Speaker 1: Check it down Man, Now down Man. Tuesday, April toile
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast is Gil Alexander. Postmasters have a
Speaker 1: little football podcast for you. Warren Sharp on the show
Speaker 1: today to talk NFL strength of schedule. We don't yet
Speaker 1: know who plays, who win, but now that we have
Speaker 1: NFL season win totals out, we can give you an
Speaker 1: educated analysis the Warren Sharp way. Not the mainstream media
Speaker 1: sort of lazy who had what win percentage from last
Speaker 1: year analysis, but a deep dive with Warren Sharp. Who's
Speaker 1: got it easy, Who's got it rough? It's the National
Speaker 1: Football League strength of schedule analysis right here on today's
Speaker 1: Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy live from the Visan Studios
Speaker 1: in the South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander
Speaker 1: now our number two of the numbers game right here
Speaker 1: at Visa and we're sports Betting Analytics, live actionable sports
Speaker 1: betting information. It's Gil alexand Series X and Channel two
Speaker 1: A four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app. First, though,
Speaker 1: it is our pleasure to have back on the show
Speaker 1: for the first time since football season. When last we
Speaker 1: spoke with him, he was being whisked off to the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl between the Rams and the Patriots wind and dined,
Speaker 1: having a good time, and we're thrilled to have him
Speaker 1: here to talk about sort of the first level. We'll
Speaker 1: get to the second level again when the actual chronology
Speaker 1: of who's playing who in what weeks gets revealed, we'll
Speaker 1: have him on again. But the first level of his
Speaker 1: analysis of strength of schedule, now that we have the
Speaker 1: first season win totals from CG Technology, it's our friend
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp. Good morning to you. Warren Hey, good morning Gil.
Speaker 1: How are you and I'm doing very well. How was
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl? Man? Was that a great experience for you? Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's been a whirlwind. The Super Bowl was great, not
Speaker 1: with a few teams down there, had a lot of fun,
Speaker 1: came back before the game actually kicked off. I didn't
Speaker 1: actually attend the Super Bowl. Uh. Then I went up
Speaker 1: not long after to Indianapolis for the Combine that with
Speaker 1: some more teams up there than I had to and
Speaker 1: my tea conference up at Sloan Sports Analytics Conference up
Speaker 1: there in Massachusetts. So I was up there for a
Speaker 1: day and I met with another team up there, And
Speaker 1: since then I've been back at my home base here
Speaker 1: cranking away getting ready for the upcoming season. Wow, that
Speaker 1: is a whirlwind. By the way, how was the Sloan
Speaker 1: Sports Analytics Conference panel experience for you? That was your
Speaker 1: first one ever? Right? It was. It was a lot
Speaker 1: of fun, um, you know. Unfortunately I was up there
Speaker 1: because they do the panel right during the middle of
Speaker 1: the combine, so the teams that wanted to meet with
Speaker 1: me out in Indy and then and they weren't coming
Speaker 1: up to Sloan. They typically would, but because it was
Speaker 1: right during the first couple of days of the combine,
Speaker 1: like right in the heart of it, they couldn't get
Speaker 1: away from there. And then there was other teams who
Speaker 1: were going up to Sloan, so I was able to.
Speaker 1: I had to like split my time between the two
Speaker 1: uh and took a three day trip and spent I
Speaker 1: guess most of it in Indy and then I was
Speaker 1: only up in Boston for twenty four hours. So if
Speaker 1: I would do it again, hopefully they spread it out
Speaker 1: a little bit. I'm skeptical of that. I love to
Speaker 1: spend a little bit more time up in Boston because
Speaker 1: it was a lot of fun, but I love the city.
Speaker 1: I loved being able to meet with some people back
Speaker 1: in the Green room, a lot of the other speakers
Speaker 1: got to meet with michae Leach, coach of the Washington
Speaker 1: State football team, and he's a ton of fun and
Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about game planning and strategy. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you know this, this a very good experience. But
Speaker 1: only regret is that it was a little bit short. Man.
