1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,800
Speaker 1: If you enjoy the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, check out our

2
00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:08,959
Speaker 1: new daily news program, the Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast. It gives

3
00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:12,840
Speaker 1: you the day's top stories with context in just fifteen minutes.

4
00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:15,960
Speaker 1: Look for it in your podcast feed by six a m.

5
00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:20,280
Speaker 1: Eastern every morning. Subscribe on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else

6
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,799
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, and stay tuned for a sample

7
00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 1: of today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak at the very end

8
00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:35,880
Speaker 1: of this podcast. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm

9
00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,960
Speaker 1: Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Abramowitz. Join

10
00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:44,240
Speaker 1: us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics,

11
00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:49,200
Speaker 1: finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple,

12
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 1: Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on

13
00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:58,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.

14
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:04,480
Speaker 1: With Perspective Coachagabden, Senior Research economist at Aberdeen SRI. I'm

15
00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:09,560
Speaker 1: absolutely fascinated by how you linked together the actions of Switzerland,

16
00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,320
Speaker 1: Norway and now the United Kingdom. Suddenly is it a

17
00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,039
Speaker 1: hawkish tone in Europe?

18
00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,680
Speaker 2: I think this is clearly a hawkish tone from the

19
00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,160
Speaker 2: UK and from Norway as well. Clearly this you know

20
00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 2: they've surprived markets Norway this morning, surprise with a fifty.

21
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,720
Speaker 2: There was running into this. There had been quite an

22
00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 2: intense debate. There were question marks about whether there would

23
00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 2: be a twenty five or fifty basis points from the

24
00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,600
Speaker 2: Bank of England, also for the Norway as well, but

25
00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 2: clearly this is a surprise and just running through the

26
00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:42,399
Speaker 2: statement quickly, you know, the reasons are very clear. This

27
00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,240
Speaker 2: is something that has been signaled actually within the speeches

28
00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,560
Speaker 2: for some time. It is the core services inflation which

29
00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,600
Speaker 2: has been incredibly strong. Yesterday's data really did help trigger

30
00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,919
Speaker 2: that debate about whether twenty five or fifty would be necessary.

31
00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:02,200
Speaker 2: This is really a very very strong picture for the UK.

32
00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,360
Speaker 2: If you compare the UK with other developed markets and

33
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 2: look at that wage number, it is really really standing

34
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:14,240
Speaker 2: out with an increased wage pressures there while other countries

35
00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,920
Speaker 2: are starting to see a bit of a stabilization or

36
00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:20,359
Speaker 2: a rollover. If you look at other European countries, if

37
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,800
Speaker 2: you look at the BED or the US, UK really

38
00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,680
Speaker 2: stands out from that core services and wage pressures angle.

39
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,480
Speaker 3: We're watching the pound strengthen in response to this surprise

40
00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,480
Speaker 3: fifty basis point rad hike from the United Kingdom, which

41
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,359
Speaker 3: is a departure from what we saw for the Liz

42
00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:36,960
Speaker 3: Trust era.

43
00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:37,600
Speaker 4: Sree.

44
00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:40,480
Speaker 3: How much is this a positive sign that shows people

45
00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,760
Speaker 3: believe that economies can withstand higher rates to a much

46
00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,800
Speaker 3: greater degree than they thought just even six months ago.

47
00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,160
Speaker 3: And then it really gives confidence that you can fight

48
00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,079
Speaker 3: inflation with higher rates without creating some sort of deep recession.

49
00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,400
Speaker 2: I think that's going to be very challenging, to be

50
00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:58,720
Speaker 2: perfectly honest. I think that you know the fact that

51
00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,480
Speaker 2: we've moved to five percent, markets are pricing in six

52
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:05,080
Speaker 2: percent the last time I looked earlier this morning, This

53
00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:09,680
Speaker 2: this is really triggering a recession. Now. Much policy works

54
00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,359
Speaker 2: with long and variable lacks. That's something we often hear,

55
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 2: and what we're seeing here is that that we are,

56
00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:22,160
Speaker 2: you know, financial conditions have tightened significantly. There is some

57
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,760
Speaker 2: question mark whether the Bank of England will raise as

58
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,960
Speaker 2: high as six percent. There's definitely further to go potentially,

59
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,320
Speaker 2: but six percent will would be triggering not just a recession,

60
00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:36,760
Speaker 2: but a much more severe recession than economists are currently forecasting.

61
00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:37,480
Speaker 5: Now.

62
00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,600
Speaker 2: We do feel that the monetary tightening will trigger recessions

63
00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,520
Speaker 2: in a number of different countries. I think a soft

64
00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:47,040
Speaker 2: landing is very difficult, and unemployment rates were starting to

65
00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,400
Speaker 2: nudge higher. But the tightness in the labor market is

66
00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,320
Speaker 2: very worrying in that the longer the recession is delayed,

67
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,000
Speaker 2: the more severe we could see in terms of rate

68
00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,760
Speaker 2: hikes and recession in a later on next year.

69
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:05,960
Speaker 1: Sure we inform our American audience, which we understand the

70
00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:11,560
Speaker 1: dynamics of a fully employed Ohio or Kansas versus challenging

71
00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:16,120
Speaker 1: city unemployment rates. Perhaps in America the perception we have

72
00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,840
Speaker 1: is London booming, the South blooming. I'm thunderstruck. A double

73
00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:25,240
Speaker 1: digit unemployment in Aberdeen, way up in the northeast of Scotland.

74
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:31,000
Speaker 1: How uneven is this debate on monetary policy across the

75
00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,599
Speaker 1: United Kingdom? How much of the United Kingdom is truly

76
00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:36,400
Speaker 1: in recession right now?

77
00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,200
Speaker 2: I think there is a regional issue and that's something

78
00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:46,000
Speaker 2: that really needs fiscal measures to really address.

79
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 5: Now.

80
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,560
Speaker 2: From a monetary policy perspective, the Bank of England are

81
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:56,000
Speaker 2: limited to what's happening to the aggregate inflation rate? What

82
00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,359
Speaker 2: is their target and how do we get back to

83
00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:03,279
Speaker 2: the target. The or divergences is very difficult to tackle

84
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:11,000
Speaker 2: without fiscal measures and structural policies to target those issues. Now,

85
00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:16,159
Speaker 2: if we think about what's happening in terms of a recession,

86
00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,039
Speaker 2: we're not quite in a recession yet. We've seen some

87
00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:22,080
Speaker 2: weakness in data for Q two. We have a number

88
00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:26,320
Speaker 2: of different drivers. We have strike action in the healthcare services,

89
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,680
Speaker 2: we had an extra bank holiday for the King's coronation.

90
00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,800
Speaker 2: All of these issues will lead to some weakness and activity,

91
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,080
Speaker 2: but that's not necessarily a recession just yet. What the

92
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,480
Speaker 2: Bank of England need is for the economy to call

93
00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,880
Speaker 2: so that some of the imbalances that are driving inflation

94
00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,880
Speaker 2: to ease and you start to see more sustainable deceleration

95
00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,960
Speaker 2: in that core services area, and we're not seeing that yet.

96
00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,960
Speaker 1: Street, thank you so much, just really outstanding street culture.

97
00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 1: Govern did with us with Aberdeen, this truly historic moment

98
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,840
Speaker 1: and gyrating moment for the United King.

99
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:08,719
Speaker 3: And Terry Wiseman, global interest rates and currency strategist at mcquarie,

100
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:10,720
Speaker 3: joining us here. Terry, what do you make of that

101
00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:12,480
Speaker 3: the fact that you can find out what they're going

102
00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:13,800
Speaker 3: to do, but you're not going to figure out what

103
00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:14,640
Speaker 3: the market response is.

104
00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:15,200
Speaker 6: Going to be book.

105
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,359
Speaker 7: I think it takes a long time to rebuild central

106
00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,600
Speaker 7: bank credibility once it's been destroyed. It's not an overnight thing.

107
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,960
Speaker 7: Even with the replacement of the staff and the decision

108
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 7: makers there, It's going to take a while for a

109
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,880
Speaker 7: central bank that has avoided raising interest rates to gain

110
00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,080
Speaker 7: the credibility of the market. The market's going to have,

111
00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,279
Speaker 7: they're going to be doubters, and I think when you

112
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 7: have a situation like this, it's important for the central

113
00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,000
Speaker 7: bank to start to reassert its credibility by doing more

114
00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 7: than the market expects, not less than the market expects.

115
00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,800
Speaker 7: I want to make a case that in those emerging

116
00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,920
Speaker 7: markets that have tried to tackle the inflation story head

117
00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,279
Speaker 7: on and early, you have seen a lot of success.

118
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,160
Speaker 7: Obviously Turkey is not one of them. But look at Brazil.

119
00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,360
Speaker 7: They're on the verge of starting to cut interest rates,

120
00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,240
Speaker 7: perhaps as early as August or September. Same with the Chileans.

121
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 7: These countries were aggressive and hiking rates during the inflation upmove,

122
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 7: and they're going to be early in cutting rates with

123
00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 7: the inflation down move that they're seeing. In these countries.

124
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:09,880
Speaker 7: Turkey is an exception here.

