy year? But here we are,

546
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: Here we are. That's pretty good, all right? I got one,

547
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 1: uh as promised for our crypto and through aficionados. I

548
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: guess is the proper turn not enthusiast efficient. I've been

549
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: reading two headlines here, Sarah. One is from coin desk

550
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 1: dot com and it says Carolina Panthers Russell oh Kung

551
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: becomes the first NFL player to be paid in bitcoin.

552
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 1: I saw this unbelievable. It's pretty interesting. Now here's the

553
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: headline from the Verge, a another website. No NFL player

554
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: Russell Okung is not being paid in bitcoin, So all

555
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,479
Speaker 1: right with the discrepancy? Is this guy wanted to get

556
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: paid in bitcoin? E each tweeted out in two thousand

557
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 1: and nineteen, pay me in bitcoin. And he's a real

558
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: sort of crypto enthusiast. He's a computer aficionado. Yes, uh,

559
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: interesting guy. He goes to two classes to high schools

560
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: and stuff and and talks to their software coding club

561
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: rather than the football team. And he and he says,

562
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: all right, I want one of you guys to be

563
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 1: the next creator of Facebook. So an interesting uh NFL

564
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:28,239
Speaker 1: player offensive lineman. Um. But the discrepancy is because, all right,

565
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: he's getting paid by the Panthers in US dollars and

566
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: there's some service uh the companies called zap and their

567
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: product is called strike and it basically intercepts the payment

568
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 1: from the NFL team and converts half of it to

569
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: bitcoin and gives them half in dollars and and uh,

570
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,959
Speaker 1: half of his paying bitcoin. Maybe not the craziest thing,

571
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: but I think it's an interesting, uh sort of part

572
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: of the evolution of bitcoin. If all of a sudden,

573
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: pro athletes are asking to be paid in bitcoin and

574
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: there's service that actually converts half their pay instantly uh

575
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 1: into bitcoin, I it makes you wonder about you know,

576
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: this rally we've seen in crypto, and you know, you're

577
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 1: always trying to figure out what's driving it. But uh,

578
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 1: this guy behind this app says that other professional athletes,

579
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: including he won't name them, but he says some members

580
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: of the Brooklyn Nets and the Yankees are on board

581
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: with that this app too, so they presumably will start

582
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 1: getting some of their pay in bitcoin. Pretty interesting, Sarah,

583
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if it's the craziest thing,

584
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: but definitely one of the more interesting things. Very interesting.

585
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: And Peter, you said that asking you about bitcoin was

586
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: fair game. So as I'm looking at my terminal right

587
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: now knocking on the door of twenty eight dollars again,

588
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: So what's your view? Um, you know, I certainly no

589
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: offense to the the athlete in question, but I think

590
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: if we're relying on professional athletes uh to set the

591
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: set the stage for what's uh, what's smart business practice,

592
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 1: I think we're going to be disappointed. Um, look, I

593
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 1: think big kind coin is is an incredible story. And

594
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: what I've come to sort of believe about it is

595
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 1: that it is really born of a desire to go

596
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: back to the days of old. It's sort of of

597
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 1: of what's it's a it's what's new is old sort

598
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,760
Speaker 1: of story because back in the day when the dollar

599
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: was pegged to gold, there was reserved scarcity. That reserve

600
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: scarcity came from a limited amount of gold. And what

601
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: is bitcoin It's a I would call it, you know,

602
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: fictitiously in some sense created reserve scarcity situation because only

603
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: a certain amount of of of coin can be created now.

