WEBVTT - Tesla Signals More Price Cuts Ahead

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news the Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Tesla's going to keep cutting prices to stoke demand, even

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<v Speaker 2>after markdowns early this year took a significant toll of profitability.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll get into their operating margin. You know you've been

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<v Speaker 2>hearing about that a lot. That news was last night

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<v Speaker 2>and then this morning, SpaceX attempting to send its starship

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<v Speaker 2>system into space and then it exploded.

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<v Speaker 3>We have some.

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<v Speaker 2>Details on that, so let's get into it with our

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News EV reporter Sean o'caine with us on zoom

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<v Speaker 2>into Austin, Texas. And then also with us is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>News Space reporter Lauren Greshe's on site in Texas near

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<v Speaker 2>where the rocket exploded earlier today. So our thanks to

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<v Speaker 2>both of you.

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<v Speaker 3>Sean. I do want to start with.

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<v Speaker 2>You, though, because the news out of Tesla last night,

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<v Speaker 2>what we got in the earnings release and then what

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<v Speaker 2>Elon had to say on the call with analysts, definitely

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<v Speaker 2>move the stock price. What do you think here we

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<v Speaker 2>are what twenty four hours in? Really is the key

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<v Speaker 2>takeaway from what Tesla had to say.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I mean, the bottom line is that the automotive

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<v Speaker 4>gross margins when you pull out leases and you pull

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<v Speaker 4>out regulatory credits, were under the target that Tesla's CFO

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<v Speaker 4>Zach Kirkhorn, had forecasted on the last call back in January.

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<v Speaker 4>He basically said, hey, you know, because that was right

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<v Speaker 4>around they had started making the really drastic cuts. They

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<v Speaker 4>had already implemented price cuts at the end of last

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<v Speaker 4>year in anticipation of, you know, all the questions about

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<v Speaker 4>who was going to qualify for IRA credits and whatnot,

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<v Speaker 4>and so he had said, hey, you know, we have

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<v Speaker 4>industry leading margins. We're going to be able to take

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<v Speaker 4>a bite out of those with some of these cuts

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<v Speaker 4>to keep demand up, and we don't think it's going

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<v Speaker 4>to go under twenty percent. But after they released the

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<v Speaker 4>numbers last night, it seems like most analysts were able

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<v Speaker 4>to work out that automotive gross margin margins excluding those

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<v Speaker 4>items were closer to eighteen percent. So even he was

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<v Speaker 4>willing to admit on the call that that was lower

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<v Speaker 4>than they expected. And that was the result of continuing

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<v Speaker 4>to make cuts from the time of the last call

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<v Speaker 4>to now, and also some other issues like some changes

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<v Speaker 4>to the warranty on older vehicles and things like that.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think that's the biggest thing. I think the

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<v Speaker 4>other biggest thing is that it doesn't sound like they're done.

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<v Speaker 4>Elon Musk seems like he's eager to take advantage of

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<v Speaker 4>the fact that they still have more margin to go

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<v Speaker 4>that they could eat into if they wanted to continue

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<v Speaker 4>to drop prices.

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<v Speaker 5>So, Sean, can you talk to me about that automotive

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<v Speaker 5>gross margin number because it typically is just included in

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<v Speaker 5>the earnings report, but analysts had to crunch the numbers

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<v Speaker 5>this time around. Was that notable to you?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that was the first thing that jumped out of

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<v Speaker 4>me because it was the first thing I was looking for,

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<v Speaker 4>like many other.

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<v Speaker 6>People searching for it, right Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's usually right up top and that first entry

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<v Speaker 4>of the earnings report, and so it was very obvious

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<v Speaker 4>right away that it wasn't going to be there and

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<v Speaker 4>that it was going to take a little bit of math.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not terribly surprised at that. I mean, one of

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<v Speaker 4>the things that Tesla's c said last quarter was that.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, he gave those predictions about a twenty percent

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<v Speaker 4>automotive gross margin and a forty seven thousand average selling

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<v Speaker 4>price across all their models, and he was sort of

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<v Speaker 4>forecasting that. But he also said right after that, Hey,

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<v Speaker 4>just so you know, we care more internally about the

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<v Speaker 4>operating margin. We hope that's something that you'll consider as

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<v Speaker 4>you go forward. So that they deemphasized automotive gross margin,

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<v Speaker 4>I guess, to put it nicely, didn't really come as

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<v Speaker 4>a surprise, although his favorite metric, operating gross margin was

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<v Speaker 4>down pretty pretty severely, down to eleven point four percent,

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<v Speaker 4>when a year ago it was in the nineteen So

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<v Speaker 4>they call that a manageable decline. I think a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of other people were sort of trying to factor that

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<v Speaker 4>in today as we saw the stock drop.

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<v Speaker 1>A little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah absolutely, I mean still up thirty two percent this year,

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<v Speaker 2>but definitely a big haircut. Hey, Lauren, come on in

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<v Speaker 2>on the story of all things elon Starlink.

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<v Speaker 3>What exactly happened?

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<v Speaker 7>Right? So it's the starship spacecraft.

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<v Speaker 3>The starships.

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<v Speaker 7>It's sorry, yeah, yeah, no, no, it's it's actually quite

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<v Speaker 7>confusing because they put the word star in front of everything,

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<v Speaker 7>I think. But yes, it's Starship and it's their deep

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<v Speaker 7>based rocket that they're hoping to use to send humans

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<v Speaker 7>to deep space like the Moon in Mars, and they

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<v Speaker 7>are They tried to launch it on its first test

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<v Speaker 7>launch today. Unfortunately, you know, it did it did achieve

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<v Speaker 7>some air but ultimately, uh had it did explode at

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<v Speaker 7>about four minutes into the flight. So you know, they

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<v Speaker 7>definitely got a lot of data from it, but you know,

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<v Speaker 7>didn't in the way they.

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<v Speaker 3>Expected exploded or they exploded it.

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<v Speaker 7>So they exploded it. So we just learned recently. We

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<v Speaker 7>were we were questioning for a minute whether or not

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<v Speaker 7>it exploded on its own, maybe from aerodynamics, you know,

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<v Speaker 7>pressures or forces on the vehicle. But it turns out

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<v Speaker 7>that once the Starship rocket was going off course, it

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<v Speaker 7>was if you looked on the live stream, you could

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<v Speaker 7>see that it was kind of twirling off for tumbling

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<v Speaker 7>wildly in the sky. And then eventually SpaceX revealed that

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<v Speaker 7>they activated the flight termination system, which is used to

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<v Speaker 7>blow up the rocket so that it doesn't it ensures

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<v Speaker 7>that it does not harm any uninvolved public or property.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, Lauren, I want to stick on some of the

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<v Speaker 5>good news that we got for SpaceX today, and you

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<v Speaker 5>have an amazing piece on this Everyone should go read it.

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<v Speaker 5>I was blown away that you were able to change

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<v Speaker 5>the intro so quickly based on the news because it's

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<v Speaker 5>such a great piece on the terminal and online. Talk

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<v Speaker 5>to me about the winds for SpaceX today.

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<v Speaker 7>Absolutely, and you know what that is just what space entails, right,

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<v Speaker 7>there's always winds that you have to always be flexible

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<v Speaker 7>because you never know how these things are going to

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<v Speaker 7>turn out. But yes, some great wins today. I mean,

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<v Speaker 7>this was the first test flight of the fully stacked

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<v Speaker 7>Starship rocket. So Starship consists of two main parts of

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<v Speaker 7>the Starship vehicle which carries the cargo, the satellite, the people.

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<v Speaker 7>That's the top of the rocket, and then the bottom

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<v Speaker 7>of the rocket is the super heavy booster and that's

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<v Speaker 7>what's needed. It has thirty three raptor engines on a

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<v Speaker 7>space and it's used to break free of Earth's gravity

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<v Speaker 7>and propel Starship to space. And this was the first

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<v Speaker 7>time both of those pieces flew together, stacked on top

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<v Speaker 7>of each other, on top of each other, so that

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<v Speaker 7>is a major win for SpaceX. They were able to

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<v Speaker 7>actually clear the launch pad, achieve the highest helt seat

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<v Speaker 7>I think they've ever done with this vehicle, and they

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<v Speaker 7>were actually able to show that super heavy can fly.

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<v Speaker 7>So unfortunately they had some engine out issues. You know,

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<v Speaker 7>not all thirty three engines actually ignited, and some of

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<v Speaker 7>them flamed out during the flight. And then obviously there

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<v Speaker 7>are some cold control issues in the sky. But definitely

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<v Speaker 7>a major win and SpaceX is thinking it a major win.

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<v Speaker 7>I don't know if you can hear behind me, but

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<v Speaker 7>I'm out at a party where everyone is celebrating right

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<v Speaker 7>now because they are so happy that this thing actually

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<v Speaker 7>left the launch pad. So it's actually SpaceX is definitely

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<v Speaker 7>seeing it as a win. For sure. They can use

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<v Speaker 7>the data to incorporate it into future flight for sure.

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<v Speaker 3>All I could think of is like, what did that cost?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to go back to the business side of

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<v Speaker 2>the story, Sean, come on back in here. What other

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<v Speaker 2>color can you give us in terms of what we

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<v Speaker 2>heard and what kind of elon we got on the

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<v Speaker 2>analyst call?

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<v Speaker 8>Uh?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know it was.

