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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 1: They're up for running a game so smoothe so sweet,

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Speaker 1: splendid sixteen, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: This, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts

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Speaker 3: four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shot with fine?

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, And that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picts him, God shot.

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Speaker 1: Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm turning again the all.

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Speaker 1: It's left to of the wide eyed drill confused? How

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Speaker 1: old Earth picked that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to a wonderful at the Soccer

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Speaker 3: Betting podcast at the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba.

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Speaker 3: Joining me today are BJ Cunningham, Anthony Debundo and we

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Speaker 3: have big news. Wonder Goal has a sponsor. BET three

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Speaker 3: six five, the best sports book on the planet has

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Speaker 3: chosen to sponsor our soccer podcast, our beloved soccer podcast,

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Speaker 3: Wonder Goal. Anthony, how does this make you feel?

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Speaker 2: Well? You know, I think it's it's really a big

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Speaker 2: challenge now because we need to figure out if we

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Speaker 2: can handicap soccer matches on a Rainy Night in Stoke.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Bet three six five are based out of Stoke

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Speaker 3: in the UK, or at least their UK offices are

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Speaker 3: so bj Yeah, this is Iowa.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, this is This is honestly really cool. I honestly,

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Speaker 1: I know I'm speaking for Michael and Aby. I could

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Speaker 1: not be happier to have BET three six five with us,

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Speaker 1: literally the most prominent European book you know, starting to

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Speaker 1: make their way over to the American market. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I obviously I want to thank BET three six five

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Speaker 1: for sponsoring us, but I also want to thank our

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Speaker 1: loyal listeners because you know, if nobody listened to this podcast,

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Speaker 1: then we wouldn't be getting a sponsorship. So it's truly

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Speaker 1: a testament to all you everybody out there who's listened to,

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Speaker 1: you know, so diligently to every single episode, who's downloaded

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Speaker 1: every single episode. So thank you all to everybody out there.

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Speaker 1: And we could not be happier with this news.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and hopefully we've put some money in your pocket,

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Speaker 3: dear listener. We've been on a good start to the season.

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Speaker 3: Our best bets, which we give out at the end

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Speaker 3: of the show, plus twelve units overall, and then our

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Speaker 3: three leg money line underdog parlay. If you bet each

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Speaker 3: of those underdogs as separate legs, you'd be up six

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Speaker 3: units there as well. So things are going well. Hopefully

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Speaker 3: we can keep it up now that we have our

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Speaker 3: wonderful sponsor Bet three six five on board. Let's look ahead.

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Speaker 3: We have midweek Premier League matches. I mean the soccer

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Speaker 3: is just not going to stop from now until till Christmas.

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Speaker 1: The World Cup, Yeah, it's going to be every day.

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Speaker 1: So but we love it, and you know that's we

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Speaker 1: love it. Since why we do this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's time to sink our teeth in because it

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Speaker 3: is about to get nutty. Let's start two thirty pm

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Speaker 3: on Tuesday, showdown at Selhurst Park between two London clubs,

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Speaker 3: Crystal Palace plus one ten at Bet three six fot

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Speaker 3: Bradford plus two to fifty the draws plus two forty.

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Speaker 3: I think both of these teams we identified midway through

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Speaker 3: last year as bet on teams, so when they meet,

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Speaker 3: it's it's always a little tough for us to kind

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Speaker 3: of figure out where the value is. Especially with Pallace.

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Speaker 3: We'd always talk about them as it profiling is such

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Speaker 3: a good underdog. But here they are plus one ten

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Speaker 3: favorite at home against a dangerous side. We don't know

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Speaker 3: about Wilf Saha he missed the City match, is what

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Speaker 3: his injury is going to be like. And Brentford they

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Speaker 3: come in off a one to one draw against Everton.

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Speaker 3: They definitely deserved better, but they were vulnerable in that

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Speaker 3: game too. They could have been down to nail a

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Speaker 3: couple different times. So this one looks like a pass

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Speaker 3: for me. I might look at a draw, the total

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Speaker 3: sitting pretty low. These are two very good defensive sides,

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Speaker 3: but Pallace's home form really scares me off betting against

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Speaker 3: them here, So it's jar nothing for me, Anthony. What

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Speaker 3: about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Brentford did get a good amount of

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Speaker 2: chances against Everton and failed to convert some of those,

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Speaker 2: but you have to remember going into that match they

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Speaker 2: were running about as hot as anybody in the world

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Speaker 2: for the first few matches. So even despite the underperforming

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Speaker 2: you know relatives who expected goals, there's still pretty well

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Speaker 2: above it at this point nine goals from just about

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Speaker 2: six six and their sixth most expected goals created in

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Speaker 2: the league thus far. I'm not buying that. I'm not

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Speaker 2: buying that they will continue to run that hot I'm

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Speaker 2: not buying they will continue to create that many chances.

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Speaker 2: I think they got some pretty favorable matchups in very

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Speaker 2: good spots, and now going on the road against a

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Speaker 2: great defensive side like Palace, I do think they're going

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Speaker 2: to struggle to create chances in this match. Both meetings

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Speaker 2: last year did end goal list. Both had less than

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Speaker 2: two combined expected goals Pallas. We talked about this the

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Speaker 2: first four matches of the season. Three of them they

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Speaker 2: were huge underdogs against top six teams. They did not

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Speaker 2: have much possession in those matches. This is going to

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Speaker 2: be a little bit different, and we saw last year

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Speaker 2: that when Palace had the onus on them to create

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Speaker 2: chances to break teams down, they struggled to do that

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Speaker 2: quite a bit more. There wasn't as much space and

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Speaker 2: their number one player four doing that taking players on

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Speaker 2: and getting crossed into the box is well of Zaha.

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Speaker 2: He may not play in this match, you know, with

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Speaker 2: it being such a short short turnaround from Saturday. I'm

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Speaker 2: probably not going to play, but we don't know as

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Speaker 2: of Sunday night. Either way, whether he plays or not,

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Speaker 2: I will betting the under two and a half I

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Speaker 2: already bet it minus one eighteen. I like it up

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Speaker 2: to minus one thirty. Bees rely heavily on set pieces.

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Speaker 2: It was a true last year, it still range true

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Speaker 2: this year. Pallas have actually conceded the fifth fewest shots

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Speaker 2: from set pieces. Think about that in consideration with the

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Speaker 2: fact of who they've played. It's pretty impressive. So yes,

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Speaker 2: they conceded opening day to Arsenal from a set piece,

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Speaker 2: but they've been excellent on defensive set pieces generally, and

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Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be very hard for Brentford to

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Speaker 2: create chances. I do think Palace probably wins more often

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Speaker 2: than not. But again, not playing the number, it's about

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Speaker 2: right for me. I'm going to play the under.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean Palace coming into this one. It

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Speaker 3: is a little bit of a leftown spot considering their

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Speaker 3: start to the season in the fact they were up

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Speaker 3: to nil at sixteen to one underdogs, had that ticket

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Speaker 3: in my pocket against Man City and then had a

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Speaker 3: couple of calls go against them that allowed City to

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Speaker 3: really sink their teeth into the game and run away

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Speaker 3: for two winners. But like I'm with you basically on

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Speaker 3: every note there, Anthony, I think if you want to

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Speaker 3: have a money line bet here between the two teams,

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Speaker 3: it's Palace because I think you're looking at a team

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Speaker 3: that should win this match. More often than that you're

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Speaker 3: getting plus money. But I think the low event nature

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Speaker 3: of this game does lead me to the drop if

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Speaker 3: you're looking at three way money lines, not just the

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Speaker 3: two ways. So it's drawing nothing. But this is a

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Speaker 3: tough one to break down. I mean when I saw

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Speaker 3: that this would be the first match we'd be talking about,

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Speaker 3: I'm like, oh, boy, Like, if you wanted to give

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Speaker 3: me a match that I would have the most trouble

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Speaker 3: with the way I've been evaluating these teams coming in,

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Speaker 3: it probably would be this one at this venue.

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Speaker 2: I think all three of us have bet Palace all

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Speaker 2: four matches this year, right right, yep, So, and then

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Speaker 2: just will be the first time that we are not

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Speaker 2: doing that. Not one of us is now betting Palace.

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Speaker 3: BJ. What are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Michael, this is like a parent, try and ask

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Speaker 1: them who their favorite child is. And I can't choose

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Speaker 1: between these two teams are two of our favorites on

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Speaker 1: this podcast. But the Crystal Palace match, Anthony already mentioned it.

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Speaker 1: You know they've They've played three Big Six sides where

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Speaker 1: they haven't had much possession, so you can't really take

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Speaker 1: too much away from that when they're placing a team

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Speaker 1: that's not one of the Big Six. But last season,

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Speaker 1: you know, they were obviously one of the best home

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Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League. You know, over a plus

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Speaker 1: ten expected gold differential. Well against non Big six sides

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Speaker 1: at Selhurst Park they only allowed point eight four x

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Speaker 1: G per ninety minutes. And now, as we've talked about

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Speaker 1: many times, Brentford was not good away from home. He

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Speaker 1: only averaged one point one expected goals per match minus

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Speaker 1: eight expected gold differential. So I'm with Anton, how I

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Speaker 1: do like under two and a half goals at minus

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Speaker 1: one eighteen? We have two top eight defensive teams last

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Speaker 1: year and almost every single category Anthony already matched at

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Speaker 1: zeroz Your draws in both meetings under two expected goals

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Speaker 1: the dawn Off Switzer Zaha, They're not that drastic, but uh,

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Speaker 1: you know it is somewhat, you know, does have an effect.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's met over the last two seasons, he's

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Speaker 1: missed six matches. In those six matches, Crystal Palace has

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Speaker 1: averaged only one point twenty five x she per ninety

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Speaker 1: with him in the lineup there at one point four

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Speaker 1: to four xual per ninety, so and it looks like

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Speaker 1: right now that he's doubtful. So I only have two

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Speaker 1: point one seven goals projected, so I'm with Anthony. I

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Speaker 1: like under two and half goals and minus twenty teen.

