WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 13, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferroh, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.360 with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hordern. Join us each 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.360 day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.720 geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.400 are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:31.000 nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:33.479 or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:37.680 Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Israel launching another 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:41.000 round of attacks on several locations in Iran. President Trump 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:44.479 reportably telling ABC QUO, I think it's been excellent and 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:46.760 there's more to come. Joining us now to discuss is 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.599 Dannington on the Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:51.040 Goo Mornic. 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:52.120 Thank you for having me do. 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:53.880 Thank you for sharing some of your time with us, 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:56.520 because I'm sure you've been exceptionally busy. Let's just talk 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:59.840 about where things stand right now. Is this operation on 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:02.440 and ultimately one of the gals. 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:04.720 Where the gods are very clear, we want to be 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:07.200 sure that they will not put the threat not only 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:11.560 against Israel, but against the entire Western civilization, and specifically, 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:15.480 we have two main goals. To eliminate the nuclear capabilities 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:18.480 and to stop the production of ballistic missiles. And let 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:20.520 me elaborate on that. You know, it's not only the 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:23.800 nuclear weapons. We all know about the UNU enrichment and 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:26.520 about that they're getting very close to put a bomb together. 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:29.040 But to look at what they're doing with the ballistic missiles. 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:31.560 They want to They wanted to be at the same 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:33.520 level of the US and Russia in terms of the 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:37.520 quantity and the technology of the ballistic missiles. We couldn't 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:41.039 allow it to happen. We got intel about their intentions 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.240 to create another attack against Israel. You know, we all 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.959 remember what happened on October seventh, But this time they 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:51.160 wanted to use thousands of ballistic missiles and invade into 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:52.400 it well with their proxies. 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:54.400 So it was a preemptive attack. 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.920 So we will continue until we will be sure that 0:01:57.960 --> 0:01:59.760 we eliminated those two capabilities. 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.880 Share rank you right now, Well, we will. 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:04.800 Have to wait and see the result of the attack 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:05.720 of last night. 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:07.080 It was a major attack. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:12.960 More than two hundred aircraft participated in the attack. Many targets, 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:19.520 many senior military officials were eliminated last night, and we 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.680 will continue until we will know that one is in 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.280 the point that they cannot continue with the efforts. 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:29.240 Including the IRGC General commander. Is there an intent for 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:32.440 regime changing around from Israel, Well. 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:35.000 That's not our goal. You know, we are concerned about 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:38.160 the threats to it. Well, for the Iranian people, I 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:40.400 wish they will have a different regime. 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:42.280 You know, we saw what happened in the one. 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:45.120 The people are suffering there that have no way hitting 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:48.919 the winter, no ac in the summer, that are suffering there. 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.840 But our goals is to eliminate the capabilities of A 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.079 one so they will not be able to threaten us. 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:55.920 And then when you look at the map, we have 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:58.440 no border with A one. It takes us hours to 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.960 fly there in order to attack those facilities. But still 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:06.320 they spend billions of dollars to create threats against Israel. 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:10.240 This nuclear enrichment is deep into the mountains. How long 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.200 will that victory actually take? And it's called Rising Lion? 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:14.119 Why is that? 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:16.560 Well, you know, every time we pick a name when 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.359 we have a military operation, sometimes the computer is doing 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:22.359 it for us. So there is no real meaning for 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.800 the world of the operation. But I would say that 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:30.440 Ia published recently that they ran at the enough urvenium 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.960 to create not only one bomb, multiple bombs, so it's 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.720 only it was a matter of days to put it together. 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:39.040 We decided not to wait, not to take that risk. 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:42.200 We believed the threats of the Iranian when they said 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:45.360 that they're going to use those ballistic missiles to destroy 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.240 is well, we took it very seriously. 0:03:47.480 --> 0:03:49.640 How much did the Israeli government brief. 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:50.280 The US government? 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:53.400 So we talked with the US, but this decision was 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:57.480 decided in Jerusalem, and we took that decision independently, not 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.920 for the first time in the eighties and on too. 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.520 Remind you we attacked the nuclear actor in Iraq. We 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.400 took the decision by ourselves when we attack the reactor 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:08.680 in Syria. I think it will serve the US and 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:12.040 other Western democracies, but it was a decision that was 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:12.720 made in Israel. 