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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and.

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Speaker 1: Then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: One for Ukraine, one for Israel, one for Taiwan. Then

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Speaker 3: another piece of legislation to bring in things like the

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Speaker 3: REPO Act, maybe TikTok all of this foreign policy. Remember

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Speaker 3: the emergency funding request at the end of last year

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Speaker 3: that already passed the Senate. This is the Houses attempt

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Speaker 3: to try to do all of this through a series

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Speaker 3: of votes. Pretty amazing that we're not there yet because

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Speaker 3: again we're talking about a Saturday vote and that's just

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Speaker 3: the House. In the Senate. Hold on. Jd Vance just

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Speaker 3: tweeted rumored course of action in the House. Combine Ukraine

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Speaker 3: and Israel aid with other Biden boondoggles, send it all

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Speaker 3: to the Senate as a combined package. Then let the

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Speaker 3: House vote on a fake border security package that has

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Speaker 3: no chance. He calls it betrayal and stupid politics. To boot.

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Speaker 3: Mike Dorning joins us to clear a path here to

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Speaker 3: maybe some truth helping to edit our coverage in Washington

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Speaker 3: from Capitol Hill to our bureau here downtown DC. It's

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Speaker 3: good to see you, Mike. Great to be here. We

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Speaker 3: are expecting something before this day is out. Correct.

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Speaker 4: Yes, Speaker Johnson just sent a text to all the members,

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Speaker 4: which our reporters on the Hill quickly saw outlining the

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Speaker 4: conditions that would be in the bill, and we expect

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Speaker 4: to have text eminently.

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Speaker 3: So that means all these meetings Mike Johnson's been having

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Speaker 3: with conservative Republicans who are upset with him not to

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Speaker 3: mention the motion to vacate hanging over his head with

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Speaker 3: now two names on it. He's actually holding the line

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Speaker 3: on his plan that he unveiled Sunday night.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he had said he was going to release this

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Speaker 4: plan yesterday, so everyone was wondering. You know, he had

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Speaker 4: dragged on into the night and in the morning we

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Speaker 4: didn't get it, and we knew that hardliners were furious

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Speaker 4: with him and trying to talk him out of it.

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Speaker 4: But in the end, you know, just before noon today

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Speaker 4: he stuck with it and said, I'm going to press

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Speaker 4: forward with my plan. So now we have to watch

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Speaker 4: the hardliners and see how they react. We have, as

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Speaker 4: you mentioned, two hardliners that had already said they would,

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Speaker 4: you know, participate in a coup attempt and try to

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Speaker 4: overthrow him. But they need to get more hardliners into

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Speaker 4: the overthrow. Democrats, meanwhile, have been saying that if the

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Speaker 4: Ukraine Aid plan essentially does the same thing as the

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Speaker 4: Senate version of the bill, and maybe has a few

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Speaker 4: other minor tweaks, they would at least for the time being,

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Speaker 4: back Johnson. So we still haven't seen the exact provisions

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Speaker 4: in the bill. The Democrats are waiting for that, but

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Speaker 4: the Democratic cavalry might save him at least temporarily if

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Speaker 4: this bill meets some condition.

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Speaker 3: So this is just a brutal mission for Tom Emmer.

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Speaker 3: The majority whip right. You're not just whipping one, You're

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Speaker 3: whipping four bills now, and everybody's angry at somebody. Do

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Speaker 3: we believe that they are counting votes to pass them.

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Speaker 4: Uh, certainly they're counting votes to pass them. But actually

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Speaker 4: part of the reason they broke him up into separate

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Speaker 4: bills was to make it easier to get the bills passed.

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Speaker 4: You can have Ukraine Aid that all the Democratic progressives

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Speaker 4: will go along with while the ultra conservatives can all

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Speaker 4: vote against it, and then you can have Israel Aid

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Speaker 4: that the Democratic Progressives won't vote for because it doesn't

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Speaker 4: require rules, but all the ultra conservatives.

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Speaker 3: Splitting him up. But there's a war room somewhere with nothing,

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Speaker 3: oh for sure, bills on it, and this guy's got

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Speaker 3: to be up all night. It's a massive jigsaw puzzle.

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Speaker 4: They did that to make it easy understood.

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Speaker 3: So how though, then stitching it back together the Frankenstein's strategy,

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Speaker 3: as I've been calling it, could be the complicated part here.

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Speaker 3: And then what, let's say this goes great? They pass everything,

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Speaker 3: they put them all together somehow, and Frankenstein walks over

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Speaker 3: to the Senate. Should we be assuming that that passes

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Speaker 3: when you have JD Vance calling this betrayal?

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Speaker 4: Well, I don't think they were counting on jdbo case

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Speaker 4: vote to begin with. But I think that if it

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Speaker 4: basically meets the conditions that Senator Schumer and President Biden

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Speaker 4: want that they're willing to live with, I think it

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Speaker 4: will pass the Senate. It might take some time because

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Speaker 4: folks like JD Vance and others might drag it out

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Speaker 4: a bit. But remember in the Senate you've got more

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Speaker 4: support for this among Republicans than you do in the House.

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Speaker 3: Sure, yes, although they wonder what happens when there's no

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Speaker 3: border provision in there, like that bill that passed the

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Speaker 3: Senate had, But we're about to find out. Mike. It's

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Speaker 3: great to have you back. Great to be here. By

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Speaker 3: the way, Mike joined us just as he was coming

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Speaker 3: up for air editing a story that just hit the terminal.

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Speaker 3: If you want to see what's going on, look at

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Speaker 3: the terminal Bloomberg dot Com. Great work as always, Mike.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for bringing us inside the process. Here, I'm

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Speaker 3: Joe Matthew and Washington, where we talk to a lot

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Speaker 3: of politicians we will later today. That's part of our

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Speaker 3: job to hear from d's and rs the way they

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Speaker 3: feel about this, what their motives are, and the way

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Speaker 3: they think that it's going to come out. But of

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Speaker 3: course it's a different conversation when you're talking to an

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Speaker 3: elected official than a true expert in the field. We've

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Speaker 3: been working on a daily basis to try to bring

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Speaker 3: you both. It's our job here to talk to the

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Speaker 3: folks who are representing you in Washington on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 3: But then there's a voice like Ambassador Ian Kelly, who

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Speaker 3: has served a career in diplomacy and understands the impact

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Speaker 3: that the funding debate has in the real world. What's

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Speaker 3: actually happening on the ground in a place like Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Ambassador in Residence for International Studies in Slavic Languages, Literature

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Speaker 3: and Northwestern University, former ambassad US Ambassador to Georgia, and

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Speaker 3: former US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation

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Speaker 3: in Europe. Mister ambassador, thank you for joining us. Great

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Speaker 3: to see you here as we talk about whether we're

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Speaker 3: going to see a vote Saturday, whether it will take

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Speaker 3: weeks or even months to start making the shells and

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Speaker 3: other munitions that this money would help to buy for

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Speaker 3: use in Ukraine. We're also reading stories today about low

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Speaker 3: morale units that have been waiting weeks, if not months,

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Speaker 3: for ammunition. What is the real impact of this delay

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Speaker 3: in Ukraine?

