WEBVTT - Biden Should Reverse China Tariff Fiasco: HFE's Weinberg 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEO, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.400 and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, we are likely to 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:25.880 have a new administration in very soon. The questions abound. 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.840 One of them is how would this new administration deal 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:32.520 with China, particularly the economic challenges with China. Nobody better 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:35.880 to have that discussion than Carl Weinberg, founder and chief 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:39.040 international economist at High Frequency Economics. Carl, thanks so much 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:43.479 for joining us here. It's been a rough, bumpy four years, 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:45.760 to say the very least between the US and China 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:48.320 as it relates to trade. How do you think things 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:52.640 will be different with a Biden administration? Well, that is 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:56.520 the question of the day, and I personally am looking 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.520 forward to see what's kind of a team UH President 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:03.240 Elect Biden puts together at the U s Special Trade 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.200 Representatives Office to give us some guidance as to how 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:09.640 this is going to go. The tariffs have not worked 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:14.000 they haven't reduced China's trade surplus with the United States 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.680 in any measurable way. Since they've come on board. China's 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.480 increased its exports to the United States by six and 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:25.120 it's imports are up only eleven point eight percent um. 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:29.000 That's not a winning strategy, and it's a tax on Americans. 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:32.759 Tariffs are one of the few tax areas president elect 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:38.160 a President Biden could reduce on US taxpayers without having 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.680 to go through Congress. So there's a lot of potential there, 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.160 But of course we don't want to be backing away 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.760 from the critical issues of differences that we have with China. 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.800 A sharp guy at the trade representatives, if you took 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:51.920 President Trump out of the picture and the last four years, 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:53.919 we could just, you know, erase that for the moment. 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.680 What would a Biden plan towards China be. It feels 0:01:57.720 --> 0:01:59.920 like maybe he has to be a little bit more 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:04.160 inviting to China given the last four years, but if 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:08.080 that hadn't happened, he could be a lot tougher on China. Yeah, 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:11.080 well absolutely, I mean he's certainly a lot tougher on 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.880 China now than he was when he was vice president. 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:16.760 And of course the playing field has changed a lot. 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:19.640 It's more than just economic issues that separate us. We 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:22.560 have human rights issues. We have Hong Kong on the table. 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.000 Just within the last twenty four hours forty eight hours, 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:28.560 we've seen China make moves to impose its rule on 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:32.680 Hong Kong, which the US can't accept. We've got Taiwan issues, 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.280 We've got India issues, We've got all kinds of human 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.760 rights issues. So, um, it's not just a simple matter 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:42.760 of commercial tariffs to achieve commercial goals. So the tricky 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.639 part here is going to be to back down, I think, 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:49.239 on the tariffs, but at the same time, to find 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:53.520 ways to put pressure on China, perhaps through non economic 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:56.480 ways or through economic ways, to try to achieve and 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:58.920 to maintain our belief in some of these other goals. 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.520 So says it sounds like from what we can see 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:08.120 that China is getting back to work, that their economy, Um, 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:10.200 they've seen the worst of it as it relates to COVID. 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:12.400 What do you know about the economy in China and 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:17.679 how that may influence kind of their negotiating posture. Yeah, 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:22.320 so China's economy is growing. They seem to have contained 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:26.000 the coronavirus better than we have there. There's no sign 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:30.079 of a second wave of outbreaks over there. Whatever outbreaks 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:33.160 we've seen have been contained in clusters rather than becoming 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.880 community spread, and the numbers are quite low. And as 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:39.080 a result, their economy is growing. At the same time, 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.920 they're increasing their exports for the rest of the world 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:45.600 because they can, because they're at work and they're producing stuff, 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:49.400 and they're being aggressive in terms of getting their merchandise 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:52.680 out there. So we're seeing their export revenues go up, 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:56.480 and we're also seeing them we deploy those export revenues 0:03:56.520 --> 0:04:00.520 into direct investment in other countries, building up their silk 