WEBVTT - Nvidia Sales Forecast Delivers on AI Hopes 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:07.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.880 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:16.640 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.599 gloom War, Business finance, and tech news. The Bloomberg Business 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:29.600 Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck. From Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:29.680 And Video's impact on the epity trade today to the 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:32.199 details behind and Video's earnings and outlook. That's where we 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.000 want to go. As we noted, the superlatives continue the 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:38.000 maker at the center of the artificial intelligence boom and 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:40.920 Video shares topping one thousand dollars for the first time. 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:44.559 We talked about the market cap a blowout quarter, So 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:46.680 let's get to it. Back with us is Bloomberg News 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.640 US Semiconductor and Networking reporter Ian King. He's in our 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.680 San Francisco bureau. Ian, you know the superlatives. We're watching 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:56.120 the stock up above one thousand dollars for the first time, 0:00:56.320 --> 0:01:00.000 soaring in today's session. Walk us through all the number 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.240 that showed Nvidia continues to deliver in your view. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:07.319 I mean, obviously, the first place to start is with 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:11.679 the revenue guidance analysts were looking for doubling year of 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:14.679 a year in this current quarter. In Video said, yeah, 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:16.240 we can do that, and we can do a bit more. 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:20.240 So even though there were lofty expectations, they managed to 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:26.280 set expectations even higher. The data center business is already 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:31.720 bigger than Intel an AMD, and it's getting bigger quicker 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:35.039 than people had projected more than four hundred percent a 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:37.880 year on year increase in that particular business. So all 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:42.280 of the fundamental numbers that in Vidia need to show 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.720 we're heading in the right direction, it was able to 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:45.240 deliver on. 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.520 It's pretty again, incredible to see the stock reaction today. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.120 Shares hired by more than ten percent as we speak 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.200 right now. Ian was I was a little struck, and 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.120 Carol mentioned this by a couple of the things that 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.080 they also announced the ten to one stock split coming 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.720 next month, and then increasing the dividend. Curious if you 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:03.040 have any thoughts on either of those things. 0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:06.160 Well, I mean, you know, as you were just discussing 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.760 with Bailey, I believe that the stock split is something 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:11.960 that's aimed at retail investors, but it's also aimed at 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:16.440 their internal audience as well. A certain percentage of the 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:19.600 shares get bought by individuals. You know, they get like 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:23.760 a discount slash, you know, allowance that they can buy 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:25.840 at a certain point. So you know they want to 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:28.600 want to keep their employees happily. Right, you need those engineers, 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:31.960 you need those that staff. That's that's you know, so 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.359 invested in what you're doing. So that might be part 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:34.919 of it as well. 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:36.639 Can I ask you though, because I did scratch my 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:37.680 head a little bit about it. 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:37.959 I don't know. 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:39.920 I was going back and forth with a brother of 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:42.120 mine who has been in an Nvidia for years, and 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:42.960 we're going back and. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:44.359 Got to get it your brother on. 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:45.280 The show, I don't know that. 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:48.960 Yeah, he's pretty smart, just really well read. But about 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:51.480 the dividend, because I always feel like companies do that 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:54.000 when maybe growth is slowing or something to kind of 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:56.920 keep investors happy. Is there something, though, connected with that 0:02:57.000 --> 0:02:59.560 stock split that they raise the dividends so much? 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:03.480 I mean, for some in conductor companies which are massively 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:07.680 capital intensive, even when they don't own their own manufacturing, 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.720 that the question is how much are they spending as 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:15.359 a percentage of their revenue on R and D, on design, 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.840 on making sure that the next product's coming along? And 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.080 you look, you know, Nvidia is one of the highest, 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.160 one of the biggest spenders by any measure in the 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.200 chip industry. So as long as they're doing that, I 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:29.280 would say that most in Vidia watchers don't care. It's 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:31.680 just something nice to have. On the other side of. 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.120 Things, well, you talk about the R and D spend 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.080 and it really, you know, certainly seems to be paying 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.280 off for Nvidia. Having said that, talk to us about 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.120 the development cycle, and I bring it up because I 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.840 was listening to Bloomberg Intelligence man Deep Seeing earlier. I 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.840 think it was on surveillance this morning about how for 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:51.440 Nvidia it's kind of a shorter time like almost every year, 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.280 and that that is going to require companies who want 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:56.920 to have the latest and greatest from Nvidia and in 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.400 the AI chip world, that they're going to be adjusting 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:03.200 their CAPEX been to include that every year. So maybe 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:07.080 you know, different from Moore's law, right that you know, 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.280 the increase in terms of components on a circuit and 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:14.840 processing ability doubling every year for ten years. So maybe 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.279 something's different. I don't know. Is it is it shorter, 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:21.960 is it a much more kind of you know, new 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:26.920 development cycle for Nvidia that's going to keep these numbers growing. Sorry, 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:29.000 I'm not being very eloquent because you're smarter less than 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:29.280 I am. 