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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leye.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Your

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Speaker 1: main event in Washington today the Acting Director of National

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Speaker 1: Intelligence Joseph McGuire testifying before the House Intelligence Committee. It

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Speaker 1: will begin at nine eastern this morning. Marty Schenka drops

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Speaker 1: by Bloomberg's very own one of our finest Marty front

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Speaker 1: and center the whistleblower complaint. Just what can the Acting

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Speaker 1: Director of National Intelligence actually tell us today? Well, he

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Speaker 1: can put some more context on the uh partial transcript

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Speaker 1: that came out one of the yesterday. One of the

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Speaker 1: clear issues is that this is just one incident in

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Speaker 1: a in a series of anecdotes that prompted the whistle

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Speaker 1: blows report in the first place. So we are going

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Speaker 1: to get more than that phone call and what's in

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Speaker 1: that we are getting reporting, and there's been a lot

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Speaker 1: of narrative that it is far worse than what was

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Speaker 1: released yesterday. If we got any idea of whether this

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Speaker 1: was a series of coals, whether involved more than one person?

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Speaker 1: How does this work? Marcy? What do we nice? I find? Well?

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Speaker 1: That is really why the what the whistleblower has to

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Speaker 1: say is so important, because there there's there are indications

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Speaker 1: that this was the sequence of events. There's more than

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Speaker 1: one call. There's Rudy Juliani's involvement in Ukrainian affairs, and

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Speaker 1: whether or not this is a connect the dots moment

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Speaker 1: where you can actually see a pattern. And one key

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Speaker 1: element is the motivation for withholding that aid from you Crane.

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Speaker 1: If we can get to that, it could provide even

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Speaker 1: a worst narrative for the White House. Is part of

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Speaker 1: the story here today or the mystery that we're gonna see?

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Speaker 1: It feels like Watergate that day John Dene showed up

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Speaker 1: and nobody knew what was gonna happen, including me. I

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Speaker 1: had the luxury of watching that live. Uh, Marty, is

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Speaker 1: this gonna involve other nations? You talk about its other

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Speaker 1: phone calls, etcetera, etcetera. But is a whistleblower looking at

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Speaker 1: just Ukraine or is it other nations as well? We

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Speaker 1: don't know. We don't know, We just do not know,

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Speaker 1: But it is quite possible. Remember, famously the conversations that

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump had with Vladimir Putin that we never got

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Speaker 1: to read out from. So they that might be part

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Speaker 1: of this, but we just does he have the legal

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Speaker 1: counsel the President Clinton or President Nixon had. It's been

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Speaker 1: such an ad hoc administration. You mean Donald Trump? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Are there three lawyers in the White House on the

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Speaker 1: public dole helping him? Or does he have a private

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Speaker 1: council or is he his own counsel? I think, like

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Speaker 1: with everything else, Donald Trumps his own counsel. There's reporting

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Speaker 1: this morning that a number of people in the White

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Speaker 1: House were very opposed to releasing this partial transcript, recognizing

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Speaker 1: that it could be it could backbar and the president.

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Speaker 1: So but Donald Trump is just plowing your head. He's releasing,

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Speaker 1: he's declassifying the whistleblower account. He's going, he says, he's

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Speaker 1: going to make all his conversations available. And look, I

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Speaker 1: think Donald Trump actually does believe he did nothing wrong,

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Speaker 1: and that fundamentally is what his problem is. That was

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Speaker 1: the line that a lot of people were pushing yesterday.

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Speaker 1: I believe one line I heard Marty was that we

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Speaker 1: were a quit short of a pro quote and There

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Speaker 1: was certainly not an explicit quit pro quote within that

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Speaker 1: readoubt of that call, but for many people it was implicit.

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Speaker 1: Now is it that interpretation enough to go forward with

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Speaker 1: an impeachment? Well, I I think the Democrats are going

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Speaker 1: to go forward with impeachment on the alone request for

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Speaker 1: a favor from the Ukrainian president. The question really becomes

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Speaker 1: can he be convicted and removed from office? And I

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Speaker 1: think the chances of that are quite remote. Marty. Always

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Speaker 1: great to see Marty Schenka there joining us ahead of

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Speaker 1: this key address. A little bit later today, facing down Congress,

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Speaker 1: the acting tom Director of National Intelligence Joseph McGuire, Stephen,

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Speaker 1: why do you when this is a city group, let's

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Speaker 1: to talk about John, why don't you kick it off?

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Speaker 1: As we talked to their astralogist, dovetailing economics into what

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Speaker 1: we see in corporate Steve. The lineup that got repeated

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Speaker 1: again and again yesterday was trade the policy, not the politics.

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Speaker 1: And the problem with this story is that we don't

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Speaker 1: know what the politics ultimately means for policy, so just

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Speaker 1: hands off and carry on as normal? Is that the

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Speaker 1: approach from you? Well, let's just imagine you know, you

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Speaker 1: own a piece of the world's greatest companies. Now, just

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Speaker 1: because you have liquidity in the stock market doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: you should sell out of everything and then think that

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Speaker 1: you can appropriately buy in. It just doesn't make a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense, you know, to be trading uh this.

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Speaker 1: And I think what we hear right now, which which

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Speaker 1: I find most interesting, is that everyone is jumping ahead

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Speaker 1: to the end of twenty So many conversations around the

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Speaker 1: world are but that could be bad. And what it

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Speaker 1: tells you is that there's a lot of concern and

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Speaker 1: worry in the marketplace, that there's this confirmation bias that

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Speaker 1: ah ha, now I have uh the election of And

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Speaker 1: in the meantime, you know the fact that markets, you know,

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Speaker 1: are usually very, very focused on six month ahead fundamentals.

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Speaker 1: That is, if nothing in the world of the economy

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Speaker 1: could actually sway the market, I think it would be

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Speaker 1: a mistake, right. I think that you will see that

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Speaker 1: the economic outcomes you know of the next six months,

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Speaker 1: you know, will bear right on asset prices just like normal.

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Speaker 1: The line that I picked up from your reading and

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Speaker 1: your writing, it really jumped out of me and made

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Speaker 1: me laugh. Markets feel like they're gripped by a manly

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Speaker 1: redoom or no doom. Frivously flipping between extreme views, swiftly

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Speaker 1: changing trade, retoric and monety policy changes contribute to the disorder.