604
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 1: So I think that's really interesting, and I think that's

605
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 1: maybe an interesting way to take to take out. It's

606
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: also a currency substitute, right because with rates of zero,

607
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: you're not getting paid to her hold the currency anymore, right, um,

608
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: whether it's in short treasuries or longer data treasuries, um,

609
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: which is also the argument for gold. So from those standpoints,

610
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: it's interesting and it's being adopted and and you know,

611
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: who's to argue with that. That said, I think where

612
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: the argument falls apart is that lots of different crypto

613
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 1: can be created over time. I mean, bitcoin doesn't have

614
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 1: a monopoly on crypto, so that reserves scarcity sort of

615
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 1: argument falls to pieces And at the end of the day,

616
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 1: I mean, I hate to be, you know, the old

617
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: man in the room here, but I just see it

618
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: as a speculative instrument that people are trying to make

619
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: excuses about UM as a legitimate um instrument. Uh, let's

620
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: just call it what it is. It's a great way

621
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: to speculate. Uh. And I wish i'd own more of

622
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: it um frankly. Uh, that that's the bottom line. You know.

623
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: I wasn't smart enough to to to figure out what

624
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: it was going to become as it was becoming it.

625
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: But but I don't think we should again, we shouldn't

626
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: fool ourselves that it's something that it's not, just because

627
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 1: it's working now. Yeah, yeah, I think it all circles

628
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: back to that exactly like you said, that speculative nature,

629
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 1: that there's you know, Davy day traders of the world

630
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 1: just watching watching the chart and and trading based on

631
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 1: momentum and whatever else and fundamentals be darned. I guess

632
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 1: for now that can happen for a while. And you

633
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 1: hear four hundred thousand dollar calls and you really don't

634
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,399
Speaker 1: want to miss out on that if that's the next

635
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 1: big thing, right, all right, I'm not going to cut

636
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: myself loose, though, I'm gonna hold myself through Mike. I

637
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: do have go this week. Um so this is just

638
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 1: a nutshell. Listen to this headline sustainability spack Queen's Gambit

639
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: growth Capital fires for a two d million dollar I

640
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: p O. Now, I think you guys really tied me

641
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 1: up for this one talking about chess and checkers earlier

642
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: on uh in the podcast. But you get a combination

643
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 1: of spacks, you get a combination of Queen's Gambit, which

644
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: I must say was one of my best quarantine shows

645
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 1: to watch. What could be better? Right? Something for everyone?

646
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: Something for everyone? That's amazing? When does that? I p o.

647
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 1: Uh let me see if I can pull it up

648
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 1: right here? So it's as they filed on Tuesday of

649
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: this week with the sec to raise up I PO.

650
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: I don't see. Yeah, I don't seem a date yet.

651
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: We don't have the effective date yet. We'll have to

652
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 1: circle back on that one. That's that's pretty good. That

653
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:33,919
Speaker 1: that boy, it's like you think you hear the bell

654
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 1: ringing for the top, Peter, and it just keeps getting crazier.

655
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 1: What uh what you're hearing? I mean the Queen's Gambits back? Alright?

656
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: Good one alone, Mike, Bitcoin is fair game. Queen's Gambits back.

657
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: Not well with that, Sarah, I think our gambit here

658
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 1: is over as well. Uh, Peter Chessiny. Thank you so

659
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: much for joining the show. We really appreciated it. Good

660
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 1: luck with the book, and we'll have to talk to

661
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: you again when it comes out next year. Thanks a lot, Mike,

662
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed it. Thank you very much, Sarah, talk

663
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: to you said, what goes up. We'll be back next week.

664
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 1: Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal

665
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 1: website and app, or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd

666
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 1: love it if you took the time to rate and

667
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,839
Speaker 1: review the show on Apple podcast. Some more listeners can

668
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 1: find us, and you can find us on Twitter, follow

669
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: me at at Sara Pontzack, Mike is that reaganonymous, and

670
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: you can also follow Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts. Also, thank

671
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: you to Charlie Pellett of Bloomberg Radio and the voice

672
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 1: of the New York City Subway System. What Goes Up

673
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 1: is produced by tober Foreheads and the head of Bloomberg

674
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,439
Speaker 1: Podcast is Francesca Levie. Thanks for listening, see you next time.

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00:38:54,400 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: Thank you, mu