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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm gonna just mout that actions.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go throwing.

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Speaker 4: I'm sitting up to cash touch stars.

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Speaker 5: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 5: they go to wins.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 1: It's just the ultimate kabar you.

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Speaker 2: Want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up everybody?

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's NFL Week seven. We

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Speaker 5: got more anytime touchdowns for you from every single game.

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Speaker 5: As always, I'm joined by one of the most accurate

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Speaker 5: rankers in the game, Sean Kerner. I'm joined by touchdown

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Speaker 5: betting guru Jill Glance. Got to those guys in a second.

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Speaker 5: Last week we hit on a few of these Latin Macongaey,

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Speaker 5: Josh downs May Chase Josh Jacobs with two plus and

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Speaker 5: Ashton Genty Kerner, how you feeling about Week number seven?

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Speaker 2: Good?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: And I hit that the Michael Myers the Halloween parlady,

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Speaker 4: you know, Genty going back to the Michael Myers stance,

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Speaker 4: you know, behind the Lion scrimmage and Michael Mayer who

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Speaker 4: also scored. So I don't even know if we tracked that,

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Speaker 4: but you know that was my favorite party of the

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Speaker 4: week after the fact.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm knowing good about week seven.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if two Raiders will score in a

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Speaker 2: game again either.

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Speaker 3: That is true.

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Speaker 4: That is true that that only gets the Titans. That

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Speaker 4: was only because they're facing the Titans.

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Speaker 2: Joe, how's your weeknd? How are you feeling about Week seven?

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Speaker 1: I'm feeling pretty good. I like the fact that we're

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Speaker 1: now seven weeks deep. We've got some guys like flag Plant,

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Speaker 1: guys like if I know that if Sean has a

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Speaker 1: Detroit Lions game, I know Isaac Deslaw is coming, I

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Speaker 1: know that you've got a Bengals game, probably t Higgins

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Speaker 1: is coming. Like That's the thing now that we've started

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Speaker 1: to do this after a few weeks, is I feel

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Speaker 1: like we're starting to get the beaten path of which

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Speaker 1: guys we like in the process that we go through

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Speaker 1: how we get there.

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna I'm full discoverer. I'm not loyal to

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Speaker 2: these guys at all.

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Speaker 5: Maybe they it's just a coincidence, but I will bet

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Speaker 5: anyone for a touchdown like anyone that who's odds are

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Speaker 5: are off, because that's how it goes. It kind of

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Speaker 5: goes back and forth, and uh, you know, teams kind

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Speaker 5: of see that, oh this guy hasn't scored in a while,

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Speaker 5: Like we knew James Jamison Williams is gonna get it.

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Speaker 5: And eventually last week, uh you know, Tramis Hunter is

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Speaker 5: probably coming pretty soon. Tech came last week. Like it's

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Speaker 5: you're gonna see things like that all the time.

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Speaker 4: Tanner Hudson a couple of us. One couldn't do that

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Speaker 4: when I took him. But yeah, a couple weeks later.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, man, I mean Bengals, you know they now he's

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Speaker 5: not playing again.

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Speaker 2: So that there you go with Tanner Hudson. You got

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Speaker 2: to get in and get out.

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Speaker 5: But uh, we're gonna get to anytime touchdowns every single

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Speaker 5: game on the Sunday slate, uh Monday as well. If

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Speaker 5: you want to tail some of these bets for the

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Speaker 5: quick flip wink in the podcast video description or but

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Speaker 5: Action Network dot bet. Now before we get into the touchdowns,

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Speaker 5: I'll toss it over to myself from a word from

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Speaker 5: our sponsor. The Action Network podcast has teamed up with

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Speaker 2: The crown is yours all right.

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Speaker 5: Sunday starts with another one of these international games. We

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Speaker 5: got Rams Jags at Wembley.

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Speaker 2: For the Jacksonville.

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Speaker 5: Jaguars, I gotta roll with Hunter Long plus four fifty.

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Speaker 5: He is their main red zone tight end and he's

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Speaker 5: been their main red zone tight end and now with

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Speaker 5: Brent Strange out, that has continued.

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Speaker 2: You see a lot more Johnny Montt between the twenties.

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Speaker 5: But this is also a revenge game for one hundred Long,

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Speaker 5: So like him at plus four fifty and four the

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Speaker 5: Rams Jordan Whittington plus three twenty five. He has been

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Speaker 5: that number three receiver in the red zone all year.

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Speaker 5: Now you're looking at Pooka Nakua like we not in

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Speaker 5: the lineup. So it's just gonna be Devonte Adams. You know,

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Speaker 5: maybe they go more two tight end sets as well,

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Speaker 5: but either way, I think Whittington should have a role

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Speaker 5: in the red zone. So like him at plus three

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Speaker 5: twenty five for the Sunday slate that started off with

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Speaker 5: Raiders at Chiefs, big spread in this one, Kerner, where

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Speaker 5: are you going?

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm going right back to the well with Michael

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Speaker 4: Mayer at plus three seventy five. He cashed for me

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Speaker 4: last week and looks like, you know, brock Bearers will

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Speaker 4: be out again this week. I think he's doubtful, so

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Speaker 4: you know, we got to wait and see. But again,

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Speaker 4: Mayor is one of the best backup tight ends in

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Speaker 4: the league. He was a second round pick just a

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Speaker 4: couple of years ago. Many thought he would go in

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Speaker 4: the first round and Jill his his comp was actually

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Speaker 4: Jason Witten. He's in, you know, an excellent two way

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Speaker 4: tight end and so he's been developing behind Bowers now

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Speaker 4: for the past year and a half and whenever he's

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Speaker 4: gonna get a spot start, I'm going too bad on him,

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Speaker 4: mark my word. So taking again here at plus three

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Speaker 4: seventy five, I'm projecting this coast to plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 3: So I think this is way off.

