WEBVTT - Presidential Election Impact on Future Trade

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. So our next guest was

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<v Speaker 1>a former Assistant Secretary for Manufacturing and Services in the

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<v Speaker 1>US Department of Commerce in the International Trade Mission administration.

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<v Speaker 1>That was during the Obama administration. She's got some thoughts

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<v Speaker 1>and how the presidential election will impact future trade agreements.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a lot to talk to her about on

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<v Speaker 1>this Monday. Nicole Lamb Hall is a managing director at Kroll.

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<v Speaker 1>She's fellow at Duff and Phelps Institute UM and she

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone in Washington, d C. Nicole,

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<v Speaker 1>it is nice to have you here with us. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg. Well, thank you. Carol's great to be with you.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's funny we kid Jason and I kind

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<v Speaker 1>of laugh a little bit about Oh yeah, it's as

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<v Speaker 1>a presidential election year, because in any other year, that

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<v Speaker 1>is what every conversation would probably revolve around, and yet

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<v Speaker 1>this year is unlike any other. Talk to us though

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<v Speaker 1>about from your perspective, what you're seeing, what you're thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about when it comes to the up coming election and

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to trade. Sure, well, I really believe,

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<v Speaker 1>and and this is something that we talk to our

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<v Speaker 1>clients with the Definite Self Institute about all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just really the differences around kind of a choice

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<v Speaker 1>between a unilateral and a multilateral approach to trade. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems clear to me that the Trump doctrine is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of a go at a loan approach that isolates

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<v Speaker 1>and sometimes alienates the US from our allies and and

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<v Speaker 1>in some ways embraces what I would say our market

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<v Speaker 1>distorative tools such as tear offfs and quotas for purchases

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<v Speaker 1>of of US goods and services. And by contrast, and

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<v Speaker 1>multilateral approach to trades, these collaborative action with our allies

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<v Speaker 1>and and and in working together hopes to maybe you know,

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<v Speaker 1>nudge uh countries that don't want to play by the

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<v Speaker 1>same rules towards playing by those rules. And so I

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<v Speaker 1>think that that's what the that's what's being set up

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<v Speaker 1>now in the presidential election as it relates to trade,

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<v Speaker 1>is just those different kind of approach, those different approaches.

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<v Speaker 1>And so Nicole, I guess one of the big questions

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<v Speaker 1>is if there is a change over, if you do

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<v Speaker 1>have a Biden administration, how easy is it to get

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<v Speaker 1>back to a multilateral world. Since we've been in this

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<v Speaker 1>bilateral or unilateral world now for three and a half years, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be very challenging, Jason, I can tell

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<v Speaker 1>you because it's it's really there has been a sea change.

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<v Speaker 1>There have been some norms, that is that have obviously

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<v Speaker 1>changed since the Trump administration came into into office, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I think it's it's going to take us a

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<v Speaker 1>while to get back to the point where we can

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<v Speaker 1>be viewed as leaders in the as a leader in

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<v Speaker 1>the multilateral approach. I don't think it will happen overnight,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think it's necessary, particularly when you look at

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<v Speaker 1>what's happened as it relates to US China trade. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that that in and of itself illustrates kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the perils of going it alone. Um. I think that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the global businesses, like our clients with Deaf

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<v Speaker 1>and Phelps and Corole are really caught in the balance now,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of in the cross hair, so to speak, of

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<v Speaker 1>the U. S. China trade tensions that that have been

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<v Speaker 1>largely brought about. I think, even though they existed prior

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<v Speaker 1>to President Trump coming into the office into office, I

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<v Speaker 1>think they have created been exacerbated by this going alone approach. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's interesting because I feel like Nicole, the US

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<v Speaker 1>isn't alone in kind of looking inward, and I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like we've seen, you know, some of this around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And I do wonder though increasingly you mentioned China, if

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<v Speaker 1>we are getting ready to kind of divide the world

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<v Speaker 1>into China and the countries that want to work with

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<v Speaker 1>China and the US and the countries that want to

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<v Speaker 1>work with the US. Well, I think there's a danger

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<v Speaker 1>of that, and I think that is bad, particularly for

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<v Speaker 1>global businesses like our clients has the world. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>what what we do know now is that global supply

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<v Speaker 1>chains our our reality. They aren't going that's not going

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<v Speaker 1>to change. We have globalization, and we have to learn

