1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEO, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, we are likely to 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: have a new administration in very soon. The questions abound. 8 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: One of them is how would this new administration deal 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 1: with China, particularly the economic challenges with China. Nobody better 10 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: to have that discussion than Carl Weinberg, founder and chief 11 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: international economist at High Frequency Economics. Carl, thanks so much 12 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 1: for joining us here. It's been a rough, bumpy four years, 13 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: to say the very least between the US and China 14 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: as it relates to trade. How do you think things 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: will be different with a Biden administration? Well, that is 16 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: the question of the day, and I personally am looking 17 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: forward to see what's kind of a team UH President 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: Elect Biden puts together at the U s Special Trade 19 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: Representatives Office to give us some guidance as to how 20 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: this is going to go. The tariffs have not worked 21 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: they haven't reduced China's trade surplus with the United States 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: in any measurable way. Since they've come on board. China's 23 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: increased its exports to the United States by six and 24 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: it's imports are up only eleven point eight percent um. 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: That's not a winning strategy, and it's a tax on Americans. 26 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 1: Tariffs are one of the few tax areas president elect 27 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: a President Biden could reduce on US taxpayers without having 28 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: to go through Congress. So there's a lot of potential there, 29 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: But of course we don't want to be backing away 30 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: from the critical issues of differences that we have with China. 31 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: A sharp guy at the trade representatives, if you took 32 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: President Trump out of the picture and the last four years, 33 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:53,919 Speaker 1: we could just, you know, erase that for the moment. 34 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: What would a Biden plan towards China be. It feels 35 00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: like maybe he has to be a little bit more 36 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: inviting to China given the last four years, but if 37 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: that hadn't happened, he could be a lot tougher on China. Yeah, 38 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: well absolutely, I mean he's certainly a lot tougher on 39 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: China now than he was when he was vice president. 40 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: And of course the playing field has changed a lot. 41 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: It's more than just economic issues that separate us. We 42 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: have human rights issues. We have Hong Kong on the table. 43 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: Just within the last twenty four hours forty eight hours, 44 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: we've seen China make moves to impose its rule on 45 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: Hong Kong, which the US can't accept. We've got Taiwan issues, 46 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: We've got India issues, We've got all kinds of human 47 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: rights issues. So, um, it's not just a simple matter 48 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: of commercial tariffs to achieve commercial goals. So the tricky 49 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 1: part here is going to be to back down, I think, 50 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 1: on the tariffs, but at the same time, to find 51 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: ways to put pressure on China, perhaps through non economic 52 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: ways or through economic ways, to try to achieve and 53 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 1: to maintain our belief in some of these other goals. 54 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 1: So says it sounds like from what we can see 55 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: that China is getting back to work, that their economy, Um, 56 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: they've seen the worst of it as it relates to COVID. 57 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: What do you know about the economy in China and 58 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:17,679 Speaker 1: how that may influence kind of their negotiating posture. Yeah, 59 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: so China's economy is growing. They seem to have contained 60 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: the coronavirus better than we have there. There's no sign 61 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 1: of a second wave of outbreaks over there. Whatever outbreaks 62 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: we've seen have been contained in clusters rather than becoming 63 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: community spread, and the numbers are quite low. And as 64 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 1: a result, their economy is growing. At the same time, 65 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: they're increasing their exports for the rest of the world 66 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: because they can, because they're at work and they're producing stuff, 67 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: and they're being aggressive in terms of getting their merchandise 68 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: out there. So we're seeing their export revenues go up, 69 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: and we're also seeing them we deploy those export revenues 70 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: into direct investment in other countries, building up their silk 71 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: roots and making direct support and aid investments in other countries, 72 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: sometimes against the wishes of the United States, like in Iran, 73 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: and that's helping them promote their economic agenda and project 74 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 1: their economic and diplomatic power around the world. They're taking 75 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: good advantage of their advances and their their windfall on 76 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 1: public health. Yeah, speaking of which, Carl, how is the 77 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: U s economy these days? We we just got poor 78 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: confidence data this morning, and and poor inflation data this 79 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 1: week too. Yeah, well, Ronnie, you don't need me to 80 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: tell you that we're in for a rough time here. 81 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: You know. J Powell said it yesterday at the Virtual 82 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: ECB Confidence and everybody who talks about the U. S 83 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: economy tells the same story, and they're all right, the 84 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: coronavirus outbreak that we're currently experiencing is debilitating. It not 85 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: only causes us to lock down our enterprises, but it 86 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: forces enterprises that are in lockdown to shut down as 87 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: infection spread. This is going to be a loss of production. 