125
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,480
Speaker 3: Okay, it's an exception. However, it's piling on the hawk

126
00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,800
Speaker 3: is hilt that we've heard from central banks around the

127
00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,720
Speaker 3: world today, the Bank of England. We've seen the fluctuation

128
00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 3: of the pound. Has the Bank of England lost credibility

129
00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:21,160
Speaker 3: as well?

130
00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,400
Speaker 7: I think it did, But I think that's exactly the

131
00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,880
Speaker 7: reason why it had to raise by fifty basis points

132
00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,200
Speaker 7: instead of twenty five. Now, granted we did not expect

133
00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,480
Speaker 7: that they were going to raise by fifty The tone

134
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,080
Speaker 7: coming out of the MPC members and their parliamentary testimony

135
00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,880
Speaker 7: a few days ago did not signal a hike of

136
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 7: fifty basis points. But at the same time you had

137
00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,520
Speaker 7: an inflation printstance then, whereby implicitly you can make a

138
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,200
Speaker 7: case that the Bank of England had made a mistake.

139
00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:44,840
Speaker 7: They thought the inflation was going to come in about

140
00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,800
Speaker 7: eight point three eight point two percent, and in fact

141
00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,080
Speaker 7: it came in closer to nine. I think it's because

142
00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,160
Speaker 7: of implicitly, this fifty basis points is an admission of

143
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,400
Speaker 7: the mistake and a way to correct it, and I

144
00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:55,560
Speaker 7: think that's why it happened.

145
00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 1: Alan Schwartz put this team together at ur Stearns, with

146
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:03,200
Speaker 1: your leadership own David Malbek driving the US and global dialogue.

147
00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:06,600
Speaker 1: John writing as well, Terry, You've seen this so many

148
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:12,360
Speaker 1: times before. How do you link we rationalize idiosyncratic stories

149
00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,160
Speaker 1: like Turkey or Argentina back to the central banker of

150
00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,400
Speaker 1: the world, Jerome Powell. How do you link Powell's actions

151
00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: to what we're seeing unraveling here, there and everywhere.

152
00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:24,840
Speaker 7: I think we have to be very cautious if we're

153
00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:26,720
Speaker 7: going to assume that what Jay Powell is going to

154
00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:28,680
Speaker 7: do is going to be overly dependent on what other

155
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,360
Speaker 7: central banks do. And I think even the vice versa

156
00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,280
Speaker 7: case is pertinent as well. The situation in the US

157
00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,600
Speaker 7: is not the situation in the UK, or for that matter,

158
00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,719
Speaker 7: of the situation in the area. There is not as

159
00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,400
Speaker 7: much labor activism and labor strikes in the US. I

160
00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,679
Speaker 7: know that the headlines might be prominent, but we can

161
00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,320
Speaker 7: measure this and the really the peak of labor activism

162
00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,000
Speaker 7: in the US took place last summer. It has since

163
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:51,800
Speaker 7: died down. It makes plenty of sense. We've seen more

164
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 7: layoff announcements in the US. The UK and Europe are

165
00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,080
Speaker 7: very different. We're seeing a lot of labor activism now

166
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,200
Speaker 7: we're seeing a lot of concessions by the price its

167
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,760
Speaker 7: secretary governments of these higher wage demands coming out of

168
00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,560
Speaker 7: the workers, and as a result, the UK and Europe

169
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:09,560
Speaker 7: are delayed with regard to their ability to fight inflation

170
00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 7: and bring it down. If you look at some leading

171
00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,400
Speaker 7: indicators of inflation in the US, they are clearly coming

172
00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,959
Speaker 7: down and much faster than they are in Europe. The PPIs,

173
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,840
Speaker 7: for example, the survey based indexes that we're getting from

174
00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:27,320
Speaker 7: the from the Ism Services Survey, the Atlanta Fed's Flexible

175
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,840
Speaker 7: Price Index, they're all pointing downward for inflation in the US.

176
00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:31,600
Speaker 1: I have a.

177
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,760
Speaker 7: Feeling and by the way, Powell even hinted at this

178
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,920
Speaker 7: in his testimony. Yes, Jay, I have a feeling that

179
00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 7: the back half of the year you're going to finally

180
00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,120
Speaker 7: see that so called stickiness that we're seeing the PCE

181
00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 7: inflation Index and the CPI inflation Index start to recede

182
00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,400
Speaker 7: and come down. And by the way, I think the

183
00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:51,679
Speaker 7: market understands that, and that's why the dollar has resumed

184
00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,000
Speaker 7: being weak again, because it sees the FED coming to

185
00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,320
Speaker 7: an end with its rate hikes. It doesn't see that

186
00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 7: yet in Europe or the UK.

187
00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,480
Speaker 1: Whether they're going to the midyear reviews of JP market publishing.

188
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,959
Speaker 1: There's this morning and they call our disinflation paths and

189
00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,679
Speaker 1: compete getting complete. But at Macquarie, one of your great

190
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 1: studies has to be the greater number of lesser countries

191
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,080
Speaker 1: really struggling. As you just mentioned, is the IMF going

192
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 1: to come to the rescue here or is the IMF

193
00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,280
Speaker 1: lost credibility as we talk about the Bank of England

194
00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:24,360
Speaker 1: challenge by credibility.

195
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,480
Speaker 7: Well, if you mean the IMF coming to the rescue

196
00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:28,800
Speaker 7: with regard to the debt load in the emerging.

197
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,960
Speaker 1: Market Argentina Peso two fifty one.

198
00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,480
Speaker 7: Black market five, yeah, I don't think that you're going

199
00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,400
Speaker 7: to see that happen unless these countries adopt a much

200
00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,720
Speaker 7: more market friendly and much more Washington consensus based approach

201
00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,640
Speaker 7: to the policy agenda. The IMF is not going to

202
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,480
Speaker 7: bail out countries that have made a succession of mistakes

203
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,439
Speaker 7: in their political economy and their policy agenda over the

204
00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,240
Speaker 7: last few years. It will bail out those countries that

205
00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 7: it can impose on an agreeable basis, a new plan

206
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,439
Speaker 7: of action with regard to fiscal responsibility and monetary policy responsibility.

207
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,959
Speaker 3: Go back to something you were talking about that there

208
00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,040
Speaker 3: does seem to be a real difference between the inflation

209
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,000
Speaker 3: dynamic in the US and the inflation dynamic in Europe,

210
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,439
Speaker 3: And you were talking about the labor dynamic in particular.

211
00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 3: Right now, what we're seeing are a number of central

212
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,280
Speaker 3: banks that paused or tried to and now are going

213
00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 3: back and hiking rates again. This is exactly what people

214
00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,640
Speaker 3: do not want to see. What gives you confidence that

215
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,720
Speaker 3: the US is not going to be in the exact

216
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,880
Speaker 3: same position with a stickier kind of inflation, especially driven

217
00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,160
Speaker 3: by areas like the housing market that have shown incredible

218
00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:32,240
Speaker 3: resilience to higher rates.

219
00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,520
Speaker 7: Yeah, this is These are all great questions. Let me

220
00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,120
Speaker 7: start by saying that the way that the PEC price

221
00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,400
Speaker 7: in dex is computed and are calculated, and the way

222
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 7: that the CPI and Inflation Index is computed has inherent

223
00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,720
Speaker 7: stickiness in it. About forty to fifty percent of all

224
00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,560
Speaker 7: the prices in that basket are imputed. So to get

225
00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,320
Speaker 7: a really good sense of what flexible prices are doing,

226
00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,560
Speaker 7: what prices are doing that are that you can actually

227
00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,760
Speaker 7: observe in the marketplace, you have to look at narrower.

228
00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:02,480
Speaker 7: You have to look at only the basket of things

229
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,400
Speaker 7: for which we can observe prices, and when we do that,

230
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,640
Speaker 7: we see a lot more disinflation already. Just compare for

231
00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:15,280
Speaker 7: example that Atlanta FED index. The flexible basket versus the

232
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,440
Speaker 7: sticky basket has seen a huge divergence in the last

233
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:19,000
Speaker 7: few months.

234
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:22,680
Speaker 3: What is the potential shock to longer term rates if

235
00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,280
Speaker 3: this is somehow reversed, If somehow people are getting it wrong,

236
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 3: and inflation does remain stickier in the US and follows

237
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:30,600
Speaker 3: the European story.

238
00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:32,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, so if that's going to be the case, you're

239
00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:34,400
Speaker 7: going to see the back end of the yield curve

240
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,439
Speaker 7: go up a little bit in the US. At the

241
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,280
Speaker 7: same time, it doesn't mean that the curve will get

242
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:42,040
Speaker 7: less inverted, because we could see short term rates go

243
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,280
Speaker 7: up as well, I should say, however, but to the

244
00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 7: extent that we're going to see longer term rates go up,

245
00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:49,600
Speaker 7: it's going to be because inflation break evens go up.

246
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,400
Speaker 7: It's going to because that inflation expectation goes up, not

247
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,000
Speaker 7: because real rates go up. But yeah, that would be

248
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,160
Speaker 7: effectively the result inflation. Long term inflation expectations goes up,

249
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,040
Speaker 7: inflation break even go up, and that drags higher the

250
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:03,280
Speaker 7: ten year yield in the US.

