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Speaker 1: tonight here at the volume, Happy Tuesday, everybody, hope all
Speaker 1: if you guys are having a great start, to your week.
Speaker 1: We're moving on to Dallas on the offensive side of
Speaker 1: the ball as we continue our NBA Finals preview. Don't
Speaker 1: forget we also have the Nerd Sash guys coming on
Speaker 1: tomorrow and then tomorrow morning, I have a separate video
Speaker 1: that I'm recording after this where I'm going to go
Speaker 1: over my actual predictions and what I expect to see,
Speaker 1: kind of in more of a big picture view of
Speaker 1: this series. So final prediction and taking all that stuff
Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. Today we're doing Dallas on the offensive end
Speaker 1: of the floor. You guys know the Joe before we
Speaker 1: get started. Subscribe to the Hoops to I YouTube channel
Speaker 1: so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Underscore jsonlt so you guys don't
Speaker 1: miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever
Speaker 1: you get your podcast under Hoops tonight, and then keep
Speaker 1: dropping mailbag questions and the YouTube comments so we can
Speaker 1: keep hitting them throughout the rest of the series as
Speaker 1: well as into the off season. My game plan in
Speaker 1: terms of like the day to day breakdown as we
Speaker 1: get into the series, since there's three day sequences, we're
Speaker 1: gonna be covering the games the night of in like
Speaker 1: instant reaction format with Colin Coward. Then I'm gonna do
Speaker 1: like a film session the following morning that kind of
Speaker 1: digs deeper into the x's and o's, and I think
Speaker 1: that next day we just do a mailbag kind of
Speaker 1: like final centric mailbags. I think that'd be fun. So
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a game plan as we go through.
Speaker 1: We'll have some special guests too. I plan on having
Speaker 1: I'm move in the same Vassini interview that we were
Speaker 1: gonna do yesterday. We're gonna move it into the series
Speaker 1: so we can do more kind of focused on adjustments
Speaker 1: and things along those lines, which should be fun. All right,
Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball, So we're gonna go similar to
Speaker 1: what we did yesterday. We're gonna do kind of the
Speaker 1: monologue up front where we go everything verbally, and then
Speaker 1: I have twenty two clips of film that we're gonna
Speaker 1: look at the tail end of the show to kind
Speaker 1: of go over these specific things that we're talking about.
Speaker 1: Dallas had a one ten offensive rating in both games
Speaker 1: that they played this year. The January twenty second game
Speaker 1: in the March first game. Boston guarded them well overall,
Speaker 1: but Dallas also didn't shoot particularly well in terms of
Speaker 1: just what they were getting at the end of those plays. Right.
Speaker 1: They were twenty for seventy four from three overall, which
Speaker 1: is just thirty one percent. They were twenty one for
Speaker 1: sixty nine on open and wide open threes, which means
Speaker 1: all the threes where the defender was at least four
Speaker 1: feet away when the shot was taken. That's just thirty percent,
Speaker 1: and you expect that to be more in the high thirties. Right. So,
Speaker 1: like in general, Boston defended well, but it's also important
Speaker 1: to point out that Dallas didn't shoot particularly well. Luca
Speaker 1: did light them up. Light them up specifically in the
Speaker 1: March first game, he had thirty seven points on fifty
Speaker 1: six percent shooting, eleven assists with two turnovers. Kyrie in
Speaker 1: that game had a good night on the ball, but
Speaker 1: was really missing his off ball attempts that kind of
Speaker 1: hurt his shooting stats. Both of them had rough nights
Speaker 1: in the January game. Boston had them in a really
Speaker 1: uncomfortable position throughout. They had just fifty six points on
Speaker 1: fifty shots in that particular game. So we're gonna talk
Speaker 1: mostly about matchups and who can guard who when it
Speaker 1: pertains to this side of the floor. The main reason
Speaker 1: why is like Dallas will run some stuff like they'll
Speaker 1: run some stack and roll where you backscreen for the
Speaker 1: role man as he's going to the basket. They'll run
Speaker 1: some double drag where the first guy will roll, the
Speaker 1: second guy will pop, stuff like that. But for the
Speaker 1: most part, this is a brute force for out one
Speaker 1: in offense. What that means is, for the most part,
Speaker 1: it's once Luca gets whatever matchup he wants, it's just
Speaker 1: here comes the ball screen, right, and it'll look a
Speaker 1: little funky because Boston's gonna do some weird stuff with
Speaker 1: the matchups that we're going to talk about in a
Speaker 1: little bit, But for the most part, it's just spread
Speaker 1: the floor, get the on ball matchup you want. Here
Speaker 1: comes the ball screen corner, three point shooter in the
Speaker 1: left corner, corner, three point shooter in the right corner.
