1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferroh, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hordern. Join us each 4 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 2: day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We 6 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 8 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Israel launching another 10 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: round of attacks on several locations in Iran. President Trump 11 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 2: reportably telling ABC QUO, I think it's been excellent and 12 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 2: there's more to come. Joining us now to discuss is 13 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 2: Dannington on the Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador 14 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: Goo Mornic. 15 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 3: Thank you for having me do. 16 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 2: Thank you for sharing some of your time with us, 17 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: because I'm sure you've been exceptionally busy. Let's just talk 18 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: about where things stand right now. Is this operation on 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: and ultimately one of the gals. 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 4: Where the gods are very clear, we want to be 21 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 4: sure that they will not put the threat not only 22 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 4: against Israel, but against the entire Western civilization, and specifically, 23 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 4: we have two main goals. To eliminate the nuclear capabilities 24 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 4: and to stop the production of ballistic missiles. And let 25 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 4: me elaborate on that. You know, it's not only the 26 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 4: nuclear weapons. We all know about the UNU enrichment and 27 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 4: about that they're getting very close to put a bomb together. 28 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 4: But to look at what they're doing with the ballistic missiles. 29 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 4: They want to They wanted to be at the same 30 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 4: level of the US and Russia in terms of the 31 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 4: quantity and the technology of the ballistic missiles. We couldn't 32 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 4: allow it to happen. We got intel about their intentions 33 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 4: to create another attack against Israel. You know, we all 34 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 4: remember what happened on October seventh, But this time they 35 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 4: wanted to use thousands of ballistic missiles and invade into 36 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 4: it well with their proxies. 37 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 3: So it was a preemptive attack. 38 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 4: So we will continue until we will be sure that 39 00:01:57,960 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: we eliminated those two capabilities. 40 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 3: Share rank you right now, Well, we will. 41 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 4: Have to wait and see the result of the attack 42 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 4: of last night. 43 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 3: It was a major attack. 44 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 4: More than two hundred aircraft participated in the attack. Many targets, 45 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 4: many senior military officials were eliminated last night, and we 46 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 4: will continue until we will know that one is in 47 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 4: the point that they cannot continue with the efforts. 48 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: Including the IRGC General commander. Is there an intent for 49 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: regime changing around from Israel, Well. 50 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 4: That's not our goal. You know, we are concerned about 51 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 4: the threats to it. Well, for the Iranian people, I 52 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 4: wish they will have a different regime. 53 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 3: You know, we saw what happened in the one. 54 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 4: The people are suffering there that have no way hitting 55 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 4: the winter, no ac in the summer, that are suffering there. 56 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 4: But our goals is to eliminate the capabilities of A 57 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 4: one so they will not be able to threaten us. 58 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 4: And then when you look at the map, we have 59 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 4: no border with A one. It takes us hours to 60 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 4: fly there in order to attack those facilities. But still 61 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 4: they spend billions of dollars to create threats against Israel. 62 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: This nuclear enrichment is deep into the mountains. How long 63 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: will that victory actually take? And it's called Rising Lion? 64 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:14,119 Speaker 5: Why is that? 65 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 4: Well, you know, every time we pick a name when 66 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 4: we have a military operation, sometimes the computer is doing 67 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 4: it for us. So there is no real meaning for 68 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 4: the world of the operation. But I would say that 69 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 4: Ia published recently that they ran at the enough urvenium 70 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 4: to create not only one bomb, multiple bombs, so it's 71 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 4: only it was a matter of days to put it together. 72 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 4: We decided not to wait, not to take that risk. 73 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 4: We believed the threats of the Iranian when they said 74 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 4: that they're going to use those ballistic missiles to destroy 75 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 4: is well, we took it very seriously. 76 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: How much did the Israeli government brief. 77 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 5: The US government? 