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Speaker 3: All right, lets stay in London. Then another two thirty

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Speaker 3: pm kickoff on Tuesday at craven Cottage, Fulham plus two

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Speaker 3: thirty hosting Red Hot, Brighton and Hove Albion plus one

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Speaker 3: twenty five road favorites at Bet three six five. The

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Speaker 3: draw here is plus two thirty. Both of these teams

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Speaker 3: were impressive. I think over the weekend one of them won,

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Speaker 3: one of them lost. Fulham they gave it Arsenal everything

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Speaker 3: that they had, right like, I mean that was that

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Speaker 3: was not an easy time for Arsenal. They they did.

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Speaker 3: If you look at the XG like, it looks like

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Speaker 3: it should have been like a walk away win for Arsenal,

190
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Speaker 3: but Fulham have shown like they are. We talked about

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Speaker 3: this in the last episode, that when a team is

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Speaker 3: all pulling in the same direction, when a team is galvanized,

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Speaker 3: when when you're looking at you know, the effort that

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Speaker 3: Mitrovic's is putting in, or the two guys in the midfield,

195
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Speaker 3: Paulina and Prayer, like the rest of the team is

196
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Speaker 3: going to come around to that. So Fulham to me

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Speaker 3: still remains U and I changed my tune from before

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Speaker 3: the season where I thought that I was this was

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Speaker 3: not gonna be a good team. This is a team

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Speaker 3: that I still want to buy, but doing so against Brighton,

201
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Speaker 3: trying to step in front of this train right now

202
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Speaker 3: is not something I want to do. They are in

203
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Speaker 3: form Pascal gross I mean, is he going to be

204
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Speaker 3: the PFA Player of the Year. Looks like he might

205
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Speaker 3: be with the way he's been playing BJ What are

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Speaker 3: your thoughts to your Seagulls and Cottagers?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like both teams to score no at plus

208
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Speaker 1: one ten, so full of They've had a pretty difficult schedule,

209
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Speaker 1: much like Crystal Palace. To start the season, They've had

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Speaker 1: to face both Liverpool and Arsenal in their first four matches.

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Speaker 1: They've only created about three expected goals from open play.

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Speaker 1: They've only held thirty five and a half percent possession

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Speaker 1: on average only twenty five box entries, so not really

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Speaker 1: that you know, stellar offensive performances. Now they have to

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Speaker 1: go up against a Brighton's side that defensively has been

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Speaker 1: really really good, only two point four xtually allowed from

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Speaker 1: open play, only three big scoring chances allowed, and have

218
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Speaker 1: allowed the third fewest shots from inside the penalty area.

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Speaker 1: But this is a type of match similar for Brighton,

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Speaker 1: similar to the Newcastle and Leeds type matches where Brighton

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Speaker 1: can just dominate possession and pin their opponent inside the

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Speaker 1: final third for a majority of the ninety minutes. I mean,

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Speaker 1: so far through their first four matches, Brighton has the

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Speaker 1: fifth most touches in the opponent's attacking area and they've

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Speaker 1: out touched their opponents one hundred and eleven to eighty

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Speaker 1: five in the penalty area. So I struggle to see

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Speaker 1: how Fulham is not just gonna, you know, sit back

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Speaker 1: and basically looked to counter. Well, Brighton's really really good

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Speaker 1: at thwarting any type of counter because they're incredible pressing teams.

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Speaker 1: But Fulham, if you go before the Arsenal match, you

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Speaker 1: know they if you look at the rolling x G

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Speaker 1: over the Arsenal and Fulham match, I mean Arsenal right

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Speaker 1: at the Oda guard goal, they only had point seven

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Speaker 1: x G and then I obviously created a flurry of

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Speaker 1: chances towards the end, but Fulham was really really good

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Speaker 1: defensively for large shares of that match. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: you have a team like Brighton who last year was

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Speaker 1: seventeenth in x G four. They've been pretty good so

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Speaker 1: far this season. But Fulham, you know, before the Arsenal match,

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Speaker 1: they were fourth, you know in shot creating actions allowed,

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Speaker 1: they were top five in terms of box entries allowed.

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Speaker 1: They were only allowed sixteen shots inside the penalty area.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Arsenal got a lot of flurries towards

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Speaker 1: the end because Fulham had a lead. But yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: struggling to see how Fulham's going to create a lot

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Speaker 1: of chances. But they've also been they've been good defensively,

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Speaker 1: So I have both teams score zero projected at minus

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Speaker 1: one twelve. The under two and a half is priced

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Speaker 1: a little too jee for me, so I like the

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Speaker 1: current line of plus one ten.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting because coming into the season, I would have

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Speaker 3: thought that these kind of profile statistical profiles would be

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Speaker 3: flipped right, like Brighton would be the team with the

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Speaker 3: stellar defensive numbers. Their offensive numbers are great, fourth and

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Speaker 3: spectacles for it going so far the season, and then

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Speaker 3: the other hand Fulham, I thought they probably have decent

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Speaker 3: offensive output, but their defense is going to be shambles.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of been the opposite, not saying that their

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Speaker 3: offense has been shambles, but their defensive work has been

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Speaker 3: stronger than going forward. Yeah, an interesting one. I probably

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Speaker 3: won't have the bet here, Anthony. Anything for you Fullham

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Speaker 3: and Brighton and nothing for me.

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Speaker 2: It is interesting to me that Fulham has been the

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Speaker 2: most direct team in the league this year. There are

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Speaker 2: both teams are in the top three in direct attacks. Also,

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Speaker 2: Brighton's second and high turnovers shots created off of high turnovers,

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Speaker 2: So I think that's kind of inflated the Brighton number

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Speaker 2: a little bit and attack. You know, they've had a

269
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Speaker 2: little bit easier time getting into opponents penalty areas than

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Speaker 2: they normally do and getting shots off of that because

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Speaker 2: they're catching opponents higher up the pitch. I don't know

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Speaker 2: how much they're going to get to do that against Fulham,

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Speaker 2: who will likely I mean they are at home, so

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Speaker 2: they probably will come out a little bit. But I

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Speaker 2: do expect, like BJ just said, Brighton to come out

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Speaker 2: and control most of the possession. But again, I mean

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Speaker 2: Fulham's direct approach has been effective, and you know, do

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Speaker 2: I think they're you know, Mitrovitch is going to rob

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Speaker 2: the ball off of one of the Brighton center backs

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Speaker 2: and turn around and kick it into the net. No,

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Speaker 2: but Fulham's defense is pretty good in this match. The

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Speaker 2: one thing that does scare me. Yes, Brighton's defense has

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Speaker 2: been really good to this point in terms of not

284
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Speaker 2: conceding a ton of chances, but they run even luckier

285
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Speaker 2: in terms of not actually conceding goals off of those chances.

286
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Speaker 2: So you know, a little over three expected goals allowed

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Speaker 2: now and they still only conceded one for the season.

288
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Speaker 2: So they are going to let goals in. Hopefully for

289
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Speaker 2: Bja doesn't come in this match, but I will be

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Speaker 2: passing two forty five kickoff.

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Speaker 3: On Tuesday, Southampton four to one home underdogs at Bet

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Speaker 3: three six by versus Chelsea minus won sixty seven to draw.

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Speaker 3: Here is plus three to fifty. Said the word galvanize

294
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Speaker 3: it before a galvanized performance from Chelsea winning with ten

295
00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,079
Speaker 3: men against less steriteam going back to that word, who

296
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Speaker 3: was kind of the opposite albanized? Right now? I was

297
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,839
Speaker 3: impressed with Chelsea. I know that Lester is probably a

298
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Speaker 3: little unlucky not to tie that update a couple big

299
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Speaker 3: chances late, but this is a team that just knows

300
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Speaker 3: how to see themselves out of these kind of tricky situations.

301
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Speaker 3: They did that. Connor Gallagher maybe he's done at Chelsea.

302
00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the second yellow was unlucky because

303
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,880
Speaker 3: of the there was a hospital passed from Cooperrea. But

304
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,040
Speaker 3: still wonder what they're going to do in that midfield

305
00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:26,320
Speaker 3: here going forward. I thought Southampton also, we're pretty good

306
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,440
Speaker 3: against Manchester United. You could argue that they deserved maybe

307
00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,679
Speaker 3: a point out of that loss. They lost one nothing

308
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,640
Speaker 3: and a good goal from Bruno, but the XG was

309
00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,240
Speaker 3: basically suggesting it was a coin flip. And defensively Southampton's

310
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,200
Speaker 3: been a little bit better than I think all of

311
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:44,080
Speaker 3: us would have imagined. I still think that this is

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00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,640
Speaker 3: a Chelsea byspot on a spread min as one and

313
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:48,959
Speaker 3: a half might as soon a half, however you want

314
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Speaker 3: to get away with it. I just don't like the

315
00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,600
Speaker 3: match up here for Southampton. This is a team that

316
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,840
Speaker 3: makes too many mistakes against a team like Chelsea that

317
00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,839
Speaker 3: is just so poised on the ball. So bj a

318
00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 3: feeling you're coming with me here.

319
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny you mentioned mistakes because this matchup has

320
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,160
Speaker 1: been one of the more lopsided matchups between two Premier

321
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,400
Speaker 1: League teams over the last few years. So Thomas tutelas

322
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 1: face Hassen Hudle's side three times since he took over

323
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Speaker 1: Chelsea in the Premier League. Chelsea has won those matches

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Speaker 1: by a combined score of ten to two. XG has

325
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:23,240
Speaker 1: been nine to two point three. Chelsea's outshot them fifty

326
00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,920
Speaker 1: three to thirteen and has created twelve big scoring chances

327
00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,040
Speaker 1: compared to just three for Southampton. And what it has

328
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,560
Speaker 1: to do with is the fact that Southampton playing this

329
00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,880
Speaker 1: fornetic pressing style taking a lot of chances. Well, Chelsea

330
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,600
Speaker 1: was second in the Premier League in offensive passes, for

331
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:42,760
Speaker 1: defensive action and pressure success rate allowed last season. So

332
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,760
Speaker 1: I am going to take a little bit of a

333
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:47,480
Speaker 1: risk here, or not only the list, but I'm gonna

334
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,040
Speaker 1: take a shot. I'm gonna go Chelsea alt spread minus

335
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,040
Speaker 1: two and a half at plus four point fifty at

336
00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,120
Speaker 1: bet three six five. I've projected Chelsea minus two and

337
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,160
Speaker 1: a half at a little round twenty nine percent us

338
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 1: four to fifty is little over eighteen percent, so I'm

339
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,760
Speaker 1: actually getting ten percent value to take a shot on

340
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,840
Speaker 1: Chelsea just completely blowing out Southampton for a third time.

