1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,319 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast part of the 2 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. 3 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 2: I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 1: Our division by division betting breakdowns have begun. We covered 5 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: the AFC South on Tuesday. 6 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 2: Today we move. 7 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: On to the equally important, equally respected, equally beloved also 8 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: southeastern region of football in the NFL, the NFC South, 9 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: home of teams and logos nobody outside of the region 10 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: cares about, but we're going to talk about them because 11 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: we do think there's betting opportunities to help me do 12 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: all of that. Let me bring in my COEs, my 13 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: companion Michael Padre my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter. 14 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 3: So I'm hello, Chide, what's going on? 15 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: Listen? 16 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: You know nothing gets me more sighted and the chance 17 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 1: to talk about professional football in the Southeastern United States. 18 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 4: On April twenty fourth, nineteen seventy four, Florida's Tampa Bay 19 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 4: area was awarded the NFL's twenty seven franchise. The official 20 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 4: team name was announced as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who've 21 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 4: set a standard that any expansion team would be proud 22 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 4: to attain. 23 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers do have a quarterback that we 24 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: love that we both think is top ten in Baker Mayfield. 25 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 1: The Bucks Division odds plus one oh two, Conference odds 26 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: thirteen to one, Super Bowl twenty eight to one, win. 27 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 2: Total at nine and a half. 28 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: Obviously, the biggest factor here is that Liam Cohne, the 29 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, has left to take over as the Jacks coach. 30 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: This will be Baker's third offensive coordinator in three years. 31 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: We do have Baker's a top ten QB as I said, 32 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: but do we worry Simon? A lot of his success 33 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: last year was predicated on him throwing more screen passes 34 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: than ever to help him manage pressure, which has always 35 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: been an issue for Baker. That man is EPA expected 36 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: points added on screens was significantly higher, the second highest 37 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: the past four seasons, behind just Patrick Mahomes. 38 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 2: Also helped him decrease the sacrate. So the Bucks have 39 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 2: won this division for a couple of years running. Now 40 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: are we selling the Bucks? 41 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard not to want to sell him, right. 42 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 3: It's the same thing where it was last year, where 43 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, you know, that was a great year 44 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 3: from Baker, but we expected regression and then he came 45 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 3: out and had the best year of his career and 46 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 3: We're gonna find out pretty quick, right if it was 47 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 3: him or Liam, Like the guy left has now gone 48 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 3: to a different team, and we expect things in Jackson 49 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 3: well because of that, Right, we really respected his offensive 50 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 3: mind and the team did as well, Like they offered 51 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 3: him an insane amount of Money's probably gonna be the 52 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 3: highest paid offensive coordinator all football, and you know that's 53 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 3: that shows the kind of respect he has in this 54 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 3: league where he's he's using leverage against his former employee 55 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 3: while he's already on that jet to his new team 56 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 3: meeting back with the Jaguars. The whole thing was really scandless, 57 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 3: and you know the Baker got dragged into it, right. 58 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 3: They were trying to get Baker to be mad about it, 59 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 3: and Baker's like, I love that guy. Like that was 60 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 3: when the best Shaer's ever had. I loved working with 61 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 3: him and you saw them in the field. And the 62 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 3: question for me is, like this win does it catch 63 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 3: up too? 64 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: Like? 65 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 3: Because that was an insane season by Baker, and that 66 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 3: was without Godwin and Mike Evans for large portions of 67 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: that season. And they've gone out and they've drafted a 68 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 3: new rookie receiver that's got a ton of talent, so 69 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 3: they're like, Okay, we're already forward thinking because Mike Evans 70 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: here is aging out, God wins aging out. We're already 71 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 3: thinking forward. So now they are easily three to four 72 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: deep at receiver. That's a big deal for this team 73 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 3: that plans off throwing the ball a lot. And then 74 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 3: we saw Bucky Irving come out of nowhere last year 75 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 3: and really take off of there. So there isn't really 76 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 3: questions offensively. Their real questions to me, is going to 77 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 3: be the defense, right because I don't think Baker's have 78 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 3: the type of aerarhead last year like naturally, I think 79 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 3: there's gonna be some regression there. It's is this defense 80 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 3: good enough again and to keep doing what they've been doing, 81 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 3: which is one of the best dominant defense aginst the 82 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 3: run and we know Vi Devey, but there's a lot 83 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 3: of other pieces of that defense that's really come to check. 84 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 5: But their secondary has. 85 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 3: Been horrible, Like they are a bad secondary, and lucky 86 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 3: for them, this division there just has not been a challenger. 87 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 5: Right. 88 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 3: It feels like, you know, I mean, I'm not saying 89 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 3: it's Matt Ryan was the greatest quarterback ever, but he 90 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 3: dominated this division for a long time, and then Tom 91 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 3: Brady came in, and after he left, Baker's kind of 92 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 3: taking it over. And it's been kind of funny where 93 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 3: I mean, me and you finally came round. We both 94 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 3: put them our top ten, but I mean we really 95 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 3: didn't take Baker serious. 96 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 5: It took a while for us to get there. 97 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 3: So I get that, I get the number, but like, 98 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 3: do you want to bet plus one oh two on 99 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 3: this team? 100 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 5: I really don't. 101 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 3: And I'm having a tough time ticking their win toal 102 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 3: just because again it's another team that it's not a 103 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 3: brutal start to the year, but it's not an easy 104 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 3: one either, Like they have a first place schedule, they 105 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: have some tough games. But this is, to me, the 106 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 3: best team. They are the best team in their division. 