Speaker 1: What what That's awesome. We're just living through you right
Speaker 1: there for a second, just daydreaming that we were you
Speaker 1: for a second before we get to your strength of
Speaker 1: schedule analysis. Then I'd be remiss if I didn't ask
Speaker 1: you since you brought it up so many times there, Warren. Uh,
Speaker 1: do you have any wonderful announcements you'd like to make
Speaker 1: about any of your meetings with teams or you want
Speaker 1: to hold off of that? Uh? No, I actually haven't
Speaker 1: inked anything still uh receiving uh kind of offers discussing
Speaker 1: things with teams, and UH haven't made any types of
Speaker 1: decision yet. So I'm taking the process slow. But it's
Speaker 1: it's good to see you wanted, so everybody wants. Well,
Speaker 1: I'd like to have whatever you do, whatever contract you
Speaker 1: you write, if you could have just the carve out
Speaker 1: like I still get to do an hour with Gil
Speaker 1: and crack on on Thursdays on a numberscap if you
Speaker 1: could write, if you could write that in there. So
Speaker 1: just so, the CG technology first, So the first season
Speaker 1: win totals came out. CG technology first to post them
Speaker 1: again this year, as they were last year, but this
Speaker 1: year a little earlier, and we're seeing that throughout the
Speaker 1: sports betting landscape. We had baseball season win totals earlier
Speaker 1: than ever in January from Caesar's and now we have
Speaker 1: CG doing it at the end of March. So let's
Speaker 1: start with one of your tweets. This is actually your
Speaker 1: relabeled graphic if you would, Warren on this one again.
Speaker 1: All of this at sharp football stats dot com or
Speaker 1: Sharp football analysis dot com. This is stats, right, yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: this is Sharp football stats dot Com. Again. Warren has
Speaker 1: great visuals where you can sort of in a snapshot
Speaker 1: glean a lot of information. So walk us through briefly.
Speaker 1: We'll start with this one and then I'll sort of
Speaker 1: ask you to steer us how you want to go. Yeah, so, obviously,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, you know, they came out with these
Speaker 1: uh substantially earlier um than last year. I believe last
Speaker 1: year's win totals, if I'm not mistaken, came up right
Speaker 1: as the draft was starting. Maybe it was at the
Speaker 1: first round of the draft. And this year obviously they
Speaker 1: did them at the last day of March. So, um,
Speaker 1: you know, I love seeing them earlier, the better we
Speaker 1: can analyze until a little bit longer. The only downside
Speaker 1: of that, of course, is you probably understand I don't
Speaker 1: know what the limits are on these. I mean, it
Speaker 1: could just be five dollars, which is worthless to toward.
Speaker 1: A sort of tip your hand is to and bet
Speaker 1: these things now if if um, you know, if you
Speaker 1: can only get down five on them. So but I
Speaker 1: believe the graphic that you're probably looking at their UM
Speaker 1: showcases all the teams from the team that's projected to
Speaker 1: win the most games to the team that's projected to
Speaker 1: win the lease games, which is the Arizona Cardinals, and
Speaker 1: then it compares that with what they did last season
Speaker 1: with the record last season to show what the forecast
Speaker 1: in provement UH is or regression. Maybe in the cases
Speaker 1: of some teams, like for example, of the Chicago Bears
Speaker 1: and the l A Rams, who are forecast to lose
Speaker 1: two and a half more games this year than they
Speaker 1: did last year. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're going
Speaker 1: to be a bad team this year. What essentially means
Speaker 1: is that those teams obviously had twelve and thirteen wins
Speaker 1: respectively last season. And as you know, but for the listeners,
Speaker 1: they don't lie win totals that high. In you know,
Speaker 1: the start the season, everybody's win totals generally sprinkled right
Speaker 1: around between eleven ish and uh and down to like
Speaker 1: five ish. Sometimes there's a little bit above or below that,
Speaker 1: but it doesn't really go further much further than that.