341
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that actually, right, Jankoboxi.

342
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 1: Is back in the midfield for Chelsea, so that'll help

343
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:14,800
Speaker 1: them sure up any of the problems that they had

344
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:15,360
Speaker 1: with Gallagher.

345
00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, poor Connor. Yeah, I'm with you.

346
00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 1: They get him back to Crystal Palace.

347
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,800
Speaker 3: Palace, maybe maybe we'll take them over it ever did,

348
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 3: But I'm with you. I think this feels like Southampton

349
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:28,040
Speaker 3: is the type of team that if I'm going to

350
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 3: bet against them, especially if I'm laying juice with, it's

351
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,120
Speaker 3: because of the way they press and the space they

352
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 3: leave behind them and the mistakes. If everyone's not pressing

353
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 3: in Unison, it can get ugly real quick. So if

354
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 3: you are betting against Southampton, it usually does behoove you

355
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 3: to go with a blowout, although it didn't pay off

356
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,320
Speaker 3: last week. Anthony, what do you have here for Saints

357
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 3: and Blues?

358
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:47,520
Speaker 1: Yeah?

359
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,160
Speaker 2: Look, you guys kind of outline my hesitancy here. My

360
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,000
Speaker 2: number suggests I should bet Southampton plus one. I want

361
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,520
Speaker 2: to bet Southampton plus one, but I am concerned and

362
00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,560
Speaker 2: I am concerned because when I look at the Chelsea

363
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 2: numbers I did this prime to the Saturday match against Lester,

364
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 2: I don't really read a ton into even what happened

365
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 2: in the last sixty minutes because of the red card

366
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 2: kind of just throws everything out of whack. Chelsea only

367
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 2: attempted one shot prior to that. Again, I think that

368
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,840
Speaker 2: has so much more to do with what Lester, what

369
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,920
Speaker 2: was wrong with Lester? But you know, Kai Havertz and

370
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 2: Mason Mount are not producing at the levels that we

371
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 2: have expected them and that they have produced in the past.

372
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 2: Mount was, you know, eleven goals, ten assists last year

373
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,920
Speaker 2: over zero point seven xgu plus x A per ninety.

374
00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 2: This year, his shots have disappeared, his chance creation has disappeared. Haverds,

375
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 2: you know, he's under two tenths of a goal extup

376
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,880
Speaker 2: ninety through you know, four matches. So I know the

377
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 2: minute I go to fade Chelsea here, they're gonna find

378
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 2: their form right and they're gonna rebound to the players

379
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 2: that we know they are. And that's what that's what

380
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:45,840
Speaker 2: kind of scares me here. But you know, we've kind

381
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,640
Speaker 2: of I've talked about this on past episodes, and I'm like, Okay, well,

382
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,560
Speaker 2: what what's the missing link here for Chelsea. I don't

383
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 2: know that Southampton is is going like to just solve

384
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,160
Speaker 2: their problems because a lot of what happened in the

385
00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 2: meeting in the seven nil thrashing last year that really

386
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 2: inflates at the numbers b Ja was talking about was

387
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,399
Speaker 2: Werner causing a ton of problems in behind. I don't

388
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,919
Speaker 2: know that they have that. Maybe you know, like Roz,

389
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,600
Speaker 2: I guess, but I think Southampton's midfield continues to be

390
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 2: extremely underrated. You look at the numbers every game they play,

391
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 2: whether they played Spurs opening week, United last week, Leads

392
00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 2: second week of the season like they're playing even or

393
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 2: out playing in the Lester match, the midfield they just

394
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 2: lose in the boxes and Chelsea's performance in the attacking

395
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,640
Speaker 2: box just scares me right now, and so I lean

396
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,239
Speaker 2: toward the Saints, but I will see if I end

397
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 2: up betting. I'm gonna make that a game time decision

398
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,199
Speaker 2: as I wait to see how the market settles and

399
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,159
Speaker 2: COVID chitch and Georgina is good enough, So you know,

400
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,800
Speaker 2: I'm not too worried about the Chelsea midfield. But there's

401
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 2: no depth there and Covid Chitch hasn't played really this season,

402
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 2: so you know there could be some issues for Chelsea

403
00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,119
Speaker 2: with Conte and now Gallagher out some ruben Loft's cheek in.

404
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:51,880
Speaker 3: The midfield or something.

405
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 2: I don't love that.

406
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 3: The headliner on Tuesday and the entire midweek slate perhaps

407
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,200
Speaker 3: the game of the year leads United plus one fifteen

408
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 3: favorites at BET three six five hosting Everden plus two thirty,

409
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 3: the draw plus two fifty. The Neil Malpi revolution gets underway,

410
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,640
Speaker 3: most likely he comes over from Brighton to put up

411
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 3: what eight x g and three goals in the season

412
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,360
Speaker 3: for Frank Lampard and the topees. But the thing here

413
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 3: is the shape should just improve immensely you're playing. They

414
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 3: were playing Dwight McNeil as the focal point of their

415
00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 3: attack the last couple of weeks him or Gordon kind

416
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 3: of like switching on and off. That's not going to work.

417
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 3: They needed a center forward. They got one that should

418
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,720
Speaker 3: put everybody in the right spot, which I think actually

419
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 3: should just help this team be able to play through

420
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 3: the lines and defend better, because they were not defending

421
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 3: well against Brentford last week. I think this is a

422
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,639
Speaker 3: decent spot for the Toppies. I think this line is

423
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 3: going to move towards Leeds United as we get closer

424
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 3: to the game as well, so you might be able

425
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 3: to get a bigger number. But I'll be on Everden here.

426
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 3: I'm buying low and hoping that the arrival of Malpi

427
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,280
Speaker 3: just at least, like I said, takes all the square

428
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,120
Speaker 3: pegs and puts them in square, because it's not been

429
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,200
Speaker 3: like that to start the season for this team. BJ

430
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 3: your thoughts here.

431
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a pass for me. I mean I

432
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,959
Speaker 1: have this projected pretty close to what the market is.

433
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 1: It's you know, it's funny, Michael, because this is I

434
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,920
Speaker 1: think this was Frank Lampard's first match in charge under

435
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 1: Efferton last year when they beat Leads three nothing.

436
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 3: Just was his first Premier League win, I believe. Yeah.

437
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 1: I mean Everton they've been I think dull is the

438
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: word I would use, just not much attacking threat. I

439
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 1: mean the yes they create, you know, one expected goal

440
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 1: against Brentford, they get a goal, that's great, but I

441
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 1: mean Brentford credit just a flurry of chances towards the end.

442
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: And we've talked about it quite a bit but Everton

443
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 1: last year and even it's been a big problem this

444
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 1: year is they just can't play through pressure. So how's

445
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,640
Speaker 1: that really going to work against a leads side under

446
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 1: Marsh that's been pressing close to just as frenetic as

447
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 1: they did or be Also now it's been a little

448
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 1: more structured, a little more team pressing. But yeah, for me,

449
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 1: this is a pass. I have leads projected at plus

450
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 1: one thirteenth, so I'm right on where the market is.

451
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:57,919
Speaker 1: I was looking maybe at a total because I do

452
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,479
Speaker 1: have three goals projected, so maybe if you comes down

453
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 1: a little bit, I'll play an over Anthony.

454
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts here? I think you're a little

455
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 3: bit higher on leads than the market and you have

456
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 3: no love for Everton.

457
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,920
Speaker 2: No, I don't really love this match. I do love

458
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,679
Speaker 2: Everton just because of how happy they make you. But

459
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: you know, I think this is interesting because Leeds like

460
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 2: the quick vertical attack, right, you know, win the ball,

461
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,400
Speaker 2: one pass forward, two pass forward, break the lines, extreme vertical.

462
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 2: That's their way of attacking. But they haven't really played

463
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 2: a team it's going to really sit deep all season

464
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: and so you know, they get Southampton that's just like

465
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,199
Speaker 2: a pressing, manic back and forth, high lines, you know,

466
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,880
Speaker 2: twenty yards between the defensive lines kind of match right,

467
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 2: And then they play Brighton, who dominates the possession. They

468
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 2: can't really get out their own half. They're getting pressed themselves.

469
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: They play Wolves, you know, who kind of pressed but like, yeah,

470
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 2: they're not really sitting deep either. So all the Leads

471
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,360
Speaker 2: matches this year have kind of been different than this one,

472
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 2: where I think Everton has committed to this lower block

473
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 2: and I think Leads are going to have some struggles

474
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 2: breaking that down because they're not going to get to

475
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 2: so easily connect their vertical passes, and I think they

476
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: are vulnerable the other way. That was the biggest problem

477
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 2: with Leipzig last year was they were bad as a

478
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 2: favorite in the Bundesliga because they would get overexposed and

479
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 2: they would get over committing and then one ball, one

480
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 2: pass and somebody's in behind them, right, And they haven't

481
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: had that opportunity yet because they are a lower table team,

482
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 2: but they do kind of risk that here. So if

483
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: I like Everton, I don't hate a look on them

484
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: actually from a matchup point of view, But overall, my

485
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 2: numbers good and I'm going to pass yeah.

486
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 3: I mean, and when you consider the two goals that

487
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 3: Everton player actually scored for Everton last year, they have three.

488
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 3: One of them was scored by Aston Villas Luca Dean

489
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 3: and an own goal. Their only two other two goals

490
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: have been boss over the top, one for Pickford and

491
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 3: one from Connor. Cody went to Tomorrow. Graham went to

492
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 3: Anthony Gordon, who looks like he's staying. But we'll never know.

493
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 3: That's the other thing, right we're recording this.

494
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 2: If somebody wants to pay him that much money, they

495
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 2: should sew well.

496
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 1: I mean, after if they're gonna pay for Falfanna, the

497
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 1: amount of monthery're paying for him, I'm gonna be surprised

498
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,360
Speaker 1: that they have enough money and left over to pay

499
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 1: for Gordon.

500
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 2: I mean, never be surprised football team's having money. Never

501
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:13,719
Speaker 2: be surprised by that.

502
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 3: Yes, I mean Barcelona. Barcelona is still doing their thing.

503
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: They so who knows all right? Wednesday two thirty pm

504
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: kickoff Arsenal minus two twenty three favorites at Bet three

505
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 3: six five taking on Aston Villa five to one. The

506
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,439
Speaker 3: draw here is plus three fifty. Anthony, you and I

507
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 3: were on opposite sides of aston Villa in west Ham.

