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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 1: There were running again? So smoothe so sweet Standard sixteen

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Speaker 1: just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 4: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying. The love is left to of

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Speaker 3: the wide eyed, drilled fibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hillary one and welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting

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Speaker 5: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee

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Speaker 5: buff and joining me for an other handicapping adventure Anthony

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Speaker 5: Dbundo and bj Cunningham. Together three of us will take

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Speaker 5: you through all ten matches upcoming Super Bowl weekend in

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Speaker 5: the Premier League. We'll talk the rest of Europe to

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Speaker 5: Bundesliga Lagas here all that fun stuff. Will wrap up

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Speaker 5: the show with our favorite underdogs. Tell you what the

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Speaker 5: underdog parlay is three legs. I think it's around sixty

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Speaker 5: two to one. I'll have to calculate the prices as

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Speaker 5: we go here and then give our best bets for

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Speaker 5: the upcoming Premier League slate over this weekend. The only

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Speaker 5: football that matters in my mind this weekend is the

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Speaker 5: football in Europe. And just a reminder, Champions League returns.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, con obviously, yeah that's true.

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Speaker 5: Champions League also returns for the knockout stages on the

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Speaker 5: thirteenth of February, so we'll be back in your ears

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Speaker 5: on Monday morning previewing that that s late. We'll give

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Speaker 5: some big picture betting takeaways for the knockout rounds. But

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Speaker 5: let's get into this Premier League slate here. We'll start

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Speaker 5: with a seven thirty am kickoff between It's a title

37
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Speaker 5: race six pointer if you ask me, City minus five

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Speaker 5: point fifty at home Everton traveling at twelve to one,

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Speaker 5: draw here.

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Speaker 1: Seven to one Evertt.

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Speaker 5: It's been pretty good against City under Pep Guardiola, even

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Speaker 5: when they were managed by Frank Lampard. They were finding

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Speaker 5: ways to get points and probably deserve better results and

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Speaker 5: City over their past few stretches, some some bad var decisions,

45
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Speaker 5: et cetera have gone against them. Who knew Everton are

46
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Speaker 5: the only team without a penalty this year, by the way,

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Speaker 5: in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: Truly wild Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Born myth.

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Speaker 3: I'm finally getting one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's myth.

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Speaker 2: I think I believe it's chelseare Liverpool out the most

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Speaker 2: right now?

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Speaker 5: Weird right, it was weird the Islanders and the only

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Speaker 5: team in the NHL without an empty net goal too,

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Speaker 5: So just just been strange.

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Speaker 2: They're doing for you. I think, Yeah, a lot.

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Speaker 5: Of fun we got Patrick wwass, So I'm excited. I

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Speaker 5: think that there's a way to bet this match and

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Speaker 5: have a lot of fun without playing the Everdon money line.

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Speaker 5: It's a little scary because of like just how thin

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Speaker 5: the squad is and even against Spurs, like they just

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Speaker 5: they just seem dead on their feet for the last

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Speaker 5: few minutes and they do they do tie that match up,

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Speaker 5: and I thought they played it pretty well. They played

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Speaker 5: that match all right. But I'm gonna play either Everdon

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Speaker 5: first half money line or maybe take a shot on

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Speaker 5: an eighteen to one of Everdon first half City full time,

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Speaker 5: because I do think that there is an opportunity here

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Speaker 5: for Everton to to maybe score first whatever. That's the

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Speaker 5: way I would attack it, but I don't. I just

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Speaker 5: don't think they'll be able to hang with City throughout

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Speaker 5: the full ninety and we just saw that with City

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Speaker 5: BJ their their last game when Phil Foden ran away

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Speaker 5: with it. So that's that's what I'm looking at here.

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Speaker 5: Anything for you Everdon in City.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a couple of bets. I like evertson

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Speaker 2: plus two minus one ten and I like both teams

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Speaker 2: to score, which you can get at plus one oh five.

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Speaker 2: I know Everton for stretches against Toddham didn't look that great.

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Speaker 2: There was you know, kind of an uncharacteristic defensive lapse

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Speaker 2: right at the beginning of the match that allowed with

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Speaker 2: Charleston to tap one home, but outside of that, tapp

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Speaker 2: in Toddham really didn't create much after that went in.

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Speaker 2: I mean they only got one to expect a goal

86
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Speaker 2: in total for the match. That shot the next year

87
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Speaker 2: rating up point five to two. And it comes down

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Speaker 2: to what you know, we've been talking about a lot

89
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Speaker 2: over the course of the season is that Everton is

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Speaker 2: an elite team out of possession because of their ability

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Speaker 2: to not only defend in a low block which excuse me,

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Speaker 2: a midlock, which they were very very active and effective

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Speaker 2: with it, forcing the ball out wide against Tottenham, but

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Speaker 2: also when they fell behind. They also have the ability

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Speaker 2: to press high and cause a lot of problems. Everton

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Speaker 2: is number one now in the Premier League, and high

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Speaker 2: turnovers forced like that is in and of itself for

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Speaker 2: a team that has historically been a mid to low

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Speaker 2: block is pretty remarkable. Just also kind of goes to

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Speaker 2: show you how good they are playing both of them.

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Speaker 2: They've also allowed the fewest big scoring chances of anybody

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Speaker 2: in the Premier League. So I think this is City

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Speaker 2: being vastly overvalued. You know, everybody's obviously back for City,

104
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Speaker 2: so I think everybody's just kind of penciling them in.

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Speaker 2: Is already winning the title because they have to bring

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Speaker 2: them back. Holland is now healthy. I'm not so sure,

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Speaker 2: especially given this price. I mean, City they haven't really

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Speaker 2: been blowing everybody out like they have been in the past,

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Speaker 2: and I get it to Brown has been out for

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Speaker 2: half the season, but they've only won three Premier League

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Speaker 2: matches by more than two goals. And Everton, you know,

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Speaker 2: by my ratings, is the ninth or tenth best team

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Speaker 2: in the Premier League. So for them to be laying

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Speaker 2: two full goals against them, I know it's at home

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Speaker 2: and everybody's healthy but this is this is really high

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Speaker 2: for City. I mean, even in the previous meeting they

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Speaker 2: had a penalty, they scored from outside the box and

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Speaker 2: eventually created two point four expected goals, but two non

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Speaker 2: penalty shots one point six non penalty expected goals without

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Speaker 2: a big scoring chance, Like it really wasn't that dominantive

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Speaker 2: a performance from City. So I like Everton plus two.

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Speaker 2: I think that City is vastly overvalued. I think there

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Speaker 2: should be a flat minus one and a half and

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Speaker 2: I like both teams to score as well, because I

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Speaker 2: think Everton is very dangerous on the counter and City

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Speaker 2: has shown some vulnerabilities defending in transition.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I largely agree about at least part of it. Right,

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Speaker 3: my number on this, I'm pretty low relative to the

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Speaker 3: market on the City attack. But I think I'm just

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Speaker 3: missing on the fact that everybody's back because if they're

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Speaker 3: going to play Fodeen Alvarez, Silva, Katie b and Holland

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Speaker 3: like good Luck, I don't care who the defense is

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Speaker 3: good Luck and that's just reality. Like the market's inflating

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Speaker 3: them here, and I agree with that. But Brentford was

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Speaker 3: able to get at this defense, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: something that is a choice that Guardiola's clearly made here

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Speaker 3: where you saw it in the Newcastle game, and you

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Speaker 3: saw it in the game against Brentford, where teams are

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Speaker 3: able to get one on one opportunities running at their

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Speaker 3: back line, teams are able to break through because remember

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Speaker 3: last year, City didn't really attack with numbers. They kind

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Speaker 3: of kept most of their team back and then just

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Speaker 3: let you know, three or four attackers cook because Grealish,

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Speaker 3: Holland and de Bruna were so good that it kind

145
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Speaker 3: of and half of Mares were good enough to like

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Speaker 3: just wreck teams and win everything, and they were so

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Speaker 3: defensively solid. But this year, at least with the recent lineup,

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Speaker 3: would suggest that Pep is kind of turning up the

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Speaker 3: throttle now. And I think the result of that is,

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Speaker 3: you know, Brentford got eighteen touches in the Penaltaria Cities Penaltaria.

151
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Speaker 3: They had a full over one xg and Rodri is

152
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Speaker 3: like the only real ball stopper in the team. Even

153
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Speaker 3: guardi Ole got into the Penaltaria for five plus touches,

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Speaker 3: as did Rodri. So if you're pushing your left back

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Speaker 3: up the pitch, you're pushing two midfielders who primaries role

156
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Speaker 3: you know, kdb, Foden, Silva, all these guys pushing up,

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Speaker 3: there's nobody to laught to defend, so I think there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be space for Everton on the break. It's not

159
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Speaker 3: ever pretty with Everton, like you said, BJ Like, it

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Speaker 3: doesn't ever look like they're playing well even when they

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Speaker 3: are playing well, and I thought that was evident in

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Speaker 3: the Spurs match. But they're still gonna get their chances

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Speaker 3: here if City plays the same lineup, which I expect

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Speaker 3: them to. I mean, there's no reason to not play

165
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Speaker 3: the lineup that they played against Brentford, in which they will.

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Speaker 3: They you know, they go down early, but the game

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Speaker 3: was never really in doubt. Like Flecken stood on his

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Speaker 3: head in the first half and then some shots went

169
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Speaker 3: in and they ended up getting five different players with

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Speaker 3: three shots plus. That's insane, and that's you know against

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Speaker 3: the Brentford defense that like isn't as good as it

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Speaker 3: usually is, but like still decent. So I think there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be major problems for them defending, but I think

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Speaker 3: they I think they get one. So Everton first half

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Speaker 3: team total plus two thirty we're gonna run it back

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Speaker 3: and brent Everton team total over to a half is

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Speaker 3: minus one ten. Somebody messaged me in the discord, why

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Speaker 3: don't you just take the both teams to score. It's

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Speaker 3: essentially the same bet, but there is no more of

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Speaker 3: a chance of City getting blanked in the market suggests there.