Speaker 1: Guy roll into the basket and shoot her up on
Speaker 1: the right wing. Right. That's just the kind of general
Speaker 1: layout that Dallas is going to go with, and even
Speaker 1: with even when they run action that doesn't involve the center,
Speaker 1: which is going to be a substantial part of this
Speaker 1: series because I think that Boston will put Tatum on
Speaker 1: the center a lot, which we're going to talk about
Speaker 1: in more detail here in a minute. In those situations,
Speaker 1: it's still the same spacing. It's instead of having a
Speaker 1: shooter up on the wing, that guy ends up being
Speaker 1: the guy who's setting the screen. You have your two
Speaker 1: shooters in the corner, and then Livelier or Gafford will
Speaker 1: just kind of be parked in the dunker spot. And
Speaker 1: then that when Luca gets downhill, it's the same kind
Speaker 1: of concept as what he's doing in a drop coverage.
Speaker 1: He's trying to manipulate the rim protector into leaving Livelier
Speaker 1: Gaffer to step over and help so that Luca can
Speaker 1: throw that lob pass. So even when it turns into
Speaker 1: different variations of the angle that they look to attack
Speaker 1: the defense, it still is more or less the same
Speaker 1: configuration in terms of their spacing, which is kind of
Speaker 1: just the way Dallas runs runs offense. Right, they're the
Speaker 1: textbook heliocentric modern layout of offense that involves more primary
Speaker 1: shot creation, right, Like those are the two kind of
Speaker 1: schools of thought, Right, Like, get a couple of great
Speaker 1: shot creators and a bunch of play finishers. And run
Speaker 1: four out, or get a bunch of guys who can
Speaker 1: do everything and run five out and keep everybody involved. Right,
Speaker 1: those are kind of like the main two functions. So
Speaker 1: let's talk about these specific matchups that I expect to
Speaker 1: see in this series. So, for Luca, Brown will most
Speaker 1: likely get the start. He got it in both games
Speaker 1: in the regular season. He's the best combination of on
Speaker 1: the ball strength to disrupt Luca's base, the length to
Speaker 1: disrupt pull up shooting, and also the best option in
Speaker 1: terms of keeping size on the back line. That's key
Speaker 1: because when we talk about potential options that involve Tatum
Speaker 1: on the ball, it just makes it so that Boston's
Speaker 1: pretty small on the back line, and I'll show you
Speaker 1: some examples in film where that can burn them. Right. So,
Speaker 1: I think Jaylen Brown's going to get the start, But
Speaker 1: to be clear, everyone's going to see time on Luca
Speaker 1: because Boston concedes guard guard switch guard guard switches really easily.