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Speaker 4: And on the chief side, I'm gonna go with Brischard Smith,

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Speaker 4: the rookie at plus five twenty five. He's been seeing

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Speaker 4: his role expand a bit over the past few weeks,

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Speaker 4: mainly in the passing game. It's crazy, he's not out

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Speaker 4: there much, but when he is, they target him. He's

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Speaker 4: seen a target on forty three percent of his routes.

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Speaker 4: That is absolutely insane, probably not sustainable, but it also

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Speaker 4: shows that when he's out there, I mean they're scheming

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Speaker 4: out plays for him. So you know, if he sees

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Speaker 4: any kind of increase in playing time, which is possible,

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Speaker 4: especially in you know, a game where the Chiefs could

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Speaker 4: blow out the Raiders, you know, I'm gonna be on

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Speaker 4: him here, and yeah, he has big playability. I could

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Speaker 4: he went downfield like he sometimes he acts like a

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Speaker 4: wide receiver, so I think they could actually throw it

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Speaker 4: to him doubt field. Similar with Ty Johnson in Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: So I like the guy who we're getting Umbershart Smith

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Speaker 4: here at plus five twenty five.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the Chiefs look like they were trying to trade

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Speaker 5: for a running back, and so the fact that they're

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Speaker 5: going to Smiths more and more tells you that his

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Speaker 5: role could increase just because they want to see more

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Speaker 5: of him as they go forward this season and probably give,

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Speaker 5: you know, get some help for a Hunter or Pacheco.

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Speaker 5: But Jill, we got the Dolphins at the Browns. Total

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Speaker 5: just keeps dropping in this one.

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Speaker 2: Where are you looking for some touchdowns?

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Speaker 1: Well, before I start, I just wanted to comment on that.

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Speaker 1: Comp to Jason Witten. I just hope that you mean

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Speaker 1: the player and not the announcer, because when brutal. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: even if we got Raiders version of Jason Witten is

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Speaker 1: probably pretty good compared to that, right, So okay.

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Speaker 3: How about how about Greg Olson? Then? Great great announcer

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Speaker 3: and Greg tight end there.

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Speaker 1: All right, I love that one. All right, three leg Greg,

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Speaker 1: all right, here we go, all right, Dolphins and Browns. Hey, yeah,

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Speaker 1: so he wrote the song me.

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Speaker 2: Get good, give me your piss, all right?

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 1: A right, fair warning. I almost considered no touchdown for

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Speaker 1: this because right now, Kevin Roth with the weather reports

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Speaker 1: already coming in, which again it seems unfathomable that you

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Speaker 1: could see this kind of weather, but apparently fifty to

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Speaker 1: sixty mile per hour wins like gusts up to this,

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Speaker 1: so I think it's fair to say the deep ball

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Speaker 1: is probably not an option. So we probably are going

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Speaker 1: to be looking at either on the ground or guys

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Speaker 1: who are going to catch short passes. So on the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins side, I'm gonna spread it between both Malik Washington

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Speaker 1: and Nick Westbrook AKNYE Malik Washington around seven to one

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Speaker 1: and Wi around eleven to one. Uh really, to me,

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Speaker 1: the reason why we're just going with them, they're the

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Speaker 1: short range wide receivers in this offense right now, they

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Speaker 1: have the lowest a dop both of them, seeing their

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Speaker 1: route rates and snap rates go up with the Tyreek

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Speaker 1: Hill injury. So and the thing is right now, they're

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Speaker 1: both kind of playing the same amount of snaps, the

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Speaker 1: same kind of role. So I don't really want to

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Speaker 1: take anything with Jayalen Watta at this point, so I

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Speaker 1: would rather just kind of split, you know, half a

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Speaker 1: unit between the two. But on the Brown side, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go with Harold Fannon here. David Najokho's banged up

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Speaker 1: with a knee injury. He might even be on the

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Speaker 1: trade block, uh fan. He leads the Browns actually, like

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Speaker 1: the whole team in catches and receiving yards. So facing

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Speaker 1: a Dolphins defense that hasn't really stopped much. They haven't

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Speaker 1: really stopped tight ends at all. Thirtieth in defensive DV

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Speaker 1: WA versus a position four touchdowns allowed. And we saw

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Speaker 1: even last week when David Nijoko went down, he kind

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Speaker 1: of took over that number one role, right, So I

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Speaker 1: like him to continue to be a dump off for

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Speaker 1: Dylan Gabriel. So those are the three, Harold Fannon plus

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Speaker 1: three fifty, Malik Washington, and Nick Westbrook. Akinya, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 5: Think at this point every single Dolphin receiver is a

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Speaker 5: short range receiver too, is not. He's not doing it

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Speaker 5: against Miles Garrett in and boys especially, So uh, next up,

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Speaker 5: we got the Saints at the Chicago Bears, Chicago. I

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Speaker 5: gotta go back to Roma Duneesa here plus one twelve.