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Speaker 1: That disorder seems to be permeating right the way through

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Speaker 1: the treasury market, day after day after day. It's one

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Speaker 1: narrative to the next and no real consistency. What do

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Speaker 1: you make of that, Steve, what do you take away

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Speaker 1: from that? So? Um perspective is a bit lacking. You know,

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Speaker 1: I'll be fair here in the sense that I don't

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Speaker 1: think our stock market has had any sort of mass exaggeration, right.

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Speaker 1: We have not had a you know, robins. You know,

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Speaker 1: this has been a very very gentle summer in terms

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Speaker 1: of the absolute correction. You know, we have fortunately, you know,

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Speaker 1: very diversified boad stock market that that manages, you know,

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Speaker 1: to to do that. Um, you know. But but the situation,

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Speaker 1: like you just said, in the bond market, the bond

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Speaker 1: market needs some bad news and suddenly because okay, we

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Speaker 1: have some weaker data, but it's not as bad as expected,

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Speaker 1: and suddenly this index or that index looks better, and

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Speaker 1: people just say the narrative has all changed. The recession

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Speaker 1: is off, the economy is recovering and the story can

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Speaker 1: almost change, you know, like with the daily news cycle.

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Speaker 1: You know, we have a reality here, h and that

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Speaker 1: is that we have a manufacturing slump that's going to

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Speaker 1: affect earnings. We have a very low rate outlook, and

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Speaker 1: we have an easing fed Is that enough? Is that

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Speaker 1: enough to sit here and think it's enough? Steve? The

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Speaker 1: one thing I worry about with stuff like this is

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Speaker 1: that we wake up every morning and we're always obsessed

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Speaker 1: with the shark closest to the boat, And at the moment,

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Speaker 1: there's several you wake up, what's happening in Washington, what's

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Speaker 1: the latest on trade? And you kind of skim over

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Speaker 1: the latest economic data in Germany dreadful, South Korea horrible,

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Speaker 1: And there's an annex season coming up that you refer

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Speaker 1: to that could not be pretty at all, might be

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Speaker 1: pretty ugly. It might be the worst quarter that we've

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Speaker 1: had this year based on what we're seeing around the

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Speaker 1: world for the big multinationals. I think so, again, this

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Speaker 1: will not be the quarter where we suddenly wake up

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Speaker 1: and you know, the analysts have overestimated all of the

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Speaker 1: EPs for the current quarter. That's not gonna happen here.

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Speaker 1: Um but we could be down a bit from where

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Speaker 1: we were a year ago. I think the main thing

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Speaker 1: that investors need to do is look ahead and see,

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Speaker 1: you know, have we broken this growth regime entirely? And

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Speaker 1: I think that the things that would drive an American

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Speaker 1: economic downturn, you know this is these are still man

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Speaker 1: main things. This is either monetary policy, which was running

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Speaker 1: off course last year, which is being corrected, and trade policy.

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Speaker 1: And again, if the US was fighting a multifront trade

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Speaker 1: war across the world at an otherwise vulnerable time, this

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Speaker 1: would be a lot worse. We think that basically that

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Speaker 1: um the relatively healthy consumer fundamentals record, lodet burns, eight

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Speaker 1: and a half percent savings rate. What is this oil

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Speaker 1: place shock? We talked about a four month high in oil.

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Speaker 1: We didn't have recession four months ago, so that this

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Speaker 1: can basically outlast this may drink direction, Steve, why do

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Speaker 1: you think so much? Greatly greatly appreciate it there with

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Speaker 1: an update, it's really a first look almost into October

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Speaker 1: and the earnings mystery that's out there, John, I just

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Speaker 1: think it's time. I need a variety of class types

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Speaker 1: including cycling, running, boot camp, yoga, outdoor and more. I

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Speaker 1: have no idea what you're talking about. I mean, did

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Speaker 1: you get your shares in Peloton? All right? Is that

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Speaker 1: what we're talking? Yeah, you usually get you know, I

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Speaker 1: can see I can see you on Peloton. Yeah. I

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Speaker 1: mean do you do you have to get the membership

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Speaker 1: to get the bike? What happens with the music? What's

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Speaker 1: the lightst with that? I have no idea. The joy

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Speaker 1: of Leslie benjam Murray of chadow House is on the

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Speaker 1: front of a research piece. It goes, this will go

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Speaker 1: on forever, She joins us now with you know, were

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Speaker 1: so well from Bloomberg Surveillance, head of the US and

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Speaker 1: America's program, Leslie Vinjerbury on Washington and this new impeachment

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Speaker 1: and process. Leslie, I'm of course jesting it will go

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Speaker 1: on forever. At some point it will end. How would

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Speaker 1: you presume, now, knowing that the Senate is not going

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Speaker 1: to let this move on, how do we actually extricate

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Speaker 1: ourselves from this process? Well, first of all, we don't

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Speaker 1: know what's going to happen, and I would argue that

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Speaker 1: you know, this will be a very dynamic process. And

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Speaker 1: by dynamic, I mean I think a lot of things

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Speaker 1: are going to change we've been saying for the last

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Speaker 1: several months or more than a year of various investigations,

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Speaker 1: that American's attitudes are not changing, that people are digging

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Speaker 1: in their heels. I don't think we're going to see

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Speaker 1: the same thing with this and with the teachment hearings.

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Speaker 1: I think this is categorically different and that we're going

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Speaker 1: to see people's attitudes change. Does the president of legal council.

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Speaker 1: I've been thunderstruck at the you know, the complete coverage

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Speaker 1: out of the Washington Post, in New York Times, bloom News,

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Speaker 1: everybody else. There's no article about his legal team. Is

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Speaker 1: there a legal team? You know, it's I think it's

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Speaker 1: unclear exactly who he's taking advice from. He's clearly taking

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Speaker 1: advice from Giuliani and various other people, part of which

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Speaker 1: is seeming to get him into a lot of trouble um.