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Speaker 5: Well, first of all, thanks for having me. And there's

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Speaker 5: a real impact, especially on the frontline fighters. They're unable

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Speaker 5: to respond to Russian artillery because they have to ration

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Speaker 5: their shells. In some places they're out shelled by ten

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Speaker 5: to one, and there's a there's kind of a there's

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Speaker 5: a morale aspect, you know, besides the fact that they

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Speaker 5: can't respond as they have been able to, and that's

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Speaker 5: that they have really felt that they that the US

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Speaker 5: and NATO had their backs.

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Speaker 6: But in the last few.

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Speaker 5: Months, of course, the bipartisan support, much of it seems

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Speaker 5: to have melted away. And so that really does affect

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Speaker 5: the morale of these of these soldiers on the front line,

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Speaker 5: affects the morale of of of everyday Ukrainians. So there

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Speaker 5: is a real, I think measurable impact on public opinion

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Speaker 5: and on the morale of soldiers.

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Speaker 3: The reporting I reference in Politico this morning refers to

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Speaker 3: morale and ammunition shortages units that have not had a

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Speaker 3: shell to fire in a month. Carries the headline Ambassador,

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Speaker 3: Ukraine is heading for defeat, It says, the West failure

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Speaker 3: to send weapons to Kivas, helping Putin win his war.

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Speaker 3: Some think that maybe he has already won, or I

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Speaker 3: guess a better way to put it is Ukraine may

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Speaker 3: have already lost because of the foot dragging here in Washington.

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Speaker 5: Do you agree, well, it certainly has given aid and

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Speaker 5: comfort to Vladimir Putin this months long knockdown, drag out

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Speaker 5: fight over whether to continue supporting Ukraine. The Ukrainians are

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Speaker 5: very much determined not to allow Putin to take over

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Speaker 5: their country. They've seen what it means to live under

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Speaker 5: occupation in places like Bucha, where dozens of civilians were massacred.

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Speaker 5: So there's I think quite a determination to continue resisting.

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Speaker 5: But of course, Russia has three times the population of Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: has a much bigger industrial capacity. In the long term,

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Speaker 5: uh it it doesn't look good unless they have the

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Speaker 5: kind of high technology that we can offer and the

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Speaker 5: kind of industrial capacity that.

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Speaker 6: We can offer.

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Speaker 3: So if there is no funding here, if this mechanism

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Speaker 3: that we're looking at now, another swing, another attempt in

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Speaker 3: Washington doesn't work out, Ukraine will lose. We can say

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Speaker 3: that out loud, right.

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Speaker 5: I you know, I I don't think it will end

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Speaker 5: the war. I mean, even if Russia is able to

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Speaker 5: break through and UH and and take take territory, we

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Speaker 5: will continue to have a war there because UH there

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Speaker 5: will continue to be resistance.

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Speaker 7: UH.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think another real UH damage that this

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Speaker 5: long drawn out battle has at as we're beginning to

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Speaker 5: look like an unreliable ally to UH overseas, and we

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Speaker 5: all so are also being seen as perhaps being willing

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Speaker 5: to let aggression stand if we don't pass this AID.

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Speaker 5: So there's just a number of very damaging developments that

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Speaker 5: could come out of this, both the Ukrainians and I

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Speaker 5: think to our own reputation.

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Speaker 3: Well, I wanted to ask you about that very thing.

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Speaker 3: You also serves as a State Department spokesman under Secretary

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Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton, and so I know you appreciate the impact

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Speaker 3: of rhetoric perception when it comes to international relations. And

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Speaker 3: we've heard this before, Ambassador. We had a conversation with

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Speaker 3: Andrea Duda of Poland who told us right here at

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg that a failure in this case to act and

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Speaker 3: taking it even a step further to talk about a

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Speaker 3: weakening NATO, for instance, if Donald Trump were re elected

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Speaker 3: would provoke other countries to consider starting their own nuclear programs.

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Speaker 3: What would be the fallout in Europe, specifically among our

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Speaker 3: NATO allies if the US fails to act.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm glad you asked that question. I think that's

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Speaker 5: really kind of an underappreciated result of this war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 5: The United States and most NATO allies have withheld I

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Speaker 5: think quite a few very necessary weapons like long range

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Speaker 5: artillery and aviation for fear of provoking Putin from using

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Speaker 5: nuclear weapons, and so the lesson that a lot of

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Speaker 5: powers draw around the world is, if you want to

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Speaker 5: be immune to any kind of concerted Western response to

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Speaker 5: your you know, to aggression, just have a few nukes

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Speaker 5: and you will be safe. You know, no one is

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Speaker 5: going to try and do you know, to you what

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Speaker 5: the America did to Iraq, for example, there won't be Yeah,

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Speaker 5: you won't have worry about regime change. This is a

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Speaker 5: serious issue. I think that really needs to be addressed more.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's pretty scary stuff to consider here, ambassador. Let's

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Speaker 3: look at the other side of the coin. Let's say

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Speaker 3: this money is passed potentially this weekend. We're talking about

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Speaker 3: a Saturday vote in the House, we have the President's

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Speaker 3: signature the next week or so. Would the window have

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Speaker 3: closed by the time we can get material to Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: We were told by the administration they were running out

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Speaker 3: of AMMO at the end of last year. There are

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Speaker 3: questions about too little, too late, or could Ukraine use

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Speaker 3: that moment to start pushing back and maybe punch through

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Speaker 3: its lines with Russia.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think we are reaching that point where you know,

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Speaker 5: we won't be able to provide Ukraine with even the

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Speaker 5: weapons to defend it. There was some bridge funding that

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Speaker 5: the Defense department department found, but we're reaching the point

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Speaker 5: where that's going to run out too. But it's there's

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Speaker 5: still time. I mean, the the time of war making,

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Speaker 5: of campaigning, as they used to say, is in the

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Speaker 5: summer and an early early fall. So if we can

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Speaker 5: expedite these these weapons to Ukraine, yes, I think that

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Speaker 5: they they could go on the on the offensive, and

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Speaker 5: it certainly would be a blow to Putin and the

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Speaker 5: narrative that that he's pushing is that all we have

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Speaker 5: to do is wait for the you know, the the

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Speaker 5: aid to stop, for Ukraine to fall into Rush's hands

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Speaker 5: like a ripe fruit.

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Speaker 3: So his best hope right now, Vladimir Putin's great hope

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Speaker 3: is that this funding does not pass.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, yeah, I mean that's a I think that they're

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Speaker 5: really they're really focused on it. Both Russia and Ukraine

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Speaker 5: are very focused on it. Ukrainian told me the other

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Speaker 5: day that the first thing that troops do when they

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Speaker 5: wake up in the morning is check their phones to

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Speaker 5: see if the funding has passed. And I'm sure people

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Speaker 5: in the Kremlin are paying his close attention to for

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Speaker 5: different reasons.