Speaker 1: So like if Kyrie has Drew Holliday on him and
Speaker 1: he runs up at the beginning of the possession and
Speaker 1: just sets a brush screen on Jlen Brown, They're just
Speaker 1: going to concede the switch. And now Luca's got Drew
Speaker 1: Holliday on him. So like, even though Jaln Brown is
Speaker 1: probably the best option, I think Luca's gonna be able
Speaker 1: to get really whoever he wants. And you'll notice when
Speaker 1: we get to the Keys. That's something that I'd like
Speaker 1: to see Boston fight against. But we'll see what they
Speaker 1: end up doing when we get into the series. For Kyrie,
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday got to start in both games. Derek White
Speaker 1: did spend a good amount of time on him, especially
Speaker 1: in some of the bench groups, but Drew did a
Speaker 1: better job, which you guys will see on film. Also,
Speaker 1: like Derek White is best if you have to choose
Speaker 1: between those two guys, which is the better off ball player? Defensively,
Speaker 1: that Derek White shot blocking piece, He's got the length,
Speaker 1: he's got excellent instincts. He can really offer some help
Speaker 1: at the rim and be a problem. So in addition
Speaker 1: to Drew just kind of being a better option on
Speaker 1: the ball because he's more physical, He's just like I
Speaker 1: think Kyrie's more bothered by physicality than the length. Anyway,
Speaker 1: I don't think Kyrie really sees contests, So like, Drew's
Speaker 1: a better matchup for Kyrie but it also is smart
Speaker 1: because it keeps Derek White off the ball as much
Speaker 1: as possible. But Derek White will see time on Kyrie
Speaker 1: as well, which you guys will see on film. Kyrie
Speaker 1: seemed to be pretty comfortable getting to his spots against
Speaker 1: Derek White, though Derek Jones Jr. Will see the other
Speaker 1: guard in this case Derek White, right. And again that's
Speaker 1: a perfect spot because if Derek Jones is spotting up
Speaker 1: in the corner, you like having Derek White there to
Speaker 1: be able to make help side rotations at the rim.
Speaker 1: And lastly, the PJ. Washington and then Gafford Lively front
Speaker 1: court in the regular season. Now Lively started in the
Speaker 1: regular season game, but in the regular season Boston started
Speaker 1: with Tatum on Derek Lively. Now, but if you guys
Speaker 1: remember in the Pacers series, the Celtics did a similar
Speaker 1: thing where they started Tatum on Miles Turner in the
Speaker 1: regular season, but then when they started the series they
Speaker 1: started Horford on him and then adjusted to Tatum on
Speaker 1: Turner over the course of the series. It was like
Speaker 1: it was like right before halftime of Game one, if
Speaker 1: I remember correctly. So what that means is, don't be
Speaker 1: surprised if we see Porzingis on Gafford to start the series,
Speaker 1: but this will eventually end with Porzingis on PJ. Washington
Speaker 1: and Tatum on the center. And there's a very specific
Speaker 1: reason why Boston wants to do that when Tatum is
Speaker 1: on the center. As we talked about so much coming
Speaker 1: into the series in the mailbag, any pick and roll
Speaker 1: just ends up with the switch, right, So like, if
Speaker 1: Tatum is guarding, if Tatum is guarding Daniel Gafford to
Speaker 1: start the series, and let's say Jalen Brown is on Luca,
Speaker 1: all you're accomplishing by running that action is now Tatum,
Speaker 1: Boston's best and most versatile defensive player is now on Luca.
Speaker 1: That doesn't accomplish much and Daniel Gaffer's not going to
Speaker 1: be able to post up Jalen Brown, right, So like
Speaker 1: that just kind of mitigates any sort of success from
Speaker 1: that specific action. Right. Also, like if you put Porzingis
Speaker 1: on PJ. Washington, now when PJ. Washington comes to set
Speaker 1: the screen, when Porzingis sits into his drop coverage, no
Speaker 1: matter what PJ. Washington does, it is a much lower
Speaker 1: value play than anything Gafford could do in a ball screen.
Speaker 1: What I mean by that is, if you are PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington and you're spotting up often, you're in the corner. Right. PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington has been a very good corner three point shooter
Speaker 1: in this postseason run. He's shooting forty one point two
Speaker 1: percent on threes out of either corner, but he's twenty
Speaker 1: nine point five percent on above the break three So
Speaker 1: bad above the break less than a point per shot.
Speaker 1: Great from the corners up over one point two points
Speaker 1: per shot. Right. So, now imagine the geometry of a
Speaker 1: ball screen. Right, So if PJ. Washington comes and sets
Speaker 1: the screen, because Luca doesn't want to bring up Gafford
Speaker 1: because all he's doing is getting Tatum on a switch,
Speaker 1: which is not advantageous for Luca. Right, So he's probably
Speaker 1: not going to bring Gafford into the screen as much
Speaker 1: he's gonna bring PJ. Washington because he wants to try
Speaker 1: to target Porzingis in a drop coverage. Right. So, if PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington comes up and sets the ball screen and Luca
Speaker 1: gets Jylen Brown onto his tail side, or even if
Speaker 1: he gets a guard like Drew Holiday or Derek White,
Speaker 1: same thing, they're on his backside as he's working downhill.