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Speaker 5: I know he had a down game last week in

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Speaker 5: the win over Washington, but you know, score cool back

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Speaker 5: and he's been scoring in every other game pretty much.

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Speaker 5: So like him here against the Saints and for the Saints.

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Speaker 5: Rashid Shahed at plus two to seventy five. He is

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Speaker 5: a guy who you know, he he tends to do

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Speaker 5: well against man covered, you can get downfield. The Bears

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Speaker 5: have been playing more man coverage this year than they

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Speaker 5: have in years past, So like Shaheed to get loose.

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Speaker 5: And also, we don't really know, you know, what's going

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Speaker 5: on with Chris o'lave. He might be on the trade blox,

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Speaker 5: so by the time you listen to this, you know

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Speaker 5: he might be on a different team. And then you

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Speaker 5: got Brandon Cooks out there, who's invisible, and so it's

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Speaker 5: kind of a mishmash at this receiver spot outside of

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Speaker 5: Shaheed for the Saints, a lot of tight ends mixing in.

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Speaker 5: So I like Shahed as the best option for New Orleans.

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Speaker 5: So dude today and Shahed in Saints Bears. Kerner Eagles, Vikings,

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Speaker 5: Vikings coming off to buy Eagles coming off a long

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Speaker 5: time to think about their loss to rookie Jackson Dark

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Speaker 5: maybe they face another rookie again or their former former

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Speaker 5: non super Bowl winning quarterback because he got benched before,

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Speaker 5: he got hurt before it. But it's either Wentz or

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Speaker 5: McCarthy for the for the Vikings. Do you like in

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Speaker 5: this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? So this game is tricky because not a lot

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Speaker 3: of odds out there right now.

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Speaker 4: I think they might they might be waiting to see

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Speaker 4: which quarterback is starting for the Vikings, but I don't

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Speaker 4: know why that would matter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't matter to do you have one higher

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Speaker 2: rate or something or no.

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Speaker 4: No, it doesn't matter. So I don't know why we're

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Speaker 4: not getting any odds here. So but I did see

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Speaker 4: some odds out there, like before they were taken off,

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Speaker 4: so I'm going with those. But I think for the

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Speaker 4: Eagle side, DeVante Smith to score first should be around

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Speaker 4: twelve to one. It might be even like fourteen to

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Speaker 4: one come Sunday, But he's the angle I am showing

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Speaker 4: some value on. You know, he's only scored once this year.

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Speaker 4: I know they're trying to get both receivers of the

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Speaker 4: ball a little bit more and this is a matchup

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Speaker 4: for you know, Vikings defensive corner of Brian Flores is

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Speaker 4: very aggressive. You know, he loves to send the blitz.

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Speaker 4: So you know Smith could get open here for a

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Speaker 4: longer touchdown early in the game. So I think DeVante

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Speaker 4: to score first, anything twelve.

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Speaker 3: To one or better.

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Speaker 4: I'm showing value on and on the Viking side, I

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Speaker 4: know Jill loves this guy this week.

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Speaker 3: I love him.

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Speaker 4: Jordan Addison to score, but two touchdowns, you can get

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Speaker 4: it around thirty to one, So you know, it's around

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Speaker 4: twenty eight to one right now. Once I get back,

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Speaker 4: once it's back on the board, it should be around

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Speaker 4: that range. But not even sure who the Vikings quarterback

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Speaker 4: is going to be this week, But like I said,

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Speaker 4: it probably doesn't matter. And you know Addison he missed

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Speaker 4: the first three games. He was you know, suspended for

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Speaker 4: the first quarter last game, but he's looked really good

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Speaker 4: in his playing time this year. And I know Quinnon

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Speaker 4: Mitchell's banged up. You know, they might be trying to

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Speaker 4: double justin Jefferson here. So I think Addison could get

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Speaker 4: open here for not one, but two touchdowns. So I

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Speaker 4: like taking a swing here at more of a long shot,

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Speaker 4: bet on Addison to reach the m zone twice here.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, believe Curned that you are one hundred percent success

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Speaker 5: race on this show at picking Vikings multi touchdown games.

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Speaker 5: I think, Yeah, Mason, I want to say it was

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Speaker 5: week one or earlier in the year and yet cash that.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, let's go two for two here. Jill Panthers Jets.

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Speaker 5: This game is a very weird kind of game on paper.

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Speaker 5: The Jets have no receivers. The Panthers are due for

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Speaker 5: a major wet down.

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Speaker 2: What you got here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know that you're pretty heavily into the Jets

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Speaker 1: this week, given that the Panthers are inexplicably road favorites.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, we're gonna take Jalen Cooker. We're gonna start

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Speaker 1: with him. For me, he's one of the best up

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Speaker 1: and coming slot receivers in the NFL. Now, he only

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Speaker 1: scored twice last season, but Raybond you had mentioned like

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Speaker 1: he's probably gonna take over this hunter rental role and

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Speaker 1: phase him out of this offense. Right So I think

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Speaker 1: as well McMillan was scoring last week that if anything,

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Speaker 1: is probably going to add more attention to him where

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Speaker 1: I expect Sauce Gardner to at least shadow him as

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Speaker 1: much as possible when he's on that side of the field.

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Speaker 1: And then also just so much like again, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to get too caught up and coach speak, but

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Speaker 1: the rave reviews that this guy has gotten in practice

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Speaker 1: and in the preseason, you would think he was their

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Speaker 1: best wide receiver on the team, right, So getting him

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Speaker 1: around plus three to eighty love that spot. Mason Taylor.