508
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 3: I'll take a quick victory leapt here. But it's not

509
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 3: because of the west Ham call. It's just because this

510
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 3: aston Villa team is so much worse than I think

511
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 3: people realize, and they got off to a hot start

512
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 3: under Gerrard and for some reason, that hot start is

513
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 3: still being assigned to this team ten months later, whatever

514
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 3: however long it's been. It was November he took over.

515
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 3: People still think it's that aston Villa and it's not.

516
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 3: This is a team that is has generated over one

517
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 3: expected goal just once this season and it came against Everton.

518
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 3: Otherwise they've struggled to generate anything, including a game to

519
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 3: it's not a muscling game when they played west Ham today,

520
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 3: but the onus was on ascid Villa to win at

521
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 3: home against a team that had scored zero goals and

522
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 3: had won zero points to start the season. And they

523
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 3: couldn't do it. They just couldn't break them down. They

524
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 3: they created point three expected goals according to point only

525
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: a load point three or yeah, what was it? Point

526
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 3: three point three? It was like it was yeah, you know,

527
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: But the point is, like you need to generate if

528
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 3: you have Philip Catino and even like Danny Ing, z

529
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 3: Ali Watkins, Jacob Ramsey came on the pitch, looked lively again,

530
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 3: looked better at that team. Right, So that's the thing, right,

531
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 3: like this he's getting I think he's getting it wrong.

532
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 3: And this is a spot where I'd almost one hundred

533
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: times out of one hundred would be looking to bet

534
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 3: the underdog against a team like Arsenal who's just running.

535
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 2: Away, right, I don't know.

536
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, So it's like this is this is a team

537
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: that I really want to bet. I like the under

538
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 3: Moore and I probably will get there on Villa. But

539
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: boy have they been bad.

540
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 1: They have.

541
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: And you know, if you're if you're the person who

542
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: keeps deeming aston Villa, or you know the market keeps

543
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 2: moving these lines towards Villa, please give me a call.

544
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 2: We can start a syndicate. You know, we'll bet Villa

545
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 2: every week. We'll get together and we'll watch them create

546
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: point four XG and hopefully, you know, get a goal

547
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: out of that and then win one mill or straight by.

548
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 2: Or you know, we'll teach our guys to have crosses

549
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: from corners not go out of play before we score

550
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 2: off with them. But the market keeps loving this team.

551
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 2: I mean I bet them in plus one thirty five

552
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 2: and they closed plus one ten. I'm not a big

553
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 2: like CLV as everything guy in soccer, but they moved

554
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 2: again like they had a dreadful performance today and the

555
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: market has moved toward them yet again in this Arsenal match.

556
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 2: Arsenal has been bet against once again. It came down.

557
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 2: It was forty to fifty, down about two twenty to

558
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: twenty three. I think was what you said. So who

559
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 2: are these people and who are they betting Villa and

560
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 2: what are they seeing? Right? Because I still think that

561
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 2: it's going to work out. I'm buying in. I'm saying

562
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 2: that eventually they will put this final third possession and

563
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 2: turn it into shots. Eventually, like the chain of events

564
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 2: that that starts with their decent midfield and ends with

565
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 2: their good attackers will connect. But it just it's not happening,

566
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 2: and I think Garrard deserves criticisms for that. I will

567
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 2: say that their defense is still very good though, by

568
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: the way, that was without their two top center, but

569
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,959
Speaker 2: holding holding west Ham to you know nothing basically at

570
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: the fucking goal was was good. So you know, I

571
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: don't have any any bet on this match because it

572
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 2: did move down. I wanted to get Villa out a

573
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 2: flat one point two five. Now it's like minus one

574
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 2: thirty and I have no interest there, so I'm going

575
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 2: to pass. That's that's all I got. I'm very upset.

576
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I I have I have a Villa in

577
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: the top Midlands bet and it's like not it's still live,

578
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 2: not in bad shape because Wolves and Leicester have been

579
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: worse since.

580
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: Forrest is awful. So that bet is one they finished.

581
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: They could finish fourteenth and we could still win that bet.

582
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 2: What if all three of them just get relegated and yea.

583
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: One of them has got to stay up right, Forest

584
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: is in there too, so one go down.

585
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 2: But you know besides them, Look, I still think we're

586
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: decent for that bet.

587
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, we're fine.

588
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: I mean, what, it's only four matches, That's what I

589
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: will say.

590
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's only been four matches. They have shown nothing

591
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 3: going forward. Arsenal and those four matches has shown a

592
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 3: very robust defense that can kind of just handle itself.

593
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 3: It's they're not making the same mistakes I think last

594
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: season when we first started this show, and we're handicapping Arsenal,

595
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 3: one of the things. We're saying. You just can't trust

596
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 3: them to not shoot themselves in the foot defensively.

597
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 2: But right now you can and on Saturday.

598
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 3: Yeah that's true. That was the first time. But they're

599
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 3: just like much more organized, They're much more composed in

600
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 3: the back, and I just it's really hard to imagine

601
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 3: Villa scoring more than one unless something crazy happens. Scoring

602
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 3: one at all probably be a chore. So I think

603
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 3: the under here two and a half because like you

604
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 3: said that, the Villa defense is still still in good form.

605
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 3: How you're getting plus money on two and a half

606
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 3: under two and a half at bet three six fives.

607
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 3: I'll be there, BJ. What are your thoughts?

608
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, this is I'm gonna be with you on

609
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: the under. I mean, I mean, what's the reason why

610
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: Arsenal's not shooting themselves in the foot? Uh and playing

611
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: much better defensively? Well, it's William Saliba. I'm the best

612
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: defender in the Premier League now. I mean, the guy

613
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: is incredible. He's turned his Arsenal defense.

614
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 2: Now, he had an own goal like two weeks ago,

615
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 2: he kicked in his own nest.

616
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: It's a flu campany don't.

617
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 2: I love three?

618
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: Nothing?

619
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 2: So I love Saliba, but that was funny.

620
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, the song is awesome too. I mean, it's just,

621
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 1: you know, it's just they were I think Arsenal fans

622
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: were singing it for like literally an hour during the

623
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: entire match. It was it was wonderful.

624
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: And people asked Artela yet why he like froze him out,

625
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 2: hated him last year and and exoed him to Marseille

626
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 2: and then brought him back in because it is.

627
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: Just to build him up. I mean, and it looks

628
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 1: like worked out pretty well, Anthony. Yeah, I mean this

629
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: is this is under two and a half of plus

630
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: one ten for me Aston Villa under Gerrard Michael, averaging

631
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: one point one x g per ninety minutes. They have

632
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 1: created twenty big scoring chances in thirty one matches and

633
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: now they're going against an Arsenal defense that has conceded

634
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: three expected goals in four matches. Now, Arsenal, there will

635
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 1: be some offense, offensive aggression coming down a little bit.

636
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 1: I mean, eleven goals off of eight point six expected.

637
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: I mean, it's you know, it's still.

638
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 2: Are Gabby Jesus is your striker?

639
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 1: Yeah?

640
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 3: And the schedule, the schedule is has schedule has been easier.

641
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be the first one am. The schedule has

642
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: been easy. But you know what, Arsenal did what they

643
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: were supposed to do. They got twelve points in four

644
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: matches and they're gonna get another three points here. But

645
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 1: the thing is is that the reason I love the

646
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: under is, you know, even though Diego Carlos and Tyrone

647
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: Mings a route that is gonna make aston Villa go

648
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: back to what they were last year, which was this

649
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: very counter attacking, like direct attacking type team that sat

650
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: incredibly deep. And I think that's what's gonna happen here again,

651
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: because if you're without those two starting center backs, well,

652
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to play more defensive midfielders, you're gonna

653
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: have to play more compact and you're gonna have to

654
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: protect those two guys, and you can't really play open

655
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: with the way Arsenal is playing right now. And I

656
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: already mentioned against full I mean Arsenal up until the

657
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 1: Odigard goal only had point seven XG. Like they wasn't

658
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: like they were like incredible offensively and we're just getting

659
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: chance after chance. So and the last thing I'll say

660
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: is that you know, these two teams played towards the

661
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: end last season when Yard was in charge. It was

662
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: right after Arsenal loss to nothing in the midweek to Liverpool.

663
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: They went to Villa Park, they won one nothing aston

664
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: Villa created point four xg had eight shots and seventeen

665
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: touches in the penalty, which is like what they do

666
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: every single match. So yeah, so I'm with you, Michael.

667
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: I have two point three goals projected, so under two

668
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: and a half goals at plus one ten at bet

669
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 1: three sixty five is where I'm going.

670
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 3: You know. I called Leeds and Everdon perhaps the game

671
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 3: of the year, but I think this next one might

672
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: actually be the game of the year. Bourne myth plus

673
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 3: two seventy five hosting Wolverhampton plus one oh five the

674
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 3: draw up plus two forty Anthony. Last episode we talked

675
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 3: about Bournemouth and I believe verbatim your quote was there's

676
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 3: going to be a time to buy low on this team,

677
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 3: but this isn't it, And that wasn't.

678
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: So now, Yes, you were very that's fun nine.

679
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe it's time. Yeah, it's definitely time. It's it's time.

680
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 3: I think all three of us are going to be

681
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: in on the cherries here and it's going to be ugly.

682
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they've conceded sixteen goals in uh four matches.

683
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 3: They have a win, that's the best part.

684
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: Their offensive numbers the reason worse.

685
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 3: I mean, look at what more win that ever did.

686
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 2: And it's look, I mean, let's talk schedules. I mean,

687
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: they played Arsenal right, they played City, Liverpool, they played

688
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: Manchester City. I mean those are probably the three best

689
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 2: teams in the league to the first three matches. So

690
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 2: let's say there a disagree on Liverpool.

691
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 3: But they want to know. They want to know when

692
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 3: they don't play the top six team this exactly.

693
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: And and and they were fine, Like they scored a

694
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 2: couple of you know, they scored off a set piece

695
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 2: and mostly stymied Villa, although what does that even mean anymore?

696
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 2: But you know, all the attacks they played are considerably better.

697
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 2: And you're clearly getting a great number here at home.