78 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 4: So we talked with the US, but this decision was 79 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 4: decided in Jerusalem, and we took that decision independently, not 80 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 4: for the first time in the eighties and on too. 81 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 4: Remind you we attacked the nuclear actor in Iraq. We 82 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 4: took the decision by ourselves when we attack the reactor 83 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 4: in Syria. I think it will serve the US and 84 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 4: other Western democracies, but it was a decision that was 85 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 4: made in Israel. 86 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: Do you think the United States will come to not 87 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: just Israeli defense, but potentially if you're needing help with 88 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: more attacks, if this continues for days and. 89 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 4: Weeks, Well, since the day that was established, we never 90 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 4: asked the US to fight for US. We know how 91 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 4: to fight and we know how to defeat our enemies. 92 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 4: You know, we have heard threats that Dirnia that are 93 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 4: threatening the US, targets that are threatening the allies of 94 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 4: the US in your embassy right, So we take precautions 95 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 4: in different places around the world. We are aware of 96 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 4: the threats, but we will continue. Also in Israel. We 97 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 4: have to be honest, you know, in needwel today we 98 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 4: are getting ready for serious attacks coming from Iran. It 99 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 4: will be very intense, intense in Israel in the next 100 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: few days. We are preparing the population in this operation. 101 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 4: It's not only about the bravery of the pilots, it's 102 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 4: about the population in Israel. They will have to follow 103 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 4: the guidelines in order to avoid casualties. 104 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 2: Ambassadors, you know, the United States is system themselves from 105 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 2: this in the last twenty four NS and said they 106 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 2: weren't pound of the attack. What's not clear to us 107 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 2: is whether they assisted in the defense of Israel. Did 108 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 2: the well, you know we have capabilities and we are 109 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 2: Did they assist you when they sent over drafts from 110 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 2: Iran to Israel? Did you receive any help from partners 111 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 2: outside of Israel? 112 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,799 Speaker 4: Well, as far as I know that we were able 113 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 4: to deal with the ones by ourselves and in a way. 114 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 4: But we have to realize, you know, the threat is 115 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 4: not only against the Israel as I said earlier, iranly 116 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 4: threatening the allies of the US in the Gulf. So 117 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 4: we have the capabilities. I'm not sure they have the 118 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 4: same capabilities. 119 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: Are you worried about an asymmetrical response from Iran? 120 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 4: Well, we took into consideration that there will be retaliation 121 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 4: and marine and. 122 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 5: We will be proportional. 123 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 4: Well, they know that we have capabilities as well, so 124 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 4: they will have to think twice before the attackers and 125 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 4: what they are doing. And I would say that today 126 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 4: we can reach every target in Iran. 127 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 3: We have the control in terms of. 128 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 1: Our pilot to reach every target. 129 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 4: Well, you know we have the capability. We focused on 130 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 4: on the gore the earlier I mentioned earlier, the ballistic 131 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: missile infrastructure and the nuclear facilities. 132 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: How long will that take if you were to reach 133 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: every target. 134 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 4: Well, it's not going to be a short operation, and 135 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 4: it will be weeks or months. I wouldn't say months, 136 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 4: but it can take days or weeks. 137 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 2: How lonely this is round the United Nations at the moment. 138 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 3: Well, I will let you. 139 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 4: Know in a few minutes when I go there, Jonathan. 140 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 4: But it's gonna be it's gonna be tough for US. 141 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 4: Iran already called for the Security Council to meet public 142 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 4: what happened this afternoon. But you know, I will tell 143 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 4: my colleague that the U n where were you in 144 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 4: the last ten years when I ran threatened this? Well, 145 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 4: where were you when the same ballistic missiles? Where were 146 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 4: you when they actually acquire the nuclear capabilities? 147 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 3: So you know what will not stop Iran is well. 148 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: Will the international response. Saudi Arabia calling it heiness, the 149 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: NATO Secretary General calling for de escalation, the UN Secretary 150 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: General calling from maximum restrain. Do you think there is 151 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: a diplomatic group when it comes to dealing with this regime? 