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Speaker 1: But it's you know, even the fact that that transcript

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Speaker 1: was released in the way that it was suggests that

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Speaker 1: the level of oversight caution is not what one one

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Speaker 1: might anticipate that it would be. Either that or this

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Speaker 1: is a president who seemed to think that that that

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Speaker 1: transcript suggested nothing that was beyond the pale, how speaking,

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Speaker 1: anti Pelosi is emphasized that this is somewhat different. This

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Speaker 1: is easier to understand. Focus on the sequencing. The aid

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Speaker 1: was with how than this call took place? Will this

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Speaker 1: continue to be easy to understand? Or we're about to

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Speaker 1: see this getting increasingly complex and let's do The reason

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Speaker 1: I ask is because how this plays out in the

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Speaker 1: court of public opinion is ultimately what matters. And I

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Speaker 1: just wonder if it gets increasingly complex and it gets

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Speaker 1: more diff coote to understand whether the court of public

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Speaker 1: opinion would actually come with the Democrats through this effort.

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Speaker 1: I you know, well, first of all, that you know,

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Speaker 1: we we expect that the whistleblowers report may well be

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Speaker 1: released to the public on Thursday or Friday. That might

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Speaker 1: be fairly complex, but the basic storyline is not complicated. Uh,

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Speaker 1: the details will be complex, but I think that there

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Speaker 1: will be a lot of effort put into communicating this

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Speaker 1: very clearly um to the American public, not only through

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Speaker 1: the hearings, but by journalists, by analysts, by you know,

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Speaker 1: the broader public debate. I think, well, zero in on

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Speaker 1: a couple of very clear things, and the and the

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Speaker 1: most important one I think will be that a that

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Speaker 1: the American president is alleged to have put pressure to

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Speaker 1: have colluded with a leader of a foreign government to

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Speaker 1: investigate one of the leading candidates in the next presidential elections.

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Speaker 1: That's a pretty clear storyline. If you then add to

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Speaker 1: that the threat to withhold military assistance that was appropriated

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Speaker 1: specifically to help Ukraine, it doesn't again, two very clear

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Speaker 1: storylines that I don't think people will struggle to understand.

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Speaker 1: Let's see what does it due to the rest of policy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, let's assume we come out of the nine

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Speaker 1: o'clock hearing today, folks again on Bloomberg Radio, you'll hear

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Speaker 1: that with Mr McGuire. Okay, we come out of this,

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Speaker 1: we move on to the unknown. How does anybody focus

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Speaker 1: on just to suggest a Chinese discussion in early October? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, this is a presidency that has been

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Speaker 1: marked by extreme distraction by the various things going on

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Speaker 1: in the White House. This is I would argue, games changing.

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Speaker 1: It takes it to a new level, and it will

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Speaker 1: undoubtedly distract the president and his team, but that this

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Speaker 1: is a team that's been distracted for a very long time.

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Speaker 1: But you know, Tom, it might be the case that

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Speaker 1: this also drives the President to double down on a

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Speaker 1: number of his key form policy initiatives in order to

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Speaker 1: move the debate in the focus somewhere else. Leslie, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Leslie with chadow Mouse today. A briefing

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Speaker 1: here on the story of Washington. Cugo. It's with us

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Speaker 1: Hugo Rodgers of del Tech, and we want to dive

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Speaker 1: into the markets here, but I've got to take on

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Speaker 1: twenty seconds and talk about the archipelago that moves northwest

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Speaker 1: of Turks and Caicos right up bus stressed against Florida,

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Speaker 1: and it is the Bahamas. It is a sprawl of islands.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's like the Philippines, It's like Indonesia's just

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Speaker 1: the Bahamas. And we focus on Nassau and that you're

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Speaker 1: living there. Give us an update on how the Bahamas

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Speaker 1: will recover from this horrific storm. Yes, well, thank you, Tommy.

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Speaker 1: It has been a horrific storm, particularly for the northern

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Speaker 1: islands of Great Um, Grand Bahama and and Avoca Um

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Speaker 1: and the answers is going to take time, effort, money,

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Speaker 1: Um and Um and just like a civics of duty

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Speaker 1: and and and since I'm coming together to deliver some

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Speaker 1: kind of recovery because those places have been properly devastating.

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Speaker 1: Will take a sacrifice? Is it a sacrifice of a nation?

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Speaker 1: Explain how the colonial heritage dovetails into the current nationhood

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Speaker 1: of the Bahamas as a as an excellent question, um,

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Speaker 1: and it's a long cultural history. I noticed with interest

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Speaker 1: that the Royal Navy from from the UK were there

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Speaker 1: pretty quickly. They've got a supply vessel um in the

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Speaker 1: Caribbean specifically for the disaster relief, and they were there

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Speaker 1: within a few days. To the UK connection is there, Um.

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Speaker 1: The US connection is now very very strong, and there

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Speaker 1: were big relief efforts within a short period of time. Um.

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Speaker 1: And I think the Bahamas very much appreciates that kind

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Speaker 1: of input. Earlier to the Bahamas, certainly with Bloomberg surveillance

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg and the economy. Going back to Sir John Templeton,

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Speaker 1: and of course or delt is doing as well. You

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Speaker 1: have an advantage John, in February. It's a particular advantage,

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Speaker 1: particularly when you and I come live from the Bahamas

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Speaker 1: in February, are planning that I'm planning on the calendar,

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Speaker 1: but you have an advantage of distance from the distance

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Speaker 1: of the Bahamas to investing. Is it just simply about

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Speaker 1: American large care companies or can the story change? No,

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's very much a sort of global can

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Speaker 1: be a global center. It's a pivots nicely between um

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Speaker 1: UH the ex colonial piece from from Europe and and

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Speaker 1: and the UK, and then it's also got a pivot

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Speaker 1: to Dell Tech history. Um IS is based in US investors,

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Speaker 1: but with lots of interest in Latin American so on.

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Speaker 1: So there's a nice connection between um the US and

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Speaker 1: Latin America through the Bahamas. So it's really an international hub.