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<v Speaker 1>to work together within this sphere, with multinational UH companies

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<v Speaker 1>that are both in the US and in other countries

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<v Speaker 1>around the world, to find a way to um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>create some normalcy around what global trading rules should be UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I think what what I worry about is, and I

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<v Speaker 1>recognize that there is a little bit of nationalism that

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing around the world. I worry that some of

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<v Speaker 1>the progress that we've made with trade agreements kind of

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<v Speaker 1>moving away from care ofs and looking more broadly at

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<v Speaker 1>policies like environmental protections and labor protections. I'm afraid that

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<v Speaker 1>we're moving away from that and we're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>to a point where the global economy and global businesses

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<v Speaker 1>will suffer. And so Nicole, when we look at the

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<v Speaker 1>headlines to a and over the weekend and going into

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend and we see something like the action around TikTok,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, part of this is about an area that

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<v Speaker 1>you are very familiar with, which is foreign ownership. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>you've done a lot of work, uh, I believe on

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<v Speaker 1>SCIPHIUS and you know that looks at it's the committee

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<v Speaker 1>for our listeners, It's Committee on Foreign Investment in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>An incredibly important sort of piece of the puzzle here

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<v Speaker 1>when you think about that element and how it relates

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<v Speaker 1>to global trade and how it relates to the relationship

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<v Speaker 1>among superpowers. What do you think about right now? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>what I worry about is that SIPIUS is used and

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<v Speaker 1>and other similar committees or entities around the world are

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<v Speaker 1>used not for what they were intended to be used

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<v Speaker 1>as is to protect national security, but are used as

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<v Speaker 1>tools and trade craft. Um, I think that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the as I look at the TikTok transaction, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is you know, consistent with my experience when I was

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<v Speaker 1>on the committee, when I was in the Obama administration.

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<v Speaker 1>It is really centered, it seems to me, on national

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<v Speaker 1>security concerns around data privacy of U. S citizens, And

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<v Speaker 1>so I think that it's it's probably right on the

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<v Speaker 1>mark um, but it does create to the tensions. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a trifecta tensions with China around trade, technology,

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<v Speaker 1>and geopolitics, so it certainly falls into the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the technology tensions. But I think that you know, data

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<v Speaker 1>privacy is a real concern. And while you know, when

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the legislation that updated the SCIFIST process

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<v Speaker 1>and it's focus on protecting p i I or personally

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<v Speaker 1>identifiable information of US citizens, that was always an issue

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<v Speaker 1>even when I was on SCIFISTS, But now with the

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<v Speaker 1>legislation being updated, it's really coming into into full focus.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's a it's a legitimate issue. But if scythist

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<v Speaker 1>is used as a tool of trade craft, then you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it kind of loses its bite, I think, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think we want to avoid that and so, so help me.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a really important point now. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure that I understand it, Nicole, which is what

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<v Speaker 1>what is the role or what mechanism should be used

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<v Speaker 1>in this case when it relates to something like TikTok

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<v Speaker 1>If there are indeed, and I think there's some questions

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<v Speaker 1>out there as to whether there are you know, real

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<v Speaker 1>concerns about data privacy. If there are those concerns, how

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<v Speaker 1>should this be essentially investigated or ultimately litigated. What's the mechanism?

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<v Speaker 1>What's the right mechanism? Well, I think Scipias certainly is

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<v Speaker 1>the right mechanism, especially because this transaction was not reviewed

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<v Speaker 1>by Sippius when it was done initially. And Siffius does

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<v Speaker 1>have the ability to look at cases and transactions that

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<v Speaker 1>we're not they're called non notified transactions Jason, And there's

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<v Speaker 1>no statute of limitations on you know, how long before

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<v Speaker 1>Scippius can look at this. Uh, you know, they have

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<v Speaker 1>the ability to open up any transaction that threatens national security.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think it's the right um, the right forum

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<v Speaker 1>for it. So civit so sorry to interrupt you. So

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<v Speaker 1>Ciffius is the right forum. But basically the administration or

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<v Speaker 1>the president coming in and being like you're done or

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<v Speaker 1>you're done. You know at a date certain is maybe

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<v Speaker 1>not the right thing. Well, you know, SCIFFIUS has typically

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<v Speaker 1>been a process that's been confidential. You know, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>a highly um because it's a national security focused review process.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's usually not something that you read about in

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<v Speaker 1>the media as much as we have in the last

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<v Speaker 1>few days. So I'm a little bit concerned about that

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<v Speaker 1>because that's a that's a change in norms. But I

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<v Speaker 1>do believe that CIFFIUS is the right venue for for

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<v Speaker 1>these issues to be resolved. And if indeed the intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>reports show that there is a data privacy risk for U.