Speaker 1: But let's look at it through. Let's look at it
Speaker 1: through three different situations. What if PJ rolls. If PJ rolls,
Speaker 1: he's not the kind of vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford
Speaker 1: and Derek Lively are. With Daniel Gaffer and Derek Lively,
Speaker 1: there's a huge passing window that Luca can hit and
Speaker 1: he can go high way above Porzingis's arms if he
Speaker 1: lunges over to try to block the shot, and Gafford
Speaker 1: and Lively can dunk anything, right, Like that's what we
Speaker 1: saw Luca doing to Rudy Gobert. All sees a series
Speaker 1: long right, just kind of baiting him into no man's land,
Speaker 1: getting that lob pass over the top, and it's just
Speaker 1: such a big passing window. Even when Gilbert would like
Speaker 1: kind of lean back and try to block it, Gafford
Speaker 1: was just so high above the rim, right, PJ. Washington
Speaker 1: is not that type of vertical spacing threat. In addition
Speaker 1: to that, you are rolling into the lane or Jason
Speaker 1: Tatum is gonna be waiting because he's guarding the center,
Speaker 1: and the center is gonna be in the dunker spot
Speaker 1: because it's a non shooter, which is going to put
Speaker 1: Tatum in a position where he can effectively help Porzingis.
Speaker 1: So now what you can do is Porzingis can be
Speaker 1: more aggressive towards Luca in the ball screen, because as PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington is rolling downhill, Tatum's kind of in that no
Speaker 1: man's land. And if it like obviously Luca will have
Speaker 1: the ability to try to throw lobs the Gafford and Lively,
Speaker 1: but it's just a lot of congestion down there, and
Speaker 1: Tatum can try to bait that lob pass into PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington and try to break that up. Right, So the
Speaker 1: role from PJ. Washington, just to put it simply, is
Speaker 1: a more difficult situation for Luca to manage in terms
Speaker 1: of his decision making than if it was a vertical
Speaker 1: spacer like Daniel Gafford or or Derek Lively. Right now,
Speaker 1: what if PJ. Washington pops. You can't pop to the corner.
Speaker 1: That's not how it works, right Like, if these ball
Speaker 1: screens are being run above the break, and in all likelihood,
Speaker 1: if Luca is gonna be trying to work downhill into
Speaker 1: the lane, PJ. Washington's gonna be popping close to the
Speaker 1: top of the key. Most of the time, that's a
Speaker 1: spot where he shoots twenty nine point five percent on
Speaker 1: those particular threes. Right, So, like a couple things. First
Speaker 1: of all, my guess is that the staff for Dallas
Speaker 1: is gonna have PJ. Washington all week long practicing pick
Speaker 1: and pops. It's gonna be a completely different type of
Speaker 1: offensive series for him because he's just going to have
Speaker 1: to be able to either knock down that three or
Speaker 1: drive that close out and make stuff happen off of
Speaker 1: the bounce. It's gonna be a lot of pressure on PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington to produce offensively. And then, lastly, if PJ. Washington
Speaker 1: is spacing, so let's say that Luca gets a matchup
Speaker 1: that he likes. Let's say he gets Derek White on
Speaker 1: a switch and he decides to start going to the post.