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Speaker 3: I think, just like they get soccered. So I took

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Speaker 3: the team total. But like, yeah, Everton wins one, now

183
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Speaker 3: that would surely be something. But I don't disagree either

184
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Speaker 3: with well you said Leeboff, which is just like Everton

185
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Speaker 3: might at a hot start maybe get a set piece goal,

186
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Speaker 3: but it doesn't feel like they have the juice to

187
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Speaker 3: go the full ninety here to pull this off.

188
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Speaker 1: Yep.

189
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Speaker 5: So that's seven thirty am. We'll jump ahead to Villa

190
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Speaker 5: and Man United. Try to highlight some of the bigger

191
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Speaker 5: games off the top here. Villa is plus one fifteen

192
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Speaker 5: at home, United traveling at plus two ten, and the

193
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Speaker 5: draw here is plus two seventy five. You know what, though,

194
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Speaker 5: Like I know it was pretty ho hum against west

195
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Speaker 5: Ham On over the weekend for United, but I think

196
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Speaker 5: we should just start looking at this team as if

197
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Speaker 5: they're just kind of box office. They're just no idea

198
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Speaker 5: how any match is gonna unfold that we didn't get

199
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Speaker 5: to really talk about the game against Wolves Becau as

200
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Speaker 5: we recorded on on Wednesday to look ahead of the weekend,

201
00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,520
Speaker 5: and that game, of course was just off its rocker.

202
00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,120
Speaker 5: And I feel like United, once every few matches, plays

203
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Speaker 5: these insane games, and the last time that they played

204
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Speaker 5: Villa that was one of them. Like they just end

205
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Speaker 5: up with these insane you know, back and forth kind

206
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Speaker 5: of comebacks everywhere style, and I think Villa is kind

207
00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,920
Speaker 5: of conducive to that because of the high event soccer

208
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Speaker 5: they played for most of the season.

209
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Speaker 1: I'm good.

210
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Speaker 5: I don't really hate United here, Like I don't think

211
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Speaker 5: that the price is all that bad to go to

212
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Speaker 5: go with our boys here, bja, your boys man United,

213
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Speaker 5: who are four wins, four losses and two draws in

214
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Speaker 5: their last ten in the Premier League with a minus

215
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Speaker 5: one goal differential, thirty one total goals thirty one total

216
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Speaker 5: expected goals, Like they're playing some crazy stuff.

217
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Speaker 2: Mm hmm. I actually really like Villa here. I think

218
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Speaker 2: this is not a great matchup for interest, you know,

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Speaker 2: because if you go back to that previous meeting, what

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Speaker 2: happened was as Villa went up early off of two

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Speaker 2: set piece goals and then they just kept playing a

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Speaker 2: high line and they allowed Manchester United. The one thing

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Speaker 2: that they're kind of good at is getting runners in

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Speaker 2: behind with Brashford and Garnet show and they punished Villa

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Speaker 2: over and over again, and they came back and they

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Speaker 2: won three to two. What was encouraging about aston Villa

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Speaker 2: when they played an FA Cup match against Chelsea is

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Speaker 2: you know, the book's kind of out on Chelsea as well,

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Speaker 2: like if you play a high line against them, they

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Speaker 2: will get in behind you and they will cause problems.

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Speaker 2: And Chelsea destroyed aston Villa in the FA Cup today

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, but they played a little block against them

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Speaker 2: in the first meeting and it kind of stifled Chelsea

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Speaker 2: and they didn't really have many avenues to get into

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Speaker 2: the box and create a lot of big scoring chance.

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Speaker 2: It's really the only big chances that Chelsea had in

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Speaker 2: that match were off mistakes and build up from aston Villa.

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Speaker 2: And that's something that's been happening a lot recently with Villa,

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Speaker 2: and I think it kind of boils down to the

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Speaker 2: fact that Pale Torres has been out for six seven

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Speaker 2: matches now on the bench against Chelsea, He's coming back

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Speaker 2: hopefully starting for this match, which is massive for aston

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Speaker 2: Villa and their build up going up against a Manchester

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Speaker 2: United team that, let's just say is flawed out of possession.

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Speaker 2: Like quite frankly at this point in the season, they

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Speaker 2: don't have a pressing structure that works, especially against Wolves.

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Speaker 2: They kept trying to press with all of their attackers,

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Speaker 2: but none of the midfielders or fullbacks were coming up

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Speaker 2: to aid and help in the press. So Wolves just

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Speaker 2: had one outlet ball and there you go, transition attack,

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Speaker 2: Neto's running at you and then they obviously cause a

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Speaker 2: lot of problems. You know, it's gonna be with Alessandra Martinez.

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Speaker 2: He came back for two matches and they look great

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Speaker 2: in build up and he makes such a big difference

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Speaker 2: for them. Well now he's out, gonna be out to Moruch,

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Speaker 2: I believe for late March, and without him, it's kind

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Speaker 2: of got to go back to the same thing with

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Speaker 2: Manchester United, where if they try to build up, it's

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Speaker 2: probably not going to be that great. You know. Manu

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Speaker 2: and Casamiro is a double pivot is fine, Like it's

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Speaker 2: not it's not great, but I mean it's not like

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Speaker 2: you know, but it's it's perfectly fine. Casimiroz that clearly

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Speaker 2: lost a step though, But man, it has been fantastic.

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Speaker 2: But I just don't see it. I think Villa's going

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Speaker 2: to be able to build out of this pretty easily

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Speaker 2: through Manchester United's press, and you know, United, once you

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Speaker 2: beat that first line of the press, like I said, like,

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Speaker 2: they don't really have much to stop you going forward.

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Speaker 2: I mean they're allowing over one more and a half

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Speaker 2: non penalty XG per ninety this season. And it kind

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Speaker 2: of goes also back to the fact that you know

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Speaker 2: the famous stat of United not being able to be

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Speaker 2: very good against it. You know, elite opponents away from

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Speaker 2: home think they've taken what one point and how long?

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Speaker 2: However long it's been, so I have Villa projected a

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Speaker 2: minus one twenty three. They're at home, They've been almost

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Speaker 2: unbeatable there. They have a plus ten point eight expect

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Speaker 2: a goldfferential. I like the value on them at plus

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Speaker 2: one ten.

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Speaker 3: I don't. I don't have an answer for this Villa team.

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Speaker 3: I really don't. I mean, I think BJ made a

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Speaker 3: good point about Torres being out that hurts. Kamara was

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Speaker 3: terrible today. I thought he kind of cost them big

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Speaker 3: time concerts now down for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 3: It looks like, uh, there's just all kinds of red

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Speaker 3: flags with Villa. It feels like we're like they're getting

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Speaker 3: no market respect though, like you said, BJ, like I

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Speaker 3: can't bet United at this number at all given the

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Speaker 3: underline numbers. The underline numbers, just saying that these two

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Speaker 3: teams are about even the rest of the season. If

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Speaker 3: you had to bet who would get more points BJ

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Speaker 3: rest of the year Villa are United? Who would you

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Speaker 3: take Villa? I think I would. I don't even like

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Speaker 3: Villa that much. So that's.

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Speaker 2: The price.

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Speaker 3: The price you're not getting it. You're not getting a

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Speaker 3: great price on United because the market thinks Villa is

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Speaker 3: a total fraud and almost undervalueing them. We had this

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Speaker 3: discussion a couple of weeks ago. But they did, you know,

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Speaker 3: lose two Newcastle three nail they lose to Chelsea and

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Speaker 3: the Cup three one. They did do some rotating. No, no, Denia,

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Speaker 3: he's down as well, so that they're pushing the limit

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Speaker 3: of what right, what what we could really get out

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Speaker 3: of them. But I just can't get over how overrated.

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Speaker 3: I think it's Villa defenses and I think they're to

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Speaker 3: leak more goals. I think that's probably where this leads to.

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Speaker 3: I could see this being very back and forth because

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Speaker 3: I think both defenses really stink, and I don't think

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Speaker 3: it's all that different from the first meeting. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Villa's set piece defense is a problem. United set piece

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Speaker 3: defense is a major problem. So like, set pieces are

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Speaker 3: gonna be big. I know BJ had some did some

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Speaker 3: stuff on corners, the.

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Speaker 2: Worst least efficient team on corners this season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they've been a disaster on set pieces too. So yeah, Villa,

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Speaker 3: like that's there been one of their biggest weaknesses defensively.

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Speaker 3: But their other biggest weakness is like, Okay, there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot of space in behind, and I think

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Speaker 3: that's gonna be still the same thing for this, Like

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Speaker 3: Fernandez is gonna be on the pitch, He's gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to ping balls to gar Nacho and Rashford. Rashford

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Speaker 3: very streaky player. He's found form and he's been he's

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Speaker 3: been very good the last month out of kind of nothing,

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Speaker 3: his traditional run that he seems to go on this

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Speaker 3: time every year. Uh, and he's scoring goals and contributing.

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Speaker 3: So I just I want a bed Villa, but I

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Speaker 3: also don't so I'm going to pass here, but certainly

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Speaker 3: like it's Villa or nothing for me at the current number,

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Speaker 3: I don't have enough market respect for United, who played

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Speaker 3: probably their best half of the season against Wolves and

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Speaker 3: then followed up with just a complete inability to hold

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Speaker 3: the lead, and then the west Ham game, like they

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Speaker 3: west Ham missed the sitter to tie it. United comes

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Speaker 3: down on the counter, goes up to now and it's like, oh, okay, sure,

335
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 3: but they didn't actually play all that well outside of

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Speaker 3: like a couple of deflections. They went their way like

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00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:31,200
Speaker 3: the total underlying metrics were clearly west Ham's game. So

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Speaker 3: I just I'm not going to upgrade them off of

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Speaker 3: a fifty to fifty game against an overrated west Ham.