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.760 Do you think the United States will come to not 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:18.960 just Israeli defense, but potentially if you're needing help with 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.320 more attacks, if this continues for days and. 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:24.840 Weeks, Well, since the day that was established, we never 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:28.440 asked the US to fight for US. We know how 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.240 to fight and we know how to defeat our enemies. 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:33.560 You know, we have heard threats that Dirnia that are 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:36.920 threatening the US, targets that are threatening the allies of 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:41.279 the US in your embassy right, So we take precautions 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:45.400 in different places around the world. We are aware of 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:48.120 the threats, but we will continue. Also in Israel. We 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:49.919 have to be honest, you know, in needwel today we 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:53.640 are getting ready for serious attacks coming from Iran. It 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:56.360 will be very intense, intense in Israel in the next 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:59.880 few days. We are preparing the population in this operation. 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:03.440 It's not only about the bravery of the pilots, it's 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:05.839 about the population in Israel. They will have to follow 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.120 the guidelines in order to avoid casualties. 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:10.680 Ambassadors, you know, the United States is system themselves from 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:12.240 this in the last twenty four NS and said they 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:13.960 weren't pound of the attack. What's not clear to us 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:16.920 is whether they assisted in the defense of Israel. Did 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.600 the well, you know we have capabilities and we are 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:23.560 Did they assist you when they sent over drafts from 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:26.760 Iran to Israel? Did you receive any help from partners 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:27.719 outside of Israel? 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:31.799 Well, as far as I know that we were able 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:35.240 to deal with the ones by ourselves and in a way. 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:37.320 But we have to realize, you know, the threat is 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:40.560 not only against the Israel as I said earlier, iranly 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:44.200 threatening the allies of the US in the Gulf. So 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:46.640 we have the capabilities. I'm not sure they have the 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:47.640 same capabilities. 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.320 Are you worried about an asymmetrical response from Iran? 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:54.280 Well, we took into consideration that there will be retaliation 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:55.040 and marine and. 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:56.120 We will be proportional. 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:58.839 Well, they know that we have capabilities as well, so 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:02.680 they will have to think twice before the attackers and 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.800 what they are doing. And I would say that today 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:07.480 we can reach every target in Iran. 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.040 We have the control in terms of. 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:14.359 Our pilot to reach every target. 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:17.719 Well, you know we have the capability. We focused on 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:20.560 on the gore the earlier I mentioned earlier, the ballistic 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:23.640 missile infrastructure and the nuclear facilities. 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:26.080 How long will that take if you were to reach 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:27.200 every target. 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:30.760 Well, it's not going to be a short operation, and 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.800 it will be weeks or months. I wouldn't say months, 0:06:33.800 --> 0:06:35.680 but it can take days or weeks. 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:39.000 How lonely this is round the United Nations at the moment. 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:40.159 Well, I will let you. 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:42.320 Know in a few minutes when I go there, Jonathan. 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.200 But it's gonna be it's gonna be tough for US. 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.920 Iran already called for the Security Council to meet public 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:51.159 what happened this afternoon. But you know, I will tell 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.400 my colleague that the U n where were you in 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:56.680 the last ten years when I ran threatened this? Well, 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:59.560 where were you when the same ballistic missiles? Where were 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:02.960 you when they actually acquire the nuclear capabilities? 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.960 So you know what will not stop Iran is well. 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:09.640 Will the international response. Saudi Arabia calling it heiness, the 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:13.680 NATO Secretary General calling for de escalation, the UN Secretary 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:17.120 General calling from maximum restrain. Do you think there is 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.840 a diplomatic group when it comes to dealing with this regime? 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.840 Well, I think that they you know already you have 0:07:23.880 --> 0:07:28.200 the diplomatic Act and the time for that will come. 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.920 But we saw that the diplomacy didn't convince Iran to 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:36.560 change courts. You know, for decades they negotiated, they played 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.560 the game. The light we found we had the intel 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:43.960 that they are developing nuclear capabilities for military usage. 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:47.840 There's some analysis so that under the JCPOA, they were restrained, 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:48.840 they were capped. 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:50.040 They are not capped. 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:53.320 Now when it comes to enrichment, well, you know with 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.120 the without the JCPOA, they were continuing. 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.480 And what only recently that you know. 