Speaker 1: For the vast majority of the teams are kind of
Speaker 1: bunched together, um, and so they tend to do that
Speaker 1: because it's they're difficult to project. You know, a certain
Speaker 1: teams are only going to win three games or two games,
Speaker 1: even though every single year there are teams that obviously
Speaker 1: only win three or two games. So, um, yeah, they're
Speaker 1: the team that's obviously forecast to win the most games
Speaker 1: that you can see on the graphic. I don't know,
Speaker 1: but it's a Francisco in terms of their improvement over
Speaker 1: last season. They only won four games last year. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Jim and Garoppolo got injured, and now they're projected to
Speaker 1: win eight games in twenty nineteen. Um, I factor juice
Speaker 1: into this, So I have a little formula that takes
Speaker 1: into consideration whether it's you know, minus one ten either
Speaker 1: side that's going to be, you know, just a flat number.
Speaker 1: But if it's minus one, minus one thirty, obviously they're
Speaker 1: shading it a little bit higher. And so that shouldn't
Speaker 1: be factored into what you're saying that their win total
Speaker 1: actually is. Another team that's projected to win more games
Speaker 1: compared to last year would be the Green Day Packers,
Speaker 1: projected to win three point two more games than they
Speaker 1: did last year. They won six games last year, right
Speaker 1: now they're projected to win nine point two. Obviously can't
Speaker 1: win nine point two, but just factoring in the juice,
Speaker 1: that's what it shows. And part of the reason why
Speaker 1: there is that although they did ei Aaron Rodgers the
Speaker 1: full sixteen games, they got rid of Mike McCarthy and
Speaker 1: they only won three out of nine games that ended
Speaker 1: in one score, you know, one score game, meaning that
Speaker 1: they either won or lost the game by with in
Speaker 1: eight points. So once some single score, but the conversion
Speaker 1: would get you to at least the tie. Um, they
Speaker 1: only want three of their nine games, so you would
Speaker 1: expect typically that they should regret to the meaning in
Speaker 1: a positive manner in this case and win a little
Speaker 1: bit more games. So that's why they are showing the
Speaker 1: second highest improvement compared to what the team did last year.
Speaker 1: And there is the tweet from Warren at Sharp Football
Speaker 1: for those watching at Visa dot com, the Visa app,
Speaker 1: Foobo TV, or Sling TV. Uh. And then listen, before
Speaker 1: we get to the point where we know who's playing
Speaker 1: who what weeks of the season, we can make some
Speaker 1: general comments about strength of schedule, and you have as well,
Speaker 1: uh in your tweet about the three teams with the
Speaker 1: three easiest schedule based on current wind totals and the
Speaker 1: three teams that have the three hardest. Who are those? Yes,
Speaker 1: So you know the way that I like to break
Speaker 1: down UM wind totals obviously is I look at I
Speaker 1: use that to forecast strength of schedule. And as you know,
Speaker 1: still and this is a great point that you're kind
Speaker 1: of at the forefront of beating the drum along with
Speaker 1: me about sharing this with people that using prior year
Speaker 1: win loss record to forecast the team's record for this year,
Speaker 1: like assuming that they're going to win the exact same
Speaker 1: number of games last year compared to this year, and
Speaker 1: so forecasting strength of schedule for this season based on
Speaker 1: what the teams did last year is astronomically dumb, and
Speaker 1: so a lot of media outlets use that methodology. We
Speaker 1: we don't want to fall into that group led by
Speaker 1: you know, Shepherd down the wrong path. So we're going
Speaker 1: in the correct way to look at things, which is,
Speaker 1: let's look at the forecasted wins for this season. What
Speaker 1: are the books who are taking bets, willing to stake
Speaker 1: their own reputation of money on these things going to
Speaker 1: forecast these teams to do. And then let's an examine
Speaker 1: strength of schedule based upon that. And when you do that,