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Speaker 2: Second time that United as being a Premier League team

341
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Speaker 2: by more.

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Speaker 3: Than one goal, Yes this season, second time they're outplayed

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Speaker 3: in the game as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, game for being the other time?

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Speaker 2: Right, Oh of course I know the other time.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, Fulham and Born with up next Cottagers

347
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Speaker 5: plus one thirty seven here at home Born with traveling

348
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Speaker 5: place and the draw here is plus two fifty. We're

349
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,360
Speaker 5: kind of getting back to I guess like you could

350
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,480
Speaker 5: stamp this match if you have been listening to us

351
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Speaker 5: live late, Like I feel like we're it's not that

352
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Speaker 5: we're we think Fulham stink, but they're not that good right,

353
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Speaker 5: and I think we would put Bourne Myth ahead of

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Speaker 5: them at this point.

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Speaker 1: Rabul him and as.

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Speaker 3: He's been all right though, oh he's out now.

357
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Speaker 1: Yeah, now he's hard. So who scores now? I don't know.

358
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Speaker 5: I think there's way too many pass to a Boorne

359
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,159
Speaker 5: Myth upset on the road here to not take a

360
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 5: shot on plus one eighty.

361
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Speaker 3: So I say, very interesting is happening with Fulham though

362
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,840
Speaker 3: b JA and their defense is kind of good now,

363
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 3: isn't it? Do I believe it? Not really? But here's

364
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 3: something fun. So I was I was kind of thinking

365
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 3: about the league and I was like, okay, we know

366
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 3: there's three really good teams, like a clear gap between

367
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,160
Speaker 3: the top three and everybody else. And then every team

368
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Speaker 3: between like four to eight to nine doesn't play any defense.

369
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,359
Speaker 3: That's just the new prem that's why there's been so

370
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 3: many goals like Spurs don't play defense, Brighton don't play defense,

371
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Speaker 3: Newcastle doesn't play defense, United can't defend. Villa like we

372
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Speaker 3: talked about them enough, like they're probably the best defense

373
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Speaker 3: of them all, and like they're not that could either.

374
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 3: Chelsea had a brief run where they played defense, but

375
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Speaker 3: now they don't. So I have some numbers here since

376
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:27,640
Speaker 3: I took out penalties since November twenty seventh, so since

377
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 3: December right around like the Festive fixture starting the top

378
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: five defensive teams in the Premier League by expected goals allowed. Liverpool,

379
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 3: Arsenal City are the three obvious ones. Who do you

380
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 3: think the other two teams are?

381
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 2: Since when?

382
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 3: Since November twenty seventh, it's about November seven, ten matches,

383
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 3: so about half the season.

384
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Speaker 2: Well, I'm guessing Fulham's gonna be one of them.

385
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 5: Conversation, and Brentford's been decent. Nope, not two, not Everdon.

386
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 3: Not Everton. Everton was sixth or seventh.

387
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 5: Does say just please, don't don't tell me any more

388
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:03,439
Speaker 5: good stuff about Everden?

389
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 1: The answer, Yeah, that's defensive team.

390
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 3: And it's not even that fluky. I mean, it's like

391
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,160
Speaker 3: one point one for Fulham and one point eight for Bournemouth.

392
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:13,480
Speaker 2: Uh.

393
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 3: And it's not like schedules either. I looked at the

394
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 3: schedules Fulham have played Liverpool and Arsenal. Since then, Bournemouth

395
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 3: have played Liverpool and Spurs, so like they've played real

396
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 3: games and their defenses have held up. Now. I said

397
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Speaker 3: the same thing last week where I was like, Fulham's

398
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:27,959
Speaker 3: attack is kind of a mess.

399
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 5: Uh.

400
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 3: They they get Broja on loan now, so like maybe,

401
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 3: but like I don't know. They have this weird thing

402
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 3: with Brosia where he's incentivized to play and Fulham have

403
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 3: to pay more for the loan if he doesn't play,

404
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:44,439
Speaker 3: which is like a really fascinating thing. Like it's like

405
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 3: they have to play him to get him minutes and

406
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 3: if he doesn't play, they, oh, Chelsea more money. It's

407
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 3: like the inverse of how it usually works. But yeah,

408
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 3: I mean these two defenses are trending up. I don't

409
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 3: know what to do with it because the Fulham defense

410
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 3: has always been the same. It's like, oh, like Paulinia

411
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 3: is good, Pereira is pretty good. Like the forwards press

412
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Speaker 3: and then in the like they would just give up

413
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 3: a bunch of big chances out of nothing, but now

414
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,919
Speaker 3: they're not, like they've kind of cut those down. I

415
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 3: know now that I'm saying this, they'll probably fall off again,

416
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: but like all the teams. Of all the teams whose

417
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 3: defenses have just taken a complete ship in the last

418
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 3: three months of soccer, Fulham has been one of the

419
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 3: few that hasn't.

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00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 5: And even the last two games, though they haven't been crazy,

421
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 5: I feel like I feel like the last two games

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00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 5: they haven't been all that sound.

423
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 1: I know that they help. They held everything.

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Speaker 3: They choked against Burnley for.

425
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Speaker 5: Sure, and they held evert in to clean sheet. So

426
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Speaker 5: it sounds bad, but everything should. I mean, that was

427
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 5: the second time that everything yeah, so yeah, I don't know.

428
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,159
Speaker 3: That brings me to my point, which is that I

429
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 3: am very tempted by the under Oh gosh, I'm so

430
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 3: tired of it. I just I don't want to do

431
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 3: it anymore. It's just not just never safe. Like it

432
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 3: got bad because it was I had an under two

433
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 3: and a half and there was one goal after like

434
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 3: seventy five minutes. This was Germany, so not quite the same.

435
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 3: And I'm sitting there like just thinking, like I know

436
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 3: this game's going over, Like it's just gonna go over.

437
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 3: It's gonna go over, It's gonna go over. I checked

438
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 3: a live odds on like minus twelve hundred. I'm like

439
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 3: as should I head like eight to one over two

440
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 3: and a half. Uh, it's just I mean I can't

441
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 3: inst insane eight overs last week in the prem and

442
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 3: then that Arsenal game man that broke me spiritually. So

443
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 3: I think I think the total is too high. I do,

444
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 3: but I don't really want to put the under. So

445
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 3: that's where I'm at now. If you have the stomach

446
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 3: for it, join me. Two and a half it's creeping

447
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 3: to three. If it got to a flat three, that's

448
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 3: just ridiculous. I'm sorry these two teams they've been defending

449
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 3: the last month two months too high.

450
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: Well, I like born with here. I think it feels

451
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: kind of obvious, right because I don't really think that

452
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 2: Fulham should be really a home favorite. And you mentioned

453
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: the fall offense. Well, here's some stats to back it up, Anthony,

454
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 2: on how kind of poor they've been, only averaging one

455
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 2: point one three nine penalty actually for ninety so far

456
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: this season, second fewest penalty box touches of anybody in

457
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: the Premier League, worst final third to box entry conversion

458
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 2: rate in the Premier League, and in the last six

459
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 2: matches they have not created a big scoring chance. So

460
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: there you go. It's been really bad offensively, So does

461
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 2: bro should change that? I don't think so, at least

462
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,439
Speaker 2: not right now. Maybe he gets more minutes and his

463
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 2: feet under him and whatever system they want to play

464
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 2: with him. It could happen. But you know, Bournemouth really

465
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 2: destroyed Fulham in the previous being it was yeah and nothing.

466
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 2: Fulham did not register a shot with an xgurating over

467
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 2: point one and Bourne myuth. I mean, the hybrid press

468
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 2: under Yaril has been awesome. It's been clicking on all

469
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 2: cylinders since so November eleventh when they beat Newcastle was

470
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: probably the first time that we could say holy cry

471
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 2: up like Bournemouth. They actually looked really good since that point.

472
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 2: The third best passes per defensive action in the Premier like,

473
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 2: behind only Liverpool and Arsenal. So that's how good their

474
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 2: press has been. They're really I mean, that's honestly how

475
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: they're creating most of their chances. It's just like they

476
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: they win the ball high, they do one pass to

477
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 2: Slanky and just puts it home. He's been in a

478
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: great finishing run. Most non penalty goals this season dom

479
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 2: Dominic Slonkey. So uh, this is is Bournemouth attack is

480
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: pretty good when they can force these high turnovers. In Fulham,

481
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 2: you know they have tried at times to play out

482
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 2: of the back and it's been a disaster. So then

483
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 2: I have this match rejected like pretty much literally as

484
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 2: a dead pick them. So Bournemouth John Obatt plus one

485
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 2: ten is good enough for me.

486
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 3: And I remember you talk about the last picture because

487
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 3: I almost bet the I like Bourne myth and I

488
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 3: don't really play favorites and unders because it's just too

489
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 3: much like one bounce and you lose both and whatever,

490
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: but I should value on that under too. It was

491
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: two and a half. I remember the game and it

492
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 3: was like nil nil, nothing happened for a half hour.

493
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,239
Speaker 3: Bournemouth got one right before half a great run by

494
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 3: Scott the Cliver one. No, I'm like, okay, And I

495
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: was looking at the live hun there because I was like,

496
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 3: this game is gonna shut down. Then they gave away

497
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: a really stupid pen and then Sinisteria hit a stoppage

498
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 3: time banger and there was like two total XG including

499
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 3: the pen, and it still went over. Like That's just

500
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 3: how the season is this year, and it's very frustrating.