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<v Speaker 8>Uh.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's funny that we get him every time now,

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<v Speaker 4>despite him saying a couple a couple of years ago

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<v Speaker 4>that he was going to stop doing these things, But

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<v Speaker 4>you know, he still seems pretty obviously involved in the

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<v Speaker 4>day to there, day to day there, despite having a

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<v Speaker 4>lot on his plate this week, whether that's the business

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<v Speaker 4>of Twitter and trying to keep that afloat, and also

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<v Speaker 4>launching a piece of technology into this guy that had

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<v Speaker 4>never launched before in the super Heavy Booster. So you know,

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<v Speaker 4>it was it was interesting to hear him talk. I

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<v Speaker 4>think the thing that really stuck out to me the

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<v Speaker 4>most on the call and from Elon himself, was that

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<v Speaker 4>in talking about the ability to eat into those margins

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<v Speaker 4>as far as keeping competitive pressure up, he's talking about

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<v Speaker 4>he thinks Too could actually go to zero profit on

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<v Speaker 4>its cars, which is an outrageous thing to say because

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<v Speaker 4>he so fully believes in the ability of his company

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<v Speaker 4>to deliver on this promise that they've been promising for

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<v Speaker 4>years of being able to make its cars fully autonomous,

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<v Speaker 4>that he thinks they could actually sell these things at

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<v Speaker 4>a wash in the near term and recoup any of

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<v Speaker 4>that lost profit down the road if they were able

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<v Speaker 4>to roll out full self driving as an actual feature

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<v Speaker 4>that people want to pay for and that is so revolutionary.

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<v Speaker 5>That it would see self driving.

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<v Speaker 3>Like, come on, I.

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<v Speaker 4>Mean a lot of people. A lot of people take

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<v Speaker 4>that same approach. You know, I think we want to

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<v Speaker 4>know for sure that it's possible. And he even explained

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<v Speaker 4>last night he used it as a two step forward,

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<v Speaker 4>one step back. Problems at the state we got to run.

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<v Speaker 3>Sean and Lauren, thank you so much. This is Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>So another decision coming tomorrow on abortion pill limits as

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<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court extended a temporary hold on new restrictions

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<v Speaker 2>on those pills, those restrictions imposed by a federal judge

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<v Speaker 2>in Texas.

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<v Speaker 5>And now justices have until tomorrow to decide what to

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<v Speaker 5>do with this case. This comes after the Biden administration

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<v Speaker 5>and dan Co Laboratories, which is the maker of the drug,

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<v Speaker 5>requested that any restrictions get put on hold. While this

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<v Speaker 5>legal battle continues a lot of moving parts. So here

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<v Speaker 5>to discuss the impact of that battle is doctor Suzanne Bell,

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<v Speaker 5>Assistant professor in Population, Family and Reproductive Health at Johns

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<v Speaker 5>Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, which I should mention

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<v Speaker 5>as supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP

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<v Speaker 5>and Bloomberg Philanthropies. She's on zoom with us from Baltimore.

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<v Speaker 3>Doctor Bell.

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<v Speaker 5>Great to speak with you, and thanks for being here.

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<v Speaker 5>I know we've been back and forth on this case

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<v Speaker 5>for a couple of weeks, but what do we know

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<v Speaker 5>right now about the impact that it's already had in

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<v Speaker 5>terms of access to this pill?

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<v Speaker 9>Yeah, so right now, I'm just introduce using a lot

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<v Speaker 9>of uncertainty in the states where abortion is still legal

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<v Speaker 9>and providers are of just in an awaiting game right

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<v Speaker 9>now for this decision, with a lot of potential clinical

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<v Speaker 9>implications around the provision of medication abortion, which is currently

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<v Speaker 9>more than half of abortions in the US, What does.

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<v Speaker 2>It mean if women don't have access to this pill

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<v Speaker 2>going forward?

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<v Speaker 3>Ultimately?

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<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I mean, I think, much to the chagrin of

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<v Speaker 9>the people who brought this cases, will not stop medication

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<v Speaker 9>abortions from occurring. It is just really another attempt to

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<v Speaker 9>interfere with the delivery of evidence based health care and

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<v Speaker 9>control pregnant people's bodies. Providers will instead be forced to

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<v Speaker 9>use a misoprostal only regimen instead of the more effective

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<v Speaker 9>combined regimen with me for pristone, which simply means that

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<v Speaker 9>pregnant people are going to be exposed to more uncomfortable

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<v Speaker 9>and potentially severe side effects that are very uncomfortable. But ultimately,

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<v Speaker 9>this is an incredibly safe and effective regimen. It's really

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<v Speaker 9>just a matter of interfering with the science when in fact,

0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:07.320
<v Speaker 9>we have evidence for more than one hundred peer reviewed,

0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:11.640
<v Speaker 9>rigorous studies showing that this medicine in combination with me

0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.680
<v Speaker 9>so prostal is highly effective and safe for terminating pregnancies.

0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:17.160
<v Speaker 5>Okay, talk to me about the evidence here. I'm so

0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:20.160
<v Speaker 5>glad you bring this up because one of the nuances

0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:21.640
<v Speaker 5>of this case for those of us who are not

0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:25.720
<v Speaker 5>doctors is this question about FDA approval that the judge

0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.400
<v Speaker 5>in Texas brought up. Can you explain that to me?

0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:31.199
<v Speaker 5>Is there any reason from your perspective to be concerned

0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:33.400
<v Speaker 5>about the FDA approval of the abortion pill?

0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:35.240
<v Speaker 10>Absolutely not.

0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:38.800
<v Speaker 9>You know, the FDA is a very conservative, independent agency

0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:42.079
<v Speaker 9>full of scientists that know how to evaluate the science,

0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 9>and we already had almost two about fifteen fourteen years

0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:52.680
<v Speaker 9>of approval in France, where the medicine was developed before

0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:56.240
<v Speaker 9>the FDA even approved it in two thousand and Since then,

0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.719
<v Speaker 9>we have approximately eighty countries around the world who have.

0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:01.120
<v Speaker 10>Also approve this medicine.

0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:05.200
<v Speaker 9>We have decades of safety and effectiveness evidence from around

0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 9>the globe indicating that this is an appropriate approval that

0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:12.480
<v Speaker 9>the FDA provided more than twenty years ago. And you know,

0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.720
<v Speaker 9>in the intervening years in the US, hundreds of thousands,

0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:19.040
<v Speaker 9>if not millions, have used this drug as part of

0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:23.520
<v Speaker 9>their termination of a pregnancy. And so there's really no

0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:28.640
<v Speaker 9>legitimate claim here around safety and a lack of evidence

0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:29.720
<v Speaker 9>around me for pristom.

0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.000
<v Speaker 2>So what are the conversations you guys have been having

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:33.320
<v Speaker 2>at Johns Hopkins around this.

0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 10>I mean, I think it's really frustrating.

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:40.840
<v Speaker 9>There's a lot of frustration among clinicians, among social scientists

0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:43.720
<v Speaker 9>doing work in this area because it's going to it's

0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:47.880
<v Speaker 9>really just another way in which there are increasing barriers

0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:52.920
<v Speaker 9>to the ability for people to self determine and you know,

0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.080
<v Speaker 9>actualize their reproductive goals. This is just going to be

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 9>another impediment, and people will work tirelessly to reduce the

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.440
<v Speaker 9>impact act of those barriers. But really, what we know

0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:04.920
<v Speaker 9>from the evidence is that, you know, the more barriers

0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:08.559
<v Speaker 9>you put in place, the more disadvantaged populations in particular

0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.520
<v Speaker 9>are negatively impacted by them, and that is going to

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:16.360
<v Speaker 9>have you know, significant long term health, social, financial implications

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 9>for the people who ultimately aren't able to obtain a

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.199
<v Speaker 9>wanted abortion, whether it be medication or procedural.

0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:24.120
<v Speaker 10>In light of the fact that this is happening in

0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:24.959
<v Speaker 10>the backdrop of.

0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 9>Dobs and you know, twenty six states banning or severely

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 9>restricting abortion in those parts of the country.

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:33.520
<v Speaker 2>So Zan, let me just jump in and you say

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:35.840
<v Speaker 2>that it'll it'll you know, for those who might it

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.240
<v Speaker 2>might be difficult for them to obtain an abortion or

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.839
<v Speaker 2>I'm just curious, though, if the one pill is still

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:47.199
<v Speaker 2>available to everyone, how does that then maybe appease some of.

0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:48.440
<v Speaker 3>The impact on those numbers.

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 9>It will definitely reduce the likelihood that this is going

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:57.120
<v Speaker 9>to negate one of the options for people that are

0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 9>seeking abortion. I think it's just to situate this in

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.839
<v Speaker 9>the context of the much broader abortion landscape that we're

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.680
<v Speaker 9>sitting in right now in the US. This is just

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:10.520
<v Speaker 9>a way in which you will further you know, eroade

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:15.679
<v Speaker 9>access to safe, effective medication abortion. Meso prostal is the

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.360
<v Speaker 9>mesa prosta only regimen, like I mentioned, is still incredibly safe,

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:23.600
<v Speaker 9>slightly less effective, so you will expose people to slightly

0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:28.200
<v Speaker 9>more you know, potential for an incomplete abortion, and so

0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 9>it's you know, I think the claim in the lawsuit

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.600
<v Speaker 9>brought is really a farce because they claim to be

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 9>concerned about the discomfort of you know, medication abortion and

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 9>the risks associated with medication abortion and not wanting to

0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.280
<v Speaker 9>treat people in an emergency room that are suffering from

0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 9>medication abortion complications when in fact, less than half of

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 9>a percent of all medication abortions result in a complication

0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.440
<v Speaker 9>requiring you know, hospital based care.

0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 10>It's incredibly safe. And in addition to that, I think.

0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:02.720
<v Speaker 9>It completely negates the fact that pregnancy is incredibly risky.

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.160
<v Speaker 9>The risk of maternal death for a person that whose

0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 9>pregnancy and then alive birth is fifteen times greater than

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 9>that of safe abortion.

0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.040
<v Speaker 5>Wow, it's such an important data point. And I also

0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 5>heard you mentioned earlier which I hadn't heard before, that

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:19.880
<v Speaker 5>doubling up the second dose mesa prostal We know that

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 5>that's a backup plan if this does go through, But

0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:27.160
<v Speaker 5>is it more painful for the patient. Does it cause

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 5>other potential difficulties beyond potentially not being as effective. Does

0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.960
<v Speaker 5>it also cause potentially more discomfort than the current regimen.

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:37.920
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, that's exactly the case.