107 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 3: I'm just not crazy about the odds. I wish they 108 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 3: were a little better, just because you know, we're about 109 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 3: to dive into it. Like people are really loving this 110 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 3: Atlanta team, so I thought these odds would be closer. 111 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 3: But you know, that's that's the that's the respect Baker's 112 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: getting this team, so it's earned. But to me, our 113 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 3: jobs value base, I'm just not gonna be touched on 114 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 3: number nine and a half. 115 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 5: I have them right at ten wins. 116 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 3: Another team that's like, I'm gonna am I gonna force 117 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: the over here, because I do think they'll get to 118 00:05:57,800 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: ten and seven, nine and eight. They just feel like 119 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 3: that's team. They have that much talent. It's just it's 120 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 3: just hard to get there where you like, we're about 121 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 3: to talk about the Elections Division. There's better value to me, 122 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 3: but I get the respect again A plus one oh two. 123 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: By the way, Mecca Abuka was the first round pick 124 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: the received Ohio State who they've added, and look, they've 125 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: got challenges all across the board. Like you said, that 126 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: secondary is pretty bad. I mean, the only thing they 127 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: have going for them is that there isn't a dominating 128 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: defense in this division. So anytime they're playing anyone in 129 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: the division, you have the potential because you have Baker, 130 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,799 Speaker 1: because you have Mike Evans, because you have Bucky Irving, 131 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: you've got the potential to points on the board and 132 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: steel wins in the division. 133 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 2: As much as we sort. 134 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: Of don't like any of these teams, the games are 135 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: going to be lights out. Think about some of these 136 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: games in the NFC South last year, the Panthers made 137 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: so many games so exciting. The Saints earlier in the 138 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: year games exciting, the Falcons made games exciting, The Bucks 139 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: made games exciting because they're not quite good enough to 140 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: put teams away. None of them are, and so nine 141 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: and a half wins to me, just feels like too many. 142 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: You're gonna be sweating that, and there's no reason to 143 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: grasp it. It feels like it's overinflated because Baker had 144 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: the year that he had, because the team is clearly 145 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:33,559 Speaker 1: the consensus favorite in this division. Zero value, your priced 146 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: out of the market. There's just no upside embedding this 147 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: team in any of these things. 148 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 2: Right now, you're smiling at. 149 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 3: Me, Yeah, I just and like you're breaking down here, 150 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 3: but it's just very telling. Where we just did the 151 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 3: AFC South, now we're doing the FC South. No team 152 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 3: in either divisions or ten wins and both, like both 153 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 3: these divisions are the lowest win totals of the season 154 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 3: because they're such bad teams. But like you talked about, 155 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 3: these are awful teams. When they play to their own division, 156 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 3: the games are always wonking and tight, and that's really 157 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 3: true NFC South. So I know it's very you look 158 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 3: at that nine and a half, You're like in their 159 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 3: own division, like they should steamroll the Saints, right we 160 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 3: at best case scenario, maybe they split with the Panthers 161 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 3: and you know Atlanta. So it's like you look at 162 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 3: them and you're just saying, well, those are easy wins. 163 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 3: How do they not get to the other four and 164 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 3: a half five wins? 165 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 5: I get why it's. 166 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 3: So so enticing, but it's just it's hard year to 167 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 3: year and to know that these type of wins are 168 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 3: gonna be in the division, right, it's just so fluky 169 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: up and down. So it's it's a good number once again, 170 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 3: another really sharp number by the book. Like I think 171 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 3: they really hung a good number here because I think 172 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 3: a general public are gonna going and bet this one, 173 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 3: and professionals will take the under. 174 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: Oh I one hundred percent believe the public is going 175 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: to bet this over. Yeah, they're gonna They're gonna play 176 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: the over. They're gonna hit the plus one h two because, 177 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: by the way, they're gonna see a plus number and 178 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: think what I can get the bucks for the plus 179 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: number to run their division when they've been dominating that 180 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: division for so many years and nobody else really improved. 181 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 1: Of course, the public is gonna bet the Bucks in 182 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: both scenarios, but we're not, No Simon, We're not gonna 183 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: do it. 184 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 2: Will we bet the Atlanta Falcons. 185 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 4: The Atlanta Falcons were typified by the players who consistently 186 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 4: made the big play. 187 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 3: Which. 188 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: Falcons plus two thirty to win the division, thirty five 189 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: to one to win the conference, seventy to one to 190 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl, the win total at seven and 191 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: a half. 192 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 5: I mean, are you gonna you can go first? I 193 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 5: know you have. 194 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 3: You have some love here, a little bit of love 195 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: for Michael Pennox. I want to hear you break it down. 196 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 2: I do. 197 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: I do, and it's it's forcing me to want to 198 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 1: take the over on this team. My feeling on Penics 199 00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 1: is basically I think we know what he is right 200 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,839 Speaker 1: And look, I loved Penix. I've been following him long 201 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 1: before he was in the NFL, long before he was 202 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: at Washington. He was the quarterback at Indiana. He was 203 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: great in Indiana. You think back to the COVID years 204 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: when Indiana had a little bit of a run, it 205 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: was because of Michael Pennix before he was injured. That's 206 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 1: what got them into sort of contention in the Big 207 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: Ten for that one season. And he's not a guy 208 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 1: who's going to go off script. He's not a guy 209 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: who's going to make plays for you when things break down. 210 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 2: But he is a guy who can perform. 