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Speaker 1: And look at the data coming out of Lumberg, looking

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Speaker 1: at the look at the data coming out of of

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Speaker 1: multiple sources that the world is getting smaller due to

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Speaker 1: information technology and um we have full access. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: your Templeton has been in the Bahamas for a very

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Speaker 1: long time running investment operations and and using using that harbor.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to do to you what many people do

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Speaker 1: to me, UM And when you have an accident like this,

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Speaker 1: they say, what is happening with Brexit? And I got

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Speaker 1: some notes from our producer on you you go, and

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Speaker 1: the notes say I can talk hours on Brexit, so

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Speaker 1: I'm pleased you can, because I struggled to what on

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Speaker 1: earth is happening back out the talking for hours on

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Speaker 1: Brexit is is that obviously the main machinations that are

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Speaker 1: going on right now. If you ask me for what

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Speaker 1: is the conclusion on Brexit, my aunswer will be very short,

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Speaker 1: which is, I don't know. The answer to that question

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Speaker 1: is what happens in a general election? And everything is

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Speaker 1: fragmenting so aggressively even as we speak that the you know,

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Speaker 1: the look at the restaurant going on in the House

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Speaker 1: of Parliament right now. The people's positions are being polarized

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Speaker 1: so aggressively. The outcome for from a general election is

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Speaker 1: very hard to say right now. Clever sophologists are struggling

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Speaker 1: to read how the how the vote breaks down between

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Speaker 1: the Brexit party, between the Conservatives, the lib Dems and Labor.

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Speaker 1: And unless you have that outcome, you can't have clarity

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Speaker 1: on the outcome. It's one of those stories that has

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Speaker 1: become so complex that people are just choosing to ignore it.

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Speaker 1: And when I say people, I mean market participants. Yes.

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Speaker 1: In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, it was a

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Speaker 1: story for the world, then for about five minutes a

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Speaker 1: story for just Europe, and then increasingly so a story

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Speaker 1: just for the UK. Is that going to change anytime? Well,

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Speaker 1: actually I'm going to disagree with you there. But because

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Speaker 1: you've you've got about one point five million the BBC,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I can continue this discussion. The

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Speaker 1: answer is that that the the Punch and Judy politics

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Speaker 1: in Parliament right now has suddenly become fascinating for entertainment purposes.

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Speaker 1: Totally agree with the outcomes, but for but for the markets.

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Speaker 1: It was a global story for for a moment in time.

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Speaker 1: Certainly not anymore. I think that's very true. Um So

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Speaker 1: people are looking at UK assets and saying they're cheap

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Speaker 1: on an historical basis. Study is cheap on a historical basis.

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Speaker 1: You're wanting to make an investment, but you can't make

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Speaker 1: a conviction investment until you have defined what the outcome

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Speaker 1: of the general. Can I give us an American spin? Please? Okay,

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Speaker 1: watch The Crown. Okay, I'm watching The Crown. The woman

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Speaker 1: that played Margaret was it was great. Anthony Eden. He

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Speaker 1: went down on one topic, the Suez Canal, and some

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Speaker 1: people recently, just in the last number of days have

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Speaker 1: gone back to Chamberlain and Germany and Hitler. Is Johnson

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Speaker 1: going to be an Anthony Eden? Um? No, he strikes

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Speaker 1: me as as a somewhat different character. But but in

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Speaker 1: terms of the intractable problem that is Brexit, he is.

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Speaker 1: His bed is so made. He is in that camp.

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Speaker 1: He was as much the architect or the catalyst to

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Speaker 1: have brexitst to to have the vote go the way

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Speaker 1: that it did. That he's he's he's besting big on

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Speaker 1: that outcome. He he can't change his bet, so he

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Speaker 1: keeps on doubling down and and the result will be

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Speaker 1: a general election. I'm fairly sure of that, and it

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Speaker 1: will be after the thirty one when the UK has

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Speaker 1: not left him also fairly certain of that. But does

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Speaker 1: he then win the majority in Parliament? I don't think so,

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Speaker 1: but it's very likely that he could still be in

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Speaker 1: charge of the largest party. Fear or focus in the

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Speaker 1: studio like this. I spent to someone just yesterday who

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Speaker 1: was in the room two days ago when try Mr

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Speaker 1: Boris Johnson delivered that speech, and that individual said to me,

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Speaker 1: john it was remarkable how Calmy was and then just

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Speaker 1: turned on the charm. It was always like he just

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Speaker 1: expected this outcome and this is where they were heading

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Speaker 1: that he wants to pit the masses against the institutions. Ultimately,

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Speaker 1: this is the whole objective to go to the electorate

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Speaker 1: with and say everyone's against you. I will help you

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Speaker 1: deliver this. It's not It's not a stupid strategy, is it?

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Speaker 1: Can I how can I bring some America can listen

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Speaker 1: to this conversation. This is the BBC. Jeremy Northam played

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Speaker 1: Anthony Eden in The Crown. He was like lights out,

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Speaker 1: he blew me away, He got the you know, the

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Speaker 1: heart attack in the coron area of Anthony Eden and

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Speaker 1: all that politics. And then there's Pip Torrens who was

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Speaker 1: in The Crown advising the Queen, and he's also in

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Speaker 1: Paul Dark as well. Our American synthesis of you guys

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Speaker 1: is through these master people shows. It's Paul Dark and

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Speaker 1: the Crown and the rest of the blown. What do

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Speaker 1: we get wrong when we see the United Kingdom to

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Speaker 1: the prism of your soap opera class Wolfeather, you see

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Speaker 1: I'm asking you, I mean down and all of it.

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Speaker 1: What do we get wrong about you guys? When we

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Speaker 1: look at these manufacturers I think again and again and

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Speaker 1: again the number one issue for me, and Hugo can

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Speaker 1: weigh in with his own interpretation on this. London is

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Speaker 1: not the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom is not London,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's why many people missed the Brexit

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Speaker 1: movement if they didn't get out of the nation's capital.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, what you see guilty of what

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Speaker 1: you see in Parliament is not representative of the country either. Well, again,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna respectfully disagree on is that as strong as

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Speaker 1: I'll be that some but but Parliament is more representative

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Speaker 1: of the country. And actually, obviously there was a general

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Speaker 1: election after the Brexit votes. I think Parliament is representative

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Speaker 1: of the divides that exists. So let me finesse it

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Speaker 1: just a little bit further. The reason I've said this

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Speaker 1: is that when it went to a vote for the referendum,

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Speaker 1: the majority said leave, it did the overwhelming majority of

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Speaker 1: Parliament is not behind that. And when I say they're

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Speaker 1: not representative of the country, I mean on that single issue,

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Speaker 1: and they've proven again and again and again that they're not.

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Speaker 1: I would say that's that's fair analysis. Um, but I

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Speaker 1: and I would absolutely agree with your analysis. That London

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Speaker 1: is not the rest of the UK if you go

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Speaker 1: out into the Shires or any regions, but rural communities

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Speaker 1: in particular. So the connurbations all tended to vote to remain,

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Speaker 1: but all the rural constituencies voted voted out. So there

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Speaker 1: is this this divide. What do we miss that that

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Speaker 1: that cosmopolitan versus rural divide? What what do we miss?