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:32.559 Not at all. No, you're going to a good point 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.640 here and within It has numerous aspects to it. Basically, 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:38.160 what Jensen Lang, the CEO said, he said, Look, we 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:41.880 were bringing new product market for this market roughly sort 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:45.080 of every eighteen months or so. Now we're going to 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:46.840 do it every year. We're going to do it every 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:50.000 year for a number of reasons. He you know, put 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:53.200 that the salesman routine. Look, we're helping our customers. This 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:56.799 market is changing rapidly, so we need to bring soft 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.159 and market much much quicker than we were doing. To 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:02.480 help support is to help bring these new capabilities. Everybody 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:06.640 wins everything, you know, the pace of innovation increases. Flip 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:08.800 side of that is, you remember earlier this year we 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:13.120 were talking about what AMD's doing, what Intel's doing. You know, 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:14.799 how are they going to get into the market. And 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.400 what Jensen Wang has basically said to them is like 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:19.919 that moving train that you are trying to catch is 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:20.960 going even faster. 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:21.279 Good. 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:25.000 Look, So that's what's really going on on a competitive 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:25.960 basis there as well. 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:27.839 And more's law I meant doubling every two years, So 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:30.000 forgive me, yeah, so much faster here. 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:31.400 You know, Ian, I want to to that end of 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:33.320 this of jumping on that train, I want to talk 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:35.680 a little bit about margins, because the company said that 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.560 margins for the gross margins will be seventy five point 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:45.080 seven five percent in the current quarter. As you noted, 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.279 this is more like a software company rather than a 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:49.719 chip company. And you yesterday talked about Intel being in 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.920 the low sixties at its height, when it really owned 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.840 the server market. What can history tell us about the 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:59.599 duration and durability of margins like this for a chip company. 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:03.200 Yeah, I mean right now, their margins are what they 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:06.599 want them to be because it's just really a case of, well, 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:10.279 our prices a sky high, were sold out. We can 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:13.400 essentially charge what we want, so obviously the pricing is 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.680 very good for margins. On the flip side of that, 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.280 as we just discussed, they can spend what they want. 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:20.000 It's you know, how much do we want to spend 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.520 on R and D, how well do we want to 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:26.760 reward our employees. So the margins are sky high, but 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.600 they could make them artificially higher. The fact that they're 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:33.840 spending heavily. The fact that they're able to charge a lot, 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:37.880 that's something that's going to probably persist. So they're setting 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:40.440 very high targets, but they could be even higher, So 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.040 you know, as a measure of their health, it's pretty good. 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.560 Do you agree with Jensen's comment that the freight train 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:50.039 is now moving faster and these companies will have a 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.680 more difficult time, the AMDs and the like will have 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:54.520 a more difficult time catching up with Nvidia. 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:58.880 I mean Jensen's racing. I mean that one of the 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:02.120 things that comes across in pretty much any time he 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:06.960 says something, he's constantly aware of the tension that exists 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.160 in his business and his market, and he's consciously trying 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:14.000 to shape post what his company does and his understanding 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:17.040 of the relationships, where we are in the cycle, where 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:19.760 we are relative to the competition, what the customers want. 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.480 He's trying to shape his narrative to fit that. He's 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:26.040 very clever, and he's showing people that he understands what's 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:29.000 going on and what he has to do to stay ahead, 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:32.600 and that kind of institutional paranoia, that history of being 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.480 the little guy still very much present in what he's doing. 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.280 All right, thirty seconds left here, So who is most 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:40.520 likely to catch up to Nvidia? And when. 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:45.520 I mean for the talk to me this time next year, 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:48.480 And there might be somebody, but right now it looks 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:50.400 like everybody's just picking up the scraps. 