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.440 The alongside the reactors and the plan that was supervised 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:07.320 by the international community, they developed a military capability that 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:10.360 they were hiding it from the international community. So once 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:13.960 we realized that going to that direction, we decided to 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:14.440 stop that. 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.200 Ambassador, we appreciate your time this morning. Thanks for making 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:19.520 take for I'm sure you're gonna have an exceptionally busy 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:20.800 down ahead of you, so thank. 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:20.920 You, sir. 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:23.520 The Israeli Ambassador to the UN Dannyton on there and 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:35.800 the latest attacks on Iran, it's the latest this morning. 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:39.480 Investor's rushing into bonds, pushing gilds lower. Briefly, as tensions 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.200 between Israel and Iran reached a boiling point, joining US 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:45.559 natural discusses, Robert said of PGM. Rob I said briefly, 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:47.880 because yields now up, particularly at the front end, by 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.080 about two basis points, it feels like a tug of 0:08:50.120 --> 0:08:53.240 war between natural risk, a version out of risk assets 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:57.080 to something else, plus an inflation redevelopment. What would you 0:08:57.120 --> 0:08:59.240 put more weight on one versus the other? 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:03.800 Right well, actually, for right now, the market is in 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:08.160 some respects putting more emphasis on the FED this point 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.240 in the cycle. I mean, actually from the best levels. 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:13.640 At some points overnight we've seen some flattening of the 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:18.199 Yell curve, where effectively having a higher oil price reduces 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:23.120 the odds of FED rate cuts, which then is positive 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.680 for the inflation outlook, you know, leads to a flatter curve. 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:31.960 And you know, so that's rather ironic, but we've seen 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:35.120 a lot of these situations in the Middle East over 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:39.200 the years, you know, going back, and they're all at 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.559 different points in economic cycles. So when you go back 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:43.920 to nineteen ninety, you know that was hitting in the 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.800 middle of a recession. This one is hitting in the 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:50.200 middle of a pretty firm economic backdrop, albeit one with 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:53.040 a lot of anxiety. But it leads to a different 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:54.800 kind of market reaction to. 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:56.040 Your point, staying points, Mensa. 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:58.000 So let's talk about the stancing point with my some 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.760 progress on inflation, full consentctive month of downside surprises. Where 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.200 are we now, Robert, and do we risk upending some 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:05.439 of the progress we've made. 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:11.320 Definitely. You know, we have had three good months of inflation. 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.760 But the problem with this cycle is before the three 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.800 months of good inflation, we had three months of terrible inflation. 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:20.800 And then before that last year there were months of 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:23.360 good and then months of bad and not just one, 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:25.800 but a few and a crack. And that's why this 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.160 has been such a difficult cycle for people to get 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:30.679 their arms around. And the same has been true on 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:33.720 the real economic activity, where you get a few strong 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:36.200 months a few week months, and so the Fed is 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.000 in this constant pull and pull, a push and pull of. 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:40.160 Oh yeah, we've succeeded. 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:41.880 We're going to be able to cut interest rates, although 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:46.360 we have to really stand tough. And already most inflation 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.360 forecasters were looking for inflation to go up as a 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:53.640 result of tariffs. If not in yesterday's warning, yesterday morning's number, 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.880 definitely in the next several numbers that are coming. 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:58.840 So it thanks the question, rob, let me jump in 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:00.679 at the time we have left. What does it mean 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:02.640 for the Fed next Wednesday when they've got to put 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:03.439 out full costs. 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:10.080 Yeah, so they're definitely going to be on hold and evaluating, 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:12.640 and I think it's going to make them very reluctant 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:15.240 to even change their dots to make any fine tuning. 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.400 They're going to want to say they need more information. 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:22.680 And going back to that nineteen ninety incident where people think, 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:27.280 you know Kuwaits, you know, being invaded and the Iraqis 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.800 being repulsed was very quick. That actually took a few 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:31.360 months for the price of oil to make it all 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:33.520 the way up to the top. So these things can 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:36.160 take some time to evaluate. We're not in a weak 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.840 economic backdrop. The Fed's going to have time to evaluate. 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:40.760 I think they're going to stand pat try to talk 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:45.160 down volatility, talk about the firm underrelying situation. 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:47.959 Robert f Pa, Jim rub appreciate at the time so 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:59.880 as to make consign for us this morning to spend 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.480 time on the potential Iranian response. We can do that 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.960 now with Stephen Kirk, the Senior Fellow for Middle East 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:08.040 and Africa Studies of the Council on Foreign Relations. Stephen, 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:10.880 welcome to the program sir. What a timely opportunity to 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:12.959 catch up with you, Stephen. Can we start with I 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.360 Runian defense and military capabilities, how degraded they've been, how 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.679 greated they've become, and not just Theirs, but also the 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:21.839 military capabilities of Iranian proxies as well. 