Speaker 1: Right now, if PJ. Washington goes in spaces to the corner,
Speaker 1: which is where he is most successful as a shooter,
Speaker 1: that is, of all of the five to three point spots, corner, corner, wing, wing,
Speaker 1: top of the key, of all those five spots, that's
Speaker 1: the easiest rotation for porzingis to make. He can stand
Speaker 1: one foot outside of the block and lunge into the
Speaker 1: lane to help or close out to the corner, and
Speaker 1: it's a shorter close out than if he had to
Speaker 1: go all the way above the break. So, no matter what,
Speaker 1: by putting Porzingis on PJ. Washington, it helps Boston tilt
Speaker 1: Dallas's offense towards their life or value shots, which is
Speaker 1: either you're gonna attack Tatum in a switch in a
Speaker 1: ball screen, which is not a good idea, or you're
Speaker 1: going to bring Porzingis into the action, which is going
Speaker 1: to force PJ. Washington to be a role man or
Speaker 1: to be an above the break three point shooter, which
Speaker 1: are the two things that he's not doing as well
Speaker 1: in this particular postseason run. So that's kind of why
Speaker 1: I expect to see a lot of Porzingis on PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington over the corner over the course of the series.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Luca though. In general, I think Boston's
Speaker 1: gonna be able to guard Kyrie pretty well. They have
Speaker 1: excellent guard defenders. He's gonna hit shots and he'll find
Speaker 1: ways to contribute, but they should be able to limit
Speaker 1: his efficiency to a certain extent. But they don't really
Speaker 1: have anybody that can guard Luca except for Jason Tatum,
Speaker 1: and you guys will see on film Luca has some
Speaker 1: success against Jason Tatum as well. We saw this in
Speaker 1: the Minnesota series. Just think about it from a really
Speaker 1: basic standpoint, like Minnesota had Jada McDaniels and Rudy Gobaer
Speaker 1: and another big forward in Karl Anthony Towns on the
Speaker 1: back line to kill Alexander Walker, Anthony Edwards, Kyle Anderson.
Speaker 1: They just had a plethora of prim defenders, a ton
Speaker 1: of length, one of the best rim protectors in the league.
Speaker 1: Say what you want about Rudy Gobert, he is a much, much,
Speaker 1: much much better defensive player than both chrisps Porzingis and
Speaker 1: Al Horford. It's just a totally different stratosphere. Like Gobert
Speaker 1: is somewhere around the fifth best defender in the world,
Speaker 1: and Porzingis and and Horford are just not in most
Speaker 1: conversations right, So, like Luca's gonna be comfortable. Specifically, even
Speaker 1: though Jalen Brown is the best option I think for
Speaker 1: Boston in terms of keeping the geometry of the floor
Speaker 1: good for them, He's not big enough. Drew Holliday is
Speaker 1: not big enough, Derek White's not big enough. It's just there.
Speaker 1: He's going to be comfortable. I think he's gonna have
Speaker 1: success getting to his spot. So the question is, if
Speaker 1: you're Boston, how do you make life harder on Luca?
Speaker 1: First of all, I put down I put down two
Speaker 1: specific things that we're gonna hit on. First of all,
Speaker 1: make him work against your tougher matchups. So make him
Speaker 1: work against Tatum and Brown. What that means is, don't
Speaker 1: concede switches so easily. You guys are gonna see a
Speaker 1: lot of examples in the film where it's just there's
Speaker 1: there's no attempts to try to fight through a basic
Speaker 1: guard guard screen at the beginning of an action and
Speaker 1: Luca gets the matchup he wants like this, and then
Speaker 1: he goes to work. There's a certain tendency with Luca too,
Speaker 1: when he calls for those types of screens. He'll call
Speaker 1: for him like like thirty thirty five feet from the basket,
Speaker 1: and honestly, the only purpose the screen serves is to
Speaker 1: get a switch. Luca's not like trying to turn the
Speaker 1: corner quickly in those situations. So like, just fight through them,
Speaker 1: just fight through them. And I don't even think you
Speaker 1: necessarily have to hedge considering, I don't think Luca's gonna
Speaker 1: really look to attack that often in those situations, So
Speaker 1: just fight through those switches. Eventually you'll get later in
Speaker 1: the clock where if Luca walks it up and there's
Speaker 1: fifteen seconds on the shot clock by the time he
Speaker 1: calls the first guard guard screen and you fight through
Speaker 1: two of them, and all of a sudden there's nine
Speaker 1: on the shot clock, he's just gonna look to go.