251
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,280
Speaker 1: We're linking monetary policy in here into the interests of

252
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 1: Chairman of Powell. And you mentioned as we were going

253
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,360
Speaker 1: on air here that you had the immense privilege seeing

254
00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 1: Jerry Garcia. I can't believe it's been twenty seven years

255
00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,280
Speaker 1: since he died. That's the first shock. But you saw

256
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,440
Speaker 1: the dead when the dead was the dead and not

257
00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:24,560
Speaker 1: the dead in company. Now into parlay off this, I'm

258
00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,280
Speaker 1: going to go to what a long strange inflation this

259
00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:31,439
Speaker 1: has been? What does a pandemic disinflation look like? This

260
00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,480
Speaker 1: is an original inflation, isn't It's.

261
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,559
Speaker 7: Original only in so far as the Federal Reserve and

262
00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,120
Speaker 7: a lot of central banks made the mistake of printing

263
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 7: too much money at a time when they thought that

264
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:43,920
Speaker 7: the pandemic would not end, or at least they took

265
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:45,920
Speaker 7: the risk management view that there's a possibility that the

266
00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 7: pandemic doesn't end, and therefore they aired on the side

267
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,760
Speaker 7: of inflation of liquidity balances in the economy. The important

268
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:53,720
Speaker 7: thing to keep in mind is that those impulses that

269
00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 7: created the inflation in twenty twenty one and early twenty

270
00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 7: twenty two are more or less over and done with.

271
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,960
Speaker 7: With the possible exception of wage pressures in Europe. If

272
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 7: you look at real monetary balances in the US, because

273
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,880
Speaker 7: of inflation and because of QT, they are back to

274
00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,400
Speaker 7: trend level. They went up about fifteen to twenty percent

275
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,959
Speaker 7: above the trend and they've come down twenty fifteen or

276
00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 7: twenty percent back to the trend. That's a very strong indication,

277
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 7: a very strong suggestion that the inflationary impulse that the

278
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:24,040
Speaker 7: central banks had created is no longer in play, it's

279
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 7: no longer manifest.

280
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,440
Speaker 1: The longest dead concert, Terry was at the concert. He

281
00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 1: stood for six hours, the longest dead concert ever, six hours.

282
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:36,280
Speaker 1: It's on the edge of Springsteen.

283
00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have epic concerts, and evidently they used to

284
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,800
Speaker 3: have even more epic concerts as older was.

285
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,320
Speaker 1: Terry Wiseman, Thank you so much. Pleasure today, just perfect

286
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,640
Speaker 1: time to have you in here. Well, the challenges that

287
00:14:49,680 --> 00:15:02,840
Speaker 1: we see in Turkey today. I turned to Michael gab And,

288
00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:07,000
Speaker 1: head of Economics, Bank of America's Securities. Michael, my head's spinning.

289
00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,040
Speaker 1: There's so many trends going on here, and is Mike

290
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:14,280
Speaker 1: perfectly encapsulated. The ambiguities of the moment are immense. What

291
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:18,880
Speaker 1: is the thing at the margin you're studying subject to

292
00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 1: change about American economics. What's the part of the story

293
00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 1: that interests you.

294
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,920
Speaker 8: I think that there's two parts. One is what Lisa mentioned,

295
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,760
Speaker 8: how quickly can inflation come down even an environment where

296
00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:37,720
Speaker 8: the labor market is extremely tight? For Powell's words, so

297
00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,280
Speaker 8: can we get further diminishment in goods prices, used, car

298
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 8: prices shelter inflation? Same conversation we've been talking about for

299
00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,520
Speaker 8: some time. But I think the mirror side of that coin,

300
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,320
Speaker 8: which Powell emphasized yesterday and we and others have been

301
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:54,000
Speaker 8: picking up on more, what is the big miss really

302
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,520
Speaker 8: this year has not come on inflation. It's come in

303
00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 8: the labor market, where the labor force has rebounded dreamly

304
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:05,240
Speaker 8: rapidly this year. Last year, the shortfall in the labor

305
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,080
Speaker 8: force from kind of pre COVID projections was as high

306
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 8: as two million in not falling. By our estimate, its

307
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 8: down to about four hundred thousand. Now that means the

308
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 8: probability of a softer landing or mild recession is higher,

309
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:21,560
Speaker 8: and the Fed doesn't have to lean on the labor

310
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 8: market as much perhaps to bring inflation down. So it's

311
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 8: that labor force rebound. From my perspective, that puts the

312
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 8: FED in a very different spot today than it was

313
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 8: thinking it was in maybe six to nine months ago.

314
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 3: Michael, How does FED Chair J Powell draw this distinction

315
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,840
Speaker 3: at a time when his compatriots over across the Atlantic

316
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 3: are moving in the opposite direction and are facing resurgent

317
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 3: inflation exactly what they didn't want to see in a

318
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 3: Burns like kind of the situation.

319
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 1: I think this is.

320
00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 8: Where one time you fall back on the US is

321
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 8: a large, relatively closed economy, were less affected by global

322
00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 8: trends than is the case elsewhere, and we'll make the

323
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 8: decisions on our policy outlook based on where the domestic

324
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 8: economy is. The upside risk on inflation in the US

325
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,680
Speaker 8: will come out of US labor markets and whether there's

326
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,119
Speaker 8: persistent tightness in the labor market that keeps services inflation elevated.

327
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 8: So I think you just kind of fall back on

328
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 8: the historical tendencies of the US to be much more

329
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,880
Speaker 8: domestically focused, services driven, and therefore we're going to set

330
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,960
Speaker 8: our policy based on that evolution.

331
00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 3: The other aspect of the conversation is the fiscal side

332
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 3: versus the monetary policy side, and people are talking a

333
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,359
Speaker 3: lot about the fiscal impulse of having to repay student

334
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,760
Speaker 3: loans again starting in October. We've been debating this for

335
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 3: a couple of days and trying to figure out whether

336
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 3: this is an overplayed risk or an underplayed risk. Do

337
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,160
Speaker 3: you think that the reinstatement of having to pay back

338
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 3: your student debt after three years of a moratorium is

339
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,359
Speaker 3: going to have a material impact on both growth and

340
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 3: inflation in the United States later this year.

341
00:17:58,000 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 1: I think we.

342
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 8: Would come down on the side that from a macro perspective,

343
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 8: it's unlikely to have a material effect. It should probably

344
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 8: dent the strength of spending in say September or October,

345
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:13,359
Speaker 8: but the magnitude of interest payments is maybe about two

346
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,200
Speaker 8: tenths of one percent of personal income. If you fold

347
00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 8: in principal payments, that's closer to maybe half of one percent.

348
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,879
Speaker 8: So from the macro perspective, we doubt it has a

349
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 8: material impact, although certainly at the individual level it may

350
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 8: affect behavior quite a lot. It just doesn't We don't

351
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 8: think it adds up to something macro systemic, if you will,

352
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,200
Speaker 8: So it's probably more about credit markets and the behavior

353
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 8: of those as opposed to the macroeconomy.

354
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 1: More broadly, what is a Bank of America? C Michael

355
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 1: Gabin in your immense ability to tap knowledge on the

356
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,359
Speaker 1: American consumer, and I want to get granually here through

357
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:56,160
Speaker 1: the month of June. Is any indication of a slowdown

358
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 1: of the American consumer?

359
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, there is, Tom, there is our BAA card data

360
00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,919
Speaker 8: would suggest that consumer spending continues to slow, but at

361
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,719
Speaker 8: a moderate pace. And when we dig into those details,

362
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 8: we do find that some of the revenge spending categories

363
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,640
Speaker 8: are starting to show softness, so airlines and lodging, which

364
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 8: were really strong last year, those things have started to moderate,

365
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,080
Speaker 8: but spending on entertainment and recreation that is still strong.

366
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,920
Speaker 8: It maps into what we're seeing in the labor market,

367
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 8: where two thirds of your gains and private sector employment

368
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,399
Speaker 8: are still coming from areas like leisure and hospitality and

369
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,640
Speaker 8: education and health. So there's still some catch up spending

370
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 8: leading probably to follow through and hiring. But on the margin,

371
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 8: it does suggest that spending is moderating. It's about flat

372
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 8: on a year on year basis, and in some categories

373
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 8: moving slightly negative.

374
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 3: Michael, I have to say I'm hearing all of the

375
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 3: noise behind you, and I'm thinking to myself, a lot

376
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 3: of people are back in the office, and how different

377
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,159
Speaker 3: this is than what we have heard for so many years.

378
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 3: Is that your experience that this has actually been this

379
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 3: sort of sea change of reversion and the whole work

380
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 3: from home trend has kind of died out.

381
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 8: I mean, I think that's very industry specific and probably

382
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 8: job requirements specific, where you know, I'm in at least

383
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 8: four days a week sales and trading here is in

384
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 8: five days a week. So certain roles are definitely back

385
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 8: in the office. I see it on my regular commute

386
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:33,479
Speaker 8: as well. So and certainly Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday or sorry, Tuesday,

387
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 8: Wednesday and Thursday are your big peak days. So yeah,

388
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 8: there's kind of three out of the five days it's

389
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 8: feeling quote normal, and then it kind of tapers off.

390
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 1: Week goes on, you know, Friday at Bank of America,

391
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 1: moinning hands out at the summer place, gaping's in with

392
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:53,359
Speaker 1: shorts and flip flops. That's a celebration, like scary thought,

393
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 1: Michael Gap and thank you so much as Bank of America.