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.720 What is the current state of play? Yeah? 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:30.959 Well, reporting coming out of Iran and Israeli reporting indicates 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.680 that a tremendous amount of damage has been done to 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:40.320 Iran's ability to respond. Her reports of James Bond like 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:46.559 Mozart operations in which they have disabled the ability of 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:50.760 the Iranians to launch large numbers of ballistic missiles towards Israel, 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:57.000 that they have targeted Iran's air defenses so that Iran 0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:59.960 is more vulnerable than ever. Thus far, the only thing 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.559 that the Irans have been able to muster or a 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:06.160 wave of UAV strikes, most of which I believe have 0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.680 been shot down. As far as the proxies go. His 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:13.280 Belaw has said it will not respond to Israel's attacks 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.400 on Iran, and in fact, the Lebanese government has said 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.120 it will make sure that his BiLaw does not respond 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.440 to Israel's attacks on Iran. We haven't yet heard from 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:26.119 the Iraqi militias, but in the past, specifically last October 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:30.200 when the Israelis hit Iran previously, the Iraqi militious have 0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:35.400 said that they weren't interested in retaliation, that leaves the Huthis, 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.960 and we'll have to see how they respond. But by 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.079 early accounts, the Israelis have done a very significant amount 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.559 of damage to Iran's ability to strike effectively. 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:48.160 Of course, its early days. 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.240 The Iranians may have some tricks up their sleeves, but 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:54.839 right now all the advantage goes to the Israelis, who 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:58.320 are once again undertaking attacks against Iran. 0:13:58.600 --> 0:13:58.960 Steven. 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:00.560 If it's true that the US and Israel have a 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.640 tight security relationship, why would Israel choose to act in 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:05.959 the United States. 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:11.080 Not, Well, we don't know for sure whether the United 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:12.840 States was not in on this. There is a lot 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:15.559 of Israeli reporting suggesting that this was the last few days. 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.080 We're in an elaborate deception campaign. But I think, in 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:22.920 keeping with the President's worldview, Defense Secretary Pete Heggs had 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:25.680 said it best before Congress just the other day, in 0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:28.240 which he said Prime Minister Natanya is going to do 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:30.280 what's best for his country, and President Trump's going to 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:32.640 do what's best for the United States. I think the 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.600 Israelis view is that the Iranians in recent weeks have 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.960 crossed a certain threshold and that they just could not wait. 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:44.000 There is a fair amount of Israel US security coordination 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:46.840 and nas these attacks were unfolding, It's likely that the 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.960 United States provided real time intelligence to the Israelis, and 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:53.600 of course, in retaliation. Because Israel is part of Senkom, 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.240 the United States and Israel and other regional partners will 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.760 cooperate in defense of Israel as a result of that. 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:02.440 It remains to be seen. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.200 I think the president's posts on social media this morning 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.960 would suggest he'd like to have it both ways, and 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:09.440 maybe when you're the president of the United States he 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.640 gets to have it both ways. But I think more 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:15.760 needs to be We need to find out more about 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:17.040 the actual US role here. 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.920 You just insinuated that you don't think this would hinder 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:23.440 the US response in defending Israel. So do you expect 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.880 the US to come out in full force and Israeli 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.200 defense when we see Iran's retaliation. 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.240 We already see in this Sencom area of operations the 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.240 Jordanian Air Force is shooting down Iranian drones and that 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:38.320 is in coordination with the United States. 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:40.200 So yes, I do think that the United. 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.960 States will help them the defense at Israel in the 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:48.160 event of a kind of massive Iranian response, And I 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:50.160 do think that the United States would get involved if 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.760 the Iranian seek to respond by, for example, closing the 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:57.160 straight up removes or attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf. 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:01.040 We've been talking about for months, actually years, about Iranian 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.040 enrichment and these breakout periods. 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.360 Why now, Stephen Well? 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:11.480 I think the Iranians have been working diligently at this 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:15.240 and that their security situation has deteriorated over the course 0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:20.480 of recent months. I think we should be skeptical about 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:23.920 the reports over these many years that Iran was not 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.680 seeking to weaponize its program and has been diligently working 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:32.760 throughout in order to develop weapons capability. I was privy 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:36.480 to an open source briefing just recently which made it 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.760 clear that the Iranians really have never stopped their efforts 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.920 to develop nuclear weapons. 