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Speaker 3: Seez Well, Ambassador, I'm glad you could join us, Come

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Speaker 3: talk to us again. Ian Kelly, Ambassador in Residence for

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Speaker 3: International Studies at Northwestern University, spend time as US Ambassador

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Speaker 3: to Georgia as well as the Organization for Security and

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Speaker 3: Cooperation in Europe. The voices of experience you can count

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Speaker 3: on here on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

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Speaker 2: then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty Breaking news.

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Speaker 3: You're from Washington. Glad you're joining us on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 3: on the satellite and on YouTube. We've got the text.

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Speaker 3: They just dropped the bill a couple of moments ago.

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Speaker 3: Our bills, I should say, having previewed this yesterday, we

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Speaker 3: told you there would be four separate bills, and here

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Speaker 3: they are. I'm looking at and appropriations, a committee summary

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Speaker 3: of what we've got here. We have a team pouring

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Speaker 3: through hundreds of pages right now in the newsroom, and

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Speaker 3: there is a lot here for Israel. The Security supplemental

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Speaker 3: totals twenty six billion dollars to support Israel in its effort,

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Speaker 3: it says, to defend itself against Iran and its proxies,

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Speaker 3: and to reimburse US military operations in response to recent attacks.

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Speaker 3: Four billion alone here to replenish the Iron Dome and

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Speaker 3: David Sling missile defense systems. Ukraine sixty billion there. It

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Speaker 3: is just like the President asked for, and we saw

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Speaker 3: it past the Senate. Sixty point eighty four billion to

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Speaker 3: address the conflict in Ukraine and assist our region partners.

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Speaker 3: It reads twenty three of that to replenish defense articles

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Speaker 3: and defense services provided to Ukraine. Another eleven billion for

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Speaker 3: current US military operations. That's before we send money to Kiev.

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Speaker 3: And then you've got into pack. This is Taiwan eight

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Speaker 3: billion to continue efforts to counter communists China, it says,

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Speaker 3: and ensure strong deterrence in the region. There is a

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Speaker 3: fourth bill that we're hearing about that would include a

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Speaker 3: divest or band TikTok that would include the REPO Act

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Speaker 3: and would also delineate whether this money to Ukraine would

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Speaker 3: come in the form of a loan. I'll let you know,

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Speaker 3: and we have our hands on that as we assemble

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Speaker 3: our panel with the news happening before our eyes. Rick

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Speaker 3: Davis and Genie Shanzeno with us Now Bloomberg Politics contributors.

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Speaker 3: Ricky managed to get the text out. It came out

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Speaker 3: a lot later than expected. But we're hearing talk of

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Speaker 3: a Saturday vote and a working weekend potentially for this Senate.

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Speaker 3: Can they get this done based on what you see.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that they certainly have the time to

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Speaker 6: do it.

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Speaker 8: It just depends on how hard they want to work

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Speaker 8: and how long into potential passover holiday week that they're

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Speaker 8: looking at, you know, And I do think it's going

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Speaker 8: to be close.

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Speaker 6: You're right, it's not a gimme.

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Speaker 8: The voting probably won't start until later in the evening

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Speaker 8: on Saturday based on the clock.

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Speaker 6: And they're going to allow amendments, which I think.

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Speaker 8: Is generous on the part of the speaker, which would

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Speaker 8: gum up the process a bit. That being said, once

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Speaker 8: they finish one bill, I can shoot over to the Senate.

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Speaker 8: They can act on that while they wait for the

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Speaker 8: second bill. So you can create a little bit of

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Speaker 8: a factory warehouse for legislation here and hopefully get it

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Speaker 8: done before the stroke of midnight. And I am quite

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Speaker 8: confident that the President would be more than happy to

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Speaker 8: spend the time next week signing these bills one by one,

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Speaker 8: since basically it's giving him exactly what he asked for

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Speaker 8: months and months ago.

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Speaker 3: It sure is over ninety five billion dollars here in

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Speaker 3: foreign aid Genie, just like the bill that passed the Senate.

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Speaker 3: A lot of conservative Republicans are upset we don't have

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Speaker 3: border provisions here. There's been talk about adding HR two.

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Speaker 3: When you step back and look at this, knowing that

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Speaker 3: they could have passed that bill the end of last year,

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Speaker 3: I believe when it came through the Senate. Remind me

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Speaker 3: of the timeline here if you will. But it's been

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Speaker 3: some time now. So they're going to get all the

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Speaker 3: money passed for Ukraine, Israel, Timewan and nothing on the border.

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Speaker 3: Is that right? Is that a win for Republicans?

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Speaker 9: Many of them don't think so, and I think they may.

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Speaker 9: I think we should underscore they may get all that passed.

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Speaker 9: I think the devil here is really in the details,

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Speaker 9: and people are right now starting to pour through these details.

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Speaker 9: So we have top line figures, but we have to

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Speaker 9: read down. Are there conditions on the aid for Israel?

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Speaker 9: What is the pay for is it pertains to Ukraine?

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Speaker 9: All of these things are going to matter. But you know,

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Speaker 9: Mike Johnson getting this out now with the seventy two

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Speaker 9: hour rule, he is really up against it because it

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Speaker 9: is going to be close if these pass and he

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Speaker 9: loses Mike Gallagher on Friday, and of course if you

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Speaker 9: have Marjorie Taylor Green and Massy, they just need one

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Speaker 9: more then to discharge and a simple majority to oust him.

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Speaker 9: And you look at the comments by some of the

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Speaker 9: people you know that we've heard from even in the

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Speaker 9: Senate today, Republicans who we didn't think would vote for

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Speaker 9: the bill but are sounding this alarm. Then you see

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Speaker 9: how tricky this is going to get for Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 9: So good for him for getting this out, but this

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Speaker 9: is not over by any means right now. And if

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Speaker 9: he wants to hold on to his job, that's still

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Speaker 9: a big question mark.

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Speaker 3: Well, we're going to get to that here, by the way,

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Speaker 3: Producer James, keeping me honest, this is ninety five billion.

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Speaker 3: The final tallly on the Biden supplemental was one hundred

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Speaker 3: and six billion. You saw the tweet here from JD.

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Speaker 3: Vance Rick. I know that obviously some Republicans are not

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Speaker 3: going to be happy. He calls this a betrayal. Though

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Speaker 3: rumored course of action in the House is before the

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Speaker 3: ten dropped, combined Ukraine and Israel with other Biden boondoggles

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Speaker 3: Senate to the Senate as a combined package. Then let

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Speaker 3: the House vote on a fake border policy package that

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Speaker 3: has no chance. He calls it stupid politics to boot.

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Speaker 3: How many jd vans As are there in the Senate, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: well there's.

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Speaker 8: Half a dozen, certainly, I doubt if not too many

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Speaker 8: more than that.

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Speaker 6: This has got.