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.280
<v Speaker 9>It's really that, you know, the MESA prosta only regimen

0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 9>is used actually in many parts of the world where

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 9>mey for pristone is not registered and is still effective

0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 9>and safe. It is a who recommended means of safely

0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:56.200
<v Speaker 9>terminating a pregnancy, but it causes more uncomfortable side effects nausea, vomiting,

0:15:56.320 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 9>more severe cramping. So it's really just unnecessarily exposing ignant

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:05.120
<v Speaker 9>people to more discomfort and more severe side effects diarrhea, chills,

0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.880
<v Speaker 9>and intense nausea that could be avoided if first taking

0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 9>the mefa pristone tablet followed by a lower dose of missoprostle.

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to steal a question that Maddie actually had

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:17.360
<v Speaker 2>in our notes, and this is if you could testify,

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:19.800
<v Speaker 2>what would you want to tell Scotus about the impact

0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 2>of a move to ban something like the abortion pill,

0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.520
<v Speaker 2>Because I think it's just a smart, super smart question.

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:26.040
<v Speaker 10>Yeah.

0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:29.200
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, well, thankfully I am not on the spot there

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.280
<v Speaker 9>in krond of Scotis, but you know, I think as

0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:33.600
<v Speaker 9>a as a researcher, as a scientist, I think it's

0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:38.520
<v Speaker 9>really important to respect and acknowledge the science. And right

0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 9>now the evidence is unambiguous. We have more than one

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:45.400
<v Speaker 9>hundred rigorously conducted scientific studies from countries all over the

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.720
<v Speaker 9>world over the past three decades plus demonstrating the safety

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.880
<v Speaker 9>and effectiveness of mefa priystone for medication abortion. So this

0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 9>decision from Casmark in Texas was clearly ideological, ideologically motivated,

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.960
<v Speaker 9>and there's, like I said, rely no ambiguity around this.

0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.560
<v Speaker 10>I think it would be a real travesty to have the.

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:10.399
<v Speaker 9>Courts intervene with this independent agency's ability to approve and

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.399
<v Speaker 9>regulate medicines from the perspective of the science here in

0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 9>the US and.

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.360
<v Speaker 5>In like thirty seconds here, Are you concerned at all

0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.639
<v Speaker 5>about the implications this case could have for the FDA

0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:23.640
<v Speaker 5>moving forward at all?

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:26.080
<v Speaker 9>I mean, yes, I think this is a really dangerous

0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:31.600
<v Speaker 9>precedent to establish that a court and any entity could

0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:36.680
<v Speaker 9>bring a case against a drug maker against a specific

0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:40.080
<v Speaker 9>medicine that has gone through the rigorous vetting.

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.720
<v Speaker 10>Process that the FDA already has, that.

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:46.560
<v Speaker 9>Is genuinely effective and conservative and especially with a drug

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 9>like NIFA pristone that actually has a higher standard of

0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 9>safety and efficacy. So I think it would be really

0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.440
<v Speaker 9>dangerous for the courts to move in that direction.

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.399
<v Speaker 2>Well, so appreciate getting some time with you and just

0:17:56.480 --> 0:18:00.080
<v Speaker 2>laying it out from a scientific and medical perspective and

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:03.080
<v Speaker 2>understanding potentially the impact on Suzanne. Thank you so much,

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.920
<v Speaker 2>doctor Suzanne Bell. She's assistant professor in Population, Family and

0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.879
<v Speaker 2>Reproductive Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:13.040
<v Speaker 2>As you know, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of

0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.919
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Doctor Bell joining us via

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:17.880
<v Speaker 2>zoom from Baltimore.

0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.479
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Catch us

0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:26.640
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:33.200
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:36.440
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 2>Remember when every day it felt like we were talking about

0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:42.359
<v Speaker 2>another slew of companies going in public.

0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 3>I mean it's a really different environment.

0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:47.679
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it feels like those days are feeling foggier and foggier,

0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:50.560
<v Speaker 5>both on the IPO side and the SPACs side.

0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:53.159
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, absolutely right, and a lot of it is to

0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:55.359
<v Speaker 2>do with, you know, what's gone on in rates and

0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:57.840
<v Speaker 2>just a market that's a little bit more nervous. So

0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.720
<v Speaker 2>let's get to it. And I was looking at actually

0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.639
<v Speaker 2>the Renaissance IPO Index. It's up about fourteen percent year

0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:05.919
<v Speaker 2>to date, so that was kind of interesting despite some

0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:06.720
<v Speaker 2>of the hesitation.

0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:08.760
<v Speaker 3>So you want to get to the IPO market, let's

0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 3>get to it.

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:13.840
<v Speaker 5>We've got Rachel Garing Ey, America's IPO leader, joining us

0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:16.840
<v Speaker 5>on Zoom from Nashville, Tennessee. Rachel, thank you so much

0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.840
<v Speaker 5>for joining us. I know that EY recently released it's

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.960
<v Speaker 5>Global IPO Trends Report for the first quarter of twenty

0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:26.719
<v Speaker 5>twenty three. Broad Picture here. What's the headline from the report?

0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:29.919
<v Speaker 11>Well, you know, happy to be here and thank you

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:32.240
<v Speaker 11>for having me. And just as the two of you

0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:37.040
<v Speaker 11>are commenting a moment ago, definitely it's subdued out there,

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.320
<v Speaker 11>to say the least. We ended the quarter with thirty

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:45.119
<v Speaker 11>three IPOs in the US, raising roughly two and a

0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 11>half billion in proceeds. Another eleven companies have since come

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.640
<v Speaker 11>to market since the end of the quarter. So generally

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 11>we're in line with this time last year, but well

0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:59.720
<v Speaker 11>below levels we've seen in comparable periods over the past decade.

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 3>I feel like there's a lot of enthusiasm.

0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:03.600
<v Speaker 2>I feel like there I haven't I can't remember the

0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 2>last time there was anything in a conversation about, oh,

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.679
<v Speaker 2>we're looking forward to these companies going public. What's the

0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:11.160
<v Speaker 2>outlook rachel or what kind of visibility do you have

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:14.640
<v Speaker 2>about maybe what's coming, you know, in the later half

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:16.920
<v Speaker 2>of the year and maybe into twenty twenty four.

0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:21.040
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, you know, there, I would say there's definitely continued

0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:24.679
<v Speaker 11>strong interest from companies, so that the pipeline, the shadow

0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:29.240
<v Speaker 11>pipeline that is building, there's you know, points of optimism there.

0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:32.280
<v Speaker 11>But in terms of the immediate you know, coming into

0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 11>Q two, I'm not predicting a whole lot of additional

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:41.120
<v Speaker 11>activity just given the macroeconomic factors that is impacting all

0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.800
<v Speaker 11>companies out there, and it's going to continue. You mentioned

0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:50.440
<v Speaker 11>nervousness that's certainly still their lack of stability and so forth.

0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:54.879
<v Speaker 11>So companies are definitely in that wait and see waiting

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:57.520
<v Speaker 11>on the sidelines, waiting for the markets to reopen, but

0:20:57.600 --> 0:21:01.520
<v Speaker 11>certainly several companies out there who are readily preparing for

0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:02.360
<v Speaker 11>that opportunity.

0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:06.240
<v Speaker 5>So where where do you see the biggest, you know,

0:21:06.680 --> 0:21:09.680
<v Speaker 5>factor for optimism when it comes to the I p

0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:13.119
<v Speaker 5>O market? And when do you anticipate that optimism kicking

0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:13.600
<v Speaker 5>back in.

0:21:14.400 --> 0:21:17.760
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, great question, And I wouldn't say there's one single factor.

0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:22.679
<v Speaker 11>There's there's several factors that we are keeping a close

0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:28.880
<v Speaker 11>look and following closely. You know, inflation readings definitely one.

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:33.000
<v Speaker 11>Interest rate hikes is as you previously mentioned, and where

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:37.679
<v Speaker 11>the FED stands on interest rates. Market volatility, you know

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 11>that that's you know, been working in our favor. Frankly,

0:21:41.040 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 11>you know in Q one we had three days in

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:46.359
<v Speaker 11>the quarter where the VIX was over twenty five. You

0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:48.560
<v Speaker 11>know that's in that kind of no go zone, if

0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:52.000
<v Speaker 11>you will, Whereas you know, thirty days this time last

0:21:52.080 --> 0:21:55.200
<v Speaker 11>year with the VIX over twenty five. So there's promising

0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:58.399
<v Speaker 11>signs relative to volatility. But we still need, you know,

0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:03.679
<v Speaker 11>continued stability, their growth, stock performance needs to continue to

0:22:03.760 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 11>improve so that it starts attracting investors back to the

0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 11>IPO product.

0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:12.879
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's interesting. I wonder in terms of breaking it

0:22:12.880 --> 0:22:17.199
<v Speaker 2>down a little bit more, Either geographically or bisector. How

0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:18.000
<v Speaker 2>does that break out?

0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:22.399
<v Speaker 11>You know, right now, it's a lot of small numbers

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:25.160
<v Speaker 11>to be frank, I mean the you know, in terms

0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:27.760
<v Speaker 11>of volumes and then proceeds raised, you know, with those

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:31.760
<v Speaker 11>numbers I was sharing earlier, eight of those deals were

0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:34.840
<v Speaker 11>IPOs raising over fifty million, So that just gives you

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:37.880
<v Speaker 11>a context of the size of the deals happening right now,

0:22:38.000 --> 0:22:43.320
<v Speaker 11>very small. Fifteen of the deals were companies based in

0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:46.760
<v Speaker 11>the US, so large majority coming in from outside of

0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:53.040
<v Speaker 11>the US. So the deals right now are small. They

0:22:53.040 --> 0:22:55.520
<v Speaker 11>are led by, you know, continued to be led by

0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:58.760
<v Speaker 11>tech and life science sectors, but they're just not the

0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:04.080
<v Speaker 11>large deals that we're used to seeing. Seeing some optimism

0:23:04.119 --> 0:23:08.920
<v Speaker 11>and some uptick in the energy sector, industrials, consumer products.

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:12.960
<v Speaker 11>So it's you know, it's kind of across various sectors

0:23:13.000 --> 0:23:14.480
<v Speaker 11>that we're seeing the activity right now.