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:55.520 Unbelievable and just a fascinating story. Ian, Thank you. I 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:57.120 know it's been a busy twenty four hours for you, 0:07:57.200 --> 0:07:59.880 so we really appreciate it. Ian King. Are Us Semikin, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.200 actor and networking reporter at Bloomberg News joining us from 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.560 our San Francisco bureau as we mentioned, and VideA shares 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.600 continuing to trade higher, still up about ten percent in 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:12.680 today's session, and again you're now looking at a two 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.720 point five almost two point six trillion dollar market cap company, 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.320 so it is in the league of some of the 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.560 largest market cap companies in the world. 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.280 So far this year, Carol, this was after yesterday's block 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:26.600 yet last year's blockbuster year for the company in video 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:29.360 shares are hired by one hundred and eleven percent. 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:31.640 Yeah, I think it's the third best performing group in 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.520 the name in the S and P this year, after 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:35.760 being number one last year. 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:40.040 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast catch US 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:43.319 Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:45.520 on Apple card Play and then brought auto with a 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:48.559 Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube. 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.800 Well for November presidential election in US, now less than 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:55.680 six months away, there's a new variable to consider, and 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.360 as far fetched as it may sound, the prospect of 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.360 Donald Trump, should he find himself back in the Oval 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:04.319 Office and then never leaving, is weighing big time on 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:05.559 the minds of some voters. 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:08.560 The story featured in the forthcoming issue of BusinessWeek magazine, 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.360 soon on newstands and now at on Bloomberg dot com 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.839 and at Bloomberg dot com Slash BusinessWeek, also of course 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.480 on the terminal with more on his story, Bloomberg businesswek 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:19.520 national correspondent Josh Green. Josh the author of The Rebels 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.360 Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, AOC and The Rise of the 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:25.840 New Left. Also the author of the bestseller Devil's Bargain 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:28.800 Steve Bennon, Donald Trump and the Storming of the Presidency. 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:32.080 Josh joins us from our Washington, DC bureau. Josh, what's 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:35.320 going on here with the former president's rhetoric? What his 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:39.600 advisors close to him? Are telling you, and the idea 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:43.440 of taking him seriously but not literally kind of comes 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:44.320 to mind when I read this. 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:48.720 Yeah, well, I've been talking to a Republican and Democratic 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:52.240 strategist recently who'd mentioned that they were seeing something strange 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.600 in the focus groups and polls they were conducting, and 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.840 that is that a lot of swing voters were worried 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.520 that Trump was going to declare himself president for life 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.360 if he's reelected in November. And as I did some 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:05.880 reporting on the source of these worries, basically this is 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.679 something that Trump likes to joke about. Of course, there 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:10.760 was the January sixth riots that gave a lot of 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:14.320 people pause. But it's a factor that I think isn't 0:10:14.360 --> 0:10:17.679 being paid a lot of attention to. But both Republican 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.920 and Democratic strategists are seeing it and wondering if this 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.280 is going to have an effect on the outcome in November. 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.000 You know, it's interesting and Josh, we don't certainly have 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:29.679 to tell you, but this idea that former president Donald 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:31.839 Trump will say something and people be like, well, that's 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:33.600 Donald Trump, Like you know what I mean, They're kind 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:37.880 of dismissive. Is there something though different? As he runs 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:39.880 for a second go at the White House. 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:42.959 Yeah, I think there are a couple of things. I mean, 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.120 as you mentioned, you know, the Trump people sort of 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.520 laugh this office. This is just Trump being Trump. You know. 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.240 He likes to say outrageous things to get a rise 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.319 out of liberals. He's talked a little bit about will 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:56.840 should I maybe serve three terms just this past weekend 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.400 an our rally, for instance. But while a lot of 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:02.600 people write off as just Trump being Trump, this particular 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:04.760 group of voters seems to be listening to it and 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:08.840 worrying about it. And as strategists have kind of plumbed 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:12.000 the reason for this, they've come up with some interesting theories, 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:14.000 And the best one I heard was that it was 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:17.679 really what was driving this fear was the Supreme Court's 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:22.520 decision to overturn Roe versus Wade. A Democratic strategist told 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.440 me that what that did was convince a lot of 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:30.840 ordinary voters that things they wouldn't have imagined possible, like 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:35.720 Rovers's way being overturned or Trump abolishing term limit suddenly 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.440 seemed real enough that these voters were worrying about it, 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:40.480 and it seemed to be pushing at least some of 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:42.760 them back into Joe Biden's camp. 