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Speaker 8: You know, this the essence of this bill, as you

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Speaker 8: pointed out, the Senate bill, which was much much better

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Speaker 8: for conservatives than this current legislation that the Speaker is

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Speaker 8: putting down because it had a substantial and maybe historic

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Speaker 8: provision in there for the border. Talk about a missed

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Speaker 8: opportunity historically. But the bottom line is this is going

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Speaker 8: to pass overwhelmingly. The original bill passed by seventy percent

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Speaker 8: of the Senate. They're going to have just the same

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Speaker 8: kind of numbers for this bill. Of course, Genie's right,

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Speaker 8: you know, everyone's going to look inside. But these are

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Speaker 8: basically going to be the same titles and the same

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Speaker 8: bills that have been present on it already. I believe

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Speaker 8: the difference in the overall number, you know, the Preson's

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Speaker 8: bill being over one hundred million, probably relates to some

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Speaker 8: of the humanitarian funds, which I got to believe Republicans

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Speaker 8: at least had to think about before they stripped it

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Speaker 8: out of the bill, potentially, because you know, at the

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Speaker 8: end of the day, what's missed in all this discussion

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Speaker 8: of missiles flying over the air and whatnot is the

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Speaker 8: humanitarian crisis that exists on the ground there and other

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Speaker 8: places around the world which would have benefited from these funds.

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Speaker 8: So I hate being a republic on the side of

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Speaker 8: ignoring human rights and humanitarian crisises around the world. But

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Speaker 8: that seems to be part of what is going on

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Speaker 8: with the Republican Caucus and the House these days. So

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Speaker 8: they strip out humanitarian affairs, and they've said no to

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Speaker 8: substantial increases in border security, and so they're basically given

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Speaker 8: Biden a bill that looks much worse than what they

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Speaker 8: would have gotten from the Senate bill.

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Speaker 3: Isn't that remarkable and Ukraine had to wait a long

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Speaker 3: time for it is still waiting, Jennie, and there are

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Speaker 3: questions about whether it is too late. I guess we're

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Speaker 3: going to find out together here. But Mike Johnson could actually,

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Speaker 3: to your point, lose his job over all of this.

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Speaker 3: I know Marshay Taylor Green is making a lot of noise.

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Speaker 3: Tom Massey, He's been here before, ask John Bayinner. But

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Speaker 3: then there's you know, there's real question about whether the

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Speaker 3: conference has the stomach for this, and of course whether

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Speaker 3: Democrats will come to Mike Johnson's rescue, and a lot

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Speaker 3: of them say they will. Should he be worried about

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Speaker 3: getting fired this weekend?

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Speaker 9: You know, I think he has to be concerned about it.

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Speaker 9: We heard him come out yesterday. He you know, said

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Speaker 9: he is something like a wartime leader, you know, talking

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Speaker 9: about the Civil War and how this is how he feels.

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Speaker 9: So we know he's concerned. But you know, the reality

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Speaker 9: is a part of what we haven't seen yet. And

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Speaker 9: I'm waiting for that fourth bill to drop, and it

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Speaker 9: may have already. Is are there any poison pills in

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Speaker 9: here that move the Democrats out of this? You know

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Speaker 9: what they say is, you know, support provided there's nothing

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Speaker 9: there that would send them in the opposite direction. And

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Speaker 9: that's a big concern because if Mike Johnson is truly,

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Speaker 9: you know, focused on keeping his job and keeping his

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Speaker 9: caucus together, we might see some of that, and that

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Speaker 9: would be another wrinkle in this So far, I haven't

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Speaker 9: seen anything like that. I haven't even seen that fourth

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Speaker 9: bill yet, but that's something else to watch in the

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Speaker 9: next few miunutes, presumably if that fourth bill comes down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll keep you posted on that as we If

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Speaker 3: you're just joining us work through the legislation here on Ukraine, Israel,

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Speaker 3: and the Indo pack Taiwan TikTok bill appears to be

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Speaker 3: not out yet Genie Bill four, we're still waiting for text.

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Speaker 3: We'll let you know when we see that. Rick, I'm

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Speaker 3: supposed to ask you if Mike Johnson's going to get

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Speaker 3: fired this weekend, but we don't know that. Does Mike

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Speaker 3: Johnson even know that.

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Speaker 8: I don't think Mike Johnson has any idea what's in

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Speaker 8: the minds of Marjorie Taylor Green and some of her buddies.

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Speaker 8: You know, that's that's hard to be predictive of of

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Speaker 8: that legislator.

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Speaker 6: But I think you know you described it right.

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Speaker 8: I mean, he's probably got the backing of the Democratic Caucus,

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Speaker 8: probably not exactly what he wants, but it means he's

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Speaker 8: still speaker. I mean, maybe they call the question on

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Speaker 8: the on the motion of the vacate, but I think

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Speaker 8: the vote is going to be overwhelmingly pro Johnson. I

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Speaker 8: don't think the Democrats are going to hang him out

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Speaker 8: to dry like they did McCarthy. And and so we

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Speaker 8: may be talking about this next week. Maybe it's the

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Speaker 8: last thing on the agenda Sunday night, stay up late, folks,

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Speaker 8: get the popcorn ready. We could see some fun in

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Speaker 8: the floor of the House. Uh and and and yet

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Speaker 8: all that said, we'd wake up Monday morning and nothing

437
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 8: has changed.

438
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,959
Speaker 3: Wow. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano in the Clutch.

439
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ketch

440
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on fo.

441
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 2: Car Play and then Roudo with the Bloomberg Business app

442
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

443
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

444
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 10: I am Kayley alongside Joe in Washington, where all the

445
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 10: lawmakers are as well. Right now in the House digging

446
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 10: through the text of the bill. The three bills rather

447
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 10: that we just got doing that work. Just down the

448
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 10: street on Capitol Hill, and of course on the other

449
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,959
Speaker 10: side of Pennsylvania is usually where you would find President

450
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 10: Biden Joe, but today that is not where he is.

451
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 10: He's not at the White House. He's in Pennsylvania. He's

452
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,679
Speaker 10: got a bit of an announcement in regard to steel tariffs.

453
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 3: He's moving back. I saw yesterday. This is a three

454
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 3: day tour of God's Country for Joe Biden. He's talking tariffs.

455
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 3: Today's actually meeting with steel workers today, with union workers

456
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: in Pittsburgh. As he, I guess, tries to match Donald

457
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 3: Trump on this one, because Donald Trump's ready to slap

458
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 3: what was it, sixty percent tariffs everything. He's on everything.

459
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 3: He's of course talking about the Nippon steel deal, trying

460
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 3: to get traction in a group that frankly has preferred

461
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 3: Donald Trump in the past.

462
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 10: Yeah, he's definitely trying to court the union vote on

463
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 10: the one hand. On the other hand, Joe, I wonder

464
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 10: if this is just more evidence that, frankly, in terms

465
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 10: of protectionist policy, Joe Biden and Donald Trump may be

466
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 10: a lot alike, because, as you allude to, Trump, already

467
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 10: during his administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. Those

468
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 10: didn't go away under Biden. He's kept a lot of

469
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 10: these tariffs in place and now is actually thinking about

470
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 10: expanding them.

471
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an interesting dichotomy for this president. Of course,

472
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,479
Speaker 3: he pitches himself as the most union friendly president in

473
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 3: American history. I suspect that we will hear that later

474
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: on today, and we should tell our listeners and viewers

475
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:39,959
Speaker 3: that we actually expect Joe Biden to be speaking. He's

476
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 3: scheduled to start later this hour. We're going to bring

477
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 3: you some of his remarks if he gets to it

478
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 3: on time. And preparing as well to sign these three

479
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: bills next week, assuming they pass. Kaylee, But we wanted

480
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: to stick on the campaign trail here in this conversation

481
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 3: between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with the help of

482
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 3: Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor. Three days in Pennsylvania, Well,

483
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: I believe Donald Trump spends four this week in court.