Speaker 1: And so I think by doing simple stuff like that,
Speaker 1: you can push them into late clock situations where you
Speaker 1: can play them into their lower value shots. And then lastly,
Speaker 1: just Porzingis in those defensive coverages needs to favor Luca
Speaker 1: instead of favoring PJ. So for ends, since if PJ
Speaker 1: does roll to the basket, there was an example to
Speaker 1: show you guys, it's the first possession. It's actually the
Speaker 1: first clipper looking at where Porzingis was a little too
Speaker 1: keyed in on PJ Washington and he allowed Luca to
Speaker 1: get an easy bank shot. Like when you have the PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington matchup, you need to make PJ score there, and
Speaker 1: you need to make Luca make tighter window passes to
Speaker 1: a lesser vertical spacer and to above the break three
Speaker 1: point shooter that struggles to make the shot. So that's
Speaker 1: an example where Porzingis can be more aggressive in pick
Speaker 1: and roll. But in general, again, just make him shoot
Speaker 1: against your bigger forwards, make him try to score over
Speaker 1: the top of Porzingis, or make those tight, tighter window passes.
Speaker 1: I think that's how you can plow play him into
Speaker 1: his lower efficiency keys for both teams. Again, for Dallas,
Speaker 1: get favorable matchups. For Luca, get the ball up the
Speaker 1: floor quickly so you don't end up in late clock
Speaker 1: situations for on guard guard screens to get Drew or
Speaker 1: Derek switched on to Luca before running the ball screen.
Speaker 1: Take advantage of Boston being lazy when they want to
Speaker 1: be lazy in those situations. One other thing that I
Speaker 1: think they should experiment with is as long as they
Speaker 1: have Tatum on Gafford lively and they're willing to switch
Speaker 1: that action, it might be interesting to see if and
Speaker 1: I don't mean this as a score, I don't want
Speaker 1: Luca trying to score on Tatum. I think that would
Speaker 1: wear them out. It just would be too difficult over
Speaker 1: the course of the series. But I think if this
Speaker 1: more is Luca functioning as a passer. What if he
Speaker 1: goes after Tatum and switches, gets Tatum on the ball,
Speaker 1: and then looks to run another action where he can
Speaker 1: get guys slipping out of the action into the back line,
Speaker 1: because the back line when Tatum's not there is substantially smaller.
Speaker 1: Luke like Tatum is the only real big forward that
Speaker 1: they have. Jalen Brown to me, is more of a
Speaker 1: smaller forward. And then they've got their centers right, So
Speaker 1: like if you put them in a situation where they're
Speaker 1: smaller players on the back line, just imagine you have
Speaker 1: Tatum on Luca and then you bring Porzingis into the
Speaker 1: ball screen. You have their two biggest players out at
Speaker 1: the three point line. Quick slipping out of that and
Speaker 1: hitting passes will allow guys to attack that Boston back
Speaker 1: line when they're and again, I have some clips that
Speaker 1: I'll show you guys that will demonstrate that. And then lastly,
Speaker 1: just they need Kyrie to produce. Like he's gonna have
Speaker 1: tough matchups. He's gonna have some opportunities to attack and
Speaker 1: drop coverage, but he's gonna have good defenders on him consistently.
Speaker 1: If he can produce Obviously, that just gives more margin
Speaker 1: for air to everything else that Dallas does on the
Speaker 1: Boston front, physical ball pressure again, just fatiguing and attacking
Speaker 1: the base. We saw that with Lou Dort have some
Speaker 1: effect against Luca. Against Luca in the second round, avoiding
Speaker 1: switches as much as possible. Again, I think just something
Speaker 1: simple like Jaylen Brown fighting through one or two guard
Speaker 1: screens at the start of a possession can get Dallas
Speaker 1: into late clock situations and make things harder for them offensively.
Speaker 1: And then lastly, tilt Dallas's offense toward lower value shots
Speaker 1: above the rake threes for role players, Luca's shot attempts
Speaker 1: against Tatum and Brown instead of the smaller guards. And
Speaker 1: then one of the things you'll see in the in
Speaker 1: the film too is like Kyrie does have some success
Speaker 1: attacking and drop coverage, and one of the easy ways
Speaker 1: to kind of fight against that is in the Kyrie
Speaker 1: led units, when it's all bench groups out there, maybe
Speaker 1: go smaller and lean into switching and at least forced
Speaker 1: Kyrie to attack good defensive players in isolation. The volume