Speaker 1: what you find is that the three teams with the
Speaker 1: easiest schedules for nineteen are the Patriots, the jet and
Speaker 1: the Eagles. And the three teams with the hardest schedules
Speaker 1: are the Texans, the Broncos, and the Raiders. Now let's
Speaker 1: talk about that. I'm sure you've got some comments, but
Speaker 1: the one thing that jumps out to me the most is,
Speaker 1: of course, a couple of really good teams with really
Speaker 1: easy schedules, in part helped by the fact they don't
Speaker 1: play themselves. You know, the Patriots don't have to play
Speaker 1: the Patriots twice, so naturally they're not going to be
Speaker 1: playing the most difficult team. But even so, they still
Speaker 1: have a extremely easy schedule. They typically are easy, uh
Speaker 1: have easier schedules most of the season because they played
Speaker 1: the a FC East. That means they don't play themselves
Speaker 1: and they play these other terrible teams six games. But
Speaker 1: then the other side of it is the Texans. The
Speaker 1: Texans at this time this last year, Gale, we talked
Speaker 1: about this, Texans had the easiest schedule in the NFL
Speaker 1: based on wind totals, the number one easy schedule that
Speaker 1: I was forecasting, and that's one of the reasons why
Speaker 1: some people started to look at setting their win total
Speaker 1: over last season placing that's on the Texan during the
Speaker 1: course of the year. They were one of the most
Speaker 1: popular teams last season in part because they're super easy
Speaker 1: schedule and that was calculated based upon the forecasted win
Speaker 1: totals is the easiest in the league, and it was
Speaker 1: another good reason why they were a great spade in
Speaker 1: the postseason because we knew how easy of the schedule
Speaker 1: that they played during the season. They got the home
Speaker 1: field game, and it was largely because they played the
Speaker 1: easy schedule. But look what happens twenty nine team. They
Speaker 1: played the most difficult schedule of any team in the
Speaker 1: NFL for the upcoming year, complete opposite ends of the spectrum.
Speaker 1: So naturally it would be wise to expect a little
Speaker 1: bit more regression from this team is compared to what
Speaker 1: they did last year. Yeah, and there's the tweet from Warren.
Speaker 1: The Texans forecast in terms of the bottom five opponents
Speaker 1: last year, they forecast before the season they were gonna
Speaker 1: play five this year it's zero. And then, as it
Speaker 1: resulted in in Aaron shots is Football Outsiders d v
Speaker 1: o A, they ended up playing just two top ten
Speaker 1: teams last year. We shall see what the case is
Speaker 1: this coming year with the Texans. Warrent, hang out for
Speaker 1: a second, if you would. Well, before we get to that,
Speaker 1: one more thing about this, Uh, the Patriots interesting to
Speaker 1: me again, easiest schedule the rest of the league, and
Speaker 1: everybody listening is like, great, you know the Patriots. It
Speaker 1: is by virtue of their division, right that this happens
Speaker 1: every year, and there's a Dolphins at the very bottom
Speaker 1: of the list this year in terms of their season
Speaker 1: win total. So it's you know, the Patriots get that
Speaker 1: in their favor. This dip down from what I heard
Speaker 1: from eleven to ten and a half almost immediately like
Speaker 1: for me, and I don't care how bearish one can
Speaker 1: be on the Patriots. Okay, Tom Brady, the age curve,
Speaker 1: I get it, uh, you know, but it's Tom Brady.
Speaker 1: He defies every bit of logic possible. If you're going
Speaker 1: to bed under on a ten and a half, you're
Speaker 1: you're hoping the Patriots lose six football games in a
Speaker 1: sixteen game schedule. Like to me, that's a Listen. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying I'm rushing to bet the over, but I'm
Speaker 1: certainly not bending the under on that right. Well, the
Speaker 1: difficult part, as you mentioned, you know, the Patriots play
Speaker 1: in the a f C East and the a f
Speaker 1: C East. Especially when you look at what the Miami
Speaker 1: Dolphins are doing this year, you know they're going to
Speaker 1: be worse than they were last year, and that's intentional.