484
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 11: Yes, right, that's right.

485
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 3: That's working out pretty well for the president.

486
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 11: This is a real nice split screen for him to have.

487
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 12: He can go to Pennsylvania, you know, a place he

488
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 12: was born there, he's very comfortable and talked.

489
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 11: To steel workers.

490
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 12: You know, when you look at both Trump and Biden's

491
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 12: you know, policies here, they're very close when it comes

492
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 12: to when it comes to these policies, they you know,

493
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 12: both want tariffs. You know, it's important to note that

494
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 12: this policy today is much more symbolic than it is actual.

495
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 12: You know, a lot of the Trump tariffs have already

496
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 12: killed a lot of the Chinese imports. But this is

497
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 12: a warning shot to China saying, look, we are going

498
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 12: to go after your your shipbuilding industry, your metal industry.

499
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 12: And we've already seen China react and issue a very

500
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 12: sternly worded response.

501
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 11: Yeah, as you probably would expect China too.

502
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 10: That's typically how things go in this relationship on all

503
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 10: matter of issues. Then there's also the consideration here that

504
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 10: obviously we spent most of last week talking about the

505
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 10: nip on steel in the US steel deal as the

506
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 10: Japanese Prime Minister was in town at the White House.

507
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 10: It seems like these policies are all really about the

508
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 10: union at the end of the day. Right, Sure, there's

509
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 10: the national security consideration in there that is often brought up,

510
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 10: but really this is a union friendly president going out

511
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 10: to court the union workers. We saw that in the

512
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 10: case of the UAW, and now it's the United steel

513
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 10: Workers who are maybe getting the special focus.

514
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 12: If you will, Yes, I mean, and this is really

515
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 12: about courting not just the union worker, but the union voter,

516
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 12: where it has been a very powerful, you know, voting

517
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 12: organization for the president going back. You know, you mentioned

518
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 12: earlier that he doesn't necessarily have the support from the

519
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 12: rank and file.

520
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 11: Union member, but he does from the organization.

521
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 12: He's gotten endorsements from the United Audit Workers, from the

522
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 12: United steel Workers, and he's gotten a lot of money

523
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 12: from them as well.

524
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 11: So this is all important.

525
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 12: And the sort of the hope is, okay, if we

526
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 12: can have sort of the top level endorsement and then

527
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 12: embrace policies that they like, you know, meeting with them,

528
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 12: you know, opposing this deal that would be potentially send

529
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 12: jobs overseas, maybe that's a way to reel in votes.

530
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 12: And you know, in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin,

531
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 12: this those blue wall states, Biden really just needs to win,

532
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 12: you know, every one thousand vote. Here are their accounts,

533
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 12: because it's going to be you know, it's gonna be

534
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 12: a ten thousand dollars margin netsmall.

535
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 3: I started by referencing the fact that Donald Trump is

536
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 3: in court for days a week. Is this new schedule

537
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 3: going to motivate Joe Biden to travel more over the

538
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 3: next six to eight weeks knowing that Donald Trump cannot.

539
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 12: This is certainly a key motivation, particularly on those days

540
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 12: when when Donald Trump is in court. You've already seen

541
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 12: his strategy in the courtroom start to play out. We

542
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 12: saw him go to a bodega yesterday after a court appearance.

543
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 12: He you know, got in the car head uptown, you know,

544
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 12: was able to talk about crime and immigration and some

545
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 12: of his key you know, focuses there. So that's you know,

546
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 12: you're going to see the sort of the strategy play

547
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 12: out as both both Biden and Trump are figuring out,

548
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 12: you know, how can they capture uh, you know, the

549
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 12: attention of the media.

550
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 10: Yeh, all right, Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor, thank you

551
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 10: so much.

552
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 11: I got to go back to a bodega this week

553
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 11: in New York as well. I don't miss that much

554
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 11: about New York. But the bagels, the pizza.

555
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 3: It looks like r element in front courthouse after it. Man,

556
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 3: if people forget Joe Biden in the last campaign was

557
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: doing these drive ins. Yeah, it was the middle of

558
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 3: COVID yet the big white circles, remember, and the people

559
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 3: would honk instead of clapping. This is in many ways

560
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 3: the first campaign of its kind.

561
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 11: Yeah, very different.

562
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 3: The body the re election campaign is the more traditional one.

563
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:21,959
Speaker 10: Yeah, we're in a very different place now than we

564
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 10: were four years ago. And certainly that's true as we

565
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 10: are now emerged from a pandemic. But a lot has

566
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 10: changed geopolitically as well. Is there are now two hot

567
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 10: wars European continent, one in the Middle East to the other.

568
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 10: And there's many questions around the path forward for the US.

569
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 10: Perhaps though we got a bit more clarity from Congress

570
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 10: today is we do now have the release texts of

571
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 10: three separate bills that would help fund Ukraine, Israel, and

572
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 10: the Indo Pacific. We could see a vote in the

573
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 10: House on Saturday. The question is is all this coming

574
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 10: just a little bit too late? And that's a question

575
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 10: We now post to Jane Harmon, who is joining us

576
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 10: once again here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. She is

577
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 10: the chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy

578
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 10: and of course a former congresswoman from California, Congressoman. Always

579
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 10: great to have you here on Bloomberg. So, assuming that

580
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 10: all of this goes according to plan, this passes the

581
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 10: House on Saturday, the Senate is able to pass it

582
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,959
Speaker 10: as well and send it to President Biden. Is it

583
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 10: going to actually turn into something tangible for Ukraine?

584
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 11: Just a bit too late?

585
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 7: Well, it is late, but it's not too late. It

586
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 7: is sooner than it could have been. But there are

587
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 7: a couple of wrinkles here. These are separate bills, and

588
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 7: I'm not sure if they're amendable. If they're amendible and

589
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 7: there's mischief on the House floor and the dollar numbers

590
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 7: change and other baggage is added, it may be hard

591
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 7: to reconcile them with the Senate bill. I'm hoping that

592
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 7: alongside all of this there may be some effort at

593
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 7: a discharge petition to discharge the exact language of the

594
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 7: Senate bill so it can also be voted on. I

595
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 7: think it would be passed overwhelmingly and then there would

596
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 7: be no conference and this would move to Biden immediately.

597
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 7: Sure where this sends up, but the good news is

598
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 7: finally Speaker Johnson figured out he needs to do the

599
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 7: right thing, and he needs to understand that people are

600
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 7: dying in Ukraine right now as we do there, so

601
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 7: that's good. I also think Israel needs the aid, and

602
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 7: obviously we have to send strong signals about defending Taiwan.

603
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 7: One other point here that worries me, and that is

604
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 7: this fourth bill. Where is that going? I think some

605
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 7: aspects of it are fine, but some may be of concern.