88 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: We're in for a really, really dark fourth quarter of 89 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: this year. Carl, what do you make just broadly defined 90 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: of a Biden administration, a Democratic House and I'm sorry 91 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: at a Democratic House and a Republican controlled Senate. What 92 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: does that mean do you think for economic policy over 93 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: the next several years. Well, if that's the way it 94 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: works out, and as you know, the Senator is still 95 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: a programs. We still have to by elections in Georgia. 96 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: But assuming that the Republicans keep the House, that's gonna 97 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: sty me Biden's efforts to pump stimulus into the economy. 98 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 1: The Republicans just don't seem to be going forward. And um, 99 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: it's going to mean that a lot of the objectives 100 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: on social level as well as an economic and political 101 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: level that the Democrats wanted to do just simply aren't 102 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: going to happen. It's also going to constrain choices of 103 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: biden administration for cabinet jobs. I don't think Republicans will 104 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 1: block all appointments, but some of the requests of the 105 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 1: more rest a wing of the Democratic Party for more 106 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: progressive cabinet members, they're going to be hard to bring 107 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 1: about with the Senate having to approve all appointments. So 108 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 1: it's going to be a tougher haul for Biden to 109 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: be successful in his agenda that the Republicans keep the Senate, 110 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 1: and that, of course, as you know, it is in 111 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,479 Speaker 1: the hands of the voters of Georgia right now. Yeah, 112 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 1: that's for sure. I mean, won't the Republicans want the 113 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: economy to do well as well though, in order to 114 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: sort keep up their support. Well, you know, I'm not 115 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: a Republican bunny, and I'm trying really hard to understand 116 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: Republicans each program, and I wish that they would explain 117 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: to me why they think it is in their interests, 118 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: in the national interests to slow down, you know, support 119 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: for the economy as it goes through this terrible contraction 120 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: and to um, I understand some of the disagreements in principle, uh, 121 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: and that's okay, but I don't understand why they would 122 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: want to shut down the business of government trying to 123 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: promote the general welfare right now. So you'll have to 124 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,239 Speaker 1: ask a republic in that question. But from my point 125 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: of view, I admit that on yours, don't it's not 126 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: often the Carl Weinberg. Yes, that's right, Carl. We could 127 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: talk all day, but unfortunately we're coming to the end. 128 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: Just briefly, your you know, GDP forecast GDP forecast fourth 129 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: quarter is probably going to be down. Let's broaden it 130 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: to the world, okay, because what we're seeing in Europe 131 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 1: it's a lot more severe in terms of the outbreak 132 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: and a lot more severe in terms of the shutdowns 133 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 1: that we're seeing. And of course in the emerging world, 134 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: where they produce a lot of the world materials that 135 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: feed our industrial machine. They're going to be problems in 136 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: debt service, they're gonna be problems with bond holders, are 137 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: going to be a lot of restructuring coming up. It's 138 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: going to be a really grim fourth quarter and it's 139 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: going to carry over into next year, and certainly johny 140 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: yelling news to talk about the feedback loop all the 141 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: time from international economies to the US and vice versa. 142 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: Carl Weinberg, thank you for joining us today. That's Dr 143 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: Carl Weinberg, Founder and chief International economist for High Frequency Economics. 144 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: It is time now to take a look at Disney. 145 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: Shares began the session higher. They're still up for they 146 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: have been raising some gains off about one point one now. 147 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: Severe changes throughout the pandemic to the business model. Let's 148 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: bring in Tara la Chapelle Bloomberg Opinion, who knows everything 149 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: there is to know about Disney. She is Media and 150 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: Deal's columnist. So Tara, your takeaway thoughts after last night's earnings. Yeah, 151 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 1: I mean the takeaway is that streaming is front and 152 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: center right now, and that's not such a bad thing 153 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 1: because these other businesses are still being bluddended by the pandemic. 