Speaker 1: They are not trying to play to win games necessarily
Speaker 1: this season, and so um, that's a team that in
Speaker 1: the past had been trying hard and now they're still
Speaker 1: gonna be trying, but they just don't have the pieces.
Speaker 1: They're clearly looking to rebuild for the future. So you
Speaker 1: you look at that division, right, you look at that division,
Speaker 1: and of course the Dolphins are projected right now to
Speaker 1: win the fewest games, and so the Bills and the Jets.
Speaker 1: Should they be better than last year? Yes, they should.
Speaker 1: They have got last year they had rookie quarterbacks in there.
Speaker 1: This year, those guys are in their second season, so
Speaker 1: theoretically both of those teams should be a little bit better.
Speaker 1: But you know, the Patriots are so good at home,
Speaker 1: right and if you look at their non divisional schedule,
Speaker 1: we know that they play the Pittsburgh Steelers home, so
Speaker 1: we already know that. You can go to Shark Football
Speaker 1: Stats and you can look at the strength of schedule.
Speaker 1: You can view all the home road opponents and what
Speaker 1: how strong they are. They play the Steelers at home,
Speaker 1: which is one of the best teams that they're going
Speaker 1: to face this season. They also get the Cleveland Browns
Speaker 1: at home, so those two teams to get to play
Speaker 1: them at home, as well as the Dallas Cowboys. They
Speaker 1: also play the hardest team on their entire schedule at home,
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. So those four teams, they get
Speaker 1: all of those at home. Who do they have to
Speaker 1: go on the road and face, Well, they go on
Speaker 1: the road. Obviously, those are the more difficult games that
Speaker 1: you're looking for. Where's Tom Brady gonna stumble, where's the
Speaker 1: team's gonna have proms? Well, obviously they have to play
Speaker 1: down at Miami. They tend to struggle sometimes when they
Speaker 1: go down to Miami. That's gonna happen every single year
Speaker 1: they play in Miami. They get to go on the
Speaker 1: road and they play the the Cincinnati Bengals. They also
Speaker 1: play the Washington Redskins, two of the bottom five teams
Speaker 1: sorry for your Skins in the NFL. Terms of the
Speaker 1: forecast for this upcoming season, they have three difficult games
Speaker 1: on the road, but they're manageable because you look at
Speaker 1: the I guess the overall quarterback h uarterback talent that
Speaker 1: they're going to face. The hardest of the three is
Speaker 1: going to be the Philadelphiagles, who are really looking strong
Speaker 1: this upcoming season. Then they go to Baltimore and play
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens, obviously Lamar Jackson. If you can get
Speaker 1: ahead a lead on Lamar Jackson is gonna be difficult
Speaker 1: for him to get throw the ball and get back
Speaker 1: in the game, right, So that could That's an interesting
Speaker 1: type of game, the way that's going to flow. And
Speaker 1: then you've got to Houston Texans, who we just talked about.
Speaker 1: They didn't play anybody last season. Going up against Tom
Speaker 1: Brady in this offense, we go, theyre going to Rob Groomkowski.