152 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 4: Well, I think that they you know already you have 153 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 4: the diplomatic Act and the time for that will come. 154 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 4: But we saw that the diplomacy didn't convince Iran to 155 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 4: change courts. You know, for decades they negotiated, they played 156 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 4: the game. The light we found we had the intel 157 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 4: that they are developing nuclear capabilities for military usage. 158 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: There's some analysis so that under the JCPOA, they were restrained, 159 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: they were capped. 160 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 5: They are not capped. 161 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 4: Now when it comes to enrichment, well, you know with 162 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 4: the without the JCPOA, they were continuing. 163 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 3: And what only recently that you know. 164 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 4: The alongside the reactors and the plan that was supervised 165 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 4: by the international community, they developed a military capability that 166 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 4: they were hiding it from the international community. So once 167 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 4: we realized that going to that direction, we decided to 168 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: stop that. 169 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 2: Ambassador, we appreciate your time this morning. Thanks for making 170 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 2: take for I'm sure you're gonna have an exceptionally busy 171 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 2: down ahead of you, so thank. 172 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 3: You, sir. 173 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: The Israeli Ambassador to the UN Dannyton on there and 174 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 2: the latest attacks on Iran, it's the latest this morning. 175 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 2: Investor's rushing into bonds, pushing gilds lower. Briefly, as tensions 176 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,200 Speaker 2: between Israel and Iran reached a boiling point, joining US 177 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 2: natural discusses, Robert said of PGM. Rob I said briefly, 178 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 2: because yields now up, particularly at the front end, by 179 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 2: about two basis points, it feels like a tug of 180 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 2: war between natural risk, a version out of risk assets 181 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 2: to something else, plus an inflation redevelopment. What would you 182 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 2: put more weight on one versus the other? 183 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 6: Right well, actually, for right now, the market is in 184 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 6: some respects putting more emphasis on the FED this point 185 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 6: in the cycle. I mean, actually from the best levels. 186 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 6: At some points overnight we've seen some flattening of the 187 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 6: Yell curve, where effectively having a higher oil price reduces 188 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 6: the odds of FED rate cuts, which then is positive 189 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 6: for the inflation outlook, you know, leads to a flatter curve. 190 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 6: And you know, so that's rather ironic, but we've seen 191 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 6: a lot of these situations in the Middle East over 192 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 6: the years, you know, going back, and they're all at 193 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 6: different points in economic cycles. So when you go back 194 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 6: to nineteen ninety, you know that was hitting in the 195 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 6: middle of a recession. This one is hitting in the 196 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 6: middle of a pretty firm economic backdrop, albeit one with 197 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 6: a lot of anxiety. But it leads to a different 198 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 6: kind of market reaction to. 199 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 5: Your point, staying points, Mensa. 200 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: So let's talk about the stancing point with my some 201 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 2: progress on inflation, full consentctive month of downside surprises. Where 202 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: are we now, Robert, and do we risk upending some 203 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 2: of the progress we've made. 204 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 6: Definitely. You know, we have had three good months of inflation. 205 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 6: But the problem with this cycle is before the three 206 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 6: months of good inflation, we had three months of terrible inflation. 207 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 6: And then before that last year there were months of 208 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 6: good and then months of bad and not just one, 209 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 6: but a few and a crack. And that's why this 210 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 6: has been such a difficult cycle for people to get 211 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,679 Speaker 6: their arms around. And the same has been true on 212 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 6: the real economic activity, where you get a few strong 213 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 6: months a few week months, and so the Fed is 214 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 6: in this constant pull and pull, a push and pull of. 215 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, we've succeeded. 216 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 6: We're going to be able to cut interest rates, although 217 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 6: we have to really stand tough. And already most inflation 218 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 6: forecasters were looking for inflation to go up as a 219 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 6: result of tariffs. If not in yesterday's warning, yesterday morning's number, 220 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 6: definitely in the next several numbers that are coming. 