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<v Speaker 1>S citizens, then it's the right decision for SIFFIUS to

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<v Speaker 1>be reviewing this and should possibly cause it cause of

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<v Speaker 1>investment here. What do you hear, Nicole, from some of

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<v Speaker 1>your clients that you guys work with, I mean you

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<v Speaker 1>work with you know more than half of I believe

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<v Speaker 1>the SMP five hundred companies, I mean household companies that

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<v Speaker 1>certainly our listeners know of. I'm curious what they see

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<v Speaker 1>as the trade environment going forward, especially if there is

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<v Speaker 1>a second term under Donald Trump, or whether there's a

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<v Speaker 1>change in the White House, do they have a preference, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's it's it's it's a very good question, Carol.

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<v Speaker 1>And what I'd say is our clients with the devil

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<v Speaker 1>Fels Institute really want certainty even if the news isn't great,

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<v Speaker 1>even if it's not ideal. The ping pong approach or

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<v Speaker 1>the seesaw approach of you know, teariffs or x at

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<v Speaker 1>X level one day, you know another level another day,

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<v Speaker 1>they're on the table, they're off the table. That really

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<v Speaker 1>interferes with the ability of global businesses to do long

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<v Speaker 1>term business planning. So I think that certainly if President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is reelected, we'll see more of the same, a

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<v Speaker 1>continuation of kind of the unilateral approach to trade negotiations.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the President has been very clear that he

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<v Speaker 1>does not favor multilateral negotiations. He'd rather do bilateral negotiations,

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<v Speaker 1>So I can I anticipate that that will continue in

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<v Speaker 1>a Biden administration. I think we will see more of

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<v Speaker 1>what I described earlier as a multilateral approach, which really

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<v Speaker 1>gets to or speaks to working with our allies so

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<v Speaker 1>that we have a little bit more of a united

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<v Speaker 1>front and maybe more sway with China. So if you

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<v Speaker 1>think about the t PP, the Trans Spacific Partnership Effort,

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<v Speaker 1>you know that was designed to work with our allies

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<v Speaker 1>to create an alternative to the approach that that China

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<v Speaker 1>was taken and taking as it related to trade, and

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<v Speaker 1>I could see with a Biden administration and moved towards

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<v Speaker 1>something more like that. Nicole, I wanted to ask you

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<v Speaker 1>about COVID Night Team because obviously that complicated, to say

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<v Speaker 1>the least, the relationship between US and China. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to sort of tease out the threads necessarily, or

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<v Speaker 1>it takes a little work to tease out the threads

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<v Speaker 1>of what is a trade tension, what is a health tension,

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<v Speaker 1>what is a political tension, what is an economic tension?

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<v Speaker 1>In some ways they're all wrapped up together. What were

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<v Speaker 1>the implications of the world and the US specifically, and

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<v Speaker 1>I guess China on the front end of dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen and how that affected kind of the equation here. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it certainly has complicated the equation because, as I mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>the trifecta earlier earlier of trade, technology and geopolitics. When

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<v Speaker 1>you sprinkle, you know kind of the impact of the

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<v Speaker 1>origins and handling of COVID nineteen. Uh, it really complicates

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<v Speaker 1>further the U. S. China relationship. And I can tell

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<v Speaker 1>you that the impact that we've seen with our clients

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<v Speaker 1>is that you know, they they if they didn't understand

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<v Speaker 1>the need for this before, they now know that they

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<v Speaker 1>really have to diversify their supply chains. We have seen

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of tension in the supply chains around the

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<v Speaker 1>world as a result of COVID nineteen. You know, China

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<v Speaker 1>has been just kind of the center of much of

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing activity, particularly in supply chains, and it's it's just

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's been a wake up call that that

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<v Speaker 1>companies really need to be looking around the corner even

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<v Speaker 1>more around what could happen if the center, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if they if they have too much of an investment

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<v Speaker 1>in one area of the world and their supply chains,

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<v Speaker 1>what that can mean for their businesses overall. China has