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Speaker 1: I know you like him as well. That's who I'm

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Speaker 1: going to go with on the Jets side, is going

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Speaker 1: to probably be the top receiving option for them with

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Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson out. Panthers, they've been awful versus tight ends,

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Speaker 1: not just this year, last year too. Four touchdowns this year,

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Speaker 1: eleven last year. Nothing has really changed on that front.

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Speaker 1: Still playing over eighty percent of snaps for all Jets

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Speaker 1: tight ends this season. So that's who I would bet

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Speaker 1: to score on the Jets side. But the one sneaky

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Speaker 1: long shot in this game that I do like is

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Speaker 1: Andrew Beck. He's a full back tight end only probably

298
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Speaker 1: plays like a handful of snaps. But I think the Jets,

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Speaker 1: given their shortcomings on offense and where they're at zero

300
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Speaker 1: to six, I think they're gonna jump it up a

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Speaker 1: little bit. And he's somebody that I would look at

302
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Speaker 1: because in Week five, that's kind of what they did.

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Speaker 1: They did a misdirection play, he caught a quick pass

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Speaker 1: in the end zone, and he's gotten some historical touchdown

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Speaker 1: pedigree because he missed pretty much all of twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four with a knee injury, but in twenty twenty three

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Speaker 1: with the Texans, he was the most profitable anytime touchdown

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Speaker 1: score of the season for one hundred and twenty one units.

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Speaker 3: Dude.

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Speaker 1: He caught two touchdowns, rush for another, had a touchdown

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Speaker 1: from a block kick touchdown. So the fact that we're

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Speaker 1: getting this at thirty to one, I'm not saying put

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Speaker 1: a full unit or even half unit, but I'm sprinkling

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Speaker 1: on Andrew Beck for a long shot in this game.

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, I think if you just put a unit

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Speaker 5: on every single like backup tight end against the Panthers

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Speaker 5: over the past year and change, you'd probably be a

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Speaker 5: big So I mean, why stop it?

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Speaker 3: Beck?

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Speaker 2: We could go Stone Smart?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, I mean, I'm not even kidding.

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Speaker 2: Jeremy Rutger.

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Speaker 5: And if Johanny Woods is active, watch out all right?

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Speaker 3: Sounds like.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean I'm serious too.

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Speaker 5: It's if Johanni was his active, it will be to

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Speaker 5: play offense, all right. Uh, speaking of guys, you know

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Speaker 5: backup scoring. We got Patriots at Titans. We got a

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Speaker 5: new code for the Titans. So don't really know what

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Speaker 5: the hell is going on on this team. I'm just

331
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Speaker 5: gonna go with Ewick iuman Or for the Titans at

332
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Speaker 5: plus two to fifty. I think he's been their best

333
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Speaker 5: offensive player this year, and that's not saying too much,

334
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Speaker 5: but he really hasn't had as many opportunities as he

335
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Speaker 5: could have. You know, Calvin Ridley's still been there and

336
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Speaker 5: been companding a lot of work, but he's banged up

337
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Speaker 5: now too. So I think this is about the time

338
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Speaker 5: when you know, you start seeing more of these rookies

339
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Speaker 5: really get involved. You know, they already fired the coach.

340
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Speaker 5: I think that's kind of a message to get these

341
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Speaker 5: guys going. And for the Patriots, this is a spot

342
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Speaker 5: where I'm you could seriously play every Patriot runner, like

343
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Speaker 5: so you could play Stevenson, you could play tray Bon Anderson,

344
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Speaker 5: and you could play Drake Mayd. To score a rushing touchdown,

345
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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the guy who's most likely in

346
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Speaker 5: Rimondre Stevenson for the purposes of the show at even money.

347
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Speaker 5: But this is a Titan team that's allowed eleven touchdowns

348
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Speaker 5: to running backs in six games, So there's gonna probably

349
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Speaker 5: be multiple touchdowns from at least one of them if

350
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Speaker 5: both don't score.

351
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Speaker 2: Out of the backfield.

352
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Speaker 5: Kerner Colts at Chargers one of the higher totals on

353
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Speaker 5: the slate. A little bit of a thirty at the

354
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Speaker 5: receiver positions for both teams with some guys missing practice.

355
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Speaker 3: Where are you looking?

356
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Speaker 4: Yeah, with the high total, I'm going to go Jonathan

357
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Speaker 4: Taylor to score two touchdowns here at plus three fifty.

358
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Speaker 4: He's just playing at a high level right now. Obviously,

359
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,200
Speaker 4: he's one of the top workhorse backs in the league,

360
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,479
Speaker 4: and the Chargers have been more of a run funnel.

361
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Speaker 3: Defense this year.

362
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Speaker 4: They're eighth in DBOA against the pass, twenty six against run,

363
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,680
Speaker 4: and they've actually allowed back to back games a running

364
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 4: back has scored two touchdowns on them Bill two weeks

365
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 4: ago and Devon ah Chan last week. So Jonathan Taylor

366
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Speaker 4: making a third straight week seems likely to me. So

367
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Speaker 4: I'm actually showing more value on the two touchdowns than

368
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 4: the one touchdown. And then on the other side, I

369
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Speaker 4: got to stick with Ronde Gatson the second here at

370
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 4: plus three twenty five. We finally saw the Chargers tight

371
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 4: end room fully healthy with Will Disley returning last week,

372
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 4: and it was Tyler Conklin was the odd man out

373
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Speaker 4: of their main three tight ends, and Gatson had his

374
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Speaker 4: highest routes round rate of the season last week seventy

375
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Speaker 4: one percent, So it's clear they're unleashing Gatson as the

376
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 4: main pass catching tight end, really talented fifth round pick.