154 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: The cruises aren't going to be back in operation until 155 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: at least after this year. Not all the theme parks 156 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: are open, and the ones that are open are operating 157 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: at reduced capacity. Of course. Uh, the film business obviously 158 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: really had nothing significant this year because movie theaters were closed, 159 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: and the TV networks, I mean, they're they're doing okay 160 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: because they they're costs. They're down because they couldn't really 161 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: you know, produce much content for the year. But the 162 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: the outlook isn't you know, great obviously with streaming taking 163 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: over and more people cutting the cords. So I think, 164 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: you know, investors just want to hear them talk about streaming, streaming, streaming. 165 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: It's all about Disney Plus. And I think that's why 166 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: the stock is up despite you know, the company not 167 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: reporting great results expectively because of covid Terry. You've got 168 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: a great, great column out on this Disney earnings and 169 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: in your column you say, Disney recently was you know, 170 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: a theme park company, a media network company, a film 171 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: studio plus some streaming. Now you think of it now 172 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: is a streaming giant plus some other stuff. That's a 173 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: big change. Yeah, It's like everything's kind of moved to 174 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: the other side of the plus sign, you know, Disney Plus. 175 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 1: It's it's obviously not making money. I maybe can't you 176 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: know that that is still true, Like Disney Plus doesn't 177 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 1: make money. It's going to be a little while before 178 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,599 Speaker 1: it does. But just in terms of the growth in 179 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: the direction of where this industry is going. There are 180 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: positive signs that Disney is doing a pretty decent job 181 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: with it. They've got seventy three million subscribers to Disney 182 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: Plus um and it's all about, you know, trying to 183 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 1: catch up to Netflix and just keeping those subscribers loyal. 184 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: And Bob Chapek, the CEO, talks on the call last 185 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 1: night about how they do that, which is really ramping 186 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,479 Speaker 1: up the number of shows and movies that are available 187 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: to Disney Plus subscribers, either in the form of what 188 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: they did with Mulan, where you're Disney Plus subscriber paying 189 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: seven dollars a month and then you pay thirty dollars 190 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: one time charge on top of that to watch Mulan, 191 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: or like what they're doing with Pixar Soul, which is 192 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: just going to be available for no extra charge to 193 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: Disney Plus users. And so they're kind of experimenting with 194 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: that and with this big reorganization that Shapeck announced the 195 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: other day where they're going to, you know, put all 196 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: the content creation side of the media and entertainment business 197 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 1: into one unit and they're just going to focus on 198 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 1: making content and then they're going to have this other 199 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: group that just focuses on figuring out where to put 200 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: that content, whether it's on the traditional cable networks, whether 201 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,599 Speaker 1: it's in a movie theater, whether it's on Disney Plus 202 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,719 Speaker 1: or for you know, going back and forth between those. Uh. 203 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 1: For instance, A T and T is is going to 204 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: release Wonder Woman ninetem four, uh supposed to be Christmas Day, 205 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: and then a couple of weeks later they might put 206 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,559 Speaker 1: it right on HBO Max. So we're really starting to 207 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: see these companies change their strategy when it comes to 208 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 1: where content, big content, expensive productions are going to wind up. Wow, 209 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: that is fascinating. What about the theme parks? Do they 210 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: emerge much smaller, much less staffed. It's it's really hard 211 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 1: to know right now. I mean, it seems like Tapic 212 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: and also Brian Roberts that Comcast, which owns Universal Studios, 213 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: are really optimistic about the theme parks business that that 214 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: will come back. They don't seem to be talking is 215 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: optimistically about movie theaters, but theme parks. They really seem 216 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: to like that business a lot. For Disney, the Parks 217 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 1: and Cruises division, how to over one billion dollar loss 218 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: for the fourth quarter and the total impact on profit 219 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: from COVID so far just for that business has been 220 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: almost seven billion dollars, So they're really hurting. But I 221 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: think that these companies are optimistic that it will come back. 222 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: It's just going to take a while. A combination of 223 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: you know, in California with Disneyland, trying to work with 224 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: the state government there, which is really opposed to reopening, 225 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: and then also you know, trying to get people comfortable 226 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: again with travel and and visiting these you know, big 227 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 1: crowded spaces tera. What do we know about the role 228 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: of Bob Iger. You know, he stepped down a CEO 229 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: too much fanfare, uh, going to be a chairman for 230 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: a while, then as COVID came on, um potentially coming 231 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: back and taking it's a little bit more of a 232 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: bigger role. Do we know what his role is right now? Yeah? 233 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that the speculation when he did 234 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: step back and then COVID hit was that Bob Iger 235 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 1: is going to come back and kind of be pulling 236 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: the strings behind the scenes, even though he's no longer CEO, 237 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: you know, he's still executive chairman. But I'm not sure 238 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: that it's actually working out that way to Disney's credit, 239 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: Bob Sack is really calling the shots, and that's at 240 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: least what it looks like to people on the outside. 