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:44.520 So do you think today's attack was all about where 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:47.080 they are in terms of their capability when it comes 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:50.400 to their nuclear program, or is there something else Israel 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:52.800 knows that we have yet to be briefed on. 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.400 Well, I think the Israeli for these relatives, a certain 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:02.000 threshold had been breached and they felt that they did 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:06.240 not have much time left before the Iranians weaponize, but 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.600 I think that there's a broader goal here for the Israelis. 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.480 The way this attack is unfolding is quite similar to 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.080 what the Israelis did to his Belaw in the fall 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.560 of twenty twenty four, essentially an effort to decapitate the regime, 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:22.720 make it render it render its ability to respond effectively 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:29.040 quite weak, and provide an opportunity for the change in regime. 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:33.760 It is the Iranian regime that is the danger, not 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.480 necessarily Iran or the Iranian military or even the Iran 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.680 nuclear program. Is the regime and what their intentions are 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:43.240 to do with it. If you change the regime, you 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:47.360 provide an opportunity for perhaps a more benign government. 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:48.480 There an opportunity. 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.160 It's a very, very risky strategy, but it seems clear 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.919 based on how the Israelis have attacked the IRGC leadership, 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.960 the military leadership, and he even reportedly took a shot 0:17:58.119 --> 0:17:59.560 at the Supreme Leader himself. 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:01.960 Even I want to follow up on this. What you're 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:04.080 saying is really quite important, because what I've heard so 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:07.040 far this morning is something quite different. That this was 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.280 a targeted, limited operation to degrade the military and nuclear 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:13.879 capabilities of this country and that regime change was something bigger, 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:18.320 something that they weren't pursuing. If the Iranian regime believes 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:20.879 that the Israelis are looking to tople the regime and 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:23.320 they view this as the start of an existential threat, 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.879 how does that shape their response in the coming weeks 0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:28.680 and months, Because I can tell you from a financial 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:31.159 market perspective, a lot of people are thinking about the 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.760 Strait of Homers and some people would sit here and 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:37.240 say that's the big cup, the nuclear option. They wouldn't 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:40.200 reach for that. Maybe they look to de escalate things 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.560 from here. Are you saying this could play out differently? 0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:43.840 Oh? 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:45.560 I certainly think that that's the case, and I think 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.560 that people are missing the point here. Prime Minister Benjamina 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.480 Dnialo has for months been talking about the Iranian people, 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:54.359 how the Runian people are suffering under this. 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.320 Regime, that. 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:02.719 A different regime would be better for the Iranian people, 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:06.040 And so I think that there is absolutely a broader 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:10.280 goal that is here. The Israelis promised Prime Minister Natanao 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:13.560 himself promised on October ninth, twenty twenty three, to change 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:18.480 the Middle East. That doesn't entail limited operations just against 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:22.280 nuclear programs now. As I said, it's a risky strategy. 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:26.240 The Israelis are far away. They are looking to greatly 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:29.520 weaken this regime so that it can be more easily toppled. 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:31.080 It's not a coincidence. 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.399 I don't think that the Israelis call their Operation Rising Line. 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:36.600 Take a look at the Shah's regime. Take a look 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:38.879 at their flag. There's a lion in the middle of it. 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:43.600 So I do think that it may be existential for 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:46.719 the Runans, and that they may try to retaliate in very, 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.520 very significant ways. I think the question is how much 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:54.560 damage has the Israeli military done in last night's wave 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:56.960 of attacks, waves of attacks that are being undertaken now, 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:00.560 waves of attacks that are being contemplated in the coming days. 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:04.120 How much damage they've done to the Iranian ability to respond, 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:07.280 and whether whether the Iranians, after all this will be 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:10.880 able to muster the kind of massive response against Israel 0:20:11.240 --> 0:20:13.840 or American bases around the region. They'll still have a 0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:20.080 lot of resources at their disposal, certainly the ability to 0:20:20.240 --> 0:20:22.760 create chaos in other parts of the region, but will 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:26.040 it be this kind of existential regional war that people 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:30.480 have been warning about so far? It doesn't look like it, 0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:35.199 with Hezbollah saying we're not involved. Quiet from the Iraqi 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:40.000 militias that may unfold in coming days, but the Israelis 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:42.119 seem intent on not allowing that to happen. 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.440 Deeply thoughtful of stuff. Steven, appreciate its time, Steven Cooks. 0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:47.560 They have the Council on Farm Relations. 0:20:57.800 --> 0:20:58.639