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<v Speaker 1>been though so important to call, as you well know,

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<v Speaker 1>to the supply chain. Are people are companies? Is it

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<v Speaker 1>is it more of okay, we need to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>spread out our supply chains. Is it also that we

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<v Speaker 1>need to reduce our exposure to China? I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of both because certainly what China, China

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<v Speaker 1>has an advantaged because they've really been successful at at

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<v Speaker 1>creating the value as it relates to the supply chains,

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:54.960
<v Speaker 1>particularly with manufacturing companies who are global. That's been a

0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:59.079
<v Speaker 1>great base h for um for such companies and they've

0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 1>perfected that craft. And certainly there are other countries that

0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 1>can benefit from some of the shifts, like Vietnam and

0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 1>and even India, but they aren't at the same level

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.920
<v Speaker 1>as China in terms of their maturity in the supply chains.

0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 1>So I think that what companies are doing is, you know,

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 1>they know and recognize that they need to remain in China,

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 1>but they're beginning to build in other areas as well

0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 1>to try to hedge their bets a bit. And some

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:29.720
<v Speaker 1>of that may even involve where it's appropriate economically restoring

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:34.280
<v Speaker 1>to the US. You know, one of the other political issues,

0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:37.720
<v Speaker 1>political and trade and economic issues has been you know,

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.559
<v Speaker 1>right here on this continent, Nicole, and I know you're

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.040
<v Speaker 1>familiar with this as well, very familiar, which is the

0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.000
<v Speaker 1>U s m c A, the re cut of NAFTA.

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:51.319
<v Speaker 1>What did that tell us about the state of trade

0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 1>as it relates to you know, our neighbors to the

0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:57.760
<v Speaker 1>north and South Canada, Mexico. Well, I think that's what's

0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:02.520
<v Speaker 1>really important to recognize today is that regions are competing,

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.880
<v Speaker 1>not just countries, and so it's important to have a

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 1>strong North American trade agreement for our region to be successful.

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:14.080
<v Speaker 1>It benefits the US, China and Mexico. So I think that,

0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:18.559
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's it's been important and important development. It

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:22.520
<v Speaker 1>did modernize NaSTA. In fact, the irony Jason is it

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.880
<v Speaker 1>was modeled after the TPP that the Obama administrations put forward.

0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.480
<v Speaker 1>A lot of the provisions that are there are are

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.840
<v Speaker 1>very much along the lines of what I talked about

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:35.960
<v Speaker 1>in terms of focuses on labor and environmental concerns. So,

0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think it's very positive that the that

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:42.880
<v Speaker 1>the North American region is able to be competitive with

0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world. So so much of this

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:51.880
<v Speaker 1>whether we're talking about US China, whether we're talking about

0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.400
<v Speaker 1>U S. M c A, or as Carol Master likes

0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 1>to called Usmica because you know, we just love acronyms.

0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 1>She doesn't actually I just teach out that other do that. Um.

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 1>But you know, when I think about this through a

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:08.760
<v Speaker 1>political lens, Nicole. So much of it comes back to,

0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.600
<v Speaker 1>especially in a presidential election year, two jobs, and that's

0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.120
<v Speaker 1>the way it's framed. That's the way it's framed on

0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 1>both sides of the equation. You know. I was listening

0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.480
<v Speaker 1>to the I'm sort of showing a little my podcast

0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>listening here. I was traveling this weekend with my son,

0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:27.120
<v Speaker 1>and we listened to the Joe Rogan interview with Bernie

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.160
<v Speaker 1>Sanders from like way back in the Day, which are

0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.200
<v Speaker 1>from a year or so ago, which is interesting to

0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.360
<v Speaker 1>listen to because there's obviously no talk of a pandemic.

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 1>But one of the things that Bernie Sanders on the

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:38.760
<v Speaker 1>far left talks about is the same thing that you

0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:42.320
<v Speaker 1>hear from President Trump about, you know, offshoring jobs and

0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:46.160
<v Speaker 1>taking care of American workers. And that's the political lens

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.360
<v Speaker 1>that we that so many people see this through. How

0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:53.080
<v Speaker 1>does this fit in and how does it get magnified

0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:56.400
<v Speaker 1>the jobs question when it comes to trade because we're

0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:01.280
<v Speaker 1>in a presidential year. You know, it's a a question, Jason,

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.280
<v Speaker 1>and I don't know that I have the perfect answer,

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 1>but but what I would say is that the positive

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.200
<v Speaker 1>of the U S m c A is that you know,

0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 1>there's there was a lot of focus on UM the

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 1>content in the region US content UH, ensuring that the

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.400
<v Speaker 1>levels were higher in terms of being able to take

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.080
<v Speaker 1>advantage of the of the most favorite nation status, so

0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.360
<v Speaker 1>to speak, within the within the region having a certain

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 1>level a higher level of US content and goods and

0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:34.760
<v Speaker 1>services than existed under NaSTA. And and that's good for jobs.