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:05.960 roots and making direct support and aid investments in other countries, 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.720 sometimes against the wishes of the United States, like in Iran, 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:15.240 and that's helping them promote their economic agenda and project 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:19.160 their economic and diplomatic power around the world. They're taking 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.760 good advantage of their advances and their their windfall on 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:27.039 public health. Yeah, speaking of which, Carl, how is the 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.599 U s economy these days? We we just got poor 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.960 confidence data this morning, and and poor inflation data this 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.839 week too. Yeah, well, Ronnie, you don't need me to 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.440 tell you that we're in for a rough time here. 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.520 You know. J Powell said it yesterday at the Virtual 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.720 ECB Confidence and everybody who talks about the U. S 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:48.080 economy tells the same story, and they're all right, the 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:53.200 coronavirus outbreak that we're currently experiencing is debilitating. It not 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.160 only causes us to lock down our enterprises, but it 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:59.480 forces enterprises that are in lockdown to shut down as 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.719 infection spread. This is going to be a loss of production. 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.560 We're in for a really, really dark fourth quarter of 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:09.040 this year. Carl, what do you make just broadly defined 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:13.880 of a Biden administration, a Democratic House and I'm sorry 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.960 at a Democratic House and a Republican controlled Senate. What 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:19.800 does that mean do you think for economic policy over 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.680 the next several years. Well, if that's the way it 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:24.760 works out, and as you know, the Senator is still 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:27.520 a programs. We still have to by elections in Georgia. 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.520 But assuming that the Republicans keep the House, that's gonna 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:35.040 sty me Biden's efforts to pump stimulus into the economy. 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:38.920 The Republicans just don't seem to be going forward. And um, 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:41.440 it's going to mean that a lot of the objectives 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.599 on social level as well as an economic and political 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:47.400 level that the Democrats wanted to do just simply aren't 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:51.479 going to happen. It's also going to constrain choices of 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:55.880 biden administration for cabinet jobs. I don't think Republicans will 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:59.479 block all appointments, but some of the requests of the 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:02.160 more rest a wing of the Democratic Party for more 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.120 progressive cabinet members, they're going to be hard to bring 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.479 about with the Senate having to approve all appointments. So 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:10.599 it's going to be a tougher haul for Biden to 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:14.360 be successful in his agenda that the Republicans keep the Senate, 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:16.600 and that, of course, as you know, it is in 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:19.479 the hands of the voters of Georgia right now. Yeah, 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:23.159 that's for sure. I mean, won't the Republicans want the 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:25.440 economy to do well as well though, in order to 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:29.320 sort keep up their support. Well, you know, I'm not 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:32.320 a Republican bunny, and I'm trying really hard to understand 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:36.080 Republicans each program, and I wish that they would explain 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:39.040 to me why they think it is in their interests, 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:42.320 in the national interests to slow down, you know, support 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.960 for the economy as it goes through this terrible contraction 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:50.320 and to um, I understand some of the disagreements in principle, uh, 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:53.360 and that's okay, but I don't understand why they would 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:55.760 want to shut down the business of government trying to 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:58.520 promote the general welfare right now. So you'll have to 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:01.239 ask a republic in that question. But from my point 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:05.120 of view, I admit that on yours, don't it's not 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:09.600 often the Carl Weinberg. Yes, that's right, Carl. We could 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.600 talk all day, but unfortunately we're coming to the end. 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:19.080 Just briefly, your you know, GDP forecast GDP forecast fourth 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:22.160 quarter is probably going to be down. Let's broaden it 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.800 to the world, okay, because what we're seeing in Europe 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.120 it's a lot more severe in terms of the outbreak 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:29.120 and a lot more severe in terms of the shutdowns 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:31.600 that we're seeing. And of course in the emerging world, 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:33.760 where they produce a lot of the world materials that 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:36.520 feed our industrial machine. They're going to be problems in 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.280 debt service, they're gonna be problems with bond holders, are 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:41.080 going to be a lot of restructuring coming up. It's 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:43.440 going to be a really grim fourth quarter and it's 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:45.600 going to carry over into next year, and certainly johny 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:47.480 yelling news to talk about the feedback loop all the 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.040 time from international economies to the US and vice versa. 