501
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 3: But I mean, I think this total is too high.

502
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 3: There's plus one fifteen out there on the under two

503
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 3: and a half and it's like just staring at me.

504
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 5: Okay, A tough one for Anthony. Over the weekend, he

505
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 5: loses the podcast Darby to bj Arsenal as Arsenal runs

506
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 5: rampant over Liverpool. Liverpool looking to bounce back. They're a

507
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 5: huge favorite at Anfield Burnley, traveling at fourteen to one.

508
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 5: The draw here is seven to one. It feels like

509
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 5: a situation where you could just Liverpool can name the score, right,

510
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 5: It just just just feels that way. But the scary

511
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 5: thing there is that you're gonna be paying for that, right,

512
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 5: Like it's just that's gonna be too stint. But do

513
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 5: you just keep it's simple stupid here?

514
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 1: Anty?

515
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 3: I mean, is there a less interesting team to talk

516
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 3: about week the week?

517
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 2: Yeahfield.

518
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 5: What's funny is like they we we they we had

519
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 5: a great hook on them coming into the year. Like

520
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 5: is this kind of high risk, high reward style going

521
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 5: to translate? Well, it was very clear that it didn't.

522
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: We haven't had against them enough.

523
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, we just had Yeah. Yeah, I did tell that

524
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: against Fulham.

525
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 5: Uh in what they were like four to one against

526
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 5: Fulham and yes, I think those are the only times

527
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 5: you can even consider them when they're playing uh pretty

528
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 5: you know, mediocre pedestrian side and they're getting a huge number,

529
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 5: because otherwise it's you're asking just way too much out

530
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 5: of a team that I tell me how they win

531
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 5: this game, Like, how do they tell me how they

532
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 5: even keep this thing competitive with without just conjuring up

533
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 5: a uh a goalkeeper standing on his head, a penalty,

534
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 5: red cards and yeah, there's no there's no gas, black magic,

535
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 5: black magic or nothing here in the numbers.

536
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: High minus two and a half minus one ten at

537
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 3: home against Burnley and they should have covered it, really.

538
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: And they fell asleep at the end.

539
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then now it's like two and a quarter.

540
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, Like you want to bet Burnley

541
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 3: have fun, I'm just not gonna do it. I'm not

542
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 3: gonna be either. I'm I'm certainly not laying two and

543
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: a half. But if you like Liverpool chase the number. Maybe, Yeah,

544
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 3: I think we pissed off Clop.

545
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: It looks like Nuna's I mean, is gonna start.

546
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 3: It looks like you will. Yeah, off they have next

547
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: week off, Like there's no.

548
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 5: You want if you want like to squeeze, like a

549
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 5: little more value out of like a super Bowl prop

550
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 5: or something you can play like Liverpool might just wanted

551
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 5: a half part laid with something I don't I.

552
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 3: Don't see the path Liverpool will probably do for a

553
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 3: game where they outplay somebody badly and don't get all

554
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 3: the points they've only had. It really happened once all year,

555
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 3: Looten game, but I was away from home. This is like,

556
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 3: I don't knows anfield. I don't do bets against Liverpool.

557
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 2: I am. I am showing a liberal value on the

558
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: under nice as we were recording. I just looked it

559
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 2: up because I was just curious of what the actual

560
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: goals to x G overall in the Premier League has

561
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 2: been this season, and it's actually pretty close. Seven hundred

562
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 2: and three goals off of six hundred and ninety six expected.

563
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, like the whole league is running hot. It's just

564
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 3: the whole league now, just the Bundesliga.

565
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 2: Yep, exactly, but yeah, only projecting three point two goals

566
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 2: one hundred three and a half even money technically would

567
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 2: have value, but good luck, I'm not doing that. BJ.

568
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 3: Do you know who the most profitable team to the

569
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 3: under is? We talked about this last week. I don't

570
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 3: think I mentioned the totals, but there's the most profitable

571
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 3: under team in the PREM according to our Action Labs

572
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 3: database despite their game going over last week.

573
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 2: Is it Liverpool?

574
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 3: It is Liverpool. Yeah, Liverpool's most profitable under team and

575
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 3: the most profitable over team Burnley one guest, and you

576
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 3: should get it if you know me. No, second guess now,

577
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: because you should think about it. My favorite bet wolves pod.

578
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,640
Speaker 1: Wolves Wolves, Oh, Wolves.

579
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: The most profitable to the PREM to be.

580
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: Over year one year, one year earlier and Wolves overs Yeah.

581
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 2: And then we never is what we do. We come

582
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 2: in a year early and then we never profit off

583
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 2: anything that we actually.

584
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 1: Listen to the podcast one year backdated. So let's you

585
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: want to be.

586
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 5: Listening to this in twenty twenty five when we're talking

587
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 5: about uh yeah, you know Evertt in top six and

588
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 5: whatever in the Championship.

589
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 2: Oh gosh, that's gonna.

590
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 3: I'm moving to now Lester next year we're Leicster.

591
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Michael the the Everton Man City Race in

592
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: the Championship. Next season's going to be electric exactly.

593
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: Uh, no chance.

594
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 5: Honestly, I think this is the match of the weekend.

595
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 5: In terms of betting perspective, and the stakes are quite

596
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 5: high too. If if you want to give Sheffield United

597
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 5: enough credit that the season isn't over, but I don't

598
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 5: think yeah. But look, if they're going to do anything,

599
00:28:58,720 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 5: it's going to have to be in this one. And

600
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 5: I think the number is just way too high in

601
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 5: Loutontown and I know they're at home and they're this gutsy,

602
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 5: gritty team. They're fun to watch because they just leave

603
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 5: it all out there. They're ball just bouncing around the

604
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 5: eighteen yard box all game, both eighteen yard box.

605
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: The crowd is great, the fun story. We love it.

606
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 5: Sheffield United is brutal minus forty goal differential, but a

607
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 5: minus twenty five expected goal differential on the season. You

608
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 5: look at their last ten matches, one win out of ten.

609
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 5: Not very good last time I checked. But it shouldn't

610
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 5: be this bad. It just should not be this bad.

611
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 5: Twenty five goals against a nineteen expected and a whopping

612
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 5: eight scored on just around thirteen expected goals four Loutontown

613
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 5: the other direction, they've scored twenty on right around fourteen

614
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 5: and have conceded nineteen over their last nine games. It

615
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 5: was over in that span, so this is since December. First,

616
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 5: I'm not like I get that Sheffield Knight has proven

617
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 5: themselves to be worse than Lutontown, and I think that

618
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 5: there are some even some motivational angles you can look

619
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 5: at here to make a case for Luton as well,

620
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 5: Like I think you can say Sheffield might be just

621
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 5: on the beach already knowing the season's over and Lutontown

622
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 5: is scrapping for every second of every game. This number

623
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 5: is too high, BJ, this number is just just too.

624
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: I agree hit as high and they've liveden that like

625
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: minus one twenty, so you can make a go obviously

626
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: a case here for Sheffield. They've been much more aggressive

627
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 2: under Chris Wilder and trying to play more attacking football

628
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 2: instead of just sitting in a lowle block and playing transitionally.

629
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 2: But the problem doing that is the worst defensive team

630
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: in the Premier League and the Villa. It was so

631
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 2: simple against them. It was basically just like one or

632
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: two passes and then boom, like it was a ball

633
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: onto Watkins goal. And you know they did it again

634
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: and again and again and again ended up punting five nothing.

635
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 2: I don't know how I'm not playing both teams to

636
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 2: score here. Honestly, Sheffield United the biggest thing with Lowton.

637
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 2: Why have they gotten to this point or why do

638
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 2: they even have like a shot to get out of

639
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: the relegation zone. It's because they are an elite team.

640
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 2: On corners and putting on the ed acrosses. They do

641
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 2: this thing they call a back post overload, where they

642
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 2: just stick three four guys on the back post against

643
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: you know, usually it's the opposing teams fall back a

644
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: smaller guy and they just throw alley oops up there

645
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: all uch long entry and put it in. They've did

646
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 2: it against Newcastle, They've done it. They did it twice

647
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 2: to Brighton and Sheffield United as a very shaky goalkeeper

648
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 2: who was going to go out on loan because they

649
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 2: thought they were going to get a different goalkeeper in

650
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 2: and turns out that didn't work out. So he's standing

651
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: there in net knowing that they were trying to replace him.

652
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: Very bad at defending these corners, and Sheffield United has

653
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 2: allowed the most expected goals off of course this season.

654
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 2: So uh, that's a terrible matchup for for Loutontown. But Loutontown,

655
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 2: I mean they're bad. In transition, she saw that against

656
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: Newcastle just how badly and how much you can rip

657
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: them apart. And well Sheffield United playing you know more

658
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 2: on the front foot's trying to get going forward because yeah,

659
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: like you said, Michael, like it's probably over, but they're

660
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,239
Speaker 2: going for it, like they're not just gonna sit back

661
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: in their low block and just get beat. Every single

662
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: match Ditsch took over everything like.

663
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 4: Exactly, you know, and guess what, they should have absolutely

664
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 4: beaten Loutontown in the previous meeting, like they dominated them

665
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 4: and Lootontown luck boxed their way to a three to

666
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 4: two win.

667
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 2: But that was the highest exgy output that they from

668
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 2: a non penalty perspective that Sheffield United has had this season.

669
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 2: So both teams of score sitting around minus one forty,

670
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: I'm projecting it a little bit north of minus one fifty,

671
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: so I'll probably be on both teams to score, Like

672
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: I don't really see a scenario, and I really feel

673
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 2: like this is going to be very back and forth,

674
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 2: and especially once that first goal goes in. I mean,

675
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: this match more than anything's probably a pretty game state dependent.

676
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: It's going to create a very back and forth match.