221 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 2: So it thanks the question, rob, let me jump in 222 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,679 Speaker 2: at the time we have left. What does it mean 223 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 2: for the Fed next Wednesday when they've got to put 224 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:03,439 Speaker 2: out full costs. 225 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, so they're definitely going to be on hold and evaluating, 226 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 6: and I think it's going to make them very reluctant 227 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 6: to even change their dots to make any fine tuning. 228 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 6: They're going to want to say they need more information. 229 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 6: And going back to that nineteen ninety incident where people think, 230 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 6: you know Kuwaits, you know, being invaded and the Iraqis 231 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 6: being repulsed was very quick. That actually took a few 232 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 6: months for the price of oil to make it all 233 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 6: the way up to the top. So these things can 234 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 6: take some time to evaluate. We're not in a weak 235 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 6: economic backdrop. The Fed's going to have time to evaluate. 236 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 6: I think they're going to stand pat try to talk 237 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 6: down volatility, talk about the firm underrelying situation. 238 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 2: Robert f Pa, Jim rub appreciate at the time so 239 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 2: as to make consign for us this morning to spend 240 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 2: time on the potential Iranian response. We can do that 241 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 2: now with Stephen Kirk, the Senior Fellow for Middle East 242 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 2: and Africa Studies of the Council on Foreign Relations. Stephen, 243 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 2: welcome to the program sir. What a timely opportunity to 244 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:12,959 Speaker 2: catch up with you, Stephen. Can we start with I 245 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 2: Runian defense and military capabilities, how degraded they've been, how 246 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 2: greated they've become, and not just Theirs, but also the 247 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:21,839 Speaker 2: military capabilities of Iranian proxies as well. 248 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 5: What is the current state of play? Yeah? 249 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 7: Well, reporting coming out of Iran and Israeli reporting indicates 250 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 7: that a tremendous amount of damage has been done to 251 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 7: Iran's ability to respond. Her reports of James Bond like 252 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:46,559 Speaker 7: Mozart operations in which they have disabled the ability of 253 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 7: the Iranians to launch large numbers of ballistic missiles towards Israel, 254 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 7: that they have targeted Iran's air defenses so that Iran 255 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 7: is more vulnerable than ever. Thus far, the only thing 256 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 7: that the Irans have been able to muster or a 257 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 7: wave of UAV strikes, most of which I believe have 258 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 7: been shot down. As far as the proxies go. His 259 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 7: Belaw has said it will not respond to Israel's attacks 260 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 7: on Iran, and in fact, the Lebanese government has said 261 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 7: it will make sure that his BiLaw does not respond 262 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 7: to Israel's attacks on Iran. We haven't yet heard from 263 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:26,119 Speaker 7: the Iraqi militias, but in the past, specifically last October 264 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 7: when the Israelis hit Iran previously, the Iraqi militious have 265 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 7: said that they weren't interested in retaliation, that leaves the Huthis, 266 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 7: and we'll have to see how they respond. But by 267 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 7: early accounts, the Israelis have done a very significant amount 268 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 7: of damage to Iran's ability to strike effectively. 269 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 5: Of course, its early days. 270 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 7: The Iranians may have some tricks up their sleeves, but 271 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 7: right now all the advantage goes to the Israelis, who 272 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 7: are once again undertaking attacks against Iran. 273 00:13:58,600 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 5: Steven. 274 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: If it's true that the US and Israel have a 275 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: tight security relationship, why would Israel choose to act in 276 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:05,959 Speaker 1: the United States. 277 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 7: Not, Well, we don't know for sure whether the United 278 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 7: States was not in on this. There is a lot 279 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 7: of Israeli reporting suggesting that this was the last few days. 280 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 7: We're in an elaborate deception campaign. But I think, in 281 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 7: keeping with the President's worldview, Defense Secretary Pete Heggs had 282 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 7: said it best before Congress just the other day, in 283 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 7: which he said Prime Minister Natanya is going to do 284 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 7: what's best for his country, and President Trump's going to 285 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 7: do what's best for the United States. I think the 286 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 7: Israelis view is that the Iranians in recent weeks have 287 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 7: crossed a certain threshold and that they just could not wait. 288 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 7: There is a fair amount of Israel US security coordination 289 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 7: and nas these attacks were unfolding, It's likely that the 290 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 7: United States provided real time intelligence to the Israelis, and 291 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 7: of course, in