606
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 7: And finally, the border provisions are not included in the

607
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 7: House bill. What an irony. These are the border provisions

608
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 7: that most members Republican members of the House want, so

609
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 7: why are they leaving them out?

610
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 3: Well, that's why I'm getting confused, Jane, and I figure

611
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 3: you can help me understand, because there was a bill,

612
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 3: of course, that passed the Senate. It had everything that

613
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 3: we're looking at here, plus an historic compromise between conservative

614
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 3: Republicans and I think we can call them centrist democrats.

615
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: Go ahead and call them liberals if you want. But

616
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 3: my god, Jim Langford was at the table here. Now.

617
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 3: I know that the House wanted HR too, but that

618
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 3: probably wouldn't have worsened the situation at the border. Right,

619
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 3: So why again, was this better than that?

620
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 1: Well?

621
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 7: It isn't better than that. But what it is is

622
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 7: it's a way to try not to give President Biden

623
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 7: any credit. It's doing the wrong thing so as not

624
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 7: to give Biden any credit. And I if that makes

625
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 7: sense to you, it doesn't make any sense to me.

626
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 3: Sometimes I need to be pulled in off the ledge

627
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: a little bit here. But Kaylee, well earlier, yeah, well

628
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: I understand. But if you look at comments from jd

629
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: Vance and others, this, even if this goes smoothly in

630
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: the House, it could get complicated next door.

631
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 7: Yeah.

632
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 10: Especially it is the United States Senate we're talking about,

633
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 10: where you need unanimous consent to do anything quickly, and

634
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 10: there may be some who are very reluctant to allow

635
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 10: things to happen in an expeditious manner. One of the issues, though, Jane,

636
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 10: that jd Vance has raised is around repo, which is

637
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 10: one of those things that maybe in that fourth bill

638
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 10: that you were alluding to, tied together with a bunch

639
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 10: of other things, including the banner de vestiture Bill of

640
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 10: TikTok On this idea of taking those frozen Russian assets

641
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 10: and using it to help fund the war effort in Ukraine.

642
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 10: Is this something that is actually going to work in reality,

643
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 10: knowing frankly it would need buy in from other partners

644
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 10: in all likelihoods, since a lot of this is actually

645
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 10: held on the Cotten end of Europe.

646
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 7: Answer is no, it's not going to work without buy

647
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 7: in from Europe. Most of the seased assets are in Brussels.

648
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 7: Five billion or so three to five billion is in

649
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 7: the United States, which is not nearly enough money. And

650
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 7: there is an argument, although some lawyers are defending using

651
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 7: these seased assets now, there's an argument that it could

652
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 7: be counterproductive and add to Ukraine's debt and mess up

653
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 7: Ukraine's ability to leverage funds from the IMF in other places.

654
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 7: There's another idea about just using interest on these assets,

655
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 7: which apparently everybody would agree to. But I don't think

656
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 7: it's enough money at any rate. I'm fine with discuss

657
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 7: this thing, and I'm fine with some of the other

658
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 7: things in this additional package. But what I'm really wanting

659
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 7: is the Senate pass bill to be passed in the

660
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 7: House so there's no conference, no more mischief, and Biden

661
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 7: can sign it on Saturday night. Let's understand has been

662
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 7: said before. These are the equipment that's going to Ukraine

663
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 7: is ready to ship. It's produced in the US. The

664
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 7: money that we're providing is paying for replenishment of that equipment.

665
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 7: In fact, some of that equipments in Europe. So Ukraine

666
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,959
Speaker 7: will get relief almost immediately. I was just there two

667
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 7: weeks ago, and what I saw was Ukraine is able

668
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 7: to produce low cost drones, more advanced drones, tanks, et

669
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 7: cetera for its use. It's doing that now. But they

670
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 7: don't have advanced anti jammy equipment and they don't have

671
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 7: air cover. And those are the two things that will

672
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 7: help them win the war and help their people from

673
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 7: not die further, and help them from shrinking the border.

674
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 7: They are, as President Zelensky said to our press fairly recently,

675
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 7: they're cutting the line, meaning they're reducing the area they're

676
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 7: able to defend because they don't have one five five

677
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 7: am imagine that, and they don't have the other things

678
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 7: I just mentioned. It's shameful, and thank goodness, Speaker Johnson

679
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 7: has gotten the message.

680
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 3: Well, they're not going to show up anytime soon either.

681
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 3: A lot of this stuff needs to be made still

682
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 3: after the moneys are allocated. Jane Harmon, if you're still

683
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: in Congress, would you vote to protect Mike Johnson.

684
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 7: Let's see what he does. I would vote to end

685
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 7: the chaos, and that's something that's the call of the

686
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 7: Democrats who will have to save him. If this ridiculous

687
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 7: rules changed agreed to by Kevin McCarthy stays in place,

688
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 7: I would vote to change the House rules and go

689
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 7: back to the old way of doing this where it

690
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 7: takes a majority in order to try to remove to

691
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 7: vacate the Speaker's office. I think this is insane, But

692
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 7: what I'm saying is, you know, it ain't over till

693
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 7: it's over. And let's see if this goes smoothly this week,

694
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 7: and let's see if they hold the Senate numbers, and

695
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 7: let's see if there's a possibility of actually passing the

696
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 7: Senate bill in the House through a discharge petition or

697
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 7: some other procedural change. It's not what Johnson is recommending

698
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 7: right now, but just maybe some Republicans will step up

699
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,280
Speaker 7: and help sign this discharge petition and that will get legs,

700
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 7: and that would save us all and save the Ukrainians

701
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 7: from a lot more tragedy.

702
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 10: Jane, just given how difficult this effort was, considering this

703
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 10: effort still is not over, knowing we're getting closer and

704
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 10: closer to an election and there is no end in

705
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 10: sight for this war between Ukraine and Russia. Is this

706
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 10: going to be the last opportunity for the US to

707
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 10: provide aid? Is this not going to only get harder

708
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 10: as this conflict goes on.

709
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 7: It's going to get harder. And as the election season increases,

710
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 7: and the disinformation by Russia, you know, which is influencing

711
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 7: some members of Congress, increases, and Ukraine's position weakens. I

712
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 7: can see an argument, well, they you know, they can't

713
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 7: do it, so let's let's focus elsewhere. I think that

714
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 7: is heinous and shameful. And let's understand that if Putin

715
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 7: wins in Ukraine, he moves right on into Europe. He's

716
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 7: basically said that, and it emboldens China with respect to you,

717
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 7: to Taiwan, and it emboldens Iran with respect to the

718
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 7: Middle East, where it is not abiding by any rules.

719
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 7: The world is as messy as it has ever been.

720
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 7: US leadership is needed more than ever. If Ronald Reagan

721
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 7: were alive, he would be talking about just what I'm

722
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 7: talking about, which is robust support for freedom in the world.

723
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 7: Against these enemies who want autocracy and want to take

724
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,399
Speaker 7: away freedom for their citizens and for all the rest

725
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 7: of us.

726
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 3: Always great to have time with you, Jane. We thank you.