677
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: So I do love both team to score at minus

678
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: one forty.

679
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I talked about the top five defenses since

680
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: December started. All right, bottom five defenses since December started.

681
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 3: You want to try to guess who the worst is Newcastle,

682
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 3: that's pretty obvious. You want to gets who the second worst.

683
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: Is Manchester City.

684
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 3: It's Luton Town and you've probably heard, you know, like

685
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 3: you know, the discussions are starting. Can they stay up?

686
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: They might actually stay up. Everton and Forrest better be

687
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 3: in trouble. Palace is in trouble.

688
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 2: Since I like these conversations, last eight.

689
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: Hundred ish minutes, no pens, no reds included. Sheffield are

690
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,959
Speaker 3: giving up one point six x g P ninety, right

691
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: next to Tottenham and United. More on them later. Luton

692
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 3: are giving up two point one, so almost a half

693
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 3: goal more, and they're way worse defensively since Water took over.

694
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 3: Luwton is way worst defensively since Water took over. Then

695
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 3: Sheffield and I think you're at the top of the

696
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 3: market here on Luton, the line look ahead was plus

697
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 3: one fifteen. Now it's minus one thirty. There was a

698
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 3: huge swing, Like, I don't really agree with it, so

699
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take a shot here.

700
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it just makes it. It makes sense later, it

701
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: makes sense.

702
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 5: It makes sense on the surface, right you look at

703
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 5: the last three for for Sheffield United shipped five to

704
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 5: Brighton in the FA Cup, ship three to Palace and

705
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 5: then got drubbed by Villa five nil. But I don't

706
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 5: know this is uh. They've got a couple of winnable

707
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 5: games coming up. I think you can if you want us,

708
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 5: throw Brighton in there. But it's like Luton Town Wolves.

709
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 5: This is I think it won't be enough to keep

710
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 5: them up. But I think this is the the uh,

711
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 5: the bounce, the bounce back here.

712
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 2: Spot.

713
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 1: I think this number. You know what I said.

714
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 5: One more thing I want to say before passing it

715
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 5: back to BJ is that I said this about the

716
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 5: Liverpool line that oh. I said that, like if if

717
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 5: you want to take Liverpool minus one and a half

718
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 5: and throw it on a on a super Bowl prop

719
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 5: to juice up the price, and because the logical thinking

720
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 5: there is you want to take a first leg that

721
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 5: you think has a pretty good chance of winning. But honestly,

722
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 5: if you want to build yourself something that will give

723
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 5: you a great sweat, I don't think it's a bad

724
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 5: idea to take this price where it's a plus three

725
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 5: seventy five, and then parlay it with your favorite Super

726
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 5: Bowl bet to really juice it up. Because this this

727
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,280
Speaker 5: line made this this could be my maybe my favorite

728
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 5: money line of the season.

729
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 2: Here, I agree, and honestly, money line hang over if

730
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: you want to chase over three and a half, maybe

731
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 2: over even over four and a half. But I don't

732
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 2: think that's a bad play at all, because, like I said,

733
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: like even in the previous meeting, it was incredibly back

734
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 2: and forth where it's just like somebody scored and then

735
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 2: like all the other team panics, like we're behind, we

736
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: got to go for it. And you know, both these

737
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 2: teams especially you know when they are when they are ahead,

738
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: like yeah, they're okay defending in a low block and

739
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: everything like that, but as soon as they go behind,

740
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 2: it's like, oh my gosh, what are we gonna do?

741
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 2: And then all chaos because like askin viel it wasn't

742
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: really doing anything up until when they scored. And then

743
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: they scored, and then Sheffield's like, oh crap, like we

744
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 2: got to start pressing them, and they pushed everybody forward

745
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 2: to try to high press them, and it was just

746
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: two like simple balls Luise toa Watkins and then it's

747
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: like oh and then it just happens again and again

748
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,399
Speaker 2: and again. So the snowball effect has has big time

749
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: effects here in this match. So yeah, maybe maybe a

750
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 2: Sheffield Well let's see if we can build a like

751
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: Sheffield United money line over three and a half and

752
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 2: one more thing to see if we can really your.

753
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 5: Favorite to your favorite super will bet toss it up there.

754
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 5: You could be the person at the party that says, oh, yeah, like,

755
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 5: I'm holding one hundred to one on exactly on Priest

756
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 5: Holmes to win Super Bowl MVP because I bet I

757
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 5: liked it with I liked.

758
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,479
Speaker 3: It to the Sheffield Night thousand and seven.

759
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's Priest homes Room Cornell. Uh Spurs Anthony Spurs

760
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 5: your your boys, Uh come out of a match with

761
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 5: Everton with a draw with Charleston to two.

762
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 3: Uh.

763
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 5: Someone in the group chat was talking about how that

764
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 5: was the easiest bet on the board and I'm really

765
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 5: pissed I didn't.

766
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, so shout out into the.

767
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 5: Big sub for that one minus won twenty on Spurs

768
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 5: here at home against Brighton coming in at plus two

769
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 5: eighty and the drus plus three twenty and that this

770
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:35,359
Speaker 5: one also seems too high on the home team. Uh

771
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 5: a little, a little scary here.

772
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to. I don't want to

773
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 1: lay it with Spurs against a team like Brighton.

774
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 5: I get the Brighton has flaws and maybe deserve you

775
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 5: ball has been found out a bit over the course

776
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 5: of the season. But I mean give them any sort

777
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 5: of kind of frenetic pace, which is what Spurs are

778
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 5: gonna want to do, and it awakens in them. I

779
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 5: feel like so in coming off a good performance as well,

780
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 5: so I like Brighton here plus two eighty. I think

781
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 5: it's a good price on the road at Tottenham.

782
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: What do you think.

783
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 3: Stylistically you can't make this total high enough? Yeah? True,

784
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 3: I mean, angine deserve be me like, we're not going

785
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: to get any of those. We're not just all overs,

786
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 3: so you just nail nail. I mean no, although there's

787
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 3: just I mean the last game, I did what three

788
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: to two, yes, four two, four to two, four to two,

789
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 3: and I mean it could have been more. There was

790
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 3: two penalty like it was chaos. Neither team really looked

791
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 3: like defending from the first minute. It was just like,

792
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: whoever has the ball is going to get the ball

793
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 3: into the penalty area and then hopefully they don't score

794
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 3: when they shoot. I kind of want to just bet

795
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 3: against whoever takes a lead live right, It's like a

796
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 3: great live betting game. It's you could live trade this,

797
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 3: you could alt over four and a half, five and

798
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 3: a half. It doesn't mean it's going to happen, obviously,

799
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 3: but like the way these managers want to play, Like,

800
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 3: would either manager be unhappy with a three to three

801
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 3: draw after ninety minutes if they had a great day and.

802
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 5: Then they talk about it, it would be great to

803
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 5: hear that we had to go and yep, so would

804
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 5: deserve me and yeah, he would be asked if he's

805
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 5: going to coach Barcelona and then you know, it would

806
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:16,879
Speaker 5: be a lot of fun.

807
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: I just don't really have a ton to go with here.

808
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 3: I mean, Spurs have been a bottom five defense in

809
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 3: the last two months. I talked about it. It didn't

810
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 3: really look that much better against Everton. Van deven is

811
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 3: a huge addition. He didn't play in the last meeting,

812
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 3: so yes, that's like probably the biggest difference. But the

813
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: midfield is still easily overplayed through it for Tottenham, they're

814
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 3: going to take a ton of chances to prey. I

815
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 3: mean it's essentially like it's it's a Bundesliga match.

816
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Now the total that's twenty two to one, usually

817
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 1: we get like seven or one.

818
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 3: I would need like thirty forty.

819
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, but still it just tells you like a son,

820
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: you know, his.

821
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: Status is up in the air. I can't imagine he's

822
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 3: playing just because they just played in the Asian Cup.

823
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, I just think overs and fading the team live.

824
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 3: Whoever scores first is a good bet here, and of

825
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 3: course I lean toward Brighton as well. Don't really have

826
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 3: a huge gap between these two teams right now?

827
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 1: Yep, anything BJA or should we move on to Wobs.

828
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 2: I'll just say this about Brighton. Thomas Frank had a

829
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 2: nice quote about Brighton and I thought would kind of

830
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: hit the nail on the head. Basically said, when you

831
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 2: play them, you either have to give them what they want,

832
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 2: which is press them high and try and forced turnovers,

833
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,359
Speaker 2: or you have to sit in a low defensive block

834
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 2: or they will punish you. And Crystal Palace got caught

835
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 2: in between for the entire match and Brighton ripped them apart.

836
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 2: Tomam is going to go for it. They forced seventeen

837
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 2: high turnovers in the previous meeting. Obviously a lot of

838
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 2: those came when Brighton was already up a bunch of goals,

839
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 2: but still it kind of highlights Anthony's point that like

840
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: this is going to be very back and forth. So

841
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 2: I agree with Anthony that if I was going to

842
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,800
Speaker 2: play anything, I would play an over. I don't trust

843
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 2: Brighton in the spot. I am showing a little value

844
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 2: on them. Quite frankly, I think Toddham is a lot

845
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 2: better with vana Ben back there defensively, So if anything,

846
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: it would just be alive over al right, excuse me.

847
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 5: October Okay, Wolves in Brentford Wolverhampton plus one ten at

848
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 5: home Brentford plus two forty, the draws plus two sixty,

849
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 5: the nil nil for this one plays at eleven to one.

850
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 5: That's just you know, the point us make is usually

851
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 5: it's it's you know, in the nine to eleven to

852
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 5: one range, and for for Spurs and Brighton it's twenty

853
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 5: two to one, maybe nil nil for like the first

854
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 5: fifteen minutes should pay out like ten to one in

855
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 5: that one.