retaliation. Because Israel is part of Senkom, 292 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 7: the United States and Israel and other regional partners will 293 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 7: cooperate in defense of Israel as a result of that. 294 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 5: It remains to be seen. 295 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 7: I think the president's posts on social media this morning 296 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 7: would suggest he'd like to have it both ways, and 297 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 7: maybe when you're the president of the United States he 298 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 7: gets to have it both ways. But I think more 299 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 7: needs to be We need to find out more about 300 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 7: the actual US role here. 301 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 1: You just insinuated that you don't think this would hinder 302 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: the US response in defending Israel. So do you expect 303 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: the US to come out in full force and Israeli 304 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: defense when we see Iran's retaliation. 305 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 7: We already see in this Sencom area of operations the 306 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 7: Jordanian Air Force is shooting down Iranian drones and that 307 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 7: is in coordination with the United States. 308 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 3: So yes, I do think that the United. 309 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 7: States will help them the defense at Israel in the 310 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 7: event of a kind of massive Iranian response, And I 311 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 7: do think that the United States would get involved if 312 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 7: the Iranian seek to respond by, for example, closing the 313 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 7: straight up removes or attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf. 314 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 1: We've been talking about for months, actually years, about Iranian 315 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: enrichment and these breakout periods. 316 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 5: Why now, Stephen Well? 317 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 7: I think the Iranians have been working diligently at this 318 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 7: and that their security situation has deteriorated over the course 319 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 7: of recent months. I think we should be skeptical about 320 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 7: the reports over these many years that Iran was not 321 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 7: seeking to weaponize its program and has been diligently working 322 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 7: throughout in order to develop weapons capability. I was privy 323 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 7: to an open source briefing just recently which made it 324 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 7: clear that the Iranians really have never stopped their efforts 325 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 7: to develop nuclear weapons. 326 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: So do you think today's attack was all about where 327 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: they are in terms of their capability when it comes 328 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: to their nuclear program, or is there something else Israel 329 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: knows that we have yet to be briefed on. 330 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 7: Well, I think the Israeli for these relatives, a certain 331 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 7: threshold had been breached and they felt that they did 332 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 7: not have much time left before the Iranians weaponize, but 333 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 7: I think that there's a broader goal here for the Israelis. 334 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 7: The way this attack is unfolding is quite similar to 335 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 7: what the Israelis did to his Belaw in the fall 336 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 7: of twenty twenty four, essentially an effort to decapitate the regime, 337 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 7: make it render it render its ability to respond effectively 338 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 7: quite weak, and provide an opportunity for the change in regime. 339 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 7: It is the Iranian regime that is the danger, not 340 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 7: necessarily Iran or the Iranian military or even the Iran 341 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 7: nuclear program. Is the regime and what their intentions are 342 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 7: to do with it. If you change the regime, you 343 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,360 Speaker 7: provide an opportunity for perhaps a more benign government. 344 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 5: There an opportunity. 345 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 7: It's a very, very risky strategy, but it seems clear 346 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 7: based on how the Israelis have attacked the IRGC leadership, 347 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 7: the military leadership, and he even reportedly took a shot 348 00:17:58,119 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 7: at the Supreme Leader himself. 349 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 2: Even I want to follow up on this. What you're 350 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 2: saying is really quite important, because what I've heard so 351 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 2: far this morning is something quite different. That this was 352 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 2: a targeted, limited operation to degrade the military and nuclear 353 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 2: capabilities of this country and that regime change was something bigger, 354 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 2: something that they weren't pursuing. If the Iranian regime believes 355 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 2: that the Israelis are looking to tople the regime and 356 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 2: they view this as the start of an existential threat, 357 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 2: how does that shape their response in the coming weeks 358 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 2: and months, Because I can tell you from a financial 359 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 2: market perspective, a lot of people are thinking about the 360 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 2: Strait of Homers and some people would sit here and 361 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 2: say that's the big cup, the nuclear option. They wouldn't 362 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 2: reach for that. Maybe they look to de escalate things 363 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 2: from here. Are you saying this could play out differently? 