727
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,240
Speaker 3: Jane Harmon, Chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy,

728
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 3: of course, former Congresswoman, with straight talk today from our

729
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 3: nation's capital. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

730
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

731
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 2: Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

732
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: then ron Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can

733
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

734
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

735
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,959
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and the Capitol. We've

736
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 3: had quite a bit of breaking news since we came

737
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 3: to air less than two hours ago, with text released

738
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 3: on three spending bills Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. We're waiting

739
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 3: for a fourth now, or at least details we know

740
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: that it's in the formulation here will likely include a

741
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 3: TikTok divevest or band measure. Kaylee their talk about the

742
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 3: Repo Act, which would actually help to pay for Ukraine

743
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 3: funding by way of seized Russian assets, and there could

744
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 3: be Iran sanctions in there as well. Now, instead of

745
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 3: one big vote like we saw in the Senate, this

746
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,359
Speaker 3: is going to be four separate votes in an assembly line,

747
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 3: I think. Is how Rick Davis talked about this. In

748
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 3: a best case scenario, you pass it in the House,

749
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 3: you get it going immediately in the Senate. Otherwise they're

750
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:24,399
Speaker 3: going to take a lot of time.

751
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 10: Of course, this vote isn't going to happen until Saturday

752
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 10: at the earliest because members need seventy two hours to

753
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 10: read all these various pieces of legislation, So that is

754
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 10: definitely true. For our next guest, Republican Congressman from North Dakota,

755
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 10: Kelly Armstrong, is joining us now live from Capitol HILLISO. Congressman,

756
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 10: I'm not sure how in depth you've been able to

757
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 10: get into the text of this legislation yet, but from

758
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 10: the headlines, from the outline that we have gotten, the

759
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 10: reaction we're seeing already from some of your colleagues, is

760
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 10: this going to work?

761
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 11: Will the rule pass?

762
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,280
Speaker 13: I don't know. I don't think we have enough Republican

763
00:40:58,360 --> 00:40:59,959
Speaker 13: votes for the role, just from what I can follow

764
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 13: from my colleagues on social media right now. But I

765
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,280
Speaker 13: mean the Speaker's made the play. We're going to move forward.

766
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 13: I think the problem with how our rule votes have

767
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 13: gone so far this Congress is it's a little bit

768
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 13: like skipping school. It's hardest the first time, gets a

769
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 13: little EA is here the second time, and now we're there.

770
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 13: But I mean, we'll get our first answer in the

771
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 13: Rules Committee and then we'll see when we get on

772
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 13: the floor.

773
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:27,439
Speaker 3: Well, okay, got it. Your own impressions, though, Congressman, I'd

774
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 3: love to hear because these three bills that we've seen

775
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 3: at least look a heck of a lot, like two

776
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 3: thirds of the Senate bill that passed, and I know

777
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 3: is considered DOA in the House. What we do not

778
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 3: see here is any language on the border. And I

779
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 3: know that many conservative Republicans thought that did not go

780
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 3: far enough. But to have nothing in this package, is

781
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 3: this a raw deal for Republicans?

782
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 13: Well, I think the border is the number one issue

783
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 13: in every district across the country. I think it's the

784
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 13: number one issue I hear from my constituents. Sounds like

785
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 13: they're going to bring a second rule with a second

786
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:00,919
Speaker 13: border bill. I mean, we're going to have an open

787
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 13: amendment process, which I think is important. You can fully

788
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 13: expect it to see some pay for amendments from conservatives here.

789
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 13: But again, it all comes down to what the rule

790
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 13: looks like, what the actual underlying text is we're going

791
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 13: through at my office right now. And then so you

792
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 13: have threefold. You got to give everybody a chance to

793
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 13: read it. You've got to have you got to pass

794
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,359
Speaker 13: the rule, you have that opportunity for amendments. And then

795
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 13: I guess the fourth one, we got to keep everybody

796
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 13: here until Saturday night.

797
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I guess there's a question of not just

798
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 10: whether or not people will be in town through Saturday,

799
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 10: which it does indeed appear will happen, but frankly, what

800
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 10: would happen after the votes are actually cast, specifically to

801
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 10: the speaker himself. Congressman Mike Johnson obviously is facing now

802
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 10: a motion to vacate threat not just from your colleague

803
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 10: from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Green, but Tom Massey. Potentially others

804
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 10: could move against him as well. Are we about to

805
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 10: see history repeat itself? What is the odds right now

806
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 10: that he falls to the same fate as Kevin McCarthy

807
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 10: did those months ago.

808
00:42:59,000 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 3: I don't.

809
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, I don't know so much about odds,

810
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 13: but I know math. I mean, by the end of

811
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 13: by probably Monday and next week, we're gonna have a

812
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 13: one vote majority for a short period of time until

813
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 13: some of these specials come around and we get Ohio

814
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 13: back in here, in California back in here. And so

815
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 13: if two people bring it, I mean I just would.

816
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 13: I would tell each and every one of my colleagues

817
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 13: I went through that fifteen week thing in October. I

818
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 13: don't think anybody, for as good as Mike, as hard

819
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 13: as Mike is, trying for as good a man as

820
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 13: he is, I'm not sure anybody thinks it's better now.

821
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 13: And more importantly, I'm not really entirely sure on our

822
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 13: side who would take the job if this works again.

823
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 3: Well, that is part of the problem here, although we

824
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 3: understand Tom Emmer might be in the running if it

825
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 3: gets that far, and god knows, the Majority Whip has

826
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 3: a lot of work to do here over the coming days.

827
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 3: One thing that did take place in the House that

828
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 3: we can actually get our arms around, Congressman, is the

829
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 3: impeachment of the Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Majorcis, who was

830
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 3: back in your House of Representatives to testify to the

831
00:43:57,000 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 3: President's budget proposal yesterday. The articles of impeachment have been

832
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 3: sent over to the Senate, where we're told there will

833
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 3: be no trial, that this will be quickly dismissed or

834
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 3: die a quick death through some legislative maneuver. After the

835
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,919
Speaker 3: time that you spent in the House on this, what's

836
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 3: your message to Senators?

837
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 13: Well, I think a lot of the senators on my

838
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 13: side the Aisle would like a robust debate. I mean,

839
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 13: the Secretary of Mayercus has made a conscious decision not

840
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 13: to follow US law that has directly impacted people as

841
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 13: far away as the state of North Dakota. But I

842
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 13: mean I take a different view of this. We can't

843
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 13: ever control what the Senate does. They can't control what

844
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 13: we do. The best we can do is do our work.

845
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,360
Speaker 13: I think Mark Chairman Green did a great job of

846
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 13: laying out the reasons why this is important. We give

847
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 13: it over to them, and I wish they would take

848
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 13: it and give it to gravitas it deserves. But again,

849
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 13: I can't control what happens over there.

850
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 10: Well, and even sir, if you were to see the

851
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 10: Senate impeach my Orcus, which I think we all know

852
00:44:56,760 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 10: is highly unlikely to happen at this point. What reason

853
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 10: do you have to believe that a future Biden administration

854
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 10: Homeland Security secretary would do anything differently? The administration's policy

855
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 10: wouldn't change just because one secretary was impeached.