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:52.680 Carl Weinberg, thank you for joining us today. That's Dr 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:57.760 Carl Weinberg, Founder and chief International economist for High Frequency Economics. 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:02.840 It is time now to take a look at Disney. 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:06.400 Shares began the session higher. They're still up for they 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.160 have been raising some gains off about one point one now. 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:12.880 Severe changes throughout the pandemic to the business model. Let's 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:16.440 bring in Tara la Chapelle Bloomberg Opinion, who knows everything 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:19.040 there is to know about Disney. She is Media and 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:25.760 Deal's columnist. So Tara, your takeaway thoughts after last night's earnings. Yeah, 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:28.680 I mean the takeaway is that streaming is front and 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:32.240 center right now, and that's not such a bad thing 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:36.079 because these other businesses are still being bluddended by the pandemic. 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:39.200 The cruises aren't going to be back in operation until 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.000 at least after this year. Not all the theme parks 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.400 are open, and the ones that are open are operating 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:48.520 at reduced capacity. Of course. Uh, the film business obviously 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:52.480 really had nothing significant this year because movie theaters were closed, 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:55.520 and the TV networks, I mean, they're they're doing okay 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.400 because they they're costs. They're down because they couldn't really 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.520 you know, produce much content for the year. But the 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:04.800 the outlook isn't you know, great obviously with streaming taking 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:06.880 over and more people cutting the cords. So I think, 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:10.120 you know, investors just want to hear them talk about streaming, streaming, streaming. 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:12.400 It's all about Disney Plus. And I think that's why 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:15.600 the stock is up despite you know, the company not 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:20.240 reporting great results expectively because of covid Terry. You've got 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.880 a great, great column out on this Disney earnings and 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:26.440 in your column you say, Disney recently was you know, 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:29.120 a theme park company, a media network company, a film 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.680 studio plus some streaming. Now you think of it now 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:36.000 is a streaming giant plus some other stuff. That's a 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:39.040 big change. Yeah, It's like everything's kind of moved to 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.520 the other side of the plus sign, you know, Disney Plus. 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.520 It's it's obviously not making money. I maybe can't you 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:47.240 know that that is still true, Like Disney Plus doesn't 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.320 make money. It's going to be a little while before 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:51.599 it does. But just in terms of the growth in 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:54.240 the direction of where this industry is going. There are 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.040 positive signs that Disney is doing a pretty decent job 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.920 with it. They've got seventy three million subscribers to Disney 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:02.640 Plus um and it's all about, you know, trying to 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.840 catch up to Netflix and just keeping those subscribers loyal. 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.720 And Bob Chapek, the CEO, talks on the call last 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:11.560 night about how they do that, which is really ramping 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.479 up the number of shows and movies that are available 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:18.080 to Disney Plus subscribers, either in the form of what 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:21.280 they did with Mulan, where you're Disney Plus subscriber paying 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.840 seven dollars a month and then you pay thirty dollars 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:26.480 one time charge on top of that to watch Mulan, 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:29.320 or like what they're doing with Pixar Soul, which is 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.400 just going to be available for no extra charge to 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.400 Disney Plus users. And so they're kind of experimenting with 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:38.640 that and with this big reorganization that Shapeck announced the 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.400 other day where they're going to, you know, put all 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:45.240 the content creation side of the media and entertainment business 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.440 into one unit and they're just going to focus on 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:49.680 making content and then they're going to have this other 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:53.280 group that just focuses on figuring out where to put 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:56.840 that content, whether it's on the traditional cable networks, whether 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.599 it's in a movie theater, whether it's on Disney Plus 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.719 or for you know, going back and forth between those. Uh. 