Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: We are fair and balanced and as we had an
Speaker 2: appalling Yankees moment there over.
Speaker 3: The last ten minutes.
Speaker 2: Our next guest on short note, we are honored to
Speaker 2: have with us Ian Bremer. Of course, he has changed
Speaker 2: the discussion of international relations at worldwide.
Speaker 3: We're going to have an.
Speaker 2: Extended conversation here for all of you across the nation.
Speaker 3: Good morning internationally on.
Speaker 2: The Pacific rim on YouTube, and your evening as well. Ian.
Speaker 2: The charm of a Bremmer is a Red Sox fan
Speaker 2: is not the leafy burbs of Weston or Wellesley. It
Speaker 2: is the woodies and the prickies of Chelsea Housing. Growing
Speaker 2: up tough in Boston. What was it like being a
Speaker 2: Red Sox fan years ago under the Chelsea Housing Authority?
Speaker 4: Well, I mean going to see the Socks play at
Speaker 4: the bleachers was one of the affordable, incredible pleasures of
Speaker 4: being a kid. My grandpa used to take me, would
Speaker 4: take the bus into the city. It was about a
Speaker 4: thirty minute hike and you could walk over to Fenway
Speaker 4: from Haymarket. Haymarket, as we used to say, those were
Speaker 4: great days. And I was at the game last night.
Speaker 4: I really enjoyed. It was a fantastic baseball.
Speaker 3: Were you in the bleachers last night? Are you kidding?
Speaker 4: I was looking at the bleachers last night. I was
Speaker 4: expressing a level of empathy.
Speaker 2: Ian. Let's talk about the international relations of a fractured America.
Speaker 2: What is the state of our State Department right now?
Speaker 4: Well, the State Department, I mean, you know, at least
Speaker 4: you have someone who's quite capable that's actually running it.
Speaker 4: Having said that, USAID has been eviscerated, as you know,
Speaker 4: And the biggest concern among the professional diplomats I know,
Speaker 4: both in office now and also those that have left,
Speaker 4: is that countries around the world no longer believe the
Speaker 4: United States is reliable as an ally, that America's ward
Speaker 4: is no longer something that you want to count on.
Speaker 4: The US is incredibly powerful, it's not in decline, but
Speaker 4: that what the US will do for you is not
Speaker 4: necessarily what it will say. And that's true on trade,
Speaker 4: it's true on collective security. It's true on the treatment
Speaker 4: of your citizens living in the United States or traveling
Speaker 4: to the United States.
Speaker 1: These things can.
Speaker 4: Change on a dime on the whims of the president
Speaker 4: and his top advisors.
Speaker 1: And that worries these countries a great deal.
Speaker 5: That level of disengagement Ian, do you think that is
Speaker 5: reflective of this Republican Party When you.
Speaker 1: Say disengagement, I'm sorry, what do you mean by that?
Speaker 5: No, just the America first, a type of feeling within
Speaker 5: the Trump administration.
Speaker 4: I think the Republican Party is completely loyal to Trump,
Speaker 4: and it doesn't really matter if a lot of them
Speaker 4: feel differently about his doing a deal with China on
Speaker 4: the Age twenty chips or coming to terms on TikTok.
Speaker 4: It doesn't really matter if he says Ukraine's not that
Speaker 4: important because it's an ocean away. Of course, a lot
Speaker 4: of Republicans historically disagree with that, They disagree with Trump
Speaker 4: opposing free trade, but the population has changed.
Speaker 1: So, first of.
Speaker 4: All, there are a lot of people that really oppose
Speaker 4: a lot of neocons in the Republican Party that led
Speaker 4: to very expensive, very deadly failed wars, And there are
Speaker 4: a lot of traditional free trade Republicans that no longer
Speaker 4: have the support of the population in pushing for globalization
Speaker 4: and for taking tariffs down. We're in a radically different environment,
Speaker 4: right We have tariffs at one hundred level, historic highs
Speaker 4: one hundred year highs. And we also have a president
Speaker 4: that's doing his damnest to reduce American security guarantees and
Speaker 4: commitments to other countries around the world, even making big
Speaker 4: questions about whether the US would stand up for Taiwan,
Speaker 4: for example, long term. So I mean clearly a lot
Speaker 4: of Republicans quietly uncomfortable with that.
Speaker 2: It's so many ways to go, her Ian Bremer with
Speaker 2: us for an extended conversation with Eurasia Group.
Speaker 3: Ian, what people want to know? When's the next book out?
Speaker 1: Give me a date sometime next year?
Speaker 2: Sometime next year. Like, that's good enough. Ian, I want
Speaker 2: to talk about Gaza. I want you to triangulate it
Speaker 2: with Qatar, the president's relationship there, maybe with this desire
Speaker 2: to win a peace prize and all that. How should
Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers synthesize the cacophony of Gaza. I'm
Speaker 2: looking at a video in the Washington Post this morning,
Speaker 2: Greta Thunberg and others being the Israelis have taken over flotilla. Whatever.
Speaker 2: How does Ian Bremer translate the horror of Gaza through
Speaker 2: the American prism?
Speaker 1: The two combatants.
Speaker 4: Have very little consequence for continuing to engage in the fight.
Speaker 4: It's been extremely hard to convince Israel that they should
Speaker 4: limit the warfare on the ground in Gaza or against
Speaker 4: the Axis of Resistance more broadly, because there have been
Speaker 4: no consequences for them doing so, and of course, because
Speaker 4: they're militarily and technologically dominant in the entire region.
Speaker 1: It's been extremely.
Speaker 4: Difficult to convince Hamas that they have to actually let
Speaker 4: the hostages go, which was Trump's only applause line in
Speaker 4: his fifty five minute speech at the UN Nations General
Speaker 4: Assembly last week. Because they're terrorists, because there are a
Speaker 4: bunch of dead enders, and because they recognize that they
Speaker 4: face assassination kind of either way. And look, it's hard
Speaker 4: to put yourself in the position of what would create
Speaker 4: rationality among leadership of Hamas. But they're putting their own
Speaker 4: people at risk every day, and they have for years now.
Speaker 1: So in that regard, it's hard.
Speaker 4: To maneuver much, though I think that there has been
Speaker 4: success in putting a few small constraints on Israeli behavior.
Speaker 4: Trump had been indifferent to Israeli annexation of the West Bank,
Speaker 4: and he came out last week and said that they
Speaker 4: will not do that. On the back of the UAE,
Speaker 4: saying that they would leave the Abraham Accords if the
Speaker 4: Israelis proceeded.
Speaker 1: Trump had been actively promoting the.
Speaker 4: Idea of removing Palestinians from Gaza. In fact, he said
Speaker 4: as much when he was on stage with the King
Speaker 4: of Jordan a few months ago, and he's now shifted
Speaker 4: away from that to a plan that has been approved
Speaker 4: by the golf Arabs and by the Israeli Prime Minister
Speaker 4: that says that the Palestinians aren't going to be forced
Speaker 4: to leave that rather, they're going to be able to
Speaker 4: stay in Gaza.
Speaker 1: And so, I mean, look, it's not stopping the war.
Speaker 4: And as long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages,
Speaker 4: I don't expect the war to end, even though I
Speaker 4: think it would be much better for Israel and everyone
Speaker 4: else involved if they would stop.
Speaker 1: But I do think that we have a few guardrails,
Speaker 1: however limited today that we didn't have a week ago.
Speaker 5: Ian Let's switch gears to another hot spot, which would
Speaker 5: be Ukraine. Is there any reason to believe that there
Speaker 5: is some type of peace process possible in the near
Speaker 5: intermediate term here?
Speaker 4: I would say it's more likely that the completely stalled
Speaker 4: offensive that Russia has had. It's been, you know, this grinding,
Speaker 4: virtually no territory being taken, mass of casualties, particularly in
Speaker 4: terms of the Russian soldiers.
Speaker 1: Over a million casualties.
Speaker 4: In this war for Russia so far in three and
Speaker 4: a half years. It's a staggering number. It's hard to
Speaker 4: even imagine what that means for society, but Putin doesn't care.
Speaker 4: It's hard to imagine that that's going to continue the
Speaker 4: way it has for the next six to twelve months,
Speaker 4: in part because it's going to be very difficult for
Speaker 4: Ukraine to continue to defend their territory and field the
Speaker 4: soldiers to do so over the coming year.
Speaker 1: But also in part because Trump is angry about this.
Speaker 4: He thought that he was going to leverage his relationship
Speaker 4: with Hut. However it existed into a ceasefire. He made
Speaker 4: Putin a lot of offers, ending sanctions and the like,
Speaker 4: and Putin said no, thank you, and has embarrassed Trump,
Speaker 4: has angered Trump, and Trump Trump is bringing it up.
Speaker 4: He never brings up his failures. He forgets about them.
Speaker 4: It's one of his political skills. Not on Russia, and
Speaker 4: instead he's talking about providing extended range missiles to Ukraine
Speaker 4: that could take out Russian energy capability. And he's privately
Speaker 4: pushing the Hungarians, the Turks, the Indians saying, you know,
Speaker 4: I want you to end your purchasing of Russian oil.
Speaker 4: He wasn't willing to do that a month ago.
Speaker 1: So that there is.
Speaker 4: Real movement here from President Trump himself to try to
Speaker 4: not just offer putin a carrot ineffectually, but also include
Speaker 4: some stick.
Speaker 3: Doctor Remer, let's finish up with this.
Speaker 2: We had a riveting conversation with Edmiral Mullin at the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Global Forum the other day.
Speaker 3: He was just on the South China Sea.
Speaker 2: Extraordinary the submarine secrets there, the.
Speaker 3: In the island off China.
Speaker 2: I think Americans Ian are ignorant that Taiwan isn't one
Speaker 2: monolithic island. Explain to us the strategic realities for Americans
Speaker 2: of Kimman and Matsu Islands just off the coast of China.
Speaker 2: What are the immediate risks to those frontline islands in Taiwan.
Speaker 4: Well, of course, China's ability if they wanted to engage
Speaker 4: in warfare with less consequence, taking those over or blockading
Speaker 4: those much easier, right and with very little ability for
Speaker 4: the Americans to respond or its Asian allies to respond militarily.
Speaker 1: But nobody really believes near turn that's going.
Speaker 4: To happen, in part because the United States is oriented
Speaker 4: to work with China on Taiwan. Look, Trump and chiesiin
Speaker 4: Ping had a phone call much anticipated last Friday, and
Speaker 4: the single thing that Trump most wanted, which he got,
Speaker 4: was a nod from Xijinping on the US taking over
Speaker 4: TikTok with political loyalists installed in charge of it. And
Speaker 4: that's the thing that matters most to Trump. It allows
Speaker 4: him to undermine the free media, control the information space,
Speaker 4: and better ensure that he and his and his advisors
Speaker 4: can control twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight. What
Speaker 4: the Chinese want is for Trump to back away and
Speaker 4: say that they oppose independence for Taiwan as Bush had
Speaker 4: President Bush had once before, and I think that Trump
Speaker 4: is oriented to provide that. Frankly, so, we're not heading
Speaker 4: towards escalation right now with the Chinese. We're actually heading
Speaker 4: towards both sides getting something that really matters to the
Speaker 4: individual leaders.
Speaker 3: You mentioned.
Speaker 2: It was a fine one final question, I got eight
Speaker 2: ways to go here folks with Ian Bremer are always
Speaker 2: the case. You mentioned the collapse of US AID USAID.
Speaker 2: I've got family members abroad that say it's been devastating
Speaker 2: for Africa. Explain right now at the beginning of this
Speaker 2: fourth quarter the impact of the lack of US AID.
Speaker 4: The United States is the most powerful country in the
Speaker 4: world's the strongest economy by far, and the US has
Speaker 4: historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid
Speaker 4: to other countries and to the people in those countries
Speaker 4: that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're
Speaker 4: vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're starving, whether they're facing
Speaker 4: forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also
Speaker 4: led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support
Speaker 4: for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up,
Speaker 4: like the World Food Program, for example. The United States
Speaker 4: has decided that those things should no longer be priorities.
Speaker 4: That America first means that these other countries should have
Speaker 4: to make their own way, they should have to pay
Speaker 4: for themselves.
Speaker 1: Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity.
Speaker 4: In the same way that when the Americans cut back
Speaker 4: on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make
Speaker 4: it easier for talented people to they won't be as
Speaker 4: attractive in terms of their aid.
Speaker 1: But if they are the lead power, I mean they made.
Speaker 4: Up their dues, many of which were in arrears at
Speaker 4: the UN the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay,
Speaker 4: we'll pay some of ours now, so that they can
Speaker 4: put forward that they're the ones that are more accountable.
Speaker 1: Look, if you think that only American hard.
Speaker 4: Power matters, and maybe in the short term that's true,
Speaker 4: then and you don't care very much about non Americans
Speaker 4: and don't think that they are as deserving or that
Speaker 4: we should take care of any of them, we don't
Speaker 4: have accountability, then.
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and
Speaker 1: I think it's a mistake long term.
Speaker 2: And thank you so much doctor Bremmer, with you raise
Speaker 2: your group, and we thank him for his years
Speaker 3: Of support of what we do with surveillance