WEBVTT - Eurasia Group Founder Ian Bremmer Talks International Relations

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>We are fair and balanced and as we had an

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<v Speaker 2>appalling Yankees moment there over.

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<v Speaker 3>The last ten minutes.

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<v Speaker 2>Our next guest on short note, we are honored to

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<v Speaker 2>have with us Ian Bremer. Of course, he has changed

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<v Speaker 2>the discussion of international relations at worldwide.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to have an.

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<v Speaker 2>Extended conversation here for all of you across the nation.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning internationally on.

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<v Speaker 2>The Pacific rim on YouTube, and your evening as well. Ian.

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<v Speaker 2>The charm of a Bremmer is a Red Sox fan

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<v Speaker 2>is not the leafy burbs of Weston or Wellesley. It

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<v Speaker 2>is the woodies and the prickies of Chelsea Housing. Growing

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<v Speaker 2>up tough in Boston. What was it like being a

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<v Speaker 2>Red Sox fan years ago under the Chelsea Housing Authority?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I mean going to see the Socks play at

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<v Speaker 4>the bleachers was one of the affordable, incredible pleasures of

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<v Speaker 4>being a kid. My grandpa used to take me, would

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<v Speaker 4>take the bus into the city. It was about a

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<v Speaker 4>thirty minute hike and you could walk over to Fenway

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<v Speaker 4>from Haymarket. Haymarket, as we used to say, those were

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<v Speaker 4>great days. And I was at the game last night.

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<v Speaker 4>I really enjoyed. It was a fantastic baseball.

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<v Speaker 3>Were you in the bleachers last night? Are you kidding?

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<v Speaker 4>I was looking at the bleachers last night. I was

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<v Speaker 4>expressing a level of empathy.

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<v Speaker 2>Ian. Let's talk about the international relations of a fractured America.

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<v Speaker 2>What is the state of our State Department right now?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, the State Department, I mean, you know, at least

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<v Speaker 4>you have someone who's quite capable that's actually running it.

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<v Speaker 4>Having said that, USAID has been eviscerated, as you know,

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<v Speaker 4>And the biggest concern among the professional diplomats I know,

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<v Speaker 4>both in office now and also those that have left,

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<v Speaker 4>is that countries around the world no longer believe the

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<v Speaker 4>United States is reliable as an ally, that America's ward

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<v Speaker 4>is no longer something that you want to count on.

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<v Speaker 4>The US is incredibly powerful, it's not in decline, but

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<v Speaker 4>that what the US will do for you is not

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<v Speaker 4>necessarily what it will say. And that's true on trade,

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<v Speaker 4>it's true on collective security. It's true on the treatment

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<v Speaker 4>of your citizens living in the United States or traveling

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<v Speaker 4>to the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>These things can.

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<v Speaker 4>Change on a dime on the whims of the president

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<v Speaker 4>and his top advisors.

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<v Speaker 1>And that worries these countries a great deal.

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<v Speaker 5>That level of disengagement Ian, do you think that is

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<v Speaker 5>reflective of this Republican Party When you.

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<v Speaker 1>Say disengagement, I'm sorry, what do you mean by that?

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<v Speaker 5>No, just the America first, a type of feeling within

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<v Speaker 5>the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the Republican Party is completely loyal to Trump,

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<v Speaker 4>and it doesn't really matter if a lot of them

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<v Speaker 4>feel differently about his doing a deal with China on

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<v Speaker 4>the Age twenty chips or coming to terms on TikTok.

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<v Speaker 4>It doesn't really matter if he says Ukraine's not that

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<v Speaker 4>important because it's an ocean away. Of course, a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of Republicans historically disagree with that, They disagree with Trump

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<v Speaker 4>opposing free trade, but the population has changed.

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<v Speaker 1>So, first of.

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<v Speaker 4>All, there are a lot of people that really oppose

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of neocons in the Republican Party that led

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<v Speaker 4>to very expensive, very deadly failed wars, And there are

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of traditional free trade Republicans that no longer

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<v Speaker 4>have the support of the population in pushing for globalization

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<v Speaker 4>and for taking tariffs down. We're in a radically different environment,

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<v Speaker 4>right We have tariffs at one hundred level, historic highs

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred year highs. And we also have a president

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<v Speaker 4>that's doing his damnest to reduce American security guarantees and

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<v Speaker 4>commitments to other countries around the world, even making big

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<v Speaker 4>questions about whether the US would stand up for Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 4>for example, long term. So I mean clearly a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of Republicans quietly uncomfortable with that.

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<v Speaker 2>It's so many ways to go, her Ian Bremer with

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<v Speaker 2>us for an extended conversation with Eurasia Group.

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<v Speaker 3>Ian, what people want to know? When's the next book out?

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<v Speaker 1>Give me a date sometime next year?

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<v Speaker 2>Sometime next year. Like, that's good enough. Ian, I want

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<v Speaker 2>to talk about Gaza. I want you to triangulate it

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<v Speaker 2>with Qatar, the president's relationship there, maybe with this desire

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<v Speaker 2>to win a peace prize and all that. How should

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<v Speaker 2>our listeners and viewers synthesize the cacophony of Gaza. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>looking at a video in the Washington Post this morning,

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<v Speaker 2>Greta Thunberg and others being the Israelis have taken over flotilla. Whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>How does Ian Bremer translate the horror of Gaza through

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<v Speaker 2>the American prism?

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<v Speaker 1>The two combatants.

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<v Speaker 4>Have very little consequence for continuing to engage in the fight.

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<v Speaker 4>It's been extremely hard to convince Israel that they should

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<v Speaker 4>limit the warfare on the ground in Gaza or against

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<v Speaker 4>the Axis of Resistance more broadly, because there have been

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<v Speaker 4>no consequences for them doing so, and of course, because

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<v Speaker 4>they're militarily and technologically dominant in the entire region.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been extremely.

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<v Speaker 4>Difficult to convince Hamas that they have to actually let

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<v Speaker 4>the hostages go, which was Trump's only applause line in

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<v Speaker 4>his fifty five minute speech at the UN Nations General

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<v Speaker 4>Assembly last week. Because they're terrorists, because there are a

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<v Speaker 4>bunch of dead enders, and because they recognize that they

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<v Speaker 4>face assassination kind of either way. And look, it's hard

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<v Speaker 4>to put yourself in the position of what would create

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<v Speaker 4>rationality among leadership of Hamas. But they're putting their own

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<v Speaker 4>people at risk every day, and they have for years now.

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<v Speaker 1>So in that regard, it's hard.

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<v Speaker 4>To maneuver much, though I think that there has been

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<v Speaker 4>success in putting a few small constraints on Israeli behavior.

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<v Speaker 4>Trump had been indifferent to Israeli annexation of the West Bank,

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<v Speaker 4>and he came out last week and said that they

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<v Speaker 4>will not do that. On the back of the UAE,

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<v Speaker 4>saying that they would leave the Abraham Accords if the

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<v Speaker 4>Israelis proceeded.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump had been actively promoting the.

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<v Speaker 4>Idea of removing Palestinians from Gaza. In fact, he said

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<v Speaker 4>as much when he was on stage with the King

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<v Speaker 4>of Jordan a few months ago, and he's now shifted

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<v Speaker 4>away from that to a plan that has been approved

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<v Speaker 4>by the golf Arabs and by the Israeli Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 4>that says that the Palestinians aren't going to be forced

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<v Speaker 4>to leave that rather, they're going to be able to

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<v Speaker 4>stay in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>And so, I mean, look, it's not stopping the war.

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<v Speaker 4>And as long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages,

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<v Speaker 4>I don't expect the war to end, even though I

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<v Speaker 4>think it would be much better for Israel and everyone

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<v Speaker 4>else involved if they would stop.

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<v Speaker 1>But I do think that we have a few guardrails,

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<v Speaker 1>however limited today that we didn't have a week ago.

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<v Speaker 5>Ian Let's switch gears to another hot spot, which would

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<v Speaker 5>be Ukraine. Is there any reason to believe that there

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<v Speaker 5>is some type of peace process possible in the near

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<v Speaker 5>intermediate term here?

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<v Speaker 4>I would say it's more likely that the completely stalled

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<v Speaker 4>offensive that Russia has had. It's been, you know, this grinding,

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<v Speaker 4>virtually no territory being taken, mass of casualties, particularly in

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<v Speaker 4>terms of the Russian soldiers.

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<v Speaker 1>Over a million casualties.

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<v Speaker 4>In this war for Russia so far in three and

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<v Speaker 4>a half years. It's a staggering number. It's hard to

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<v Speaker 4>even imagine what that means for society, but Putin doesn't care.

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<v Speaker 4>It's hard to imagine that that's going to continue the

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<v Speaker 4>way it has for the next six to twelve months,

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<v Speaker 4>in part because it's going to be very difficult for

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<v Speaker 4>Ukraine to continue to defend their territory and field the

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<v Speaker 4>soldiers to do so over the coming year.

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<v Speaker 1>But also in part because Trump is angry about this.

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<v Speaker 4>He thought that he was going to leverage his relationship

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<v Speaker 4>with Hut. However it existed into a ceasefire. He made

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<v Speaker 4>Putin a lot of offers, ending sanctions and the like,

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<v Speaker 4>and Putin said no, thank you, and has embarrassed Trump,

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<v Speaker 4>has angered Trump, and Trump Trump is bringing it up.

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<v Speaker 4>He never brings up his failures. He forgets about them.

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<v Speaker 4>It's one of his political skills. Not on Russia, and

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<v Speaker 4>instead he's talking about providing extended range missiles to Ukraine

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<v Speaker 4>that could take out Russian energy capability. And he's privately

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<v Speaker 4>pushing the Hungarians, the Turks, the Indians saying, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>I want you to end your purchasing of Russian oil.

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<v Speaker 4>He wasn't willing to do that a month ago.

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<v Speaker 1>So that there is.

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<v Speaker 4>Real movement here from President Trump himself to try to

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<v Speaker 4>not just offer putin a carrot ineffectually, but also include

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<v Speaker 4>some stick.

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<v Speaker 3>Doctor Remer, let's finish up with this.

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<v Speaker 2>We had a riveting conversation with Edmiral Mullin at the

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Global Forum the other day.

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<v Speaker 3>He was just on the South China Sea.

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<v Speaker 2>Extraordinary the submarine secrets there, the.

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<v Speaker 3>In the island off China.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Americans Ian are ignorant that Taiwan isn't one

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<v Speaker 2>monolithic island. Explain to us the strategic realities for Americans

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<v Speaker 2>of Kimman and Matsu Islands just off the coast of China.

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<v Speaker 2>What are the immediate risks to those frontline islands in Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, of course, China's ability if they wanted to engage

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<v Speaker 4>in warfare with less consequence, taking those over or blockading

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<v Speaker 4>those much easier, right and with very little ability for

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<v Speaker 4>the Americans to respond or its Asian allies to respond militarily.

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<v Speaker 1>But nobody really believes near turn that's going.

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<v Speaker 4>To happen, in part because the United States is oriented

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<v Speaker 4>to work with China on Taiwan. Look, Trump and chiesiin

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<v Speaker 4>Ping had a phone call much anticipated last Friday, and

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<v Speaker 4>the single thing that Trump most wanted, which he got,

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<v Speaker 4>was a nod from Xijinping on the US taking over

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<v Speaker 4>TikTok with political loyalists installed in charge of it. And

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<v Speaker 4>that's the thing that matters most to Trump. It allows

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<v Speaker 4>him to undermine the free media, control the information space,

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<v Speaker 4>and better ensure that he and his and his advisors

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<v Speaker 4>can control twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight. What

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<v Speaker 4>the Chinese want is for Trump to back away and

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<v Speaker 4>say that they oppose independence for Taiwan as Bush had

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<v Speaker 4>President Bush had once before, and I think that Trump

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<v Speaker 4>is oriented to provide that. Frankly, so, we're not heading

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<v Speaker 4>towards escalation right now with the Chinese. We're actually heading

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<v Speaker 4>towards both sides getting something that really matters to the

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<v Speaker 4>individual leaders.

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<v Speaker 3>You mentioned.

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<v Speaker 2>It was a fine one final question, I got eight

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<v Speaker 2>ways to go here folks with Ian Bremer are always

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<v Speaker 2>the case. You mentioned the collapse of US AID USAID.

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<v Speaker 2>I've got family members abroad that say it's been devastating

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<v Speaker 2>for Africa. Explain right now at the beginning of this

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<v Speaker 2>fourth quarter the impact of the lack of US AID.

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<v Speaker 4>The United States is the most powerful country in the

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<v Speaker 4>world's the strongest economy by far, and the US has

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<v Speaker 4>historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid

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<v Speaker 4>to other countries and to the people in those countries

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<v Speaker 4>that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're

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<v Speaker 4>vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're starving, whether they're facing

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<v Speaker 4>forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also

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<v Speaker 4>led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support

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<v Speaker 4>for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up,

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<v Speaker 4>like the World Food Program, for example. The United States

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<v Speaker 4>has decided that those things should no longer be priorities.

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<v Speaker 4>That America first means that these other countries should have

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<v Speaker 4>to make their own way, they should have to pay

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<v Speaker 4>for themselves.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity.

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<v Speaker 4>In the same way that when the Americans cut back

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<v Speaker 4>on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make

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<v Speaker 4>it easier for talented people to they won't be as

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<v Speaker 4>attractive in terms of their aid.

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<v Speaker 1>But if they are the lead power, I mean they made.

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<v Speaker 4>Up their dues, many of which were in arrears at

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<v Speaker 4>the UN the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay,

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<v Speaker 4>we'll pay some of ours now, so that they can

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<v Speaker 4>put forward that they're the ones that are more accountable.

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<v Speaker 1>Look, if you think that only American hard.

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<v Speaker 4>Power matters, and maybe in the short term that's true,

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<v Speaker 4>then and you don't care very much about non Americans

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<v Speaker 4>and don't think that they are as deserving or that

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<v Speaker 4>we should take care of any of them, we don't

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<v Speaker 4>have accountability, then.

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a mistake long term.

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<v Speaker 2>And thank you so much doctor Bremmer, with you raise

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<v Speaker 2>your group, and we thank him for his years

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<v Speaker 3>Of support of what we do with surveillance