364 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 5: Oh? 365 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 7: I certainly think that that's the case, and I think 366 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 7: that people are missing the point here. Prime Minister Benjamina 367 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 7: Dnialo has for months been talking about the Iranian people, 368 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 7: how the Runian people are suffering under this. 369 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 5: Regime, that. 370 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:02,719 Speaker 7: A different regime would be better for the Iranian people, 371 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 7: And so I think that there is absolutely a broader 372 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 7: goal that is here. The Israelis promised Prime Minister Natanao 373 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 7: himself promised on October ninth, twenty twenty three, to change 374 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 7: the Middle East. That doesn't entail limited operations just against 375 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 7: nuclear programs now. As I said, it's a risky strategy. 376 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 7: The Israelis are far away. They are looking to greatly 377 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 7: weaken this regime so that it can be more easily toppled. 378 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 5: It's not a coincidence. 379 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 7: I don't think that the Israelis call their Operation Rising Line. 380 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 7: Take a look at the Shah's regime. Take a look 381 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 7: at their flag. There's a lion in the middle of it. 382 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 7: So I do think that it may be existential for 383 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,719 Speaker 7: the Runans, and that they may try to retaliate in very, 384 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 7: very significant ways. I think the question is how much 385 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 7: damage has the Israeli military done in last night's wave 386 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 7: of attacks, waves of attacks that are being undertaken now, 387 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 7: waves of attacks that are being contemplated in the coming days. 388 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 7: How much damage they've done to the Iranian ability to respond, 389 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 7: and whether whether the Iranians, after all this will be 390 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,880 Speaker 7: able to muster the kind of massive response against Israel 391 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 7: or American bases around the region. They'll still have a 392 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 7: lot of resources at their disposal, certainly the ability to 393 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 7: create chaos in other parts of the region, but will 394 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 7: it be this kind of existential regional war that people 395 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 7: have been warning about so far? It doesn't look like it, 396 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:35,199 Speaker 7: with Hezbollah saying we're not involved. Quiet from the Iraqi 397 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 7: militias that may unfold in coming days, but the Israelis 398 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 7: seem intent on not allowing that to happen. 399 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 2: Deeply thoughtful of stuff. Steven, appreciate its time, Steven Cooks. 400 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 2: They have the Council on Farm Relations. 401 00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 5: Good morning, Jonathan. 402 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 8: I'm here with the CEO, Jim Farley and Jim a 403 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 8: lot to talk about here at Lama with you. 404 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 5: You just got out of a race car. 405 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 8: But before we do that, I want to ask you 406 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,880 Speaker 8: about the Israeli strike on Iran and the counter attack. 407 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 8: Are all of the Ford employees that you know of 408 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 8: in safe places? You do have operations in the Middle East? 409 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 5: We do. 410 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,959 Speaker 9: It's a really important region for us. We're watching Turkey 411 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 9: as well. We have a huge operation in Turkey. We 412 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 9: export all the way through Europe and the UK. So 413 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 9: so far, so good, but it's clearly a concern for 414 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 9: all of us in business. 415 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 8: One of the things we've seen as a result, obviously, 416 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 8: is the oil price rise five or six percent really 417 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 8: across the board. Has the low oil price been helpful 418 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 8: to you or has it not helped to encourage people 419 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:47,639 Speaker 8: to buy electric cars. 420 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting because it cuts both ways. 421 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 9: At Ford, we're sixty percent almost of the commercial business 422 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 9: in the US, and a lot of that is energy. 423 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 5: So you go to Odessa, Texas, everyone drives the forward 424 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 5: super duty. So you know, if. 425 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 9: Oil isn't in that sixty five seventy dollars range, our 426 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 9: customer suffer. But you know, obviously, I think for the economy, 427 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 9: for everything, it needs to be in that kind of range. 428 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 5: That makes sense for everything. 429 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 9: Large spikes, big changes in oil prices and gas prices. 430 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 5: Have huge impacts on our demand. 431 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 9: We see truck and full sized SGUV demand go down 432 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 9: when they're big spikes. 