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Speaker 1: We we the fair play and the and the the

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Speaker 1: cliches if you like about fair play, the cliches about

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Speaker 1: politeness and institutional reverence and so on, those things I

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Speaker 1: think have changed materially. So there's almost this sort of

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Speaker 1: revolutionary atmosphere in the Shires. This will be on in

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Speaker 1: our podcast Fox Whatever This Ale Worldwide today with Hugo.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. There's really really interesting on the Bahamas and

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Speaker 1: the Shires too. I am from the Shires, warwick Shire.

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Speaker 1: Which shire is your Hartfordshire? Interesting? There we go, Hugo

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Speaker 1: Rutger's credit. See you. Tom's got no idea what's going on?

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Speaker 1: You're gonna digress to China right now? We can do

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Speaker 1: that with Joyce Chang. She's with JP Morgan running all

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Speaker 1: of research. Joyce, there is the ubiquitous in nineteen eleven

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Speaker 1: Chinese Imperial Government railroad bonds that JP Morgan helped underwrite.

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Speaker 1: It was an important moment in Chinese history. It led

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Speaker 1: to all sorts of turmoil. But it goes to the

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Speaker 1: depth of JP. Morgan perspective on China, and that depth

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Speaker 1: involves an economic slowdown right now six and you would

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Speaker 1: suggest a vector that's even under five percent. Can you

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Speaker 1: explain to me the political outcome of a five point

429
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: four or five point one or dare I say four

430
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 1: point nine percent Chinese economic growth? Well over the next decade,

431
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: China's growth is going to four and a half percent,

432
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 1: but we're going to see a sub six percent next year.

433
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,199
Speaker 1: We have high point eight percent in our forecast, and

434
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: all eyes are on the US China talks on trade. Um.

435
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: We've taken about point four percent off of China's growth

436
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: this year just with the tariff measures that have been

437
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: put into place, and you know this has knock on

438
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: effects globally. Every one percent decline in China's growth is

439
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: about point four percent off of global growth, and that

440
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 1: has ramifications for Europe, which is much more trade reliant

441
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: than some other parts of the world, and also for Asia,

442
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 1: where you still have trade out of Asia. So this

443
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: is something that you know, we're going to be watching

444
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: over the longer term, not just with every iteration of

445
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 1: the trade discussions, but as a longer term factor as

446
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: we look at the growth forecast and the refect session

447
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: risk in the global economy. Joyce, how does that shape

448
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: the character of the policy response in China? What are

449
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: you looking for in the counting twolve months. Well, I mean,

450
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 1: we've seen triple our cuts from China's Central Bank, and

451
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: I think more of that will be forthcoming. But we've

452
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 1: also seen is that they've gravitated to trying to use

453
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: um tax cuts to see if they can stimulate consumption.

454
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: So I think that you're going to see more of

455
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 1: a response um. You know, on the fiscal side, you're

456
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: going to see them you're I think, rely less on

457
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: increasing the debt. The debt has been a problem in China.

458
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: You've got a debt ratio in the high of GDP

459
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: and you already have a fairly high fiscal deficit um

460
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: as well when you look at the local government financing vehicles.

461
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: So I think you're the income tax cuts that we've

462
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: seen things like perhaps you're reducing the size of the

463
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 1: social security contribution, but ways in which they can actually

464
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: use more of these measures to try to stimulate the

465
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: economy through the road scare of fifteen sixteen. Joyce, you

466
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,919
Speaker 1: will know better than most the response was rather different.

467
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: It was about pumping credit back into the system and

468
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: doing it quite aggressively. Is there a trigger point that

469
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 1: you have in mind, but it's not sub six? What

470
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: is it that moves China away from this targeted gradual

471
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: policy response to the slow down their experiencing. Well, there

472
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: are constraints in China. The size of the fiscal deficit,

473
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: if you look at this consolidated is north of eleven

474
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: percent of GDP and this is why, you know, creating

475
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: war debt really isn't an option for them, And there

476
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 1: had been focused on deleveraging um you and basically keeping

477
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 1: that debt ratio stable and trying to bring it down

478
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: gradually over time. So China, like many central banks, does

479
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: not have as many tools as had at the time

480
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: of the global financial crisis. I mean a decade ago,

481
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: China stimulus was north the seven percent of GDP UM

482
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 1: and there's just not the scope to provide that type

483
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 1: of stimulus anymore. With great respect Joyce, I'm going to

484
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 1: butcher the pronunciation, but to get away from Shanghai, Beijing

485
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 1: and Hong Kong and the cursory analysis someone like me

486
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 1: makes if I go inland to change or Man begin

487
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 1: his communist experiment. There's a city with a lot of

488
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: foreign direct investment. It's something nobody talks about. What does

489
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: all this mean for a city that's off our radar.

490
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 1: I mean, if we get five point two g d P,

491
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: if we get President Trump firm and his trade war,

492
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: what's it meaning to change Shaw? Well, I think that

493
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: you are seeing a slowdown that's going to hit those

494
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: cities more because you've had over capacity in many of

495
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: those cities. Um. I think one thing that everybody's looking

496
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,719
Speaker 1: very closely at is the property market because that has

497
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 1: actually held in pretty well. But I think that you're

498
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: gonna need to see more of a of an impact

499
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 1: deal going forward. But I think China is very committed

500
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: to doing this gradually. They still have a couple of

501
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: fiscal measures, um, you know that they can put into

502
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 1: place right now, But the property market is going to

503
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 1: be one gauge of how this is playing out across

504
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: some of the smaller um smaller the medium size that

505
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: these Joyce, thank you for the appreciate running running a

506
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: huge platform for Mr Diamond at GP Morgan this morning,

507
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: White House reporter Justin sand because he goes in and

508
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: listens to the testimony, justin, what will you be listening

509
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: for in the opening comments from Republican and Democratic leadership?