0:23:14.720 --> 0:23:16.919
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, well, Rachel, I was going to stick on the

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:21.000
<v Speaker 5>global question for a second because I'm just back from Dubai,

0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:23.760
<v Speaker 5>where every day there was a big story about IPOs

0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:25.639
<v Speaker 5>because you don't pay tax.

0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:26.000
<v Speaker 6>Is there.

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:29.160
<v Speaker 5>It's big on oil and there's a lot of opportunity

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:34.000
<v Speaker 5>and the interest rate environment is completely different. Are you seeing,

0:23:34.160 --> 0:23:38.120
<v Speaker 5>big picture and longer term that the IPO market turns

0:23:39.200 --> 0:23:43.359
<v Speaker 5>two countries like that, two cities like that, and out

0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:45.680
<v Speaker 5>of the US, where it's just a little bit more

0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:47.720
<v Speaker 5>volatile and there are more headwinds to deal with.

0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:52.199
<v Speaker 11>You know, despite the headwinds we're facing here in the US,

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:57.720
<v Speaker 11>it's still very much an attractive market. So the quietness

0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:01.119
<v Speaker 11>that we're seeing in the experiencing rates now, hopefully we

0:24:01.240 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 11>start to you know, see some of that unlocking and

0:24:04.880 --> 0:24:09.240
<v Speaker 11>more activity here in the US late this year is

0:24:09.960 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 11>our hope, certainly into twenty twenty four. In the meantime,

0:24:13.320 --> 0:24:16.280
<v Speaker 11>are we going to see some you know, promising deals

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:19.720
<v Speaker 11>outside of the US and some major markets. Absolutely, But

0:24:19.760 --> 0:24:23.720
<v Speaker 11>I don't think that's necessarily indicative of vout you know,

0:24:23.840 --> 0:24:26.800
<v Speaker 11>activity largely going away from the US long term.

0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:29.000
<v Speaker 2>I although, you know, it's you know, it's interesting. I

0:24:29.040 --> 0:24:31.240
<v Speaker 2>was just doing kind of an an i IPO search

0:24:31.280 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 2>on the Bloomberg and it looks like there's a fair

0:24:33.760 --> 0:24:34.600
<v Speaker 2>amount you know, of.

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:36.000
<v Speaker 3>Activity over in China.

0:24:36.119 --> 0:24:40.040
<v Speaker 2>I am curious, are we seeing you know, China certainly

0:24:40.119 --> 0:24:43.640
<v Speaker 2>pick up their momentum and is it possible that IPOs

0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:45.960
<v Speaker 2>we're going to see a lot more activity that aren't

0:24:46.200 --> 0:24:48.119
<v Speaker 2>you know, United States or US based.

0:24:48.880 --> 0:24:52.119
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, we will continue to see some promising deals outside

0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:57.920
<v Speaker 11>the US with ongoing kind of geopolitical tensions and regulatory

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:02.480
<v Speaker 11>moves so forth. I think we will see more deals

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.879
<v Speaker 11>in China. But again I expect our volume here in

0:25:06.920 --> 0:25:09.320
<v Speaker 11>the US to hopefully pick back up again. I think

0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:11.200
<v Speaker 11>it's late this year, though I don't know that it'll

0:25:11.200 --> 0:25:15.120
<v Speaker 11>be Q two, hopefully later in Q three into Q four,

0:25:15.160 --> 0:25:19.040
<v Speaker 11>and then certainly hopeful and optimistic about twenty twenty four.

0:25:19.240 --> 0:25:20.960
<v Speaker 2>All right, going to leave it on that note, Hey, Rachel,

0:25:20.960 --> 0:25:23.919
<v Speaker 2>thank you. Rachel Garing, IPO leader at EY Americas on

0:25:24.040 --> 0:25:26.600
<v Speaker 2>zoom from Nashville, Tennessee, and Madame just looking at the

0:25:26.880 --> 0:25:29.320
<v Speaker 2>terminal Ali Baba's grocery arm gearing up for a Hong

0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:33.520
<v Speaker 2>Kong ipo. You have a Chinese chip maker seeking an

0:25:33.560 --> 0:25:35.760
<v Speaker 2>IPO with a value of over fourteen and a half

0:25:35.800 --> 0:25:39.160
<v Speaker 2>billion that was earlier, that was overnight from Asia and

0:25:39.240 --> 0:25:42.840
<v Speaker 2>group IPO likely this year. One venture capital firm saying, so,

0:25:42.920 --> 0:25:45.320
<v Speaker 2>that's a lot of activity out of Asia. Yeah, and

0:25:45.359 --> 0:25:46.400
<v Speaker 2>I think it feels like it.

0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:50.800
<v Speaker 5>Well, it's such an important point that maybe investors and

0:25:51.040 --> 0:25:55.480
<v Speaker 5>companies and entrepreneurs are just leaning more global and seeing

0:25:55.480 --> 0:25:59.439
<v Speaker 5>more opportunity in places like China where you know, the

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:00.800
<v Speaker 5>environment is just different.

0:26:01.000 --> 0:26:03.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, exactly. So we'll see, we'll see whether or

0:26:03.480 --> 0:26:05.399
<v Speaker 2>not stuff starts to pick up in the US later on.

0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:08.160
<v Speaker 2>All right, you are listening and watching Bloomberg BusinessWeek right

0:26:08.160 --> 0:26:09.520
<v Speaker 2>here on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:11.480 --> 0:26:15.800
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

0:26:16.000 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:23.800
<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

0:26:23.840 --> 0:26:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.040
<v Speaker 2>So we're gonna talk a little bit about those born

0:26:33.119 --> 0:26:34.080
<v Speaker 2>old savings accounts.

0:26:34.119 --> 0:26:35.880
<v Speaker 3>We're gonna slow it down a little bit, everybody.

0:26:36.359 --> 0:26:39.040
<v Speaker 2>The new way show Bloomberg Business Week is out on newsstands.

0:26:39.040 --> 0:26:41.199
<v Speaker 3>This will all make sense in a moment. Be patient.

0:26:41.600 --> 0:26:44.400
<v Speaker 2>It's on newstands, online at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek,

0:26:44.400 --> 0:26:46.720
<v Speaker 2>and of course on the Bloomberg And we're talking about

0:26:46.720 --> 0:26:49.280
<v Speaker 2>this week's domestic covery, which is something that the big

0:26:49.320 --> 0:26:51.239
<v Speaker 2>bank CEOs over the past week or so have been

0:26:51.280 --> 0:26:54.480
<v Speaker 2>asked about paying up more on bank savings accounts, which

0:26:54.520 --> 0:26:58.520
<v Speaker 2>are increasingly looking pretty interesting. As a surgeon, interest rates

0:26:58.520 --> 0:27:00.320
<v Speaker 2>has weiged on some of the more speculative core owners

0:27:00.720 --> 0:27:03.000
<v Speaker 2>of financial markets. Let's get more on those stories. The

0:27:03.080 --> 0:27:06.840
<v Speaker 2>remarks in a new issue, and we get to of course,

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:10.199
<v Speaker 2>and it is the domestic cover. As I said earlier. Uh,

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:13.240
<v Speaker 2>the editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine, Joel Weber and Bloomberg

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:15.720
<v Speaker 2>Markets senior editor Mike Reigan both.

0:27:15.720 --> 0:27:17.159
<v Speaker 3>Actually Joe is at our studio.

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:21.160
<v Speaker 2>Mike is there on zoom from New Jersey. Joel, We're

0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:22.840
<v Speaker 2>you know, we constantly say we're living in there.

0:27:23.000 --> 0:27:25.919
<v Speaker 12>You're saving all your love forming us. It's a whit

0:27:26.000 --> 0:27:31.560
<v Speaker 12>the Houston favorite of mine. Yes, so we've been perhaps

0:27:31.600 --> 0:27:35.720
<v Speaker 12>you've noticed some offers from all over the place about

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:39.520
<v Speaker 12>how you can get four percent savings and Apple had

0:27:39.520 --> 0:27:44.760
<v Speaker 12>that news betterments out with four point three five. Mike,

0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:48.280
<v Speaker 12>do you remember when I could like invest in uh,

0:27:48.520 --> 0:27:53.400
<v Speaker 12>you know, like a MC or pictures of digital apes

0:27:53.640 --> 0:27:55.639
<v Speaker 12>and get rich really quickly. And it seems like the

0:27:55.680 --> 0:27:57.280
<v Speaker 12>exact opposite is the cell now.

0:27:58.480 --> 0:28:02.160
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, absolutely, And you know the fascinating thing is in

0:28:02.200 --> 0:28:06.080
<v Speaker 13>that sort of twelve thirteen years of rock bottom interest

0:28:06.160 --> 0:28:10.080
<v Speaker 13>rates after the financial crisis, the banks kind of trained

0:28:10.160 --> 0:28:13.720
<v Speaker 13>us all to forget about the whole notion of you know,

0:28:13.720 --> 0:28:16.680
<v Speaker 13>they're supposed to be paying us money to give them

0:28:16.800 --> 0:28:21.000
<v Speaker 13>our savings. It's really a fascinating, i think period in history,

0:28:21.080 --> 0:28:26.120
<v Speaker 13>really a historical because you know, never have interest rates

0:28:26.160 --> 0:28:28.520
<v Speaker 13>stayed that low for that long. And even when the

0:28:28.560 --> 0:28:32.520
<v Speaker 13>Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in twenty seventeen and

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:36.639
<v Speaker 13>twenty and eighteen, it was a very gradual, slow rise,

0:28:37.240 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 13>and the banks didn't exactly react quickly to it by

0:28:40.840 --> 0:28:43.040
<v Speaker 13>raising their own deposit rates, even though they were now

0:28:43.400 --> 0:28:46.080
<v Speaker 13>able to make a little bit more money, you know,

0:28:46.120 --> 0:28:47.280
<v Speaker 13>in the credit.

0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:48.640
<v Speaker 6>Markets and whatnot.

0:28:49.440 --> 0:28:52.520
<v Speaker 13>This time, it's a whole different scenario because that rise

0:28:52.520 --> 0:28:57.200
<v Speaker 13>from the Federal Reserve has been so aggressive, so rapid

0:28:57.240 --> 0:28:57.920
<v Speaker 13>that a.