377
00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 4: I was surprised he fell the fifth round. He gives

378
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 4: me Darren Waller vibes, and again he's coming off the

379
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 4: best game of the season. He had seven catches sixty

380
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 4: eight yards, so it's only a matter of time before

381
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,120
Speaker 4: he does find the end zone. And so I'm pricing

382
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:27,159
Speaker 4: this at like plus two ninety assuming Quentin Johnson's playing.

383
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: So imagine if Quentin Johnson's ruled out, I'm going to

384
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,800
Speaker 4: show even more value on it. So I like locking

385
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,480
Speaker 4: it in at plus three twenty five.

386
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, he was one of those guys who just got

387
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,960
Speaker 5: me scared when I put in, you know, his projected

388
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,120
Speaker 5: snap rate and he jumped up to like tight end

389
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:42,600
Speaker 5: like eight or something on the site.

390
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:43,480
Speaker 2: That hell.

391
00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 5: But I got a quick question for you, Kerrey before

392
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 5: we move on to Giants Broncos. So when you're betting

393
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 5: a two I gotta score two touchdowns like Taylor, and

394
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 5: you're putting it in a parlay, do you only play

395
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 5: the parlay with the two touchdowns or do you also

396
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 5: sprinkle in like just some Taylor to score one touchdown?

397
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:01,640
Speaker 2: Gads didn't score one touchdown?

398
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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, just to increase your chance, especially if you're

399
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 4: parlaying it, because you know it's more likely that he

400
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,120
Speaker 4: scores one. But I think it as a solo play,

401
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 4: i'd go two touchdowns. If you're doing some sort of parlay,

402
00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 4: definitely want to do Gatson. And then if you're doing

403
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 4: a parlay, you know, you do Taylor, you know, a

404
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 4: touchdown and then maybe like you know, Tyler Warren who

405
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,119
Speaker 4: I love, or even Daniel Jones some other cult to

406
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 4: score too, because I do think this is going to

407
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:29,640
Speaker 4: be a high scoring game.

408
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, when you do a.

409
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 4: Parlay, I we just do Taylor anytime touchdown, But two

410
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 4: plus would be just a standalone bet.

411
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 3: Gotcha? All right?

412
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,440
Speaker 2: Giants Broncos Jill.

413
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:44,440
Speaker 1: We got yeah. I mean this is basically the man coverageable, right,

414
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 1: Like both teams are top two man coverage rates. I

415
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:48,960
Speaker 1: think that's only going to help the potential of a

416
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,760
Speaker 1: rushing quarterback touchdown. So I am going to go with

417
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 1: bo Nix. Frankly, I just want to take his rushing

418
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: ability and his ability to score, then banking on him

419
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 1: passing because he has been so radock this year and

420
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 1: the Giants, to their credit low keeping better stop in

421
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 1: the past. You take away that Cowboys game, and I

422
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 1: know that's easy to say, but if you just remove

423
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 1: that from the sample, overall, they've been very good this

424
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,479
Speaker 1: year and compared to the run where they rank just

425
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: like dead last and defensive DVA.

426
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 3: Right.

427
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,440
Speaker 1: So for me, this is kind of a way of

428
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 1: not getting burned by trying to do like the Evan

429
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 1: Ingram bed or the you know, I'm gonna take Julia McLaughlan.

430
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: You know, of course, I'm still stinging from that bat

431
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 1: with Nate Atkins scoring last week. Of course, as we

432
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 1: called it that it was gonna be some sort of

433
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 1: Adam Troutman or Nate Atkins touchdown bed instead. But at

434
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 1: least this way we're kind of taking away the Sean

435
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 1: Payton ridiculousness where he likes to draw up that random

436
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 1: scoring play for the for the tight end four or

437
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: whichever running back has the hot hand, And I think

438
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,119
Speaker 1: this way we could just kind of minimize that and

439
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: take bo Nix in a spot where you're facing a

440
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 1: good matchup with a poor run defense that plays a

441
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 1: lot of man coverage. Now on the Giants side, I

442
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 1: almost went with Jackson dark Shahn. So I'm sorry that

443
00:19:58,359 --> 00:19:59,760
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna have to I'm not gonna be able

444
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 1: to take than this one only just because the Broncos

445
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: run defense like they have not allowed. They only allowed

446
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 1: one rushing touchdowns so far this year, and that was

447
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 1: to Daniel Jones in Week two when he finished with

448
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 1: six carries and only two rushing yards. So again, it

449
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 1: has to be literally like within the two yard line

450
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,159
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable probably betting on a quarterback touchdown against

451
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: that defense, and Jackson Dart is capable. But instead, I

452
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 1: think there's more value on a guy like Theo Johnson

453
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 1: at like five to one, who I think has looked

454
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: very impressive as a pass catcher in this offense. It's

455
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 1: running the second most routes of any Giant behind Wandale Robinson.