Speaker 1: But it's got a great coach and great quarterbacks, So
Speaker 1: I understand. You know, it's different any year that you're
Speaker 1: betting the over on a New England Patriots, like you
Speaker 1: tend to end up winning. But it's not like you're
Speaker 1: going to slam dunk be in the driver's seat like
Speaker 1: the whole way through. There's times when it's close towards
Speaker 1: the end of the season. Um, but the schedule definitely
Speaker 1: is very valuable for them to have so many difficult
Speaker 1: games at home and games that there should have pretty
Speaker 1: good success with on the road. Lauren, hang out for
Speaker 1: one second. I want to get to a few more
Speaker 1: of these, just three more of these, one of which
Speaker 1: has to do with teams who schedule eases up the
Speaker 1: most from last year based on efficiency to this year
Speaker 1: forecast strength of schedule based on wind totals. Also want
Speaker 1: to talk about the New York Giants for Giants fans
Speaker 1: out there. Warren Sharp at Sharp Football on Twitter right
Speaker 1: here on a numbers game at Visa. Support for today's
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Speaker 1: will thank me later. Down back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa
Speaker 1: in studios in Las Vegas. It is a numbers game
Speaker 1: right here where sports betting analytics live right here on
Speaker 1: Visa actionable sports betting information. And again honored to have
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp on the show once again our special offseason
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp Appearances. We'll do it again when the uh,
Speaker 1: the actual calendar, the schedule comes out where we know
Speaker 1: who's playing which team in which particular week, and then
Speaker 1: we can break it down through Warren's lens in terms
Speaker 1: of what teams start with har schedules, what teams start
Speaker 1: with these schedules, what teams play tough defenses or are
Speaker 1: easy past defenses will parse it out unit by unit
Speaker 1: at that point. Uh So, Warren, I'm throwing that out
Speaker 1: there for a later summertime appearance, if you would, because
Speaker 1: that would be fun to break down. Always good. I
Speaker 1: like that. Let's let's conclude what we have here though
Speaker 1: from you. Uh this one also from yesterday again CG
Speaker 1: Technology putting out our first season win totals of the
Speaker 1: football season here in Las Vegas. They did so on
Speaker 1: March thirty one. Let's let's start with this one here, um,
Speaker 1: which has to do with comparing actual strength schedule based
Speaker 1: on efficiency versus forecast strength of schedule based on wind totals.
Speaker 1: The teams who schedule eases up the most, right. So
Speaker 1: this is another kind of you know, I'm I'm a
Speaker 1: I'm a geek about trying to analyze things that other
Speaker 1: people aren't looking at. Number one, you can find a
Speaker 1: lot of edges that way, and number two, it's fun
Speaker 1: to talk about, fun to share the types of revelations.
Speaker 1: So one of the things that I definitely like to
Speaker 1: look at is how does the schedule look at this
Speaker 1: point heading into ten compared to what the teams faced
Speaker 1: last year? And we know what their actual strength of
Speaker 1: schedule was last year, so we're not using forecasted win
Speaker 1: totals here. We're looking at what are they actually play
Speaker 1: last year and then what are we forecasting for this
Speaker 1: upcoming year. And so the teams that who schedule, the
Speaker 1: top five teams to schedule eases up the most. Number
Speaker 1: one is the Cleveland Browns. Number two is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 1: Number three the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then you have the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles. So the Cleveland Browns, the Bengals,
Speaker 1: and the Steelers, those teams obviously are all in the
Speaker 1: a f C North. So their schedule in terms of
Speaker 1: a non divisional schedule, the two divisions that you play,
Speaker 1: because you always play your own division, you play a
Speaker 1: division within your conference. That's the total separate division, right,
Speaker 1: So in this case, instead of the a f C North,
Speaker 1: you're playing one of the other three divisions in your conference,
Speaker 1: and then you're playing a division in the other conference
Speaker 1: over the NFC to all of these teams will play
Speaker 1: those same opponents, and so that schedule, that non division
Speaker 1: schedule eases up tremendously for the a f C North
Speaker 1: compared to last year. If you look at the five
Speaker 1: teams with the most difficult scheduling increases, the team that
Speaker 1: to schedule is going to be much more difficult compared
Speaker 1: to what it was last season. The Houston Texans are
Speaker 1: the first. They obviously have the number one overall schedule.
Speaker 1: Their schedule gets much more difficult compared to what it
Speaker 1: was last year based upon final end the season Drinker schedule.
Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears, the Indianapolis called, the Minnesota Vikings, and
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. So once again you've got three
Speaker 1: teams from the NFC North who's opposing divisional schedule from
Speaker 1: other divisions is going to get substantially more difficult, which
Speaker 1: is why all three of those teams schedule gets much
Speaker 1: more difficult for the upcoming season compared to last year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so easiest Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Philly in terms of
Speaker 1: whose schedules is up the most. And his Warren just said, uh,
Speaker 1: the team's whose schedule gets the hardest compared to last
Speaker 1: year Houston. There they are Chicago, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and Green Bay.
Speaker 1: So this has been an off season for the Ages, Warren,
Speaker 1: for the New York Football Giants, And by that I mean,
Speaker 1: a horrific off season for the Ages. But you might
Speaker 1: have some good news for them here. Well, yeah, the
Speaker 1: good I mean the good news, uh, respectively, is that
Speaker 1: they have the fourth easiest schedule and they do face
Speaker 1: seven bottom ten opponents, which is the second most of
Speaker 1: any team in the league this upcoming year. The problem,
Speaker 1: the trouble for the New York Giants, of course, is
Speaker 1: the fact that while they have the fourth easiest schedule
Speaker 1: this year, last year they had the seventh schedule and
Speaker 1: they won only five games, so they still had a
Speaker 1: very bad record last season. They're still projected to win
Speaker 1: based on the pure wind totals the fourth fewest games
Speaker 1: this year is their win total set at six minus
Speaker 1: one ten um. And you know they also were with
Speaker 1: are without Odell Beckham um. In addition, if you look
Speaker 1: at the team who's playing opponents that are typically better
Speaker 1: than them, um, you're gonna see, well, maybe we're trailing
Speaker 1: in the second half. And when Eli last year was
Speaker 1: trailing in the second half, his success rate on passes
Speaker 1: was thirty one out of thirty four qualifying quarterbacks. The
Speaker 1: only three quarterbacks that were worse than him. We're all rookies.
Speaker 1: Josh Rose and Josh Allen and Sam Donald. The other
Speaker 1: thing that I will say that I haven't put up
Speaker 1: on Twitter yet but I've been working on this morning
Speaker 1: is a depiction looking at games that a team will
Speaker 1: face this upcoming season, where they are better than their
Speaker 1: opponent based upon just the pure forecasted wind total. They're
Speaker 1: forecasted to be a stronger team, not looking at power rankings,
Speaker 1: look at what the oddsmakers put out here is stronger team,
Speaker 1: and then comparing that to last year based upon what
Speaker 1: the spreads were in the actual games. What was the
Speaker 1: spread on these games, and how many games were they
Speaker 1: lined as a better team than their opponent. Obviously, that
Speaker 1: means you could still be an underdog, but if you're
Speaker 1: one point underdog on the road, you're technically better than
Speaker 1: that other team because you're on the road, and so
Speaker 1: you're obviously the superior team at one point underdog. So
Speaker 1: I'm backing all that in and what we find there
Speaker 1: is that the New York Giants last year was forecast
Speaker 1: to be better than their opponent in just two games.
Speaker 1: This year better than their opponent in just two games.
Speaker 1: So the only good part is they play an easier schedule,
Speaker 1: But the bad part is they play the easy schedule
Speaker 1: last year and the only fake two teams that's their
Speaker 1: forecasts to be better than. So there's that basically New
Speaker 1: York Giants fans, that's not fun. As again one of
Speaker 1: the more strange offseasons, and strange is being kind one
Speaker 1: of the most perplexing off seasons you will ever find.
Speaker 1: With the NFL Draft now later this month, can finally
Speaker 1: say that later this month the NFL Draft coming. Last
Speaker 1: one here, Warren. I guess we've kind of covered this
Speaker 1: one in different ways, but the last one here is
Speaker 1: two teams that face just one top five opponent, two
Speaker 1: teams that face four top five opponents last one here.