0:28:57.840 --> 0:29:00.120
<v Speaker 6>Lot of banks have really reacted quickly to it.

0:29:01.240 --> 0:29:03.760
<v Speaker 13>And you know, as you pointed out, Apple, sort of

0:29:04.520 --> 0:29:07.560
<v Speaker 13>that news landed right as we were polishing off this story,

0:29:07.600 --> 0:29:08.640
<v Speaker 13>so it was good timing on that.

0:29:08.760 --> 0:29:13.400
<v Speaker 6>But the other fascinating thing is that not all banks

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:14.680
<v Speaker 6>have yet to do it.

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:17.840
<v Speaker 13>You know, you look at your basic savings account at

0:29:17.880 --> 0:29:21.360
<v Speaker 13>Chase or Bank of America, they're still at literally zero

0:29:21.480 --> 0:29:25.240
<v Speaker 13>point zero one percent on a savings account and there's

0:29:25.240 --> 0:29:27.000
<v Speaker 13>a variety of reasons for that. You know, they have

0:29:27.200 --> 0:29:30.200
<v Speaker 13>a lot of much more diverse business other sources of

0:29:30.240 --> 0:29:34.800
<v Speaker 13>funding than bank deposits. But that disparity is really fascinating,

0:29:34.840 --> 0:29:38.560
<v Speaker 13>you know, zero point zero one percent to some banks,

0:29:38.920 --> 0:29:42.680
<v Speaker 13>UFB Direct, a small online bank, offering above five percent,

0:29:42.880 --> 0:29:45.719
<v Speaker 13>and now Apple and Goldman getting into the business, offering

0:29:45.760 --> 0:29:50.120
<v Speaker 13>over four percent. So it's it's a very dramatic and

0:29:50.160 --> 0:29:54.960
<v Speaker 13>sort of newly competitive environment for banks to compete for

0:29:55.000 --> 0:29:57.280
<v Speaker 13>these deposits, like like they haven't really had to do

0:29:57.920 --> 0:30:00.800
<v Speaker 13>since before the global financial CRIS system in two thousand

0:30:00.800 --> 0:30:01.120
<v Speaker 13>and eight.

0:30:01.240 --> 0:30:02.000
<v Speaker 3>Mike, should they be?

0:30:02.080 --> 0:30:04.959
<v Speaker 2>And I guess I ask because, as you say, you know,

0:30:05.040 --> 0:30:07.840
<v Speaker 2>it's not the old fashioned bank of you know, taking

0:30:07.880 --> 0:30:11.360
<v Speaker 2>deposits and loan out to the neighborhood, you know, to

0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:13.480
<v Speaker 2>buy homes, to buy things, and so on and so forth.

0:30:14.520 --> 0:30:17.840
<v Speaker 2>The big banks today are much more complicated financial entities

0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:19.640
<v Speaker 2>and they have a lot of different ways to make money.

0:30:19.920 --> 0:30:22.840
<v Speaker 2>Do they care, maybe this is a naive question, do

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:26.320
<v Speaker 2>they care whether or not they have those individual customer deposits?

0:30:26.320 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 3>How important is that to a bank?

0:30:28.920 --> 0:30:30.680
<v Speaker 13>Well, you know, I think the bigger you get the

0:30:30.680 --> 0:30:35.280
<v Speaker 13>more diversified your businesses, the less pressure you're feeling, you know,

0:30:35.360 --> 0:30:37.320
<v Speaker 13>especially when you look at a bank like JP Morgan

0:30:37.400 --> 0:30:41.240
<v Speaker 13>Chase that saw I actually saw a flood of deposits

0:30:41.280 --> 0:30:43.960
<v Speaker 13>in the first quarter because of the concern about the

0:30:44.000 --> 0:30:46.920
<v Speaker 13>smaller regional banks. But the smaller you get, the more

0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:51.239
<v Speaker 13>you are closer to that standard banking model of you know,

0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:55.280
<v Speaker 13>borrowing low and lending high. I think the more pressure

0:30:55.320 --> 0:30:59.840
<v Speaker 13>you're feeling because the average consumer and businesses. Even more importantly,

0:31:00.000 --> 0:31:02.160
<v Speaker 13>I've woken up to this idea that there's a better

0:31:02.240 --> 0:31:04.800
<v Speaker 13>rate out there. Now it's finally worth my time and

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:07.200
<v Speaker 13>effort to sort of break up with my.

0:31:07.200 --> 0:31:08.280
<v Speaker 6>Bank, switch banks.

0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:12.360
<v Speaker 13>And the less I think many banks want to confront

0:31:12.400 --> 0:31:14.240
<v Speaker 13>right now is a drop in deposits.

0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:16.120
<v Speaker 6>I mean that ultimately.

0:31:15.880 --> 0:31:16.800
<v Speaker 12>Didn't go over well.

0:31:17.360 --> 0:31:19.120
<v Speaker 6>It didn't go over well. It didn't go over well

0:31:19.120 --> 0:31:20.080
<v Speaker 6>with Silicon Valley back.

0:31:20.120 --> 0:31:26.960
<v Speaker 13>Now that's obviously an exaggerated situation, but bank deposits in

0:31:27.120 --> 0:31:31.160
<v Speaker 13>aggregate all US commercial banks dropped last year for the

0:31:31.200 --> 0:31:35.440
<v Speaker 13>first time since like the nineteen forties, so that the

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:40.120
<v Speaker 13>competition is real and not all banks have raised their rates,

0:31:40.160 --> 0:31:42.040
<v Speaker 13>but I think there's more to come. You know, there's

0:31:42.280 --> 0:31:47.400
<v Speaker 13>this competition. It isn't over. There will be more banks

0:31:47.400 --> 0:31:49.880
<v Speaker 13>reacting raising rates, you know, if not to four or

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:54.520
<v Speaker 13>five percent. Certainly the era of rock bottom interest rates

0:31:54.520 --> 0:31:57.720
<v Speaker 13>on savings deposits, I think is really coming to a

0:31:57.720 --> 0:31:58.479
<v Speaker 13>pretty swift end.

0:31:58.560 --> 0:31:58.720
<v Speaker 1>You know.

0:31:58.760 --> 0:32:00.880
<v Speaker 12>The thing they have going for the though, is is

0:32:01.360 --> 0:32:01.880
<v Speaker 12>a inertia.

0:32:02.280 --> 0:32:02.480
<v Speaker 1>Mike.

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:06.800
<v Speaker 12>It's like really hard to pull out, you know, out

0:32:06.840 --> 0:32:11.480
<v Speaker 12>of a bank where you've been banking forever and maybe

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:14.520
<v Speaker 12>you've got all those auto payments set up and auto

0:32:14.640 --> 0:32:18.000
<v Speaker 12>checks and to like actually, you know, move from one

0:32:18.000 --> 0:32:21.760
<v Speaker 12>institution to another, even going after you know, bank rates

0:32:21.840 --> 0:32:24.600
<v Speaker 12>five point oh two percent. As great as that sound,

0:32:24.680 --> 0:32:27.400
<v Speaker 12>that's sheer thing. Like man, inertia is a hard thing

0:32:27.400 --> 0:32:30.400
<v Speaker 12>to overcome. So like, you know, what incentive do the

0:32:30.440 --> 0:32:32.680
<v Speaker 12>banks really have to do this?

0:32:32.960 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 3>I believe they call it stickiness?

0:32:34.640 --> 0:32:38.240
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, stickiness right, yeah, you know, and that's we're kind

0:32:38.240 --> 0:32:40.480
<v Speaker 13>of in that phase now where the inertia I think

0:32:40.600 --> 0:32:43.400
<v Speaker 13>is still a big thing. You know, say you have

0:32:43.520 --> 0:32:48.000
<v Speaker 13>ten thousand dollars in savings, if you're if you get

0:32:48.000 --> 0:32:50.520
<v Speaker 13>a five percent rate on that, you're talking about five

0:32:50.600 --> 0:32:52.840
<v Speaker 13>hundred bucks. So is it worth it for you for

0:32:52.920 --> 0:32:56.800
<v Speaker 13>five hundred bucks to really, uh, as you point out,

0:32:56.960 --> 0:33:00.840
<v Speaker 13>go through and take the effort and and possibly have

0:33:00.960 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 13>to rejigger all your automatic payments and stuff. But you know,

0:33:05.640 --> 0:33:08.960
<v Speaker 13>the higher that savings goes up, if you have, you know,

0:33:09.040 --> 0:33:11.080
<v Speaker 13>one hundred thousand dollars and all of a sudden you're

0:33:11.080 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 13>talking about five thousand dollars a year, well you know,

0:33:14.960 --> 0:33:15.880
<v Speaker 13>it might.

0:33:15.760 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 6>Be worth it. It's probably worth it.

0:33:16.880 --> 0:33:19.120
<v Speaker 13>And I think that's a calculation that a lot of

0:33:20.400 --> 0:33:23.600
<v Speaker 13>just average mom and pops are doing around the country

0:33:23.680 --> 0:33:25.720
<v Speaker 13>right now, and businesses as well well.

0:33:25.760 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 5>Also that five hundred dollars, as an investor would tell you,

0:33:28.440 --> 0:33:30.680
<v Speaker 5>if you put that back into your Schwab brokerage, that

0:33:30.720 --> 0:33:33.200
<v Speaker 5>could be a lot more in the decades to come.

0:33:33.280 --> 0:33:35.480
<v Speaker 5>But I want to ask you about how to suss

0:33:35.480 --> 0:33:38.280
<v Speaker 5>out these high old savings accounts. I get fed constant

0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:41.240
<v Speaker 5>ads about a variety of different high old savings accounts.

0:33:41.360 --> 0:33:43.520
<v Speaker 5>My friends and I are always having this discussion of

0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:44.640
<v Speaker 5>what to do with our savings.

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:46.720
<v Speaker 12>Do they look like the cover of Bloomberg Business Week,

0:33:46.760 --> 0:33:50.200
<v Speaker 12>which is the number four flexing with a six pack?

0:33:51.440 --> 0:33:51.880
<v Speaker 12>Very weird?

0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:55.360
<v Speaker 5>They look way less cool and way more sketchy, which

0:33:55.440 --> 0:33:58.200
<v Speaker 5>is why I'm concerned about me and my friends getting

0:33:58.240 --> 0:34:01.920
<v Speaker 5>scammed by non FDIC and SED high yield savings account.

0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:03.520
<v Speaker 5>Do you have any advice for us?

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:06.440
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, I mean I think you know, that's a great point. Obviously,

0:34:06.440 --> 0:34:10.800
<v Speaker 13>you make sure you're dealing with a FDIC insured bank,

0:34:10.840 --> 0:34:14.400
<v Speaker 13>which yeah, they all all the banks are more or

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:17.680
<v Speaker 13>less FDIIC insured now. But you know, I'm sure if

0:34:17.680 --> 0:34:20.319
<v Speaker 13>you start hard enough on the internet you'll find some

0:34:20.360 --> 0:34:24.920
<v Speaker 13>sketchy operators that aren't actually insured, you know, especially if

0:34:24.960 --> 0:34:28.000
<v Speaker 13>you're you know, dipping a tone of the crypto market

0:34:28.000 --> 0:34:30.120
<v Speaker 13>and that sort of thing. But you know, the other

0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:33.040
<v Speaker 13>important thing is, well, what is you know that FDIC

0:34:33.480 --> 0:34:36.560
<v Speaker 13>limit is two hundred and fifty thousand dollars, So if

0:34:36.600 --> 0:34:40.120
<v Speaker 13>you're talking about moving an amount of money greater than that,

0:34:40.200 --> 0:34:42.560
<v Speaker 13>you have to think about it a little bit harder,

0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:47.320
<v Speaker 13>and you know, perhaps split it up over a couple banks,

0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:50.360
<v Speaker 13>or go to a money market mutual fund, which isn't

0:34:50.480 --> 0:34:53.400
<v Speaker 13>fdi C in short, but they have a very strong

0:34:53.600 --> 0:34:57.280
<v Speaker 13>history of being pretty reliable. You know, I don't think

0:34:57.520 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 13>I could be wrong about this, but I don't think

0:34:59.040 --> 0:35:01.399
<v Speaker 13>a money market fund is I've actually failed in the US,

0:35:01.440 --> 0:35:04.520
<v Speaker 13>you know, the reserve on in the financial crisis, uh

0:35:04.719 --> 0:35:08.279
<v Speaker 13>broke the book reading you know, your assets dropped a

0:35:08.280 --> 0:35:12.560
<v Speaker 13>little bit, but you know, so, yeah, you got to

0:35:12.560 --> 0:35:13.200
<v Speaker 13>do your research.

0:35:13.200 --> 0:35:16.400
<v Speaker 6>And you know, some accounts require minimum balance, some don't.

0:35:16.920 --> 0:35:18.880
<v Speaker 13>If you're talking about a CD or what they call

0:35:19.000 --> 0:35:21.400
<v Speaker 13>time deposit, you might have to lock up your money

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.359
<v Speaker 13>for a year or two years something like that.

0:35:23.440 --> 0:35:25.839
<v Speaker 6>So you know, it's it's a good time to read

0:35:25.840 --> 0:35:26.759
<v Speaker 6>the fine print for once.

0:35:27.120 --> 0:35:27.359
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:35:27.719 --> 0:35:30.200
<v Speaker 12>It also just makes me think, like, I mean that

0:35:30.239 --> 0:35:33.520
<v Speaker 12>fine print, like is there is there some fine print

0:35:33.520 --> 0:35:35.560
<v Speaker 12>that we haven't thought about for a while even, you know,

0:35:35.640 --> 0:35:38.640
<v Speaker 12>and I'm like, there's there's basis points with some of

0:35:38.680 --> 0:35:42.200
<v Speaker 12>this stuff, Like so is there you know when the

0:35:42.440 --> 0:35:45.560
<v Speaker 12>when the Reagan family sits down and assesses their options,

0:35:45.640 --> 0:35:47.360
<v Speaker 12>you know what, what are you just going straight for

0:35:47.440 --> 0:35:51.480
<v Speaker 12>the north of five percent, Mike, or are you somewhere

0:35:51.520 --> 0:35:52.520
<v Speaker 12>north south of that?

0:35:53.520 --> 0:35:53.800
<v Speaker 6>Well?

0:35:54.200 --> 0:35:57.360
<v Speaker 13>I think what's fascinating to me is that there is

0:35:57.400 --> 0:36:01.319
<v Speaker 13>this skepticism and this you know, it's too good to

0:36:01.320 --> 0:36:06.080
<v Speaker 13>be true mentality towards towards a four percent savings rate.

0:36:06.120 --> 0:36:09.480
<v Speaker 13>When you know, I'm dating myself here a little bit,

0:36:09.480 --> 0:36:11.759
<v Speaker 13>but you know, I remember back in the eighties. I mean,

0:36:12.239 --> 0:36:14.480
<v Speaker 13>you know, you expected to get paid on your deposits,

0:36:14.520 --> 0:36:16.239
<v Speaker 13>you know, and you shocked around.

0:36:15.960 --> 0:36:18.000
<v Speaker 6>And found that best that best yield.

0:36:18.080 --> 0:36:20.560
<v Speaker 13>I remember taking my nickels and dimes from the paper

0:36:20.640 --> 0:36:22.480
<v Speaker 13>route and put them in the bank, knowing I, you know,

0:36:22.640 --> 0:36:25.200
<v Speaker 13>I'd get a nice yield on it. So a little

0:36:25.239 --> 0:36:28.960
<v Speaker 13>skepticism is healthy. But I think in the sort of

0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:33.800
<v Speaker 13>spectrum of investments bank savings account, you know, I would.

0:36:33.640 --> 0:36:36.640
<v Speaker 12>Is as boring as it gets, is as boring and.

0:36:36.680 --> 0:36:38.400
<v Speaker 6>Probably as safe as it gets.

0:36:38.719 --> 0:36:41.680
<v Speaker 13>Granted, you know, if you're under that fd i C limit,

0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:44.640
<v Speaker 13>especially that two hundred and fifty thousand dollars limit, now

0:36:44.680 --> 0:36:48.080
<v Speaker 13>there is there there was sort of this paranoia that

0:36:48.320 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 13>erupted when SVB and the other two went under that you.

0:36:51.920 --> 0:36:54.560
<v Speaker 6>Know, the the fd i C might.

0:36:54.400 --> 0:36:56.759
<v Speaker 13>Not have enough money in its own accounts to cover

0:36:58.239 --> 0:37:01.319
<v Speaker 13>to ensure the deposits. If if the dominoes keep falling

0:37:01.440 --> 0:37:03.439
<v Speaker 13>and enough banks go under.

0:37:03.480 --> 0:37:05.920
<v Speaker 6>I think that's subsided.

0:37:05.360 --> 0:37:08.319
<v Speaker 13>A little bit just because of the programs that have

0:37:08.360 --> 0:37:09.560
<v Speaker 13>been put in place, and.

0:37:09.560 --> 0:37:13.600
<v Speaker 6>Also to me, I think, you know, the FDIC.

0:37:13.480 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 13>Is such an important institution to this country that even

0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:20.160
<v Speaker 13>though we have this you know, pro wrestling version of

0:37:20.200 --> 0:37:23.480
<v Speaker 13>politics going on right now, where you know, anything could happen.

0:37:23.520 --> 0:37:26.520
<v Speaker 13>We might default on tragedies in a few months. I

0:37:26.600 --> 0:37:29.319
<v Speaker 13>think that FDIC is so important that it would, you know,

0:37:29.360 --> 0:37:32.920
<v Speaker 13>if it were to not live up to its obligations,

0:37:32.960 --> 0:37:35.280
<v Speaker 13>that the damage on both sides of the political aisle

0:37:35.320 --> 0:37:38.239
<v Speaker 13>would be so great that they actually would, you know, do.

0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:40.520
<v Speaker 6>What it takes to keep it afloat. So I think,

0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:42.400
<v Speaker 6>you know, we.

0:37:42.480 --> 0:37:44.600
<v Speaker 3>Talk about a crisis of confidence if that.

0:37:44.640 --> 0:37:48.720
<v Speaker 14>Happened, absolutely absolutely yeah, And I you know, knock on wood,

0:37:48.880 --> 0:37:51.279
<v Speaker 14>and I you know, I hope I'm not proved wrong

0:37:51.320 --> 0:37:53.359
<v Speaker 14>about that, but I think, you know, it is such

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:58.040
<v Speaker 14>a you know, important bedrock of the entire US financial

0:37:58.040 --> 0:38:01.640
<v Speaker 14>system that even in the toxic political environment we're in

0:38:01.760 --> 0:38:03.279
<v Speaker 14>right now, I think they'd find a way to to

0:38:03.640 --> 0:38:04.680
<v Speaker 14>to keep it going.

0:38:04.760 --> 0:38:09.320
<v Speaker 12>Okay, So if it's point zero one percent on basic

0:38:09.400 --> 0:38:14.160
<v Speaker 12>savings deposits at Bank, Bank of America or or Chase,

0:38:14.320 --> 0:38:16.879
<v Speaker 12>you know, like Mike Wake, what what's it gonna be?

0:38:17.280 --> 0:38:19.600
<v Speaker 12>Is it gonna go point zero five or are they

0:38:19.600 --> 0:38:22.880
<v Speaker 12>going to go to you know, zero point one?

0:38:23.080 --> 0:38:26.440
<v Speaker 13>I you know, I think right now the CEOs that

0:38:26.520 --> 0:38:29.960
<v Speaker 13>those banks are kind of sussing out exactly what they're

0:38:29.960 --> 0:38:32.560
<v Speaker 13>gonna have to do, because you.

0:38:32.480 --> 0:38:34.360
<v Speaker 6>Know, for one thing that the one big.