510
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: I think what we want to hear from Republicans is

511
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: how seriously they're taking this complaint versus uh, just attempting

512
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: to protect the president. If we start to see a

513
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: jail break on that side, it could spell some serious

514
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: trouble for Republicans and for Democrats. I think we're gonna

515
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: be looking for if there's information that they haven't publicly

516
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: released yet but are trying to send a sort of

517
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: AsSalt into their uh either questions or opening statements here,

518
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,719
Speaker 1: So justin, you know, Tom and I discussing, you know,

519
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 1: how aggressive do you you know? Will the Republicans be

520
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: against uh the acting DNA. What is your thoughts here?

521
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: How do you think the Democrats are gonna play I mean,

522
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: I'm sorry the Republicans are going to play this today? Yeah,

523
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: I mean I think Republicans are going to try to

524
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 1: run some interference for the present by saying that they

525
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: don't agree with his characterization of of sort of how

526
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: urgent this this matter is and the way in which

527
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: he handled it. At the same time, this of course

528
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: as a somebody who was picked by President Trump and

529
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 1: sort of an established intelligence official who has a long

530
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: career in history in Washington, and so I expect more

531
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: posturing sort of towards Democrats, uh, charges that they're just

532
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 1: barreling towards impeachment without knowing the facts, than a sort

533
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: of attack on the acting DNA. Let's talk justin from

534
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 1: the White House perspective. They're gonna line up against the

535
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 1: chairman Adam Schiff of the twenty district of California. He's

536
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: a former prosecutor and he's someone that I think is

537
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: less known in the maelstrom of Trump, Republican and Democratic politics.

538
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: Tell us about Chairman Schiff and what he opens to

539
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: hopes and hopes to accomplish this morning. Yeah, I mean,

540
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: Chairman Schiff has obviously been in the middle of the

541
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: sort of previous smaller investigations as well versed and sort

542
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: of trying to to bring the case against Donald Trump.

543
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: He's somebody who really seems to annoy the president. He's

544
00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 1: had kind of a number of nicknames, some of which

545
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: I don't think I can mention on on radio, or

546
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: the chairman and um and and so I think that

547
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: there is frustration there. But a chairmanship is somebody who

548
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: understands the intelligent community well and is going to likely

549
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: be able to sort of walk through this complaint systematically

550
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: and try to highlight as much potential wrongdoing as he can.

551
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 1: The ranking minority member that will take a different tack

552
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: tell us about the gentleman from California's twenty district. Yeah,

553
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: So Devin nus is Uh has turned into a fierce

554
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: protector of of President Trump throughout this process. He's somebody

555
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: who was kind of a moderate Republicans in the pre

556
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: Trump era, but but since then has really become kind

557
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: of a devoted protector of the president. And I expect

558
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: some of the harshest criticism of Democrats and of this

559
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: entire process to come from uh, from the ranking member.

560
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: I mean, it will come from the ranking member of

561
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. Does everybody do you expect here's uh

562
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: chairmanshift begins his comments. Here, do you expect is this

563
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: going to be a three four, five hours, six hours extravaganza,

564
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: or do they get through it and move on. I

565
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna go quite that long. The

566
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 1: Democrats obviously are gonna want to sort of give this

567
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: as much airtime and as attention as they can get.

568
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: But uh, there are going to be elements of this

569
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:32,239
Speaker 1: that are naturally classified. Uh, and I think they're going

570
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: to run into some roadblocks as they try to go

571
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: through this process, and so there might be a point

572
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: at which they say, hey, let's discuss this in a

573
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: closed session or in private rather than in front of

574
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: these interviews in front of the cameras, just in hopes

575
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: of um, you know, making progress and uncovering new information

576
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: that might be relevant to these congress. So, justin you've

577
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: had all of about fifteen minutes to take a look

578
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: at this documentary, what are some of the things that

579
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: kind of just stand out for you? Sure? I mean

580
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: I think that we uh, I think what is a

581
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: couple of the interesting things. One the role that Rudy

582
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: gi Line he played. We knew that he had been

583
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: sort of freelancing here, UM had been pushing uh the

584
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: idea that there was some sort of misbehavior by Vice

585
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: President Biden or his son. But but we're seeing the

586
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 1: sort of deep consultation with Ukrainian officials here. Uh and uh,

587
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: this the sort of emergence of a timeline president Trump's

588
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: phone call that we got the transcript of yesterday or

589
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: the partial transcript of yesterday, and then follow up meetings

590
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: from Rudy Giuliani. And the other sort of interesting thing

591
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: is that this whistleblower says that multiple US officials expressed

592
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 1: concern about what Ukraine was hearing about this aid potentially

593
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: being tied to uh, an investigation in the Joe Biden

594
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 1: or or you know, the need to play ball with

595
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 1: President Trump, let's go to Vice Admiral McGuire justin sync

596
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: with this, folks, a terrific White House perspective, and of

597
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: course on the the ballet of Washington as well. What

598
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: is the distinction that the gentleman in the blue suit

599
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: and the gold tie is a seal. There's something magical

600
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: in America's military lore of a seal. They're different. What

601
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: does it mean that these politicians and suits and ties

602
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: are talking to a vice admiral that's a seal? Yeah,

603
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it just kind of provides instant credibility. Uh,

604
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 1: And to just underscore the point that I made before,

605
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: this is not going to be sort of an obvious

606
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 1: way that the Republicans who are trying to take the

607
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 1: air out of this entire controversy, they're not gonna be

608
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: able to beat up on this guy. He's a Trump appointing,

609
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: he's got a long and distinguished service history. This isn't

610
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be a shirts versus Skins type of

611
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: battle here, justin I'm looking through this document like the

612
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: rest of us, and you know this, you know the

613
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: section number two, the efforts to restrict access to records

614
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,240
Speaker 1: related to the call. I know that's getting some play

615
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: here early on kind of what kind of jumps out

616
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 1: at you on this issue? Yeah, I mean so obviously,

617
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,959
Speaker 1: I don't think we have full understanding of how the

618
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: White House handles documents. But if what is sort of

619
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 1: laid down this report is true, it suggests that somebody

620
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,760
Speaker 1: within the Trump administration, somebody within the White House, saw

621
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 1: a need to specially protect or move the records related

622
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 1: to this call. And the question, of course is why

623
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: you know, if uh, if a White House official heard

624
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: the President and read it in the way that the

625
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: Democrats are now alleging that it was as a sort

626
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 1: of effort to strong arm Ukraine and investigating his political

627
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 1: rivals and therefore deemed the sensitive didn't want it to

628
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: get out. That tells us a little bit about how

629
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 1: the president's intent was interpreted within his own building and

630
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: by his own aids, And so I think that's going

631
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: to be a big point of inquiry for Democrats. Here

632
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: chairman's speaking right now. We're with Justin Sink Bloomberg News,

633
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 1: the White House. Justin my dumb question of the day,

634
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 1: and it goes to Justin sinc over the White House

635
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg News. How did they decide who asked what questions?