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:44.800 Well, you get into the piece that the idea of 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:49.280 president serving only two terms, whether consecutive or not, hasn't 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:52.280 been in the Constitution since the days of the Founding 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:54.680 Fathers by any means. It was ratified in the nineteen 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:58.840 fifties after FDR served more than two terms. Can you 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.440 talk a little bit about the history of presidents since 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.880 nineteen fifty talking about the potential repealed the twenty second 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:06.839 Amendment or at least alluding to the idea of serving 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:07.959 more than two terms. 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:08.720 Yeah. 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:10.320 Absolutely, I mean, as I did a kind of a 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:13.520 deep dive in this piece. What was interesting was almost 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.080 immediately when the twenty second Amend, after the twenty second 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:20.480 Amendment was passed, popular presidents and their advisors in both 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.360 parties have kind of objected to it. Ronald Reagan said 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.560 in nineteen eighty seven he would like to overturn it. 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.040 Democrats in the House of Representatives twice, once during Bill 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:34.239 Clinton's presidency once during Barack Obama's tried to push legislation 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:38.319 overturning it. So it's something that popular presidents sort of 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.840 chafe at. But that being said, that the hurdle to 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:45.360 actually get it overturned in abolished term limits is almost 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:50.680 unthinkably difficult. It would require large majorities in both houses 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:55.719 of Congress, that would require large majorities of state legislatures 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.120 to approve it. So it's not something that's plausibly going 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:02.000 to happen. And yet still people have learned that Trump 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.920 is a norm breaker. It's something that gives them pause 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.240 and it's weighing on them as they make their decision 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:08.520 on who to vote for in November. 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:10.480 Hey, Josh, there are focus groups, and then there are 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.200 focus groups by those who have been doing them for 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.160 some time that maybe you sit up a little bit 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.360 straighter and take note, and is that kind of what's 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:18.440 going on? Because I am curious. I think it was 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:22.840 the Democratic individual in your story from David Binder Research, 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:26.600 who's been doing these focus groups for a long time, 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.120 Like I just do wonder is there something that just 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.640 makes everybody kind of be like, wait a minute, there's 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.080 something different this time around, because you're like, as you said, 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.280 it not the first president to maybe say yeah, I'd 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:37.240 like another term. 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:39.959 Yeah, I think that's I think that's exactly what's going on. 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:42.400 I mean, if you go back to twenty twenty and 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.839 the January sixth, Uprising. It's sort of shaken a lot 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:49.000 of people and made them realize that, well, maybe things 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.360 aren't as smooth as we expect. The focus group guy 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:54.840 that you were referring to has sort of said, you know, historically, 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.600 when we conduct these focus groups and we throw out 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:01.160 these kind of wild scenarios, val push back and say oh, 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.120 that could never happen. But that kind of pushback now, 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.440 he says, has stopped in his focus groups. I was 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.520 able to sit in on a couple of these and 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.040 sort of see this myself, and people are just much 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:15.080 more willing to believe that crazy things can happen, and 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.360 that maybe one of those crazy things will be Trump 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.520 declaring himself president for life. As implausible as that sounds, 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:22.520 I think to most voters. 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:24.880 Well, it was struck by a woman who you spoke 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:28.080 to who actually said that she would vote for Biden 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.760 even if he is in a coma, despite the fact 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:34.040 that back in twenty sixteen she voted for former President 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:36.720 Trump during that election. Talk to me a little bit 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.440 about her thinking, Josh, and how this could move the 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.040 needle with the undecided voters. 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.320 Yeah, Well, the people I was focusing on in this 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:47.240 piece really were that narrow group of undecided voters who 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.040 are going to decide the election. A lot of committed 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:53.240 Republicans like it when Trump talks about abolishing term moments. 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.600 A lot of Democrats like to get upset about it, 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.080 but their votes aren't really up for grabs on either side. 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.520 So the focus of these focus groups and the voters 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.800 that I talked to were people who had either been 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:09.080 former Trump voters former Biden voters, were now undecided. The 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.080 woman you mentioned, Laura McCammon, is a grandmother in Wisconsin 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.960 I talked to. Voted for Trump in twenty sixteen, but 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:18.960 as she's witnessed January sixth, she's listened to, you know, 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:24.160 maga media figures like Steve Bannon talk about multiple terms. 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.040 It scared her into deciding that she wouldn't risk another 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.600 vote for Donald Trump. And she told me, as you said, 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:32.200 she's planning to vote for Biden in November no matter what. 