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:04.959 For instance, A T and T is is going to 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:09.120 release Wonder Woman ninetem four, uh supposed to be Christmas Day, 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:10.640 and then a couple of weeks later they might put 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:13.559 it right on HBO Max. So we're really starting to 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:16.520 see these companies change their strategy when it comes to 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:22.079 where content, big content, expensive productions are going to wind up. Wow, 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:25.840 that is fascinating. What about the theme parks? Do they 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:30.880 emerge much smaller, much less staffed. It's it's really hard 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:33.320 to know right now. I mean, it seems like Tapic 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:37.360 and also Brian Roberts that Comcast, which owns Universal Studios, 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.200 are really optimistic about the theme parks business that that 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:42.880 will come back. They don't seem to be talking is 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:46.160 optimistically about movie theaters, but theme parks. They really seem 0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:49.120 to like that business a lot. For Disney, the Parks 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:52.080 and Cruises division, how to over one billion dollar loss 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.320 for the fourth quarter and the total impact on profit 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:57.520 from COVID so far just for that business has been 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:00.600 almost seven billion dollars, So they're really hurting. But I 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.800 think that these companies are optimistic that it will come back. 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.280 It's just going to take a while. A combination of 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:09.040 you know, in California with Disneyland, trying to work with 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:12.120 the state government there, which is really opposed to reopening, 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.800 and then also you know, trying to get people comfortable 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.600 again with travel and and visiting these you know, big 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:21.679 crowded spaces tera. What do we know about the role 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:24.040 of Bob Iger. You know, he stepped down a CEO 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:27.040 too much fanfare, uh, going to be a chairman for 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.840 a while, then as COVID came on, um potentially coming 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:32.120 back and taking it's a little bit more of a 0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.600 bigger role. Do we know what his role is right now? Yeah? 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:37.920 I mean, I think that the speculation when he did 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:40.920 step back and then COVID hit was that Bob Iger 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:42.439 is going to come back and kind of be pulling 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:45.520 the strings behind the scenes, even though he's no longer CEO, 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.480 you know, he's still executive chairman. But I'm not sure 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.800 that it's actually working out that way to Disney's credit, 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.240 Bob Sack is really calling the shots, and that's at 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:55.520 least what it looks like to people on the outside. 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.920 I mean, this is his reorganization, and as someone who 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.719 came up through the park side of the company, I mean, 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.200 he's really doing a lot to put the focus on 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.800 streaming and so I think he's making the right moves 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:09.640 and and you know, people are pretty pleased with what 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.119 he's doing and making the best of a tough situation 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:14.800 this year. And we haven't really heard anything from Bob Eiger. 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.439 He didn't speak on the call last night, I don't think, 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.920 and it's just been really quiet on that front. And 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:21.560 I think that's what they needed to do in order 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:24.480 for it to be seen as an actual, you know 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.120 succession where Bob Chapek is the CEO of Disney. Now, 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.480 what about sports viewing. Disney was insisting that it's not 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:35.000 a problem that the live sports going away for the 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:39.080 most part, is not hurting. Yeah. I mean, the you 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.360 know sports came back in the fourth quarters, so that 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.280 hurts them in some ways because it meant that their 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:46.000 costs went up a lot because sports programming is very expensive. 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:49.160 But I think overall they're happy to see sports back. 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:51.840 It's just without the vaccine, we don't know what this 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.280 is going to look like. And by the time you know, 0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:57.960 we're able to go back to quote normal in some way. Uh, 0:13:58.120 --> 0:13:59.920 you know, people have been cutting the court in our 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:04.480 they hanging on to these expensive, you know, sports subscriptions. 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.120 I don't know. I mean, it's really hard to know. 