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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single.

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Speaker 2: Best Idea, What a Rich Tuesday. It was some really

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Speaker 2: good conversations. Amy wi Silverman, RBC Capital Markets on what

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Speaker 2: the cross moments, variants, Kurtosis, what they mean, Datian Sassa

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Speaker 2: are in for Paul Sweeney talking about planty Kurtotic distributions.

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Speaker 2: All sorts of fancy talk, but also some really basic talk,

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Speaker 2: and of course that means ed Yard Denny. It's been

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Speaker 2: one of the great bull market calls here. He's had

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Speaker 2: him for decades from his work from CJ. Lawrence on

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Speaker 2: ed Yard Denny. I can't say enough about his market newsletter.

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Speaker 2: It's very, very reasonably priced. Look for that quick take,

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Speaker 2: I think is what it's called. I can't remember right now,

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Speaker 2: but the ed Yard Denny newsletter. Look for it out

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Speaker 2: on the internet. It's really quite something. And he's very optimistic.

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Speaker 2: He looks and he's got a range. But if you

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Speaker 2: go to the top of his range out fourteen months,

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Speaker 2: end of twenty twenty six, end of twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 2: that's out there, you know, two years and more than

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Speaker 2: fourteen months. He's got now fifty thousand is where he's looking.

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Speaker 2: I think very few people are framing that here's and

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Speaker 2: you're dunny on the loneliness of the uber bowl.

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Speaker 3: Well, I don't feel that lonely. I think there's certainly

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Speaker 3: more people that are optimistic about the outlook for the

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Speaker 3: economy there were back in twenty twenty two. In early

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two and through twenty twenty three, we work

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Speaker 3: pretty lonely with the idea that there wouldn't be a recession,

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Speaker 3: and that was definitely a contrary call, because, look, it

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Speaker 3: was logical to expect that with the FED raising interest

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Speaker 3: rates from a FED funds rate of zero to five

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Speaker 3: andred quarter percent, that that kind of tightening would cause

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Speaker 3: a recession. We argued that we were in enrolling recessions

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Speaker 3: and we're impacting the various sectors of the economy without

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Speaker 3: taking us down. And we argued that the consumer was

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Speaker 3: fundamentally resilient, that this idea that they'd run out of

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Speaker 3: excess savings missed the point that there were what's seventy

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Speaker 3: million baby boomers with seventy five trillion dollars of retirement

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Speaker 3: assets and the retiring.

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Speaker 2: Ed Jardnny for an extended conversation today as well. It

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Speaker 2: was Michael Darta of mkm roth and Michael Darta, I'm

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Speaker 2: just going to say, is a congenital optimist, and he's

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Speaker 2: very cautious right now, particularly within all the series. He

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Speaker 2: looks at and diminished nominal GDP pushing against your Denny.

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Speaker 2: Michael Darta is looking at the rapidity the first derivative

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Speaker 2: of the rising of the unemployment rate Michael Darta on

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Speaker 2: your unemployment.

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Speaker 4: Rate or ninety basis points off the cyclical trough and

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Speaker 4: the unemployment rate. That has never happened in history, with

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Speaker 4: the unemployment rate just leveling off instead of going up

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Speaker 4: at least several hundred basis points. So if you're going

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Speaker 4: with history, you know that's telling you that whatever the cause,

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Speaker 4: whether it's the labor force grow growing more quickly or

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Speaker 4: hiring weakening, it's both. Frankly, you know that those things

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Speaker 4: tend to persist for a while. And especially I think

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Speaker 4: if the FED is now getting pressure, I mean, what's

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Speaker 4: the consensus view. The consensus view is that they're going

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Speaker 4: to do too much. They're going to cut you know,

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Speaker 4: too fast and lower rates too much. I think I

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Speaker 4: actually think that's incorrect, and that's how you get into

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Speaker 4: a condition where this landing slips away from the Fed.

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Speaker 2: Michael Darta there with Roth talking about a rising unemployment rate.

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Speaker 2: I merely must say the convexity, the curve higher of

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rate speaks volumes something. Or Chris Claudia Sum's

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Speaker 2: let on with her important work, some would say controversial

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Speaker 2: work as well. One of the joys is we had

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Speaker 2: a greyfeld side and Katy Greefeld was scheduled to be

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Speaker 2: with us at the olymp She is a world class.

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Speaker 2: To say horseback rider shows my ignorance. It is called dressage.

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Speaker 2: It's the fancy like the dancing of the horses, and

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Speaker 2: they do it at the Olympics. And of course she

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Speaker 2: went over to the Olympics to see what she's so

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Speaker 2: good at, and she was in a studio today. We

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Speaker 2: couldn't get her at the Olympics. People wouldn't let us

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Speaker 2: talk to her during the Olympics. But Katheryn Greifeld showed

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Speaker 2: up today. Here's Katy Greifeld on horses dancing.

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Speaker 5: Definitely, there's a sweet spot. It's not like racing, for example,

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Speaker 5: where you have two three year old's four year olds

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Speaker 5: on the track. I mean it is skill based, so

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Speaker 5: it takes a while to learn, so probably the sweet

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Speaker 5: spot is, you know, seven to twelve years.

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Speaker 2: So if they go dancing dancing to the left, what

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Speaker 2: do you do? Give them a carrot?

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Speaker 5: No, it's it's kind of like pilates, which is an

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Speaker 5: insane thing to say, but basically, when you're applying an aid,

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Speaker 5: you have to then rely the aid. Where you get

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Speaker 5: into trouble is if you just hold the horse there

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Speaker 5: they're looking for.

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Speaker 2: That's what sparted us with me on radio Katie Greifelt,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for me. Where else, folks, do

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Speaker 2: you get economics, finance, investment, international relations and horses dancing that?

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Speaker 2: She said, they do pilates with the horses, something like that.

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Speaker 2: Katheryn Griffeld the open look for that at nine am

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Television as well. I want to review this. I

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Speaker 2: think it's very important. First of all for all of

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Speaker 2: you in New England. A major change September three. We're

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Speaker 2: going to ninety two nine FM Bloomberg at ninety two

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Speaker 2: nine FM in Boston. Really really excited about that. It'll

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Speaker 2: be the same power signal that we have at ninety

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Speaker 2: nine to one in Washington, so really excited about that.

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Speaker 2: We're out on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts out at YouTube.

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Speaker 2: It's growing each day. Good morning and good evening. I

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Speaker 2: should say to the Pacific RAM we're humbled by the

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Speaker 2: international audience we're developing there as well, and of course

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Speaker 2: on Android Auto worldwide and Apple car Play worldwide as well,

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Speaker 2: on Apple podcasts. This is single best idea.

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Speaker 5: M M.