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.720 Hey, you know, while we have you and one thing 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:37.320 we wanted to ask you, and this was certainly a 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.240 story that we've been talking about this week a lot, 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:43.840 and this has to do with Donald Trump. A video 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:47.800 posted to his social media account the report, Yeah, to 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.880 his that referenced a unified Reich as a potential news 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.960 headline if you won a second term. You know, Devil's 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:57.960 Bargain bestseller, You know, you really got inside Steve Bannon 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:01.000 and the road to the White House for Donald Trump 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:04.480 the first go round. How are you thinking about some 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:08.240 of the terminology that's being used, the rhetoric that's being 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:10.160 used by Donald Trump. 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.400 Well, this is something that we've seen going all the 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:15.760 way back to Trump's first run in twenty fifteen and 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.720 twenty sixteen, that kind of winking at the far right, 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:23.920 either through phrases or memes or videos or what have you. 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:26.600 I don't know whether this was intentional or not, but 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:31.000 you know, given Trump's background, given the praise he heaped 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.520 on some of the Charlottesville protesters in twenty seventeen, another 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:39.720 earlier controversy over anti Semitism, it's something that people in 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.320 the press and people in the electro I think are 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.560 very alert. So something like this pops up in a 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:46.320 Trump video, you see the media pouncing, you see the 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:50.400 attention to it, and it's something that the Trump campaign, 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:54.320 either intentionally or unintentionally, hasn't really managed to fix and 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.880 bottle up. And kind of clean up their campaign. But 0:16:57.920 --> 0:16:59.760 I think we can see based on this it's something 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:01.040 that we're going to have to keep an eye on 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:01.920 going forward. 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.240 Right and certainly those undecided voters are keeping an eye 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.440 on too. That maybe explains what you just talked about 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.560 in your story. Hey Bloomberg, Bloomberg Business Week National correspondent 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:12.000 Josh Green, Josh, thank you so much. 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:18.160 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.480 each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.159 and and Royd Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:27.480 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:41.080 New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.640 Well, this graduation seasons over the next few weeks are 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.760 months hopefully young people will be going off to their 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:51.040 first post college jobs. Bloomberg opinion columnist Alison Schreeger covers economics, 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:52.800 and she writes in one of the most read stories 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:55.440 on the Bloomberg terminal about an interesting trend that she's noticed, 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.359 at least according to one recent survey, and that's that 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:01.439 more graduates are looking to job in the public sector. 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:03.840 They are Alison Schrager a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:06.520 Institute in addition to being a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. She 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:10.520 jes us here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio. So 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:13.159 an important caveat. Some of your best friends work in 0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:13.640 the government. 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:15.679 Actually I don't have a lot of friends in government, 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:18.480 but you wrote in the piece. Yeah, but you know, 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.960 there's no shame. I mean, it's a reasonable, it's a 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:23.200 respectable career path. 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:24.199 It is. 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:26.160 We all know people who work in the government. All right, 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:27.679 tell us what's going on. I have a twenty one 0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:29.439 year old just get one more year in college, but 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:34.800 I will say that working in the government is certainly 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:35.760 on her radar. 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:38.800 Really, yes, well, because I was surprised because the survey, 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:41.320 you know, did a lot of sort of hype about, ooh, 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:43.240 government is up and tech is down. And then you 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:45.480 saw the numbers and it was like up from five 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:47.360 and a half to seven and a half percent and 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:49.679 tech is down from twenty three to twenty one. So 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:51.840 you're like, all right, well, mean, people still prefer tech. 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:54.919 But what really concerned me was that there was another 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:57.440 like the listing of what you're looking for in a job, 0:18:57.560 --> 0:19:01.480 and the number one thing by far overwhelming was stability, 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:05.520 and last was a fast growing company, which is just 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:07.360 like when you're young. I mean, like if you get 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.040 on a fast grown company path, like this is how 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:10.359 you get like rich and successful. 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:11.960 Well, we love how you start the story, like in 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:14.359 a week where we have been obsessed with Nvidia and 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:16.919 still are that. Everybody's looking for their Nvidia, right, you 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:18.520 want to be with that company that's going to be 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:20.840 the hot new thing. Hopefully get in early, get options, 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:22.280 and make a lot of money, like that's it. 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:25.320 Yeah, but no, they want stability. 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:27.760 I will I will say for my daughter, I don't 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:29.240 know that that's it. She's gonna hate me that I'm 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:29.919 talking about her. 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:31.440 She's not even a senior. 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:35.800 No, but they start early and there's a lot of pressure, 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:39.600