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:38.840
<v Speaker 13>Competition for banks is money market mutual funds, right, because

0:38:38.840 --> 0:38:41.759
<v Speaker 13>they're they invest in short term securities, they're able to

0:38:41.800 --> 0:38:44.640
<v Speaker 13>be much more nimbler in raising and lowering rates.

0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:48.040
<v Speaker 6>As need be. You know, uh, JP Morgan's got money

0:38:48.080 --> 0:38:48.640
<v Speaker 6>market funds.

0:38:48.680 --> 0:38:50.960
<v Speaker 13>Most of your big banks have these, So if they're

0:38:51.680 --> 0:38:54.000
<v Speaker 13>leaving deposits on one side of the business, but they're

0:38:54.000 --> 0:38:56.920
<v Speaker 13>going into the the other side, it's not as acute

0:38:56.960 --> 0:39:00.719
<v Speaker 13>of an issue as you're smaller, more traditional that really

0:39:00.760 --> 0:39:04.240
<v Speaker 13>needs that traditional savings deposit. So you know, I think

0:39:04.480 --> 0:39:06.760
<v Speaker 13>I think the pressure is going to be much greater

0:39:07.440 --> 0:39:12.359
<v Speaker 13>on the more simpler, uh you know, right, borrow, borrow low,

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:15.000
<v Speaker 13>and lend high type of banks then the more diversified

0:39:15.120 --> 0:39:16.720
<v Speaker 13>sort of financial supermarket banks.

0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:19.040
<v Speaker 2>Although you know, we did see that headline on the

0:39:19.040 --> 0:39:21.759
<v Speaker 2>Blueberg money market funds have the biggest weekly outflow since

0:39:21.800 --> 0:39:25.200
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty from the Investment Company Institute. So yeah, no,

0:39:25.360 --> 0:39:27.400
<v Speaker 2>but I mean banks maybe getting squeezed. You know what

0:39:27.440 --> 0:39:29.239
<v Speaker 2>I really want to know, Mike, did you pose for

0:39:29.280 --> 0:39:31.920
<v Speaker 2>the cover story that stroll?

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:37.360
<v Speaker 12>I think you didn't recognize the apps not mine us.

0:39:36.960 --> 0:39:40.080
<v Speaker 6>Going through a men's health phase cover design.

0:39:40.200 --> 0:39:44.280
<v Speaker 12>There there were many versions of that cover that existed

0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:46.200
<v Speaker 12>before we got to that one, and I'm just so

0:39:46.280 --> 0:39:48.839
<v Speaker 12>glad that it became weirder than where we were, because

0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:50.319
<v Speaker 12>it was pretty weird, and then it got.

0:39:50.360 --> 0:39:52.840
<v Speaker 3>Even Weirderam like, what is it?

0:39:52.960 --> 0:39:53.200
<v Speaker 6>Text?

0:39:53.840 --> 0:39:56.399
<v Speaker 12>You just don't Sometimes there's just questions that you don't

0:39:56.400 --> 0:39:57.320
<v Speaker 12>want to know the answer to you.

0:39:57.480 --> 0:40:01.960
<v Speaker 13>But he skipped right from a ment health inspiration to

0:40:02.120 --> 0:40:03.920
<v Speaker 13>Crack magazine in.

0:40:03.880 --> 0:40:07.120
<v Speaker 3>The Business Week After Dark podcast. Catch it on your podcast.

0:40:07.440 --> 0:40:09.600
<v Speaker 12>You look too closely at the apps, it just gets

0:40:09.719 --> 0:40:11.320
<v Speaker 12>your life gets really weird really quickly.

0:40:11.520 --> 0:40:12.080
<v Speaker 3>Oh my god.

0:40:12.160 --> 0:40:15.319
<v Speaker 8>All right, all right, guys, thank you so much. It

0:40:15.400 --> 0:40:17.920
<v Speaker 8>is the domestic cover story Bloomberg Business Week, which is

0:40:17.960 --> 0:40:20.920
<v Speaker 8>add on newsstands, online at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek

0:40:20.920 --> 0:40:22.880
<v Speaker 8>and of course on the Bloomberg Mike Reagan, thank you

0:40:22.920 --> 0:40:25.600
<v Speaker 8>so much, Senior editor, lead blogger for the Bloomberg Markets

0:40:25.600 --> 0:40:26.120
<v Speaker 8>Live blog.

0:40:26.440 --> 0:40:27.600
<v Speaker 3>I zoom from New Jersey.

0:40:27.680 --> 0:40:29.600
<v Speaker 8>Joe Webber, of course, the editor Bloomberg Business Week.

0:40:29.600 --> 0:40:31.600
<v Speaker 3>Are you really on some kind of health wellness.

0:40:31.160 --> 0:40:36.680
<v Speaker 12>Fixs Uh sure, sure, I mean I work out. I'm

0:40:36.800 --> 0:40:38.680
<v Speaker 12>intermittent fasting sometimes, you know, it's.

0:40:38.560 --> 0:40:43.280
<v Speaker 3>All true, a little fasting. All right, you are listening

0:40:43.320 --> 0:40:44.919
<v Speaker 3>and watching Bloomberg Business.

0:40:44.560 --> 0:40:48.600
<v Speaker 8>Week, brom.

0:40:50.280 --> 0:40:50.760
<v Speaker 1>Journal.

0:40:51.800 --> 0:40:52.759
<v Speaker 10>How about you let me drive?

0:40:53.040 --> 0:41:01.040
<v Speaker 14>Oh no, no, no, please, Grave, I want to try.

0:41:02.560 --> 0:41:04.439
<v Speaker 3>It's a good question, good time.

0:41:07.239 --> 0:41:10.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes for me. Think

0:41:10.600 --> 0:41:13.640
<v Speaker 1>well By on Bloomberg Radio.

0:41:13.840 --> 0:41:15.720
<v Speaker 2>Kind of see it feels like we're watching the markets

0:41:15.719 --> 0:41:16.640
<v Speaker 2>a little bit in slow.

0:41:16.440 --> 0:41:19.879
<v Speaker 3>Motion today, right, Like what is happening? I don't know,

0:41:19.960 --> 0:41:21.160
<v Speaker 3>it's really kind of a weird.

0:41:21.160 --> 0:41:23.480
<v Speaker 2>Maybe it's just that marking time, you know, marking time

0:41:23.560 --> 0:41:25.040
<v Speaker 2>until we get the next fad decision.

0:41:25.520 --> 0:41:27.000
<v Speaker 3>Here's what our next guest has to say.

0:41:27.000 --> 0:41:30.239
<v Speaker 2>We are folks just about seventeen minutes away from the

0:41:30.239 --> 0:41:30.799
<v Speaker 2>closing bell.

0:41:30.880 --> 0:41:32.240
<v Speaker 3>Stocks just off their loads.

0:41:32.000 --> 0:41:33.759
<v Speaker 2>Of the session, as you heard from Charlie, but tech

0:41:34.360 --> 0:41:37.680
<v Speaker 2>really thanks to Tesla probably taking the biggest hit time

0:41:37.719 --> 0:41:39.879
<v Speaker 2>for the drive to the close. Marion Bartel's is back

0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:43.520
<v Speaker 2>with us, chief investment strategist and managing director at Sanctuary Wealth,

0:41:43.719 --> 0:41:46.719
<v Speaker 2>a financial platform for investment advisors. She joins us once

0:41:46.719 --> 0:41:49.080
<v Speaker 2>again on Zoom and Nayak, New York.

0:41:49.120 --> 0:41:49.920
<v Speaker 3>Marion, good to.

0:41:49.920 --> 0:41:53.480
<v Speaker 2>Have you back with us. It is an interesting market environment,

0:41:53.520 --> 0:41:55.720
<v Speaker 2>and we've seen some tight ranges, certainly on the equity

0:41:55.800 --> 0:41:58.359
<v Speaker 2>side of things.

0:41:58.400 --> 0:42:01.880
<v Speaker 3>You know, what to use seems to kind of have

0:42:01.960 --> 0:42:02.960
<v Speaker 3>it right, is it?

0:42:03.000 --> 0:42:05.919
<v Speaker 2>What the equity market is maybe showing some debate about

0:42:05.920 --> 0:42:09.359
<v Speaker 2>what comes next or the treasury trade. I'm curious how

0:42:09.400 --> 0:42:09.880
<v Speaker 2>you see it.

0:42:11.280 --> 0:42:13.759
<v Speaker 15>Thank you so much for having me back out. Yes,

0:42:13.880 --> 0:42:16.719
<v Speaker 15>you're absolutely correct. The market has really been range bound,

0:42:16.840 --> 0:42:20.000
<v Speaker 15>and you know, and those are frustrating markets because it

0:42:20.239 --> 0:42:23.480
<v Speaker 15>really doesn't feel like a trend. Although technically we're slightly

0:42:23.520 --> 0:42:26.920
<v Speaker 15>in an upward bias. So the range has been forty

0:42:26.960 --> 0:42:29.200
<v Speaker 15>two hundred on the high end. We haven't been able

0:42:29.239 --> 0:42:31.799
<v Speaker 15>to break above that, and I would say there's good

0:42:31.800 --> 0:42:37.080
<v Speaker 15>support around thirty eight hundred. I would say very short term,

0:42:37.200 --> 0:42:39.759
<v Speaker 15>the technical indicators are saying that we can get a

0:42:39.760 --> 0:42:43.759
<v Speaker 15>pullback here, and you're seeing that happen today. But when

0:42:43.760 --> 0:42:47.279
<v Speaker 15>we look at the technical indicators longer term, meaning more

0:42:47.400 --> 0:42:50.440
<v Speaker 15>monthly type of price amount of indicators, we're actually getting

0:42:50.520 --> 0:42:55.560
<v Speaker 15>buy signals. So we think these pullbacks a great opportunity

0:42:55.640 --> 0:43:00.160
<v Speaker 15>to buy. And what's really probably allowing the market to

0:43:00.200 --> 0:43:03.520
<v Speaker 15>have a bias to the upside and why with all

0:43:04.120 --> 0:43:07.200
<v Speaker 15>what seemed to be the negatives like corporate profits peaking,

0:43:09.520 --> 0:43:14.839
<v Speaker 15>margins peaking, you know, interest rates up, really high risk

0:43:14.920 --> 0:43:17.080
<v Speaker 15>of a recession. Although we've been talking about that a

0:43:17.120 --> 0:43:20.600
<v Speaker 15>long time, is it seems that investors are positioned for

0:43:20.680 --> 0:43:26.439
<v Speaker 15>that very defensive a lot of cash on the sidelines.