856
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: Another one, I think that the numbers too high on

857
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 1: the home team. We can get into it. We love wolves.

858
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 5: We like wolves when they punch, they're punching up as

859
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 5: an underdog. We like this scary O'Neil character. It's been

860
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:45,439
Speaker 5: a great fit.

861
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 1: Not too much.

862
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 5: You can you can poke holes in with this team.

863
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 5: They're bang average, They're sitting in tenth place. But this

864
00:41:53,160 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 5: is considering the underlying portfolio that Brentford owns, like there's

865
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 5: very little between them.

866
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 1: Like I think like these two teams.

867
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 5: I don't wouldn't argue with anyone who would say that

868
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 5: they kind of like Brentford more than Wolverhampton at all.

869
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 5: I just think that the ceiling is higher for for

870
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 5: the Bees, great spot for them as a as a

871
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 5: road dog at a decent number BJ. So it's a

872
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 5: set it and forget it kind of play here once

873
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 5: again with Brentford.

874
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. So this is the fourth meeting between

875
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,879
Speaker 2: these two teams in a very short amount of time.

876
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 2: The first meeting was just rife with a lenitis defending

877
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 2: from Brentford, terrible back passes, not defending crosses like it.

878
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: It was just basically everything that possibly could have gone

879
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 2: wrong did go wrong, and they still only allowed two

880
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 2: point four expected goals and that was with a tap

881
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 2: in from Whanga had an actually rating a point nine

882
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:54,240
Speaker 2: to nine. So in total, outside of one just terrible

883
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 2: back pass, they didn't really allow a lot considering they

884
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 2: you know, allowed four goals in that match. Then they

885
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,959
Speaker 2: played in the FA Cup twice. There was the first

886
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: match ended one to one, Brentford went up a man

887
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 2: or excuse me, Wolves went down a man early. Brentford

888
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 2: scored and then allowed one late and then in the replay,

889
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 2: Wolves one in extra time. But again if you take

890
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 2: away Kunya's penalty, an extra time expected goals was was

891
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 2: basically even. So it kind of highlights your point, Michael,

892
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 2: that these two teams have played now three times and

893
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 2: have played very very evenly when they're both playing eleven

894
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 2: on eleven. And something I found interesting from Brentford is

895
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 2: the first meeting against Wolves. You know, Brentford obviously, when

896
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 2: they are in a situation where they believe they're the

897
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 2: favorites or they're gonna hold a lot of possession, they

898
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 2: switched to a four to three three. They did that

899
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 2: against Wolves, and they kind of got caught out a

900
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 2: couple of times in the two matches against them in

901
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 2: the FA Cup, they switched back to their normal three

902
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 2: to five two, and they like they basically handed Wolves

903
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 2: the ball and said, all right, you know you're the

904
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 2: ones they're gonna have to break us down. And especially

905
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 2: in that second meeting, Wolves held a majority of the possession,

906
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 2: and they really weren't that effective. I mean, one point

907
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 2: two non penalty goals off of twenty four shots, Like

908
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 2: that's not efficient at all, and it kind of highlights

909
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 2: something that Wolves is really profiles really well as a

910
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,399
Speaker 2: team against one of the big boys. You know, their

911
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 2: ability to play in transition with Nato causes a lot

912
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 2: of the Big Boys problems. You saw that against Chelsea.

913
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 2: But when against bottom half the table teams this season,

914
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 2: they have a minus one point five expect a goldifferential,

915
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 2: which kind of highlights that maybe they're not as good

916
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 2: when they're the ones controlling more the majority of the possession.

917
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 2: So I agree, I think this is these two teams

918
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,760
Speaker 2: are dead on even, and like I would have Brentford

919
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 2: favorite on a neutral field, so I don't see a

920
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 2: scenario white Wolf should be this big of a favorite.

921
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 2: So I like Brentford plus a half of minus one

922
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 2: twenty five and obviously Ivan Tony makes Brentford just so

923
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 2: much better comparatively to the other three meetings when they

924
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 2: didn't have him.

925
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 3: I pretty much agree entirely with bj I don't have

926
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 3: a ton nolse to add I leen with Brentford as well.

927
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 3: I lean with the over. I think the mark can

928
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 3: still shore on the attacking quality and Wolves overs. I

929
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 3: mean why not, right yep?

930
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 1: Wolves overs one year late. Okay, so that that ends

931
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 1: a run of games.

932
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 5: We had plenty of conviction on Sheffield United, bright Brighton

933
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 5: Spurs basketball match Bradford. Now we get into kind of

934
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,399
Speaker 5: the dregs of the board. I would say, you guys,

935
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 5: like the total in Newcastle Forest Anthony, you both are

936
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,240
Speaker 5: looking at the same side.

937
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,720
Speaker 3: Close three on Boxing Day, I bet the under lost.

938
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 3: Now it's two and a half. You can still find

939
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: a minus one twenty five out there. Minus one thirty

940
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 3: is fine. I've downgraded both of these defenses since then,

941
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 3: upgraded both in both attacks since then. Like Newcastle's got

942
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: Barnes back in the fold, he's been you know, he

943
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 3: scores against Newton. I mean, they're just playing styles that

944
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 3: just suggest this total shouldn't be two and a half.

945
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 3: And I know that it's Newcastle on the road and whatever.

946
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 3: But there's gonna be opportunities on the break for Forrest.

947
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 3: Iwony in the lineup, Rain coming off the bench would

948
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 3: like off the bench. Now. I think there's just a

949
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 3: lot more attacking depth at Forrest and they have a

950
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 3: new goal leaf, so maybe that helps their shots stopping numbers.

951
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 3: But we'll see if this kid's any good. Cells don't

952
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 3: don't have a ton on him, but don't really think

953
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 3: he's gonna decide.

954
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 2: He might if the Courtoise not healthy, he might be

955
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 2: in net for Belgium at the Euros. I'm just gonna

956
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 2: say that, just letting everybody know out there.

957
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 3: Is Belgium concust in terms of in terms of depth charts.

958
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 2: I saw that he was don't know, maybe done, But anyway,

959
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 2: I I think something interesting is happening with Newcastle or

960
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 2: I wasn't on the last podcast, but Newcastle switched their

961
00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 2: pressing structure against Aston Villain. It caught them by surprise.

962
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 2: They started going uber aggressive. They went manned a man

963
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 2: across the back line marking all of their attackers. Uh

964
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 2: and it worked and they caused a lot of problems

965
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 2: for Villain. But then they went and played Lootontown and

966
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 2: when you play that aggressively with the back line that

967
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:02,160
Speaker 2: is generally slow. Right with shar and Burn back there

968
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 2: in trip here, Lowtontown just used their pace to get

969
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 2: in behind time and time again, and that is something

970
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 2: that at Ntingham Forrest can do here as well. Nallium

971
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 2: Forest has been more willing to play out of the back,

972
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 2: so it kind of goes highlights the analysis I had

973
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 2: for aston Villa and Newcastle when they played It was

974
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 2: just like, all right, well, one or two things is

975
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: gonna happen. Either Knilliam Forrest is going to be able

976
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 2: to play through them and create a good transition opportunity,

977
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 2: or they're gonna turn the ball over and it's going

978
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 2: to create a good opportunity for Newcastles. But either way,

979
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 2: I like the over.

980
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 5: Okay, sun that is a Saturday twelve dirty kickoff. Sunday,

981
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 5: we have a nine am tilt between Arsenal and west Ham.

982
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 5: All three of us are passing. West Ham is five

983
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:46,799
Speaker 5: to one at home.

984
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 3: Do you believe, Anthony, we're gonna We're gonna believe about

985
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 3: Arsenal and the Champions League pod and uh believe I have?

986
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 1: That may surprise some people, not too much that we

987
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: need to get into there.

988
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 5: Like Anthony said, we'll save some thoughts on on Arsenal

989
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 5: for Monday mornings Pod Palace and Chelsea.

990
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 1: That's the Monday night football kickoff.

991
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 5: It's gonna be interesting to see how many people are

992
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 5: kind of just like interested in betting it because it's

993
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 5: the day after the NFL season wraps up with the

994
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 5: Chiefs and forty nine Ers, and.

995
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:25,959
Speaker 1: Then on Sunday and I watched this interesting I would

996
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 1: take I would take Chelsea.

997
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 5: I would take Chelsea Palace at Seller's Park over any

998
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 5: NFL product put out.

999
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 1: There these days.

1000
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 2: No a least say no essay for extended periods.

1001
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 5: Palace is again again how it goes. It's just how

1002
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,279
Speaker 5: it goes with these guys. Poor Roy can't catch a break.

1003
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,240
Speaker 5: All the breaks goed to Jurigan.

1004
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 2: True.

1005
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 3: I mean I bet the over two and a half

1006
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 3: it minus one five. It got that up, and now

1007
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 3: it's at a point where I wouldn't play it, especially

1008
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 3: without those guys, So I'm just not going to bet

1009
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 3: this game. I don't think we'll see if the marker

1010
00:48:58,120 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 3: comes back down, I'd still like it over if you

1011
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 3: can find a cheap two and a half because Chelsea

1012
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 3: gets Jackson back today and they just look like a

1013
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 3: different team with him. They're averaging over to XG per

1014
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 3: match in the prem this year when he's on the pitch,

1015
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 3: they're at like one point three when he's off the pitch. Unsurprisingly,

1016
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 3: his XG for ninety is like point sixty seven, so

1017
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,399
Speaker 3: the difference, but they're literally getting nothing from anybody else

1018
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 3: when he's not there. So Jackson is good. It turns

1019
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 3: out very good, and we're gonna, I think, see the

1020
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:25,720
Speaker 3: best version of the Chelsea attack for this game. Gusto

1021
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 3: as well as a fullback like this is probably their

1022
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 3: best offensive team and they're still flawed defensively, so over

1023
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 3: two and a half is probably still good. But again

1024
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: with the current number with those guys out, I can't

1025
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 3: play it.