433 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 5: Happened in eight it happened many times. 434 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 9: So no, I don't think our business likes big changes. 435 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 9: For the consumer, it's very stressful for them. 436 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 8: The electric business, though, I would imagine, also is dependent 437 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 8: on kind in some sense higher gas prices. I drove 438 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 8: your Lightning. It was fantastic, spent a week in it. 439 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 8: I've driven the Machi for a couple of weeks and 440 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 8: one of the great pleasures is you don't ever have 441 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 8: to go to a gas station. 442 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 5: Right, How are those businesses doing right? 443 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 8: Now because you've taken such big losses there and maybe 444 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 8: slowed down in terms of your progress into evs. 445 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, we've really changed because we're thankful we've been number 446 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 9: two to Tesla for three years in the US because 447 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 9: we spent our capital like five six years ago and 448 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 9: all that product has been out for four years that 449 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 9: you mentioned, So we've learned a ton. 450 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 5: Now. 451 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 9: We've changed our capital allocation for evs. We've reduced the spending, 452 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 9: changed the battery chemistry a lot to focus on more profitability. 453 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 9: We've gone down market and mostly in commercial. Those are 454 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 9: the only markets where we think in the US, you know, 455 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 9: an age seven percent of the industry is going to 456 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 9: make sense for ev where you can actually make money. 457 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 9: And the EPA requirements have a big impact on the 458 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 9: EV investments by OEMs. During the last several years, you know, 459 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 9: we had to kind of sell like fifteen to twenty 460 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 9: percent of our mix to be EV's both for the 461 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 9: ZEB States California, Colorado, New York, but also you know, 462 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 9: to meet the national tailpipe emissions and so what's happened. Interestingly, 463 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 9: the total number of evs in the US has grown, 464 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,679 Speaker 9: but the total revenue has not changed. In three years 465 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 9: because the prices have come down equal to the volume 466 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 9: going up. So the EV market has not been going 467 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 9: for three years. If you look at total revenue, everyone 468 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 9: looks at unit volume. Don't look at that. Look at 469 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 9: the price and the volume. And I think we now 470 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 9: have a good strategy going forward. A lot of our 471 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,160 Speaker 9: competitors are just investing for the first time, and good 472 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 9: luck if you're selling an eighty thousand dollars SUV electric vehicle. 473 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 9: We've invested a lot in hybrid. We are really successful 474 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 9: with our truck. Hybrid's twenty five the best selling vehicle 475 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 9: in the US for forty seven years, been in the 476 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 9: F one fifty. Twenty five percent of those customers now 477 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 9: by hybrid, and a. 478 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 5: Lot of it is exportable power. 479 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 9: You can run your house for six days with an 480 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 9: F one fifty hybrid now, and the others don't offer 481 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,639 Speaker 9: that at all. So yeah, we think hybrid is really 482 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 9: the mainstream technology. We'll see erevs come to the US 483 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 9: soon as the next technology for partial electrical I. 484 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 5: Want to ask you about. 485 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 8: Race on Sunday, sell on Monday, since we're here at Lamas, 486 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 8: since you just got out of a Mustang race car, 487 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 8: how does this racing effort, and it's a big effort 488 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 8: trickle down to the bottom line for Ford shareholders. 489 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 5: Well, for us, the biggest is off road market. You know. 490 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 9: We have you know, almost twenty percent of a global 491 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 9: profit coming from our enthusiast off road products, and we 492 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 9: race it to car. We said Baja, were said King 493 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 9: and the Hammers. That's a big thing, you know. I 494 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 9: don't think there's a better way to promote your brand. 495 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 9: Look what Ford winning in sixty six at Lama did 496 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 9: for Ford Motor Company. 497 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 5: It made us a global company. 498 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 9: We're American company, but that moment changed us completely, and 499 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 9: that's why we're going back in twenty seven to take 500 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 9: on Ferrari and take on Porsche. 