856
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 13: Well, I mean, and that was always debate on our

857
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 13: side as well, and I think for the most part

858
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 13: that is exactly accurate. Your point is is the person

859
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 13: who's in charge is who you go after. But I

860
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 13: think in this specific case is somebody who's worked on

861
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 13: the Immigration Subcommittee since I got here in Congress in

862
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 13: twenty eighteen, and actually did this work as a lawyer

863
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 13: before I got here. When you make a conscious effort

864
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 13: and specific efforts as the secretary of that agency to

865
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 13: not follow the law, it's worthy of that. You know,

866
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 13: we've heard a lot about his first time it's happening

867
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 13: over in one hundred years. Well, I would argue that

868
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 13: this is the worst secretary we've had in over one

869
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 13: hundred years.

870
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 3: Well, as the Mayorkas impeachment resolves in the Senate, here, Congressman,

871
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 3: there is the matter of Joe Biden's impeachment proceedings, not

872
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 3: in a formal sense, but the hearing that have been underway.

873
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:06,280
Speaker 3: He has chosen not to accept oversight Jim Comer's invitation

874
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 3: to testify, and in the letter letting him know that

875
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 3: the White House Special counsel said, your impeachment investigation is over.

876
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 3: Is the White House right?

877
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 9: Yeah?

878
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 13: I mean no, I don't think they are right. I

879
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 13: think that's the letter your lawyer writes. I used to

880
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 13: write those lawyers letters to opposing lawyers as well. Eventually,

881
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 13: Chairman Jordan and Chairman Comer are going to have to

882
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 13: make a decision. The one difference about these investigations versus

883
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 13: the way they work out in the court system is

884
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 13: you run up against a time clock. They're going to

885
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 13: continue to try and give this I still think we

886
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 13: should be working very hard to get the audio from

887
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 13: Special Prosecutor hers President Biden talking to his ghostwriter. I

888
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 13: think all of those things. But eventually they're going to

889
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 13: have to say, do we continue to fight for this

890
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 13: information or do we wrap it up, write a report

891
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 13: and let the Republican Conference make a decision. And that's

892
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 13: a chairman decision based on the time clock.

893
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 10: Congressman, of course, is there is much to discuss in

894
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 10: terms of domestic paul, including our own borders. There is

895
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 10: a lot happening geopolitically, which is what a lot of

896
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,760
Speaker 10: this legislation that has been introduced, at least the text

897
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 10: of today, is meant to address the various wars we

898
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 10: are seeing that US allies are engaged in, including in

899
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,280
Speaker 10: the Middle East, as we're still awaiting a potential response

900
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 10: from Israel in retaliation for the strike we saw Iran

901
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 10: conduct over this past weekend. I'm wondering how concerned you are,

902
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 10: knowing that you sit on the Energy and Commerce Committee

903
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 10: about what may happen in the Middle East and what

904
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 10: the ramifications of that could be on energy prices and

905
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 10: other things. What is your degree of concern?

906
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 13: Well, my first degree of concern is with our closest ally,

907
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:41,439
Speaker 13: maybe not just in the region, but in the world,

908
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:45,280
Speaker 13: as Israel and their right to defend themselves against surrounded

909
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 13: by hundreds of millions of people that quite frankly want

910
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 13: to wipe them off the planet. But I mean, just

911
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 13: coming into this break before my segment, you had WTI

912
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 13: down two dollars a barrel. At any other time in history,

913
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 13: if there was a hot war with Russia and conflict

914
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 13: in the Middle East. I think it's safe to say

915
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 13: that oil would be over one hundred and ten dollars

916
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 13: a barrel at this point. It is not, and the

917
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 13: reason for that is because of American oil and gas

918
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 13: production and shale plays like in my state in North Dakota.

919
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 13: So my longer term actual concern on the energy prices

920
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 13: is sixteen a pause on sixteen, LGX sports, a tailpipe

921
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 13: e mission, clean air acts that are coming through out

922
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 13: of this administration, which I mean, we're producing as much

923
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 13: oil in North Dakota as we ever have, but these

924
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 13: are long term subsequent problems that will decrease our ability

925
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 13: to produce and transport oil and natural gas in five

926
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 13: years seven years, and it seems like a conscious effort

927
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 13: from this administration to do just that.

928
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 3: Well, it's an interesting time to be talking here a Congressman,

929
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,280
Speaker 3: and we appreciate you being so generous with your time.

930
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 3: After this is done, whether this is an up or

931
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 3: down on Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, this is sort of a

932
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:54,839
Speaker 3: fit of lawmaking that we're going to see potentially here

933
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 3: in the next couple of days. Because it's a campaign year,

934
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 3: because of how well thin the Republican majority is in

935
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,760
Speaker 3: the House. Are we done after this as the store closed?

936
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 13: Well, I hope not. I hope we can get a

937
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 13: farm bill done. It's incredibly important to the citizens in

938
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 13: North Dakota. We're going to start obviously the twenty twenty

939
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 13: five appropriations process, but I mean, you all know this.

940
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 13: I mean, this isn't unique to twenty twenty four. The

941
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 13: massive legislation always slows down the closer you get to

942
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 13: an election. But we're going to when we get through

943
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 13: this set of things, I know our office is going

944
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 13: to be concentrated on figuring out how to get a

945
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 13: farm bill across the finish line.

946
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,799
Speaker 10: It's an important reminder that there is still work to

947
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 10: be done. I guess there's a question of how expeditiously

948
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 10: that can happen. Congressman, thank you so much for joining

949
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:42,959
Speaker 10: us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

950
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 11: We appreciate your time today.

951
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 7: Sir.

952
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 10: That was the Republican Congressman from North Dakota, Kelly Armstrong,

953
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 10: and of course Joe. It's not likely that we're going

954
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:51,839
Speaker 10: to see votes on the farm bill for some time,

955
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 10: as it took just this long to figure out the

956
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 10: supplemental question around funding for allies, and that vote will

957
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,280
Speaker 10: happen on Saturday, and I guess we'll see what happens

958
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 10: to Mike Johnson as a consequence, that's for sure.

959
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 3: And it's you know, the Farm Bill. Of course, it's

960
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 3: not a shocker for the at large representative North Dakota

961
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 3: to bring that up. But it's of course involving a

962
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 3: lot more than agriculture, with the vast majority of funding

963
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 3: in the Farm Bill going to food stamps. That's how

964
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 3: the SNAP program is funded. So that's an across the

965
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 3: board sort of impact when it comes to cities, when

966
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 3: it comes to farmlands across the country. And boy, we've

967
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 3: barely started talking about that. This is day to day

968
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: or in the case of today, hour to hour. Here, Kaylee,

969
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 3: we still don't have a fourth bill yet.

970
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 1: Do it?

971
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 11: No, not at this point. We'll wait for the text

972
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 11: of that.

973
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 10: We know likely what is going to be in that,

974
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 10: but we're still parsing through all of the details. You go,

975
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 10: So thank you for joining us as we do so

976
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 10: from here in Washington.

977
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

978
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or

979
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

980
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:01,399
Speaker 3: live every weekday from Washington, d C noontime Eastern at

981
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com