241 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: I mean, this is his reorganization, and as someone who 242 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:01,719 Speaker 1: came up through the park side of the company, I mean, 243 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: he's really doing a lot to put the focus on 244 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: streaming and so I think he's making the right moves 245 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: and and you know, people are pretty pleased with what 246 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,119 Speaker 1: he's doing and making the best of a tough situation 247 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: this year. And we haven't really heard anything from Bob Eiger. 248 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: He didn't speak on the call last night, I don't think, 249 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: and it's just been really quiet on that front. And 250 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: I think that's what they needed to do in order 251 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 1: for it to be seen as an actual, you know 252 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: succession where Bob Chapek is the CEO of Disney. Now, 253 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: what about sports viewing. Disney was insisting that it's not 254 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: a problem that the live sports going away for the 255 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: most part, is not hurting. Yeah. I mean, the you 256 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: know sports came back in the fourth quarters, so that 257 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: hurts them in some ways because it meant that their 258 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: costs went up a lot because sports programming is very expensive. 259 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: But I think overall they're happy to see sports back. 260 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: It's just without the vaccine, we don't know what this 261 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: is going to look like. And by the time you know, 262 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: we're able to go back to quote normal in some way. Uh, 263 00:13:58,120 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: you know, people have been cutting the court in our 264 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: they hanging on to these expensive, you know, sports subscriptions. 265 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, it's really hard to know. 266 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 1: ESPN is cutting like three jobs right now, so it's 267 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: it's not looking great. It makes me wonder. You know, 268 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 1: for a long time people have speculated whether Disney whatever 269 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: kind of spin off ESPN or separate from it, And 270 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: now in hindsight, it's like, you know, maybe they should 271 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 1: have done that. You know, that's the business that it 272 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: really there's a lot of unknowns because of COVID and 273 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: because of streaming, so they're getting hit from both sides. Terry, 274 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: how's some people reacting to that organization you've referenced There 275 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 1: was a pretty big reorganization of the management team to 276 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: try to focus more on streaming. Some people was kind 277 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: of scratching their heads. What's kind of the feedback you're hearing. Yeah, 278 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's going to be really tough 279 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: if you work in those businesses. Right now. If you're 280 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: a manager, you know, you've kind of had some of 281 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: your responsibilities taken away, perhaps because if you're just if 282 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: you know, if you work for the cable network and 283 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: you're just focusing on content now, you don't really have 284 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: a stay over where that content goes. And streaming has 285 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: kind of become the big thing that they're focusing on, 286 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: and so if you're in these other businesses, you might 287 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: feel a little bit slighted. Um. But I think what 288 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: Bob try to say on the call last night is 289 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: that they're doing this in a very organized way, and 290 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: they're making it clear what people's responsibilities are. That if 291 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: you're a creative you're in a creative role, focus on that. 292 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: And if you're in a role to market and and 293 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: distribute content, focus on that. And that will make it 294 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: a more organized, um, you know, process, and maybe make 295 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: it easier for Disney to do this in a way 296 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: that doesn't disrupt the empire so much. But of course, 297 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: right now, I mean, I imagine it's gonna be really 298 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: hard to be there. It's just like everything just changed overnight. Absolutely. Hey, Tara, 299 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate your thoughts 300 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: and insight Tara La Chappelle. She's a Bloomberg opinion column 301 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: she covers entertainment, telecommunications, UH and deal. She joins us 302 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: on the phone from New York City and again better 303 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: than expected results out of Disney. I think the expectations 304 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: were quite low given the pandemic and we know the 305 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: impact it's having on its business. But again, this is 306 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: a company that's pivoted toward streaming business and they put 307 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: us some really good streaming numbers last night. When you 308 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: think about the U. S. Agricultural sector, rural America, that 309 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: lots of challenges, climate related disasters, weak ethanol and bio 310 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: fueld demand, US China trade tensions and that that's not enough, 311 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen pandemic, many many challenges for the U. S. 312 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: Agricultural industry and rural America. To get a sense of 313 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: what rural America, US Big agg look like potentially under 314 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: a Biden administration, we welcome our next guest, Run sunder Room, 315 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: Equity Research analysts for c f R A research based 316 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: in Washington, d c uh Aaron, thanks so much for 317 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: joining us here. Again, tough times for the U. S. 318 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: Agricultural sector, rural America, what's the feeling under a Biden 319 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: administration about potential changes, Paul, Yeah, thanks for having me. Yeah, 320 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: you mentioned you under the Trump administration. You know, although 321 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 1: the Trump administration is trying to pay itself as an 322 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: ally to farmers, the unfortunate truth is, you know, the 323 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: past few years have been nothing short of difficult for 324 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: the agriculture sector. You know, we've had the US trying 325 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 1: to trade war, various climber related disasters, weak demand for 326 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: ethnom biofuels, and then obviously the COVID nineteen pandemic has 327 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 1: wrecked havoc on the sector. But we believe under a 328 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: Biden administration, you know, there'll be a lot more positive 329 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 1: implications for the sector um rather than negative ones. You know, 330 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's policies are much more moderate than most of 331 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: the other Democrats that are running in the Democratic primary. 332 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: You know, Bidden's biggest goal is to achieve that zero 333 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: emissions by two as the fifties, So I think he'll 334 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: want to work with the agriculture industry to practice more 335 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: you know, sustainable farming methods, and I think he'll incentivize 336 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: them to do so. So, really, anything that's related to green, 337 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: clean energy should support farmers, particularly corn farmers, I think 338 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: in the United States because they have been increasingly reliant 339 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: on the ethanol industry. But unfortunately the ethnicol industry over 340 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: the past few years have been that the industry has 341 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: been significantly pressured. Um you know, I think last year's 342 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: of nineteen dethnel industry productions for the first time in 343 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: nearly a decade. So, um, when when Joe Biden comes in, 344 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,479 Speaker 1: I think anything that it's way to clean green energy 345 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 1: should support UH farmers, agrie businesses and be a big 346 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 1: relief for the industry. And what about the relationship with 347 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: China and how farmers fit into that. China, you know, 348 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 1: sending cops and so on to the United States and 349 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: vice versa. Exports. Yeah, yeah, that's right. So the good 350 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: news right now at least is over the past few months, 351 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 1: China has significantly accelerated uh it's imports of US agricultural products. Um. 352 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: But unfortunately they are still you know, well short of 353 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 1: its UH commitment requirements as part of the Phase one 354 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: US China trade deal that was signed earlier this year. Um. 355 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: You know. Unfortunately, that trade deal was signed I think 356 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: less than ten days before China went into lockdown. So 357 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 1: obviously China has been slow to to uh purchase US 358 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: agricultural products. But the good news is, at least right 359 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: now it looks like they are accelerating their their imports. 360 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: But I think when when Joe Biden comes in, UM, 361 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: I don't think he'll completely scrapped existing Phase one agreement 362 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 1: or immediately removed tariffs because you know, it will be 363 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 1: prudent to get something in return, you know. I think 364 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: instead Joe Biden will work with other allies to set 365 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 1: some ground rules for China which includes topics like you know, 366 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: human rights, climate change, um, and and then go go 367 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: go from there. But um, but like I said, the 368 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 1: good news is China is accelerating their their U s 369 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 1: agricultural imports then and hopefully that continues. What are some 370 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 1: of the areas that have been particularly hard hit when 371 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: you look at the US egg industry. What are some 372 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: of the big areas. Yeah, the biggest areas are you know, 373 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: Harry farmers, Uh, you know, soybean farmers, corn farmers. You know, 374 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: they've they've all been you know, like I said, going 375 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: through uh, the past few years have been just incredibly 376 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 1: difficult on all of them. Um, but you know, I 377 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: think when when when Biden comes into um into uh 378 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: the seat, I think when when he goes to choose 379 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 1: his agriculture secretary, I think, here she will need to 380 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: focus on, you know, the long term and it makes 381 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: a more impactful change then you know, some of the 382 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: short term I call short term band aids that are 383 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: being handed out right now to farmers. Right now, there's 384 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 1: a lot of you know, subsidies and grants being handed 385 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 1: out to farmers. But but farmers want to make their 386 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: own income. So I think going forward, you know, we'll 387 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: need to you know, expand trade opportunities and um really 388 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 1: open up the market for for our farm economy. How 389 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: are they doing out there? I mean I've been asking 390 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 1: questions over the last several days about supply chains and 391 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: so on, and you know, how has the farming community 392 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: dealt now with eight months of you know lockdown in 393 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: many parts of the country. Yeah, so the past the 394 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: past eight months have been very difficult. You know. In 395 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:02,959 Speaker 1: the beginning, um, you know, farmers had to know, had 396 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 1: to leave their their crop and the plants they are 397 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: unable to harvest them. And then also um, the knee 398 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: processing industry has has has gone through some challenges as well. 399 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: You know, uh, many farmers had to had to call 400 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: their livestock because there was just there was just no 401 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: end demand for for their products because of the essential 402 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: shutdown to the food service industry. Um. But but but 403 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: the good news now is, you know, the economy is recovering. 404 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think anyone is expecting to economy 405 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 1: to recover as fast it is right now, and and 406 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: therefore supply and demand levels are beginning to balance, which 407 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: is a good sign. But obviously right now the number 408 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: of COVID cases are rising, and then there's a chance 409 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: that you know, we could have lockdowns again in the future, um, 410 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: which could have put you know, an imbalance to the 411 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: supply and demand levels. But um, the good news is 412 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 1: we've we've gone through lockdowns once, and I think the 413 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: industry is a lot more prepared to go through one again. Aarons, 414 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: thank you. We will ask you to come back soon 415 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: and give us a further update. Our own syndrome is 416 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 1: Anquity analyst at c f r A Research talking there 417 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:06,199 Speaker 1: about commodities, farmers, US China relationship, and lots lots more 418 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 1: difficult time for everybody, but rural America has also had 419 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: an extremely tough There is a few mikes, but only 420 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: one in studio right now. Mike mcglogan's with US Commodity 421 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence and Mike a loot to get to. 422 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: But give us an update on cryptocurrencies because we had 423 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: that huge rally for bitcoin, remember, and I guess I 424 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 1: haven't really looked since then what happened in that sector 425 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 1: after that big, big rally. Bitcoin is a bullmarket that's 426 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 1: had a significant correction, impairing to disdain, and it's just 427 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 1: resuming that bullmarket. The key thing is that's really happened. 428 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: This year's fundamentals have really increased and improved. We have 429 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: more demand, more adaption. It's going mainstream. You see that 430 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: from from place companies like micro Strategy and Square. They're 431 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: digging in. Even people like Standing Drucklander saying how he 432 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: holds bitcoins. What I think is happening is bitcoin is 433 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: it's the virus that isn't going away, and it's becoming 434 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: more mainstream. And this year this supplied basically was cut 435 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: in half. So next year, if history is a guide, 436 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 1: is can potentially be a very big up year for 437 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: the price of bitcoin. All right. Well, here's my anecdotal 438 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: evidence about the the you know, bubble nature of bitcoin. 439 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: They're actually talking about it for long periods of time 440 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 1: on sports radio in the morning. You've got the Post 441 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: not talking Mets and not talking Yankees. They're trying to 442 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 1: explain to each other, Mike, what is bitcoin? And no 443 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: one knows, by the way, and why it's going higher? 444 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: No one knows, by the way, but they're all buying it. 445 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 1: So that you know that has to be you need 446 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: to call in sometimes. I know I'm gonna I'm gonna 447 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,120 Speaker 1: have Mike call in because they're just dying for some information. Mike. Um, 448 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: let's talk crude oil here. Um, You've got this, no doubt. 449 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 1: And for those listening, Mike has by far, no question 450 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: the best charts at Bloomberg Intelligences. Charts are so much detail, 451 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 1: you can spend hours just looking at them. You've got 452 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: a great chart where you're talking about more of a 453 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: permanent bear market for crude. What's what's what's your basis there? Well, 454 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: thank you for that, boy. I missed working with you 455 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: and b I, but I do enjoy conversing with you 456 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: on the radio, UM and on TV and the key 457 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: point about crude oils. It's a bear market that's come 458 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: back to good resistance and fundamentals remain parish. So that 459 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: to me is the key thing that makes me look 460 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: very fearful. That w t I around forty is more 461 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 1: likely to go to thirty than the fifties. The key 462 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: thing is just got back to this fifty two weeks 463 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,880 Speaker 1: moving average, which is heading lower for the first time 464 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 1: since January. We see what's having in covid Opec has 465 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: a meeting coming up and they have to sustain cuts, 466 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,800 Speaker 1: yet they need money. It's getting really bad. So it's 467 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 1: almost a perfect storm for the bear market to simply 468 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,440 Speaker 1: continue and resume. And the key thing, it's highly correlated 469 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 1: with bond yields. So a lot of people am looking 470 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 1: for steeping in curve higher bond yields. And I like 471 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 1: to say, is good luck with that one. If crude 472 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: oil takes the next leg lower and it's you know, 473 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: it's enduring bear market, right, We that the effort, let's say, 474 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: at a solid a few dollars of a game, but 475 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: or back down ninety cents today was still about forty 476 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 1: barrolable flirting with that level. So is there a catalyst 477 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: that sends it much lower or matire more the same. 478 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: That's the problem. It needs more cuts. It needs to 479 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: reduce supply, which is indicative of the biggest problem in 480 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: crude oil, rapid lead vancing technology, demographic ships, and now 481 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 1: we have COVID. Supply is just supply is very much 482 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: just waiting to come on and elastic, and demand is 483 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 1: just no more, no longer elastic like it was in 484 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: our you ten twenty years ago. Hey, Mike, we just 485 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 1: had a guest on an analyst talking about some of 486 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 1: the agricultural companies talking about some of the consumer products 487 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 1: companies under a Biden administration. If I'm a farmer, you 488 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: know what am I thinking? You're saying, yeah, thank you. 489 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,160 Speaker 1: The end is over for Trump, for the Trump bottom. Now, 490 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: the good news is President Trump wrote checks to farmers. 491 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,119 Speaker 1: They enjoyed that, But that just increased production. That's the 492 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 1: world's worst way to end the market. So I think 493 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna look back and at the Trump administration is 494 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 1: the enduring low in grain prices as we used to 495 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: look back at two thousand twelves in during high because 496 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: what we have going forward is a potential week dollar. 497 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 1: The trade war of China over exports picking up, and 498 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 1: they they used to say in commanities, the cure for 499 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: low prices is low prices. That's really kicking in. So 500 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 1: the key thing I'm watching is corn looks like it's 501 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,959 Speaker 1: finally staying above four. It looks like it's heading closer 502 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: to five or six, and four dours should now be 503 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: which was resistance for five years and during the Trump administration, 504 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 1: should probably become support. Mike, a quick word on things 505 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,439 Speaker 1: like soy wheat, all those commodities that sort of trade 506 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: outside the country as well as inside. Yes, a key 507 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: derivative and demand indicator for prices is US exports because 508 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 1: soybeans and corn and wheat, the primary most liquid futures 509 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 1: in the world are based on US products that are 510 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: exported and then delivered and traded in the U S. So, 511 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,679 Speaker 1: US exports of kick and picking up, for instance, soybeans, 512 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 1: and we just went past the fifty threshold of production 513 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 1: and that should contin in you, particularly if we have 514 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: a weaker dollar. Mike mclogan, thank you so much for 515 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 1: joining us. Always learned so much about the commodity space. 516 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:10,399 Speaker 1: Mike mcloge covers all commodities. He's a strategist there for 517 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence, and he's probably the only one in the 518 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg building that understands bitcoin, and he's explained it to 519 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 1: us a million times. But I am not. I am not. 520 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: But when I hear sports, uh, you know, guys on 521 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 1: radio talking about bitcoin, it it just kind of gets 522 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: me a little bit nervous. But maybe they know something, uh, 523 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 1: that we don't know. Mike's been on top of that 524 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: bitcoin story from day one, so it's really fascinating. And 525 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,479 Speaker 1: you take a look at that chart and it is 526 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,880 Speaker 1: a good looking chart for bitcoin, but uh, I think 527 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 1: I'll stick to stocks and bonds and some of those 528 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: them were boring instruments. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. 529 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 530 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 1: or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. 531 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,479 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Bonny Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. 532 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,119 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 533 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Brig Radio. H m hmmm.