501 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 5: We think we have the technology but also the. 502 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 9: Tech transfer software, battery, tech, error dynamics. It's different than 503 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 9: the seventies, but the tech transfer over to our road 504 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 9: cars is immediate. You'll see hundreds of Ford engineers here 505 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 9: who will be working on Monday on our road cars. 506 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 9: And it's really important tech transfer. But we do it, 507 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,719 Speaker 9: I think as smart as we can. And maybe as 508 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 9: a racer, I'm more sensitive about wasting money on racing, 509 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 9: and we challenge ourselves to be really smart. I think 510 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 9: we've done a great job with the off road, the raptors, 511 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 9: the tremors, you know, all the broncos. I think that's been, frankly, 512 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 9: some of the smartest investment we had in racing. 513 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,439 Speaker 8: You say you're an American company, You've outed yourself as 514 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 8: literally the most American car maker. Eighty percent of the 515 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 8: cars that you sell in America are made there. Donald 516 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 8: Trump was out overnight saying maybe he's going to go 517 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 8: after even. 518 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 5: Higher auto tariffs. 519 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 8: While you've said in the past that causes costs and chaos, 520 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 8: does it also kind of help you because no one 521 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 8: else makes as many cars as you do in America. 522 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 9: Well, for Ford, this is a moment for us. You know, 523 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 9: we have employee pricing out there. We gained a couple 524 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 9: points a share year over year. A lot of Americans 525 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 9: are shopping forward because now they're starting to think, hey, 526 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 9: half the cars in the US are imported, and if 527 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 9: all the car companies were like Ford, there'd be fifteen 528 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,359 Speaker 9: new factories in the US, a million new jobs. You know, 529 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 9: I think a lot of Americans are starting to pay 530 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 9: attention to where these where these cars come from. And 531 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 9: for us, yes, I think Donald Trump's policies, especially around 532 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:10,159 Speaker 9: the Asian countries where they've supported with substies direct or 533 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 9: indirect for their automobile industry. 534 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,160 Speaker 5: You know, this is a great thing. 535 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 9: We have to sort out this Mexico Canada thing because 536 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 9: we need to keep the vehicles affordable in the US 537 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 9: and there's actually a lot of parts we can't even 538 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 9: make in the US, Matt as you know, and so 539 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 9: we have to kind of sort out what it ruled 540 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 9: does Mexico and Canada have in our North America market 541 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,199 Speaker 9: from supply chain and manufacturing keep the vehicles affordable, and 542 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 9: that's something that we're talking to the administration. We found 543 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 9: the administration to be very positive to work with. They 544 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 9: want to help companies like Ford that did the right 545 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 9: thing for Americans. 546 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 5: But we have more work to do in terms. 547 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 8: Of what the administration has been trying to do with China. 548 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 8: Are you satisfied with the rare earth minerals that you 549 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:54,439 Speaker 8: have access to? 550 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 5: I know that you had to slow down production in 551 00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 5: the past. Yes, Have you been able. 552 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 8: To secure the amount of magnets that you need? 553 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 5: Is stay to day? 554 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,880 Speaker 9: It's stay to day these high para magnets. The raw 555 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 9: materials to them only come from certain places in the world. 556 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,959 Speaker 9: They're all processed in China, and they go in your 557 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 9: speakers and your autosystem. They go in your motors, for 558 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 9: your wipers and your seats. 559 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,880 Speaker 5: They're all over our F one fifty for example. 560 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 9: We have applications in them offcom. 561 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 5: They're getting approved one at a time. 562 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 9: You know, we're educating the administration, We're educating the Chinese 563 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 9: leadership about how important these jobs in the Midwest are. 564 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 5: There dependent. 565 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,960 Speaker 9: We have had to shut down factories. It's hand to 566 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 9: mouth right now, and I'm reading the paper like everyone else. 567 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 9: I was very happy to read about London and having 568 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 9: a good meeting there because it has a direct impact 569 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 9: in our jobs in Michigan, Ohio. 570 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 5: So we'll see. It's hand to mouth right now. 571 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 8: Jim, thanks so much, really appreciate your time and congratulations 572 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 8: on the race. 573 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 5: Thank you. 574 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Savenans podcast, Can you the best 575 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 2: in markets, economics and geopolitics. 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