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.840 ESPN is cutting like three jobs right now, so it's 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:11.880 it's not looking great. It makes me wonder. You know, 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.880 for a long time people have speculated whether Disney whatever 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:18.120 kind of spin off ESPN or separate from it, And 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.240 now in hindsight, it's like, you know, maybe they should 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.200 have done that. You know, that's the business that it 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:25.320 really there's a lot of unknowns because of COVID and 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.320 because of streaming, so they're getting hit from both sides. Terry, 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:33.080 how's some people reacting to that organization you've referenced There 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:35.480 was a pretty big reorganization of the management team to 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:38.120 try to focus more on streaming. Some people was kind 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.800 of scratching their heads. What's kind of the feedback you're hearing. Yeah, 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:43.520 I mean, I think it's going to be really tough 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.040 if you work in those businesses. Right now. If you're 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:47.960 a manager, you know, you've kind of had some of 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:51.760 your responsibilities taken away, perhaps because if you're just if 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:53.640 you know, if you work for the cable network and 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.920 you're just focusing on content now, you don't really have 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.120 a stay over where that content goes. And streaming has 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.320 kind of become the big thing that they're focusing on, 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:04.120 and so if you're in these other businesses, you might 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:06.280 feel a little bit slighted. Um. But I think what 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.520 Bob try to say on the call last night is 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.520 that they're doing this in a very organized way, and 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:14.240 they're making it clear what people's responsibilities are. That if 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:17.480 you're a creative you're in a creative role, focus on that. 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:19.880 And if you're in a role to market and and 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:23.040 distribute content, focus on that. And that will make it 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.960 a more organized, um, you know, process, and maybe make 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.440 it easier for Disney to do this in a way 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.120 that doesn't disrupt the empire so much. But of course, 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.360 right now, I mean, I imagine it's gonna be really 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:39.200 hard to be there. It's just like everything just changed overnight. Absolutely. Hey, Tara, 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.720 thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate your thoughts 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.920 and insight Tara La Chappelle. She's a Bloomberg opinion column 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.840 she covers entertainment, telecommunications, UH and deal. She joins us 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:51.360 on the phone from New York City and again better 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:53.960 than expected results out of Disney. I think the expectations 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:55.720 were quite low given the pandemic and we know the 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.360 impact it's having on its business. But again, this is 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.600 a company that's pivoted toward streaming business and they put 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:05.120 us some really good streaming numbers last night. When you 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.240 think about the U. S. Agricultural sector, rural America, that 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:12.320 lots of challenges, climate related disasters, weak ethanol and bio 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:15.880 fueld demand, US China trade tensions and that that's not enough, 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:19.240 COVID nineteen pandemic, many many challenges for the U. S. 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.720 Agricultural industry and rural America. To get a sense of 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.840 what rural America, US Big agg look like potentially under 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.800 a Biden administration, we welcome our next guest, Run sunder Room, 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:32.120 Equity Research analysts for c f R A research based 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:34.720 in Washington, d c uh Aaron, thanks so much for 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.960 joining us here. Again, tough times for the U. S. 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:43.760 Agricultural sector, rural America, what's the feeling under a Biden 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:49.160 administration about potential changes, Paul, Yeah, thanks for having me. Yeah, 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:52.440 you mentioned you under the Trump administration. You know, although 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:54.440 the Trump administration is trying to pay itself as an 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.400 ally to farmers, the unfortunate truth is, you know, the 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:59.720 past few years have been nothing short of difficult for 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:02.320 the agriculture sector. You know, we've had the US trying 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.879 to trade war, various climber related disasters, weak demand for 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:09.919 ethnom biofuels, and then obviously the COVID nineteen pandemic has 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:13.439 wrecked havoc on the sector. But we believe under a 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.280 Biden administration, you know, there'll be a lot more positive 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.679 implications for the sector um rather than negative ones. You know, 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:22.960 Joe Biden's policies are much more moderate than most of 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.280 the other Democrats that are running in the Democratic primary. 