698
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 2: BJ Michael. Where would you rank Wolf in the league

699
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 2: out of twenty right now? Just true talent?

700
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: True talent?

701
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, just like your projections.

702
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to just look at like

703
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: straight like roster talent, they're probably around like tenth or

704
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: eleventh if you want to.

705
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: Know what I'm saying, Like, sorry, sorry, based on their

706
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 2: you know where you project.

707
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 1: Based on their performances. Yes, I mean they're like sixteenth

708
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: or seventeenth, Like they're.

709
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 2: Right, and I have them fifteenth. So in what earth

710
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 2: is the fifteenth best team at a road favorite by

711
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 2: a half a goal against anybody in the same league

712
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: as them, And I like, that doesn't make any sense.

713
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: I'm nowhere near it. I make Wolves plus one forty

714
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 2: five and so you know I love Born Myth plus

715
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 2: a half. It's my best bet. We'll we'll talk more

716
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: about it later. But this market is just crazy. Wolves

717
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: have not created more than one point one expected goals

718
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 2: in any match, and Aston Villa was the same favorite

719
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 2: and opening day. Think about what the opening day perception

720
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: was of Villa compared to Bourne Myth. Think about what

721
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 2: that means villain Wolves is now. I mean you're saying

722
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 2: that either Wolves are you run around tenth or that

723
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: Bournemouth have fallen so far because they lost to the

724
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: three best teams in the league. I mean, the market

725
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: is crazy here, So give me Burnemouth plus a half.

726
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 2: I love it, and they'll probably lose because they really

727
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 2: are bad, but they're going to get points eventually, so

728
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be there when it happens.

729
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 3: I am all in on this one plus two seventy

730
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 3: five on the money line at bet three six five

731
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 3: for me. Wolves averaging under one expected goal per game?

732
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 3: Do you want to guess how many according to understand,

733
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: how many expected goals Bournemouth has on the season so far?

734
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 2: One point three?

735
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: It's one point three.

736
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 3: I think between one point one and one point three,

737
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 3: depending on what you're looking at. They just last nine

738
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 3: to nothing. They haven't scored in what better time? Three weeks.

739
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 3: This is the best time to bet on a team

740
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 3: that is the relegation odds on relegation favorite boy, is

741
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: it going to be bad? Get on a baby BJ

742
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:55,479
Speaker 3: What do you have?

743
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'll be joining you guys on the

744
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: money line, but I'm gonna play another bet. I'm gonna

745
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: go back to my patent. Both teams score or no.

746
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: I mean this is at even money. That's crazy. So

747
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: you mentioned Borne with one point three expectables will only

748
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: point eight x gief from open play like in four matches.

749
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 1: I understand the schedule has been difficult, but in four

750
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 1: matches they've attempted twenty one shots. They have nineteen box

751
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 1: centuries and forty touches in the opponent's penalty Obviously, all

752
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: those are dead last in the Premier League.

753
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 2: Teen box centries.

754
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you know, I know it's bad. But Wolves,

755
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: I mean, let's talk about them. They're actually, you know what,

756
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 1: three point nine expected goals and they've only scored twice,

757
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 1: So I hay positive aggression right for Wolves, Well, they're

758
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: at like, they're at a little over four expected threat

759
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 1: that's fifteenth in the Premier League. They have twenty three

760
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: shots from inside the opponent's penalty area. The only team

761
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: that has less than that is their opponent Bourne. Myth.

762
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: Wolves leads the league in shots from outside the box.

763
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 1: They have twenty eight shots from outside the box.

764
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 3: Score.

765
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, for those who don't for those you know, maybe

766
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: don't know this, but the x G per shot for

767
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: a shot coming from outside the box is point zero three.

768
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: I mean, they took thirteen shots from outside the box

769
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: against Tottenham, so, you know, defensively, I mean they've been

770
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 1: all right, uh, you know, four point six non penalty

771
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: expected goals and four matches only you know, three and

772
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: three point three of them have been from open play.

773
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,720
Speaker 1: You know before Sunday's match against Newcastle. Listen, they against

774
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 1: Leeds and against Fulham they control fifty eight percent possession,

775
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: So my guess is they're probably gonna control out of possession.

776
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: It's probably gonna be their own their own third and

777
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: this is just going to be an ugly, ugly Premier

778
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: League match that I one thousand percent will have on

779
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,439
Speaker 1: TV one on Wednesday. So give me both Bourne myth

780
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: plus two seventy five and both teams have scored no

781
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: at even money. Let's hope for a Bourne with one

782
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: nothing win.

783
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: He's betting on Jose sigh indirectly. It's just it's just

784
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 2: grace slick, how far you have come. Nothing nothing is sacred.

785
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 3: If you wanted to know why this podcast attracted such

786
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: a wonderful sponsors, because look at us talking up Bournemouth Wolves.

787
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 3: I mean, look at look at the slate that it's

788
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 3: going up against Arsenal versus.

789
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: Villa by the way, and by the way, if this

790
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: isn't the spot to bed on Bournemouth and they do

791
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 1: lose this, they're on the road at Nningham Forest next

792
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 1: week or this weekend.

793
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, well we'll talk about then in a second.

794
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: But I mean this is like, if you want to

795
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 3: understand the ups and downs of betting on soccer, it's

796
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 3: this match right now, because you know exactly how this

797
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 3: is gonna go. I can tell you how this match

798
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 3: is gonna go. You're getting a great number on Bournemouth.

799
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 3: You should feel good. I'm this number might even come

800
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 3: down a little bit because I think that people like

801
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 3: Anthony was saying, like, you can't lay this kind of

802
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 3: number with Wolves on the road, with the way they're playing.

803
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 3: It's everything's gonna check it the closing line value, every

804
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 3: You're gonna take every box of like this is a

805
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 3: good bet. And then Ruben Neves is gonna score worldy

806
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 3: and you're gonna lose one nothing And that's that's just

807
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 3: how it is. But you're gonna go to bed at

808
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 3: night knowing I made the right bet. Here, let's talk

809
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 3: about not ninga Forrest. They're traveling to the Etty head

810
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 3: Man City minus fourteen hundred. At home Forrest twenty eight

811
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,959
Speaker 3: to one. At pet three six five, the draws eleven

812
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 3: to one. Bourne myth they were thirty five to one.

813
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 3: We had this discussion about the Bourne myth line when

814
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 3: they played City. Will they be the biggest underdog of

815
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 3: the season. It looks like they probably will be, judging

816
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 3: by where Forrest is. I mean, for it's becoming a joke,

817
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 3: but Forrest to have another player, uh low, and I

818
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 3: from I think about.

819
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:18,479
Speaker 1: Twenty now, I think it's eighteen, right, eighteen, Okay, wow,

820
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 1: let's let's put up. Let's put up like.

821
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 2: None of them started like they.

822
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: Were in how many how many players will Nottingham Forrests

823
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 1: have signed before the window closes. It's each take a.

824
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 3: Guess they'd be around. I think I don't. I can't

825
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 3: see them signing more than what they have.

826
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: I'm going to twenty one, I think. I think it's

827
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: I think they're sticking the deadline day. They're going to

828
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: be incredibly busy. They're just going to anybody who's available,

829
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: just boom, give me them.

830
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 3: It just hasn't come off though. I thought that the

831
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 3: match again.

832
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 2: I mean they're still starting the same defense they did

833
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 2: last year, right, yeah, yeah, basically the same. I mean

834
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: Remo came off the bench, so I guess maybe before

835
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: they could start against it. But it doesn't matter.

836
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 3: One thing. That was a little strange I thought from

837
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 3: the Forest Tottenham match was that they kind of did

838
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 3: exactly what you don't want to do against Tottenham. They

839
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 3: I mean they had a lot of the ball and

840
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 3: they were forcing you know, low percentage shots from outside

841
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 3: the box or a lowest percentage pass and Tottenham is

842
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 3: just you could see. I think Peter Jury on the

843
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 3: commentary was just like you can see, Tottenham is just

844
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 3: on like their the edge of their seats waiting for

845
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 3: them to cough up the ball so they could strike.

846
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 3: And there were a ton of counter attacking chances for

847
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 3: Tottenham to expect to goals. Bear that out. So while

848
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 3: Forrest had a lot of the ball relative to like

849
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 3: what you'd expect when they're they're playing Tottenham, very very

850
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 3: little in terms of scoring chances in Tottenham, I thought

851
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,399
Speaker 3: took them, took them to school a little bit that said,

852
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 3: I mean this is unplayable. I think if you want

853
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 3: to have a little bit of fun and just pray

854
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 3: for chaos, you sprinkle forest money line and if you

855
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 3: want to go first goal is fine. Yeah, and you

856
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: have been We've seen that.

857
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: Newcastle they went down two to Villa at dinner last

858
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 2: year they went down two.

859
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 3: Palace I think wins fourth to the last six wins.

860
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 3: They've come from behind from two that includes news scored.

861
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: Question is is Pep bored? Is he just bored of playing?

862
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 3: Well?

863
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 2: He's testing the Michael Cox theory.

864
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.

865
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 2: If you guys saw The Athletic. Michael Cox wrote an

866
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 2: article that in order to balance the Bundesliga byron to

867
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 2: start every game down one nil Michae Cox the Athletic

868
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: and it was funny and people were poking fun at it.

869
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: And then somebody one of my friends tweeted last week

870
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 2: he said, Uh, maybe Pep is just testing this and

871
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: you know, having City go down to two boards every

872
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 2: match try to come back to win.

873
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 3: But I think it's actually a bigger trend, right because

874
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 3: you think about the liver Liverpool, right, they're they're they've

875
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 3: been giving up early forman Yes, except for Bourdon, they're

876
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 3: the exception to the rule again, but I think, like

877
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 3: you bring up a good point, like if you do

878
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 3: if you really want to have like a little bit

879
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: of fun betting it like a first goal for for

880
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 3: Forrest is fine. But other than that, I don't really

881
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 3: have much much to say here BJ. What about you?

882
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have much either. The total is set

883
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: at four. I think that might be the highest one

884
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 1: of the season, right, might be the highest one we'll

885
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 1: see maybe all season. Yeah, there's no, there's just no

886
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: chance I can play Noddingham Force now course will be

887
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 1: an interesting team though as we go throughout the season.