0:43:27.000 --> 0:43:29.680
<v Speaker 15>And when we look at fast money or you know,

0:43:30.400 --> 0:43:34.920
<v Speaker 15>traders like hedge funds, they're positioned very short the market.

0:43:34.920 --> 0:43:38.200
<v Speaker 15>They're already short, so which I think we have a

0:43:38.400 --> 0:43:42.239
<v Speaker 15>floor here on the market, and I think that over

0:43:42.320 --> 0:43:44.560
<v Speaker 15>time we're going to have a bias to the upside.

0:43:44.920 --> 0:43:47.760
<v Speaker 15>But you're going to have to break above that forty

0:43:47.800 --> 0:43:51.920
<v Speaker 15>two hundred to get all this negative positioning in a

0:43:51.960 --> 0:43:53.719
<v Speaker 15>more positive light.

0:43:54.000 --> 0:43:56.680
<v Speaker 2>So, Mary, when you say technical indicators longer term on

0:43:56.719 --> 0:43:58.840
<v Speaker 2>a monthly basis, signals to buyas it some of the

0:43:58.880 --> 0:44:01.520
<v Speaker 2>things you just talked about in terms of trader shirt

0:44:01.520 --> 0:44:03.319
<v Speaker 2>at the market, cash on the SILD, I'm curious the

0:44:03.320 --> 0:44:05.120
<v Speaker 2>specifics of what you were seeing technically.

0:44:05.719 --> 0:44:08.719
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, so if you use one of my favorite indicators

0:44:08.800 --> 0:44:14.120
<v Speaker 15>is called the stochastic, and we did a fourteen month stochastic.

0:44:14.239 --> 0:44:18.000
<v Speaker 15>We've actually been watching it since December expecting a buy

0:44:18.120 --> 0:44:21.120
<v Speaker 15>signal this year and sure enough, we've gotten a by signal.

0:44:21.440 --> 0:44:25.040
<v Speaker 15>Now there's been other indicators that are not as well known.

0:44:25.560 --> 0:44:28.920
<v Speaker 15>One is called copic and again that's a price momentum

0:44:29.040 --> 0:44:35.359
<v Speaker 15>type of indicator, and one was developed by Marty Swig. Yeah,

0:44:35.440 --> 0:44:38.400
<v Speaker 15>he was very famous for calling the crash in nineteen

0:44:38.480 --> 0:44:42.680
<v Speaker 15>eighty seven. Unfortunately he's not with us anymore, but he

0:44:42.880 --> 0:44:47.200
<v Speaker 15>developed this indicator that's called the Swig breath or the

0:44:47.239 --> 0:44:53.280
<v Speaker 15>Swig thrust breast breath indicator, and that's based on being

0:44:53.560 --> 0:44:56.479
<v Speaker 15>very over sold and in a short period of time

0:44:56.560 --> 0:45:01.200
<v Speaker 15>getting very overbought. And we don't get these sig very often.

0:45:01.760 --> 0:45:06.000
<v Speaker 15>Now they're kind of mixed on their tactical reading. But

0:45:06.239 --> 0:45:09.839
<v Speaker 15>in the last six readings that we've had from the indicator,

0:45:10.680 --> 0:45:14.040
<v Speaker 15>the market was higher twelve months later. So we really

0:45:14.080 --> 0:45:17.640
<v Speaker 15>are starting to see some of the indicators go very

0:45:17.719 --> 0:45:20.640
<v Speaker 15>bullish the market, although they're not getting a lot of press.

0:45:21.320 --> 0:45:24.040
<v Speaker 5>Do you think that earnings are going to support that

0:45:24.120 --> 0:45:25.320
<v Speaker 5>idea moving forward?

0:45:26.320 --> 0:45:27.920
<v Speaker 10>So that's the problem.

0:45:28.040 --> 0:45:31.560
<v Speaker 15>We don't have the earnings or at least we feel

0:45:31.600 --> 0:45:35.759
<v Speaker 15>that we're in a corporate profits recession. But again, as

0:45:35.840 --> 0:45:41.160
<v Speaker 15>I said, everyone's positioned that way and markets get locked

0:45:41.160 --> 0:45:44.120
<v Speaker 15>and especially have a floor to the downside when you

0:45:44.280 --> 0:45:47.920
<v Speaker 15>have positioning so bearish. So what I think has to

0:45:47.960 --> 0:45:50.640
<v Speaker 15>happen is you have to flush out the market. The

0:45:50.680 --> 0:45:52.719
<v Speaker 15>only way you're going to do that is by going up,

0:45:53.080 --> 0:45:57.520
<v Speaker 15>forcing everybody in, and then resetting the market, and then

0:45:57.600 --> 0:46:00.960
<v Speaker 15>we'll see where we go. That's that's what I think

0:46:01.040 --> 0:46:03.359
<v Speaker 15>is the risk to the market. I think the risk

0:46:03.480 --> 0:46:04.440
<v Speaker 15>is to the upside.

0:46:04.960 --> 0:46:06.640
<v Speaker 3>That's interesting. What do you make of the VIX? Do

0:46:06.680 --> 0:46:07.319
<v Speaker 3>you care about it?

0:46:07.360 --> 0:46:09.719
<v Speaker 2>The volatility index it's now a little bit it's a

0:46:09.760 --> 0:46:12.160
<v Speaker 2>little bit about seventeen, but it's really.

0:46:12.080 --> 0:46:14.160
<v Speaker 3>It had been moving down pretty substantially.

0:46:14.920 --> 0:46:17.520
<v Speaker 15>It has, and it kind of technically broke down.

0:46:17.640 --> 0:46:17.799
<v Speaker 10>Now.

0:46:17.840 --> 0:46:21.960
<v Speaker 15>I've heard some derivatives traders say that the VIX, the

0:46:21.960 --> 0:46:25.560
<v Speaker 15>way it's calculated and how it's being used in trading

0:46:26.239 --> 0:46:29.279
<v Speaker 15>is not as informative. But I still like to look

0:46:29.280 --> 0:46:32.360
<v Speaker 15>at it, and it's technically broken down and it's actually

0:46:32.840 --> 0:46:34.920
<v Speaker 15>signaling the opposite of what the market is doing. You

0:46:34.960 --> 0:46:37.640
<v Speaker 15>would think with the VIX going down, the market would

0:46:37.640 --> 0:46:41.279
<v Speaker 15>be going up, and the opposite is actually happening. It

0:46:41.320 --> 0:46:44.840
<v Speaker 15>is maybe possible that the VIX continues to go down

0:46:45.800 --> 0:46:50.400
<v Speaker 15>and we're in this trading range type of environment. But

0:46:50.560 --> 0:46:53.360
<v Speaker 15>I would say that there is a there's some confusion

0:46:53.400 --> 0:46:54.680
<v Speaker 15>in the behavior of the vix.

0:46:55.080 --> 0:46:58.680
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's confusing to me that they're like dislocating, and

0:46:58.920 --> 0:47:00.080
<v Speaker 5>I don't know what to make of that. And I

0:47:00.120 --> 0:47:01.560
<v Speaker 5>also don't know what to make of a lot of

0:47:01.600 --> 0:47:04.279
<v Speaker 5>the dislocation that we're seeing in the market right now.

0:47:04.719 --> 0:47:06.960
<v Speaker 5>Really quickly, I want to ask you about something our

0:47:06.960 --> 0:47:09.680
<v Speaker 5>market's reporter told us earlier, saying that markets may have

0:47:09.760 --> 0:47:13.279
<v Speaker 5>already priced in, that we're past a recession that had

0:47:13.280 --> 0:47:15.319
<v Speaker 5>already happened, and we're breaking out to the upside. Do

0:47:15.360 --> 0:47:16.120
<v Speaker 5>you agree with that.

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<v Speaker 15>I don't think we've priced in a recession, although I

0:47:19.760 --> 0:47:22.240
<v Speaker 15>think positioning has priced in a recession.

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<v Speaker 10>Okay, so that's different.

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<v Speaker 15>I don't think the market has, but I think investors

0:47:27.000 --> 0:47:27.839
<v Speaker 15>have priced that in.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, What about on a technical basis? One more question, Marian,

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<v Speaker 2>is that is there when you look at the technicals

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<v Speaker 2>of various sectors within the broader market, what is there

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<v Speaker 2>any that are saying here's a really good opportunity, really

0:47:40.560 --> 0:47:41.319
<v Speaker 2>signaling a buye.

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<v Speaker 15>So there's obviously there's a lot of different ways to

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<v Speaker 15>look at technicals. CARC Yeah, I've been very bullish semiconductors.

0:47:51.200 --> 0:47:54.439
<v Speaker 15>I still have a cyclical bias. I still like aerospace

0:47:54.480 --> 0:47:57.399
<v Speaker 15>and defense, but I want to balance that out with

0:47:57.560 --> 0:48:03.200
<v Speaker 15>more defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities. So I think

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<v Speaker 15>in a trading range market, you want a little bit

0:48:05.480 --> 0:48:05.880
<v Speaker 15>of both.

0:48:06.520 --> 0:48:09.040
<v Speaker 2>All right, That makes sense, Kate, so great to check

0:48:09.080 --> 0:48:09.319
<v Speaker 2>in with.

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<v Speaker 3>You have a great weekend. Marian Bartel.

0:48:12.160 --> 0:48:15.800
<v Speaker 2>She's chief investment strategist managing director over at Sanctuary Wealth.

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<v Speaker 2>Joining us via zoom from Nyack.

0:48:18.280 --> 0:48:18.799
<v Speaker 3>New York.

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0:48:27.160 --> 0:48:30.719
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