456
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: He's got eight red zone targets already, four inside the

457
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 1: ten yard line. And I like to mention that just

458
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 1: because I like to put it in perspective because a

459
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 1: lot of people use this data and they'll be like, well,

460
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 1: this is what's important. But just at the same time,

461
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 1: Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson, Patriots tight end Hunter Henry

462
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 1: those are the same, They have the same amount of targets,

463
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: same amount of red zone snaps and everything else. You

464
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 1: would be difficult to find those guys above three hundred

465
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 1: even against a matchup against the Broncos, right, So, I

466
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 1: just don't think the touchdown market is really up yet

467
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: with Howard Bold Johnson is in this offense now. So

468
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 1: at five to one, to get a tight end one

469
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: against the Broncos defense that I think can get thrown on,

470
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: that's who I would look at.

471
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think you're also getting the number the

472
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 5: Giants numbers skewed because you did have a couple of

473
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 5: Jackson Dart touchdown rushing touchdown, and then you had a

474
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 5: couple of uh that.

475
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,160
Speaker 2: That Scatterboo game where he had three on the ground.

476
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 5: So I just think the you know, the models aren't

477
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 5: really pulling in as much as much upside for the

478
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 5: passing game yet.

479
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 2: But that's that's gonna turn around.

480
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 5: There's no there's no real h like correlation there between

481
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 5: the old and the new. It's just kind of it's

482
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 5: gonna kind of revert to what they're doing throwing the

483
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:39,640
Speaker 5: ball and running, and they're still going to be throwing

484
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 5: the ball against this Bronco defense at some point.

485
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 2: So hey, I like that.

486
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 5: Washington and Dallas right now projected is the highest scoring

487
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 5: game on the week.

488
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 2: For the Cowboys.

489
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 5: A little bit of uncertainty as to how the snap

490
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 5: counts are gonna break down. We could get lamback, we

491
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,959
Speaker 5: could get Kemante Turbin back. Those guys looks like they

492
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go George Pickens here. I think, you know, standalone,

493
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 5: if everyone's out again, he's their most likely touchdown catcher.

494
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 2: And if guys come back, it.

495
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 5: Just takes more coverage off of him and allows him

496
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 5: to get in more single coverage. And that's really you know,

497
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 5: Washington has been a more of a man coverage team

498
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 5: this year. They haven't been a great defense, but they

499
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 5: they played their man coverage at times, and I think

500
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 5: Pickens can take advantage of that. And for the Commanders,

501
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 5: Zach Ertz at two to one, same thing for the Commanders.

502
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 5: A lot of uncertainty at the wide receiver position. Saw

503
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 5: Chris Moore and Luke McCaffrey both score in their last game,

504
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 5: but in this one, I think ERT's you know, over

505
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 5: the middle against this Cowboy defense.

506
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 2: It's really been weak all over, but that loves to

507
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 2: play a lot of zone coverage.

508
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 5: You know, when you play a lot of zone coverage,

509
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 5: I think if Terry mccorran comes back, that actually helps

510
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 5: because you know, then you've got to rotate more coverage

511
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 5: over to him.

512
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: But if not, Erz is just going to be a

513
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 2: target hig.

514
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 5: I think in a game that really looks like a

515
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 5: potential shootout, it's a one to two point spread and

516
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 5: a total in a fifty four to fifty five range.

517
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 5: So if you pickings and nerds and commanders cowboys. All right,

518
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 5: we'll get to the primetime games. But before we continue,

519
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 5: don't forget to sign up for Action Pro for real

520
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 5: time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, Joe Golamp, myself,

521
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 5: and our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access

522
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 5: our pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

523
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 5: Just go to Action network dot com slash pro and

524
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 5: to get twenty dollars off the annual price, you can

525
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 5: use promo code Pod twenty. That's Pod to zero, So

526
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 5: do'll miss out on the best bets at the best prices.

527
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 5: Visit Action Network dot Com slash Pro and use promo

528
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 5: code Pod two zero to get twenty dollars off a

529
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 5: year of action pro. All right, it's time for our

530
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 5: favorite Sunday Anytime Touchdown Parway presented by DraftKings. So we're

531
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 5: gonna get into that before the primetime games.

532
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 2: Sean, who is.

533
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 5: Your favorite Sunday Anytime Touchdown guy?

534
00:23:59,240 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 2: Uh?

535
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Ronde gats in the second

536
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,159
Speaker 4: here at plus three ten. I think we got to

537
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 4: be on him before he scores his first touchdown. I

538
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 4: think that could come as soon as this week.

539
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 2: Joe, who's your guy?

540
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill. He's back over his last ten games. He's

541
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: got seven touchdowns now, scored last week, so I'm gonna

542
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: go back to him here around plus two o five.

543
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 5: All right, I'm rolling with Mason Taylor, Jill. You mentioned

544
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 5: him earlier of the Jets. I think he's a top

545
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 5: target for them. So we got three tight ends for

546
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,719
Speaker 5: our Anytime Touchdown partaway for Sunday presented by DraftKings. Mason Taylor,

547
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 5: Aronde Gadsdon, Taysom Hill. You can get those at forty

548
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 5: two to one at DraftKings. That was our favorite Sunday

549
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 5: Anytime Touchdown Paraway presented by DraftKings let's jump into Sunday

550
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 5: night football. All right, guys, Falcons at Niners. This total

551
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 5: is a luck over, by the way, shout to our

552
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 5: guy Nick Giffen. Big luck over in this one total

553
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 5: has gone up a little bit. I think that has

554
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 5: something to do with is you know, maybe for expected

555
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 5: some guys back for the forty nine ers Wi Sean,

556
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 5: I'll start with you, who do you like for Falcons

557
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 5: at Niners?