1026
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 5: Okay, that's the Premier League. Let's quickly run through the

1027
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 5: rest of Europe. Will go to the Bundesliga, where Anthony

1028
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 5: was all over brusha monk. Absolutely absolutely, I already didn't

1029
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 5: put it in.

1030
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 2: He didn't put it in. The underdog parlay and absolute disgrace.

1031
00:49:56,880 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: I know they didn't win, absolutely, it doesn't matter. Yeah,

1032
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: Molly came very close.

1033
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 1: To losing. It's about it sticking to your guns.

1034
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll tell you what. Somebody tweeted me before the

1035
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 3: match and said, did you bet you know, should I

1036
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 3: bet Glodbox first half Buyern to win eighteen to one?

1037
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 3: I was like yes, And then it was like the

1038
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 3: forty fifth minute glod Box up one nil. I'm like,

1039
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 3: I can't believe I didn't bet this myself.

1040
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 4: Uh.

1041
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 3: And then they didn't win. They gave up a goal

1042
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 3: in stoppage time of half. So uh yeah, first half

1043
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 3: money line loses for the first time in a while.

1044
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 3: But first half team total gets in. The spread was

1045
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 3: really never in doubt until they had a point blank

1046
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 3: header in the eighty eighth minute to win to go

1047
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 3: at four to one, and they didn't hit it, thankfully.

1048
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: But yeah, Glodbock covers again. Congrats to Byron on their

1049
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: amazing upset victory over Gladbach and I will continue to

1050
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 3: bet Gladboch. We'll see you again next season. Uh for

1051
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 3: the rematch, which we continue to run it back with

1052
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 3: these inflated numbers. Beautiful. I like Coffinheim this weekend at

1053
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 3: home against Colone. The market keeps banking in this like

1054
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 3: Cologne is going to somehow turn a corner. I don't agree.

1055
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 3: The team looks shot had a good win at home

1056
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 3: against Frankfurt, but like they got a red card in

1057
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 3: that they Frankfort's pretty overrated themselves, and now they go

1058
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 3: on the road after a big win, and I think

1059
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 3: Happenheim's cheap, like the markets saying Hawfenheim's barely better. I disagree.

1060
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 3: And then we've got the game of the weekend. Bjay

1061
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 3: at Leverkusen should be a fun one. It'd be a

1062
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 3: great Weeme minus one ten aligned you never see in

1063
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 3: this league with aver.

1064
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 2: Ever, and I love them and I love them in

1065
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 2: this match too. So here's the thing with Leverkusen. You know,

1066
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,919
Speaker 2: obviously they have drastically overformed to get to this point.

1067
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 2: You know, they're outran their expected goals by about fourteen

1068
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 2: thirty eight actual gold of French wal twenty four expected

1069
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 2: gold to French all well, Byron, it's basically right on

1070
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 2: them with actual, but they're like expected metrics are exactly

1071
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,560
Speaker 2: what their actual ones are. So there's a pretty significant

1072
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 2: gap in terms of underlying metrics. But the biggest thing,

1073
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 2: So Leverkusen played Stuttgart in the German Cup on Wednesday,

1074
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 2: and Stutgart was able to exploit a couple of weeks.

1075
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 2: It says that Leverkusen has. It's that so Leverkusen, when

1076
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 2: you see all these like beautiful clips on Twitter of

1077
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,720
Speaker 2: like shabby Alonzo ball where they're just playing quick classes

1078
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 2: like through everybody, well those are largely coming against teams

1079
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 2: like Mines and Bocum and everything, teams that aren't very

1080
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,239
Speaker 2: good at pressing. Stute Guard did a great job of

1081
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 2: high pressing them, forced a lot of high turnovers, in fact,

1082
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 2: scored one of their goals off the high turnover. Byron

1083
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 2: is the best pressing team with Leverkusen is going to

1084
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 2: see all season and they're going to cause problems for them.

1085
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,360
Speaker 2: And another huge weakness that Leverkuson has is they are

1086
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 2: the worst team in the Bundesliga on set pieces. Byron

1087
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 2: has scored the most goals and has created the most

1088
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,360
Speaker 2: expected goals off of set pieces of this season, so

1089
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 2: they're gonna have a big advantage there. Number one in

1090
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 2: aerial dual win percentage as well. So I don't really

1091
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 2: see a reason why they should be a pick I

1092
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 2: I Byron a plus one O eight I think they

1093
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,920
Speaker 2: should be a favorite here, so I love Byron in

1094
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 2: the spot.

1095
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,399
Speaker 3: Well, I am tempted by the under for what it's worth.

1096
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:55,399
Speaker 1: I think the team in the Byron game, yeah, I am.

1097
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 2: Still still three and a half.

1098
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 3: Half and uh, you know, there's so much talent on

1099
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,719
Speaker 3: the field that it's kind of scary. But I think

1100
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 3: the way this matchup profiles, it could be like a

1101
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 3: sneaky maybe first half under because it could open up

1102
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 3: a lot if one team falls behind, they have to

1103
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 3: press a lot. But I think this is going to

1104
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 3: be very cagy early where both teams don't want to

1105
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 3: really lose it and Leverkusen doesn't press that much. They

1106
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 3: don't take a ton of chances out of possession when

1107
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 3: they don't have it, and Byron yet like they're very

1108
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 3: effective when they do press, but even the Tucul team

1109
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 3: like they're not pressing at the same level of like

1110
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 3: the Flick or Novelsman teams did. Like the pressing isn't

1111
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:35,359
Speaker 3: quite as good or as consistent. So I don't really

1112
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:36,840
Speaker 3: want to do it though, But yeah, under one and

1113
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:39,279
Speaker 3: a half is the interesting thing for me in the

1114
00:53:39,320 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 3: first half. But I agree I link toward Byron as well.

1115
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 3: Betting Byron so much more fun than betting against it is.

1116
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I wonder if you if you took the big

1117
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:52,920
Speaker 5: five leagues and you calculate it across like all competitions,

1118
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 5: and you did like a percentage of times we've picked

1119
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 5: against them, I think Byron would probably all right or

1120
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 5: picked on them.

1121
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 1: I think Byron would be at the lowest if that,

1122
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 1: of our table.

1123
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 5: No bet we we bet United a bit. I mean

1124
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 5: I I do at least, but I think Byron down there. Okay,

1125
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 5: La Liga up next? Something crazy going on it at

1126
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 5: uh with the Atletico Madrid match, I'm not totally sure.

1127
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 5: I'm I just try to keep one eye on it.

1128
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 5: But of Copa, it looks like they just got bounced.

1129
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:35,759
Speaker 5: They had a penalty, they had a penalty and two legs. Yeah,

1130
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 5: but at the end they had of the match, they

1131
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 5: had a penalty, but it was got off.

1132
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:42,800
Speaker 2: To a semifinal. Why do they do two legs? It

1133
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 2: drives me nuts. Everybody does this.

1134
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,320
Speaker 3: So shout out to Kapper because he he tweeted it

1135
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 3: and and kind of put me on Bilbao to win

1136
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 3: the Copa sixteen to one, and so we're we're sweating

1137
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 3: that one out and uh, he's messaging me as we're

1138
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 3: having this.

1139
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 1: Thanks for sharing, Thanks for sharing.

1140
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 3: I'm a loser. I think I tweeted it, but you don't.

1141
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 3: You don't follow me on Twitter anymore.

1142
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:05,319
Speaker 1: So yeah, too much, too much stuff about the ringer. Uh,

1143
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:09,839
Speaker 1: let's go. Uh, let's do uh your favorite bet in La.

1144
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,919
Speaker 5: Liga, Anthony, rather than get into the rewatchables or whatever

1145
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 5: you're you're talking about these days.

1146
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, so last Palmis and Valencia under two. I just

1147
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:21,359
Speaker 3: I I project this under one point seven goals. I'm

1148
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: curious where BJ has it? One one point seven five.

1149
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:26,920
Speaker 1: There you go.

1150
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 3: So we're both on this. I guess just I'll be

1151
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 3: on my favorite I'll be on my favorite bed of all.

1152
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 2: Time in this match. Yeah.

1153
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 5: No, what is it?

1154
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:37,880
Speaker 3: Minus one nine?

1155
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 2: It's no, it's like minus one here. Let me look

1156
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 2: it up. You talk and I'll look it up.

1157
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 1: All right.

1158
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:44,279
Speaker 3: Well, I mean I don't have a ton on this.

1159
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 3: I mean it's just a really the elite goalkeeper. Palmis

1160
00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 3: plays a very high line. Valenci doesn't really have like

1161
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 3: the pace to exploit it. Tough travel spot for Valencia two.

1162
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 2: Uh, and so yeah, give me the under two minus

1163
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 2: one twenty five both teams to score now steep.

1164
00:55:57,800 --> 00:55:59,480
Speaker 3: Well, I guess it's a pick up. So the market

1165
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 3: market expecting one that is crazy cheap. For a day

1166
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:06,800
Speaker 3: or two, I have projected that one minus one ninety

1167
00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 3: two is when.

1168
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 2: I have both teams score. No projected that, so I

1169
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 2: will be betting that.

1170
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 1: And you also have the over three and a half.

1171
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 2: Oh, we have a great and we have another great

1172
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 2: match going on exactly the same time as Leverkusen and

1173
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 2: Byron Gerona Real Madrid, which could be very big match

1174
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 2: for Barcelona futures if Groona can pull something off here.