636
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 1: Are they told by leadership? This is your angle? This

637
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 1: is your question? Or is it a free for all? Uh,

638
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: it's somewhere in between. I think they're certainly, especially on

639
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 1: the staff level, as as some amount of coordination where

640
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: they want to hit uh certain points in these documents,

641
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 1: they want to get certain themes across. And uh some

642
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 1: lawmakers are are more willing to sort of work as

643
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: a team than others. But you know, every member of

644
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: Congress is their own boss. And there we will certainly

645
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 1: see people who want to use this as a chance

646
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: to ask the questions that interest them, or even as

647
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 1: shocking as it might be, grandstand a little bit, and

648
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 1: so as much coordination as their attempts to be and

649
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,240
Speaker 1: as much as a Congressional staff member tries to steer

650
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: their member of Congress. And you know, we'll see how

651
00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: it plays out. We welcome out of you on Bloomberg

652
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: Radio worldwide, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keane here in the

653
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: nine o'clock hour, justin sink in Washington briefing us. Is

654
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 1: we await hearing Adam Shift, the chairman from California speaking

655
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: right now, and Paul I will editorialize it is out

656
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 1: of central casting. That is a Navy seal. Is the

657
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 1: body the body language is extraord You can see it

658
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: on radio, folks, trust me. You know what he looks like,

659
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: exactly right. So justin you know, one of the issues

660
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 1: I think Mr McGuire will need to address is kind

661
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 1: of the timing here, the delay that some people are

662
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 1: concerned about between the documents actually being released to Congress.

663
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 1: How do you think that will go? Yeah, this really

664
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 1: bubbled up, especially yesterday because there was a report in

665
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 1: the Washington Post that he had threatened to uh resigned

666
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 1: leave the administration because they weren't allowing him to testify

667
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 1: freely and and frustrations over the process. He denied that strongly. UH.

668
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 1: He said, you know, he'd never been a quitter before

669
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 1: in his life, that the report was untrue, and we

670
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: heard the President complain about it later in the day.

671
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: But I think there is gonna be a lot of

672
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 1: questions from from Democrats just say, hey, the law was

673
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 1: pretty explicit on needing to turn this over. Now the

674
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 1: fact that the White House has now authorized the turning

675
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: over these documents, that they've now become public, I think

676
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,760
Speaker 1: it's going to deflate a little bit of the energy

677
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 1: on that because you know, at the end of the

678
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: day they've got it. A little bit of news flow

679
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: coming in away from a Chairman shift and his opening

680
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: Commons device, Admiral McGuire in the world on the unclassified

681
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: August twelve, nine page memorandum to Richard Burr Senator Burrn

682
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 1: H the Chairman Adam Schiff and this UH the summer

683
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: here of the whistleblower UH in London. The U S

684
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: House of Commons will sit through the Tory conference next week.

685
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 1: John Ferrell mentioned and a really wonderful conversation today that

686
00:38:55,160 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 1: that was extraordinary that there would be the most rudeness

687
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 1: of with all that's going on, that the House would

688
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: not allow for the Tory conference. You you wonder how

689
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: Paul they're going to pull that off. House of Commons

690
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 1: votes against weeklong Tory conference recess. And then for Mr

691
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:17,720
Speaker 1: Reese moog those course in support of Prime Minister Johnson

692
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: a small headline the government wants a general election as

693
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: soon as possible. I think we knew that, and then

694
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:27,320
Speaker 1: Reese also saying timing of the Queen's speech being discussed.

695
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 1: I really can't translate that. I don't know. I think

696
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 1: I just think the next the next issue here is

697
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: is an election, and that will be another opportunity for

698
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 1: the people of the UK to a pint on a

699
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: number of issues, most notably futures, flat yields. Come in,

700
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: let's get back to Justin Sinker White House reporter. What

701
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: is the preparation of the White House to spend this

702
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 1: this afternoon at some pointing into the cable news industry

703
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: this tonight. Yeah, I think it's interesting because the White

704
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 1: House was probably called a little flat footed by how

705
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 1: quickly let's accelerated. It was United Nations week. The presidents

706
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,720
Speaker 1: still up in New York UH doing some fundraising before

707
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: coming back to d C. And to an extent, they

708
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: had wound down their UH anti impeachment operation after the

709
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 1: release of the Mall reports seemed to kind of get

710
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: them into the clear. So, you know, that being said,

711
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: obviously they're gonna and have been sending surrogates out to

712
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 1: talk on TV to make the case, briefing members of Congress.

713
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: About a dozen of them came over yesterday to to

714
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: read the letter in the morning before it was publicly

715
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 1: released and talk about strategy. The President called into that

716
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: call or into that meeting, and so, you know, engaging lawmakers,

717
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: engaging surrogates out and releasing talking points. There's kind of

718
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 1: a funny thing that happened on Capitol Hill yesterday when

719
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 1: the White House accidentally sent its talking points about this

720
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: whole thing not only to Republicans on Capitol Hill, but

721
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: Democrats as well, and then tried to quickly retract it.

722
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: But that I think that only drew attention to everybody

723
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: in boxes. Yeah, it's interesting to watch Mr Noonas now

724
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: speaking that chairman from California. The ranking minority member from

725
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,399
Speaker 1: California really interesting to me in terms of the body

726
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: language today. Paul Sweeney, sitting directly below Devin Noon is

727
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: the minority member is Mr Ratcliffe of Texas, who put

728
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 1: on a drama, or some would say, if you're a

729
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 1: Trump supporter, a magnificent performance during the Muller testimony and

730
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 1: then was vetted for positions and to step aside with

731
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 1: some uproar about his track record. I don't want to

732
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,240
Speaker 1: get into it right now, but you wonder what Paul Sweeney.