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's good for American jobs, you know, especially

0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:40.120
<v Speaker 1>when you look at an industry like the automotive industry,

0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:44.280
<v Speaker 1>where products at various stages of completion are going back

0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:48.120
<v Speaker 1>and forth brought across both the northern border and the

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 1>southern border daily several times. That's good for jobs. I

0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:55.360
<v Speaker 1>think though, what I will say is in a political

0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 1>year like we have now, you know, trade is a

0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:02.040
<v Speaker 1>very convenient boogeyman. And I think that you know, often

0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:06.200
<v Speaker 1>both parties use use it to to varying degrees. Um,

0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.560
<v Speaker 1>if we look at the facts, you know, I think

0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:12.800
<v Speaker 1>that that they bear out that increases and exports and

0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:15.240
<v Speaker 1>if we look at it even between you know, Canada,

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:20.480
<v Speaker 1>the US and Mexico create jobs and support jobs, sustained jobs.

0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.879
<v Speaker 1>And when you think about that, and you think about

0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:26.280
<v Speaker 1>the North America competing with the rest of the world

0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.119
<v Speaker 1>and and exporting to the rest of the world. That

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.720
<v Speaker 1>is also good for American jobs. So it's it's a

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.120
<v Speaker 1>tough it's a tough thing, but it's it's something that

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:37.960
<v Speaker 1>is certainly in an election year, does get elevated in

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.199
<v Speaker 1>the way you suggest it, Nicole, while we have you

0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:42.439
<v Speaker 1>and I am curious because since you have such a

0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:47.040
<v Speaker 1>great direct line into you know, many of the nations

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 1>and worlds kind of big companies, I am curious, um

0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:54.200
<v Speaker 1>how nervous they are about the second half of the year.

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.119
<v Speaker 1>You know here they are looking at, you know, potentially

0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>a change in the White House or continuation of the

0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.399
<v Speaker 1>current administration. And then we also have the virus and

0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:06.119
<v Speaker 1>the impact that that is having on many many businesses,

0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:09.359
<v Speaker 1>on workers, on the economy. I'm just curious about what

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>you're hearing from them on that front. Yes, well, I

0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:17.760
<v Speaker 1>thank you, Carol. The the question is is a good one,

0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.200
<v Speaker 1>and it really varies by industry. As as we're seeing.

0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, our clients and travel and tourism

0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:27.320
<v Speaker 1>are very nervous. The COVID virus not being under control

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.160
<v Speaker 1>has really hurt them, uh, financially and and there's really

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:33.320
<v Speaker 1>at this point we don't know where the bottom is,

0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:36.560
<v Speaker 1>and so there is concerned about that uncertainty. Uh, the

0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty around you know, consumer purchasing patterns ways on our

0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:44.840
<v Speaker 1>clients minds. Um, supply chain continues to be you know,

0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:47.480
<v Speaker 1>stability of the supply chain continues to be a concern.

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.320
<v Speaker 1>And then when and those of the things that no

0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:53.960
<v Speaker 1>one can control, you know, President controump Trump can't control those,

0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:58.160
<v Speaker 1>a President Biden wouldn't be able to control those. All

0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 1>we can do is try to manage this by I

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 1>ris um. The uncertainty around the change in administration and

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:07.640
<v Speaker 1>policy direction, I think is is common at this juncture

0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 1>in our political calendar. Um. I think our clients you know,

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 1>want to know, you know, kind of where the regulatory

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.760
<v Speaker 1>direction will be depending on who wins the White House.