211 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: Very well, maybe even elite, when he's on schedule and 212 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: has good protection for a QB with a minimum of 213 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: one hundred dropbacks. Last year, only Lamar Jackson had a 214 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: better EPA Expected points added from a clean pocket than 215 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: Michael Pennix. Fantastic, and the Falcons will know that, so 216 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: will level of their team Right now? Can the Falcons 217 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: game plan to that? We know they have Drake London, 218 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: we know they have Bijeon, we know they have Kyle Pitts. 219 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: We know they have talent that might be used differently 220 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: with someone like Michael Pennix than it would have been 221 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: with Kirk Cousins or predecessors Desmond Ritter. 222 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 2: But how much of that can they really. 223 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: Mandate control when everybody in the league knows that, because 224 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:33,439 Speaker 1: if the production does break down, he cannot create on 225 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: his own and the whole thing falls apart. And while 226 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: the Falcons have had elite run blocking for several years, 227 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: they're past blocking and just is mediocre to straight bad. 228 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 2: It's all on Penix and I'm gonna believe and. 229 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 3: We'll see, because they did lose arguably their best offensive 230 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 3: piece to the Bears. 231 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 5: They lost their center, so you know that's a big deal. 232 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: But the one thing I'll say about that he was 233 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: injured a lot last year, and so, like I was 234 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: thinking about this as I was trying to calculate the guy. 235 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 5: What's that they were bad last year? 236 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 3: Right? 237 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: But what my point is, he was injured a lot 238 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 1: last year. So whatever Pennis was doing last year to 239 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 1: show progress and success in a clean pocket, he's doing 240 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: with probably the same people that he'll be doing it 241 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: with this year because the other guy with the backup 242 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: was playing so much. 243 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 5: And I was gonna say, it's just hard to take 244 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 5: a lot away from Penis. Where he came in. 245 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 3: I think he had what eight hundred yards, three touchdowns, 246 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 3: and three picks, Like it's really nothing. There was nothing 247 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 3: really there when you go back and watch a tape, Yes, 248 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 3: he did make nice stars, but like you said, if 249 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 3: you get him off. 250 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 5: His spot, he was bad. 251 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 3: He was really bad when you took him off a 252 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 3: spot and his feet, you know, it's it's it's a 253 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 3: knock on him, right. His footwork is not the best 254 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 3: when you get him off because he could throws off balance, 255 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 3: which you don't want him to do because he's not 256 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 3: the arm power like that. So you know, this is 257 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 3: a team that I don't know what they're gonna be 258 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 3: because their defense was so insanely lucky last season in 259 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 3: many ways where I always go back to the coaching, 260 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 3: Like coaching has a lot to do with luck in defenses, right, 261 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 3: I mean the Vikings are the great example ever of 262 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 3: that with Flores, like you can take a little bit 263 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 3: of talent because we always talk the difference between the 264 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 3: best linebacker middle linebacker and football and the fifth best 265 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 3: middle linebacker on football. Sure it's pretty big, but the 266 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 3: best fifth line backround football on the twenty fifth. 267 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 5: It's very small. 268 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 3: And these coaches, they are the ones that make such 269 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 3: a big difference on these middle middle level guys. 270 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 5: So with the. 271 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 3: Falcons, their defense to me is bad, and I do 272 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 3: have major questions about their offensive line. But like you said, 273 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 3: when we talk about these teams, well, I get why 274 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 3: you're taking this jump in on this Falcons team with 275 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 3: Penix the quarterback is the year two bump like the 276 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 3: guy who they don't have much tape on, but you 277 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 3: see the good and if he can just grow on 278 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:57,199 Speaker 3: that and get better, like we just said, if he 279 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 3: can find better move in the pocket, he gets better 280 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 3: at throwing off balance. Like I heard, he's been doing 281 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 3: the same type of training that Mahomes has been doing, 282 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 3: which is like he throws off one leg and does 283 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 3: like all these training different exercise throwing off balance and 284 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 3: working on his lower body. That to me is gonna 285 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 3: be a big step for Penick. So for a team 286 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 3: that has a ton of upside with the unknown, I 287 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 3: get why you're doing it because, like Penix comes in, 288 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 3: if he is just able to be a competent quarterback 289 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 3: something the fout because I've not had since Matt Ryan, 290 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 3: he could change out all offense because they have all 291 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 3: the weapons like Drake London Stud like Robinson Stud and 292 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 3: Kyle Pitts. We don't know, he's never had a quarterback. 293 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 3: So I'm with you. I like the pieces there. 294 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 5: I get why you're going with it. 295 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 3: But there's another team this division I love more. So 296 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 3: that's why I'm just not all in with you. I 297 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 3: get where you're coming from. I did bet their win total. 298 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 3: I have him at eight and a half. The win 299 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 3: total seven and a half, obviously a full game to 300 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 3: the over. I'll take that over on the win just 301 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 3: because of this division. Like the way this division shakes out, 302 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 3: it just feels like I'm I can't see what Chad 303 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 3: seeing here is like them in the Bucks, we could 304 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 3: both see them being nine and eight, ten and seven 305 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 3: fighting like they were last year and last year that 306 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 3: Atlanta did it without a quarterback. So yeah, major upgrade 307 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 3: to them. If Penis can take that next. 308 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: Step, dude, you have it at eight and a half. 309 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: The totals at seven and a half. Of the teams 310 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: we've talked about so far between the AFC South and 311 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: the Nancy South, that's the biggest discrepancy. 312 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 2: You haven't had. 313 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 3: A Tennessee was seven, So they were they were a 314 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 3: game and a half. But that's fair, you know, I 315 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 3: know it's the Penix thing. I've been watching tons of Penis. 