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:29.680 You know, Bidden's biggest goal is to achieve that zero 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:31.920 emissions by two as the fifties, So I think he'll 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:35.120 want to work with the agriculture industry to practice more 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:38.560 you know, sustainable farming methods, and I think he'll incentivize 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.879 them to do so. So, really, anything that's related to green, 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:46.080 clean energy should support farmers, particularly corn farmers, I think 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:49.440 in the United States because they have been increasingly reliant 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:53.800 on the ethanol industry. But unfortunately the ethnicol industry over 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.320 the past few years have been that the industry has 0:17:56.359 --> 0:18:00.000 been significantly pressured. Um you know, I think last year's 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:03.359 of nineteen dethnel industry productions for the first time in 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.760 nearly a decade. So, um, when when Joe Biden comes in, 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:09.479 I think anything that it's way to clean green energy 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:14.520 should support UH farmers, agrie businesses and be a big 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:18.480 relief for the industry. And what about the relationship with 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:21.560 China and how farmers fit into that. China, you know, 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:24.439 sending cops and so on to the United States and 0:18:24.560 --> 0:18:29.160 vice versa. Exports. Yeah, yeah, that's right. So the good 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:32.040 news right now at least is over the past few months, 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:38.440 China has significantly accelerated uh it's imports of US agricultural products. Um. 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.760 But unfortunately they are still you know, well short of 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:45.160 its UH commitment requirements as part of the Phase one 0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:49.359 US China trade deal that was signed earlier this year. Um. 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:51.840 You know. Unfortunately, that trade deal was signed I think 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:55.000 less than ten days before China went into lockdown. So 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:59.360 obviously China has been slow to to uh purchase US 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.800 agricultural products. But the good news is, at least right 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:04.720 now it looks like they are accelerating their their imports. 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:07.440 But I think when when Joe Biden comes in, UM, 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.320 I don't think he'll completely scrapped existing Phase one agreement 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.320 or immediately removed tariffs because you know, it will be 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.080 prudent to get something in return, you know. I think 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.359 instead Joe Biden will work with other allies to set 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:22.520 some ground rules for China which includes topics like you know, 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:26.560 human rights, climate change, um, and and then go go 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.480 go from there. But um, but like I said, the 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:32.119 good news is China is accelerating their their U s 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:36.159 agricultural imports then and hopefully that continues. What are some 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:38.400 of the areas that have been particularly hard hit when 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:42.240 you look at the US egg industry. What are some 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:47.760 of the big areas. Yeah, the biggest areas are you know, 0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:52.520 Harry farmers, Uh, you know, soybean farmers, corn farmers. You know, 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.280 they've they've all been you know, like I said, going 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:58.240 through uh, the past few years have been just incredibly 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:01.399 difficult on all of them. Um, but you know, I 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:04.880 think when when when Biden comes into um into uh 0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:08.960 the seat, I think when when he goes to choose 0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.199 his agriculture secretary, I think, here she will need to 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.040 focus on, you know, the long term and it makes 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:17.840 a more impactful change then you know, some of the 0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:20.280 short term I call short term band aids that are 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.800 being handed out right now to farmers. Right now, there's 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:26.119 a lot of you know, subsidies and grants being handed 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:28.639 out to farmers. But but farmers want to make their 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:32.080 own income. So I think going forward, you know, we'll 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:36.480 need to you know, expand trade opportunities and um really 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:39.920 open up the market for for our farm economy. How 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:42.280 are they doing out there? I mean I've been asking 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:44.720 questions over the last several days about supply chains and 0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:48.200 so on, and you know, how has the farming community 0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:51.560 dealt now with eight months of you know lockdown in 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:55.760 many parts of the country. Yeah, so the past the 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.359 past eight months have been very difficult. You know. In 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.959 the beginning, um, you know, farmers had to know, had 0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:05.159 to leave their their crop and the plants they are 0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.920 unable to harvest them. And then also um, the knee 0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:11.560 processing industry has has has gone through some challenges as well. 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:14.000 You know, uh, many farmers had to had to call 0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:15.919 their livestock because there was just there was just no 0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.720