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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: We are fair and balanced and as we had an

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Speaker 2: appalling Yankees moment there over.

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Speaker 3: The last ten minutes.

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Speaker 2: Our next guest on short note, we are honored to

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Speaker 2: have with us Ian Bremer. Of course, he has changed

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Speaker 2: the discussion of international relations at worldwide.

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Speaker 3: We're going to have an.

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Speaker 2: Extended conversation here for all of you across the nation.

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Speaker 3: Good morning internationally on.

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Speaker 2: The Pacific rim on YouTube, and your evening as well. Ian.

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Speaker 2: The charm of a Bremmer is a Red Sox fan

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Speaker 2: is not the leafy burbs of Weston or Wellesley. It

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Speaker 2: is the woodies and the prickies of Chelsea Housing. Growing

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Speaker 2: up tough in Boston. What was it like being a

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Speaker 2: Red Sox fan years ago under the Chelsea Housing Authority?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean going to see the Socks play at

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Speaker 4: the bleachers was one of the affordable, incredible pleasures of

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Speaker 4: being a kid. My grandpa used to take me, would

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Speaker 4: take the bus into the city. It was about a

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Speaker 4: thirty minute hike and you could walk over to Fenway

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Speaker 4: from Haymarket. Haymarket, as we used to say, those were

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Speaker 4: great days. And I was at the game last night.

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Speaker 4: I really enjoyed. It was a fantastic baseball.

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Speaker 3: Were you in the bleachers last night? Are you kidding?

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Speaker 4: I was looking at the bleachers last night. I was

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Speaker 4: expressing a level of empathy.

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Speaker 2: Ian. Let's talk about the international relations of a fractured America.

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Speaker 2: What is the state of our State Department right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, the State Department, I mean, you know, at least

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Speaker 4: you have someone who's quite capable that's actually running it.

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Speaker 4: Having said that, USAID has been eviscerated, as you know,

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Speaker 4: And the biggest concern among the professional diplomats I know,

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Speaker 4: both in office now and also those that have left,

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Speaker 4: is that countries around the world no longer believe the

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Speaker 4: United States is reliable as an ally, that America's ward

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Speaker 4: is no longer something that you want to count on.

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Speaker 4: The US is incredibly powerful, it's not in decline, but

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Speaker 4: that what the US will do for you is not

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Speaker 4: necessarily what it will say. And that's true on trade,

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Speaker 4: it's true on collective security. It's true on the treatment

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Speaker 4: of your citizens living in the United States or traveling

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Speaker 4: to the United States.

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Speaker 1: These things can.

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Speaker 4: Change on a dime on the whims of the president

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Speaker 4: and his top advisors.

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Speaker 1: And that worries these countries a great deal.

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Speaker 5: That level of disengagement Ian, do you think that is

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Speaker 5: reflective of this Republican Party When you.

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Speaker 1: Say disengagement, I'm sorry, what do you mean by that?

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Speaker 5: No, just the America first, a type of feeling within

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Speaker 5: the Trump administration.

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Speaker 4: I think the Republican Party is completely loyal to Trump,

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Speaker 4: and it doesn't really matter if a lot of them

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Speaker 4: feel differently about his doing a deal with China on

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Speaker 4: the Age twenty chips or coming to terms on TikTok.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't really matter if he says Ukraine's not that

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Speaker 4: important because it's an ocean away. Of course, a lot

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Speaker 4: of Republicans historically disagree with that, They disagree with Trump

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Speaker 4: opposing free trade, but the population has changed.

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Speaker 1: So, first of.

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Speaker 4: All, there are a lot of people that really oppose

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Speaker 4: a lot of neocons in the Republican Party that led

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Speaker 4: to very expensive, very deadly failed wars, And there are

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Speaker 4: a lot of traditional free trade Republicans that no longer

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Speaker 4: have the support of the population in pushing for globalization

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Speaker 4: and for taking tariffs down. We're in a radically different environment,

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Speaker 4: right We have tariffs at one hundred level, historic highs

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Speaker 4: one hundred year highs. And we also have a president

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Speaker 4: that's doing his damnest to reduce American security guarantees and

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Speaker 4: commitments to other countries around the world, even making big

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Speaker 4: questions about whether the US would stand up for Taiwan,

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Speaker 4: for example, long term. So I mean clearly a lot

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Speaker 4: of Republicans quietly uncomfortable with that.

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Speaker 2: It's so many ways to go, her Ian Bremer with

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Speaker 2: us for an extended conversation with Eurasia Group.

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Speaker 3: Ian, what people want to know? When's the next book out?

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Speaker 1: Give me a date sometime next year?

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Speaker 2: Sometime next year. Like, that's good enough. Ian, I want

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Speaker 2: to talk about Gaza. I want you to triangulate it

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Speaker 2: with Qatar, the president's relationship there, maybe with this desire

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Speaker 2: to win a peace prize and all that. How should

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Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers synthesize the cacophony of Gaza. I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at a video in the Washington Post this morning,

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Speaker 2: Greta Thunberg and others being the Israelis have taken over flotilla. Whatever.

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Speaker 2: How does Ian Bremer translate the horror of Gaza through

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Speaker 2: the American prism?

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Speaker 1: The two combatants.

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Speaker 4: Have very little consequence for continuing to engage in the fight.

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Speaker 4: It's been extremely hard to convince Israel that they should

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Speaker 4: limit the warfare on the ground in Gaza or against

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Speaker 4: the Axis of Resistance more broadly, because there have been

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Speaker 4: no consequences for them doing so, and of course, because

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Speaker 4: they're militarily and technologically dominant in the entire region.

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Speaker 1: It's been extremely.

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Speaker 4: Difficult to convince Hamas that they have to actually let

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Speaker 4: the hostages go, which was Trump's only applause line in

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Speaker 4: his fifty five minute speech at the UN Nations General

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Speaker 4: Assembly last week. Because they're terrorists, because there are a

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Speaker 4: bunch of dead enders, and because they recognize that they

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Speaker 4: face assassination kind of either way. And look, it's hard

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Speaker 4: to put yourself in the position of what would create

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Speaker 4: rationality among leadership of Hamas. But they're putting their own

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Speaker 4: people at risk every day, and they have for years now.

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Speaker 1: So in that regard, it's hard.

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Speaker 4: To maneuver much, though I think that there has been

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Speaker 4: success in putting a few small constraints on Israeli behavior.

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Speaker 4: Trump had been indifferent to Israeli annexation of the West Bank,

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Speaker 4: and he came out last week and said that they

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Speaker 4: will not do that. On the back of the UAE,

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Speaker 4: saying that they would leave the Abraham Accords if the

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Speaker 4: Israelis proceeded.

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Speaker 1: Trump had been actively promoting the.

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Speaker 4: Idea of removing Palestinians from Gaza. In fact, he said

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Speaker 4: as much when he was on stage with the King

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Speaker 4: of Jordan a few months ago, and he's now shifted

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Speaker 4: away from that to a plan that has been approved

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Speaker 4: by the golf Arabs and by the Israeli Prime Minister

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Speaker 4: that says that the Palestinians aren't going to be forced

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Speaker 4: to leave that rather, they're going to be able to

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Speaker 4: stay in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: And so, I mean, look, it's not stopping the war.

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Speaker 4: And as long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages,

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Speaker 4: I don't expect the war to end, even though I

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Speaker 4: think it would be much better for Israel and everyone

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Speaker 4: else involved if they would stop.

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Speaker 1: But I do think that we have a few guardrails,

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Speaker 1: however limited today that we didn't have a week ago.

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Speaker 5: Ian Let's switch gears to another hot spot, which would

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Speaker 5: be Ukraine. Is there any reason to believe that there

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Speaker 5: is some type of peace process possible in the near

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Speaker 5: intermediate term here?

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Speaker 4: I would say it's more likely that the completely stalled

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Speaker 4: offensive that Russia has had. It's been, you know, this grinding,

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Speaker 4: virtually no territory being taken, mass of casualties, particularly in

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Speaker 4: terms of the Russian soldiers.

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Speaker 1: Over a million casualties.

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Speaker 4: In this war for Russia so far in three and

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Speaker 4: a half years. It's a staggering number. It's hard to

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Speaker 4: even imagine what that means for society, but Putin doesn't care.

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Speaker 4: It's hard to imagine that that's going to continue the

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Speaker 4: way it has for the next six to twelve months,

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Speaker 4: in part because it's going to be very difficult for

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Speaker 4: Ukraine to continue to defend their territory and field the

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Speaker 4: soldiers to do so over the coming year.

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Speaker 1: But also in part because Trump is angry about this.

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Speaker 4: He thought that he was going to leverage his relationship

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Speaker 4: with Hut. However it existed into a ceasefire. He made

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Speaker 4: Putin a lot of offers, ending sanctions and the like,

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Speaker 4: and Putin said no, thank you, and has embarrassed Trump,

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Speaker 4: has angered Trump, and Trump Trump is bringing it up.

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Speaker 4: He never brings up his failures. He forgets about them.

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Speaker 4: It's one of his political skills. Not on Russia, and

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Speaker 4: instead he's talking about providing extended range missiles to Ukraine

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Speaker 4: that could take out Russian energy capability. And he's privately

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Speaker 4: pushing the Hungarians, the Turks, the Indians saying, you know,

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Speaker 4: I want you to end your purchasing of Russian oil.

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Speaker 4: He wasn't willing to do that a month ago.

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Speaker 1: So that there is.

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Speaker 4: Real movement here from President Trump himself to try to

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Speaker 4: not just offer putin a carrot ineffectually, but also include

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Speaker 4: some stick.

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Speaker 3: Doctor Remer, let's finish up with this.

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Speaker 2: We had a riveting conversation with Edmiral Mullin at the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Global Forum the other day.

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Speaker 3: He was just on the South China Sea.

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Speaker 2: Extraordinary the submarine secrets there, the.

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Speaker 3: In the island off China.

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Speaker 2: I think Americans Ian are ignorant that Taiwan isn't one

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Speaker 2: monolithic island. Explain to us the strategic realities for Americans

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Speaker 2: of Kimman and Matsu Islands just off the coast of China.

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Speaker 2: What are the immediate risks to those frontline islands in Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: Well, of course, China's ability if they wanted to engage

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Speaker 4: in warfare with less consequence, taking those over or blockading

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Speaker 4: those much easier, right and with very little ability for

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Speaker 4: the Americans to respond or its Asian allies to respond militarily.

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Speaker 1: But nobody really believes near turn that's going.

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Speaker 4: To happen, in part because the United States is oriented

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Speaker 4: to work with China on Taiwan. Look, Trump and chiesiin

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Speaker 4: Ping had a phone call much anticipated last Friday, and

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Speaker 4: the single thing that Trump most wanted, which he got,

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Speaker 4: was a nod from Xijinping on the US taking over

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Speaker 4: TikTok with political loyalists installed in charge of it. And

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Speaker 4: that's the thing that matters most to Trump. It allows

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Speaker 4: him to undermine the free media, control the information space,

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Speaker 4: and better ensure that he and his and his advisors

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Speaker 4: can control twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight. What

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Speaker 4: the Chinese want is for Trump to back away and

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Speaker 4: say that they oppose independence for Taiwan as Bush had

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Speaker 4: President Bush had once before, and I think that Trump

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Speaker 4: is oriented to provide that. Frankly, so, we're not heading

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Speaker 4: towards escalation right now with the Chinese. We're actually heading

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Speaker 4: towards both sides getting something that really matters to the

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Speaker 4: individual leaders.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned.

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Speaker 2: It was a fine one final question, I got eight

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Speaker 2: ways to go here folks with Ian Bremer are always

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Speaker 2: the case. You mentioned the collapse of US AID USAID.

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Speaker 2: I've got family members abroad that say it's been devastating

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Speaker 2: for Africa. Explain right now at the beginning of this

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter the impact of the lack of US AID.

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Speaker 4: The United States is the most powerful country in the

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Speaker 4: world's the strongest economy by far, and the US has

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Speaker 4: historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid

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Speaker 4: to other countries and to the people in those countries

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Speaker 4: that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're

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Speaker 4: vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're starving, whether they're facing

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Speaker 4: forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also

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Speaker 4: led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support

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Speaker 4: for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up,

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Speaker 4: like the World Food Program, for example. The United States

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Speaker 4: has decided that those things should no longer be priorities.

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Speaker 4: That America first means that these other countries should have

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Speaker 4: to make their own way, they should have to pay

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Speaker 4: for themselves.

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Speaker 1: Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity.

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Speaker 4: In the same way that when the Americans cut back

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Speaker 4: on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make

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Speaker 4: it easier for talented people to they won't be as

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Speaker 4: attractive in terms of their aid.

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Speaker 1: But if they are the lead power, I mean they made.

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Speaker 4: Up their dues, many of which were in arrears at

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Speaker 4: the UN the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay,

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Speaker 4: we'll pay some of ours now, so that they can

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Speaker 4: put forward that they're the ones that are more accountable.

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Speaker 1: Look, if you think that only American hard.

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Speaker 4: Power matters, and maybe in the short term that's true,

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Speaker 4: then and you don't care very much about non Americans

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Speaker 4: and don't think that they are as deserving or that

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Speaker 4: we should take care of any of them, we don't

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Speaker 4: have accountability, then.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and

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Speaker 1: I think it's a mistake long term.

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Speaker 2: And thank you so much doctor Bremmer, with you raise

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Speaker 2: your group, and we thank him for his years

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Speaker 3: Of support of what we do with surveillance