316 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 3: The Tennessee was five and a half. I hadn't met 317 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 3: seven wins, okay, but yeah, like I just I'm with you. 318 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 3: I've been watching a ton of Penix day because to me, 319 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 3: I loved him in college so much like you know 320 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 3: a Duneesa is a great receiver. 321 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 5: He he obviously. 322 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 3: Helped the quarterback and what Penix did, but it was 323 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 3: also Penix, like he put up some of his passes 324 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 3: as touch passes are incredible. So I'm not disagreeing with 325 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 3: the talents there, and obviously my model believes in this team. 326 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 3: I'm just so hesitant o it because it's like I 327 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 3: watch them on field and I see so many bad habits, 328 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: and then when I dive into how lucky their defense 329 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 3: was and how it overperformed so much last year, it's 330 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 3: hard to get there. 331 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 5: It's like because last year, again they just had random wins. 332 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 3: They stole, like they beat the Eagles in Week two 333 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 3: on a two minute drive by Kirk Cousins. 334 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 5: You can't predict those things. 335 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 3: So it's like those ones are tough when you're diving 336 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 3: into their games last year and how they won some 337 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 3: and then you know how they fell off a cliff 338 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 3: once Kirk kind of couldn't get it right right once 339 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 3: defense is realized he can't move in the pocket, it 340 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 3: was over for Atlanta. So is that gonna be the 341 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 3: same problem here? Chat with Penix, Like that's the fear 342 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 3: is if they have another quarterback that can't move well 343 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 3: in the pocket. Every game, he's just gonna be facing 344 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 3: five rushers. It's just it's what it's gonna be. 345 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: So with an offensive line that is not great at 346 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: past blocking, So that's the fear. Totally get it, totally fair, 347 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: totally get it. You mentioned there's another team. 348 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 2: I feel a lot. 349 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: More strongly about bets related to our next two teams 350 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: then I do about the Falcons and the Bucks. So 351 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: let's dig in on the Carolina Panthers. 352 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 2: The loves of our lives. 353 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 1: Plus three ninety to win the division, fifty to one 354 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: to win the conference, one hundred and twenty to one 355 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: to win. 356 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 2: The Super Bowl. 357 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: Win total six and a half. In the final nine 358 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 1: games of the year, the Carolina Panthers went seven and 359 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: two against the spread, including four outright wins. Reminder, we 360 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 1: were so bullish on the Panthers. We talked about the 361 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: Panthers so much in the preseason, and then they went 362 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: out and totally shit the bed and made us look 363 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: terrible for the first eight weeks of the season. 364 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 2: What happened? 365 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: How did they turn it around? Bryce Young had been injured, 366 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 1: comes back, really kind of has nothing to lose at 367 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,959 Speaker 1: this point, because in his first twenty or so games 368 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: he's been one of the worst first round quarterbacks, top 369 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: overall quarterbacks who's ever been drafted. He went from being 370 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 1: so bad amongst the worst in the NFL to middle 371 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: of the pack that, like any movement in his improvement 372 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: made him look like. 373 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 2: A viable starter. 374 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 1: But to me, the key, and we talked a lot 375 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 1: about this last year. You could see it on the field, 376 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: his decision making, Like he started scrambling to extend plays. 377 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 1: He's already incredibly accurate. His scramble rate jumped from twenty 378 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: five percent to forty percent forty seven percent. And this 379 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 1: wasn't because his offensive line is terrible. It's actually top ten, 380 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: top fifteen offensive line. It was him moving around in 381 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: the pocket to make plays and then using his accuracy 382 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: on the run. He'd keep his eyes downfield, he wasn't 383 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: looking at rushers, and he was making plays that helped 384 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: them stay in the game. Third down completions, fourth down completions. 385 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: He just got better. 386 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 2: Can we see that? Can we see that from Bryce 387 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 2: Young this year? 388 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like you just broke it down. It was incredible. 389 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 3: He was playing himself out of the league. It was over, right, 390 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 3: And what did Andy Dolton do to He cut his 391 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 3: hand or was he in a car accident? Something happened 392 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 3: with Andy Dalton? 393 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, like something fluky. It wasn't like. 394 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 5: And that's why he got his job back. 395 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 1: Right. It wasn't like Andy Dalton was ever going to 396 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: links just relinquish this job. 397 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 2: No, Bryce Young was done. 398 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 5: It was over. 399 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 3: And you know, we talk all the time how football 400 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:47,439 Speaker 3: it's it's so heavily mental. That's why all these guys 401 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 3: got sports therapists, right, They're constantly working on their brain 402 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 3: and their mind, and it's it's really become a forefront 403 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,439 Speaker 3: the last ten years of how mental, how important the 404 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 3: mental aspect of the football game is. 405 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 5: And you the best example is Bryce. 406 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 3: Young, Like he was miserable, like apparently it was just 407 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 3: dead inside. 408 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 5: I mean you would be too. 409 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 3: His first game, I believe he threw like two picks. 410 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 3: It was a train wreck to start the season. And 411 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 3: just kept getting worse and worse every week. And we 412 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 3: got caught, like Chad is talking about, like this is 413 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 3: a classic case of believing too much into a model 414 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 3: and not what you're seeing in front of you. And 415 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 3: I kept saying, but my models, telling me this is 416 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 3: a bad number and this team is way better than 417 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 3: their performing did not make sense. And then sure enough, 418 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 3: once he came back, like you said, they went seven 419 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 3: to two, that's when it made sense, where it's like, oh, 420 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 3: this is what my model is seen. When he puts 421 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 3: it together and plays within the offense, he's good. Like 422 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 3: when he's accurate. They do have they did have pieces 423 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 3: there around him. And now they've gone out and drafted 424 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 3: a wide receiver, which to me was the biggest deal 425 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 3: because you know, as much as we love Bryce Young, 426 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 3: his number one receiver is out and feeling like feeling. 427 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 5: He was supposed to be. These are his sunset years. 428 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,199 Speaker 5: He's down there getting ready for retirem. 429 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 3: He's not supposed to be the number of receiver the Panthers, 430 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 3: And he was his most trusted receiver. Bryce anytime on 431 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 3: a big third down, that's who he trusted because he 432 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 3: knew he would run the he would run the right route, 433 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 3: and he would even if the window was crazy small, 434 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 3: he would. 435 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,479 Speaker 5: Give him a window. He'd always have that window. 436 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 3: The fact that they went out and got a receiver 437 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 3: with a top ten pick, it's a huge deal and 438 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:20,640 Speaker 3: you know, the the offense. You know, to me, it's 439 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,719 Speaker 3: not my question when I'm betting this team. I have 440 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 3: this team at eight wins, so six and a half. 441 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 3: Chad knows. I liked that number a lot divisional odds. 442 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 3: You know, wish it was plus four fifty like it 443 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 3: was earlier, and it's down a plus four hundred and 444 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 3: three to ninety at Some books still love it, still 445 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 3: think it's good value, but it's tough that it's been 446 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 3: bet down because the pros are the same view as us. 447 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 3: It's like, if he did take that next step and 448 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 3: they've spent money on on some of these peace offensive 449 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 3: line of defense, this should be a good team. But 450 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 3: that's that's what the unknown is here is this defense. 451 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 3: Like they were so criminally bad last year, this defense 452 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 3: that even the games they were in they got totally 453 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 3: thrown out because it's like you're asking Bruce Shung, you 454 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 3: have to put up thirty five, thirty thirty eight points 455 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 3: in a game. It's just like they don't have the 456 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 3: offensive weapons to do that. So that to me is 457 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 3: our big fear here, Chazz. We're betting a team that 458 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 3: they might have even worse defense than the Saints. Which 459 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 3: we're gonna get into the Saints about being a train wreck, 460 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 3: but this that's a true statement that Panthers might have 461 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 3: the worst defense in this division. So that, to me 462 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 3: is what I'm really looking forward to in camp, seeing 463 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 3: what I'm gonna see from a defense. You know, the 464 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,640 Speaker 3: it's not so such a preseason games now, I've learned 465 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 3: my lesson that it really is about the team practices 466 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 3: when they when they practice with other teams. That film 467 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 3: has been really valuable. They when they have practice against 468 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 3: other teams and you see what type of defensive sets 469 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 3: they're trying to run. 470 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 5: So it's definitely a team Panthers. 471 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 3: I'm gonna dive more into their defense during this preseason, 472 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 3: but right now as we stand here, I'm just so 473 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 3: infatuated with their offense. I just trusted so much that, yeah, 474 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 3: I have to have to take the divisional odds. 475 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: So look, the receiver they drafted in the first round 476 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: was that kid McMillan from Arizona, And. 477 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people, I don't know enough 478 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 2: about him. 479 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: To weigh in and whether or not he's going to 480 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 1: be impactful, added value whatever it's going to be. Certainly 481 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: if Adam Thielen was his top target. Bryce Young's you 482 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: need to find an improvement there. 483 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 2: Agree with you. 484 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: This defense was just shredded, right, and even when they 485 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: started to get guys back from injury, they never got 486 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 1: very good. And it's what made it. It was what 487 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: made every Carolina Panthers bet so heart pounding. The fact 488 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 1: that they did win for those last nine games that 489 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: they also covered the spread in is encouraging, but a 490 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,479 Speaker 1: lot of that was on Bryce Young. They have the 491 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:46,160 Speaker 1: seventh easiest strength of schedule per Vegas win totals. I'm 492 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 1: so glad to hear me hear you say that you 493 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 1: like the Panthers as a division long shot or at 494 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: least over that six and a half win total, because like, 495 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,399 Speaker 1: that's just blaring the wind total. To me, is the 496 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 1: real play for this team, because that is a blaring 497 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:09,919 Speaker 1: discrepancy in the market. But then again, you know, we 498 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 1: could be falling into a trap. 499 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 5: We could. 500 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,959 Speaker 3: But the thing I love the most about their schedule 501 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,880 Speaker 3: is it is brutal how late they're buys their bye week. 502 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,959 Speaker 3: I believe it's not until week fourteen or fifteen, like 503 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,719 Speaker 3: something crazy late like that. When you look at their schedule, 504 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 3: lay it ends is they end New Orleans, Tampa and 505 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,879 Speaker 3: then Tampa again when the last game of season. I 506 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 3: think Seattle's thrown in the middle there somewhere, so they 507 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,719 Speaker 3: get to face Tampa twice in the final three weeks. 508 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 5: That's a big deal when we're. 509 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 3: Ben win totals, right, because Tampa if they do win 510 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 3: this division somehow like they did last year, and they 511 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 3: got a game out and they don't need it, that's 512 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 3: a huge throwaway for us the end of the season. 513 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 5: And even better. 514 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 3: If we're in this spot for Carolina stealle this division. 515 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 3: They're facing the divisional leader most likely too out of 516 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 3: the last three weeks. That's how you steal the season, right, 517 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 3: That's how you make it happen. So to me, when 518 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 3: I have a young team like they are, inexperienced, I 519 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 3: want that type of thing. I don't want them facing 520 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 3: the Bucks early in the year. I want them faced 521 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 3: the end of the year where you could coach these 522 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 3: guys up and have them in them a rhythm. Where 523 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 3: we saw it last year, This Panthers team got better 524 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 3: as a season went along. 525 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 5: That's so you know you have a good coaching staff. 526 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 3: So that that was something that jumped out to me 527 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,199 Speaker 3: last year that I knew going to this year, I 528 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 3: was gonna keep drinking the cool lady. Like the way 529 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 3: they finished what'd you say, seven and two against the. 530 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 5: Spread right away I wins? Yeah, like really impressive stuff. 531 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 3: So you know, we we we might get a little 532 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 3: lucky here with the way the schedule makers did it, 533 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,919 Speaker 3: where that that final three weeks facing the Bucks twice 534 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,439 Speaker 3: could be a game changer for this team. 535 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: Well, look, I think they're opening game against the Jags, 536 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 1: and so we're going to learn a lot even in 537 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,360 Speaker 1: that opening week. How close can we get to that 538 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,679 Speaker 1: six and a half win total. It's gonna be a 539 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: tough play for us because we love betting on the 540 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 1: Jags and we love betting on the Panthers. So what 541 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: are we gonna do, Matt Mitchell when we post this 542 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: Q the conspiracy music? Because I have one right here, Simon, 543 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 1: you just said something really interesting to me. The end 544 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: of the season, they get the Bucks two of the 545 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: last three weeks. The NFL has made a really concerted 546 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: effort the past several years to backload the division matchups, 547 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 1: So there is something exciting that happens at the end 548 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: of the season where division races could be in play. 549 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 1: Right to me, this is the NFL saying we think 550 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:48,199 Speaker 1: the Panthers are really the team that could have the 551 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 1: best shot at knocking off the Bucks. 552 00:26:52,920 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 2: By the way they're scheduling. This script is written my friend. 553 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:03,200 Speaker 5: I wish it was so. 554 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 3: I don't know if the Panthers are on the schedule 555 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,400 Speaker 3: makers radar yet, right, They probably do that the top fourteen, 556 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,240 Speaker 3: top sixteen teams, and then they they're probably throwing like 557 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 3: two major markets like Chicago and some of their major market. 558 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 5: That's who. 559 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 3: That's who the schedules they dictate the the these NFC 560 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 3: South foes, they just throw them in a blender. 561 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 5: They make them their schedule match the real team. 562 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 3: So I view this as luck like they got really 563 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:34,160 Speaker 3: lucky to meet chat where that's that's exact scenario they needed, right, 564 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 3: facing them three twice in the last three weeks, that's 565 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 3: a huge deal to me for this Panthers team, just 566 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 3: because if they would face them, like we said, if 567 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 3: they started the season opening at the Bucks, Okay, you 568 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 3: already own one against the division, against the top dog 569 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 3: in the division, that would be a guaranteed loss, right 570 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 3: them going down face Baker in Tampa Week one. So 571 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 3: to me, they caught a nice break then said they're 572 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 3: going down a floor. They're going to Jacksonville. Like that's 573 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,480 Speaker 3: a much much nicer start to the season. They're heading 574 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,680 Speaker 3: down to Tampa. So yeah, like you said, there's a 575 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 3: lot conspiracy. 576 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 5: I agree with you a little bit. 577 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 3: I think they did do the Panthers some favorites in 578 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 3: some ways, But that to me is insane. 579 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 1: The luck of the time, I will not stand for 580 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:21,159 Speaker 1: Carolina Panther an NFC South disrespect. Who talks that way 581 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 1: about one of the eight divisions in the NFL. They 582 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,360 Speaker 1: all deserve our equal respect. 583 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 2: They are all. 584 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:33,719 Speaker 1: Worthy of being challenging division races. At the end, at 585 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: the end, they capture our attention. These are teams in 586 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 1: the National Football League. 587 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 2: They all matter. 588 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 1: Simon who says stuff like that, this guy, Well, one 589 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: of the teams that maybe shouldn't be in the NFL 590 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: is the New Orlands Saints. 591 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 4: What do you think about the Saints? 592 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 1: They are fourteen to one to win the division, in 593 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one to win the conference, 594 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 1: four hundred to one to win the Super Bowl, longest 595 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: odds of any team in the NFL to win the 596 00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: Super Bowl longer than the Cleveland Browns, Jermaine, because the 597 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 1: win total for the Saints is five and a half. 598 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 2: And this is what's interesting to me. Last year the Pats. 599 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: Were three hundred to one and had a season win 600 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: total of four and a half. The Panthers were two 601 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: fifty to one and had a season win total of 602 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: five and a half. Even the Browns at four and 603 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 1: a half wins are at three hundred to one. When 604 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 1: you think about that, when you hear that as better, 605 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:53,080 Speaker 1: what is that signaling to you? Because it is signaling 606 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 1: something to me. 607 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,880 Speaker 3: I mean, it's simple not that the sports book are 608 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 3: begging anybody coming a dollar on this team if willing 609 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 3: to in a positive way, so that that, to me, 610 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 3: is the signal there. That's just all negative money right 611 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 3: now in the Saint It's nothing positive to me. 612 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 2: The signal is bet the under five and a half. Yeah, right, 613 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 2: that's ultimately what it's saying. 614 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: Like they're desperate for the money at four hundred to one, 615 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 1: But why would they put their number at five and 616 00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 1: a half. That's what doesn't make sense to me. It 617 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 1: feels like they've inflated this number and I can't I 618 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 1: can't figure out why. 619 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 3: Really weird, I agree with you, This to me feels 620 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 3: like a number though. If this kid Shuck comes out 621 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 3: and he's just dog shit in this preseason, this will 622 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 3: go to four and a half, like they will have 623 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 3: to move it if he's just that terrible. 624 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 5: You know, this. 625 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 3: Football is a weird sport, right where it's like this, 626 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 3: this is the type of team. They have enough veterans 627 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,200 Speaker 3: across the board that if he comes in he's just 628 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 3: comparable at the correct position, they could steal some games. 629 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 3: Right with Kamar, especially in the backfield, there is a 630 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 3: path there. 631 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 5: But I've gone and watched this kids. 632 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:09,720 Speaker 3: Film and he is so raw and bad and injury prone, 633 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 3: and then you look at the guys behind him. It 634 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 3: feels like a full on reset without them saying it's 635 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 3: a full on reset. And you don't get that much 636 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 3: on football, right, but you have to when you're a 637 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 3: team that spent your money in the worst way on 638 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 3: bad players along contracts, And it's basically all these backloaded 639 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 3: years from the Drew Brees era catching up to them, right. 640 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 5: It's it's just. 641 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 3: Been the really brutal in the books, the money they've 642 00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,480 Speaker 3: they've allocated these different players. 643 00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 5: So yeah, this was a game. I mean, this was 644 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 5: a line right away. 645 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 3: When I saw it open up, I jumped on the 646 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 3: under and I'm like you, I. 647 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,800 Speaker 5: Was just like, am I the fish here? 648 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 3: Is? 649 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 5: Is this too easy? 650 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 3: Because it's I didn't get the five and a half 651 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 3: hanging that number either. 652 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 5: I just I didn't know what. 653 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 3: The book's models giving them back to even think they 654 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 3: could get the six wins this season, because that's hard, 655 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 3: Like when you don't have anything at the quarterback position 656 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 3: and anything behind it, that is really hard to steal games. 657 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 3: Like if you if they had Joe Flacco there, I 658 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 3: might have hesitation. Honestly, I know it sounds stupid, but 659 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 3: if they had a comparable veteran quarterback, just because they 660 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 3: have so many good veterans on the team, it would 661 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 3: give me. Paul as cheb I think you, I and 662 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,480 Speaker 3: the public and most professional vetters are all the view 663 00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 3: of this is just a team much like the Giants 664 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 3: that you know, they don't mind to tank the season 665 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 3: because in their minds there's a great group of quarterbacks 666 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 3: coming out next year and it's a good time to reset. 667 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 3: If you're an organization like the Saints in a division 668 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 3: that you. 669 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 5: Know, all these teams say what you want. 670 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 3: They have their quarterbacks for the most part, right the 671 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 3: team Bryce Young, it's his team for now. You know, 672 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 3: the Bucks obviously have their quarterback, and we think Michael 673 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 3: Pennox will be the Atlantis quarterback. They they don't have 674 00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,959 Speaker 3: any identity right now the Saints. So I think that's why. 675 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 3: I mean, you're both so confident in this one. And 676 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 3: there's always going to be the scenario of the vikings 677 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,719 Speaker 3: like last year, right, there's always that randomness that if 678 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 3: a quarterback can come in and just shock a team 679 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 3: and breathe life into it. Nothing I've seen from this 680 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 3: kid Shuck has done that. Chet Like even the stuff 681 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 3: I'm reading Abouttle, it's just growing pain after growing pain, 682 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 3: after picked the linebacker, after picked in the cornerback, and practice. 683 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 3: It's just a steep, steep learning curve for someone like him. 684 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 3: Was a hell a lot of reps in college because 685 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 3: of injuries and other factors too. You are now in 686 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 3: the NFL at playing at the highest level, and you're 687 00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 3: supposed to be the leader of this team. I think 688 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 3: it's just a lot to ask of a kid like this. 689 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 3: So yeah, I think we're in sink here. It's one 690 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,440 Speaker 3: of my favorite bets, the under Saints five and a half. 691 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 1: It's Tyler Shock spelled s s h o u g 692 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 1: h but pronounced shock as in oh fuck, this guy's 693 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:52,360 Speaker 1: our quarterback. Yeah, and I'll throw a little another little 694 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 1: conspiracy at you. 695 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 2: Ready. I love it, Okay, ruling Saints clearly. 696 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 1: Not not being aggressive to get quarterbacks, to get quality competition, 697 00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:12,240 Speaker 1: like you said, so many salary cap issues that here. 698 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:13,439 Speaker 5: We go the coward take. 699 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 2: I don't know what's I don't know. I don't know 700 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 2: what the coward take. 701 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 5: Is about the Archie Manning. 702 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's what I was gonna say. Yeah, 703 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:24,360 Speaker 2: did he say that already? 704 00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 3: I'm almost positive I saw one of his clips on 705 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 3: my YouTube pop up from the volume. 706 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 1: Oh my god, I thought I was like, I thought 707 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: it was so far ahead of it. 708 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:35,040 Speaker 5: No, I'm I'm with it. 709 00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 3: I'm with you guys though, Like it's I've the expectations 710 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,839 Speaker 3: Archie man Yeah, but he might not even come out 711 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 3: this year, Like he's right, that's what someone just say. 712 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:46,359 Speaker 5: He might have come I don't I don't know if 713 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 5: he'll come out this year. But if he lights it up, 714 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:51,280 Speaker 5: why would he not come out. 715 00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:55,320 Speaker 2: Like he lights it up. Yeah, he's got and he's guaranteed, 716 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 2: you know, as much as anything's a guarantee to be 717 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,000 Speaker 2: the number one overall pick and go to the scene 718 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,840 Speaker 2: and the Saints have the number one overall pick. 719 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,359 Speaker 3: I would love for his dad to be like, no, 720 00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 3: you're going back to college. 721 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,240 Speaker 5: You ain't going yeah, New Orleans. 722 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 1: That's why we love sports, because there is symmetry and 723 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 1: poetry and romance, and we can all get behind these 724 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: stories because that is when we are at our happiest. 725 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,800 Speaker 1: Who doesn't want a great family story about Arch Manning 726 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: going to the Saints, revitalizing the team, bringing back joy 727 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:39,440 Speaker 1: to his hometown city, doing what his grandfather couldn't do 728 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 1: as the number one overall pick of the same exact team. 729 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 2: That is poetry. That's fucking Dylan Thomas shit right there. 730 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 3: Also, I love the thought of we were I think 731 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,839 Speaker 3: two weeks into the season last year, the Saints were 732 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,160 Speaker 3: two and oh, and there are people coming on different 733 00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 3: TV shows, different airwaves saying, bet the Saints to win 734 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 3: the NFC, bet them to win the division. This is 735 00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 3: a different team. They have all the pieces, So I 736 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,400 Speaker 3: think of how far they've come from that two and 737 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 3: oh start to where we're at right now, horebably the 738 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 3: worst team in football. It just NFL comes at you 739 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,600 Speaker 3: so fast, that can change so much. It's just I 740 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 3: feel for this franchise obviously. You know Drew Brees left, 741 00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,839 Speaker 3: Schean Payton left and left you holding the bag, right 742 00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,320 Speaker 3: with all these guys, you need to just blow it 743 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,240 Speaker 3: all up and reset. You have a lot of veterans 744 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,239 Speaker 3: on the team that you know, they're playing out their 745 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 3: contracts at the end, it's all coming to an end. 746 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:45,040 Speaker 3: This is going to be a two three four year rebuild. Like, 747 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 3: they have so much work to do. So that's the 748 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,440 Speaker 3: weird thing about them. That's why the books hung this 749 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,200 Speaker 3: at five and a half, because they do have enough 750 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,479 Speaker 3: veteran talent that if this kid Shuck comes in, he's good. 751 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,440 Speaker 3: This could hit to me like me and chat just 752 00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:58,840 Speaker 3: talking about I think the books are way off the 753 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,880 Speaker 3: mark here. I just everything I've s from this kid. 754 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:03,400 Speaker 3: He is not the answer to their problems right here. 755 00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 3: He's just naturally You see it right away. With some 756 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,920 Speaker 3: of these guys coming in like they can read the 757 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 3: field or they just have the god given ability. He 758 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,440 Speaker 3: has neither right now, so just it just feels like 759 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 3: dark days ahead. And I would tell you to grab 760 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 3: the five and a half now because I could see 761 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 3: this going to four and a half after a couple 762 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 3: of preseason games. 763 00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,440 Speaker 2: This has Chris Wanky vibes written all over it. 764 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:25,160 Speaker 5: I agree. 765 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,360 Speaker 2: Do you remember Chris Wanky? Were you old enough for 766 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 2: Chris Wanky? 767 00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 5: Yeah? Was he Florida? 768 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:34,760 Speaker 1: Chris Wanky was Florida State, had played baseball, got drafted 769 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 1: as a very old dude, went to the Panthers. They 770 00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:42,439 Speaker 1: put the ball in his hands and immediately with. 771 00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,200 Speaker 2: George Seffert, I think went one in fifteen. 772 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:49,279 Speaker 1: That's brutal, And you know you feel bad for these guys, 773 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:53,040 Speaker 1: right he's twenty five. Everyone like any other time, like twenty. 774 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:53,719 Speaker 2: Five always too old. 775 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 1: But they're playing that office maturity and it's a it's 776 00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 1: a hard spot to step into with an very good 777 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,279 Speaker 1: team with a new coach who probably knows, Hey, we're 778 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,640 Speaker 1: looking to play for next season, so do the best 779 00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:07,439 Speaker 1: you can this year. 780 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 2: We're going to give it to you. It could be 781 00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:12,919 Speaker 2: a very very tough road. 782 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 1: Favorite Bets, I feel like you and I are pretty aligned. 783 00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,839 Speaker 1: I made a list of my three favorite and I 784 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,880 Speaker 1: think they correspond directly with yours. I just don't know 785 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,800 Speaker 1: if they're in the same order. 786 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:28,680 Speaker 2: So you go first. 787 00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:32,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, my favorite bets would be Panthers over six and 788 00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,759 Speaker 3: a half, Saints under five and a half, and then 789 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 3: the Panthers Division plus four hundred. I just to me, 790 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,520 Speaker 3: that's the best value where you know, we'll talk right 791 00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,279 Speaker 3: before the season. I'll give it a couple of parlays. 792 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 3: I'll probably throw the Bucks into one. But as we're 793 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:49,920 Speaker 3: saying right now, I don't have a single dollar invest 794 00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,319 Speaker 3: in that Bucks team and they win total Super Bowl 795 00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 3: odds any of it. I'm just I don't know. I 796 00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,360 Speaker 3: hate that I'm so skeptical of this team, but I 797 00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,239 Speaker 3: just can't help it. There's just so many questions right 798 00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 3: now what they're going to be like with all the 799 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,400 Speaker 3: turnover at the offensive coordinator position. 800 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,920 Speaker 1: I had Saints under five and a half, Panthers over 801 00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 1: six and a half, uh, and then I had Falcons 802 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:16,200 Speaker 1: plus two thirty. I just couldn't get there on the 803 00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: Panthers to win the division. 804 00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:18,920 Speaker 2: I know it's the better value. 805 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:20,680 Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the Titans play right, Like 806 00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,560 Speaker 1: why invested short numbers when. 807 00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,440 Speaker 3: Even after my old Bucks playing the Bucks twice in 808 00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:27,719 Speaker 3: the last three weeks. 809 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,840 Speaker 2: You know, and now I think I'm rethinking it. 810 00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:31,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, so fuck it. 811 00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:36,080 Speaker 2: I'm with you, my man. Give me the panthers on it. 812 00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,400 Speaker 3: They're a little little guy on it, a little shekels. 813 00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,839 Speaker 5: Yeah, a little couple of win forty. Let's go party, 814 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 5: Let's go all right. 815 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 2: That was good. That was good. We're down. We've we've done. 816 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,200 Speaker 1: We've done the Southeastern teams, We've done the AFC South, 817 00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 1: We've now done the NFC South. The Favorites will return 818 00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 1: with our next episode Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page. 819 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,320 Speaker 2: Also subscribe at Real Chad Millman. 820 00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,719 Speaker 1: We're gonna cover our next NFL division preview downloads from Spotify, 821 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,240 Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate and review, subscribe, 822 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:08,440 Speaker 1: leave us fot stars. 823 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,560 Speaker 2: Say whatever you want. 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