394
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: Everyone I talked to there is only one destination, and

395
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 1: it is Paris. It is stunning anecdotally to see the

396
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: number of people migrating to France. Leading the way is

397
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 1: Francine Lacroix from London at an important conference of mister

398
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 1: mccroum on climate and on the funding for poorer nations.

399
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 1: She is in conversation with a tour director for Paris.

400
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: He's on the bus telling us about the highlights Bruno

401
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 1: La Mayer, tour director this summer.

402
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 9: Francine, Tom, you couldn't be more right. Actually, I have

403
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 9: to say everyone's here in Paris, not only because we

404
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 9: have thirty heads of state here at talking about finance

405
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 9: and sustainability and how to tackle poverty, which is really

406
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 9: spearheaded by the President of France, but also there was

407
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 9: fashion Week, and it does seem that every American actually

408
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 9: in Europe has decided to descend on Paris. So congratulations

409
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,439
Speaker 9: first of all creating so much buzz, not only around

410
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 9: so important tackles, but actually Paris is bussing a little

411
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 9: bit ready today, but you know it's back with vengeance.

412
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 10: What are you trying to achieve at this conference?

413
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 9: So we're talking about money transfer, debt, forgiveness or keeping

414
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 9: the momentum to really try and do a new Bretton

415
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 9: Woods Agreement.

416
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 6: I think the key purpose is to keep the momentum

417
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 6: and to have a new financial architecture for the post

418
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 6: countries of the world with pleasant placor. We don't want

419
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 6: to post countries in the world to be confronted to

420
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 6: a choice between fighting against extreme poverty and fighting against

421
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 6: climate change. We want to provide all the financial means

422
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 6: for those countries to be efficient in the fight against

423
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 6: poverty and in the fight against climate change. This is

424
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 6: the key purpose of this summit, and I think that

425
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 6: the key point to key purpose would be to define

426
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 6: a new financial architecture for the twenty first century.

427
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 9: Minister, are you frustrated that it's taking this much time?

428
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 9: I know the Chinese premiers here, which is a great

429
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 9: coup because we have an actually seeing US officials and

430
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 9: Chinese officials at this high level in a room together

431
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 9: talking about these issues.

432
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 10: But you've tried to push ours voting rights on the ISLM.

433
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 10: How's that going.

434
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 6: Big things need a long time, So I'm not frustrated.

435
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 6: I think that we are totally totally determined with spent

436
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 6: PACN to have a final positive outcome for this summit.

437
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 6: I think that we are moving on the right direction.

438
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 6: As far as debt restructuring is concerned, we want to

439
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,959
Speaker 6: move faster, we want to move quicker. I think that

440
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 6: we could have a positive outcome as far as the

441
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 6: depth of Zombia and Skidonka is concerned. It is really

442
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 6: quite good news to have the Chinese Prime Minister here

443
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 6: in Paris today talking with all the head of states,

444
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 6: talking with the secrifgiality, and this is really, I think

445
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 6: a very positive outcome. We also have the new President

446
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 6: of the World Bank, and we are defining a new

447
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 6: role for the multi role development banks, providing more money

448
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 6: for the powerst country. So really things are moving in

449
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 6: the right direction and the final outcome must be positive.

450
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 9: I mean, I imagine that in the corridor, as they

451
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 9: talk about trade.

452
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 10: They talk about the fact that Sexuary Blinkoling was.

453
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 9: In China, the fact that we have present with a

454
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 9: rap roschma with the US.

455
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 10: What does this mean for global works?

456
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 6: I think it's good news because we all want to

457
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 6: improve the relationship between the three continents between China, the US, Europe.

458
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 6: We are totally determined to defend on economic interests in Europe.

459
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 6: You know that the new Participle, which is now at

460
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 6: the core of the European future has been defined by

461
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 6: prison Pacon and it is sovereignty. Sovereignty means that we

462
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 6: want to defend or technological assets or economic interests while

463
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 6: talking with China, but being aware that there is a

464
00:24:55,359 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 6: necessity to really have all the necessary tools to defend

465
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 6: or academic.

466
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 9: Indusrty menster given a high inflation, interest rates rising, I

467
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 9: mean the economy is extremely complex.

468
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 10: Do we need to attract in Europe and friends, specifically

469
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 10: more Chinese investments?

470
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 6: Yes, we are open to Chinese investments in France. We

471
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 6: had yesterday a very foot full discussion between Prime Minister

472
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 6: of the Chinese Republic and the key CEOs of the

473
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 6: French economy, and we made very clear that there is

474
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 6: any willingness of the Chinese government to invest more in

475
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 6: France and more in Europe, for instance on the evs,

476
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 6: on the electric batteries. We are welcoming those investments.

477
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 9: We have a lot of US viewers at this time

478
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 9: in the day, would they worry that actually that investment

479
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 9: that could have gone to the US is going elsewhere

480
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 9: in putting Europe?

481
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 6: Oh, I think that you know, climate change means a

482
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 6: lot of new investments in green hydrogen, in batteries, in

483
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 6: evs and so on, sortar panels. So there is place

484
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 6: for everybody. We should just be very cautious in the

485
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 6: way we are defending our technological assets and or technologies

486
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 6: or key technologies. But anyway to fight against climate change,

487
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 6: we will pave the way for new investments and new innovations.

488
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 6: And this is a really good thing that we have

489
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 6: foot foot talks and constructive talks between the US, the

490
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 6: EU and China.

491
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 9: A ministry, how difficult is it to be in charge

492
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 9: of finances of a country at a time where infest

493
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 9: rates are going up. Inflation of course is going up,

494
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 9: which leads higher interest rates. But at the same time

495
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 9: we need to do economies because of huge deficits across

496
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 9: the world.

497
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 6: To kind of fine tuning, I would say, which means

498
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 6: that work. Yeah, no, just to fine tuning, which means

499
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 6: that the key priority is to get rid of inflation

500
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 6: and to bring the prices down. This is to keep

501
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 6: priority for the household. Of course, then you have to

502
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 6: take into account the necessity to come back to some

503
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 6: public finances. I just announced last Monday that we would

504
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 6: cut in public expenses by ten billion euros at least

505
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 6: for next twenty twenty four. So this means that we

506
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 6: are totally determined to come back to some public finances

507
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 6: and to stick to the path of reforms. Who just

508
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:25,479
Speaker 6: introduced two key reforms reform the level market and of

509
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 6: course the pension reform.

510
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 9: But given what we heard from the FED and other

511
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 9: central banks, do you not worry that interest rate hikes

512
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 9: will be so severe that they will almost have to

513
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 9: crush acartomies at least put the mineral session to achieve

514
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 9: their inflation target.

515
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 6: That's why it's so important to keep a high level

516
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 6: of investments and a high level of innovation. If you

517
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 6: want to avoid recession, you have to find the right

518
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 6: balance between coming back to some public finances and keeping

519
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 6: a high level of investments in the fight against climate

520
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 6: change and of course in defense. Since we have walked

521
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 6: back on the European sid this is this balance that

522
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 6: we want to preserve. You know that we are in

523
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 6: the process of defining the new rules for the Upan countries,

524
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 6: the Stability and Growth Pact. We want those new rules

525
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 6: to keep the right balance between investments and some public financials.

526
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 10: Do they need to be more flexible?

527
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 6: We need flexibility of course we need the rules, we

528
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 6: need all the countries to abide by the rules. But

529
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 6: let's be very clear, the key factor for the twenty

530
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 6: first century for Europe is to keep a high level

531
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 6: of investments in innovation.

532
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 9: Minister, thank you so much, as always for joining us.

533
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 9: Was by the French Finance ministrant. With that time, I'm

534
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 9: going to hand it back to you New York and we.

535
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 10: Miss you in Paris.

536
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: Friends, see, thanks so much. We wish we were here,

537
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: Lisa and I. John's on an Italian island somewhere. We

538
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: don't care about what he thinks right now. But for instance, Qua,

539
00:28:48,160 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: thank you so much. The Prime Minister of Ukraine is

540
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: a most interesting guy, with many different public duties over

541
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: the years, but all working around trade and the economy

542
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: of a pre war and at present war in Ukraine.

543
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: In London, armor Ria today in conversation with Dennis Shmihaal.

544
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 4: Tom good morning, and we are joined by Ukraine's Prime Minister,

545
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 4: mister Michell.

546
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 11: Thank you so much for being with us.

547
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: We've seen each other in many conferences like this multiple times, and.

548
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 11: I know how difficult it is for you to get here.

549
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: Is this trained from Ukraine, very big country over to

550
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 4: Poland and then a lot of security concerns about your staff,

551
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,959
Speaker 4: your team, yourself. So we appreciate your time. And one

552
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,719
Speaker 4: of the things that you always tell me is when

553
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 4: I come to a recovery conference like this, and there's

554
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 4: been many, I do feel or all I say we

555
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 4: stand with Ukraine and they mean it.

556
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 11: But a war is lung. It's expensive. Did you feel

557
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 11: any fatigue in this run around?

558
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for invitation. It's a pleasure to

559
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 5: be here with you.

560
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: And morning.

561
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 12: Oh.