888
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: Is once this trans Wando finally closes and they're they're

889
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:09,240
Speaker 1: crazy owner, just stop spending money, and they're they're forced

890
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: to actually play the players they've bought, Like, it will

891
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 1: be interesting to see how they come together as a

892
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,479
Speaker 1: team and if they're able to find some type of movie.

893
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 3: I think you can say like they have just too many.

894
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 1: New players that are just came in, Like it's just

895
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 1: really hard to just throw a bunch of players on

896
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: the pitch and just say hey, play this system and

897
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 1: have it all work out. So yeah, and you.

898
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 3: Know there's there's tough for them too.

899
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 1: So uh yeah next week against Bourne myth that will

900
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 1: be uh for this weekend against Bourne with that will

901
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: be an interesting one. But yeah, no, just pass on

902
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 1: this one.

903
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 2: Let's say if it does get to City, I actually have.

904
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 1: Some value on both teams to score. No, but like

905
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: the way City has been playing, I have no interest

906
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 1: in playing that ever again in the city.

907
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 2: I would bet the under four if it got there,

908
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 2: but it's like minus one thirty five forty and that's

909
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 2: a little too juicy. But if it gets down in

910
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 2: one twenty, no Premier League total should be four, especially

911
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 2: with the team like naughtyam Forrest playing. So I mean,

912
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 2: I'll take the under if they're just gonna give it

913
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:01,919
Speaker 2: to me, But at this point three seven to five

914
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: is a little too low.

915
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: I think the way to put Forrest is that their

916
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 3: ceiling could be a lot higher than anybody thinks, just

917
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 3: because if everything comes off. But we'll get to that,

918
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 3: you know, when when the window shuts and as we

919
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 3: see some more results, because I still do think Steve Cooper.

920
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, their owner, Their owner's Wikipedia page is a wild ride.

921
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: If anybody took a shot at charlesten to that and

922
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 2: not like that, that's that is yours Charlotte.

923
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: Well he deserved that.

924
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 3: Speaking of him, let's let's know he didn't. He's done

925
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 3: that with Evert too. I mean, all right, we'll save

926
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 3: that for I think he would say other people can

927
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: talk about that. We're here to talk about the betting.

928
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 3: West Ham plus two eighty they're hosting Charlotts and Spurs

929
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 3: minus one ten the draws plus two eighty here at

930
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 3: Bet three six five West tamor Hilarius. Right now, they

931
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 3: just look like a completely different team than what we

932
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 3: saw last year when it was like a little bit more.

933
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 3: They're very high event. They could win at any on

934
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 3: a moment's notice against any team. They could lose against

935
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 3: any team. Now they kind of just they look like

936
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: a David moys team. They look like a classic David Moyst.

937
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,479
Speaker 1: They've peaked. Yeah, so what happens in our David Moyes

938
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: that this is what happens every single time you reach

939
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: your peak and then it's nothing but downhill.

940
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,479
Speaker 3: This is also tough, I think a tough matchup for

941
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 3: west Ham because of what we just were talking about

942
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,959
Speaker 3: with forced against Spurs, which is this is a team

943
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 3: that doesn't particularly want the ball out their feet for

944
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: sixty percent of the match. But the Spurs are going

945
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 3: to be okay with that, and they're going to wait

946
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 3: for you know, Ben Rama or four and as or

947
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 3: Bowen to make a mistake, take a low percentag shot

948
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 3: and encounter. I think west Ham is is probably the

949
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 3: play according to the numbers, but the matchup scares me

950
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 3: a little bit here Anthony talking to us about your Spurs.

951
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm taking west Ham plus a half minus one ten.

952
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 2: A little worried about Spurs, you know. I think there's

953
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: a balance. There's a balance between what Conte wants, which is, Okay,

954
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 2: you can have the ball in non dangerous areas and

955
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 2: you're not going to create many chances off of that,

956
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 2: and we're always going to feel secure defensively despite that.

957
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,720
Speaker 2: But if you listen to what Conte said postmatch against

958
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 2: Wolves and when he showed on the touch line today

959
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 2: against Forest, that has not been the case. And Spurs

960
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: have defensively teetered and they have gotten very fortunate in

961
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 2: the last two matches to not concede because yes, Wolves

962
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:15,720
Speaker 2: did take a lot of shots from outside the box

963
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 2: and Forrest didn't get a ton of clear, clear scoring opportunities,

964
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 2: but there were a lot of opportunities where they could

965
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 2: have and a better attacking team, a more direct attacking team,

966
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 2: a team with better attacking players, would take advantage of that.

967
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 2: And I think Spurs have gotten led off by the

968
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 2: fact that they played Forest Wolves in Southampton, who you

969
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 2: could argue are like three of the worst teams in

970
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:40,359
Speaker 2: the league at creating chances and direct opportunities. Right now,

971
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: they get a west Ham team who like, yeah, they're

972
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,439
Speaker 2: really bad, and I agree that they peaked, they looked

973
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: terrible this year, but they are at home and they

974
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 2: have better attacking players than all those three teams I

975
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 2: just mentioned who failed to score or you know, scored

976
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 2: against Spurs early in the game but really just couldn't

977
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,320
Speaker 2: quite find the pass to get the shot the finish

978
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 2: the header. Like you know, there's a couple of chances

979
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: where you know, Larisse was beaten and the ball went

980
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 2: just wide of the posts. Those kind of little things

981
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: where it feels like Spurs are due to conceive more

982
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 2: goals right now. And you're looking at west Ham and

983
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 2: yes they've struggled to create chances, but you still look

984
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 2: at their ex g versus their actual and they've been

985
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 2: unlucky too. So I do think west Ham will scoring

986
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 2: this match, and I think they're going to be live

987
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: to get a point, you know, even at home. So again,

988
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 2: I just think Spurs are teetering a little bit and

989
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 2: the midfield and the defense just don't look quite right.

990
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 2: Romero is probably still out. I think that's a big

991
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 2: loss for Spurs. They don't have a good passing center

992
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 2: back on the pitch when it's dire Sanchez and Davies,

993
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 2: they don't have a good passing center back and I

994
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,839
Speaker 2: think that makes a big difference trying to get through

995
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 2: these teams, trying to play out and keep possession, because

996
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 2: what kept happening today was like you said, you know,

997
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 2: Forrest was actually disrupting spurs ability to complete passes and

998
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 2: work out to create those counters and eventually you know

999
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 2: they're going to break through. It's not even Forest, but

1000
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 2: west Ham are a better team and so I think

1001
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 2: Surr're gonna have.

1002
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 1: Some issues, right.

1003
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,919
Speaker 3: I will move to three pm on Wednesday, Liverpool minus

1004
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 3: three hundred against Newcastle eight to one on the money line,

1005
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 3: the dress plus four twenty five bet three six five.

1006
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 3: A little bit of an injury crisis at both teams here,

1007
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 3: as Newcastle will be without Allenca, Maximam, Colum Wilson, Bruno Gimmerish.

1008
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 3: We don't know about Alexander Eshak. Liverpool we know their

1009
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 3: injury issues. I still think they're vulnerable. I still think

1010
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 3: the midfield is a bit of an issue. It's going

1011
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 3: to be Virgil and whoever Jurgon wants to put back

1012
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: there with him with it, Djokohomes or or whoever. But

1013
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 3: I still think you're getting a good enough number here

1014
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:38,960
Speaker 3: to make Liverpool prove it. Are they good enough to

1015
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 3: be minus three hundred with both teams having serious lineup issues?

1016
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 3: BJ your thoughts here?

1017
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually taking Liverpool minus one and a half.

1018
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 1: You know, I really wanted to bet them even before

1019
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 1: the nine to nothing, you know, nine nothing whatever like

1020
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 1: it happened. Yeah, I mean I'm a square. That's fine.

1021
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 1: I'll be square. I'll square out for this one. What

1022
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 1: you have with Newcastle And you know I've mentioned this

1023
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: many times, but from the January transferred to On last season,

1024
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: they were the worst team at playing through pres year

1025
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 1: their offensive pass per defensive action we're at seven point five.

1026
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: That was the worst in the Premier League. This season they'

1027
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 1: around the middle of the table at through four matches

1028
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: they're at ten point two. But they've played Wolves and

1029
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 1: they've played Nottingham Forest, who are two of the worst

1030
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: pressing teams in the Premier League. If you look at

1031
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 1: the matches against Brighton, Brighton had a pass per defensive

1032
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: action of six point two City had a pass per

1033
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 1: defensive action of six point eight. Liverpool, even though they

1034
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: haven't had Thiago for pretty much the entire season except

1035
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,360
Speaker 1: for the first fifty one minutes of the first match,

1036
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: they're still number one in the Premier League and passes

1037
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,800
Speaker 1: per defensive action and we all know about like you

1038
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 1: already mentioned the Newcastle injuries I think are quite drastic.

1039
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: When you lose gamare Saint Maximum and Wilson and most

1040
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: likely know Alexander Ishak. Where are the goals coming from

1041
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 1: for Newcastle in this match? Are they going to be

1042
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 1: similarly like they did against against Brighton where they have

1043
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: to basically just sit deep and take no shots and

1044
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: just hope that they can get a one, you know,

1045
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 1: a zero zero draw, maybe just one nil, which is

1046
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 1: what happened when they played Liverpool towards the end of

1047
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: last season. I mean, Liverpool completely dominated them at Saint

1048
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,879
Speaker 1: James Park. They we only won one nothing, but XG

1049
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 1: was two point three to point two and Liverpool outshot

1050
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 1: them twenty four to four. Since the January transfer to Newcastle,

1051
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 1: they've faced six Big Six sides, They've created five point

1052
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: eight expected goals and they've allowed twelve point six, So

1053
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,919
Speaker 1: I think this is a horrible matchup for Newcastle. They're

1054
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: gonna have to basically sit defensive. I don't know where

1055
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: the attacking threats are coming from with all their injuries

1056
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: right now. So to Liverpool spread projected at minus one

1057
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 1: point seventy five, so I'm taking them minus one and

1058
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: a half at minus one fourteen at bet three sixty five.

1059
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 3: The offensive threat is Chris Woods.

1060
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: Not Ryan Frasierer.

1061
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, he doesn't miss. He doesn't miss the direct kicks anymore. Anthony,

1062
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 3: you called BJ a square? Does that mean you're going

1063
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 3: for the Magpies here?

1064
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 2: No easy pass. I would have been on Newcastle probably,

1065
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 2: but with all the injuries, I'm concerned about gem RaSE.

1066
00:46:58,200 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 2: They're not gonna able to hold up in the midfield

1067
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,319
Speaker 2: without him. As much as I love the Joe Linton

1068
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:05,359
Speaker 2: revolution and the main counter attacking, you know, duo of

1069
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 2: Saint Maximin and Wilson, who I think can cause a

1070
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: ton of problems can't if they're not in the match.

1071
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 2: So this is an easy pass for me.

1072
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:15,839
Speaker 3: Thursday, the Midweek Slate maps up with it. This one

1073
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 3: is hilarious. Leicester plus two forty at home against Manchester

1074
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 3: United plus one oh five the draw us plus two

1075
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: to eighty. No team is unbettable. I mean, if you're

1076
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 3: listening to this podcast, you just heard us talk for

1077
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 3: eight minutes about Boardmouth who plus nine to nothing. But

1078
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 3: Leicester are very close to being unbettable. But this is

1079
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 3: a good spot to back the Foxes, I think, and

1080
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 3: you're getting them in a very very much a bi

1081
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 3: low spot. You're selling high on United after two wins,

1082
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 3: one of which was impressive, one of which I think

1083
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 3: was a little lucky on the road at Southampton. And

1084
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 3: I think this is last chance saloon for Brendan Rodgers.

1085
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 3: So if he is going to get that performance out

1086
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 3: of his team before he's sacked, it's got to come now.

1087
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 3: So there is some urgency at Leicester. I think the

1088
00:47:56,280 --> 00:48:00,359
Speaker 3: Wesley Fafona situation being resolved is a helpful situation as well.

1089
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,879
Speaker 3: So it's a numbers plate you don't want to bet Lester.

1090
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 3: They've been terrible all season, Leicester City forty to one

1091
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:09,800
Speaker 3: for to be last place at Christmas. That bet is live, Anthony.

1092
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 3: Your thoughts here at United in the.

1093
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 2: Foxes, Yeah, you know, the last Christmas and the first

1094
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:19,720
Speaker 2: manager fired are live. But I can't can't bet United,

1095
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: and I don't want to bet Lester if I have

1096
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 2: to bet, like I this is a really tough match

1097
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: for me because normally in this situation I would have

1098
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 2: no problem taking Leicester plus a half given the number.

1099
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 2: And I do think this is a good by low spot.

1100
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 2: You know, we try to say we bet numbers, not teams,

1101
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 2: but Vardy did have a nice little lively stretch in

1102
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 2: the second half once they were up a man, but

1103
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 2: prior to that there was nothing. I mean he had.

1104
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 2: He took two shots in the first two hundred and

1105
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 2: seventy minutes of the season, so I'm really concerned about

1106
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:54,280
Speaker 2: this attack. I think United has clearly taken a step

1107
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 2: forward in its defending. You know, I understand the conceded

1108
00:48:57,960 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 2: chances to Southampton, but it did feel like they were

1109
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 2: able to get bodies behind the ball more the central

1110
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 2: Martinez definitely looks like a capable Premier League defender, which

1111
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 2: I wasn't sure about, you know, when he came over

1112
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 2: from i Ax. So I think United is turning the

1113
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 2: corner a little bit. They're they're they're fine, but this

1114
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:17,839
Speaker 2: really comes down to how bad do you think less

1115
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: really is? And given how low I was on them

1116
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 2: early in the season. I can't just come around and

1117
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 2: bet them here, so I'm passing BJCB Benham.

1118
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, this United team, they're a bunch of frauds. Like

1119
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 1: this is this is crazy.

1120
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 2: There we go.

1121
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 1: So I mean, listen, Anthony, Yes, they won one. Nothing.

1122
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 1: I don't think they're turning a corner at all. I

1123
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 1: think they're actually taking a step backwards defensively. They allowed

1124
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:44,280
Speaker 1: forty seven touches from Southampton and their penalty area. That's insane,

1125
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 1: that's horrible. They're not getting better, They're getting worse. And listen,

1126
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: this is my I have to I mean, I've I've

1127
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 1: yelled about United so many times. I just feel like

1128
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 1: I'm repeating myself over and over and this thing under

1129
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 1: ted Hog. It could get better and they could turn

1130
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,320
Speaker 1: this corner and they could turn into this great team.

1131
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 1: But they're supposed to under ten Hog if you were

1132
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 1: given his same system at i AX, which is heavy

1133
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: reliant on them being pressing in the opponent's final third.

1134
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 1: They had one high turnover against Southampton one Lester. Say

1135
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,240
Speaker 1: what you will about them, but they were actually top

1136
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 1: seven at playing through pressure last year and United I

1137
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: said it last week. This was their first win since

1138
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: February twentieth on the road. They've scored three goals in

1139
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 1: their last nine matches away from home. This team is

1140
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: a bunch of frauds. Okay, as currently instructed. If they

1141
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 1: get better players to get Anthony, you know, they might

1142
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: get a little better. But yeah, I'm playing Lester, but

1143
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,280
Speaker 1: I'm playing on plus half a goal at minus one eighteen.

1144
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: You wait for the underdog section. You might hear me

1145
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 1: play them there as well. I mean, they've been they

1146
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 1: have a very We've said it many times. They're very

1147
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 1: lame duck feel around them. They have been unlucky defensively.

1148
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:47,439
Speaker 1: It's mainly bad goalkeeping. But you know they've allowed ten

1149
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: goals of a five point six expected you know, so

1150
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 1: those Lester unders might be coming soon, Anthony.

1151
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, of course, yet getting I'm getting there.

1152
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:57,879
Speaker 1: Of course I'm playing. I'm going to fade United at

1153
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:02,240
Speaker 1: every single turn until they show something of turning the corner.

1154
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 1: But forty seven touches in the penalty area that's not

1155
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: turning a corner. That's getting worse. So I'm playing Lester.

1156
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 2: May Or may not have a side bet with a

1157
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:13,279
Speaker 2: friend over under a number of times BJ Cunningham. That's

1158
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:15,799
Speaker 2: against Manchester United in this season so far we are

1159
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 2: five four five. What's the over under twenty three and

1160
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 2: a half.

1161
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 1: Oh, it's way going over. If it continues as it is,

1162
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 1: it's going to be thirty eight Anthony Well, I.

1163
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 3: Mean, here's the interesting thing about the match with Southampton

1164
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 3: was I think was Walker Peters towards the end of

1165
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 3: the match, right like he had a half volley that

1166
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,719
Speaker 3: that missed the post by like that much that goes

1167
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 3: in the conversation hold.

1168
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 1: One possession against Southampton, right, Ben Hobbles possession dominant.

1169
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 2: I ax, this team is not mean le Leicester is

1170
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 2: worse than Southampton. They are, but I mean, I mean,

1171
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 2: and the mine's the same, so how like how much worse?

1172
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 2: That's where I am on this right. I don't think

1173
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,239
Speaker 2: that I liked Southampton last week. I thought they deserve

1174
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 2: to point out of that. I didn't get it. But like,

1175
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 2: I think Lester is worse, and so I must have

1176
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 2: really loved Southampton to even think about betting United essentially

1177
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 2: the same number here. I think Lester is worse than Southampton.

1178
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 2: I their midfield is worse and they just played two

1179
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 2: weeks ago. Dominated a lot of that match, So yeah,

1180
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 2: I think I think frauds we've made not know where

1181
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 2: the bottom is on Lester yet?

1182
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 1: Do we know where the bottom is Ununited?

1183
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 3: Oh? I think we saw I think we saw it

1184
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 3: the Brent.

1185
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 2: Hey, I kicked it into his own net twice, So

1186
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 2: I think, all right, I'll give you guys that one.

1187
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, all right, let's move to Syria. Syria are

1188
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 3: both in action, Anthony. What's your favorite bet in Italy?

1189
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 2: I like sam Dooria plus a half at home. They

1190
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 2: just got pasted by sour Nitana and you know, anytime

1191
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 2: that happens, uh, you know you got to run and

1192
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 2: bet them the next match. But really, this this comes

1193
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,680
Speaker 2: down to Lotzio, who bj does it every week? I

1194
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 2: have that actually faded them this season in any way,

1195
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 2: shape or form. But I'm hopping in here. It's a

1196
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:59,439
Speaker 2: weird midweek spot for them. Huge win against Inter last

1197
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 2: week at home. Now they're on the road. They are

1198
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,399
Speaker 2: a little bit overvalued. I lean toward the under as well,

1199
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 2: but Sanmtoria just played Juventus and had a pretty impressive

1200
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 2: showing defensively in that match. I think they can keep

1201
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 2: Latzio at bay here and you know, try to get

1202
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 2: a one one draw type thing or maybe even steal

1203
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 2: a result. But I do think Lolatzio is overvalued. First

1204
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 2: time this year, I'm fading them, So you know, BJ,

1205
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 2: I'm willing to join the party.

1206
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll get in on it.

1207
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 1: It's gotta stop. It's gotta stop.

1208
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 2: It's gotta stop.

1209
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:29,919
Speaker 3: The best kits maybe in all of Europe Sampatoria every year, BJ,

1210
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:31,480
Speaker 3: what do you have for us in Italy?

1211
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going Roma team's total over two and a

1212
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 1: half at even money at bet three sixty five. They're

1213
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 1: taking on Monza. If you're following in the app or

1214
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: e've been honestly listening to this podcast, you know that

1215
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:43,160
Speaker 1: I've faded Manza all three weeks and it has paid

1216
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,960
Speaker 1: off because I spoke about it on our previews show,

1217
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: I've been writing about it. Monza in the Second Division

1218
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:51,480
Speaker 1: last season conceded one point four to five x G

1219
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,760
Speaker 1: per ninety teams coming up from the Second Division to Syria.

1220
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 1: I see a thirty six and a half percent increase

1221
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,399
Speaker 1: on their expectacles allowed, which means that Manza coming into

1222
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 1: season I had them projected allowing one point ninety eight

1223
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,919
Speaker 1: x sheeper match well. So far through three matches, they've

1224
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 1: conceded seven point one expected goals. They had nine big

1225
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 1: scoring chances against Torino, Napoli and Udinesse. That is horrible.

1226
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 1: And they are playing really open like once they go down,

1227
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: like they're opening up the match and it just becomes

1228
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: full fledged chaos. And they're facing a ROMA offense that

1229
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 1: have played Kreminesse beat them one, nothing created three point

1230
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:28,959
Speaker 1: three expected goals, beat Salernitana won nothing created two point

1231
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: seven expected goals. This is the top five offense from

1232
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 1: last year, third and big scoring chances. So I'm going

1233
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: to back my guy Jose Mourinho, and I think this

1234
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 1: has big time blow up potential. If you want to

1235
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: take an old spread on Roma two, I think that's

1236
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 1: worth to play as well. For me, this just has

1237
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:45,840
Speaker 1: blow out written all over it. So Roma team total

1238
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 1: over two and a half at even money and.

1239
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 3: That brings US two League two. Anthony, you haven't played

1240
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 3: for US in France this week.

1241
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 2: I didn't last week on the pod and I ended

1242
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: up betting some Monaco and some Nie to varying degrees

1243
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 2: of success. But this week I do like Strasburg at

1244
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 2: home this is a great bylaw on Strasbourg. This is

1245
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 2: a team I thought had a chance to finish in

1246
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 2: the top four. I know Bja is also a fan

1247
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 2: of strassbook, but now they're minus one ten at home

1248
00:55:09,160 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 2: against non Twitch. You know, I've faded in two of

1249
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:13,279
Speaker 2: their three matches to this point. I'm gonna fade them again.

1250
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 2: I continue to think that they are bound for a

1251
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 2: ton of aggression this year, and they have not won

1252
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: a match either. But I do think Strasbourg they're much

1253
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 2: better than their even their underlying numbers and their actual

1254
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:24,799
Speaker 2: performances and results indicate. I think this is a good

1255
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,440
Speaker 2: get right home spotj.

1256
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:31,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Montpellier and Jacquesio under two and a

1257
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 1: half goals at minus won twenty five. Montpelier just beats

1258
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: Breast seven nothing today and those seven goals were off

1259
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 1: of two point two expected. So far this season, Montpellier

1260
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 1: matches have featured twenty two goals off of eleven point

1261
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 1: seven expected. So I'm thinking some aggression is gonna come

1262
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 1: at some point, hopefully, and I hope it's going to

1263
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:57,200
Speaker 1: be in this match at Jacksio. Listen, they've been dealt

1264
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 1: actually a pretty brutal schedule to start the season. They

1265
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 1: opened up against Leon in the opening weekend. They lost

1266
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 1: to one, only allowed one point five XG. Then they

1267
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 1: had to play Lens, only allowed point nine x G.

1268
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 1: Then Ren again only one point two x G, and

1269
00:56:11,640 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 1: then they just played little and only allowed one point

1270
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 1: three x G. So this defense is actually halfway decent.

1271
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 1: And that's what they were in the second Division last year.

1272
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 1: They only allowed one point zero one x g per nineties.

1273
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:26,280
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna bet on some offensive regression from hot Pilier.

1274
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 1: And you know, from a projection standpoint, I only have

1275
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: you know, two point one goals projected, so I like

1276
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:34,399
Speaker 1: under two and half gold minus one twenty five.

1277
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 3: That wraps up Syria and League oh, which brings us

1278
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 3: to our favorite part of the program, our three leg

1279
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 3: money line underdog parlay. Like I said before, plus six

1280
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 3: units if you had bet every underdog individually, a whole

1281
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:53,319
Speaker 3: lot of pain if you only parlay, then like I do, DJ,

1282
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 3: what's your favorite pooch in the Premier League this weekend?

1283
00:56:56,800 --> 00:56:58,760
Speaker 1: Lees year plus two forty. I mean it's just I've

1284
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,280
Speaker 1: already yelled about it. I want I'll save the listeners

1285
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 1: their ears and they're hearing. But I mean it's just

1286
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:06,879
Speaker 1: it's just time. It's just it continues to be time

1287
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: to fade this United team who is really showing no

1288
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:12,560
Speaker 1: improvements defensively. So Leicester plus two forty.

1289
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 3: This morning, when I started to get gather my thoughts

1290
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 3: for this podcast, the two underdogs that came to my

1291
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 3: mind first Leicester City and the one Anthony's gonna.

1292
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 2: Pick Cherries plus two seventy five at home. Wolves are

1293
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 2: too bad to be this big of a favorite on

1294
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 2: the road against anybody in the prem and so I

1295
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 2: will be on the cherries at home. A little bit

1296
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:32,439
Speaker 2: of a sprinkle on the money line.

1297
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 3: I mean, the enthusiasm, man is just seeping out of you.

1298
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 3: That's how much forward.

1299
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 2: They don't have a ton of matches to choose from

1300
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:43,040
Speaker 2: this week, but look, I love I love the number.

1301
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: I don't love the team. I love the numbers. So

1302
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 2: here I am for me. It's ever I hate the

1303
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 2: team for the record, Did they suck?

1304
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 3: No, you don't hate them.

1305
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 2: On Wednesday they will not. They will be. They will

1306
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 2: be Kings. They have Europe. They have a chance to

1307
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 2: move up in your They could be I mean, they

1308
00:57:57,080 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 2: could be in the top half of the table if

1309
00:57:58,280 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 2: they win.

1310
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 3: I know that's hilarious. I like Everydton plus two thirty

1311
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 3: against Leeds. I think the matchup suits Everdon, who should

1312
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 3: be getting a striker in the lineup for the first

1313
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 3: time the season in Neil MOPI all due respect to

1314
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 3: Solomon ron Done, I should say a Premier League striker.

1315
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 3: I think that should put everybody in the right spot

1316
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 3: in their lineup. And like Anthony said before, the matchup

1317
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 3: could suit Everden here as Leeds could have some trouble

1318
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 3: breaking down a team that's just going to sit into

1319
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 3: low blocks and defend like hell. So give me the

1320
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 3: Toffees on the road for their first win of the season.

1321
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 3: All right, let's now wrap it up with our favorite

1322
00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:38,040
Speaker 3: bets in the Premier League in the midweek. Anthony, what's yours?

1323
00:58:38,400 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: Wournemouth plus a half at home minus one thirty And

1324
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 2: I just talked about it in the money Line segment.

1325
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 2: I just talked about it earlier on the show. This

1326
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 2: really comes down to the fact that on opening day

1327
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 2: of the season, aston Villa was projected to be a

1328
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:53,920
Speaker 2: top ten team and they were about this number on

1329
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 2: the road at Bournemouth three weeks later. Wolves, who are

1330
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 2: projected to be in the bottom six are now the

1331
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 2: same number against Bournemouth. A lot of that comes from

1332
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 2: Bournemouth looking really, really bad against top three teams, and

1333
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 2: look that matters, right. You have to downgrade Bournemouth off

1334
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 2: of those three performances where they got absolutely destroyed. But

1335
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 2: they did look competent in the match against Villa and

1336
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 2: Wolves have not created more than one point one expect

1337
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:20,919
Speaker 2: goals in any match, so I'm fitting Wolves. I'm taking

1338
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 2: Bournemouth at home plus half.

1339
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 3: My favorite bet this week is the Arsenal Acid Villa

1340
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 3: under two and a half at plus one ten. Aston

1341
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 3: Villa have created one point oh six expected goals on

1342
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 3: average the season, and if you take out the Everton match,

1343
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 3: it slashes in basically in half. That was the only

1344
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 3: time that they put up even close to respectable number.

1345
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 3: They're coming off a match where they created point three

1346
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 3: expected goals at home against west Ham, and the teams

1347
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 3: they've played are I mean this, we were talking about

1348
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 3: a lot of early schedules stuff Bournemouth, Everton Palace and

1349
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 3: west Ham and you're putting up these kind of offensive

1350
00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:55,640
Speaker 3: numbers against those four when you're going to take now,

1351
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 3: you're going to take on one of the best early

1352
00:59:57,640 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 3: season defenses that we've seen in the Premier League this

1353
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 3: season in Arsenal. I think this has all the recipes

1354
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:04,240
Speaker 3: for a two nothing win for Arsenal and we'll keep

1355
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 3: this game under the total. So give me the under

1356
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 3: it plus money plus one ten at bet three six

1357
01:00:09,400 --> 01:00:11,520
Speaker 3: five BJ. What's your favorite bet?

1358
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Bournemouth Wolves. Both teams to score no

1359
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 1: at even money Bournemouth Anthony match. This team has been

1360
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:21,919
Speaker 1: horrific offensively. Granted, they've played a really tough schedule. They've

1361
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 1: had to play Arsenal, they've had to play City and

1362
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 1: they had to play Liverpool, but in their first four

1363
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 1: matches they've created point eight x chief open play. They

1364
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 1: have twenty one shots and only nineteen box centuries. That

1365
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:36,880
Speaker 1: is pathetic. But Wolves hasn't been much better. Only three

1366
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,800
Speaker 1: point nine expected goals for them, only four point four

1367
01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 1: expected threat and they only have twenty three shots from

1368
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:44,959
Speaker 1: inside the penalty area. The only team in the Premier

1369
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 1: League that has less than that well is their opponent

1370
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 1: Bourne Myth. The Wolves has twenty eight shots from outside

1371
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 1: the box, that leads the Premier League, so they're just

1372
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:55,520
Speaker 1: getting a ton of low quality chances right now. I

1373
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:57,920
Speaker 1: mean defensively, Wolves has been okay, though a lot better

1374
01:00:57,920 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 1: than they were last year. You know, only three point

1375
01:00:59,480 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 1: three expect goes a loud from over played before the

1376
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 1: Newcastle match on Sunday, and Wolves was able to hold

1377
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent possession against both leads and Fullham side.

1378
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:10,640
Speaker 1: Assuming they're going to control a lot of the possession here,

1379
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 1: I feel like this is going to be a very

1380
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 1: boring type of match that will hopefully end in a

1381
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 1: Bournemouth one nothing win. But I like both team to

1382
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:20,560
Speaker 1: score score no at even money.

1383
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:24,920
Speaker 3: That wraps up this midweek episode of Wonderful Soccer Betting

1384
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network, now presented to you by

1385
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:31,240
Speaker 3: bet three six y five for Anthony Dubundo for bj Cunningham,

1386
01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 3: Michael Lee buff We wish you the best of luck

1387
01:01:33,520 --> 01:01:36,640
Speaker 3: with all your bets during the midweek, except if you're

1388
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 3: betting against Bournemouth up the Cherries.