558
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 2: With all the injury uncertainty?

559
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's tough to project the Niners right now, but

560
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,719
Speaker 4: I'm going to go George Kittle at plus two twenty,

561
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 4: who might be making his return from his hamscering injury

562
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 4: this week. I would imagine they want him closer to

563
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 4: one hundred percent if he does return, because Jake Tong

564
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 4: just has been playing well enough they could afford to,

565
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,719
Speaker 4: you know, wait another week if needed for Kittle, and

566
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,719
Speaker 4: if he doesn't suit up, then it's voided and this

567
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 4: is a two way parlay. So I feel like this

568
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 4: is a safer route to take right now. And I realize,

569
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 4: you know the Falcons you mentioned last week, Raybond, they've

570
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 4: been excellent against tight ends, but they've been good against

571
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 4: all positions. Really They're just a really good defense this year,

572
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 4: and Dawson Knox did manage to score a touchdown against

573
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 4: them last week. And let's be honest, George Kittle is

574
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 4: gonna be the best tight end they've faced all year

575
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 4: if he does suit up. So I think, you know,

576
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 4: plus two to twenty is a decent price for someone

577
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 4: like Kittle, and if he does return, he's limited. I

578
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 4: would imagine he'd still be out there for most of

579
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 4: the red zone plays.

580
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, we do pivot to tanj Just by any chance, Jawn,

581
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 5: since you are you did call it tanj Just, I

582
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 5: think on the show at one point.

583
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, that's what I was going to say,

584
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 4: if you know Kittle, If Kittle shoots up, he'll be

585
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 4: the best tight end the Falcons have faced. If he doesn't,

586
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: Tanja Just will be the best tight end the Falcons

587
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 4: will face all year. So yeah, yeah, if Kittle's out,

588
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 4: you know, we'll have to see what his price is.

589
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 3: But tanj Just is always sniky Joe.

590
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 5: Who are looking at for a touchdown in Falcons Niners.

591
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to keep it real simple and just

592
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: go with Drake London. I mean, coming off a sixteen

593
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 1: target game, it seems like the Falcons finally figured out, oh,

594
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 1: we should probably pepper this guy with targets, and he

595
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: looked great against the Bills. That's now back to back

596
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: games with him with a touchdown, So I'm I'm perceiving

597
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: that he's going to get ten more targets in this

598
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: game as well. So if you've got a wide receiver one,

599
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: that's what we want.

600
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 5: I'm gonna rode with Kyle youth Check at abouts just

601
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 5: over seven to one plus seven eighteen and the Niners

602
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 5: all the red zone receiving touchdowns have been by backs

603
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 5: and tight ends. You got the tight ends with four,

604
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 5: McCaffrey with three, and then ust Check has one as well,

605
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 5: so you know, Dave not really playing the backup running

606
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 5: back Robinson much, so it's all McCaffrey. And then use

607
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 5: Chek is out there a ton in the red zone

608
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 5: as well. So I like them in this spot because, yeah,

609
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 5: the Falcons are really good defense and it's hard to

610
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 5: kind of get them at the wide receiver position, especially

611
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 5: in the red zone. So I like that to kind

612
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 5: of continue with the Niners at home, I think EUSt

613
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 5: Check gets in at long odds parway use Check Kittle,

614
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 5: Drake London together all to score at anytime touchdown and

615
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 5: you get fifty six to one odds. Next up, we

616
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 5: have the Monday night game with the Bucks at the

617
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 5: Detroit Lions, and Sean, I feel like I keep saying

618
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 5: it the Buck. You know a lot of injury uncertainty

619
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 5: in some of these games, but I'm one thing that

620
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 5: is certain is where you usually go for an anytime touchdown.

621
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 2: When we're talking about the Lions.

622
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,959
Speaker 4: Yep, I'm gonna go with Isaac tasaw here at plus

623
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 4: seven fifty. Of course, he was the cardio king of

624
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 4: Week six twenty two routes without drawing a single target,

625
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 4: and I always say like when it comes into slaw,

626
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 4: he is literally the fifth option in just an absolutely

627
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 4: loaded Lions passing attack. So he's gonna need one or

628
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 4: two pass catchers to go down to really command more

629
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 4: than a couple of targets in the game. But when

630
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 4: he does see the target, it's usually you know, downfield

631
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 4: or in the end zone. So I think that's why

632
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,199
Speaker 4: he's still offering value. He's scored two touchdowns of just

633
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 4: five targets this year, so I think again, just gonna

634
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 4: keep betting on him at you know, plus seven to fifty.

635
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 4: I'm projecting him closer to five to one, again fully

636
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 4: aware that he might goosegg here, but again when he

637
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 4: does get targets, he usually makes plays.

638
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 5: Joe Held got for a touchdown and Lions Bucks should

639
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 5: be a lot of them.

640
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: Well, if if Sean's doing to Slaw, that's the heavy

641
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: lifting on this parlay. So I'm gonna take like a

642
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: Chalky pick and take a mom Ross Saint Brown, who

643
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 1: had just had that critical fourth down drop against the Chiefs,

644
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: and now the Lions are returning home, it's going to

645
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: be a track meet for them that they're splits when

646
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: they play at home. One compared on the road is

647
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: obviously significantly different where they're just their offense hums when

648
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: they play at home. So I think Aman Ross Saint

649
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: Brown he could probably go for two touchdowns, but we'll

650
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: just take them for any time.