562
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 5: It's second conference for Ukrainian recovery. First one was sold

563
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 5: in Switzerland one year ago. Today we are in London.

564
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 5: Sixty two countries and international organizations are here. Hundreds of

565
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 5: businesses are here, international businesses. We feel tremendous support from

566
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 5: all of our partners. We feel financial support, sunctional military support,

567
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 5: humanitarian support. Results of this conference have a long term consequences.

568
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 5: We have many promises, We have many concrete agreements, declarations, memorandums.

569
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 5: We have financial support. We have middle term program for

570
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 5: Ukrainian support from European Commission, from European Union for fifty

571
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 5: billion euro for the next four years. We have tremendous

572
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 5: support from United Kingdom. We have very good meetings with

573
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 5: our partners and with United States Secretary of State. We

574
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 5: have very good conversations, negociations and very good results.

575
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 4: And yet, well all this is happening, we know that

576
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 4: back home the fighting continues on the counter offensive is going.

577
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 11: And I do want to make something very clear.

578
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 4: Was there at any point in this conference did you

579
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 4: get any hint that anyone suggested the funding will depend on.

580
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 11: The counter offensive?

581
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 5: Absolutely? No.

582
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 11: If it's successful, more money. If it's not, it would

583
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 11: be less. No one told you that we.

584
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 5: Have very very sustainable, very strong and very unwavering support

585
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 5: from our partners. There is no dependence from results on

586
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 5: the battlefield.

587
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 11: They're entirely different.

588
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 5: Absolutely, we have very strong messages, especially on that conference.

589
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 5: Ukraine is future member of EU. Ukraine will be supported

590
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 5: by partners. Russia must pay because of these consequences of

591
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 5: this war, of terrible war and aggression from Russia side.

592
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 5: So these messages from partners are very supportive, are very promising,

593
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 5: and now we continue our contrafensive. This is not easy walk.

594
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 5: This is not Hollywood movie. As our president wild Merzelenski

595
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 5: said yesterday.

596
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 4: Yesterday he seemed a little bit exasperated. This is not

597
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 4: a movie. It takes time, it tastes patience. Is that

598
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 4: what you feel at times too? This is not Hollywood,

599
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: it's it's it's real people.

600
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 11: And it's lives.

601
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 5: Yes, and every life is very important for us. And

602
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 5: we are not Russia. We are not Soviet style army

603
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 5: when they bring their lives to the fire of the war.

604
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 5: So we are very careful, we are very smart. We

605
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 5: use NATO standards in this war because we are fighting

606
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 5: according to NATO standards. We are fighting for weaponry of

607
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 5: NATO countries and contravansive. It's multiple operations, it's offensive, it's

608
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 5: defensive operations, it's tactical pauses. So it will take time.

609
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 5: But we have first.

610
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 4: Results purely to make an assessment, that's what you say.

611
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 5: We have first results of our contrafensive. Eight villages are liberated,

612
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 5: more then one one hundred thirteen square kilometers is liberated.

613
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 5: Seven kilometers go into the head from the front line.

614
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,959
Speaker 5: So it's very important results for the two weeks and

615
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 5: we will continue.

616
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 4: And so of course now you have your Bloomber TV.

617
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 4: Of course you have the investment community that's watching the center.

618
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 4: But we also have a lot of taxpayers, some of

619
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 4: whom are very sympathetic to Ukraine too, but they say

620
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 4: we want to see vally for money, but also this

621
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 4: idea of corruption at times, I remember President Selenski said,

622
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 4: my government will crush the oligarchs.

623
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 11: We will be a before and after moment in Ukraine.

624
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: Is that the moment or the message that you're sending

625
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 4: to people thinks are changing in Ukraine?

626
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 5: Ukraine is changing absolutely, President, our government we have zero

627
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 5: tolerance to the corruption.

628
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 4: You will ditch people that are corrupted if you find anyone.

629
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 5: We finished formation and creation of our anti corruptional infrastructure

630
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 5: together with our partners. We are absolutely transparent, accountable and opened.

631
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 5: And this anti coruptional infrastructure is work now and we

632
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 5: demonstrate to all the world that we are fighting with

633
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 5: a corruption country and we will have results. We continue

634
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 5: our reforms, we continue digitalization. We take off a state

635
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 5: and public services from persons and go to the digital space.

636
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 5: And this is very very effective way to fight corruption.

637
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 5: Just don't let people to be corrupted because digitalization brings

638
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 5: new technologies and new possibilities.

639
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,320
Speaker 4: And can I ask you your meeting with mister Blinkn,

640
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 4: the US Secretary of State. He was here, and I

641
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 4: know you had a one to one meeting. There's an

642
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 4: election coming up in the United States.

643
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 11: Is that something that worries here? Digital in the United

644
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 11: States is in for the long haul. This is about

645
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 11: values for the US.

646
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 5: United States is very important partner, is the biggest supporter

647
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 5: for Ukraine. So we discussed all the important issues. We

648
00:34:55,800 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 5: discussed first of all financial support, and mister Blinken unknownst

649
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 5: the next one point three billion dollars support financial support

650
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 5: for Ukraine, for our reforms, for our recovery, for our

651
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 5: energy sector. It's very important for us. We also discuss

652
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 5: all other issues very important in sense of development of

653
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 5: my country despite the war, demining activity, sanctions against Russia,

654
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 5: development of energy sector in Ukraine and other many other

655
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 5: very important issues.

656
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 11: So the middle and well.

657
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 4: And I also wonder, however, with the average American and

658
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 4: maybe watching that's true and it's thinking, but Ukraine is

659
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 4: a far way off. I don't know anything about this country.

660
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 4: What's going on with my money? What's your message?

661
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 11: What would you say?

662
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 5: Just because what First of all, we are very grateful

663
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 5: to American people, to United Kingdom people, to all our

664
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 5: partners who support US military financially. By sanctions. It's crucially

665
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,919
Speaker 5: important because we are fighting not only for our land,

666
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 5: for our families, for our people, are fighting for democratic

667
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 5: and for civilized values. It's crucial and because of this,

668
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 5: all democratic world support Ukraine. Why because this is about

669
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 5: global security system and it's very important. Don't let any

670
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 5: aggressor to have a free thinking about future possible aggression.

671
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 4: If Russia were to win this as a hypothetical, then

672
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 4: would you say it would be the moral collapse of

673
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 4: the West. If will let that happen, it would be

674
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 4: the moral collapse of the West.

675
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 11: I think that you don't even contemplate Russia winning.

676
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 5: It's impossible. It's impossible, and I think that I'm sure

677
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 5: that civilized world will not let Russia win this war

678
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 5: because it's about existential things, it's about the world security system.

679
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 5: And from my side, I should say that Ukrainian have

680
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 5: no intention, no imagination that we may lose this war

681
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 5: because it's about our existence. War with war, crimes with

682
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 5: war against humanity, was henocide against Ukrainian nations. So if

683
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 5: Russia will win this war, it will mean that Ukraine

684
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 5: and Ukrainian nation is not exist anymore. So from our side,

685
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 5: we understand that we will liberate our country and the

686
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 5: borders as on the nineteen ninety one, and.

687
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 11: It is existential.

688
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 4: That's a word I heard the most last time I

689
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 4: was in Ukraine, that this was existential for the country now.

690
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 4: And I want to ask you, however, another existential question

691
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 4: perhaps is the NATO summit. You said in this conference,

692
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 4: for a strong economy, you need a strong country and

693
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 4: that means security. What's going to happen in that meeting?

694
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 4: Presidence Selenski said, my people have shed blood for a

695
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 4: timeline now to NATO. What's going to happen in a

696
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 4: month time?

697
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 11: In that meeting?

698
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 5: I may repeat, we are fighting according to NATO standards.

699
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,280
Speaker 5: We are fighting by weaponry of NATO.

700
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 11: Why is it so scary for some?

701
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 5: In fact, our army is NATO army right now. We

702
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 5: are fighting for the same principles for which NATO was created.

703
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 5: So I'm sure that membership of Ukraine in NATO it

704
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 5: will be a very win win situation, very mutually beneficial situations.

705
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 5: So we are waiting so that this summit in Wsinos

706
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 5: will be very strong summit and we will hear very

707
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 5: concrete and very strong messages about Ukrainian membership and NATO,

708
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 5: and we hope that partners will do this. We have

709
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 5: twenty twenty allies which are supporting, which are supporting Ukraine,

710
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:35,840
Speaker 5: which signed declarations. We discussed with some skeptical allies, but

711
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 5: we have sure inside of our hearts that everything will

712
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 5: be going.

713
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 11: And very briefly.

714
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 4: Sometimes you hear people say just sit down and talk

715
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 4: to Vladimir Putting. When you hear the name Latimir Pudding

716
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 4: doesn't trigger anything, and you really just go this is

717
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 4: in the past.

718
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 11: I'm not interested in Latimir Pudding.

719
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 5: Putting is the biggest crimer of our times, of twenty

720
00:38:55,640 --> 00:39:00,720
Speaker 5: first century. We don't believe that he may do something

721
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 5: to bring peace in Ukraine. So only one his step

722
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 5: to stop shot and take off Russian army from Ukrainian

723
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 5: territory may stop this war and bring peace back on

724
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 5: the European continent. But he has this possibility since to

725
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 5: one hundred and fourteen. So when the stands of this

726
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:21,959
Speaker 5: now impossible, and.

727
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 11: For you you say it's now impossible, it's too late.

728
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 11: Prime Minister. Thank you so much, appreciate it.

729
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 4: Always very good to see you in Bloomberg, and thank

730
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 4: you for being here with us in London.

731
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 5: Thanks, Thank you so much.

732
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: Tom Maria today, Thank you so much for a piercing conversation,

733
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: ending with comments of Ukraine. I'm a leader of Russia.

734
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and

735
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday

736
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

737
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

738
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm

739
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and

740
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Now.

741
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 1: Stay tuned for today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. It's your

742
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:24,280
Speaker 1: daily news podcast, delivering today's top stories to your podcast

743
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: feed by six am Eastern. It's all the news you

744
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 1: need in just fifteen minutes. The Bloomberg Daybreak podcast. It

745
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: starts right now.

746
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 12: From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

747
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 12: Break for Thursday, June twenty second.

748
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 13: Coming up today, Crouz race to find the missing sub

749
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 13: near the Titanic before the air runs out.

750
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 12: The US and India strength and military and economic ties.

751
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 14: Rates in focus.

752
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 13: As Jay Powell appears before Congress again and the Bank

753
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 13: of England makes a policy.

754
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 12: Decision, I mean bring you an exclusive interview with the

755
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 12: CEO of Deutsche Bank.

756
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 15: New York Mayor Adams announced his new guidelines after lithium

757
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 15: ion battery fires, plus a New York City board votes

758
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 15: for increases in rent stabilized apartments. I'm Michael Barr.

759
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 14: More ahead, I'm.

760
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 16: John Stanish, Edwards Swartz, the Yankees in three home runs

761
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 16: and a widower see Adam. The Mets lost in Houston.

762
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 16: The NBA Draft takes place tonight in Brooklyn.

763
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 17: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

764
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 17: news you need to start your day in just one

765
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 17: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg

766
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,959
Speaker 17: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

767
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 13: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

768
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 12: And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

769
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 13: First, we want to keep you updated on the search

770
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 13: for that missing submersible near the Titanic. Crews from around

771
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 13: the world are zeroing in on underwater noises detected over

772
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 13: the past two days. Former Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen says,

773
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 13: filtering out the signal from the noise is a tough task.

774
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: There's animal life, there are other noises that are out

775
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: there. There are ships operating.

776
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 17: In the area, so the question is to localize it

777
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:02,240
Speaker 17: and try and understand.

778
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 1: What it is.

779
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 13: Former Coast Guard command on Thad Allen says, the situation

780
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 13: is growing more desperate for the five people on board

781
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,959
Speaker 13: the Titan. The vessel left Sunday with about ninety six

782
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 13: hours of air. At this point, they may have just

783
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 13: a couple of hours left.

784
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 12: Well, Nathan, we turn to geopolitics now. In an important

785
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 12: moment in the US relationship with India, President Biden is

786
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 12: hosting India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his first ever

787
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 12: stayed visit to the White House. Senior US officials say

788
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 12: the two leaders will announce a series of defense and

789
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 12: commercial deals aimed at improving military and economic ties. They'll

790
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 12: also hold a brief adjoint news conference, a rare toy

791
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 12: for the Indian leader, before Mody addresses Congress this afternoon.

792
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 13: Meantime, in Florida, Karen, the federal government's case against Donald

793
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 13: Trump is moving forward. Prosecutors are now turning over evidence

794
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,760
Speaker 13: to the former president's legal team. Amy Morris has details

795
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 13: from our Bloomberg ninety nine to one newsroom in Washington.

796
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 18: Evidence is being headed over to the defense as both

797
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 18: sides get ready for the August fourteenth trial date. The

798
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,280
Speaker 18: grand jury testimony of witnesses set to testify at trial,

799
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,320
Speaker 18: a twenty twenty one recording of the former president discussing

800
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 18: having classified information, other public statements made by Trump, an

801
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 18: FBI interview of Trump's personal aid and co defendant, and

802
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 18: pictures of boxes of records at mar A Lago. Both

803
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 18: sides are prevented from publicly sharing the evidence that's been

804
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 18: turned over, and Trump's attorneys are working on getting security

805
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 18: clearances to review any classified material. In Washington. I'm Mamy Morris,

806
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 18: Bloomberg Daybreak.

807
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 12: Right, Amy, thank you well. Elsewhere in Washington, the House

808
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 12: is voted to censure Adam Schiff. Lawmakers voted along party

809
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,479
Speaker 12: lines to center the California Democrat over comments made during

810
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 12: investigations at Donald Trump's ties to Russia. Schiff was defy

811
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 12: and a head of the vote, calling out House Speaker

812
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 12: Kevin McCarthy.

813
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 19: McCarthy would spend the nation's time on petty political payback,

814
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 19: thinking he can censure or find Trump's opposition into submission,

815
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 19: but I will not yield, not one inch.

816
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 12: Adam Schiff becomes the twenty fifth House lawmaker to be censured.

817
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 12: He was the lead prosecutor and former President Trump's first

818
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 12: impeachment trial.

819
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 13: Karen Let's turn from politics now to financial markets. Jay

820
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 13: Powell is back in focus as the FED chair prepares

821
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 13: for day two of congressional testimony. Yesterday, Powell told the

822
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:16,400
Speaker 13: House Financial Services Committee more interest rate hikes are on

823
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 13: the way.

824
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 20: Almost every single of the sixteen of the eighteen participants

825
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 20: on the FMC wrote down that they do believe it'll

826
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,240
Speaker 20: be appropriate to raise rates, and a big majority believes

827
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 20: razor rates twice this year. And you know, I think

828
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 20: that's a pretty good guess of what will happen if

829
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 20: the economy performs about is expected.

830
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 13: And Pale's comments come after the Fed pause drate hikes

831
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 13: last week for the first time in fifteen months.

832
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 12: Well, Nathan, not all FED officials are on board for

833
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 12: more rate increases. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostick says

834
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 12: he supports holding at the current level for the rest

835
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 12: of this year. We get more from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.

836
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 21: Bostick says it is prudent to give time for inflation

837
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 21: to ease. In response to past moves. In an online commentary,

838
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 21: Bostick said, quote, letting restrictive policy work for a while

839
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 21: is prudent because the Podlsey has been truly restrictive for

840
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 21: less than a year, and it takes time from monetary

841
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 21: policy changes to meaningfully influence economic activity. In a later

842
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 21: Yahoo Finance interview, bostics said, quote, my baseline is that

843
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 21: we should stay at this level for the rest of

844
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 21: the year. In New York, Charlie Podett Bloomberg Daybreak.

845
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 13: Thank you, Charlie. Central banks are also in focus overseas

846
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 13: this morning. The Bank of England is expected to raise

847
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 13: rates again today, and we get the details from Bloomberg's

848
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:32,760
Speaker 13: Uwan parts in London.

849
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 22: Central banks were meant to get boring this summer, but

850
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:37,840
Speaker 22: Britain's red hot inflation may force the Bank of England

851
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 22: to press hard on the breaks today. Economists and investors

852
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,720
Speaker 22: expect the Monetary Policy Committee to push ahead with another

853
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 22: cause point increase in the base rate to four point

854
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 22: seventy five percent. What would be the thirteenth rise in

855
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 22: the hiking cycle, but core inflation at a thirty one

856
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 22: year high. It means money markets now placed a forty

857
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 22: percent chance on a bigger half point increase. It's an

858
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,839
Speaker 22: anxious backdrop. So a mortgage market which has already seen

859
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 22: soaring rates this month in London, immune pot's been back daybreak.

860
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 14: All and you and thanks.

861
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 12: So we have some other central bank decisions in Europe

862
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:09,720
Speaker 12: to tell you about this morning.

863
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 18: Switzerland hiked rates by twenty five.

864
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 12: Basis points and that amounts to the smallest increase since

865
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 12: the SNB started tightening policy last year. And Norway when

866
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,800
Speaker 12: even further, hiking rates by fifty basis points, that's the

867
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 12: largest increase since the central bank's current tightening cycle.

868
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 13: Staying in Europe, Karen Deutsche Bank's CEO, is out with

869
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:31,280
Speaker 13: an optimistic outlook. Christian Saving says he expects trading results

870
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 13: to improve in the second half as clients navigate a

871
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 13: complex and challenging economy. Speaking exclusively to Bloomberg, the Deutsche

872
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 13: Bank CEO said there are also challenges facing the business.

873
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:44,439
Speaker 23: With regard to the investment bank, we always said that

874
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 23: we had a record year. We had an extraordinary strong

875
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 23: year in the fig business in twenty twenty two. I

876
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:53,879
Speaker 23: still think that actually in Q one and Q two

877
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 23: we have done well, but the overall market is a

878
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,839
Speaker 23: bit weaker than in the record year of twenty twenty two.

879
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 13: And again, that was Deutsche Bank's CEO Christian Savings, speaking

880
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 13: exclusively with Bloomberg State Tuned for more of that conversation

881
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 13: coming up shortly, and for that look at other stories

882
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 13: making news in New York and around the world. We

883
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 13: are joined by Bloomberg's Michael Bark Morning.

884
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 14: Michael, Good Morning, Nathan.

885
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 15: A deadly tornado hit a small town in northwest Texas

886
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 15: last night, leaving significant damage in its wake. The mayor

887
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 15: of Matadoras says at least three people had been killed

888
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 15: in the storm, which also damaged and destroyed homes and businesses.

889
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 15: The dangerous heat wave across the South is turned deadly.

890
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 15: The US Postal Service confirmed a letter carrier in Dallas, Texas,

891
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 15: died while delivering mail in the heat. Multiple cities are

892
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 15: shattering all time heat records. South of Houston, crews are

893
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,760
Speaker 15: racing to repair roads that buckled under the heat. Texas

894
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 15: Department of Transportation spokesman Danny Perez says workers safety is

895
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 15: being monitored closely, making sure.

896
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,360
Speaker 24: They're staying hydrated, making sure that they're aware of the situation.

897
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 13: And making sure that they're not staying out longer than

898
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 13: they need to.

899
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 15: Near Corpus Christy, it felt like one hundred and twenty

900
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 15: seven degrees. Tenants in New York City's roughly one million

901
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 15: rents stabilized apartments will face increases of three percent for

902
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 15: one year leases after a tense meeting filled with protesters.

903
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 15: The city's rent Guidelines Board also voted yesterday for two

904
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 15: year leases. Rents will increase two point seventy five percent

905
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 15: in first year and an additional three point two percent

906
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 15: in the second year. The rents are expected to increase

907
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:37,399
Speaker 15: October first. Another lithium ion battery fire in New York.

908
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:39,919
Speaker 15: At least two people were hurt in the blaze last

909
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 15: night in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn. The fire that was quickly extinguished

910
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 15: comes just hours after Mayor Eric Adams says that New

911
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 15: York is taking action after four people were killed from

912
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 15: a fire and an e bike repair shop in Manhattan

913
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 15: earlier this week. Adams announced a new action plan to

914
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:01,800
Speaker 15: speed up investigations about potentially hazard his conditions involving lithium

915
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 15: ion batteries and bike shops.

916
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,479
Speaker 24: We need real action not only on the state level,

917
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 24: but on the federal level. They have been over one

918
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 24: hundred and eight lithian ion related battery fires in this

919
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 24: city this year alone.

920
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 15: Mayor Adams also announced an outreach and education campaign aimed

921
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 15: at shop owners about the dangers regarding the batteries. The

922
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 15: New York State legislature has passed a bill to protect

923
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 15: abortion providers against being sued from states where the practice

924
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 15: is banned. The bill would legally protect doctors, ensuring medical

925
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 15: providers in the state will be able to provide telehealth

926
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 15: services to patients who do not live in New York.

927
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 15: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more

928
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 15: than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in over one

929
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 15: hundred and twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg, Nathan.

930
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 13: Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Up.

931
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 13: Take good morning, John Staneshaw A good morning, Nathan and Yankees.

932
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 13: Of course some big name, high priced guys, they were

933
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 13: not the ones that led them to victory at the stadium.

934
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 13: Johnny Brido got the start up for the Miners. He

935
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:09,439
Speaker 13: pitched it to the sixth inning, did not allow a run,

936
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,800
Speaker 13: gave up just two hits. Yanks had only five hits,

937
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 13: but three of them left the yard.

938
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 21: Here's the payoff.

939
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 14: He's not running in the pitches.

940
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:18,240
Speaker 25: Swung on and ahead of the edity right that falls high,

941
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 25: that is far there, it is gone. It's a two

942
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:29,320
Speaker 25: run home run by the Yankee of ours, and that's Jake.

943
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,720
Speaker 14: Bauerfa and six home run for Bowers.

944
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 16: Billy mckinning other than left handed hitting outfielder just stuck

945
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:37,479
Speaker 16: from Scranton hit his second as many nights and later

946
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 16: the tenth of the season for the rookie Anthony Volpa.

947
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 16: Yankees beat the Mariners four to two, and they go

948
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 16: for the sweep.

949
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 14: Tonight.

950
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,359
Speaker 16: The Mets lost in Houston ten to eight. This game

951
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 16: is nine to six. Still in the fourth inning, Tyler

952
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 16: McGill gave up five runs. Anthony and Leoni followed got

953
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,720
Speaker 16: only four. House gave up four more runs in defeat.

954
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 16: Twenty third home run for Pete Lonzoa. The Mets have

955
00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 16: now lost thirteen their last seventeen. Cincinnati has won all

956
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 16: it's last eleven, the Red's longest winning streaking sixty six

957
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 16: years and the Giants won again.

958
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 14: They've won their last ten. Big NBA trade just.

959
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 16: Ahead of tonight's draft, It takes place at the Barkley Center.

960
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 16: Three teen deal saw the Celtics acquire the ex Nick

961
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 16: christophs Porzengis coming in from Washington. It cost them Marcus Smart,

962
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 16: a Celtic for nine years two seasons ago, the NBA's

963
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 16: top defensive player, he goes to Memphis. The draft will

964
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:26,760
Speaker 16: begin with San Antonio taking Victor Wembiniama the French penal.

965
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,359
Speaker 16: The Nets have back to back picks in the first round,

966
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 16: twenty first and twenty second. The Knicks have stockpiled picks

967
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,760
Speaker 16: in later years, but tonight, barring a Trey, the Knicks

968
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 16: will not have a pick.

969
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 14: John Stashwin Bloomberg.

970
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 26: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

971
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 26: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Sirius xam, the Bloomberg

972
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 26: Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg day Break.

973
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 26: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

974
00:51:56,560 --> 00:52:00,280
Speaker 13: There's momentum in the business, so says Deutsche Banks CEO

975
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 13: Christian Saving. Then, while he warns of a decline in

976
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 13: trading revenue this quarter. He expects results to improve in

977
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 13: the second half, pointing to clients currently navigating a complex

978
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 13: and challenging economy. Christian Savings sat down for an exclusive

979
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 13: interview with Bloomberg's Guy Johnson. Let's listen into that conversation.

980
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 27: Now, the macro uncertainty that has driven markets so much recently,

981
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 27: do you get the feeling that that is beginning to received,

982
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:29,319
Speaker 27: Do you get the impression that you are increasingly on

983
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 27: more solid ground.

984
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 23: Well, first of all, I think we all have to

985
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 23: admit that if you look what has happened over the

986
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 23: last twelve to fifteen months in the macro. On the

987
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 23: geopolitical side, I think economies have really shown how resilient

988
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 23: they are. Because a year ago, a lot of people

989
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 23: would have said there is a quite material recession in Europe,

990
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 23: in Germany, potentially also in the US. And if we

991
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 23: now look back, I think we see that the answer

992
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:04,720
Speaker 23: we have given is actually showing that we fared quite

993
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 23: well over the last twelve to fifty months. Now, I

994
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 23: think the situation remains complex. I do believe that with

995
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 23: a very persistent inflation, interests will further go up on

996
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,439
Speaker 23: both sides of the ocean, And I also do believe Guy,

997
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:25,800
Speaker 23: that the interest will then stay a little bit longer

998
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 23: elevated than potentially a lot of people think. And that

999
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:34,280
Speaker 23: means that I still believe that there is a chance

1000
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,960
Speaker 23: of a mild recession in the US at the end

1001
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:41,360
Speaker 23: of twenty three early twenty four, as well as in Europe.

1002
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 23: You see that Germany is in a technical recession, has

1003
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 23: been in a technical recession. So I don't believe that

1004
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 23: we will see a material recession, but I do think

1005
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 23: that uncertainty still prevails, and hence we need to watch out.

1006
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 23: And the second half of twenty twenty three is for

1007
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:08,800
Speaker 23: sure a half which is still complex and is still challenging.

1008
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:13,239
Speaker 27: So does that mean that the Q two guidance that

1009
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 27: your CFO gave a few days back was just a

1010
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 27: was just a blip? He was talking about fixed income

1011
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 27: being down fifteen to twenty percent. You talk about the

1012
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 27: fact that the second half is going to see significant uncertainy.

1013
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 27: That's a good environment for fixed income. So therefore, was

1014
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 27: the Q two guidance just a blip? And do you

1015
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 27: still believe that the fullier numbers are going to be

1016
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 27: better than the numbers that James gave well, let's.

1017
00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 23: Start with your world bank, and there we see a

1018
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 23: good momentum. That is the strategy of Deutsche Bank. Then

1019
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:44,799
Speaker 23: we says we need a more balanced bank. That was

1020
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 23: exactly what we wanted to achieve in twenty nineteen when

1021
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:49,840
Speaker 23: we called out the transformation of Deutsche Bank. And we

1022
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,399
Speaker 23: see the results. We have a very strong corporate bank,

1023
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 23: a very nice developing private bank, and therefore we can

1024
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 23: confirm our twenty eight to twenty nine billion of revenues

1025
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 23: for this year. We see the momentum. We see a

1026
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 23: Q two to be honest, Q two twenty twenty three

1027
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:08,399
Speaker 23: from a revenue point of view, which is higher than

1028
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:12,439
Speaker 23: Q two twenty twenty two. So overall, I would say

1029
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 23: this bank is faring well. The strategy is paying off.

1030
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 23: With regard to the investment bank, we always said that

1031
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:25,359
Speaker 23: we had a record year. We had an extraordinary strong

1032
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 23: year in the fake business in twenty twenty two. I

1033
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 23: still think that actually in Q one and Q two

1034
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 23: we have done well, but the overall market is a

1035
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 23: bit weaker than in the record year of twenty twenty two.

1036
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 23: But I do believe with some uncertainties, for instance, the

1037
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 23: dead ceiling issue going away in the US then with

1038
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 23: the still complex situation which is in front of us,

1039
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 23: I do believe that in Q three and Q four

1040
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 23: there is momentum in the business on.

1041
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 14: The fix side.

1042
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 23: But for us, as a strategy of Deutsche Bank, it's

1043
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 23: important that we've further balance out the investment bank or all.

1044
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 23: We have a very strong fake business, we have a

1045
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 23: very strong DCM business. What we really wanted to achieve

1046
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 23: is that also the owen A business is further s

1047
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 23: frankstened and hence we've put a lot of investments into that.

1048
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 27: So just to wrap this part of the conversation up,

1049
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 27: it is going to be it's going to be an

1050
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 27: operating environment for the fake business that is likely to

1051
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 27: be less good than next year than last year. Q

1052
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 27: two may or may not be a blip. You still

1053
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:31,680
Speaker 27: see uncertainty in the second half of the year, which

1054
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 27: could provide opportunity. So on balance, the numbers are likely

1055
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 27: to be slightly better than the fifteen to twenty percent

1056
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 27: that James guided to.

1057
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 23: That's what I would say for the coming months and weeks.

1058
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 27: Again, Q two was.

1059
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:49,719
Speaker 23: Also a particular quarter given the situation also which we

1060
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 23: had in the US. We can already see also now

1061
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:55,239
Speaker 23: in June on the most recent days that there is

1062
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 23: a that there is momentum in the business. So I'm

1063
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 23: overill quite comfortable also with the Fig business. And again

1064
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 23: Q two was a particular quarter. I would say that

1065
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 23: the Fig business in Q three and Q four I

1066
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,320
Speaker 23: think there was a slight recovery.

1067
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 27: You are very good at keeping secrets. Let's talk about

1068
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 27: the new Mist acquisition for those of us to follow

1069
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 27: the bank. It caught us all by surprise. I understand

1070
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:25,440
Speaker 27: you'd been working on it for quite some time, but

1071
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 27: it definitely caught us by surprise. Was the offer just

1072
00:57:30,760 --> 00:57:33,560
Speaker 27: too good to refuse? Was the price just too good

1073
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 27: to refuse? Where did it come from? Where did where

1074
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 27: did your decision to go in this direction the advisory

1075
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 27: business come from?

1076
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 23: Well, I just said it in my previous answer. You know,

1077
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 23: I'm a big believer, and the whole management team of

1078
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 23: Deutsche Bank is a big believer that we need balance business,

1079
00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:52,560
Speaker 23: not only for the overall bank. That was the reason

1080
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,959
Speaker 23: why we did the transformation four years ago. Stable, well

1081
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 23: balanced set up with four businesses. In each of those

1082
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 23: business I again want to be balanced, and we have

1083
00:58:02,720 --> 00:58:06,440
Speaker 23: a very strong thick and DCM business. Where we wanted

1084
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 23: to further invest is in the ONA business. And you know,

1085
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 23: we looked at Numis for a long long time, and

1086
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:16,959
Speaker 23: yes we kept the secret quite well, and we think

1087
00:58:17,040 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 23: it's an optimal addition to our business mix and to

1088
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:24,840
Speaker 23: our offerings in Europe and in particular in the UK.

1089
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 23: The UK is from a fee market pool, it's the

1090
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 23: most lucrative European market. We are adding one hundred and

1091
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 23: seventy top corporate lines and it fits beautifully to our

1092
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 23: global house bank concept. Everybody is only thinking about the

1093
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 23: investment banking offering, and yes that's obviously something we are

1094
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 23: very much interested in and it fits to our existing

1095
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,439
Speaker 23: positioning in the UK. But we have a really well

1096
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 23: functioning corporate bank. So we have one hundred and seventy

1097
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 23: additional clients with Numis now and we can offer our

1098
00:58:58,480 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 23: corporate banking product and at the same time we have

1099
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 23: a private bank where I think we can also do

1100
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 23: the one or the other things. So the over global

1101
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 23: houseback concept is fitting very well to Numous and therefore

1102
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 23: we looked at it very carefully. I'm very glad about

1103
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:16,439
Speaker 23: the job Fabrizo and the team have done and now

1104
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 23: we concluded this and now we need to make the

1105
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 23: final steps.

1106
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 14: Right.

1107
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 27: Are you keeping more secrets from me?

1108
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 21: Are there?

1109
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:25,560
Speaker 27: You talk about the other divisions and the fact that

1110
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:28,680
Speaker 27: you want to you want to have balance. Are there

1111
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:32,280
Speaker 27: other deals in the offering, even another great opportunity came along.

1112
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,760
Speaker 27: Are you still interested or is the dry powder gone?

1113
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 4: No?

1114
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:38,480
Speaker 23: I would say, look, I think we are very careful

1115
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 23: and cautious planning team. But of course we always said

1116
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 23: that after restructuring and positioning this bank, we are up

1117
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 23: for growth, and we always says we want to grow

1118
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 23: in more capital led products, which is for instance, the

1119
00:59:54,400 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 23: o NA business in the m and a business in

1120
00:59:56,880 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 23: the advisory business. But you have also seen that we

1121
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 23: have done senior hires again in corporate finance, but also

1122
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 23: in the wealth management business. So we think that we

1123
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:09,480
Speaker 23: can further balance out the business at some point in

1124
01:00:09,560 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 23: time over two three years. You know, we want to

1125
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 23: also and we need to plan for a situation that

1126
01:00:16,360 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 23: ANII is at some point in time again coming down.

1127
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 23: We need then additional income streams, and this bank is

1128
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 23: planning for that and is investing for that right now.

1129
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:29,080
Speaker 23: And hence a I wouldn't tell you about secrets because

1130
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 23: you just said we are good at it at keeping it,

1131
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 23: but that there is a clear growth strategy in parts

1132
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 23: like wealth management, origination advisory. Yes, we are focusing on

1133
01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 23: that and with the recent hires we've seen.

1134
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 27: That you talk about HighRes on the well side, though,

1135
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 27: do you see the growth they're being organic? Do you

1136
01:00:46,480 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 27: see it being via acquisition of talent rather than acquisition

1137
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 27: of businesses?

1138
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 23: Well, it's it's it's both. But I do believe that

1139
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 23: we have now such a nice positioning and such a

1140
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 23: nice structure that we really do believe that if you

1141
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:06,800
Speaker 23: have a chance to acquire and get good and great

1142
01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 23: talent in all kinds of regions, this is a really

1143
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 23: good way in step by step growing your business. Claudio

1144
01:01:16,160 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 23: DeSanctis has done that very successfully in Asia in other

1145
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 23: parts of southern Europe. So that is the first way

1146
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 23: of growing.

1147
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 27: If Commons Bank ever came back, would you be interested

1148
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 27: in that acquisition. They have got a huge deposit base,

1149
01:01:31,000 --> 01:01:33,640
Speaker 27: which in this environment is hugely attractive.

1150
01:01:34,360 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 23: Well, we also have a huge deposit base.

1151
01:01:37,400 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 27: Together it will be even bigger.

1152
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:39,560
Speaker 26: Yeah.

1153
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 23: But I think we have shown also during the recent

1154
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 23: volatilities in the market, how firm and how stable. Our

1155
01:01:45,880 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 23: deposit base is so that is not a reason to

1156
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:53,600
Speaker 23: actually think about further enlarging it or acquiring somebody else.

1157
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 23: I think the full focus of Deutsche Bank is now,

1158
01:01:58,200 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 23: after successfully delivering transformation over the last three or four years,

1159
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 23: is now growing into an area where we have a

1160
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 23: return on equity of larger than ten percent in twenty

1161
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 23: twenty five. We are in a good way of achieving that.

1162
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 23: The first quarter of twenty twenty three has clearly shown

1163
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 23: the strength of Torche Bank, and we can control it

1164
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 23: by ourselves. We can achieve that by ourselves, and that

1165
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 23: is all focused.

1166
01:02:24,240 --> 01:02:27,320
Speaker 13: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the

1167
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:30,880
Speaker 13: stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

1168
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 12: Look for us on your podcast feed at six am

1169
01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:37,560
Speaker 12: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

1170
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 12: get your podcasts.

1171
01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 13: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

1172
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 13: am Wall Street time, on Bloomberg eleven three to zero

1173
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 13: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,

1174
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:50,439
Speaker 13: Bloomberg one oh six' one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety

1175
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 13: sixty in San Francisco.

1176
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 12: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

1177
01:02:55,440 --> 01:03:00,080
Speaker 12: Amazon Alexa devices, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

1178
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:03,479
Speaker 13: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app,

1179
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 13: serious XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on

1180
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 13: Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager.

1181
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:10,960
Speaker 18: And I'm Karen Moscow.

1182
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 12: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

1183
01:03:14,040 --> 01:03:17,240
Speaker 12: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak