WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Warren Sharp, NFL Strength of Schedule Analysis 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.000 Check it down Man, Now down Man. Tuesday, April toile 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.840 Beating the Book Podcast is Gil Alexander. Postmasters have a 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:21.360 little football podcast for you. Warren Sharp on the show 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.280 today to talk NFL strength of schedule. We don't yet 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:26.480 know who plays, who win, but now that we have 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.560 NFL season win totals out, we can give you an 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:33.880 educated analysis the Warren Sharp way. Not the mainstream media 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:37.240 sort of lazy who had what win percentage from last 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:40.560 year analysis, but a deep dive with Warren Sharp. Who's 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.520 got it easy, Who's got it rough? It's the National 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.440 Football League strength of schedule analysis right here on today's 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:50.160 Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy live from the Visan Studios 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.520 in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:55.240 now our number two of the numbers game right here 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.400 at Visa and we're sports Betting Analytics, live actionable sports 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:01.040 betting information. It's Gil alexand Series X and Channel two 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:03.120 A four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app. First, though, 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:05.120 it is our pleasure to have back on the show 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:09.360 for the first time since football season. When last we 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.399 spoke with him, he was being whisked off to the 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.760 Super Bowl between the Rams and the Patriots wind and dined, 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:18.880 having a good time, and we're thrilled to have him 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:22.400 here to talk about sort of the first level. We'll 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:24.920 get to the second level again when the actual chronology 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:28.640 of who's playing who in what weeks gets revealed, we'll 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:30.560 have him on again. But the first level of his 0:01:30.600 --> 0:01:33.160 analysis of strength of schedule, now that we have the 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:35.520 first season win totals from CG Technology, it's our friend 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:38.960 Warren Sharp. Good morning to you. Warren Hey, good morning Gil. 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:40.600 How are you and I'm doing very well. How was 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:44.080 the Super Bowl? Man? Was that a great experience for you? Yeah, 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:46.920 it's been a whirlwind. The Super Bowl was great, not 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:49.760 with a few teams down there, had a lot of fun, 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:52.400 came back before the game actually kicked off. I didn't 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.120 actually attend the Super Bowl. Uh. Then I went up 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:57.960 not long after to Indianapolis for the Combine that with 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:00.200 some more teams up there than I had to and 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:04.040 my tea conference up at Sloan Sports Analytics Conference up 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:07.760 there in Massachusetts. So I was up there for a 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.240 day and I met with another team up there, And 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:12.679 since then I've been back at my home base here 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:16.440 cranking away getting ready for the upcoming season. Wow, that 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:18.440 is a whirlwind. By the way, how was the Sloan 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.160 Sports Analytics Conference panel experience for you? That was your 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.120 first one ever? Right? It was. It was a lot 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.600 of fun, um, you know. Unfortunately I was up there 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.200 because they do the panel right during the middle of 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:31.840 the combine, so the teams that wanted to meet with 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:34.160 me out in Indy and then and they weren't coming 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:37.200 up to Sloan. They typically would, but because it was 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:40.200 right during the first couple of days of the combine, 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:42.280 like right in the heart of it, they couldn't get 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:44.160 away from there. And then there was other teams who 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.880 were going up to Sloan, so I was able to. 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:49.400 I had to like split my time between the two 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:51.760 uh and took a three day trip and spent I 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.160 guess most of it in Indy and then I was 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:56.600 only up in Boston for twenty four hours. So if 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:59.960 I would do it again, hopefully they spread it out 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:02.600 a little bit. I'm skeptical of that. I love to 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:04.440 spend a little bit more time up in Boston because 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.000 it was a lot of fun, but I love the city. 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:09.919 I loved being able to meet with some people back 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.160 in the Green room, a lot of the other speakers 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:15.840 got to meet with michae Leach, coach of the Washington 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:18.799 State football team, and he's a ton of fun and 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.800 we talked a little bit about game planning and strategy. Uh. 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:25.600 And you know this, this a very good experience. But 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:28.119 only regret is that it was a little bit short. Man. 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.720 What what That's awesome. We're just living through you right 0:03:30.760 --> 0:03:33.400 there for a second, just daydreaming that we were you 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:35.000 for a second before we get to your strength of 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:37.000 schedule analysis. Then I'd be remiss if I didn't ask 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:39.360 you since you brought it up so many times there, Warren. Uh, 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:41.480 do you have any wonderful announcements you'd like to make 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:43.040 about any of your meetings with teams or you want 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:46.200 to hold off of that? Uh? No, I actually haven't 0:03:46.240 --> 0:03:52.040 inked anything still uh receiving uh kind of offers discussing 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.640 things with teams, and UH haven't made any types of 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:59.960 decision yet. So I'm taking the process slow. But it's 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:03.520 it's good to see you wanted, so everybody wants. Well, 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:06.280 I'd like to have whatever you do, whatever contract you 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:07.800 you write, if you could have just the carve out 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:09.360 like I still get to do an hour with Gil 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.040 and crack on on Thursdays on a numberscap if you 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:13.880 could write, if you could write that in there. So 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:17.080 just so, the CG technology first, So the first season 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.480 win totals came out. CG technology first to post them 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:22.599 again this year, as they were last year, but this 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:25.120 year a little earlier, and we're seeing that throughout the 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:29.280 sports betting landscape. We had baseball season win totals earlier 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:31.760 than ever in January from Caesar's and now we have 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:34.320 CG doing it at the end of March. So let's 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:36.440 start with one of your tweets. This is actually your 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:42.080 relabeled graphic if you would, Warren on this one again. 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.480 All of this at sharp football stats dot com or 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:49.440 Sharp football analysis dot com. This is stats, right, yeah, okay, 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:51.839 this is Sharp football stats dot Com. Again. Warren has 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.320 great visuals where you can sort of in a snapshot 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.320 glean a lot of information. So walk us through briefly. 0:04:58.320 --> 0:04:59.720 We'll start with this one and then I'll sort of 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:04.080 ask you to steer us how you want to go. Yeah, so, obviously, 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:05.920 as you mentioned, you know, they came out with these 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:09.440 uh substantially earlier um than last year. I believe last 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.840 year's win totals, if I'm not mistaken, came up right 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:14.960 as the draft was starting. Maybe it was at the 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:17.920 first round of the draft. And this year obviously they 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.320 did them at the last day of March. So, um, 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:24.880 you know, I love seeing them earlier, the better we 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.080 can analyze until a little bit longer. The only downside 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:29.920 of that, of course, is you probably understand I don't 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:31.200 know what the limits are on these. I mean, it 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:34.160 could just be five dollars, which is worthless to toward. 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:36.679 A sort of tip your hand is to and bet 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:39.240 these things now if if um, you know, if you 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:42.599 can only get down five on them. So but I 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:46.160 believe the graphic that you're probably looking at their UM 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:49.359 showcases all the teams from the team that's projected to 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.240 win the most games to the team that's projected to 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:53.800 win the lease games, which is the Arizona Cardinals, and 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:56.599 then it compares that with what they did last season 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:59.839 with the record last season to show what the forecast 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:04.159 in provement UH is or regression. Maybe in the cases 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:07.279 of some teams, like for example, of the Chicago Bears 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:09.960 and the l A Rams, who are forecast to lose 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:12.640 two and a half more games this year than they 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.280 did last year. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're going 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:17.720 to be a bad team this year. What essentially means 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:20.480 is that those teams obviously had twelve and thirteen wins 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:23.839 respectively last season. And as you know, but for the listeners, 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.719 they don't lie win totals that high. In you know, 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:30.120 the start the season, everybody's win totals generally sprinkled right 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:33.320 around between eleven ish and uh and down to like 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:36.240 five ish. Sometimes there's a little bit above or below that, 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.400 but it doesn't really go further much further than that. 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:41.320 For the vast majority of the teams are kind of 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:44.479 bunched together, um, and so they tend to do that 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.760 because it's they're difficult to project. You know, a certain 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:49.359 teams are only going to win three games or two games, 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.719 even though every single year there are teams that obviously 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:55.280 only win three or two games. So, um, yeah, they're 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:57.799 the team that's obviously forecast to win the most games 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.160 that you can see on the graphic. I don't know, 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:02.400 but it's a Francisco in terms of their improvement over 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.400 last season. They only won four games last year. Obviously, 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:07.720 Jim and Garoppolo got injured, and now they're projected to 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:11.960 win eight games in twenty nineteen. Um, I factor juice 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.520 into this, So I have a little formula that takes 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:17.840 into consideration whether it's you know, minus one ten either 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.280 side that's going to be, you know, just a flat number. 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:23.120 But if it's minus one, minus one thirty, obviously they're 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.320 shading it a little bit higher. And so that shouldn't 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:28.000 be factored into what you're saying that their win total 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:30.840 actually is. Another team that's projected to win more games 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.800 compared to last year would be the Green Day Packers, 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:36.280 projected to win three point two more games than they 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:38.280 did last year. They won six games last year, right 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:41.280 now they're projected to win nine point two. Obviously can't 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.920 win nine point two, but just factoring in the juice, 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.200 that's what it shows. And part of the reason why 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:48.720 there is that although they did ei Aaron Rodgers the 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:52.160 full sixteen games, they got rid of Mike McCarthy and 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:54.640 they only won three out of nine games that ended 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:57.120 in one score, you know, one score game, meaning that 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:00.080 they either won or lost the game by with in 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.840 eight points. So once some single score, but the conversion 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.800 would get you to at least the tie. Um, they 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:09.000 only want three of their nine games, so you would 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.560 expect typically that they should regret to the meaning in 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:13.960 a positive manner in this case and win a little 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.400 bit more games. So that's why they are showing the 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.640 second highest improvement compared to what the team did last year. 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.480 And there is the tweet from Warren at Sharp Football 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:24.480 for those watching at Visa dot com, the Visa app, 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:28.200 Foobo TV, or Sling TV. Uh. And then listen, before 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:30.880 we get to the point where we know who's playing 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.200 who what weeks of the season, we can make some 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.480 general comments about strength of schedule, and you have as well, 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.680 uh in your tweet about the three teams with the 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.000 three easiest schedule based on current wind totals and the 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:46.000 three teams that have the three hardest. Who are those? Yes, 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.319 So you know the way that I like to break 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:53.360 down UM wind totals obviously is I look at I 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:56.360 use that to forecast strength of schedule. And as you know, 0:08:56.720 --> 0:08:58.959 still and this is a great point that you're kind 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.400 of at the forefront of beating the drum along with 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.840 me about sharing this with people that using prior year 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:10.000 win loss record to forecast the team's record for this year, 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:12.120 like assuming that they're going to win the exact same 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:14.719 number of games last year compared to this year, and 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:18.720 so forecasting strength of schedule for this season based on 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:23.000 what the teams did last year is astronomically dumb, and 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:27.200 so a lot of media outlets use that methodology. We 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.959 we don't want to fall into that group led by 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:34.200 you know, Shepherd down the wrong path. So we're going 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:36.320 in the correct way to look at things, which is, 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:40.960 let's look at the forecasted wins for this season. What 0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:43.480 are the books who are taking bets, willing to stake 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:47.200 their own reputation of money on these things going to 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.320 forecast these teams to do. And then let's an examine 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:52.760 strength of schedule based upon that. And when you do that, 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:55.080 what you find is that the three teams with the 0:09:55.120 --> 0:10:00.640 easiest schedules for nineteen are the Patriots, the jet and 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:04.880 the Eagles. And the three teams with the hardest schedules 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:09.720 are the Texans, the Broncos, and the Raiders. Now let's 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.120 talk about that. I'm sure you've got some comments, but 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:14.200 the one thing that jumps out to me the most is, 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:16.880 of course, a couple of really good teams with really 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:19.160 easy schedules, in part helped by the fact they don't 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.319 play themselves. You know, the Patriots don't have to play 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.520 the Patriots twice, so naturally they're not going to be 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.360 playing the most difficult team. But even so, they still 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:30.199 have a extremely easy schedule. They typically are easy, uh 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:33.520 have easier schedules most of the season because they played 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:35.480 the a FC East. That means they don't play themselves 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.560 and they play these other terrible teams six games. But 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.280 then the other side of it is the Texans. The 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.440 Texans at this time this last year, Gale, we talked 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:48.120 about this, Texans had the easiest schedule in the NFL 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.040 based on wind totals, the number one easy schedule that 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.240 I was forecasting, and that's one of the reasons why 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:56.720 some people started to look at setting their win total 0:10:56.840 --> 0:11:00.679 over last season placing that's on the Texan during the 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:01.959 course of the year. They were one of the most 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:05.760 popular teams last season in part because they're super easy 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.320 schedule and that was calculated based upon the forecasted win 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:12.160 totals is the easiest in the league, and it was 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:14.800 another good reason why they were a great spade in 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.360 the postseason because we knew how easy of the schedule 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.640 that they played during the season. They got the home 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.520 field game, and it was largely because they played the 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:25.160 easy schedule. But look what happens twenty nine team. They 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:28.040 played the most difficult schedule of any team in the 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:32.880 NFL for the upcoming year, complete opposite ends of the spectrum. 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.760 So naturally it would be wise to expect a little 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:37.920 bit more regression from this team is compared to what 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.240 they did last year. Yeah, and there's the tweet from Warren. 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:44.240 The Texans forecast in terms of the bottom five opponents 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:46.680 last year, they forecast before the season they were gonna 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.960 play five this year it's zero. And then, as it 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.679 resulted in in Aaron shots is Football Outsiders d v 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.840 o A, they ended up playing just two top ten 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.640 teams last year. We shall see what the case is 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.360 this coming year with the Texans. Warrent, hang out for 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.200 a second, if you would. Well, before we get to that, 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.680 one more thing about this, Uh, the Patriots interesting to 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:10.599 me again, easiest schedule the rest of the league, and 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.000 everybody listening is like, great, you know the Patriots. It 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.199 is by virtue of their division, right that this happens 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.160 every year, and there's a Dolphins at the very bottom 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.440 of the list this year in terms of their season 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.760 win total. So it's you know, the Patriots get that 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:26.160 in their favor. This dip down from what I heard 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:29.120 from eleven to ten and a half almost immediately like 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.800 for me, and I don't care how bearish one can 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.679 be on the Patriots. Okay, Tom Brady, the age curve, 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.800 I get it, uh, you know, but it's Tom Brady. 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:42.520 He defies every bit of logic possible. If you're going 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:46.079 to bed under on a ten and a half, you're 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.760 you're hoping the Patriots lose six football games in a 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:54.160 sixteen game schedule. Like to me, that's a Listen. I'm 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.480 not saying I'm rushing to bet the over, but I'm 0:12:56.559 --> 0:13:00.680 certainly not bending the under on that right. Well, the 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.240 difficult part, as you mentioned, you know, the Patriots play 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:06.040 in the a f C East and the a f 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.800 C East. Especially when you look at what the Miami 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.400 Dolphins are doing this year, you know they're going to 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.400 be worse than they were last year, and that's intentional. 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.880 They are not trying to play to win games necessarily 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.400 this season, and so um, that's a team that in 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.959 the past had been trying hard and now they're still 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.160 gonna be trying, but they just don't have the pieces. 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:31.000 They're clearly looking to rebuild for the future. So you 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:33.360 you look at that division, right, you look at that division, 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.920 and of course the Dolphins are projected right now to 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.280 win the fewest games, and so the Bills and the Jets. 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.960 Should they be better than last year? Yes, they should. 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.880 They have got last year they had rookie quarterbacks in there. 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.280 This year, those guys are in their second season, so 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.880 theoretically both of those teams should be a little bit better. 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.520 But you know, the Patriots are so good at home, 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.320 right and if you look at their non divisional schedule, 0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:00.800 we know that they play the Pittsburgh Steelers home, so 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:02.600 we already know that. You can go to Shark Football 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:04.240 Stats and you can look at the strength of schedule. 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:06.960 You can view all the home road opponents and what 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.600 how strong they are. They play the Steelers at home, 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.439 which is one of the best teams that they're going 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.840 to face this season. They also get the Cleveland Browns 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.120 at home, so those two teams to get to play 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.640 them at home, as well as the Dallas Cowboys. They 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.520 also play the hardest team on their entire schedule at home, 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:25.200 the Kansas City Chiefs. So those four teams, they get 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:26.800 all of those at home. Who do they have to 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:28.560 go on the road and face, Well, they go on 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:30.520 the road. Obviously, those are the more difficult games that 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.320 you're looking for. Where's Tom Brady gonna stumble, where's the 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.160 team's gonna have proms? Well, obviously they have to play 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.480 down at Miami. They tend to struggle sometimes when they 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:40.840 go down to Miami. That's gonna happen every single year 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.600 they play in Miami. They get to go on the 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.040 road and they play the the Cincinnati Bengals. They also 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.440 play the Washington Redskins, two of the bottom five teams 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:50.920 sorry for your Skins in the NFL. Terms of the 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:54.080 forecast for this upcoming season, they have three difficult games 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.120 on the road, but they're manageable because you look at 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:00.880 the I guess the overall quarterback h uarterback talent that 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:02.800 they're going to face. The hardest of the three is 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.520 going to be the Philadelphiagles, who are really looking strong 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.360 this upcoming season. Then they go to Baltimore and play 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.440 the Baltimore Ravens, obviously Lamar Jackson. If you can get 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.800 ahead a lead on Lamar Jackson is gonna be difficult 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:15.560 for him to get throw the ball and get back 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:17.800 in the game, right, So that could That's an interesting 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:19.840 type of game, the way that's going to flow. And 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:21.920 then you've got to Houston Texans, who we just talked about. 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.800 They didn't play anybody last season. Going up against Tom 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.640 Brady in this offense, we go, theyre going to Rob Groomkowski. 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:29.680 But it's got a great coach and great quarterbacks, So 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:33.320 I understand. You know, it's different any year that you're 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:35.480 betting the over on a New England Patriots, like you 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.480 tend to end up winning. But it's not like you're 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.120 going to slam dunk be in the driver's seat like 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.120 the whole way through. There's times when it's close towards 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.600 the end of the season. Um, but the schedule definitely 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.720 is very valuable for them to have so many difficult 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:54.320 games at home and games that there should have pretty 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:57.040 good success with on the road. Lauren, hang out for 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:58.760 one second. I want to get to a few more 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.240 of these, just three more of these, one of which 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:05.240 has to do with teams who schedule eases up the 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.040 most from last year based on efficiency to this year 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:12.280 forecast strength of schedule based on wind totals. Also want 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.600 to talk about the New York Giants for Giants fans 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.560 out there. Warren Sharp at Sharp Football on Twitter right 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:20.920 here on a numbers game at Visa. Support for today's 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.360 show has always comes from book maker dot EU and 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.400 industry leader for close to thirty years now. Pro players 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.400 consider them a must because of the holy trinity my 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.240 words out there's their first to post dods. They take 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.760 the highest limits and they pride themselves on never having 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:40.200 kicked out a winning player. That is the trifecta you 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:42.560 are looking for, and it is rare believe me. They're 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.200 high volume sports book best suited for the sophisticated player 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.880 who understands sports betted, but they also cater to large 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:50.800 recreational players as well, and their motto remains as it 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.200 always has been, where the lines originate, because chances are, 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.320 wherever you're playing right now, whatever that sports book is, 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:01.680 they got their lines from bookmaker. There following Bookmaker's lines 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.040 and right now, if you visit bookmaker dot you slash 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.600 gill Let's Bookmaker dot E slash g I l L 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.600 you can claim an exclusive welcome bonus of up to 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:13.359 three hundred dollars. That's Bookmaker dot E slash Gill to 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:15.480 join and claim your welcome bonus of up to three 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.159 hundred dollars right now. They're a key cog in my 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.960 betting arsenal. They are a key cog in anyone that 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:24.640 I know who bets seriously in their arsenal as well. 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.879 Book Maker dot EU slash Gil. Check it out. You 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.600 will thank me later. Down back to a numbers game 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.960 with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.520 in studios in Las Vegas. It is a numbers game 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:39.960 right here where sports betting analytics live right here on 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:43.639 Visa actionable sports betting information. And again honored to have 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.280 Warren Sharp on the show once again our special offseason 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:49.720 Warren Sharp Appearances. We'll do it again when the uh, 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.000 the actual calendar, the schedule comes out where we know 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.520 who's playing which team in which particular week, and then 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.200 we can break it down through Warren's lens in terms 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.400 of what teams start with har schedules, what teams start 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:05.080 with these schedules, what teams play tough defenses or are 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:08.320 easy past defenses will parse it out unit by unit 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.560 at that point. Uh So, Warren, I'm throwing that out 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:15.119 there for a later summertime appearance, if you would, because 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:19.639 that would be fun to break down. Always good. I 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.200 like that. Let's let's conclude what we have here though 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:26.560 from you. Uh this one also from yesterday again CG 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.480 Technology putting out our first season win totals of the 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.879 football season here in Las Vegas. They did so on 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:38.120 March thirty one. Let's let's start with this one here, um, 0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:41.840 which has to do with comparing actual strength schedule based 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:45.919 on efficiency versus forecast strength of schedule based on wind totals. 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:51.040 The teams who schedule eases up the most, right. So 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.199 this is another kind of you know, I'm I'm a 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.480 I'm a geek about trying to analyze things that other 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:58.560 people aren't looking at. Number one, you can find a 0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:01.920 lot of edges that way, and number two, it's fun 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:04.359 to talk about, fun to share the types of revelations. 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:06.320 So one of the things that I definitely like to 0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:11.440 look at is how does the schedule look at this 0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:15.880 point heading into ten compared to what the teams faced 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:19.119 last year? And we know what their actual strength of 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.880 schedule was last year, so we're not using forecasted win 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.760 totals here. We're looking at what are they actually play 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:27.359 last year and then what are we forecasting for this 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:30.840 upcoming year. And so the teams that who schedule, the 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:34.280 top five teams to schedule eases up the most. Number 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:38.200 one is the Cleveland Browns. Number two is the Cincinnati Bengals. 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.600 Number three the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then you have the Buffalo 0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:45.560 Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles. So the Cleveland Browns, the Bengals, 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:48.240 and the Steelers, those teams obviously are all in the 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.199