0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:21.399
<v Speaker 1>With President Trump, I assume it's more of the same

0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 1>and they do too. But you know, there's still so

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:30.280
<v Speaker 1>much uncertainty given many of the changes in norms that

0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 1>existed and allowed multinational companies based in the US and

0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:39.199
<v Speaker 1>otherwise to make do the long term business planning that

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:43.480
<v Speaker 1>they are accustomed to doing. So what's the biggest challenge

0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.480
<v Speaker 1>if if we do see a Biden administration, this sort

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.000
<v Speaker 1>of goes back to where we started at the beginning, Nicole,

0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 1>Just to wrap up our conversation here, if there is

0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:57.000
<v Speaker 1>a Biden administration, what's the single biggest challenge when it

0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.639
<v Speaker 1>comes to trated What's the first thing you would advise

0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:05.440
<v Speaker 1>a Biden administration to do to potentially change the direction

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.479
<v Speaker 1>of where we are, especially when it comes to getting

0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:12.600
<v Speaker 1>to a multilateral world, a more multilateral world. Well, the

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>first thing that I would have uh advise the President

0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.520
<v Speaker 1>Biden to do, and this is even broader than trade,

0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:23.040
<v Speaker 1>it has happens to really relate to US foreign policy

0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:26.880
<v Speaker 1>generally is outreached to our allies and and and and

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.960
<v Speaker 1>reassuring our allies that the United States is interested in

0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:33.400
<v Speaker 1>a multilateral approach to trade. I mean, if you look

0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:35.760
<v Speaker 1>at it, Jason, I mean we've been waring with some

0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:39.320
<v Speaker 1>of our traditional allies in Europe over trade. They don't

0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:41.560
<v Speaker 1>know what box we're coming out of, you know, and

0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.080
<v Speaker 1>not to mention China and the rest of Asia. So

0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:46.280
<v Speaker 1>I think the first thing that the that the President

0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:49.480
<v Speaker 1>Biden would need to do is really try to get

0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:52.800
<v Speaker 1>back to level two levels set the leadership that the

0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:55.920
<v Speaker 1>United States has had in the areas of foreign policy

0:20:55.920 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 1>and trade that have really been altered to a point

0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 1>where they're they're kind of, in my view, unrecognizable, and

0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:06.520
<v Speaker 1>they aren't recognizable to our our allies and to global businesses.

0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 1>I think we need to kind of go back to

0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:11.320
<v Speaker 1>the center and then go from there. I think that

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.720
<v Speaker 1>would be the best thing to do. Interesting, all right, Well, uh,

0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:16.040
<v Speaker 1>we know a lot of people are going to be

0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:18.639
<v Speaker 1>focused on this, especially over the next few months. We

0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:21.360
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate that overview, and you spending so much time

0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:23.800
<v Speaker 1>with us. Nicole lamb Hale, she's a fellow at the

0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:28.000
<v Speaker 1>Deaf and Phelps Institute, also former Sister Secretary of Commerce

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:31.680
<v Speaker 1>for Manufacturing and Services in the Obama administration. She joined

0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:35.000
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from the nation's capital. Carroll, some

0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.679
<v Speaker 1>really good context, I mean, and important to think about

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:40.159
<v Speaker 1>these issues. I feel like we get so caught up

0:21:40.160 --> 0:21:42.680
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of the politics. This is just some

0:21:42.760 --> 0:21:45.800
<v Speaker 1>good old fashioned policy, Shawn don in somewhere. It's like

0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:50.119
<v Speaker 1>they just had a twenty five minute conversation about It's

0:21:50.200 --> 0:21:52.800
<v Speaker 1>reality check, right, because we do spend so much time

0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:55.959
<v Speaker 1>talking about the virus, and understandably so, it impacts, you know,

0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:58.840
<v Speaker 1>all of the industries that we touch upon. But at

0:21:58.880 --> 0:22:01.960
<v Speaker 1>the same time, she's got clients who are very much

0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:05.000
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the trade environment, right and going back to that,

0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:07.480
<v Speaker 1>that's a core thing in terms of you know, how

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:10.480
<v Speaker 1>they construct their business or develop longer term strategies, whether

0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 1>it's reassessing or you know, redesigning their supply chain. So, um,

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 1>a really deep die when it comes to trade, loved,

0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:20.520
<v Speaker 1>and it's all connected. It's all connected, the politics, the

0:22:20.520 --> 0:22:22.880
<v Speaker 1>economics of it. And I mean, when was the last

0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:26.119
<v Speaker 1>time we talked about your favorite trade agreement US MACA

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:31.240
<v Speaker 1>back back, back on the agenda