Speaker 1: So the Philadelphia Eagles in the New England Patriots are
Speaker 1: both fortunate in that. Like you can, the way I
Speaker 1: look at these things is you look at each game individually,
Speaker 1: and you can find the teams that play the top
Speaker 1: five or top ten teams, the teams that are supposed
Speaker 1: to be the best in the NFL this season, and
Speaker 1: teams that are supposed to be the worst. And that's
Speaker 1: one of the things the strength of schedule that's useful.
Speaker 1: As you probably know, Gil, it's not about evaluating all
Speaker 1: this team is eleventh versus seventeenth, and so, oh my god,
Speaker 1: you know this team's got much easier schedule. No, it's
Speaker 1: looking at the extremes. Look at the extremes of the schedule.
Speaker 1: Which are the teams that have the five easiest schedules,
Speaker 1: What are the teams that have the five most difficult schedules,
Speaker 1: And which are the best, five, best or worst teams
Speaker 1: based upon these wind totals, and those are the ones
Speaker 1: that we should feel pretty confident about. The Patriots and
Speaker 1: the Eagles both face just one top five team this year,
Speaker 1: but they get to play five games against bottom five opponents,
Speaker 1: the worst of the worst of the NFL. But there
Speaker 1: are five games that they should win. Um, then you
Speaker 1: go to the team teams that face strong opponents, strong
Speaker 1: top five opponents. There's two teams to play four of
Speaker 1: those top five opponents, and they play none of the
Speaker 1: worst teams, none of the bottom five opponents. Those two
Speaker 1: teams are the Texans and the Broncos. So Patriots and
Speaker 1: Eagles justifiably and easy scheduled, large part made much easier
Speaker 1: by the fact play very few top teams, a lot
Speaker 1: of bottom teams, and the Texans the Broncos, the two
Speaker 1: most difficult schedules in the NFL play some of the
Speaker 1: most difficult opponents, very two easy opponents, very many very
Speaker 1: difficult opponents. And the interesting court here is that looking
Speaker 1: back at I went back and looked at those schedules,
Speaker 1: there was not a single team at this point in
Speaker 1: the season that had the same type of benefit where
Speaker 1: they play a lot of easy teams at the top
Speaker 1: and no hard teams, or a lot of hard teams
Speaker 1: and no easy team. There wasn't a team that fell
Speaker 1: into those categories last year, and here this season we
Speaker 1: got two teams on the easy end and two teams
Speaker 1: on the hard end. All of this can be seen
Speaker 1: on Warren's Twitter at sharp Football. Just an absolutely great follow.
Speaker 1: By the way, again, if you want to watch the
Speaker 1: if you want to look at the Seawan Taylor montage
Speaker 1: that I talked about yesterday on the what would have
Speaker 1: been Sean Taylor's thirty six birthday, you can check that
Speaker 1: out of chart Football as well. But all those stats
Speaker 1: that we talked about not only at chart Football, they're
Speaker 1: also at Shart football stats dot com. Warren, we'll talk
Speaker 1: to you again this summer again when the schedule comes
Speaker 1: out week one, week two, week three, and that in
Speaker 1: that fashion. Uh. In the meantime, crack and I miss
Speaker 1: you a lot on Thursdays. Are you gonna have a
Speaker 1: Pro Football guide this year? Like? Do you have time
Speaker 1: to do a preview guide anymore? I? I am. That's
Speaker 1: the current plan. I'm looking forward to doing that, really excited.
Speaker 1: Actually left my engineering job officially, so I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: able to pursue some of these other things. Uh three
Speaker 1: up a little bit more time. So the guide is on.
Speaker 1: I'm working on it as we speaking. That tends tends
Speaker 1: to come out right at the very end of June,
Speaker 1: right at the very end of June. We look forward
Speaker 1: to it. Warren Sharp's Pro Football Preview Guide Warren, thank
Speaker 1: you man, appreciate it and congratulations on all. Thanks Warren Sharp,
Speaker 1: best in the biz, football analytics. His future Jeff to say,
Speaker 1: the least, as bright as could be.