651
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 5: For this partly, And I'm gonna go with Rashad White

652
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 5: at minus one fifteen. He saw eighty percent of the

653
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 5: red zone opportunities for the Bucks last week, and it

654
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 5: kind of makes sense.

655
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of guys are banged up.

656
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 5: They might get Mike Evans back but you know, the

657
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 5: Lions played a lot of man coverage. Some of these

658
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 5: Bucks receivers do struggle in that spot, and if you

659
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 5: get to kind of just double Evans, I think there

660
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 5: could be some dump offs too. And you know we've

661
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 5: seen that in the past with this Bucks offense and

662
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 5: this Lions defense. So like Rashad White to get in

663
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 5: the end zone, whether it's through the air or on

664
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 5: the ground. Here you can parlay t slaugh, a Manra

665
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 5: and Rashad White at twenty five to one on DK

666
00:29:54,880 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 5: all Right. Final game, another slate with two Monday nighters

667
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 5: at Seahawks, Texans coming off the buy Seahawks coming off

668
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 5: the win in Jacksonville, Kerner, who are you looking at

669
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 5: for in anytime touchdown in Texan Seahawks.

670
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with backup tight end Elijah Arroyo here.

671
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 4: You know, I think he's super talented as a second

672
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 4: round pick, He's probably the main reason why they trade

673
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 4: away no offense.

674
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: And you know, A. J.

675
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 4: Barner has been great this year as the team's like

676
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 4: lead tight end. But I don't think people realize just

677
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 4: how close it is between the two right now. And

678
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 4: you know, routes run rate the last three games, Arroyo's

679
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 4: run around on fifty two percent of Sam Darnold dropbacks,

680
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 4: whereas Barner's right around sixty four percent. So Royo has

681
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 4: a really big role for a backup tight end. And

682
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 4: you know, it reminds me a bit of Aaron Hernandez

683
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 4: the talent, not you know, the personality or off field version.

684
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 4: But you know, he's just missed on a couple of

685
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 4: big plays this year. So he's been He's been super close,

686
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 4: really good pass catching tight end, and yeah, Darnold chooses

687
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: not to throw it to JSN, which will be few

688
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 4: and far between. I think Arroyo has a decent shot here.

689
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 4: So at plus five fifty, I'm showing quite a bit

690
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 4: of value on Royo.

691
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: Joe who you like? For a touchdown in Texans and

692
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: the Seahawks.

693
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you can't tell the trend right now, where

694
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: I'm keeping it super simple. I'm just taking the wide

695
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: receiver a one again, but this time Nico Collins at

696
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: plus one forty. The Seahawks defense, they might be getting

697
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 1: some guys back, but even if they're not right now,

698
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 1: they're still a little banged up with Rieke Woollen and

699
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: Witherspoon both nursing injuries, right, So I think Nico Collins

700
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: right now, given the fact that he's just been continuing

701
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: to ascend in this offense, and plus the Seahawks they've

702
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: given up six touchdowns and wide receivers this year bottom

703
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: five and targets and yards. So I think Nico Collins

704
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 1: could catch a long touchdown here and catch them off guard.

705
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: So I like that as one of the legs for

706
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: the parlay.

707
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, And you know, well, and behold with the with

708
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 5: the Seahawks playing well, Sam Darnold's playing well as well,

709
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 5: and so Kerner is. With the tight end two, I'm

710
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,719
Speaker 5: gonna go with Barner here at plus four hundred.

711
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 2: I have value on him as well.

712
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 5: And you're currently kind of alluded to it in the

713
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 5: you know, in the In terms of the routes, these

714
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 5: guys are closer and one of the things they're doing

715
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 5: is taking the receivers off the field in the red zone.

716
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 5: They're playing a lot of two and three tight end sets.

717
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 5: They also use a fullback, So Arroyo leads the team

718
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 5: in red zone routes this year over JSN red zone

719
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 5: snaps over JSN red zone targets he leads the team

720
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 5: and red zone touchdowns, so he's been their top target

721
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 5: in the red zone and that's why JSN probably is

722
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 5: not just you know, having an even more ridiculous season.

723
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: So I like aj barn to score here as well.

724
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 5: Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys get in

725
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 5: with Sam Darnold, you know, just going off this year

726
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 5: six touchdown passovers past two games, eleven on the year.

727
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 2: You can parlay Arroyo.

728
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 5: Collins Barner at DraftKings for eighty to one odds and

729
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 5: as I mentioned, we're gonna add all of these anytime

730
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 5: touchdown parlays to the Parlay Express account in the Action app.

731
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 5: Go follow Parlay Express if you have not already, and

732
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 5: have some fun with us on some of these longer shots.

733
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 5: And while you're looking there, don't forget to sign up

734
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,120
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735
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736
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,680
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737
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738
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 5: Adam is going to do it for our NFL Week

739
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 5: seven Touchdown Show presented by DraftKings. Thanks to Kerner and

740
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 5: Jill for joining me. You can find Kerner on X

741
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 5: at The Underscribed Maker. I'm at Chris Raybund. Also check

742
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 5: out at Playbook four bet slips. So next time, let's

743
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 5: get this money