733
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 1: You wonder what a John Ratcliffe will do today versus

734
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: the theatrics that we saw, whatever your politics during the

735
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: Muller hearing. Yeah, exactly, and so justin you know, my

736
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 1: next question was kind of what would be a win

737
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: today for the Republicans in this House committee? You know,

738
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 1: I think they just want to continue to make their

739
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 1: case that that although this behavior might not be the

740
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 1: thing that everybody hopes for out of a president, that

741
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: you didn't see that explicit quid pro quo. You want

742
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: to get as much as you can from the Act

743
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: Indiana to suggest that there there aren't existential concerns that

744
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: the president is sort of electionarying with his foreign policy,

745
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 1: and you just want to kind of make that case

746
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: over and over again while suggesting that Democrats are are

747
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 1: sort of unhinged and singularly focused on impagement. Justin what

748
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 1: is the distinction that whatever happens in this small moment

749
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:31,800
Speaker 1: of this large drama, that defense or Pentagon or military

750
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 1: is involved. I mean, Ukraine, is it some kind of

751
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 1: distress war slash conflict with Russia. There's the whole baggage

752
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: of the crimea. I get all that, But if the transactions,

753
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 1: the political and behavioral and handshake transactions of this kerfuffle,

754
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: that's the word that Villon baudou is the other day,

755
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 1: this kerfuffle involves military and Pentagon. Does that change the debate? Well,

756
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 1: I think what's what's interesting about this, and President has

757
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: done this before, is it now politicizes the military budget

758
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: in a way that it hadn't been before. You know,

759
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 1: there's always been an argument between defense hawks and um

760
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: more dobbish doubbish folks, Democrats especially concerned about the defense spending.

761
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 1: But right now what we're seeing is between this Ukraine

762
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: aid that's being used by the president between the military

763
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 1: construction funds that he's tapping to help build his border wall.

764
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 1: Democrats who might otherwise have just sort of shrugged and said,

765
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 1: we don't really care what the Pentagon spending as long

766
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 1: as we can uh continue to fund social programs are

767
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: now going to take a harsher look at this. They're

768
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: gonna say, why are we giving a president who might

769
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:44,760
Speaker 1: be using these powers to pursue his his electoral um

770
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: sort of strategy to to go after signature initiatives that

771
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 1: he couldn't otherwise fund through Congress. It's a it's an

772
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 1: interesting place for the Pentagon to be. August Radio for

773
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 1: your apologists coot through this as we wait the testimony

774
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 1: of the Vice Admiral. When uk Indian soldier was killed

775
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 1: three were wounded in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine

776
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 1: after Russia back separatists open fire with quote, grenade launchers,

777
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 1: heavy machine gun, sniper rifles and small arms, according to

778
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian military. And I would say that's from a

779
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 1: legit source Radio Free Europe. The issue is there's still conflict,

780
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: and I'm certain the people in the eastern region of

781
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 1: Ukraine would say this isn't conflict as war. Well, I'll

782
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 1: leave that to other people. But this is a visceral,

783
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 1: immediate thing right now. It is. It's a very immediate

784
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 1: thing for the folks in that part of the world.

785
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 1: In the military aid from the United States obviously plays

786
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 1: a key role here. So, you know, justin it's interesting,

787
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 1: it's give us some context about today. Uh. How important

788
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: is today this uh testimony in the context of what

789
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: might be in, you know, at the beginning of an

790
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 1: impeachment process. Yes, so I think there's a couple interesting elements,

791
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: one of which is Congress is expected to leave for

792
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 1: for recess and pretty shortly, and so this is one

793
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: of the best shots Democrats have to sort of um

794
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: elevate this process before they get out of town. And

795
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: so I think there's sort of a yeah, there's sort

796
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 1: of an important um way for them to to flag it. Yes, sorry,

797
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 1: they're always leaving for recess, and that you figured that out.

798
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: When are they not leaving soon for recess? That is true.

799
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 1: I take your point, you take my point. I gotta

800
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: take my point. Nathan Hagger takes my point all the time.

801
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 1: Justin sink when when I look at the White House,

802
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 1: I've asked this question three times today. We talked of

803
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 1: a legal team of President Nixon, a legal team of

804
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 1: President Clinton. To find the White House legal team of

805
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 1: President Trump or is he his own attorney. Uh, he

806
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 1: does have lawyers, and I think lawyers have been involved

807
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 1: in sort of the release of these documents, but he

808
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 1: does not have a group sort of especially carved out

809
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 1: to deal with this impeachment issue. They had brought um

810
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 1: that type of team me in for the for the

811
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 1: Muller inquiry, and they had been expecting it for Russia.

812
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 1: But I don't think that they have prepared and they

813
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,239
Speaker 1: have not yet sort of signaled that they're going to

814
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 1: staff up in a way that that takes this new

815
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 1: inquiry seriously. Now again going back to why this this

816
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: hearing today is important. I think we're going to see

817
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 1: today whether this has real momentum and uh, Democrats, you know,

818
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:24,919
Speaker 1: there's a big question about whether Nancy Pelosi just sort

819
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 1: of rhetorically changed the investigations that they were already doing,

820
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 1: or if this actually signals a new effort by by

821
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: Democrats here and if there's a sense that this is

822
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 1: really gonna stick, that this is going to really be

823
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: a headache for the president. Um, we might start to

824
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 1: see staff you know, the White House staff up and

825
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 1: bring in some outside counsel. Yeah, just following up on that,

826
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,880
Speaker 1: it seems like, and it just kind of reading through

827
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 1: this document quickly. The name of Rudy Giuliani obviously, as

828
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: you mentioned, appearing quite frequently. What's the How unusual is

829
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 1: that role for what appears to be the president's private

830
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 1: ernie kind of acting in the context a quasi government official. Yeah.

831
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 1: I don't think that there is a great sort of

832
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 1: modern precedent to that. I mean, obviously presidents have always

833
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: had outside allies, people who are close to them acting

834
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 1: on their on their behalf. But that's part of what

835
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,720
Speaker 1: I think makes this so unique is that Rudy Giuliani

836
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: is playing a role as a lawyer, as a diplomat,

837
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 1: as a activist, as a sort of campaign official, and um,

838
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 1: that's a relatively unprecedented, unique role. Justice sinc. We're gonna

839
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: let you go, our White House reporter. He's got a

840
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 1: lot to do. It really were we really were jealous

841
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: of his time. We took too much of it this morning.

842
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

843
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

844
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane Before

845
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

846
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:01,280
Speaker 1: Radio