1175
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,080
Speaker 2: There is a trend that's been happening with Girona, like

1176
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 2: we've obviously talked. I've obviously talked about them a lot

1177
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:34,480
Speaker 2: and how aggressive they are, Like I think they're like

1178
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 2: the most aggressive team I've ever seen in possession, like

1179
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:39,800
Speaker 2: trying to get like overload and overloads and try to

1180
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 2: put pressure on the opposing defense. And they do a

1181
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: fantastic job of that. But when they play against the

1182
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 2: big boys, they have gotten torched repeatedly, over and over

1183
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,000
Speaker 2: and over again, and the matches have just been chaotic.

1184
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:57,800
Speaker 2: Three matches against Real Madrid Barcelona and Athletico sixteen goals

1185
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 2: fourteen point seven expected goals, and it's because those three

1186
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 2: teams know how to exploit really, really bad transition defenses.

1187
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:11,440
Speaker 2: So I'm expecting a lot of chaos here. Real Madrid

1188
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 2: has you know, it proved defensively comparatively two years past.

1189
00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 2: But man, I mean just just thinking about the way

1190
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 2: that Barcelona created like eight big scoring chances against Girona,

1191
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 2: Like what Bellingham, Rodrigo and Vinicia Junior are gonna be

1192
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:27,120
Speaker 2: able to do on the break against this team is

1193
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 2: crazy to think about. So over three and a half

1194
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:32,040
Speaker 2: plus one twenty eight projected three point seven goals.

1195
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we have a couple of injury questions there.

1196
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 3: I haven't been anything that in that match. Dompick might

1197
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 3: be back and Vinnie's questionable now, so that's the only

1198
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 3: thing that's kind of concerning me.

1199
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 2: But yeah, Vinnie was on the bench. Yeah, Vinnie was

1200
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 2: on the bench against Athletico, so he might be back

1201
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 2: for this one.

1202
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 3: They scratched him. That was the thing. He was supposed

1203
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 3: to start and then he didn't, so that nearly wasn't

1204
00:57:53,800 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 3: great for our over but but yeah, so we'll see

1205
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 3: with Vinnie. But if everybody's a full go. Yeah, the

1206
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 3: total low be three and a half flat.

1207
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:08,440
Speaker 1: All right, Syria, Ah, let's go right to you, Anthony.

1208
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 3: I'll do have sentence. Market's still not adjusting to Roma

1209
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 3: post and Marinho label two and a half plus one

1210
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 3: thirty against Inter. I think they're very clearly if you

1211
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 3: just watch them playing differently, more expansive, more open and

1212
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,240
Speaker 3: Ninter is happy to get into a back and forth

1213
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 3: battle with anybody. They have more talent than everybody, so

1214
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 3: why not. And I like the over there and it's

1215
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 3: not not a tough spot for them because the Champions

1216
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:29,040
Speaker 3: League is not till the following week.

1217
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 1: So over we miss you, We miss you, Jose BJ

1218
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 1: anything for you and.

1219
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: Syria une a plus one against Fiorentina just another fate

1220
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 2: of this Fiorentina thing team, which I think is completely

1221
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 2: flawed and over valued offensively. So I think the numbers

1222
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 2: played too high on them. So like frosting on a

1223
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 2: okay league.

1224
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 3: Oh Anthony, we're going back to the LEL against PSG

1225
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 3: train cash in the ninety fourth last time. I just

1226
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 3: think PSG is like, if you look at their underline numbers,

1227
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 3: you expect some air in them, not this much. They

1228
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 3: run very very good to get to where they are,

1229
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 3: and lil has underformed their numbers. So classic just you know,

1230
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 3: buy the undervalue team, sell the overrated team, and take

1231
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 3: little plus one on the road gave the money.

1232
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 2: BJ nice plus one thirty five. Kind of a low

1233
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 2: price for a really really good defensive team. Nissas only

1234
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 2: longing point seventy six non penalty x sheep for ninety

1235
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 2: in the league on this season. Monaco has been in

1236
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 2: if he formed since the new year, so projected NISSA

1237
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:29,040
Speaker 2: minus one oh seven, So I like the value on

1238
00:59:29,080 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 2: them at plus one thirty five.

1239
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 5: All right, time for our favorite underdogs, BJ, You're going

1240
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 5: to a classic team that we are always featuring in

1241
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 5: this segment, it seems.

1242
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I already talked about a Brentford plus two fifty

1243
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 2: on the road against Wolves, two teams that quite frankly,

1244
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,400
Speaker 2: have played each other very very evenly in the other

1245
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:49,720
Speaker 2: previous three meetings. So I don't really think there is

1246
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 2: a huge gap between these two, not enough to suggest

1247
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 2: that Wolves should be essentially laying as an even money

1248
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 2: favorite at home, and I would have Brentford projected as

1249
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:00,080
Speaker 2: a favorite if it was. We're in neutral Fields. I

1250
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:01,560
Speaker 2: like the Bees plus two fifty.

1251
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 5: And in the chaos Bowl between Spurs and Brighton, I'll

1252
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:07,600
Speaker 5: take the Seagulls at plus two eighty. On the road,

1253
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 5: I think that this game can go in a million

1254
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 5: different directions. That's always good news for an underdog, especially

1255
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 5: one that just had a pretty good performance against Tottenham

1256
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 5: not too long ago. So Brighton another team that seems

1257
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:20,560
Speaker 5: to feature in this part of the show quite a

1258
01:00:20,640 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 5: bit at plus two eighty and Anthony, we can pass

1259
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 5: it over to you and just know that I co

1260
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:27,720
Speaker 5: sign it with my heart.

1261
01:00:28,400 --> 01:00:31,280
Speaker 3: Sheffield plus three seventy. Yeah, we were discussing at pre

1262
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 3: show and really just at the top of the market

1263
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 3: on Looton you're starting here that can they stay up?

1264
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 3: Can they stay up conversations? They've conceded a ton of chances,

1265
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 3: relying a ton on set pieces to score goals, just

1266
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 3: like all of this voodoo and like great story rooting

1267
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:50,400
Speaker 3: for them, kind of hope they do. But like this

1268
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 3: is the top of the market, so give me Sheffield.

1269
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 5: That parlay comes in at just about sixty two to one,

1270
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 5: Brighton Brentford and Sheffield Molly lost.

1271
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 3: Uh.

1272
01:01:03,600 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 5: I'll stick with with myself here for best bets because

1273
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:08,640
Speaker 5: you just talked about iike Sheffield United. I think it's

1274
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 5: one of my favorite money line plays of the entire season.

1275
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 5: It just looks way out of whack considering the difference

1276
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 5: between these two teams is closer to negligible than uh

1277
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 5: these odds. So give me the Blades on the road

1278
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 5: at Lowtontown BJA. Your favorite bet in the Premier.

1279
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:27,680
Speaker 2: League Winston Villa plus one ten against Manchester United at

1280
01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 2: Villa Park. Manchester United has gotten a couple of good results,

1281
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:32,520
Speaker 2: you know, a win against Wolves and a win against

1282
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: west Ham, but they're still very very flawed out of

1283
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:38,240
Speaker 2: possession and the fact that erin Eric ten Hawk hasn't

1284
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 2: found a pressing structure that works for them. And you know,

1285
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 2: Aston Villa is a very good build up team and

1286
01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 2: they're going to get their best center back and their

1287
01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 2: best ball progressor and their best passer power torres back,

1288
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:49,640
Speaker 2: which is going to be massive for them in their

1289
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 2: build up. They're at home where they've been fantastic this season.

1290
01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 2: Plus ten pointy had expected goal differential, while United has

1291
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:57,760
Speaker 2: been very poor away from home, So I like Villa

1292
01:01:57,800 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 2: plus one ten.

1293
01:01:58,760 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 3: Everton team total over half minus one ten for me,

1294
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 3: I think Cities playing an expansive style. They're committing more

1295
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 3: numbers forward. They're gonna score goals in this match, but

1296
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:11,920
Speaker 3: they will concede at least one. Give me the topees and.

1297
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 2: One more thing before we get out of here, Michael,

1298
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 2: Here we go Nigeria af Con Final. Yeah, the number

1299
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 2: doesn't come out yet, whatever it is. I like Nigeria

1300
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:23,919
Speaker 2: against the Ivory Coast.

1301
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 3: Good to any number. BJ about eleven to one on

1302
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 3: Nigeria pre tournament, he should say, and no Hedge, no Hedge,

1303
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 3: no Hedge having a great.

1304
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 5: Turn down well, and BJ, thank you for sharing that

1305
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 5: that future bet with your friends. That's what you should

1306
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 5: be doing.

1307
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 2: I like outside, Michael. I don't know how times I

1308
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 2: can like times.

1309
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 1: I can you.

1310
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:50,440
Speaker 5: No, you did, Tony, but we got Tony Bilbao over

1311
01:02:50,520 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 5: there just keeping that stuff to himself.

1312
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 1: So thank you. I know you gave it out on

1313
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 1: the podcast.

1314
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:57,280
Speaker 5: Who told me to parlay it with a bunch of

1315
01:02:57,400 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 5: you know, a f L and cricket cricket bets, and

1316
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 5: I appreciate that as always.

1317
01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:03,680
Speaker 1: If Tony could just learn a couple of things from you,

1318
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:04,680
Speaker 1: maybe that's.

1319
01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:07,520
Speaker 3: Right that we're gonna have a brand new crop of

1320
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 3: losing futures for the Champions League as Europa.

1321
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, all right with that, we'll say goodbye for now.

1322
01:03:14,680 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 5: We'll see you again on Monday morning to preview the

1323
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 5: Champions League. Good luck this weekend if you're betting the football.

1324
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 5: Good luck this weekend if you're betting the football, and

1325
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:29,120
Speaker 5: we will hopefully have some winners in our pocket on.

1326
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 1: The Football.

1327
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1328
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1329
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler